There are seven other series in the first round of the Stanley Cup tournament. You already have our picks for the Caps/Rangers series. Now, for the others in the East…
Philadelphia (2nd seed, 47-23-12) vs. Buffalo (7th seed; 43-29-10)
Theme: Big, bad bullies versus the shifty shrimps with the great goalie.
Why Philly will win: Against a great goalie, it helps to be able to attack him with depth, not allowing him a breather of a shift. The Flyers might have the deepest set of skaters in the NHL, certainly in the East. Eighteen skaters with at least ten points, six with at least 20 goals. They can put a 20-goal guy on the third line (James van Riemsdyk, who has 21) and a ten goal guy on the fourth line (Andreas Nodl, who has 11).
Why Philly won’t win: A lot of attention is being paid to whether Chris Pronger will or won’t dress for this or that game in this series, and truth be told, the Flyers don’t seem the same without him in the lineup. They finished the season 6-4-4 after Pronger went out of the lineup with a broken right hand. It will be a factor and perhaps a force multiplier for a bigger problem. Sergei Bobrovsky has never started a playoff game in goal in North America. He gets the call to start the series. He did not end the season well, going 0-2-2 in his last five appearances with a 3.27 GAA and .892 save percentage.
Flyer on the hot seat: Mike Richards. With Chris Pronger out, Richards takes on a bigger leadership role (one that he might share with Pronger under normal circumstances, even though Richards wears the “C”). He struggled down the stretch, going 2-3-5, minus-3 in his last nine games (over which the Flyers were 3-4-2), and he has a total of four goals in his last 21 games.
Why Buffalo will win: Ryan Miller. The defending Vezina Trophy winner did not start the season well (3-5-2 in his first ten games), but he ended it well, going 5-1-1, 1.90, .937 and two shutouts over his last eight appearances.
Why Buffalo won’t win: Miller suffered an “upper body” injury against Toronto on March 29th and played only 51:48 in his next two appearances (he stopped 28 of 29 shots in doing it). If there is any lingering discomfort, the Flyers will only add to that discomfort with their ability to get production from anywhere in their lineup.
Sabre on the hot seat: Thomas Vanek. The Sabre left wing closed with a rush, going 9-12-21, plus-11 in his last 17 games. He is going to have to keep up that sort of pace to help offset the depth in scoring the Flyers can bring to the series.
Ryan Miller does a better job of holding off the Flyers than Sergei Bobrovsky (or Brian Boucher, who will get significant time in this series) does against Buffalo.
Buffalo in six.
Boston (3rd seed; 46-25-11) vs. Montreal (6th seed; 44-30-8)
Theme: A series that looks better on paper than it is likely to be.
Why Boston will win: Tim Thomas. The unconventional Thomas led the league in GAA (2.00), save percentage (.938) and pitched a shutout in almost one of every six starts he had this season (nine in 55 starts). He had a couple of hiccups down the stretch in allowing three goals to Toronto in a 4-3 Gimmick loss to Toronto and four goals in a 5-3 loss to the Rangers, but even with those bumps he was still 6-1-1 in his last eight appearances with a 1.49 GAA, .949 save percentage and two shutouts, one of them coming against the team he faces in this round.
Why Boston won’t win: Since Thomas got that shutout of Montreal (a 7-0 win on March 24th), the Bruins are 5-3-1, but they have some trouble finding the back of the net. In their last nine games of the season following that win Boston averaged 2.44 goals per game, and their power play was only 3-for-22 (13.6 percent).
Bruin on the hot seat: Nathan Horton. Horton had a solid year in his first season with the Bruins after spending six seasons with Florida. But this is his first NHL post season (his first post-season, in fact, since he was at Oshawa back in 2003). His 26-27-53, plus-29 level of performance during the regular season…does he have that in him with the lights shining a little brighter on him?
Why Montreal will win: The Canadiens seem to have righted a ship that was in danger of taking on too much water to make a splash in the playoffs. In late March they lost three consecutive games, each by shutout (to Boston, Buffalo, and the Caps), but the Habs finished up 4-1-1. Special teams improved down the stretch -- their power play came alive in the last ten days of the season, going 6-for-15 in the last five games (40.0 percent), and the penalty killers are 32-for-34 (94.1 percent) over their last nine games.
Why Montreal won’t win: If you look at those games down the stretch after they were shut out in three straight games, that 4-1-1 record was built on a pile of sand. Only one win came against a playoff team (a 2-1 overtime win over Chicago). They were 2-5-0 in their last seven games against playoff teams. And Carey Price has been like the little girl with the curl lately. When he’s good, he’s very good (he hasn’t allowed more than two goals in a win since December 16th, a total of 20 wins), but when he’s not, he’s bad (of his 19 losses in regulation over the same period he allowed more than three goals 11 times). That’s a hard formula to get to four wins in a seven-game series.
Canadien on the hot seat: Scott Gomez. The Canadien center is the guy you remember in high school – quarterback of the football team, class president, prom king, valedictorian. Then you see him at the ten year reunion and ask, “dude, what happened? You let yourself go.” Gomez averaged 17-48-65 in six years with New Jersey (with a 33-goal year thrown in there) to start his career. This year, 7 goals and a minus-15 (worst plus-minus on the club). He hasn’t had a goal since February 5th, a 29-game drought. Even with that, he has it in him to perform at this level (he had 14 points in 19 playoff games last season), but he has to show it in this series.
It will be a competitive series, but frankly, neither team is playing well enough to go on a deep run. Thomas has more saves in him than does Price.
Boston in six
Pittsburgh (4th seed; 49-25-8) versus Tampa Bay (5th seed; 46-25-11)
Theme: Sidney, Sidney, wherefore art thou, Sidney?
Why Pittsburgh will win: There might not be a more resilient, nor a better coached team at the moment than the Penguins. Dan Bylsma has gotten just about everything he could out of a lineup lacking two of the top five talents in hockey (Yevgeni Malkin’s consistent application of that talent – or lack thereof – notwithstanding). It says a lot about Bylsma’s coaching that Sidney Crosby finished the season as the Penguins’ leading scorer by miles (66 points to Kris Letang’s 50), despite Crosby playing in only 41 games.
Why Pittsburgh won’t win: The object is getting to “four” first. And to do that a club needs some semblance of balance in scoring and defense. There are nights when one has to bail the other out. It is hard to see how an offense that lacks anything resembling a go-to guy (even Jordan Staal, who played in only 42 games, would not be a “60-point” player over a full season at his scoring pace) cobbles together four wins. No team in the first round puts more pressure on its defense and goaltending than do the Penguins.
Penguin on the hot seat: Chris Kunitz. Kunitz led all Penguins not named “Crosby” in goals (23), despite playing in only 66 games. He is probably the poster boy for the Penguins at the moment – a hard-working, tough as nails cuss who, if you are an opponent, hate to play against, and if you are a fan of the opposition, simply hate. But with all that grit, he produces…except lately. Kunitz finished the regular season with one goal in his last eight games, the wrong time to go cold on a team that has to squeeze goals from all over the lineup.
Why Tampa Bay will win: They average almost three goals a game, and their power play hummed along at more than 20 percent for the season. They are also coming into the tournament on a roll, having gone 7-1-0 to close the regular season. Their oft-maligned defense allowed only 14 goals in those eight games (four of them coming in their only loss, a 4-2 loss to Buffalo).
Why Tampa Bay will not win: Goaltending. Dwayne Roloson had respectable numbers with the Lightning (18-12-4, four shutouts, 2.56, .912), but his save percentage was actually better in the 20 games he played with the Islanders (.916) to start the season. He had a memorable playoff performance in 2006 with Edmonton, leading the oilers to the finals while compiling a 12-5, 2.33, .927 mark. But does he have that in him? The Tampa Bay offense carries their goaltending more than most teams competing for the Stanley Cup, which relieves some of the burden. The break Roloson gets is in the opponent for this round, who has to be on top of its game to cobble together goals in the absence of high-end offensive skill.
Lightning on the hot seat: Steven Stamkos. Has the third-year player run out of gas? On February 6th, Stamkos scored his 40th goal of the season in his 54th game, putting him on a pace for 61 for the season. He finished with five in his last 28 games (a 15-goal pace). If the early-season Stamkos shows up, Pittsburgh doesn’t have a counter-punch, unless Crosby returns and steps right into his mid-season form. If the late-season Stamkos is what the Lightning get, Pittsburgh can cobble together enough goals to win.
Tampa Bay looks a little bit too much like last year’s Caps to really make a dent in the playoffs, but Pittsburgh is just so dented all over the lineup. Before it’s over, this might be the most compelling series in the first round, a contest of wills – Tampa’s flash and youthful exuberance against Pittsburgh’s battle-tested and cobbled-together lineup. Bylsma would get our vote for the Jack Adams Award, but we have a hard time seeing how he gets his team to “four” in this one (unless there is a miracle involving the number “87”). Over the last decade or so, the first round in the East has almost always had a lower seeded team (or three) jump a higher seeded team. We have two in this year's edition, and this is the other one.
Tampa Bay in seven
And there you have it...Round One. As always, do not use these picks for cash wagering. Save your money for Powerball.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Capitals vs. Rangers
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Welcome, dear reader, to the first, last, and only prognosticatorial preview you need or want for the first round matchup of the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers. We are here with our crack staff of researchers, analysts, and pundits to bring you every meaningful nugget of information you’ll need when you sit down to worry yourself silly over whether the Washington Capitals can escape the first round of the playoffs for only the ninth time in the 36-year history of the franchise.
What a difference a year – and a pistol-whipping in the first round last year – makes. Last year, we said this about the Caps’ first round series against the Montreal Canadiens:
“There are no sure things when it comes to the Caps, but in the end Montreal is coming into the series with a hope (that they get a lot of power play chances) and a prayer (that [Jaroslav] Halak finds his inner Dryden). It will not be nearly enough against a team with many more weapons.”
Well, Montreal did not get a lot of power play chances (they had 30 in seven games to the Caps’ 33), but Halak did find his inner Dryden to become merely the latest “hot goalie” to send the Caps home frustrated. And that serves as ominous foreshadowing to this series, but we will get to that in a bit. First things first.
The View from 30,000 Feet
The Caps finished with four more wins overall, eight more wins in regulation and overtime, and 14 more standings points than their opponent in this series. If you look at the overall numbers, though, you would wonder how that came to be:
There appears to be little difference between the teams in terms of rankings. Both are middle-third in terms of scoring rankings, both are top-five in preventing goals. Both are efficient, if not especially outstanding in 5-on-5 play. Both have had issues on their respective power plays. If there is a bit of daylight between these teams, the Caps are among the elite penalty killing squads in the NHL this year (how many of you thought I would type THAT sentence this season?), while the Rangers are merely good in that regard.
The Caps have also shown themselves to be the most adept team in the NHL in dealing with adversity, to the extent you measure such a thing as falling behind first. It was the second consecutive season in which the Caps finished first in winning percentage when allowing the first goal, the third straight year in which they finished in the top-five, and the fourth straight in which they finished in the top ten. If there is a smudge on that record that Caps fans might beware of, it is that the Caps have had so many opportunities to polish that record this season. They allowed the first goal 47 times. Only Toronto, Colorado, Edmonton, and the New York Islanders had it happen more often. It should not escape anyone’s notice that none of those teams made the playoffs.
The Rangers, on the other hand are both symmetrical in that regard (scoring the first goal 41 times, allowing the first goal 41 times) and reliable in their outcomes (score first, they win; trail first, they lose…pretty much like most NHL teams).
The takeaway here is that if the Rangers score first, it isn’t a dire situation for the Caps (although the Rangers did score first in three of the four games in the season series). If the season as a whole is a guide, the Rangers might not be as resilient if the Caps score first.
Special Teams
There is a number not included in that table above that would come leaping off the page had it been there:
257
That is the number of times the New York Rangers have found themselves shorthanded this season, third fewest in the NHL and lowest among all Eastern Conference playoff teams. Compare that with this set of numbers:
27-3-4
That is the Caps’ record in which they score at least one power play goal. This is the fault line on which this series is going to be decided – the Caps ability to get power play opportunities (and the Rangers’ ability to avoid providing them) and convert on those they do get.
These clubs are really almost indistinguishable in other goal scoring/goal prevention respects. In the most common side-versus-side situations, the Caps have scored 185 goals at 5-on-5 and 5-on-4, the Rangers have scored 194. Goals allowed – the Caps have allowed 173 at 5-on-5 and 4-on-5, while the Rangers have allowed 170. So here, the Caps power play versus the Rangers ability to avoid them, is where the differences are stark. The Caps have huge success in games in which they score power play goals, and the Rangers are adept at preventing those opportunities. If you are looking at where this series is going to be won or lost, this is where you might pay closest attention.
The Series
It is tempting to take a look back at the season series to divine nuggets of wisdom with respect to how well these teams match up against one another. But this has been an odd season series, even by Capitals/Rangers standards. For the Caps, it might have been four different seasons instead of four different games.
Game 1, a 5-3 Capitals win on November 9th, might be characterized as “Old Caps” in that the score harkened back to games the Caps played last year of a more high-scoring nature. But it was odd in that two Ranger goals were scored by Brian Boyle (who had never scored more than four in any season previously; he finished with 21 this season) and one by Derek Boogaard, who had last scored a goal when Pangaea broke apart. Brooks Laich had two goals – his only two-goal game of the season. Not a lot to take away from that other than if Brian Boyle is a goal-scoring force in this series, the Caps are in trouble. And if Brooks Laich is a goal-scoring force, Caps fans can think about a second-round opponent.
Game 2, a 7-0 blowout for the Blueshirts on December 12th. Again, you think Brandon Prust, who scored the first goal in that game, is going to be a factor in this series? If he is, well, golf is nice this time of year. That game actually started tame, a 1-0 Ranger lead on Prust’s goal in the first 20 minutes. But then the Rangers got one in the first minute of the second, then two more before the period was five minutes old. Then they got a shorthanded goal…from a defenseman (Marc Staal). The Caps could take solace that it wasn’t Staal’s first shortie of his career. It wasn’t even his first shorthanded this goal this season. That came against Pittsburgh on November 15th. Big deal. Not even Alex Ovechkin swapping fists with Brandon Dubinsky could save this disaster. Oh, and don’t forget, it was caught in living color for the HBO cameras for the 24/7 series, for f**k’s sake (points to those who get the Ovechkin reference there).
At least the Caps held the Rangers to one goal in Game 3. Trouble is, they only got one of their own and couldn’t make it stand up when the Rangers tied things with less than seven minutes left in regulation. Artem Anisimov scored on a trick shot for the Rangers to get the second standings point, but even the silver lining for the Caps – that rookie goalie Braden Holtby allowed only one goal on 29 shots – isn’t a takeaway from that one. Holtby is getting ready to lead the Hershey Bears into the Calder Cup playoffs.
Game 4 was another stinker, a 6-0 blowout on Verizon Center ice. And the goal scorers – Steve Eminger (who might not get a sweater in this playoff series) credited with the game winner, that Boyle fellow again, and Erik Christensen had two (part of a four-point night). Where did the Rangers find these guys? It was also the last game Mike Green played in the regular season, the victim of a hit by Derek Stepan that left him with a concussion or an upper body injury, depending on your choice of news source.
The takeaway from that last game and the series for the Rangers is that the Rangers’ offense is opportunistic. They spread it around, too, with five 20-goal scorers. The problem is that one of them – Ryan Callahan – is out with a broken ankle suffered in typical Ranger fashion, blocking shots. That will leave quite a hole.
The takeaway for the Caps in this series is the last game. It might have been the worst game the Caps played all year (even in the 7-0 loss at Madison Square Garden in December was largely the result of an early second-period avalanche of goals – those things happen from time to time). The Caps would go 16-3-1 to finish the season from there, however, and lose only one game in regulation in which they scored a goal, that coming in a 3-2 loss in Detroit (a 2-0 loss to Ottawa and a season-ending 1-0 loss to Florida being the other losses in regulation).
Competition
Since the 6-0 ambush on February 25th, the Caps have that 16-3-1 record. But more than that, they are 6-1-0 against teams in the Stanley Cup tournament in that stretch. The Rangers are 11-7-1 over the same stretch of games, 7-4-0 against teams in the playoffs.
Goaltending
We’ve already covered Henrik Lundqvist, and you might have read our opinion on who the Caps should start in net. We’ll leave those pieces speak for themselves (noting, of course, that it will be Michal Neuvirth getting the call for the Caps).
Coaching
At first glance, two more different coaches you won’t find than the Capitals’ Bruce Boudreau and the Rangers’ John Tortorella. The volcanic Tortorella might have cost his team the first round series in the 2009 playoffs against the Caps when he decided (or impulsively) had fun with beverage containers. But his team this season has his personality – scrappy, gritty, with a look that might suggest, “yeah, I’ll have another helping of nails and wood screws…keep ‘em comin’.”
Boudreau on the other hand, is demonstrative, flamboyant (at least to the extent of his preferred way of running a hockey team with a press-offense), and by appearances a lot more sociable. But he has changed the personality of his team to instill a pride in protecting its own end of the ice, a change that comes from drawing a bright line all the way back to the 7-0 pasting the Caps took at MSG in December. Since then the Caps have allowed barely two goals per game (2.02 to be exact).
Much might be made of whether Boudreau has the in-game capacity to adjust on the fly, but given where we think this game is going to be decided, we think that for the Caps the important piece of coaching could come in terms of whether Boudreau has found something in film to discover a new or more effective sort of wrinkle on the power play to exploit what weaknesses the Rangers might have.
Players you expect to do well…and had better
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
Let’s face it, the voices only get louder from here if Ovechkin doesn’t at least go deep into a Stanley Cup tournament...does he have what it takes? Fair or not, that’s the price that comes with being the Captain and being (depending on which city you live in) one of the top five players in the game. Lost in the noise is that Ovechkin is 20-20-40, plus-14 in 28 career playoff games. He hasn’t shrunk from the spotlight. He’s going to have to dominate it in this series.
New York: Marian Gaborik
Ryan Callahan was the sort of heart and soul player that embodied Rangers hockey this season. Gaborik, not so much. He missed 20 games this season, but a bigger problem is that he doesn’t have a goal in his last nine games and does not have a goal in his last six playoff games (all with Minnesota). If those streaks continue, the Rangers don’t have a lot of other options on offense.
Players you might not think of as possible heroes…
Washington: Matt Hendricks
Matt Hendricks might be remembered more for the bloody eye and stitched cheek he sustained in a fight in the December game against the Rangers (captured in grisly color for the HBO 24/7 series), but he also has two of the Caps’ six goals in the season series, and he has nine hits in the series. He can be the sort of productive fireplug to counter the Rangers’ productive feistiness.
New York: Artem Anisimov
A player of considerable offensive skill, the worry here is that Artem Anisimov, who has only one game of playoff experience in the NHL, will discover his clutch game in this series. The potential is there – he improved his goal scoring from 12 last season to 18 this season. But he is also oh-for-his-last-nine games in goal scoring. Caps fans will hope that whole clutch thing surfaces next year.
In the end, we are thinking a little too much is being made of the season series between these teams in that the four games were very distinct and separate in terms of the takeaways. Except for Ranger wins, there wasn’t a consistent theme in the last three that says, “yes, the Rangers are better in this area.” Save one. Henrik Lundqvist. We think this series boils down to the Caps solving Lundqvist (who is quite good enough without having to discover his inner Dryden) enough – specifically with goals scored from in close on power plays. If the Caps can do that dirty work, they win. If they don’t, they don’t. And with Lundqvist having carried the Rangers on his inflated chest protector over the last 26 games, the matter becomes one of whether he has at least four more wins in him or not. Guess what we think the answer to that question is.
Caps in five
Monday, April 11, 2011
The King's the Thing
A lot of folks might agree at this point that the Capitals/Rangers first round playoff matchup is going to boil down to one player – Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist. In three starts against the Caps this season, King Henrik is 2-1-0, 1.34, .955, with two shutouts. He has stopped the last 67 shots he has faced off Capitals’ sticks this season. Last spring, the Caps were “Halak’ed” in the last three games of the first round playoff series against Montreal, as Jaroslav Halak put the Canadiens on his back and stopped almost everything the Caps threw at him to allow Montreal to win a series they trailed three games to one. This year, the Caps could find themselves “King’ed” by Lundqvist. He certainly has the chops to pull off such an achievement, but his season numbers against the Caps aside, which Lundqvist shows up in this series is key.
“Which Lundqvist,” you ask? Well, consider that with the injury sustained by backup goaltender Martin Biron back in February, Lundqvist was forced by the Rangers’ uncertain playoff chances to play in the last 26 games of the season. His performance was nothing short of heroic, to the extent you can use that term in sports. In those 26 games, Lundqvist had what might be looked at as an unimpressive 15-10-1 mark, but he was 9-3-1 down the stretch. He also finished those 26 games with a 2.16 goals against average, a .924 save percentage, and four shutouts. You would have to say he met the challenge and begins the playoffs at the top of his game.
Or can you? Embedded in that 26-game run of excellence, there is the matter of his last five games. But let’s back up a bit. Before those last five games, Lundqvist had a run of four contests in which he surrendered a total of two goals on 113 shots and pitched two shutouts, going 3-0-1 in the process. It might have been the pinnacle of his season. But after that – in his last five games to finish the regular season – he has gone 3-2-0, 2.96, .899.
Has the pressure and physical toll that goes with 26 straight starts for a team fighting for its playoff life chipped enough away from his performance level to make him merely mortal as the playoff series against the Caps begins? You might get a clue early. Lundqvist has three wins in his last three tries in Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs (against Atlanta, New Jersey, and Washington).
Which Henrik will show up? On the answer to that question, the Caps’ season might turn.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Two Goalies...One Net
The problem with starting a season with two young, promising goaltenders is that both will fail to measure up to their respective potential. A team can address that situation by finding a solution in the trade market in February.
Well, that’s one problem with having two promising goalies. The other is that both play up to their potential when they are in the lineup. You don’t take the safe out of finding a solution at the deadline, because you don’t need one. But what you are left with is that when the time comes to make a decision between two young, promising goaltenders who have played well, there isn’t much separation between them to give you a clear-cut basis to make a decision.
And so we have Exhibits A and B as an illustration of the second problem – Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov. Caps fans have their favorites, be he “Neuvy” or “Varly,” but the time for a decision on who to turn to in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals has come, and sentiment isn’t an option in making that choice. So, who is it?
The 100,000-foot numbers
Neuvirth has more wins (27) and more standings points per appearance (1.23) than does Varlamov (11 and 1.00). Varlamov has a better GAA (2.23) and save percentage (.924) than does Neuvirth (2.49 and .913). You could argue that it is winning that matters, and that Neuvirth has done that more often per appearance than Varlamov. However, you might say that Neuvirth has been the beneficiary of better luck from other factors (goal support, quality of opponent faced) than Varlamov. The usual numbers are debating points in a bar argument, not a means to decide.
Winning!
Neuvirth has not lost more than two games in regulation consecutively this season, and that happened twice (December 11th and 18 against Colorado and Boston, the other being February 8th and 14th against San Jose and Phoenix). On the other hand, he has four streaks of at least four wins in a row this season, the latest broken last night in a game with little meaning in the larger picture for the Caps.
On the other hand, Varlamov has only two streaks of consecutive wins this season – a four-game streak in late November/early December and a three game streak that ended with the Winter Classic win over Pittsburgh. Those two streaks account for seven of Varlamov’s 11 wins this season.
Breakdown by Period
There is a train of thought that suggests that Michal Neuvirth closes out games effectively. His numbers to not hold up to scrutiny on that score. If you look at his goals against average and save percentage by period, it breaks down as follows:
1st period: 2.73/.906
2nd period: 2.25/.925
3rd period: 2.44/.908
Overtime: 1.22/.960
While Neuvirth has not had the kind of third period folks might have assumed he had, he was lights out in overtime. That overtime record is rather remarkable. He lost only one game in overtime this season (that against Florida, a 4-3 loss on January 11th). In the other 11 overtime games in which he played, he either won in overtime or got the Caps to the Gimmick phase. One goal on 25 shots in overtime is rather impressive.
The flip side is that Neuvirth has been a comparatively slow starter in games. His worst GAA comes in the first period (2.73) as well as his worst save percentage (.906). The Caps have the league’s best record when trailing first. In some respects, it is a good thing they do, because they have been getting some less than top-notch goaltending early in games from Neuvirth.
Varlamov has had a different sort of performance by period:
1st period: 1.18/.958
2nd period: 3.00/.911
3rd period: 2.23/.911
Overtime: 7.81/.800
You could almost think of it as a mirror image of Neuvirth’s. Varlamov has been very efficient to open games, allowing only ten first period goals all season and shutting teams out in the first frame 19 times in 26 tries. One of the curiosities in his record, though, is in facing so few shots in the third period. On a per-60 minute basis, what he faced in the third period this season works out to a less-than-25 shots per 60 minutes rate. And his third period performance has not been comforting lately. Seven goals allowed on the last 38 shots faced in the third period (.816 save percentage) over five appearances.
That overtime mark stands out somewhat, as well, given the nature of the season on which the Caps are about to embark. Five times Varlamov has gone to an overtime session this season, he has allowed the winning goal in three of them. It is a small group of games to select from, but it is what we have this season. It is not necessarily confidence-inspiring.
Wake-Up Call
Both Neuvirth and Varlamov have had grisly games against the Rangers this season. Neuvirth allowed six goals on 28 shots in a 6-0 loss to New York on February 25th. Since then, however, Neuvirth is 9-2-0 in 12 appearances with a 2.16 GAA and .925 save percentage with a shutout.
Varlamov allowed seven goals on 20 shots in a 7-0 loss to the Rangers on December 12th. Since then he is 7-5-5 in 18 appearances with a 2.03 GAA and .932 save percentage with one shutout. Sometimes, a talented youngster needs a kick in the backside sort of reality check, and those two games against the Rangers might have served that purpose for each of them.
Post Season Competition
Although Neuvirth has appeared in many more games this season than has Varlamov (48 to 27), they have similar numbers of decisions against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference – Neuvirth has 12 decisions against such teams, and Varlamov has 11 decisions. And here, there is separation between the two:
Neuvirth: 7-3-2, 2.93, .900, 2 SO
Varlamov: 5-3-3, 2.09, .929, 2 SO
Varlamov has come up bigger against the tougher competition, although he does not have as much to show for it in terms of wins and losses. And, he has played better against a wider range of potential playoff opponents, having a season save percentage of at least .949 against four of the seven other Eastern playoff teams. On the other hand, Neuvirth has shined against Pittsburgh (2-0-1 with a .977 save percentage) but struggled against Boston (.810), the Rangers (.839), and Philadelphia (.882). Again, we are talking about small numbers of events here, perhaps one or two games against any single opponent, but overall Varlamov has done a better job against the class of playoff eligibles than has Neuvirth. Of course, each had their own disastrous game against the Caps’ first round opponent, Varlamov allowing seven to the Rangers in a single game and Neuvirth allowing six in a single game.
So, who is it going to be? Michal Neuvirth might be the Capitals’ most valuable player for the way he stepped in and stepped up to start the season and get the Caps off on the right foot after their disappointing early exit last spring. Semyon Varlamov struggled with health issues that limited him to 27 appearances, but in those 27 appearances he allowed more than two goals only eight times, only four times in 18 appearances since he was lit up for those seven goals against the Rangers in December.
Among the concerns are Neuvirth’s starts in games (that .906 save percentage and goals allowed 29 times in 47 first periods played this season) and Varlamov’s finishes (.911 save percentage in the third period and .800 in overtime).
Let us be clear here. There is no “bad” choice to be made. The Caps do not have, as one wag put it, “legitimately below-average goaltending.” Spin or massage the numbers all you want, the object of the exercise is to keep pucks out of the net, and both Neuvirth and Varlamov have done just that, so far. But the object of the exercise now is to win one game four times and repeat that four times over the next two months. Which goalie gives the Caps a better chance to win one game, given the opponent and the circumstances?
All things equal – and that really comes down to health (Varlamov’s in particular) – Varlamov brings just a little more to the table than does Neuvirth. He has a better save percentage at both even strength (.930 to .922) and defending the power play (.892 to .885), and he has had somewhat better numbers against stiffer competition. He has been just a little better down the stretch leading up to the playoffs. The luxury the Caps have that other teams (particularly the Rangers, who started Henrik Lundqvist 26 straight times to close the season) do not is that they have a credible number two guy who can perform at a playoff level. Both have performed at that level down the stretch. And that is why there really is no “bad” choice to be made here. But that choice, by a slim margin, should be Semyon Varlamov.
Ask Not For Whom The Puck Tolls
In eleven seasons since the NHL went to a six-division format, at least one lower seed has defeated a higher seed in the first round of the Eastern Conference side of the Stanley Cup tournament:
2010: MTL over WAS; BOS over BUF; PHI over NJD
2009: CAR over NJD
2008: NJD over NYR; PHI over WAS
2007: NYR over ATL
2006: none
2004: MTL over BOS
2003: none
2002: OTT over PHI; MTL over BOS
2001: BUF over PHI; PIT over WAS; TOR over OTT
2000: PIT over WAS
1999: BOS over CAR; BUF over OTT; PIT over NJD
Chances are, one of Washington, Philadelphia, Boston, or Pittsburgh is going to fall in Round 1. So...who will it be?
2010: MTL over WAS; BOS over BUF; PHI over NJD
2009: CAR over NJD
2008: NJD over NYR; PHI over WAS
2007: NYR over ATL
2006: none
2004: MTL over BOS
2003: none
2002: OTT over PHI; MTL over BOS
2001: BUF over PHI; PIT over WAS; TOR over OTT
2000: PIT over WAS
1999: BOS over CAR; BUF over OTT; PIT over NJD
Chances are, one of Washington, Philadelphia, Boston, or Pittsburgh is going to fall in Round 1. So...who will it be?
Saturday, April 09, 2011
A NO-point night -- Game 82: Panthers 1 - Caps 0
That's pretty much it.
What...you were expecting analysis after that?!
Never...
Ed Frankovic asked via Twitter whether if the Rangers did not make the playoffs, would it be the first time ever that all three new three New York area teams missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs since the Devils joined the New York area NHL franchises. As a matter of fact, it would be the first time...
With the outcome uncertain at this hour as to the Rangers' chances, there is still a chance that the New York area will be represented in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And there is a chance they will not...for the first time in quite some time and the first time since the Devils joined the mix in the New York metropolitan area.
With the outcome uncertain at this hour as to the Rangers' chances, there is still a chance that the New York area will be represented in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And there is a chance they will not...for the first time in quite some time and the first time since the Devils joined the mix in the New York metropolitan area.
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps at Panthers, April 9th
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
He’s taking a maintenance day to get ready for the playoffs?
That’s when your team has clinched all it’s going to clinch, and you get to sit home and eat Doritos while the scrubs write the blog.
Well, for tonight, Cheerless.
Why is that?
Well, we’ve got work to do first. Let’s see. Peerless usually starts off with some lame intro that is supposed to be funny or informative. OK, let’s see… Says here that there are more than three million people in Florida aged 65 and older.
Picture them playing hockey…
Well, not quite that funny. Actually, it has been a rather sad season for the folks playing professional hockey in south Florida this year. It all comes to a merciful end tonight.
Oh, yeah. Here’s how they compare to the Caps:
That’s because it isn’t Cheerless. The Panthers don’t score, don’t compete well at 5-on-5, have a really bad power play, they’ve lost ten in a row (0-7-3), and since January 15th are 8-20-10.
Nah, Peerless did them for the game last Wednesday, and it hasn’t changed much.
Yup. David Booth got a goal in that Caps game on Wednesday to hit 40 points, and Mike Santorelli had a goal, too. Then Santorelli had a goal and an assist against Tampa Bay last night…
Yes, in another loss, to hit 41 points.
That’s one reason they’re so bad, Cheerless.
Well, with the Eastern Conference title now in hand, this is probably a game the Caps just as soon would rather be cancelled. But the league frowns on that sort of thing, and they’ve got to ice a team. The mystery is in wondering just who gets the night off. John Carlson might be getting that night off. Jason Arnott, too. Perhaps Scott Hannan.
That there will, Cheerless. And there might even be a milestone or two to be had among them. For instance…
-- If Alex Ovechkin dresses and gets two power play goals, it will make it an even 100 power play goals for his career. If he gets one, he will break his tie with Mike Gartner for second all-time on the Caps power play goal-scoring list. Both currently have 98.
-- If Ovechkin finishes tonight at least plus-1 he will pass Scott Stevens on the all-time Caps plus-minus list (both are currently plus-88 for their careers with the Caps). If Nicklas Backstrom does no worse than minus-1 he will keep his hold on second on that list (Backstrom is currently plus-90)…unless Ovechkin finishes ahead of him.
-- If Alexander Semin plays and records two goals and no assists, he will finish the regular season with the somewhat odd career to date line of 178 goals and 178 assists. It would also mean he finishes with his fourth 30-plus goal season in the last five.
-- If Mike Knuble gets a pair of goals, and Olli Jokinen gets none in his final game of the season, Knuble will pass Jokinen for 27th place in career goals among active players.
-- If Jason Chimera should pot two goals, it would make 100 for his career.
-- If Matt Hendricks should be whistled for at least five minutes in penalties, it will make 200 PIMs for his career. If he gets a goal, he will be the ninth Caps to hit the ten-goal mark this season.
-- If Boyd Gordon gets a point tonight, it will make for 19 Caps with at least ten points this season. If ether Jason Arnott or Marco Sturm get three, they would join that club, too.
-- If Tyler Sloan gets a jersey, it will be his 100th NHL game.
-- If Ovechkin scores in overtime, he will take over the franchise record in overtime goals scored in a season. Mike Green currently holds the record with three overtime markers. If he gets the game-winner (in overtime or otherwise), he will finish with the second highest number of game winners scored in a season (Peter Bondra had 13 in 1997-1998). He is currently tied for second on that list with Mike Gartner (both with 11, Gartner having done it in 1984-1985), Ovechkin having now done it twice, the other time being in 2007-2008.
-- Seven different Caps have shorthanded goals this season. None of them, though, have more than one.
-- If Michal Neuvirth gets the call in goal tonight and shuts out the Panthers, it will make five shutouts for the season. That will tie him for second in franchise history for shutouts in a season (currently shared between Olaf Kolzig, who did it three times, and Don Beaupre), and it would break the tie he now has with Jim Carey for shutouts by a Capitals rookie.
-- If Semyon Varlamov sits out tonight’s game, he will end the year with the highest save percentage in Caps history (.924, besting Olaf Kolzig’s .920 in 1997-1998). If he plays and faces 30 shots, he can allow as many as four goals and still finish on top in save percentage for a season. Florida hasn’t scored four goals in a game since their last win… on St. Patrick’s Day.
-- In the “close, but no cigar” category, were Varlamov to get the call in goal tonight and win a 1-0 decision in a Gimmick, he would finish the season with a 2.14 GAA. Jim Carey holds the club record of 2.13…
…unless you count the goalie who isn’t here. Fourteen games (12 starts) isn’t a lot to go on, but Braden Holtby ended his season with a GAA of 1.79 and a save percentage of .934. Both would be team records for a season were he to qualify.
You in a hurry, Cheerless?
Cheerless, you’re about as bright as a bowl of bean dip.
…yeesh.
Uh, cuz? Where’s Peerless??
He’s taking a maintenance day to get ready for the playoffs?
What’s a “maintenance day,” Fearless?
That’s when your team has clinched all it’s going to clinch, and you get to sit home and eat Doritos while the scrubs write the blog.
And we’re the scrubs?
Well, for tonight, Cheerless.
Doesn’t seem fair.
Why is that?
I could go for some Doritos.
Well, we’ve got work to do first. Let’s see. Peerless usually starts off with some lame intro that is supposed to be funny or informative. OK, let’s see… Says here that there are more than three million people in Florida aged 65 and older.
What’s funny about that, cuz?
Picture them playing hockey…
Yeah, that is funny. They'd look like the Florida Panthers.
Well, not quite that funny. Actually, it has been a rather sad season for the folks playing professional hockey in south Florida this year. It all comes to a merciful end tonight.
Hey, do that table thing Peerless does…
Oh, yeah. Here’s how they compare to the Caps:
Doesn’t look good, cuz…
That’s because it isn’t Cheerless. The Panthers don’t score, don’t compete well at 5-on-5, have a really bad power play, they’ve lost ten in a row (0-7-3), and since January 15th are 8-20-10.
So, you gonna do those player previews?
Nah, Peerless did them for the game last Wednesday, and it hasn’t changed much.
Yeah, well at least the Panthers have two 40-point scorers who will play in this game.
Yup. David Booth got a goal in that Caps game on Wednesday to hit 40 points, and Mike Santorelli had a goal, too. Then Santorelli had a goal and an assist against Tampa Bay last night…
In another loss.
Yes, in another loss, to hit 41 points.
But they’re a combined minus-48, cuz.
That’s one reason they’re so bad, Cheerless.
What about the Caps?
Well, with the Eastern Conference title now in hand, this is probably a game the Caps just as soon would rather be cancelled. But the league frowns on that sort of thing, and they’ve got to ice a team. The mystery is in wondering just who gets the night off. John Carlson might be getting that night off. Jason Arnott, too. Perhaps Scott Hannan.
But there will be 18 skaters and two goalies dressing for the Caps, won’t there, Fearless?
That there will, Cheerless. And there might even be a milestone or two to be had among them. For instance…
-- If Alex Ovechkin dresses and gets two power play goals, it will make it an even 100 power play goals for his career. If he gets one, he will break his tie with Mike Gartner for second all-time on the Caps power play goal-scoring list. Both currently have 98.
-- If Ovechkin finishes tonight at least plus-1 he will pass Scott Stevens on the all-time Caps plus-minus list (both are currently plus-88 for their careers with the Caps). If Nicklas Backstrom does no worse than minus-1 he will keep his hold on second on that list (Backstrom is currently plus-90)…unless Ovechkin finishes ahead of him.
-- If Alexander Semin plays and records two goals and no assists, he will finish the regular season with the somewhat odd career to date line of 178 goals and 178 assists. It would also mean he finishes with his fourth 30-plus goal season in the last five.
-- If Mike Knuble gets a pair of goals, and Olli Jokinen gets none in his final game of the season, Knuble will pass Jokinen for 27th place in career goals among active players.
-- If Jason Chimera should pot two goals, it would make 100 for his career.
-- If Matt Hendricks should be whistled for at least five minutes in penalties, it will make 200 PIMs for his career. If he gets a goal, he will be the ninth Caps to hit the ten-goal mark this season.
-- If Boyd Gordon gets a point tonight, it will make for 19 Caps with at least ten points this season. If ether Jason Arnott or Marco Sturm get three, they would join that club, too.
-- If Tyler Sloan gets a jersey, it will be his 100th NHL game.
-- If Ovechkin scores in overtime, he will take over the franchise record in overtime goals scored in a season. Mike Green currently holds the record with three overtime markers. If he gets the game-winner (in overtime or otherwise), he will finish with the second highest number of game winners scored in a season (Peter Bondra had 13 in 1997-1998). He is currently tied for second on that list with Mike Gartner (both with 11, Gartner having done it in 1984-1985), Ovechkin having now done it twice, the other time being in 2007-2008.
-- Seven different Caps have shorthanded goals this season. None of them, though, have more than one.
-- If Michal Neuvirth gets the call in goal tonight and shuts out the Panthers, it will make five shutouts for the season. That will tie him for second in franchise history for shutouts in a season (currently shared between Olaf Kolzig, who did it three times, and Don Beaupre), and it would break the tie he now has with Jim Carey for shutouts by a Capitals rookie.
-- If Semyon Varlamov sits out tonight’s game, he will end the year with the highest save percentage in Caps history (.924, besting Olaf Kolzig’s .920 in 1997-1998). If he plays and faces 30 shots, he can allow as many as four goals and still finish on top in save percentage for a season. Florida hasn’t scored four goals in a game since their last win… on St. Patrick’s Day.
-- In the “close, but no cigar” category, were Varlamov to get the call in goal tonight and win a 1-0 decision in a Gimmick, he would finish the season with a 2.14 GAA. Jim Carey holds the club record of 2.13…
…unless you count the goalie who isn’t here. Fourteen games (12 starts) isn’t a lot to go on, but Braden Holtby ended his season with a GAA of 1.79 and a save percentage of .934. Both would be team records for a season were he to qualify.
Hey, cuz…can we go now?
You in a hurry, Cheerless?
Yeah, I don’t want Peerless to scarf down all the Doritos before I get some.
Cheerless, you’re about as bright as a bowl of bean dip.
Hey, can we stop at the store and get some?
…yeesh.
Caps 4 – Panthers 1
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
A TWO-point night -- Game 81: Caps 5 - Panthers 2
In the second period, Sean Collins got the third goal of the evening when an Alex Ovechkin pass intended for Nicklas Backstrom clicked off a Panther skate on the way through and into open ice. Collins was trailing the play down the middle and was in just the right spot to collect the puck and lean into one, ramming the puck off the pipe and behind Clemmensen for his second NHL goal.
Matt Hendricks scored his ninth of the year when he was given time to write a novel at the post to the left of goalie Scott Clemmensen. Boyd Gordon found him from behind the Panther net, and with defenseman Clay Wilson more or less just watching, as opposed to defending, Hendricks chipped the puck past Clemmensen for goal number four for the evening.
Florida got one when David Booth converted a Sergei Samsonov feed for a power play goal with just over six minutes left, and Mike Santorelli bunted a pass from Samsonov just over the goal line with 91 seconds left, but Alex Ovechkin put an end to any thoughts of a miracle comeback when he took a feed from Nicklas Backstrom for an empty netter with 12 seconds left to seal the Caps’ 48th win of the year.
Other stuff…
-- Florida out-attempted the Caps, 33-11, in the first period. They had more shots (18), more missed shots (eight), and more shots blocked (seven) than the Caps had shots on goal (six).
-- The Caps’ third goal came on the sort of play that plagued the Caps last season. David Booth was at the offensive blue line for the Panthers because defenseman Jason Garrison tried to jump up into the play along the left wing boards. Booth, covering the left point, had the puck and tried to make a pass across the zone. He was rather lazy about it, sending the puck softly across to a spot already vacated by a backing-up Mike Weaver. The puck settled on Alex Ovechkin’s stick, and Ovechkin started the play the other way. It might have been just another harmless mistake, but Jack Skille was slow getting back to cover Sean Collins, and when Ovechkin’s pass attempt hit a Panther skate and ricocheted to Collins, he was wide open for the shot from the high slot.
-- When Matt Hendricks scored from the doorstep in the third period, it tied his career best of nine goals, set last year with Colorado.
-- With a three-point night, Ovechkin is 8-15-23, plus-11 in his last 16 games.
-- With a two-assist night, Nicklas Backstrom is 1-9-10, plus-5 in his last eight games.
-- Brooks Laich extended his points streak to five games, his longest of the season. He is 0-7-7 over that span.
-- Two power play goals tonight makes five in nine chances over the last three games. It is the third time this season that the Caps have power play goals in three consecutive games.
-- The power play goal for Knuble was his second in three games and his fourth goal overall in his last four games. He has nine goals in his last 12 games (three of them on the power play).
-- The win in regulation broke a streak of four consecutive games in which the Caps were taken to extra time.
-- After getting 18 shots in the first period, Florida had only 15 over the last 40 minutes.
-- Lost in the talk about Alex Ovechkin’s drop in goals scored this season is that with two assists tonight he has seven helpers in his last six games and is fifth in the league in assists.
-- Jason Chimera’s goal made it eight Caps with at least ten. Matt Hendricks got one to put him one away from joining the double digit club.
-- The Caps had a rather “meh” night in the circle. They were 4-for-15 in offensive zone faceoffs. Brooks Laich and Boyd Gordon made up for that at the other end, though. They were a combined 11-for-13 on defensive zone draws.
-- John Erskine…four hits, six blocked shots. He is another underreported story this season – a lot of solid play from a guy you might not have expected it from. He has had only one “minus” game in his last eleven games.
-- The record will show that Scott Clemmensen allowed four goals on 24 shots faced, but truth be told, the Panther defense was rather bad, and that isn’t just the defensemen. Hendricks got a goal when Clay Wilson left him standing there for what seemed to be a ten-count waiting for the puck at the post, and Jack Skille nonchalanted the backcheck to let Sean Collins cruise down the slot for his goal.
-- Semyon Varlamov kept the Caps in the game early, giving his teammates time to find their legs (which they only had in spurts tonight, anyway). He’s not going away in this goalie sweepstakes thing.
-- For all the hills and valleys of this season, a win on Saturday against this same Florida Panthers team would enable the Caps to finish the regular season with the second-highest standings points total in team history (109), the second fewest number of losses in regulation over a full season (22), and the fourth highest number of wins (49).
In the end, it was about what you expected. It was an unevenly played game pitting a team tuning up for the playoffs against one checking airline schedules to get out of town at the end of the weekend. No one appears to have been injured for the Caps, and that is probably the takeaway from this game. With 81 down and one to go, a repeat performance against this same team on Saturday will be just fine for the Caps.
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, April 6th
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
It seems like only yesterday that Corey Masisak wrote this of the Washington Capitals’ home opener against the New Jersey Devils:
Forty home games later, the Caps are about to close their regular season at Verizon Center a very different team than the one that buried the Devils under an avalanche of goals back in October. And tonight the Caps take that different team to the ice to host the Florida Panthers as a team that has dialed back the “Showtime” offense in pursuit of a style that balances the ability to score – especially when falling behind – with defense and goaltending in such a way as to frustrate opponents into thinking, “these are the Washington Capitals, right?”
On the other hand, the Florida Panthers are mired in another in a series of forgettable seasons. Missing the playoffs for the tenth straight season, the Panthers are playing out the string. And they are looking mighty ugly in doing it. Florida is 0-5-3 in their last eight games, a run plagued by an incapacity to score goals. They have only 11 goals in these last eight games, only eight in their last seven, and they were shutout twice. Overall, their numbers compare to the Caps like this:
Stephen Weiss – the Panthers’ leading scorer – is doubtful for this contest with a groin injury. In fact, he’s doubtful for the rest of the season. And if he does sit out the last three games for the Panthers, the club will finish the season without a 50-point scorer (Weiss has 49 points).
In fact, Weiss might finish the season as the Panthers’ only 40-point scorer. David Booth is stuck on 39 points at the moment. And although he needs just a goal or an assist to reach that 40-point mark, it isn’t a certainty. He is 1-1-2, minus-9 in his last ten games. If there is a whiff of hope here, it is in that Booth has had a decent season series against the Caps this year. In four games he is 2-2-4. In 24 career games against the Caps he is 6-7-13.
It says something about the Panthers that of their top-ten point-getters, five of them now play for other teams. Dennis Wideman (fourth) is in Washington. Michael Frolik (sixth) is in Chicago. Chris Higgins (eighth) is in Vancouver. Cory Stillman (ninth) is in Carolina. Bryan McCabe (tenth) is in New York with the Rangers. The locker room must have a sign on it, “CLEARANCE: EVERYTHING MUST GO.” So it is left to guys like Mike Santorelli try and cobble together something – anything – on offense. Santorelli has a shot at 40 points himself, with an 18-20-38 scoring line coming into Florida’s last three games. But he, too, is finding the going tough lately. In his last eight games, only an assist is credited to his score sheet. He is a minus-8 in those games. In four career games against the Caps he is 3-1-4.
Wih Wideman in Washington and McCabe in New York, Dmitry Kulikov bears the scoring burden for the defense. He is a respectable 6-20-26, minus-3 in that regard, but he is struggling at the moment (as if any Panther isn’t) with only an assist in his last seven games and a minus-8 to go along with it. He has three assists in four games against the Caps this season and a plus-3 mark, adding to a career record of 1-6-7, plus-4 in nine career games against Washington.
Tomas Vokoun might be joining Stephen Weiss on the sideline for the rest of the season. He is suffering a back injury, and that might leave it up to Scott Clemmensen to tend goal for the Panthers. He has been in the nets for the last three Panther games. He has not performed at a high enough level to lift the Panthers out of their late-season funk. In those last three games he is 0-2-1, 2.92, .898. That goals against average and save percentage is considerably worse than his season marks (2.51, .915). He has enough skill that the Caps should not take him lightly, but like the rest of the Panthers, it seems, the season cannot end fast enough. He is 2-5-1, 3.79, .864 lifetime against the Caps.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Florida: Sergei Samsonov
Sergei Samsonov might be the closest thing Florida has to a “hot” player. In his last ten games he is 2-7-9, minus-1. He has Florida’s last game-winning goal, the first goal scored in a 4-0 win over Toronto on St. Patrick’s Day. The well-traveled Samsonov (Florida is his sixth team in his 13 NHL seasons) is essentially playing for a contract. He is in the last year of a three-year deal that pays him $2.8 million this year. How he finishes might influence that next contract he signs.
Washington: Semyon Varlamov
With Michal Neuvith having gotten the call last night, it would seem Varlamov would get the call tonight. And now Varlamov finds himself in a tricky situation. Neuvirth getting the nod last night – a game against a desperate team in a big venue – all but screamed that the Caps have settled on Neuvirth to start the playoffs. Varlamov will, for the third straight year, be the guy who needs to be ready in the blink of an eye (or after a soft goal) to go in and be sharp. He played that role for the last two years, both times coming in relief of a shaky Jose Theodore to lift the Caps. But he was the favorite coming into the season to be the number one goalie for the playoffs, and after a season-long audition for the role (one marred by injuries limiting him to fewer appearances (26) than Neuvirth has wins (27), he seems destined to start the playoffs for the third straight year on the bench, but this time under a different set of circumstances. With that knowledge (or at least the suggestion having been made with last night’s choice of goalie), will he be sharp tonight? Something to look for.
Keys:
1. Pay attention. A game against a cellar-dweller the night after a game in Toronto. You can almost see the Caps’ eyes wandering around, thinking “can’t we just go to next week now?” If that’s how they play, Florida might get the odd goal or three to win. And remember, the Panthers do have two wins in four games of this series so far this season.
2. Don’t turn an appliance bulb into scoreboard lights. Florida’s power play is awful – 30th in the league and 3-for-28 (10.7 percent) over their last 12 games). If Florida gets a power play goal, it’s a bad sign.
3. First things first. No team has fewer wins when allowing the first goal than Florida (seven). Only one team has fewer losses in regulation that Washington when scoring the first goal. This is a simple game.
In the end, the only thing to be gained from this game and next is to get them over with and no further physical damage to the club inflicted. Yeah, finishing first is nice, whether it is finishing first in the Eastern Conference or finishing first in a spelling bee. But that’s not the object of the exercise. There is no trophy for finishing on top of the Eastern Conference standings heap, and trophies – well, a Cup – is what the Caps are readying themselves to fight for now.
It seems like only yesterday that Corey Masisak wrote this of the Washington Capitals’ home opener against the New Jersey Devils:
“If the Washington Capitals' goal was to show that they're better than the team that lost in the first round of the playoffs last spring after winning the Presidents' Trophy, consider Saturday night's 7-2 win against the New Jersey Devils as ‘Mission Accomplished.’"
Forty home games later, the Caps are about to close their regular season at Verizon Center a very different team than the one that buried the Devils under an avalanche of goals back in October. And tonight the Caps take that different team to the ice to host the Florida Panthers as a team that has dialed back the “Showtime” offense in pursuit of a style that balances the ability to score – especially when falling behind – with defense and goaltending in such a way as to frustrate opponents into thinking, “these are the Washington Capitals, right?”
On the other hand, the Florida Panthers are mired in another in a series of forgettable seasons. Missing the playoffs for the tenth straight season, the Panthers are playing out the string. And they are looking mighty ugly in doing it. Florida is 0-5-3 in their last eight games, a run plagued by an incapacity to score goals. They have only 11 goals in these last eight games, only eight in their last seven, and they were shutout twice. Overall, their numbers compare to the Caps like this:
Stephen Weiss – the Panthers’ leading scorer – is doubtful for this contest with a groin injury. In fact, he’s doubtful for the rest of the season. And if he does sit out the last three games for the Panthers, the club will finish the season without a 50-point scorer (Weiss has 49 points).
In fact, Weiss might finish the season as the Panthers’ only 40-point scorer. David Booth is stuck on 39 points at the moment. And although he needs just a goal or an assist to reach that 40-point mark, it isn’t a certainty. He is 1-1-2, minus-9 in his last ten games. If there is a whiff of hope here, it is in that Booth has had a decent season series against the Caps this year. In four games he is 2-2-4. In 24 career games against the Caps he is 6-7-13.
It says something about the Panthers that of their top-ten point-getters, five of them now play for other teams. Dennis Wideman (fourth) is in Washington. Michael Frolik (sixth) is in Chicago. Chris Higgins (eighth) is in Vancouver. Cory Stillman (ninth) is in Carolina. Bryan McCabe (tenth) is in New York with the Rangers. The locker room must have a sign on it, “CLEARANCE: EVERYTHING MUST GO.” So it is left to guys like Mike Santorelli try and cobble together something – anything – on offense. Santorelli has a shot at 40 points himself, with an 18-20-38 scoring line coming into Florida’s last three games. But he, too, is finding the going tough lately. In his last eight games, only an assist is credited to his score sheet. He is a minus-8 in those games. In four career games against the Caps he is 3-1-4.
Wih Wideman in Washington and McCabe in New York, Dmitry Kulikov bears the scoring burden for the defense. He is a respectable 6-20-26, minus-3 in that regard, but he is struggling at the moment (as if any Panther isn’t) with only an assist in his last seven games and a minus-8 to go along with it. He has three assists in four games against the Caps this season and a plus-3 mark, adding to a career record of 1-6-7, plus-4 in nine career games against Washington.
Tomas Vokoun might be joining Stephen Weiss on the sideline for the rest of the season. He is suffering a back injury, and that might leave it up to Scott Clemmensen to tend goal for the Panthers. He has been in the nets for the last three Panther games. He has not performed at a high enough level to lift the Panthers out of their late-season funk. In those last three games he is 0-2-1, 2.92, .898. That goals against average and save percentage is considerably worse than his season marks (2.51, .915). He has enough skill that the Caps should not take him lightly, but like the rest of the Panthers, it seems, the season cannot end fast enough. He is 2-5-1, 3.79, .864 lifetime against the Caps.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Florida: Sergei Samsonov
Sergei Samsonov might be the closest thing Florida has to a “hot” player. In his last ten games he is 2-7-9, minus-1. He has Florida’s last game-winning goal, the first goal scored in a 4-0 win over Toronto on St. Patrick’s Day. The well-traveled Samsonov (Florida is his sixth team in his 13 NHL seasons) is essentially playing for a contract. He is in the last year of a three-year deal that pays him $2.8 million this year. How he finishes might influence that next contract he signs.
Washington: Semyon Varlamov
With Michal Neuvith having gotten the call last night, it would seem Varlamov would get the call tonight. And now Varlamov finds himself in a tricky situation. Neuvirth getting the nod last night – a game against a desperate team in a big venue – all but screamed that the Caps have settled on Neuvirth to start the playoffs. Varlamov will, for the third straight year, be the guy who needs to be ready in the blink of an eye (or after a soft goal) to go in and be sharp. He played that role for the last two years, both times coming in relief of a shaky Jose Theodore to lift the Caps. But he was the favorite coming into the season to be the number one goalie for the playoffs, and after a season-long audition for the role (one marred by injuries limiting him to fewer appearances (26) than Neuvirth has wins (27), he seems destined to start the playoffs for the third straight year on the bench, but this time under a different set of circumstances. With that knowledge (or at least the suggestion having been made with last night’s choice of goalie), will he be sharp tonight? Something to look for.
Keys:
1. Pay attention. A game against a cellar-dweller the night after a game in Toronto. You can almost see the Caps’ eyes wandering around, thinking “can’t we just go to next week now?” If that’s how they play, Florida might get the odd goal or three to win. And remember, the Panthers do have two wins in four games of this series so far this season.
2. Don’t turn an appliance bulb into scoreboard lights. Florida’s power play is awful – 30th in the league and 3-for-28 (10.7 percent) over their last 12 games). If Florida gets a power play goal, it’s a bad sign.
3. First things first. No team has fewer wins when allowing the first goal than Florida (seven). Only one team has fewer losses in regulation that Washington when scoring the first goal. This is a simple game.
In the end, the only thing to be gained from this game and next is to get them over with and no further physical damage to the club inflicted. Yeah, finishing first is nice, whether it is finishing first in the Eastern Conference or finishing first in a spelling bee. But that’s not the object of the exercise. There is no trophy for finishing on top of the Eastern Conference standings heap, and trophies – well, a Cup – is what the Caps are readying themselves to fight for now.
Caps 4 - Panthers 2
A TWO-point night -- Game 80: Caps 3 - Maple Leafs 2 (OT/Gimmick)
And controlling their destiny is something they enjoyed last night, once the hockey portion of the evening was completed. After Alex Ovechkin and John Erskine exchanged goals for the Caps with markers by Nikolai Kulemin and Joffrey Lupul for the Leafs, the teams went to the alternating shot format, Caps shooting last. And there, it seemed as if neither team was going to get one by either Caps goalie Michal Neuvirth or Leafs netminder James Reimer. But Mike Knuble took the fourth round for the Caps, and with a snap shot past Reimer’s glove, he shot the Caps into the lead in the East and to their fourth straight Southeast Division title.
Other stuff…
-- With the Caps’ first goal last night, Alex Ovechkin has 31 on the season and 300 for his career. The last time Ovechkin had consecutive games without a point was February 6th/8th. Since then he is 11-16-27 in 22 games and has points in 18 of those games.
-- John Erskine, scoring machine. His goal last night added to his career high in goals for a season (four) and points (11). It was his first goal since November 26th (in a 6-0 win over Tampa Bay) and first point since February 6th (a 3-0 win over Pittsburgh).
-- Michal Neuvirth allowed two goals on 21 shots, one of which he probably wants back. The shot by Nikolai Kulemin on the power play was a nifty piece of work using Erskine as a screen, but Neuvirth looked as if he whiffed on trying to glove it down. The other one isn’t on him as much as it is on Jeff Schultz, who looked to have plenty of time to tie up Joffrey Lupul as he was heading to the net. But he was late getting there, and Lupul was free and clear to convert a feed from Phil Kessel.
-- James Reimer might turn out to be a flop down the road, but we don’t think it would be the way to bet. He was the real deal, and then some, last night with 39 saves on 41 shots. And if Knuble doesn’t pick the edge of the net for the Gimmick tally, they might still be going on.
-- Knuble has two trick shot goals as a Cap. Both were the game-winner.
-- The Caps had 78 shot attempts for the night. Ovechkin had 17 of them. No Leaf had more than six, and Toronto had only 48 overall.
-- Who was second in shot attempts for the Caps? Go ahead, think about it. We’ll wait…
-- Toronto was credited with 50 – five-oh – hits. Every Leaf had at least one except Mikhail Grabovski. We think Brian Burke was credited with one when he passed George McPhee in the hall.
-- Ovechkin’s power play goal made it two games in a row that the Caps scored at least one with the man advantage. Hope springs eternal that the power play is finding its way to daylight.
-- On the other hand, it was the third time in four games that the Caps allowed a power play goal (8-for-11 on the penalty kill). Something to work on. The good thing is that it was the third straight game the Caps allowed only two power play opportunities.
-- The Caps have not lost consecutive games since dropping three in a row to a trio of Pacific Division teams in mid-February (San Jose, Los Angeles, and Phoenix). Since then, the Caps are 18-4-1. They are 8-2-0 against playoff-eligible teams in that span.
-- …Marcus Johansson had eight shot attempts. He also had a takeaway, a blocked shot, and split 14 draws.
In the end, the Caps finished the night with only one team in the league – Vancouver – with more wins (52 to 47) and more points (113 to 105). Only Atlanta has more wins in extra time. One might conclude that the Caps have been both good and resilient. But give a nod to the Maple Leafs, too, for their resiliency and grit. They did not go without a fight. Coach Bruce Boudreau remarked last night that “they looked a little tired -- mentally tired. It's hard hanging on and hanging on and hanging on. I thought as the game wore on we kept getting it deep and wearing them down a little bit." Well, that’s probably true, but Toronto was giving all they had in one last push to keep a longshot playoff run going. And a lot of that was due to James Reimer, on whose back the Leafs have put this run over the last few weeks. But Toronto has only to look forward to next year, now. The Caps still have business to take care of, and with a home-and-home against Florida to end the regular season, they look to be in a position to get down to business.
Tuesday, April 05, 2011
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps at Maple Leafs, April 5th
The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Caps take to the road to night for their last regular season visit to Canada, a contest against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. And in the Leafs, the Caps find one more desperate team. In fact, the Leafs are perhaps the most desperate one they will have played lately, for Toronto is in a must-win situation.
“Fate rarely calls upon us at a moment of our choosing.”
Uh, yeah…ok.
“I will accept this burden with all that I am!”
Fine…but you don’t look like a Maple Leaf, not with the metal accoutrements.
“There is a thin line between being a hero and a memory.”
Well, look pal, I’m not going to forget that get-up. What are you, anyway?
"My name is Optimus Prime. We are autonomous robotic organisms from the planet Cybertron."
No kidding. And you are here to…
“I am a fan of Optimus Reim.”
The Caps and Maple Leafs are teams with similar ambitions approaching them frm opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. For the Caps, it is a matter of seeding, of trying to catch the Philadelphia Flyers for first in the East. For the Maple Leafs, it is looking up at a couple of teams separating them from the playoff-eight. Overall, the teams' numbers compare as follows:
For the Maple Leafs, this is it. They have to win. They have to have two points any way they can get them. There is no more margin for error. And that is going to put just that much more pressure on rookie goaltender James Reimer. “Optimus Reim” has become the face of this year’s Leafs team and might be the brightest light for their future, quite an achievement for a player who had one appearance this season before New Year’s Day. And that was hardly announcing his presence with authority – 14 minutes of mop-up duty, stopping the four shots he faced in a 6-3 loss to Atlanta on December 20th. But in 34 appearances this season he has a respectable 2.54 goals against average, a more than respectable .922 save percentage (seventh in the league and tops among rookie goaltenders playing in at least 25 games), and three shutouts (tied for third among rookie goalies), while posting a record of 20-8-4. He is coming into this game on something of a roll, too, at least in terms of wins and losses. In his last ten appearances he is 8-2-0, 2.54, .923, and a shutout. In an odd quirk of his progress up the development chain, Reimer played in six games for Capitals ECHL affiliate South Carolina in 2008-2009, posting a perfect 6-0-0 record (1.32, .961, two shutouts). Tonight will be Reimer’s first career appearance against the Capitals.
While Reimer was going 8-2-0 in his last ten appearances, Toronto has been getting balanced contributions from their top scorers. Phil Kessel is 3-8-11, even, in his last 11 games (two of his three goals being game-winners). Clarke MacArthur is 2-9-11, plus-1 in his last dozen contests, and Mikhail Grabovski is 2-3-5, plus-4 in his last five games.
Kessel in particular seems to have found his rhythm. Since enduring a five-game streak without a point in late January/early February, he is 11-16-27, minus-1 in his last 26 games. Kessel has not gone consecutive games without a point in that 26-game span. And in that time he has taken only eight minutes in penalties. That minus-1 in his last 26 games might not look especially impressive, but compared to his going minus-20 in his first 53 games it looks almost “Selkian.” The player the Caps passed on in the 2006 draft (well, they did take Nicklas Backstrom) has not made the Caps pay for the insult too often in his career. In 16 career games against the Caps he is 3-6-9, even.
MacArthur is in his first season with the Leafs, and he has made the trip worthwhile. He leads the team with 40 assists, and his 21 goals is a career best in five seasons. MacArthur is another player who appears to have found a comfortable rhythm. Since a six-game stretch in which he has only one assist in early February, he is 4-12-16, plus-2 in his last 20 games. MacArthur is 6-1-7, plus-2 in 15 career games against Washington.
On defense, the departure of Tomas Kaberle to Boston means that Dion Phaneuf is the leading scorer among blueliners for the Leafs. In his sixth season in the NHL and wearing the “C” for the Leafs, he is also going to have a job mentoring the likes of Luke Schenn (in his third season) and Carl Gunnarsson (in his sophomore season) for the Toronto defense. Phaneuf is not the offensive force he was in his first few years, when he averaged 53 points in his first three years in Calgary. But attention must be paid to his shot from the outside, and he remains one of the big hitters in the game, 12th among all defensemen in hits this season. He has been off and on lately, following up a three-game points drought with a 1-3-4 stretch over three games, then a scoreless last two games. It is a little surprising that he has only four career games against the Caps, but he does have three assists in those games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: Mikhail Grabovski
Mikhail Grabovski might need to be heard from in this game and pick up his scoring pace if the Leafs are to stay alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race. And that certainly isn’t out of the question, his bringing a 2-8-10, plus-5 career mark over 10 games against the Caps into this game. He has been somewhat streaky lately, though. Before his 2-3-5 scoring line over his last five games, Grabovski went four games without a point. And before that, he was 3-6-9 over eight games. Which one shows up tonight might be the difference between living to play another day and looking up tee times for mid-April.
Washington: John Carlson
It is tempting to say, “Semyon Varlamov,” since he might be getting perhaps a last audition to be the Caps playoff goaltender this season. However, John Carlson has become a key cog in the Caps’ fortunes with the absences of several defensemen over the past few weeks. With Mike Green and Dennis Wideman out, Carlson is the minutes leader with almost 23 minutes of ice time a game. And he is the, for lack of a better term, “point man” on the power play. If he can chip in a point or two on the man advantage, it not only helps the Caps chances tonight, but gives them alternatives going forward in anticipation of the day Green or Wideman return to the lineup.
Keys:
1. It’s Toronto, not “TORONTO!!!” Toronto is one of those places that can either bring out the best in a player or have him quaking in his boots in the setting. But the Leafs are only 5-3-3 in their last 11 home games. Deciphering Bettman math, that’s losing more often than they win, and that includes having won their last two home games. It’s still just a 200 by 85 foot ice sheet (or 61 by 26 meters for you metrically-inclined readers).
2. Score first. This is rather simple. Toronto might not have the best record in the NHL, but only one team in the league (Vancouver) has lost fewer games in regulation when scoring first (21-4-6). The same can be said for the Caps (24-4-6). If you want one indicator of who the winner is going to be, this is likely the one.
3. See Number Two.
In the end, both teams have something to play for, but Toronto has everything to lose in this game. Lose, and they’re done. Hard to focus the mind any sharper than that. And that should make the first ten or so minutes of this game especially important. Toronto should be looking to get off fast to establish momentum and get the crowd into the “Go-Leafs-Go” chant early. And that makes it important for the Caps to get back to that old, boring, clog the middle, defense-first style that served them so well since that ugly 0-6-2 streak in December. They looked too much like last year’s team over the last couple of games, squeaking by with 4-3 and 5-4 overtime wins. A nice, quiet, low scoring game would be in order here…
"Now all we need is a little energon, and a lot of luck."
Well, tonight the luck runs out.
Caps 3 – Maple Leafs 1
The Caps take to the road to night for their last regular season visit to Canada, a contest against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. And in the Leafs, the Caps find one more desperate team. In fact, the Leafs are perhaps the most desperate one they will have played lately, for Toronto is in a must-win situation.
“Fate rarely calls upon us at a moment of our choosing.”
Uh, yeah…ok.
“I will accept this burden with all that I am!”
Fine…but you don’t look like a Maple Leaf, not with the metal accoutrements.
“There is a thin line between being a hero and a memory.”
Well, look pal, I’m not going to forget that get-up. What are you, anyway?
"My name is Optimus Prime. We are autonomous robotic organisms from the planet Cybertron."
No kidding. And you are here to…
“I am a fan of Optimus Reim.”
The Caps and Maple Leafs are teams with similar ambitions approaching them frm opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. For the Caps, it is a matter of seeding, of trying to catch the Philadelphia Flyers for first in the East. For the Maple Leafs, it is looking up at a couple of teams separating them from the playoff-eight. Overall, the teams' numbers compare as follows:
For the Maple Leafs, this is it. They have to win. They have to have two points any way they can get them. There is no more margin for error. And that is going to put just that much more pressure on rookie goaltender James Reimer. “Optimus Reim” has become the face of this year’s Leafs team and might be the brightest light for their future, quite an achievement for a player who had one appearance this season before New Year’s Day. And that was hardly announcing his presence with authority – 14 minutes of mop-up duty, stopping the four shots he faced in a 6-3 loss to Atlanta on December 20th. But in 34 appearances this season he has a respectable 2.54 goals against average, a more than respectable .922 save percentage (seventh in the league and tops among rookie goaltenders playing in at least 25 games), and three shutouts (tied for third among rookie goalies), while posting a record of 20-8-4. He is coming into this game on something of a roll, too, at least in terms of wins and losses. In his last ten appearances he is 8-2-0, 2.54, .923, and a shutout. In an odd quirk of his progress up the development chain, Reimer played in six games for Capitals ECHL affiliate South Carolina in 2008-2009, posting a perfect 6-0-0 record (1.32, .961, two shutouts). Tonight will be Reimer’s first career appearance against the Capitals.
While Reimer was going 8-2-0 in his last ten appearances, Toronto has been getting balanced contributions from their top scorers. Phil Kessel is 3-8-11, even, in his last 11 games (two of his three goals being game-winners). Clarke MacArthur is 2-9-11, plus-1 in his last dozen contests, and Mikhail Grabovski is 2-3-5, plus-4 in his last five games.
Kessel in particular seems to have found his rhythm. Since enduring a five-game streak without a point in late January/early February, he is 11-16-27, minus-1 in his last 26 games. Kessel has not gone consecutive games without a point in that 26-game span. And in that time he has taken only eight minutes in penalties. That minus-1 in his last 26 games might not look especially impressive, but compared to his going minus-20 in his first 53 games it looks almost “Selkian.” The player the Caps passed on in the 2006 draft (well, they did take Nicklas Backstrom) has not made the Caps pay for the insult too often in his career. In 16 career games against the Caps he is 3-6-9, even.
MacArthur is in his first season with the Leafs, and he has made the trip worthwhile. He leads the team with 40 assists, and his 21 goals is a career best in five seasons. MacArthur is another player who appears to have found a comfortable rhythm. Since a six-game stretch in which he has only one assist in early February, he is 4-12-16, plus-2 in his last 20 games. MacArthur is 6-1-7, plus-2 in 15 career games against Washington.
On defense, the departure of Tomas Kaberle to Boston means that Dion Phaneuf is the leading scorer among blueliners for the Leafs. In his sixth season in the NHL and wearing the “C” for the Leafs, he is also going to have a job mentoring the likes of Luke Schenn (in his third season) and Carl Gunnarsson (in his sophomore season) for the Toronto defense. Phaneuf is not the offensive force he was in his first few years, when he averaged 53 points in his first three years in Calgary. But attention must be paid to his shot from the outside, and he remains one of the big hitters in the game, 12th among all defensemen in hits this season. He has been off and on lately, following up a three-game points drought with a 1-3-4 stretch over three games, then a scoreless last two games. It is a little surprising that he has only four career games against the Caps, but he does have three assists in those games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: Mikhail Grabovski
Mikhail Grabovski might need to be heard from in this game and pick up his scoring pace if the Leafs are to stay alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race. And that certainly isn’t out of the question, his bringing a 2-8-10, plus-5 career mark over 10 games against the Caps into this game. He has been somewhat streaky lately, though. Before his 2-3-5 scoring line over his last five games, Grabovski went four games without a point. And before that, he was 3-6-9 over eight games. Which one shows up tonight might be the difference between living to play another day and looking up tee times for mid-April.
Washington: John Carlson
It is tempting to say, “Semyon Varlamov,” since he might be getting perhaps a last audition to be the Caps playoff goaltender this season. However, John Carlson has become a key cog in the Caps’ fortunes with the absences of several defensemen over the past few weeks. With Mike Green and Dennis Wideman out, Carlson is the minutes leader with almost 23 minutes of ice time a game. And he is the, for lack of a better term, “point man” on the power play. If he can chip in a point or two on the man advantage, it not only helps the Caps chances tonight, but gives them alternatives going forward in anticipation of the day Green or Wideman return to the lineup.
Keys:
1. It’s Toronto, not “TORONTO!!!” Toronto is one of those places that can either bring out the best in a player or have him quaking in his boots in the setting. But the Leafs are only 5-3-3 in their last 11 home games. Deciphering Bettman math, that’s losing more often than they win, and that includes having won their last two home games. It’s still just a 200 by 85 foot ice sheet (or 61 by 26 meters for you metrically-inclined readers).
2. Score first. This is rather simple. Toronto might not have the best record in the NHL, but only one team in the league (Vancouver) has lost fewer games in regulation when scoring first (21-4-6). The same can be said for the Caps (24-4-6). If you want one indicator of who the winner is going to be, this is likely the one.
3. See Number Two.
In the end, both teams have something to play for, but Toronto has everything to lose in this game. Lose, and they’re done. Hard to focus the mind any sharper than that. And that should make the first ten or so minutes of this game especially important. Toronto should be looking to get off fast to establish momentum and get the crowd into the “Go-Leafs-Go” chant early. And that makes it important for the Caps to get back to that old, boring, clog the middle, defense-first style that served them so well since that ugly 0-6-2 streak in December. They looked too much like last year’s team over the last couple of games, squeaking by with 4-3 and 5-4 overtime wins. A nice, quiet, low scoring game would be in order here…
"Now all we need is a little energon, and a lot of luck."
Well, tonight the luck runs out.
Caps 3 – Maple Leafs 1
Sunday, April 03, 2011
Two Rookies Who Won't Win the Calder Trophy
A recent Twitter exchange between CSN-Washington’s Alan May and NHL.com’s Corey Masisak about where defensemen John Carlson and P.K. Subban might finish in the Calder Trophy race got us to thinking about that question. The Calder Trophy winner is selected by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association as “the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League.” In the 77 times the Trophy has been awarded it has been won by a forward 51 times. This year, three forwards appear to be the front-runners for the award – Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks, Jeff Skinner of the Carolina Hurricanes, and Michael Grabner of the New York Islanders. There are those who might make a case for goaltenders Corey Crawford of the Chicago Blackhawks, who has played in more than 50 games after the Marty Turco experiment was tried and found wanting. And perhaps others might include Philadelphia Flyer goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who has played in 50 games for the Eastern Conference’s leading team.
There seems to be no room at the table for defensemen this season. Not that members of this year’s rookie class of defensemen are unworthy of consideration, but the position does not lend itself well to the clean comparison of numbers that one can apply to forwards or goaltenders. A pity, because there are two defensemen who are in the midst of establishing themselves as stars for years to come – the ones that were the object of the exchange referenced above. And it begs the question, if there was a “Ray Bourque Trophy”* to honor the league’s top rookie defenseman, would the winner be John Carlson or P.K. Subban?
Oh, before you toss the names of Cam Fowler or Kevin Shattenkirk into the mix, we counter by noting that Fowler, despite being second among all rookie defensemen in scoring, plays almost no shorthanded time (22 seconds a game) and has by far the worst plus-minus among his fellow defensemen with the Anaheim Ducks. As for Shattenkirk, he leads all rookie defensemen in total points, but it is difficult to make him a leading candidate, having been traded this season from Colorado to St. Louis and who himself has logged next to no shorthanded ice time this season (25 seconds a game).
That leaves Carlson and Subban. Each has put up impressive numbers of their own:
Points…identical. Goals against while on ice…ditto. Ice time…nearly so. Both get substantial special teams time. But the numbers also indicate that they are very different players.
Subban has more hits, more penalty minutes, more power play points. In Subban’s game the two sides of the coin are that on the one hand he is a more dynamic player than John Carlson, especially as a power play contributor (he leads all rookie defensemen in power play goals); but the other side of that coin is his being more mercurial. He can be prone to the big mistake that manifests itself in taking ill-timed penalties. Carlson’s numbers suggest a more consistent game on a night-to-night basis, stronger at even strength (second among all rookie defensemen in plus-minus) and a bit better in his turnover ratio; but the other side of that coin is that he does not have the game-changing dimension that Subban has at this point of their respective careers.
If you are looking for separation between these two, well, good luck. And it might not be found in their own numbers. On one hand, Subban has to play in a market where the spotlight is always on hockey and the Canadiens in particular. And much was expected of Subban in his rookie year, so that spotlight burns quite brightly on him. A lot of rookies might sag under the strain, but Subban has not. On the other hand, Montreal has the benefit of a rather experienced defensive corps around Subban. Growing up around graybeards such as Hall Gill and Roman Hamrlik (2,298 regular season games between them); plus later season acquisitions Paul Mara and Brent Sopel (another 1,386 regular season games) provides some relief from the burden Subban might otherwise have to bear.
Carlson does not play in the most rabid of hockey markets (with a nod to all those consecutive Verizon Center sellouts, it’s not Toronto or Montreal, or even Chicago or Detroit), but he has assumed a critical role by virtue of its diversity for a serious Stanley Cup contender. Carlson has had to grow up surrounded by injuries to Mike Green (30 games missed this season) and Tom Poti (58 games missed), and now will perhaps bear a bigger share of the burden with Dennis Wideman out indefinitely. And with the added responsibility and the ice time that comes with it (his average ice time has jumped by a minute over his season average in the 18 games since Mike Green last went out of the lineup), there have been the occasional rookie lapses.
If anything, both have picked up their games, and this time along a similar path. Carlson endured a month-long drought in January and February in which he was 0-3-3, even over a 13 game stretch. But since then he is 2-11-13, plus-7 over his last 17 games and has not skated fewer than 20 minutes in any of those games. Subban had a five-game point-less streak in February in which he also went minus-3, and he was riding a streak of 12 games in which he accumulated 31 minutes in penalties. But since then he is 6-6-12, even, in 19 games, during which he skated fewer than 20 minutes only once. These are not rookies being nursed into a role for their respective clubs; they are important cogs in their respective teams on a night-to-night basis.
This is a remarkably talented rookie class. There are a half-dozen or more legitimate contenders to be Calder Trophy finalists, and there are more than that who could become impact players in the years to come. Numbers aside, it would be hard to argue with an all-forward finalist group this season. But the closer race might be in deciding which rookie defenseman would win an award as best rookie for that position. Because in looking at the seasons that John Carlson and P.K. Subban have had, there doesn’t seem to be as much as a sliver of daylight between them. Who would we pick? Hey, there are three games left for each of them. Let's not get hasty.
* Our hypothetical award is named for Ray Bourque, the 1980 winner of the Calder Trophy, who was 17-48-65, the fifth highest point total recorded by a rookie defenseman (second highest by a Calder winner), and was a plus-52 that season, by far the highest ever recorded by a rookie defenseman.
There seems to be no room at the table for defensemen this season. Not that members of this year’s rookie class of defensemen are unworthy of consideration, but the position does not lend itself well to the clean comparison of numbers that one can apply to forwards or goaltenders. A pity, because there are two defensemen who are in the midst of establishing themselves as stars for years to come – the ones that were the object of the exchange referenced above. And it begs the question, if there was a “Ray Bourque Trophy”* to honor the league’s top rookie defenseman, would the winner be John Carlson or P.K. Subban?
Oh, before you toss the names of Cam Fowler or Kevin Shattenkirk into the mix, we counter by noting that Fowler, despite being second among all rookie defensemen in scoring, plays almost no shorthanded time (22 seconds a game) and has by far the worst plus-minus among his fellow defensemen with the Anaheim Ducks. As for Shattenkirk, he leads all rookie defensemen in total points, but it is difficult to make him a leading candidate, having been traded this season from Colorado to St. Louis and who himself has logged next to no shorthanded ice time this season (25 seconds a game).
That leaves Carlson and Subban. Each has put up impressive numbers of their own:
Points…identical. Goals against while on ice…ditto. Ice time…nearly so. Both get substantial special teams time. But the numbers also indicate that they are very different players.
Subban has more hits, more penalty minutes, more power play points. In Subban’s game the two sides of the coin are that on the one hand he is a more dynamic player than John Carlson, especially as a power play contributor (he leads all rookie defensemen in power play goals); but the other side of that coin is his being more mercurial. He can be prone to the big mistake that manifests itself in taking ill-timed penalties. Carlson’s numbers suggest a more consistent game on a night-to-night basis, stronger at even strength (second among all rookie defensemen in plus-minus) and a bit better in his turnover ratio; but the other side of that coin is that he does not have the game-changing dimension that Subban has at this point of their respective careers.
If you are looking for separation between these two, well, good luck. And it might not be found in their own numbers. On one hand, Subban has to play in a market where the spotlight is always on hockey and the Canadiens in particular. And much was expected of Subban in his rookie year, so that spotlight burns quite brightly on him. A lot of rookies might sag under the strain, but Subban has not. On the other hand, Montreal has the benefit of a rather experienced defensive corps around Subban. Growing up around graybeards such as Hall Gill and Roman Hamrlik (2,298 regular season games between them); plus later season acquisitions Paul Mara and Brent Sopel (another 1,386 regular season games) provides some relief from the burden Subban might otherwise have to bear.
Carlson does not play in the most rabid of hockey markets (with a nod to all those consecutive Verizon Center sellouts, it’s not Toronto or Montreal, or even Chicago or Detroit), but he has assumed a critical role by virtue of its diversity for a serious Stanley Cup contender. Carlson has had to grow up surrounded by injuries to Mike Green (30 games missed this season) and Tom Poti (58 games missed), and now will perhaps bear a bigger share of the burden with Dennis Wideman out indefinitely. And with the added responsibility and the ice time that comes with it (his average ice time has jumped by a minute over his season average in the 18 games since Mike Green last went out of the lineup), there have been the occasional rookie lapses.
If anything, both have picked up their games, and this time along a similar path. Carlson endured a month-long drought in January and February in which he was 0-3-3, even over a 13 game stretch. But since then he is 2-11-13, plus-7 over his last 17 games and has not skated fewer than 20 minutes in any of those games. Subban had a five-game point-less streak in February in which he also went minus-3, and he was riding a streak of 12 games in which he accumulated 31 minutes in penalties. But since then he is 6-6-12, even, in 19 games, during which he skated fewer than 20 minutes only once. These are not rookies being nursed into a role for their respective clubs; they are important cogs in their respective teams on a night-to-night basis.
This is a remarkably talented rookie class. There are a half-dozen or more legitimate contenders to be Calder Trophy finalists, and there are more than that who could become impact players in the years to come. Numbers aside, it would be hard to argue with an all-forward finalist group this season. But the closer race might be in deciding which rookie defenseman would win an award as best rookie for that position. Because in looking at the seasons that John Carlson and P.K. Subban have had, there doesn’t seem to be as much as a sliver of daylight between them. Who would we pick? Hey, there are three games left for each of them. Let's not get hasty.
* Our hypothetical award is named for Ray Bourque, the 1980 winner of the Calder Trophy, who was 17-48-65, the fifth highest point total recorded by a rookie defenseman (second highest by a Calder winner), and was a plus-52 that season, by far the highest ever recorded by a rookie defenseman.
A TWO-point night -- Game 79: Caps 5 - Sabres 4 (OT)
It was not a pretty 60-plus minutes that vaulted the Washington Capitals into the top spot in the Eastern Conference, but it was a win nevertheless that put them there, a 5-4 overtime win over the Buffalo Sabres last night.
The ticket might have had “Fan Appreciation Night” stamped on it, but it seemed more like”Hallowe’en” with all the gremlins out in force on the Verizon Center ice. Pucks hitting sticks and going in, pucks hitting skates and going in, another Caps defensemen injured (making three in three games), and a hideous dance at center ice that might have been as much exorcism of demons as it was celebration of a game-winning goal.
The Caps looked as if they would end the competitive portion of the evening early when they turned Sabres goalie Jhonas Enroth (starting in place of injured Ryan Miller) into a rebound machine. Mike Knuble got the Caps off on the right foot (unfortunately, not a rabbit’s foot) in the first minute when he swatted in a rebound of a John Carlson drive. Alexander Semin doubled the lead four minutes later when Enroth could not squeeze a Nicklas Backstrom shot, and Semin tapped it in from inches outside the goal line.
The Caps had a 2-0 lead on the scoreboard, and 8-1 lead in shots, and Enroth looked as if he was moments away from taking a seat on the bench. And then…
Lindy called timeout.
Buffalo coach Lindy Ruff didn’t panic with his team down a pair of goals, he merely called a time out, brought his team in, gave them a stern lecture about getting their tax returns in before the deadline, and sent them back out. Whatever he did say, it was the tonic. The Sabres outshot the Caps 10-6 over the rest of the period and tied the game when Michal Neuvirth was the victim of a bit of bad luck and a bit of bad play on his part. Jason Pominville threw the puck as the net from high along the left wing boards as he was going to his knees. Thomas Vanek got enough of the puck with his stick to deflect it past Neuvirth to halve the lead 6:30 into the period.
Then Drew Stafford flipped the puck at the net from almost the same spot from which Pominville shot it three minutes later. The shot came out of a maze of four players crossing among one another just in front of Pominville, and it seemed to freeze Neuvirth. He was too slow to react to the puck darting past his left pad, and the game was back to even.
After a silent second period, Buffalo took the lead when Paul Gaustad broke between a slow-reacting Capitals defense, took a Nathan Gerbe feed, and while all alone on Neuvirth, deked him to the ice and slipped a forehand under his sprawled form.
It was the Caps’ turn to tie things up when Mike Knuble got his second of the night on a power play, deflecting a Brooks Laich drive wih less than five minutes left. But that lasted barely two minutes, as Drew Stafford got his own second goal of the night on a power play for the Sabres, It, too, was on a deflection, but in this instance it was a deflection off the skate of Caps defenseman John Carlson, who was trying to defend Marc-Andre Gragani driving the net.
That might have been it, except for the Caps getting one more power play. With Gaustad in the box for high-sticking, Jason Arnott was johnny-on-the-spot to pick up a rebound to Enroth’s right. He pulled it clear of the pile and backhanded the puck past Enroth, who was tangled with his own defenseman in the crease.
It seemed inevitable, given the twists and turns of the game, that the contest would go to overtime, and it was there that Alex Ovechkin took advantage of one more practical joke played by the gremlins in attendance. After collecting a puck that Brooks Laich sent around the boards, Ovechkin stepped out from the left wing corner, walked around defenseman Chris Butler, showed Brad Boyes the puck, then pulled it back, and then from the middle of all four Sabres’ defenders, wristed a puck that was destined to go wide. Except it hit the skate Andrej Sekera and snuck just inside the far post to send Ovechkin into a dance at center ice and the fans home…appreciative.
Other stuff…
-- It was Bill McCreary’s last game as a referee in the NHL, and from the looks of things the officiating theme was to be “no penalties.” There were none called in the first 47:59 of the game (the Caps have never played in a game in which no penalties were called). But the refs had to call one when the Caps had too many men on the ice – a penalty they barely avoided on the previous shift when Eric Fehr was about to go off, then didn’t to rush back on defense. Four penalties were called in the last 8:01 of the game – two on each team – and three power play goals resulted, two for the Caps.
-- Jason Arnott’s goal was his 400th, Ovechkin’s his 299th, and for Mike Knuble his two goals were numbers seven and eight in his last ten games.
-- For Ovechkin, the three-point night made him 10-16-26 over his last 21 games. He has points in 17 of those 21 games.
-- Two power play goals broke a 1-for-17 skid on the man advantage over the previous seven games.
-- The four goals allowed was only the second time the Caps allowed more than three in their last 17 games. The Caps have won both instances, both by 5-4 scores, and both in extra time (one in a Gimmick against the Flyers and last night in overtime against Buffalo).
-- If the goaltending situation was murky before last night, it became a swamp with the results of this game. Looking at the four Buffalo goals, Vanek’s deflection for the first one is not an uncommon circumstance (although perhaps John Carlson might have done a better job of tying him up). The Pominville goal looked ugly and perhaps should have been stopped. But looking at it a few times on replay one could see where the puck might have gotten lost in that maze of bodies crossing in front of Pominville as he was shooting. Gaustad’s goal was as much a breakdown in defense (a slow-to-react backcheck as Gaustad was breaking down the middle) as anything Neuvirth did. And Stafford’s goal was off a skate as Carlson was trying to defend. Other than that, Neuvirth did have a number of excellent stops that resulted in an overall effort that looked better upon the second seeing of it than it did when seeing it in real time. Still, this thing might not be settled.
-- After the Caps scored two goals from a combined distance of about six feet, they seemed to give up on crashing the net. Perhaps it was a case of settling into a defensive posture of less risk-taking and more clogging the neutral zone, but with Jhonas Enroth looking like a deer in a goalie mask, giving up rebounds on the most harmless of shots, the Caps might have missed an opportunity to bury the Sabres early.
-- Matt Bradley is probably an unsung hero of this game. When the Caps were fighting off sluggishness after the Sabres tied the game, he was looking to inject some life back into the team by hitting anything in a white sweater. He finished with seven hits in less than 11 minutes of ice time, plus two takeaways and a blocked shot.
-- How odd was this game? Nathan Gerbe, who is about three feet tall, had five hits…more than any Cap not named Bradley. He was a real nuisance out there and used his speed to take advantage of Scott Hannan chasing a loose puck that drew a penalty and led to Buffalo’s last goal.
-- What is it, do folks graduate from Buffalo high schools and immediately come to Washington to go to school or find work? Or did the whole city schedule a field trip to see the cherry blossoms and look up ticket prices on Stub Hub? Last night was the loudest sustained cheering for a visiting team we’ve heard at Verizon all season.
-- With three assists last night, that’s seven helpers in the last six games for Nicklas Backstrom. It was the most assists he had in a game since Veterans’ Day, when he had four in a 6-3 win over Tampa Bay.
-- Tyler Sloan was injured, making it three defensemen hurt in three games (Dennis Wideman against Carolina, John Erskine against Columbus). We made the point early and often that the Caps’ defenseman depth would be tested and that with it likely that they would have to dress eight-or-more defensemen this season they might not have that depth. Well, the Caps have now dressed 11 defensemen with the appearance of Sean Collins last night. In addition to the seven roster defensemen, two of the 11 came via trade (Hannan, Wideman), two others from Hershey (Brian Fahey, and Collins). Watching Sloan and Collins last night, they certainly worked hard, but it wasn’t a pairing we’d like to see often.
In the end, it was entertaining, but it was not a game we suspect the coaching staff wants to see often. We think they rather liked the 3-2 sort of game more than the pinball wizard stuff going on last night. But pinball it was, what with pucks going off skates left and right. And after 60-plus minutes of that,the Caps still found themselves on top of the Eastern Conference with the Flyers chasing them for a change. All in all, a good night all around. Oh, except for young Mr. Enroth…
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