The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: 2021 East Division Semi-final, Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Washington Capitals (36-15-5)

vs.

Boston Bruins (33-16-7)

Then and Now I

Looking at the chart above, “then” looks a lot like “now” for the Caps, even just looking at year-over-year, 56 game results.  That the Caps’ performance in 2020-2021 so closely resembles that of the 2019-2020 team should not be all that surprising.  Thirteen skaters dressed in both seasons in their entirety, and three others – Richard Panik, Jakub Vrana, and Jonas Siegenthaler – were with the club for most of the season before being traded (although Siegenthaler dressed for only seven games with the Caps this season).

If there is one category where there is some separation between last year and this, it is in the power play, where the Caps are more than four percentage points ahead of last year’s pace through a similar number of games and up 11 ranking spots.  That improvement in overall power play efficiency allowed the Caps to improve their special teams index more than four percentage points and three ranking spots.

Then and Now II

In 30 seasons in which the Caps reached the postseason in their history, they faced the Bruins only three times (not counting last season’s pre-playoff round robin play-in):

• 1990: Boston won, 4-0 (Eastern Conference final)
• 1998: Caps won, 4-2 (Eastern Conference semi-final)
• 2012: Caps won, 4-3 (Eastern Conference
• Overall Caps’ record: 2-1 in series, 8-9 in games

If there was a common thread in the three series, it was defense.  Boston’s to be specific.  They held the Caps to six goals in the four-game sweep in 1990 (1.50 per game) and allowed only 23.5 shots per game.  The Bruin penalty killers limited the Caps to two power play goals on 14 opportunities (14.3 percent), although that was a regular season in which the Caps’ power play was far from powerful (17.0 percent/19^th of 21 teams).  Boston went on to the Stanley Cup final that year, where they lost to the Edmonton Oilers in five games.

The tables were turned the next time the two teams met, in the Eastern Conference semi-final in 1998.  The goal differential for the series with narrow, plus-2 over six games for the Caps, but they held Boston to an average of just 2.17 goals per game.  Nevertheless, each team recorded a shutout in the series, Washington winning Game 4 by a 3-0 margin, and the Bruins taking Game 5, 4-0.  Three of the seven games went to overtime, the teams splitting the first two instances, both of which went to a second overtime.  Boston won Game 2, 4-3, in two overtimes, while the Caps took Game 3, 3-2, in double overtime.  The third overtime game went to the Caps, 3-2, in the series-clinching Game 6.  They would go on to their first Stanley Cup final, where they were swept in four games by the Detroit Red Wings.

The most recent meetings of the two teams I the postseason came in 2012, the Bruins entering the opening round series as the defending Stanley Cup champions.  It was an unimaginably hard fought series in which all seven games were decided by a single goal, and in keeping with the defense theme that runs through the playoff history between these teams, four of the game were settled with a combined three or fewer goal scored by the two teams. And, overtime was once more a noteworthy feature of the series.  Four of the seven games went to extra time, the teams splitting the four overtime results.  But it was Washington, evening up the overtime record at two wins apiece, who got the last word, ending the series in overtime of Game 7 on one of the most famous goals in team history. 

How Caps of you to notice…

The Caps scored only five third period goals against Boston in eight games this season.  Washington did not score fewer third period goals against any other opponent (they also scored only five against the New York Islanders).

How Caps of you to notice II…

In 17 games in the all-time playoff history of these clubs, the Caps scored power play goals in eight of them, going 4-4. When they didn’t score one, they went 4-5.  Didn’t seem to matter much, did it?

Never Ever…Again

Yeah, yeah…we’re back here again with an oldie, but a goody… We’re still waiting on the first four-game sweep by the Caps in a seven-game series.  The Caps do have a three-game sweep of the Islanders in their history, though, but that was way back in 1986, one of two three-game sweeps in a best-of-five series in team history (the other against Philadelphia in 1984).

The Magic Number

9.  The Caps scored nine power play goals in eight games against the Bruins this season.  The Caps did not score more power play goals against any other opponent, and the Bruins did not allow more power play goals against any other opponent.  Oddly enough, or “how very Caps of you to notice,” the Caps were just 2-3-0 in the five games in which they scored at least one power play goal (1-2 when they scored more than one) and 2-1-0 when they were shut out on the man advantage.

The Cast of Skaters

Balance, balance, balance.  No, Alex Ovechkin did not extend his string of 30-goal seasons to start his career (the streak ends at 15 seasons, tied with Mike Gartner for most all-time).  But the Caps did have nine players out of 29 who skated for the team this year with double-digits in goals scored.  Twenty four had points, including 24 of 25 who appeared in at least five games (Jonas Siegenthaler, traded at the trading deadline, was the lone skater in that group without a point).

Six players averaged at least 0.70 points per game (a 57-point pace per 82 games) – Nicklas Backstrom (0.96), Alex Ovechkin (0.93), John Carlson (0.85), T.J. Oshie (0.81), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.71), and Tom Wilson (0.70). Thirteen players shared in the 33 game-winning goals for the Caps.  Balance, balance, balance.

The balance extended to the season series against Boston.  In the eight game season series, 26 skaters dressed for the Caps against the B’s.  Of that group, 16 recorded goals (including the since departed Jakub Vrana and Richard Panik), and 22 recorded at least one point (including Vrana and Panik).  When you consider that the four skaters who did not record a point in the eight-game series dressed for a combined five games against Boston (Michael Sgarbossa was the only one appearing in two games).

The fact about the Bruins that jumps off the page is numbers – the sheer volume.  Boston employed 33 skaters against the Caps this season; they dressed 36 against all opponents for the season.  Only John Moore, Ondrej Kase, and Par Lindholm (a combined nine games played for Boston) did not dress against the Caps.  The volume of skaters employed masks what balance Boston had in scoring against the Caps.  While their goal scoring balance did not rival Washington’s (12 had goals; Brad Marchand’s seven being more than a quarter of the total of 26 goals), they did have 21 skaters recording at least one point.  One point of some concern is the contributions of the defense.  Boston used 12 defensemen against the Caps this season, only Connor Clifton dressing for all eight games.  Seven blueliners had points. But the Bruins got goals from only three – Charlei McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and Jeremy Lauzon with one apiece.

Working with a net

Perhaps as much as any team in the postseason, the Capitals’ situation in goal is unsettled.  The impolite term would be “a mess.”  If goaltender is the most important position on the ice, an idea magnified in the playoffs, it is the biggest concern the Caps have.  Vitek Vanecek had a fine rookie season.  He was among the top performers of his rookie class, highly ranked in many statistical categories: tied for first in games played (37), first in wins (21), sixth in goals against average (2.69, out of 12 rookies playing in at 10 games), tied for third in shutouts (two).  But there is the save percentage.  Vanecek finished eighth of 12 goalies playing in at least ten games, posting a .908 mark, and he was seventh save percentage at even strength in that group (.915).

Vanecek was slightly below his overall performance in seven games against Boston this season, going 4-3-0, .286, .905, and his game-by-game performance was wildly uneven.  Overall, Vanecek’s home road splits were troubling.  He was, as one might expect, effective at home – 2-1-0, 2.68, .920.  But the difference in his road record – 2-2-0, 3.00, .889 – was significant and worrisome.  Not that many goalies were successful against the Bruins in Boston – only seven of 16 goalies to dress against the Bruins on the road posted save percentages over .900, but it will bear watching if Vanecek gets the nod in goal for the Caps.

And then there is Vanecek’s game-to-game performance against Boston.  In seven appearances against the Bruins this season, he allowed a single goal three times.  On the other hand, he allowed four or more goals three times as well.

As for Ilya Samsonov, he has not seen game action since May 1^st, has not won a game since April 24^th, and has not posted a save percentage over .900 in a game since shutting out the New York Islanders on 26 shots in a 1-0 Gimmick (that’s a “shootout” for you new readers) win.  Since then, he (with Evgeny Kuznetsov) were suspended for disciplinary reasons for one game, and then he and Kuznetsov were placed on the COVID protocol list.  Head coach Peter Laviolette said at the time of the suspension that “Right now, we’re working through things inside the room…We’ve got to work together inside here. There’s gotta be rules. There’s gotta be boundaries. We got expectations set and you need to be accountable to that.”  At the risk of jumping to conclusions, since we are not privy to all that goes on behind the locker room door, it is not a good situation in which a goalie, who started the season third on the depth chart, ends up the default choice because the other goaltender who was supposed to be the number one goalie this season has made a hash of his season when things started to matter more. 

On the other side, things are settled.  It will be Tuukka Rask for Boston, unless he reverts to his early career numbers against the Caps (2-11-5, 3.10, .889, two shutouts in his first 19 career appearances against the Caps through 2018-2019).  Rask finished 15-5-2, 2.28, .913, with two shutouts this season, but after missing all but 20 minutes of play over more than a month to what was thought to be a back injury, Rask is 7-1-0, 2.07, .923, with two shutouts.  Over that span, since April 25^th, he is tied for second among all goalies in wins (seven), eighth of 41 goalies logging at least 250 minutes in goals against average (2.07), 12^th in save percentage among goalies in that group (.923), and tied for second in shutouts (two).  He is playoff-ready.

Who’s Hot ‘n’ Not?

For the Capitals over the last ten games of the regular season…

• HOT -- Daniel Sprong: 6-0-6 (tied for team lead in goals), plus-1, 28.6 shooting percentage, three game-winning goals
• HOT -- T.J. Oshie: 6-0-6 (tied for team lead in goals), even, 31.6 shooting percentage, three power play goals (only power play goals for Caps over that span)
• HOT -- Dmitry Orlov: 1-6-7 (team leader among defensemen in points over that span), plus-7 (best among all skaters), 22:02 per game in ice time
• HOT -- Brenden Dillon: 36 credited hits (leads team over that span), 11 blocked shots (tied for team lead), plus-5 even strength on ice goal differential (second on team)

• NOT – Alex Ovechkin: 0-0-0, even, three games played (seven missed to injury), 12:19 in average ice time
• NOT – Zdeno Chara: 0-1-1, minus-3, 17 penalty minutes, minus-3 even strength goal on ice goal differential (tied for worst on team)
• NOT – John Carlson: 0-2-2, plus-2, four games missed to injury, no power play points
• NOT – Anthony Mantha 0-3-3, plus-1, no goals since he scored one in each of his first four games as a Capital

For the Bruins over the last ten games of the regular season…

• HOT – Taylor Hall: 5-3-8, plus-9; tied for team in goals over that span, second in plus-minus
• HOT -- David Krejci: 2-12-14 (leads team in points over that span), plus-10 (leads team), four power play points (leads team)
• HOT – Brad Marchand: 4-8-12, plus-3, 32 shots on goal (leads team over that span)
• HOT – Charlie McAvoy: 1-4-5, plus-7, 22:47 in ice time per game (leads team over that span), 12 blocked shots (tied for second on team), plus-1 takeaway-to-giveaway differential

• NOT -- Jeremy Lauzon: 0-1-1, minus-2
• NOT – Connor Clifton: 0-0-0, plus-4 (in six games), minus-3 in net penalties (drawn less taken, worst on team over that span), minus-1.72 penalties per 60 minutes (only Bruin worse than minus-1.00)
• NOT – Curtis Lazar: 1-1-2, minus-2, 43.2 faceoff percentage (worst of four Bruins over that span taking 50 or more draws)
• NOT -- Kevan Miller: 0-1-1, even

Looks at Rooks

The Caps, consistent with being a veteran team, had a small footprint of rookie contributions this season among the skaters.  Brian Pinho, Garrett Pilon, and Connor McMichael combined to appear in four games (Pilon dressed for two contests).  None of the recorded a point, and they had a combined four shots on goal (Pinho had three). Only McMichael was hit with a penalty (one minor infraction).  They combined for just under 36 minutes played for the season.  As for goalies, the performance of Vitek Vanecek is described above.

Boston’s contributions from rookies are more significant and, frankly, more surprising for a club perennially thought of as a more veteran group.  Eight rookie skaters dressed for the Bruins, five forwards (Zach Senyshyn, Trent Frederic, Jack Studnicka (now how is that for a hockey name?), Oskar Steen, and Cameron Hughes) and three defensemen (Jakub Zboril, Urho Vaakanainen, and Jack Ahcan).  Frederic and Zboril led the rookies in games played (42), while Studnicka added another 20 among those playing in more than 10 games.  Frederic led the rookies in goals (four), while Zboril led them in points (0-9-9).  None of the rookies had a plus rating this season, Zboril the only one able to climb to even.  Frederic was far and away the leader in penalty minutes (65, which also led the team as a whole) and was worst in plus-minus rating among the rookies (minus-8).  He also happened to be the only Boston rookie to contribute any game-winning goals (three, tied for third among all skaters) and was the only Bruin rookie to post a goal against the Caps this season.

The B’s dressed two rookie goalies this season – Jeremy Swayman and Dan Vladar.  Neither is likely to get any action in this series, but their regular season performance is worth noting for their being at opposite ends of the performance spectrum.  Swayman was 7-3-0, 1.50 (best among all rookies playing in more than one game), .945 also best among rookies playing in at least one game), with two shutouts (tied for third among 27 rookie goaltenders this season).  At the other end, Vladar was 2-2-1, 3.40, .886 in five games.

Special Considerations

The Caps finished third overall in power play efficiency in the regular season (24.8 percent), but that is a deceptive number.  First, their “net” power play percentage, accounting for power play goals scored and shorthanded goals allowed – was just 19.6 percent, ninth in the league.  And, their power play goal differential (goals scored less shorthanded goals allowed) of plus-30 ranked just 13^th.  That is a product of their league most eight shorthanded goals allowed.  

Then there is the home-road split.  Washington led the league in home ice power play efficiency (30.6 percent), but their road power play efficiency of 19.8 percent ranked just 15^th.  The Caps were not particular about where they allowed shorthanded goals, allowing four at Capital One Arena (tied for most in the league) and four on the road (tied for most in the league).

The Caps’ power play was also up and down generally over the course of the season:

• January (nine games): 44.4 percent/1^st in the league
• February (12 games): 21.6 percent/13th
• March (14 games): 15.2 percent/23rd
• April (15 games): 31.3 percent/3rd
• May (six games): 11.8 percent/18th

Something to keep in mind with the Caps’ power play is that they had 153 power play opportunities overall, tied for ninth-fewest in the league (2.73 per game).  Only 72 man advantage chances this season came on home ice where their 2.57 opportunities per game ranked tied for sixth-worst in the league.  They were very efficient at home, but ineffective to a degree, given their limited chances to unleash that fury.

At the player level, it is odd to see Alex Ovechkin not leading the team in power play goals.  That honor went to T.J. Oshie (13, to Ovechkin’s nine).  A bit stranger is Ovechkin ranking third in power play goals per 60 minutes.  He finished third (2.85), behind Oshie (4.78) and Tom Wilson (3.07) among Caps with more than one power play goal.

Unsurprisingly, Nicklas Backstrom led the team in power play points (22) and power play assists (17).  It was his power play goal total that was more surprising.  He had five in 55 games (0.09 per game), a considerable improvement over last season (two in 61 games/.03 per game), and more than his career average (0.08 per game).

The disappointment in this area was Evgeny Kuznetsov, who went just 1-7-8 in 41 games.  One power play goal was his lowest output since he failed to record one in 17 games in his first NHL season in 2013-2014.  The seven assists with a man advantage continues a disturbing trend of under-production.  He has only 13 power play assists in 104 games over the last two seasons after posting 15 in 76 games in 2018-2019 and 23 (career high) in 2017-2018.

Among the defensemen, John Carlson deserves mention.  He did have three power play goals in 52 games, a total for a season that he exceeded only once in the previous six seasons (four in 2017-2018).  It was his assist total that was down, to 12, which was his lowest total since he also had 12 in 82 games in 2014-2015. 

The first power play gets the lion share of the ice time, so it is unsurprising that it was on ice for such a share of shorthanded goals against, but this season was rather grisly in this regard.  Remember, the Caps allowed eight shorthanded goals against, most in the league.  Alex Ovechkin was on ice for seven of them, more than 28 other teams.  Oshie, Backstrom, and Carlson were on ice for six (more than 24 other teams), and Kuznetsov was on ice for five (more than 20 other teams).

The penalty kill might not get enough credit for its performance this season.  Their 84.0 percent penalty kill overall ranked fifth in the league, an improvement over last season (82.6 percent/sixth).  This year’s penalty kill was not overburdened in terms of shorthanded situations faced (2.89 per game/17^th-most in the league).  What it was not was much of a threat to score shorthanded.  Only three teams had fewer shorthanded goals than the two the Caps recorded (Colorado and Philadelphia with one apiece, and Detroit, who did not record one).

The Caps could stand to be a bit stingier on the penalty kill on home ice, where their 83.1 percent overall mark ranked eighth, and their 84.3 percent net penalty kill ranked 11^th.  Those numbers looked better on the road where the Caps ranked seventh in penalty kill overall (84.8 percent) and eighth in net penalty kill (86.1 percent).

Remember that the Caps allowed 26 power play goals against this season.  Four Caps were on ice for more than ten apiece – Zdeno Chara (18), Carl Hagelin (15), Nick Jensen (13), and Nic Dowd (11).  Given that these are the only four Capitals currently with the club who averaged more than 2:00 in power play ice time per game, these are not surprising results, but improving them would go a long way to securing a series win for the Caps.

As for the Bruins, their power play was good overall (21.8 percent/10^th in the league), but not great.  It was better at home (25.0 percent/fifth) than on the road (18.4 percent/17^th), as might be expected.  But this is a team that surprisingly, given a reputation for being a veteran team that takes care of business, allowed six shorthanded goals overall, fourth-most in the league.  And like the Caps, they were not choosy about where to be generous – three allowed at home and three on the road.

The Bruins had good scoring balance on their power play, 11 skaters posting at least one goal over the course of the season.  Patrice Bergeron led the group with seven, although David Pastrnak was right there with six in eight fewer games (48 to 54 for Bergeron).  Brad Marchand was the set-up man in charge with 14 power play assists, ten of them primary assists, which also led the team.  David Krejci was second in both categories (13 power play assists overall, seven of them primary assists).

The penalty kill, or more specifically the Bruins’ propensity to fall into shorthanded situations is something the Cap might be able to exploit.  Boston averaged 3.18 shorthanded situations faced per game this season, fourth-most in the league.  Although the Bruins’ penalty kill was highly efficient (86.0 percent overall (86.0 percent), that is a lot of burden to be placed upon it.

Behind the Bench

Peter Laviolette is tied for fourth among active coaches in playoff games coached (143, with the Islanders’ Barry Trotz).  His 75 wins in the postseason rank fourth among the active coaches, and his .524 winning percentage ranks sixth among active coaches with at least 100 games coaching in the postseason.  Among the four teams for whom he coached prior to his arrival in Washington, he was under .500 in win-loss record in the playoffs with only one team, and that was with only 12 games for the Islanders (4-8/.333).  He is a three-time conference champion head coach in 12 seasons going to the playoffs, including and season in which he piloted the Carolina Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup (2005-2006).  Looking at the recent history of Caps coaches, you might say that Laviolette is something between the uber-discipline of a Barry Trotz-coached team and whatever it was that the Caps were doing under Todd Reirden.  The defense does not appear as structured as a Trotz team, at least not in an obvious sense, but it is not generally a leaky team as much as it suffers some growing pains from the young goaltenders that the Caps employ.  The offense has not suffered under Laviolette, who has allowed the talent to flourish, reflected in the Caps’ overall fine scoring offense and power play numbers.  He is not going to be beaten in this series by a lack of playoff-tested experience.

On the other bench, many fans’ memories of Bruce Cassidy are of his stay with the Caps, who went 47-47-9 in the regular season and 2-4-0 in the playoffs in his first NHL head coaching assignment, and might have been best known for his benching Calle Johansson in the playoffs in Johansson’s last game with the Capitals, imaginative use of napkins, and a lack of professionalism.  The intervening years appear to have matured Cassidy and made him a better coach.  He now ranks seventh all-time in regular season games coached in Bruins history (315) and tied with Don Cherry for third-most games in the playoffs (55).  His 27 postseason wins ranks fourth (he can tie Cherry for third with a win in this series over the Caps).  Those 27 postseason wins also have the Bruins fourth in postseason wins since he arrived in 2016-2017, two behind the top-ranked Tampa Bay Lightning (29, including round-robin play-in games last season).  He has overseen a club that is effective in the offensive end in the postseason (2.95 goals per game/sixth-best in the league since he came into the league) and stingy in their own end (2.58 goals allowed per game/sixth).  His has been the best power play in the playoffs (29.2 percent) and good on the penalty kill (82.6 percent/11^th).  He turned around a struggling team (26-23-6 under Claude Julien when he arrived in 2016-2017, and then going 18-8-1), and he has maintained a constantly effective level of play.  He does not have the depth of experience Laviolette has, but his resume with Boston is that of an effective coach nonetheless.

The Caps will in if…

One, they can get and stay healthy and whole.  Late season injuries and absences by Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Ilya Samsonov, T.J. Oshie, not to mention the season-long absences of Michal Kempny and Henrik Lundqvist, plus others nicked up her and there, bit into the late game win-loss performance of the Caps.  Washington showed an ability to grind out games, but this is a different kettle of fish.  And Boston knows how to catch and cook fish.

Two, they get superior performances from Evgeny Kuznetsov and Anthony Mantha.  Their late season production has been disappointing for different reasons.  Kuznetsov has been efficient when he has been in the lineup, but he missed 15 of 56 games this season for a variety of reasons.  And he just hasn’t taken that next step toward elite status since his career year in 2017-2018.  He ha the talent to be a 27-56-83 player on a consistent basis, but he has not even reclaimed that level of performance.  And, he has only four goals and 11 points in 15 playoff games (with a minus-5 rating) since going 12-20-32, plus-12 in 24 games in the 2018 Stanley Cup-winning postseason for the Caps.  As for Mantha, is his 0-3-3, plus-1, scoring line merely a “slump” since his scoring goals in each of his first four games with the Caps, or is it an indicator of what frustrated the Detroit Red Wings to making him available in a trade at this season’s deadline?

Three, Vitek Vanecek finds his inner Cam Ward.  Vanecek won a lot of games for a rookie, his 21 wins ranking third all-time in Caps history among rookie goalies.  But his underlying numbers (2.69 GAA, .908 save percentage) suggest he was more often a passenger than a goalie who could steal a game.  And, he goes into the postseason with a 4-3-1, 3.17, .886, with one shutout in his last eight regular season appearances.  But contemplate the experience of Cam Ward as a rookie in 2005-2006.  He had a nice regular season win-loss record (14-8-2), but his underlying numbers (3.68/.882) were, well…not so nice.  And then came the playoffs.  Taking over for an ineffective Martin Gerber (1-1, 3.52, .886), he finished the playoffs 15-8/2.14/.920, with two shutouts.  His GAA was second among all goalies playing in more than one game, his save percentage was sixth in that group, and he skated off with the Conn Smythe Trophy as the MVP of the postseason.  Vanecek doesn’t have to be Smythe-level good for the Caps to win this series (although it would be nice), but he has to be more consistent and more effective than he was coming into this postseason.  And no, we do not anticipate Ilya Samsonov or Craig Anderson getting minutes unless Vanecek forgets entirely how to play the position, or he is otherwise unable to play.  This is not how the goaltending part in the script read when the season started, but it is what it is.

The Bruins will win if…

One, they just keep doing what they have been doing since April 1^st.  In 24 games since then, Boston was 15-7-2, third-most wins and ninth-best points percentage (.667).  They have been good in the ends over that period, ranking eighth in scoring offense (3.29 goals per game) and seventh in scoring defense (2.46 goals allowed per game).  Their shots/shot allowed differential has been superb (plus-7.4 per game), and their shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 has been excellent (55.0/fourth).

Two, Tuukka Rask is the goalie who showed up in the last six weeks, not the goalie who couldn’t beat the Caps in his earlier career.  As noted above, Rask had his early problems with the Caps (2-11-5, 3.10, .889, two shutouts in his first 19 career appearances against the Caps through 2018-2019), but he is 2-0-2, 2.70, .913 since then.  And, he is 7-1-0, 2.07, .923, with two shutouts since returning from injury last month.  If it is that Rask who shows up, the Caps have their work cut out for them.

The “Perfection Line,” a tribute to hubris by Bruins Nation, is a “more perfect union” (like how we folded some American history into this?  Hey, read the Preamble to the Constitution).  Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak, finished one-two-three, respectively, in goals scored, combining for 72 of the 164 goals scored by the Bruins this season (43.9 percent), and that is with Pastrnak sitting out eight games to injury (hip injury, COVID protocol).

In the end…

All the important indicators for this series are colored black and gold, not red, white and blue.  Boston should win this series, and frankly, they should do it in less than seven games.  What the Caps have shown this year, especially late in the season, is a certain resilience that has allowed them to grind out games.  It is that, contingent upon them being generally healthy, which will propel them into what could be series against another team that wears black and gold.

Caps in seven

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 56: Capitals vs. Bruins, May 11

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are at the end of it, and we are perhaps at the beginning of it.  The regular season ends for the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night when they host the Boston Bruins at Capital One Arena.  This contest also might be viewed as “Game 0” of the first round of the playoffs, inasmuch as the current standings would have the Caps hosting the Bruins in the East Division semi-final round of the postseason.

Boston plays the first of a back-to-back to close their season when they host the New York Islanders in the last game of their home season on Monday night (if Boston wins, they clinch third place in the division and a first round matchup with the Caps).  Going into that game, it is hard to say whether the Bruins are hot, cold, or hot and cold.  They are 11-3-1 over their last 15 games, but how they built that record might be of some concern.  A six-game winning streak was followed by consecutive losses, and then they rattled off a four-game winning streak before alternating losses and a win in their last three contests.

Over span covering those 15 games, only the Minnesota Wild have more standings points (11-1-2/24) than the Bruins (11-3-1/23), and Boston is fifth in points percentage (.767), best in the East Division.  It probably will not surprise anyone that Brad Marchand leads the team in goals (nine) and points (15) over those 15 games.  After all, as of Monday morning, Marchand leads the Bruins for the season in goals (28) and points (67), and he ranks tied for sixth in the league in goals and is third in points.

Marchand, the player who might be the only one hated around the league more than the Caps’ Tom Wilson, has the temerity to be a really good offensive player.  Only COVID, this year and last that resulted in abbreviated schedules, are likely to prevent him from posting six straight 30-goal seasons (he had 28 in 70 games last season).  COVID will prevent him from posting a fifth straight 80-point season (he had four straight coming into this season, including 87 in 70 games last season).  He is one of two players to post at least 200 goals over the last six seasons (202; Alex Ovechkin has 255), he ranks fourth in total points over those six seasons (485), and he is sixth in points per game over that span (1.14).  As if to rub salt in the wounds of opponents who bristle at his antics outside the rules, he has 41 game-winning goals over the last six seasons, second only the Connor McDavid (43), and no player has more overtime goals (12, tied with Jonathan Toews).  If he manages a goal against the Caps, he will become only the second player over the last six seasons to score 100 goals on the road (Ovechkin: 132).  Marchand is 7-6-13, plus-12, in seven games against the Caps this season and 15-18-33, plus-2, in 39 career games against Washington.

One expects Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron to be among the top goal scorers and point getters for the Bruins, but Nick Ritchie?  The six-year pro spent four-plus seasons with the Anaheim Ducks after being taken with the tenth overall pick of the 2014 Entry Draft by the Ducks, before he was traded to Boston for Danton Heinen in February 2020.  His high in goal scoring in those four-plus seasons with the Ducks was 14 in his sophomore season of 2016-2017.  Ritchie has already passed that career high in his first full season with Boston, recording 15 goals in 54 games.  The odd part of that, though, is that despite ranking fourth on the team in goal scoring (behind the trio mentioned above) and seventh in points (26), he has the fourth-worst plus-minus rating (minus-7) on the team.  Another odd fact about Ritchie’s season is that he has a career-high five power play goals, shattering his previous high (two, in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020).  In fact, he had a total of six career power play goals in 294 career games before posting five in 54 games this season, good for third on the team behind Bergeron (seven) and Pastrnak (six).  Ritchie has been hot of late, scoring five goals on 22 shots (22.7 percent shooting) in his last ten games.  He is 2-1-3, even, against the Caps this season and 4-1-5, minus-1, in 16 career games against Washington.

Boston has had a hard time icing a consistent squad of defensemen this season.  None have appeared in every game for the Bruins, and only one – Charlie McAvoy – has appeared in as many as 50.  No other Bruin defenseman has appeared in more than 43 games (Connor Clifton).  But injuries have not slowed Matt Grzelcyk from being a producer from the blue line.  Despite missing 18 games to four different injuries, the slightly-built Grzelcyk (5’9”/174) is tied for the team lead in goals among defensemen (five, with McAvoy) and is the only defenseman other than McAvoy to record double-digits in points (20, to McAvoy’s 30).  He, McAvoy, and Steven Kampfer are the only defensemen to post power play goals for the Bruins this season.  For Grzelcyk, it is quite a bump up in productivity.  Over his previous three seasons in Boston he was consistent, averaging between 0.05 and 0.06 goals per game per season and averaging between 0.27 and 0.31 points per game per season.  This year, his production jumped significantly, more than doubling last year’s goals per game (from 0.06 to 0.14) and almost doubling his points per game (from 0.31 to 0.56).  Grzelcyk is finishing strong, going 1-4-5, plus-7, in his last five games.  He is 0-1-, plus-4, in three games against Washington this season and 0-2-2, plus-6, in 11 career games against the Caps.

1.  Boston is 4-3-1 in their last eight road games, outscoring opponents, 22-16. In five of those eight games they allowed one or no goals (two shutouts). 

2.  The Bruins lead the league overall in number of games allowing one or no goals (20), but they have just a 16-4-0 in those games, the four losses in regulation also leading the league.

3.  No team has allowed fewer 5-on-5 goals on the road than Boston (40, tied with Carolina).

4.  Boston has allowed 26 third period goals and three overtime goals in road games this season.  They have allowed a total of only 34 in the first 40 minutes of road games this season.

5.  While the Bruins have enjoyed success in road games decided by two goals (5-2/.714 winning percentage) and in games decided by three or more goals (4-3/.571), they have struggled in road games decided by one goal (6-3-4/.462).

1.  The Caps have only 16 wins on home ice this season, tied for 12^th in the league (with Edmonton).

2.  Winning one-goal games on home ice has not been a problem.  Their 10-0-3 record is third-best in the league by winning percentage (.769).

3.  Only four teams have a worse net penalties per 60 minutes on home ice than the Caps (minus-0.37).  None of them – Philadelphia (minus-0.40), Anaheim (minus-0.42), Detroit (minus-0.42), or Vancouver (minus-0.46) – are in the postseason.

4.  For their growing reputation (true or not) for nastiness, the Caps have only four major penalties on home ice this season.  Only four teams in the league have fewer (the New York Islanders, Winnipeg  Jets, Buffalo Sabres, and Carolina Hurricanes).

5.  The Caps are still waiting for a power play goal from any defenseman other than John Carlson this season (three).  None of the other seven defensemen to dress for the Caps this season have one.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: David Krejci

Sometimes it seems as if David Krejci has been a Bruin since the days of Milt Schmidt and Dit Clapper.  But the fact is that he has been in the league only since 2006-2007, entering the league one season after Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby.  In his 15 years as a Bruin, Krejci has built an impressive resume.  He ranks seventh in games played for the club (961 as of Monday morning), 16^th in goals (215), seventh in assists (512), eighth in points (727), 18^th in plus-minus rating (plus-141), tied for 20^th in power play goals (50), ninth in power play points (190), tenth in game-winning goals (41), and tied for fifth in overtime goals (five).

At the age of 35, Krejci is fighting to maintain some consistency in offensive production.  His 0.16 goals per game this season (eight in 50 games) is his lowest since he posted 0.15 goals per game in 2014-2015.  He is averaging 0.66 assists per game, which is keeping his points per game (0.82) at a respectable level, slightly over his career average (0.76 points per game).  Krejci has been on fire down the stretch, going 6-12-18, plus-14, over his last 15 games through Sunday, his 18 points second on the team over that span, and his plus-14 rating tied for best on the team with Patrice Bergeron and Taylor Hall.  Krejci is 2-3-5, plus-1, in seven games against Washington this season and 12-19-31, minus-9, in 46 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Daniel Sprong

When the Caps obtained Daniel Sprong in a trade with the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Christian Djoos in February 2020, one might have been forgiven for the front office, let alone fans, not quite knowing what they got in the 22-year old winger.  In four seasons with Pittsburgh and Anaheim he showed a brief glimpse of what was possible, posing 14 goals in 63 games split between the Penguins and Ducks in 2018-2019.  But otherwise he seemed a bit of a disappointment, posting a 5-2-7, minus-3 scoring line in his other three seasons preceding his trade to Washington.  He played only five games with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, going 1-5-6, minus-1, not much evidence to project his future with the Caps. 

Even early on in this season, it was difficult to see if Sprong could fill some or all of his potential as an offensive contributor.  In his first 13 games he was 3-1-4, even.  He averaged just 9:21 in ice time, stapled to the fourth line for the most part, topping ten minutes of ice time only six times in those 13 games.  Not bad, but not much to predict in terms of his future.  But then, his season took a turn.  He put together a four-game points streak in early March (3-1-4, plus-5), and his ice time got a jolt, up to 13:25 per game over that short stretch.  Since then, he has been something of a good luck charm, going 7-5-12, plus-3, with three game-winning goals in 24 games while averaging 12:38 in ice time per game.  Odd Sprong fact… if he goes 1-1-2, plus-2, and the goal is a game winner at even strength, not an altogether rare occurrence in the NHL, he would finish the season 7-4-11, plus-5, with seven even strength goals and two game winners both at home and on the road.  He is 1-1-2, plus-2, in four games against the Bruins this season (something to keep in mind) and 1-1-2, minus-2, in nine career games against Boston.

In the end…

The last game of the season for the Caps is something to be endured with the hope that no one else succumbs to injury and those who are sitting out can use the time off to get better sooner before the postseason starts.  The game isn’t “meaningless,” a term that might mean more to fans than to players or coaches.  After all, this could be a preview of the Caps opening playoff round.  If anything, this game brings to mind the old Vince Lombardi quote about winning and commitment…

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don’t do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

In this case, “winning is an all the time thing” might not apply to this game, but for the players who do dress, doing things right all the time is what matters.  And if they do that, winning just might take care of itself.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 17

The Washington Capitals played four games in Week 17, each with its own story line.  There was the first of a two-game set with the New York Rangers in which Tom Wilson engaged in rough stuff with Pavel Buchnevich, Ryan Strome, and Artemi Panarin, taking 14 minutes in penalties for his trouble, and Panarin being injured to end his season.  Then there was the rematch with the Rangers that featured an inspirational performance by T.J. Oshie, who returned to play on Wednesday after the passing of his father, Tim “Coach Osh” Oshie early on Tuesday morning to record a hat trick, not to mention 140 minutes in penalties taken by the two teams in the aftermath of the unplesantness in the first game of the set.  There was the first a two-game set against the Philadelphia Flyers in which the Caps looked emotionally spent and played flat in their only loss of the week.  And then there was the rematch with the Flyers on Saturday in which the Caps were missing almost every key offensive player, lost Wilson and Oshie to injury during the game (Wilson returned, Oshie did not), did not hold a lead in regulation, and scored with 40 second left to tie the game before winning in overtime.  It was a month’s worth of stories and action packed into the last full week of games of the Capitals’ regular season.

Record: 3-1-0

When Week 17 began, the Caps controller their own destiny with respect to the East Division.  Win out, and they would win the division.  Even when the Caps lost to the Flyers in the first game of their two-game set on Friday, the Caps still remained in control, but by a razor thin margin.  They had to win their last two games in regulation, which would give them 30 wins in regulation, one more than the Pittsburgh Penguins, who ended their season on Saturday night with a 1-0 win over the Buffalo Sabres, their 29th win in regulation for the season.  But when the rematch against the Flyers went to overtime, the Caps’ chances to win the division vanished.  While the Caps could tie the Penguins in regulation wins with a victory over Boston in their season finale on Tuesday, the Caps would lose the battle based on regulation-plus-overtime wins, 34-33.

Nevertheless, given the circumstances of Week 17, it was a very successful week.  Consider that by the time Lars Eller potted the goal in overtime to give the Caps a 2-1 overtime win over the Flyers, the Caps were missing Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Oshie.  That is 80 of the 186 goals scored by the Caps through Week 17 (43.0 percent).  And yet, they managed three wins, their sixth week in 13 in which they played three of more games that they won three or more games.

The week, while successful, did not keep the Caps from stumbling to the finish.  While the Caps were tied with six other teams with three wins to lead the league for the week, they are 12-7-1 since April 1^st, and while that is a good record, it is tied with Tampa Bay for 11^th-best in the league (by points percentage). 

Offense: 3.50/game (season: 3.38 / 4th)

The Caps had eight players share in the ten goals for the week, led by T.J. Oshie with four, despite his missing the first game of the week and the last 24:13 of the game due to a lower-body injury suffered in the last game of the week.  His team-leading goal production was a product of his hat trick against the Rangers in the second game of the week, the fourth hat trick of his career and second with the Caps.  Nic Dowd, Daniel Sprong, and Conor Sheary each had a pair of goals for the Caps.  Each of them had a game-winning goal for the week, the power of the unsung stepping up.

It was shared success for the Caps as far as points were concerned, 17 of the 21 skaters appearing in Week 17 recording points.  Oshie, Dowd, and Dmitry Orlov led the club with four points apiece, while an additional 11 posted two points.  Zdeno Chara was the only Capital appearing in all four games who did not register a point.

With Alex Ovechkin out of the lineup with a lower-body injury for all but 39 seconds of ice time for the week, the shots on goal were spread around a lot more.  Six Caps recorded ten or more shots on goal, led by Sheary with 16.  Even Trevor Riemsdyk had ten shots on goal.  His seven shots on goal against the Flyers to end the week were a career high in shots on goal for a single game.  Of the six Caps recording ten or more shots, Anthony Mantha (12) and John Carlson (10) were the only ones not to score a goal.  Mantha has not had a goal on 23 shots in nine games since he opened his career the Caps with goals in each of his first four games.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.91 / 18th)

The Caps did a good job in limiting shots on goal for the week, holding the Rangers and Flyers to an average of 26.3 shots per game over the four games, eighth-lowest average for the week.  The Rangers have not been the most prolific shooters over the course of the season (28.7 shots per game/25^th in the league), but the Flyers are a top-ten team in that category (30.2 shots per game/tenth).

The Caps also did a respectable job in limiting shot attempts, allowing 136 shot attempts-for at 5-on-5, eighth-fewest in the league and second-fewest among teams playing four games (Boston: 122).

In terms of scoring, the Zdeno Chara/Nick Jensen pair struggled at even strength, Chara on ice for six of the seven goals scored against and Jensen on ice for five of them.  Brenden Dillon was the only Capital appearing in all four games who was not on ice for a goal scored at 5-on-5.

Goaltending: 2.25 / .913 (season: 2.70 / .905 / 4 shutouts)

For the most part, it was Vitek Vanecek’s net in Week 17, Ilya Samsonov being suspended for unspecified reasons (late for a team function was the explanation) and then going on the COVID-protocol list.  Vanecek had a 2-1-0 week, a decent one for wins and losses, but his .893 save percentage left something to be desired.  It was the second periods of games that did him in with 21 saves on 25 second period shots face (.840 save percentage).  He also struggled at even strength, his .873 save percentage at evens ranking 48^th of 65 goalies to appear in Week 17.

With the Caps playing back-to-back games against the Flyers to end the week, Craig Anderson got the nod in the Saturday game, his second start for the Caps this season and first since February 21^st.  Anderson won his second game in as many starts, stopping 28 of 29 shots in the overtime win over the Flyers.  It was Anderson’s 291^st career win, good for tenth place among active goaltenders.

Power Play: 2-for-15 / 15.3 percent (season: 25.0% percent / 3rd)

Missing Ovechkin and having Carlson in and out the lineup was one thing in terms of its effect on the power play, but by the end of the week, the Caps were missing Ovechkin, Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and T.J. Oshie – the Caps’ first power play unit.  In the week-ending game against the Flyers, Justin Schultz (5:21 in ice time), Dmitry Orlov (2:50), Daniel Sprong (3:11), Lars Eller (2:38), Anthony Mantha (5:08), Tom Wilson (5:01), and Conor Sheary (2:59) logged at least two minutes of power play ice time.  Even with the Caps scoring both power play goals (both by T.J. Oshie) on seven opportunities in a penalty fest in New York in the second game of the week, it was hardly a surprise that the Caps had an off-week on the power play.

It was hard enough to go through a 2-for-15 week with the man advantage, but the Caps scored those two goals on 30 shots (6.7 percent shooting) over 26:59 in power play ice time.  Anthony Mantha led the team with five power play shots on goal, while Justin Schultz, Dmitry Orlov, and Lars Eller each had four.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-10 / 90.0 percent (season: 83.9 percent / 5th)

It was a better week on the other side of special teams, where the Caps finished at or above 90 percent for the seventh week this season.  Over the last two weeks they are 17-for-18 (94.4 percent).  Holding teams to 2.5 chances per game was a good thing, as was killing of the last eight shorthanded situations, including 27 seconds of a 5-on-3 Ranger power play in the second game of the week.  The Caps did it by limiting the shot total to 17 over 17:45 in shorthanded ice time.

Faceoffs: 111-for-221 / 50.2 percent (season: 49.0 percent / 23rd)

Week 17 was basically a break even week for the Caps overall, but there was a vast difference in their performance in the ends.  In the offensive end, the Caps won just 34 of 84 draws (40.5 percent).  Lars Eller in particular had a devil of a time, winning just six of 31 offensive zone draws (19.4 percent).  The was the difference between the 40.5 percent result and a 50 percent outcome, had Eller managed to win half of his draws.

In the defensive end, the Caps did much better overall, winning 40 of 69 faceoffs (58.0 percent), with every Capital taking at least one draw finishing over 54 percent. 

Of those Caps taking at least ten faceoffs overall, Nic Dowd (61.0 percent) and Nicklas Backstrom (58.3 percent) had very good weeks, while Eller (40.7 percent) and T.J. Oshie (45.0 percent) finished underwater.

Goals by Period:

The Caps won each period and overtime by the slimmest of margins – one goal in each – which shows how thin the margins are in games in the NHL.  At the end of the week, the Caps were a top-five team in both first period goals scored (55/fourth in the league) and second period goals scored (77/first), but they still lagged in third period goals scored (50/tied for 23^rd).  They were a decent club in first period goals allowed (42/tied for 11^th), but they still showed a need for improvement in second period goals allowed (55/tied for 20^th) and third period goals allowed (60/22^nd).

Year-over-Year:

This year’s overall record (35-15-5) is almost identical to last year’s through 55 games (36-14-5), but this year’s team is a lower event volume club in scoring, both goals for and against), shots (both for and against), shot attempts at 5-on-5 (again, both for and against), faceoffs (again, for and against).  They remain a somewhat more disciplined team, with almost a third fewer giveaways and more than 13 percent fewer penalties taken.  This team is, with some game-to-game exceptions, a tighter team than last year’s club with respect to event volumes, good and bad.

In the end…

Week 17 had everything for the casual and the rabid Capitals fan.  Scoring, line brawls, inspirational efforts, players stepping up in the face of adversity, grit, and determination.  What it did not have was star wattage with the absences of so many gifted offensive players due to injury.  That is what Week 18 is going to be about – getting healthy and whole.  Having clinched second place in the East Division and with just one game left on the schedule, there should be opportunity for that.  Just hope that no one else falls to the injury bug.

Three Stars:

• First Star: T.J. Oshie (4-0-4, even, two power play goals, eight shots on goal, 12 shot attempts, playing under the most difficult of circumstances)
• Second Star: Nic Dowd (2-2-4, plus-2, one game-winning goal, eight shots on goal, 11 shot attempts, 61.0 on faceoffs, nine credited hits (second on team for the week), four takeaways (led team), 2:06 in shorthanded ice time per game (led Caps forwards))
• Third Star: Conor Sheary (2-0-2, plus-1, overtime/game winning goal, 16 shots on goal (led team), 20 shot attempts)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 54/55: Capitals vs. Flyers, May 7/8

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open their last home stand of the regular season by hosting the Philadelphia Flyers for a two-game set on Friday and Saturday.  The Caps are coming off one of their most emotional games since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018, a 4-2 win over the New York Rangers than ran the gamut of feelings – dealing with a team seeking a measure of revenge over a team with a player – Tom Wilson – that they felt took liberties with their star player to comforting and ultimately celebrating a teammate – T.J. Oshie, whose father passed away on Tuesday and who scored a hat trick in his return to the ice against the Rangers on Thursday.

On the other side, the Flyers are left to contemplate a lost season, one which started with hopes of the playoffs, but that is ending as an also ran, a tea with a 12-19-4 record since March 1^st.  The Flyer fade coincides with a similar fade in the production of forward Joel Farabee.  After going 8-13-21, plus-6 in 52 games as a rookie last season, Farabee started the season as a pleasant surprise, going 8-9-17, plus-7 in his first 18 games through the end of February.  Since March 1^st, his scoring production is almost identical – 9-9-18 – but it covers almost twice as many games (34), and his minus-10 rating is one of nine that is minus-10 or worse for the Flyers since March 1^st.  The overall comparison for Farabee from last season to this is easy, since he comes into this series having played in 52 games this season to date the same number he played last season.  His goals are up (from eight to 17), assists are up (from 13 to 18), points are up (from 21 to 35), and shooting percentage is up (from 9.9 percent to 14.8 percent, best on the team among players appearing in ten or more games).  But with the way his season is ending, like that of the Flyers, it has to be looked at with a bit of disappointment.  Farabee is 1-4-5, plus-4, in six games against the Caps this season, 1-4-5, plus-4 in eight games against Washington for his career.

Thirty points, minus-16.  Most points since March 1^st, second-worst plus-minus rating among forwards.  That is Jakub Voracek’s history in 35 games since the beginning of March.  In that time, he was on the ice for 41 goals at even strength (second most among forwards), and his minus-11 goal differential at evens is tied for second-worst among Flyer forwards. What is more, his scoring has not really mattered all that much.  In 35 games since March 1^st, Voracek has points in 20 games, and the Flyers are just 9-8-3 in those contests.  Then there is the matter of his overall scoring.  Since posting a career best 85 points in 2017-2018, his points have plateaued at a lower level.  In that 2017-2018 season he averaged 1.04 points per game, but in three seasons since that average dropped to 0.85, 0.81, and 0.86 points per game this season.  Voracek is 0-3-3, minus-8, in six games against the Caps this season (lowest point total against any opponent) and 15-22-37, plus-2, in 45 career games against Washington.

The Flyers have dressed 32 skaters this season, and ten of them are rookies.  None have played more than Samuel Morin, who has 18 games to his credit. That Morin is still considered a rookie has to be considered an achievement.  He played in nine games across four seasons for the Flyers before this season after being taken with the 11^th overall pick in the 2013 Entry Draft.  His 27 games played to date in the NHL is the fewest among the top 20 picks in that draft (note: he was taken nine spots ahead of the Caps’ Anthony Mantha and 12 picks ahead of former Capital Andre Burakovsky).  Morin’s stock in trade is not scoring.  He has one point (a goal, which also happens to be a game-winner) in 27 career games in the NHL.  It is his physical play.  He ranks 11^th in the league among all forwards playing in at least 15 games in hits per 60 minutes (10.26), and he ranks fourth in that group in penalty minutes (35 in 18 games).  He has been out of the lineup for the past three games.  Morin is 0-0-0, minus-2, in two games against the Caps this season, his career record against the Caps as well.

1.  The Flyers have the only two forwards in the league on ice for more than 40 goals at even strength since March 1^st.  In addition to Voracek’s 41, there is Claude Giroux with 43.

2.  Since March 1^st, the Flyers have the worst scoring defense on the road in the NHL (4.06 goals allowed per game).

3.  That poor scoring defense is largely a product of the Flyers having the worst road power play since March 1^st (68.8 percent).  They allowed at least one power play goal in ten of 18 road games, and four times they allowed at least two power play goals.

4.  Over those same 18 road games, the Flyers have allowed three shorthanded goals, tied with four other teams (including the Caps) for most in the league over that span.

5.  The Flyers are 7-9-2 on the road since March 1^st.  All seven wins were by one goal (7-1-2).  They are 0-8 in multi-goal decisions.

1.  The Caps have the third-best winning percentage in one-goal games at home this season (9-0-3).  The Caps are tied for the most one goal wins on home ice this season (with Vegas and Pittsburgh).  Only the Caps and Tampa Bay have not lost a one-goal decision in regulation at home this season.

2.  Washington leads the league home power play efficiency (33.3 percent).  If they finish over 30 percent, they will become only the fourth team since 2005-2006 to do so (Boston (31.8 percent in 2018-2019), Edmonton (31.7 percent in 2019-2020), and Winnipeg (31.4 percent in 2018-2019)).

3.  On the other side, if the Caps allow one more shorthanded goal on home ice this season, they will tie for third-most shorthanded goals allowed at home since 2005-2006 (five) and will do it in 13 fewer home games.

4.  The Caps have drawn only 77 penalties on home ice this season, fifth-fewest in the league.

5.  If the Caps manage four power play goals in the two games against the Flyers, they would have 200 against Philadelphia in their all-time regular season series.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Alex Lyon

Goaltender Carter Hart is out for the rest of the season with a sprained knee.  With the Caps and Flyers playing back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday, it is highly likely the Caps will see Alex Lyon in goal for one of them.  A highly decorated goalie in the college ranks at Yale University (two-time Ken Dryden award as best goalie in the ECAC, first-team All-American, first-team All-ECAC, Ivy League rookie of the year, MVP for Yale), Lyon signed with the Flyers on an entry level contract in 2016.  Since then, he has bounced between the Flyers (21 games over four seasons) and the AHL (149 games with the Lehigh Valley Pantoms).  He has never appeared in more than 11 games in a season, that total coming in his first year in the NHL in 2017-2018. His career numbers since his entry into the NHL (6-7-1, 3.30, .888) do not suggest his future is as a permanent fixture in an NHL goaltending tandem, and at age 28, the clock is starting to tick louder on his career prospects.  He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, as will Brian Elliott.  With the possibility that those two depart, and with Hart’s future somewhat uncertain, given his injury and poor results this season (9-11-5, 3.67, .877, one shutout), the Flyers seem once more to have problems at the sport’s most important position.  Lyon is 0-1-0, 5.19, .875 in his only appearance against the Caps this season and 0-1-0, 4.56, .889 in two career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Nic Dowd

Fifty three games into the season, and Nic Dowd has a career high in goals scored (11).  It might surprise some, but as fourth line forwards go, Dowd has become a rather reliable goal scorer.  In 91 games with the Los Angeles Kings to start his career, he managed only six goals, a 5.4 goals per 82 game scoring rate.  In 40 games with Vancouver, he had three goals (6.2 per 82 games).  He scored a total of nine goals over his first three seasons in the league with a high of six in 2016-2017 with the Kings.  But in three seasons with the Caps, Dowd has 26 goals in 173 games (12.3 goals per 82 games)  and has not posted fewer than seven in any season.  Moreover, his shooting percentage has been noteworthy – 16.0 percent over his three years in Washington compared to 6.8 percent over his first three seasons.

Fans might remember that Dowd’s predecessor at center on the fourth line – Jay Beagle – was something of a good luck charm when scoring goals, the Caps going 41-1-5 in the 47 games with the Caps in which he scored at least one goal.  Dowd has done his best to assume that role this season, the Caps going 7-1-1 in the games in which he scored at least one goal, and three of his 11 goals have been game-winners, although he is looking for his first game-winner on home ice as he goes into this two-game set.  He goes into these games having scored goals in each of his last two games, including the game-winner in the Caps’ 4-2 win over the Rangers on Wednesday night.  Dowd is 3-0-3, plus-4, in six games against the Flyers this season and 3-3-6, plus-6, in 14 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

The Caps control their own destiny with respect to the East Division.  Win out, and they with the division, regardless of what the Pittsburgh Penguins do.  They will be facing a Flyers team that just has not been able to solve their problems in the defensive end of the ice, which would seem tailor-made for the second-best offense in the league (3.43 goals per game).  There is enough on the plate to motivate the Caps to finish the season strong, starting with this two-game set against the Flyers.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

Tom Wilson and the Nature of the Act: The Broader Problem

If you are a hockey fan, and you have not heard about the dust-up in New York between the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers on Monday night, and Tom Wilson’s feature role in it, you are a rare breed of fan.  Following a battle in front of the Capitals’ crease in which the Rangers were fighting to stuff the puck past Caps goalie Vitek Vanecek, Tom Wilson found himself tangled up with, in order, Pavel Buchnevich, Ryan Strome, Buchnevich again, and Artemi Panarin after Wilson took exception to Buchnevich’s behavior in the Caps’ crease on the play.

Wilson got in his licks on Buchnevich before Strome entered the fracas and tried to separate Wilson from his teammate.  Nic Dowd came to Wilson’s rescue and pulled Strome off Wilson’s back.  Panarin then literally took a flying leap, jumping on Wilson’s back as Wilson was trying to get at Strome.

Follow so far?

Wilson broke free of Panarin’s grip, took hold of Panarin’s jersey (reports of his grabbing Panarin’s hair to get leverage were incorrect), and slammed hm to the ice, getting a few tugs, described as “ragdolling” Panarin, for good measure. 

Wilson would be penalized 14 minutes (a double minor for roughing and a ten-minute misconduct) and would be fined $5,000 by the league, but not for his antics with Panarin.  The fine was for his punching Buchnevich while both were on the ice.  He received no supplemental discipline for his engagement with Panarin.

And all this points out what is wrong with the way the Department of Player Safety enforces discipline and metes out punishment.  Just not in the way you would expect.

Oh sure, the hockey media and social media outdid itself ratcheting up the hyperbole in the aftermath of the incident, from the use of comparatively tame descriptions as an “assault,” “dirty,” “Disgusting. Vile. An absolute embarrassment to the National Hockey League…filth,” “death penalty stuff,” But it hardly stopped there.  New York Post columnist and uber-cheerleader for the Rangers, Larry Brooks, described the incident as follows: “This was not only bush-league stuff from this notorious headhunter who has been suspended five times in his NHL career, it was frightening how close his initial body slam of Panarin, on which the Washington winger grabbed a chunk of hair to gain leverage, came to causing calamitous damage. Had Panarin’s head, rather than shoulder, hit the ice full force, the NHL might be presiding over a death.”   The headline to that story shouted, “NHL must ban Tom Wilson for nearly killing Artemi Panarin.”

But perhaps the real problem here is the NHL Department of Player Safety.  The first part of that problem, and arguably the least of them, is the conditional nature of supplemental discipline.  It amounts to “no blood, no foul.”  Two acts of the same nature are more than likely to be assessed different terms of punishment depending on the seriousness of injury to the victim of the act.  The act is the act, and the league has it backwards.  They punish the most injurious of acts severely (in many cases, but not all;  we will get to that), but it does less at the other end, which provides little incentive to players to restrain themselves because serious injuries, as horrific as they are, are comparatively rare.  There is a lot of un- or under-punished mischief going on.

Second, there is the matter of fines.  Many instances of punishment involve the imposition of a $5,000 fine, “the maximum allowable under terms of the collective bargaining agreement.”  While such a sum can be, as has been characterized in Wilson’s case, “a joke (about 0.12 percent of Wilson’s 2020-2021 salary),” it is only somewhat stiffer a punishment for players at the bottom of the compensation ladder, where $5,000 is 7.1 percent of minimum salary.  And the NHLPA has a dog in this fight over a maximum fine.  Unions are, by their nature, protective of compensation (and any levies against it), but players associations have a responsibility to their members to ensure a safe environment, or safer, given the nature of hockey, so that they can maximize that compensation over a brief career.  Higher maximum fines should be on the table.

But the worst part of the DoPS problem is the appearance of arbitrariness with respect to whom it metes out punishment.  At the core of this issue is the notion of “history.”  Tom Wilson has a history.  Other players have a history.  But there it seems unduly difficult to get a player on the history conveyor.  Player X has no history, so the punishment for a first offense is comparatively mild, if it is doled out at all.  Player X has a second incident, but has no history recognized for purposes of issuing sanctions.  And again, and again.  This seems, by appearances, to be how Sidney Crosby has avoided league sanctions for behavior outside the rules for incidents such as this from 2008:

…or this from 2017…

 

…or this from Tuesday night…

As serious as the Wilson incident?  Hardly, but the point is if you never get on the DoPS history list, you never get on the DoPS history list.

But Crosby’s antics are not what we will be watching today.  This play involving Philadelphia’s Shayne Gostisbehere and Pittsburgh’s Mark Friedman on Tuesday night will…

 

This play looks a lot like a very similar play from 2010….

Alex Ovechkin was suspended for two games for this hit.  Perhaps it was a product of Campbell’s being injured on the play (broken clavicle and broken rib).  The league offered a convoluted explanation of Ovechkin’s punishment, which noted the consideration given to Campbell’s injury and Ovechkin's "history."  Mark Friedman remained in the game after Gostisbehere’s hit, but it is the kind of hit that can end a player’s season (Campbell missed the last 14 games of the regular season and three playoff games).  Will Gostisbehere be given a pass as a result? As we write this, Gostisbehere is awaiting a hearing with DoPS, suggesting that some punishment is forthcoming.  To what extent will history be mentioned?  We will see.  Gostisbehere has no history of such infractions.

UPDATE: Gostisbehere was suspended for two games, after (in its statement) the DoPS called the shove intentional.  And yes, they did cite Gostisbehere's lack of history. A baby step, if that.  The problem remains.

The league’s Department of Player Safety is a plain mess when it comes to evaluating, fining, and suspending players for these sorts of incidents.  It has been for a long time and under multiple administrations.  It gives too much credence to history and not enough to the nature of the act.  This is not to say repeat offenders should not face an escalating scale of punishment at all, but those without that “history” seem to be treated rather lightly.  The fines need to have more bite.  And the DoPS needs to improve the consistency with which it evaluates and punishes offenders without regard to their status or the consequences of the action in terms of injury. 

We are told that “[the league identifies] whether a standalone incident is suspendable before taking into account who the perpetrator was. That means that if the Wilson/Panarin interaction was Panarin throwing down (pick a name) Conor Sheary, would Panarin get suspended for it?”  From the outside, this claim (in an otherwise excellent essay) just does not pass the sniff test.  But in the end, if you are going to throw the book at Tom Wilson, fine, so long as the guy making $750,000 a year without a history is given equivalent punishment for equivalent acts, even if the victim is not injured.  The object of the exercise is to minimize, if not eliminate dangerous actions taken by players, and inconsistency is the enemy of that aim.

Photo: Getty Images

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 52: Capitals 6 - Rangers 3

The Washington Capitals opened their last visit to Madison Square Garden on Monday night with a depleted lineup.  Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson returned to the lineup, but T.J. Oshie was out for personal reasons, Justin Schultz was out (presumably with an injury), and Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ulya Samsonov were held out for disciplinary reasons. The absences forced the Caps to go with 17 skaters, not the usual 18, against a New York Rangers team hanging by a hair in the playoff race.  Despite being shorthanded, the Caps came from behind and won going away, 6-3.

 First Period

The Caps went a man short when Lars Eller went off for tripping at the 1:04 mark.  The Caps killed the penalty without allowing a shot on goal.  The Rangers would be tagged with a penalty in the tenth minutes, Brendan Smith going off for holding the stick at 9:49.  Alex Ovechkin was not on the ice for the ensuing power play, he having gone to the locker room at the break in play, reducing the forward complement to ten forwards.

Nic Dowd opened the evening’s scoring on a play started with a faceoff win in the defensive end by Dowd.  Garnet Hathaway collected the loose puck and fed Carl Hagelin exiting the zone.  Hagelin poked the puck ahead to Nic Dowd to create a 2-on-1. With Hagelin on his left, Dowd called his own number from the right wing circle and beat goalie Igor Sheasterkin over his left pad at the 14:12 mark.

Conor Sheary made it 2-0 barely 90 seconds later.  Sheary gained the offensive zone along the left wing wall and wrapped the puck around the end boards to Tom Wilson along the right wing wall.  Wilson tried to feed Michael Raffl, but the puck was redirected by Raffl off his skate to Sheary heading to the net frm Shesterkin’s right.  Sheary collected the puck, spun and beat Shesterkin off his right pad at the 14:44 mark of the period.

Mika Zibanejad halved the lead when he took a feed by Artemi Panarin from the offensive blue line, circled through the left wing faceoff circle, and snapped a shot over the left shoulder of goalie Vitek Vanecek on the far side at 18:00 of the period.

-- The Caps outshot the Rangers, 15-10, in the period and out-attempted them, 20-14.  Daniel Sprong let the team with four shots on goal and five attempts.  Anthony Mantha and Conor Sheary had three shots on goal apiece.

-- The Caps blocked no Ranger shot attempts in the period.

-- Washington won 12 of 18 faceoffs; Nic Dowd winning all seven of his draws.

-- John Carlson skated 9:18 to lead the team.  Mantha led forwards with 8:16 in ice time.  Alex Ovechkin skated on 39 second shift before going off for the remainder of the evening with a lower body injury.

Second  Period

New York went a man to the good early in the period when Tom Wilson was sent to the penalty box for roughing at 1:12. Zibanejad converted the man advantage when he finished a three-man passing play with Panarin and Ryan Strome, beating Vanecek from the slot at 2:30 to make it a 2-2 game.

The Rangers took the lead when the kids combined on a goal, Alexis Lafreniere assisting on a Kaapo Kakko goal to finish a 2-on-1 rush at 4:35.

New York got their third power play of the game when the Caps were whistled for too many men on the ice at the 6:07 mark.  The Rangers went to a 5-on-3 power play when the teams got into a dust-up at the Caps’ crease.  Tom Wilson was hit with a double-minor for roughing and a ten-minute misconduct, and Brenden Dillon went to the box for roughing, while Pavel Buchnevich went off for the Rangers for roughing along with Panarin.  The Caps killed the 5-on-3 portion of the power play, and then they skated off the rest of the 5-on-4 Ranger advantage.

Washington had a chance to tie the game when the Rangers were called for too many men on the ice at 12:26, putting the Caps on a power play.  The Caps could not convert, though, and the Rangers held on to their one-goal lead.

Garnet Hathaway did get the game-tying goal when he cut to the middle and intercepted a weak clearing attempt from the top of the Rangers’ crease and backhanded the loose puck through Shesterkin at the 18:30 mark.  That would be the end of the scoring in the second period, the teams tied at 3-3.

-- The Caps and Rangers split 22 shot on goal down the middle with 11 apiece, the Rangers holding an 18-16 edge in shot attempts.

-- Only three Caps did not record a shot on goal in the first 40 minutes – Nicklas Backstrom, Trevor van Riemsdyk, and Alex Ovechkin (who skated only one shift in this game).

-- Nic Dowd won five of eight draws in the period and was 12-for 15 over two periods.

Third Period

The Caps got an early opportunity in the first minute of the period when Zac Jones was given two minutes for tripping 33 seconds into the period.  The teams had dueling breakaways during and just after the unsuccessful power play, Kevin Rooney for the Rangers and Michael Raffl for the Caps, both unsuccessful.

Daniel Sprong put the Caps ahead when he intercepted a weak attempt at a cross-ice pass from Brendan Smith, deked Shesterkin to the ice and wrapped the puck around the goalie’s left pad at 4:37.

Nicklas Backstrom gave the Caps a two-goal cushion when he took a pass from Michael Raffl just inside the Rangers’ blue line, cut between two defenders, and chipped a sand wedge over the left shoulder of Shesterkin on the far side at 11:41 of the period.

Tom Wilson scored an empty net goal with 1:26 left to provide the final 6-3 margin for the Caps.

Other stuff…

-- Tom Wilson had 16 penalty minutes, his highest total of the season (he had 12 in a 5-2 loss to the Rangers in New York on March 30^th).

-- The five goals allowed by Shesterkin are the most he allowed any opponent on home ice this season.

-- The Caps outshot the Rangers, 40-26, and out-attempted them, 60-48.  Daniel Sprong led the team with seven shots on goal and eight attempts.

-- Alex Ovechkin was the only Capital without a shot attempt.  OK, he had one shift.

-- John Carlson led the team with 25:00 in ice time.  But for Ovechkin and his one shift, Tom Wilson played just 11:34.

-- Nic Dowd skated 21:25 for the game, the most ice time he has had this season.

-- Garnet Hathaway (1-1-2), Nic Dowd (1-1-2), Conor Sheary (1-0-1), Michael Raffl (0-2-2), Nick Jensen (0-1-1), Carl Hagelin (0-1-1).  The lunch pail guys made a lot of noise.

-- Nicklas Backstrom and Dowd led the team in credited hits (three apiece).

-- John Carlson had three of the eight blocked shots for the Caps.

-- Ten different players had points.  Not bad for having essentially 16 skaters for the entire game.

In the end…

It is already cliché, but this is the most inspirational game the Caps played this season.  Consider that Ovechkin, Oshie, Kuznetsov, and Schultz -- all missing for this game save Ovechkin's lone shift -- accounted for 54 of the Caps’ 172 goals scored this season coming into this game, and yet they put up six on the Rangers, a team that has had their way with the Caps for the most part this season.  Playing with 16 skaters added pressure on the Caps, especially on the road, where the Rangers could exploit matchups with the last change.  And to top it off, the win returned the Caps to first place in the East Division over the Pittsburgh Penguins, who were hammered by the Philadelphia Flyers, 7-2.  All in all, you could find things to complain about (Tom Wilson and your 16 penalty minutes…we’re looking at you).  But the win’s the thing.