The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their
four-game road trip with a Saturday matinee at Wells Fargo Center, where they
will wrap up the road portion of their season series against the Philadelphia
Flyers. The Caps will look to sweep the
Flyers on their own rink, having bested the Flyers, 5-3, in their other visit,
on February 17th. Despite
their uninspired 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers on Thursday night, the Caps
can wrap up a successful road trip with a win in Philadelphia and a 3-1 record
on the trip.
Meanwhile, the sinking like a stone
Flyers will labor under a six-game losing streak and a 2-14-5 record over their
last 21 games when they take the ice to host the Caps (0-4-2). The most disappointing part of that record is
the Flyers’ inability to win on home ice (2-7-3). Their .292 points percentage on home ice over
this stretch is tied for third-worst in the league (we will point out that the
Caps’ home winning percentage over this same period is worst in the league
(.250/2-7-1).
The Flyers have not had much
success from their expected players as far as goal scoring is concerned on home
ice over this stretch. In 12 games at
Wells Fargo Center since December 30th, their leading goal scorers
are Oskar Lindblom and Gerry Mayhew with five apiece. Lindblom is one of the feel-good stories for a
team desperately in search of one. A
fifth-round (138th overall) pick in the 2014 Entry Draft, Lindblom
showed steady improvement once he cracked the Flyer lineup in 2017-2018. He went 2-4-6, plus-4 in 23 games in his first
season in Philadelphia and followed that up with a 17-16-33, minus-9, scoring
line in his sophomore season.
He was in the midst of a breakout
season in 2019-2020, going 11-7-18, plus-4, in 30 games when he was diagnosed
on December 13, 2019, with Ewing’s sarcoma, ending his season. After almost seven months of treatment, the
Flyers showed faith in his ability to return to action, signing him to a
three-year/$9 million contract less than three weeks after his last
chemotherapy treatment. Lindblom
returned to action on January 13, 2021, scoring a goal in his first game back. He finished the 2020-2021 season 8-6-14,
minus-9, an excellent result for a player recovering from cancer. His determination in his comeback resulted in
his winning the 2021 Masterton Trophy for exhibiting qualities of perseverance
and sportsmanship. Lindblom is 8-11-19,
minus-2, in 50 games so far this season and brings a 1-4-5, minus-8 scoring
line in 16 career games against the Caps.
Gerry Mayhew does not have the same
history as Lindblom, save in one respect – perseverance. An undrafted player after four years with
Ferris State University, he signed a try-out contract with the Iowa Wild of the
AHL in March 2017. He graduated to the
Minnesota Wild in May 2019 but dressed for only 17 games over two seasons with
the parent club before departing as a free agent. He was signed by the Flyers in July 2021, but
he did not crack the Flyer lineup until December 29th. After going without a point over his first
six games as a Flyer, he is 6-0-6, even, in his last 11 games with the
club. His scorer’s touch should not be
all that surprising, despite his lack of draft pedigree. In four years at Ferris State, Mayhew scored 52
goals in 150 games. Over five seasons
with the Iowa Wild, he posted 97 goals in 228 games, including 39 goals in 49
games in 2019-2020. At age 29, finally
getting a shot at regular NHL play, Mayhew is a study in perseverance and determination. In two career games against the Caps, he has
a pair of goals and has a plus-2 rating.
The Flyers’ defense has been, in a
word, awful. Ten defensemen have dressed
for the team this season, and seven have a negative 5-on-5 on ice goal differential. Only two have positive goal differentials at
fives – Ryan Ellis, with a plus-2 in only four games, and Travis Sanheim, who
is plus-2 in 49 games. Although a modest
plus number, it is quite an improvement over his minus-21 in 51 games last
season, tied for fourth-worst among 214 defensemen dressing for at least 20
games. Since his arrival in Philadelphia
in 2017-2018, he ranks third in goals scored by defensemen (26), third in
assists (78), and is one of three defensemen to post at least 100 points (104)
with the club. His three overtime goals
is tied for most among defensemen over that period, his 84 takeaways rank
first, and his 391 blocked shots rank second.
On the other hand, his minus-24 is second worst among 24 defensemen to
dress over that period, his 223 giveaways rank second worst, and his 115
penalty minutes rank fourth in that group.
And, his ice time reflects poorly on results. In 20 games in which Sanheim skated at least
23 minutes, the Flyers are 4-8-8. But it
is still better than instances in which he has lighter ice time burdens. In 13 games in which Sanheim skated fewer
than 20 minutes, the Flyers are 1-11-1.
His offense has largely dried up over the last two-plus months. He carries a 26-game streak without a goal
(0-5-5) into Saturday’s game after going 4-10-14, plus-3, in his first 23 games
of the season. Sanheim is 1-3-4,
minus-11 (worst plus-minus against any team he has faced), in 18 career games
against Washington.
1. The Flyers’ 2-14-5
since December 30th is worst in the league over that span, the only
team over that period failing to amass at least ten standings points (nine).
2. It is no wonder
that the Flyers record since December 30th is worst in the league. They rank 30th or worse in scoring
offense (2.33 goals per game/31st), scoring defense (3.90 goals
allowed per game/30h), power play (11.1 percent/31st), and penalty
kill (67.9 percent/32nd).
3. No team has
yielded the first goal in more games than the Flyers since their slump began on
December 30th (16 times, tied with Edmonton and Seattle); their
record in those games is 1-13-2, fifth-worst in the league.
4. Only Seattle has
fewer goals on home ice (four) since December 30th than the Flyers
(five) during their 2-7-3 slide at home over that period. The 13 third period goals they scored over
the period is almost equal to the total they scored in the first 40 minutes of
games (14), but even with that third period goal total, they have a minus-9
goal differential in third periods of games during that span.
5. Only once in the
12 home games in this slump did the Flyers carry a lead into the third
period. They won, but not until after allowing
the Los Angeles Kings to tie the game in the third period before winning, 4-3,
in overtime on January 29th.
1. In each of their last
five losses, the Caps allowed four or more goals; only once this season have
the Caps allowed more than three goals in a game and won, a 7-5 decision in
Ottawa against the Senators on October 25th. In 17 games in which they allowed four or
more goals (not counting Gimmick decisions), the Caps are 1-12-4.
2. In 26 road games
this season, the Caps have allowed first period goals in just 11 of them and
only twice allowed two goals (November 4th at Florida in a 5-4
overtime loss and February 1st against Pittsburgh in a 4-3 overtime
win).
3. In those same 26
road games, the Caps scored at least one first period goal in 17 of them, eight
times scoring two or more with a high of four in the first period of a 7-5 win
in Ottawa against the Senators on October 25th.
4. Does a winning faceoff
percentage mean anything? In a limited
sample of road games, not for the Caps.
They are 3-3-2 in the eight road games in which they finished over 50
percent on faceoffs.
5. No team has scored
first in more road games than the Caps, who have done so 20 times in 26 road
games. They are 13-5-2 in those games,
their .650 winning percentage ranking 15th.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Philadelphia: Kevin Hayes
It is not often we feature a player in this space who will
not play, but the story of Kevin Hayes is one of frustration that parallels
that of the Flyers over this season. He
came to the Flyers in a trade with the Winnipeg Jets in June 2019. In his first two seasons with the club, he
went 35-37-72, minus-8, in 124 games – second in games played for the Flyers,
fourth in goals scored, sixth in points, tied for fourth in power play goals
scored (seven), first in overtime goals scored (here), and third among all
forwards in average ice time (17:38 per game).
But last year, Hayes played with a nagging sports hernia injury for
which he had surgery after the season.
He missed the first dozen games of this season before
returning to the Flyers’ lineup on November 13th. He lasted just 20 games, though, injuring an
adductor muscle that has kept him out of the lineup since his last appearance
on January 17th. In those 20
games in which Hayes played, the Flyers went 6-11-3, slightly lower on a points
percentage basis (.375) than the 9-15-7/.403 Philadelphia has in his
absence. Hayes, a reliable two-way
forward who scored at least a dozen goals and posted at least 30 points in each
of his seven seasons before this one, is an indicator of the depth of the Flyers’
problems, a team that has a record with or without him in the lineup that is
very similar – poor. Nevertheless, they
are likely to miss his 7-12-19, even, career scoring line in 32 games against the
Caps.
Washington: Garnet Hathaway
Garnet Hathaway continues to march along toward a career year
in his seven years in the NHL. In 48
games he played to date, he has ten goals, one off the 11 he recorded for
Calgary in 76 games in 2018-2019. All of
those ten goals were scored at even strength, setting a new career high. His nine assists are within three of his
career high of 12 set last season with the Caps in 56 games. He has already tied a career high in points
(19) that he set with the Flames in 2018-2019.
His plus-15 rating is a career best.
His 13:54 in ice time per game is a career high. He has three game-winning goals in 48 games,
just two off the five he had in 76 games in 2018-2019. His 91 shots on goal are already a career
best. His two empty net goals are a
career high, as are his three empty net points.
His 0.82 goals per 60 minutes is one one-hundredth of a goal short of
the 0.83 goals per 60 minutes he posted with Calgary in 2018-2019.
And, he has done this playing for the most part within the
rules. Despite his being a player who is
unafraid of mixing things up and stirring the pot, his 1.44 penalties taken per
60 minutes is a career low. This season,
his contributions matter, as one might expect when a fourth liner produces in
the offensive end of the rink. The Caps are
5-1-1 in games in which he had a goal, 8-3-2 in the 13 games in which he had points. The Caps are 8-1-3 in the 12 games in which
he skated at least 15 minutes. They are
10-2-2 when he posted at least three shots on goal. Hathaway is 3-5-8, plus-4, in 19 career games
against Philadelphia.
In the end…
The Caps, struggling as they are, are not in the same class
of despair as the Flyers, who have one win in regulation time since December 16th,
a span of 24 games (4-14-6 overall).
Every game is a test of one form or another, and for the Caps it is a
test to see if a team, struggling but getting healthier, can overwhelm a team
playing out the string on their own ice.
Good teams do such things. After
the disappointing effort against the Rangers on Thursday, the Caps have something
to prove in this regard. It would not
necessarily make them a “good” team at the moment, but it would make them
better than what they displayed in New York, or what they have displayed over
the last two months, for the most part.
Capitals 4 – Flyers 1