The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 52: Capitals at Senators, February 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Basking in the limelight of a shutout of the defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday night is over for the Washington Capitals as they had to Ottawa to face the Senators at Canadian Tire Centre.

The Caps are looking to break a five-game road losing streak (0-3-2), all of the losses being of the one-goal variety.  Meanwhile, the Senators, who have been bouncing between a game under and a game over .500 for more than two months, try once more to get one-game over .500 when they host the Caps.

While the Caps have been having their recent struggles on the road, Ottawa is alternating wins and losses at home (3-3-0), serving as a reflection of their lowly standing after 49 games (sixth in the Atlantic Division, 11th in the Eastern Conference with a 20-20-9 record.  And, while the Caps’ road games of late feature one-goal decisions, games have been settled in emphatic fashion in the Canadian capital.  Three of the games were decided by three or more goals (a 2-1-0 record).

Ottawa outscored their opponents 22-19 in their six home games so far this calendar year.  Eleven players share in the 22 goals, led by Erik Karlsson and Mika Zibanejad with four apiece.  Karlsson has been a reasonably consistent scorer this season, recording points in 29 of his 49 games and ranking sixth overall in points among defensemen this season (12-23-35).  He has five points in his last five contests overall (4-1-5), but what jumps out about his game recently is his propensity to take penalties.  After recording only ten penalty minutes over his first 36 games, Karlsson has 20 penalty minutes in his last 13 games and has taken at least one penalty in eight of those 13 games.  In 16 career games against the Caps, Karlsson is 2-12-14, plus-1).

Zibandjad has not been nearly as consistent this season as Karlsson, but he does seem to be warming up of late.  He started the season with only three points (2-1-3) in his first 15 games befor peeling off 14 points in his next 15 contests (7-7-14).  Of late, Zibanejad is 4-4-8 in his last nine games and had a four-game points streak stopped in his last contest, a 2-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils.  He is 2-1-3 in eight career meetings with the Capitals.

Craig Anderson is the second-winningest goaltender in Senators franchise history (94, 52 wins behind Patrick Lalime).  His .921 save percentage is best in franchise history (minimum: 50 games), his goals-against average of 2.57 is fourth, and his 15 shutouts is second in Ottawa franchise history.  He had been humming along, not allowing more than three goals in 13 consecutive appearances, then he decided to play “Top Chef” and accidentally cut his right hand.  He is out indefinitely.

That would appear to leave the goaltending duties up to Robin Lehner.  Since Anderson’s adventures in the kitchen, Lehner has three appearances over which he is 1-2-0, 2.69, .916.  Respectable numbers under the circumstances and consistent with his career numbers (80 games, 28-33-12, 2.89, .914, 2 shutouts), but not great.  Lehner allowed two goals each of his last two appearances, which is quite an improvement over his season before that.  After going 3-0-1 in his first four decisions and working to a 2.10 goals against average and .939 save percentage, he went into a prolonged funk.  Over his next 13 appearances he was 3-8-1 (one no-decision), 3.69, .885.  Perhaps having been thrust into the number one role for the time being will improve Lehner’s focus, but his season to date is uneven.  Washington is the only team in the league he has never faced.

Here is how the teams’ numbers compare overall:

1.  Ottawa certainly is a middle of the road team… 2.74 goals per game scored, 2.74 goals per game allowed, 91 goals scored at 5-on-5, 91 goals allowed at 5-on-5, 29 power play goals scored on 173 chances, 30 power play goals allowed on 176 chances.  Ottawa plays as “even” as a team can almost 50 games into their season.

2.  Underneath, Ottawa has more success in blowout decisions (7-4 in decisions of three or more goals) than they do in any other scenario (13-16-9).

3.  The Senators have the worst winning percentage in the league when scoring the game’s first goal (.393/11-10-7) and the league’s second-worst winning percentage when leading at the first intermission (.533/8-5-2), but they have the ninth-best winning percentage when trailing first (.429/9-10-2) and the second-best winning percentage when trailing after 20 minutes (.500/6-5-1).  Go figure.

4.  Ottawa struggles with that whole “rules” thing.  They have the fifth-highest average penalty minutes per game in the league, the seventh-highest number of minor penalties taken, and the fifth-highest number of shorthanded situations faced.  The Caps’ power play might be drooling at the prospects.

5.  Ottawa also struggles in possession.  Starting at the top, the Senators have allowed the fifth-highest number of shots on goal per game.  Their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 is certainly respectable (49.6, 19^th in the league), but they are relying too much on goaltending, given their shots differential, to keep things close (minus-4 goal differential at 5-on-5, .926 save percentage at 5-on-5, numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1. Eighteen different Capitals have had multi-point games this season, led by Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom who have done it 17 times, apiece.  Last season, 19 Caps had multi-point games with Ovechkin and Backstrom accomplishing the feat 21 times apiece.  Since Backstrom came into the league in 2007-2008, he has the sixth highest number of multi-point games (151, tied with Joe Thornton).  Curiously enough, the leader in multi-point games since Backstrom came into the league is Ovechkin (193).

2.  Despite having played the tenth-most number of road games this season, Washington has the sixth-fewest number of power play opportunities.

3.  Only Winnipeg (849) and the New York Islanders (771) have been credited with more hits on the road than have the Caps (745).

4.  The Caps have the third best net goal plus-minus on the road this season (plus-11), behind only the New York Rangers (plus-12) and the Nashville Predators (plus-17).

5.  Although he’s not here any longer, it might interest you to know that Liam O’Brien is still the forward with the most games played (13) without being on ice for a goal scored against.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Mike Hoffman

If one were asked which Senator led the team in goals and plus-minus, Mike Hoffman might not be the first name that comes to mind.  Hoffman is that player, though (17 goals plus-18).  He has had quite a first full season in the NHL.  It is not a product of a hot start (1-1-2 in his first eight games), and it is not a product of scoring in bunches.  He has been consistent in his contributions over his last 38 games (goals in 13 of them, points in 21).  And here is an odd fact about him.  That plus-18, which is tied for ninth among all forwards in the NHL, is a product of what happens in the defensive end.  Of 280 forwards having played in at least 40 games so far, only 34 have been on ice for fewer goals against than Hoffman (21 goals).  If he is out there, and the Caps score, write it down.  This will be only his second career game against the Caps, and he will be looking for his first point against them.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson might be regarded by some as “The Other Carlson (Karlsson)” in this game, but so far this season his numbers compare favorably with the former (2012) Norris Trophy winner.  Each has 35 points this season (Carlson: 5-30-35; Karlsson: 12-23-35).  Karlsson has more power play points (16 to 7), but Carlson has more even strength points (28 to 19).  Karlsson averages more ice time (27:02 to 23:16), but Carlson skates more shifts per game (28.7 to 27.2).  Karlsson gets more power play ice time (4:41 to 1:26), but Carlson gets more shorthanded ice time (3:09 to 0:38).  “Other” is not an adjective one should use to describe John Carlson these days.  He is 4-4-8 in 17 career games against the Senators.

In the end…

The Capitals just dispatched an opponent – the Los Angeles Kings – against which they had lost their previous seven games.  Now they take on an opponent who has been just as troublesome.  Before beating the Senators by a 2-1 margin on December 22nd, the Caps had lost seven straight games to Ottawa (0-6-1).  What has characterized all of the last eight games against Ottawa is the Caps’ inability to score.  They have a total of 12 goals in those eight games and recorded more than two only once, a 6-4 loss to Ottawa in November 2013.

The Caps will have advantages in this game.  They are coming off arguably their most complete effort of the season against a stout (if struggling) opponent, they are a decent road team (tied for third in road wins in the Metropolitan Division), and they are facing a goaltender who has no live book on the Caps.  On the other hand, there is the “trap” element to consider.  This is the first of a back-to-back set of games, and tomorrow’s game is against the Anaheim Ducks, a team tied for the most wins in the league and coached by former Caps’ bench boss Bruce Boudreau.  Peeking ahead is a concern here.  Nevertheless, the Caps might finally break the spell the Ottawa Senators have over them as far as scoring goes. 

Capitals 5 – Senators 2

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 51: Capitals 4 - Kings 0

The Washington Capitals broke a two-game losing streak on Tuesday night with a 4-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings at Verizon Center. 

Rarely, it seems, does a player’s individual milestone achieved coincide with a fine performance, but it was the case for the Caps' Troy Brouwer.  Playing in his 500^th NHL game, Brouwer gave the Caps the lead late in the first period when he converted an Evgeny Kuznetsov backhand feed out of the left wing circle to snap the puck past goalie Jonathan Quick’s glove at the 17:11 mark.

It was Brouwer times two late in the second period.  On a power play, Nicklas Backstrom slid the puck out to Mike Green at the top of the zone.  Green’s one-timer off the pass looked as if it was going to go wide to Quick’s left, but Brouwer managed to get the blade of his stick on the puck and redirect it over Quick’s left pad to give the Caps a 2-0 lead 16:36 into the second period.

The Caps put it away in the third period with goals 59 seconds apart early in the frame.  The first of them came on one of the fanciest passing sequences the Caps have executed this season, but it started with effective forechecking.  The play started with Alex Ovechkin dumping the puck from the blue line into the far corner to Quick’s left.  The puck rolled behind the Kings’ net where Quick settled it for Robyn Regehr.  With Backstrom jumping up to challenge Regehr, the puck rolled off the defenseman’s stick and right onto that of Ovechkin.  From the left wing circle Ovechkin slid the puck to Marcus Johansson, who relayed it to Backstrom circling out of the corner.  With Quick hopelessly out of the play anticipating Johansson’s shot, Backstrom had nothing but an empty net to shoot at, and he buried it to make it 3-0, Caps.

Eric Fehr closed the scoring when Kings defenseman Mat Greene tried to skate up the wall but found Fehr and Joel Ward waiting for him at the blue line.  Ward poked the puck off Greene’s stick, and Fehr grabbed it.  Skating in alone on Quick, he pulled the puck onto his backhand to avoid the onrushing attempt of Marian Gaborik to poke the puck away, then backhanded it over Quick’s right shoulder to light the lamp one last time.

After that, the only suspense was whether the Caps and goalie Braden Holtby would preserve the shutout.  They did, and Caps fans went home happy with their second 4-0 decision in their last four games.

Other stuff…

-- Braden Holtby is working on a bit of an odd streak.  He has not allowed a goal in 193:42 of regulation hockey dating back to the third period of the Caps’ 4-3 loss to Columbus on January 27^th.  The only goal he allowed over his last three games was in overtime to the Montreal Canadiens last Saturday in a 1-0 loss.

-- Another odd Holtby fact.  Each of his last two games at Verizon Center was a 27-save, 4-0 shutout, the other authored against the Pittsburgh Penguins on January 28^th.

-- And another Holtby fact.  His shutout was his third in his last four games at Verizon Center and his sixth of the season overall, tying him with Marc-Andre Fleury for the league lead.

-- Troy Brouwer’s two goals represented his first two-goal game of the season.  He had just one goal in his last nine games coming into this contest.

-- With a goal and an assist, Nicklas Backstrom had his fifth multi-point game in his last eight contests.

-- Score effects… the Kings had only 13 shots on goal in the first two periods, 14 in the third.  As it was, when tied or leading by one, the Caps had a 23-11 advantage in shot attempts at 5-on-5.  At one point the Caps had a shot attempt advantage overall of 40-21.

-- As one might expect from two of the biggest teams in the league, there were a lot of hits – 62 of them, in fact (Kings: 37, Caps: 25).

-- Alex Ovechkin had six missed shots, almost as many as the entire Kings squad (8), all of them in the first two period.

-- The Caps held the Kings to one power play, the fewest allowed by the Caps since they denied Carolina any man advantages in a 2-1 win on December 4^th.  The Kings recorded no shots on goal on their lone power play.  In fact, the Kings had only one shot attempt while the Caps recorded three shorthanded shots on goal of their own, one a mini-break off a steal by Troy Brouwer that, had he converted, would have been the hat trick goal.

-- Karl Alzner recorded an assist, his fifth point in his last eight games.  He is now on a pace to finish the season with 23 points, which would shatter his career high (18, set last season).  He became the fifth Capitals defensemen to record double digits in assists this season.

-- Backstrom lost four of his first five faceoffs.  He won 11 of his last 13 to finish 12-for-18.

-- The game had amazing flow to it, especially early.  The first 6:32 of the game was played before a whistle was blown.  The Caps had only two defensive zone faceoffs in the first period (Eric Fehr lost one, Jay Beagle won one).

-- Head coach Barry Trotz juggled the lines some, and while it had delightful results on the scoreboard, there were underlying problems.  The retooled second line of Troy Brouwer (minus-10), Andre Burakovsky (minus-12), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (minus-12) were abused in the Corsi plus-minus numbers at 5-on-5.  There was a bit of score effect in that the three were somewhat better when the game was tied (minus-2, minus-3, and minus-3, respectively), but not everything was skittles and accordions, either (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

The Caps beat a team with a reputation well earned, but one that has not been playing well lately and horribly on the road.  Nevertheless, the Caps did precisely what they had to do on such a team – get a lead and stand on their throats.  At the other end, the Capitals net has become “The Black Hole-tby,” where pucks are sucked into the great void, never to emerge in the net.  In his last six games at Verizon Center, Holtby is 5-0-1, 0.99, .964, with three shutouts. 

There are nights when the Caps can beat anyone, and there are nights when it looks as if they cannot win against air.  Tonight was certainly a case of the former.  It might have been their most smothering defense of the season, persistently forcing the Kings into turnovers trying to break out of their own zone with aggressive pursuit and hounding of puck carriers.  If they can be reasonably consistent in playing such a game, they can do a lot of damage this season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 51: Kings at Capitals, February 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The words “desperation” and “February” probably do not go together in a National Hockey League schedule, especially when the team in question has an eight-point lead in the standings over their nearest playoff challenger.

However, the Washington Capitals might feel a hint of desperation as they host the Los Angeles Kings at Verizon Center on Tuesday night.  The Caps go in to this contest having lost six of their last seven games (1-4-2), dropping them to fourth place in the Metropolitan Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference.

If they Caps might have a hint of desperation about them, the Kings might be characterized as bewildered.  Twice a Stanley Cup winner in the past three seasons, the Kings find themselves on the outside looking in at a playoff berth, three points behind the Calgary Flames for the last spot among playoff eligibles with a game in hand on the Flames (going into Monday's games).

The bewilderment over the Kings is their prolonged slide down the standings.  On December 4th, the Kings beat the Arizona Coyotes for their third win in four games. They were 14-7-5, fourth in the Pacific Division and seventh in the Western Conference.  Since then, however, the Kings are 7-9-7 and have slipped to fifth in the division and ninth in the conference.

There are two things that jump out from that record for the Kings.  First, they give up too many goals – 3.09 per game over that 23-game stretch, not counting trick shot tallies.  The second is that they have had either bad luck or bad performances in extra time.  Los Angeles has lost all seven extra time decisions over this 23-game span, three in overtime and four in the freestyle competition.

The too many goals problem might be one of too many shots.  Consider that last season, number one goaltender Jonathan Quick compiled a 2.07 goals against average with just a .915 save percentage.  He was able to do that facing just 24.4 shots per 60 minutes.  This season Quick has a .912 save percentage, but his goals against average is a comparatively hefty 2.47.  He is facing 28.0 shots per 60 minutes.  While the Kings remain a stingy lot in allowing shots on goal (sixth fewest per game in the league), the increase in Quick’s goals against average is almost entirely attributable to that increase in shots allowed.  And, truth be told, Quick has not been the most efficient of goaltenders since he took over the number one duties in the 2008-2009 season.  Only once in seven seasons, including this one, has he had a save percentage over .920, not what one might expect for a goalie whose goals against average over that same span is 2.29.

It is time for others to step up, and this brings us to the curious case of Anze Kopitar.  Long held by the “smart” crowd as one of the top forwards in the game that few pay attention to (and they’re right), there has been a marked slide in Kopitar’s game, at least in a statistic that same smart crowd sneers at.  Consider, when Alex Ovechkin had his minus-35 last year, he suffered a net drop of 37 points from hi previous season (from plus-2 to minus-35).  So far this season Kopitar, who finished last season at plus-34, is at minus-6, a net drop of 40 points.  No one is going to argue that Ovechkin is the defensive player that Kopitar is, but Kopitar is on a pace to score nearly as many points this season (68) as last (70).  However, he is on a pace to be on ice for 18 more goals this year (77) than last (59).  It is an odd development.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  The Kings have played ten road games in this 7-9-7 slide.  Their power play is 5-for-34 (14.7 percent); their penalty kill is 16-for-25 (64.0 percent).  A special teams index of 78.7 over a 10-road game stretch might not be sustainable (if only by accident), but it has been a problem for this team and a contributor to a 2-6-2 record in those games.

2.  The Kings are the worst team in the league in winning percentage in games decided by one goal.  That’s right…worst.  Nearly half their games have ended in one-goal decisions (24 of 49), and they have won just six times (.250 winning percentage).  They lost six straight such decisions before they beat Chicago, 4-3, last Wednesday.  They have one one-goal victory on the road this season, a 3-2 New Year’s Day win against the Vancouver Canucks (1-4-6).

3.  At a high level, the Kings are a remarkably unremarkable team, a “middle-20” sort of squad…

• Scoring Offense: 16th
• Scoring Defense: 13th
• 5-on-5 For/Against: 11th
• Win Pct. When Leading After 1st Period: T-18th
• Win Pct. When Trailing After 1st Period: 18th
• Penalty Minutes/Game: 17th

4.  Where the Kings are extraordinary is in extra time.  They stink.  Their 12 losses in extra time is the most in the league, and no team has fewer wins (2).

5.  They do hit, though.  Los Angeles leads the league in total hits, and it does not appear to be aided by friendly official scoring at home (home: 33.1/game; road: 32.3/game).

1.   The Caps have one of the best power plays in the league (23.5 percent, third overall).  Their penalty killers have been better of late, allowing the Caps to climb to 18th in the league.  So, the special teams goal differential should be tilted in the positive direction, right?  Not as much as you think.  Net power play goals scored (goals scored less shorthanded goals allowed): 34.  Net power play goals against (goals allowed less shorthanded goals scored): 32.

2.  Since the Caps beat Philadelphia in a 1-0 shutout on January 14th, they are allowing 3.14 goals per game.  In two of those games the Caps shut out opponents in regulation time.  In the other five games they allowed four or more goals.

3.  Over the first half of the season the Caps were among the leaders in fewest shots allowed per game.  They have slipped recently.  Starting with a 3-0 shutout win over Pittsburgh, the Caps have allowed 30 or more shots in 12 of 16 games and averaged 31.1 shots allowed per game.  They have dropped to 12th in shots allowed per game for the season (28.9).

4.  Only three teams have been called for more minor penalties than the Caps (196) this season: Columbus (202), Pittsburgh (221), and Winnipeg (250).

5.  Avert your eyes at this next one… The Caps have lost seven straight games to the Kings (0-5-2), ten of their last 12 contests, and they have a 5-15-2 record, with another three games ending in ties, over their last 25 games against Los Angeles.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Jake Muzzin

Who is Jake Muzzin, you ask?  First, he is a defenseman for the Kings.  Oh sure, folks know Drew Doughty and the frequent mentions of his being among the top defensemen in the game.  Folks might even know Alec Martinez, if only for his Stanley Cup-clinching goal in last spring’s finals.  Caps fans would even remember Jeff Schultz (nine games this season, 0-1-1, plus-1…still a “plus” player).  But Jake Muzzin?  He is something of a specialist.  While he has a team-worst minus-9 among defensemen (the only “minus” player in fact), he leads the Kings’ defensemen in goals (6), power play goals (3), power play points (12), and has the only three game-winning goals from Kings blueliners this season.  Pay attention.  He has two assists in two career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Jack Hillen

Jack Hillen has had something of an odd season.  First, there have not been the near-season-ending injuries to start his campaign that he suffered the last two years (thank heavens).  More to the point, though, in 25 games he has been on ice for only 11 goals scored by the Caps, despite skating 59 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes with Mike Green, more than any other Capital (Hillen has almost no time on ice on special teams).  Despite the friendly pairing, Hillen averages more minutes per goal on ice scored (28.2) than any other Capital defenseman.  Dmitry Orlov might have filled that role as a third pair defenseman with Green, and Nate Schmidt did before being sent down to Hershey and then sustaining an injured shoulder.  But Hillen is in the role now, and the Caps could use some more production from that position.  In eight career appearances against Los Angeles, Hillen does not have a point.

In the end…

The Caps had a difficult schedule in December, 12 straight contests against Eastern Conference opponents to close the year.  They did quite well, going 8-1-3 in those games.  They are in the midst of a difficult part of their schedule now, one that has included and will include Pittsburgh (three times), Anaheim (twice), St. Louis, San Jose, Winnipeg, the New York Islanders, and the Kings by the end of February.  So far, the Caps are not having as much success (a win over Pittsburgh, losses to Montreal and St. Louis to start this stretch).

Washington will get a Kings team that is struggling a lot, especially with goaltending, special teams, and close games (not a lot left after that).  You could say that they are ripe for the picking but for the fact that the Caps have had struggles of their own.  It will make for an interesting game, one that both teams really need against what for each is a vulnerable opponent.

Capitals 4 – Kings 2

A NO-Point Night -- Game 50: Blues 4 - Capitals 3

After 50 games, there are some things you see in a team that you like, and there are others you see that you don’t.  There were aspects of both on display as the Washington Capitals played their 50^th game of the season, dropping a 4-3 decision to the St. Louis Blues at Verizon Center.

It was a battle of teams on streaks, the Blues having won four in a row and not having lost in regulation time ten games (9-0-1).  The Caps came into the game not having lost in regulation time on home ice in ten straight games (8-0-2).

St. Louis opened the scoring just 2:34 into the game after Jay Beagle took a slashing penalty to put the Blues on a power play.  Alex Steen darted in from the right win faceoff dot to pounce on a rebound to give the Blues the first lead of the contest.  For the Caps, who came into the game with a 1-13-6 record when scored upon first, it was a bad sign. 

Alex Ovechkin evened the game mid-way through the period with a power play goal of his own in a case of, if at first you don’t succeed, try again.  After having a one-timer from the left wing circle turned aside by goalie Brian Elliott, the puck was worked around the perimeter until it came to Ovechkin for another one-timer attempt.  This one found the back of the net past Elliott’s blocker, and the game was tied, remaining so as the teams went to the first intermission.

Steen would break the tie in the 12^th minute of the second period when he walked between defensemen Brooks Orpik and John Carlson, and received a pass from T.J. Oshie.  Steen’s first attempt from point-blank range was stopped by goalie Justin Peters, but Peters could not cover the loose puck, and Steen slid it into the back of the net to make it 2-1, Blues.

Ovechkin tied it once more less than three minutes later on what was a fine play by Nicklas Backstrom to set him up.  After Jay Bouwmeester picked up a puck left for him behind the cage by Elliot and skated out, he was challenged by Ovechkin and threw a pass off the wall in an attempt to clear the zone.  Backstrom intercepted the puck just as it reached the blue line and threw a pass across his body to Ovechkin.  From the left wing circle, Ovechkin snapped a shot past Elliott on the far side, and the game was tied once more.

Less than two minutes after that goal, St. Louis regained the lead it would not relinquish.  A pinballing puck found its way onto the stick of Dmitrij Jaskin, who snapped it past Peters’ right pad to make it 3-2 heading into the second intermission.  It was another bad sign for the Caps, who were one of four teams in the league not to have won a game when trailing at the second intermission this season (0-9-2).

Vladimir Tarasenko scored what would be the game-winning goal in the seventh minute of the third period, converting a 2-on-1 break with Steen, blasting a one-timer past Peters’ glove to make it 4-2, Blues. 

Karl Alzner added to his career-best goal-scoring total with his fourth goal of the season.  Taking a pass from Mike Green at the left point, Alzner held the puck, then worked himself for a shooting angle clear of Marcel Goc, who was guarding him.  With Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Tom Wilson all in front screening Elliott, Alzner’s floater of a shot caught Elliott by surprise, sailing past his glove to get the Caps within a goal at 4-3 at the 12:28 mark.

That would be as close as the Caps would get, though.  The Caps would get only three more shots on goal, all of them turned aside by Elliott, and the Caps lost their second straight game and sixth in their last seven contests, 4-3.

Other stuff…

-- Ovechkin became the fifth player in NHL history to score 30 or more goals in his first ten seasons in the NHL, joining Mike Bossy, Mike Gartner, Wayne Gretzky, and Jari Kurri on that list.  Gartner did it in his first 15 seasons, stopped only by the 1994-1995 lockout that reduced the season to 48 games.  He had 30-plus goal seasons in each of the two seasons that followed.

-- With his two goals, Ovechkin has 15 in his last 15 games.  It was his fourth multi-goal game in his last seven games, and his three points was his fifth multi-point game in his last seven contests.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a pair of assists, giving him four multi-point games in his last seven contests and 16 for the season.  He is tied for fourth in the league in multi-point games this season, behind Jakub Voracek and Ovechkin (17 apiece), and Ryan Getzlaf (18).

-- Mike Green had a pair of assists, his fourth multi-point game in his last seven contests and 11^th of the season.  He is tied with Pittsburgh’s Kris Letang for the most multi-point games by a defenseman this season.

-- If your backup goaltender is struggling, you probably do not want him facing a lot of shots.  St. Louis recorded 40 shots on goal against Justin Peters, the first time the Caps gave up 40 or more shots since November 7^th, when the Caps yielded 40 shots on goal in a 3-2 win in Chicago over the Blackhawks. 

-- The Caps have to be concerned about their basic defense in one respect.  The Caps have allowed four goals or more in five of their last seven games, the other two being shutouts in regulation time by Braden Holtby.

-- St. Louis was credited with 35 hits on the game, half of them by two players – Ryan Reaves (10 in just 12:17 of ice time) and Steve Ott (7).

-- Odd stat…the teams combined for a credited ten giveaways.  Three of them were by goaltenders (Peters: 2, Elliott: 1).

-- With four goals on the season now, Karl Alzner has matched the total of his last three seasons, combined.

-- Score effects… the Caps had 16 of 18 skaters with positive Corsi plus-minus when trailing by two goals.  When tied, they had three skaters with positive Corsi plus-minus.  If you’re playing along at home, that’s not too good.

In the end…

After 50 games, Alex Ovechkin is back on top of the goal scoring race, and Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green are making important contributions on the offensive side of the puck.  Those are things Caps fans see that they like.  On the other hand, the Caps can’t win when scored upon first, can’t win when heading into the third period behind on the scoreboard, and can’t seem to win one-goal games, which is a real problem since they play so many of them (32, most in the league but with the sixth worst winning percentage).  Obviously, these are things that Caps fans don’t like.

At the end of the weekend, the Caps find themselves in eighth place in the Eastern Conference.  They have an eight-point lead on ninth-place Florida, but the Panthers hold three games in hand.  It does not take long for the collars to get a bit tight.  And, this one-goal game trend is not something that the Caps are handling particularly well, having lost their last six one-goal decisions (0-4-2).  The Caps have only four standings points in their last seven games, and it is not getting easier.  Washington hosts the Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday, then get yet another back-to-back set of games to end the week.  What is a pinhole prick in the balloon letting out air could pop pretty quickly unless the Caps find a way to reverse some worrisome trends they have forged over their first 50 games.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 17

For the Washington Capitals, Week 17 was one spinning their wheels, not an uncommon occurrence on the slippery roads of winter, but something to be avoided on the hockey rink in January in a tough division race.  As even as it was for the week, it could have been much more…could have been.

Record: 1-1-1

The Caps were a coat of paint away from making it a 2-1-0 week, at the very least.  Three times in the second period of their 1-0 overtime loss to Montreal, Capital shooters hit iron with Alex Ovechkin, Joel Ward, and John Carlson playing the chimes for the Caps (Montreal had one of their own shots ping out, one by P.K. Subban in the third period off the same iron).  A poor third period did them in against Columbus to start the week, but even there the Caps almost made up three two-goal deficits.  At the end of the week, though, it was their third straight .500 week in standings points.

Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.92/game; rank: T-8th)

It was not so much the goals themselves as the deployment of players that stood out this week.  The audition for a winger to play alongside of Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin continues.  In the first game of the week Andre Burakovsky got the call and scored a goal (secondary assist to Backstrom), then sat for the last two games of the week.  Eric Fehr and Tom Wilson got some time, but the bulk of the even strength time on the top line in the last two games of the week featured Jay Beagle skating with the big guns.  Backstrom (an assist) and Ovechkin (a goal) had one point apiece in the last two games.  Yup…the audition continues.

Defense: 1.67/game (season: 2.47/game; rank: T-8th)

Odd week.  In the two losses the Caps had positive Corsi values in both games (plus-10/53.1 percent combined), while they were underwater in their 4-0 win over Pittsburgh (minus-5/47.3 percent).  Even tied or leading by one-goal against the Penguins, the Caps were well under 50 percent (minus-10/41.9 percent).  They did a credible job managing shots, allowing an average of 29 per game for the week, none of them ending with more than 30 shots against.  They allowed fewer than ten attempts in five of the nine regulation periods for the week.  The Caps did an especially good job of denying teams from getting pucks all the way through from long range against Montreal, allowing only four of 22 shot attempts from defensemen on net.

Goaltending: 1.65 / .943 / 1 SO   (season: 2.42 / .915 / 5 shutouts)

Braden Holtby found himself in a bit of a slump, allowing four goals in three consecutive games (including against Columbus to open Week 17), the first time he allowed four or more in three straight games since allowing four in each of three games to end October and begin November.  However, he was superb in the last two games of the week, allowing one overtime goal on 57 shots.  The down side of all of this is speculative, but the fact is that Holtby has appeared in 31 of the Caps’ last 32 games.  Is it making a difference?  Not yet, if one looks at those 31 appearances in ten-game segments (11 for the last one).  In the first ten of those 31 games, Holtby was 6-3-1, 2.34, .923.  In the second ten he was 6-1-3, 2.06, .930, with two shutouts.  Finally, Holtby was 6-2-3, 2.07, .929, with two shutouts in his last 11 games.  It is tempting fate to lean on him so hard, but so far it has not yet degraded his game.

Power Play: 1-for-11 / 9.1 percent (season: 23.3 percent; rank: 4^th)

Week 17 was the worst week of the season for the Caps to date.  One goal on 24 shots in nine opportunities.  A lot of that was Carey Price, who stopped all 11 power play shots he faced in Montreal’s 1-0 overtime win over the Caps to end the week.  In one respect, 24 shots on goal in 20:52 of power play time is not bad from an efficiency standpoint.  It was an odd week, shooting-wise, in one respect.  In the games against Columbus and Pittsburgh to start the week, the Caps had 14 shots, and they came from the guys the Caps would have wanted shooting the puck – Alex Ovechkin (6), Mike Green (4), Nicklas Backstrom (3) accounting for 13 of the 14 shots over those two games.  In the game against Montreal, the shot profile was almost entirely different.  Ovechkin had two, but the others came from Joel Ward (3), John Carlson (2), Brooks Laich (2),and Troy Brouwer (1).  The top power play unit was nullified very effectively by the Canadiens, making things that much easier for Carey Price.

Penalty Killing: 12-for-12 / 100.0 percent / (season: 81.0 percent; rank: 18th)

On the other side of the special teams ledger, the Caps had their best record of the season.  It was their first perfect performance since Week 7 and fourth of the season.  The 12 power plays killed is the most for the Caps in a perfect week this year.  It is part of a longer streak of penalty killing success that the Caps have had – 40-for-45 over their last 12 games (88.9 percent).  It was an efficient, as well as effective week for the Caps.  They allowed only 13 shots in 22:09 of shorthanded ice time.  Their performance against Pittsburgh in the middle game of the week was excellent.  Even with Evgeni Malkin out of the lineup, the Caps allowed only two shots (both by David Perron) in 6:09 a man short.  A goaltender often needs to be a team’s best penalty killer, but in Week 17, the skaters killing off penalties did a fine job.

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 6-5 / even (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.12; rank: T-9th)

The Caps got behind the eight-ball early in the week in getting outscored at even strength by a 4-2 margin against the Columbus Blue Jackets, but they reversed that in the 4-0 shutout of the Penguins, scoring three even strength goals in that contest. That the Caps would allow only one even strength goal on 50 shots in the last 137:48 of the week, and that one at 4-on-4 in overtime to Montreal speaks to the discipline the Caps have been able to display on defense as well as excellent goaltending.  As for that 4-on-4 goal, it was only the second one allowed by the Caps this season.

Faceoffs: 85-171 / 49.7 percent (season: 51.2 percent; rank: 10^th)

It was an even week overall for the Caps, but it was not that way in the game-by-game or underlying results.  Overall, the Caps struggled in the offensive zone for the week, winning only 24 of 55 faceoffs (43.6 percent), offsetting a winning week in the defensive end (32-for-62/51.6 percent) and the neutral zone (29-for-54/53.7 percent).  The Caps had a big night against the Penguins in the middle game of the week (39-for-63/61.9 percent), but they were well under 50 percent in the other two games (43.4 percent against Columbus, 41.8 percent against Montreal). 

Goals by Period:

It was slow start this week in the first period for both the Caps and their opponents.  Alex Ovechkin scored the only goal for the Caps in the opening frame for the week, getting the Caps started just 4:50 into their 4-0 win over Pittsburgh in the middle game of the week.  Washington held all three opponents without a first period goal.  The second period was a different story, and it was told in two parts.  There was the second period shootout against Columbus in which the Blue Jackets scored three times, twice getting out to two-goal leads with the Caps scoring twice themselves to inch to within a goal.  The Caps used the second period against Pittsburgh to purchase some insurance in the form of another Ovechkin goal to put the Caps ahead, 2-0.  The third period had the bad and the good (and the bad).  Against Columbus the Caps scored once in the third period, but only after the Blue Jackets went out to their third two-goal lead of the game.  Against the Penguins the Caps sealed the deal with two third period goals.  In the game in Montreal to end the week, one goal would have been enough in the third period, but they came up dry on 10 shots, then failed to record a shot in overtime in their 1-0 loss to the Canadiens.

In the end…

How thin the margin is between success and a week spent treading water.  A one-goal loss and an overtime loss was the difference between going 3-0-0 and going 1-1-1.  The Caps have been doing that a lot lately.  In their last three weeks, all of which were .500 weeks, all five losses were by a single goal, two of them in extra time.  Two of their three wins were by that margin as well.  No team has played as many one-goal games as the Caps (31), and Colorado is the only one to have played as many.  Eleven of their last 13 games have ended in one-goal decisions (4-3-4), making the 4-0 whitewashing of the Penguins an especially welcome outcome. 

However, if the Caps are going to be playing like this, so close to the margin, they are going to have to do better.  They have the sixth-worst winning percentage in one-goal games (.387/12-9-10), they have the third-most extra time losses (10), only Colorado has more overtimes losses (7) than the Caps (6), and Washington has yet to win a game when trailing at the second intermission this season (0-9-2).  That is not a formula for success in the last ten weeks of the season.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (1-1-1, 1.65, .943, 1 shutout)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-0-2, even, 19 shots on goal, 34 shot attempts, seven hits)
• Third Star: Brooks Laich (0-1-1, even, 15:15 avg. ice time, 10 shots on goal, 11 shot attempts, eight hits, seven blocked shots)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 50: Blues at Capitals, February 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals close their second back-to-back set of games in a week when they host the St. Louis Blues this afternoon at Verizon Center.  The Caps will be getting right back on the horse, so to speak, after a gut-wrenching 1-0 overtime loss to the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre yesterday.

The Caps ran into a hot Montreal team yesterday, a club that had won four straight entering the contest.  They will do the same when they face the Blues, also winners of their last four contests.  In fact, St. Louis has not lost in regulation in their last ten contests (9-0-1).  They are doing it in a fashion that reflects their coaching. 

Ken Hitchcock coaches teams that are difficult to play against, limiting shots and goals, and fashioning a physical approach.  In their 9-0-1 run, the Blues have allowed a total of 19 goals and an average of 24.8 shots per game.  Only twice in that stretch have they allowed more than two goals in a game.

On the other hand, the Blues’ offense has been something to behold over this streak.  St. Louis has scored 42 goals over the ten games, including a pair of seven-goal efforts at the expense of the San Jose Sharks.  Fourteen players share in the 42 goals, and 18 skaters have recorded points.  The goal total is impressive, but it is heavily weighted among four players.  David Backes leads the charge with eight goals in his last ten games, including a four-goal effort against the Arizona Coyotes on January 6^th.  T.J. Oshie has seven goals in the 9-0-1 run, while Jaden Schwartz and Alexander Steen have six apiece.

Schwartz is perhaps the least known of this foursome to Capitals fans.  Now in his fourth season with St. Louis, Schwartz is developing into quite a goal-scorer.  Two years ago he finished with seven goals in 45 games, and last season he had 25 goals in 80 games.  This season, with 17 goals in 41 games, he is on a pace to finish with 31 goals for the season.  He does not have much exposure to the Caps in his brief career to date.  In three games against Washington, Schwartz is 1-1-2, plus-1.

While the goal scoring has come largely from the forwards in St. Louis’ recent success, the defense has contributed in stoking the fire.  Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo each have seven assists in the Blue’s last ten games.  Shattenkirk also contributed two goals.  He is second among the league’s defensemen in total scoring (42 points), trailing only Calgary’s Mark Giordano.  His 32 assists leads all NHL defensemen.

While the Blues were saying goodbye to goalie Martin Brodeur on the ice and welcoming him to the front office, Brian Elliott was adding to his resume in solid fashion over the past ten games.  Elliott made eight appearances, compiling a record of 6-0-1 (one no-decision), 2.04, .919, with two shutouts.  Elliott has three shutouts this season, and they are something of a reflection of the system in which he plays.  In none of them did he face more than 27 shots, and he faced and average of 22.7 shots in the three games.  Elliott is 5-2-0, 3.19, .881 in nine career appearances against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  St. Louis has a very respectable goals against average among their goaltenders (2.34).  Their combined save percentage of .913 is not especially impressive, although Elliott’s .943 save percentage at even strength is the best in the league among goalies playing in at least 20 games (note: Carey Price, who shut out the Caps yesterday, is second at .942).

2.  The Blues are the only team in the league with a goal differential of plus-8 or better in all three periods of games this season.  They are a plus-8 in the first period, plus-11 in the second, and plus-15 in the third.

3.  Only four teams so far this season have more wins by three or more goals than the Blues (11), and only four teams have a better winning percentage in such games (.688/11-5).

4.  The Blues have the best winning percentage among Western Conference teams against the East (.706/12-3-2) and are 8-1-0 against the Metropolitan Division.  They have not lost to a Metropolitan Division team since dropping a 3-2 decision to the New York Rangers on Opening Night.

5.  St. Louis is third in the league, behind Montreal and the Caps, in winning percentage when scoring first in games (.815/22-4-1).  Only five teams have a better winning percentage when scored upon first than the Blues (.429/9-9-3).

1.  Going into Sunday’s games, only five teams have played fewer home games than the Caps (23).  As a team that is 8-0-2 in their last ten home games, having so many home games coming over the next ten weeks is something that could bear dividends later in the season.

2.  Even when they are not playing one another, the Caps and the Penguins seem joined at the hip.  Going into Sunday’s games, the Caps and Penguins have identical numbers of goals scored (143) and goals allowed (121) in 49 games apiece.

3.  In their 8-0-2 record over their last ten home games, Washington has out-scored opponents by a 29-17 margin.  They have not been doing it by limiting shots (294 for, 295 against), but their special teams have been very good: 8-for-32 (25.0 percent) on the power play, 34-for-38 (89.5 percent) on the penalty kill.

4.  Note that shooting percentage for opponents in the Caps’ last ten home games (.058).  Goaltending, meaning Braden Holtby, has been superb.  Holtby appeared in all ten games, compiling a record of 8-0-2, 1.68, .942, with two shutouts.

5.  No team has more extra-time losses this season than the Caps (10, tied with Florida).  Six of those losses have come in overtime.  There, Holtby’s save percentage of .778 is fifth worst among goalies appearing in at least 20 games.  Not that four losses coming while shorthanded has anything to do with it, eh?

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Vladimir Tarasenko

Over his first 36 games, Vladimir Tarasenko was on a pace to finish with 50 goals.  Over his last 12 games, though, he has a total of two goals and is without one in his last five contests.  One might say he is shooting in bad luck, scoring those two goals on a total of 43 shots (4.7 percent).  On the other hand, it might be the pendulum swinging the other way after a hot first 36 games (17.9 percent on 22-for-123 shooting).  Still, he is on a pace to be only the second Blues player to finish with more than 40 goals (41) since Brett Hull was lighting things up for St. Louis in the mid-1990’s (Brad Boyes has 43 in 2007-2008).  Here is your fact of the day… Tarasenko does not have a goal on the road since December 6^th against the New York Islanders, nine games and counting.  In two career games against Washington he does not have a point.

Washington: Brooks Laich

As we noted in our post-game recap of the loss to Montreal Brooks Laich had a solid game – four shots on goal, five hits, three blocked shots, drew three penalties (one coincidental) and plus-13 in Corsi at 5-on-5.  It would be nice to get a bit more offensive production from him (no goals in his last ten games), but playing as he did yesterday, if he can continue it, is an important part of the sort of game the Caps play under Barry Trotz.  It is especially important against an opponent such as St. Louis, which plays such a heavy game itself.  Laich is 1-2-3 in eight career appearances against the Blues.

In the end…

With any team on a streak, you can see the streak coming or going before they start or end.  In the case of the Blues, on a ten-game points streak, you might be seeing the end coming from the results of their last two games, both Gimmick wins, one against a struggling opponent (Carolina).  Still, it is a club against which it is very hard to score (two or fewer goals allowed in five of their last six games).  The Caps have a tough task ahead, made tougher by 63 minutes of grind-it-out hockey against Montreal on Saturday afternoon with one point to show for it.  But the Caps have become a team that is hard to score against themselves (well, as long as Braden Holtby is in goal).  It might be a boring affair on Super Bowl Sunday, but if it ends in a win, that’s fine with us.

Capitals 2 – Blues 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 49: Capitals at Canadiens, January 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals are set to play the second half of back-to-back back-to-back games.  Fresh off a split of the first of these back-to-back games, a loss in Columbus to the Blue Jackets followed by a shutout win at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Caps will head to Montreal on Saturday to face the Canadiens before returning home on Super Bowl Sunday to host the St. Louis Blues.

When the Caps take the ice at Bell Centre on Saturday, they will be facing a Montreal Canadiens team that is on one of its streaks that have characterized their season to date.  Over their first 47 games, Montreal as recorded two three-game winning streaks, two four-game winning streaks, and two six-game winning streaks.  They also have three three-game losing streaks on their record.  They bring a four-game winning streak into Saturday’s game against Washington.

In their four-game winning streak, the Habs have done it with goaltending, specifically that of Carey Price.  Appearing in the last three games of this streak, Price allowed only three goals on 103 shots. A .971 save percentage.  It is part of a sustained run of fine performances by Price, who has allowed more than two goals in an appearance only once in his last 15 games (12-2-1, 1.53, .949, one shutout).  He is a top-five goalie in wins (26) and save percentage (.931), third in both, and he is second in even-strength save percentage (.940) among goalies appearing in at least 20 games.  Success against the Caps has been much harder to come by for Price.  In 16 career appearances he is 4-9-3, 3.24, .894.

Offense has been an intermittent thing with the Canadiens in their four-game streak.  They pounded the New York Islanders for six goals in a 6-4 win on January 17th to start the streak, the only Eastern Conference team to score as many as six goals against the Isles this season (St. Louis has done it twice).  In their last three games, however, Montreal has only a total of six goals, twice being held to one goal in regulation (a 2-1 overtime win over Nashville and a 1-0 win over the Rangers).

Alex Galchenyuk has three of the 12 goals the Canadiens have in their winning streak.  The former third-overall draft pick has not broken out in a big way in his third season in Montreal, but he is showing steady improvement in his production.  After a rookie season in which he finished with nine goals in 48 games, he had 13 in 65 games last season.  This season, with 13 in 47 games, he is on a pace to finish 23 goals.  If he can get to 25 he would be only the 17th player at age 20 or younger on February 1st to reach that mark since the 2004-2005 lockout.  In six career games against the Caps, Galchenyuk is 0-3-3, even.

The leading overall scorer for the Canadiens over their winning streak (five assists) is Andrei Markov.  Robbed of much of the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 seasons to knee and ankle injuries, Markov has missed only one game in the last three seasons.  At age 36, he is still a reliable half-point-per-game scorer from the blue line (27 in 47 games this season).  And, only P.K. Subban logs more ice time (25:25/game) than Markov (24:37).  Markov has 39 career appearances against the Caps and is 1-19-20, plus-13.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  Carey Price: 26-10-2, 2.09, .931, three shutouts.  Dustin Tokarski: 5-3-1, 2.50, .917.  Whatever Tokarski’s potential (and those are not bad numbers for a backup), as goes Price, so go the Canadiens.  The Habs are 5-7-1 when Price allows more than two goals, 1-6-0 when he allows more than three.

2.  This does not prevent Montreal from being successful in a broad range of outcomes.  They are fifth in the league in winning percentage in one-goal games (.650/13-4-3), tops in the league in two-goal decisions (.889/8-1), and they hold their own in decisions of three or more goals (10-8).

3. What Montreal is, is a front runner.  Get a lead, and they tend to finish with one.  They lead the league in winning percentage when scoring first (.905/19-1-1), although oddly enough they do not often carry a lead into the first intermission.  No team in the league has held a lead after 20 minutes fewer times than Montreal (9).

4.  Montreal has a strange plus-minus profile at the individual level.  One might expect, whether a team is good or bad at even strength, a reasonably continuous range of values for that statistic.  And, with the Canadiens there is, ranging from plus-11 on the high side to minus-9 on the low side of 26 skaters.  The 27th skater, though, is Max Pacioretty, who is quite an outlier at plus-23, the sixth-highest mark in the league.  It blows away his previous career best (plus-8, set twice).

5.  One might think that the pressure a crowd can put on officials would result in the Canadiens getting a lot of “home town” calls.  They do not, at least as far as getting power plays is concerned.  Montreal has the fifth-fewest power play opportunities in the league so far, and the differential between power plays and shorthanded situations is virtually a draw (minus-2) on Bell Centre ice.

1.  For the Capitals, getting power plays on the road is a rare occurrence.  With only 65 power plays awarded this season, the Caps rank 27th in total road power plays.

2.  The Caps are the only team in the Eastern Conference with a goal differential in each regulation period of plus-5 or better.  And here is something to watch.  The Caps have more than twice as many goals scored in the first period as does Montreal (41-20).

3.  When the Caps are held even in shots or are outshot by opponents, their record is 15-4-5.  When out-shooting their opponents, their record is 10-10-4.  Go figure.

4.  “Caps” burglars…Washington leads the league in takeaways in road games, and by a healthy margin (185) over Carolina in second (172).  Take that fact with a grain of salt, depending on who is doing the counting of takeaways.

5.  This is the first of two meetings this season at Bell Centre between these clubs.  The Caps are 8-0-1 in their last nine visits to Montreal, outscoring the Canadiens by a 33-14 margin, with four shutouts on the ledger.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Sergei Gonchar

Sergei Gonchar got a late start on the 2014-2015 season, missing the first 11 games of the campaign to a broken ankle.  Then, on November 11th, he was acquired by the Canadiens from the Dallas Stars for forward Travis Moen.  Montreal is Gonchar’s sixth team, starting with the Capitals, in what is now a 20-season career.  He is one of the few players left in the league to have played through each of the last two NHL lockouts (the 1994-1995 season was his rookie year with Washington).  At age 40, there can’t be much left in the tank, or is there?  In 31 games with the Canadiens he is averaging more than 19 minutes a game, fourth among defensemen in ice time.  He is also fourth in points among that group despite appearing in more than ten fewer games than each of the defensemen ahead of him (he is also the only Montreal defenseman to win a faceoff this season, so there is that, too).  Gonchar is not the point-producer he was earlier in his career, but he is 0-7-7 in his last 13 games.  In 30 career games against his former team, he is 6-17-23, minus-1.

Washington: Justin Peters

This being the second back-to-back set of games this week for the Caps, one has to think backup goaltender Justin Peters is going to get one of these weekend games.  He has not done particularly well in the chances he has been given, and that is especially true on the road, where he is 0-3-0, 4.13, .856 in four appearances.  Perhaps an afternoon game will be more to his liking; he has not played in the daylight yet this season.  He is also 2-2-0, 3.33, .866 in five Saturday appearances.  Peters has not allowed fewer than three goals in an appearance since beating Florida in a shootout, 2-1, back on October 18th.  He has to start picking up the slack sometime, though, and this weekend might be where he starts.  Peters is 0-2-0, 4.22, .851 in three career appearances against Montreal.

In the end…

These teams are separated by six points in the Eastern Conference standings, and with a win in regulation time the Caps could crawl within four points of the Canadiens and three of the Pittsburgh Penguins for fifth place in the conference.  Games in January and February tend to have a same vague feel about them, but it remains that that the Caps face a difficult schedule over the next four weeks and cannot afford a letdown.  Montreal has been a friendly place to visit in recent years, and no doubt the Canadiens are taking note of that fact.  Still, the Caps do seem to have found a way when they have had to for solving Carey Price in goal.  Count on that being the secret ingredient for a happy ending.

Capitals 3 – Canadiens 2