Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Lars Eller

Lars Eller

“The most successful men in the end are those whose success is the result of steady accretion.”

-- Alexander Graham Bell

After a short stint as a rookie with the St. Louis Blues in 2009-2010 (seven games), Lars Eller was traded to Montreal where he was a consistent player with the faint aura of disappointment.  In five full NHL seasons (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 schedule) he played between 77 and 79 games, scored goals totaling in the mid-teens four times, and was a high-20’s point producer.  Enough to hold a job on a regular basis, but not quite what one might expect from a 13^th-overall draft pick (2007).  Consider that the players taken immediately before and after him, defensemen Ryan McDonagh and Kevin Shattenkirk, each had more career points in the NHL through the 2015-2016 season (170 for McDonagh and 242 for Shattenkirk) than Eller (154) despite playing in fewer career games.

Then, Eller was traded to the Washington Capitals in June 2016.  He had another season with a mid-20’s point total, but upped his game to 38 points in 2017-2018 and 36 points last season, becoming an important element in the Caps’ success.  He also missed only a single game in each of his three seasons in Washington, contributing durability to a position (third line center) that had been a source of frustration in production for the Caps for the better part of a decade.

Last season, Eller set personal career highs in assists (23), even strength assists (18), shorthanded goals (two, tying his 2014-2015 total), shots on goal (163), total minutes played (1,339), average ice time (16:32), and takeaways (59).  However, that production faded in the postseason, his numbers dropping off considerably from his superb Stanley Cup season in 2018.  He had only one goal in the seven-game opening round loss to Carolina (he had seven in 24 games in 2018) and only three points (18 in 2018).  His shooting efficiency was off, posting a 9.1 shooting percentage (13.5 in 2018).  And, his production was down despite averaging more ice time (19:00 versus 17:00 in 2018).

Odd Eller Fact…

Last season, 26 centers appeared in at least 50 games, averaged less than 17 minutes per game, and posted at least 35 points.  Lars Eller was one of them.  He had the worst shooting percentage of any member of the group (8.0 percent). 

Bonus Odd Eller Fact…

The Caps were just 4-3-2 in games in which Eller recorded four or more shots on goal, 9-7-0 in games in which he did not record a shot.  There was a happy medium in there somewhere.

Fearless’ Take…

Since the 2005-2006 season, center was a position of considerable churn for the Caps.  Only five centers in those 14 seasons whose primary position was center appeared in more than 200 games.  Once you get past Nicklas Backstrom, who has been a fixture since 2007-2008, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, a full time player since 2014-2015, it has been perhaps the team’s hardest position from which to get consistent production.  Eller has provided that in his three years in Washington, and he is, in fact, third in points per game from the position among this group (0.41), which also includes Dasvid Steckel and Matt Hendricks, trailing only Backstrom (0.98) and Kuznetsov (0.81).  It is also indicative of the churn at the position that Eller, despite having played only three seasons in Washington, is in the top-20 in games played for the club among full time centers.

Cheerless’ Take…

Eller had a weird case of ineffectiveness against Metropolitan Division teams last year.  He was 8-9-17 in 23 games against the Atlantic (0.74 points per game), 2-6-8 in 14 games against the Central (0.57).  He struggled against the Pacific, with two points (both assists) in 16 games, but he was just 3-6-9 in 28 games against Metro opponents last year (0.32). He had just one point in his last six games against Metro opponents last season (a goal against Philadelphia on March 14^th).

Potential Milestones:

• 700 career NHL games (685, he needs 15)
• 300 career points (255, he needs 45)
• 100 points as a Capital (99, he needs one)
• 250 games as a Capital (243, he needs seven)

The Big Question… How will Lars Eller respond to a retooled third line?

Brett Connolly and his 52 goals over three years as a Capital -- 22 goals last season – are in Florida.  Andre Burakovsky and his 36 goals over the last three years – 12 last season – are now in Colorado.  Eller will likely be centering two new wingers – Carl Hagelin over a full season and perhaps Richard Panik, obtained this off-season.  The third line has been a bellweather of sorts for how successful the Caps have been.  When it is clicking and producing, the team is successful.  When it is not, the team struggles.  This is hardly deep analysis; production in depth is preferable and indicative of more team success than the absence of it.  Eller has been the anchor, the most stable component of that line over the last three seasons.  His ability to mesh with new linemates, quickly and effectively, could be an early indicator of how successful the Caps will be in a Metropolitan Division that is better in some places and more balanced overall.

In the end…

It was hardly a secret that for years the lack of depth down the middle was a thorn in the side of the Capitals’ ambitions.  Lars Eller has gone a long way in providing that kind of depth with consistent regular season production.  In a division as perennially difficult as the Metropolitan, and one that might be especially so this season, that kind of production is not a luxury, it is a necessity.

However, there is a darker side Eller’s production with the Caps.  In 2018 he appeared in 24 games, scored seven goals, recorded 18 points, and had three game-winning goals, including an overtime winner in Game 3 of the opening round against Columbus that might have been the most important goal of the season for the Caps.  In 2017 and 2019, though, he dressed for a total of 21 games, went 1-7-8, minus-3, and the Caps won one series.

Stars get the attention, but teams that succeed get contributions up and down the lineup.  Lars Eller has been a solution for the third line center problem in his three seasons here, but it is in his postseason performance that one can see just how thin that line can be between success and disappointment.  In 2014, Eller had five goals and 13 points as the Montreal Canadiens reached the Eastern conference final.  And, of course, there was his seven-goal, 18-point performance in 24 games for the Caps in 2018 as they won the Stanley Cup.  It is that time of year that will be of particular focus as the Caps try to return to the winner’s circle in 2020.  And Eller, a seasoned playoff performer (since his first appearance in 2011, he has more playoff games played that Kris Letang, Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Phil Kessel, and Steven Stamkos, for example), certainly seems to have acquired the experience to realize that success once more.

Projection: 81 games, 16-23-39, plus-1

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

“Life grants nothing to us mortals without hard work.”

-- Horace

As replacements go for a bottom-six forward, Nic Dowd did not do a bad job replacing the well-respected Jay Beagle as the Caps’ fourth line center last season.  He did not play as many games as did Beagle in 2017-2018 (before he departed for Vancouver as a free agent), dressing for 64 games versus 79 for Beagle the previous season.  He did outpace Beagle in goals scored (eight to seven), finished one short of Beagle’s assist total (14 to 15), equaled his point total (22), and finished with a better plus-minus (plus-10 to Beagle’s plus-3 in 2017-2018).  It would have been quite a feat to replace Beagle’s faceoff success (a 56.4 percent win percentage with the Caps in his ten years in DC, 58.5 percent in his 2017-2018 season), but Dowd was a fine 51.9 percent for the season, best among all Caps taking at least 100 draws (in fact, the only such Capital over 50 percent).

Dowd’s performance last season was the sort of workmanlike result one expects from a player in his position, but considering that he was on a deal paying $650,000 a year, it was cost-efficient, too.  That he got a raise in a three-year deal at $750,000 a year might be considered something of a bargain, especially compared to the $3.0 million Vancouver will be paying for Beagle’s services over the next three seasons.  It also doesn’t hurt that Dowd is four years younger.

Odd Dowd Fact…

Boyd played 32 games at home, 32 on the road last season.  He was plus-5 at home, plus-5 on the road.  He had seven assists at home, seven assists on the road.  He had ten penalty minutes at home, ten penalty minutes on the road.

Fearless’ Take…

The Caps did pretty well when Boyd was engaged in the “grittership” areas of the game.  In 14 games in which he recorded a hit, a blocked shot, and won at least 50 percent of his draws, the Caps were 10-3-1.  Except for a dry patch in January, a month in which he did not record a point in six games, he was a fairly reliable point-getter.  In the five months in which he dressed for at least ten games, he had at least three points in all of them with a high of eight (1-7-8) in 11 games in December.  His has not been a long career – only four seasons and 195 games – and he will be 30 years old next spring (May), but if there is something to look for with him it is that in each of his two full seasons spend with one team (Los Angeles in 2016-2017 and the Caps last season) he finished with 22 points, despite not playing more than 70 games in either of them.

Cheerless’ Take…

One thing that hurt the Caps as much as anything in the postseason over the last half dozen years was not getting production out of bottom six forwards.  They got it in good supply in their 2018 Stanley Cup run, but it dried up in the 2019 postseason.  Nic Dowd had one point in seven games against Carolina, a penalty shot goal in a 6-0 win in Game 5.  This was an especially disappointing result since he did not go more than two games without a point over his last 18 games of the regular season (3-4-7).  A fourth liner isn’t going to be bearing the scoring load, but it has been an issue with the Caps in the postseason, and it would help if Dowd could replicate some of his regular season effort in chipping in.

Potential Milestones:

• 200 career NHL games (he needs five)
• 50 career NHL points (he needs two)
• 100 career penalty minutes (he needs 25)

The Big Question… Is Nic stuck on “22?”

In three full NHL seasons, Nic Dowd has recorded 22 points twice (only four in 56 games split between Los Angeles and Vancouver in 2017-2018).  He is in what might be thought of as the chronological prime of his career at age 29.  He does not have a lot of mileage, and he plays on a team with enough high end skill and depth on offense to give him opportunities to chip in some of his own.  He was a solid all-around player within his role for the Caps last season.  With as much competition as there is likely to be among the wingers in training camp for bottom-six positions, what emerges might provide Dowd with more and more consistent fourth line support than he had at times last season.  But Dowd was also a healthy scratch 18 times last season, including a seven-times-in-12-games stretch from mid-January to mid-February.  If he can get unstuck in terms of playing time, perhaps he can get unstuck from 22 points as well.

In the end…

Players of Nic Dowd’s sort are not irreplaceable.  On the other hand, sometimes they are bargains.  His cap hit is certainly attractive to a team than needs to shed payroll to get under the salary cap by the start of the season.  His goals/points per game last season (0.13-0.22-0.34) were actually superior than those Jay Beagle had over his ten seasons here (0.11-0.14-0.25).  It might be a reach to think of Dowd as a 30-point players, but more games at last year’s level of production, and if that level of production could be enhanced with stronger linemates, and it is not out of the question.  It is the kind of balance that the Caps rode to success in 2018 and could be a formula to enjoy that kind of success once more.

Projection: 72 games, 8-16-24, plus-8

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Travis Boyd

Travis Boyd

“Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.”

-- Jean-Jacques Rousseau

For some players, the path to the NHL from draft to roster fixture is no longer than a trip to the corner store.  For others, the roads are many and uneven.  Travis Boyd was a traveler on the latter.  He was taken in the sixth round of the 2011 draft, 177^th overall, right between winger Petr Placek right in front of him (by Philadelphia) and just before goalie Adam Wilcox (by Tampa Bay).  Wilcox played one game in the NHL, with the Buffalo Sabres in 2017-2018, while Placek never played hockey after completing his tour in the Harvard University program in 2014.

Boyd, on the other hand, made slow, steady progress.  After being drafted by the Caps, he spent four years in the University of Minnesota program in the NCAA. After getting a couple of games late in the 2014-2015 season with Hershey after graduating from the Minnesota program, he played another two full seasons with the Bears before he finally got a taste of NHL action.  What a banquet it was, even if the portions were small.  He played in eight regular season games and one postseason game – the series clinching win over the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semi-final.  Last season, in just 53 games, Boyd had a quite respectable 20 points, good for 23^rd among all NHL rookies.  His 15 assists tied for 17^th in his rookie class.  He appeared in one postseason game, going without a point in ten minutes in a 2-1 loss to Carolina in Game 4 of the opening round.

It is important to remember that Boyd was a rookie in 2018-2019. Even if he was the 16^th-oldest rookie among 207 rookies to dress for at least one game last season.  Only 31 rookies in that 207-member cohort dressed for more games than the 53 in which Boyd appeared, and only 27 did so for a single team.  That is not a trivial accomplishment for a team that leans heavily on veteran production in a “win now” mode.

Odd Boyd Fact…

Travis Boyd was a bit of a good luck charm for the Caps, who were 15-2-1 in the 18 games in which he registered a point. 

Bonus Boyd Fact…

The Caps were 18-6-2 when Boyd skated more than ten minutes, 18-7-2 when he skated less than ten minutes.

Fearless’ Take…

For what it’s worth, Travis Boyd is already 15^th in career points (21) among active Minnesota Golden Gopher alumni in the NHL.  Boyd had something of an understated season last year, one in which 20 points might elicit a reaction, “he had that many?”  Since the 2005-2006 season, he is the ninth Capital to hit 20 points in his rookie season.  The others…

• Alex Ovechkin (106)
• Nicklas Backstom (69)
• Evgeny Kuznetsov (37)
• John Carlson (37)
• Jakub Vrana (27)
• Marcus Johansson (27)
• Andre Burakovsky (22)
• Brooks Laich (21)

All but Burakovsky and Vrana went on to post at least one 50-point season with the Caps (Vrana had 47 last year).  That isn’t bad company.

Cheerless’ Take…

Travis Boyd started quite well for someone who got a late start (his first game was November 5^th, Game 13 on the schedule).  He was 3-7-10, plus-5 (averaging 10:24 in ice time per game), in his first 15 games.  He faded quite a bit after that, though.  He was 1-4-5, plus-1, in his next 14 games (averaging 10:29) and was 1-4-5, even (averaging 9:05 in ice time), over his last 24 games.  He had only one goal in his last 31 games.  Only twice in his last dozen games did he get ten minutes of ice time, and one of those was the season finale, when seedings had been set and the game had no bearing on standings.  His personal possession numbers did not jump off the page – 11^th among forwards in overall shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.46 percent), nestled between Nic Dowd (48.65 percent) and Andre Burakovsky (48.33 percent), but this was generally true of the Caps’ bottom six forwards overall as well.

Potential Milestones:

• 100 NHL games (he needs 39 to reach that mark)

The Big Question… Does Travis Boyd have a spot on this roster?

Travis Boyd comes with a cheap cost -- $800,000 this season, his last under his current contract (he is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent at the end of the season).  But there seem to be a number of factors combining and conspiring to deny him a roster spot, at least a settled one.  The Caps acquired forwards Garnet Hathaway and Brendan Leipsic in the offseason.  While both are wingers (Boyd is a center), and one might be considered a replacement for Devante Smith-Pelly, there is a bit of a logjam at forward, 14 players under contract on the parent roster, including Boyd. 

Combine that with the salary cap strain under which the Caps find themselves ($1,364,000 over the cap, according to capfriendly.com), https://www.capfriendly.com/ and the competition among the bottom six to secure a roster spot will be fierce, perhaps the story of September training camp.  For his part, Boyd presents a conundrum, a player who put up decent numbers, by the standard of being a bottom-six rookie in limited play last year), but he faded at the end, too.

In the end…

Travis Boyd has been something of an under-the-radar player since he was drafted in 2011.  Such is the life of a low-round draft pick.  Then again, he has come a lot further than his sixth-round cohort from that draft.  Only five of 29 other players in that round have played in more NHL games to date.  The flip side of that coin, though, is that a player in Boyd’s position, even in his upward development arc, is going to find himself in an insecure position when it comes to a roster spot.  That he finds himself among a crowded group of bottom-six forward candidates on a team looking to improve the all-around play of the bottom-six forwards (something of a problem in the postseason especially) and win now makes that situation all the more precarious.

Patience on Boyd’s part was rewarded with a significant role on last year’s Capitals team.  Now, with the competition he faces to keep a roster spot, he will have to add perseverance to that as well.

Projection: 39 games, 4-11-15, even

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom

“Knowledge comes, but wisdom lingers.”

-- Calvin Coolidge

Last November, NHL.com asked players their views on a number of topics, among them who they believed was the most underrated player in the league.  Topping the list was Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers, who was chosen by 10 of 56 players responding.  Second was the Washington Capitals’ Nicklas Backstrom, with eight votes.  Barkov was an understandable selection – a high draft pick (second overall in 2013), but still only 22 years old with barely 300 games of NHL experience.  The range and depth of his talent, especially playing for a team that does not get a lot of attention, might be underappreciated among the broader hockey community.

Backstrom, on the other hand, was 30 years old, with 11 seasons and more than 800 games on his resume, not to mention coming off winning the Stanley Cup.  Only once in nine seasons in which he appeared in 75 or more games going into last season did he ever post fewer than 15 goals (14 in 82 games in 2007-2008, his rookie season).  Only once in that span did he record fewer than 50 assists (47 in 77 games in 2010-2011; he led the league with 60 assists in 2014-2015).  Never did he record fewer than 65 points.  Nine times he received votes for the Selke Trophy as the best defensive forward (high finish of seventh in 2016-2017).  Six times he received votes for the Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play.  He was on the 2007-2008 All-Rookie Team (and, perhaps fittingly, second in Calder Trophy voting for rookie of the year) and played in the 2016 All-Star Game.  "Underrated," given the attention he gets across the league more broadly, would seem to be a fair question.

Odd Backstrom Fact…

Of 348 players having appeared in at least 500 games since 2007-2008, Backstrom’s rookie season, only Sidney Crosby averages more assists per game (0.80) than Backstrom (0.72).

Bonus Odd Backstrom Fact… No player since Backstrom came into the league in 2007-2008 has more games with three or more assists than Backstrom (42).  Sidney Crosby has 39, and Ryan Getzlaf is far behind in third with 30.

Fearless’ Take…

That Nicklas Backstrom is among the most gifted offensive producers in the league over the last decade and change is accepted less than it is appreciated.  Since he came into the league, two active players have at least 225 goals and at least 600 assists.  Backstrom is one (231/642).  Sidney Crosby is the other (371/623).  That’s the list.  He and Crosby are tied for the most seasons over that span (since 2007-2008) with at least 20 goals and at least 50 assists (six).  He, Crosby, and Tyler Seguin are the only players in the league to have posted 70 or more points in each of the last six seasons (and, he was a point per game player in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, or that streak might be seven seasons).

Cheerless’ Take…

Backstrom had a bit of a rough time on the road last season.  For only the third time in his career, and the first time since 2013-2014, he was a “minus” player on the road (minus-6). He also had his worst performance in the faceoff circle (48.6 percent) since his rookie season (46.3 percent).  It was only the second time since he finished at 49.9 percent in 2009-2010 that he was under 50 percent (48.6 percent in 2015-2016). And, he was charged with more giveaways (62) than in any season since 2008-2009 (62, tied for most in his career for a season).  His 18 power play assists were his fewest for a season in which he played 75 or more games since 2010-2011, when he had 18 in 77 games; only in the injury shortened 2011-2012 season (16) and abbreviated 2012-2013 season (15) did he have fewer.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2019-2020:

• 900 games played (he needs five)
• Fourth place games played in franchise history (he needs 45 to tie Kelly Miller)
• Third place in games played in franchise history (he needs 66 to tie Peter Bondra)
• 700 career assists (he needs 58)
• 54^th in career assists (currently tied for 67^th, if he has those 58 assists, he would pass 12 players on thea all-time list, 13 if Ryan Getzlaf does not record 38 assists this season)
• Top-ten all time in goal scoring among players born in Sweden (currently 19^th, he needs 20 goals to tie Mats Naslund for tenth)
• Top-five all time in assists among players born in Sweden (currently sixth, he needs six to tie Daniel Sedin for fifth)
• All-time leader franchise history in playing every regular season game (currently with six, tied with Karl Alzner)
• 150 multi-assist games (currently the franchise leader with 147 career multi-assist games)
• Second place in total franchise games with at least one point (currently with 535; needs two to tie Peter Bondra for second place)

The Big Question… Is Nicklas Backstrom “underrated?”

In an NHL poll published in early August, Nicklas Backstrom ranked 18^th among NHL centers.  This poll was conducted of NHL Network producers and analysts, not players.   Seven of the 17 players ranked ahead of him are age 23 or younger.  Only three –Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, and Boston’s Patrice Bergeron – are older than Backstrom.  None of those three have ever been labeled “underrated.”

For Backstrom, that was a significant drop from his 14th place ranking in 2018  and a precipitous drop from his fifth-place ranking in 2017. 

Backstrom did much “better” in a poll of players taken by the NHL Players Association.  He finished second as most underrated player (11.4 percent) to Barkov (21.5 percent) with 405 players participating.  Underrated being a term than connotes a significant game between perceived skill/talent/contribution and actual, the players ranking Backstrom this highly says something about the respect he has among the rank and file.

However, in a way, Backstrom might be a victim of his own consistency.  In those three seasons he recorded 23, 21, and 22 goals, respectively, and his point total went from 86 to 71 to 74.  He missed only three games in that span.  And if one looks at the longer view, he has been almost a point per game player over 12 seasons (0.98), during which he varied, plus or minus 0.10 point per game from 1.00, in only four seasons.

Backstrom being underrated has become a perennial opinion, almost its own meme.  He also seems to suffer from being the primary set-up man over the years for one of the greatest goal scorers of all time.  That Alex Ovechkin has a more ebullient personality seems to contribute to this part of the issue as well.

If anything is going to reveal Backstrom’s “value,” it is the next contract he signs.  When he signed his current deal that began with the 2010-2011 season, his $6.7 million cap hit encumbered 11.3 percent of the $59.4 million cap.  Assuming the 2020-2021 cap increases by the same percentage as that between last year and this coming season (2.5 percent), the cap would be $83.6 million.  A deal that duplicated his expiring contract in terms of cap share would pay him $9.4 million per season.  At age 32 when that contract would kick in, it is hard to imagine Backstrom commanding that kind of compensation.  That would put him in the top-20 in cap hit among those players under contract for the 2019-2020 season.  However, is that number all that unbelievable when one looks at some of the names with bigger numbers following their names – Mark Stone ($9.5 million), Jamie Benn (9.5 million),Tyler Seguin ($9.8 million), Artemi Panarin ($11.6 million).  There are many factors that go into a contract negotiation, and money is not always an appropriate way to assign competitive value in sports, but one thinks (hopes) that the Caps have a clear understanding as to whether Backstrom is “underrated” or not.  It is one of the big sub-plots to the coming season.

In the end…

Nicklas Backstrom is among the most talented, accomplished, and dependable players in the history of the Capitals franchise.  His consistency is almost as much a marvel as Ovechkin’s goal scoring over more than a decade.  He shows no signes of slowing down, and in fact, his game would seem to be one that will age well, even in an era where speed matters (this might be Backstrom’s biggest shortcoming).  He sees the ice as well as anyone in the league, his ability to improvise passes on the fly is matched only by his ability to see several moves ahead to where he will make a deft pass.  His shot is, if anything, underrated (that word again) but efficient (higher than 12.5 shooting percentage in each of the last four seasons).  Here, too, he displays a remarkable consistency in unleashing that shot, averaging slightly more than two shots per game over his career (2.13) and displaying a season-to-season consistency in that regard. 

Backstrom certainly does not get the press that his level of accomplishment and the company he keeps in a variety of statistical categories over the years suggests.  What he has is the maturity – the wisdom – that enables him to continue performing at that level of play year after year.  It will come in handy this season, especially with the controversy swirling around Evgeny Kuznetsov.  One hopes that while this season is successful enough to warrant a large pay day at the end as his contract expires, the next one will keep him in Washington for years to come.

Projection: 80 games, 22-62-84, plus-8

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

A Little Piece of Capitals History to Freshen Your Day -- Seven Special Games

And, we’re back…

Let’s get back to our scribbles with a fun fact.  We noted on social media on Wednesday night that major league baseball's Washington Nationals scored double digits in runs for the fifth time in seven games and totaled 74 runs in that span.  By way of comparison, last year the Caps needed 22 games to amass 74 goals.  But then, someone asked what was the Caps' record for goals over a seven-game span.

Turns out, that record is 44 goals in seven games, set in Games 55-61 in the 1992-1993 season.  The seven-game stretch featured some odd history, not the least of which is the only instance in team history of recording ten or more goals in consecutive games and both of them on the road.  Here is how the team fared, game-by game:

And here is how the individual players performed over that span of seven games:

It is worth noting that while the Caps performed about as well on the power play over these seven games (21.4 percent) as they did over the course of the entire season (21.8 percent, fourth in the league), the penalty kill far under-performed in this seven-game stretch (74.4 percent) compared to their full season performance (82.9 percent, seventh in the league).

At an individual level, we took note of the following:

• The seven goals Dmitri Khristich posted was almost a quarter of his total for the season (31 in 64 games).
• Mike Ridley’s 13 points in seven games was almost a quarter of his total for the season (56 points in 84 games).
• Kevin Hatcher was plus-11 in these games, but he was minus-18 in the other 76 games he played during the season.
• Don Beaupre played about as well in five games minding the net in this stretch (3.20/.888) as he did over the course of the season (3.31/.882), but Jim Hrivnak struggled (3.93/.860 in two games) compared to his full season numbers (3.50/.877).

They don’t make streaks like this anymore.

Thanks to @Brian88847374 for asking the question and sparking this piece.

So...Who's Next?

Last season, the Washington Capitals won their first Stanley Cup in team history in what was their second trip to the Finals.  This season, the St. Louis Blues won their first Cup in what was their fourth trip to the Finals (congrats Blues Nation!).  It leaves ten franchises that have not yet won a Stanley Cup:

• Buffalo Sabres: (2 finals/0 cups) 
• Florida Panthers: (1/0) 
• Nashville Predators: (1/0) 
• Ottawa Senators: (1/0) 
• San Jose Sharks: (1/0) 
• Vegas Golden Knights: (1/0) 
• Arizona Coyotes: (0/0) 
• Columbus Blue Jackets: (0/0) 
• Minnesota Wild: (0/0) 
• Winnipeg Jets: (0/0)

Will any of these teams break through to make it three-for-three in first time Cup winners next season?  That is, if the Caps don't make it two in three seasons.

Memories of a Night in June

“No memory is ever alone; it's at the end of a trail of memories, 

a dozen trails that each have their own associations.”

-- Louis L'Amour

It was a trail 44 years -- 44 trails -- in the making...

"FINALLY!"

The Cap Recap of Cap Recaps

Luck is What you Make of It

44 Years, 44 Days

For Those Who Delivered on a Promise

Relive the last two minutes… the icings…Nicky winning faceoffs…Nicky missing the open net… the stuck clock… the emotions playing out on Alex’s face… Eller missing the open net with less than five seconds left… “the faceoff of the year”… “the capital of the country is the capital of the hockey playoffs!”

“The words that DC fans have been waiting to hear since 1974…”

And then, the 125^th time the Stanley Cup was presented was the best time…

Fond memory brings the light of other days around me.

-- Thomas Moore

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Goaltenders: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby

"You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself in any direction you choose. You're on your own, and you know what you know. And you are the guy who'll decide where to go.”

-- Dr. Seuss

Even the most attentive hockey fan might not recognize the names Chet Pickard, Tyler Beskorowany, Peter Delmas, Marco Cousineau, or Jacob DeSerres.  Those are the names of the goaltenders taken in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft ahead of Braden Holtby who have never dressed for an NHL game.  In fact, Holtby (taken in the fourth round, 93^rd overall) has appeared in more than half as many games (420) as the rest of the 2008 goaltender draft class (835).

While Holtby had another solid season, it was a bit out of the ordinary in one big respect.  Since he came into the league in 2010-2011 through last season, he was a goalie who thrived on heavy shot volumes.  In games in which he faced more than 35 shots he was 42-16-6, 2.46, .935.  However, in 18 such games this season, Holtby was 8-7-3, 3.28, .916.

On the other hand, there was his ability to keep losses from becoming losing streaks.  Holtby lost 19 times in regulation this season, but his record in his next appearance following a regulation loss was 12-4-2 with one no-decision.  And, he did not suffer a consecutive loss in regulation following such a loss after January 3^rd.  His record after a regulation loss after that was 8-0-1 with one no-decision, 2.55, .913.

In spite of some hiccups along the way, Holtby closed his season like a freight train.  Over his first five ten-game segments he had a record of 17-12-3, 3.11, .905, with two shutouts.  However, in his last three segments he was 15-7-2, 2.42, .920, with one shutout.

Fearless’ Take… Braden Holtby won 32 games this season.  That makes five straight seasons having won at least 30 games, tying a team record for career 30-plus win seasons (Olaf Kolzig also has five).  If you think that is not an especially noteworthy accomplishment, only four goaltenders in Caps history have recorded at least one 30-plus win season.  In addition to Holtby and Kolzig, Jose Theodore did it twice (2008-2009 and 2009-2010), and Jim Carey did it once (1995-1996).  And, after failing to record a regular season shutout in 2017-2018, he posted three shutouts this season, tying Kolzig for the career record in franchise history (35).

Cheerless’ Take…  Braden Holtby is the only goaltender in Caps history with “Stanley Cup Champion” after his name, but frankly, he has posted pretty ordinary numbers the last two seasons.  This was his second straight season with a goals against average over 2.80 after posting three straight seasons under 2.25.  It was his second season with a save percentage under .912 after three straight seasons over .920.  Over the last two seasons combined, he is 36^th of 49 goalies appearing in 50 or more games in goals against average (2.90), and he is 32^nd in that group in save percentage (.909).  He is 30^th in even strength save percentage (.919), and his three shutouts are tied for 35^th in that group.  And since his record-tying 48-win season in 2015-2016, his win totals have dropped each season (to 42, then 34, and 32 this season).

Odd Holtby Fact… Over the last five seasons, only two of 70 goaltenders appearing in at least 50 games have a higher percentage of starts among their appearances than Braden Holtby.  He started 313 of 315 games in which he appeared (99.4 percent).  That is topped only by Chicago’s Corey Crawford (236 of 237 games/99.6 percent) and Nashville’s Pekka Rinne (305 of 306 games/99.7 percent). 

Game to Remember… November 7^th vs. Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been a tough nut for Braden Holtby to crack.  There are, of course, the postseason disappointments that finally ended last spring.  But the regular season contests against the Penguins have hardly been a success for the netminder.  Going into the contest at Capital One Arena on November 7^th, Holtby had a career regular season record of 8-9-3, 3.10, .906, and that included a three-game run in 2014-2015 in which he stopped 90 of 91 shots and pitched two shutouts.  When Holtby took the ice on this night, he already had a loss to the Penguins on his record this season, allowing seven goals on 41 shots in a 7-6 overtime loss in the Caps’ first road game of the season.

When Sidney Crosby scored a power play goal 12:16 into the first period, it looked as if it might be another tough night for Holtby and the Caps against their chief nemesis.  But when Crosby had a chance to double the Penguin lead late in the period from point blank range on a centering pass from Jake Guentzel, Holtby turned the shot aside and kept the deficit to a goal going into the first intermission.

The big save late in the first period might have provided some momentum for the Caps at both ends of the ice.  Alex Ovechkin tied the game with a power play goal seven minutes into the second period, while at the other end, Holtby stopped all 17 shots he faced in the period.

Holtby was called upon to come up big once more mid-way through third period.  Phil Kessel chased down a loose puck along the right wing wall in the neutral zone and fed it to Garrett Wilson breaking in alone over the Caps’ blue line.  Wilson tried to go high blocker, but Holtby read the play and blocked the shot out of harm’s way.  It set up a wild finish in which John Carlson fed T.J. Oshie circling to the net, and before Crosby could close the distance to tie up Oshie, he snapped a shot past goalie Casey DeSmith for the game-winner with only 74 seconds left in regulation.  Holtby finished the game with 41 saves on 42 shots, the second-highest save total of his career against the Penguins (he stopped 44 of 45 shots in a 4-1 win in Pittsburgh in December 2014).

               

Game to Forget… December 2^nd vs. Anaheim

Braden Holtby had games with worse numbers.  Twice this season he had games in which he stopped only seven of 11 shots in barely 20 minutes of work (against Florida and Chicago), but the game he and the Caps might want to forget en masse was when they hosted the Anaheim Ducks in early December.

The Caps raced out to a 3-1 lead after 20 minutes, Holtby stopping eight of the nine Anaheim shots he faced.  The Caps scored two more goals in the first 14 minutes of the second period to take a 5-1 lead and looked as if they could coast home to a win.  Then the wheels came off…fast.  Andrew Cogliano scored a goal a minute after Nic Dowd scored to give the Caps that 5-1 lead.  They got another one less than two minutes later to make the game interesting going into the third period.

In the third, the Caps forgot how to play with a lead, especially the part about discipline.  They took three penalties in the first nine minutes of the frame, and while they did kill off the first of the three Anaheim power plays, the Ducks scored on the next two man advantages to tie the game.  Pontus Aberg completed the comeback with a goal with just over five minutes left to give the Ducks an improbable 6-5 win.

For Holtby, there was that dreadful stretch of 20:24 spanning the second and third periods in which he allowed five goals on ten shots and surrendered the lead.  He finished the game having allowed six goals on 25 shots, his .760 save percentage being his worst for a full game this season.

Postseason…  Two seasons ago, Braden Holtby had an uncharacteristically poor postseason.  After posting a 1.87 goals against average and a .937 save percentage with four shutouts over his first four appearances in the playoffs (a 22-24 win-loss record), he went 7-6, 2.46, .909 in two series in 2017.  Last year, he rebounded in the Caps’ Stanley Cup run, going 16-7, 2.16, .922, with two shutouts (in Games 6 and 7 of the Eastern Conference final against Tampa Bay) after sitting in favor of Philipp Grubauer to start the first two games of the postseason.

This year, Holtby slid back to something resembling his record of two years ago, going 3-4, 2.67, .914, with one shutout in the first round loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.  His record was the clearest indication of the difficulties the Caps had on the road that they did not suffer last season.  Holtby was 3-1, 1.98, .930, with one shutout on home ice, but he was 0-3, 3.75, .894 in Carolina.  Compare that road record with what he posted on the road in last spring’s postseason: 10-3, 2.15, .922, and one shutout.

Looking ahead… Braden Holtby is heading into the final year of a five-year/$30.5 million contract, after which he will become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career.  His current deal holds the seventh-highest cap hit among goaltenders, and when one considers that Anaheim’s John Gibson and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck have larger cap hits on their deals for the coming season (source: capfriendly.com), a former Vezina winner/Stanley Cup champion would be due a raise to at least leap-frog those two players if he has a season typical of his career as a full-time netminder to date.

If the 2020-2021 salary cap goes up at the same rate as the increase from this year to 2019-2020, the cap would be about $86.7 million.  If Holtby merits a raise to lift him above the cap hits of Gibson and Hellebuyck to, say, $6.75 million per year, he would encumber almost eight percent of the cap.  Given the other decisions that the Caps have to make this off-season, plus the looming expiration of Alex Ovechkin (after 2020-2021) and Nicklas Backstrom (after this coming season), a raise from the Caps might be a bridge too far.

In the end…

Braden Holtby had something of a muddled year.  There were times, especially down the stretch, in which he looked every bit the elite goaltender he was in his best seasons.  But there were consistency issues and a vulnerability to heavy shot volumes that he had not displayed earlier in his career.  Whether this was a product of goaltending coach/director of goaltending Mitch Korn departing to Long Island with Barry Trotz after last season (he seemed to have worked magic with Robin Lehner for the Islanders this season), a defense that gave up too many quality chances, or diminished performance on his part, Holtby took quite a while to find his stride, and he could not sustain the momentum he built down the stretch of the regular season into the playoffs, particularly on the road.

It sets up something of a crossroads season ahead for Holtby, who will be looking to duplicate the timing that benefitted John Carlson in his “walk year” – a career year that sets him up for what could be a long-term contract that places him at or near the top of the compensation ladder among goaltenders.  Sadly, if that is how the season unfolds, it could be bittersweet – a successful season for Holtby and the Caps that could end with another deep playoff run followed by his departure as the business side of the sport exerts its influence.  As Dr. Seuss suggested, the player will be the guy who'll decide where to go.

Grade: B

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Goaltenders: Pheonix Copley

Pheonix Copley

"They also serve who only stand and wait."

-- John Milton

One could make an argument that the most difficult shoes to fill on the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals was backup goaltender.  For three consecutive seasons, Philipp Grubauer filled that role so reliably that he and Braden Holtby were the only goaltenders the Caps employed.  In those three seasons, Grubauer had a 36-25-6 record, a 2.25 goals against average (better than Holtby’s 2.39), a .923 save percentage (better than Holtby’s .918) and six shutouts (half of Holtby’s total despite playing in less than half as many minutes, 4,240 to 10,589).  He was so capable that he was named the starting goaltender to open the Caps’ 2018 postseason.  Grubauer played two games, watched the rest from the bench, and then he was off to Colorado as an unrestricted free agent.

Enter Pheonix Copley.  He is something of a rare breed in Washington.  Since 2005, the Caps have drafted 11 goaltenders, four of whom started 659 of the 838 games played since the first of them (Semyon Varlamov) played his first NHL game in December 2008.  Copley, on the other hand, was an undrafted free agent signed by the Caps in March 2014 after completing his second season with the Michigan Tech Huskies in the NCAA.  Sixteen months later, after 35 regular and postseason games with South Carolina and Hershey in the minor league system, he was traded to the St. Louis Blues with Troy Brouwer and a 2016 third round draft pick for T.J. Oshie.  Playing only two games for the Blues, he made his way back to Washington as part of a blockbuster deal at the 2017 trading deadline with the St. Louis that also snared defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. 

After laboring with the Hershey Bears for the remainder of the 2016-2017 season and for the full 2017-2018 season, he got his chance with the big club when Grubauer left.  It took him three weeks to get his first win with the Caps, in his third appearance, but he still had a solid start, going 9-2-1 (one no-decision), 2.61, .914, and his first NHL shutout over his first 13 games.  He hit a skid at that point, going 1-3-2, 3.82, .877, in six games before finishing his season 6-2-0, 2.74, .908 in his last eight appearances.

Fearless’ Take… Despite the fact that he started fewer games (24) this season than Philipp Grubauer started last season (28) and appeared in fewer games overall (27) than did Grubauer (35), Pheonix Copley finished the season with more wins (16) than Grubauer had last season (15).  Grubauer had better underlying numbers (2.35 goals against average, .923 save percentage) than Copley (2.90, .905), but a backup goalie has to give his team a chance to win when he is spelling the number one netminder.  Copley did that, and his numbers resembled those of Braden Holtby in 2017-2018 (2.99, .907).

Cheerless’ Take…  Those performance numbers are sort of iffy.  Looking at principal backups since 2007-2008, when the Caps reached the playoffs for the first time since the rebuild, Pheonix Copley had the third-worst save percentage (.905, topping onl Michal Neuvirth’s .903 in 2011-2012 and Justin Peters’ .881 in 2014-2015), and his 2.90 goals against average was only better than Peters’ 3.25 in 2014-2015.

Odd Copley Fact… Pheonix Copley is the first goaltender born in Alaska to reach the NHL.  Ty Conklin, who played in 215 games from 2002-2012, was raised in Alaska but was born in Phoenix, Arizona.  Odd irony, that.

Game to Remember… December 22^nd at Ottawa

As the schedule moved toward the Christmas break, Pheonix Copley, a native of North Pole, Alaska, was providing good, if not quite outstanding backup work.  In 11 appearances heading into the last game before the break, he was 7-2-1, 2.93, .902, and he had a save percentage over .900 only once in his most recent four appearances.  He got the call in Ottawa against the Senators in that last game before the break, hardly surprising given that eight of his first 11 appearances came in road games, and the Caps were playing the back half of a back-to-back set of games.

The Caps staked Copley to an early lead, Brett Connolly scoring just 92 seconds into the contest.  But Copley did his part to hold that lead, turning aside all 13 shots he faced in the first period, including a flurry of stops late in the period before the Caps added another goal to take a 2-0 lead to the first intermission.  While Jakub Vrana and Matt Niskanen were scoring goals less than five minutes apart mid-way through the second period, Copley was keeping his own net clear of pucks, stopping 12 shots in the middle period.  Washington did not score in the third period, but they did not have to.  Copley stopped all 10 shots he faced to make it 35-for-35 in posting his first NHL shutout in a 4-0 Capitals win.                                                                                                                                                                     

Game to Forget…  October 11^th at New Jersey

First game with the new club, you want to make a good impression.  Pheonix Copley did that early on against the New Jersey Devils in the Caps’ fourth game of the season, stopping a point-blank one-timer from Pavel Zacha in the seventh minute of a scoreless game.  It would be the high point of Copley’s game, though.  Peppered with 13 shots in the first period, he allowed two goals, leaving the Caps in a hole out of which they would not dig.  He kept the Caps in at least a hopeful mood in stopping 11 of 12 shots in the second period, but Copley withered under the barrage in the third, giving up three goals on 11 shots in a 6-0 loss.  It was a goal total that the Devils would top only once over the rest of the season, potting eight in an 8-5 win over the Chicago Blackhawks in January.

Postseason…  Copley did not log any minutes in the postseason.

Looking ahead… The Caps thought enough of Pheonix Copley’s performance over his first 19 appearances through the end of January (10-5-3, 2.98, .903) to sign him to a three-year/$3.3 million contract extension in early February that carries through the 2021-2022 season.  No goaltender in the Capitals system is on board for a longer period of time at the moment.  Current number one netminder Braden Holtby is entering the “walk year” of his current contract before unrestricted free agency, and minor leaguer Vitek Vanecek is an unrestricted free agent at the moment.  Prospect and presumed number one goalie in waiting Ilya Samsonov is signed through the 2020-2021 season on his entry level contract.  The Capitals, who have made a habit of having options among their goaltenders in the last decade, have a lot of moving parts at the position, but for the moment they have stability at the backup spot in Copley as Samsonov continues his development.

In the end…

Pheonix Copley was the beneficiary of good goal support; he was 7-4-0 in the 12 starts (one no-decision) in which he allowed three or more goals.  And, the 2018 portion of his season (9-2-1, 2.62, .914, with one shutout) was better than the 2019 portion of his season (7-5-2, 3.17, .896).  He has succeeded, if not replaced Philipp Grubauer as the Caps’ backup goalie.  And, having only one year as the full-time backup, he has not yet demonstrated that he can shoulder an extended load.  His longest streak of consecutive starts this season was four, back in November.  He won two of the first three in that set, posting a .922 save percentage, but he faltered in the fourth start, allowing four goals on 22 shots, the last three of them coming in a span of 75 seconds early in the second period in Montreal on November 19^th, ending his evening after 21:35 of work (the Caps came back to win that game in overtime, 5-4). 

While winning does count for something, and Copley did his share of it as a backup, his performance suggests that there are still improvements to be made.  By the same token Copley suffers comparisons with his predecessor in this role, Philipp Grubauer, who might have been the best backup in the league over his last three seasons in Washington.  He was almost certainly that in his last season with the Caps.  Copley has come a long way from being an undrafted free agent who was traded, and then brought back to the club.  But there is still some way to go to provide comfort to the club that he is up to the task over the next three seasons.

Grade: B

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Jonas Siegenthaler

Jonas Siegenthaler

"You never get a second chance to make a first impression."

-- Oscar Wilde…or Mark Twain…or Will Rogers…or a 1966 clothing ad

Jonas Siegenthaler is the first of his kind in one respect with the Washington Capitals.  He is the first player drafted in team history who was born in Switzerland (Timo Helbling, also born in Switzerland, was obtained by the Caps via trade in 2007 and played two games for Washington).  When he took the ice on November 9^th against the Columbus Blue Jackets in what was his first NHL game, he became the 178^th defenseman to suit up for the Caps in team history (Tyler Lewington and Nick Jensen would become the 179^th and 180^th defensemen to dress for the club later in the season).

Siegenthaler appeared in 26 games in this, his rookie season, all but one of them over a 38-game stretch from November 9^th through February 5^th (he appeared in the regular season finale on April 6^th).  And while he posted modest scoring numbers (0-4-4), his four points were one more than Mike Green scored in his first NHL season (1-2-3 in 22 games in 2005-2006) and only two fewer than what John Carlson posted in his inaugural season (1-5-6 in 22 games in 2009-2010).

Not surprisingly, there was a bit of an up-and-down quality to Sigenthaler’s season.  He recorded three of his four points and was plus-7 in a 15-day/seven-game stretch from December 14^th through December 29^th.  In the 19 games that preceded and followed that stretch, he was 0-1-1, minus-1.

Fearless’ Take… Jonas Siegenthaler made his debut on a defending Stanley Cup champion, so there was a lot of talent and support around him.  Still, he finished the season with the eighth-best plus-minus rating among first year defensemen in team history (plus-6). 

Cheerless’ Take…  Siegenthaler is a work in progress who might contribute in a more meaningful way down the road, but in 2018-2019, the Caps were just 14-9-3 in the 26 games in which he played.  And, he did not age well in this regard.  Washington was 12-4-1 in his first 17 games, 2-5-2 in the last nine games he played.

Odd Siegenthaler Fact… All four points Siegenthaler recorded this season came on the road.  He was also a plus-5 in 12 games away from home.  He was 0-0-0, plus-1, in 14 games at Capital One Arena.

Game to Remember… November 9^th vs. Columbus

It is not the best of circumstances in which to make an NHL debut, but it often happens that one player’s good fortune comes, if not at the expense of, than simultaneously with another’s misfortune.  Such was the case in early November, when John Carlson was declared out of the Caps’ game on November 9^th against Columbus with a lower-body injury.  With Brooks Orpik already on the shelf, the team called up defensemen Aaron Ness and Jonas Siegenthaler from the Hershey Bears. 

The particulars of Siegenthaler’s debut against the Blue Jackets did not jump off the page – no points, an “even” plus-minus rating, a shot on goal, three hits, two blocked shots, along with three giveaways in 12 minutes of ice time – but it was a solid performance against a playoff-caliber opponent. 

                                                                                                                                                                     

Game to Forget…  December 19^th vs. Pittsburgh

Jonas Siegenthaler was baptized into the Capitals-Penguins rivalry in a mid-December game at Capital One Arena.  It took him two shifts to take his first penalty against the Penguins.  He lost track of Sidney Crosby coming around from behind the net to redirect an Evgeni Malkin feed that tied the game at a goal apiece less than three minutes after the Caps took the lead.  He did not skate the last six minutes of the contest with the Caps trying to get the tying goal in a 2-1 game.  Siegenthaler finished his night without a point, no shots on goal (two attempts), two giveaways, and the penalty in 8:24 of ice time, his lowest of the season.

Postseason…  It certainly was not his fault, but after Jonas Siegenthaler took the ice for the first time in Game 4 of the opening round of the playoffs through Game 7, the Caps went 1-3 after taking a 2-1 lead in the first three games of the series.  He did not record a point in any of the four games and did not record a shot on goal in Games 4-6.  He did, however, average more than twice as much ice time (16:00 per game) than the player he replaced, Christian Djoos (7:24), although that number was inflated some by his logging 20:27 in the Caps’ double overtime loss in Game 7 that ended their season.

Looking ahead… Siegenthaler is entering the last year of his entry-level contract that carries a cap hit of $714,116.  He will be a non-arbitration eligible restricted free agent upon its expiration.  The Caps are not an especially deep team in defensive prospects (depending on how one stands on the potential of Alexander Alexeyev or Lucas Johansen), and the Caps could be losing the services of Brooks Orpik and/or Matt Niskanen this off-season.  It leaves a clear path for Siegenthaler to take on a bigger role in his development program.

In the end…

Jonas Siegenthaler, who has (and who seems likely to have with this team) an opportunity for growth, might not have a long resume with the Caps, but he is not inexperienced for one as young as he is (he turned 22 years old this month).  He has played in European hockey, has represented his country multiple times, and has more than 40 games of AHL experience over three seasons, and that is just since his being drafted in 2015. 

If there is a Capital he resembles that fans might recognize, it might be ex-Cap Karl Alzner.  Both were of a quiet demeanor on the ice, both could be physical from time to time but depended more on position and angles, and neither seems to have much of an offensive upside.  Each might be thought of as the modern defensive defenseman, not the more physical species that might be illustrated by Brooks Orpik, a development product of the pre-2004-2005 era of hockey.  

With the potential for significant changes on the Caps’ blue line heading into next season, the team’s success might depend in significant part on just how much more Siegenthaler develops into a dependable night-in, night-out defenseman.  His will be a story to watch as the coming season unfolds, but his first experience in the NHL provides some measure of hope for a successful future.

Grade: B

Photo: Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post