Monday, April 19, 2010
Sunday, April 18, 2010
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 3: Capitals vs. Canadiens
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Game 3
And this one means something, if the history of this franchise means anything. 31 times the Caps have played in a Game 3 in the playoffs, in which they have a record of 11-20. In those 11 wins, they went on to post a 7-4 record in those series. In the 20 losses, they went on to post a 4-16 record in those series.
Get the point?
But things are even now, and the Caps have a chance to right things and take back home-ice advantage with a win. It won’t be easy, though, as the Canadiens…
“Three is a very important number.”
Professor! It’s been awhile. Glad to see you could make the playoffs.
“Ach! I vood radder I miss de Nobel lecture, but dey are zo borink anyvay.”
You were saying about the importance of the number “three.”
“Ja. I heff ze three rules of work. Ze first iss, ‘Out of clutter, find simplicity.’”
And that means…
“Enuff mit de fency pents passink de puck! Zhoot ze puck!! Go to ze net!!!”
And the second rule?
“From discord find harmony.”
Sounds rather Zen, Professor.
“Zen, schmen. Ze Caps heff ziss goaltending pr-r-r-r-r-oblem, no? Vell, it’s not a problem. Ze Canadiens heff ze problem. Halak mit the shaky und ze swiss cheese he hess for a gloff hand. I zink I’m gettink hungry.”
Well, it has been a bit cheesy in this series. About the third rule…
“In ze middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”
OK, you got me on that one.
“It iss ver-r-r-r-ry zimple. The Cepps are in ze midst of a difficult zeries against Montreal, yes?”
So far…
“Vell, ze Cepps are not alone. In ze last zeven playoff opening rounds, ze eventually Stanley Cup champion vuss taken to six games, including three times in four years zince ze lockout. Twice in ze last seven years zey zharted in an 0-2 deficit and once tied 1-1.”
The moral of the story being…
“Zometimes, ze first round is ze toughest.”
Well, we are only two games into this series, and two games might not tell us much with respect to this series or the Caps, but here are some tidbits…
-- Nicklas Backstrom has half of the eight goals the Caps have so far. That would also be more than anyone else has scored so far in the playoffs.
-- Eric Fehr has taken ten shots on goal so far. That puts him in a tie for sixth among all players. If you’re wondering, Alex Ovechkin is tied for 35 in shots (six) and tied for 19th in goals (one) through two games.
-- John Carlson is tied for the league lead in playoff scoring among defensemen (1-2-3) through two games. He has almost as many shots on goal (eight) as the rest of the Caps defensemen combined (nine) and almost as many points (three) as the other Caps defensemen combined (four).
-- Mike Green has three shots on goal, has no points and is a minus-1. Hey, Chicago’s Duncan Keith doesn’t have a point, either (through one game), and is a minus-3.
-- For all the grief Jose Theodore will take for his performance thus far, he had a better save percentage than Marc-Andre Fleury through two games (.875 to .870) and a better one than Evgeni Nabokov (.865), and he had a better GAA through two games than Ilya Bryzgalov (3.70 to 4.00).
-- If you’re wondering, Jaroslav Halak is 2-2-1 in his last five decisions at Bell Centre (2.00, .925).
-- The Caps are one of three playoff teams (out of 16) without a power play goal, and they are tied for ninth in penalty killing. Special teams need to improve.
-- Seven shorthanded situations faced in two games is not bad, though. And it had better stay that way if the Caps are going to kill 71.4 percent of the shorthanded situations they face. Only three teams have been in fewer such situations, and two of them played on Sunday night. The other is, uh, Montreal.
-- As if to drive that point home even further, no team has more five-on-five goals scored than the Caps (although allowing six could use some improvement).
-- Only one team had more games in which they scored first than the Caps in the regular season (Chicago did so in 56 games to Washington’s 52). But the Caps fell behind in both of the first two games of this series. Don’t want to do that against a team that emphasizes defense as much as the Canadiens. It plays to their strength, and it requires expending too much energy to climb back.
In the end, the Caps have to win a game at Bell Centre – at least one. And after the iffy performance of Jaroslav Halak on Saturday (five goals allowed on the last 17 shots he faced), there is no time like the present. The Caps peeled away a layer of the onion on Saturday, getting big nights from Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin after the first line struggled in Game 1. Now it’s time for another layer to be peeled back – get Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green rolling. Given that he had ten goals in 14 career regular season games against the Habs coming into this series, it is Semin who seemed poised for his coming out party in this series.
It couldn’t come at a better time…
Caps 4 – Canadiens 3
Game 3
And this one means something, if the history of this franchise means anything. 31 times the Caps have played in a Game 3 in the playoffs, in which they have a record of 11-20. In those 11 wins, they went on to post a 7-4 record in those series. In the 20 losses, they went on to post a 4-16 record in those series.
Get the point?
But things are even now, and the Caps have a chance to right things and take back home-ice advantage with a win. It won’t be easy, though, as the Canadiens…
“Three is a very important number.”
Professor! It’s been awhile. Glad to see you could make the playoffs.
“Ach! I vood radder I miss de Nobel lecture, but dey are zo borink anyvay.”
You were saying about the importance of the number “three.”
“Ja. I heff ze three rules of work. Ze first iss, ‘Out of clutter, find simplicity.’”
And that means…
“Enuff mit de fency pents passink de puck! Zhoot ze puck!! Go to ze net!!!”
And the second rule?
“From discord find harmony.”
Sounds rather Zen, Professor.
“Zen, schmen. Ze Caps heff ziss goaltending pr-r-r-r-r-oblem, no? Vell, it’s not a problem. Ze Canadiens heff ze problem. Halak mit the shaky und ze swiss cheese he hess for a gloff hand. I zink I’m gettink hungry.”
Well, it has been a bit cheesy in this series. About the third rule…
“In ze middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”
OK, you got me on that one.
“It iss ver-r-r-r-ry zimple. The Cepps are in ze midst of a difficult zeries against Montreal, yes?”
So far…
“Vell, ze Cepps are not alone. In ze last zeven playoff opening rounds, ze eventually Stanley Cup champion vuss taken to six games, including three times in four years zince ze lockout. Twice in ze last seven years zey zharted in an 0-2 deficit and once tied 1-1.”
The moral of the story being…
“Zometimes, ze first round is ze toughest.”
Well, we are only two games into this series, and two games might not tell us much with respect to this series or the Caps, but here are some tidbits…
-- Nicklas Backstrom has half of the eight goals the Caps have so far. That would also be more than anyone else has scored so far in the playoffs.
-- Eric Fehr has taken ten shots on goal so far. That puts him in a tie for sixth among all players. If you’re wondering, Alex Ovechkin is tied for 35 in shots (six) and tied for 19th in goals (one) through two games.
-- John Carlson is tied for the league lead in playoff scoring among defensemen (1-2-3) through two games. He has almost as many shots on goal (eight) as the rest of the Caps defensemen combined (nine) and almost as many points (three) as the other Caps defensemen combined (four).
-- Mike Green has three shots on goal, has no points and is a minus-1. Hey, Chicago’s Duncan Keith doesn’t have a point, either (through one game), and is a minus-3.
-- For all the grief Jose Theodore will take for his performance thus far, he had a better save percentage than Marc-Andre Fleury through two games (.875 to .870) and a better one than Evgeni Nabokov (.865), and he had a better GAA through two games than Ilya Bryzgalov (3.70 to 4.00).
-- If you’re wondering, Jaroslav Halak is 2-2-1 in his last five decisions at Bell Centre (2.00, .925).
-- The Caps are one of three playoff teams (out of 16) without a power play goal, and they are tied for ninth in penalty killing. Special teams need to improve.
-- Seven shorthanded situations faced in two games is not bad, though. And it had better stay that way if the Caps are going to kill 71.4 percent of the shorthanded situations they face. Only three teams have been in fewer such situations, and two of them played on Sunday night. The other is, uh, Montreal.
-- As if to drive that point home even further, no team has more five-on-five goals scored than the Caps (although allowing six could use some improvement).
-- Only one team had more games in which they scored first than the Caps in the regular season (Chicago did so in 56 games to Washington’s 52). But the Caps fell behind in both of the first two games of this series. Don’t want to do that against a team that emphasizes defense as much as the Canadiens. It plays to their strength, and it requires expending too much energy to climb back.
In the end, the Caps have to win a game at Bell Centre – at least one. And after the iffy performance of Jaroslav Halak on Saturday (five goals allowed on the last 17 shots he faced), there is no time like the present. The Caps peeled away a layer of the onion on Saturday, getting big nights from Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin after the first line struggled in Game 1. Now it’s time for another layer to be peeled back – get Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green rolling. Given that he had ten goals in 14 career regular season games against the Habs coming into this series, it is Semin who seemed poised for his coming out party in this series.
It couldn’t come at a better time…
Caps 4 – Canadiens 3
In defense of... the defense
Many words are being devoted this morning to the struggles of Mike Green and Jeff Schultz, each of whom had a difficult game last night. It is part of a running narrative that disparages the Capitals defense. And for purposes of this series and these playoffs, it is a valid concern.
But let's step back from the white-hot cauldron of playoff commentary for a moment and think a little bit about the longer term. Think about opening night next year. It is entirely likely that the Caps will dress four defensemen -- Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner -- none of whom will have yet reached their 25th birthday (Green will turn 25 on October 12th).
How many teams in the NHL would like to have that problem on their blue line?
But let's step back from the white-hot cauldron of playoff commentary for a moment and think a little bit about the longer term. Think about opening night next year. It is entirely likely that the Caps will dress four defensemen -- Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner -- none of whom will have yet reached their 25th birthday (Green will turn 25 on October 12th).
How many teams in the NHL would like to have that problem on their blue line?
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 2: Capitals 6 - Canadiens 5 (OT)
At about 8:30 pm, it looked as if the words of Capitals head coach Bruce Boudreau would herald a bitter end to a season, “It's the finality of everything. You get in the playoffs and you go, 'Whoa, I can be done by Wednesday of next week.'” The Montreal Canadiens took a 4-1 lead into the game’s 39th minute. Then something happened…
Joe Corvo took a shot that rocketed past the far side of the Montreal net, the puck making its way to the stick of Nicklas Backstrom. But while that was going on, the reason Mike Knuble is on this team came into focus. Knuble slid down the slot as Backstrom was working his way down the half wall. As Backstrom was winding up for a shot, Knuble turned and planted himself at the edge of the crease, a human shield disrupting the view Canadiens goalie Jaroslav Halak had of the puck. Backstrom fired, Halak was distracted, and the Caps got a late goal in the second period to cut the lead to 4-2.
The third period was 20 minutes in the Wayback Machine, more reminiscent of a 1980’s playoff game that the defense-first (still) game played these days. The Caps clawed all the way back to tie the game at four-apiece, courtesy of Alex Ovechkin, who poked a rebound through the pads of Halak early in the period, then he recovered the puck off his own blocked shot and fed Backstrom at the goal mouth to tie the game. Tomas Plekanec (you might want to keep an eye out for this guy, boys) gave the Canadiens what seemed at the time to be a strangle-hold on the game with barely five minutes left. However, John Carlson took a feed from Backstrom and rifled a wrist shot past Halak with only 1:21 left in regulation to tie the game one more time.
If you were late getting back from the concession stand at the arena, or were slow to get your beer from the fridge at home, you probably missed the game-winner when Knuble fed Backstrom (not unlike their teaming up for a goal in Game 1) and Backstrom snapped the puck through the legs of defenseman Roman Hamrlik, over the glove of Halak, and off the crossbar into the net to send the crowd at Verizon Center into a frenzy 31 seconds into the extra frame. From a 4-1 deficit and what would surely be whispers of whether the Caps were choking on their heavily favored status, the series was tied, and the questions would be as much who the Canadiens would start in goal as who the Caps would start.
Other stuff…
-- The reason the Caps now have a goalie controversy is that Jose Theodore has given up goals on the last three shots he has faced in this series – the overtime winner in Game 1 and the first two shots he saw in this game. Semyon Varlamov relived him, and while he was not spectacular, he steadied the ship long enough to give the Caps a chance to crawl back into it.
-- This is the third time in franchise history that the Caps have come back from a three-goal deficit to win a playoff game. It also broke a six-game losing streak in home playoff games, dating back to when Todd Krygier ended Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals with a goal during the Caps Stanley Cup finals run in 1998.
-- How big was this? Tom Poti engaged in only the third fight of his career (first since2003-2004) and first ever in the playoffs.
-- The top line showed up tonight… Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Knuble were 4-5-9, plus-7, with 13 of the 37 shots on goal the Caps recorded.
-- The second line, though… Alexander Semin, Brendan Morrison, and Brooks Laich had no goals, no assists, and were a combined minus-2. Morrison played only two shifts in the third period, none after the 10:41 mark.
-- What is the upside for John Carlson? Remember, at this time last year he had not yet played a game as a professional (he would make his debut on May 2nd during the Hershey Bears’ Calder Cup run). Tonight he goes 1-1-2, plus-2 in 17 solid minutes.
-- Second straight year we’ve seen dueling hat tricks in a playoff game at Verizon Center. Andrei Kostitsyn got one for the Habs and had his own four-point night to match Backstrom and Ovechkin. But he had only one shot in the last 23 minutes (including overtime).
-- Have the Caps found Halak’s holes? One goal on the first 20 shots they took at Halak, five on their last 17. Or maybe the Caps just stopped playing from the perimeter and put bodies in front. Backstrom’s goal at the end of the second, Ovechkin’s in the early part of the third, Backstrom again from the doorstep. Shots goalies see, they stop. Make them move, crowd them, make them have to react quickly from in close, it’s not so easy. This isn’t rocket science.
-- Don’t forget the goal Eric Fehr scored on a break in the first period. If the Caps don’t get that goal, less than three minutes after the first Kostitsyn goal to put Montreal up 2-0, we are writing an entirely different entry for this game. And don’t forget about the pass that sprung him, as Tomas Fleischmann seemed to channel their days playing together in Hershey as he put the puck in space where Fehr could get it.
-- You had a feeling Ovechkin was locked in on this one after seeing that hit on Marc-Andre Bergeron on his first shift 43 seconds into the game. Then he smacked Benoit Pouliot nine seconds later.
-- Give Montreal credit though – 30 blocked shots is a rather amazing total. Fourteen different skaters had blocked shots for Montreal. Defensemen had 21 of those blocks.
-- Mike Green and Jeff Schultz had a difficult game, to say the least. The numbers don’t tell their story (although they were on the ice for four of the Canadiens’ five goals). They just looked discombobulated all night with pucks in their skates and what seemed to be a lack of awareness of where their partner was. Small wonder it was Tom Poti and John Carlson out there to start the overtime.
-- Jose Theodore had one of those games that are the nightmares from which goaltenders awaken in a cold sweat. Two goals on two shots (now three on the last three he faced). But who was the first guy to congratulate Semyon Varlamov while the guys were mobbing Nicklas Backstrom after the game-winner? -- Theodore. He might not get another minute in goal for the Caps, but he's a class act.
It wasn’t pretty, but we’re past style points and stat-padding now. The only thing that matters is the "W", and the Caps put their first one on the board tonight. At 6 o’clock, all the questions were about the Caps – too tight? Taking Montreal lightly? Not playing “the right way?” Now, the questions shift some to the Canadiens, especially their goaltending, which (let’s face it) was grim the last 25 minutes of this game. Carey Price might not get the start on Monday (it says here he will not), but he’d better be ready.
It’s a series again.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 2: Capitals vs. Canadiens
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Game 2
Caps Nation is in full freaking out mode… Was Umberger right? Are the coaches making mistakes? Is Ovechkin hurt/sick/possessed by demon spirits? Well, Caps fans, pour yourself a cup of calm down. Playoff series are not won in Game 1 (unless it’s a one-game series), and besides, we have it on unimpeachable authority that the Caps will do better tonight. Why? Well, our good friend Madame Lazora, seer to the stars, is here to provide a horoscopic reading of what will transpire in the hours ahead. Welcome Madame Lazora…
“I sense the tortured anguish of many lost souls screaming for release.”
No, no, Madame… that’s Caps fans. We’re looking to see what is in store for the players. Why don’t we start with the big guy. Do you see anything about Alex Ovechkin?
“Ah, Alex… I see that he is a…”
Virgo…
“That is right… I think you are perhaps a seer, no?”
Just a prognosticator, ma’am… about Alex.
“Ahh… I see that his friends and family will notice his positive frame of mind.”
His teammates?
“He will enjoy doing creative things with others today.”
Like scoring goals?
“There are many answers you have received but have not yet heard--listen. Focus your insights on discovery and not self-criticism.”
In other words, he’ll be focused, determined, click with teammates on lots of goals, right?
“Isn’t that what I said?”
OK, how about Alexander Semin?
“Ahh… I see that tremendous personal insight may come to him this Saturday. Any situation that seemed foggy or clouded in the past will become more clear and understandable now. This is a period of transformation for him and if he accepts the change, he can move into positive new directions. Doubts fade into the background and reserve is more and more a thing of the past. It is time for breaking out of a shell and letting himself be known. His destiny awaits him.”
Sounds like he might be changing lines tonight, and maybe it’ll be a signal for a big scoring night. How about Nicklas Backstrom?
“Ahh, a Sagittarius… General good feelings and a sense of support and harmony makes this a happy time.”
Sounds like just another night in Backstrom World. What about Bruce Boudreau?
“Ahh… for him this is a good time for surrounding himself with friends and young people and for having a good time. Through the end of the month, he will find the days are a little easier to maneuver through.”
You mean, as in winning a playoff series with a bunch of young hockey players?
“How should I know? You’re the prognosticator.”
OK, so let’s take a stab at that. For the Capitals, Game 2 in something of the canary in the coal mine of a playoff series. Thirteen times the Caps have won a Game 2 in a playoff series. In those 13 series the Caps have a series record of 7-6. In 17 series the Caps lost Game 2, and in those series they lost 13 times. Games 2 aren’t much in the showcase of memories, but losing this game would put the Caps in a serious hole, because there is this – the Caps have lost the first two games of a playoff series five times in franchise history. They lost four of those series, the only win coming last year against the Rangers.
Friday night was a night where order was restored to the hockey universe. All the teams who lost Game 1 of their respective series tied the series in Game 2. The stars are aligned, as it were, for the Caps tonight… So one last thing, Madame Lazora. What about Jaroslav Halak? Do you see anything in his future?
“Oh, this is troubling… I see that for him family chores can become quite tedious and boring. An occasional change of chores allows a little variety.”
As in, “getting pulled for Carey Price tonight?”
“You are a skilled prognosticator…”
Of course...
Caps 5 – Canadiens 2
horoscopes from dailyhoroscopes.com
Game 2
Caps Nation is in full freaking out mode… Was Umberger right? Are the coaches making mistakes? Is Ovechkin hurt/sick/possessed by demon spirits? Well, Caps fans, pour yourself a cup of calm down. Playoff series are not won in Game 1 (unless it’s a one-game series), and besides, we have it on unimpeachable authority that the Caps will do better tonight. Why? Well, our good friend Madame Lazora, seer to the stars, is here to provide a horoscopic reading of what will transpire in the hours ahead. Welcome Madame Lazora…
“I sense the tortured anguish of many lost souls screaming for release.”
No, no, Madame… that’s Caps fans. We’re looking to see what is in store for the players. Why don’t we start with the big guy. Do you see anything about Alex Ovechkin?
“Ah, Alex… I see that he is a…”
Virgo…
“That is right… I think you are perhaps a seer, no?”
Just a prognosticator, ma’am… about Alex.
“Ahh… I see that his friends and family will notice his positive frame of mind.”
His teammates?
“He will enjoy doing creative things with others today.”
Like scoring goals?
“There are many answers you have received but have not yet heard--listen. Focus your insights on discovery and not self-criticism.”
In other words, he’ll be focused, determined, click with teammates on lots of goals, right?
“Isn’t that what I said?”
OK, how about Alexander Semin?
“Ahh… I see that tremendous personal insight may come to him this Saturday. Any situation that seemed foggy or clouded in the past will become more clear and understandable now. This is a period of transformation for him and if he accepts the change, he can move into positive new directions. Doubts fade into the background and reserve is more and more a thing of the past. It is time for breaking out of a shell and letting himself be known. His destiny awaits him.”
Sounds like he might be changing lines tonight, and maybe it’ll be a signal for a big scoring night. How about Nicklas Backstrom?
“Ahh, a Sagittarius… General good feelings and a sense of support and harmony makes this a happy time.”
Sounds like just another night in Backstrom World. What about Bruce Boudreau?
“Ahh… for him this is a good time for surrounding himself with friends and young people and for having a good time. Through the end of the month, he will find the days are a little easier to maneuver through.”
You mean, as in winning a playoff series with a bunch of young hockey players?
“How should I know? You’re the prognosticator.”
OK, so let’s take a stab at that. For the Capitals, Game 2 in something of the canary in the coal mine of a playoff series. Thirteen times the Caps have won a Game 2 in a playoff series. In those 13 series the Caps have a series record of 7-6. In 17 series the Caps lost Game 2, and in those series they lost 13 times. Games 2 aren’t much in the showcase of memories, but losing this game would put the Caps in a serious hole, because there is this – the Caps have lost the first two games of a playoff series five times in franchise history. They lost four of those series, the only win coming last year against the Rangers.
Friday night was a night where order was restored to the hockey universe. All the teams who lost Game 1 of their respective series tied the series in Game 2. The stars are aligned, as it were, for the Caps tonight… So one last thing, Madame Lazora. What about Jaroslav Halak? Do you see anything in his future?
“Oh, this is troubling… I see that for him family chores can become quite tedious and boring. An occasional change of chores allows a little variety.”
As in, “getting pulled for Carey Price tonight?”
“You are a skilled prognosticator…”
Of course...
Caps 5 – Canadiens 2
horoscopes from dailyhoroscopes.com
Friday, April 16, 2010
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Canadiens 3 - Capitals 2 (OT)
But losing last night to the Montreal Canadiens in overtime, 3-2, was a punch right in the kisser. It was an odd game in many respects. If you look at the game statistics without knowing the score, you might guess that the Caps won this game by perhaps 4-1 or 5-2. They out-shot the Canadiens (47-38), out-hit them (37-24), blocked more shots (30-27), and owned the faceoff circle (45-26). How, then, did they lose? Or more to the point, how did they not run the Habs out of the rink?
Well, in the first period they almost did just that. In the first ten minutes they almost forechecked the Canadiens out onto Sixth Street, creating turnovers in the Montreal end and generally causing havoc with the Canadiens’ rhythm. But after outshooting Montreal 19-7 in the period and coming out only with a 1-1 tie at the first intermission, the rest of the game was like watching a balloon slowly deflate.
Montreal turned the tables in the second period, dominating play for what seemed minutes at a time, and their ability to make Washington work hard on defense against trios of cycling forwards appeared to take the legs out of the Caps. The Caps did comeback to get the better of play in the third period, but their inability to either put the Canadiens away after taking a lead, or holding onto that lead left the game to the fates of the hockey gods. And the gods smiled on the visitors in the 14th minute of overtime when Tomas Plekanec skated into the Caps’ zone, waited for Joe Corvo to back off, then rifled a wrist shot past goalie Jose Theodore to turn Verizon Center silent but for the whoops of joy from the Canadiens on the ice.
Other stuff…
-- No shots, no points. The best part of that is that it can’t get worse for Alex Ovechkin, who did not have a good game. By appearances, his night was one of wasted energy. A lot of churning, but to no particular purpose. He just looked very disorganized and not very focused last evening.
-- In fact, it was Ovechkin who might have been the key in the tying goal in the third period for Montreal. Scott Gomez took the puck behind his own net and started out of the zone with a head of steam. Ovechkin had Gomez lined up for a hit at the red line…
… Ovechkin only got air as Gomez continued on, drawing the other four Caps to him like moths to a flame and leaving Brian Gionta open on the right wing…
…those same Caps turned to Gionta, leaving Gomez a path to the net, where he tapped in a crossing feed before Mike Green could recover…
-- Tomas Fleischmann has a fairly broad repertoire of offensive talents. But it doesn’t appear that those gifts are translating into being a center at this level. He simply does not look sturdy enough in that role. Too often he was pushed off the play or manhandled in the faceoff circle (despite splitting his ten draws).
-- Montreal looked almost as if they were playing an odd variation of a box-and-one. Keep a spy on Ovechkin, use the other four players to clog the middle. The Caps certainly got pushed to the left side of the ice, where shots came from inside where Ovechkin spent a lot of his time – pushed out to the blue line by whichever Canadien defender was marking him…
-- If you had Eric Fehr and Mike Knuble leading the Caps in shots, you win the gold star. Bet those two would have been pretty low on the list of top shooters you would have picked before the game.
-- There is a bright spot for the Caps, as long as they persist… the majority of the 37 hits were not cheap. Frequently and persistently the Caps pounded and shrugged off Canadiens as if they were brushing lint off a suit jacket. And it came from a lot of unexpected places – Boyd Gordon had four hits, Nicklas Backstrom had four (and played with a not-often seen edge to his game), David Steckel had six, Mike Green had four and hardly looked like the deer-in-headlights that he became as the playoffs ground on last year. That kind of “tenderizing” is the kind of thing that can have a cumulative effect over a seven-game series. But they can’t let up.
-- Speaking of Green, eight blocked shots. Only Montreal’s Hal Gill had more (nine), and he’s supposed to be doing that.
-- Eric Belanger was 18-for-21 in the circle and was not on the ice for any of the three Montreal goals. Joe Corvo wrong-footed a floater past goalie Jaroslav Halak for a goal. Last night, George McPhee looked like a genius for getting these guys at the trading deadline.
-- John Carlson had a good game for this being his first NHL playoff game. But five giveaways and not pulling the trigger on a two-on-one late. Still a work in progress.
-- Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Jaroslav Halak was more often the former than the latter last night. He fought the puck a lot early, but the Caps could not get sticks on loose pucks. Even better chances they had were being shot wide. For goalies to “steal” a game, generally they have to make a few acrobatic saves or rob someone in a critical situation, in addition to making the saves he is supposed to make. We do not remember any particularly hard saves that he had to make. He was solid, but not spectacular.
-- Going 18-for-24 on faceoffs in the defensive zone takes a lot of heat off a goaltender. But it makes one wonder how it is that the Canadiens still got 38 shots on goal in the 74 minutes of play, including 31 in the last two periods and change.
-- We thought that giving Montreal chances on the power play would be a bigger factor than the Canadiens’ conversion rate. And there it was in the first period, taking a second penalty a few minutes after killing off one that gave the visitors that sliver of an opening that they used to their advantage.
-- There is an inconvenient truth about the Caps that they and their fans had better wake up to. Despite going 80-22-12 in almost three regular seasons at home under Bruce Boudreau, the Caps are now 6-7 in the 13 home playoff games they have played over the last three seasons. They have been outscored 35-33 in those games (that’s a 2.54 goals-per-game scoring average). Their power play is running at 17.6 percent, while their penalty killing is 76.5 percent. In short, they have been a bad home team in the playoffs. There is no other way to sugar-coat that, and it has to stop.
On Saturday.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Caps Playoff Quiz
In the good spirit of welcoming all the new Caps fans aboard for the Stanley Cup playoffs, The Peerless has scared up a quiz that young and old Caps fan alike can take to test their knowledge of Caps Stanley Cup playoff history.
Question 1. Billy Smith was…
A. Elvis Presley’s first cousin
B. A New York Islanders goalie with a reputation for orneriness and a quick stick
C. An English footballer
D. A painting
E. All of the Above
2. Bob Gould was…
A. The player who scored the first playoff goal in Caps history
B. The player who scored the most shorthanded goals in a single playoff series for the Caps
C. Once a member of the Atlanta Flames
D. Once fought Mario Lemieux and ended the fight with one-punch.
E. All of the above
3. Pat Lafontaine was…
A. A 1950’s crooner famous on the Lawrence Welk Show
B. A former New York Islander who ended a four-overtime game against the Caps with a game-winning goal
C. A three-year old who finished sixth in the 1974 Kentucky Derby
D. A famous voice-over artist who made more than 5,000 film trailers
E. All of the above
4. Larry Murphy was…
A. A Hall-of-Fame defenseman
B. On four Stanley Cup-winning teams in the 1990’s, the only player in the NHL to accomplish the feat
C. A Caps defenseman remembered long after his departure, every time an opposing player is "whooped” on the ice.
D. The player who sprung Dale Hunter free for the playoff series-clinching overtime goal against the Philadelphia Flyers in 1988
E. All of the Above
5. Jim Schoenfeld was…
A. Famous for arguing with referee Don Koharski after a playoff game (while coaching the New Jersey Devils), and after Koharski fell down (or was pushed), telling the referee, "Good, 'cause you fell, you fat pig! Have another doughnut! Have another doughnut!"
B. The only Caps coach to win over the Pittsburgh Penguins in a playoff series.
C. A record artist
D. Once the NHL leader with a plus-minus of plus-60
E. All of the Above
6. John Druce was…
A. A player who scored 14 goals in 15 playoff games in one playoff year for the Caps
B. A player who tied a record for goals scored in a playoff series
C. A member of the last Winnipeg Jets team that had a winning record
D. Dale Hunter's roomate on the road
E. All of the Above
7. “Choking Dogs” refers to…
A. The artists who recorded “Take the Caps to the Cup” in 1987
B. A term of affection bestowed on the Caps by Washington Post columnist Tony Kornheiser
C. A film short by Quentin Tarantino
D. A defensive scheme developed by Ron Wilson to try to slow down the Detroit Red Wings in the 1998 Stanley Cup final
E. All of the Above
8. Bryan Murray was…
A. The first Jack Adams Award winner in Caps history (for outstanding coach)
B. The winningest coach in Caps history
C. Named coach of the Caps in midseason, stepping up from the Hershey Bears of the AHL
D. Replaced himself as coach in midseason by his brother
E. All of the Above
9. Five Caps players have worn sweater numbers in the “90’s”. One never appeared in a playoff series for the Caps. Who is it?
A. Joe Juneau
B. Sergei Fedorov
C. Rich Tocchet
D. Sergei Berezin
E. Phil Housley
10. Olie Kolzig holds the Caps record for most playoff game appearances in a season (21, in 1998). Who is second among Caps goaltenders?
A. Pete Peeters
B. Don Beaupre
C. Semyon Varlamov
D. Jim Carey
E. Al Jensen
1. E, All of the Above. But Billy Smith WAS a goaltender for the Islanders who had a 9-3 record in playoff games against the Caps.
2. E, All of the Above. First goal in the 1983 playoff series against the Islanders, two shorthanded goals against the Flyers in 1988, he played one game for the Atlanta Flames before they moved to Calgary, and yes, he did end Mario Lemieux’ night on March 20, 1987.
3. B. Pat Lafontaine ended the 1987 playoff for the Caps by scoring a goal off the post in the fourth overtime on Easter Sunday morning; the Islanders won the series, 4-3. Oh, and Don LaFontaine was the voice-over artist.
4. E, All of the Above. Murphy is in the Hall of Fame, he won two Cups in Pittsburgh and two in Detroit (none with the Caps), he was the first player “whooped” at Caps home games whenever took possession of the puck, and he was the player who sprung Dale Hunter free for the most famous call in Caps history by play-by-play announcer Mike Fornes… “…Murphy starts the rush… he hits Hunter…he’s in alone…a shot…and a GOAL!!!!!"
5. E, All of the Above. The doughnut moment might be Schoenfeld’s most famous in his hockey career, but he did coach the Caps to their only series win over Pittsburgh (1994), did in fact record two albums (“Schony” and “The Key is Love”), and led the NHL in plus-minus in 1979-1980 as a defenseman with the Buffalo Sabres.
6. A, B, and C. Druce scored 14 goals in 15 games in the 1990 Stanley Cup playoffs; his nine goals in the series against the Rangers that season tied a record held at the time by Jari Kurri (Edmonton) and Tim Kerr (Philadelphia), and he was a member of the last Winnipeg Jets team with a winning record (playing 50 games for the 1992-1993 Jets). As for the rooming with Dale Hunter, we have no idea.
7. B. Every spring, it seemed, when the cherry blossoms fell from the trees, and the Caps fell out of the playoffs in the 1980’s, Tony would be there to resurrect his “choking dogs” label for the Caps.
8. E, All of the Above. Murray won the Jack Adams in 1984, his 343 wins is tops in Caps history, did assume the duties as head coach of the Caps in 1981 after coaching the Bears to start the 1981-1982 season (where he was AHL Coach of the Year the previous season), and he was replaced by his brother Terry as coach of the Caps in 1990.
9. C, Rick Tocchet. Tocchet played in 13 games for the Caps in the 1996-1997 seaason, but the Caps did not make the playoffs that year.
10. C, Semyon Varlamov (13, last year). We don’t much care if that record gets broken this year, just so long as a Caps goalie gets 16 wins.
Question 1. Billy Smith was…
A. Elvis Presley’s first cousin
B. A New York Islanders goalie with a reputation for orneriness and a quick stick
C. An English footballer
D. A painting
E. All of the Above
2. Bob Gould was…
A. The player who scored the first playoff goal in Caps history
B. The player who scored the most shorthanded goals in a single playoff series for the Caps
C. Once a member of the Atlanta Flames
D. Once fought Mario Lemieux and ended the fight with one-punch.
E. All of the above
3. Pat Lafontaine was…
A. A 1950’s crooner famous on the Lawrence Welk Show
B. A former New York Islander who ended a four-overtime game against the Caps with a game-winning goal
C. A three-year old who finished sixth in the 1974 Kentucky Derby
D. A famous voice-over artist who made more than 5,000 film trailers
E. All of the above
4. Larry Murphy was…
A. A Hall-of-Fame defenseman
B. On four Stanley Cup-winning teams in the 1990’s, the only player in the NHL to accomplish the feat
C. A Caps defenseman remembered long after his departure, every time an opposing player is "whooped” on the ice.
D. The player who sprung Dale Hunter free for the playoff series-clinching overtime goal against the Philadelphia Flyers in 1988
E. All of the Above
5. Jim Schoenfeld was…
A. Famous for arguing with referee Don Koharski after a playoff game (while coaching the New Jersey Devils), and after Koharski fell down (or was pushed), telling the referee, "Good, 'cause you fell, you fat pig! Have another doughnut! Have another doughnut!"
B. The only Caps coach to win over the Pittsburgh Penguins in a playoff series.
C. A record artist
D. Once the NHL leader with a plus-minus of plus-60
E. All of the Above
6. John Druce was…
A. A player who scored 14 goals in 15 playoff games in one playoff year for the Caps
B. A player who tied a record for goals scored in a playoff series
C. A member of the last Winnipeg Jets team that had a winning record
D. Dale Hunter's roomate on the road
E. All of the Above
7. “Choking Dogs” refers to…
A. The artists who recorded “Take the Caps to the Cup” in 1987
B. A term of affection bestowed on the Caps by Washington Post columnist Tony Kornheiser
C. A film short by Quentin Tarantino
D. A defensive scheme developed by Ron Wilson to try to slow down the Detroit Red Wings in the 1998 Stanley Cup final
E. All of the Above
8. Bryan Murray was…
A. The first Jack Adams Award winner in Caps history (for outstanding coach)
B. The winningest coach in Caps history
C. Named coach of the Caps in midseason, stepping up from the Hershey Bears of the AHL
D. Replaced himself as coach in midseason by his brother
E. All of the Above
9. Five Caps players have worn sweater numbers in the “90’s”. One never appeared in a playoff series for the Caps. Who is it?
A. Joe Juneau
B. Sergei Fedorov
C. Rich Tocchet
D. Sergei Berezin
E. Phil Housley
10. Olie Kolzig holds the Caps record for most playoff game appearances in a season (21, in 1998). Who is second among Caps goaltenders?
A. Pete Peeters
B. Don Beaupre
C. Semyon Varlamov
D. Jim Carey
E. Al Jensen
1. E, All of the Above. But Billy Smith WAS a goaltender for the Islanders who had a 9-3 record in playoff games against the Caps.
2. E, All of the Above. First goal in the 1983 playoff series against the Islanders, two shorthanded goals against the Flyers in 1988, he played one game for the Atlanta Flames before they moved to Calgary, and yes, he did end Mario Lemieux’ night on March 20, 1987.
3. B. Pat Lafontaine ended the 1987 playoff for the Caps by scoring a goal off the post in the fourth overtime on Easter Sunday morning; the Islanders won the series, 4-3. Oh, and Don LaFontaine was the voice-over artist.
4. E, All of the Above. Murphy is in the Hall of Fame, he won two Cups in Pittsburgh and two in Detroit (none with the Caps), he was the first player “whooped” at Caps home games whenever took possession of the puck, and he was the player who sprung Dale Hunter free for the most famous call in Caps history by play-by-play announcer Mike Fornes… “…Murphy starts the rush… he hits Hunter…he’s in alone…a shot…and a GOAL!!!!!"
5. E, All of the Above. The doughnut moment might be Schoenfeld’s most famous in his hockey career, but he did coach the Caps to their only series win over Pittsburgh (1994), did in fact record two albums (“Schony” and “The Key is Love”), and led the NHL in plus-minus in 1979-1980 as a defenseman with the Buffalo Sabres.
6. A, B, and C. Druce scored 14 goals in 15 games in the 1990 Stanley Cup playoffs; his nine goals in the series against the Rangers that season tied a record held at the time by Jari Kurri (Edmonton) and Tim Kerr (Philadelphia), and he was a member of the last Winnipeg Jets team with a winning record (playing 50 games for the 1992-1993 Jets). As for the rooming with Dale Hunter, we have no idea.
7. B. Every spring, it seemed, when the cherry blossoms fell from the trees, and the Caps fell out of the playoffs in the 1980’s, Tony would be there to resurrect his “choking dogs” label for the Caps.
8. E, All of the Above. Murray won the Jack Adams in 1984, his 343 wins is tops in Caps history, did assume the duties as head coach of the Caps in 1981 after coaching the Bears to start the 1981-1982 season (where he was AHL Coach of the Year the previous season), and he was replaced by his brother Terry as coach of the Caps in 1990.
9. C, Rick Tocchet. Tocchet played in 13 games for the Caps in the 1996-1997 seaason, but the Caps did not make the playoffs that year.
10. C, Semyon Varlamov (13, last year). We don’t much care if that record gets broken this year, just so long as a Caps goalie gets 16 wins.
Sittin' at the end of the bar...
-- Three of four games won by the road (read: lower seeded) team last night… convenient warning sign for the Caps to ponder going into tonight’s game. You fight for 82 games to get home ice advantage, you can lose it in 60 minutes.
-- Think a defenseman with offensive skill is a luxury? Look at the New Jersey Devils with six forwards on the ice at the end of last night’s game against the Flyers.
-- The hockey gods are a fickle bunch… Craig Adams, who has yet to score a regular season goal for Pittsburgh, gets his fourth playoff goal in 25 post-season games for the Penguins. Then the gods left an edge showing on the boards behind Marc-Andre Fleury that knocked a hard around back out in front of the net. Fleury was behind the cage looking to cut off the dump-in. Chris Kelly says, “thank you, hockey gods.”
-- Brian Boucher… no playoff wins since 2000, 0-4, 2.56, .895 in seven playoff games since. Stops 23 of 24 shots in a hostile rink to steal Game 1. Well, it’s early.
-- The Flyers had 24 shot attempts last night. I will repeat that… the Flyers had 24 shot attempts last night. Not 24 shots. Not 24 shot attempts in the first period. 24 shot attempts… for the game… over 60 minutes. No Flyer had more than two shots on goal.
-- There were two goaltender interference calls made last night – one in Phoenix, one in New Jersey, both against the home team. Maybe there is something to this paying attention to running the goaltender. Well, it’s early.
-- Last night’s theme… “Rise of the No-Name.” Mike Richards got a game-winning goal (you’ve heard of him). But the others were scored by Chris Stewart, Derek Morris, and Jarkko Ruutu.
-- Speaking of grinders (no, not the sandwich)… Ruutu, Chris Neil, and Chris Kelly were 3-3-6, plus-6.
-- And Morris… 1-2-3 for the night? He was 1-3-4 for the 18 regular season games he played for Phoenix. Well, it’s early.
-- Sidney Crosby finished the game upright and with three assists, and didn’t get a star in his own rink? Huh…
-- OK, we get giving Craig Anderson, Ryan Clowe (sort of), and Scott Hannan stars in the Colorado/San Jose game, but Paul Stastny should get a slice o’ pie… 20-plus minutes, two assists, plus-1, a blocked shot, and he took 24 of the 53 total draws for Colorado, winning 14 of them.
-- Ilya Kovalchuk was the most dangerous man on the ice in the first period of the Devils/Flyers game, but he finished with ten shot attempts, four shots on goal, no points, and a bit of an embarrassing face-plant in the third period as he was rushing into the Flyers’ zone with the puck. Trying to do too much?
-- Chris Pronger didn’t do anything stupid. Ditto Daniel Carcillo…
Well, it’s early.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
About that 120-point thing...
120 points has been reached or eclipsed seven times in NHL history before the Caps hit 121 points this season. Wonder how the contestants fared?
1971 - Boston (57-14-7, 121 pts): lost in first round
1973 - Montreal (52-10-16, 120 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1976 - Montreal (58-11-11, 127 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1977 - Montreal (60-8-12, 132 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1978 - Montreal (59-10-11, 129 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1996 - Detroit (62-13-7, 131 pts): lost in conference final
2006 - Detroit (58-16-8, 124 pts): lost in first round
2010 - Washington (54-15-13, 121 pts): ???
That's why they play the games.
1971 - Boston (57-14-7, 121 pts): lost in first round
1973 - Montreal (52-10-16, 120 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1976 - Montreal (58-11-11, 127 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1977 - Montreal (60-8-12, 132 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1978 - Montreal (59-10-11, 129 pts): WON STANLEY CUP
1996 - Detroit (62-13-7, 131 pts): lost in conference final
2006 - Detroit (58-16-8, 124 pts): lost in first round
2010 - Washington (54-15-13, 121 pts): ???
That's why they play the games.
Mission Statement
You might argue that this is getting ahead of oneself. On the other hand, see where you want to go, and get there. In any case, thanks to the wizardry of Google search stories, we offer you this little clip...
or just head here...
or just head here...
Your Eastern Conference Prognostos for Round One: Penguins (4) vs. Senators (5)
Last, but not least, the fourth matchup in Eastern Conference side of the first round…
Pittsburgh (4) vs. Ottawa (5)
Series…
Game 1 (Oct 12/@OTT): Penguins 4 – Senators 1
Game 2 (Nov. 19/@OTT): Senators 6 – Penguins 2
Game 3 (Dec. 23/@PIT): Penguins 8 – Senators 2
Game 4 (Jan. 28/@PIT): Senators 4 – Penguins 1
Why the Penguins will win... Nothing beats experience. Add in the fact that the Penguins have more high-end skill, and that is a combination the Ottawa will find it difficult to overcome. Nowhere is the experience difference greater than in the most important position on the ice. Marc-Andre Fleury has 49 games of NHL playoff experience (31 wins), the last two years having gone to the Stanley Cup final. At the other end of the ice, Brian Elliott doesn’t have so much as a playoff minute of experience as a pro, either in the AHL or NHL. Then there is the matter of playing against a weakness. The Penguins’ difficulties on the power play have persisted over the past two years (17.2 percent, 19th in the league this year). Ottawa is similarly challenged on the power play (16.9 percent, ranked 21st). Those could very well cancel one another out. But there is a significant disparity between these teams at 5-on-5. The Penguins rank ninth in the league (1.07 5-on-5 ratio), while the Senators rank 26th (0.88). The Penguins are much more potent down the middle, where teams have to be strong to succeed. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have combined for 79 goals and 186 points this year (in 148 man-games), while Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher have combined for 48 goals and 110 points (in 139 man-games). But their advantage extends to Jordan Staal, a potential Selke candidate as best defensive forward who also chipped in 21 goals and 49 points. On the other side, the Senators will have to cope with the loss of Alex Kovalev. Before going down with a knee injury, Kovalev struggled (one goal and one assist in his previous 17 games), but he is one of, if not the best pure offensive talent still on that club.
Why the Senators will win... Pittsburgh is coming into this series not looking quite right. They stumbled to the finish, going 7-6-3 in their last 16 games, and it got worse as the end of the season came closer. In their last five games they allowed 18 goals, and in their last three allowed a whopping 25 power play opportunities (they allowed only three goals, but going that many minutes a man down saps energy and prevents flow). Then there is this strange statistic. In the last five games of the season, the Penguins scored 20 goals. Sidney Crosby had a hand in 15 of them (4-11-15). That Crosby assumed a larger offensive burden this year is true. He has done it because he has had to, a product of Malkin missing 15 games and weak play from the Penguin wingers. But that much offense going through one player is not a recipe for success in the playoffs, no matter how gifted the talent. And Ottawa has better defensemen to deploy than do the Penguins. Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov will likely be spending a lot of time with “87” in their sights. And the Senators might be catching Fleury at less than his best. Since shutting out Boston on March 18th, he is 4-3-2 in ten appearances, giving up at least three goals in seven of those appearances.
Players to watch… for the Senators, Milan Michalek. The winger started the season on fire with 15 goals in his first 25 games, but had only seven in his last 41 games. If Ottawa is going to win, they are going to have to get contributions from Michalek at the offensive end of the ice. For the Penguins, Evgeni Malkin. He is coming into the playoffs on a run with five goals in his last five games. He has to continue the pace to take the heat off Crosby. Having both players clicking poses uncommonly difficult matchup problems for opponents.
In the end... The Penguins have too much skill and too much talent where it matters to let this series slip away. They have been shaky enough (especially in goal) to allow this series to have some interesting moments. The Senators simply have too many unknowns, especially with respect to how goalie Brian Elliott is going to respond in his first NHL playoff action against the defending Stanley Cup champions.
Pittsburgh in five
Pittsburgh (4) vs. Ottawa (5)
Series…
Game 1 (Oct 12/@OTT): Penguins 4 – Senators 1
Game 2 (Nov. 19/@OTT): Senators 6 – Penguins 2
Game 3 (Dec. 23/@PIT): Penguins 8 – Senators 2
Game 4 (Jan. 28/@PIT): Senators 4 – Penguins 1
Why the Penguins will win... Nothing beats experience. Add in the fact that the Penguins have more high-end skill, and that is a combination the Ottawa will find it difficult to overcome. Nowhere is the experience difference greater than in the most important position on the ice. Marc-Andre Fleury has 49 games of NHL playoff experience (31 wins), the last two years having gone to the Stanley Cup final. At the other end of the ice, Brian Elliott doesn’t have so much as a playoff minute of experience as a pro, either in the AHL or NHL. Then there is the matter of playing against a weakness. The Penguins’ difficulties on the power play have persisted over the past two years (17.2 percent, 19th in the league this year). Ottawa is similarly challenged on the power play (16.9 percent, ranked 21st). Those could very well cancel one another out. But there is a significant disparity between these teams at 5-on-5. The Penguins rank ninth in the league (1.07 5-on-5 ratio), while the Senators rank 26th (0.88). The Penguins are much more potent down the middle, where teams have to be strong to succeed. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have combined for 79 goals and 186 points this year (in 148 man-games), while Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher have combined for 48 goals and 110 points (in 139 man-games). But their advantage extends to Jordan Staal, a potential Selke candidate as best defensive forward who also chipped in 21 goals and 49 points. On the other side, the Senators will have to cope with the loss of Alex Kovalev. Before going down with a knee injury, Kovalev struggled (one goal and one assist in his previous 17 games), but he is one of, if not the best pure offensive talent still on that club.
Why the Senators will win... Pittsburgh is coming into this series not looking quite right. They stumbled to the finish, going 7-6-3 in their last 16 games, and it got worse as the end of the season came closer. In their last five games they allowed 18 goals, and in their last three allowed a whopping 25 power play opportunities (they allowed only three goals, but going that many minutes a man down saps energy and prevents flow). Then there is this strange statistic. In the last five games of the season, the Penguins scored 20 goals. Sidney Crosby had a hand in 15 of them (4-11-15). That Crosby assumed a larger offensive burden this year is true. He has done it because he has had to, a product of Malkin missing 15 games and weak play from the Penguin wingers. But that much offense going through one player is not a recipe for success in the playoffs, no matter how gifted the talent. And Ottawa has better defensemen to deploy than do the Penguins. Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov will likely be spending a lot of time with “87” in their sights. And the Senators might be catching Fleury at less than his best. Since shutting out Boston on March 18th, he is 4-3-2 in ten appearances, giving up at least three goals in seven of those appearances.
Players to watch… for the Senators, Milan Michalek. The winger started the season on fire with 15 goals in his first 25 games, but had only seven in his last 41 games. If Ottawa is going to win, they are going to have to get contributions from Michalek at the offensive end of the ice. For the Penguins, Evgeni Malkin. He is coming into the playoffs on a run with five goals in his last five games. He has to continue the pace to take the heat off Crosby. Having both players clicking poses uncommonly difficult matchup problems for opponents.
In the end... The Penguins have too much skill and too much talent where it matters to let this series slip away. They have been shaky enough (especially in goal) to allow this series to have some interesting moments. The Senators simply have too many unknowns, especially with respect to how goalie Brian Elliott is going to respond in his first NHL playoff action against the defending Stanley Cup champions.
Pittsburgh in five
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinal: Caps vs. Canadiens
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
We are LIVE at Peerless Central, surveying the landscape, searching every corner, scouring the fine grains of sand that are the bits of information that will lead this prognosticator to provide YOU, the discerning reader with the only pick you will need as the Caps begin their journey, their expedition, their quest, if you will, that hopefully will end this June with a Stanley Cup and a half-day off of work for Caps fans to attend a parade in downtown Washington.
The quest begins on Thursday when the Caps meet the Montreal Canadiens in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinal round. The Caps are the consensus pick to make quick work of the Canadiens, a team they finished 33 points ahead of in the regular season. These teams are separated by more than just a one versus eight seed. And we’ll take a look at a few reasons why.
Special teams… The summary also indicates that Montreal, for all the ink devoted to its formidable power play, struggles at home with the man advantage (24th in the league). If anything, this is weakness matched against weakness – a weak home power play for Montreal against the weak road penalty kill for the Caps. And while the Canadiens have the top road power play in the league this season at 28.3%, it will be matched against a penalty kill that is respectable enough at home in Washington’s (83.2%, 14th in the league). Montreal’s advantages on special teams, while they seem rather substantial overall, don’t look quite so when broken down into their home and road segments.
But where the special teams battle, and the series, could turn is in power play opportunities. The Caps penalty kill is what it is. Overall it is iffy (to be charitable about it), although it is at least respectable at home. When a team has a penalty kill as undistinguished as that of the Caps, the key is in limiting opportunities. And in that, keep this in mind. When allowing the opponent three or fewer power plays, the Caps are 29-13 (overtime and shootout losses counting as losses). But since the first of the year they are 19-5 in those situations.
The Montreal power play in this series might be the single most overblown topic of discussion. The Montreal power play is very efficient. Almost as efficient as the Caps’ power play. But that is, if you will, an “output” measure. Games turn on “outcomes,” and for purposes of athletic competition, the relevant outcome here is “goals.” The fact is, no team scored more power play goals than the Caps at 5-on-4 (69), and no team scored more power play goals than the Caps at 5-on-3 (eight). The Caps scored 22 more power play goals than did the Canadiens this season. If the Caps can limit Montreal’s opportunities on the power play (the Canadiens were 16-17-5 in games in which they had three or fewer opportunities), a low penalty kill rate will not, for lack of a better term, “kill” them. It won’t be the penalty killing rate that will be the barometer as much as the shorthanded situations the Caps have to face.
Full and even strength… Another way to put this is, the Caps have to keep the Canadiens from getting multiple power play goals scored in games. Limiting the Habs to something equal to or less than one a game is likely to be fatal to the Canadiens. Why? Because no team in the NHL has scored fewer goals at 5-on-5 this season. Dead last… against the team that finished first in 5-on-5 goals scored. In fact, the goal differential here is virtually a goal a game (+0.99) in favor of the Caps. And Montreal cannot count on defensive performance at 5-on-5 to balance this disparity out, since the Caps have allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 (136 versus 146).
If there is something that the Caps are going to want to avoid, it is a familiar frustration to Caps fans – four-on-four situations. The Canadiens finished the season a plus-7 (11 goals for, four against) in such situations, while the Caps finished minus-8 (five goals for, 13 against). The power play efficiency, the four-on-four advantage… it is evidence of a team that is small and quick, able to take advantage of situations in which there is more open ice. The key here is don’t give the Canadiens those kinds of open ice opportunities.
The series… The Canadiens and Capitals each won two games in this series. Three of the games were decided by one goal, two of them in extra time. The other game, although a two-goal decision, was a one-goal game until Alexander Semin scored a goal with 2:02 remaining for the final 4-2 margin in favor of the Capitals. These teams have played things close. Here is a look at the four games…
Yes, the teams have split 14 goals, but how they got there is a snapshot of the advantages and the problems the Caps might have in this series. First, as Bruce Boudreau has already commented, “They've killed us on [the power play]. They move the puck, they shoot and they go to the net. Hopefully we'll be able to stay out of the box." In the four-game series, they were just unsuccessful enough at that, allowing the Canadiens 14 power play opportunities (3.5 a game), with which Montreal scored five power play goals (35.7 percent). Meanwhile, the Caps were outscoring the Canadiens 11-9 at even strength and were unleashing at least 34 shots on goal in three of the four games (they lost two of them).
Goaltenders… The odd thing about this series is that the goaltenders that played the lion’s share of minutes for their respective teams will not be the principals in this series. Carey Price got the call in all four contests. Jaroslav Halak, who gets the nod for Game 1, did not play a single minute in any of the four games. Jose Theodore played grand total of 37 minutes over the four games, but was named on Tuesday as the Game 1 starter for the Caps.
Halak will bring a career record of 3-2-0, 2.60, .905 against the Caps into this series. He has a total of 97 minutes of playoff experience spread over three games and lost the only playoff start he has. Theodore is 2-1-1, 4.09, .877 against Montreal for his career. He also has 49 games of playoff experience (19-27, 2.79, .912, and one shutout), having not lost a first round series in four trips as the number one goalie. The ominous fact about Halak coming into this series is that after shutting out Philadelphia and Buffalo in consecutive starts he allowed 11 in three games against teams that finished no better than 11th in the Eastern Conference. He is about to step up against an opponent several notches higher in weight class.
Caps forwards vs. Montreal defense… It is one thing to have three 25-plus goal scorers on the top line, as the Caps do, but the depth the Caps have is such that they have three 15-plus goal scorers (full year) on what could be their third line of Tomas Fleischmann (23), Eric Belanger (15 with Minnesota and Washington), and Jason Chimera (15 with Columbus and Washington). You can probably pencil in Andrei Markov for the minutes Montreal will need against the Backstrom line, paired with Marc-Andre Bergeron (at least according to a Canadian Press report). Both are big point producers in their own right, especially on the power play, but Bergeron is sixth among the club’s defensemen (40 games minimum) in plus-minus. Given the Caps strengths at 5-on-5, he has to show an ability to hold his own in that aspect.
The second pair for Montreal – Roman Hamrlik and Jaroslav Spacek – are experienced (more than 2,000 regular seasons between them), but the flip side of that is both are 36 years old. How they match up against the Caps’ offensive push, whether against the second or third line, might be the 5-on-5 fault line that breaks for the Caps. The Caps aren’t likely to intimidate this group by forechecking them into a lot of mistakes, but there might be concerns about the Canadien defensemen’s ability to keep up with the Caps transition game. Montreal forwards are going to have to provide a lot of support to slow the Caps down in neutral zone ice.
Montreal forwards vs. Washington defense… Montreal is not going to ice a lot of size on the top two lines of forwards. Benoit Pouliot is 6’3”, but he is a lanky sort. Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta round out that line, neither standing taller than six feet, and Gomez barely hits the 200 pound mark. The Tomas Plekanec – Mike Cammalleri – Andrei Kostitsyn line doesn’t’ bring much size, either. So, they have to take advantage of quickness against a Caps defense that will ice no one shorter than six feet and not less than 200 pounds. Plekanec, Gomez, Gionta, and Cammalleri also comprise the Canadiens’ top power play scoring forwards (all with at least 15 points), another indicator of the advantages of small, quick forwards on a more open ice surface. It is an advantage that Montreal can exploit to the extent the Caps permit it by taking too many penalties. But here is something the Habs are going to miss that is overlooked in all this power play talk. Of the 57 power play goals that Montreal has this season, Glen Metropolit has ten of them, and he is out with a shoulder injury.
Players you expect to do well… and have to:
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
Let’s face it. As deep and as talented as the Caps are, the bullseye is on Ovechkin. As much as his production, he has to lead by example in his effort at both ends of the ice. He has made great strides this year in improving his two way play, but this series begins what is really the final exam in that regard.
Montreal: Scott Gomez
Gomez has two goals since the Olympic break, none in his last 14 games. He has a total of six points (all assists) in his last ten games. He is the second-leading scorer for the Canadiens, but his 12 goals for the season is his lowest level since the 2001-2002 season, his third in the league, and a far cry from the 33 he had in 2005-2006. Caps fans will be hoping he remains quiet in that regard. If he is, Montreal doesn’t have much of a chance of outscoring the Caps.
Players you might not think about… but should:
Washington: David Steckel
Little things get magnified in the playoffs, and one of the things that will bear watching is how well Steckel does in draws, especially in the defensive zone, and particularly against the Montreal power play. If the Caps present the Canadiens with power play opportunities, they have to take precious seconds away by getting possession of the puck and clearing it.
Montreal: Maxim Lapierre
Lapierre is not a stranger to some of the Caps. He was an important cog in the Hamilton Bulldogs’ win over the Hershey Bears in the 2007 Calder Cup final, when the Bears dressed the likes of Jeff Schultz, Tomas Fleischmann, David Steckel, and Mike Green. Lapierre is a somewhat abrasive sort that is perhaps best equipped to get the Caps off their game. Oh, let’s just say it… he’s a pain in the ass.
There are more than a few observers who think this series will not last long. Well, let’s think this through and remember which franchise we’re talking about here. The Caps have won nine seven-game series in franchise history. Never have they swept one. Only twice did the series go only five games. There are no sure things when it comes to the Caps, but in the end Montreal is coming into the series with a hope (that they get a lot of power play chances) and a prayer (that Halak finds his inner Dryden). It will not be nearly enough against a team with many more weapons.
Caps in five
We are LIVE at Peerless Central, surveying the landscape, searching every corner, scouring the fine grains of sand that are the bits of information that will lead this prognosticator to provide YOU, the discerning reader with the only pick you will need as the Caps begin their journey, their expedition, their quest, if you will, that hopefully will end this June with a Stanley Cup and a half-day off of work for Caps fans to attend a parade in downtown Washington.
The quest begins on Thursday when the Caps meet the Montreal Canadiens in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinal round. The Caps are the consensus pick to make quick work of the Canadiens, a team they finished 33 points ahead of in the regular season. These teams are separated by more than just a one versus eight seed. And we’ll take a look at a few reasons why.
The view descending from 30,000 feet… The overall numbers look like this…
The Caps have the largest goal differential per game of any club in the NHL (+1.05). That differential is more than a quarter of a goal better than the second place team in the league, and that team is not Montreal (it’s Chicago, at +0.72). Montreal finished the season with a goal differential of -0.10, which is only seventh best among the eight teams in the Eastern Conference playoff draw (Ottawa is eighth). The differences persist as you break the game into periods, as the summary below indicates…
Special teams… The summary also indicates that Montreal, for all the ink devoted to its formidable power play, struggles at home with the man advantage (24th in the league). If anything, this is weakness matched against weakness – a weak home power play for Montreal against the weak road penalty kill for the Caps. And while the Canadiens have the top road power play in the league this season at 28.3%, it will be matched against a penalty kill that is respectable enough at home in Washington’s (83.2%, 14th in the league). Montreal’s advantages on special teams, while they seem rather substantial overall, don’t look quite so when broken down into their home and road segments.
But where the special teams battle, and the series, could turn is in power play opportunities. The Caps penalty kill is what it is. Overall it is iffy (to be charitable about it), although it is at least respectable at home. When a team has a penalty kill as undistinguished as that of the Caps, the key is in limiting opportunities. And in that, keep this in mind. When allowing the opponent three or fewer power plays, the Caps are 29-13 (overtime and shootout losses counting as losses). But since the first of the year they are 19-5 in those situations.
The Montreal power play in this series might be the single most overblown topic of discussion. The Montreal power play is very efficient. Almost as efficient as the Caps’ power play. But that is, if you will, an “output” measure. Games turn on “outcomes,” and for purposes of athletic competition, the relevant outcome here is “goals.” The fact is, no team scored more power play goals than the Caps at 5-on-4 (69), and no team scored more power play goals than the Caps at 5-on-3 (eight). The Caps scored 22 more power play goals than did the Canadiens this season. If the Caps can limit Montreal’s opportunities on the power play (the Canadiens were 16-17-5 in games in which they had three or fewer opportunities), a low penalty kill rate will not, for lack of a better term, “kill” them. It won’t be the penalty killing rate that will be the barometer as much as the shorthanded situations the Caps have to face.
Full and even strength… Another way to put this is, the Caps have to keep the Canadiens from getting multiple power play goals scored in games. Limiting the Habs to something equal to or less than one a game is likely to be fatal to the Canadiens. Why? Because no team in the NHL has scored fewer goals at 5-on-5 this season. Dead last… against the team that finished first in 5-on-5 goals scored. In fact, the goal differential here is virtually a goal a game (+0.99) in favor of the Caps. And Montreal cannot count on defensive performance at 5-on-5 to balance this disparity out, since the Caps have allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 (136 versus 146).
If there is something that the Caps are going to want to avoid, it is a familiar frustration to Caps fans – four-on-four situations. The Canadiens finished the season a plus-7 (11 goals for, four against) in such situations, while the Caps finished minus-8 (five goals for, 13 against). The power play efficiency, the four-on-four advantage… it is evidence of a team that is small and quick, able to take advantage of situations in which there is more open ice. The key here is don’t give the Canadiens those kinds of open ice opportunities.
The series… The Canadiens and Capitals each won two games in this series. Three of the games were decided by one goal, two of them in extra time. The other game, although a two-goal decision, was a one-goal game until Alexander Semin scored a goal with 2:02 remaining for the final 4-2 margin in favor of the Capitals. These teams have played things close. Here is a look at the four games…
Yes, the teams have split 14 goals, but how they got there is a snapshot of the advantages and the problems the Caps might have in this series. First, as Bruce Boudreau has already commented, “They've killed us on [the power play]. They move the puck, they shoot and they go to the net. Hopefully we'll be able to stay out of the box." In the four-game series, they were just unsuccessful enough at that, allowing the Canadiens 14 power play opportunities (3.5 a game), with which Montreal scored five power play goals (35.7 percent). Meanwhile, the Caps were outscoring the Canadiens 11-9 at even strength and were unleashing at least 34 shots on goal in three of the four games (they lost two of them).
Goaltenders… The odd thing about this series is that the goaltenders that played the lion’s share of minutes for their respective teams will not be the principals in this series. Carey Price got the call in all four contests. Jaroslav Halak, who gets the nod for Game 1, did not play a single minute in any of the four games. Jose Theodore played grand total of 37 minutes over the four games, but was named on Tuesday as the Game 1 starter for the Caps.
Halak will bring a career record of 3-2-0, 2.60, .905 against the Caps into this series. He has a total of 97 minutes of playoff experience spread over three games and lost the only playoff start he has. Theodore is 2-1-1, 4.09, .877 against Montreal for his career. He also has 49 games of playoff experience (19-27, 2.79, .912, and one shutout), having not lost a first round series in four trips as the number one goalie. The ominous fact about Halak coming into this series is that after shutting out Philadelphia and Buffalo in consecutive starts he allowed 11 in three games against teams that finished no better than 11th in the Eastern Conference. He is about to step up against an opponent several notches higher in weight class.
Caps forwards vs. Montreal defense… It is one thing to have three 25-plus goal scorers on the top line, as the Caps do, but the depth the Caps have is such that they have three 15-plus goal scorers (full year) on what could be their third line of Tomas Fleischmann (23), Eric Belanger (15 with Minnesota and Washington), and Jason Chimera (15 with Columbus and Washington). You can probably pencil in Andrei Markov for the minutes Montreal will need against the Backstrom line, paired with Marc-Andre Bergeron (at least according to a Canadian Press report). Both are big point producers in their own right, especially on the power play, but Bergeron is sixth among the club’s defensemen (40 games minimum) in plus-minus. Given the Caps strengths at 5-on-5, he has to show an ability to hold his own in that aspect.
The second pair for Montreal – Roman Hamrlik and Jaroslav Spacek – are experienced (more than 2,000 regular seasons between them), but the flip side of that is both are 36 years old. How they match up against the Caps’ offensive push, whether against the second or third line, might be the 5-on-5 fault line that breaks for the Caps. The Caps aren’t likely to intimidate this group by forechecking them into a lot of mistakes, but there might be concerns about the Canadien defensemen’s ability to keep up with the Caps transition game. Montreal forwards are going to have to provide a lot of support to slow the Caps down in neutral zone ice.
Montreal forwards vs. Washington defense… Montreal is not going to ice a lot of size on the top two lines of forwards. Benoit Pouliot is 6’3”, but he is a lanky sort. Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta round out that line, neither standing taller than six feet, and Gomez barely hits the 200 pound mark. The Tomas Plekanec – Mike Cammalleri – Andrei Kostitsyn line doesn’t’ bring much size, either. So, they have to take advantage of quickness against a Caps defense that will ice no one shorter than six feet and not less than 200 pounds. Plekanec, Gomez, Gionta, and Cammalleri also comprise the Canadiens’ top power play scoring forwards (all with at least 15 points), another indicator of the advantages of small, quick forwards on a more open ice surface. It is an advantage that Montreal can exploit to the extent the Caps permit it by taking too many penalties. But here is something the Habs are going to miss that is overlooked in all this power play talk. Of the 57 power play goals that Montreal has this season, Glen Metropolit has ten of them, and he is out with a shoulder injury.
Players you expect to do well… and have to:
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
Let’s face it. As deep and as talented as the Caps are, the bullseye is on Ovechkin. As much as his production, he has to lead by example in his effort at both ends of the ice. He has made great strides this year in improving his two way play, but this series begins what is really the final exam in that regard.
Montreal: Scott Gomez
Gomez has two goals since the Olympic break, none in his last 14 games. He has a total of six points (all assists) in his last ten games. He is the second-leading scorer for the Canadiens, but his 12 goals for the season is his lowest level since the 2001-2002 season, his third in the league, and a far cry from the 33 he had in 2005-2006. Caps fans will be hoping he remains quiet in that regard. If he is, Montreal doesn’t have much of a chance of outscoring the Caps.
Players you might not think about… but should:
Washington: David Steckel
Little things get magnified in the playoffs, and one of the things that will bear watching is how well Steckel does in draws, especially in the defensive zone, and particularly against the Montreal power play. If the Caps present the Canadiens with power play opportunities, they have to take precious seconds away by getting possession of the puck and clearing it.
Montreal: Maxim Lapierre
Lapierre is not a stranger to some of the Caps. He was an important cog in the Hamilton Bulldogs’ win over the Hershey Bears in the 2007 Calder Cup final, when the Bears dressed the likes of Jeff Schultz, Tomas Fleischmann, David Steckel, and Mike Green. Lapierre is a somewhat abrasive sort that is perhaps best equipped to get the Caps off their game. Oh, let’s just say it… he’s a pain in the ass.
There are more than a few observers who think this series will not last long. Well, let’s think this through and remember which franchise we’re talking about here. The Caps have won nine seven-game series in franchise history. Never have they swept one. Only twice did the series go only five games. There are no sure things when it comes to the Caps, but in the end Montreal is coming into the series with a hope (that they get a lot of power play chances) and a prayer (that Halak finds his inner Dryden). It will not be nearly enough against a team with many more weapons.
Caps in five
Your Eastern Conference Prognostos for Round One: Sabres (3) vs. Bruins (6)
Next up in the tour around the Eastern Conference side of the first round…
Buffalo (3) vs. Boston (6)
Series…
Game 1 (Nov 7/@BOS): Bruins 4 – Sabres 2
Game 2 (Nov. 20/@BUF): Bruins 2 – Sabres 1 (OT)
Game 3 (Jan. 29/@BUF): Sabres 2 – Bruins 1
Game 4 (Feb. 9/@BUF): Bruins 3 – Sabres 2 (SO)
Game 5 (Mar. 29/@BOS): Sabres 3 – Bruins 2
Game 6 (Apr. 8/@ BOS): Bruins 3 – Sabres 1
Why the Sabres will win. Ryan Miller. Yes, he’s on the short list of Vezina Trophy candidates and a little longer list of Hart Trophy candidates, but it is how he is coming into the playoffs. After enduring a five-game winless streak in early February (0-3-2), he finished 12-4-1, 2.33, .924. He has shown no ill effects from backstopping Team USDA through the gold medal game at the Vancouver Olympics. And his numbers against the Bruins this season are microscopic – 1.71, .947 in going 2-0-2. Then there is the underappreciated balance that Buffalo brings on offense, a hallmark of Lindy Ruff-coached teams in recent years. Twenty Sabres (19 still with the team) finished in double digits in points; 12 (11 still with the team) had at least ten goals. And that means they can get production from unexpected places. For instance, Paul Gaustad was 2-2-4 against the Bruins for the season series, his best output against any NHL team.
Why the Bruins will win. For a team categorized as inept on offense and spent otherwise, they finished strong (9-4-1 in their last 13 games). And they might be catching the Sabres about to hit a downturn (2-4-0 in April). There is also the matter of having defeated the Sabres four times in six meetings this year and allowing them more than two goals in a game only once. Tuukka Rask’s numbers in goal against the Sabres are actually better than Miller’s against the Bruins (4-1-0, 1.43, .954). Since going nine consecutive appearances without a win through February 6th, Rask is 12-5-1, 1.80, .938, and two shutouts. Zdeno Chara has saved his best work, offensively, for the Sabres this year. In six games he is 1-6-7, plus-9. Overall, in the six games played the Bruins have shown a better (albeit not much) finishing kick, outscoring the Sabres 4-1 in the third period and overtime, after splitting goals down the middle in the first two periods (ten apiece). With respect to the injury to Marc Savard, he did not play a big factor in the season series, playing in only two of the six games (0-2-2). His absence, while it will be missed, is not a loss of production in the context of this series, one that Boston won anyway.
Players to watch… For Boston, Milan Lucic. The Bruins are going to have to find a way to get greasy points off Miller, especially since Marc Savard appears unlikely to appear in this series. Lucic has had a somewhat disappointing year overall (9-11-20, minus-7 in 50 games). It was even worse at home – one goal in 24 games. If the Bruins can’t get more production out of Lucic, it will be a steep climb indeed. For the Sabres, Tyler Myers. A Calder Trophy favorite and possible (though unlikely) Norris Trophy finalist, Myers has had a whale of a year. But now guys are playing for real money, and this is a different animal. Myers had more points against Boston (2-3-5) than he had against any other team. But in a series that might end up with more one-goal games than any other, it’s what he does at the other end that will be a big part of whether the Sabres are on the good or the bad side of those one-goal decisions.
In the end... Buffalo has more experience in big-game situations in goal with Ryan Miller holding the edge over Tuukka Rask. Buffalo is a little greener on defense, depending as much as they do on Tyler Myers (he led the team in total ice time and shorthanded ice time). Pick any game you want, and it is likely that first to three goals wins. We think Buffalo will do that once more often than the Bruins, owing to better scoring balance and an edge in goal in big games.
Who will win?... Buffalo in seven.
Buffalo (3) vs. Boston (6)
Series…
Game 1 (Nov 7/@BOS): Bruins 4 – Sabres 2
Game 2 (Nov. 20/@BUF): Bruins 2 – Sabres 1 (OT)
Game 3 (Jan. 29/@BUF): Sabres 2 – Bruins 1
Game 4 (Feb. 9/@BUF): Bruins 3 – Sabres 2 (SO)
Game 5 (Mar. 29/@BOS): Sabres 3 – Bruins 2
Game 6 (Apr. 8/@ BOS): Bruins 3 – Sabres 1
Why the Sabres will win. Ryan Miller. Yes, he’s on the short list of Vezina Trophy candidates and a little longer list of Hart Trophy candidates, but it is how he is coming into the playoffs. After enduring a five-game winless streak in early February (0-3-2), he finished 12-4-1, 2.33, .924. He has shown no ill effects from backstopping Team USDA through the gold medal game at the Vancouver Olympics. And his numbers against the Bruins this season are microscopic – 1.71, .947 in going 2-0-2. Then there is the underappreciated balance that Buffalo brings on offense, a hallmark of Lindy Ruff-coached teams in recent years. Twenty Sabres (19 still with the team) finished in double digits in points; 12 (11 still with the team) had at least ten goals. And that means they can get production from unexpected places. For instance, Paul Gaustad was 2-2-4 against the Bruins for the season series, his best output against any NHL team.
Why the Bruins will win. For a team categorized as inept on offense and spent otherwise, they finished strong (9-4-1 in their last 13 games). And they might be catching the Sabres about to hit a downturn (2-4-0 in April). There is also the matter of having defeated the Sabres four times in six meetings this year and allowing them more than two goals in a game only once. Tuukka Rask’s numbers in goal against the Sabres are actually better than Miller’s against the Bruins (4-1-0, 1.43, .954). Since going nine consecutive appearances without a win through February 6th, Rask is 12-5-1, 1.80, .938, and two shutouts. Zdeno Chara has saved his best work, offensively, for the Sabres this year. In six games he is 1-6-7, plus-9. Overall, in the six games played the Bruins have shown a better (albeit not much) finishing kick, outscoring the Sabres 4-1 in the third period and overtime, after splitting goals down the middle in the first two periods (ten apiece). With respect to the injury to Marc Savard, he did not play a big factor in the season series, playing in only two of the six games (0-2-2). His absence, while it will be missed, is not a loss of production in the context of this series, one that Boston won anyway.
Players to watch… For Boston, Milan Lucic. The Bruins are going to have to find a way to get greasy points off Miller, especially since Marc Savard appears unlikely to appear in this series. Lucic has had a somewhat disappointing year overall (9-11-20, minus-7 in 50 games). It was even worse at home – one goal in 24 games. If the Bruins can’t get more production out of Lucic, it will be a steep climb indeed. For the Sabres, Tyler Myers. A Calder Trophy favorite and possible (though unlikely) Norris Trophy finalist, Myers has had a whale of a year. But now guys are playing for real money, and this is a different animal. Myers had more points against Boston (2-3-5) than he had against any other team. But in a series that might end up with more one-goal games than any other, it’s what he does at the other end that will be a big part of whether the Sabres are on the good or the bad side of those one-goal decisions.
In the end... Buffalo has more experience in big-game situations in goal with Ryan Miller holding the edge over Tuukka Rask. Buffalo is a little greener on defense, depending as much as they do on Tyler Myers (he led the team in total ice time and shorthanded ice time). Pick any game you want, and it is likely that first to three goals wins. We think Buffalo will do that once more often than the Bruins, owing to better scoring balance and an edge in goal in big games.
Who will win?... Buffalo in seven.
The Columnist and the Old School Fan
Let me preface this with a little personal history. I arrived in Washington in 1984. One of the first things I did upon moving into my apartment and getting phone service (we didn’t have the Internet back then) was to procure tickets for Washington Capitals hockey. The first game I attended happened to feature the Stanley Cup finalists from the previous year, the Edmonton Oilers, who the Caps pasted that night, 9-2.
That was the start of a long relationship with the local hockey team, one not filled with a lot of high points, if you measure such things by wins that matter. Rather, my 25 odd years or so of following the Caps is not unlike the experience of other fans of my vintage. Every autumn brought hope, every spring disappointment. Sure, we could bask in the individual achievements of a Mike Gartner or a Scott Stevens or a Bobby Carpenter (all of whom would end up leaving the Caps in what was still the prime of their careers), but for each brief glimpse of success, disappointment came down like a sledge-hammer to crush it. The upset loss to the Rangers in the 1986 playoffs, watching Ron Hextall score into an empty net to drive a nail into the coffin of the 1989 playoff hopes, the four-overtime losses to the Islanders and the Penguins (any other teams have two four-overtime losses in the Stanley Cup playoffs on their own ice?). And the demons… early in franchise history it was the Islanders always finding a way to snuff out any playoff hopes. Later, it would be (and still is) the Penguins.
And for me personally, I couldn’t even enjoy the most satisfying comeback in Caps history, when the boys came back from a 3-1 series deficit and the short end of a 3-0 score in Game 7 against the Flyers in 1988 to win the series on the most famous call of an overtime goal in Caps history. No, on that night I trudged to Capital Centre nursing a case of the flu and ended up having to leave after the first period when the Caps were in that 3-0 hole. I had to watch the biggest finish in team history under a blanket in my apartment. All in all, it made one wonder how one could have much passion for this club. But a lot of us did.
Caps fans who have come out on the other side from a 25 or more year journey in following the team come by their being a fan in a fashion hard-earned.
Which brings me to this morning’s column by Mike Wise in the Washington Post, the self-appointed spokesperson for the new Caps fan, who sees codgers like me as a little too snobby about our position on the NHL fan scale of value, who sees us too self-centered and self-absorbed with our brand of fandom to allow “bandwagon jumpers” such as himself on board the Caps juggernaut.
Mike, you have it all wrong – 100 percent. For fans like me, the problem isn’t new fans. Trust me (I was there), going to games in 2003 or 2004 was not especially pleasant. The team was awful, and the arena on F Street was quiet and deserted. Even when Alex Ovechkin joined the club, there were a lot of rows of seats left empty for games those first couple of years. But to see Verizon Center now, a sea of red jerseys, all sorts of quirky characters, a team that lights up the night and the scoreboard, and the kids… all the kids who are there with signs and painted faces and their miniature jerseys. No Caps fan who has been around is saying, “take a hike” to those fans.
It isn’t the new fans, it is the “discovery” of the Caps by folks such as yourself in the media who have been here a few years with a hockey team in your midst, but one deemed unworthy of the slightest coverage. There are media personalities in this area who to this day express little but contempt for the sport and cover it out of what seems only an economic obligation to their sponsors. Fine, hockey is not everyone's cup of tea. But when you and many of your colleagues jump on board merely because it's the "in" thing to cover, attaching the label of "fan" to yourselves rings rather hollow.
Mike, you accuse Caps fans such as myself of “acting like no one can cheer for a hockey team unless they've read Toe Blake's private journals on power-play rotation.” The truth is, the media have acted in this community for the past couple of decades as if the Caps were the equivalent of an appendix – a useless organ that occasionally flares up to no good (as when the Caps got coverage during the "limousine” incident some years ago), but otherwise can be ignored. For years, the Caps and their fans were treated with contempt – a bunch of quirky whiners who didn’t understand the dynamics of sports journalism, who didn’t understand that knowing whether Mark Rypien eats Wheaties or Cheerios for breakfast is of paramount importance in the competition for column inches or air time minutes.
Fine, there are some fans (we’d like to think we are among them) who “get it.” The Redskins are the straw that stirs the sports drink in these parts, and will for some time to come, whether the Capitals win a Stanley Cup or not. The Redskins come by that rank honestly; they have provided a lot of thrills and memories to folks in these parts.
But after having endured disappointments on the ice, empty arenas, and little to hope for year after year as a fan, to come out on the other side to see a team people want to see, a team people are thrilled to watch, a team with players who genuinely connect with fans – what Caps fan who has endured the bad times is going to say, “sorry, this is our party?”
Quite the contrary. In my experience, folks I come across who have looked at hockey as something of a puzzlement seem genuinely curious about the club, if not a rock-the-red fanatic. It’s a pleasure to talk to them about the sport. Folks who couldn’t pick Alex Ovechkin out of a one-man lineup ask about what he did the previous evening or remark about having seen his latest highlight on television last evening. Folks who wouldn’t have known a hockey puck from a bread truck stop and talk about whether Jose Theodore or Semyon Varlamov should get a start in goal against the Rangers.
Verizon Center is a big place – holds 18,277. Lots of room for the old fan and the new fan. It’s just difficult to see those who would use their column space to accuse us “old-school” Caps fans of holding newer fans in contempt be blind to the contempt they have for those of us who for stuck around.
That was the start of a long relationship with the local hockey team, one not filled with a lot of high points, if you measure such things by wins that matter. Rather, my 25 odd years or so of following the Caps is not unlike the experience of other fans of my vintage. Every autumn brought hope, every spring disappointment. Sure, we could bask in the individual achievements of a Mike Gartner or a Scott Stevens or a Bobby Carpenter (all of whom would end up leaving the Caps in what was still the prime of their careers), but for each brief glimpse of success, disappointment came down like a sledge-hammer to crush it. The upset loss to the Rangers in the 1986 playoffs, watching Ron Hextall score into an empty net to drive a nail into the coffin of the 1989 playoff hopes, the four-overtime losses to the Islanders and the Penguins (any other teams have two four-overtime losses in the Stanley Cup playoffs on their own ice?). And the demons… early in franchise history it was the Islanders always finding a way to snuff out any playoff hopes. Later, it would be (and still is) the Penguins.
And for me personally, I couldn’t even enjoy the most satisfying comeback in Caps history, when the boys came back from a 3-1 series deficit and the short end of a 3-0 score in Game 7 against the Flyers in 1988 to win the series on the most famous call of an overtime goal in Caps history. No, on that night I trudged to Capital Centre nursing a case of the flu and ended up having to leave after the first period when the Caps were in that 3-0 hole. I had to watch the biggest finish in team history under a blanket in my apartment. All in all, it made one wonder how one could have much passion for this club. But a lot of us did.
Caps fans who have come out on the other side from a 25 or more year journey in following the team come by their being a fan in a fashion hard-earned.
Which brings me to this morning’s column by Mike Wise in the Washington Post, the self-appointed spokesperson for the new Caps fan, who sees codgers like me as a little too snobby about our position on the NHL fan scale of value, who sees us too self-centered and self-absorbed with our brand of fandom to allow “bandwagon jumpers” such as himself on board the Caps juggernaut.
Mike, you have it all wrong – 100 percent. For fans like me, the problem isn’t new fans. Trust me (I was there), going to games in 2003 or 2004 was not especially pleasant. The team was awful, and the arena on F Street was quiet and deserted. Even when Alex Ovechkin joined the club, there were a lot of rows of seats left empty for games those first couple of years. But to see Verizon Center now, a sea of red jerseys, all sorts of quirky characters, a team that lights up the night and the scoreboard, and the kids… all the kids who are there with signs and painted faces and their miniature jerseys. No Caps fan who has been around is saying, “take a hike” to those fans.
It isn’t the new fans, it is the “discovery” of the Caps by folks such as yourself in the media who have been here a few years with a hockey team in your midst, but one deemed unworthy of the slightest coverage. There are media personalities in this area who to this day express little but contempt for the sport and cover it out of what seems only an economic obligation to their sponsors. Fine, hockey is not everyone's cup of tea. But when you and many of your colleagues jump on board merely because it's the "in" thing to cover, attaching the label of "fan" to yourselves rings rather hollow.
Mike, you accuse Caps fans such as myself of “acting like no one can cheer for a hockey team unless they've read Toe Blake's private journals on power-play rotation.” The truth is, the media have acted in this community for the past couple of decades as if the Caps were the equivalent of an appendix – a useless organ that occasionally flares up to no good (as when the Caps got coverage during the "limousine” incident some years ago), but otherwise can be ignored. For years, the Caps and their fans were treated with contempt – a bunch of quirky whiners who didn’t understand the dynamics of sports journalism, who didn’t understand that knowing whether Mark Rypien eats Wheaties or Cheerios for breakfast is of paramount importance in the competition for column inches or air time minutes.
Fine, there are some fans (we’d like to think we are among them) who “get it.” The Redskins are the straw that stirs the sports drink in these parts, and will for some time to come, whether the Capitals win a Stanley Cup or not. The Redskins come by that rank honestly; they have provided a lot of thrills and memories to folks in these parts.
But after having endured disappointments on the ice, empty arenas, and little to hope for year after year as a fan, to come out on the other side to see a team people want to see, a team people are thrilled to watch, a team with players who genuinely connect with fans – what Caps fan who has endured the bad times is going to say, “sorry, this is our party?”
Quite the contrary. In my experience, folks I come across who have looked at hockey as something of a puzzlement seem genuinely curious about the club, if not a rock-the-red fanatic. It’s a pleasure to talk to them about the sport. Folks who couldn’t pick Alex Ovechkin out of a one-man lineup ask about what he did the previous evening or remark about having seen his latest highlight on television last evening. Folks who wouldn’t have known a hockey puck from a bread truck stop and talk about whether Jose Theodore or Semyon Varlamov should get a start in goal against the Rangers.
Verizon Center is a big place – holds 18,277. Lots of room for the old fan and the new fan. It’s just difficult to see those who would use their column space to accuse us “old-school” Caps fans of holding newer fans in contempt be blind to the contempt they have for those of us who for stuck around.
Your Eastern Conference Prognostos for Round One: Devils (2) vs. Flyers (7)
It’s Round One of the 2009-2010 Stanley Cup playoffs, and there is a feast for the hockey fan as old rivalries are renewed, new ones are forged, and we hockey fans can now have the fun that all those “March Madness” types had last month with all those first round games. The East has playoff rivalries of the “first time” (Caps/Canadiens) and rhyme (Pens/Sens), of I-95 (Devils/Flyers) and I-90 (Buffalo/Boston). So, let’s get to it…
New Jersey (2) vs. Philadelphia (7)
Series…
Game 1 (Oct 3/@NJD): Flyers 5 – Devils 2
Game 2 (Nov. 16/@PHL): Flyers 3 – Devils 2
Game 3 (Dec. 12/@NJD): Devils 4 – Flyers 1
Game 4 (Feb. 8/@PHL): Flyers 3 – Devils 2
Game 5 (Feb. 10/@NJD): Flyers 3 – Devils 2 (OT)
Game 6 (Mar. 28/@ PHL): Flyers 5 – Devils 1
Why the Devils will win. Team Automaton has been methodically preparing for this since the Olympic break. They finished 11-6-4 – not great, but consistent. They did not win more than two games in succession in that span, but they did it four times. It was a case of two steps forward, one step back. Do that often enough, and you end up with a very good record. Then there is the penalty killing. This strikes to the heart of the one ace-in-the-hole the Flyers bring into this series. The Flyers finished the year third in power play efficiency (21.4 percent), but the Devils killed off 45 of 50 shorthanded situations after the Olympic break (90.0 percent). More important is that number “50.” Allowing 2.4 power plays per game to the opposition is the very definition of not beating themselves. Then there is Marty. Mark Twain’s comment about death applies here, that reports of Martin Brodeur’s death as an elite goalie after the Olympics are greatly exaggerated. Since the break he is 11-5-3, 2.01, .921, with two shutouts. In other words, “Marty numbers.” It is the single biggest advantage in the series, considering the problems the Flyers have had in goal this season.
Why the Flyers will win. Look at the record; five wins in six games. And it was Marty that the Flyers torched for 19 goals in six games, and they drove him out after 40 minutes in their last meeting. Of all the teams he faced more than once this year, Brodeur has his second worst GAA (3.34) and his second worst save percentage (.878) against the Flyers. And it is not as if the Flyers have needed a potent power play to score those goals – they are 3-for-18 (16.7%) in the six games against the Devils’ penalty killers. Philly also comes into this game having already played what amount to two playoff games, the home-and-home with the Rangers in which they eked out a split to get the ticket to the dance. And for all the grief heaped upon the Flyers for their goaltending situation, Brian Boucher did not have a bad finish to the year as much as the guys in front of him sometimes let him down. After Michael Leighton went down to injury in mid-March, Boucher took over the reins and went 5-6-2, 2.62, .904. These are not elite numbers by any definition, but things could have been much, much worse.
Players to watch... For the Flyers, Jeff Carter. Over a ten-game span that straddled the Olympic break, Carter was hot enough to melt lead. Ten goals in ten games. But since then he has one goal and three points in his last eight contests. If Carter isn't getting pucks to the back of the net, the Flyers are going to have a bigger burden put on Mike Richards and Danny Briere, who could be suffocated by the Jersey defensive scheme. For the Devils, it is Ilya Kovalchuk. This is why he was brought to Jersey, to provide an offensive dimension -- especially in the playoffs -- that they have otherwise lacked. Kovalchuk had 10 goals in 27 games for he Devils. He seems to have been more of a decoy of late, picking up but a single goal in his last five games, but recording five assists. Still, he's there to light the lamp.
In the end... the Devils are the safe pick. They have Marty, they are playing Devils (read: “boringly efficient”) hockey. But they also have been bounced out in the first round in each of the past two years. In both instances, the Devils simply couldn’t score (15 goals in seven games last year against Carolina, 12 in five games against the Rangers the year before). Ominously, the Devils’ offense has beaten up on the bottom feeders late in the season (six goals against Columbus, seven against the Islanders), but they’ve struggled to score against stiffer opposition, including a 5-1 pasting at the hands of the Flyers just a couple of weeks ago. Ilya Kovalchuk is supposed to be the remedy to this springtime malady of offensive malnutrition. We'll see. This might not be the most entertaining series of the first round, but it might be the most competitive.
Who will win?... New Jersey in seven.
New Jersey (2) vs. Philadelphia (7)
Series…
Game 1 (Oct 3/@NJD): Flyers 5 – Devils 2
Game 2 (Nov. 16/@PHL): Flyers 3 – Devils 2
Game 3 (Dec. 12/@NJD): Devils 4 – Flyers 1
Game 4 (Feb. 8/@PHL): Flyers 3 – Devils 2
Game 5 (Feb. 10/@NJD): Flyers 3 – Devils 2 (OT)
Game 6 (Mar. 28/@ PHL): Flyers 5 – Devils 1
Why the Devils will win. Team Automaton has been methodically preparing for this since the Olympic break. They finished 11-6-4 – not great, but consistent. They did not win more than two games in succession in that span, but they did it four times. It was a case of two steps forward, one step back. Do that often enough, and you end up with a very good record. Then there is the penalty killing. This strikes to the heart of the one ace-in-the-hole the Flyers bring into this series. The Flyers finished the year third in power play efficiency (21.4 percent), but the Devils killed off 45 of 50 shorthanded situations after the Olympic break (90.0 percent). More important is that number “50.” Allowing 2.4 power plays per game to the opposition is the very definition of not beating themselves. Then there is Marty. Mark Twain’s comment about death applies here, that reports of Martin Brodeur’s death as an elite goalie after the Olympics are greatly exaggerated. Since the break he is 11-5-3, 2.01, .921, with two shutouts. In other words, “Marty numbers.” It is the single biggest advantage in the series, considering the problems the Flyers have had in goal this season.
Why the Flyers will win. Look at the record; five wins in six games. And it was Marty that the Flyers torched for 19 goals in six games, and they drove him out after 40 minutes in their last meeting. Of all the teams he faced more than once this year, Brodeur has his second worst GAA (3.34) and his second worst save percentage (.878) against the Flyers. And it is not as if the Flyers have needed a potent power play to score those goals – they are 3-for-18 (16.7%) in the six games against the Devils’ penalty killers. Philly also comes into this game having already played what amount to two playoff games, the home-and-home with the Rangers in which they eked out a split to get the ticket to the dance. And for all the grief heaped upon the Flyers for their goaltending situation, Brian Boucher did not have a bad finish to the year as much as the guys in front of him sometimes let him down. After Michael Leighton went down to injury in mid-March, Boucher took over the reins and went 5-6-2, 2.62, .904. These are not elite numbers by any definition, but things could have been much, much worse.
Players to watch... For the Flyers, Jeff Carter. Over a ten-game span that straddled the Olympic break, Carter was hot enough to melt lead. Ten goals in ten games. But since then he has one goal and three points in his last eight contests. If Carter isn't getting pucks to the back of the net, the Flyers are going to have a bigger burden put on Mike Richards and Danny Briere, who could be suffocated by the Jersey defensive scheme. For the Devils, it is Ilya Kovalchuk. This is why he was brought to Jersey, to provide an offensive dimension -- especially in the playoffs -- that they have otherwise lacked. Kovalchuk had 10 goals in 27 games for he Devils. He seems to have been more of a decoy of late, picking up but a single goal in his last five games, but recording five assists. Still, he's there to light the lamp.
In the end... the Devils are the safe pick. They have Marty, they are playing Devils (read: “boringly efficient”) hockey. But they also have been bounced out in the first round in each of the past two years. In both instances, the Devils simply couldn’t score (15 goals in seven games last year against Carolina, 12 in five games against the Rangers the year before). Ominously, the Devils’ offense has beaten up on the bottom feeders late in the season (six goals against Columbus, seven against the Islanders), but they’ve struggled to score against stiffer opposition, including a 5-1 pasting at the hands of the Flyers just a couple of weeks ago. Ilya Kovalchuk is supposed to be the remedy to this springtime malady of offensive malnutrition. We'll see. This might not be the most entertaining series of the first round, but it might be the most competitive.
Who will win?... New Jersey in seven.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
A ONE-point night: Bruins 4 - Caps 3 (OT/Gimmick)
Such was the case as the Boston Bruins defeated the Capitals in a Gimmick, 4-3, this afternoon. Coach Bruce Boudreau eschewed using the obvious trick shot candidates, such as Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, or Nicklas Backstrom. Instead, Boudreau sent out Boyd Gordon and Matt Bradley to take the shots on Bruin goalie Tim “Thunder Blocker” Thomas (more on that nickname in a bit). Thomas stopped both attempts, while David Krejci and Miroslav Satan succeeded on their attempts to get the extra standings point for the visitors. All in all, it was nice to see Gordon and Bradley get the chance, whatever the result.
It was a rather chippy game, especially for one with so little meaning to either side. Boston had sixth place sewn up and no individual hardware to try and lay a claim on, while the Caps clinched the top spot in the league and had only numbers to play for – more goals for Alex Ovechkin, getting to 40 goals for Alexander Semin, getting to 20 goals for Mike Green, getting to 30 goals for Mike Knuble, getting Ovechkin three points to get him the Ross Trophy for the league’s top scorer. Only Semin succeeded, getting a goal 2:23 into the first period, a play that also provided his 300th career point.
Other than that, the entertainment was provided by Tim Thomas, who thought Jason Chimera could use the waffleboard treatment after Chimera was ridden into him by a Boston defender. OK, so Chimera didn’t look as if he was making an herculean effort to get out of the way (he would say later than he tried to hug Thomas to keep from knocking him over, no doubt having read the Brian Burke treatise on hugging, although that pertained to plays along the boards). Thomas got a few good whacks in and looked to come perilously close to meriting a match penalty under Rule 51.3.*
Other stuff…
-- The Caps might have lost the game, they might have scored “only” three goals, but they looked to have “played” a pretty good game. There were a lot of chances in close in which the puck seemed to take an active role in avoiding Caps’ sticks.
-- Boston got two goals by hitting an area about three inches square just under the crossbar and inside the post over goalie Semyon Varlamov’s glove. If shooters put pucks there, there really isn’t a lot a goalie can do about it. The butterfly dares shooters to take and make those shots, and Michael Ryder and Marco Sturm did just that. They deserve the credit, not Varlamov the blame.
-- In another respect it was just like any other game… Mike Green finished with 28:34 of ice time (almost eight minutes more than the next Caps defenseman), and Alex Ovechkin finished with 25:55 in ice time (more than two minutes more than the next forward).
-- Another round number… 50. As in “plus-50.” For Jeff Schultz, that’s the highest such number in the league since teammates Milan Hejduk and Joe Sakic each finished plus-52 in 2002-2003.
-- The crowd was in playoff voice today, something that has been a bit missing in recent games. Lot’s more red, too (perhaps a function of it being a weekend game and fewer people coming straight from work).
-- In one respect the Caps did not make the Bruins pay a high enough price. With Zdeno Chara held out of this game and Dennis Seidenberg hurt, the Bruins started three defensemen – Adam McQuaid, Andrew Bodnarchuk (or “odnarch,” if all you had to go by was what you could see on the back of his jersey), and Jeffrey Penner came into this game with a total of 23 games of combined NHL experience. In a game with more meaning, the Caps probably exploit that more effectively, but in a game with more meaning, Chara and his broken nose is out there.
-- Only McQuaid and Bodnarchuk did not record a shot on goal for the Bruins. Only Tom Poti and David Steckel failed to record a shot for the Caps. A whole lot o’ shootin’ going on out there.
-- When the Capitals were struggling mightily to get points in 2005, 2006, and 2007, the biggest problem they had was playing players in a spot a rung or two higher on the responsibility ladder than their skill suggested. Guys who should have been third liners (think “Brian Willsie”) were first line wingers. Third pair, or maybe seventh defensemen (think "Mathieu Biron") were getting top-four minutes. No more, and that is the subtle talent that the front office has had in adding pieces. Jason Chimera is the kind of player who adds speed and grit to a third line (in 2006 he would have been on the top line or perhaps the second line). Eric Belanger can play in a natural third line slot and even be a credible second liner in a pinch. He would have been a second line center by default in 2006. These two provide the kind of two-way contribution that allows the Caps to ice a very good fourth line in some combination of Matt Bradley, David Steckel, Boyd Gordon, and Scott Walker, a group that would have been getting third line (and perhaps second line in spots) minutes a few years ago.
In the end, the Caps did a lot of good… shattered the franchise points record, ditto the wins record. Fifteen losses in regulation is a franchise low for a season, and that includes the abbreviated 1994-1995 season that was only 48 games long). 313 goals ranks the team sixth in franchise history for scoring, the other five clubs ahead of them getting their totals in the go-go 1980’s and early 1990’s. Two 100-point scorers for the first time in history. Jose Theodore closed the season going 20-0-3, a franchise record for consecutive games unbeaten in regulation (if you’re wondering, Gerry Cheevers went 24-0-8 in 1971-1972… he won a Stanley Cup that year).
But all that is in the past tense now. The only thing that matters starts on Thursday.
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, April 11th
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
It’s Game 82 of the regular season., and it ends as it begins, with a game against the Boston Bruins. The Caps and B’s meeting a noon affair to bring the curtain down on the regular season, and these are two clubs with literally nothing to play for but the final statistics. Boston will finish sixth in the Eastern Conference and will play Buffalo or New Jersey in the first round. The Caps clinched everything around Valentine’s Day and will get either the Rangers (if they win today) or the Canadiens (if they don’t). Seems like just yesterday these teams were locking up in Game 1. Game 82 makes for a twinge of sadness, a reminder that another season is going by and…
“You know, of course, that 82 is a ‘happy number.’”
Huh?
“82 is a ‘happy number’… it’s a math thing.”
I don’t understand, a “happy” number? As in “grin from ear to ear?”
“Let me explain… my name is Calvin Q. Lusse, professor of mathematics.”
A math prof named “Cal Q. Lusse?”
“Calvin… “
o-o-o-o-o-kay…
“Anyway, here is how it works… First, take any positive integer ‘p’. Then, break it down into digits. Next, square the digits and add those squares. You get a new number ‘n’. If n = 1, then ‘p’ is a happy number. If it’s not, then set p = n and repeat the steps. If the process repeats forever, then ‘p’ is not a happy number.”
You’re kidding, right.
“We don’t kid in the world of mathematics. Let me show you… 82. Eight squared is 64, and two squared is four. The sum of the two is 68. That’s not equal to 1, so we take the six and square it, then take the eight and square it. 36 plus 68 is 104. Do it again, and… ”
How long does this take?
“About as long as it takes to play 82 games…”
Well, we don’t have that long, seeing as how today’s game is a noon start. The Caps and the Bruins played just six days ago, and not much has changed since we looked at that game. Since the 3-2 overtime win for the Caps last Monday, both teams won the two games that followed in their respective schedules leading up to this season-ending matchup. The overall numbers for the teams for the season look like this...
The Caps, however, lead the season series, three games to none, outscoring the Bruins 11-4 in the process. The Caps have been led in scoring in this series by Nicklas Backstrom (1-6-7, plus-4), who had a three-point night (1-2-3) in the last meeting of these teams last Monday. Overall Backstrom is 4-11-15 in 11 career games against the Bruins. Backstrom will enter this game having recorded three points in each of his last three games (3-6-9) and is 7-14-21, plus-7 in his last 13 games.
Backstrom might have the points lead in the season series, but Brooks Laich leads the Caps with four goals, including two game-winners (one in overtime last Monday). It’s worth noting that the four goals Laich scored in the three games came from an average of 15 feet from the net, a reflection of his willingness to go into traffic to get goals. Seems he takes to heart his own quote, that "if you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." He has nine goals in 19 career games against the Bruins.
It might strike the Caps fan odd that in a series with 11 goals for the Caps, none have been scored by a defenseman. More to the point, Mike Green does not have a point in this series so far, and only one defenseman still with the team has points. Tom Poti is 0-3-3, plus-7 in the three games of this series. Maybe it is some karmic thing, seeing as how Poti was born in Worcester, about 50 miles outside of Boston. Poti is 2-14-16 in 29 career games against the Bruins.
If Semyon Varlamov gets the start against the Bruins, as it seems likely he will, it will be his first appearance against the Bruins. In fact, it will be his first appearance against the Bruins organization. He did not face Providence during his stay in the AHL, either. Although he got off to a slow re-start after the Olympic break (1-2-1, 3.41, .874), he has been much better in his last four appearances (2-1-1, 2.06, .913). Fun fact… Varlamov is the only goaltender on a non-original six team to have recorded a shutout before his 21st birthday. According to the Caps’ media guide, only three others have done it (Harry Lumley for Detroit, and Patrick Roy and Carey Price, both of Montreal).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Milan Lucic
The big winger has had something of a disappointing year (9-10-19, minus-7 in 49 games), but might be hitting a hot streak just in time. He is 1-2-3 in his last three games, and the modest three-game points streak he has is his longest of the season. Perhaps just as important, Lucic hasn’t been on the minus-side of the ledger in his last 11 games. A big hitter – and he is that (third on the team, despite missing more than 30 games) – can’t be getting hits at the expense of seeing goals scored when he is on the ice. Some advice to the operations folks at Verizon Center… hide the chocolate. According to the Bruins media guide, eating chocolate before a game is his hockey ritual.
Washington: Mike Knuble
Knuble can get to 30 goals for the season with a two-goal game against the Bruins. It isn’t out of the question (unless he is held out of the lineup); he has goals in each of his last two games. He has six multi-goal games this season, but none since March 4th. He is 8-8-16 in 23 career games against Boston, including a pair of goals in three games this season.
Keys:
1. Keep the lights off. You can’t do worse against air than Boston has on its power play over the last month. They are 3-for-49 over their last 16 games and have failed to record a power play goal in 15 of those games. The Caps are 14-for-15 on the penalty kill over their last five games... probably no coincidence that they are 5-0-0 in those games.
2. tickticktickticktick… The Caps have played good “60 minutes” games against the Bruins, closing fact in all three games. In the first two they scored a total of five goals in the third period (to Boston’s one), and scored the winner in overtime in the other game. It will be especially hard to maintain focus for 60 minutes on a day like this, but if there is one team with less to play for than the Caps, it might be Boston. At least the Caps have the possibility of getting Alex Ovechkin a couple of league-leader finishes (points, goals).
3. Win. For what it’s worth, each of the last three Stanley Cup winners won their last regular season game. The last one not to win was Carolina, but Martin Gerber was in goal for that one (a 4-0 loss to Buffalo), and he didn’t make it through the first round as the Hurricanes’ netminder.
In the end, it’s hard what to make of this game. These teams could meet in the second round of the playoffs if the Bruins are the lowest seed to win in the first round. So you would have to reach a bit to think of this as a “statement” game. Boston remains a team finding it difficult to score and difficult to convert power plays (when they get them; they averaged barely three chances a game over their last 16 games). It’s hard to see the Bruins getting more than two, except by fluke. And it’s hard to see the Caps getting fewer than three, because it has happened only four times their 19 games since the Olympics. Sounds like how it will end up…
Caps 3 – Bruins 2
It’s Game 82 of the regular season., and it ends as it begins, with a game against the Boston Bruins. The Caps and B’s meeting a noon affair to bring the curtain down on the regular season, and these are two clubs with literally nothing to play for but the final statistics. Boston will finish sixth in the Eastern Conference and will play Buffalo or New Jersey in the first round. The Caps clinched everything around Valentine’s Day and will get either the Rangers (if they win today) or the Canadiens (if they don’t). Seems like just yesterday these teams were locking up in Game 1. Game 82 makes for a twinge of sadness, a reminder that another season is going by and…
“You know, of course, that 82 is a ‘happy number.’”
Huh?
“82 is a ‘happy number’… it’s a math thing.”
I don’t understand, a “happy” number? As in “grin from ear to ear?”
“Let me explain… my name is Calvin Q. Lusse, professor of mathematics.”
A math prof named “Cal Q. Lusse?”
“Calvin… “
o-o-o-o-o-kay…
“Anyway, here is how it works… First, take any positive integer ‘p’. Then, break it down into digits. Next, square the digits and add those squares. You get a new number ‘n’. If n = 1, then ‘p’ is a happy number. If it’s not, then set p = n and repeat the steps. If the process repeats forever, then ‘p’ is not a happy number.”
You’re kidding, right.
“We don’t kid in the world of mathematics. Let me show you… 82. Eight squared is 64, and two squared is four. The sum of the two is 68. That’s not equal to 1, so we take the six and square it, then take the eight and square it. 36 plus 68 is 104. Do it again, and… ”
How long does this take?
“About as long as it takes to play 82 games…”
Well, we don’t have that long, seeing as how today’s game is a noon start. The Caps and the Bruins played just six days ago, and not much has changed since we looked at that game. Since the 3-2 overtime win for the Caps last Monday, both teams won the two games that followed in their respective schedules leading up to this season-ending matchup. The overall numbers for the teams for the season look like this...
The Caps, however, lead the season series, three games to none, outscoring the Bruins 11-4 in the process. The Caps have been led in scoring in this series by Nicklas Backstrom (1-6-7, plus-4), who had a three-point night (1-2-3) in the last meeting of these teams last Monday. Overall Backstrom is 4-11-15 in 11 career games against the Bruins. Backstrom will enter this game having recorded three points in each of his last three games (3-6-9) and is 7-14-21, plus-7 in his last 13 games.
Backstrom might have the points lead in the season series, but Brooks Laich leads the Caps with four goals, including two game-winners (one in overtime last Monday). It’s worth noting that the four goals Laich scored in the three games came from an average of 15 feet from the net, a reflection of his willingness to go into traffic to get goals. Seems he takes to heart his own quote, that "if you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." He has nine goals in 19 career games against the Bruins.
It might strike the Caps fan odd that in a series with 11 goals for the Caps, none have been scored by a defenseman. More to the point, Mike Green does not have a point in this series so far, and only one defenseman still with the team has points. Tom Poti is 0-3-3, plus-7 in the three games of this series. Maybe it is some karmic thing, seeing as how Poti was born in Worcester, about 50 miles outside of Boston. Poti is 2-14-16 in 29 career games against the Bruins.
If Semyon Varlamov gets the start against the Bruins, as it seems likely he will, it will be his first appearance against the Bruins. In fact, it will be his first appearance against the Bruins organization. He did not face Providence during his stay in the AHL, either. Although he got off to a slow re-start after the Olympic break (1-2-1, 3.41, .874), he has been much better in his last four appearances (2-1-1, 2.06, .913). Fun fact… Varlamov is the only goaltender on a non-original six team to have recorded a shutout before his 21st birthday. According to the Caps’ media guide, only three others have done it (Harry Lumley for Detroit, and Patrick Roy and Carey Price, both of Montreal).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Milan Lucic
The big winger has had something of a disappointing year (9-10-19, minus-7 in 49 games), but might be hitting a hot streak just in time. He is 1-2-3 in his last three games, and the modest three-game points streak he has is his longest of the season. Perhaps just as important, Lucic hasn’t been on the minus-side of the ledger in his last 11 games. A big hitter – and he is that (third on the team, despite missing more than 30 games) – can’t be getting hits at the expense of seeing goals scored when he is on the ice. Some advice to the operations folks at Verizon Center… hide the chocolate. According to the Bruins media guide, eating chocolate before a game is his hockey ritual.
Washington: Mike Knuble
Knuble can get to 30 goals for the season with a two-goal game against the Bruins. It isn’t out of the question (unless he is held out of the lineup); he has goals in each of his last two games. He has six multi-goal games this season, but none since March 4th. He is 8-8-16 in 23 career games against Boston, including a pair of goals in three games this season.
Keys:
1. Keep the lights off. You can’t do worse against air than Boston has on its power play over the last month. They are 3-for-49 over their last 16 games and have failed to record a power play goal in 15 of those games. The Caps are 14-for-15 on the penalty kill over their last five games... probably no coincidence that they are 5-0-0 in those games.
2. tickticktickticktick… The Caps have played good “60 minutes” games against the Bruins, closing fact in all three games. In the first two they scored a total of five goals in the third period (to Boston’s one), and scored the winner in overtime in the other game. It will be especially hard to maintain focus for 60 minutes on a day like this, but if there is one team with less to play for than the Caps, it might be Boston. At least the Caps have the possibility of getting Alex Ovechkin a couple of league-leader finishes (points, goals).
3. Win. For what it’s worth, each of the last three Stanley Cup winners won their last regular season game. The last one not to win was Carolina, but Martin Gerber was in goal for that one (a 4-0 loss to Buffalo), and he didn’t make it through the first round as the Hurricanes’ netminder.
In the end, it’s hard what to make of this game. These teams could meet in the second round of the playoffs if the Bruins are the lowest seed to win in the first round. So you would have to reach a bit to think of this as a “statement” game. Boston remains a team finding it difficult to score and difficult to convert power plays (when they get them; they averaged barely three chances a game over their last 16 games). It’s hard to see the Bruins getting more than two, except by fluke. And it’s hard to see the Caps getting fewer than three, because it has happened only four times their 19 games since the Olympics. Sounds like how it will end up…
Caps 3 – Bruins 2
Saturday, April 10, 2010
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