Better Now Than Then, Getting from There to Here

On October 8th, the Caps dressed a 20-man squad for the season opener that featured a pair of defensemen, a center, and a pair of goaltenders, none of whom had reached their 23rd birthday. A quarter of a team’s complement that dressed for opening night had a combined total of 127 games of NHL regular season experience. You might think this the sort of thing an expansion team, or a team that had low expectations would try, not a Stanley Cup contender.

But that is precisely what the Washington Capitals did on opening night last October. They dressed John Carlson and Karl Alzner on defense (22 and 51 games of experience, respectively), Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov (22 and 32 games, respectively), and Marcus Johansson (appearing in his first game in North America).

But in this quintet of players you can see the Capitals personnel management plan in stark relief. Carlson and Alzner were the go-to defensive pair for the Hershey Bears in their Calder Cup-winning effort the previousspring, and both got a taste of playing time in the first round playoff series the Caps played against Montreal. Neuvirth was the goaltender on that Calder Cup winner, and in fact backstopped the Bears to two consecutive Calders, winning a most valuable player award in the first of them. Varlamov’s lack of experience might have been a product of injury as much as circumstance, his already having been called upon in two NHL post-seasons to provide a spark at the position. Johansson had represented Sweden in two world junior championships, serving as captain in his second tour.

These were players with scant NHL experience but with enough schooling to assume a role with the big club – a contending club – on opening night, even if it meant there would be a crowd of such players. But here is the important part. Even if you might have been inclined to believe (and it would have been a reasonable conclusion) that a contending club was not the place for five such players of limited experience, including both goaltenders, to play at once, the object of the exercise was not “opening night.” It was here, now, in the spring as the Caps prepare for the second round of the Stanley Cup tournament.

Players with this kind of preparation could be, and should be expected to be much better after Game 82 of the regular season than after Game 1. In fact, none of them had an especially good night in a 4-2 loss to the Thrashers in Game 1. Carlson played 18 minutes and took a late penalty that snuffed out any dim hopes the Caps might have had to comeback from a two-goal deficit. Alzner played 14 minutes and was a minus-1, on ice for the Thrashers insurance goal with five minutes left. Johansson played 13 minutes, did not record a shot on goal, and lost seven of eight faceoffs. Neuvirth allowed four goals on 27 shots, and Varlamov was the backup goaltender for the evening. Not an especially auspicious start for the quintet.

You got a better picture of what was to come in the Caps second game, their home opener. Alzner played 14 minutes, had two blocked shots and a takeaway in addition to a couple of shots on goal. Carlson had a goal that would become something of a mini-legend and a couple of assists. Johansson logged almost 15 minutes and won seven of 11 draws while getting a couple of pucks on net. Neuvirth stopped 31 of 33 shots, including the last 27 he faced in a 7-2 win over the New Jersey Devils.

But again, the object of the exercise in giving these players ice time was not October, it was now. And that is a matter of getting from “there” to “here.” In Johansson’s first ten games he averaged only 12:51 of ice time, a product of Tomas Fleischmann getting his chance to fill the second line center role and pushing Johansson down the ladder. He recorded only one point – a goal – in those first ten games and was a minus-5. In his last ten games, though, he was 2-1-3, plus-3, and perhaps most important was averaging 16:28 in ice time, doing time on any of the top three lines and centering a variety of wingers from Alex Ovechkin or Alexander Semin to Jason Chimera or Eric Fehr. Although he still needs work in being able to compete in the corners and on his faceoffs, he has become one of the most versatile forwards on the team and his speed and skating ability fits in nicely with the talent mix the Caps employ.

Carlson and Alzner, “Carlzner” to Caps fans, have become as reliable a pair of defensemen as the Caps have. Each played in all 82 games for the Caps this season, and unlike Johansson, who had to orient himself to the NHL game, this pair hit the ground running. Carlson was 1-5-6, plus-3 in his first ten games, but it was an un-rookie like moment that might have announced him as a player who wasn’t going to serve much of a rookie apprenticeship. That came in the home opener, after he had already notched a goal and two assists in the game. With 4:07 to go in the contest, and three fights having been fought in the previous ten seconds of game time, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond jumped Marcus Johansson after a faceoff. Fighting not being much of Johansson’s game, and it being almost all of Letourneau-Leblond’s, it was a mismatch. It was Carlson jumping in first in defense of his teammate for which he earned a roughing minor and a game misconduct – the Carlson Hat Trick…goal, assist, misconduct. It wouldn’t end there. Carlson was arguably the top defenseman in his rookie class this season.

Alzner isn’t quite as flashy as Carlson, and his marks early – no points in his first ten games, even – suggest a lackluster start. But that’s really the point in Alzner’s game. Not so much “luster” (and the risk one bears in trying for the numbers that accompany it) as it is steady play, as reflected in his 16:42 of average ice time. And steady? Well, there is this…in those first ten games Alzner was 0-0-0, even, with six shots on goal in 16:42 of average ice time. In his last ten games he was 0-0-0, even, with six shots on goal in 23:15 of average ice time. He was an accomplished defenseman at the dawn of the season, but one the Caps leaned on – with Carlson – by year’s end.

Neuvirth and Varlamov came into the season as partners and competitors fighting to answer the question of who would be the Caps number one goaltender and having to answer doubts about either’s ability to assume that responsibility. For Varlamov, it wasn’t a matter of talent, but of durability. He was already a veteran of 19 playoff games over two seasons, but in those two season played only 32 games in the regular season. He managed only 27 appearances this season, not getting his first until he jumped into the crease in relief of a flu-bitten Michal Neuvirth in a 3-1 loss to Boston on October 19th. He played in one more game (a loss), then would not appear again until November 24th, when he recorded his first win of the season. If anything, this was Varlamov’s year of adversity. In addition to the injuries (four separate occurrences, referred to as: “undisclosed,” “groin,” “lower-body,” and ”knee”), he was not well rewarded for his performance when he was in the lineup. Despite his posting a 2.23 goals against average and .924 save percentage (both bests in his abbreviated three-year career), he was streaky in the win-loss department. Four straight wins in late November and early December were followed by four straight losses… then five straight in which he was 4-0-1… five straight losses… closing the season by alternating wins and losses with a Gimmick loss thrown in for good measure. The talent was clearly there, but the results were lacking.

Results have not been Michal Neuvirth’s problem. He came into the season fresh off consecutive Calder Cup championships with Hershey, but the question here was whether that could translate into NHL success for a goalie who had a grand total of 22 games of NHL experience with unexceptional numbers (2.80, .910). He was thrown into the fire early with Varlamov on the shelf. But he was arguably the Caps most valuable player to start the season. In his first 17 appearances he was 12-3-0, 2.56, .912, and one shutout. Not bad for a team that had yet to find its defensive theme. Neuvirth was even slightly better late – 11-4-0 in his last 16 appearances, with a 2.43 GAA, a .916 save percentage, and two shutouts. He finished third among all rookie goaltenders in wins (the two goalies in front of him playing in substantially more games), third in goals against average and tied for the lead in shutouts.

More than a few observers wondered whether giving a couple of kid defensemen so much ice time or putting the fate of the season in the hands of a couple of youngsters who represented “legitimately below average” goaltending or giving a center who had zero minutes of experience in a hockey rink in North America valuable minutes was such a bright idea. But this season did not start for the Caps with October in mind. With eyes focused on the spring and (hopefully) early summer, inserting five such young players into the lineup was not quite as bad as putting five functional “rookies” out there. These five players were prepared as best a team can prepare prospects to contribute early and be critical elements late in the season. This is what one hopes happens when a club has a developmental “system” that can prepare a John Carlson, a Karl Alzner, or a Michal Neuvirth in a winning atmosphere before they take the ice for good in a red jersey. It speaks to the ability to identify not only talent, as in the case of a Semyon Varlamov or a Marcus Johansson, but the ability to recognize the ability to play in big games under pressure –Varlamov expressing that in his ability to perform well in relief in two playoffs with the Caps and Johansson as part of Team Sweden in two world junior championships and two seasons with Färjestads BK in the Swedish Elite League.

For some, those who might not have been watching closely what the Caps have been doing over the last several years, putting these five players into positions of considerable responsibility to start the season might not have looked to them like a great idea at the time.

But it certainly looks like a fine idea now.

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Trips to the Bakery

Think going to the net is not its own reward?  Here (courtesy of the Washington Post) is a graphic of where the goals came from in the series.  The furthest Caps goal came from 36 feet, the overtime goal by Alexander Semin off a Jason Arnott feed in Game 1.  Only one other of the 13 total goals the Caps scored came from outside 20 feet.

(click the pic for a larger view)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 5: Capitals 3 - Rangers 1

Consider the door slammed.

The Washington Capitals slammed the door early on any chance for the New York Rangers to establish momentum and closed out their opening round series with a 3-1 win at Verizon Center, winning the series four games to one.

The Caps imposed their will early when Marcus Johansson drew a tripping penalty on Ranger defenseman Bryan McCabe at 5:42 of the first period. Less than 20 seconds later it was a case of the Capitals doing what they needed to do – going to the net. Although the faceoff after the penalty call was won by the Rangers, the Rangers could not move the puck out of the zone. Alexander Semin, of all people, threw a hit on Brandon Dubinsky that kept the Rangers from getting control, the puck sliding out to Alex Ovechkin at the left point. Ovechkin moved the puck to Mike Green, who fired from the right point. The puck pinballed around in front of goalie Henrik Lundqvist and came back out to Ovechkin. The Caps forward faked a slap shot and slid the puck to Green creeping down the weak side. Green fired, but Lundqvist got across in time to stop the first drive. The rebound was lost in the maze of red and white jerseys in front of Lundqvist, giving Green enough of an opening to jump in and push the puck through Lundqvist for the score, the first goal scored in the first period in this series.

The score held up until the 7:04 mark in the second when Jeff Schultz and Nicklas Backstrom double-teamed Dubinsky in the corner in the Capitals’ end of the ice. Backstrom eventually came out with the puck, easing it up to Brooks Laich, who backhanded it up to Scott Hannan. The Caps defenseman spotted Alex Ovechkin streaking down the right side. Hannan’s pass found Ovechkin in stride at the red line, and Marc Staal was the only defender back for the Blueshirts. Ovechkin took the puck wide on the right side, lowered his shoulder, and curled to the crease. He showed Lundqvist a forehand as Staal was desperately trying to tie him up, but Ovechkin had position and leverage on Staal, enough to be able to pull the puck to his backhand and stuff it just inside the far post to give the Caps a 2-0 lead.

Whatever dim chance the Rangers had to get themselves back into the game in the third period was snuffed out when Jeff Schultz worked the puck back around the Caps net past Ranger Wojtek Wolski to Scott Hannan. Hannan moved the puck up the left side to Marco Sturm, who one-handed it out of the zone. Marcus Johansson collected the puck and started up ice with the Rangers caught on a 2-on-1 disadvantage. Johansson held the puck until he was at the top of the left wing circle. Then he chipped a saucer pass past the lone defender – Marc Staal, who was at the end of a long shift (57 seconds) – to Alexander Semin coming down the right side. As the puck landed, Semin’s blade found it, lifting the puck through Lundqvist to give the Caps some added insurance.

Wojtek Wolski spoiled the shutout, banging home a rebound past goalie Michal Neuvirth with 31.5 seconds left for the final score, but it was merely window dressing on a day where the Caps dominated and slammed the door on the Rangers.

Other stuff…

-- Folks will ooh and ahh about the Ovechkin goal, and well they should. But it also should be noted that Marc Staal was gassed, skating what would end up being a 1:06 shift that ended in that goal.

-- As the series went on, the Rangers found themselves less and less able to contend with the Caps’ speed. Marcus Johansson – and hasn’t he come a long way this season – was especially adept at using his speed to created time and space to make plays, and it worked one more time yesterday by backing off Staal to give him the opportunity to find Semin for the third goal.

-- The two points for Ovechkin lifted him into a tie for fifth in points in the post season. Curious thing…of the top eight scorers on the NHL.com listings, none are in “plus” territory.

-- Two defensemen who gave their all. Mike Green gets the Caps off and running by being persistent in following up a shot, then taking one off the noggin at 13:49 of the first period that sent him to the dressing room for some quiet time. He made it back to the bench in the third period and might have played, had he been needed. Fortunately, he wasn’t. And on the other side, Dan Girardi, who took a shot off his hand that dislocated a finger above the knuckle, and he took another shot off his ankle that would require X-rays after the game. He also was cut by teammate Chris Drury’s stick after a scrum following Green’s goal that required stitches. John Tortorella said of him later, "No one talked about him and he was our best defenseman the whole series.” Amen to that.

-- Someone should have given Brooks Laich a pre-game meal, that is, if you are listening to Sean Avery. The Rangers’ pest said Laich bit him in the second period.

-- The Caps were not going to go quietly. They sent 36 shot attempts at Henrik Lundqvist in the first period. Thirteen on goal, 13 blocked, and ten misses. Think about that…36 shot attempt in 20 minutes…a shot attempt every 33 seconds. Mr. Corsi and Mr. Fenwick had to be smiling.

-- Marian Gaborik gets the Semin Award for futility in this series (named for the Capital who went 0-for-44 in shots in last year’s playoffs). Gaborik went 1-for-20 in shooting in this series, including 0-for-5 yesterday.

-- Then again, maybe it goes to Brian Boyle. He led the Rangers in shots on goal with 25 (and was arguably their most dangerous offensive player in this series) and failed to convert any of them.

-- The Young Guns put together their games yesterday…Ovechkin with a goal, an assist, plus-1, four shots, ten shot attempts, and three hits…Mike Green with the first goal, a hit, and a blocked shot in 5:36 before getting hurt… Alexander Semin with the cherry on the sundae late and three hits. But while Nicklas Backstrom did not have a point, he might have had his best game of the series. Two blocked shots, seven wins in 13 draws, and he was a maestro in moving the puck short distances under pressure to an open teammate to get the puck out of trouble.

-- In fact, short passes were the key to the day. The Caps were clicking on those little 8-10 foot passes in their own end to foil the Ranger forecheck and get the puck to a teammate with more time and space to move the puck up and out of the Caps’ zone.

-- Brooks Laich had a quietly productive series with four assists in five games and 55.1 percent wins in the circle.

-- Jason… open net, buddy. What happened? We’re going to call it “bad ice.”

-- Boyd Gordon didn’t have a point in this series, but he was big when and where it mattered… an incredible 69.1 percent wins on faceoffs, and he was on the ice for a grand total of one Ranger goal (his not being on the ice for any Caps goals is why he is a minus-1).

-- 207… the number of blocked shots the two teams combined for in this series, the Caps with 104, the Rangers with 103. They are one-two in the league rankings.

-- 392 … the combined number of hits by the two teams in this series, the Rangers with 211, the Caps with 181. They rank one-three in the league.

-- A key in this series… the Rangers were impotent at five-on-five. Six goals in five games (second fewest, with only Phoenix – in one less game – scoring fewer).

-- But what killed the Rangers was the Caps penalty killing. Yes, the Rangers were 1-for-20 on the power play, but what was key here was that the Rangers had only 22 shots on goal on the power play for the series (Michal Neuvirth stopping 21 of them), even though they did have five sots on two man-advantages yesterday. The penalty killers denied the Rangers scoring opportunities, and Neuvirth did the rest… just like you draw it up.

-- What do Marco Sturm, Jeff Schultz, and Alexander Semin have in common? None were on the ice for any goals against in this series.

-- Of the 13 goals the Caps scored in the series, Mike Green was on the ice for seven of them (seven of 11, if you count the time he was actually available, two of the goals yesterday coming after he was injured). Alexander Semin was on the ice for six of them.

-- Give Chris Drury credit. He probably came back too early from his knee injury. If his time on ice and faceoffs are considered, it was probably the only reason he was out there. In 6:49 of ice time yesterday, he took 12 draws. In 53 minutes and change of total ice time in the series he took 70 faceoffs (and won 44 of them for a 62.9 percent winning percentage). Seventy faceoffs on 101 shifts. He deserves credit for doing what he was able to do.

-- And no Ranger deserves more credit than Henrik Lundqvist. One cannot help watching him and thinking of the Caps’ Olaf Kolzig, a goaltender on whose shoulders his team’s fortunes often rested, but not quite able to do just about everything by himself. Lundqvist was the Rangers’ hope in this series, and while he played well, he was not perfect (or even “Neuvirthian”). The Rangers will be better – they have a decent core of young players – but one wonders if Lundqvist will be. He is in his prime, but he keeps coming up short in the playoffs (15-20 career record). His teams just don’t seem to have enough punch to give him relief. In that respect he is very much like Kolzig, although the two were/are very different goaltenders in style. Lundqvist seems, like Kolzig, to be a class act who takes losing every bit as hard as did the former Caps netminder. Even if he wears Ranger colors, he is the kind of player you root for. You get the feeling he deserves better than he has gotten in terms of support and wonder if he ever will get it in his future.

In the end, the Rangers just did not have the horsepower to compete with the Caps. It wasn’t just talent, which Coach John Tortorella acknowledged wasn’t “there yet” in comparison to the Caps. The Caps beat the Rangers as much with speed as with talent. The Rangers just could not counter the Caps’ advantage in speed with their own ability to forecheck and control pucks below the opponent’s goal line. The Caps used equal parts deft passing and leg speed (watching the Rangers trying to contend with Jason Chimera and Marcus Johansson was almost painful to watch) to break the Rangers’ ability to control the offensive zone.

And now it just gets harder. The Rangers posed problems for the Capitals in terms of their work ethic and ability to pin teams in their own end. But the Caps solved those problems by matching the Rangers’ compete level and using their superior talent to move pucks out of danger. But one problem the Rangers did not pose was offering much by way of explosive offense, especially with the cold streak that plagued Marian Gaborik. The teams the Caps could face in round two – Montreal, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, or Tampa Bay – could pose greater challenges for the defense. But the Caps have passed their first quarter test in this tournament, and given the team’s history is no small feat, especially in the quick fashion it was done. So good on them, and rest up. Let the other guys play six and seven game series. You’ve got four under your belt.

Just take ‘em one at a time… 12 more times.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Capitals vs. Rangers, Game 5

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to Washington this afternoon in a 3:00 tilt against the New York Rangers. It’s Game 5 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinal and a chance for the Caps to slam the door on the Ran…

“You know, you need to be careful about slamming doors.”

Beg your pardon?

“Doors…some doors are for slamming. Others aren’t.”

Didn’t know there were rules about such things.

“Well, that’s where I come in…’Lochan Key’ is the name, and my specialty is doors.”

Doors? With that name shouldn’t you be…

“Yeah, I know. Making keys. Like I haven’t heard that before.”

So, about doors. There are better doors than others for slamming?

“Oh, sure. You wouldn’t want to slam French doors. You’d be spending the rest of the day cleaning up broken glass.”

Good point.

“Now a good solid wood entry door, that’s good slammin’ right there.”

How so?

“Good weight, a nice solid ‘thwack’ when you slam it…can’t go wrong with a good solid wood door for slamming.”

Wouldn’t steel do as well?

“Nah…don’t have the same kind of ‘thud’ as a wood door.”

Is there any kind of door you absolutely do not recommend?

“Pet doors…well, unless you have an Avery running around loose.”

Well, the Caps will be looking to slam the door on Avery and the rest of the Rangers this afternoon as they take a three-games-to-one lead into Game 5. Washington will come into this game with the best defense in the post-season, allowing 1.75 goals per game. It is quite an improvement over last year’s goals allowed-per-game of 2.86 in the opening round loss to Montreal.

Another thing that the Caps have improved upon is their 5-on-5 play, where the Caps’ ratio of 1.60 is a significant improvement over the 1.31 in last year’s opening round series.

Power play? Same thing, but it would be hard not to improve on a 1-for-33 mark. The improvement has not been very impressive, however, if you are interested in effectiveness (volume) as opposed to efficiency (production). The Caps have only two power play goals in this series so far in four games. One might like that they have come on 12 opportunities (16.7 percent), but 12 opportunities?  Only Boston has as few total chances on the power play, and only Vancouver has fewer opportunities on a per-game basis.

The Caps have made up for it on the penalty kill, where they have allowed but a single goal in 18 total shorthanded situations. The 94.4 percent kill rate is quite an improvement over the 80.0 percent (24-for-30) in last year’s first round. But the minus-6 in the comparison of Ranger to Capitals power play opportunities has to be of some concern, not to mention the fact that the Caps have spent almost 11 more minutes killing penalties than have the Rangers (second worst in that statistic among the 16 playoff teams).

Something the Caps have not been able to do so far is to draw penalties as the game goes on. The Caps have put the Rangers shorthanded seven times in four games thus far, but only a total of five times in the second and third periods, and overtime. Meanwhile, the Caps have been shorthanded 12 times in periods two and three, and in overtime. Balancing those numbers and putting that kind of pressure on the Rangers late will be something to watch for this afternoon.

If anything can be said to be the theme of this series it might be “Hollywood Squares,” as in, “I’ll take the Capitals…or the Rangers to block.” The Caps and Rangers rank second and fourth among all playoff teams in blocked shots, and the combined 168 the teams have is miles ahead of the next series (the Buffalo/Philadelphia and Los Angeles/San Jose series each have 146).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Marian Gaborik

It was Marian Gaborik, doing the right thing the wrong way, who chipped the puck out from under Henrik Lundqvist’s attempt to cover it that led to the overtime game-winning goal by Jason Chimera in Game 4. Gaborik has not been much heard from in this series in the way he is paid to be heard from – he has one goal on 15 shots thus far. And now he is wearing goat-horns of a sort for the defensive play he tried and failed to execute. Gaborik isn’t paid to be a back-checker, although at this stage of the season everyone needs to contribute in that way. If he does, fine. But if he doesn’t ramp up his offense soon, it will be very late for the Rangers. Late as in, “good night.”

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Alex Ovechkin gets the press, good and bad, but the curiosity for the Caps in this series is not so much Ovechkin’s two goals and two assists as it is Backstrom’s grand total of one point (an assist) in four games. Boyd Gordon has as many shots on goal, and Karl Alzner has as many points. Those two are paid to be primarily the sort of player who prevents scoring. Backstrom, while a sturdy two-way sort, has to produce more on offense. If he does this afternoon, Caps fans will be going home happy.


Keys:


1. Pucks to the net. The Caps did a better job of this in Game 4 (53 shots on goal, “only” 28 others blocked), and they were rewarded with a four-goal result, even if it took almost five periods to do it. Alexander Semin has been especially adept, with 18 shots in four games. But Backstrom (nine shots) and Brooks Laich (ten), who could be assuming the “Mike Knuble” role today, will be players to watch for in terms of putting shot pressure on Henrik Lundqvist.

2. Balance in the box. The Caps have marched to the penalty box enough for 14 shorthanded situations in the last two games; the Rangers only seven. If the Caps can balance that ledger, perhaps they can establish more offensive rhythm than they have been able to generate in the last two games.

3. Seventh Man. After a night of “can you hear us?” the Verizon Center crowd has a chance to one-up the Madison Square Garden throng with a “you can’t top this” noise level that the Caps might find the tonic to push them over the top and into the next round.

In the end, this is where it comes to an end for the Rangers. All their bullets are gone. Coach John Tortorella has tried to tweak lines, tried inserting Sean Avery into the lineup for some more “energy” (no points, minus-2, two penalty minutes in three games), and Henrik Lundqvist, while often spectacular in goal so far (2.08, .922) can’t do it all by himself game after game. The Caps have not played especially well in four games, and credit the Rangers with having something to do with that with their never-say-die, 200-foot work ethic. But at some point, it’s talent that takes you to the next level, and the Rangers do not match the Caps in that area.

Slam the door! Now!!

Caps 4 – Rangers 2

Two Rookies, One Oppo"net"

Michal Neuvirth has had a pretty decent series against the Rangers so far, and no doubt it is triggering in the minds of Caps fans the question, "which goalie do the Caps hitch their wagon to for the future?"  Yeah, it's much too early in this series for reasonable people to be having such conversations, but this being Washington, a city that seems at times to have invented the term "controversy," you know it's on Caps fans' minds. 

But let's step back a moment and think about these two fine young goalies, Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov.  Each has tremendous promise, albeit refelcted in very different goaltending styles.  And neither has an extensive body of work just yet.  But they do have a common opponent played in similar (which not to say the same) circumstances. 

Both Neuvirth, in this series, and Varlamov, two seasons ago, faced the New York Rangers in the opening round of the playoffs.  And it seems both have taken a liking to playing the Blueshirts in this format.  Overall, the records of Neuvirth and Varlamov against the Rangers in their respective rookie playoff appearances look like this:

They had similar success in terms of being almost impenerable in the friendly confines of Verizon Center:

But even at Madison Square Garden, neither could be said to be a sieve:

The point here is that before folks start clammoring for Neuvirth to be named the once and future successor to the domain of Kolzig, remember that another rookie goaltender had quite a series for the Caps against this same opponent just a short time ago.  We don't point this out to jinx Neuvirth, but merely to highlight once more that the Caps have an embarrassment of riches at the position, and have the luxury of watching these youngsters (along with Braden Holtby) fight it out to see just who inherits the crease.

Tending Your (Madison Square) Garden

We chuckle from time to time at Larry Brooks of the New York Post and the way he wears his fan's heart on his sleeve when he writes about the Rangers. But we read this morning's column by Brooks and thought it an accurate and thoughtful summary of what went on at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night, and more to the point, why it could happen.

We were especially taken with this commentary by Brooks:

"There was [Alex] Ovechkin (and there, and there!) and there were Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson. For the Rangers, well, they couldn't find a game-breaker, they couldn't find a difference maker."

It bears noting that all four Capitals mentioned by Brooks are home grown, all drafted by the Caps.  The Rangers' Marian Gaborik, to whom these players are compared (and Gaborik found wanting in the comparison), is the latest "talent" the Rangers chose to sign to a big free-agent deal, a contract they signed just as they got out from under the last one of that sort, a mega-deal with Scott Gomez that did not have the desired results.

The Rangers are doing better in terms of trying to forego the splashy signing in favor of drafting and growing their own talent.  Witness players like Derek Stepan (2008), Artem Anisimov (2006), Marc Staal and Michael Sauer (both in 2005), and Brandon Dubinsky (2004).  And that does not include the injured Ryan Callahan (2004).  But the Rangers have a large hole to climb out of when it comes to drafting high-end talent, having eschewed the home-grown route for so many years in favor of the newest "hot" thing in free agency.

One team tended their garden well, one did not.  It's not over, but which one is on the brink this morning?

Rookies

A doff of the prognosticatorial hat to Mike Vogel and this fine piece for making us wonder how the rookies were doing compared to their peers.  Not bad, as it turns out.  But you have to be impressed, too, with the ice time the Ranger rookies are getting.

(click the pic for a larger version)

Take on Five

Well, here we are. Just about where we thought we would be at this point in the opening round series against the New York Rangers. The Washington Capitals hold a three-games-to-one lead over the Blueshirts off their stirring 4-3 double-overtime win at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night.

Now comes the hard part.

Any Capitals fan of any reasonable length of time recoils at the mention of the words, “Game Five.” For that Caps fan knows that many of the most spectacular collapses in team playoff history came when the Caps were but one game away from moving on with three chances to do so. And those Games 5 often were harbingers of agony to come.

The Capitals have held 3-1 leads in games nine times in team history and have a 2-7 record in those games. Frankly, it seems as if they have played more of them and, to the point, lost more of them. It all started way back in 1987. Caps fans might see the year and say, “yeah, sure…the four-overtime Game 7.” Well, the Caps had to play a Game 5 before they could experience that agony. In the 1987 opening round series against the New York Islanders, the Caps held a 3-1 lead in games heading into Game 5 on the strength of two consecutive wins – a 2-0 shutout and a 4-1 win, both on Long Island and both authored by goalie Bob Mason, who took over in goal for Pete Peeters. But Peeters got the call in Game 5. He started, but he did not finish. The Caps lost Game 5, 4-2, and would go on to lost Game 6, 5-4, on Long Island. Then they would lose the epic four-overtime Game 7 that ended on Easter morning on a ricochet off the post by Pat Lafontaine. The Caps’ Game 5 disasters started off with a bang, or more precisely, ended that series with a “clang.”

Three years later they would take a 3-1 lead into Game 5 in the second round matchup with the New York Rangers. This was the year of “Druce on the Loose,” and John Druce, the unlikely hero of the 1990 post-season for the Caps, already had three game-winning goals among the Caps seven wins heading into that Game 5 contest. With the chance to clinch this time, though, the Caps took advantage and ended the Rangers’ season in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden on an overtime goal by – who else – John Druce.

In 1992, however, the Caps found once more the secret to grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory. Having abused the Pittsburgh Penguins to the tune of 20 goals in the first four games of their opening round series (one of them another game-winner by Druce), the Caps went dry on offense in Game 5, able to muster only a pair of goals against Penguin goalie Tom Barrasso in a 5-2 loss in Landover. It was all the opening the Penguins needed, and they started their two decades worth of punishment of the Caps with 6-4 and 3-1 wins in Games 6 and 7 to close out the series.

The Caps got a measure of revenge two years later, despite some bad luck in Game 5 of their first-round series against Pittsburgh. Unlike their meeting in 1992, the first four games were close, more defensive affairs, although the Caps did post a 4-1 win in Game 4 to push the Pens to the brink of elimination. In a curious twist to this series, the three games the Caps won leading up to Game 5 were won by goalie Don Beaupre, while the only loss was suffered by Byron Dafoe. So, who got the call in Game 5? Dafoe. The Penguins won that contest, 3-2. Beaupre returned to the nets for Game 6, and this time the Caps ended the series with a dominating 6-3 win in Landover.

The next year these teams met again, for the fourth time in five post-seasons. The Penguins took home bragging rights once more, despite the Caps running out to that 3-1 lead in games. The hook here was that the Caps featured rookie Jim Carey in goal, who posted an 18-6-3 record (2.13, .913, four shutouts) in the regular season. He also allowed only 10 goals in the first four games against a powerful Penguin offense (the Pens scored an empty netter in a 5-3 win in Game 2). But in what would begin one of the most stunning falls from playoff grace ever suffered by a goaltender, Carey allowed a shorthanded goal by Jaromir Jagr with the Caps on a power play and holding a lead in Game 5. Carey could not stop the flood as the Pens rallied for a 6-5 overtime win, then won games 6 and 7 by 7-1 (a game in which the Caps would actually use three goaltenders – Carey, Dafoe, and Olaf Kolzig) and 3-0 scores.

In 1998 the Caps had three three-games-to-one leads on their way to the Stanley Cup finals. Oddly enough, the Caps lost two of them. In the first round the Caps let Boston pry their way back into the series with a 4-0 win over the Caps in Washington. But the Caps would clinch with a 3-2 overtime win in Boston in Game 6. In the second round the Caps did not allow Ottawa such an opportunity, as Olaf Kolzig followed up a 2-0 shutout win in Ottawa in Game 4 with a 3-0 whitewashing of the Senators in Game 5. In the Eastern Conference finals, the Caps dropped a 2-0 decision to Buffalo in Game 1, then rode the goaltending of Kolzig to three straight wins in Games 2-4, two of the wins coming in overtime. Despite the Caps allowing only 16 shots on goal in Game 5, the Sabres squeaked out a 2-1 win to extend the series. One more is all it took, though, as Joe Juneau scored the overtime goal in Buffalo to give the Caps a 3-2 win and send them to their only Cup final.

Twelve years would pass before a new generation of Caps fans could experience the horror of Game 5. That came in last year’s first round matchup with the Montreal Canadiens. After winning in overtime in Game 2, then utterly dominating the Habs in Games 3 and 4 (winning all three games by a combined 17-9 score), the Caps ran into the dreaded “hot goaltender.” Jaroslav Halak stopped 37 of 38 shots in a 2-1 win in Washington to deny the Caps the clincher. Halak would go on to stop 131 of 134 shots in Games 5-7 (.978 save percentage) to shock the Presidents Trophy-winning Caps out of the playoffs before they had barely begun.

So, what do we have in Games 5 when the Caps have that 3-1 lead in games?...

-- The Caps have taken a 3-1 lead in games into a Game 5 nine times.
-- They are 2-7 all time in those Games 5.
-- Six times the Caps have played that Game 5 on home ice…five times they lost. Three times after those losses the Caps went on to lose the series.
-- In three of the nine instances, the Caps played the Penguins, the most frequent opponent in such games. The Caps lost all three Games 5 against the Penguins with a 3-1 lead in games, but they did manage to capture one of the series, in 1994, the only time the Caps beat the Penguins in a playoff series.
-- The Caps faced the Rangers once in this situation, beating the Blueshirts in a 2-1 overtime decision in 1990 to advance to the Wales Conference finals.
-- The Caps have averaged only two goals a game (18 total goals) in the nine Games 5, nine of them in three games against the Penguins (nine in the other six games against other opponents). Beware holding those sticks too tight.
- They have allowed three goals a game (27 total) in those Games 5, but 14 of them came in three games against the Penguins (13 allowed in six games against other opponents).

Game 5 has not been kind to the Capitals. But if there is a silver lining in all of this for the Caps, it is this. Most of the horror that has been Game 5 is a product of games against Pittsburgh. In the six other Game 5 played by the Caps, they do have two wins (hey, it’s something), and they have managed to win four of those series in the end (although three of them came in their 1998 Stanley Cup finals run). And there is this -- the Rangers have never recovered from a 1-3 deficit in games in a playoff series. The Caps need to end this…

…now.

In Living Color

Washington Post style...

(click on it for larger image)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 4: Capitals 4 - Rangers 3 (2OT)

Admit it, Caps fans… after 40 minutes, you were polishing your expletives to describe another collapse by the Caps. It took the New York Rangers less than 34 minutes to stick the Washington Capitals in a 3-0 hole behind goals by Artem Anisimov, Marian Gaborik, and Brandon Dubinsky. You could almost see the whole season unraveling before your eyes… the “defense-first” philosophy being ripped to shreds by a team that had scored three real hockey goals in consecutive games for the first time in more than a month, the end of the Michal Neuvirth run in goal for the Caps, another chapter in Alex Ovechkin’s journal of post-season frustration, and another two-game lead squandered by a team that holds several patents on the method.

Then… it was the Rangers’ turn to make mistakes. Rookie defenseman Ryan McDonagh looked as if he did not know what to do with the puck behind his own net in the third minute of the third period, and when he finally made a decision, it was the wrong one. He shot the puck toward the left wing boards, where the puck was intercepted by Alexander Semin. The Caps forward stepped down into a shooting area and fired the puck on goalie Henrik Lundqvist, who slowed, but did not stop the puck. He took a couple of swipes at the biscuit with his glove along the goal line trying for a stoppage, but missed with each swipe. The puck settled next to his pad at the near post, and Semin jabbed his stick into the opening to nudge the puck the last six inches across the goal line.

If that goal was a spark, Marcus Johansson lit the flame. Fifty-seven seconds after Semin’s goal, Johansson converted a cross-ice feed from Brooks Laich, backhanding the puck into the net from the far post past Lundquvist. Then, eight minutes and change later it was Johansson again, without the need of his stick, having a shot by John Carlson from the left point strike him in the chest and deflect past Lundqvist to tie the game.

Forty minutes later, in the second overtime, the Caps got a gift. Jason Chimera skated down the left wing into the Ranger zone and got tangled up with defenseman Bryan McCabe. The puck squirted toward the Ranger net, where Lunqvist looked to be in position to move the puck aside or cover it. But Marian Gaborik, who was backchecking on the play, took a one-handed whack at the puck to try to move it out of harm’s way. All he succeeded in doing was hitting Chimera in the pants with it. The puck dropped behind Lundqvist inches from the goal, and with McCabe having lost Chimera in the wash, the Caps forward had only to bunt the puck the last foot to complete the comeback and give the Caps a 4-3 win and a three-games-to-one lead in the series.

Other stuff…

-- That’s 29-1-0 now. The Rangers came into this game with a 29-0-0 record when leading after two periods of play this season. They picked one helluva time for their first loss in such situations.

-- That comeback by the Caps was and remains the only time so far in this post-season (in 19 such games) that a team trailing at the second intermission came back to win the game.

-- Don’t look now, but that is six goals in the last 16 games for Marcus Johansson. Might not sound like much, but it is a 31-goal pace over 82 games.

-- Lost in this win is the good news/bad news aspect of special teams, particularly the penalty killers. The good news is that the Caps killed off all seven Ranger power plays, making the PK 17-for-18 so far in the series (94.4 percent). The bad news is that this is two games in a row where the Rangers got seven power plays.

-- You knew…you just KNEW that the Caps were going to lose this game when they took a too-many-men-on-the-ice call five minutes into the second overtime. Shades of Jason Doig! But the Rangers, alas, do not have Martin St. Louis. They did not muster as much as a single shot on goal in that last power play, and they had only four shots for the game on the seven power plays they had. The story of this game is the PK as much as the comeback.

-- Michal Neuvirth did not look sharp early, giving up three goals on the first 16 shots he faced. But he stopped the last 23 to finish the game. You would like to see more consistency in his game, but right now he is tied for second in goals against average among playoff goalies (1.45) and is fourth in save percentage (.942). He does seem to have this discomforting Jekyll and Hyde thing going on with respect to home and road games, though. Good thing Saturday’s game is at Verizon Center, eh?

-- Every single Cap registered a hit in this game, save one – Marcus Johansson. Only Derek Stepan failed to register one for the Rangers. The official scorer must have had his finger stuck on the hit counter – 120 hits combined for both teams, the Rangers credited with 69 of them. Brian Boyle was given credit for ten for the Blueshirts, and Matt Bradley had seven in barely ten minutes of ice time for the Caps.

-- An odd game in terms of time management for the Rangers. The trio of forwards Chris Drury, Erik Christensen, and Wojtek Wolski all skated less than 16 minutes in this game (Christensen fewer than 13 and Wolski fewer than ten), but they skated more or less regular shifts deep in the overtimes. Given that they weren’t being trusted with minutes during the body of regulation time, what could be expected of them in OT except to run off minutes to give the nine forwards who were getting minutes a breather?

-- You might make the same case for the Capitals with Matt Bradley getting barely ten minutes for the game and Matt Hendricks only 13. But with the Caps trying to dig out of a 3-0 hole, they needed more offense on the ice than these guys were likely to provide. Bradley skated one shift in the third period and Hendricks only three.

-- The Caps held the Rangers to 72 shot attempts in more than 92 minutes of play (they had 103 of their own).

-- We wonder a bit about Nicklas Backstrom’s health. He did have five shots last night (more than doubling his total for the series), but he has only one assist in the series and hasn’t had a goal since March 22nd (12 straight games, and counting). Is the hand bothering him?

-- Kudos to Mike Green. He has taken a beating in this series, but last night he had an assist (he is tied for the team points lead with Alex Ovechkin) and skated almost 34 minutes without being on the ice for any Ranger goals.

-- Speaking of being on the ice for Ranger goals, the Carlson/Alzner duo were on for all three Ranger tallies. But after that, John Carlson and Karl Alzner were rock solid. Mistakes are one thing, picking oneself up and dusting oneself off to do better is another. It was fitting that each got an assist on the game-tying goal in the third period.

In the end, this is not over. Caps fans know better. But this is where the Caps should be in this series, with a three-games-to-one lead. How they got here is at least as important as the fact that they are here. A comeback from a 3-0 deficit in the last 20 minutes against a team that did not surrender a second-intermission lead all season has to be inspiring, especially since one of their most productive players down the stretch – Mike Knuble – had to sit this one out. And it should not escape notice that the game-winning goal by Jason Chimera was scored in Knublesque fashion, by driving to the net and picking up loose change.

And don’t forget Marcus Johansson, who scored his goals by: a) going to the net and being there for the feed from Brooks Laich, and b) going to the net and getting himself in a position to have a puck bounce off a body part for a goal. The four goals the Caps scored might not have traveled a total of 30 feet (unless you count the distance in the Carlson slapper that bounced off Johansson for the third goal).

But now the serious work of closing a team out awaits. It is fitting that we are right where we were a year ago, with that 3-1 lead in games and a team that might be reeling after a tough loss on their home ice (last year, Montreal lost both Games 3 and 4 on home ice). Have the Caps learned their lessons? Can they “stay angry?”

Hey...as long as they win 'em one game at a time, 13 more times.

The Curse of Seven Games

In 1987 the NHL changed its playoff format from a best-of-five series in the first round to a best-of-seven series. Twenty-three seasons have passed since the change in format, and a stroll down History Lane might help pass the time for Caps fans as we gear up for Game 5 in this best-of-seven opening round against the Rangers. The topic for today’s reading is “do Stanley Cup-winning teams often have to deal with seven-game opening round series?”  Well, let's look at the history.

The Early Years – “The Fear of God”

In 1987, in the first year of the new opening round format, the Edmonton Oilers dropped the first game in their opening round series against the Los Angeles Kings. It did not have the desired effect on the Oilers, at least if you were a Kings fan. The Oilers proceeded to annihilate the Kings in Game 2 by a 13-3 score and won the last four games of the series by an aggregate score of 30-15, taking down the Kings in five games.

Edmonton duplicated the five-game feat in the opening round in 1988, defeating the Winnipeg Jets, on their way to another Stanley Cup. But over the next four seasons – from 1989 through 1992 – Stanley Cup winners would have the fear of God put into them in the opening round.

In 1989 the Calgary Flames would almost give away a three-to-one lead in games over the Vancouver Canucks before squeaking out a 4-3 series clinching win in Game 7.

In 1990, it would be quite a different path the Edmonton Oilers took in the first round on their way to a fifth Stanley Cup. They fell behind three-games-to-one to the Winnipeg Jets, looking to avenge their first round defeat at the hands of the Oilers in 1988. But the Oilers stormed back to win Games 5-7 (if one-goal wins in Games 5 and 6 could be called “storming,” before winning by a 4-1 margin in Game 7).

In 1991, the Pittsburgh Penguins would win the first of their consecutive Stanley Cups, and they would experience the first of consecutive seven-game series on their way to those championships. It was the New Jersey Devils that took them to the limit in the opening round this time, the teams exchanging wins over the course of the series, Pittsburgh winning the odd-numbered games and the Devils the even-numbered ones. In 1992 the Penguins repeated the feat, this time at the expense of the Washington Capitals, not only overcoming a 3-1 deficit in games, but coming back from being plastered in Game 4 by a 7-2 margin on home ice. Although the series was close, the games were not. There wasn’t a one-goal game in the bunch in that series.

The 1992 seven-game series represented the last time since the seven-game opening round format was started that an eventual Stanley Cup winner was extended to seven games in the opening round, which brings us to…

Dead Puck, Meet Broom

After the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Quebec Nordiques in a tough (three games settled in overtime) six-game series in the opening round of the 1993 Stanley Cup playoffs before winning their Cup, the New York Rangers would start something of a trend the following year. In 1994 the Rangers made short work of the New York Islanders, winning the opening round series in a four-game sweep, outscoring the Islanders by an aggregate 22-3 score, with two shutouts.

There would be no sweeps in any of the next four years, nor would any series go to seven games. But in 1999, 2000, and 2001, the opening round . In 1999, the Dallas Stars knocked off Edmonton in four games that might have been the epitome of the dead puck era. The teams combined for 18 goals in four games (Dallas getting 11 of them), and in no game did either team register more than three goals.

In 2000, the New Jersey Devils swept the Florida Panthers in four games in a slightly higher scoring series – the teams combined for 18 goals (the same as the previous year), but at least one team (the Devils in Games 1 and 4) scored four goals.

In 2001, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Vancouver Canucks, 4-0, on their way to a Stanley Cup. It was nip-and-tuck for awhile, the Avalanche recording one-goal wins in Games 1-3. But facing a 0-3 deficit, the Canucks bowed by a 5-1 margin in Game 4. The 2001 opening round sweep was the last time an eventual Stanley Cup winner won in four straight in the opening round.

Why “Six” Is Better Than “Seven”

Over the last eight seasons, “six” has been the number of choice for Stanley Cup winners in the opening round. Five times in eight seasons, including the past three, the eventual champion has eliminated their opening round opponent in six games.

2002 was the first year in this stretch in which the eventual champ closed out a series in six games. The Detroit Red Wings did the trick, beating Vancouver in the Games 3-6 after dropping the first pair of contests at Joe Louis Arena.

In 2003 and 2004, both the Devils and the Tampa Bay Lightning eliminated their opponents in five games, the Devils over the Bruins (after skating out to a 3-0 lead in games) and the Lightning over the Islanders (shutting out the Isles three times in the process). But in 2006, in the first playoff after the lockout, the opening round once more required a sixth game to settle things. The Carolina Hurricanes won the last four games of the series against the Montreal Canadiens, each by one goal (twice in overtime, including the series-clinching game) after falling behind two games to none at home.

In 2007 the Anaheim Ducks would win the last five-game opening round series to date, dispatching the Minnesota Wild after taking the first three games, then dropping Game 4.

In 2008 the Red Wings won their most recent Stanley Cup and started on their way with a six-game win over the Nashville Predators in the opening round. After splitting the first four games of that series, each team winning a pair on home ice, Game 5 appeared to be the pivotal matchup, the Red Wings taking a one-goal decision over the Predators before wrapping things up in Nashville with a 3-0 shutout.

The Pittsburgh Penguins won their third Cup in 2009, and they got off to a good start in the opening round with a six-game win over their cross-state rivals, the Philadelphia Flyers. It was a case of the team with the 3-1 lead in games (the Penguins) not wanting to let things get to a Game 7 after dropping Game 5 (a 3-0 Flyer win in Pittsburgh). The Penguins closed things out on the road with a 5-3 win.

Last season, the Chicago Blackhawks started their march to a Stanley Cup with the third straight six-game opening round series for the eventual Cup winner. It was the Predators once more serving as the opponent, the second time in three seasons they would fall in six games in the opening round to the eventual champions. After splitting the first four games, Chicago took a one-goal decision in Game 5 before ending the series in a 5-3 win in Nashville in Game 6.

So there you have it. Twenty-three seasons of best-of-seven formats in the opening round. What we can tell from the history is that any thoughts Caps fans might have had of a sweep over the Rangers was ill-placed. There has not been an opening round sweep by the eventual Cup champs in the last eight playoff seasons. In fact, of the eight opening round series this season, only Detroit is poised to sweep their series, holding a 3-0 lead over the Phoenix Coyotes.

And if you are thinking the Caps might get by with a seven-game win over the Rangers, that is likely to be of small and short comfort. No Stanley Cup champion has opened with a seven-game series win since 1992, a run of 17 straight seasons.

“Must win” games are, by definition, “elimination games.” Those are the only ones a team “must” win, because if they do not, their season is over. But if the Caps do not win this evening, you would have to say that they have to win Game 5 to have, in addition to an advantage in this series against the Rangers, a reasonable chance to win a Stanley Cup. Teams that are dragged through seven games in the opening round just don’t win Cups. That has been the history over almost two decades of Stanley Cup playoffs. Sure, history can be made, as the NHL ads tell us, but it would not be the way to bet. The Caps need to end this thing.

Soon.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 4: Caps vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

You would have been hard-pressed to find anyone who thought the Washington Capitals would sweep the New York Rangers in the their Eastern Conference quarterfinal matchup, but now that the Caps have lost a game in this series, Caps fans are getting antsy. Is this a mere hiccup on the way to the next round, or are we seeing the next agonizing installment of “The Washington Capitals: A Study in the Gag Reflex?”

You will have to forgive Caps fans if they seem a bit pessimistic about the boys’ chances in this series, despite taking a two games to one lead into tonight’s game at Madison Square Garden. But truth be told, the Caps are in relatively unknown territory here. The Caps have played in 28 best-of-seven series in franchise history, and in only five of them did they win their first two games. Before we go any further, it is worth noting that the Caps have never swept a best-of-seven series. Never. So there isn’t anything new in regard to an opponent winning a game in a seven-game playoff series. Get over it.

OK, so, about those five best-of-sevens in which they won their first two games. In only three of them did those two wins come at home: in 1992 against Pittsburgh, in 1998 against Ottawa, and in 2009 against Pittsburgh once more. The 1992 series against Pittsburgh might not provide much in the way of historical insight. Even though the Caps finished the 1991-1992 season ahead of the Penguins in the standings, the Penguins were the defending Stanley Cup champions (they would go on to win a second straight Cup in 1992). But those last two series. Hmm….

In 1998 the Caps won their opening series against the Boston Bruins and prepared to meet the Ottawa Senators in the second round. The Senators were the proverbial team “no one wanted to play” in the playoffs, having closed the 1997-1998 season with an 11-5-5 record (there being five ties, not overtime losses). Then the Senators dispatched the New Jersey Devils – the top-seeded team in the Eastern Conference – in six games in the first round. Despite the Senators’ finish in the standings (fifth in the Northeast Division, eighth in the Eastern Conference), they were not necessarily – as the Devils found out – a team anyone would want to face in the playoffs.

The Caps shook off the Senators’ challenge early in the second round, bolting out to a 2-0 lead in games on the basis of a 4-2 win in Game 1 and a 6-2 decision in Game 2. Back to Ottawa the teams went, and the Senators got one back when Daniel Alfredsson scored a hat trick in a 4-3 win. But that was all the fun Ottawa would have in that series, as the Caps shut the door – slammed it, actually – with 2-0 and 3-0 shutouts behind goalie Olaf Kolzig in Games 4 and 5 to close out the series. The Caps would go on to beat the Buffalo Sabres in the Eastern Conference final to reach their first, and only Stanley Cup final.

The 2009 instance was less pleasant. After outlasting the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, the Caps won Games 1 and 2 of their conference semifinal matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins, each by one-goal margins. But in Game 3, the Penguins turned the tables with a 3-2 overtime win. Although the Caps scored late – a goal by Nicklas Backstrom with 1:50 remaining in regulation – to send the game into overtime, it might have been looked at as an opportunity lost to pin the Penguins in a 3-0 hole. The Caps still had that two games to one lead, though, and had an opportunity to push the Pens to the brink with a win and a return to Verizon Center for Game 5. But the Penguins won Game 4 by a 5-3 margin and stole momentum away from the Capitals, momentum that helped propel them to a 4-3 overtime win in Washington in Game 5. The Caps won Game 6 in Pittsburgh – the third overtime game in the last four games played in that series – to force a Game 7 in Washington, a game that needs no recapping here given the unpleasant memories of the result.

So here we are, the Capitals once more staking themselves to an early lead with two wins at home. They did not capitalize on the momentum of such wins, the Rangers scoring late in Game 3 to escape a 3-0 hole in games with a 3-2 win. Whether that result is a mere bump in the road on the way to a deep playoff run, or whether the Caps let the Rangers off the hook to make this a long nail-biter of a series, depends on what transpires tonight in Game 4. There is little history to guide us, but enough to paint a picture of different roads the Caps might find themselves on with the outcome.

And if history is a guide, it might suggest that the outcome might rest on the young shoulders of the Capitals’ rookie goaltender, Michal Neuvirth. In 1998, 27-year old Olaf Kolzig, in his first full season as the Caps number one netminder, was the one slamming that door on the Senators in Games 4 and 5 to win the series for the Caps, four games to one. In 2009, 21-year old Semyon Varlamov allowed five goals on 28 shots in game 4 against Pittsburgh, then wilted under the incessant barrage of shots fired at him by the Penguins over the last three games of the series (12 goals allowed on the last 102 shots he faced in those three games).

In this series the Caps did a good job of protecting Neuvirth in terms of shots faced in games 1 and 2 (47 shots overall, only one goal allowed). But the Rangers peppered the 23-year old with 35 shots in Game 3 in Madison Square Garden, three of which eluded Neuvirth. The Caps have to do a better job of preventing shots, and Neuvirth needs to stop the ones he does face – a rather elementary conclusion to be sure. But it is on that simple maxim – preventing shots in the first place and stopping the ones that get through – upon which this game and this series might turn. 

And we're going to find out if this is an attitude, or just a shirt...


Caps 3 – Rangers 2

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 3: Rangers 3 - Capitals 2

There will be no sweep.

The Washington Capitals saw their lead in games halved in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals this afternoon, falling to the New York Rangers, 3-2, on a late goal by Brandon Dubinsky. The Caps will take a 2-1 series lead into Wednesday’s Game 4 at Madison Square Garden.

The Caps came back twice from one-goal deficits to tie the contest, the first time when Alex Ovechkin knotted the game at a goal apiece by tipping in a drive from Jason Arnott with one minute left in the first period. The second time came late in the third period when Mike Knuble picked up some loose change in front of goalie Henrik Lundqvist, putting back a shot by Nicklas Backstrom to tie the game with 5:12 left in regulation.

The Rangers had one more left in them, though, when Brandon Dubinsky circled out from the left wing corner and threaded the puck to the net. After pinballing around for a moment, it appeared that Alex Ovechkin (trying to tie up Dubinsky) put the puck into his own net for what would be the game-winner. The Caps could not get the third equalizer in the last 99 seconds, and the Caps had their series lead cut to 2-1 heading into Wednesday’s game at the Garden.

Other stuff…

-- 10:33… That is how much time the Caps spent killing penalties this afternoon. They killed off 8:00 in Games 1 and 2 combined.

-- One thing the Caps had been able to do in this series so far was to limit Ranger shot opportunities (47 in Games 1 and 2 combined). The Rangers had 35 shots in this one, though, ten of which came on seven power plays.

-- The Rangers’ experiment with Vaclav Prospal, Erik Christensen, and Marian Gaborik lasted one game. Gaborik was matched with Brandon Dubinsky and Ruslan Fedotenko to start the game. That line could muster only four shots on goal, Gaborik getting three of them and Dubinsky getting the other “shot” on the game-winner than came off Ovechkin’s stick.

-- Those 35 shots on goal for the Rangers. Think that number was influenced by power plays? Brian Boyle had nine shots on goal (more than twice as many as any other Ranger), four of which came on power plays.

-- It was Prospal who had the next highest number of shots (four), including a goal, but he also had five giveaways.

-- Henrik Lundqvist played well (although first star of the game?), but we think Michal Neuvirth played better. Neither could keep Alex Ovechkin from putting a puck in the net.

-- Chris Rooney AND Frederick L’Ecuyer (who replaced Rooney when Rooney suffered a broken leg in the second period) refereeing a game involving the Caps? Any wonder the Rangers had seven power plays?

-- Speaking of Chris’…Chris Drury appeared to be dressed for one reason and one reason only…to take faceoffs, specifically faceoffs in the defensive zone. Drury skated only 7:58 but took 19 draws overall, winning 15 of them. He was 13-for-16 in the defensive zone.

-- The flip side of that was that Jason Arnott was 4-for-15 in draws and was 0-for-9 in the offensive zone, losing all seven draws he took against Drury in the O-zone.

-- Because of the discrepancy in power plays, only one Capitals forward skated more than 20 minutes, that being Brooks Laich (21:49). Laich skated 5:37 while the Caps were killing off penalties. Hard for a team to generate any offensive rhythm when the big scorers are off the ice.

-- Good…Alex Ovechkin’s second goal of the series made him 2-for-9 in shooting (22.2 percent). The bad…he’s had only three shots on goal in the last two games, only one in Game 3 (a goal).

In the end, this game isn’t as important as what comes next. The Caps might have an “oh-no” moment, where they remember their past. Or they might break out those “stay angry” t-shirts we heard about last fall. For even after withstanding an interminable march to the penalty box, playing in a hostile arena, and batting the puck into their own net for the winning goal, the Caps still lost by that lone goal. If the scales of justice tipped that far in favor of the Rangers in this game, and they still could escape with a win only as a result of an “own goal,” then the Caps should look at this game as a hiccup instead of a reverse of momentum.

The Caps are the better team here. For most of the first three games they played like it. What they need to finish off this series quickly is to play with the swagger that goes with knowing they are the better team. Not overconfidence, not arrogance. Just an attitude that puts the Rangers back in their place, looking up from a deep hole. It is the lesson we would like to think the Caps have learned over the last three years – the importance of putting a team away.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 2: Capitals 2 - Rangers 0

The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. – Tolstoy

The Caps made it two for two against the New York Rangers last night behind goals by the Jasons – Chimera and Arnott – and 22 saves by goalie Michal Neuvirth in defeating the Blueshirts, 2-0.

The scoreboard looked a lot like Wednesday’s first period scoreboard with neither team able to tickle the twine. However, how they were authoring that result was a bit different this time around. The Rangers came out hard with four shots on goal in the first 97 seconds. But Neuvirth turned all of them away to allow his teammates to get their skating legs. Jason Chimera finally got the Caps on the shot meter 6:17 in, but the Caps had no better luck than the Rangers in finding the back of the net. The first period ended scoreless.

As unruffled as the nets were in the first period, they became, well… ruffled at the start of the second. At one end of the rink, anyway. Jason Chimera took a feed from Marcus Johansson between the hash marks and one-timed the pass past goalie Henrik Lundqvist at 2:11 of the period. Brooks Laich got the second assist, but it does not do justice to the hard work he put in to make that goal happen. After a faceoff in the Ranger end, Laich dueled with defenseman Matt Gilroy for the puck in the Rangers’ left wing corner. He kept the puck alive, pushing it back to Chimera along the boards. The puck came back around to Laich behind the Ranger net, and with Gilroy draped all over him, he pushed the puck one-handed to Johansson, who then found Chimera for the goal.

Just 1:57 later the Caps got some good fortune on a power play. Alex Ovechkin walked the puck down the blue line at the top of the Rangers’ zone and flicked it over to Mike Green at the top of the right wing faceoff circle. Green walked the puck down a couple of steps and took a shot from the edge of the right wing circle. Matt Gilroy blocked the shot, but not cleanly. The puck deflected across the slot, and when it came out the other side, right onto the stick of Jason Arnott. He did not waste the opportunity, burying the puck before goalie Henrik Lundqvist could get across to defend the shot.

And that was all Michal Neuvirth needed, looking for all the world like a 12-year vet instead of a rookie playing in his second NHL playoff game. Only once all game could it be said Neuvirth was swimming around in his crease, that coming about seven minutes into the third period and the Caps nursing that two-goal lead. But with Neuvirth down and out on a scramble in front, John Erskine made a glove save of his own, knocking down a Brandon Prust shot that was ticketed for the short side of the net. That was as much pressure as the Rangers could muster, and now they have to find a way to solve not only Neuvirth, but a suffocating defense that limited the Rangers to 22 shots on goal.

Other stuff…

-- Not only did the Rangers have only 22 shots on goal, they had only 48 attempts in 60 minutes, almost 20 fewer than what they had in 64 minutes in Game 1 (65). Only nine total shots on goal in the last 40 minutes tonight.

-- Are the Caps buying into this defense-first thing? Watching Mike Green lay out in the second period on shot by Brandon Dubinsky to block it was pretty convincing evidence that they are.  As was Karl Alzner taking one for the team and finishing his shift despite his being in considerable distress.

-- Brooks Laich wins the score sheet buffet coupon. An assist, plus-1, one shot on goal, five attempts, a hit, a takeaway, two blocked shots, and won six-of-nine draws in a shade under 19 minutes.

-- If Laich won the buffet, Marcus Johansson might be standing right behind him in line. He had an assist, was plus-1, had a shot on goal, three attempts, a hit, two blocked shots, and won five of eight draws in just under 17 minutes.

-- Sixteen of 18 skaters were credited with hits for the Caps (Boyd Gordon and Scott Hannan the only Caps without one).

-- In two games the Rangers have 47 shots on goal and have had 53 shot attempts blocked.

-- Marian Gaborik had four shots on goal, but was pushed outside to get them. They came from an average of almost 35 feet from the net.

-- Karl Alzner responded to a reporter’s comment yesterday that blocked shots are not the sexiest statistic by saying, “it is to me.” Alzner will make young women swoon with his exploits last night – eight blocked shots that puts him at the top of the playoff rankings in that statistic (11 total in two games).

-- Four Caps have at least five blocked shots (Jeff Schultz, Scott Hannan, and Mike Green – wait, did you say “Mike Green?” – yes, Mike Green are the others).

-- Coach Bruce Boudreau had a chance to manage ice time in a little more balanced manner in this game. No forward skated 20 minutes; no defenseman skated as many as 22 minutes.

-- The Rangers had no giveaways? None?

In the end, one has to wonder what John Tortorella has left to try in this series. He tried putting Erik Christensen, Vaclav Prospal, and Marian Gaborik on a line to generate more offense. They has a total of six shots on goal. He tried inserting Sean Avery into the lineup to provide some energy. Avery skated a mostly quiet ten minutes.

In fact, even though coach Bruce Boudreau did not seem especially pleased with the play of the Caps in the first five minutes of both the first and third periods, the Rangers looked small and slow in this one. And the Rangers did not do nearly as good a job as in Game 1 in getting pucks deep and working from behind the goal line. The Caps did a much better job taking away the boards and thus preventing a lot of the Rangers’ avenue to getting those pucks deep.

There is little more Henrik Lundqvist can do for the Rangers. He cannot be faulted for either of the Caps goals tonight. Stopping 47 of 51 shots (a .922 save percentage) will win a goalie his share of games. At the moment, Brian Boyle might be the best player so far among the skaters. And as good a story as that might otherwise have been for the Rangers, he can’t be their best skater. Marian Gaborik has done next to nothing, and has not looked especially engaged in doing (or not doing) it. Brandon Dubinsky has no points, is minus-3, and has won only 36 percent of his draws. Vaclav Prospal has only three shots on goal; Chris Drury has none.

The Rangers are trying to crash the net, but it hasn’t been successful. And given the lack of offensive skill in their lineup, they do not have a lot of paths that get them to a solution for their inability to solve Neuvirth. Unless Tortorella has another idea, he might be reduced to trying to get more out of a limited set of strategies. And that could make for a quick series.

But again, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Just win one game…14 more times.

Omens

Perusing Twitter this morning, we are struck by all the tweets mulling the meaning of music or the sway of signs on the outcome of tonight's game between the Caps and the Rangers.  In other words, these tweeters wonder if there are omens in the mundane that point to a win or a loss tonight.  Well, let's see...

-- Today is the 559th anniversary of the birth of Leonardo daVinci, described as "a painter, sculptor, scientist, visionary ."  Sort of like the Alexander Semin of his day.  Hat trick for Good Sasha...

-- Adrian Cadbury (former chairman of the candy manufacturer) was born on this date in 1929.  Hershey manufactures and distributes Cadbury-branded chocolate in the United States.  Hershey is where the Bears play.  mmm....sweet!

-- On this date in 1738, the bottle-opener was invented. On omen for good times and adult beverages tonight?

-- On this date in 1892, General Electric incorporated in New York.  GE designed those nuclear reactors in Japan that are so much in the news.  An omen there?

-- On this date in 1912, the Royal Mail Ship "Titanic" sank on its maiden voyage (its "first round" of service, so to speak) on its way to...New York.  An omen about not reaching your goal, New York fans?

-- On this date in 1925, the "New York Americans" NHL franchise was awarded to sports promoter Thomas Duggan and bootlegger Wiliam "Big Bill" Bill Dwyer.  It was the first NHL team in New York.  The team played its first season icing players from the former Hamilton Tigers, which was suspended from the league (despite finishing first the season before) because they struck for higher pay.  Dwyer ended up lavishing higher salaries on his new players.  What's the omen here?  Well, the Americans lasted 17 years and didn't win anything (no Cups, out of the playoffs in 12 of those years) despite being bankrolled by deep pockets ownership.  Sound familiar, Ranger fans?

They don't have a chance.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 2: Caps vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, we’re off and running in the 2011 Stanley Cup tournament, the Washington Capitals breaking out on top of the New York Rangers with a 2-1 overtime win on Wednesday when Sasha Prime scored ugly and Sasha Minor scored pretty in the first extra session to overcome a goal by Matt Gilroy and 31 saves from Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist.

Now it is a matter of adding a few shovelfuls of dirt on the Rangers to bury them under a 2-0 series deficit. And then…

“Ya know, cuz, the Caps aren’t exactly worl’ beaters when they win a Game 1.”

Huh?

“The Caps…winning Game 1 ain’t such a big thing here, cuz?”

Is that so?

“Yeah, I looked it up. When the Caps win Game 1 in a seven-game series…”

1984, second round: Caps 3 – Islanders 2… lost the series 4-1
1987, first round: Caps 4 – Islanders 3… lost the series, 4-3
1988, second round: Caps 3 – Devils 1… lost the series, 4-3
1989, first round: Caps 3 – Flyers 2… lost the series, 4-2
1990, first round: Caps 5 – Devils 4… Caps won the series, 4-2
1991, second round: Caps 4 – Penguins 2… lost the series, 4-1
1992, first round: Caps 3 – Penguins 1… lost the series, 4-3
1993, first round: Caps 3 – Islanders 1… lost the series 4-2
1994, first round: Caps 5 – Penguins 3… Caps won the series, 4-2
1995, first round: Caps 5 – Penguins 4… lost the series, 4-3
1996, first round: Caps 6 – Penguins 4… lost the series, 4-2
1998, first round: Caps 3 – Bruins 1… Caps won the series, 4-2
1998, second round: Caps 4 – Senators 2…Caps won the series, 4-1
2001, first round: Caps 1 – Penguins 0… lost the series, 4-2
2003, first round: Caps 3 – Lightning 0… lost the series 4-2
2008, first round: Caps 5 – Flyers 4… lost the series, 4-3
2009, second round: Caps 3 – Penguins 2… lost the series, 4-3

Well, gee, Cheerless…aren’t YOU living up to your name this morning?

“Just tellin’ it like it is, cuz. You know how Caps fans are… we only see the poop, not the puppy.”

Well, Cheerless, you know what today is, don’t you?

“Uh, Friday?”

Yeah, and…

“Uhhhhhhhhhhhh…”

Emancipation Day!

“E-what?”

Well, actually it would be tomorrow, April 16th, but since tomorrow is Saturday, we celebrate it today.

“You got a point or just fishin’ cuz?”

The date on which President Lincoln signed the Compensated Emancipation Act, freeing slaves in the District of Columbia.

“And this has to do with hockey...how?”

It’s the chance for us Caps fans to free ourselves of this negative thinking, cousin.

“Uh-huh…how long you been a Caps fan, cuz?”

…ugh.

Well, the Caps can go a long way to sponging away the trepidation their fans bring to this time of year when they take the ice against the New York Rangers tonight. In Game 1, the Caps out shot (33-25), out-attempted (80-65), out-hit (35-30), out-shot blocked (32-28), and out-face-off’ed (43-37) the Rangers in a 2-1 overtime win on Wednesday. If not for a couple of unfortunate ricochets off the crossbar, the game might have been settled earlier than the 11 o’clock hour (10:51, actually).

Now the object is to do it again.

With only one game in the books, this series doesn’t have much of a personality just yet, but one might look at a game played so close and so close to the vest and wonder what might change in Game 2. Most of those changes, as you might expect, might have to come from the visitors…

-- "25" The Rangers managed only 25 shots on a goalie playing in his first NHL playoff game. They had more shots blocked (32) than they had on net. The Rangers have to make Michal Neuvirth work more.  The Caps have done a fine job so far in limiting those opportunities.

-- "0" Chris Drury is coming back from an injury, and he is for the moment pretty much limited to fourth line duty. But the Rangers really don’t have so many offensive options that they can afford to have him go almost 64 minutes with no shot attempts, as he did on Wednesday.

-- "35" Part of Brandon Dubinsky’s game is doing a lot of the little things effectively. He has to do better than 35 percent on draws (7-for-20 on Wednesday).

-- "16" Does Sean Avery get to don his “16” sweater for this game? That’s the two-edged sword. He could give the Rangers some bite in their lineup, but his antics could bit them in the ass, too.

-- "1" The Rangers had one shot on two power plays in Game 1. Keep that up, and they’ll have to do all their scoring at even strength.

-- "5" Henrik Lundqvist might have allowed only two goals on 33 shots in Game 1, but he can thank his stars for two missed shots – two that hit the crossbar less than 20 seconds apart – for not getting behind early. Part of his problem, if it is one, is that he seemed tethered to no more than five feet from his goal line. His style is a bit unconventional (half butterfly, half old-school), and he tends to play deep anyway. But the Caps had a lot of great opportunities – the two crossbars, a couple of open net looks on cross-ice feeds – that he might have had trouble with playing as deep as he does.

As for the Caps, the biggest takeaway from Game 1, and the thing to watch for in Game 2, is the fact that they did not get frustrated in Game 1 over a scoreless game through more than 40 minutes, nor did they get frustrated when the Rangers got the game’s first goal in the third period. How they played suggested that the makeover to a defensively responsible style was not a regular season thing, only. The Caps trusted their system, plugged away, and ground out a win.

Perhaps they were emancipated from any lingering doubts about whether this works.

Maybe it’s time to emancipate the Rangers of any further hope of winning this series by taking their game and shoving it right back in their faces.

“Cuz, maybe you should be emancipated from ever using the word ‘emancipated’ anymore.”

Don't you have some puppy poop to clean up?


Caps 3 – Rangers 1

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 1: Capitals 2 - Rangers 1 (OT)

“The first cut is the deepest.”

The Washington Capitals drew first blood against the New York Rangers in their first round playoff matchup, taking a 2-1 overtime decision when Alexander Semin rifled a one-timer past the blocker of Ranger goaltender Henrik Lundqvist 18:24 into overtime. A lot of little things happened to make that goal happen, the kinds of things a team not paying attention to detail doesn’t do. There was Brooks Laich chasing the puck down at the side boards and feeding back to Mike Green at the Rangers’ blue line. From there Green tried to get it deep, but it was blocked down by the Rangers’ Brandon Dubinsky. Jason Arnott made sure Chris Drury couldn’t get the puck out, and the biscuit trickled down to Marc Staal. But Laich circled back into the zone and pressured Staal into a bad clear that Arnott flagged down as he was hugging the boards to prevent the clear. While Laich and Arnott were doing the dirty work along the right wing boards, Alexander Semin circled back from the right wing circle into a void high between the circles. He had an open look when Arnott found him with a pass.  Dan Girardi could not get a stick on Semin’s shot, and Semin had enough of an opening to find the back of the net past Lundqvist’s blocker.

That was the pretty goal of the pair. The ugly one – or the “junk” goal, as Semin described in in the post game – was a case of getting greasy, crowding Lundqvist, and jabbing at the puck until it found the thinnest of holes to squeak over the line. It was Alex Ovechkin doing the jabbing after he carried the puck in on Lundqvist and lost it, fortunately to a spot where Semin could at least get the puck into Lundqvist’s pads to force him to freeze the puck. Lundqvist did not, Ovechkin jabbed, and the Cap had their first goal of the playoffs.

It tied the game because the Rangers got the game’s first marker when Brandon Prust outdueled John Erskine for a puck near the Olympia entrance to the ice and fed Wojtek Wolski behind the net.  From there Wolski found Matt Gilroy steaming down the middle to rip a one timer past Caps goalie Michal Neuvirth. But that would be all the Rangers would get, as Neuvirth stopped 24 of 25 shots in his NHL playoff debut.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps certainly had their chances. Semin hit a crossbar. Arnott hit almost the identical spot on the crossbar moments later, neither puck going in. Nicklas Backstrom had a clean breakaway and was foiled by Lundqvist when Backstrom tried to slide a change of pace backhander through the five hole. Marcus Johansson looked as if he had a wide open net to shoot at and was stopped. Ovechkin broke clean on the left side, but whiffed on a wrist shot when he had Lundqvist down. And all that was in the first two periods. All that accomplished was letting Lundavist off the hook on a night when it looked as if the Caps found holes in his defense.

-- It is really simple what each team wants to do in this series. The Caps want to get pucks to the net, crash, and stuff garbage into the pail. They got a goal that way. But they didn’t do it nearly enough. At the other end, the Rangers want to work behind the goal line, force the Caps to keep their backs to what is going on out front, and find guys open for one timers or put backs. They got a goal that way. On balance, we thought the Rangers were more consistent playing their game than were the Caps.

-- Someday, Marcus Johansson is going to be able to win battles along the boards. The years will add bulk and maturity. But tonight, he looked to be getting pushed around pretty good. But one thing he is doing now that he was not early in the year is carry the puck with authority. He looks as if he is following the arc of Nicklas Backstrom in that regard.

-- I find Brandon Dubinsky a prickly little sh*t that I’d like to plant in the ice. And I wish he was a Cap.

-- If Marian Gaborik has to produce for the Rangers to win this series, he will never get a better chance than he had in this one when Brian Boyle (again, working below the goal line) found him in front, 12 feet in front of Michal Neuvirth with no one around him for 15 feet in any direction. And he shot it right into Neuvirth’s midsection. He scores there, we’re writing a whole other narrative this morning.

-- We talk of “Good Sasha, Bad Sasha” with respect to Alexander Semin. And it was on display tonight – an offensive zone hooking penalty, an assist, and the game-winning goal (“SashaTrick!”...and don’t forget the exclamation point). But “Good Alex, Bad Alex” was on display, too.  Ovechkin got that junk goal to tie the game, then almost gave it back less than two minutes later when he took a run at Brandon Prust and missed just enough not to kill him, but hitting him enough to knock him off his pins and draw a roughing penalty.

-- John Carlson looked like he was wired on Red Bull and espresso. We lost count of how many times he either exploded out of the defensive zone to get the puck moving up ice, or darted into the offensive zone with the puck to lead the rush.

-- Speaking of defense…eight blocked shots. Take a bow, Scott Hannan, if you’re not too sore to do so.

-- And Jeff Schultz had six blocks…it didn’t manage to shut the moron up sitting behind us who kept shouting, “hit him, Schultz, ya sissy!” Hey, did the Rangers score when he was on the ice? No…his defense was just fine.

-- And speaking of blocks, the Rangers had the reputation coming into this series as a team that would pay any price to keep pucks from getting through to Henrik Lundqvist. But it was the Caps who had 32 blocked shots to the Rangers’ 28.

-- Something that might have been lost in the first goal scored by Ovechkin. As he was going to the net, he planted defenseman Dan Girardi like a tulip bulb in front of Lundqvist, taking him out of the play.

-- You might have though Mike Green would get 14-16 minutes tonight, no PK time, and some time on the power play. When he was paired with John Erskine, that looked like the plan. Green finished the night with 26:30 in ice time, and that was without any PK time at all. Four SOGs, four blocked shots, and an assist to go with a plus-1. Nice return.

-- We liked that the Caps had four shots on two power plays. We weren’t as happy that two came from Marco Sturm and the other two from Mike Green. Got to get chances from in close.

-- Liked that the Caps allowed only one SOG on the two power plays they allowed.

-- For what it’s worth, Michal Neuvirth was the only rookie goalie to win tonight. OK, there was only one other (Chicago’s Corey Crawford lost in Vancouver). Neuvirth might have had a more difficult variety of shots faced than did Lundqvist, and he handled himself with spooky calm.

In the end, it is said that for the Rangers to win Henrik Lundqvist has to be their best player. He was that tonight, but he sure looked beaten and beatable on a lot of shots in the first period. Posts saved him twice, and bad stickhandling by the Caps seemed to help him as the Caps lost chances to put quality shots on net. He did have a few sparkling saves, but despite the impressive results (31 saves on 33 shots faced) he’s going to have to “play” better for the Rangers to win.

On the other hand, the Caps cannot allow the Rangers to work their magic below the goal line so persistently and for so many seconds on a possession. They will find someone open if given enough opportunities.

A win is a good thing, but don’t get all fat and happy, Caps fans. In franchise history, the Caps are 4-13 in seven-game series when winning Game 1. Much work remains in this series, and as we all know…

The object is not to win 16 games, but to win one game…16 times.