Washington Capitals: 2020-2021 By the Tens -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“Reputation is an idle and most false imposition; oft got without merit, and lost without deserving.”
-- William Shakespeare (Othello, Act II, scene iii)

We tend to be on the wordy side in this space, but if we were to quote every instance in which Tom Wilson was characterized as a dirty player, a player who targets opponents, a player who should be suspended for every hit he makes, we could fill a library.  True, Wilson does play on the edge sometimes, perhaps more often than your average player, and that means crossing that line sometimes.  And there are those who take the time to chronicle every instance.  What it means is that Wilson, now an eight-year veteran with 569 regular season and 82 postseason games on his resume, has a reputation.  And one wonders if that reputation is the dark lens through which fans of opposing teams see him and those in the NHL Department of Player Safety evaluate every incident within a time zone of crossing the line of “dirty” play with a tendency to “over-suspend” him for cases that would draw a far lesser punishment if committed by other players.  That is a discussion for another time, except to say that his “reputation” casts a long shadow over a career over which he has established himself in the top echelon of power forwards – players who not only have a physical edge, but who perform at a high level in a variety of situations. 

Fearless’ Take… Tom Wilson continues maturing as a player who is multi-dimensional.  Many will look at a single dimension and try to pigeon-hole him as a throwback to the brawling ‘70’s, but he finished tied for fifth in goal scoring for the Caps this season (13), tied for fifth in assists (20), fifth in points (33), fourth in power play goals (four), tied for fifth in power play points (eight), tied for second in game-winning goals (four), fourth in credited hits (105), fifth in hits per 60 minutes (8.10), fifth among forwards in blocked shots (25), and sixth among forwards in takeaways (20).  He averaged more than a minute per game on power plays (1:40) and on the penalty kill (1:35).

Cheerless’ Take… The Caps were not very successful when Tom Wilson ran afoul of the rules.  In 19 games in which he was charged with at least one penalty, the Caps were 9-9-1.  They were 19-6-3 in 28 games in which he didn’t spend time in the penalty box.  And the Caps were not particularly successful when Wilson was physical within the rules.  When credited with three or more hits, the Caps were 7-7-3 in 17 games.  Add to that the Caps’ record of 7-6-3 in 16 games in which Wilson logged at least 18 minutes of ice time, and it made for an odd season.

Odd Wilson Fact… Tom Wilson’s goals-per-game have dropped off a bit over the last three seasons (0.35/0.31/0.28), but his points-per-game have increased (0.63/0.65/0.70).  Credit his helpers, which have increased significantly (0.29/0.34/0.43).

Odd Wilson Fact II… While his scoring did not change much after his seven-game suspension in March for his hit on Boston defenseman Brandon Carlo, his penalty minutes did.  In 21 games before the suspension, he compiled 25 penalty minutes (1.19 minutes per game), including 10 minutes in the game against Boston in which he earned his suspension.  But in 26 games after the suspension, he compiled 71 minutes (2.73 minutes per game).  However, 43 of those 71 minutes were recorded in his last five games of the regular season.

Odd Wilson Fact III… The Caps were 7-0-0 in the seven games Wilson was suspended in March.

Game to Remember… May 3, 2021 vs. New York Rangers

Most fans might remember this as the infamous game in which Tom Wilson took exception to New York Ranger players taking liberties with goalie Vitek Vanecek in the form of a series of whacks meant to separate Vanecek from the puck in his crease.  What ensued was unpleasant…

But lost in the chaos in that second period moment, which earned Wilson a pair of roughing calls and a ten-minute misconduct, was that he had an otherwise productive game.  He earned an assist on a goal by Conor Sheary that gave the Caps a 2-0 lead late in the first period.  He logged 1:44 in penalty killing time (he was not on the ice when the Rangers scored their lone power play goal of the contest), apart from the penalty he was rather tame (one credited hit), and he put the final touch of frosting on the cake with an empty net goal in the last two minutes of the contest to finish with what would be his ninth and last multi-point game of the season.  He would be one of four players this season to record a multi-point game while charged with 15 or more penalty minutes, and he would be the only one to do it while logging less than 12 minutes of ice time (11:49).

Game to Forget… May 5, 2021 vs. New York Rangers

Two nights after that memorable game, the Caps and Rangers faced off again to wrap up the two-game set at Madison Square Garden.  It would be a memorable night for T.J. Oshie, who would record a hat trick on the day after his father’s passing.  But for Tom Wilson, it was a game to set aside.  Ten seconds into his first shift of the game, in the first minute of the first period, he answered the call of Brendan Smith to settle scores from the previous game.  Wilson would skate only three more shifts, retiring for the evening after an early second period shift as he left the penalty box after earning a ten-minute misconduct late in the first period.  He suffered an upper body injury that limited his evening to 2:36 in total ice time, by far his lowest of the season.  He left, unsurprisingly, without a mark on his line of the scoresheet except for the 15 minutes in penalties he earned.

Postseason… One goal, one assists, a minus-3 rating in five games.  It was the second consecutive disappointment of a postseason for Wilson, who finished the 2020 postseason 1-2-3, minus-5, in eight games (although his lone goal in last season’s playoffs was a game-winner).  Wilson’s performances in postseasons to date have been less than impressive.  He was 5-10-15, plus-11, in 21 games of the Stanley Cup run in 2018, but otherwise he is 8-7-15, minus-15, in 61 career postseason games.

Looking ahead… Wilson has three years remaining on a six-year/$31.0 million contract ($5.167 million annual cap hit).  Among 16 forwards age 25-30 in 2020-2021 (Wilson is 27) with salary cap hits between $4.75 and $5.25 million, Wilson’s performance was in the lower third in goals scored and ice time, and middle of the pack in points.  And, after a season in which his penalty minutes per game plummeted (from 2.03 in 2018-2019 to 1.37 in 2019-2020), they jumped back over 2.00 per game this season (2.03). although that was largely a product of the truculence displayed against the Rangers in those two late season contests in which he logged 31 of his total of 96 penalty minutes for the season.

In the end…

Tom Wilson has a reputation around the league for being undisciplined, rambunctious, and prone to coloring outside the lines.  Okay, let’s face it, if you’re not a Caps fan, chances are better than even that you believe him to be a dirty player.  It looked as if he was playing himself out of that reputation coming into this season, or at least diminishing it.  But he might not have done himself any favors with his suspension in March or his ill humor against the Rangers in two games in May.  To that add that his production over the last two seasons has plateaued or even slipped a bit, and one could be forgiven for expecting Wilson should be – must be – a more productive player inside the rules when the puck drops on the 2021-2022 season.  It was not a bad season for Wilson by any means, but one is left with the odd feeling that there should have been more meaningful results.

Grade: B

 

 

Washington Capitals: 2020-2021 By the Tens -- Forwards: Daniel Sprong

Daniel Sprong

“He is happiest, be he king or peasant, who finds peace in his home.”
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Some journeys are taken on smooth roads, others on gravel paths.  For Daniel Sprong, the path that brought him to Washington resembled the latter more than the former.  A second-round pick in the 2015 Entry Draft by the Pittsburgh Penguins, one might expect a player taken in that vicinity to have a better than even chance at a respectable NHL career (23 of 31 second round picks of that draft have appeared in at least one NHL game, seven of them in more than 200 games).  Sprong got early exposure to the NHL, dressing for 18 games with the Pens in the season following his selection.  Things did not go smoothly from there, however.  In 2017-2018 he appeared in only eight games with Pittsburgh (2-1-3, plus-2), but he followed that up with a difficult start to the 2018-2019 season in which he went 0-4-4, minus-7, in 16 games with the Pens. 

He was traded to Anaheim in December 2018 for defenseman Marcus Pettersson, and it seemed he might have found a home, going 14-5-19 in 47 games with the Ducks.  The following season he appeared in just eight games for Anaheim (1-1-2, minus-2).  He was traded by the Ducks to the Caps in February 2020 for defenseman Christian Djoos, perhaps a reflection of a disturbing statistic that made its way into his resume.  Over the 2019-2019/2019-2020 seasons Sprong ranked 411^th among 437 forwards appearing in at least 50 games in on-ice even strength goals-for percentage (38.6).  He was on ice for a significantly higher number of goals against (43) than goals for (27).  Is a brief stint with the Hershey Bears to close the 2019-2020 season, he displayed his offensive gifts, going 1-5-6 in five games with the Bears.  He got his chance with the Caps this season, appearing in 42 games and posting a 13-7-20, plus-7 scoring line, recording his best scoring rates of his career for goals (0.31 per game) and points (0.48 per game).

Fearless’ Take… It took Sprong a while to work his way into the lineup, appearing in only 12 of the Caps first 23 games of the season, going 3-1-4, minus-1.  But he dressed for 30 of the final 33 games of the regular season schedule, going 10-6-16, plus-8, a 25-15-40, plus-20 pace over 82 games.  What is more, the Caps were successful when his ice time was higher, not what one might expect for a player who has an iffy record on defense (9-3-0 when he skated at least 13 minutes).  In that same vein, Sprong had an on-ice even strength goal differential of plus-7 (third-best among forwards) and an on-ice even strength goals for percentage of 56.4, third-best among forwards appearing in more than ten games.  And, the Caps were 12-3-2 when he recorded at least one point.

Cheerless’ Take… For an offense-oriented player, his engagement on offense was not entirely successful.  In 12 games in which he recorded three or more shots on goal, the Caps were just 3-6-3, although he was 6-2-8 in those 12 games.  On the other hand, they were 6-1-1 in eight games in which he did not record a shot on goal.  He had only one assist in those eight games.

Odd Sprong Fact… Since the NHL began capturing blocked shots data in 2005-2006, Daniel Sprong is one of eight forwards to appear in at least 40 games and record one or no blocked shots in a season (he had one in 42 games).

Odd Sprong Fact II… Sprong was one of four players in the NHL this season to average less than 12 minutes per game (11:40) and post thee or more game-winning goals (three).

Odd Sprong Fact III… Since coming into the NHL in 2015-2016, Sprong is the only player in the league to have recorded more than 30 goals (32) and fewer than 20 assists (18).

Game to Remember… April 24, 2021 vs. New York Islanders.  As April was winding down and the Caps were headed to Long Island to wrap up the road portion of their season series against the New York Islanders, Daniel Sprong was in a slump.  In 17 games before facing the Islanders, Sprong was 1-5-6, posting that lone goal on 33 shots (3.0 shooting percentage).  He was quiet on the score sheet to open this game, too.  The Caps scored the first two goals before the game was 11 minutes old, but the Isles got even on a pair of special teams goals – one on a power play, the other shorthanded – to get even.  Nic Dowd put the Caps in front in the 13^th minute of the second period, and then Sprong gave the Caps some breathing room.  Taking advantage of a weary defense on a long shift, followed by a poor line change, Evgeny Kuznetsov took a pass from Sprong at the Islanders blue line and skated in on goalie Ilya Sorokin.  Sprong followed Kuznetsov on his left and was in perfect position when Kuznetsov slid the puck across the low slot, and despite Josh Bailey getting his stick on the puck, Sprong swatted it off his stick and into the open side of the net at the 14:46 mark to make it a 4-2 game.  The Islanders got back to within a goal, but Kuznetsov put the Caps back up by a pair early in the third period.  Sprong put the icing on the cake with under five minutes left on a nifty play off a faceoff.  Kuznetsov got enough of the draw to the left of Sorokin to give Tom Wilson a chance to jump on the loose puck. He slid it back to Sprong at the top of the right wing circle for a one-timer that banged off the iron on the far side to Sorokin’s right and in to close the scoring in a 6-3 Caps win.  It was Sprong’s first multi-goal game as a Capital.  It was also the first game of what would be a three-game goal scoring streak and the start of a run that saw him score six goals in his last eight games of the regular season.

Game to Forget… May 1, 2021 vs. Pittsburgh.  Players always want to do well against a team for whom they once played and who gave up on them.  Such was the case when the Caps hosted the Pittsburgh Penguins to open the May schedule.  Sometimes, though, those games go sideways for the player, and it was the case for Sprong.  In 15 minutes and change of ice time, he recorded a season-high five hits against his old squad.  But he managed only two shots on goal, did not record a point, and skated only five shifts (3:33 in ice time) in the third period in a 3-0 loss to the Pens.

Postseason… Sprong got his first career taste of postseason action with the Caps in the opening round matchup against Boston.  He appeared in only three games of the five-game loss to the Bruins (Games 1, 2, and 5) and recorded one point (an assist) despite posting 11 shots on goal while averaging 10:23 I nice time per game.

Looking ahead… Sprong was extended by the Caps, signing a two-year/$1.45 million contract to cover the next two years.  In terms of his offensive potential, this could be one of the better value contracts.  But he will have to produce without slipping into old habits on defense.  He provide some needed spark and some clutch goal scoring for the Caps this past season, and if he could duplicate that result without the uncertainty of whether or not he will be in the lineup on a night-to-night basis, he could be an important element on next year’s team.

In the end…

In one sense, Sprong has been here before.  When he was traded by Pittsburgh to Anaheim in December 2018, his performance with the Ducks suggested he might have found a home.  This season, his first in Washington, he had a season that resembled that first season with the Ducks in terms of his offensive production.  Whether he can build on that and avoid the drop off he experienced in his second season in Anaheim will be a story line to watch, to see if he is home at last. 

Grade: B

Washington Capitals: 2020-2021 By the Tens -- Forwards: Conor Sheary

Conor Sheary

“'Tis a lesson you should heed–Try again;
If at first you don’t succeed, Try again.
Then your courage should appear;
For if you will persevere,
You will conquer, never fear,
Try again.”

-- William Edward Hickson

Conor Sheary’s career has been one big “try again” adventure.  He scored 38 goals and 66 points in four seasons at University of Massachusetts-Amherst), but was undrafted.  He signed as a free agent with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL, and after going 20-25-45 in 58 games in his first full AHL season, he signed as a free agent with the parent Pittsburgh Penguins in the NHL.  In three seasons with Pittsburgh he went 48-45-93, plus-25, in 184 games, but he was then traded to the Buffalo Sabres with Matt Hunwick for a 2019 fourth round draft pick in what looked like a salary dump move.  His production tailed off in Buffalo (23-30-53, minus-22, in 133 games) and he was traded back to the Penguins at the trading deadline in 2020.  His second stint in Pittsburgh lasted eight games, over which he went just 1-3-4, minus-1.  His contract having expired, he found his was as a free agent to Washington in December 2020 with a “show-me-what-you-got” $735,000 one-year deal that was a far cry from the #3.0 million a year deal that just expired.

Fearless’ Take… I guess you could say he “showed ‘em,” cousin.  He went 14-8-22 in 53 games, his 1.2 goals per 60 minutes being his best since he averaged 1.4 goals per 60 minutes in 2016-2017 with the Penguins.  Those 14 goals ranked fourth for the Caps this season.  He was also quite consistent over his ten-game splits, posting two or three even strength goals in five of the six splits (he had a power play goal in the fifth ten-game split to give him four overall in that one).  Sheary was also effective in puck protection.  He recorded 25 takeaways (fourth-best on the team among forwards) compared to only eight giveaways (fewest among Capitals forwards appearing in more than ten games) for a 3.1-to-1 ratio of takeaways to giveaways.

Cheerless’ Take… Sheary seemed to fade a bit down the stretch.  He was 11-8-19 in his first 40 games, averaging almost a half point per game and shooting to a 20.0 percent level. But in his last 13 games he was 3-0-3 and shot just 9.1 percent despite averaging 15:26 in ice time per game.

Odd Sheary Fact… Sheary’s 13 even strength goals tied for second on the club, oddly enough, with fellow ex-Penguin Daniel Sprong.

Odd Sheary Fact II… Sheary was an example of the virtues of secondary scoring.  The Caps were 11-0-1 in games in which he scored a goal.  The only loss?  Yup, to the Penguins (3-2 overtime loss on February 23^rd).

Odd Sheary Fact III… Even though he posted 14 goals, a modest number, he spread them around.  He had at least one against each of the Caps’ seven East Division opponents this season, with a high of four against the Philadelphia Flyers.

Game to Remember… May 8, 2021 vs. Philadelphia.  Conor Sheary performed some of his best work this season against the Flyers (4-2-6, plus-2, in eight games), but he really put a cherry on top of the sundae in his last game against Philadelphia this season.  The Caps were coming off a 4-2 win in the first of a back-to-back set of games to close their season series against the Flyers, a game in which Sheary was shut out on the score sheet.  The second game of the set was a closer, harder fought affair in which the teams carried a scoreless tie into the third period.  Scott Laughton scored for the Flyers less than four minutes into the final frame, but Lars Eller tied things up with less than a minute left in regulation, leaving the teams to settle the matter in extra time.  With the clock ticking down to one minute left in overtime, Nic Dowd had the puck on his stick skating down the left wing.  Meanwhile, Conor Sheary was taking advantage of some lackadaisical defense by forward James van Riemsdyk and skated past him at the Flyers’ blue line.  Dowd found Sheary dashing down the middle, and with a step on van Rimesdyk, Sheary took the pass and tried goalie Alex Lyon’s five hole. 

The puck found just enough of an opening to slide over the goal line, and the Caps had a 2-1 overtime win, Sheary scoring his first overtime and first game-winning goal as a Capital.

Game to Forget… April 15, 2021 vs. Buffalo

When the Buffalo Sabres came to town on April 15^th, they were facing a team on a roll.  The Caps were on a three-game winning streak in which they outscored opponents, 18-5.  Conor Sheary was a big part of that, going 3-2-5, plus-2, in those three games.  The Sabres were 1-2-1 in four games leading up to the contest and had an overall record of 10-25-7.  On paper, this should have been no contest.  It wasn’t, just not in the way Caps fans might have hoped.  After a 1-1 first period, Buffalo scored early in the second, added a shorthanded goal, and after the Caps drew back within a goal took another two-goal lead late in the period.  And empty netter in the third period capped a 5-2 Sabres win, a game Conor Sheary might want to toss in the dumpster.  In 13:48 of ice time, he recorded one shot on goal, a pair of missed shots, and did not post a mark in any other statistical category.  He was on ice, though, for three goals scored by the Sabres and finished with a season-worst minus-3.  It was a bit of a shock to the system for Sheary, this being the first game of a 13-games stretch to finish the regular season in which he was 3-0-3, minus-3 (one of the goals being the game-winner referenced above).

Postseason… Sheary’s postseason did not match his regular season.  In the five-game opening round loss to Boston he was 1-0-1, minus-4, and he was on ice for five even strength goals against, tied for most on the team.  If the Caps needed support from the bottom-six forwards, they could have used more from Sheary, but he was not alone in his struggles in this series.

Looking ahead… Sheary’s performance in the regular season warranted a reward, and he was extended in April with a two-year/$3.0 million deal.  He earned a place as a fixture on the bottom six, but he also displayed some ability to step up into a more responsible scoring role.  Having a season in Washington under his belt and a commitment from the team for two more years could provide the stability that allows him to focus even more on his on-ice performance.  In that respect, it will be interesting to see if he can improve on what was a pleasant surprise of a season.

In the end…

No one thinks of Conor Sheary as an elite offensive threat, but by the same token he seems to be underrated as an offensive performer.  It might be said of him that he fills the cracks that occur from time to time.  With the Caps being a team that might experience some significant roster movement in this off-season, having him play a steady role could help provide the kind of stability the Caps need going into next season.  He has spent a career “try, trying again;” and now it is time for him to fulfill his role on a consistent basis.

Grade: B+

 

Washington Capitals: 2020-2021 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“Change alone is eternal, perpetual, immortal.”
-- Arthur Schopenhauer

He came into the NHL in 2005 as a frisky 20-year-old, the number one overall pick in the 2004 Entry Draft.  His combination of goal scoring, thunderous hits, and goal celebrations (often punctuated by leaping into the glass) made him an instant fan favorite.   Eight 50-goal seasons, nine Maurice Richard Trophies, a Calder Trophy (top rookie), a Ross Trophy (top scorer), three Hart Trophies (most valuable player), three Lindsay Awards (outstanding player), eight NHL first all-star teams, seven all-star games, a Conn Smythe Trophy (playoff most valuable player), and oh yes, a Stanley Cup later, and Ovechkin is a 35-year old legend.  Which is not to say that he is in the twilight of his career.  Not just yet, anyway.  He had 24 goals in 45 games in 2020-2021, a 44-goal pace over 82 games.  And if you think that is evidence of his slowing down, only 23 players not named “Ovechkin” have at least one 44-goal season since Ovechkin came into the league in 2005-2006.

Fearless’ Take… It was a bit of an odd year for Ovechkin.  Consider his 5-on-5 goal scoring.  Over his first 15 seasons, Ovechkin averaged 1.20 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time.  In 2020-2021, a year that many might consider a down year for him, he averaged 1.30 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time.  That he would be as productive as he was in an abbreviated season is not unusual for him.  Ovechkin has played in three abbreviated seasons in his career – 2012-2013 (a 48-game season), 2019-2020 (69 games), and this past season (56 games).  In those seasons he recorded 104 goals in 161 games played, a 53-goal pace per 82 games.

Cheerless’ Take… If there was one thing creeping into Ovechkin’s game that hasn’t been there before, it was absences.  In his first 15 seasons, Ovechkin missed a grand total of 31 games (including games lost to personal matters or suspensions), an uncommon level of reliability for one who plays as physical a game as Ovechkin.  But this season he missed 11 games.  There were four to COVID protocol in January, and then there was an injury sustained in late April that kept him out of seven of the last nine games of the regular season and limited him to one shift and 39 seconds in one of the two games he played.

Odd Ovechkin Fact… Of Ovechkin’s 24 goals in 45 games, 16 of them were recorded in a 20-game stretch from March 11^th through April 17^th.  He did not score a goal in the four games he played after that to close the regular season.

Odd Ovechkin Fact II… His ice time record was a classic case of higher ice times resulting in worse team performance, perhaps owing to the Caps trailing in such games necessitating his increased ice presence.  The Caps were 3-8-1 in the 12 games in which he skated at least 22:16.  At the other end, they were 7-0-0 when he skated 16:43 or less.

Odd Ovechkin Fact III… Ovechkin is the only active player to average more than half a goal per game since reaching his 30^th birthday (0.58; Brad Marchand is second at 0.46 goals per game).

Game to Remember… March 16, 2021 vs. New York Islanders

When the New York Islanders came calling in mid-March at Capital One Arena, they were going to face a hot team and a hot player.  The Caps were returning home after a 3-0-0 road trip and were looking to extend a five-game winning streak overall.  Alex Ovechkin was on a three-game goal scoring streak of his own and had four goals in his previous five games.  But the Islanders, if anything, were even hotter, arriving in Washington with a nine-game win streak and a 12-game points streak (11-0-1).  T.J. Oshie got the Caps off on the right foot with a goal in the 11^th minute of the first period.  Ovechkin assisted on the goal, making him the 35^th player in NHL history to record 1,300 career points and 20^th to do it in fewer than 1,200 games.  Then, the Caps went on a power play late in the period, and this happened:

It was Ovechkin’s 718^th career goal, passing Phil Esposito for sixth place on the all-time NHL goal scoring list, and scored as so many of his goals have been recorded, on the power play from his “office” in the left wing circle.   That it would be done on home ice, with former coach Barry Trotz on hand behind the opponent’s bench made it a bit more memorable.

Game to Forget… April 18, 2021 vs. Boston.  This is actually a “take your pick” pick.  Ovechkin had two minus-4 games this season, both in Boston against the Bruins a month apart.  The first came on March 5^th, when he had one of his more frustrating games – eight shots on goal, four hits, no points, on ice for four Bruins goals, and all in 22:41 in ice time.  The April 18^th game might be more forgettable, though.  He was on ice when Boston opened the scoring, the Caps allowing a shorthanded goal to Patrice Bergeron while they were on a power play.  And then, after the Caps took a 3-2 lead early in the second period, he was on ice for three of the four unanswered goals scored by the Bruins in what would end up being a 6-3 loss to Boston.  He finished with five shots on goal, but he also had four attempts blocked.  He had five credited hits, but also a pair of giveaways.  And he did it in less ice time than in the March game in Boston (19:26).  Almost half that ice time (8:30) was spent on power plays, and while he was on ice for one power play goal, he recorded no points with the man advantage.

Postseason… Despite back and leg injuries, Alex Ovechkin still tied for the team lead in goals (two) and points (four) in the Caps’ first round five-game loss to Boston in the postseason.  He also recorded 20 shots on goal, comfortably at the top of the team rankings.  On the other hand, he had only one even strength point (an assist), both goals and the remainder of his points on power plays.  It was the first time he went without an even strength goal in the playoffs since 2013, when he had none in a seven-game first round loss to the New York Rangers (also the only other time in his career he failed to record an even strength goal in the postseason).  Despite the injuries, Ovechkin finished the 2021 postseason continuing a productive run dating back to last season.  He is 6-3-9 in his last nine playoff games.

Looking ahead… Alex Ovechkin is a free agent.  Not that many believe he will sign a contract with any NHL team but the Caps, but how he gets to “signed” is one of the more complicated matters of the off-season.  Will he be unprotected for the expansion draft, allowing the Caps to protect another forward, before he signs a new deal?  Will he go straight to a new contract?  If so, for how long and at what compensation.  His just expired deal had a $9.538 million salary cap hit, and while it would be nice if his new deal provided some level of relief in terms of a lower number, a $10.0 million per year number is a nice round number, too. 

Then there is the matter of term, and this is where his future intersects with his pursuit of the all-time NHL career goal scoring mark held by Wayne Gretzky (894).  Ovechkin needs 165 goals to pass Gretzky to capture the top spot, and given that he scored 46 or more goals in 11 of his 16 seasons, the possibility he accomplishes the feat cannot be discounted.  But he will be 36 years old when the puck drops on the 2021-2022 season.  If his window is four years, he would need to average just over 41 goals per season to get to 895.  Only three players in NHL history have posted seasons with 41 or more goals, and none of them (Teemu Selanne (48 in 2006-2007), Gordie Howe (44 in 1968-1969), and Phil Esposito (42 in 1978-1979)) did it more than once. 

If you ae looking at a milestone Ovechkin is likely to reach much sooner, when he takes the ice for his third game next season, he will become the eighth player in NHL history to record 700 or more goals and play in 1,200 or more games. 

In the end…

It was a frustrating season for Alex Ovechkin, who had to deal with injury/illness absences to a degree he avoided over the first 15 seasons of his career.  He still managed to be a productive scorer, but the consistency one usually finds in his production was lacking, most of it coming in a limited stretch of games.  Ovechkin will have to return to the more durable, more consistently productive player of years past for the Caps to challenge for a Stanley Cup in 2021-2022, but fans know by this time that discounting Ovechkin’s ability to push back against Father Time can be a fool’s errand.

Grade: B

 

Washington Capitals: 2020-2021 By the Tens -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“The common eye sees only the outside of things, and judges by that, but the seeing eye pierces through and reads the heart and the soul.”
― Mark Twain

Wasn’t this about the time T.J. Oshie was supposed to be slowing down, when his contract became a liability in the context of diminishing production?  Well, based on his results in 2020-2021, we will have to wait at least another season on that.  Playing 53 of 56 games, Oshie posted the second highest goals-per-game of his career (0.42; he had 0.49 with the Caps in 2016-2017), the second highest points-per-game of his career (0.81; he had 0.82 in 2016-2017), and the second highest shooting percentage of his career (20.8; he had a league leading 23.1 in 2016-2017). He did it while averaging just 18:04 in ice time per game, his second lowest of his career with the Caps and third lowest of his career overall, thus making him a rather efficient offensive player in the larger scheme of things.

Fearless’ Take… Looking at his ten-game splits, one wonders what Oshie’s numbers might have looked like if there was a full 82-game season.  There were the two goals in the first split, followed by three, then two.  But in the last three splits, those goal totals were five, six, and four, and it was in that last split (a short one, given the 56-game season) that Oshie had a hat trick, giving him three multi-goal games in his last 13 games of the season.  He finished the season with 15 goals in his last 21 games after a difficult stretch in which he had only three in 16 games.  There is also a bit of a pleasant oddity in his time on ice.  Often it seems that offensive players with high ice times end up on the losing side of the ledger owing to their getting more time in games in which their team trails, but the Caps were 8-2-3 in the 13 games in which Oshie skated more than 20 minutes. 

Cheerless’ Take… The Caps were 10-5-2 (.647 points percentage) when Oshie scored one or more goals, 24-9-3 (.708) when he was shut out on goals.  Huh…imagine that.  Oh, and cuz, on that ice time thing, the Caps were 11-0-0 in games in which Oshie skated less than 16 minutes.

Odd Oshie Fact… In six seasons with the Caps, T.J. Oshie averaged less than 0.25 goals per game only once (0.24 in 2017-2018).  In seven seasons with St. Louis, he averaged more than 0.25 goals per game only once (0.27 in 2013-2014).

Odd Oshie Fact II… Since 2005-2006, when the NHL began capturing such statistics, Oshie is one of only six players to have recorded more than 600 takeaways and fewer than 400 giveaways.  

Odd Oshie Fact III… Since arriving in Washington in 2014-2015, Oshie has dealt in round numbers – 150 goals, 150 assists, 300 points.

Game to Remember… May 5, 2021 vs. New York Rangers.  How many times will a player record a hat trick and have none of the goals come at 5-on-5?  Well, it happened to T.j. Oshie in a game against the New York Rangers as the regular season was coming to its conclusion, and the Caps were wrapping up the road portion of their season.  After a scoreless first period, Oshie got the Caps on the board just 12 seconds into the second period.  Taking a long cross ice pass from Brenden Dillon at the Rangers’ blue line, he skated down the right wing and snapped a shot past goalie Alexandar Georgiev with just two seconds remaining in a Caps power play.  Eight minutes later, with the Caps on another man advantage, Oshie struck again.  Georgiev made a save on an initial shot from the top of the offensive zone by Dmitry Orlov, but he left a juicy rebound that Oshie was too happy to gobble up, swatting it from the edge of the right wing circle past Georgiev to make it a 2-0 game.  The teams exchanged goals after that, leaving the Caps with a 3-1 lead to protect as the third period was winding down.  With the Rangers having pulled Georgiev for an extra attacker in the last two minutes, Oshie took a feed from Carl Hagelin and fired a shot from just inside his own blue line that found the net to complete the hat trick a day after the passing of his father, the importance of the moment not lost on his teammates.

Game to Forget… February 4, 2021 vs. New York Rangers.  It was the same ice sheet on which Oshie had his most memorable moment of the season that he had one that he and the Caps might like to forget.  It was one of those games that the Caps never seemed to be in, allowing a goal less than two minutes into the game, falling behind by a 2-0 margin mid-way through the second period, and unable to generate much offense or enthusiasm despite an Alex Ovechkin goal mid-way through the third that got the Caps within a goal.  New York added an empty net goal for a 4-2 win.  In the loss, Oshie was on ice for three of the Rangers’ four goals, recorded only one shot attempt, finished with no points, and posted a minus-3 rating, his worst of the season.

Postseason… Oshie tied for the team lead in points, posting four (1-3-4) in the five-game loss to Boston in the opening round.  But on the other hand, he was also on ice for five goals scored by the Bruins at even strength, tied for most on the team, and he had a minus-2 goal differential at even strength.  On the other other hand, he had five takeaways (most on the team) and was plus-2 in takeaways-to-giveaways.

Looking ahead… T.J. Oshie has three years remaining on an eight-year/$46.0 million contract and has been mentioned as a favorite to be selected by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft to be held later this summer.  The buzz on Oshie being at or near the top of the selection list among Capitals is largely a product of related factors – age (he will turn 35 in December), a history of injuries, and a style of play that places great strain on his body, bringing into question whether the last years of his contract would be a liability for the salary cap-strained Capitals.  That he would play in all 69 games of the COVID-shortened 2019-2020 season and all but three games of this past season seems to have cooled the discussion a bit, but it remains a matter to watch as the summer wears on.

In the end…

If Nicklas Backstrom is the brains of the Capitals operation, and Alex Ovechkin is the brawn who wills pucks into the net, T.J. Oshie is the heart and soul, who plays bigger than his listed size (5’11”/196), goes into the tough areas for scoring and digging out pucks, and displays a work ethic second to none.  It was a difficult season for Oshie on a personal level, but on the ice another season where he was one of the most effective skaters.  The combination serves to further cement his place as a special player in Caps history deserving of the affection Capitals Nation has for him.

Grade: A-

Photo: Nick Wass/AP

Washington Capitals: 2020-2021 By the Tens -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

“I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.”
-- Umberto Eco

If the whole world is not an enigma, the corner of it inhabited by Washington Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov is.  In eight seasons with the Caps, Kuznetsov has built a solid resume – 26^th on the all-time franchise list in games played (520), tied for 21^st in goals scored (129), 13^th in assists (289), 14^th in points (418), tied for 12^th in plus-minus rating (plus-68), 19^th in points per game (0.80; minimum: 100 games), 24^th in power play goals (34), 20^th in power play points (120), fourth in overtime goals (seven), tied for 12^th in game-winning goals (24), and for good measure third in Gimmick goals (19).

But 2020-2021 is a season he will not be memorializing his personal scrapbook.  After recording a goal and two assists in his first four games of the season, he missed eight games due to COVID-protocol.  He returned to perform sluggishly with a goal and two assists in seven games before missing two more games to an upper body injury.  He came back to post seven goals and 23 points in 30 games before heading back on the shelf for the last five games of the regular season with his second bout with COVID that carried into the postseason.  He finished 9-20-29, plus-7, in just 41 games played.

Fearless’ Take… Even with the 15 games missed, Evgeny Kuznetsov finished the regular season fifth on the club in points and in points per game.  And, unsurprisingly, when he scored, good things happened.  The Caps were 14-2-4 in the 20 games in which he recorded a point (6-0-1 in multi-point games) and 6-1-1 in games in which he scored a goal.

Cheerless’ Take… There were too many instances when Kuznetsov was in the lineup this season that he seemed invisible.  Natural Stat Trick captures a statistic – Individual Point Percentage -- the percentage of goals for that player's team while that player is on the ice that the player earned a point on.  In the last five seasons before this one, Kuznetsov’s IPP never dropped below 65 percent.  But this season it was 55.88 percent.  There were also the scoring chances/high danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 (iSCF/iHDCF in the Natural Stat Trick linked table), and those, even accounting for the fewer games played, were down for Kuznetsov. 

Odd Kuznetsov Fact… The Caps were just 11-9-0 when Kuznetsov logged more than 17 minutes in ice time, 10-0-1 when he logged 15 minutes or less.

Odd Kuznetsov Fact II… In seven full seasons in the NHL, since 2014-2015, 151 players have taken at least 2,000 faceoffs.  Of that group, Kuznetsov ranks 147^th in winning percentage (43.6).  Only once in those seven years did Kuznetsov finish over 45 percent (2015-2016/47.8 percent).

Odd Kuznetsov Fact III… Over the last five seasons, Kuznetsov’s shooting efficiency has had a “sawtooth” character to it – 11.2 percent in 2016-2017, followed by 14.4, 10.9, 14.7, and 11.5 this past season.

Game to Remember… March 25, 2021 vs. New Jersey.  When the New Jersey Devils came to town for a late March game at Capital One Arena, the Caps were coming off a 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers that snapped a seven-game winning streak.  Over those seven games, Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded points in the last six, going 1-6-7, plus-8, perhaps his best sustained stretch of production for the season.  However, he was shutout in the loss to the Rangers, and the aim when the Devils came calling after a four-day layoff for the Caps was to get back on track.  The Devils drew first blood in the second minute of the first period, but the Caps tied it less than two minutes later on a Dmitry Orlov goal.  New Jersey regained the lead early in the second period, but Alex Ovechkin tied the game once more less than a minute later.  After that, it was Kuznetsov’s show. 

Midway through the second period, Kuznetsov broke the tie using patience and skill.  The scoring sequence started when Alex Ovechkin took a pass from Brenden Dillon at the Devils’ blue line and skated down the right wing.  From the top of the circle he unleased a shot that handcuffed goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, the puck popping into the air. Kuznetsov collected the puck between the hash marks, but instead of shooting right away with a clot of players in front, he curled to his left to find a shooting angle and from a severe angle just outside the extended goal line to Blackwood’s right, he snapped a shot behind Blackwood’s back and in to make it a 3-2 game.  New Jersey tied the game for a third time mid-way through the final period, but just 62 seconds after the game-tying goal, Kuznetsov struck again.  It was a goal in the blink of an eye that illustrated his hand-eye skills.  With the Devils unable to clear the defensive zone, Justin Schultz took the puck along the right wing wall and threw the puck into the slot where Kuznetsov was waiting.  Kuznetsov just adjusted angle on the stick blade and redirected the puck toward the net where it struck the skate of a Devils defender and eluded Blackwood on the far side.  It would be the game-winning goal and seal Kuznetsov’s only two-goal game of the season.

Game to Forget… April 18, 2021 vs. Boston.  Although Evgeny Kuznetsov did receive votes in two seasons of his career for the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward, he is not generally known as a defensive stalwart.  But he had an especially difficult time in a mid-April game in Boston against the Bruins, at least in getting up close and personal looks at Bruin goals.  One might have predicted a difficult game when he was on the ice as Patrice Bergeron scored a shorthanded goal 12 minutes into the contest to open the scoring.  He got a close look at that one as Bergeron cut in front of him to grab a loose puck in the slot that he backhanded in as Kuznetsov tried to use his stick to corral Bergeron’s hands. 

The Caps eventually made a game of it, taking a 3-2 lead before five minutes were gone in the second period, Kuznetsov assisting on one of the goals.  But Boston scored the last four goals – Kuznetsov being on ice for three of them (including an empty netter in the last two minutes) – in what would be a 6-3 loss to the Bruins.  Kuznetsov finished 0-1-1, with one shot on goal in 17 minutes and change of ice time and a 21.4 percent faceoff winning percentage (3-for-14, his worst of the season) and recorded a season-worst minus-4 for his effort.

Postseason… Kuznetsov as enigma extends to his postseason performance.  He ranks 11^th in franchise history in games played (81), but he ranks fourth in goals (27), ninth in assists (35), fifth in points (62), tied for 17^th in plus-minus rating (plus-5), 11^th in points per game (0.77; minimum: 25 games), tied for ninth in power play goals (nine), tied for fifth in power play points (24), and tied for eighth in game-winning goals (four).  But his 2021 postseason was a disaster.  First, he appeared in only the last three of the five games in the Caps’ opening round loss to Boston, owing to his being sidelined with COVID for a second time this season (he also missed the last five games of the regular season).  Second, he did not record a goal despite eight shots on goal in those three games.  Third, he was held without a point despite averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time in the three games in which he played.  In his last 16 postseason games dating back to Game 3 of the 2019 Eastern Conference quarterfinal against Carolina, Kuznetsov is 4-4-9, minus-7, in 16 postseason games.

Looking ahead… All eyes seem to be on Kuznetsov and all attention being paid to the question of whether his future lies with another team.  He has four more years on an eight-year/$62.4 million contract that carries a $7.8 million cap hit.  He is a member of an odd cohort as far as compensation goes.  There are seven centers, age 27-32 (Kuznetsov is 29) with cap hits ranging from $7.0 million to $8.5 million.  It is a group that includes the oft-injured (Steven Stamkos) and the disappointing (Ryan Johansen, Kevin Hayes, and perhaps Kuznetsov).  The problem here is that since a 2017-2018 season in which he went 27-56-83 in the regular season and 12-19-31 in 24 playoff games on the way to the Stanley Cup, he is 49-104-153 in the regular season and 4-7-11 in 18 playoff games.  He has bounced around of the margins of “good,” but has more rarely displayed the high-end production his skill set and potential suggest.  On paper, he is a first line center on a contending team, but he has not played to that level, and these should be his prime years.

In the end…

Can Evgeny Kuznetsov reignite the flame he seemed to have in 2017-2018 when he had his best NHL season and, not coincidentally, the Caps won their only Stanley Cup in team history?  One would like to think so, but three disappointing seasons removed from that season makes one wonder whether it is likely.  And a $7.8 million salary cap hit is a big bet on his being able to do that.  It puts the Caps in a difficult situation.  If he had not been disappointing the last three seasons, there would be no murmuring about whether to cut ties with him.  But if the Caps are entertaining offers for him, Capitals Nation had better be prepared that it is unlikely in the extreme that they will get equal value in terms of his potential as a player.  Is this a “he is what he is” moment, or is there one more chance left to play closer to his potential as a Capital?  Much of the summer for the Caps might be devoted to this question concerning the enigma that is Kuznetsov.

Grade: C