The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 82: Rangers at Capitals, April 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The curtain comes down on the 2014-2015 regular season on Saturday afternoon at Verizon Center, but not before the Washington Capitals host the New York Rangers in the fourth and final meeting of the clubs this season.

The Rangers lead the season series, having won the first two games this season, but the Caps scored four unanswered goals in the second and third periods to defeat the Rangers, 5-2, at Madison Square Garden in their most recent meeting.

It could be said that both clubs are happy with their momentum heading into the post season.  Washington is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games, scoring 35 goals in those games and limiting opponents to 27.  Meanwhile, the Rangers have built and sustained a remarkable record since they were just 11-10-4 after a 3-2 loss in Detroit on December 6th.  Since then, New York is 41-12-3, a 124-point pace over 82 games.

More recently, the Rangers had a five-game winning streak stopped on Thursday night, 3-0, by the Ottawa Senators.  The loss might be forgiven for a number of reasons – the Rangers were coming down off their Presidents Trophy-clinching win against New Jersey on Tuesday; and they sat out Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello, and Marc Staal.  Defenseman Kevin Klein missed another game from a broken arm suffered against the Caps on March 11^th.

As it is, the Rangers still outscored their opponents by a 20-13 margin in their last six games (5-1-0) since dropping that 5-2 decision to the Caps on March 29th.  Their special teams have been uneven over those games, the power play just 3-for-22 (13.6 percent) and only 1-for-18 (5.6 percent) since they scored a power play goal in the first period in a 3-2 win over Minnesota on April 2^nd. 

The penalty kill has been a different story.  The Rangers are 14-for-15 over their last six games (93.3 percent), part of a longer run of success in which they are 53-for-58 (91.4 percent) over their last 21 games.  Part of the success here has also been limiting opportunities.  Only once in their last six games, and only four times in their last 21 contests, have the Rangers faced more than three shorthanded situations.

Over their 5-1-0 run the Rangers have enjoyed balance in their scoring.  Fourteen different players have goals, and 17 different players have points in the six games.  The goal scoring involves the expected and the unexpected.  Derek Stepan has 16 goals on the season, tied for sixth on the club.  Three of them came over the past six games, including the overtime game-winner in a 4-3 win over Columbus last Monday. Stepan has been on something of a tear of late, going 5-7-12, plus-8, over his last 11 games.  He is 5-3-8, minus-1, in 18 career games against the Capitals.

The other three-goal scorer over the Rangers’ 5-1-0 run is Dominic Moore.  Even with the three goals over his last six games, Moore has not cracked double-digits in goals; he has nine in 81 games this season.  The burst ended a long drought in which he recorded a single goal over a 24-game span. Moore, in his tenth season and his ninth different team (he was drafted by the Rangers in 2000 before starting his league tour), has been more of a checking forward with the occasional spasms of goal scoring (13 in 81 games with Toronto and Buffalo in 2008-2009 and 18 ub 77 games with Tampa Bay in 2010-2011).  The nine goals he has in 81 games this season is almost as many as he recorded (10) in 152 games over the previous two seasons with Tampa Bay, San Jose, and the Rangers.  Moore is 3-7-10, minus-4, in 31 career games against Washington.

Ryan McDonagh led the defense in scoring over the last half dozen games (1-5-6).  The Captain is not having quite the season he had offensively last season; he is 8-24-32 in 70 games versus 14-29-43 in 77 games last season.  However, his defensive numbers are puzzling.  His season Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 is 48.1, not especially indicative of being a top-end possession player.  His Corsi-for/relative of -1.62 is another such indicator.  However, he does have some hard minutes to play with an offensive zone start percentage of 45.1 (numbers from war-on-ice.com and behindthenet.ca).  The trouble is not his alone, though.  The Rangers are not a particularly effective possession team, more or less living off their PDO number (sum of shooting and save percentages).

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Winning the Presidents Trophy is not a good indicator of post-season success.  The trophy has been awarded 28 times before this season.  Only eight times has the winner gone on to win the Stanley Cup, and only once was it done by an Eastern Conference team – the Rangers in 1994.

2.  Now, about those possession and PDO numbers.  The Rangers rank 20^th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.5) and 19^th in Fenwick-for percentage (49.5).  Those numbers are not appreciably better in close score situations, 49.8 and 49.7, respectively (ranked 19^th and 20^th, respectively).  However, their PDO of 101.9 ranks first at 5-on-5 overall, and first overall in close score situations at 102.2 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

3.  What the Rangers do quite well is get off to fast starts.  They lead the league in first period goals (82), lead the league in first period goal differential (plus-28), are tied for the league lead in scoring first in games (49, with Winnipeg), and is third in the league in leads taken to the first intermission (33, one behind Pittsburgh and Winnipeg).

4.  Odd Rick Nash fact… No player in the league this season other than Nash has a combination of at least six power play goals and at least four shorthanded goals.

5.  The Rangers’ team plus-minus on the road is best in the league (plus-30) and is almost twice as good as their closest pursuer (Anaheim: plus-16).

1.  In their 9-2-1 record over their last dozen games, special teams for the Caps have been quite special overall.  The power play is 8-for-29 (27.6 percent), while the penalty killers are 30-for-36 (83.3 percent), a special teams index of 110.9.

2.  In all three losses over that 12-game span, the Caps fell into an 0-3 deficit – to Winnipeg (lost, 3-0), to Nashville (lost, 4-3), and to Ottawa (lost in overtime, 4-3).

3.  In their last dozen games the Caps have had 18 skaters and one goalie (Braden Holtby) record points.  The leader among them in that span is Matt Niskanen (1-9-10).  His goal came in the Caps’ last game, a 3-0 shutout of Boston and was Niskanen’s first goal scored in April of the regular season since April 3, 2008, when he scored a goal in a 4-2 win over the Phoenix Coyotes.  The streak was stopped at 37 games.

4. Alex Ovechkin leads the league in goals; he leads the Caps in goals over their 9-2-1 run (seven).  What he does not have is a goal in any of his last three games.  It is his third three-game streak without a goal in his last 13 games overall.  He also has three multi-goal games in that span.

5.  Washington’s possession numbers over their 9-2-1 run are solid.  At 5-on-5 overall the Caps have Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages of 52.4 and 52.6, respectively.  In close score situations those numbers are 52.4 and 52.0, respectively (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Henrik Lundqvist

The New York Rangers got perhaps more than anyone could have dreamed from Cam Talbot in goal when Henrik Lundqvist went down with a neck injury suffered against Carolina on January 31^st.  However, it is Lundqvist who had the 92 games of playoff experience, it is Lundqvist who has a Stanley Cup final appearance on his resume.  And, it is likely that if the Rangers are to be successful in the 2015 post season, it will be up to Lundqvist to perform at that level once more.  Lundqvist returned to the lineup on March 28^th, and in six appearances since his return he is 4-2-0, 2.32, .925, and he has allowed more than two goals only once in his last five games.  It appears he is back.  This game has meaning for Lundqvist, should he get the call.  In eight full NHL seasons (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) Lundqvist has never won fewer than 30 games.  He has 29 wins this season.  Lundqvist is 17-8-3, 2.53, .909, with four shutouts in 28 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

The end-game of the regular season is shaking out in an odd way for the Caps.  Evgeny Kuznetsov, who is not going to be the Calder Trophy winner many thought he could be this season as the league’s top rookie, is setting himself up to be perhaps the Caps’ “wild card” performer for the post season.  Kuznetsov is 5-8-13, plus-6, in his last 16 games for Washington and has held his own centering Alex Ovechkin in recent games.  Whether that combination survives into the post season, or if Ovechkin is once more paired with Nicklas Backstrom, Kuznetsov is performing at a level more in line with what fans might have hoped for when the season started.  He has proven to be an efficient scorer, too.  Despite his 13:16 of ice time per game, 72^nd among league rookies, he is tied for 15^th in goals (11), and he is ninth in total points (37).  Only Johnny Gaudreau (21) and Filip Forsberg (19) have more power play points than Kuznetsov (13).  He is 1-1-2, even, in three career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

When the teams take the ice on Saturday afternoon, 184 days will have passed since the Capitals opened their season in Montreal, and the Rangers opened their season in St. Louis.  It is hard to know what to make of the Rangers.  They have the league’s best record, but it has not been a product of sterling possession numbers.  That PDO number stands out and makes one wonder if there is a “correction” of sorts in the Rangers’ future, or if they are just that good, regardless of what the fancystats say.

On the other hand there are the Caps, the earnest tortoise to the Rangers’ hare, slowly and methodically reaching the 100 point mark for the eighth time in franchise history with a chance to become the fifth ranked club in standings points in franchise history (yes, in part fueled by the three-point game of this era of hockey).  The Caps have only one winning streak as long as four games this season, but they have another eight three-game winning streaks and could have a ninth with a win on Saturday.  Only once in eight ten-game segments this season have the Caps failed to earn at least ten points.  It is a mark of their consistency this season.

There might be points of pride for both clubs to make in Saturday’s game, and they should not be dismissed.  And, the Caps might still have the matter of seeding in the first round, whether they have home ice advantage or not.  However, each team has much larger stakes to worry about starting next week.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 81: Bruins at Capitals, April 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“…with his practiced, pragmatic, praiseworthy, penultimate prediction of…”

You done prattling on, Fearless?

“Sorry…”

“I thought it was too prolix, myself…”

My, my , Cheerless…a multi-syllable word that did not end in “weiser.”

“I think Blatz is more his speed, cousin.”

Well, guys, were down to it, the last week of the season, and the Caps are in the playoffs.  Now it’s for seeding…

“…speakin’ o’ which, the blackbirds are eating all the seed you put down in the back yard…”

As I was saying, now it’s for seeding, but there are still chances to secure a high seed and opportunities to see how the Caps measure up against stiff opposition.  First up is the Boston Bruins on Wednesday night.  The Bruins come to Washington clinging by a bear claw to a playoff spot.  While they are still fourth in the Atlantic Division, they are tied with the Ottawa Senators in standings points (95) for what could be the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Bruins have been “streaking” their way to the finish, and we don’t mean in the au naturel sense of college students in the 1970’s.  Three streaks have defined their last month of play.  Starting with an overtime win against the Philadelphia Flyers on April 7th, the Bruins have had a winning streak of five games (two of them in extra time), a losing streak of six games (0-3-3), and a winning streak of five games (two of them in extra time) that they bring to Verizon Center.

Simply put, the Bruins have put the fate of their season in the hands of goaltender Tuukka Rask.  And, he has been up to the challenge, at least in the five-game winning streak.  He was the goalie of record in each of the five wins on the Bruins latest streak (he left early with dehydration in a 4-2 win over the Rangers on March 28th) and posted a goals against average of 1.34 with a save percentage of .955 with one shutout.

It is part of what has been generally a fine season for Rask:

• Games: 67 (T-3rd)
• Wins: 34 (T-8th)
• GAA: 2.27 (10th)
• SV: .924 (8th)
• Shutouts: 3 (T-18th)
• Minutes: 3,881 (3rd)

Rask’s problem, to the extent he has had one, is streakiness in general.  He has four streaks of four or more wins this season and four of three or more losses.  Against the Caps, Rask is 1-5-3, 3.00, .893, with one shutout in nine career appearances.

Rask has had to be sharp, because the Bruins have had trouble finding the back of the net.  The Bruins are on their current five-game winning streak despite scoring only 13 goals, almost a third of them in a 4-2 win over the Rangers to start the streak.  Milan Lucic has three of those goals, a welcome sight for the Bruins after going 11 games with just one goal to his credit.  It has not been the best of seasons for Lucic, production-wise.  With 18 goals for the season and three games left to play, he could miss the 20-goal mark for the first time in a full NHL season since he had nine in a 2009-2010 season limited to 50 games due to finger and ankle injuries.  In 26 career games against Washington, Lucic is 5-13-18, minus-1.

Carl Soderberg is the points leader for Boston in their five-game streak (2-4-6).  He had a four-game points streak of his own snapped against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Bruins’ last contest.  He has shown an ability to score in bunches lately; he has three multi-point games in his last nine contests.  He has nine multi-point games on the season, third on the club, behind Lucic (10) and Dougie Hamilton (11).

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Defenseman Zdeno Chara, who took a shot off his ankle in the Bruins’ 2-1 Gimmick win over Toronto on Saturday, skated in practice on Tuesday after missing a practice day on Monday.   Even if he dresses for the final three games of the season, he will have appeared in the fewest number of games (63) in a full season since he dressed for 65 games as a member of the New York Islanders back in 1999-2000.

2.  Boston spreads the points around.  The Bruins have only one 50-point player (Patrice Bergeron: 54), but they have seven skaters with at least 40 points for the season (Bergeron, Loui Eriksson, Milan Lucic, Carl Soderberg, Dougie Hamilton, Brad Marchand, and Reilly Smith).  Torey Krug could make it with a big week; he has 37 points.

3.  The Bruins’ power play is an odd one.  It ranks in the middle of the pack (19th/17.9 percent), but it does have five players with at least ten power play points: Dougie Hamilton (15), Patrice Bergeron (13), Torey Krug (13), Reilly Smith (11), and Loui Eriksson (10).  Carl Soderberg and Milan Lucic are pushing to cross that threshold with eight power play points apiece.  Only Eriksson has more than five power play goals (6).

4.  The Bruins are a team that can be had in the third period, provided you can score, because they cannot seem to.  Their 54 third period goals ranks tied for 29th in the league, with Buffalo, ahead of only the Arizona Coyotes (48).

5. Boston’s possession numbers are of the middle-of-the-pack sort on the road.  Their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 is 49.0 (17^th), while their Fenwick-for is 48.0 (20^th).  They are little different in close score situations, a 48.0 Corsi-for percentage (18^th) and a 46.6 Fenwick-for percentage (22^nd, numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Much is made about the fact that Tom Wilson has 172 penalty minutes (third in the league) and 12 fights (sixth) this season.  But orneriness is not confined to Wilson.  Michael Latta has eight fights in only 51 games played.  That’s an 11-fight pace over the 67 games Wilson has played.  And these guys are roomies?

2.  Brooks Orpik is the big bopper on the club, leading the team in hits (300, third in the league).  Know who is second among defensemen?  Matt Niskanen (139).

3.  John Carlson ranks sixth among defensemen in points this season, but he also ranks third in blocked shots (194).  Only Nashville’s Roman Josi ranks that high or higher in those two categories among defensemen (fourth in points: 55; second in blocked shots: 209).

4.  Braden Holtby already has the most minutes played in a single season of any goaltender not named “Olaf Kolzig” in Capitals history.  He is only three minutes away from securing the third heaviest minute volume in Caps history, currently held by Kolzig (4,131).  No, he does not have a shot at either of the top two spots, both held by Kolzig (4,371 in 1999-2000; 4,279 in 2000-2001).

5. Washington’s home possession numbers have been a bit misbehaved over the last month.  At 5-on-5 overall they Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages are 53.3/53.3, respectively.  Those look rather good.  In close score situations, though, they look less attractive: 48.9 and 49.7, respectively (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: David Krejci

The 2014-2015 season has not been memorable for Boston’s David Krejci, unless you count entries on medical charts being memorable.  Krejci has missed 35 games to a pair of significant injuries this season, a hip injury that cost him 20 games early in the season and a knee injury that put him on the shelf for 15 more in February and March.  He returned to the Bruins’ lineup on March 26th and has yet to find his rhythm.  In six games since coming back he is 0-3-3 while skating more than 19 minutes a game.  In the 44 games in which he has played he is just 7-22-29, plus-7, a level of production less than half of what it was in 80 games last season (19-50-69, plus-39).  For Boston to entertain any serious thoughts of a making the playoffs, let alone making a deep run, it would be best for Krejci to find his game.  He is 5-13-18, minus-1, in 26 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Stanislav Galiev

The Washington Capitals selected Stanislav Galiev with the 86th overall pick in the 2010 entry draft.  On Wednesday night, it is very likely that he gets his first taste of NHL action.  He would be the third Capital from that draft – goalie Philipp Grubauer and forward Evgeny Kuznetsov being the others – to make the leap to the NHL.

In 151 regular season games over three seasons in Canadian juniors with the Saint John Ice Dogs of the QMJHL, Galiev was 65-79-144, plus-81.  He added another 36 goals and 85 points, with a plus-41, in 65 playoff games for the Ice Dogs.  With the Reading Royals in the ECHL he was 28-32-60 in 60 regular season games over two seasons; 5-8-13 in 13 playoff games for the Royals.  With the Hershey Bears in the AHL, Galiev was 28-24-52, even, in 97 games over three seasons, including 25-20-45, plus-5, in 64 games with the Bears this season.  He had been struggling of late with the Bears, though, going 2-1-3, even, in his last 12 games.

In the end…

There really is not much that one should find intimidating about the Bruins at the moment, at least in terms of their offense.  They have not scored more than three goals in a win since March 8th (a 5-3 win over Detroit), and over their last nine road games have a total of 21 goals (2.33/game).  Having a goalie playing well at this time of year is what any team would hope for, but there is relying too much on that attribute as well. 

This does not look like Bruin team built to last for a long playoff run, if they get there at all.  On the other side, the Caps are averaging 3.00 goals per game over their last 17 games, with a goal differential of almost two-thirds of a goal per game, and are playing to an 11-6-0 record in those games (three of the six losses were by one-goal).  All things considered, the Caps seem better positioned to do some harm in the post season.

Capitals 4 – Bruins 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 80: Capitals at Red Wings, April 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up the road portion of their 2014-2015 season on Sunday afternoon in Detroit against the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena.  The Caps will be coming back on less than a full-day’s rest after their 4-3 overtime loss to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night.  The Red Wings will be doing the same after they bested the Minnesota Wild, 3-2, in a Gimmick.

The Red Wings come into this game in the midst of a long slow bleed of air out of their balloon.  Since March 6^th, Detroit is 5-9-2, and frankly, there is not much secret where the problem lies.  Detroit is surrendering far too many goals, 52 of them over those 16 games.  At the wrong time of year, goaltending has become an issue.  In the 5-9-2 run, three Detroit goaltenders – Jimmy Howard, Petr Mrazek, and Jonas Gustavsson – have combined for a goals against average of 3.07, a save percentage of .895, and each of them was relieved once from a game. 

It has made for an unsettled situation in which is not clear if Jimmy Howard is going to be “the man” between the pipes heading into the post season.  Howard has had an odd season when compared to last.  He has appeared in 51 games this season, the same number in which he appeared in 2013-2014.  His record looks very similar to last year’s:

• 2013-2014: 21-19-11, 2.42, .910 (ES save percentage: .920), 2 shutouts
• 2014-2015: 22-13-10, 2.66, .911  (ES save percentage: .919, 2 shutouts

Last season, Howard closed with a rush, winning four of his last five appearances and stopping 121 of 131 shots.  This season he is stumbling to the finish.  He is 3-1-2, 3.37, .876 in seven career appearances against Washington.

The offense has been a bit off, a shortcoming magnified by the goals allowed.  In the 5-9-2 run Detroit has 43 goals (2.69/game).  What they are lacking is contributions from those expected to make them.  Their leading goal scorer this season – Tomas Tatar (28) – has four goals in his last 22 games.  The leading point-getter – Henrik Zetterberg (62) – is 1-5-6 over his last ten games.

Then there is Pavel Datsyuk.  His problem is not production as much as it is health.  He played in only nine of the 16 games in the 5-9-2 run.  We was 3-6-9 in those games, a point-per-game pace consistent with his production for the season (60 points in 60 games).

If there has been something close to a constant for the Red Wings on offense it has been Gustav Nyquist.  After last year’s coming out party for the former fourth-round draft pick (28 goals in 57 games), Nyquist has 26 goals this season, second on the club.  He has five of those goals in the recent Red Wing 16-game slide, about his season average per game (0.33), and has assisted on four others.  There has, however, been an odd change in his goal scoring profile from last year to this.  Last season his 28 goals included 22 at even strength and six on the power play.  This year, Nyquist’s power play production has more than doubled, to 14 goals, but his even strength output has been cut nearly in half, to 12 goals.  He is 5-3-8, plus-2, in five career games against the Capitals.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  No team has scored more power play goals on home ice than the Red Wings (39), in no small part a product of the fact that only Dallas has more power play opportunities on home ice (158) than Detroit (148).

2.  Special teams get a workout on the Joe Louis Arena ice sheet.  The Red Wings have the third-highest number of shorthanded situations faced on home ice (138), trailing only Pittsburgh (139) and Winnipeg (151).

3.  Scoring first is almost always a good thing, but Detroit has an odd record in this regard.  The Red Wings rank 24^th in winning percentage when scoring first (.5909/23-8-8), but they rank third in winning percentage when allowing the first goal (.462/18-16-5).

4.  Sixteen different Red Wings have at least one power play goal this season (by way of comparison, the Caps have 12 players with at least one power play goal).

5.  Even though the Red Wings have been struggling over the last month in wins and losses, they remain a possession monster.  At 5-on-5 overall, their Corsi-for percentage over their 5-9-2 run is 54.1; their Fenwick-for percentage is 53.2 percent.  Their corresponding close score percentages are 53.6/53.3 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Washington’s overtime loss was their first in the five-minute extra session in more than two months.  The last time they dropped a game in the overtime was on January 31^st, a 1-0 overtime loss to Montreal.’

2.  The two 5-on-3 power play goals allowed by the Caps against Ottawa were twice as many as they had allowed all season.

3.  Perhaps the loss to Ottawa was preordained.  The Caps have lost five games in the extra period when trailing at the first intermission five times this season.  Only four teams have more, each with six such losses.

4.  The Caps losing in overtime to Ottawa dropped their record to 4-13-5 when trailing after the first period, the ninth-worst winning percentage in the league (.182).

5.  Washington has struggled some in possession on the road recently.  In their last 13 road games the Caps have been over 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, close score situations, only four times and over 50 percent in Fenwick-for percentage five times.  Overall, their numbers in those 13 games are 49.0/48.3, respectively (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Justin Abdelkader

Of the 43 goals scored by the Red Wings in their recent 5-9-2 slide, Justin Abdelkader has nine of them and has assisted on three others, factoring into almost 28 percent of the goals scored by Detroit in those 16 games.  He has two streaks of at least three games with a goal embedded in that run as well.  It is part of a season in which Abdelkader has shattered his previous career high in goals – he has 23; he had tenin each of his previous two seasons.  He also has a career high in points (44), far eclipsing the 28 points he recorded last season.  He has a knack for scoring in close score situations, 18 of his 23 goals coming when the Wings are trailing by a goal, tied, or leading by a goal.  And, five of those goals are game-winners.  Abdelkader is 3-2-5, minus-3, in 11 career games against Washington.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Quietly – who would have expected otherwise – Nicklas Backstrom is looking as if he might be at the start of piecing together a nice little scoring run.  Sure, it seems sometimes as if he might not ever score a goal of his own again – he has not had one in his last 20 games and missed on a couple of excellent chances against Ottawa on Saturday – but he has assists in three of his last four games and has regained the league lead in assists (57) from Philadelphia’s Jakub Voracek (56).  Even with the goal drought, Backstrom is sixth overall in scoring (75 points).  If there is something there that suggests a breakout might be coming it is that he has been such a consistent point-per-game player over his career.  He has 569 points in 574 career games, five points short of that point-per-game mark.  Perhaps not coincidentally, he has his 75 points this season in 79 games, four points short of the mark.  Backstrom is 2-8-10, minus-2, in ten career games against Detroit.

In the end…

Washington faces another desperate team on Sunday, this one trying to hold a three-point lead in the wild card race, not make up the three point deficit that Ottawa had on Saturday.  It is odd to be using the term “desperate” in reference to the Red Wings, but they are in jeopardy of missing the post season for the first time in 24 seasons and the third time since Ronald Reagan’s first term as President.  Nine players having dressed for the Wings this season were not yet born the last time Detroit missed the post season. 

On the other side, the Caps are on the cusp of returning to the post season after a one-year absence.  That last few strides to the finish line could prove to be the most difficult.  Washington closes the season with these Red Wings, then wrap up the regular season at home against Boston (a team in Detroit’s position trying to hang on to a wild card spot) and the Rangers, who might want to send a message in the season finale and atone for the 5-2 pasting the Caps put on them in their last meeting.

Nothing has yet been earned, and for all intents and purposes the Capitals are already playing teams in playoff mode.  They need to match the effort.

Capitals 4 – Red Wings 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 79: Capitals at Senators, April 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Seventy-eight down, four to go.  And this, the 79^th game of the season, might be the most meaningful of them all for the Washington Capitals to date.  The Caps take the ice for the middle game of their last road trip of the regular season in Ottawa, where they will face the Senators at Canadian Tire Center.  If the Capitals win in regulation, they secure a playoff spot (they will have an eight-point lead over the ninth-place Senators, with Ottawa having four games left to play, but they cannot catch the Caps in regulation/overtime wins, the first tie-breaker).

Conversely, a loss by the Senators, especially in overtime, would put their post season chances on life support.  They would trail the Boston Bruins by three points in the event of a loss in regulation with four games to play.  They could catch the Bruins in regulation/overtime wins, and then the arcane rules governing head-to-head points and games played in which city take over.  If it comes to this tie-breaker, Ottawa would have the edge, but we would be talking long shots for the Senators.

Ottawa is not being done any favors catching the Caps at this point in the schedule.  Washington is 7-2-0 in their last nine games and is on a three-game winning streak.  In that nine-game run the Caps have outscored their opponents, 23-18, and their special teams have been quite efficient.  The power play is 7-for-22 (31.8 percent), while the penalty kill is 25-for-28 (89.3 percent).  Washington is also 5-1-0 in their last six road games.

Meanwhile, the Senators have hit a rough patch of road after putting together a seven-game winning streak (and a more extended 15-1-1 run from February 18^th through March 23^rd).  The Senators lost three in a row after that streak before rebounding with a pair of wins against division rivals Detroit and Tampa Bay earlier this week.  The difference between the three losses and the two wins was scoring defense.  Ottawa allowed 13 goals in losing to the Rangers (5-1), Toronto (4-3 in overtime), and Florida (4-2), while holding Detroit and Tampa Bay to single goals in a pair of 2-1 overtime wins.

And that bring us to goaltender Andrew Hammond.  “The Hamburglar” has come out of nowhere to capture the hearts and minds of Ottawa fans.  An undrafted free agent signed to a two-year deal by the Senators in 2013 after he finished a four-year career at Bowling Green State University, he won 25 games for the Senators’ AHL affiliate in Binghamton in 2013-2014.  He did get one game with the big club in that season, and it might have offered just a hint of things to come.  After the Detroit Red Wings lit up Robin Lehner for six goals on 15 shots on February 27, 2014, Hammond made his NHL debut and stopped all 11 shots he faced in a 6-1 Senators loss. 

Hammond started the 2014-2015 season in Binghamton and, frankly, was not particularly impressive.  In 25 games he was 7-13-2, 3.51, .898, with two shutouts.  Nevertheless, when starter Craig Anderson went out with a hand injury in late January, Hammond was recalled.  He did not make his season debut until February 16^th, again taking mop-up duty in place of Lehner after the latter allowed four goals on 31 shots in 40 minutes of a 6-3 loss to Carolina.  It was not an auspicious debut for Hammond, who allowed two goals on five shots.

Since then, however, Hammond has been nothing short of amazing.  In 18 appearances since that stint against Carolina, he is 16-1-1, 1.72, .943, with two shutouts.  Only three times in those 18 appearances has he allowed more than two goals, although all of them have come in his last six games.  Still, Hammond allowed two or fewer goals in his first 12 games, tying an NHL record set by Boston’s Frank Brimsek in the 1938-1939 season.  Hammond went on to earn points in 15 straight games, falling one game shot of the record to start a career set by Patrick Lalime in 1996-1997.  If he gets the start, Hammond will be making his first appearance against Washington.

On offense, no one has made the sort of splash Hammond has in goal, relying more on balance to ice the league’s 12^th ranked team in scoring offense.  Only two Senators have more than 20 goals this season – Mike Hoffman (26) and Kyle Turris (22).  Hoffman had a big start to the season recording his 20^th goal in his 52^nd game, putting him on a 32-goal pace.  In his last 22 games, though, the pace has fallen off.  In those last 22 games Hoffman has six goals, only three in his last 17 contests, about half the goal-scoring pace he had over those first 52 games.  He has two career appearances against Washington, both of them this year.  He has one assist.

Turris is in his fourth season with the Senators and has demonstrated himself to be a reliable 20-goal scorer.  In 49 games with Ottawa in 2011-2012, after coming in trade from Phoenix, he had 12 goals in 49 games (a 20.1 goal pace).  He followed that up with 12 goals in 48 games in 2012-2013 (20.5), 26 goals in 82 games last season, and 22 goals in 77 games this season.  His goal scoring has been a bit bumpy lately, though.  After going 11 games with only two goals, he recorded two in consecutive games against Boston and Toronto, including the game-winner in a 5-3 win over the Maple Leafs.  In his last six games, he has just one goal to his credit.  In ten career games against the Caps, he is 5-2-7, plus-9.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  Ottawa’s offense is like the old style diesel engine.  It takes a while to warm up.  Only six teams have scored fewer goals in the first period than the Senators (53), but Ottawa ranks tenth overall in second period goals scored (75) and fifth in third period goals scored (83).

2.  The Senators are the only team in the NHL not to have been shut out this season.  Last year they were shut out only twice (only three teams were shut out fewer times).  You might beat the Senators, but they will turn on the lamp.

3.  Ottawa is fifth in the league in fighting majors (32).  None of them have been against the Caps this season.

4.  If the Senators do not make it to the post season, they might point to their ability to take and hold leads as a culprit.  Only 21 times in 77 games have they scored first, and they have only 14 wins in those games.  Only four teams have fewer wins when taking a lead, and Ottawa has the seventh worst winning percentage in those games.

5.  Ottawa is a bottom-half ranking team, possession-wise.  The Senators rank 18^th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (50.3), 21^st in close score situations (49.4).  Their corresponding rankings in Fenwick-for percentage are 22^nd (48.5) and 22^nd (47.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Gimmick has been an interesting experience for the Caps in one respect.  Washington has participated in only nine trick shot competitions, only six teams have been in fewer.  However, only four teams have scored more goals in the freestyle phase than the 16 scored by the Caps.

2.  One-goal games have become commonplace in the Caps’ experience.  In 78 games they have 44 such decisions.  Only Florida (47) and Nashville (45) have more.  Unfortunately, the Caps rank only 17^th in winning percentage in such games.

3.  When Washington beat Montreal on Thursday, it was only the second time this season that the Caps won a game when trailing at the second intermission.  As it is, there are still only two teams with fewer wins when trailing after 40 minutes (Winnipeg has one win, Pittsburgh has none).

4.  When the Caps blocked 30 shots in Montreal on Thursday they jumped into sixth place in blocked shots in road games, just two behind Columbus for fifth place.  That might sound nice, but it might not be the place to be.  The teams ahead of the Caps include, in addition to the Blue Jackets, Winnipeg, Buffalo, Los Angeles, and the Islanders.  Three of those teams will not make the playoffs, and another will just make it.  Only the Islanders can be seen among them as a strong team.

5.  The Caps used to be a free-wheeling offensive team.  Not so much these days.  Washington ranks 21st overall in total shot attempts, for and against, at five-on-five per game (86.3).  That is largely a product of limiting opponents’ attempts.  The Caps have allowed the 10^th fewest opponent shot attempts per game at 5-on-5 (42.1; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Mark Stone

The particulars of Mark Stone’s resume do not leap off the page – a sixth-round draft pick (178^th overall) in 2010, a pair of seasons in the AHL scoring 15 goals in each, 23 games spread over two seasons with the Senators scoring a total of four goals.  This season, however, Stone had taken a leap forward.  He has 20 goals in 75 games, tied with Erik Karlsson for third on the club.  Ten of them have come on the power play.  Five of his goals are game-winners.  While not a top-end goal scorer, Stone has provided consistent secondary scoring.  His goals are spread reasonably evenly by month, a low of two in October, a high of four in January and March.  He has an assist in two career games against Washington.

Washington: Tom Wilson

Only four players among the 211 members of the 2012 draft class have played in more games than the Capitals’ Tom Wilson (147).  Thirteen of those players (including six defensemen) have recorded more goals than the seven Wilson has on his resume to date.  On the other hand, his 316 penalty minutes is almost four times the number recorded by his closest pursuer in that statistic (Jacob Trouba: 85).  It might have been reasonable to expect that the physical aspect of the game would express itself in Wilson’s game sooner than would his offensive game.  And shuttling between the top line and the fourth line has not been conducive to developing that offensive game, either.  Nevertheless, the Capitals are counting on Wilson becoming a contributor, and with the playoffs about to begin, seeing that progress would be welcome.  In five career games against Ottawa, Wilson is 0-1-1, even.

In the end…

This game presents an opportunity for the Caps to deliver a mortal would to the Senators’ playoff hopes while clinching a spot for themselves.  It is the sort of game that will provide a look at the sort of team the Caps have, attitude-wise, heading to the post season.  Will they skate into the Senators’ barn, take their lunch, and eat it in front of them?  Or, will they come up short against a desperate team with what has been a hot goalie the past two months?  This could be among the most entertaining games of the year for Caps fans seeing just what sort of team we have here.

Capitals 3 – Senators 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 78: Capitals at Canadiens, April 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head into the last ten days of the regular season with the first game of a three-game road trip on Thursday night.  The Montreal Canadiens, currently sitting on top of the Atlantic Division and one point behind the New York Rangers for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, will host the Caps at Bell Centre.

The Capitals were 4-1-0 on the road in March, beating playoff-eligible teams along the way (Minnesota Wild and the New York Rangers) while losing to one (Winnipeg Jets).  The Caps are one of five teams in the East with 20 or more road wins this season, the first time that the Caps have posted a 20-win season on the road since recording 23 road wins in 2010-2011.

On the other side, the Canadiens were 3-2-1 at home in March, which was something of a fall off, given that they are still second in the East in standings points earned at home this season (55 points/25-9-5).  Their 25 wins at home ranks second in the East (Tampa Bay: 30), and their nine losses in regulation time at Bell Centre is tied for the third-fewest such losses at home in the East this season (with Philadelphia).

The big scorers at home for the Canadiens at home in March include a couple of the usual suspects.  Max Pacioretty had five goals at Bell Centre for the month (5-2-7), which should not be especially surprising.  His 21 goals at Bell Centre this season is tied for second in the league in home goal scoring (with Steven Stamkos, behind Alex Ovechkin with 24).  And what is it with Canadians and hamburgers these days, anyway? 

Pacioretty is 2-6-8, even, in 19 career games against Washington.

Tomas Plekanec also finds himself among the top scorers for the Canadiens at Bell Centre in March, going 1-5-6.  He has been a model of consistency overall for the past two months.  In 30 games since January 31st, Plekanec has not gone more than two games without a point overall (9-13-22).  One thing for Caps fans to note is that 13 of his 22 goals overall this season have come in the third periods of games, including a game-tying goal with 9:29 in regulation of what would be a 2-1 trick shot win on Opening Night in Washington against the Caps.  Plekanec is 14-14-28, plus-5, in 36 career games against the Capitals.

Carey Price has largely put to rest any thoughts that any other goalie will win the Vezina Trophy this season.  At the moment, Price is a league leader in:

• Wins : 41 (1st)
• Goals Against Average: 1.92 (1st)
• Save Percentage: .936 (1st)
• Shutouts: 9 (T-1st)
• Minutes: 3,725 (5th)
• Save Percentage (even strength): .942 (1st; minimum: 20 appearances)
• Save Percentage/Shootouts: .813 (5th; minimum: 15 shots faced)

There do appear to be, however, the smallest cracks that seem to be showing up in his game.  In December, Price was 7-4-0, 1.93, .937.  In January those numbers were 7-1-1, 1.53, .951, and he added two shutouts.  In February it was more of the same: 9-1-1, 1.34, .949, and two more shutouts.

In March, however, those small cracks might have opened.  Price was 5-5-2, 2.08, .935, with three shutouts, and in his last eight appearances he is 4-3-1, 2.24, .929, with two shutouts, having allowed three or more goals four times in those eight games.  It is not that he has suddenly lost the ability to stop pucks, but he has been somewhat more mortal in his performances over the last three weeks.  Price is 5-9-3, 3.04, .902, with one shutout in 17 career appearances against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Of the 16 teams currently eligible for the playoffs, Montreal has the worst scoring offense (2.56 goals per game). However, they rank eighth of those 16 teams in goal differential per game (0.34).  Thank you, Carey Price.

2.  Montreal has allowed the fewest 5-on-5 goals in the league this season (117).

3.  The Canadiens do not seem to play games close.  Only four teams have played fewer one-goal games than the 32 played by Montreal (San Jose and New Jersey have 31; Toronto has 29, and Vancouver has 28).

4.  Scoring first could loom large in this game.  Montreal has the second best winning percentage in the league when scoring the game’s first goal (.838/31-3-3), trailing only the Capitals (.854/35-2-4).

5.  Looking at possession numbers, the Canadiens do not have quite the profile of a playoff team.  They rank 23^rd in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.3) and 21^st in close-score situations.  Their Fenwick-for numbers are hardly better – 22^nd overall (48.6) and 18^th in close score situations (50.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Only four teams have more wins this season than the Caps (24) when leading after one period (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers have 25; Minnesota has 27), and the Caps are fourth in winning percentage in such games (.857/24-2-2).

2.  If Braden Holtby was to run the table in his last five games he would be in some rarified air.  Since the NHL went to an 82-game schedule in 1995-1996, only five goalies have won 43 or more games, accomplished a total of 11 times (Martin Brodeur: 6; Evgeny Nabokov: 2; Kiikka Kiprusoff: 1; Roberto Luongo: 1; Pekka Rinne: 1).  As it is, he is one of 24 goalies to have won 38 or more games since the league went to the 82-game schedule (accomplished a total of 51 times).

3.  In the ten seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout, 15 players in the NHL have recorded 400 or more assists.  Of that group, only two players have not played in all ten seasons – Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins (434 assists in nine seasons) and Nicklas Backstrom (422 assists in eight seasons).  Of that group of 15, Backstrom and Malkin are tied for fourth in assists per game, trailing only Sidney Crosby, Joe Thornton, and Henrik Sedin.

4.  Last season the Capitals had three defensemen with 15 or more points: Mike Green (38), John Carlson (37) and Karl Alzner (18).  This season they have five: Carlson (48), Green (42), Matt Niskanen (29), Alzner (21), and Brooks Orpik (15).  Health might be a factor; the Caps have four defensemen having appeared in more than 70 games thus far (Carlson, Niskanen, Alzner, and Orpik), and Green will hit that mark if he appears in three more games.  Last season the Caps had three defensemen reach 70 games: Carlson (82), Alzner (82) and Green (70).

5.  Washington has been hit with the fifth highest total of minor penalties this season (301).  Last season the had the ninth-highest total (314).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Andrei Markov

In the storied history of the Montreal Canadiens, only five defensemen have recorded 400 or more points in their career in Montreal.  Larry Robinson (883), Guy Lapointe (572), Doug Harvey (447), and Serge Savard (412) all won Stanley Cups, all went to the Hall of Fame.  The fifth defenseman in this group is Andrei Markov, who ranks third on that list with 487 points.  Markov is one of only six defensemen to have dressed for 800 or more games for the bleu, blanc, et rouge (Robinson, Savard, Harvey, Patrice Brisebois, and Tom Johnson being the others).

P.K. Subban gets most of the attention on the Montreal blue line, both from the media and from opponents, but Markov has been a formidable force for the Canadiens for 14 seasons (and counting).  He also happens to be Montreal’s nominee for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy, given to the National Hockey League player who “best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey.”  Markov comes into this game with points in three straight games overall (1-2-3, even) and had three assists in six home games in March.  Markov is 1-19-20, plus-14 in 40 career games against Washington.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin has 33 goals in 40 games since the calendar turned over to 2015.  If he had not scored a goal in the 2014 portion of the season, he would still rank ninth overall in goals and would be a hat trick out of fifth.  That goal-scoring pace (a 68-goal pace over 82 games since January 1st), plus the fact that he is tied for second in points and has improved his plus-minus by 46 points over last year’s disastrous minus-35, has allowed Ovechkin to elbow his way into the conversation for the Hart Trophy.

And, further buttressing his case, he has not padded his stats against Punch and Judy teams.  In 35 games this season against teams currently playoff-eligible, Ovechkin is 26-12-38, plus-3, a 61-28-89, plus-7 rate per 82 games.  He has goals against 11 of those 15 palyoff-eligible teams; Montreal and Detroit are the only playoff-eligible teams in the East against which he does not have a goal this season.  Ovechkin is 20-16-36, plus-5, in 35 career games against the Canadiens.

In the end…

At the moment, this is a game that previews the Round 1 matchup in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.  With the Canadiens, Lightning, and Rangers fighting for seeding at the top of the Conference, and the Caps battling Pittsburgh, the Islanders, and Detroit for seeding in the next tier of contenders, the matchup situation is fluid.  Nevertheless, this is another of those benchmark games that have been sprinkled through the Caps’ schedule the last month or so.  Since the All-Star break, the Caps are 4-1-1 on the road against playoff-eligible teams overall, 2-0-1 against Eastern Conference playoff eligibles. The road has not been an intimidating place for the Capitals.

Capitals 3 – Canadiens 2

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 77: Hurricanes at Capitals, March 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off their gobsmacking of the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon, the Washington Capitals return home to Verizon Center to host the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night.  The Caps will be looking to free themselves of the alternative wins and losses over their last five games (3-2-0) at the Hurricane’s expense, while Carolina will be looking to extend their points streak to four games (2-0-1 in their last three contests).

The three-game points streak for Carolina is a case of too little, too late. March has been a relentless journey of misfortune for the Hurricanes, who have a 4-6-4 record as they prepare for their last game of the month.  In those 14 games to date this month Carolina has been outscored by a 40-32 margin.  Their power play has the look of effectiveness – 8-for-39 (20.5 percent) – but five of those eight goals came in consecutive games against Edmonton and Columbus, teams that rank 28^th and 24^th in penalty killing effectiveness, respectively.  The penalty kill has had two entirely different blocks of performance in March, going 22-for-31 overall (17.0 percent), but that being broken up into a 13-for-21 block over the first eight games of the month (61.9 percent) and a 9-for-10 block over their last six games (90.0 percent).

Carolina just has not had the kind of top-end scoring they needed to compete for a playoff spot this season.  They are one of just five teams without a 50-point scorer (Arizona, Buffalo, Florida, and New Jersey are the other, all on the outside looking in on the playoffs).  The Hurricanes could have two players finish above the 50-point mark, and both could do it with big nights against the Caps.

Eric Staal sits at 49 points for Carolina through 70 games played.  Having reached his 30^th birthday last October, it is time to wonder if his best days are in his rear-view mirror or if a change in scenery would rejuvenate him after what will be his sixth straight season as captain missing the playoffs.  Staal is as close as there is to an iconic player in Hurricane franchise history (those arguing for Ron Francis have a point, although he spent ten seasons in Hartford and played for Pittsburgh and Toronto in addition to the Hartford/Carolina franchise).  He is third in franchise history in games played (839), second in goals scored (310), second in points, first in hat tricks (13), first in multi-point games (179), ninth in playoff games played, first in playoff goals scored (19), first in playoff points (43), and has a Stanley Cup on his resume.

Streakiness has been a hallmark of Staal’s game this season.  He opened the season with a four-game points streak, one of six streaks of three or more games with a point this season.  He also has five streaks of three or more games without a point.  He has been hot lately with six points in his last four games (2-4-6), but a three-game points streak was snapped when he was blanked in a 2-1 overtime loss to Boston on Sunday.  Staal is 25-42-67, plus-3, in 67 career games against the Capitals.

The other Hurricane with a chance to top 50 points is defenseman Justin Faulk who, while not yet having hit that 50-point plateau, is tied for ninth overall with Calgary’s Dennis Wideman and the Rangers’ Keith Yandle in points by defensemen (47 points).  Since the 2005-2006 lockout, Faulk is one of only ten defensemen 23 or younger in his fourth season who scored 115 or more career points.  The other nine look like a Who’s Who of defensemen: Dion Phaneuf, Drew Doughty, Mike Green, Erik Karlsson, and Shea Weber among them.  This year he is tied with Green for fourth-most multi-point games by defensemen (12).  In 17 career games against Washington, Faulk is 2-6-8, plus-2, both of his goals being game-winners.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Carolina struggles to score at 5-on-5.  Only three teams – New Jersey (112), Arizona (102), and Buffalo (101) – have fewer goals scored at 5-on-5 than the Hurricanes (117).

2.  Carolina does not do much when shorthanded, either.  Only Florida (yet to score a shorthanded goal this season) has fewer shorthanded goals than the Hurricanes (2).

3.  The Hurricanes are dead last in the league in winning percentage in one-goal games (.324/12-14-11).  They and the Maple Leafs are the only teams to have lost more one-goal games in regulation than they have total one-goal wins.

4.  Shots are of a particular concern to Carolina.  No team has a worse winning percentage when being out-shot than the Hurricanes (.213/6-14-6).

5.  Carolina is not an altogether awful team in terms of possession.  They do rank eighth overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (52.3), and they rank 11^th in that statistic in close score situations (51.7).  Their Fenwick numbers at 5-on-5 are just about as good, ranking 11^th overall (52.0) and 13^th in close score situations (51.6; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Their problem, as you might deduce, is that PDO number.  The Hurricanes are 28th the league in PDO at 5-on-5 overall (97.5), last in PDO in close score situations (97.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Including the game in which he was injured against the New York Rangers on March 11^th, the Capitals are 5-4-0 in Jay Beagle’s absence.  Just pointing that out.

2.  The Caps have 17 players with ten or more points this season, one more than reached that mark last season.  Unless Curtis Glencross (six points) or Michael Latta (five points) has an unusual spurt over the last six games, it is unlikely they will get to 18 players hitting that ten point mark.

3.  As one might expect, Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals within his division (20) than any other player in the NHL this season within theirs.  What one might not know is that the Caps’ second-ranking intra-divisional goal scorer is Eric Fehr (11).

4.  Mike Green sure likes home cooking in one respect.  At Verizon Center, Green is plus-12.  On the road, he is merely “even.”

5.  The Caps have the league’s 12^th best record at 41-25-10.  They have the league’s 13^th best Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (51.4) and 12^th best Corsi-for in close score situations (51.6).  Imagine that (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Cam Ward/Anton Khudobin

The Hurricanes are not getting enough out of the goaltender position.  Consider that there are 46 goalies having appeared in at least 20 games this season.  Cam Ward ranks 31^st in even strength save percentage (.916), while Anton Khudobin ranks 44^th (.905).  They have not been subject to the big outburst.  For example, Cam Ward has allowed four or more goals ten times this season, the same number as Pekka Rinne (although Rinne has played in 14 more games).  Khudobin has done so eight times, the same number as Henrik Lundqvist (Lundqvist has played in eight more games).  However, a 2.48 goals against average and a .908 save percentage out of the goaltending position has not been quite good enough to make the Hurricanes playoff contenders this season.

Washington: Curtis Glencross

Seven games, 4-2-6, even…five games, 0-0-0, minus-2.  That is the 12-game experience of Curtis Glencross as a Washington Capital, his first seven games in the red jersey and his last five games.  Curtis Glencross recorded one shot on goal against the New York Rangers on Sunday, his first shot on goal in five games since scoring his fourth goal as a Capital on two shots in a 4-3 Gimmick win over Buffalo on March 16^th.  The Caps’ record has not been appreciably different in the five game Glencross went without a point (3-2-0) from the seven in which he scored six points (4-3-0), but if the Caps are to get secondary scoring to make their final playoff push, he is likely to be an important part of it.  In seven career games against Carolina, he is 4-1-5, plus-4.

In the end…

This is the last game of the season for the Caps against a team out of playoff contention.  In that sense it is a “must-win” game.  The Hurricanes have not been a cooperative opponent, however.  While Washington owns a 2-1-0 record against Carolina this season, one win came in overtime, and another was a one-goal win.  The loss was a 3-0 shutout.  Fail to take the Hurricanes seriously, and it could come back to bite the Caps.

Capitals 4 - Hurricanes 2