The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 21: Bruins at Capitals, March 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals spent last week locked up with teams that were banged up (Carolina), struggling (Winnipeg), or both (Philadelphia).  They will open this week against a team that is neither banged up, nor struggling.  The Boston Bruins come to town in ill humor, a team that has lost only three games in regulation, but having suffered one of those losses to their arch-rivals – the Montreal Canadiens – in their last outing.

The Bruins lost their top defenseman and captain – Zdeno Chara – for 17 minutes of that contest after having chosen to educate Montreal defenseman Alexei Emelin on the finer points of coming to the aid of a teammate, Tyler Seguin having been rudely cross-checked by Emelin at center ice only moments earlier.  Montreal used Chara’s absence to come from behind with a pair of goals to give Boston their first loss in regulation at home since January 31^st.

And now the Caps get an angry bunch of Bruins, looking to regain the top spot in the Northeast Division and in the Eastern Conference that they relinquished as a result of that loss to Montreal.  That loss to Montreal broke a six-game winning streak for the B’s, their longest of the season and their longest since peeling off a seven-game winning streak in late December last season.

In this most recent 6-1-0 stretch of games Boston outscored their opponents by a 23-13 margin.  That 1.86 goals-per-game scoring defense has been in part the product of a stout Boston defense, but it also has been due to some fine goaltending by Tuukka Rask.  The sixth-year pro is 5-1-0 in these last seven games for Boston with a 1.82 goals-against average and a .939 save percentage. 

The four goals Rask allowed in Sunday’s game against Montreal was just the fourth time in 15 appearances this season in which he allowed more than two goals.  Rask has not had much success against the Caps, though.  In three career appearances he is 0-2-1 with a 3.45 goals-against average and a .877 save percentage.

Brad Marchand, the “Little Ball of Player Everyone in the League Would Like to Smear on the Glass,” is the leading goal scorer for Boston in this 6-1-0 run.  He is 4-5-9 and has taken over the team lead in goals with 11.  His reputation for antics aside, he has gone without a point in only five of 18 games this season.  In ten career games against the Caps he is 3-4-7, plus-1.

Patrice Bergeron is the leading point-getter for the Bruins over these last seven games (3-8-11).  What he also brings to this game is a four-game streak in which he has won more than 60 percent of faceoffs taken.  He has 13 such games this season and is second in the league in faceoff winning percentage among players taking at least 100 draws (62.4 percent).

Here is how the two teams, uh… match up in their respective numbers:

1.  Thirteen different Bruins have goals in this 6-1-0 run, 17 have points.  The Bruins are not an especially extraordinary offensive team (eighth in scoring offense), but they do have balance.  Five different players have at least five goals (the Caps have four), and seven have at least ten points (the Caps have five).

2.  Dougie Hamilton is second among rookie defensemen in points (2-9-11) and is not shy about shooting the puck.  He is second among rookie defensemen in shots on goal, but he has only a 4.4 percent shooting percentage.

3.  Patrice Bergeron and Tyler Seguin are tied for the league plus-minus lead at plus-15 (curiously enough, three of the other four players with whom they are tied all play for Carolina).

4.  Boston has the worst negative differential between home and road power play success in the league.  At home the Bruins have converted only two of 33 chances (6.1 percent), but are 7-for-28 on the road (25.0 percent).  They also have the second “worst” – if you can call it that – negative differential between their home and road penalty kill.  They have an 85.7 percent penalty kill at home and a 97.3 percent penalty kill on the road (36-for-37).  Montreal is the only team to score a power play goal on their home ice against Boston.

5.  Former Cap Chris Bourque already has set a career high in points (1-3-4 in 17 games).  He also already has tied a career worst plus-minus at minus-4.

1.  Including last spring’s seven-game playoff series, the Caps and Bruins have played 35 times against one another.  Of those games, 25 ended in one-goal decisions.  The Caps are 11-7-7 in those games.

2.  The Caps might actually miss Marcus Johansson (injured) in this game.   He has three goals in seven regular season games against Boston, tied for the most he has against any team in his brief career, and he has scored against Boston more frequently than against any other team.

3.  The Caps will miss Brooks Laich (injured), too.  Laich has more goals against Boston (10) than he does against any other non-divisional team (he has 10 against Florida).

4.  The Caps have climbed to ninth in the league’s faceoff winning percentage rankings, but they still have only one player in the top-45 in faceoff winning percentage (Jay Beagle, 14^th at 57.3 percent).

5.  Only Edmonton (four) has fewer major penalties taken so far this season than Washington (six).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Chris Kelly

Few Bruins could be said to be disappointments this season, but Chris Kelly comes close.  After recording a career high in goals last season with 20 (does this start to sound familiar, Jason Chimera fans?) and signing a four-year, $12 million contract, Kelly has one goal in 19 games so far, that one coming against the woeful Florida Panthers.  He has never finished a full season in single digits in goals, but unless he has a big push he seems destined for that this season.  Kelly has one goal in 27 career regular season games against the Caps, although he did have an overtime winner in the B’s 1-0 win in Game 1 of last season’s first round playoff series.

Washington:  Troy Brouwer

Troy Brouwer is the unlikely leader in goals for the Caps so far this season with nine.  However, six of them have come against Southeast Division competition.  He has those six goals against the Southeast on only 23 shots (26.1 percent).  He has three goals on 23 shots against everyone else in the East (13.0 percent).  Not bad, but not the Southeast, either.  Brouwer has no career goals against the Bruins, although he does have four assists to his credit.  He does have six goals in his last nine games, though, so he has more than a passing familiarity with the back of the opponent’s net recently.

Keys:

1.  Don’t be the second to swing.  The Bruins don’t take as many penalties as you might think.  Sure, they drop the mitts (only seven teams have more major penalties), but with 83 minors they rank in the middle third in the league (tied for 11^th).  And they do not do an especially good job of drawing penalties (they are last in power play opportunities).  It speaks to the need to stay disciplined and not give in to the sort of Marchandish antics that the B’s might engage in.  Don't give the Bruins freebies.

2.  Show up in the last 20.  Boston locks teams down in the third period.  No team has allowed fewer goals in the last 20 minutes than the Bruins (10).  Meanwhile, the Caps are tied for the fourth highest number of third period goals scored.  Something has to give.

3.  Pressure, pressure, pressure.  Only six teams have allowed fewer shots than Boston, and the Bruins have outshot opponents in 14 of 19 games (they are 10-3-1 in those games).  The Caps need to get pucks to the net on Tuukka Rask.

In the end, we have noted that the Caps need to start posting wins against quality teams if they have a hope of making up either the six point margin they face between themselves and eighth place or the eight points they have to make up with Carolina in the division to secure an automatic top-three playoff seed.  Boston qualifies as a quality team, one that is 6-0-0 against teams in the Southeast Division so far this season (one of two teams with a perfect record against the Southeast Division).  It is going to take a whole team effort to earn two points in this one, but this is still a team that has memories of just that kind of effort from last spring. 

Capitals 3 – Bruins 1

Washington Capitals -- That Was The Week That Was: Week 6

A winning week.  A pair of wins against Southeast Division teams and a loss to a non-divisional opponent.  It is part of a pattern on which the Caps are going to have to improve, but for the moment, a winning week is a winning week.

Record: 2-1-0

The 2-1-0 week was the second winning week in the last three and extended the Caps' non-losing streak to three weeks running (5-3-0 overall).  When the Caps beat Carolina and Winnipeg this week, it extended their winning streak against Southeast Division teams to five games and improved their record against their divisional opponents to 5-2-0.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that with their loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday, the Caps slipped to 3-9-1 against opponents outside the Southeast Division.

Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.75 / rank: 15^th)

The good thing about the week is that seven different Caps had goals.  The bad thing is that seven different Caps had one goal.  The “top line” (a term that really defies description these days with the revolving door at left wing) of Mike Ribeiro, Alex Ovechkin, and Matt Hendricks (this week's contestant on the left side) had two goals.  Ovechkin had neither of them.  The defense had two goals this week; Mike Green had neither of them.  John Erskine, who had one of the goals for the defense, had a two-point week, ending a streak of eight games without a point.  Something of a strange week.  If there was a good takeaway from the week, Nicklas Backstrom had a three-point week (1-2-3, plus-2), and he is now 1-8-9, even, over his past eight games.

Defense: 1.33/game (season: 2.95 / rank: T-22^nd)

100 is a nice round number.  It happens also to be the number of shots on goal the Caps allowed this week.  Not so nice.  It contributed to a week in which the Caps were out-Fenwicked, 143-118.  That is a lot of offense being directed at Capital goaltenders.  First and third periods were troublesome; the Caps were outshot in the first and last frame by a combined, 37-31 and 39-24, respectively.  They might have made a better week of it, results-wise, had they not come out so flat against Philadelphia in the middle game of the week.  The Flyers scored on their second and fifth shots of the game (the second goal coming on a power play), and the Caps never threatened after that in a 4-1 loss.

Goaltending: 1.33/.960/2 shutouts (season: 2.96/.904/3 shutouts)

Braden Holtby had, on balance, a very nice week.  He was 2-1-0, 1.55, .954, with two shutouts.  That’s on balance.  In the middle game he allowed four goals on 18 shots in less than 35 minutes of play.  But there were those two shutouts.  More impressive still, he recorded those shutouts facing a total of 68 shots on goal, the highest shot totals he faced in any of his six career shutouts. 

There is an odd recent pattern Holtby's shutouts, though.  See if you can find it… March 25, 2012, a 28-save shutout… next game, three goals on 15 shots in 22:31.  February 9, 2013, a 27-save shutout… next game, five goals on 32 shots.  February 26, 2013, a 33-save shutout… next game, four goals on 18 shots in 34:55.  Tuesday against Boston could be… interesting. 

Oh, and let’s not forget Philipp Grubauer, who appeared in his first NHL game in relief of Holtby in the loss to Philadelphia.  He saved all 14 shots he faced in 25:05.  In a strange way it resembled Holtby’s first NHL appearance, one in which he got the win by stopping all four shots he faced in 10:09 of ice time in a 5-3 win in relief over Boston in November 2010.

Power Play: 1-for-10 / 10.0 percent (season: 26.1 percent  / rank: 4^th)

Call it “regressing to the mean” if you like, but this week was a downer for the power play.  The Caps failed to convert on their last eight opportunities in a 1-for-10 week.  The Caps could manage only seven shots in those eight missed opportunities.  Alex Ovechkin managed only three of those shots, all in the 4-1 loss to Philadelphia.  In going o-fer for the last two games of the week, the Caps went consecutive games without a power play goal for the first time this season.

Penalty Kill: 6-for-8 / 75.0 percent (season: 76.8 percent / rank: 27^th)

The Caps were perfect against the Southeast teams they faced (5-for-5 against Carolina and Winnipeg) and not so against the other team (1-for-3 against Philadelphia).  It is part of an emerging pattern.  For the season the Caps have killed 80.8 percent of the shorthanded situations they faced against Southeast Division teams.  They have a 75.0 percent penalty kill against everyone else in the East.  Recently the disparity is more pronounced.  Over their last five games against Southeast teams the Caps are a perfect 14-for-14.  But in their last five games against opponents outside the division the Caps are killing penalties at a 66.7 percent rate (14-for-21).

Paying the Price: 55 hits / 58 blocked shots (season rank: 25^th / 21^st)

This week’s takeaway is the fact that the Caps blocked almost 30 percent of the shot attempts they allowed.  It might not be surprising that John Carlson led the week with nine blocked shots, or that John Erskine had eight.  But Mike Ribeiro had six, five of them in the 3-0 shutout of Carolina to start the week.

Faceoffs: 99-for-185 / 53.5 percent (season: 51.2 percent / rank: 9^th)

The Caps keep climbing the rankings in this category.  They won the week and won two of three games in the circle, but their performance was not uniform in all three zones.  The Caps were fine in the defensive end, winning 30 of 53 draws for the week (56.6 percent), but they struggled a bit in the offensive end, going 26-for-55 (47.3 percent).  One of the odder numbers of the week was “1.”  That was the number of offensive zone draws taken by Mike Ribeiro in the 4-1 loss to Philadelphia, that in a game in which he was otherwise 7-for-10 in the other two zones.

Turnovers:  Minus-8

The Caps lost the week, and they lost each game in the turnover matchup.  It did not seem to matter much if the Caps gave the puck away (22 giveaways against) or had it taken from them (27 takeaways against), but turning the puck over a touch over 16 times a game (arbitrariness of the measures notwithstanding) is something to work on.

In the end…

With 28 games left, there are two ways to look at how this season might unfold.  The worst case scenario is this. The Caps are 5-2-0 against Southeast Division teams, 3-9-1 against everyone else.  If they earn points against opponents in these last 28 games in proportional fashion, they will earn another 25 standings points, finishing with 42 points.  That will not enable them to reach the playoffs.  That is lottery pick territory.

On the other hand, in the best case scenario, if they finish their last 28 games with points earned proportional to what they accomplished over their past nine games (6-3-0 for 12 points), they will finish 54 points.  That would probably put them right on the border line of playoff eligibility.  But here is the tough wrinkle thrown into that mix.  Between March 9^th and April 7^th – a period of 17 games – the Caps will play five back-to-back sets. None of them include both games being played at Verizon Center. In fact, seven of the ten games overall will be played on the road (including a pair in Winnipeg).

Realistically, though, the Caps’ season really comes down to the 16-game stretch that starts on Tuesday against the Boston Bruins.  That is how many games remain for the Caps until the trading deadline on April 3^rd.  Six of those games are against Southeast Division teams; the other ten against teams outside the friendly confines of the Southeast.  Unless the Caps find a way to start beating non-divisional rivals with some regularity, their season is going to be pretty much over three weeks before the schedule says it is.

A TWO-point afternoon -- Game 20: Capitals 3 - Jets 0

Wins are wins, points are points.

The Washington Capitals got a win and two points yesterday as they defeated the Winnipeg Jets, 3-0, behind a 35-save effort from goalie Braden Holtby and some timely scoring in the second half of the contest.

The teams traded goose eggs in the first period, although the Jets out-shot the Caps by a 15-5 margin in the opening 20 minutes.  It looked as if the teams might repeat the feat in the second period, the Caps flipping the meter on shot totals, but with the clock having passed the half-way point of the period, the play started with, of all things, a blocked shot. John Carlson fed John Erskine at the top of the Jets’ zone.  Erskine wound up and let fly with a slap shot that was blocked by Blake Wheeler’s right knee, Wheeler collapsing to the ice.  The puck ricocheted back out to Carlson, who fed it back to Erskine one more time.  Erskine fired a pass past the prone Wheeler onto the stick of Alex Ovechkin, who sent the puck toward the Jets’ cage.  Matt Hendricks deflected the puck past goalie Ondrej Pavelec, and the Caps had the lead.

Early in the third the Caps got the insurance they needed with bang-bang goals 52 seconds apart.  The first itself came in bang-bang fashion as Nicklas Backstrom won a face-off cleanly to Troy Brouwer at the top of the right wing circle.  Brouwer then wristed a shot that deflected off Chris Thorburn.  The change in angle and velocity handcuffed Pavelec, and the puck tumbled over his left shoulder and into the back of the net.

Just 52 seconds later, Karl Alzner and Tomas Kundratek retreated into the Caps’ zone playing catch with the puck.  Alzner sent the puck up on a long lead pass to Eric Fehr.  From there, Fehr block-passed the puck to Ovechkin steaming down the left wing.  Ovechkin blew past a flat footed Ron Hainsey and drove in on the Winnipeg net.  Pavelec made the initial save on Ovechkin but could not control the rebound.  Mike Ribeiro, following the play, slammed the puck in before either Hainsey or Brian Little could get back to defend, or Pavelec could react, and the scoring for the day was complete.

Other stuff…

-- Eric Fehr was the catalyst on the Ribeiro goal, converting the long pass from Alzner to a pass on Ovechkin’s tape with speed.  The Brouwer goal was also made possible in part by Fehr.  As Nicklas Backstrom was pulling the puck back to Brouwer, Fehr was jumping into the circle, denying (some – like the Winnipeg broadcasters – might call it “interfering”) James Wright the chance to reach the puck before it got back to Brouwer.

-- Matt Hendricks has four goals this season.  Alex Ovechkin has assisted on three of them, including primary assists on the last two.

-- Lose the battle, win the war, Aaron Volpatti edition.  Volpatti got into a scrap with Anthony Peluso in his fourth shift as a Cap, despite giving away three inches and 20 pounds.  The fight had predicatble results; Peluso won handily.  Except Peluso broke his hand in the fracas.

-- The two-point afternoon was Mike Ribeiro’s eighth multi-point game of the season.  He is on a 98 point-per-82 game pace, and if he finishes at better than a point a game it would mark only the second time in his career he accomplished the feat.

-- One of the things to watch here is Alex Ovechkin’s ice time.  Although he is averaging almost a minute more of average ice time than he did last season, yesterday was the ninth time in the last 16 games he did not reach the 20 minute mark.  And it is not just that the Caps do not get a lot of power play time.  His even strength ice time is actually a few ticks down from last season (16:08 per game to 15:42).

-- Braden Hotlby now has shutouts in his last two games in which he faced more than 30 shots.  He shut out Carolina on 33 shots on February 26^th and shut out the Jets on 35 shots yesterday.

-- The Caps went 0-for-3 on the power play yesterday.  It marked the first time this season that the Caps went consecutive games without a power play goal.  More important, though, it was the first time in three tries the won without scoring a power play goal since they defeated Philadelphia on February 1^st.  The Caps are now 2-4-0 in games in which they do not have a power play goal.

-- The Caps’ 21 shots on goal in this game was the fewest they have had in a win this season and was their second-lowest total overall.    They had 19 in a 3-2 loss to New Jersey on February 21^st.  Conversely, the 35 shots allowed was a high for shots allowed in a win.

-- If you’re keeping track of such things, John Carlson has not been on ice for an even-strength goal against in three straight games and is a plus-4 in that span.  After spending a lot of this season at the top of the list of most goals scored against while on ice among defensemen, he has dropped into a tie for fifth.  And, he has dropped into a tie for 24^th in even-strength goals scored against while on ice.

--  Jay Beagle going 4-for-5 on faceoffs in the defensive zone is not that unusual.  Mathieu Perreault going 5-for-7 in the defensive zone?  He did a fine job back there.  It was part of a very good 18-for-28 effort in the defensive zone.

-- Joey Crabb got a jersey at the expense of Wojtek Wolski in this one.  He had 6:25 in total ice time and did not skate a shift after the 17:12 mark of the second period.  He is providing no offense, and he is not out there to protect a lead.  That does not leave much else, does it?

-- The Fenwickians will have fun with this one.  The Jets out-‘Wicked the Caps, 49-35.  But that is almost entirely explained by the third period, when the Jets held a 21-8 advantage in Fenwick events.

In the end, every win counts as two points, but the fact of the matter is that the Caps are 5-2-0 against teams in the Southeast Division (including five straight wins, three of them on the road), 3-9-1 against everyone else.  The Caps are going to have to burst out of their divisional shell and rack up some wins in short order against teams from outside that comfortable Southeast bubble.  They get a chance on Tuesday when they face the conference leading Boston Bruins, a team that has one loss in regulation in its last 11 games.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 20: Capitals at Jets, March 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If cold is your thing, you can take a trip to Blowhard Mountain in Utah, where the annual average temperature is 34.8 degrees Fahrenheit.  Need colder?  There is Embarrass, Minnesota, where the annual average temperature is 34.5 degrees.  Still not cold enough?  Maybe Climax Mine, Colorado, would be more to your liking – 30.6 degrees. 

Aw, heck…just head to Winnipeg.  Among cities with populations over 600,000 (Winnipeg, pop.: 663,617) it is the second coldest city on the planet.  And that is where the Washington Capitals are headed on the second and last stop on their two-game road trip (or perhaps more accurately, their second trip on the road this week). 

The Winnipeg Jets will host the Caps with a tenuous hold on eighth-place in the Eastern Conference standings.  That is what winning five of their last six games does.  The sad part of that is that on February 17^th, just as the Jets were about to embark on that run and just before the Caps took the ice against the New York Rangers, they were in a flat-footed tie with the Caps with a record of 5-8-1.  The Caps, starting with a loss to the Rangers on that evening, are 2-3-0 in their last five games and remain in last place in the East.

In this 5-1-0 run, the Jets have outscored their opponents by a 20-15 margin.  They have not done it with special teams, though, at least as far as the power play is concerned.  Winnipeg is 1-for-17 (5.9 percent) with the man advantage over these six games.  The other side of the special teams – the penalty kill – has fared much better, going 16-for-19 (84.2 percent), and all three power play goals allowed came in a single game.  The Jets were 3-for-6 in a 5-3 loss to Philadelphia last Saturday.

It has been the Evander and Andrew show over these six games.  Evander Kane and Andrew Ladd have five goals apiece, accounting for half the Jets’ production in this stretch. Olli Jokinen and Blake Wheeler have three apiece, so there really is no mystery about who needs attention paid to them. 

Ondrej Pavelec has each of the decisions in this 5-1-0 run.  He has a very respectable 2.35 goals against average and a .922 save percentage to go along with that record.  He has a decent, if unspectacular, record against the Caps over his career.  Pavelec is 9-9-1 with a 2.66 goals against average and a .917 save percentage with two shutouts.

Here is how the teams stand up against one another, numbers-wise:

1.  Winnipeg has the worst penalty kill in the league at 71.4 percent.  But they shelter that lack of efficiency by not taking themselves off the ice to kill penalties.  Only four teams have committed fewer minor infractions than the Jets, and no team has faced fewer shorthanded situations.  They average only 2.4 shorthanded situations per game at home this season.

2.  By the same token, the Jets don’t avail themselves often of power plays. Only three teams have had fewer opportunities overall, and only Los Angeles and Boston have fewer opportunities on home ice.  The Jets have the lowest frequency of home power plays at 3.33 per game.

3.  The Jets are one of five teams with an unblemished record when leading after one period (3-0-0).  It is not so much the perfect record that catches one’s eye, but the low frequency – three first intermission leads in 20 games.

4.  Once upon a time, Eric Tangradi was a tantalizing prospect in the Pittsburgh organization.  Big (6’4, 221), with a scoring touch (62 goals over his last two seasons in Canadian juniors), he looked like the proverbial diamond in the rough, a potentially productive power forward.  Fast forward to February.  He was a frequent scratch for the Penguins and was traded to the Jets for a seventh round draft pick.  In eight games for the Jets he has yet to record a point.

5.  Andrew Ladd likes home cooking.  His seven goals at MTS Centre is more than twice as many as the next highest totals (Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler, and Dustin Byfuglien with three apiece).

1.  Only six teams have fewer goals scored at 5-on-5 than the Caps.

2.  Only Columbus has a worse record than the Caps when being out-shot.  The Caps are 3-8-1 when teams out-shoot them.

3.  The Caps have that glowing 27.3 percent conversion rate on power plays.  Pity they don’t get to display it more often.  Only three teams have had fewer power play opportunities.

4.  The combination of the frequency of shorthanded situations faced (79, tenth highest in the league) and a weak penalty kill rate (76.0 percent, fourth worst) means that despite the efficient power play the Caps are actually minus-1 on special teams, 18 goals scored on the power play and 19 allowed (the Caps have allowed and scored a shorthanded goal).

5.  The Caps have had an especially weak penalty kill on the road.  Only Carolina and Colorado have allowed more road power play goals so far.

The Peerless' Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Olli Jokinen

Well, was Olli Jokinen worth it? Two years, $4.5 million a year.  Five goals, seven points, and a minus-10.  Jokinen suffered a dry stretch when he was without a point in the first nine games of February.  But in the four games since, he has three goals.  Offense is his calling card, of course, but that minus-10 is disturbing. He has been on ice for a third of the total goals scored against the Jets so far this season and more than half the even-strength goals (20 of 38).  He is 16-17-33 in 55 career games against the Caps.  Oh yeah, and a minus-11.

Washington: Joel Ward

Alex Ovechkin does not lead the Caps in goals on the road.  Mike Ribeiro does not.  Joel Ward does, with four.  Trouble is, every road goal Ward has was scored in a loss.  He had two in Tampa on Opening Night in a 6-3 loss.  He had one in Toronto in a 3-2 loss.  Then he had one in Philadelphia on Wednesday in a 4-1 loss.  Now helpers?  That is a different story.  He has four assists on the road, and the Caps are 3-0-1 in those games.  Maybe ‘tis better to give than receive the assist.  Ward is 1-1-2, minus-7 (!) in 11 career games against the Jets.

Keys:

1.  Be Special.  The Caps and the Jets each have 38 5-on-5 goals.  The Caps have 18 power play goals to 10 for the Jets.  Win the special teams, win the game.

2.  Don’t be Beat by Buff.  Dustin Byfuglien is a load.  Yeah, that, too.  But he is a load at home.  All three of his goals have been scored in the friendly confines of MTS Centre, all of them on the power play (only three defensemen have more power play goals).  It’s not as if you can miss him out there.  Pay attention.

3.  Don’t be Nicked by Nik.  Nik Antropov has been a reliable 20-goal scorer in the NHL (he averaged 21 per 82 games coming into this season).  So far, though, he has one in 20 games.  He has gone 14 games without one.  He didn’t have so much as a shot on goal in either of his last two games.

In the end…

The Caps were 1-2-0 in Winnipeg last year and had their trouble scoring goals (only four goals in the three games).  And that is the Caps’ problem right now on the road.  They have single goals scored in each of their last two road games, a 2-1 loss to the New York Rangers and a 4-1 loss to Philadelphia last Wednesday.  In fact, if one discounts road games played against Southeast Division teams, the Caps are 0-5-1 on the road and have been outscored 20-10.  They have only seven even strength goals scored in those six road games.  They have to do better… much better.

Capitals 3 – Jets 2

A NO-point night -- Game 19: Flyers 4 - Capitals 1

Live by the power play, die by the power play.

The Washington Capitals failed to convert on three power play opportunities, while the Philadelphia Flyers converted on two of their three chances, and that was the hockey game at Wells Fargo Arena last night as the Flyers defeated the Caps, 4-1.

It was not pretty…

--  NHL.com cover boy Braden Holtby gave up four goals on 18 shots before being relieved by Philipp Grubauer, making his first NHL appearance. 

--  The Big Three of Alex Ovechkin, Mike Ribeiro and Nicklas Backstrom were held without a point and were a combined minus-3. 

--  Ribeiro made an early evening of it by taking an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and a misconduct with four minutes gone in the third period.

--  John Erskine had more shots on goal (2) than Ribeiro (1), Eric Fehr (0), Backstrom (1), Troy Brouwer (0), Jason Chimera (0), and Mike Green (1).

-- 4:04 into the game the Caps had one shot on goal, the Flyers had two goals.  That was not an “eight ball” behind which the Caps found themselves, it was an “eight-boulder.”

-- The fourth line, from which not much offense is to be expected, might be expected to get at least a shot on goal.  In a combined 35:09 of ice time, Matt Hendricks, Joey Crabb, and Jay Beagle recorded no shots on goal and had only three shot attempts (all by Hendricks).

-- Tomas Kundratek (a shot on goal, four attempts, three hits, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and plus-1 in almost 18 minutes) and Tom Poti (an assist, three blocked shots, plus-1, and not on ice for any goals against), were arguably the Caps’ best defensemen last night.  That profile on the back end is not going to win a lot of games for the Caps.

-- Over the last nine games the Caps have been perfect on the penalty kill five times.  They won five times.  They allowed at least one power play goal four times, including last night.  They lost four times.

-- Holtby has a bit of an odd pattern emerging.  In his first game after his first shutout of the season he allowed five goals on 32 shots to Florida.  Last night – his first game after shutting out Carolina on Wednesday night, he allowed four goals on 18 shots.  Not the sort of hangover the club needs.  That extends back a bit in time, too.  After shutting out Minnesota on March 25^th last season, he came back in his next game and gave up three goals on 18 shots in 22 minutes

-- The Caps were 7-for-19 on offensive zone faceoffs (36.8 percent).  Ribeiro and Backstrom were a combined 2-for-9. 

-- Hey, at least Grubauer played well.

In the end, the Caps looked dead.  Perhaps that is to be expected after playing the previous night, especially when the Flyers had the extra night of rest and were playing their fourth game of a five-game home stand – reaping the comforts of home, as it were.  Still, it was a missed opportunity to parlay the win over Carolina on Wednesday into a two-fer that would have propelled the Caps within two points of the Hurricanes atop the Southeast Division. 

Now the Caps have a tricky stretch.  First they take the long road to Winnipeg for another “Southeast” Division game before coming home to face the Boston Bruins, winners of 12 of their first 16 games so far this season.  Then they get very winnable (but very losable, given this team) games against Florida and the Islanders before a rematch against the Rangers.  It is a five-game stretch that the Caps need to set up well so that they go into their home-and-home against Carolina in mid-March with something to play for.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 19: Capitals at Flyers, February 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their 3-0 win against the Carolina Hurricanes, take their act up I-95 to the friendly confines of CoreStates First Union Wachovia Bailey Building and Loan Wells Fargo Center where the Philadelphia Flyers await them.  These teams have a deep and rich history, dating back to November 9, 1974, when the Capitals visited The Spectrum in Philadelphia and got pasted, 6-2.  Starting with that ignominious beginning, the Caps have a 73-96-19-4 regular season record against the Flyers and a 12-11 record in the post season (the Caps and Flyers have split four series).

Of more recent vintage, the Caps won the only meeting of these teams to date this season, a 3-2 win at Verizon Center on February 1st.  And that loss is part of the “Arthur Murray” approach to progress the Flyers have been on since late January.  Starting with a 2-1 loss to the Rangers on January 29th, the Philadelphia Two-Step has gone like this…

Two losses

Two wins

Loss

Win

Loss

Win

Two losses

Two wins

Loss

Win

Loss…

We would just as soon that pattern end with this game with the Flyers taking another loss.  The immediate problem the Flyers face, in addition to their finding themselves on the outside looking in at the top-eight in the Eastern Conference, is that their performance has had a “feast or famine” quality to it.  In their last seven games the Flyers are 3-4-0.  In the three wins they scored a total of 18 goals.  In the four losses they allowed a total of, you guessed it, 18 goals.  They have only one one-goal decision in those seven games, a 6-5 thrill ride of a win over the Pittsburgh Penguins a week ago.

The Flyers have split 52 goals evenly with their opponents over this last seven-game run, so defense and goaltending have been issues, even if the offense has not.  Oddly enough, perhaps, is that it is not the penalty kill that has “killed,” so to speak, the Flyers.  They are 25-for-28 on the penalty kill over their last seven games (89.3 percent). 

What the Flyers are not getting is saves.  Ilya Bryzgalov shutout the New York Islanders, 7-0, on 19 shots during this seven-game stretch, but in five other appearances has allowed three or more goals in each, has a 4.25 goals against average and a .846 save percentage.  If he was a star in the humangous universe, he would be an orange dwarf. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtaWkLFfevc

Notwithstanding Bryzgalov’s interstellar issues, let’s go right to the “takes” for this game…

1.  We have made much of the resurgence of the Capitals’ power play over the past few weeks, but that Philadelphia power play has been humming recently, too.  The Flyers are 9-for-34 (26.5 percent) over their last eight games.

2.  Jakub Voracek is just short of half-way to career bests in goals, assists, and points through 21 games.  His is 8-16-24 scoring line compares with his career high of 18 goals (set last season in 78 games), 34 assists (set in 2009-2010 in 81 games), and 50 points (also set in 2009-2010).  In 10 career games against the Caps he is 1-3-4, plus-1, but he was held scoreless with a single shot on goal in the clubs’ earlier meeting this season.  Trivia: Voracek shares a hometown (Kladno, Czech Republic) with former Caps Jaromir Jagr and Michal Pivonka.

3.  Which brings us to Claude Giroux.  The man thought perhaps ready to assume the title as “Best Player in the NHL” stumbled out of the gate to start the 2013 season.  He was only 3-4-7 in his first 13 games.  However, Giroux is 3-10-13 over his last eight games (3-7-10 in his last five) to jump into the top-15 in points.  He has not been especially effective against the Caps over his career, coming into this game with a 6-2-8, minus-2 scoring line over 14 career games against Washington.

4.  This would not be a Caps-Flyers game without making mention of penalties.  The Flyers have more minor penalties (107 in 21 games) than any other team in the league.  Toronto is the only club averaging more penalty minutes per game than Philadelphia. The Flyers have faced the most shorthanded situations in the league.  Playing nice with others is not a Philly thing to do.

5.  Flyer games seem to have a “rock ‘em-sock ‘em” feel in other ways, too.  They lead the league in hits.  They lead the league in blocked shots.  They are fourth in missed shots and giveaways.  Only four teams have a worse face-off winning percentage. Only Florida has been involved in more games decided by three or more goals (the Flyers are 2-6 in such games).  Lots of things happen in Flyer games, some of it good, some of it not.  They might be the most entertaining team in the league in terms of pure events/60.

1.  The Caps are on a roll with the man-advantage.  They are 13-for-28 over their last nine-plus games, going back to the third period of their February 3^rd game against Pittsburgh.  On the season, seven different Caps have power play goals (Mike Ribeiro and Alex Ovechkin lead with five apiece), and ten different Caps have power play points (Ribeiro: 13).

2.  The Caps are one of only three teams that have a power play working at over 25 percent and a penalty kill working at over 75 percent (St. Louis and Pittsburgh being the others).

3.  The Caps scored first last night, but they remain one of three teams (Edmonton and Columbus being the others) with a sub-.500 record when recording the game’s first goal (5-6-0).  They happen to be one of only three teams, as well, with records below .500 when leading at the first intermission (2-3-0), Columbus and Colorado being the others.

4.  Beware the second period.  The Caps have allowed 24 goals in the middle frame, fifth most in the league.  It happens to be the period in which the Flyers have scored the most goals (21).

5.  Nicklas Backstrom (and we’ll get to him a bit more in a moment) has quietly put up points in three straight games and 10 of his last 13 contests (2-11-13).  His game-winning goal last night was his first since getting the game-winner in a 3-1 win over Buffalo on December 30, 2011.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Kimmo Timonen

Kimmo Timonen has put together a very nice career – almost 1,000 regular season games over 13-plus seasons.  He has been quite adept at both ends of the rink, posting more than 500 points and managing to record a career plus-31.  Of special interest to Caps fans, he seems the guy who draws the short straw when it comes to facing Alex Ovechkin.  Hard work, but Timonen has done a decent job of it.  Not bad for a guy who gives up four inches and almost 30 pounds to Ovechkin.  He will be faced with trying to help contain a guy coming off his best game in (dare we say it) years.  Before Saturday, Ovechkin had not had a four-point game since February 4, 2011; and he had not had a hat trick since January 22, 2011.  The last time he had a hat trick or four points at home had been February 7, 2010, when he accomplished both feats against Pittsburgh.  Good luck, Kimmo.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom scored a goal in the Caps’ only meeting against the Flyers this season.  His two points against Philadelphia in that February 1st game happens to be one of only four multi-point games he has this season (he had 16 in 42 games last year).  But Backstrom had a goal last night and finished with a multi-point game.  Philly also happens to be a team that seems to bring out the best in Backstrom.  He has more points against the Flyers than he does against any non-Southeast Division opponent (8-23-31 in 19 career games).  If Backstrom is going to show improvement in the middle third of the season, last night might be a start, but this game might be an indicator if he is on that path.

Keys:

1.  Happy Place.  These are, accounting for the era, a lot like the Flyers of old. They hit, they play loose with the rule book, they hound you all over the place.  The Caps do not have the depth, nor the constitution to get into that sort of a game.  In their first meeting the Caps only faced three shorthanded situations and killed them all.  Their own power play was no better (0-for-5), but given the state of the power play these days, if the Caps can find and stay in their “happy place” and not give in to retaliation, this should turn out well.

2.  Carry Throux with the Canceled Czech.  Over this 3-4-0 run the Flyers are on, Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek have combined to go 6-11-17 in the three wins.  These guys are the straws that stir the drink for the Flyers at the moment.  Washington will have to improve on its 22nd place ranking in shots on goal

3.  Volume, volume, volume.  It matters little if Ilya Bryzgalov faces a lot of shots or a little.  When facing more than 30 shots his save percentage is .912. When facing fewer than 30 and playing a full-game’s worth of minutes it is .910.  So, what is the variable here that leads to more goals?  More shots.  Washington will have to improve on its 22nd place ranking in shots on goal (27.9/game) to make this work.

In the end…

The Caps are on a bit of a roll with consecutive wins coming into this game.  They also happen to be 5-2-0 in their last seven games, consistent with the new found solid play of goalie Braden Hotlby.  The Caps have been solid at both ends, outscoring opponents, 26-14 over the seven games, and their special teams have been excellent – 9-for-21 on the power play (42.9 percent) and 23-for-25 on the penalty kill (92.0 percent).  They are in a good place right now, just in time for their visit to the City of Brotherly Love.

Capitals 3 - Flyers 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 18: Capitals 3 - Hurricanes 2

Staying home on the day before a game might become a trend.

Nicklas Backstrom was ordered to stay home on Monday with an undisclosed ailment.  Whatever home-remedy he took did the trick as Backstrom recorded a goal and an assist as the Washington Capitals took down the Carolina Hurricanes, 3-0, last night.

The goal was not a pretty one.  It was another power play goal made possible by deft passing more than nifty shooting. Alex Ovechkin found Mike Ribeiro on a wall-to-wall cross ice pass, then Ribeiro centered the puck to Backstrom at the top of the Carolina crease.  Backstrom out-muscled Joe Corvo to get his stick on the puck, deflecting it past goalie Cam Ward’s right pad for the game’s first goal

If Backstrom’s goal was not pretty, his pass on the Caps’ second goal was.  He started the play when he slid down the right wing wall as he entered the Carolina zone with possession.  He chose not to feed John Carlson, who was heading down the middle with stick cocked for a one-timer.  Backstrom chose, instead, to lay the puck off to the late-comer, John Erskine, who blasted a slap shot past Ward’s blocker to give the Caps a 2-0 lead just 31 secons into the second period.

Carlson did get his opportunity to get on the score sheet later when Ward could not handle a quick snap shot from Mathieu Perreault firing from the edge of the left wing circle.  The rebound shot out to the right wing circle where Carlson was waiting undefended.  Carlson wasted no time pounding the loose puck into the back of the net before Ward had a chance to scramble across, and the Caps had a three-goal margin with less than nine minutes left in regulation.

From there the only suspense was whether Braden Holtby would record his second shutout of the season.  He stopped the last five he saw after the Carlson goal, giving him 33 saves for the game, and the Caps had their win, only the second time they recorded consecutive wins this season.

Other stuff…

-- The only other time so far that the Caps recorded consecutive wins was a three-game winning streak, February 9-14, when they defeated Florida twice and Tampa Bay.

-- We thought Jason Chimera would break out in this game and get his first goal of the season.  He did not, but not for lack of effort.  His seven shots on goal (in less than 15 minutes of work) led both teams.

-- Speaking of shots, the 40 that the Caps recorded is a season high.  They had 39 in a 4-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on February 14^th.

-- Over on the other side, Alexander Semin led the Hurricanes in shots (four), shot attempts (nine), and blocked a pair of shots.  Nice game…no points…good deal.

-- Meanwhile, Alex Ovechkin finished the game with no shots on goal.  That is the first time that happened in a regular season game since he had none in a 3-0 win (imagine that) over the New Jersey Devils on March 18, 2011.

-- Adam Oates was really parceling out the ice time evenly.  Among the forwards no one played more than 14:26 at even strength (Jason Chimera), and no one had fewer than 11:17 (Matt Hendricks).

-- The Brothers Staal – Eric and Jordan – took 45 of the 60 faceoffs for Carolina, winning 23.  That just struck us as an interesting number.

-- A more interesting number regarding faceoffs might be this one – 26.  That is how many (of the 60 total) were taken in the Capitals’ end.  Keep in mind that despite the Caps’ 40-33 shot advantage, the shot attempts were even in this game at 68 apiece.

-- By scoring on his only shot of the game, John Erskine is now tied for tenth among NHL defensemen in shooting percentage (10.5 percent).  Unleash the Oisk!

-- Braden Holtby, with this shutout, is now 5-2-0, 2.01, .937 in his last seven appearances.

-- Another game, another power play goal.  The Caps have power play goals in three straight games, nine of their last ten games, and 14 of 18 for the season.  They are 13-for-28 going back to the third period of their game against Pittsburgh on February 3^rd (46.4 percent).

In the end, the Caps are only four points out of first place in the Southeast Division, as close as they have been to the top spot since January 24^th, when the Caps were 0-3-0 and the Tampa Bay Lighthing were occupying first place with a 2-1-0 record.  Things do get harder, quickly, though.  There is a trip to Philadelphia tonight followed by a trip to Winnipeg on Saturday.  Then the Caps return home to face the Boston Bruins, who have only two losses in regulation this season.

The Caps appear ready to meet that challenge, though.  They have looked quite crisp in their last two games, outscoring New Jersey and Carolina (both top-eight teams, it should be noted) by a combined 8-1 margin.  Special teams are on top of things, the power play going 3-for-7 in the wins, while the penalty killers were a perfect 5-for-5.

Bring ‘em on.