A TWO-point night -- Game 3: Capitals 6 - Panthers 1

After a brief stretch of the legs up to Ottawa on Saturday, the Washington Capitals returned home to host the defending Southeast Division champion Florida Panthers on Monday.  The Panthers entered the contest winners of their only game to date, a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay in the Panthers’ home opener on Saturday.  The Caps were looking to turn things around after suffering a 3-2 Gimmick loss at the hands of the Senators on Saturday.

Although the Panthers won the division last season they could post no better than a 2-4-0 record against the Caps last season, dropping all three games in Washington.  In those three games three different goalies took the losses – Jacob Markstrom in a 3-0 loss in October, Scott Clemmensen in a 4-0 loss in February, and former Cap Jose Theodore in a 4-2 loss at Verizon Center in the regular season’s penultimate game in April.

On Monday night the Caps would face an old nemesis.  The Panthers pulled the trigger on a deal that sent goalie Jose Theodore and the rights to prospect Nick Bjugstad to the Vancouver Canucks for goaltender Roberto Luongo.  The former Panther brought an 18-10-3 record against the Caps into the game with a 2.30 goals against average, a .928 save percentage, and two shutouts.

Luongo might have been the story angle as this contest opened, but it was his opposite number – Michal Neuvirth, getting his third straight start – who captured the attention early.  Neuvirth turned away a point blank drive from former teammate Tomas Fleischmann in the game’s first minute, then foiled Stephen Weiss on a breakaway shortly thereafter.  It got worse for the Caps when Jay Beagle was sent off for a double-minor high sticking call at 6:33 when he clipped Kris Versteeg in the cheek with the blade of his stick as they were fighting for the puck along the boards.

Neuvirth turned away seven shots in that four-minute sequence to preserve the scoreless tie, and by the time Beagle jumped out of the penalty box after his four-minute sentence the Panthers had all 11 shots in the period.  The lack of success with the early opportunities seemed to take some of the steam out of the Panthers’ attack, but the Caps could not translate it into any meaningful pressure of their own.  The teams skated to the first intermission scoreless, with the Panthers holding a 14-3 edge in shots.

When the puck dropped to start the second period, things took a turn.  Just 32 seconds in Alex Ovechkin scored his third goal of the young season, firing a wrist shot from the edge of the left wing faceoff circle over Luongo’s glove.  Marcel Goc took a cross-checking penalty on Jason Chimera a few minutes later, and the Caps jumped on the opportunity.  Nicklas Backstrom held the puck along the right wing boards, and when he edged down the wall, he sent the puck back up to Mike Green at the right point.  Green faked a slap shot and sent the puck cross ice to Ovechkin at the top of the left wing circle.  Ovechkin one-timed the puck over Luongo’s right pad before the goalie could stretch his leg back across the crease, giving the Caps a two-goal lead at the 5:05 mark of the period. 

Ovechkin’s next shift was among the stranger of those he has skated for the Caps.  With the Panthers trying to work the puck up and down the right wing wall trying to create open space the puck came to Tomas Kopecky in the right wing corner.  Kopecky was marked by Troy Brouwer as he tried to send a pass to Peter Mueller.  The pass and Alex Ovechkin arrived at the same time, and Mueller was leveled by a shoulder check from Ovechkin.  The puck sprang free, and Nicklas Backstrom sent it up to Ovechkin, who was headed out of the zone. 

Ovechkin sped up ice, defenseman Ed Jovanovski struggling to keep up.  Ovechkin got a step on Jovanovski, and with Brian Campbell trying to close from the other side of the ice, Ovechkin snapped a shot at Luongo.  The puck snuck between Luongo’s arm and ribs, trickling behind him to the goal line.  Campbell charged in and tried to sweep the puck away from harm, and appeared to get there in time to prevent the puck from crossing the goal line.  Ovechkin raised his arms to celebrate the goal, but play continued.  It was another full minute before a whistle stopped play, at which point Adam Oates was gesticulating in animated fashion to the screen above the rink and calling on referee Kevin Pollock to look at the replay.

The officials skated over to the other side of the ice to get the word from the war room in Toronto.  It took a couple of minutes, but when Pollock skated out to give the announcement that the puck had crossed the goal line, hats rained down on the ice.  It was the first hat trick from Ovechkin since Jaunary 22, 1011; his first hat trick not involving an empty net goal since February 7, 2010; and the first natural hat trick of his career.

The game clock was reset to the moment of Ovechkin’s goal, but it did not reset the Panthers or Luongo to the first period.  When Mike Ribeiro scored his first goal as a Capital at 9:59 of the period on a nice bit of stick work in front of Luongo, it was the end of the goalie’s night.  Scott Clemmensen took over in goal, but he could only slow, not stop the bleeding.  With Mike Weaver off for interference, Brooks Laich potted a power play goal at 18:24 to give the Caps a 5-0 lead after 40 minutes.

With the competitive portion of the evening over, the clubs would exchange goals in the third period.  Florida ruined Michal Neuvirth’s shutout bid at 9:11 when Brian Campbell found the back of the net through a screen.  The Caps returned the favor minutes later when John Carlson recorded his second of the year on a drive from the right point.  Alex Ovechkin recorded an assist on the goal to give him his first four-point night since February 4, 2011, when he had a goal and three assists in a 5-2 win in Tampa against the Lightning.  When the final horn sounded, the Caps served notice on the Panthers that their hold on the Southeast Division crown was in jeopardy, new goalie or not.

Capitals 6 – Panthers 1

Pep Talk, Bettman Style

With apologies to Knute Rockne and Bruce Bennett of Getty Images, who took this inspirational photograph.

A ONE-point night -- Game 2: Senators 3 - Capitals 2 (OT/SO)

Quick on the heels of last night’s Opening Night win against the New Jersey Devils, the Caps took to the road to face the Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Place.  It was the home opener for the Senators, but it was the Capitals who came out and started fast.  It was early pressure that gave Washington the early lead.  With the Caps pinning the Senators in their own end, Erik Karlsson tried to pass the puck against the grain from behind his own net, but did not see Brooks Laich stepping in front of Milan Michalek in the left wing faceoff circle.  Laich found Joel Ward in the high slot, and Ward wasted no time snapping the puck past goalie Craig Anderson for the game’s first goal at 1:55.

The Caps took a two-goal lead on the next shift when Mike Green floated a wrist shot from the right point that sailed past a clot of bodies in front of Anderson and past the goalie’s left shoulder.  Senators head coach Paul MacLean called his time out to settle his team down and change the game’s rhythm, which was to the Caps’ liking to that point.  The Senators had a chance to reverse the momentum when Wojtek Wolski took a high-sticking penalty at the eight minute mark of the period, but the Senators failed to record a shot on goal on the power play.

The Caps had a chance to put the Senators in a deep hole as the Wolski penalty expired, Nicklas Backstrom corralling a loose puck along the boards and sending a pass out to Wolski as he was breaking from the penalty box.  Wolski skated in alone on Anderson, but the goalie stretched his right pad to foil an attempt by Wolski to stuff the puck inside the post.  That concluded the scoring chances for the first period, the Caps skating off after 20 minutes with a 12-7 advantage in shots and a 2-0 lead on the scoreboard.

The second period featured a lot of back and forth action, but little by way of scoring chances.  Ottawa received its second power play when Alex Ovechkin was whistled off for charging on defenseman Sergei Gonchar.  Ottawa could not convert on the opportunity, though, and gave it back when Colin Greening went off for tripping Wolski at 12:55 of the period.  The Capitals were as ineffective on their power play as Ottawa was on its, and the clubs skated to the locker rooms at the second intermission with the Capitals still holding a 2-0 lead.

The third period got underway with the Caps getting another opportunity to put the Senators in a bind.  From the right wing faceoff dot Mike Ribeiro found Jason Chimera all alone on the far post for what should have been a tap-in goal, but Chimera’s redirect hit the post and rebounded under the pads of Anderson.

It was the momentum changer the Senators were looking for as they started to press the Caps harder in their own end.  Despite the heavy pressure, though, Michal Neuvirth kept the score sheet clean, foiling Eric Condra with a fine glove save off a wrist shot and keeping his frame square to the shot as Milan Michalek redirected an Erik Karlsson shot down and into Neuvirth’s pads.

The Senators looked as if they would remain snakebit in their home opener when the antidote presented itself in the form of Jason Spezza.  With the game clock under five minutes Karlsson faked a shot from the top of the offensive zone and sent a drive to Neuvirth’s right.  Spezza redirected the puck up and over Neuvirth’s right pad to halve the lead with 4:32 to play.

Ottawa pulled Anderson for an extra attacker with 1:22 left in regulation.  The strategy does not work often, but it did for the Senators in the dying seconds.  Chris Phillips sent the puck to the net where it ricocheted off legs in front.  From amid the pile of bodies in front fighting for the puck, Daniel Alfredsson backhanded the puck through Neuvirth’s pads with six seconds left to tie the game for the Senators.

Overtime opened cautiously for both teams, neither wanting to make a mistake with the added open ice at 4-on-4.  Ovechkin had an opportunity skating in on Phillips, who was giving ground to the onrushing winger, but the wrist shot Ovechkin took skimmed the near post and went wide.  The Senators had a chance when a Gonchar shot hit a body in front and skittered onto the stick of Greening, but his shot was hurried and sailed wide.  Overtime ended with both teams putting three shots on goal, but none of them in the net.

It was left to the Gimmick to settle things.  Ottawa shot first with their captain Daniel Alfredsson taking the turn.  Alfredsson skated in slowly, faked pulling the puck to his backhand and stuffed it under Neuvirth for a goal.  Matt Hendricks opened for the Caps.  Last year’s darling of the fifth period did not disappoint.  Skating deliberately toward Anderson, Hendricks reached the hash marks and feinted left, went right, and backhanded the puck over Anderson to tie things up. 

Jason Spezza took the next turn for the Senators.  Spezza went simple, going wide trying to get Neuvirth’s feet moving as he cut back across the middle.  Neuvirth left just enough of an opening for Spezza to go five-hole, and the Senators had the advantage again.  Wojtek Wolski took his turn skating directly at Anderson.  He froze Anderson by edging the puck to his backhand, then pulling it back to his forehand as Anderson bit on the move.  Wolski tucked the puck in to tie things up again.

Milan Michalek took the top of the third round for Ottawa.  He wasted no time with many moves.  He skated in, and perhaps Neuvirth was expecting something tricky, but he was unprepared for Michalek’s snapping a shot off the post past Neuvirth’s blocker and in.  That left it up to Alex Ovechkin for the Capitals.  He took a page from Michalek’s book and skated smartly toward Anderson in the Ottawa net.  He pulled a move out of yesterday, the leg pump as he hit the hash marks.  His snap shot beat Anderson, but it rang off the post and out.  The Senators took the trick shot competition and the game, 3-2.

Senators 3 – Capitals 2

A TWO-point Opening Night -- Game 1: Capitals 4 - Devils 1

It was like old times.  At the five minute mark in the pre-game Slapshot took the ice, Capitals flag carried high above his feathered head.  A minute later, the pre-game video came to life, scenes of the Capitals in action interspersed with images of iconic sites in Washington, ending with the image of the Stanley Cup shining up from the newly refurbished Reflecting Pool with Alex Ovechkin – the captain – voicing over, “it’s why we play the game.”  Wes Johnson then rendered the player introductions as only he can, calling each of the 2012-2013 Capitals to the ice and leaving the starting lineup for last…

“…and now, the starting lineup for your Wash-ing-ton CAPITA-A-A-A-A-ALS…. In goal, number 30, Michal-l-l-l-l NEU-virrrrrrrth….on defense, number 74, John CARRRRRRRRL-son….on defense, number 27, Karl ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLZ-ner…. At right wing, number 20, Troy BROUWWWWWWW-errrrr… at center, number 19, Nick-la-a-a-a-s BACK-strommmmmm… and at left wing, your captain, number 8, Alex OHHHHH-VECH-kin.”

Caleb Green set the mood with his always stirring rendition of the National Anthem, and the chant began… LET’S GO CAPS…LET’S GO CAPS… LET’S GO CAPS.  Nicklas Backstrom circled to the center dot to take the season’s opening faceoff against Adam Henrique of the New Jersey Devils.  And that is how the 38^th season of Washington Capitals hockey began.

It started slowly for the home team, which was unable to mount much of an attack, a product of opening night jitters, a new system, and the suffocating defense of the visiting Devils.  Neuvirth kept the Caps in the game early, though, turning away two excellent scoring chances by Ilya Kovalchuk, one off a one-time feed from Henrique, the other when he slipped inside defenseman Roman Hamrlik and fired a wrist shot from the high slot that Neuvirth fought off with his glove. 

The waning moments of the first period were highlighted by the season’s first scrap, Troy Brouwer taking on David Clarkson.  Brouwer leveled defenseman Mark Fayne behind the Devils’ net, and Clarkson immediately confronted Brouwer.  The two exchanged a flurry right hands with the bout looking like a draw.  The fight seemed to put some jump in the Capitals, as both Brooks Laich and Jason Chimera had excellent chances that were turned aside by Devils’ goalie Martin Brodeur.  The period ended scoreless with the Devils holding an 11-7 edge in shots on goal.

The game did not remain scoreless for long after the drop of the puck to start the second period.  Marcus Johansson, starting the game at right wing, worked a nifty give and go with newcomer Mike Ribeiro in the first minute, Johansson taking the return pass behind defenseman Andy Greene and tucking the puck under Brodeur’s right pad to give the Caps the lead.

Barely a minute later the Caps struck again.  Cycling the puck along the left wing boards, Nicklas Backstrom took the puck and sent the puck to the opposite side to the waiting stick of John Carlson.  The defenseman let fly with a slap shot that Brodeur seemed to freeze on, the puck sailing past his blocker and into the net to give the Caps a two-goal lead.

The sudden change in momentum put the Devils on their heels; they would not register a shot on goal over the first eleven minutes of the period.  Meanwhile, Brodeur was keeping the Devils in it with a pair of point-blank saves on shots by Brouwer and Matt Hendricks.  Brodeur’s acrobatics paid dividends for the Devils at the 14:48 mark of the period on an odd sequence.  Kovalchuk wristed a puck toward the Capitals’ net that deflected off a body in front.  The puck changed direction and hit the post to Neuvirth’s right.  It then caromed behind Neuvirth to the other side of the crease where it struck Dainius Zubrus in the leg and deflected in.

The Caps regained their two-goal lead late in the second when Mike Green found Alex Ovechkin on a stretch pass he threaded between defensemen Anton Volchenkov and Mark Fayne.  Ovechkin collected the puck at the red line and steamed in on Brodeur.  He showed forehand and pulled the puck onto his backhand as Brodeur went to the ice to double-stack his pads.  Ovechkin snapped the puck over Brodeur’s pads and popped the water bottle off the top of the net to give the Caps a 3-1 lead at the second intermission.

Dmitry Orlov took the first penalty of the season for the Caps 2:33 into the third period, whistled for delay of game for shooting the puck off the rink in the defensive zone.  Neuvrith calmly turned away three shots on the Devils’ man-advantage, including another one-timer from Kovalchuk ticketed for the top-corner on Neuvirth’s blocker side. 

The lost opportunity turned into one for the Caps when Travis Zajac took a hooking penalty half a minute after the Orlov penalty expired.  It took the Caps just four seconds to convert the opportunity, Nicklas Backstrom won the draw cleanly to Alex Ovechkin, who wristed the puck far side and over Brodeur’s glove to give the Caps a 4-1 lead.

From there it was a case of the Caps playing mistake-free hockey over the remaining minutes.  For the most part they did (a Matt Hendricks penalty providing some suspense), and Neuvirth did the rest, turning away the six shots he saw after the Caps’ fourth goal.  The horn sounded, Slapshot took the ice once more to plant the flag at center ice, and the fans walked into the night happy that the Adam Oates era started with a solid, 4-1 win over the defending Eastern Conference champions.

Caps 4 – Devils 1

 

Today in the NHL...

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You... Your 2012-2013 Eastern Conference Prognostos!

And now, in what might be our biggest delusion of them all, since there are no games scheduled for the foreseeable future, we bring you the only prognostos you will ever want or need on the projected finish for each NHL team to tide you over until, well, they get around to scheduling games.  First up, the Eastern Conference…

Eastern Conference

1.  New York Rangers (1st in ATL)

The New York media gets its wish, a team that has no excuses.  They have two solid scoring lines.  They can ice five forwards who had at least 50 points last season (having added winger Rick Nash), and another – Carl Hagelin – who was on a pace just short of 50 points.  They have depth on defense; they have a world-class goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist.  They have a battle-tested (not to mention baiting for a battle) head coach in John Tortorella.  They are this year’s “It” team.

2.  Boston Bruins (1st in NE)

The Bruins might miss former Vezina/Conn Smythe winner Tim Thomas at times in goal, but they also will benefit from playing in what might be the East’s weakest division, too.  This is a team that has averaged 101 standings points over the last five seasons.  They will be right in that area again this year.  Getting Nathan Horton back on a permanent basis (he missed 36 games to a concussion last season) would help.  The only question here is whether goalie Tuukka Rask is ready for a 55-60 game workload (45 games is his high, and he has only 102 games in parts of five seasons).

3.  Carolina Hurricanes (1st in SE)

The Hurricanes added defense (Jordan Staal from Pittsburgh) and offense (Alexander Semin from Washington).  They should have youngsters continue to improve elsewhere on offense (Jeff Skinner) and defense (Justin Faulk).  They could get a full season out of Joni Pitkanen (30 games last season) on the blue line.  And, the Hurricanes have the best goalie in the Southeast Division in Cam Ward, even if last season was a bit of a hiccup (his .915 save percentage stopped what had been an uninterrupted improvement over his six years in that statistic).  The question here will be the mix.  Adding Joe Corvo and Semin introduce a measure of unpredicatability that could upset the mix.

4.  Pittsburgh Penguins (2nd in ATL)

This will be the best offensive team in the league, provided it stays healthy at center.  Sidney Crosby has missed 99 games over the past two seasons to a concussion.  Evgeni Malkin, a player who generally flourishes in Crosby’s absence, has been absent for 61 games of his own over the past three years.  And with Jordan Staal now in Carolina, Brandon Sutter (part of the return in the Staal trade) will inherit the role of third line/fill-in-the-gaps center.  The defense looks better on paper than it plays too much of the time, although Kris Letang has become a top-echelon defenseman.  And one wonders whether Marc-Andre Fleury will have any aftershocks from his stunningly awful post-season in 2012 (4.63 GAA, .834 SV, both worst among playoff goalies).

5.  Washington Capitals (2nd in SE)

After the top four teams in the conference (actually three, since Carolina really is not in the class of the other three), there is a steep drop-off to the next tier of teams.  Washington spun the coaching wheel of fortune again, and it came up “Adam Oates.”  How quickly he can install his style will go a long way to determining where this team finishes.  In that sense, the Caps are one of the big losers on paper if the season starts late.  One might expect a slow start as the players absorb the new principles. But this is still a team that has Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, a team that solved (it hopes) the perennial second line center problem with Mike Ribeiro, a team that cut its ties with another perennial concern – the enigmatic stylings of Alexander Semin -- and that has two goalies with the potential to do very good things in Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby, each of whom has backstopped his team to playoff series wins (and losses…don’t forget the losses, Caps fans).  The question here is, oddly enough, whether the Caps can get anything approaching reliable scoring out of wingers not named “Ovechkin.”

6.  Philadelphia Flyers (3rd in ATL)

This is a team with huMANNNNNgous questions on the blue line.  Chris Pronger’s days as an intimidating defenseman are apparently (and sadly, given the circumstances) at an end.  Matt Carle went to Tampa Bay as a free agent.  Andrej Meszaros, who was already coming back from back surgery, will miss much, if not the entire season, to an Achilles tendon injury.  Having swung for the fences and missing on signing Nashville defenseman and restricted free agent Shea Weber to an offer sheet (Nashville matched the Flyers’ offer), it is a team that will have to squeeze another year out of 37-year old Kimmo Timonen and get solid minutes from guys like Nicklas Grossman and Luke Schenn.  Then there is the goalie from another planet, Ilya Bryzgalov.  But not for Marc-Andre Fleury, Bryzgalov would have had the worst goals-against average and worst save percentage among qualifying goaltenders in the playoffs.  Fortunately for Flyer fans, Philadelphia might have the deepest set of forwards in the East.

7.  Buffalo Sabres (2nd in NE)

Someone has to finish second in this division.  The Sabres can be that team if some things happen.  If Thomas Vanek can rebound from being a mid-20’s goal scorer to being a mid-30’s goal scorer.  If Tyler Ennis doesn’t miss 34 games again with ankle issues.  If Cody Hodgson scores more at his Vancouver pace from last season (16 goals in 63 games) than his Buffalo pace (three goals in 20 games).  If Tyler Myers’ appendages are healthy (he missed 23 games to wrist and foot injuries last season).  And perhaps biggest of all, if Ryan Miller can return to his 2009-2010 level of play (41 wins, 2.22 GAA, .929 SV, a Vezina Trophy).  Shoot, if they do all that, they could challenge Boston for the top spot in the Northeast.

8.  New Jersey Devils (4th in ATL)

How does a team replace a captain who had 31 goals and 69 points last season, who was the heart and soul of the club as it rolled to the Stanley Cup finals?  They probably do it with a philosophy that does not rely on individuals as much as it does a style that has been its trademark for a couple of decades.  Not that the New Jersey Devils cannot score. In fact, they might be underrated in this regard.  Ilya Kovalchuk had 37 goals last season. Patrik Elias had 26.  For heaven’s sake, David Clarkson had 30.  But in an odd way, Clarkson’s numbers might be an indicator.  He became a goal scorer when Adam Oates advised him to make changes to his stick.  Those are the little things a coach who pays attention to detail can do.  Oates is now in Washington in his first head coaching gig.  The question is whether they will miss him more than they do Zach Parise, who is now in Minnesota with his 31 goals and 69 points.

9.  Ottawa Senators (3rd in NE)

Ottawa snuck past Buffalo by three points last season to secure the eighth and final playoff spot in the East.  It was not for lack of trying to blow it.  The Senators went 5-6-2 down the stretch, and had the Sabres gone 3-1-1 instead of 1-3-1 in their last five games, they would have had that eighth spot.  Well, this year Ottawa does not sneak in.  They got in last year with the worst defense of any playoff qualifier (24th in goals allowed per game).  They were the fourth best offense in the league last season, but it seems a stretch to think they will get 46 goals combined out of Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Karlsson again.

10.  Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd in SE)

The Lighning finished eight points out of a playoff spot last season, but getting that close was no thanks to their defense or goaltending.  Tampa Bay finished dead last in goals allowed (almost a quarter-goal more than 29th place Toronto), and their goal differential of minus-46 was second worst in the East (to the Islanders).  Anders Lindback is likely to get a chance to improve on one problem.  Last season the duo of Mathieu Garon (38th in GAA, 39th in SV) and Dwayne Roloson (45th and last in both categories) made for the least effective goaltending duo in the game.  Roloson is gone, and Garon seems likely to get early baseball cap duty until the Lightning figure out whether Lindback can handle the workload of a number one goalie.  Since he has only 38 NHL games on his resume, it is an open question. 

11.  Florida Panthers (4th in SE)

Talk about doing it with mirrors.  The Panthers were 27th in offense, 12th in defense, 25th in penalty killing, 25th in winning percentage when leading after one period, tied for 27th in winning percentage when leading after two periods, only four teams had fewer wins in extra time, and yet they won the Southeast Division (feel better, Caps fans?).  How?  Easy…they earned (for lack of a better word) 18 standings points when losing in extra time, either by overtime goal or Gimmick.  Almost a fifth of their total standings points (94) came by losing.  It would not be unreasonable to think Tomas Fleischmann, Kris Versteeg, and Stephen Weiss could repeat their 20-goal seasons.  But for those thinking that perhaps Peter Mueller could contribute that much?  It is possible, but perhaps not the way to bet.  After a rookie year of 22 goals, he has gone from 13 to 13, then to seven in only 32 games last year (he missed 41 games to a concussion).  It could come down to those Bettman points.  If they finished with half of those points from losses last year, Florida would have had 85 points and been on the links in April.  This year, they get a dose of that.

12.  Montreal Canadiens (4th in NE)

This year’s slogan is “Raise the Torch.”  Well, they need something to light a fire under their derrieres.  Despite two 30-goal scorers last season (Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole) the Habs were 19th in scoring.  Only three other players playing with Montreal all season recorded more than ten.  Brian Gionta should do the trick if he’s healthy (eight goals in 38 games last year, a biceps injury doing him in for the rest).  In goal, one would have thought Carey Price would have finished better than 18th in GAA and 20th in save percentage.  He will have to for the Canadiens to improve enough to be in the discussion of playoff teams.

13.  Toronto Maple Leafs (5th in NE) 

The thing about Toronto last season, they were not boring either on or off the ice.  Tenth in offense, 29th in defense, you could be assured of lots of goal-scoring in Maple Leaf games (only Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay featured more).  And there is the ongoing drama in Toronto that would make for must-see prime time viewing if it was put to television.  What do they have this year that they didn’t last year to give them hope?  Well, James van Riemsdyk is new, sent to Toronto by the Flyers for defenseman Luke Schenn last June.  He improved on his rookie year goal production in his second year with Philadelphia (from 15 to 21) but dropped to 11 in 43 games (most of the games missed due to…yup, concussion).  What else do the Leafs have to instill hope?  Pretty much visions of Roberto Luongo in goal.

14.  Winnipeg Jets (5th in SE)

Brand new city, brand new attitude, and as the brand new calendar turned over to 2012 the Winnipeg Jets were 19-14-5 and in a playoff spot.  Then things took a turn.  It would be the last time the Jets were five games over .500 until March 5th, at which point they were back in the playoff mix, three points ahead of Washington for eighth place.  But the Jets finished 5-8-2 over their last 15 games and dropped to 11th by season’s end.  With the bloom off the rose, so to speak, now we will see what Winnipeg has.  They added Olli Jokinen to a team that finished 11th in scoring last season but have not done nearly enough to improve a team that was 26th in scoring defense.

15.  New York Islanders (5th in ATL)

Someday this team will be pretty good.  Really, they will.  It just will not be this year.  Their attitude seems to be “slow and sure wins the race.”  Their forwards are not much different from last season, relying on development of young guys like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo as the engine for improvement there.  On defense they did add Lubomir Visnovsky, but he comes to Long Island with his offensive production in 2011-2012 (6-21-27) sliced by more than half from his 2010-2011 production (18-50-68).  And their goaltending appears to be a battle between the oft-injured Rick DiPietro and the 37-year old Evgeni Nabokov.  The waiting continues.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! Game 1: Opening Night, Devils at Capitals

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, sadly, are not...


photo: Clydeorama

Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Previews -- Forwards: Wojtek Wolski

Wojtek Wolski

Theme: “It is never too late to be what you might have been.”

-- George Eliot

The first round of the 2004 entry draft had its share of players who have had an impact or who have had productive starts to their careers.  Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Andrew Ladd, Travis Zajac.  And that is from the first 20 picks.

That brings us to the 21st pick in that draft – Wojtek Wolski.  The Brampton Battalion forward was taken by the Colorado Avalanche on the heels of two seasons in the Ontario Hockey League in which he posted 54 goals and 127 points in 130 games.  And being a first round pick did not diminish his production, which improved to 29-44-73 in 67 games with Brampton in 2004-2005 and 47-81-128 in 56 games with the Battalion in 2005-2006.  He earned a cup of coffee with the Avalanche in 2005-2006 in which he went 2-4-6 in nine games.

It was all preparation for a rookie season in 2006-2007 in which Wolski finished fourth among rookies in points, fifth in goals, fifth in assists, tied for fifth in power play goals, and tied for 11th in game-winning goals.  It was not quite good enough to win nomination as a finalist for the Calder Trophy to be awarded to the league’s top rookie, perhaps because he did not have the best rookie numbers on his own team.  Paul Stastny ranked higher in each of those statistical categories and captured one of the nominations as a Calder finalist (Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin won the award).

It was the beginning of a “not quite good enough” phase of Wolski’s career.  He put up decent numbers with the Avalanche over the next two seasons, recording 32 goals and 90 points in 155 games.  But ranking fourth in points in 2007-2008 and third in 2008-2009 might not have seemed like enough improvement, especially for a player who was getting a reputation for a lack of physical play and low power play production (6-10-16 in those 145 games).  In 2009-2010 Wolski picked up the pace of his overall production – 17-30-47 in 62 games, a pace that put him on track for career highs in goals and points.  But his power play production did not improve (2-7-9), and Colorado seemed to be tiring of waiting for him to improve.  He was traded to Phoenix at the 2010 trading deadline for forwards Peter Mueller and 2008 Hobey Baker Award winner Kevin Porter.

The 2009-2010 season marked the first of three seasons in which Wolski would finish a season with a team different from the one with which he started.  In 2010-2011 Wolski played 36 games with the Coyotes, but was dealt to the New York Rangers for Michal Roszival at mid-season.  Wolski did not impress in New York, putting up middling numbers (6-13-19 in 37 games to close the 2010-2011 season, then no goals in six games to open the 2011-2012 season followed by a substantial number of games missed to healthy scratches and a groin injury).  He was traded to Florida in February for Michael Vernace and a 2013 third round draft pick.  After 22 regular season games in Florida in which he recorded a scoring line of 4-5-9 in 22 games and a total of 21 minutes of playoff action without a point, he was a free agent.  On July 11th that free agent became a Washington Capital, hoping to fulfill the promise of a former first round pick.

Fearless’ Take...

Despite all the moving around, Wolski has averaged 18 goals per 82 games over his career.  Even if you look at his post-Colorado career he is averaging 15 goals per 82 games.  And as to the matter of his iffy power play production (18 power play goals in 424 career games), he played with some teams that seemed to have bigger problems on the power play than Wolski.  After his rookie season he played on only one team that finished in the top-half of the power play rankings, that when he started the 2009-2010 season for a Colorado team that finished 15th (Florida finished last season seventh, but Wolski was only seventh among forwards in average power play ice time over his 22 games played with the Panthers).  It also might interest you to know that Wolski has more goals scored (95 in 424 games) than 2004 draft classmates Travis Zajac (91/423), Blake Wheeler (74/324), or Lauri Korpikoski (47/300), all drafted ahead of him.

Cheerless’ Take…

Sounds like that 2004 class might not be so great there, cuz.  I mean, Alexandre Picard, Lauri Tukonen, and Kyle Chipchura were drafted ahead of Wolski, too, and that trio of forwards has a combined 13 goals among them (all by Chipchura) in 288 NHL games.  Here is your fun fact for Wolski.  In 424 career games he has a total of 266 hits recorded.  Troy Brouwer had 247 in 82 games last season for the Caps.  And here’s another one…based on last season, sit him on Thursdays (1-0-1, minus-5 in eight games) and put him on the top line on Saturdays (2-3-5, plus-3 in six games).  Okay…small sample size.

The Big Question… Is Wojtek Wolski a contender or a pretender to be a top-six winger with the Caps?

Let’s face it.  If you are paying a former first round draft choice $600,000 on a one-year deal, you’re hoping for, not expecting big things.  This what is called a low-risk signing.  But if Wolski can score goals at something approaching his career pace per 82 games (18) and perhaps chip in a couple of extra goals with some power play time under the tutelage of Adam Oates, that just about replaces Alexander Semin’s production last season (21 goals) at less than a tenth of the cost.  And if he doesn’t, well, you still have the $6.1 million you’re not paying Semin this season (net of the $6.7 million cap hit last year) to do other things.  What is unnerving about Wolski is the idea that he has been traded as many times as he has in so few seasons and that he has gone from a team’s “topline to its fourth line to a healthy scratch to a salary dump.”  This is not the sort of career arc that one should feel comfortable thinking is that of a potential top-six forward.

In the end…

Wolski can speak for himself… "I still have a lot of life left in me.  I'm at a point in my career where I'm at a crossroads, and I've got to make it work."  He should get an opportunity in Washington, where dependable scoring wingers are at a premium after Alex Ovechkin.  But of those wingers not named “Ovechkin,” Wolski might bring the most uncertainty.  He could be a 20-goal scorer for this team as a second line left wing who gets some time on the second power play unit.  He also could be a fourth liner who gets ten minutes a night, scores half a dozen goals, and finds himself in the press box when the games matter most.  That, dear reader, is a decent working description of “crossroads.”  It is an opportunity to be what he could have been as a first round draft pick.

Projection:  63 games, 12-15-27, minus-2