Washington Capitals: A ONE point afternoon -- Game 62: Flyers 5 - Capitals 4 (OT)

And that, dear reader, is called “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”

The Washington Capitals seemed to have things safely in hand this afternoon against the Philadelphia Flyers at Verizon Center.  The Caps dominated the first period, taking a 2-1 lead 14 minutes into the game and carrying that to the first intermission.  In the second period, despite being outshot 14-9, the Caps won the period by another 2-1 margin, carrying a 4-2 lead into the third period.

All the Caps had to do in the third period was play with poise and not be stupid.

They did neither.  The Flyers scored twice in the last 8:02 of the game to tie the score, one of the goals coming on a major power play, courtesy of Dmitry Orlov’s major boarding penalty against Brayden Schenn, the other goal coming with just 65 seconds in regulation after the Flyers pulled their goalie. 

Then, 2:45 into the extra session, Vincent Lecavalier put the Caps out of their misery with what would have been a harmless enough wrist shot except for apparently nicking defenseman Karl Alzner on the way through.  It was just enough to allow the puck to elude goalie Braden Holtby’s glove, and a game that looked to be in the bank for the Caps at 2:30 p.m. was a loss by 3:30, a 5-4 Flyers overtime win.

It was an especially cruel turn of events for Capitals defenseman Dmitry Orlov, who got the Caps going with a goal 6:06 into the first period.  After some relentless forechecking pressure, then puck control by the Caps in the Flyers’ end, Troy Brouwer laid the puck back for Orlov from behind the Flyers’ goal line, and Orlov stepped into a slap shot that beat goalie Steve Mason on the far side, high over his blocker.

After Claude Giroux tied the game five minutes later, it was Marcus Johansson’s turn, this time darting in from the weak side of the play to the top of the crease to redirect a centering feed from Jason Chimera over Mason’s right pad.  That was the way the first period would end.

In the second period, Adam Hall scored a shorthanded goal at 12:50 after a ghastly turnover by Alex Ovechkin.  With the puck sliding deep into the Caps’ end of the ice, Ovechkin misread the intentions of teammate John Carlson trailing him and to his left.  Ovechkin left the puck for Carlson at the side of the Washington net to Holtby’s right, but not with enough sauce for the puck to get to Carlson, who had circled wider than Ovechkin seemed to anticipate.  The misstep was enough for Sean Couturier to gather the puck as he was circling around the net from the other direction, beating Carlson to the biscuit.  Continuing up the left wing wall Couturier found Hall skating down the middle and hit him for what would be an uncontested shot from the high slot that Hall fired past Holtby.

Jay Beagle got that one back less than two minutes later by finishing up a 3-on-2 break.  Mike Green had the puck skating down the right side, and when Claude Giroux mistimed a slide to try to interrupt a Green pass to the middle, the puck found its way into a clot of bodies in front of Mason.  It popped out to Mason’s right where Beagle was by himself.  With not much less than an empty net to shoot at, Beagle capitalized, and the Caps had a 3-2 advantage.

Less than three minutes later, Orlov notched his second of the game.  He and Mike Green played catch with the puck at the top of the Flyers’ zone as the play unwound.  Having stepped around Steve Downie to give himself room once already in the sequence, Orlov took a return pass from Green and took advantage of Downie having backed in on defense.  Orlov let it rip from the top of the zone, and with Joel Ward and Jason Chimera causing havoc in front of the Flyers’ net, Mason never saw the shot as it sped by him to give the Caps a two-goal lead.

It would be the most dangerous lead in hockey, it turns out, at least on this day. A great day for Orlov turned sour when he lined up Brayden Schenn and hit him in the nameplate on the back of his jersey, driving him into the boards, resulting in a five-minute major.  The Flyers scored only once on the extended power play, a goal by Jakub Voracek, but the momentum the Caps had was gone.  It would be the Flyers who dominated late, eventually scoring the last three goals of the contest to steal two points that the Caps thought they had safely tucked away.

Other stuff…

-- Yes, Claude Giroux’ goal was a goal, it rimmed around the top inside post of the goal; it did not hit a pipe or the crossbar.  As for the disallowed goal off the stick of Nicklas Backstrom at the other end, that was purely a case of the default call – that being “no goal” called on the ice – lacking conclusive evidence to overturn it.  Good teams shrug those sorts of thing off.

-- Orlov took his boarding call at the 9:33 mark of the third period.  After that point the Flyers outshot the Caps over the rest of the game by a 13-0 margin, scoring three goals in the process.  The Capitals did not record a shot on goal over the last 14:52 of the contest. 

-- The Caps dominated the first period, outshooting the Flyers, 17-6, and out-attempting them, 32-14.  After that, the Flyers outshot the Caps, 30-12, and out attempted them by an almost unbelievable 62-20 margin.

-- Washington was 0-for-6 on the power play.  That matches their worst output at home this season, an 0-for-6 power play in a 1-0 loss to the New York Islanders on February 4^th.

-- On the other side, it was the third straight game in which the Caps allowed at least one power play goal.  The Flyers went 2-for-4, including the Voracek goal on the extended power play.

-- Alex Ovechkin had ten shot attempts in the first 18:06 of the game (five shots on goal, two misses, three shots blocked).  He had five shot attempts over the final 44:39 (one shot on goal, three misses, one blocked shot).

-- It was a bad afternoon for the top defensive pair.  Karl Alzner was on ice for three goals against, John Carlson for four.  For good measure, Ovechkin was on ice for three goals against to lead, so to speak, the forwards.  Oddly enough, the third pair – John Erskine and Connor Carrick – was not on ice for any goals against.

-- Mike Green had his first three-assist game since getting three helpers in a 7-4 win over Ottawa on Feburary 1, 2009.

-- For Dmitry Orlov, it was the first two-goal game of his career in his 100^th NHL game.  Geez, did it have to be a major penalty to undo what should have been a memorable game… in a good way?

-- Until Orlov’s major penalty, it looked as if Steve Downie might end up being the Flyers’ goat for the game… four minor penalties taken in barely ten minutes of ice time.  Had the Caps converted any of those power play chances…

In the end…

That is where the problem lies in this game, the ineffectiveness of the power play, not Orlov’s major.  The Caps had three power plays in the first period, giving them a chance to end the competitive portion of the afternoon early.  As it was, the Caps allowed the Flyers to sneak out of what was, for them, a poor first period down only a single goal.

The Caps let the Flyers off the hook, and then when confronted with adversity in the third period by Orlov’s penalty, they folded.  It just does not seem to be in this team’s DNA to be able to either: a) stand on an opponent’s throat with a ruthless attitude toward closing them out, or b) being able to stand up forcefully when a team makes a run.  For 20 minutes the Caps looked like a team that might be turning the corner, a team that might be making that late-season rush that they need to make to reach the playoffs.  For 40 minutes and change after that, they looked like what they have looked like too much this season, an aimless, uninspired club.  It was another game, another standings point given away in a season full of them.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 20

There were two-and-a-half weeks separating Weeks 19 and 20 for the Washington Capitals, but they started Week 20 as they finished Week 19, as winners.  When the Caps won the second game of the week to close Week 20 they matched their longest winning streak of the season at four games. 

Record: 2-0-0

Week 20 was the second consecutive winning week for the Caps, their first consecutive winning weeks since turning the trick in Weeks 11-12.  The win over Florida to open the week had its harrowing moments, the Caps giving up two-goal leads twice before Alex Ovechkin scored the game-winner with less than five minutes in regulation.  It was a game that served as an example of playing down to an opponent.

In the other game of the week the Caps served as an example of playing up to an opponent.  Washington went out to a 3-0 lead on the Atlantic Division-leading Boston Bruins, held off a charge in the middle period, then won going-away, 4-2.  It made the Caps 17-1-2 in games in which they and not their opponents took “the most dangerous lead in hockey,” a two-goal lead.  Given the nature of the Caps schedule in March, it was a welcome win and a welcome week.

Offense:  4.50/game (season: 2.82 / rank: 10th)

Nine goals represented a continuation of improvement in the Caps’ offensive output.  When added to the two games that closed the pre-Olympic portion of the season, the Caps had 16 goals over their previous four games at the end of Week 20.  It was the first time that the Caps scored 16 goals over a four-game period since recording 16 over four games from December 7-13.

Alex Ovechkin led the Caps in goals (3) and points (5) for the week.  Since going four games without a point to close the 2013 portion of the season Ovechkin is 13-11-24 in 19 games since the calendar flipped to a new year.  Nicklas Backstrom had three helpers for the week and finds himself third in the league in assists (48) behind Sidney Crosby (51) and Joe Thornton (50).

John Carlson also had three assists for the week, securing three of the four points registered by defensemen (Dmitry Orlov had an assist). Carlson is 2-7-9 in his last ten games.  No Capitals defenseman recorded a goal this week.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 2.85 / rank: T-21st)

The week’s first game of the week was haunted by a demon that has plagued the Caps all season, dicey play with two-goal leads.  The Caps have had at least one two-goal lead in 22 games this season, including two instances when both they and their opponent held a two-goal lead.  In nine of those games the Caps surrendered two-goal leads.  They did so again this week in their game against Florida, twice in fact, allowing the Panthers to tie the game after taking 2-0 and 4-2 leads.  Fortunately for the Caps, they had Ovechkin, and the Panthers did not.  Ovechkin scored the game-winner with under five minutes remaining for the 5-4 win.  Still, the Caps were fortunate to escape with a win after being out-attempted in shots, 63-43, and out-shot, 34-32, against a team that is 28^th of 30 teams in scoring offense.

The Caps were better against Boston, at least in terms of not surrendering a two-goal lead.  Not that there lacked interesting moments.  After extending a 2-0 lead to 3-0 against the Bruins, Boston scored twice in the second period of Saturday’s game to make things close.  Washington added an insurance goal for the 4-2 win.  Still, Boston out-attempted the Caps in shots, 67-44, and out-shot them, 38-31, including 30-16 at even strength.

Goaltending: 3.02 GAA / .917 SV (season: 2.76 / .916 / 3 SO)

Braden Holtby got both starts this week and it was, as many weeks have been for him this season, uneven.  Complicating the issue was persistent chatter that the Capitals were interested in procuring the services of Buffalo goaltender Ryan Miller.  Perhaps that was a distraction that had something to do with Holtby’s recent performance.  In his last 14 appearances before the start of Week 20, Holtby was 5-5-1 (three no-decisions), 3.29, .887.

Holtby’s first game of the week suffered from weak support in front of him.   That is a lingering problem as well. Still, the four goals allowed by Holtby was the seventh time in 14 appearances in which Holtby played the entire game that he allowed four or more goals, and it does not include a four-goals allowed performance in 39:57 against Carolina in December.

His second game this week was much better.  Holtby had not lost to the Bruins in s three career appearances and was the goalie of record when the Caps ousted the Bruins in the first round of the 2012 playoffs.  He continued that mastery in stopping 36 of 38 shots by Boston, including 16-for-16 in the third period of the Caps’ 4-2 win in Boston on Saturday.  The good part ending the week as he did was that he finished Week 20 with a personal four-game winning streak in which he has a goals-against average of 2.00 and a save percentage of .940.  If this is a trend, it comes just in time.

Power Play: 4-for-8 / 50.0 percent (season: 22.7 percent / rank: 2nd)

Week 20 was about as good as it gets as far as the power play goes. Two games, two power play goals in each.  One game was the picture of efficiency, the Caps scoring power play goals on each of their power play opportunities against Florida, requiring only 80 seconds of combined ice time to achieve that result.  The other instance was one of persistent pressure, the Caps recording two power play goals in six opportunities, peppering Bruin goalie Tuukka Rask with 14 shots in just 8:09 of total power play time.

As far as the scoring went, the four goals for the week were split between Troy Brouwer (both against Florida) and Alex Ovechkin (both against Boston).  Eight assists were distributed among six different players, John Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom recording a pair apiece. 

Interestingly enough, Carlson’s two points lifted him within a point for the team lead in power play points among Caps defensemen (12, one fewer than Mike Green).  Carlson now leads all Caps defensemen in power play ice time per game (3:08 to 3:00 for Green).

Penalty Killing: 9-11 / 81.8 percent (season: 81.3 percent / rank: 18th)

The problem this week was not so much the two power play goals allowed, but the 11 opportunities yielded.  Compare that total in two games to the 12 opportunities in four games the Caps allowed in Week 19.  It was the second most opportunities allowed on a per-game basis this season and the most since allowing 17 opportunities in three games in Week 5.  The opportunities problem is reflected in the fact that the shots per minute of penalty killing time was manageable.  In two games the Caps allowed 16 shots in 15:06.  One might like to see shots per minute being under 1.00, but this was not a serious problem.

The problem having been stated, the fact is that the penalty killers might have set a tone – a good one – that provided the foundation for a tough win in Boston.  When Jay Beagle and Tom Wilson were each shown the penalty box for infractions on the same sequence, the Boston Bruins had a full two-minute 5-on-3 power play just 6:57 into what was a scoreless game.  Boston managed only four shot attempts and one on goal over that two-minute 5-on-3.  If Boston converts either part of that power play, the result might have been very different.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 5-4 (season 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.92 / rank: T-21st)

That the Caps won the week at even strength, even by the thin margin of a single goal, is noteworthy in that the Caps were outshot by a 53-39 margin for the week at evens.  That 14-shot margin is entirely the product of the Caps being out-shot by a 30-16 margin in their game against Boston, but being held to the same 23 even-strength shots that Florida recorded in the first game of the week should not be ignored, either. 

The possession statistics at even strength were brutal for Washington.  In the two games the Caps had a Corsi-for and a Fenwick-for percentage under 40 percent combined in the two games (38.9/39.7).  They were better in 5-on-5 close score situations (50.8/53.9), but that kind of disparity is the sort of thing that reflects a tendency to allow teams back into games, which is what the Caps did – twice – with two-goal leads in Florida and what the almost did in Boston when the Bruins cut a 3-0 deficit to 3-2.

Faceoffs: 58-124 / 46.8 percent (season: 49.7 percent / rank: 17th)

It was not the strongest of weeks for the Caps in the circles.  Even finishing at 46.8 percent is somewhat deceiving.  Washington was a combined 15-for-40 in the offensive end (37.5 percent) and 16-for-39 (41.0 percent) in the defensive end of the ice.  They were especially ineffective against Boston in the second game of the week, 33.3 percent in the offensive end, 35.0 percent in the defensive end.

Nicklas Backstrom had an especially frustrating week on draws, going 5-for-17 (29.4 percent) in offensive zone faceoffs and 2-for-7 (28.6 percent) in the defensive end.  The odd part about defensive zone draws was that natural wingers – Eric Fehr (4-for-8) and Troy Bouwer (4-for-7) took the most defensive end draws.

Goals For/Against by Period:

The word for the week for the Caps in scoring by period was “balance.”  And, they won or held even in each of the three period for the week.  The only period of the six played this week that the Caps lost was the third period in their 5-4 win over Florida when they allowed the Panthers to erase a 4-2 deficit with a pair of goals before winning the game late on an Ovechkin goal.

In the end…

Two games, two wins.  Whether they were aesthetic masterpieces is irrelevant.  The Caps are into the portion of their season when the words of the late Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis ring loudly… “just win, baby.”  The Caps did just that this week, extending their winning streak to a season-tying high of four games.  It put them in position to reclaim a spot among the top-eight in Week 21 the race for a playoff spot.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 62/63: Capitals vs. Flyers, March 2/5

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THR AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals get no rest from their win in Boston on Saturday afternoon as they take the ice for a matinee against the Philadelphia Flyers at Verizon Center on Sunday, the first of what will be a home-and-home set against the Flyers that wraps up in Philadelphia on Wednesday.

The Capitals enter the game carrying with them a four-game winning streak and hoping to extend their good fortune to their longest winning streak of the season.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia comes into the home-and-home with five wins in their last six contests since the beginning of February.  This has the potential to be a pivotal point of the season for both teams with the Flyers holding a one-point lead over the Caps for third place in the Metropolitan Division and an automatic playoff berth.

The Flyers have outscored their opponents by a 19-13 margin in their recent 5-1-0 run.  The 13 goals against is a bit misleading in that more than half of them came in a 7-3 rout at the hands of the San Jose Sharks last Thursday.  One of the things that has made the Flyers successful lately has been the consistency of their power play.  In posting five wins over their last six games the Flyers are 4-for-20 (20.0 percent) with the man advantage, part of a longer stretch in which Philadelphia is 9-for-36 over their last 11 games.  As part of that run the Flyers had single power play goals in nine of those 11 games.

The penalty kill has been efficient over the Flyers’ 5-1-0 run (18-for-21; 85.7 percent), but consistency is what sets it apart.  The Flyers have not allowed more than one power play goal in a game in this six-game stretch.

Individually, Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds have done the heavy lifting for the Flyers since the beginning of February, scoring-wise.  Giroux is 3-5-8 in his last six games, Simmonds 2-5-7.  For Giroux it has been a long climb to rejoin the ranks of the top performers in the NHL.  He opened the season without a point in his first five games, but since then has only gone consecutive games without a point three times.  He has not gone consecutive games without a point since he was held off the score sheet by Calgary and Colorado on December 31^st and January 2^nd.  Since then, Giroux is 8-13-21 in 20 games.  He is 9-7-16 in 19 career games against Washington.

Where Giroux has been consistent, Simmonds has been streaky.  He comes into this game on a four-game points streak (1-4-5), his fifth streak of four or more games with points this season.  He also has had five streaks of three or more games without a point.  Simmonds is 3-4-7 in 14 career games against the Caps.

With Ray Emery day-to-day with a lower body injury, Steve Mason seems unlikely to yield to call-up Cal Heeter in the role of number one netminder for at least the first game of the home-and-home.  Mason has four of the five wins in the Flyers’ 5-1-0 run of late and has been solid in doing so.  His goals against of 1.93 and save percentage of .939 is quite a turnaround from an eight-game stretch in which Mason was 2-4-1 (one no-decision), 3.83, .875.  He is 4-3-2, 2.59, .917, with two shutouts against Washington in nine career appearances.

1.  Philadelphia has had a reasonably good season, health-wise.  The Flyers have dressed only 25 skaters this season.  According to the site mangameslost.com the Flyers have a total of 163 man-games lost as of March 1^st, only 39 lost to team-reported injuries, the latter being the fewest in the league.  

2.  Philly starts slowly and closes with a rush on offense.  Their 42 goals scored in the first periods of games ranks 22^nd in the league, their 69 third period goals ranks second.  In the middle frame only Edmonton and the New York Islanders have allowed more goals than the 68 allowed by Philadelphia.

3.  No team in the league has found itself shorthanded more frequently than the Flyers, 241 times in 61 games.  They also happen to have had the second most power play opportunities (223).

4.  The Flyers do very well against empty nets.  They lead the league with ten goals into vacant cages.  When you add in the seven empty net goals scored against Philadelphia (tied for 11^th highest), it might explain why the Flyers have the fourth fewest number of one-goal decisions this season.

5.  Philadelphia is a weak possession team.  In 5-on-5 close score situations the Flyers rank 22^nd in Corsi-for percentage, 26^th in Fenwick-for percentage.

1.  This home-and-home, which will close out the season series between the clubs, is the second home-and-home between Washington and Philadelphia this season.  The previous instance was in mid-December when the Caps split the pair, winning 5-4 in a Gimmick at Verizon Center followed by a 5-2 loss in Philadelphia.

2.  John Carlson is the first Caps-drafted defenseman other than Mike Green to register ten goals in a season since Sergei Gonchar recorded 18 goals in 2002-2003.  He is the first American-born defenseman drafted by the Caps to record ten goals since Kevin Hatcher had 16 for the Caps in 1993-1994.

3.  The Caps have power play goals in four consecutive games against Philadelphia, going 6-for-21 (28.6 percent).  You probably knew that Alex Ovechkin led the way, but he was not alone.  Marcus Johansson has two of those six power play goals, matching Ovechkin’s total.  Joel Ward and Troy Brouwer have the others.

4.  For you plus-minus fans… Nine Caps are on the plus side of the ledger this season.  Three of them (Steve Oleksy/+7, Nate Schmidt/+4, and Patrick Wey/+4) are in Hershey.  Two others (Julien Brouillette/+4, Casey Wellman/+3) have a combined 12 games with the Caps this season, the remainder of their time having been spent in Hershey.  One (Alexander Urbom/+1) was waived in early-January.  One (Mikhail Grabovski/+4) is injured.  That leaves Joel Ward and Jason Chimera, both plus-1.

5.  The recent Caps possession numbers can be summed up in one word… yikes!  In six of their last eight games the Caps were at or under 50 percent in both Corsi-for and Fenwick-for in 5-on-5 close score situations.  On the other hand, they are 5-2-1 in those games.  Go figure.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Kimmo Timonen

Teemu Selanne is not the only Finnish hockey player who is having an effective twilight to his career.  Kimmo Timonen, the 38-year old native of Kuopio, Finland, has been just about as effective in defensive terms as Selanne has on offense for the Anaheim Ducks.  Of defensemen playing in at least 45 games this season, Kimonen has the third highest Corsi-for relative percentage (plus-6.9%) at 5-on-5, the Corsi-for percentage relative to team's Corsi-for with the player not on ice.  His 54.4 percent Corsi-for is 18^th among 141 defensemen in this group.  He will no doubt draw the tough assignment of marking Alex Ovechkin in this contest.

Washington: Mike Green

Mike Green, who is just coming off a stint on the injured list with what appeared to be a concussion, does not have a point in the last three games in which he appeared, and he has been on ice for four of the last six goals scored against the Caps.  He is tied for 250^th among 286 defensemen in plus-minus.  Yet he is still a positive possession player.  He has the best Corsi-for relative percentage among any defensemen playing in more than 10 games for the Caps (plus-7.6%), and his Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentage are over 50 percent.  What the Caps need as their regular season winds down is for Green to bring all the good points back together and translate it into production.

Keys: 

1.  Rerun.  Playing Philadelphia is not unlike playing Boston, although the Flyers are not quite in the Bruins' class as a hockey club.  The same things apply here as they did against Boston.  The Caps will have to be sturdy in the tough areas – the boards, behind the net, top of the crease.

2.  Five-on-Five.  Beating Boston is always good, especially these days when wins will be hard to come by.  However, the Caps still need to do better at 5-on-5 going forward.  The Flyers are not an especially effective club at 5-on-5, their 0.93 goals for/against ratio being essentially equivalent to that of the Caps (0.92).  The Caps need to establish 5-on-5 dominance.

3.  Line of sight.  The Flyers are not bashful about going into dark places to try to get ugly goals.  Washington needs to give their goalies a chance to see pucks.

In the end…

When faced with a home-and-home, fans might have a tendency to look at them as a set.  In a real sense this home-and-home is exactly that.  These teams are barely distinguishable statistically – scoring offense, scoring defense, 5-on-5 play, home record, road record.  The difference is how they get there in terms of style.  Philadelphia does it with a more physical style, the Caps with a deeper skills approach.  The team that can imprint these games with their style will be the one to take three or four points out of them.

Sunday: Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

Wednesday: Capitals 3 – Flyers 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 61: Capitals 4 - Bruins 2

One down, thirteen to go.

The Washington Capitals started their 14-game walk through the toughest part of their schedule this month with a 4-2 win over the Boston Bruins this afternoon at TD Garden in Boston.  The Caps, who will face these same Bruins twice more over their next 13 games, not to mention the Pittsburgh Penguins twice, the Philadelphia Flyers twice, and take a trip to the west coast to visit Los Angeles, San Jose, and Anaheim, scored early, scored late, and held off the Bruins to secure their fourth straight win.

This game, however, might have turned on the basis of play at the other end of the ice.  In the game’s seventh minute Jay Beagle was about to be sent to the penalty box for committing a holding infraction on Milan Lucic.  Before play was whistled dead, though, Tom Wilson high-sticked Torey Krug, and both Caps were sent to the penalty box, giving the Bruins a full two-minute 5-on-3 power play.  In the power play Boston managed only four shot attempts.  Two of them were blocked, one was a miss, and the fourth – a shot on goal by Krug – was turned away by goalie Braden Hotby.  The Caps killed off the two-man disadvantage and kept themselves in the game.

The effort was not for naught, for in the final two minutes of the first period the Bruins’ Chris Kelly was sent off for interference on Jason Chimera.  Less than half a minute later, John Carlson teed up Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer from the left wing circle, and Ovechkin beat goalie Tuukka Rask to the short side to give the Caps a 1-0 lead at the first intermission.

Washington built its lead to 3-0 in the second period with a pair of goals.  The first came on Ovechkin’s second power play goal of the game.  The play started with Braden Holtby sending the puck up the left wing wall to Joel Ward at the red line.  Ward skated the puck into the Boston end and slid it to the middle where Marcus Johansson was filling in.  Johansson backhanded a pass to Ovechkin in stride, and from the top of the left wing circle Ovechkin one-timed a shot over Rask’s left shoulder and under the crossbar to make it 2-0.

The second Caps goal of the period came on an uncharacteristic breakdown by the Bruins.  After the Bruns won a center ice faceoff, Johnny Boychuk tried to move the puck across to his defensive partner Matt Bartkowski at the Boston blue line.  Joel Ward stepped up and deadened the pass, picked up the puck, and split the two defenders to skate in alone on Rask.  Ward faked Rask to the ice, then pulled the puck to his backhand, sliding the puck past Rask’s right skate to make it 3-0.

Patrice Bergeron got one back for the Bruins just 41 seconds after Ward’s goal.  With Jason Chimera off for a tripping call, Bergeron one-timed a pass from Dougie Hamilton from the slot that beat Holtby, and it was 3-1.  Boston made it 3-2 late in the second period when the Caps got caught almost doing the right thing.  As Shawn Thornton was winding up for a shot from the edge of the left wing circle, Gregory Campbell was chugging down the middle toward the net.  Mike Green tried to tie Campbell up, but in doing so he redirected Thornton’s shot past Holtby, and the Caps were down to a one-goal lead going into the third period.

In the third, Eric Fehr extended his curious mastery of Tuukka Rask.  With the Bruins trying to establish control in the Caps’ zone, Fehr twice poked the puck out of the way of Bruin sticks, the second of which cleared the zone.  When Torey Krug tried to regain control, he got tied up with Joel Ward’s stick and tumbled to the ice.  It was the room Fehr needed to break free and alone for a chance against Rask.  From the hash marks Fehr snapped a forehand past Rask’s left pad, and the Caps had the final two-goal margin they would not give up.

Other stuff…

-- Sure, the pass from John Carlson to Alex Ovechkin was deftly applied for a one-timer for the Caps’ first goal, but that play is not possible without Nicklas Backstrom’s artful stick work and soft hands on the right wing wall to open up a passing lane to Carlson to get the play going.

-- Ovechkin’s second goal was his 800^th NHL point.  He is tied with Detroit’s Pavel Datsyuk for 17^th among active NHL players.  No player since Ovechkin broke into the league in 2005 has more points.  Joe Thornton has 755 points since 2005 for second place.  Over that same period he has a whopping 103-goal lead, 412-309, over the second highest goal scorer, Ilya Kovalchuk.

-- Ovechkin was also a minus-1, making him minus-18 for the season.  In 24 “minus” games this season he has goals of his own scored eight times (nine total goals).

-- Part of playing an effective road game is often frustrating an opponent.  Here is an example of how the Caps did it this afternoon.  No Boston forward recorded a shot on goal until Dan Paille did it with 5:51 left in the first period.

-- Ward’s goal, his 18^th, is a career high, surpassing the 17 he had with Nashville in 2008-2009.  It put him in the top-50 in the league in goal scoring (tied with 12 other players).  His two points for the afternoon made it 35 for the season, tying his career high in 2008-2009.

-- Eric Fehr now has four career goals against Boston.  All of them have been scored against Tuukka Rask.

-- Boston is not an especially adept penalty killing team, given their place in the standings.  We noted that capitalizing on this would be a key to this game.  The two power play goals scored by the Caps was the first time the Bruins allowed two power play goals in a game since January 14^th against Toronto.

-- The power play loomed large in another respect.  The Caps outshot the Bruins, 14-5, on their respective power plays.  On the other hand, Boston won the even strength shot battle, 30-16.  As a result, Boston kicked the Corsi out of the Caps, winning that contest at 5-on-5 with a 66.7 percent Corsi-for, and in 5-on-5 close score situations with a 54.2 percent mark.

-- The four-game winning streak is the Caps longest since a four-game streak to open the month of November.  Since the Caps had an eight-game losing streak (0-6-2) in January, they are 7-2-1.

-- No Metropolitan Division team has more points earned against the Atlantic Division than the Caps.  The win made the Caps 11-4-5 against the Atlantic this season, the 27 points earned being one more than the 26 earned by Pittsburgh (12-6-2).

-- Milan Lucic and Reilly Smith were tied for second in goals for the Bruins entering the game.  They ended the game still tied for second because both were held without a shot on goal.  Team leader Brad Marchand had only one shot on goal (and two minor penalties).

In the end…

It was a good win all around.  Sure, the fancy-stat’ers will note that the Caps were beaten in the possession statistics, but that is when a goalie needs to step up, and Braden Holtby did with a fine game.  The Caps made good on their power play opportunities, and they kept Boston’s most dangerous players from being too dangerous.  It was a good step on the rough March road, but only the first step.  It is a long road to go.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 61: Capitals at Bruins, March 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals finish up their two-game road swing to start the season’s home stretch as they visit the Boston Bruins this afternoon.  The Caps are looking to tie their longest winning streak of the season (four), while the Bruins look to extend their streak of not losing games in regulation to six (3-0-2 coming into this game).

To date, the Caps have had good luck against Atlantic Division teams, posting a 10-4-5 record.  However, this is the first time the Caps are meeting the class of the division in the Bruins this season.  In Boston, the Caps face a formidable opponent, especially in TD Garden.  No team in the league has posted more wins or standings points at home than the Bruins (23 wins, 48 standings points won).  That might prove a high hurdle to clear for the Caps, but Washington is also facing a team that stubbed their toe in their last three games, losing two of them in overtime.

Boston went 3-0-2 in February.  In posting that record they split 20 goals among 11 different skaters and points among 16 skaters.  Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand led the club with three goals apiece.  Lucic added four assists for seven points over the five games, but he did not lead the team in points.  That was a spot reserved for Jarome Iginla, who went 2-6-8 in February, scoring points in each of the five games.  In fact, Iginla is 4-11-15 over his last nine games and has points in eight of them.

Lucic and Iginla are two of the three Bruins who posted at least four assists in five games in February.  The third is defenseman Torey Krug, who was 1-4-5 for the month and who is 2-9-11 over his last 12 games.  That recent scoring burst has lifted Krug into a tie for 14^th in scoring among NHL defensemen and is the club leader among blueliners in that regard (12-22-34).

Tuukka Rask has not faced a shot from an NHL shooter since before the Sochi Olympics.  Rask backstopped Team Finland to a bronze medal in Sochi and was given the night off in Boston’s first game back following the break, a 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo.  In the run-up to the Olympic break Rask was a bit off his game.  He was 1-1-1, 2.70, .904, the goals-against average and save percentage being a substantial drop-off from his season numbers (2.14, .927).  Rask has never beaten Washington in his career (0-2-3, 3.41).

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers to date:

1. “B” stands for “Boston,” but it also stands for “balance.”  The Bruins have eight skaters with at least ten goals, five of them between 15 and 20 goals scored.  They have 18 skaters with at least ten points, four of them with between 40 and 50 points.  Nine different players have power play goals, 11 have power play points.  Four different players have shorthanded goals, 13 players have game-winning goals.  Thirteen players are plus-10 or better, five of them plus-20 or better.  Even penalty minutes – 20 players have at least ten PIMs this season, nine have at least 30.  This team does everything as a group.

2.  You score against Boston at 5-on-5, you’re going to earn it.  No team in the East has allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5; only Tampa Bay (91) is within a dozen allowed by the Bruins (85).

3.  Boston smothers opponents.  Only St. Louis (18) and Pittsburgh (17) have more wins by three or more goals than Boston (16), and only Chicago has fewer losses (3) by three or more goals than the Bruins (4).

4.  For a team with a reputation for rugged play, the Bruins play surprisingly within the rule book.  Boston has the 11^th fewest number of minor penalties called this season and is tied with Colorado, Dallas, and New Jersey for the 11^th fewest number of shorthanded situations faced.  They do like to mix it up, though.  Boston is third in fighting majors this season (36), trailing only Philadelphia (38) and Vancouver (37).

5.  As one might expect for a team ranked as highly as the Bruins, they are a superior possession team.  In 5-on-5 close score situations Boston ranks third in Corsi-for percentage and fourth in Fenwick-for percentage.

1.  The four-goal performance notwithstanding, the Caps have had a decent run lately on defense, allowing only seven goals over their last four games and holding two of those opponents under 30 shots.

2.  Washington is one of the more productive teams on the road.  The Caps rank ninth in the league in goals scored on the road this season, tied for fifth among teams in the East.

3.  The Caps are still struggling to hold leads. Washington is 25^th in the league in winning percentage when taking a lead into the first intermission of games, and there is that whole two-goal lead thing.

4.  The Caps spend entirely too much time killing penalties, especially for a team that does not do it especially well (tied for 17^th in the league).  Washington has faced 220 shorthanded situations this season, sixth most in the league, and has found itself shorthanded five or more times six times in their last dozen games (42-for-49 overall; 85.7 percent).

5.  The Caps sometimes play down to the level of their opponent.  Case in point, the last game against Florida where the possession numbers varied wildly by situation.  For example, the Caps dominated play in 5-on-5 close score situations, putting up Corsi-for and Fenwick for percentages of 53.5 and 55.9, respectively.  Ah, but at 5-on-5 overall?  The Caps trailed poorly – 44.4 percent and 45.8 percent.  That’s why Florida could wipe out two two-goal leads.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Reilly Smith

Who the $@#% is Reilly Smith, you ask?  He is a 22-year old third round draft pick from 2009 who happens to have 18 goals (tied for second on the team) and 43 points (one of four Bruins with 40 or more points), despite averaging fewer than 15 minutes of ice time a game.  He does not have a goal in his last six games, though.  What Reilly is not shy about is shooting.  He is third on the club in shot frequency, averaging a one shot per eight minutes of ice time (minimum: 100 shots), trailing only Patrice Bergeron and Jarome Iginla.  Smith has never faced the Caps.

Washington: Braden Holtby

If the Caps are to make a go of it in their last 22 games, Holtby is going to have to ramp up his game.  All the Ryan Miller-to-Washington nonsense is in the rear-view mirror (Miller having been traded to St. Louis yesterday), so Holtby does not have that distraction.  It is a chance for him to shed this all-or-nothing trend in his game lately.  Over his last 12 appearances he has allowed four or more goals six times, but he also has two shutouts.  Consistency is what is needed now.  He is 3-0-0, 2.24, .930 in three career appearances against Boston.

Keys:

1. Be Boring.  The Caps are not going to win a shootout (not the Gimmick kind of shootout).  One team might score five goals in this game, two won’t, and the one team more likely to do it – a lot more likely – is Boston.  The Caps need this to be a low scoring game.

2.  Stand up for yourself.  This does not mean dropping the gloves, although Boston is not shy about that sort of thing.  If the Caps get pushed around in their own end, lose battles against the wall, get caught backing off too much, Boston will roll over them like a rolling pin over biscuit dough.

3.  Be special.  Boston is not an especially noteworthy penalty killing team.  If the Caps are to win, they need to capitalize on the power play chances they get to offset their disadvantages at 5-on-5.

In the end…

This should be a comfortable Bruin win…on paper.  Skates don’t work so well on paper, that’s why they play on ice.  The Caps have not been intimidated by this team in recent games.  Witness their seven-game playoff win two years ago and their 2-1-0 record against them last season.  The Caps start crossing the 14-game mine field that could blow up their season this afternoon.  We’re thinking their first steps will be safe ones.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 60: Capitals 5 - Panthers 4

Well, they won.

The Washington Capitals started their home stretch on the right foot, if only with a halting step, by defeating the Florida Panthers last night, 5-4, in Sunrise, Florida.  The Capitals never trailed in the game, but neither could they hold a lead. 

The Caps opened the scoring with a pair of goals 2:22 apart early in the first period, the first being the product of persistent stick work by Troy Brouwer on a power play.  In the middle of the 1-3-1 set up, Brouwer had an active stick on shots coming through, trying to deflect one past Panther goalie Tim Thomas.  It would be a loose puck, though, that Brouwer would finally backhand over Thomas’ blocker to give the Caps the lead. 

Brooks Laich made it 2-0 in short order when Alex Ovechkin broke in with him into the Panther zone.  From the top of the left wing circle Ovechkin hinted at a shot but laid the puck off to Laich on the opposite side.  Laich buried it before Thomas could scramble across, and it was 2-1.

That did not last.  Tomas Fleischmann got one back with less than five minutes left in the period when he snuck into the slot and converted a pass from behind the net by Jesse Winchester.  Brad Boyes tied it 40 seconds into the second period when he swept in a loose puck lying at the post to the left of goalie Braden Holtby.

The Caps recaptured their two-goal lead in the period, first when Nicklas Backstrom snapped a loose puck in the low slot past Thomas, and next when Brouwer walked calm as you please into the crease and tapped the puck past a prone Thomas.

Florida got them back in an 82-second span in the third period, courtesy of Drew Shore on a power play, then Boyes again at the 9:23 mark.  That left things up to Ovechkin.  It started when the Panthers could not clear the puck out of their zone along the right wing wall.  When Panther defenseman Dmitry Kulikov chipped the puck along the wall, it seemed to be a signal for his teammates to fly the zone.  When Nicklas Backstrom knocked down the attempt at the blue line and chipped the puck back to Brooks Laich, it created a 2-on-1 for Laich on the right side and Ovechkin on the left, Mike Weaver the only Panther back.  Laich held the puck until Weaver committed and laid out, then slid the puck across to Ovechkin who one-timed the puck past Thomas for the game-winner.

Other stuff…

-- Remember that stuff about two-goal leads we scribbled a little while back?  The Caps added two more two-goal leads to their body of work this season, lost them both, and still won the game.  They are now 16-1-2 when taking a two-goal lead and preventing the other team from earning one.

-- In his last 12 appearances in which he played all 60 minutes, Braden Holtby has allowed four or more goals seven times.  Draw your own conclusions.

-- Two power play opportunities, two power play goals.  It was the first time this season the Caps pulled off that trick.

-- The top line sure was working.  Brooks Laich, Alex Ovechkin, and Nicklas Backstrom each went 1-2-3.  For Laich it was his first multiple point game this season and his first since April 5, 2012, against these same Florida Panthers (a 4-2 Caps win to clinch the 2012 Southeast Division title).  It was his first three-point game since November 1, 2011, in a 5-4 overtime win against the Anaheim Ducks.

-- On the other hand, it was Backstrom’s third multiple point game in his last five contests.  He broke a 15-game streak without a goal, although he is now 1-8-9 over his last six games.

-- For Ovechkin it was his fourth multi-point game in his last nine games.  He is 11-11-22 over his last 18 games and has points in 14 of those games.

-- Let’s not leave Troy Brouwer out of this.  His two power play goals make it five goals in his last three games. It was the first time he recorded two power play goals in a game since December 13, 2010, when he had a pair in a 7-5 loss to the Colorado Avalanche and he was skating for the Chicago Blackhawks.

-- Also not to be left out of the multiple point parade is John Carlson.  He had a pair of assists to make it three multi-point games in his last six.  He is 1-7-8 over his last nine games.

-- Four shifts, 2:20 of ice time, no shots, no points, no good.  Mikhail Grabovski left the game in the first period after getting tangled up with Nick Byugstad, apparently reinjuring his wonky ankle. 

-- Grabovski’s injury meant some scrambling of lines and roles. One effect – Jay Beagle skated 15:31, his second highest ice time logged this season.

-- It strikes us as a bit odd that Nicklas Backstrom, who took the most faceoffs for the Caps last night, was the only Cap to be under 50 percent for the evening (5-for-16; 31.3 percent).

-- Mike Green had a game he probably does not want to remember.  Green skated only 18:35 in his return from a concussion sustained against Columbus back on February 4^th.  It was his first time under 20 minutes in a full game since December 27^th (19:10) and his lowest ice time for a full game since December 17^th against Philadelphia (18:05).  He was on the ice for three Panther goals, although his partner (Dmitry Orlov on the first two of them) certainly played a role, getting walked around on the boards leading to the first Panther goal and wandering away from the post to let Brad Boyes tap in a loose puck for the second Florida score.

-- Nicolas Deschamps got a sweater when Marcus Johansson was a late scratch.  Nine shifts, 7:38 in ice time.  Welcome to the show, kid.

In the end...

The two-goal scorer Troy Brouwer might have had the best take on the proceedings:

“After that game, it’s a win, but it’s not really a winning feeling in here at the moment.”

Yeah, OK.  You still got two points.  So suck it up.  Things are going to get real, really fast.  Boston, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh – twice apiece – over the next seven games.  It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 60: Capitals at Panthers, February 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The torch has been extinguished, the athletes have returned to their homelands, and we are back to our scribbles. The Olympics are over, and…

“They were GREAT!”

Well, it looks like the cousins have not yet extinguished their Olympic enthusiasm. Cheerless, you enjoyed them?

“You bet! They were more exciting than running from a revenuer trying to catch me at the ol’ still.”

Fearless, I assume you relished the competition.

“Oh, it was magnificent. The steely-eyed competitors giving and taking no quarter. The skills, the strategy, the suspense.”

“Yeah, and ever since the Olympics ended, our place has never been cleaner.”

Wait…what?

“Oh, he’s done nothing but sweep out the place every day this week.”

Ah, the dedication and discipline of the athlete.

“Nah… I just LOVE curling!”

Well, before Cheerless takes to heaving rocks about the place, let’s get to the business at hand. The Washington Capitals return to action tonight when they visit the Florida Panthers in a Southeast Showd….

Oh wait, that’s last year. This year, the teams are merely Eastern Conference opponents, the Caps in the Metropolitan Division, the Panthers in the Atlantic. This will be the third and last meeting between the clubs this season. The Caps and Panthers have split a pair of 3-2 decisions this year, the Caps winning at home in the Gimmick on November 2nd, the Panthers winning in another freestyle competition on December 13th in Florida.

If you think the Washington Capitals’ representatives at the Sochi Olympics had disappointing experiences, consider the Florida Panthers’ representatives. Forwards Tomáš Kopecký and Aleksander Barkov were selected to Team Slovakia and Team Finland, respectively. Neither made it to the end of the tournament, and we do not mean by way of their teams' elimination. Kopecký’s Olympics were ended in Slovakia’s 3-1 loss to Slovenia in the preliminary round of men’s ice hockey. He took an elbow to the head from Sabahudin Kovačevič and sustained a concussion. He is out indefinitely. Barkov suffered a knee injury in Finland’s 6-1 win over Finland and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.

Neither Kopecký (4-8-12 in 49 games) nor Barkov (8-16-24) are having especially noteowrthy years, although Barkov is tied for 10th among rookies in points. However, it makes for a thinning of the roster for a team already struggling. Florida entered the Olympic break with a 1-5-0 record in their last six games. The problem was not one of scoring (well, not “the” problem), but rather keeping their own net clear of pucks. The Panthers allowed 25 goals in those six games, their only win coming (not coincidentally) when they allowed but a single goal to Toronto in a 4-1 win on February 4th.

The problem in their own end has not been allowing an inordinate number of shots during this 1-5-0 run (31.3 per game), but goaltending has been something of an adventure. Tim Thomas has had most of the work over those six games, going 1-4-0, 3.88, .877 in 263 minutes of work over five appearances. He was pulled in his last start after allowing four goals on 14 shots in less than 25 minutes of a 5-1 loss to Carolina in the Panthers’ last game before the break.

And he’s the better of the two goalies. Scott Clemmensen had one start and one relief appearance, going 0-1-0, 4.41, .860. Thomas is 14-5-3, 2.46, .923 with a shutout against the Caps in 23 career appearances, However, he has not appeared against the Caps since Joel Ward scored on him in overtime in Game 7 to send the Boston Bruins home for the spring in the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Scoring has not exactly been a bright spot, either. Twelve goals in six games, four of them in the Panthers’ 4-1 win over Toronto on February 4th. At least they have spread things around, like a thin layer of peanut butter on stale bread as it turns out. Sixteen different skaters have points, nine players share the 12 goals.

Only Scottie Upshall has as many as four points over the 1-5-0 run (1-3-4, all of those points coming in his last five games). In fact, this is part of a longer productive run for Upshall, at least by Panther standards. He is 4-5-9 over his last 14 games. Upshall also is one of two Panthers with both a power play goal and a shorthanded goal scored this season. He has an assist over the two games played against the Caps this season.

Brad Boyes is the other Panther with both a power play and a shorthanded goal scored this season, and he is one of three Panthers with two goals over the 1-5-0 run up to the Olympic break (Nick Byugstad and Dmitry Kulikov being the others). He has been streaky. From November 12th through November 27th, a period covering eight games, Boyes was 3-3-6. Then he went cold, going 1-0-1 over his next dozen games. He followed that up with a 3-5-8 scoring line over seven games, then went cold again without a point in his next five contests. Boyes comes into this game 3-1-4 in his last seven games, but he is without a point in his last three.  Here is how the teams compare to date, numbers-wise...

1. Florida is special in one respect. They have the worst special teams in the league. They might even be historic in their ineptitude. Going into this game the Panthers rank dead last in power play (9.0 percent) and penalty kill (77.2 percent). That special teams index of 86.2 would be, if the season ended today, the worst such number since the 2004-2005 lockout (Toronto had an 88.6 index in 2009-2010) and is the worst going back at least to the 1997-1998 season. Florida could end the season with the worst power play percentage in at least 40 years. The Tampa Bay Lightning finished the 1997-1998 season at 9.3 percent, and the Washington Capitals did the same in their inaugural season in 1974-1975.

2. To the Panthers, the eight-ball they get behind early in games is not a billiard ball, it is a boulder, at least in terms of their first period play. With 34 goals scored and 56 allowed in the first periods of games, Florida is 29th in the league with a minus-22 goal differential in the first 20 minutes (Buffalo is minus-31).

3. Again, thank heavens for Buffalo. No team has scored first less often than the Panthers (23 times in 58 games), except the Sabres (19 times in 58 games).

4. When Florida loses, and they do it often, there is rarely any mystery about it. Of their 36 total losses, regulation and extra time, 16 of them have been by three or more goals. No team has a higher percentage of losses coming by three or more goals. No, not even Buffalo.

5. The sad truth is that the Panthers are a decent possession team, to a point. In 5-on-5 close scenarios the Panthers rank 15th in the league in Fenwick-for percentage and 14th in Corsi-for percentage. But here’s the thing. Only two teams have fewer Corsi and Fenwick events in such situations than the Panthers (St. Louis and Columbus in both instances). Florida just does not spend much time staying “close,” and not in a good way.

1. As the Caps head into their last 23 games, here are their 59-game records in this playoff era:

2008: 27-26-6

2009: 37-17-5

2010: 41-12-6

2011: 30-19-10

2012: 29-25-5

2013: only 48 games played

2014: 29-23-7

It looks like what a balloon with a slow leak sounds like.

2. Only four teams have more second period goals this season than the Caps’ 68 goals. Trouble is, only four teams have allowed more second period goals than the Caps’ 62 goals.

3. Alex Ovechkin has 40 goals in 55 games. At the 55-game mark of his 65-goal season in 2007-2008 he had 46 goals at the 55-game mark. He would need to close with a rush to get close to that personal best; he had 17 goals in his last 17 games that 2007-2008 season.

3. Nicklas Backstrom has gone 15 games without a goal, his second streak of at least 12 games without a goal this season. He has a way to go (not that we hope he gets there) to hit his career longest. He went 21 games without a goal, in 2009-2010 (December 2 - January 18).

4. If Nicolas Deschamps (called up yesterday) gets a sweater, he will be the 13th player for the Caps who has spent time with the Hershey Bears this season (of what would be 32 players to dress for the Caps in all). The others are:

Casey Wellman

Michael Latta

Julien Brouillette

Tyson Strachan

Dmitry Orlov

Nate Schmidt

Patrick Wey

Connor Carrick

Steve Oleksy

Jack Hillen

Michal Neuvirth

Phillipp Grubauer

Nicolas Deschamps

5. Progress… The Caps are slowly climbing the possession charts. The now rank 18th in Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations and 20th in Fenwick-for percentage. In both (49.1 and 48.6, respectively) they are getting tantalizingly close to 50 percent.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Tomas Fleischmann

Former Capital Tomas Fleischmann is quietly rehabilitating his reputation as being a player who answers the bell. After enduring a number of health problems in his tenure with the Caps and with the Colorado Avalanche (lower body injury, pneumonia, blood clots, chest injury), he has appeared in 186 of 188 games as a member of the Florida Panthers. What he is not having, though, is a productive season. His five goals in 56 games is his lowest goal total in that many games or more in his career. He is without a goal in his last 22 games and has only two in his last 43 games since he scored against the Caps in a 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Caps on November 10th.

Washington: Martin Erat

Much attention is being paid to how the Olympic athletes representing the teams with high expectations – Alex Ovechkin with Team Russia, Nicklas Backstrom with Team Sweden, and John Carlson with Team USA – will come out of the gate after disappointing conclusions to their respective stays in Sochi. On the other hand, there is Martin Erat. A replacement for St. Louis’ Vladimir Sobotka, Erat did not have an especially memorable games, numbers-wise, but he did have a goal in five games (in a 4-2 win over Latvia), and he and his wife Vera welcomed a baby daughter into the family. All in all, it was not a bad Olympic break for the veteran. Of more relevance to the Caps, since logging just (:42 and 7:27 in consecutive games in early January, Erat has logged fewer than 15 minutes per game only once, back on January 17th. He is 1-6-7 in his last 12 games since those spare minute games, showing signs that the best from him this season is yet to come. One only wonders if it will be with the Caps.

Keys:

1. Fast and Furious. We made note of the Florida power play, which makes the term “anemic” sound healthy. However, the Panthers are also last in the league in penalty killing and have allowed power play goals in each of the last five games in which they faced at least two shorthanded situations. Overall, they are 24-for-32 over their last nine games (75.0 percent). They can, on the other hand, do reasonably well at home. In their last eight home games they are 23-for-24, Detoit breaking their string of seven straight home games not allowing a power play goalwhen the Red Wings went 6-for-7 on the power play. The Caps need to get on them fast and be furious about pounding the net.

2. Ignore the Logo. 

“I found that it was quiet; it was kind of tough to get up for the game here. I don’t know why. I think I have an idea why.  The crowd was quiet, yeah. So I think that has a little bit to do with it, but we should’ve created our own energy because it was such a big game, and we didn’t do a good enough job doing it.”

-- Karl Alzner, speaking of playing in Sunrise, Florida, February 2012 (the Caps lost that game to the Panthers, 4-2)

If that attitude reappears, this team is not good enough to win on talent alone.

3.  Stay the Cors-i.  The Capitals have improved their possession statistics over the weeks leading up to the Olympic Break, but they are going to have to raise that bar to becoming a dominant team if they are going to make a playoff run.  That should (and “should” is an important word in this sentence) be the case against this team.

In the end…

The Caps are three points out of a playoff spot with 23 games to play.  It does not sound like much, but with three-point games being a feature of today’s NHL and teams getting chances to pick up points even when they lose, that margin is wider than it might seem.  The Caps cannot be giving any more points away to lesser teams; they need to hoard these points with the most difficult part of their 2013-2014 schedule about to begin.  There is no excuse for losing this game.

Capitals 4 – Panthers 2