Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

Theme: "Life is all memory, except for the one present moment that goes by you so quickly you hardly catch it going."

-- Tennessee Williams

Alex Ovechkin has three 50-goal seasons and another season in which he topped 60 goals. He has a Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.  He has three Ted Lindsay Awards as the league’s outstanding player.  He has two Hart Memorial Trophies as the league’s most valuable player and two Maurice Richard Trophies as the league’s top goal-scorer.  He has an Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top point producer.  He has a gold medal as a champion in the IIHF World Championship.  He has been awarded a key to the city by the Mayor of Washington, D.C., and he has been named an ambassador for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia.  He is a five-time winner of the Kharlamov Trophy sponsored by Sovietsky Sport and awarded to the most valuable Russian NHL player.  He is a five-time first team NHL All-Star Team selection.

He also has accomplished none of that since 2010.

In 2010-2011 Ovechkin totaled 32 goals, behind the likes of Brenden Morrow, Michael Grabner, and Patrick Sharp.  In 2011-2012 he was 38-27-65, a line that looked a lot like Max Pacioretty (33-32-65) or Radim Vrbata (35-27-62).

Alex Ovechkin had become an “also-ran.”

That might be a bit unfair, considering that only four players have scored more goals combined over the past two seasons than Ovechkin (Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry, Jarome Iginla, and Daniel Sedin).  But then again, this is a player who lapped the field over his first five seasons, scoring 269 total goals to 230 for his closest competitor, Ilya Kovalchuk.

His performance over the last two seasons is an indicator of how high Ovechkin once soared, though.  Any conversation in his first five years in the league about the best players in the game included his name.  In fact, it was largely a conversation limited to his name and that of Sidney Crosby.  He averaged 53.8 goals per season.  Only two players had single seasons of at least that many (Jonathan Cheechoo, with 56 in 2005-2006; and Jaromir Jagr, with 54 in the same year).  There were 14 instances of 50 goal scorers in that five year span; Ovechkin did it four times.  Dany Heatley and Ilya Kovalchuk were the only ones who managed to do it twice.  There were 355 hat tricks over that period of time. Ovechkin had nine of them; only Carolina’s Eric Staal had more (10).  There were 16 instances of players scoring four or more goals in a game; Ovechkin was the only player to do it twice.

However, over the past two seasons covering 157 games, Ovechkin has but 12 multi-goal games and one hat trick (no hat tricks in 2011-2012).  He is not included in any conversation about the game’s top player, and Steven Stamkos has passed him by as the game’s dominant goal scorer.

Even in the playoffs, where he lifted his game, time has taken a toll on Ovechkin.  In his first three playoff appearances through the 2010 post season, Ovechkin was 20-20-40, plus-14 in 28 games (an eye-popping 59-59-118, plus-41 line per 82 games).  In his last two post seasons he is 10-9-19, minus-3 in 23 games, a respectable 36-32-68, minus-11 over an 82-game pace, but not close to his performance level in his first three post seasons.  His five goals last spring in 14 games looked a lot like Antoine Vermette’s five goals in 16 games.

From being a category of player unto himself, Ovechkin was now one of many players you could call “good,” even “very good.”  Just not among the best in the game.

Fearless’ Take…

Scoring goals at a 41-goal pace in the 60 games he played under Dale Hunter last season qualifies as no mean accomplishment.  Only Evgeni Malkin and Steven Stamkos scored goals at a faster pace.  And if he maintained his 12.0 shooting percentage for the year while taking his career season average in shots (421) instead of the 303 he took, he would have finished with 50 goals.  He did all this while playing the fewest average minutes per game in his seven-year career (19:48).

Cheerless’ Take…

Home cookin’ ain’t what it used to be, cuz.  Ove his first five years, Ovechkin was really somethin’ at Verizon Center.  He averaged 28-30-58, plus-11 per 41 games of a home season.  Year before last he was 18-25-43 in 41 games at home, and last year he was 16-16-32, plus-3 in 40 games.  Last season he had more multi-goal games on the road (five) than he had at home (three), and only one of the three multi-goal games he had at home came against a team that made the playoffs (Florida).

The Big Question… What does Alex Ovechkin have left?

That goal scorers enjoy their best years before the age of 27 is not exactly news.  But the difference between Alex Ovechkin of his first five seasons and the player he has been these last two seasons is considerable.  Ovechkin has never been an especially efficient shooter.  Even in the year in which he scored 65 goals he finished only in a tie for 46th in shooting percentage.  He did, as they say, a volume business in shots.  While he finished sixth among forwards in shots on goal last season, his total of 303 was 30 percent fewer than what he averaged over his first five years (432).  The matter of whether Ovechkin has more 40- or even 50-goal seasons left in him might come down to whether his drop in production is due to his being used differently by coaches, depressing his shot opportunities and shot totals, or to the fact that he can no longer get shots off from his preferred shooting areas.

In the end…

As Ovechkin goes, so go the Caps.  Last season he had 27 goals in the Caps’ 41 wins, only 11 in 37 losses.  He had power play goals in 13 games last season; the Caps had ten wins in those 13 games.  He might be at a point in his career where winning will mean more than sheer numbers, and if the Caps are going to be a reliably sound contender, one would think that the goals he loses from those early career years would be picked up, and then some, by teammates.  But Ovechkin remains “the straw that stirs the drink.”

He does not have to be a 50-goal scorer at this point in his career, but he does have to be productive.  As much as that production is important on the scoreboard, it is important for its less tangible effects.  An unhappy Ovie scoring three goals in 12 games (not to mention going minus-7) after being benched by Bruce Boudreau at the end of a one-goal game against Anaheim last November 1st is what leads to a 4-7-1 record and the coach getting fired.  The happier version seems to rub off more positively with his teammates, and goal-scoring still seems to make him happiest of all.

The fear here, especially with this season in jeopardy of being lost in its entirety, is that the “moment” for Ovechkin is passing, if it has not already passed.  Cal Ripken played in a World Series at age 22 and never made it back.  Dan Marino made it to a Super Bowl as a 23 year old and never returned. Being among the greats is no guarantee of a championship, and if you don’t realize that dream early, it does not mean your odds improve with age.

Projection:   80 games, 39-47-86, plus-18   

Photo: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Previews -- Forwards: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich

Theme…

Britt Reid: You know what you are. You're a human Swiss army knife.

Kato: I don't know what's that mean?

Britt Reid: It's a little thing, and you keep pulling out things, and just when you think there couldn't be any more cool things, a new cool thing comes out, and that's you! You are even dressed like one. You should have a little plus on your chest.

-- from “The Green Hornet”

You are a player that can be an effective defensive forward on the third line.  You can do the dirty work and chip in some offense on the second line.  In a pinch you can center the first line.  And if things get really bad, you can take a shift or two on defense.  You might not be the Green Hornet’s masked partner, Kato, but you are versatile enough and valuable enough as a hockey player to be signed to a six-year/$27 million contract by the Capitals in June 2011.

He is not a top-line scorer.  He is not likely to be a Selke Trophy candidate for his defense.  He is not the playmaker Nicklas Backstrom is.  But Brooks Laich is as versatile as any player in the NHL.  For his first five seasons with the Caps he was also among the steadiest in terms of continuous improvement, jumping from seven goals in 73 games in 2005-2006 to 25 goals in 78 games in 2009-2010.  His power play contributions were equally impressive, jumping from one power play goal in 2005-2006 to a dozen in 2009-2010.

However, in 2010-2011 Laich’s production dropped to 16 goals (four on the power play) and 16 again last season (five with the man advantage).  It was not a matter of shots, either.  In the three seasons in which he posted more than 20 goals – 2007-2008 through 2009-2010 – he averaged 176 shots on goal.  Last season he had 191 shots on goal.  His problem is that in those three 20-plus goal season he shot a combined 13.0 percent.  Over the last two years, that efficiency dropped to a combined 8.0 percent (8.4 percent last season).

The 2011-2012 season marked a step back for Laich, not only in absolute terms in several categories (down in assists, total points, plus-minus, shots) but in relation to his teammates.  For example, in 2010-2011 he ranked fourth on the team in total points but dropped to sixth last season.  Assists: dropped from third to sixth.  Plus-minus: dropped from fifth to a tie for 23^rd.  Game-winning goals: dropped from a tie for third to a tie for sixth.  Shots: second to third; time on ice: seventh to eighth. 

And it is not as if the lower rankings reflect a team improving around Laich.  The Caps’ scoring was essentially unchanged from 2010-2011 (2.67 goals/game) to 2011-2012 (2.66 goals/game).  Shots were down (31 to 28 per game); power play goals were down (46 to 41, season to season).

Fearless’ Take…

No Capital forward faced tougher competition last season at 5-on-5.  In fact, of all NHL forwards playing in at least 40 games, only ten of 368 forwards faced tougher competition (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  Only 16 of those 368 forwards had better Corsi values relative to quality of competition.  And 315 of those forwards had better offensive zone start numbers than Laich (43.1 percent).  One could make the case that whatever the reason for Laich’s depressed offensive numbers in 2010-2011, his “failure” to improve on them in 2011-2012 was a product of deployment decisions.

Cheerless’ Take…

Was deploying him into being on ice for 82 goals against part of the plan, cuz?  Only seven forwards in the league were on ice for more goals against, and none of them played for a playoff team.  And even though he was 7-6-13, plus-1 in 30 games against teams that made the Eastern Conference playoffs, 3-2-5, plus-6 of that was put up against Florida.  He was 4-4-8, minus-5 in 24 games against the other six playoff teams.  It carried over into the playoffs.  After he was 1-2-3, plus-1 in Game 3 against Boston (a game the Caps lost, by the way, 4-3) he went 1-3-4, minus-1 in his last 11 playoff games.

The Big Question… What will his role be under new head coach Adam Oates?

It is precisely his versatility that makes this an interesting question.  He flourished at the offensive end under Bruce Boudreau, putting up 69 goals in 242 games over the 2007-2008 through 2009-2010 seasons.  Last year he started as part of a shutdown line – the “Meat and Potatoes” line with Joel Ward and Jason Chimera – but moved around the top three lines as circumstances (mostly injuries) dictated.  He can be (and was) deployed in a more defensive role; he can be deployed as a power play specialist.  Concerning this latter point, the departure of Mike Knuble and Alexander Semin suggests Laich will get more opportunities here.  Consider that 41 of his 116 career goals have been scored on the power play.

In the end…

Brooks Laich is not going to “wow” anyone with one number.  He is not going to put up 35 goals or 80 points.  He is not going to rack up 200-plus hits (as Troy Brouwer has the past two years).  He will not finish the season plus-40.  He will, however, do a lot of things fairly well.  For example, last season he was credited with 52 takeaways but charged with only 31 giveaways.  That kind of turnover ratio (1.68:1) speaks to doing things the right way (only three Caps forwards among those playing in at least 40 games had better ratios).

Perhaps for a player such as Laich, the answer to the “big question” is “all of them.”   He could be a third-line shutdown center, a power play contributor, and a penalty killer.  You wonder if there are enough minutes for Laich to play all three roles on a night-to-night basis.  That might suggest averaging 20 or more minutes a night where he averaged 18:29 last season.  That result might not be in the cards, but it seems a sure bet that if a role needs playing or a hole needs to be filled, Laich’s versatility will come in handy, even if he doesn’t wear a little plus on his chest.

Projection: 82 games, 17-28-45, plus-7

photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Previews -- Forwards: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson

Theme:  “The reward of one duty is the power to fulfill another.”

-- George Eliot

When Marcus Johansson stepped onto the ice for his first shift of the 2011-2012 season he was centering a line that had Alexander Semin and Troy Brouwer on his wings.  After a promising rookie season in which he finished 13-14-27, plus-2 in 69 games (ranked in the top dozen rookie point getters among forwards that season), he was slotted on the second line.  It was a chance for the youngster to fill a role that was a problem for the Capitals for years, finding a reliable, productive second line center.

By the time the curtain came down on the regular season, and Johansson skated his last game and his last shift, he was centering Alex Ovechkin and Brooks Laich on his first shift and was out there with Ovechkin on his last one.  In between Nicklas Backstrom lost half a season to a concussion, and Johansson found himself in this situation, a promotion by necessity.

Although Johansson would finish the 2011-2012 regular season as the Caps’ third leading scorer (tied with Dennis Wideman with 46 points), his logging heavy minutes as the Caps’ top line center while Nicklas Backstrom was missing time following his concussion was a bit too much.  Johansson played in 43 games after Backstrom left the lineup to close the season, going 7-17-24, minus-4.  He was 2-10-12, minus-5 in his last 20 games.  When you consider that when he left the lineup Backstrom was 13-29-42 in 38 games (a 28-63-91 pace over 82 games), Johansson did not provide the production the Caps needed from their top line center when he was occupying that spot.

That is an unfair comparison to make, of course.  Marcus Johansson is not Nicklas Backstrom at this point in his career.  But one could not help but think Johansson’s sophomore season was a bit of a disappointment.  The optics of his season did not look impressive; he seemed more tentative and less dynamic in his performance, especially as the season went on.  But there is a number that sticks out:

“17.1”

Although Johansson ramped up his point-production, his play at the other end left something to be desired.  In his rookie season he was on ice for 40 goals in 1,016 minutes of total ice time, or 2.36 goals per 60 minutes of ice time.  In 2011-2012 that goals on-ice number jumped to 62 goals in 1,344 minutes of ice time, or 2.77 goals per 60 minutes of ice time, a 17.1 percent jump.  On a team that played with a “defense-first” philosophy under Dale Hunter, that is a disappointing number.

Fearless’ Take…

Johansson finished in a tie for 11th in points among rookie forwards in 2011-2012.  Of the 13 rookie forwards who finished with as many or more points than Johansson in his rookie season, do you know how many of them finished with more points than Johansson in his sophomore season?  Five: Logan Couture, Derek Stepan, Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, and Brad Marchand.  Know how many of that rookie crop improved his point total more than the plus-19 from Johansson?

One… Eberle (plus-33).

One can make too much of this “disappointment” notion.

Cheerless’ Take…

Cuz, I’m not the sharpest ax in the shed, but I know that the game is played at both ends.  Look at that “tens” thing Peerless did for Johansson.  He was a minus-8 in his last 32 games, and he was a minus-6 in 14 playoff games.  He was on ice for more goals against than any Caps forward in the playoffs (13 of the 30 goals scored against the Caps), and no Caps skater was on for more (he was tied with defenseman Dennis Wideman).

The Big Question… Can Johansson use the hard lessons learned in 2011-2012 to become a solid second line contributor in the 2012-2013 season?

Consider this.  At the 18:30 mark of the third period of Game 7 last spring against the New York Rangers, with the Caps down a goal, Marcus Johansson took the ice for his last shift of the season.  He did not do it as a center.  He was playing right wing to Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin on the left side.  When play was stopped at the 19:20 mark on an offside call, the Caps had not registered a shot attempt on that shift.  Johansson skated to the bench in favor of Brooks Laich to take the ensuing faceoff.  Was that last shift something symbolic?  Something meaningful with respect to Johansson’s season?

Not in an obvious way, perhaps, but it did suggest that after 96 games (82 in the regular season and 14 in the playoffs) Johansson had not come as far as one might have hoped.  But that was in no small way a product of being thrust into a role that was outside his comfort level, given the state of his development.  He just was not ready to be a first-line center, and in the end was given a wing slot when things were most desperate for the team.  It was not a demotion by any means, but it was the sort of sideways movement that seemed to be his season.  The opportunity that results is that Johansson had a lot thrown at him in his sophomore season, and it might have been a blessing if he can take some of what he learned from that back to being a second-line center.

In the end…

Marcus Johansson will not be the second-line center for the Capitals this season unless misfortune strikes the club.  Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Ribeiro have the first and second spots marked in pen.  But Johansson will be only 22 years old on the scheduled opening night.  If one looks at the long term, he could be that second line center.  Why?  Well, if you peer through the rose-colored glasses of memory, his game can resemble that of a countryman who played for this franchise in the 1980’s.

Johansson can be a 15-20 goal scorer, a 50-55 point producer, a solid two-way presence who does the right things the right way.  If you account for the different nature of the games in the 1980’s and the 20-teens, what you might see through those glasses in Marcus Johansson is Bengt Gustafsson.  And if taking on the duties of a first line center last season allows him to be a “Gustafsson” type of player on the second line in the future, it will have been worth the hard lessons learned.

Projection: 81 games, 14-27-41, plus-2

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Previews -- Forwards: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks

Theme:  “I really believe that everyone has a talent, ability, or skill that he can mine to support himself and to succeed in life.”

-- Dean Koontz

If age 30 is in your rear-view mirror, and you have only 137 games of NHL experience on your resume (fewer than two full year’s worth of games), it helps to have a special skill in your pocket that sets you apart from other players.

And that brings us to Matt Hendricks.  Going into the 2011-2012 season Hendricks had just celebrated his 30^th birthday, and he had only those 137 games of experience with 18 goals and 41 points to go along with them.  He made himself a fan favorite with the Caps with his utter fearlessness in taking on opponents when they thought they could take liberties with teammates.  His 12 fighting majors in the 2010-2011 season tied him for 12^th in the league.  It made it a difficult way to make a living for a guy topping out at six-feet in height and a shade over 200 pounds. 

But in the 2011-2012 season, Hendricks found another way to make fans cheer.  Of all NHL players with at least three attempts in The Gimmick, Hendricks tied Ottawa’s Daniel Alfredsson for the highest shooting percentage (83.3 percent).  That’s right, a grinder in 65 minutes of hockey who was last among 13 Caps forwards last season in goals scored for-on ice per 60 minutes turned into Mike Bossy… well, maybe that’s a bit much … in The Gimmick. 

Hendricks became so adept at making goalies look foolish in Bettman’s Folly that Caps TV analyst Craig Lauchlin gave Hendricks’ signature move its own name, “The Paralyzer.”   It was a move Hendricks picked up as a high-schooler.  Caps fans paying close attention might have gotten a clue that this skill would be a feature of Hendricks’ game when he tied for the team lead in shootout attempts (five) in his only season in Hershey in 2006-2007.

He brought “The Paralyzer” to the NHL and might have found its high point when he deked former Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas into the ice in a March 29, 2012 game in Boston against the Bruins.  But Thomas was not the only goalie victimized.  Dwayne Roloson, Evgeni Nabokov, Ilya Bryzgalov, and Peter Budaj were the other four goalies paralyzed by Hendricks.  Only Johan Hedberg stopped Hendricks in a 3-2 Gimmick win posted by the New Jersey Devils back in November.  Overall the Caps were 4-2 in games in which Hendricks attempted a trick shot (4-1 when he scored, losing only to Philadelphia), 0-2 when he was held off the ice.  Hendricks scoring in the après-hockey round and the Caps winning when he did was as reliable an occurrence as anything the Caps had last season.

Fearless’ Take…

Back to hockey for a moment.  Matt Hendricks was one of a quartet of Caps who finished the regular season with a rather impressive Corsi value relative to quality of competition at 5-on-5.  Only Brooks Laich, Troy Brouwer, and Jason Chimera were better.  And of this group only Laich had a lower offensive zone start value (43.1 percent to 44.2 percent.  In fact, only Laich, Jay Beagle, and Jeff Halpern had lower shares of offensive zone starts among the 13 Caps forwards in this group.  And, of those 13 Caps forwards, only Halpern, Beagle and Joel Ward had fewer goals scored against-on ice/60 minutes at 5-on-5.  One could explain this away by saying that Hendricks was, by and large, a fourth liner, but he finished in the middle of the pack (seventh) in quality of competition faced at 5-on-5 (numbers from behindthenet.ca). 

Cheerless’ Take…

Hendricks had the kind of offensive consistency that the Caps did not need.  In the regular season he was 4-5-9 in 78 games.  In the playoffs he was 1-1-2 in 14 games, about the same rate of scoring, which is to say "not much."  Although Hendricks is not a big scorer, his four goals and nine points for the regular season was by far the lowest in each category for him in his three full seasons in the league.  And, in the regular season Hendricks was 1-2-3, minus-6 in 28 games against teams that qualified for the Eastern Conference side of the playoffs.  Overall he was one of many on the third and fourth lines who struggled in making contributions on offense.

The Big Question… Can Matt Hendricks translate some of his “paralyzer” game to the 60-minute portion of the game?

As Matt Hendricks enters his fourth full season his offensive production shows a somewhat concerning trend: nine goals in 56 games in 2009-2010 (a 13-goal pace per 82 games), nine in 77 in 2010-2011 (10), and four in 78 games last season (four).  And this trend comes in spite of his getting progressively more ice time (9:16/game three seasons ago to 11:28 in 2010-2011 to 12:07 last season).  Part of the problem might be that Hendricks’ offensive zone starts dropped from 51.7 percent in 2010-2011 to 44.2 percent last season.  Still a 4.1 percent shooting percentage is not something that can be sustained, even from a fourth line forward.  That shooting percentage was 449^th among 597 forwards dressing in the NHL last season.  Only 22 forwards playing more than half their team’s games had lower shooting percentages.  That 4.1 shooting percentage would have ranked Hendricks only 131^st among defensemen in the NHL last season.

In the end…

The Caps are not expecting Matt Hendricks to be a scorer.  If he gets 10-15 points, that is probably sufficient on a team with some of the considerable weapons the Caps can use.  His forte is grit, an ability to get under the skin of opponents (he tied for the team lead in penalties drawn at 5-on-5 per 60 minutes last season), and an ability to play adequate defense.  Perhaps the drop in offensive production last season was a reflection of the style of hockey the Caps played under head coach Dale Hunter.  In a more cautious system, having the third and fourth liners taking risks is not part of the portfolio.  One could certainly come away with that watching Hendricks’ offense finding its expression in the Gimmick.  Perhaps this season he will find a little of that flair under a new head coach, although if Adam Oates can return some of his teammates to their accustomed level of success, Hendricks can be the pain in the backside – and “The Paralyzer” – that makes him a fan favorite.

Projection: 76 games, 4-4-8, minus-1

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Previews -- Forwards: Joey Crabb

Joey Crabb

Theme:  “If you do not expect the unexpected you will not find it, for it is not to be reached by search or trail.”

-- Heraclitus

For a player such as Alex Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby, the path to stardom does not take many twists or turns or wrong exits.  You are branded a phenom, you are expected to be a high draft pick, you are selected first overall and pose with the Commissioner, and you go forth and put up a lot of big numbers.  For the Joey Crabb’s of the world, the path is not so straight, nor so true.

Crabb was taken in the seventh round of the 2002 draft by the New York Rangers.  He went on to a four-year career at Colorado College where he recorded 53 goals in 158 regular season games.  It was not enough to put him on a path to fame in Manhattan; he was signed as an unrestricted free agent by the Atlanta Thrashers just before the 2006-2007 season.  He would spend most of his time in the Thrasher organization toiling for the Chicago Wolves. 

In 256 games with the Wolves Crabb posted progressively higher goal totals: 7, 9, 15, then 24 in the 2009-2010 season.  But he could not crack the Thrasher lineup on a consistent basis, dressing for only 29 games in the 2008-2009 season, recording four goals and nine points.

On to Toronto.  Crabb signed with the Maple Leafs as a free agent in July 2010, where he was…assigned to the AHL Marlies.  But here Crabb’s career started to get some traction.  He was recalled to the Maple Leafs at the end of November 2010 for a brief stay, and again at the end of December.  He stuck with the big club through the end of the season, finishing 3-12-15 in 48 games. 

It got him a new one-year contract with Toronto for the 2011-2012 season.  But again, the career path took a turn.  Just before the regular season he was placed on waivers, the intent being to return him to the Marlies.  Crabb cleared waivers and went down to the AHL where he spent nine games before being called up to the Leafs for good on the first day of November.  Crabb dressed for 67 games with the Leafs in 2011-2012 and posted a very respectable 11-15-26, plus-1 line for a team that finished among the league’s also-rans (35 wins, 80 points).  The Capitals saw something in that result, signing Crabb to a one-year deal for $950,000 this past July. 

Fearless’ Take…

Joey Crabb got something of a late start, his having only 144 games of NHL experience at age 29.  But he has shown some unexpected ability as a goal scorer.  He is probably not going to be a 20-goal scorer in his career, but he does average 10 goals per 82 games so far in his limited NHL experience.  When you consider what the Caps got from their third and fourth line wingers last season, ten goals doesn’t sound too bad.  Then there are the other numbers.  Crabb did a fair job of drawing penalties, more of them drawn per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 than the likes of Mikhail Grabovski, Tim Connolly, or Phil Kessel last year in Toronto.  He also did better in this regard than Alexander Semin, Brooks Laich, or Nicklas Backstrom for the Caps.  And even though his Corsi value relative to quality of competition at 5-on-5 was 10th among 12 Leaf forwards playing in at least 40 games, his offensive zone start values were not an advantage (43.1 percent).

Cheerless’ Take…

You forgot one transaction in that long and winding road, cousin.  In June 2010 Atlanta traded him to Chicago as part of that big salary dump the Blackhawks made after they won the Cup.  Of the five players the Blackhawks got in that deal or drafted with the picks they got, you know how many games those players have actually played with the Blackhawks?  Twelve.  And Crabb doesn’t have any of them (all of them played by Jeremy Morin).  Less than a month after that trade, he was signed by Toronto.  Let’s not make him the second coming of Pat Verbeek or Andrew Brunette (identified as comparables over their first three years by the folks at hockey-reference.com).

The Big Question… Can Crabb firm up that soft underbelly that has been the Caps’ third and fourth lines too often over the past few years?

Last season, if you look at the bottom half of the forward draw for the Caps, the quintet of Joel Ward, Mike Knuble, Jeff Halpern, Matt Hendricks, and Jay Beagle recorded a total of 24 goals in 333 man-games, a six-goal pace per 82 games.  Crabb had 11 goals in 67 games last season in Toronto getting 13:26 a game (that was more average ice time than any of the Caps we mentioned except Knuble).  But scoring more does not really help much if you are on the ice for a lot of goals against.  Of Toronto forwards playing in at least 40 games last season, only Matt Frattin and Mike Brown were on ice for fewer even strength goals against; he was also third best among that group in terms of goals against/60 minutes at 5-on-5 (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

In the end…

Let us do a simple comparison.  Player A played in 57 games last season and was 11-15-26, plus-1.  Player B played in 67 games and was 11-15-26, plus-1.  Player A was 6-13-19 at even strength; Player B was 9-15-24 at even strength.  If you followed along to this point, you know that Player B is Joey Crabb, the one who played in those 67 games.  Who is Player A?  Dallas’ Brenden Morrow.  We are not going to argue that Joey Crabb and Brenden Morrow are interchangeable players, especially considering that Morrow’s season was interrupted by a neck injury.  On the other hand, Crabb might not be player merely filling a jersey for a dozen minutes a night, either.  His path has taken a long and winding course to Washington, and while he is here he might provide some unexpected, if certainly welcome contributions.

Projection: 62 games, 9-12-21, plus-3

Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images North America

Right Church, Wrong Pew

Last night the National Football League welcomed, if that is the right term, their "official" officials back to the gridiron after a three-week hiatus in the regular season during which games were officiated by make-shift crews of replacement referees culled from the ranks of Division II and Division III college ranks.

These replacement referees have been fodder for humorists and the object of scorn among radio talk show hosts.  Fans have been in full-throated anger at some of the calls, the low point of them coming when the end of the Seattle Seahwaks/Green Bay Packers game on Monday night unfolded in chaos and from which the term "simultaneous possession" became a more popular debating point across the land than which Presidential candidate had a better grasp of economic policy.

The jokes, the scorn, the anger -- the booing -- missed the point.  Fans, those referees were not the game's problem, and they were not deserving of the abuse.  They were hired into a difficult situation to do a job for which they were ill-prepared.  Even Roger Goodell, the Commissioner of the NFL, does not deserve any extraordinary rage.  Goodell, who has mastered the art of being able to tell whoppers with a straight face, straining mightily to make the case that the botched call in Seattle on Monday night might have moved things along some, but was not all that important, is merely a mouthpiece.

The folks behind this lockout of game officials are the same ones behind the lockout of players of the National Hockey League.  They are the ones hiding behind their hired guns in the Commissioner's office.  Even if you think that there should be give and take on both sides of labor negotiations, only one party can "lock out" its labor.  And it is becoming, not a last resort sort of measure, but the default position for these people.

Sports franchises have always been businesses, but there was also a sense that they were a public trust, the basis of a covenant with communities and fans, sharing a common goal of pursuing and rooting for championships.  No more.  Franchises are no more than assets with value and that generate income.  And if improving the bottom line means locking out referees for amounts that represent rounding error on a balance sheet, or locking out players to squeeze a little more out of them on top of what was obtained the last time they were locked out, so be it.

The referees aren't the problem.  The players aren't the problem.  The Commissioners aren't the problem. 

The problem is in the owners suites.  You want to boo some one, boo them.

Washington Capitals 2012-2013 Previews -- Forwards: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera

Theme: “Twice and thrice over, as they say, good is it to repeat and review what is good.”

-- Plato

In the years following Lockout I, Jason Chimera was one of those NHL players who cobbled together a solid, if unspectacular resume, recording seasons in which he would play 15 minutes a night as a forward for the Columbus Blue Jackets, his goal totals settling in the mid-teens.  He was a complementary player to the more talented likes of Rick Nash or Nikolai Zherdev. 

In the last week of December 2009, however, he was loosed from the bounds of mediocrity that was the Blue Jackets, and he was traded to the Capitals for Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina.  In one way his performance was unchanged (17 points in 39 games with Columbus, 17 points in 39 games with the Caps), but in another it was the difference between an early summer and a less early summer.  He was minus-7 with Columbus, plus-6 with the Caps.  The difference was that he part of a better supporting cast.

When Chimera slipped a bit the following season – 2010-2011 (10-16-26, minus-10 in 81 games) -- one might have had him penciled in as a third-liner going into the 2011-2012 season.  In fact, that was the role he adopted as the season started, manning the left side on a line with Brooks Laich and Joel Ward, the “Meat and Potatoes” line.  It worked for Chimera in the early going, putting up three goals in the first two games and four in the first five.  But by November 1^st it was apparent that this trio was not driving play. 

Ward would spend significant minutes on the fourth line; Laich would move around as a product of his versatility and injuries, primarily to Nicklas Backstrom, which left a large hole in the middle.  Meanwhile,
Chimera was quietly putting together a career year.  He got off to a fast start with those four goals in his first five games and 11 in his first 26 games.  A 35-goal pace for a player whose career best to that point was 17 (in 2005-2006) was probably a bit much to hope for.  But while Chimera did slump some at mid-season (he had only five goals in his next 46 games), he closed strong with four goals in his last ten games to finish with a career high of 20 goals, third best on the Caps.  What is more, five of his goals were game-winners, and 12 of them either tied games or gave the Caps a lead. 

Fearless’ Take…

Take those numbers and couple them to the fact that he was one of only five Capital forwards averaging more than 50 seconds of both power play and penalty killing time a game, and he was a rather important player.  At 5-on-5 he had the third-best Corsi value relative to quality of competition among Caps forwards (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  Taken together, he was no longer just a complementary player, he was an important ingredient to success.

Cheerless’ Take…

Uh, cuz?  I’m no math whiz, but here are a few of them numbers you can chew on.  At 5-on-5 his goals-for/on ice per 60 minutes…2.37.  Goals-against/on ice per 60 minutes?  Yup…2.37.  Goals-for/off ice per 60 minutes… 2.32.  Goals against/off ice per 60 minutes…2.32.  If you want to argue that you want a player in his position (a third liner) “breaking even” on goals for and against, fine.  But it’s hard to see where the difference was made, despite the goals.

The Big Question… “New Normal” or do I hear a clock striking midnight?

In setting a career high in goals last season Jason Chimera did so without the benefit of shooting efficiency that was far outside his career norm.  Coming into the 2011-2012 season his career shooting percentage was 9.03.  He finished the season at 9.76 percent on 205 shots.  The shot total was also a career high and was more than 50 shots higher than what had been his average per 82 games over his career coming into the season (153). 

Here is the odd number in those shot statistics.  Chimera’s 10.4 shots per 60 minutes of total ice time was not far off Alex Ovechkin’s 11.8.  By way of further comparison, Alexander Semin was next at 8.5 shots per 60 minutes of total ice time.  If you are thinking 20 goals might be the “new normal” for Jason Chimera, then 200 shots is going to have to be the new normal for him.  If normal, it certainly would be new since he has not averaged more than 9.1 shots per 60 minutes of ice time in any season before last year.  Exclusive of last season he has averaged 8.1 shots per 60 minutes of ice time over his career.  If he reverts to 8.1 shots per 60 minutes and shoots at 9.03 percent (his career average before last season) over the same 1,184 minutes he had last season he will be back to 14 goals.  It is a long way around the barn to say that the answer to the question is all about shots on goal.

In the end…

It is nice that Jason Chimera had a career year.  It is nice that he is the second-leading goal scorer from last season returning to the Capitals (Alexander Semin’s 21 goals having gone to Carolina).  It is not necessarily nice that he be counted on to duplicate either of those outcomes.  It seems unlikely that he will: a) duplicate last season’s 205 shots on goal, or b) match last season’s 9.76 percent shooting percentage (the second would be more likely to happen than the first). 

Chimera has established himself as a reliable third-line contributor with something of a flair for the dramatic (he tied for the team-lead in game-winning goals last season, and four of his seven playoff goals are game-winners).  Getting 20 goals again would certainly be a bonus and certainly not unwelcome, but having Jason Chimera finish as the second or third leading goal scorer on this team with that total probably would leave the team realizing less than a hoped for level of success.

Projection: 79 games, 15-18-33, plus-3

Photo: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America