Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Richard Panik

Richard Panik

“I have always been delighted at the prospect of a new day, a fresh try, one more start, with perhaps a bit of magic waiting somewhere behind the morning.”

-- J. B. Priestley

Richard Panik has been one of those hockey players over the course of his career that are uncommonly common.  First, you have to realize that if you play hockey at the NHL level for any length of time, you’re among the best 500 or so players on the planet.  Fans sometimes forget this.  On the other hand, there are a fair number of players who accumulate a volume of games by virtue of being, quite literally, “journeymen.”

Panik qualifies as such a player.  Taken in the second round of the 2009 Entry Draft (52^nd overall) by the Tampa Bay Lightning, he worked his way up through juniors and minor league hockey to join the Lightning in 2012-2013.  After two seasons in Florida, he was waived in October 2014 and claimed by the Toronto Maple Leafs.  A year and a half later, he was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks, where he lasted two seasons before he was traded to the Arizona Coyotes.  He played for a season and change in Arizona and became an unrestricted free agent at the end of last season.  On the first day of the free agency signing period last July, he signed a four-year contract with the Washington Capitals for $11 million.  The Caps will be his fifth NHL team as he embarks on his eighth NHL season.

What Panik has accomplished along his hockey journey is improve his top-end performance numbers.  He was not an especially prolific goal scorer in either of his first two stops, averaging 0.11 goals per game in Tampa and 0.14 goals per game in Toronto.  But he did ramp up that production in his last two stops, averaging 0.23 goals per game in Chicago and 0.20 goals per game in Arizona.  But last season in Arizona was an odd one for Panik, too.  He started slowly (0-1-1, minus-3, in his first seven games) and ended slowly (1-1-2, minus-1, in his last 11 games).  In the 57 games in between, he was a very productive 13-17-30, plus-1.  It might not have been a coincidence that Arizona was 29-23-5 in those 57 games, while the Coyotes went 6-9-3 in the games that made up Panik’s slow start and finish.

Odd Panik Fact…

In his first three seasons, Richard Panik totaled 177 shots on goal in 151 games.  In his first full season with the Chicago Blackhawks (2016-2017), his fifth career season, he recorded 155 shots on goal.  He did not reach 100 shots on goal in any of his first four seasons, but he has not recorded fewer than 136 in any of his last three seasons.

Fearless’ Take…

Richard Panik is a fairly efficient shooter.  Only once in seven seasons was his shooting percentage under 10 percent (2013-2014, when he was 5.4 percent on 114 shots in 50 games with Tampa Bay).  And, he has 50 goals in 229 games over his last three seasons.  This is a useful benchmark if you are thinking of Panik as a replacement for Brett Connolly at right wing on the third line.  Connolly had 52 goals in 217 games in his three seasons with the Caps.  What Panik added over the last three seasons in Chicago and Arizona that Connolly did not in Washington was assists.  He had 62 in 229 games, while Connolly had 44 in 217 games.  Line assignments and linemate skills in converting chances matter here, but it might be something to watch with Panik on the third line, if that is his role.

Cheerless’ Take…

Brett Connolly was not a penalty killer for the Caps, a role one might envision for a bottom six forward who does not get a lot of even strength ice time or power play chances.  But Panik was sixth among Arizona forwards in shorthanded ice time per game last season (1:12 per game).  It was more than he had in his brief stint with the Coyotes to end the 2017-2018 season (22 seconds per game).  In his previous stop, in Chicago, he skated a total of 21 seconds of shorthanded ice time over 149 games.  Although the Caps do bring back five forwards who averaged more than a minute of shorthanded ice time per game last season (Carl Hagelin, Lars Eller, Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd, and Chandler Stephenson), penalty killing is something that could use improvement.  The question remains if he will have such a penalty killing role with the Caps, and if so, how much of one. 

Potential Milestones:

• 100 career goals (75; he needs 25)
• 100 career assists (84; he needs 16)
• 200 career points (159; he needs 41)

The Big Question… Richard Panik might be able to replace Brett Connolly’s production, but can he replace his chemistry?

Managing personnel in a sport that has as much roster turnover as one finds in the NHL seems to be equal parts science and art.  Especially among bottom six forwards, one can find a player to replace another with similar statistical profiles, but whether outcomes with the new player will be as successful as those with the old are harder to predict.  Brett Connolly was something of a disappointment in previous stops as a former high first round draft pick that did not perform to that level.  However, he found a stable role with the Caps – third line right wing with almost entirely even strength responsibility – and flourished in it. 

Richard Panik is equally well-traveled, but he is a different sort of player than Connolly, less an offense-oriented, efficient goal scoring type than he is a balanced player, both in terms of goals scored and assists passed out, and perhaps being more of a two-way player, even if he does not get a significant penalty killing load.  Whether he fits into the third line right wing role as comfortably as Connolly left it is an issue that comes with roster turnover, and it is magnified on a team that expect to contend for a Stanley Cup.

In the end…

Richard Panik is a player with a lot of tools in his tool kit.  He does not use them as an elite artisan as much as he does a good craftsman.  He scores goals, he passes out assists, he has good possession numbers.  In that respect, he is probably a more rounded player than the one he appears to be replacing – Brett Connolly – and that might make for a player who can weather offensive slumps better because he can rely on other talents to contribute at both ends of the ice.  Fresh in the memory of Capitals Nation is how well the bottom six forward corps performed on its way to the Stanley Cup in 2018 (27 goals in 24 games from players who occupied bottom six roles) and how much less productive it was last spring in the opening round against Carolina (five goals in seven games).  If Panik can approximately replace Connolly’s production and contribute more of a two way game, perhaps the Capitals will find themselves better able to weather slumps in the postseason than they were last spring.

Projection: 77 games, 13-17-30, plus-2

Photo: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“Let us never know what old age is. Let us know the happiness time brings, not count the years.”

-- Ausonius

He just keeps going.  Six years ago, some asked “what the hell happened?” They were asking, “what’s wrong with Alex Ovechkin?”  They were asking, “is Alexander Ovechkin still a superstar?"  Ovechkin had come off consecutive seasons in which he recorded fewer than 40 goals, the only time that has happened in his career, and he was just starting up in the abbreviated 2012-2013 schedule with a cloud of uncertainty hanging over him. 

He responded as one would come to expect how he would.  He scored 32 goals in 48 games in that abbreviated schedule, winning the Maurice Richard trophy for the third time and setting off a string of six Richard Trophies in seven seasons, over which he scored 319 goals in 531 games, an average of 49 goals per 82 games.  Those 319 goals are 84 more than the second-place goal scorer over the period (John Tavares: 235).  And what might be most remarkable about last season, look at the table above.  Last season was more or less "average" in the context of his career overall.

As one would expect, his goal scoring matters, as it has over his career.  The Caps were 26-8-2 in the 36 games in which Ovechkin scored a goal last season.  The points percentage in those games (.750) is consistent with what it has been over his entire career (.728/341-113-45).

Odd Ovechkin Fact…

Alex Ovechkin led the league in goals scored for the eighth time in his career last season.  However, he did not lead the league in total games with at least one goal scored.  He did not finish second.  He did not finish third.  He scored a goal in 36 games last season, tied with Steven Stamkos for fourth place, behind Leon Draisaitl (39), Nathan MacKinnon (37) and John Tavares (37).

Bonus Odd Ovechkin Fact…

If Alex Ovechkin sat out the last four seasons, he would still hold an almost 30-goal lead over his closest pursuer in goal scoring since he came into the league (475 to 446 for Sidney Crosby).  That he has more than 200 more goals than the field over those 14 seasons (212 over Crosby) looks especially dominant when one considers that over his first 14 NHL seasons, Wayne Gretzky had 182 more goals (765) than his closest pursuer over that period (Mike Gartner: 583).

Extra Bonus Odd Ovechkin Fact…

Alex Ovechkin has won the league goal scoring title eight times.  Seven different players finished second to him in those seasons.  Steven Stamkos is the only player to finish second to Ovechkin twice (2012-2013 and 2014-2015).  The others:

• Ilya Kovalchuk (2007-2008)
• Jeff Carter (2008-2009)
• Corey Perry (2013-2014
• Patrick Kane (2015-2016)
• Patrik Laine (2017-2018)
• Leon Draisaitl (2018-2019)

Fearless’ Take…

Lost in all the milestones and records is that Alex Ovechkin, for all those milestones and records, has been something of an underrated postseason performer.  He is the active leader in goals per game in the postseason (0.51), a far more frequent goal scorer than the next active player in line among the 102 active players with at least 75 postseason games played (Logan Couture: 0.41 per game).   And, he has gotten better with age in this area.  Ovechkin has not gone consecutive playoff games without a point since Game 7 of the 2017 series against Pittsburgh that ended the Caps’ season and Game 1 of the opening round of the 2018 playoffs against Columbus.  In his last 30 playoff games, he is 19-17-36, plus-6.

Cheerless’ Take…

His bike riding needs work.  On the ice, this might be more of an odd fact, but one thing about Ovechkin’s career goal scoring that is unusual is how poor, relatively speaking, he has been against Metropolitan Division teams compared to teams of other divisions.  His career goals per game, by division:

• Central: 119 games/0.69 goals per game
• Northwest: 29/0.66
• Atlantic: 290/0.64
• Northeast: 149/0.62
• Southeast: 203/0.61
• Metropolitan: 174/0.55
• Pacific: 120/0.50

Potential Milestones:

• 700 career goals (658; he needs 42)
• Top-ten all time in career goals scored (he needs 32 to tie Mario Lemieux (690) for 10^th place)
• 1,100 career games played (1,084; he needs 16)
• 600 career assists (553; he needs 47)
• 1,300 career points (1,211; he needs 89)
• 250 career power play goals (247; he needs three)
• 500 career games scoring at least one goal (499; he needs one)
• 10^th place in career hat tricks (23; currently tied with Jari Kurri)
• 4^th place in career multi-goal games (132; he needs three to tie Mike Gartner)
• Top-five in career game winning goals (107; he needs three to tie Brett Hull and Teemu Selanne, unless Patrick Marleau (106) gets there first)
• Most seasons played as a Capital (this will be his 15^th season, tying Calle Johansson for the all-time high)
• 700 career penalty minutes (694; he needs six)
• Top-ten in career penalty minutes as a Capital (694; he needs five to tie Greg Adams for 10^th place)
• Tie for first in all-time total of 50-goal seasons (eight; he needs one to tie Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky)
• Second place in all time 40-goal seasons (10; he needs one to break a tie with Marcel Dionne and Mario Lemieux)
• Tie for second place all time in 30-goal seasons (14; he needs one to tie Jaromir Jagr)
• Become second player in NHL history to record 30 or more goals in each of his first 15 seasons (Mike Gartner; Ovechkin holds the record for having done it with one team)

The Big Question… Is there another 50-goal season in Alex Ovechkin’s future?

Alex Ovechkin will be 34 years old when the puck drops on the 2019-2010 season.  Only one player in NHL history scored 50 or more goals having reached his 34^th birthday.  John Bucyk scored 51 goals in 78 games for the 1970-1971 Boston Bruins.  Odd thing about that; Bucyk did not lead that team in goal scoring, and it wasn’t close.  Phil Esposito recorded 76 goals. 

If any player is going to hit 50 goals this season, whatever his age, Ovechkin would rank most likely to do so on many lists.  Since he came into the league in 2005-2006, only three other players have recorded multiple goal seasons – Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Steven Stamkos with two apiece.  Ovechkin has done it eight times, four times in the last six seasons, and had the 2012-2013 season been played in its entirety, he might have five 50-goal seasons in seven years (he had 32 goals in 48 games that season).

The key here might be his start.  He had 12 goals in his first 14 games last season on his way to a 51-goal season.  In 2017-2018 he had seven goals in his first two games and ten in his first eight contests on the way to 49 goals.  In 2016-2017 he had seven goals in his first 11 games, but faded and finished with 33.  But the year before that he had goals in each of his first five games and eight in his first dozen contests before finishing with 50.

On the other hand, reaching his 34^th birthday, a slow start could inspire whispers and questions of the sort that were being asked of him in 2013.  Coincidentally, that was the last season in which Ovechkin did not record at least five goals in his first ten games (he had two goals through ten games).  In his last 38 games in that abbreviated season, he recorded 30 goals.  Age will claim his talents and production as it does every player at some point, but dismissing him is done at one’s peril.

In the end…

Alex Ovechkin is playing for history at this point in his career.  He has won every individual performance award available to forwards, except the Selke Trophy (for top defensive forward), several of them multiple times.  He has played in seven All-Star games; he has been named to the NHL All-Star first or second team 11 times, once at two positions (first team right wing and second team left wing in 2012-2013).

But with all the accomplishments, the beginning of every season from here on out is going to find Caps fans holding their breath that this is the year when the inevitable decline in performance appears.  That it has taken this long is remarkable when one considers that Wayne Gretzky did not score as many as 40 goals in a season after his 30-year old season.  Mario Lemieux did not do so after his 31-year old season.  Brett Hull did not do so after his 32-year old season.  Jaromir Jagr did not do so after age 33.  Gordie Howe did so once after age 28, although there were fewer games on the regular season schedule in his era.  Until it happens, though, it is Ovechkin versus the field as far as goal scoring goes.  From year to year, someone emerges as a potential competitor, but none seem to last as a true rival.  He has been the league’s constant in goal scoring, and Caps fans hope they will be counting on that to continue as a source of happiness for years to come.

Projection: 81 games, 48-40-88, plus-10

Photo: Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“What a mistake to suppose that the passions are strongest in youth! The passions are not stronger, but the control over them is weaker! They are more easily excited, they are more violent and apparent; but they have less energy, less durability, less intense and concentrated power than in maturer life.”

-- Edward Bulwer-Lytton

Few players in the NHL play the game with more passion than T.J. Oshie.  The phrase, “he comes to play every night,” seems to have been created for him.  Just not by Edward Bulwer-Lytton.  But Bulwer-Lytton certainly penned a other phrases that could also apply to Oshie…

“It was a dark and stormy night…” There have been a lot of “dark and stormy nights” in the career of T.J. Oshie, at least more than his fans would like.  And by that, we mean nights in which he suffered injury that took him out the lineup for extended stretches.  In 11 seasons in the NHL, Oshie missed at least a dozen games five times; he has played as many as 80 games twice and has never played an entire regular season schedule.  Last season he missed 13 regular season games, 11 to an upper body injury, another to illness, and another for an undisclosed reason.  There were also the three games he missed in the postseason with a broken clavicle suffered Game 4 of the opening round series against Carolina.  He might not have been a difference maker in either Game 5 or Game 6, each game a lopsided decision for each team.  But in a tied Game 7 that went to a second overtime before being decided?  It is not too big a stretch to think his presence would have mattered.

“Prudence, patience, labor, valor; these are the stars that rule the career of mortals.” In his seven seasons in St. Louis, Oshie was a consistent goal scorer bordering on spooky.  He never averaged less than 0.23 goals per game (and that was in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, cut shorter by injury that limited him to 30 games) and never more than 0.27 goals per game.  He stepped up in a big way after coming to Washington.  Only once in four seasons has he averaged less than 0.33 goals per game (in 2017-2018, 0.24 goals per game).  Last season, that goal scoring mattered.  The Caps lost only one game in regulation in the 20 contests in which Oshie scored at least one goal, posting a record of 16-1-3.

Odd Oshie Fact…

Since 2008-2009, when T.J. Oshie came into the NHL, only three Capitals have recorded more 20-goal seasons with the club than Oshie: Alex Ovechkin (11), Nicklas Backstrom (six), and Alexander Semin (four).  Oshie has three such seasons.  He also spent the first seven of those 11 seasons in St. Louis with the Blues.

Bonus Odd Oshie Fact…

In 11 seasons in the NHL, T.J. Oshie is one of only three players over that span to record at least 65 shots in each of those seasons (65 was his career low, in 2012-2013) and post shooting percentages over 10 percent in each of them.  The other two players are Sidney Crosby and Thomas Vanek.

Extra Bonus Odd Oshie Fact…

T.J. Oshie is the all-time games played, goals, assists, and points leader born in the state of Washington (Everett).  His 212-306-518 scoring line in 734 games tops the second-place player in all four categories, Tyler Johnson (139-169-308 in 469 career games).

Fearless’ Take…

Over the last four seasons, no duo in the NHL has posted more power play goals than the pair of Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie (104).  Sure, Ovechkin has 71 of them, but Oshie manning the center of the 1-3-1 power play scheme and a right-handed shot best able to accept and convert passes from Nicklas Backstrom or Evgeny Kuznetsov on the right side for 33 power play goals is a critical ingredient to the Caps’ success on the man advantage.  In the 32 games as a Capital in which Oshie scored at least one power play goal (he had two in a 4-3 overtime loss to Tampa Bay in October 2017), the Caps are 24-3-5.

Cheerless’ Take…

T.J. Oshie is an example of the player with an ice time conundrum (did I use that word right, cuz?...”yes, you did”).  More ice time, worse outcomes.  Last season he skated at least 20 minutes 18 times, but the Caps were just 7-8-3 in those games.  He skated less than 18 minutes in 23 games, and the team was 16-6-1.  Then there was “Ornery Oshie.”  Seven times he was credited with five or more hits, and the Caps were 2-4-1.  Blocked shots?  The Caps were 7-4-3 in the 14 games in which he had at least two.  Oshie clearly plays with a lot of passion and sacrifices his body in service to winning, but wins don’t seem to come quite as often when he is playing games like that, at least last season.

Potential Milestones:

• 800 career NHL games played (734; he needs 66)
• 300 career games as a Capital (291; he needs nine)
• Top-20 in career goals as a Capital (102; he needs 27 to tie Alan Haworth, unless Evgeny Kuznetsov gets there first)
• Top-five in NHL goals among alumni of the University of North Dakota (212; he needs one to tie Jason Blake for fifth place)

The Big Question… Can T.J. Oshie’s game be “tamed” and preserve its effectiveness?

No one who watches T.J. Oshie play will make a claim that he is a timid player or that he won’t do what it takes to win, even if it means putting himself in harm’s way and skating into tight places that invite physical contact.  On the other hand, after appearing in 80 games in his first season with the Capitals, he has missed 35 regular season games over the past three seasons.  The odd part of it all is that in the last three seasons, the Caps have a better points percentage (72.9 percent of available standings points earned) in games Oshie missed than in those in which he played (65.4 percent). 

One might argue that this is a superficial comparison that should also be subjected to accounting for who the Caps played when Oshie was out, where they played (home/away), and even when (whether the Caps had safe seeding/standings position in his absence).  But regular season games are one thing, playoff games are another.  The Caps rallied after Oshie’s injury in last season’s series against Carolina to wallop the Hurricanes at home in Game 5, 6-0.  But the Caps scored only five goals over the final two games of the series, none in the last 57 minutes of their season.  When you think of the adversity that the Caps faced in the first round of their 2018 postseason, adversity that was overcome on their Stanley Cup journey, Having all hands on deck to address the difficulties faced against Carolina might have had a different outcome had all hands been on deck.  Perhaps history would have repeated itself.

This is not to lay blame at the feet of Oshie for playing hard and finding himself in an awkward circumstance that led to his injury in Game 5, nor is it an argument that Oshie has to change his game radically to preserve his presence in the lineup.  This has been the tradeoff the Caps and Oshie have made since he arrived in Washington.  He plays bigger than his size, is absolutely fearless in his approach to the game, but it has come at a price.  Taming his game could alter the balance of aggression and production, and that might be a bargain neither he nor the club can effectively make.

In the end…

Alex Ovechkin is the straw that stirs the drink, and Nicklas Backstrom knows how to serve it up, but T.J. Oshie might be the secret ingredient.  In his four years in Washington he is second in goals (102, to Ovechkin’s 183), fifth in assists (106), fifth in points (208), second in power play goals (33), tied for second in shorthanded goals (two), fourth in game-winning goals (16), second in shooting percentage (17.1 percent; minimum: 50 shots), sixth in credited hits (486), sixth in blocked shots (221, tops among forwards), and is first in takeaways (208, he has a takeaway/giveaway ratio of a superb 1.34:1). 

On top of that, Oshie is tied for second in postseason goals over the four seasons he has skated for the Caps (19, with Evgeny Kuznetsov), fifth in assists (26), four in points (45), tied for second in power play goals (10, with John Carlson), and tops in game-winning goals (five).  He might be overlooked in some quarters, between the spotlight shining on Alex Ovechkin and the persistent, “is Nicklas Backstrom the most underrated player” question.  But his importance to the club, both in his read-for-battle attitude and his production across a range of statistical categories and situations, brings to mind another quote from Edward Bulwer-Lytton… “The brave man wants no charms to encourage him to his duty, and the good man scorns all warnings that would deter him from fulfilling it.”

Projection: 73 games, 24-27-51, plus-6

Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Brendan Leipsic

Brendan Leipsic

“It is, generally, in the season of prosperity that men discover their real temper, principles, and designs.”

-- Edmund Burke

From a distance, the love of hockey and the love (or at least tolerance) of travel intersect in the career of Washington Capitals forward Brendan Leipsic.  Let us start with the 2012 Entry Draft.  Leipsic was taken in the third round (89^th overall) by the Nashville Predators, right between James Melindy by the Phoenix Coyotes and Ben Johnson of the New Jersey Devils, neither of whom have yet appeared in an NHL game.

Leipsic never dressed for the Predators, traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in February 2015 with Olli Jokinen and a 2015 first round draft pick for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli.  He lasted two-plus years in the Toronto organization but dressed for only six games (in 2015-2016) before he was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2017 expansion draft.  Leipsic played in 44 games for Vegas but did not make it with the Golden Knights to the playoffs, traded to the Vancouver Canucks for Phillip Holm in February 2018.  He finished the 2017-2018 season and started the 2018-2019 season in Vancouver, appearing in 31 games before he was waived and claimed by the Los Angeles Kings in December 2018.  Leipsic appeared in 45 games with the Kings but was not extended a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent at the end of the 2018-2019 season.  He was released by Los Angeles on June 25^th, but less than a week later he signed as an unrestricted free agent by the Caps. 

So now, having just turned 25 years old this past May, Leipsic is with his sixth NHL organization, having played for four teams in a total of 126 games before arriving in Washington.  Unlike other Caps signings this summer, Leipsic is on a “show me” deal, a one-year/$700,000 contract (capfriendly.com)

Odd Leipsic Fact…

Of 649 players to skate for the Portland Winterhawks of the Western Hockey League, Brendan Leipsic is one of only ten to record 300 or more points.

Bonus Odd Leipsic Fact…

Brendan Leipsic was the only forward in the NHL last year to play in a total of 60 or more games, split between two clubs, and not log a single second of shorthanded ice time. In 126 career NHL games he has logged a grand total of 30 seconds in shorthanded ice time.

Fearless’ Take…

Hockey is not Dancing with the Stars, but if it was, Brendan Leipsic might be the sort to try and trip his opponent in mid-routine.  In 2014, he was named “most annoying prospect in hockey” by The Hockey News.  But there might be more than that here.  Despite his frequent flyer miles, he has averaged 0.38 points per game in his brief career to date, more than 30 points per 82 games.  He has averaged 23 assists per 82 games in his career, and if you need couple of points of comparison for that, Lars Eller had 23 assists in 81 games last season; Jakub Vrana had 23 assists in 82 games.  His 0.28 assists per game over his career are more than the departed Andre Burakovsky averaged over five seasons with the Caps (0.25).

Cheerless’ Take…

There is something to be said for a player who is enough in demand to have been picked up by six franchises.  But in the space of barely seven years, from his being drafted to being signed by the Caps?  That makes him something of an expendable player, and he has compiled one of the stranger histories in that regard, having been traded (twice), exposed and selected in an expansion draft, waived, not given a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, and signed as an unrestricted free agent.

Potential Milestones:

• 200 NHL games (126; he needs 74)

The Big Question… Is Brendan Leipsic merely in need of some stability in his environment to flourish?

Brendan Leipsic has played for four franchises and did not play more than 45 games for any of them (45 games for Los Angeles last season).  It is one thing for a veteran approaching the end of his career to parlay a series of short-term deals, trades, and the like into extending his career.  That veteran likely has the benefit of many games of experience and a body of work and skills well known across the league.  It would seem to be more difficult for a young player, still (hopefully) on the climbing portion of his developmental arc, to develop a body of work and skills having to move from organization to organization, learning new systems, learning how to live and cope with life as a pro hockey player, and trying to achieve some measure of stability in that existence. 

In a way, Leipsic’s modest contract argues for that stability.  The Capitals have to make moves on their roster to shed almost $1.4 million from their payroll.  Moving Leipsic’s cap burden in its entirely yields barely half of that ($700,000), and that would be the case if no cap burden comes back in trade.  Further, Leipsic is not waiver exempt, so exposing him to a waiver claim with the objective of assigning him to Hershey in the AHL risks losing a forward the Caps targeted for signing in free agency.

In the end…

Leipsic will be part of a competition for spots on a reworked bottom-six forward corps for the Caps, perhaps as a fourth liner with Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway.  At first blush, Leipsic will add more speed and perhaps more orneriness than the fourth line possessed last season.  He has an opportunity in Washington that he might not have had in his previous stops.  Improving the consistency and performance of the bottom six forwards, particularly with respect to the two-way play of the fourth line, was a top priority.  Leipsic will not likely contribute much, if anything, in penalty killing, but his offense could surprise given his career per-game production and a chance to display his talents for a club over a whole season.  To that, add that he is on a one-year demonstration contract, an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent at the end of the season and looking warrant a deal that could take him close to his 30^th birthday.  That Leipsic will have this chance on perhaps the best team he has skated on could provide the showcase to display the true nature of his ability.

Projection: 61 games, 7-17-24, minus-1

Photo: Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

“Concentrate all your thoughts upon the work at hand. The sun's rays do not burn until brought to a focus.”

-- Alexander Graham Bell

In less than 15 months, Evgeny Kuznetsov went from Stanley Cup champion and a player some thought deserving of the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player of the postseason to suspended for four years from international play for a positive test for a banned substance. 

It came on the heels of what was an inconsistent, disappointing season for one of the most innately gifted players in the history of the franchise.  It was not that his production fell off a cliff; his top-end numbers were down (21-51-72 in 76 games, compared to 27-56-83 the previous season) but not by drastic amounts.  It was that after an 83-point season, one of 18 players appearing in at least 75 games to average more than a point-per-game in 2017-2018, he seemed to be on the brink of taking a place among the elite performers in the NHL.

He started hot last season, going 7-25-32 in his first 28 games and not going consecutive games without a point.  He finished strong, going 4-8-12 in his last dozen games.  However, there was that dry void in the middle – 10-18-28 in 36 games.  It was by no means a bad stretch of games; he had seven multi-point games in that part of the schedule, including a three-point and a four-point game.  But, it was not an elite stretch either; in half of those games (18) he did not record a point.  That was a bit hard to accept for the top-line center on this team.  And it mattered.  The Caps were just 11-15-1 in the 27 games in which he did not record a point.

Odd Kuznetsov Fact…

If Evgeny Kuznetsov posts at least 20 multi-point games this season, he will become the 11^th capital to do it more than once.  The others:

• Alex Ovechkin: 10 seasons
• Mike Gartner: 6
• Nicklas Backstrom: 5
• Peter Bondra: 5
• Dennis Maruk: 3
• Adam Oates: 2
• Bob Carpenter: 2
• Geoff Courtnall: 2
• Michal Pivonka: 2
• Mike Ridley: 2

Bonus Odd Kuznetsov Fact…

Kuznetsov is one of six players over the last five seasons to post at least 300 points and record a plus-minus of plus-60 or better (328 points, plus-65).  The others:

• Nikita Kucherov (444/plus-99)
• Brad Marchand (373/plus-84)
• Mark Scheifele (336/plus-72)
• Artemi Panarin (320/plus-63)
• Patrice Bergeron (318/plus-70)

Fearless’ Take…

You have to wonder what a season for Kuznetsov would look like if he really put it all together.  There was the 2015-2016 season, when he received votes for the All Star team, Byng, Hart, and Selke trophies.  Even with the let down in 2016-2017 (59 points), he earned votes for the Selke trophy.  He posted career highs of 27 goals and 83 points in 2017-2018 and might have added a Conn Smythe trophy.  Despite last year being a disappointing one, he still posted more than 50 assists for the third time in four seasons, one of only seven players in the league to do it at least three times in the last four seasons.  (Nicklas Backstrom is the only player to do it all four years and has a six-year streak running).  The talent is clearly there; Caps fans just have not yet seen the full spectrum of it over an entire season.

Cheerless’ Take…

Kuznetsov did not do particularly well with a heavy ice time burden.  In 22 games in which he skated more than 20 minutes, he was 5-14-19, plus-1, and the Caps were 9-7-6.  He also has, if not an extreme, than at least a modest “sawtooth” pattern to his scoring over his five full seasons in the NHL: 37 points in 80 games in 2014-2015, 77 in 82 games the following year, 59 in 82 games in 2016-2017, 83 points in 2017-2018, and 72 points last season.  

And, there was the playoff performance.  Yes, a lot of Caps underperformed their 2018 contributions, but Kuznetsov is the top line center.  He underperforms and, well, we saw what happened.  He did score what would be the last goal in the Caps’ season, in Game 7 against Carolina, but it was the only one he scored in the series.  Compare that with the 12 he had in 24 games in the 2018 playoffs, and it was quite a disappointment.

Potential Milestones:

• 400 career points (337; he needs 63)
• 1,000 career shots on goal (892; he needs 108)
• 100 career multi-point games (81; he needs 19)
• Top-20 all time in goals as a Capital (101; he needs 28 to tie Alan Haworth (129), unless T.J. Oshie gets there first)
• Top-20 all time in points as a Capital (337; he needs 23 to tie Mike Green (360))
• Top-15 all time in points as a Capital (337; he needs 71 to tie Alexander Semin (408), unless John Carlson gets there first)
• Top-15 all time in assists as a Capital (236; he needs 23 to tie Larry Murphy (259))
• Top-15 all time in game winning goals as a Capital (20; he needs two to tie Bob Carpenter (22))

The Big Question… Will off-ice issues be too much of a distraction for Evgeny Kuznetsov this season?

This question might be the elephant in the locker room.  Washington cannot succeed if Kuznetsov has a season that does not measure up to last year’s standard, and even matching that would be something of a disappointment for those who believe him to be an elite talent.  It is a confounding situation in which Kuznetsov finds himself, high expectations under the burden of his suspension, but even with a “disappointing” 70-point season he would be only the eighth player in Caps history with four 70-plus point seasons, and only five will have had more.  One thing to watch for is what kind of start Kuznetsov gets off to.  In three of the last four seasons, he has recorded at least 20 points in the Caps’ first 20 games (2015-2016, 2017-2018, and last season).  A slow start would be an early indicator that not all is well.

The Caps simply cannot afford a sluggish or distracted Kuznetsov having his production diminish.  In five full seasons with the club, Washington is 243-114-42 in games in which he recorded a point.  That works out to a 50-23-9 record per 82 games.  The difference he makes on the power play is even more important.  In those five seasons, he has at least one power play point in 86 games, and the team has a record of 64-15-7 in those contests.  Yes, with points come success, but he being a centerpiece of that success, if his production drops off to any appreciable degree, it seems unlikely that the Caps can make it up from other players.

In the end…

While no other sanctions appear under consideration, or at least imminent, Kuznetsov’s suspension from international play could be a cloud that hangs over Kuznetsov all season.  It could put his play under a microscope, people looking for every hiccup in his performance as a reason to think the worst.  It is the sort of distraction a team thinking of itself as a contender in a hyper-competitive division does not need.

However, looked at from a different point of view, Kuznetsov has been given an opportunity.  If he is able to focus on the game and compartmentalize his other difficulties, he might finally unleash the sort of production his talent suggests he has, but has yet to display fully.  His 2018 postseason gave Caps fans a look at just what that kind of performance looks like.  If Kuznetsov can perform at or near that level over an entire season, it would go a long way to coming to terms with his other problems and putting them behind him.

Projection: 78 games, 22-55-77, plus-8

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Garnet Hathaway

Garnet Hathaway

“True progress quietly and persistently moves along without notice.”

-- Saint Francis de Sales

Progress is measured in various ways.  In pro team sports it might be how a player makes developmental progress through a team system, or it might be, in the case of hockey, how goal or point totals might increase over time.  For winger Garnet Hathaway, signed by the Washington Capitals this summer to a four-year/$6 million contract, progress might be described in games played.  

Undrafted as an amateur, Hathaway finished a four-year tour with Brown University in the NCAA before signing as a free agent with the Abbotsford  Heat, the AHL affiliate of the Calgary Flames, in March 2014.  Thirteen months later, he signed a two-year contract with the parent Calgary Flames.  After a pair of one-year extensions as a restricted free agent with the Flames, he reached unrestricted free agency status and signed with the Caps at almost double the salary ($1.5 million) as he earned in his last deal with the Flames ($850,000). 

In his four years with the Flames, Hathaway’s games played rocketed upward.  Fourteen games in his first year, 26 in his sophomore season, 59 games in 2017-2018, followed by 76 games last season.  His offensive production improved commensurately, from 0-3-3 in 14 games in his first season to 11-8-19 last season.  Last season, his ice time was an indicator of team success, too.  This is not unusual for bottom six forwards, who might be expected to get more time in games in which his team is successful, not having to put more ice time burden on point producers in games in which they trail.  Nevertheless, Calgary was 11-1-0 in games in which Hathaway skated at least 13:30 (he averaged 10:32 per game for the season); 4-5-0 in games in which he skated less than seven minutes.

Odd Hathaway Fact…

Calgary was 14-8-2 in 24 games in which Hathaway did not record a shot on goal, 22-9-4 in games in which he recorded one shot, and 11-5-1 in the 17 games in which he recorded multiple shots.  Those are points percentages of .625, .686, and .676, respectively.  Shots seemed not to be a function that contributed much to team results.

Bonus Odd Hathaway Fact…

Garnet Hathaway was the only player in the league last season to skate fewer than 1,000 minutes and record five or more game-winning goals.  He had five in 800 minutes of ice time.

Fearless’ Take…

Hathaway was a persnickety shooter last season (77 shots on goal in 76 games), but he was an efficient one, ranking fifth among Flames’ forwards in shooting percentage (14.3 percent; minimum: 25 games).  While the shooting frequency did not increase above his career numbers (101 shots in 99 games prior to last season), his shooting percentage was almost three times better than the previous season (5.9 percent).

He also found himself in the regular rotation of Calgary penalty killers, ranking fourth among forwards in shorthanded ice time per game (1:42).  His ice time did have a somewhat odd component to it, though.  He was tied for shortest shift times among Calgary forwards, with Mark Janikowski (0:41; minimum: 50 shifts).

Cheerless’ Take…

Of 13 Calgary forwards dressing for more than 25 games last season, Hathaway had the only personal shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 percentage under 50 percent (49.51).  That number was especially poor, compared to forward teammates, in close game situations (47.15 percent, worst in that group of forwards and more than three points worse than James Neal).  He occupies an unremarkable niche in the league.  Over the last four seasons, 13 forwards played in all of them, appeared in 150-200 games and recorded 30-50 points.  It is populated by players such as Matt Read, Derek Grant, Jujhar Khaira, and Curtis Lazar.  The Caps saw something in this player, as a free agent, to offer him a four year deal, twice as long as any of his previous contracts (his entry level deal was for two years).  The Caps were fond of such term this off-season (the same term on contracts for Carl Hagelin and Richard Panik, so at least there is some consistency there.

Potential Milestones:

• 200 career NHL games (175; he needs 25)

The Big Question… Does Garnet Hathaway have a way to stand out in the bottom-six scheme of things?

Out… Brett Connolly, Andre Burakovsky, Devante Smith-Pelly.  In… Richard Panik, Brendan Leipsic, Garnet Hathaway.  The three departed forwards combined for 38 goals last season, 34 in 2017-2018 when the Caps won the Stanley Cup.  The incoming trio combined for 30 goals last season, 17 the year before.  It would be a stretch to think that the incoming trio, even if all of them make the squad and get full-time work, would match the offensive production of the outgoing group, but the team did make an effort to improve the defensive performance of that group and provided visuals of how that might be accomplished by the newcomers.

Hathaway is, in a way, the most intriguing member of the threesome, if for no other reason than his rapid rise in games played and offensive production over his four NHL seasons.  He merits some comparison to Brett Connolly.  Hathaway does not have Connolly’s draft or prospect pedigree, but his early career performance (16-24-40 in 175 games)  is not a lot different from Connolly in his first four seasons (18-16-34 in 139 games).  After scoring nine goals in 71 games with Boston in his fifth NHL season, Connolly found a scoring touch in Washington with 52 goals in 217 games over three seasons.  Hathaway had a career high of 11 goals last season in Calgary, almost tripling his total of the previous year (four).  That was entirely a product of an increase in shooting efficiency (14.3 percent versus 5.9 percent the previous year), but Connolly found his stride in this area in Washington, too (18.1 percent over three seasons versus 9.2 percent over his first five seasons).  If Hathaway continues his early career improvement, he could stand out among the newcomers.

In the end…

Clearly, the Caps saw something the casual fan might not have seen in Garnet Hathaway to enlist him with a four-year contract.  If he continues to improve at something like or even near the pace with which he improved over his first four seasons, he will look like a bargain.  If last season in Calgary was a plateau, then his getting a sweater on a regular basis might be in question.  He will be right in the middle of perhaps the most competitive aspect of training camp, in the odd position of competing among two other players who are newcomers to the club.  It will make for one of the more interesting aspects of training camp, and even the early season, to watch for Caps fans.

Projection: 58 games, 9-12-21, even

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Carl Hagelin

Carl Hagelin

“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.”

-- Albert Einstein

In a space of 1,335 days – less than four years – Carl Hagelin was traded from the New York Rangers to the Anaheim Ducks, then to the Pittsburgh Penguins, then to the Los Angeles Kings, and finally last February to the Washington Capitals.  For those of you playing at home, that’s more than 10,000 miles in moving services.  Nothing would prevent the Capitals from shipping Hagelin elsewhere at some point, but he did sign a four-year/$11.0 million deal with the club in June that would keep him in DC through the 2022-2023 season.

Hagelin had a very productive run of games for the Caps, albeit a small population (20 games).  His 0.15 goals per game, 0.40 assists per game, and 0.55 points per game were his best for any club since he was 0.27-0.46-0.73 per game with the Penguins in 2015-2016.  True, the totals were only 3-8-11 in those 20 games, but all 11 points came in his last 16 games after going his first four games as a Capital without a point.  As one might expect, his scoring contributions went hand in hand with team success.  The Caps were 8-0-1 in the nine games in which he recorded a point (6-5-0 when he did not).

On the other side of the ledger, Hagelin was on ice for the fourth-fewest even strength goals per game among the 15 Caps forwards dressing for at least 20 games (0.40).  And, over the 20 games in which he played, he averaged more penalty killing ice time per game (2:21) than did any other Capital forward.  It might not be mere coincidence that the Caps finished the last 21 games of the season (Hagelin was out for a 2-1 loss to the Minnesota Wild on March 22^nd) tied for the third-best record in the league (14-6-1), one standings point behind Tampa Bay and St. Louis. 

Odd Hagelin Fact…

Carl Hagelin made his first postseason appearance with the New York Rangers in 2012.  Since then, no skater in the league has appeared in more playoff games (128).

Bonus Odd Hagelin Fact…

In 546 career NHL games, Carl Hagelin has never recorded a power play assist.  He is one of 18 forwards in NHL history to have played at least 500 games and failed to record a power play assist.

Fearless’ Take…

The Capitals have not lacked for offensive skill in the post-2005-2006 era, but from time to time their forward defense has been thin or inconsistent.  Carl Hagelin provided the strong own-end play in the last quarter of last season to allow the Caps to win games when their offense was sluggish.  In the last 21 games, the Caps held opponents to two or fewer goals 12 times, going 11-1-0 in those contests.  They held opponents to fewer than 30 shots 12 times in that span and went 9-2-1.  His personal shot attempts-for percentage on ice at 5-on-5 (57.49 percent) was third best among forwards in the last 21 games, surpassed only by frequent linemates in that span, Lars Eller (59.53 percent) and Brett Connolly (58.82 percent).

Cheerless’ Take…

Even with Hagelin being a newcomer, the old bugaboo of production drying up among the bottom six forwards in the postseason did not pass him by.  In the seven-game opening round loss to Carolina, he had one point, an assist in Game 7 that the Caps lost in double-overtime.  More troublesome, that personal shot attempts-for on ice at 5-on-5 percentage, which was so impressive down the stretch, was second-worst among forwards in the opening round loss (32.89 percent) and worst among the nine forwards playing in all seven games.

Potential Milestones:

• 600 career NHL games (546, he needs 54)
• 100 games as a Capital (20, he needs 80)
• 100 career goals (93, he needs seven)

The Big Question… Can Carl Hagelin replace enough of the offense lost in the offseason?

Carl Hagelin is not known as a prolific scorer or playmaker, although his per-82 game scoring totals are respectable for a bottom-six forward (14-22-36, plus-14).  The problem for Hagelin at that end of the ice has been that his recent production lags in comparison with those career per-82 game numbers, and his games played have dropped some, in part owing to missing 20 games last season to a sprained knee ligament and a lower body injury late in the 2016-2017 season that cost him the last 16 regular season games on the schedule. 

The key for Hagelin, though, is not necessarily in his ability to replace the raw scoring numbers of, say, a Brett Connolly.  That is highly unlikely to happen (his best goal-scoring season was 2013-2015 and 2014-2015 when he had 17 goals in each season; he has not had more than 14 in a season since).  It will be the net effect of his ability to score at one end and to help prevent scoring at the other, especially killing penalties on a club that finished 24^th in the league with Hagelin playing a quarter of the Capitals’ schedule.

In the end…

Carl Hagelin signed a four-year contract with the Anaheim Ducks in August 2015 but ended up playing for three more teams before that deal expired at the end of last season (Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and the Caps).  But Hagelin provides things that a team like the Caps in “win now” mode can find valuable.  He has all of that playoff experience, not to mention two Stanley Cups (with Pittsburgh in 2016 and 2017).  He is a dependable defender who brings a speed dimension to the ice.  And the pay cut he took in the new deal with the Capitals (his just-expired deal paid $4.0 million per year compared to the $2.75 million per year in the new deal) might be considered inexpensive compared to some of his salary comparables among forwards (Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel at $3.0 million; Ryan Reaves at 2.775 million; Joel Armia at $2.6 million).

In the perfect world, Hagelin is the sort of veteran who provides a reliable level of production and performance at both ends of the ice without drama or controversy, and one who will contribute a lot of experience in big games.  He will be the type of whom it might be said, give him a sweater and let him provide solid, consistent, if unspectacular two-way play.  He has had to keep moving on a city to city basis over the last three or four seasons.  This season, his moving will likely be limited to the confines of the rink.

Projection: 74 games, 12-15-27, plus-5

Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images