Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 8

The Washington Capitals spent Week 8 marching up the east coast in the middle of their five-game road trip.  On balance, it was a decent week, win-loss wise, but it ended with a bad taste in their mouths, courtesy of the Boston Bruins, a taste that might have been rancid New England clam chowder.

Record: 2-1-0

Washington wrapped up their two-game visit to New Jersey with a 3-2 win to open the week.  It would be harsh to say that things deteriorated from there, especially in closing the week with a pair against a strong Boston Bruins club.  Nevertheless, the Caps slipped a bit as the week wore on, earning a win in a hard-fought contest over the Bruins that was decided in the Gimmick, 2-1, and then dropping an ugly 5-1 decision to the B’s in the rematch on Friday. Their largest loss margin in any game this season.  At week’s end, though, the Caps had a 6-3-2 road record overall, the second-best road record in the East to Boston’s 7-4-2.

Offense: 1.67/game (season: 3.22 / 9th)

The adjective “anemic” when applied to a low-scoring offense can be overdone, but in Week 8 it fit the Caps.  The Caps posted only five goals in three games, three of those in their first game of the week.  Four Caps shared in the five goals, Jakub Vrana the only Cap with two. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Lars Eller had the other goals. 

Nine Capitals posted points in Week 8, Vrana leading in this category as well (three).  Four other Caps had a pair of points.  The most noteworthy of that quarter was Nicklas Backstrom, who recorded an assist with his goal for the week, his assist on Vrana’s goal against Boston on Friday being the 700^th of his career.  Backstrom is the 54^th player in NHL history to record 700 or more assists, but he is one of only three active players to have reached that milestone (Joe Thornton: 1,097; Sidney Crosby: 813).

It is worth noting here that the Caps got little contribution from the defense in the offensive end.  No Caps defenseman recorded a goal, and the six defensemen who dressed for the week combined for three points (all assists, two by Nick Jensen and one by Brenden Dillon).  As a team, the Caps’ efficiency was off, their 6.0 shooting percentage ranking 25^th for the week. 

Defense: 2.67/game (season: 3.17 / 23rd)

It was not shots allowed that was a problem this week.  Washington allowed only 65 shots in 185 minutes of hockey, an average of 21.1 shots per 60 minutes of play.  What is more, the stinginess in allowing shots was consistent.  The defense allowed fewer than ten shots in seven of nine regulation periods of hockey for the week (twice fewer than five shots) and allowed exactly ten in the other two.  The first two games of the week, in which the Caps allowed 21 and 19 shots, respectively, are the two lowest shots allowed totals in 23 games so far this season.

Playing stingy with opponents kept the Caps competitive for the week.  They allowed only 107 shot attempts at 5-on-5, the third fewest in the league in Week 8.  However, the Caps still found themselves on the minus side of shot attempts in two of the three games because the offense mustered only 103 shot attempts at fives, the fewest in the league for the week.

A noteworthy item here is that the Caps allowed eight goals at 5-on-5.  Big names were out there for a lot of them.  Alex Ovechkin was on ice for six of the eight goals allowed at fives.  John Carlson was out there for four, Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie for three apiece.  And it was not as if they made it up at the other end.  Ovechkin was on ice for one 5-on-5 goal, Carlson for two, Oshie for two, and Kunzetsov for none.

Goaltending: 2.60 / .877 (season: 2.88 / .900)

The goalies are hanging onto their combined .900 save percentage by a thread, but it was still a less than expected (or needed) week.  This was one of the rare weeks for the Caps in which the goaltending duties were almost evenly split, Vitek Vanecek getting 100 minutes and Ilya Sansonov getting 84 minutes.  How that came to be was not in the plan, though.

Given his absences this season, Samsonov was sharp in his lone start for the week, stopping 19 of 21 shots in the 3-2 win over new Jersey to start the week.  Vitek Vanecek one-upped him in his first start of the week, stopping 18 of 19 shots in regulation and overtime, and then turning away all three shot he faced in the freestyle competition in the Caps’ 2-1 Gimmick win over Boston in the middle game of the week.

And then the wheels came off the victory wagon.  Boston lit up Vanecek for four goals on 18 shots in 35:43 of work before Vanecek was relieved in favor of Samsonov in the rematch with Boston.  Samsonov allowed one goal on seven shots in 24:15 of ice time in the 5-1 loss to the Bruins.  The result, even with the five goals allowed in Friday’s game, was a reasonable goals against average for the goalie pair (2.60), but a save percentage that left much to be desired (.877).

Power Play: 0-for-8 / 0.0 percent (season: percent 26.7 / 5th)

It was an ugly week for the man advantage.  It was the first week this season that the Caps went 0-for-the week.  It was the first time the Caps had that many chances over a week without converting any of them since Week 12 last season, when they also went 0-for-8.

Was it bad luck?  Perhaps.  The Caps got shots from the players they expect to be productive.  Alex Ovechkin led the club with five power play shots. John Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom each had a pair.  Four other Caps had one apiece for a total of 13 shots on goal.  Eight of those 13 shots came in the last game of the week, the 5-1 loss to the Bruins.  The 13 shots came in 12:57 of power play ice time, so getting shots was not much of an issue. 

But who did not get shots mattered, too.  Tom Wilson had none in 4:25 of total power play ice time.  Evgeny Kuznetsov had none in 2:30 of ice time with the man advantage.  Lars Eller had none in 2:37 of power play ice time.  When you add in Oshie with one shot in 10:03 of power play ice time, it would appear the Caps were not getting – or not generating – chances from in close on power plays.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-7 / 100.0 percent (season: 81.1 percent / 12th)

Penalty killing stood out in a good way for the Caps, who finished the week one of five teams with a perfect penalty kill.  They held their three opponents to a total of six power play shots (none for Boston in their first meeting in Week 8) over 12;37 of shorthanded ice time.  It was the third week in the last five that the Caps killed off all their shorthanded situations for the week.  The issue, though, has been consistency.  In the other two weeks, the Caps went 9-for-12 in each (75.0 percent). 

What the Caps did in Week 8 on the penalty kill was share the burden.  Of the 12:37 in penalty kill ice time, nine Caps skated at least two minutes, four defensemen (Zdeno Chara, Nick Jenseh, John Carlson, and Brenden Dillon) and five forwards (Carl Hagelin, Nic Dowd, Lars Eller, Garnet Hathaway, and Tom Wilson).  Fourteen Caps in all had shorthanded ice time on their logs, but some of that was likely a product of transitioning from shorthanded to even-strength.

Faceoffs: 91-for-168 / 54.2 percent (season: 48.5 percent / 22nd)

Is it the “Pecaffect?”  Is recently named assistant Michael Peca having an effect in this phase of the Caps’ game?   They have work to do, but since Peca was hired to the Caps’ coaching staff on February 10^th, the Caps have won 50.4 percent of their faceoffs, 12^th in the league over that span.  Compare that to the 27^th-ranked 46.7 percent they posted before Peca was brought on board.

In Week 8 the Caps won 54.2 percent of their draws, fourth-best in the league for the week.  Nic Dowd dominated in all three zones for the Caps, winning 69 percent or more in each zone (more than 70 percent in the ends).  Nicklas Backstrom’s offensive draws look bad (37.5 percent wins) but that was 3-for-8, just one faceoff win under 50 percent.  Backstrom had a fine week in the defensive end, winning 12 of 18 draws (66.7 percent).

Goals by Period:

It was a low scoring week overall, and the Caps found themselves on the wrong side of small margins in the first and second periods of games.  Second periods returned as a problem area, the Caps allowing half of their goals allowed for the week in the middle frame.  Three of those second period goals came in a span of eight minutes in the Friday loss to Boston, turning a competitive 1-0 Bruins lead into a 4-0 rout after 40 minutes.  It made even the meager third period production – two goals for the week – a bit less meaningful, Jakub Vrana getting what amounted to a window-dressing goal in the 5-1 loss.  There was the Lars Eller third period goal, though, that allowed the Caps to tie Boston in their first meeting in Week 8 and force extra time in their 2-1 trick shot win.

Year-over-Year:

The Caps continue to lag relative to last year’s club, and it is just enough to spell the difference between having the league’s best record at the 23-game mark last season and resting in second place in the East Division (tenth in the league) after 23 games this season.  The power play is one of the few areas in which this year’s club is outpacing last year’s at similar points of the season, but this year’s club also has almost 20 percent fewer power play chances than last year’s at the 23-game mark.  In the “grittership” area, it is worth noting that an increase in credited hits this season has not been matched with an increase in penalty minutes.  Quite the opposite; while this year’s Caps are up 6.3 percent in hits, they are down 11.7 percent in penalties taken and down 15.5 percent in penalty minutes.

In the end…

By this point of the season, what is evident is that when the Caps are good, they are quite good, and they have the ability to shut down opponents.  On the other hand, when they are bad, they can be quite bad (four of their six regulation losses have been by three or more goals).  As the Caps approach the half-way point of this abbreviated season, their first priority is going to be finding more consistency of performance that will enable them to peel off wins in succession.  In a division as tough as the East, that will be a tall oder.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2, plus-2, posted 700^th career assist, five shots on goal, won 52.8 percent of faceoffs, on ice for only one even strength goal against in three games)
• Second Star: Jakub Vrana (2-1-3, plus-2, seven shots on goal, scored game-deciding goal in the Gimmick in 2-1 win over Boston)
• Third Star: Nick Jensen (0-2-2, even, 17:18 average ice time, on ice for two goals against at even strength and had an “even” even strength goal differential)

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 24: Capitals at Flyers, March 7

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their five-game road trip with a visit to CoreStates/First Union/Wachovia/Wells Fargo/(insert name of large corporate financial institution here) Center in Philadelphia to face the Flyers in a 7:00 pm Sunday night start.  The Caps had a six-game points streak (5-0-1) broken on Friday night in Boston against the Bruins, while the Flyers went into their Saturday afternoon game against the Pittsburgh Penguins as winners of four in five games.

The Flyers head into this contest as one of the more formidable offensive teams in the league.  Their 3.35 goals per game rank fourth in the league and first in the East Division.  That offense is led by James van Riemsdyk, who is having a renaissance in his second career tour as a Flyer.  Van Riemsdyk was taken by the Flyers as the second overall pick of the 2007 Entry Draft, right after the Chicago Blackhawks took Patrick Kane with the top overall pick.  In three seasons with the Flyers, ending in 2011-2012, van Riemsdyk was a productive, if not elite offensive player, posting a scoring line of 47-52-99, plus-13, in 196 games.  But in the third of those three seasons he was just 11-13-24, minus-1, in 43 games, his losing chunks of the season to lower and upper body injuries, a concussion, and a foot injury.  He was traded to Toronto in June 2012 for defenseman Luke Schenn.

In six years as a Maple Leaf, van Riemsdyk found his goal scoring touch, posting 154 goals in 413 games and recording 30 or more goals twice, including 36 in his “walk year” in 2017-2018, a career high.  After that season he signed a five-year/$35 million contract on July 1, 2018 to return to the Flyers.  Van Riemsdyk was not quite the goal scorer in the first two years of his return to Philadelphia that he was in Toronto – 46 goals in 132 games – but this season he is tied for the team lead in goals (10) in 20 games to date.  Van Riemsdyk is 10-12-22, minus-7, in 35 career games against Washington.

There is one player in the league with a plus-minus of plus-9 or better and who has one or fewer points.  That would be the Flyers’ Justin Braun.  The defenseman is 0-1-1, plus-9, in 17 games this season.  The odd part of those statistics is the Braun was barely noticeable on the score sheet over his first dozen games, going 0-0-0, plus-1.  But starting with the Flyers’ 7-4 win in Washington over the Caps on February, 7^th, he is 0-1-1, plus-8, in five games.

Braun is no youngster.  The 34-year old was taken in the seventh round of the 2007 Entry Draft by San Jose, but despite his being taken with the 201^st overall pick, he is tied for 16^th in his draft class in NHL games played (686, pending Saturday’s results, with ex-Capital Karl Alzner).  He has never been much of a producer in the offensive end, never posting more than five goals in a season (2017-2018 with the Sharks) and only once topping 30 points (33 in the same season).  Since 2011-2012, when he played full time for the Sharks, through last season Braun is one of three defensemen in the league to have posted nine consecutive seasons of playing at least 40 games, scoring five or fewer goals, and posting 35 or fewer points (Ron Hainsey and Roman Polak are the others).  But despite his lack of offensive production, Braun averaged almost 20 minutes per game over those nine seasons (19:47).  In 17 career games against Washington, he is 0-4-4, plus-4.

Well, is he or isn’t he?  Franchise goalie, that is.  Carter Hart is, for better or worse, who the Flyers have pinned their hopes on to keep their net clean of puck this season and, they hope, deep into the playoffs.  The only problem with that is that Hart has been wildly inconsistent.  In 13 appearances this season, he has four games with a save percentage over .935, and in four games he has a save percentage under .820.  Only twice in those 13 games has he posted a save percentage over .900, and not at all over his last six games, over which he is 2-2-2, 3.66, .885.  But in a bow to his inconsistency, he recorded his only shutout this season in that six-game stretch, stopping all 28 shots he faced in a 3-0 win in Buffalo over the Sabres on February 28^th.  Has his problem been Hart trouble or something larger?  It is not an easy question to answer?  What seems evident, at least from this analysis, is that Hart has not come up with the big save when the team needs it. Or put another way, as The Atlantic puts it, “Top-tier goalies are expected to make top-tier saves.” Hart is 2-1-1, 2.71, .911 in four career games against the Capitals.

1.  The Flyers have not lost consecutive games in regulation this season.  In three instances in which they lost consecutive games, one of them went to extra time, enabling the Flyers to squeeze out a standings point.

2.  Only Arizona has recorded fewer shots per game (26.3) than Philadelphia (27.3), while at the other end, only four teams have allowed more shots on goal per game than the Flyers (31.7).  Their shots on goal differential (minus-4.0 per game) is second-worst in the league (Arizona: minus-4.3).

3.  Philadelphia has played five extra time games this season.  They have yet to allow a goal at 3-on-3 (one of seven teams not yet doing so).  Two of the five games were scoreless in overtime (the Flyers lost both in Gimmicks), they won twice in overtime, and they lost once in the five-minute extra session on a power play goal in a 4-3 loss to Boston on February 3^rd.

4.  Leading at an intermission matters to the Flyers.  They are 7-0-1 when leading after one period, 7-0-1 when leading after two periods.

5.  Only two teams in the league have a worse net penalty kill, accounting for shorthanded goals scored while killing penalties, than Philadelphia (73.2 percent) – Detroit (66.7 percent) and Florida (62.5 percent).

1.  Washington has the second-worst power play on the road this season (9.7 percent); only Minnesota is worse (8.9 percent).

2.  Only two teams have allowed fewer shots per game on the road than the Caps (27.2) – the New York Islanders (26.2) and the Colorado Avalanche (25.6).

3.  The Caps have done a decent job getting started early in road games (12 goals for/9 goals against in first periods), less so finishing (9 goals for/10 goals against in third periods).

4.  Washington is third in the league in credited hits per 60 minutes in road games (27.53), trailing only Tampa Bay (27.74) and Montreal (28.23).

5.  Forty minutes tell the tale for the Caps on the road so far.  They are 5-0-0 when leading after two periods in road games, 0-3-0 when trailing.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Joel Farabee

It could not have happened at worse time.  Okay, it could have, like on the first day of the playoffs, but when Joel Farabee was placed on the COVID protocol list on Thursday, he was tied for the team lead in goals (ten), was second in points (19), was third in plus-minus (plus-8), was one of two Flyers playing in ten or more games and averaging a point per game or more (james van Riemsdyk was the other), ranked fifth among forwards in credited hits (17), was tied among all Flyer forwards in takeaways (ten, with Nicolas Aube-Kubel), and was tied for the team lead in shots (50, with Kevin Hayes).  That Farabee would be this productive was not entirely unexpected; he was the 14^th overall pick of the 2018 draft, fourth in his draft class in career goals (18),sixth in points (40), and sixth in games played (71).

What is surprising is the level of improvement from last year’s rookie season to this.  Last year, Farabee was 8-13-21, plus-6, in 52 games.  This season, he already passed last year’s goal total (he has ten), his 19 points are within two of last year’s total (21), he already has three power play goals (one last season), had more than doubled his shooting efficiency (from 9.9 to 20.0 percent). What is more, he was on quite a run.  He started the season with  four-point Opening Night (1-3-4 in a 6-3 win over Pittsburgh), but then he went 1-0-1, minus-3 over his next eight games.  Ove his last ten games, though, he was 8-6-14, plus-9, including four multi-point games.  Two of those games were his last two outings before being place on the COVID protocol list.  Farabee was 0-3-3, plus-3, in three career games against the Caps.

Washington: Brenden Dillon

We are quite sure Caps defenseman Brenden Dillion is a swell fellow.  What he has not been so far this season is a good house guest, at least insofar as visiting opponents’ arenas are is concerned.  Dillion has 25 penalty minutes in ten road games this season, almost twice as many as the next Capital on the list (Tom Wilson with 14).  It is an odd profile, though.  While Dillon has taken eight penalties (four minors and four majors), a team high in road games, he has drawn three penalties, also a team high in road games.  Dillon is one of four players in the league to have played in at least ten road games, taken more than two penalties per 60 minutes (2.40), and drawn more than one penalty per 60 minutes (1.20); Trent Frederic, Jordan Greenway, and Blake Coleman are the others. Odder still, all 25 penalty minutes recorded by Dillon overall have been on the road.  He has no penalty minutes at home.

His physical play is not necessarily a plus, although big numbers in those areas are signals that the Caps are chasing – not possessing – the puck.  For example, in eight games overall in which Dillon recorded three or more hits, the Caps are 3-3-2.  At the other end, Dillon recorded his first and only goal as a Capital on Opening Night in Buffalo.  He is without one in nine road games since on nine shots (he has one shot on goal in eight of ten road games).  However, he does have points in two of his last four road games (0-2-2) and has seven assists in 23 games overall, a respectable 25-assist pace over a full 82-game season.  Dillon is 0-4-4, plus-5, in 16 career games against the Flyers.

In the end…

The Caps were mauled in their 5-1 loss to Boston on Friday, costing them the top spot in the East Division, now held by the New York Islanders by tie-breaker.  They were outscored, 4-1, after Brendan Carlo went down after a Tom Wilson hit late in the first period (as of this writing, Wilson has been offered and in-person meeting via Zoom with the Department of Player Safety).  Wilson had a monster game in the Caps’ only meeting with the Flyers to date this season (he was 1-3-4 in the Caps’ 7-4 loss to Philadelphia on February 7^th), but he is otherwise 5-5-10 in 29 career games against the Flyers.  It is, however, an opportunity for others to step up in the event he is excused from participation on Sunday.  And stepping up is something the Caps need to do as a group against this team, one that is only three points behind the Caps with three points in hand, pending their game against the Penguins on Saturday afternoon.  Things can change quickly in the East Division these days, and the Caps have to guard against things changing for the worse.

Capitals 5 – Flyers 3

 

 

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 22: Capitals 2 - Bruins 1 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals headed to Boston on Wednesday, and not for a steaming hot bowl of chowder.  They visited the Bruins in the front end of a two-game set at TD Garden.  It marked Zdeno Chara’s first visit to his old haunts since he left the Bruins to sign with the Caps for this season.  It would be a happy return for Chara and a happy opening of the two-game set for the Caps, who ground out a 2-1 win in the Gimmick to tighten their hold on first place in the East Division.

First period

Washington had the first power play of the contest when Charlie McAvoy was sent off for interference at the 2:23 mark.  The Caps did not convert the power play chance, but they did control play over the first half of the period.  With just under 11 minutes gone in the period, it looked as if the Caps had taken the first lead, T.J. Oshie converting a cross-crease pass from Richard Panik.  However, video “review” determined the play was “offside” because Oshie entered the offensive zone ahead of the puck that Panik had flipped high in the air into the offensive zone.  The game remained 0-0. 

Washington had their second bite at the power play apple 14:19 into the period when David Krejci was sent off for tripping.  Alex Ovechkin was then sent to the penalty box for interference at 14:56.  He appeared to injure his knee in the process, although he went to the penalty box, not the locker room.  At the time, a good sign.

Richard Panik took the Caps’ first penalty of the game, going off for interference with just 11 seconds left in the period.  However, the teams, despite infrequent episodes of drama, ended the fist period scoreless.

-- Boston did not record their first shot attempt until the 5:46 mark (David Pastrnak, a miss off the goalpost that hit goalie Vitek Vanecek in the back after the first carom, then hit the same post again).  By that time, the Caps had nine attempts, five on goal.  The Bruins recorded their first shot on goal in the period at the 15:28 mark.

-- Washington out-shot the Bruins, 7-2, and out-attempted them, 13-9.

-- Lars Eller was the only Capital with two shots; Alex Ovechkin led in attempts (four).

-- Washington enjoyed a 14-9 edge in faceoff wins.  Evgen Kuznetsov waa 4-for-4, and Nicklas Backstrom was 4-for-6, including going 3-for-3 against Patrice Bergeron, one of the best in the league in faceoffs.

Second Period

The Caps killed of the remaining 1:49 of shorthanded ice time that spilled into the second period, and the game remained scoreless.  And it remained scoreless until the horn sounded to end the period, the teams still 0-0 after 40 minutes.

-- The Bruins out-shot the Caps, 7-4, in the middle frame and out-attempted them, 19-13.

-- Through 40 minutes, Alex Ovechkin had five missed shots and five hits.

-- Through 40 minutes, Nicklas Backstrom had five faceoff wins, and Evgeny Kuznetsov had five faceoff wins (Nic Dowd had six to lead the team).

-- Richard Panik had no shot attempts through two periods.  This is not a big surprise.  Jakub Vrana had no shot attempts through two periods.  This is a surprise.

Third Period

Boston finally broke the scoreless game, David Pastrnak getting the B’s on the board at the 1:19 mark.  Brad Marchand fished the puck out of John Carlson’s skates just inside the Boston blue line, then took off down the left wing, Pastrnak filling in on the right to make it a 2-on-1 rush with Brenden Dillon back.  Marchand skated the puck into the left wing circle before snapping a pass to Pastrnak, who one-timed it past goalie Vitek Vanecek to get the game’s first goal.

Washington tied it five minutes later.  T.J. Oshie intercepted an attempted clearing pass and fed Nick Jensen in the right-wing circle.  Jensen fired, but goalie Tuukka Rask made the stop with his blocker.  The rebound pinballed to his left, and Lars Eller finally found it and swept it behind Rask at the 6:14 mark to make it a 1-1 game.

The teams battled back and forth, and both were whistled for penalties at the 14:30 mark – Alex Ovechkin for roughing (a polite way of putting it given where Frederic was “roughed”), Trent Frederic for cross-checking.

The teams worked their way through the coincidental penalties without suffering any damage on the scoreboard, and the game went to overtime, still tied at 1-1.

Overtime

The Caps won the shots battle, 5-1, but neither team scored, so it was on to the freestyle competition.

The Gimmick

• BOS/DeBrusk – save
• WAS/Vrana – GOAL! 
• BOS/Pastrnak – save
• WAS/Oshie – save
• BOS/Marchand – save

…CAPS WIN!

Other stuff…

-- With his Gimmick Game Winner, Jakub Vrana is now 3-for-6 shooting in the freestyle phase, one of eight Caps shooting 50 percent or better in his career with the Caps (and no, T.J. Oshie is not in that group).  Then again, three of the members of that group were 1-for-1 in their careers with the Caps in this phase (Brooks Orpik, Bryan Muir, and Petr Sykora).

-- Alex Ovechkin was all over the score sheet, just not in ways you might expect…no points, but two minor penalties, five shots on goal (led team(, 16 shot attempts (led team, and that is not a typo), six credited hits (led team).

-- The Caps out-shot the Bruins, 28-19, and out-attempted them, 55-43.

-- Nic Dowd won nine of 12 faceoffs, most wins and best winning percentage for the Caps.

-- John Carlson led the team in ice time (gosh, you don’t say!) with 27:01, while at the other end was Garnet Hathaway with 8:10.

-- Hathaway and Richard Panik finished the game with no shot attempts.

-- The Caps had almost as many players with credited hits (13) as the had with shots on goal (14).

-- Nick Jensen had a quietly nice game – an assist, two shots on goal, two hits, three blocked shots (led team) in 17:13.

-- This was the fifth time in their last seven road games that the Caps held their opponent to two or fewer goals, this after allowing 12 goals in their first three road games this season.

-- Vitek Vanecek improved his record to 5-1-1, 1.84, .928, and has allowed three goals in regulation once in those seven games.

In the end…

Tough win. Grind it out win.  Good win.  Boston is a hard team to play against, because they are capable of doing a lot of things very well.  To hold their offense in check and not wilt when they had a goal of their own overturned were the kind of character-building things, if you subscribe to such things, that the Caps can build on.  And they get a chance to do that against this same team on Friday, one that will be in an ornery mood, no doubt.

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 22/23: Capitals at Bruins, March 3/5

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head to New England for games on Wednesday and Friday against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden. The Caps face the Bruins on a five-game points streak (4-0-1), while the Bruins go into the two-game set with a 2-4-0 record over their last six games that dropped them into second place in the East Division behind the Capitals.

He leads the team in most offensive categories: goals (10), assists (13), points (23), plus-minus (plus-8), even strength points (14).  And, if there was a post-season award for “most offensive player,” he would win in a walk.  Nevertheless, as he approaches his 33^rd birthday, Brad Marchand is arguably the most valuable Bruin.  Marchand, whose ability to get under the skin of opponents without much consequence (or at least as much as opponents and their fans believe he deserves) is perhaps unmatched in the NHL (he is tied with three teammates for seventh in penalty minutes with ten), is a very prolific contributor on offense.  He has more than 20 goals in each of his nine full seasons in Boston (he had 18 in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season and none in 20 games of his rookie season).  He has a 100-point season on his resume (exactly that number in 2018-2019) and three other seasons of at least 85 points. 

Since he took on a full-time role with Boston in 2010-2011, Marchand leads all Bruins in goals (300), is second in assists (368; David Krejci has 382), leads in points (668), has the best plus-minus (plus-232), leads the team in penalty minutes (746), leads in even strength points (481), has the most overtime goals (16), and leads the club in game-winning goals (57).  Marchand comes into the two-game set with the Caps in a shooting slump in that he has only six shots on goal in his last five games, half of those in a 6-2 loss to the New York Rangers on February 26^th.  He has points in 15 of 19 games this season, but three of the four games without a point have come in his last seven games (2-5-7, plus-1, overall).  Marchand is 10-13-23, minus-7 (worst plus-minus against any opponent), in 34 games against the Caps.

Boston is, at least this season, a team that lets the forwards do the heavy lifting for goal scoring.  Ten defensemen have dressed for Boston this season, and nine of them have points and have combined for 32 assists).  But only two of those ten have goals – Charlie McAvoy (tree) and Brandon Carlo (two).  McAvoy is growing into the number one defenseman role for the Bruins, but Carlo is an interesting subject in his own right.  Now in his fifth NHL season, he has not demonstrated the ability to be a difference maker in the offensive end of the ice; his career high in points is 19 (in 67 games last season).  This season he is on a pace to pass his career high in goals (six in his rookie season), but he is doing it with shooting that might not be sustainable.  His shots on goal are down (over 1.60 per game in the previous two seasons to 1.37 per game this season), but his efficiency is up – 7.7 percent, almost a full percentage point better than his career high (6.8 percent in his rookie year) and more than twice that of his career shooting percentage (3.4 percent).  He does seem to have hit a wall lighting the lamp.  Carlo is without a point in ten straight games (0-0-0, minus-3).  He is 1-1-2, minus-3, in 14 career games against Washington.

What Boston has not had so far this season is the top-notch goaltending they are used to getting.  Tuukka Rask has a fine win-loss record (8-3-1 in 12 games), but his 2.71 goals against average is far higher than the league-leading 2.12 he posted last year, and his .896 save percentage is his worst since his first NHL season (.886 in four games).  Jaroslav Halak has a slightly worse win loss record (4-2-1 in seven games), but his other numbers are better than Rask’s (2.42 GAA, .903 SV). Neither goalie has impressed consistently in net. Halak is a study in staying power.  Only two goalies were taken later than Halak in the 2003 entry draft, when he was selected in the ninth round (271^st overall) by the Montreal Canadiens (Kevin Regan by Boston, who never played in the NHL, and Brian Elliott by Ottawa, who has carved out quite an NHL career of his own).  Almost 18 years later, Halak ranks 12^th among active goalies in games played (527), 12^th in wins (276), and sixth in shutouts (51) despite long stretches as a backup goalie.  Now in his third year with Boston, he has put up his career best save percentage among any of the five teams for which he played (.920), except one (.930 in 12 games for the Caps in 2013-2014).  He has hit a bump of late, though.  After starting the season 4-0-1, 1.38, ,938, with one shutout, he is 0-2-0, 5.10, .841 in his last two outings.

1.  Boston leads the league in scoring offense on home ice (4.22 goals per game), although the Bruins have played fewer home games (six) than every other team except San Jose (five).

2.  Their ability to score at home is influenced by their power play, also best in the league on home ice (50.0 percent).

3.  The Bruins have not been out-shot on home ice this season.

4.  Boston is one of six teams with a perfect record when scoring first on home ice (4-0-0).

5.  Three of Boston’s five wins on home ice have come by three or more goals.

1.  Washington’s 11.5 percent power play on the road ranks 28^th of 31 teams.

2.  The Caps’ 26 goals scored at 5-on-5 on the road are tied for third-most in the league, with San Jose.

3.  Only four teams have scored fewer third period goals on the road than the Caps (seven) – Winnipeg (six), Arizona (five), Vegas (four), and the New York Rangers (three).  On the other hand, only six teams have allowed fewer third period goals than the eight allowed by the Caps.

4.  Washington is undefeated on the road when leading after two periods (5-0-0).

5.  Nineteen of 22 skaters dressing in road games for the Caps have at least one point. Nineteen have a plus-minus of even or better.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: David Pastrnak

With apologies to Auston Matthews and his fans, David Pastrnak can make a claim to being the heir apparent to Alex Ovechkin as the leagues dominant goal-scorer.  Why?  Consistency.  Pastrnak is one of two players who, over the four seasons preceding this one, posted at least 34 goals per season (yes, Matthews is the other). Matthews and Pastrnak rank second and third, respectively (behind Ovechkin) over that period with 176 and 164 goals, respectively.  Pastrnak’s NHL career has been one of consistent improvement in goal scoring.  He recorded ten in 46 games in his 2014-2015 rookie season and followe that up with seasons of 15, 34, 35, 38, and 48 goals last season when he shared the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy with Ovechkin as the league’s top goal scorer and was name for the first time in his career to the NHL first All-Star Team at right wing.  While his shooting efficiency has not been quite the unbroken path of progress his goal totals have been, it has improved consistently from 10.8 percent in his rookie season to 17.2 percent this season.  And, his shot volumes are starting to approach Ovechkin levels.  This season, his 4.08 shots per game are more than twice that of his rookie season (2.02).  What he has lacked this season is consistency, but he has balanced this with explosiveness.  Although he has nine goals in 12 games, he is without a goal in eight of those 12 games.  However, his has three multi-goal games, including two hat tricks, both against Philadelphia – one in a 4-3 overtime win on February 3^rd, and the other in a 7-3 win on February 21^st.  Pastrnak is 7-9-16, minus-7, in 17 career games against Washington.

Washington: Zdeno Chara

An appropriate question at this point in the season regarding Zdeno Chara as a Capital might be, “how do you like me so far?”  The difficulty in answering this question is that the view might be influenced by the knowledge that Chara already has his Hall of Fame ticket punched and using that as a standard to evaluate him.  But how would that view change if you took the name plate off the back of his jersey and set aside his imposing physical presence on the ice (a 6’9” defenseman)? 

He is one of three Capitals defensemen of eight to dress to have played in all 21 games to date, he is tied with Justin Schultz for second place among defensemen in goals scored (two apiece), his 19:24 in ice time per game trails only that of John Carlson (24:23), his 31 credited hits trail only Brenden Dillon (46), he is tied with Carlson for second place in blocked shots, and his plus-10 rating is best among all skaters regardless of position.  Heave ice time loads have not made him a liability on the ice, the Caps posting a 5-2-1 record in the eight games in which he logged at least 20 minutes.  Nevertheless, Chara will turn 44 years of age on March 18^th, the oldest skater in the NHL.  Perhaps in acknowledgment of this fact, or the Caps back at full strength, his ice time has been pared back in subtle fashion; he has not logged 20 minutes in any game since Game 11 against the New York Rangers.  Since then, Chara has averaged 18:12 per game in ten games.  And, he had a very quiet game in the Caps last contest, a 3-2 win over New Jersey on Sunday – 18:29 in ice time, no points, even, one blocked shot, no credited hits.  Whether he will require a night off here or there down the stretch is a possibility, but for now, not overworking him seems to be the plan of action.  Chara is 8-6-14, minus-1, in 37 career games against Boston.

In the end…

The East Division is in a mud fight for control, even if it has been largely these two teams fighting it out for the top spot over the course of the first 20 or so games.  What advantage the Caps have here is history.  Since the 2009-2009 season, Washington is 30-10-2 against Boston and is 14-5-1 against the Bruins in Boston over that span of time.  Boston has made things more of a contest recently, the Caps overall edge just 5-3-0 since the 2018-2019 season and 2-1-0 in Boston.  This should be a good indicator of where this year’s versions of these team stand against one another, this time as division rivals. 

Capitals 4 – Bruins 3

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 7

If the Washington Capitals were marching in place in Week 6 with a 2-2-0 record, they advanced smartly in Week 7 with three wins and points in all four games on the schedule.  Just in time, too, for as the week ended, there were only three points separating the top-five teams in the East Division.  Three of the other four teams had multiple games in hand on the Caps, putting more pressure on the Caps to perform at the highest level.

Record: 3-0-1

The Caps had four games in Week 7, split between two teams, a pair of contests with the New Jersey Devils wrapped around a pair against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The games against the Devils – one each in Washington and Newark – were only the second and third meetings of eight matchups between these teams this season. Washington swept the first two games, out-scoring the Devils, 9-5.  On the other hand, the Caps and the Penguins, as if there were not familiar enough with one another, played their fifth and sixth games against each other in Week 7.  The Caps gave up a 2-1 second period lead but forced overtime in the first of their matchups this week before losing in overtime, 3-2.  Washington made up for that in the second of the two games, beating the Pens 5-2 in a game that featured two empty net goals.  The teams will not meet again to wrap up their season series until they meet to end the April and begin the May portion of their schedules.

Offense: 4.00/game (season: 3.45 / 4th)

The Caps posted 16 goals in Week 7, and the spread the cheer in doing so.  T.J. Oshie led the club with three goals in four games, and Lars Eller added a pair.  Eleven other Caps had a goal apiece.  In all, 12 forwards found the back of the net.  Only Evgeny Kuznetsov among the 13 forwards to dress for the week did not have a goal, and he missed Saturday’s game against New Jersey with an injury.  It was the opposite on defense, where John Carlson was the only defenseman to post a goal, that in the opening game of the week, a 4-3 win over the Devils. 

What Carlson dd not do on his own in lighting the lamp, he did for others.  His six assists led the team for the week, as did his seven points overall.  Oshie led the forwards in points with five.  What was noteworthy about the scoring overall was that 18 of 19 skaters recorded points.  Only Dmitry Orlov failed to put a crooked number on the score sheet.  Seventeen of 19 skaters had at least one even strengthe point.  Five skaters posted ten shots (Alex Ovechkin, Oshie, Carlson, Carl Hagelin, and Jakub Vrana).  Only one of the 19 skaters posted a minus rating (Garnet Hathaway, minus-1).  It might have been the most balanced offense the Caps displayed over a week’s worth of games in some time.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 3.25 / 26th)

It was not a bad week for the defense, which held the two opponents under their season goals per game averages.  New Jersey posted five goals in two games (2.50 goals per game), while they finished the week at 2.69 goals per game for the season.  And, they allowed just 28.8 shots per game, ninth-fewest for the week.  They allowed 186 shot attempts at 5-on-5 over the four games, fifth-fewest of the 14 teams playing four games.  Their plus-14 on shot attempts at 5-on-5 ranked fifth-best as well among those 14 teams. 

Three Caps playing in all four games did so without having been on ice for an even strength goal scored against – Richard Panik, Conor Sheary, and Alex Ovechkin.  Another seven Caps played in all four games with only one goal scored against while they were on ice.  At the other end, Carl Hagelin had a bit of a round week, on ice for four even strength goals scored against, most on the team.

Goaltending: 2.48 / .913 (season: 2.91 / .902)

Craig Anderson got his first start as a Washington Capital, and while it was not the most efficient of efforts (23 saves on 26 shots/ .885 save percentage), he got the “W” in the Caps 4-3 win over New Jersey to start the week.

Vitek Vanecek continue to shoulder the heaviest workload burden, getting the last three games of the week, going 2-0-1, .2.31, .921 in 181 minutes of play.  Vanecek was consistent over the week, allowing two goals in each of the first, second, and third periods of play.  Those two third period goals he allowed, both in the 5-2 win over Pittsburgh, came on a total of 23 shots faced in the third period over the four games, the result being that his third period save percentage was considerably lower (.913) than in the other two periods (first period: .935; second period: .941).  Vanecek was over .900 in save percentage in all three games he played in Week 7, his longest streak of such games this season.

Power Play: 4-for-11 / 36.4 percent (season: 30.8 percent / 4th)

Washington had the second best power play in Week 7 (New York Islanders: 2-for-5/40.0 percent), quite an improvement over their 14.3 percent mark in Week 6. But it is that inconsistency that has plagued the Caps with the man advantage this season.  They have faithfully alternated weeks over 35 percent and weeks under 15 percent this season, four of the former and three of the latter. 

T.J. Oshie had two of the four power play goals the Caps recorded for the week, Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson getting the others.  Oshie also led the Caps in point with the man advantage (three); Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and John Carlson getting a pair apiece.  Ovechkin and Carlson led the Caps in total power play ice time, the only Caps logging more than ten minutes for the week (15:06 and 10:25, respectively).

On the one hand, the Caps were very efficient on the power play in Week 7, as their 36.4 percent conversion rate suggests. But beneath that, the Caps were 3-for-4 against the Devils to open the week, 1-for-7 in the last three games of the week. And, the Caps managed only nine power play shots on goal in 17:43 of power play ice time. Going without a shot over 6:31 of power play ice time in two games (the first game against Pittsburgh and Saturday’s game against the Devils).

Penalty Killing: 9-for-12 / 75.0 percent (season: 79.1 percent / 15th)

Penalty killers were not as successful as their power play counterparts in Week 7.  The penalty kill has not been very impressive this season, but in three of the last five weeks it was under 80 percent.  The 75.0 percent mark for the week was tied for 19^th in the league.

The Caps did limit shots on the penalty kill for the week, holding opponents to 14 shots in 19:33 of shorthanded ice time.  Four Caps logged more than ten minutes on the penalty kill: Carl Hagelin (11:07), Zdeno Chara (10:52), Nick Jensen (10:49), and Nic Dowd (10:11).

Faceoffs: 126-for-240 / 52.5 percent (season: 47.6 percent / 25th)

The Caps did something they rarely do in this category.  They finished the week second in faceoff win percentage, trailing only Carolina (56.4 percent).  Washington was 50 percent or better in all three zones for the week, 50.0 percent in the offensive zone, 53.2 percent in the defensive zone, and 54.9 percent in the neutral zone.

The fine performance was largely the product of Nic Dowd dominating the faceoff circle.  In four games he was 38-for-60 (63.3 percent), 59.5 percent or better in all three zones.  He did get some help, though.  Lars Eller and Nicklas Backstrom each finished within a faceoff win of being over 50 percent for the week, although Backstrom’s 38.9 percent mark in the offensive end was disappointing.  

Goals by Period:

The third periods of games were where the action was for the Caps in Week 7, the nine third period goals they scored being more than half their total for the week.  Part of that was posting three empty net goals – two against Pittsburgh in a 5-2 win and another in the 5-2 win over New Jersey to close the week.  Those three empty net goals left the Caps tied with three other teams for second in the league in that category (five), trailing only Tampa Bay (seven).  The nine third period goals for Week 7 doubled the Caps total (from nine to 18) for the season.

The Caps managed to hold back the second period demons in goals against for the most part, but allowing the tying goal in the middle frame to Pittsburgh in their first meeting of the week proved important in the 3-2 overtime loss, the only blemish on the Caps’ record for the week.

Year-over-Year:

Comparing year-over-year numbers at this stage of the season is comparing those of a streaking team (last year’s 14-2-4 team though 20 games) with a team that is grinding out wins despite absences and getting to a comfort level under a new coach’s systems and philosophies.  This accounts for the Caps of last year having far and away the better numbers at this stage of the season than this year’s version.  Even where this year’s Caps are better (fewer shorthanded situations faced), they give the advantage back (lower penalty kill rate).

In the end…

The Caps did what they had to do in Week 7 – put some distance between themselves and teams beneath them in the standings.  The bonus is that they ended the week two points clear of the team closest their rear view mirror in the standings, the Boston Bruins.  A good thing, too, for the Caps open Week 8 with a pair of games against the Bruins in Boston.

Three Stars:

• First Star: John Carlson (1-6-7, plus-3, two power play points, six credited hits, three takeaways, ten shots on goal, 22:00 in average ice time)
• Second Star: T.J. Oshie (3-2-5, plus-2, two power play goals, three power play points, ten shots on goal, 30.0 percent shooting percentage, 50.0 percent on faceoffs)
• Third Star: Vitek Vanecek (2-0-1, 2.31, .921 (11^th in save percentage of goalies playing in three or more games)

A TWO-Point Afternoon: Washington Capitals -- Game 20: Capitals 5 - Devils 2

The Washington Capitals started their weekend getaway in Newark, New Jersey, with the first to two matinee matchups at Prudential Center.  The Caps entered the game on a three-game points streak (2-0-1), while the Devils were on a four-game streak not having won a game in regulation (1-3-0, the win coming in overtime in Buffalo against the Sabres on Thursday).  The Caps got out to a big lead early – 3-0 less than 14 minutes into the game – held on when the Devils made a push in the middle minutes of the contest, then score a pair of goals to win, going away, 5-2.

First Period

Washington drew first blood in the fourth minute of the game.  With the Caps advancing with speed through the neutral zone, Carl Hagelin fed Justin Schultz on the right wing.  Schultz skated the puck down the right side and from the circle fed the puck across to Garnet Hathaway for a one timer into the short side of the net before goalie Mackenzie Blackwood could scramble across the crease.  It was 1-0, Caps, 3:36 into the game.

Just over 90 seconds later, the Caps struck again. Brenden Dillon’s floater from the left point struck defenseman P.K. Subban, who was tying up Daniel Sprong, and the puck sailed past Blackwood, off the neat post, and in at the 5:07 mark to make it 2-0.

Lars Eller made it 3-0, finishing a 3-on-1 rush made possible when Will Butcher mishandled the puck just inside the offensive blue line.  Eller led them out, feeding Conor Sheary when the trip reached the offensive blue line.  Sheary looked left, then fed the puck to his right where Eller deposited it behind Blackwood at the 13:40 mark.

New Jersey got the game’s first power play when Conor Sheary was sent off for tripping at 18:09.  It took the Devils seven seconds to convert.  Off a set play, P.K. Subban fired a puck past the post and off the end boards. It caromed out onto the stick of Nico Hischier, who stuffed it inside the post to goalie Vitek Vanecek’s right, and it was 3-1, 18:16 into the period.  That would be how the teams went off for the first intermission.

-- Fourteen of 18 skaters had plus ratings for the Caps in the period, John Carlson the only one at plus-2.

-- Washington led the Devils in shots on goal, 14-8, and they had the edge in shot attempts, 22-19.

-- The teams split 20 faceoffs down the middle, ten wins apiece; Nic Down was the only Capital over 50 percent (3-for-4/75.0 percent).

-- Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom had two takeaways apiece to lead the Caps.

-- Nick Jensen led the Caps in ice time with 7:23.

Second Period

The Devils got the first power play of the second period, Alex Ovechkin going off for holding at 1:35.  Washington killed the penalty, holding the Devils without a shot, and they held onto their two-goal lead.  They did halve the lead, though, when Vitek Vanecek was knocked down in his crease, lost his stick, and then after scrambling to his feet, Pavel Zacha wristed the puck past him at the 6:09 mark to make it a 3-2 game.

Washington got their first power play or the contest at the 15:59 mark when Travis Zajac went to the penalty box to ponder his previous 1,001 NHL games, called for a holding penalty. The Caps failed to convert, recording no shots in the two minutes.  The teams went to their respective locker rooms after 40 minutes with the Caps holding onto their 3-2 lead.

-- The Devils out-shots the Caps, 5-4, in the second period but were out-attempted by the Caps, 14-8.

-- Every Capital skater had at least one shot attempt through 40 minutes.

-- Garnet Hathaway led the team in credited hits through two period with three.

-- Giveaways can be awarded in arbitrary fashion, but Washington had only two in 40 minutes, while the Devils had 12.

Third Period

The teams circled one another around the rink like Rocky and Apollo Creed in the last round of their first fight, but then the Devils ramped up their game.  They could not find the equalizer, though, and it cost them. Jakub Vrana gave Washington a two-goal leadat 11:49 when Jakub Vrana got behind the Devils defense, took a lovely chip pass into space from the left wing boards by John Carlson, and scored though Blackwood’s pads on a breakaway.

New Jersey got a change to get closer with under five minutes left when Brenden Dillion went off for delay of game/puck over glass at the 15:29 mark.  The Devils power play was wiped out when Kyle Palmieri went off for hooking at 16:00, putting the teams a 4-on-4.  Neither team could score in that instance, but with the Devils’ net empty in the last two minutes, Nic Dowd iced the matter with an empty net goal at 19:06, the Caps winning by a 5-2 margin.

Other stuff…

-- The five goals scored by the Caps made it five in consecutive games, the first time they did that this season and the first time since Game 66 and 67 last season when the Caps lost in overtime to the New York Rangers, 7-6, and followed that up with a 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

-- Eleven different Capitals had points, Carl Hagelin and John Carlson each with a pair (assists for both).

-- For Hagelin, it was his first multi-point game of the season and first since February 23^rd last season when he had a pair of goals against Pittsburgh in a 5-3 win.

-- It was Carlson’s 113th multi-point game of his career, extending his lead among defensemen in Capitals history and tying Dale Hunter for eighth-place among all skaters since 1979-1980.

-- Fifteen Caps skaters finished with plus ratings, none with a minus.  John Carlson was best at plus-3.

-- Carlson led the team in ice time (21:36); Dmitry Orlov led in even strength ice time (20:32), the only player on either team to top 20 minutes at evens.

-- The teams tied in shots on goal with 24 apiece, while the Devils out-attempted Washington, 47-45.

-- Jakub Vrana, Tom Wilson, and John Carlson led the team with three shots on goal apiece.  Carlson led the club with six shot attempts.

-- Nic Dowd and Nicklas Backstrom each had ten faceoff wins for the Caps.

-- Vitek Vanecek stopped 22 of 24 shots (.917 save percentage); it was the third straight game in which his save percentage was over .900, a season high streak.

In the end…

The Caps had a great first 15 minutes, a good last dozen minutes, and an iffy middle, sort of like a sandwich made with two slices of artisanal bread and no filling.  It was enough in this game because Vitek Vanecek did a lot to keep the Devils from establishing any momentum, especially at even strength (21 saves on 22 shots, and the goal scored after he was knocked down in his crease).  That said, now the question is who the Caps start in goal on Sunday.  Ride Vanecek in the back half of a back-to-back set of games?  Give Craig Anderson his second start? Or activate ilya Samsonov?  This is why they pay the head coach the big bucks.  But that’s for Sunday.  Saturday was a good day.

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 20/21: Capitals at Devils, February 27/28

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open a five-game road trip with a visit to Newark, New Jersey, where they will face the New Jersey Devils on Saturday and Sunday at Prudential Center.  The Caps head out having taken three of four available standings points in two games against the Pittsburgh Penguins to extend their recent run of success to 4-1-1 and tie the Boston Bruins in standings points at the top of the East Division.  Meanwhile, the Devils are treading water and slowly sinking under the waves, going 1-3-0 in their last four games, although the win came in their last outing, a 4-3 overtime win over the Buffalo Sabres.

The Devils are a team in transition, but there are signs that they are making progress toward becoming a team t be reckoned with.  Looking at the team’s February scoring, it is evident that the youngsters are taking over.  Sure, there is Kyle Palmieri, who turned 30 on February 1^st, tied for the team lead in goals for the month (three), but the other goal scorers for the month are sprinkled with players in their mid-20’s or younger.

Pavel Zacha is in that group and tied with Palmieri for the lead in goals scored this month and leading the team in points (eight). Now in his sixth season, Zacha is finally showing the skills that made him the sixth-overall pick of the 2015 Entry Draft. He started the season slowly, going without a point in his first four games, but since then Zacha is 5-7-12, plus-3, and he has a four-game points streak going into the weekend games against the Caps.  The odd part of his four-game streak is that he had no shots on goal in two of them, his first two games without a shot on goal this season.  Nevertheless, Zacha is on a pace that would build on last season’s career year in points (8-24-32 in 65 games).  He is on a pace to finish this season 19-26-45, plus-7, which would be career highs in each category.  Zacha is 0-4-4, plus-3, in 12 career games against the Caps.

Nico Hischier is another one of the youngsters on whom the Devils are learning to depend, but he has struggled a bit this month and all season, for that matter, although his participation has been limited to four games due to rehabilitation for a leg injury and COVID protocols. Hischier has only one point (a goal) in those four games played to date, but his coming around would seem to be a “when,” not “if.”  He has been a consistent goals scorer in three seasons preceding this one, averaging 0.24 goals per game in his rookie year, in 2017-2018, 0.25 goals per game two seasons ago, and 0.24 goals per game last season. 

That lone goal Hischier has might be a signal.  It came in his last game, a 4-3 overtime win over Buffalo on Friday. In addition to recording his first point of the season, he took his first penalty, and he recorded a season high four shots on goal (he had a total of four over his first three games).  Hischier’s slow start did nothing to prevent his being named the 12^th captain in Devils’ history, a position that was vacant since Andy Greene, now of the New York Islanders, was captain in the 2018-2019 season.  When named to that position, he became the youngest captain in the league and second youngest in Devils’ history (Kirk Muller).  Hischier is 4-5-9, minus-3, in 11 career games against Washington.

The effort to get younger by the Devils is not limited to skaters.  Goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood is another player in that effort, currently the sixth youngest goaltender to appear in at least one NHL game this season. Blackwood was the second goaltender taken in the 2015 Entry Draft (second round/42^nd overall, 20 spots after the Caps’ Ilya Samsonov).  His 78 NHL games to date lead his draft class in that category, as does his .917 career save percentage over two-plus seasons.  This season, Blackwood ranks third among 50 goalies with 400 minutes played in save percentage (.932), trailing only Andrei Vasilevskiy (.935) and Marc-Andre Fleury (.942).

There do seem to be cracks in his performance recently, though. After going 5-0-1, 1.94, .945 in his first fie appearances, , Blackwood is 1-2-0, 3.04, .907 in his last three games.  The odd part of his career to date is that he is a reflection of just how much Martin Brodeur dominates the Devils’ lifetime statistics.  For instance, Brodeur won 688 games with the Devils, while the other 49 goalies in team history combined for 834 wins.  Blackwood is already tenth on that wins list in Devils history 37), and he could pass Johan Hedberg (38) for ninth place with a pair of wins this weekend.  In four career games against the Caps, Blackwood is 1-3-0, 3.43, .890.

1.  New Jersey ranks dead last in the league in faceoff winning percentage (42.4 percent).  None of the four Devils taking at least 100 draws is at 50 percent or more, and only Nico Hischier among 11 taking at least five draws is over 50 percent (32-for-53/60.4 percent).

2.  For a team with a long history as a “defense-first” sort of club, the Devils have found offense.  In six of their last eight games they scored three of more goals and scoring five twice.

3.  The Devils do not do it with a physical edge.  They rank 26^th in credited hits per 60 minutes (17.48), and they average 3.41 penalties taken per 60 minutes (24^th).

4.  New Jersey does not do much in terms of drawing penalties, either.  Their 3.14 penalties drawn per 60 minutes rank 27^th in the league.

5.  New Jersey has more wins when out-shot (four) then when out-shooting opponents (three).

1.  Washington has a 47-47-7 (with seven ties) record against the Devils in their lifetime series.

2.  The Caps lead the league in second period goals scored (29), while in the first and third periods combined, they have only 34 goals.

3.  The Caps’ defense falters late.  They have allowed only 15 first period goals this season, but they have allowed 23 goals in each of the second and third periods of games.

4.  Washington ranks dead last in the league in penalties drawn per 60 minutes (2.95), and their net penalties per 60 minutes (minus-0.62) is second-worst in the league.

5.  The 5-2 win over Pittsburgh on Thursday night was only the Caps’ second win by three or more goals this season.  The other was January 28^th, a 6-3 win over the New York Islanders.  In both games, an empty net goal provided the three-goal margin.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: P.K. Subban

Over a six season stretch ending with the 2017-2018 season, P.K. Subban was one of the most prolific defensemen in the NHL.  Over that period he played in 422 games with two teams (Montreal and Nashville), ranking ninth among all defensemen in goals 68), third in assists (233), third in points (301), tied for fourth in power play goals (29), second in power play points (135), and eighth in average ice time per game (24:56).

Since then, his production has diminished.  In his last 146 games over two-plus seasons in Nashville and New Jersey, he has 17 goals (tied for 36^th among defensemen over that period), 38 assists (tied for 78^th), 55 points (72^nd), five power play goals, tied for 31^st), 18 power play points (tied for 50^th), and has averaged 22:23 in ice time per game (43^rd).

Age should not be a factor in Subban’s drop in production. He will not turn 32 years of age until May.  And, this year’s production on a per-game basis (1-5-6 I 15 games) is an improvement overall over last year (7-11-18 in 68 games).  However, he does not yet have an even strength goal, and his one goal (on a power play) has come despite averaging 2.53 shots on goal per game.  Only once in four seasons preceding this one did he average more (2.67 shots per game in 2018-2019).  Subban is 1-4-5, plus-2, in his last eight games, so he might be returning to a level of play with which fans are more familiar.  He is 1-8-9, minus-3, in 30 career games against Washington.

Washington: Nick Jensen

Yeah, yeah, Nick Jensen has not scored a goal since John Quincy Adams was in the White House.  At the moment, it might be in the back of Jensen’s mind, but it has not hurt his play of late.  It was not surprising that Jensen had only two assists in his first ten games.  What he has is three assists in his last six games, including this superb feed through the Penguin defense on Thursday setting up this goal by Nicklas Backstrom:

At the other end, if you discount Jonas Siegenthaler not being on ice for any even strength goals against in one game played this month, Jensen has been on ice for the fewest number of even strength goals scored against the Caps among defensemen (four in ten games, tied with Justin Schultz in seven games).  His on-ice even strength goal differential for the month among defensemen (plus-3) is best among eight Caps defensemen playing in February.  His 15 blocked shots leads that group in February, and perhaps surprisingly, his 14 credited hits are third among Caps defensemen this month.  For what might be the first time since Jensen was acquired by the Caps along with a fifth-round pick in the 2019 Entry Draft for Madison Bowey and a 2020 second-round draft pick, Jensen is displaying the skills he was brought to Washington to provide.  Jensen is 1-2-3, even, in 14 career games against the Devils.

In the end…

The Devils are an easy team to look past, if one looks at their standings position (sixth in the East Division) and their recent history (one playoff appearance in the last eight seasons).  But in the East, it is a dog-eat-dog battle to get through 56 games, and New Jersey is one of six teams with a points percentage over .500).  They have struggled lately (4-5-1 in their last ten games overall) and at home this season (2-4-1, worst home record in the division), but if the Caps look past this team to their matchup with Boston for two games to follow, it could bite the Caps.

Capitals 5 – Devils 2

Capitals 4 – Devils 3