Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 20: Capitals 4 - Red Wings 3 (OT/Gimmick)

“You have to think about one shot. One shot is what it's all about. A deer's gotta be taken with one shot.  I try to tell people that - they don't listen.”

Michael Vronsky might have been talking about taking down a deer in “The Deer Hunter,” but one shot – one shot – was what it took for the Washington Capitals to take down the Detroit Red Wings last night, 4-3, in a trick shot competition.

What led up to that one shot was, to say the least, interesting.  It was Washington drawing early blood when Steve Oleksy stifled a pass from Danny DeKeyser to Justin Abdelkader at the Capitals’ blue line.  Oleksy bumped the puck up to Brooks Laich at the Detroit blue line.  Laich turned and carved a path through the right wing circle, then snapped a forehand off the winged wheel logo on goalie Jimmy Howard’s chest.  The puck popped up and dropped to the ice, teed up for Laich to chip a backhand from a severe angle into the net at 5:50, leaving Howard with nothing to do but go to the water bottle and think about the rebound he left.

Almost exactly ten minutes later Johan Franzen tied the game on a power play when he surveyed the situation from the left point, inched down the boards, saw that no Capital was coming out to challenge him, circled into the left wing circle, and snapped a shot through a screen, over goalie Braden Holtby’s right shoulder, off the pipe, and in.  Nothing but nothing but net…but it counted.

Less than three minutes later, with the clock under two minutes remaining in the period, it was Franzen again (we should never have pondered him in the prognosto), first watching as Tomas Tatar danced with the puck behind the Caps’ net, then sliding to his left as Tatar came out to Holtby’s left, finally taking a cross-crease feed from Tatar and snapping it in one motion behind Holtby to give the Wings the lead.

The second period went along quietly for almost 18 minutes, the only ripples being each team killing off the other’s power play.  Then, with 2:06 left in the period Tom Wilson was sent to the box for a holding penalty.  With just 12 seconds left in the power play and 18 seconds left in the period, Detroit made good on the opportunity.  Franzen was in the middle of this one, too. 

The play started with Jakub Kindl walking the Capitals’ blue line from left to right.  He sent the puck back across to Franzen along the left wing wall.  Franzen stepped in, and having already scored twice appeared to command the full attention of the Capital defenders, including Holtby, who squared up for a shot.  Franzen faked a drive and sent the puck across to Danny DeKeyser, who had almost an open net at which to shoot.  He did not miss, and the Red Wings took a 3-1 lead to the locker room after two periods.

It certainly looked as if Detroit’s recent woes -- four straight losses, the last three in extra time on home ice -- would end as the teams took the ice for the third period.  The idea of that became less certain in the fourth minute of the period.  It started with Nicklas Backstrom taking defenseman Jonathan Ericsson for a ride around the back of the Detroit cage.  Trying to fend off Ericsson, Backstrom lost his glove but not his stride.  He circled all the way through with Ericsson on him and left the puck in the left wing corner.  Perhaps incredibly, Marcus Johansson beat Pavel Datsyuk to the puck then spun away from Datsyuk and headed behind the net.  Before he got there, though, Johansson slid the puck to the bottom of the left wing circle where Alex Ovechkin was arriving.  Ovechkin snapped the puck through defenseman Niklas Kronwall’s legs and over Howard’s right shoulder to get the Caps within a goal at 3:19 of the third period.

It might have ended that way.  It certainly was not expected to change when the line of Jason Chimera, Joel Ward, and Michael Latta took the ice at 11:29 of the period.  It was not expected to change after Joel Ward carried the puck into the Detroit zone and slid a pass to Jason Chimera trying to beat Kyle Quincey down the middle of the ice.  When Quincey got a stick in the way of the pass to deflect the puck to the end boards, harm seemed to be avoided by the home team.  Even when the puck came back to Ward in the corner, who sent it to Karl Alzner at the point, there was no imminent threat.  Then Alzner sent the puck across to John Carlson, open at the right point.  Carlson tried to get something started by throwing the puck on net where a clot of bodies had appeared.  The puck bounced off someone..something…maybe an octopus, given the venue.  Whatever happened to the puck after leaving Carlson’s stick, it found its way to the ice laying at the top of the crease, just out of the range of Jimmy Howard’s stick. 

There stood Michael Latta.  Who stepped between Kyle Quincey and Pavel Datsyuk.  All alone.  With an open net in front of him.

One shot.

One goal.

Tie game.

(too dramatic?)

The lead gone, the Red Wings were playing to hang on and perhaps catch a break or a bounce.  They could catch neither in regulation, and despite having an abbreviated 46 second power play in overtime could not get either in the extra session.  That left it to the freestyle competition. 

The Red Wings, desperate to get the second point, resorted to trickery.  Todd Bertuzzi tried to execute a spin-o-rama, but it looked a bit like a rhinoceros executing a brisé in ballet.  Holtby watched the dance unfold and calmly poked the puck away.  That left it to Nicklas Backstrom skating slowly in on Howard.  As he got to the hash marks he darted to his left to get Howard to move.  When Howard opened the five hole to slide across, Backstrom took advantage.

One shot.

One goal.

Game over.

Other stuff…

-- The “one shot” theme certainly applied to Michael Latta’s first NHL goal.  It came on his only shot attempt of the game.

-- Backstrom leads the league in trick shot efficiency, hitting on all four of his attempts this season (he has the most goals of his fellow travelers at 100 percent).  Only Winnipeg’s Andrew Ladd has more goals (five).

-- Alex Ovechkin’s goal was his first point at 5-on-5 since the third period of a 4-1 win against Edmonton on October 24^th.

-- Nicklas Backstrom led the team with six shots on goal.  It was close, but not a personal best.  He has had seven shots in a game three times.  No, shootout tries do not count.

-- Brooks Laich broke an 11-game drought without a goal when he recorded his third of the year in the first period. 

-- Maybe it was efficiency, maybe it was scoring, but the Caps finished the night with 70.2 percent of their shot attempts on goal.  The other side of that is that the Red Wings had 61 shot attempts to the Caps’ 47.

-- From the “thanks for coming, here’s your hat" file, Michael Latta did not skate another shift after scoring his game-tying, career-first goal.

-- The penalty killers are showing some fraying on the edges.  It is the fourth time in the last seven games opponents scored at least one power play goal, including the two scored by Detroit in five tries last night.  Over those seven games the Caps are 25-for-31 (80.7 percent).  The Caps have also allowed five or more opportunities four times in those seven games, allowing at least one goal in three of them.

-- On the other side, last night was the third game in a row that the power play came up empty for Washington.  That ties a season high streak set in the last three games of October.

-- That is 11 of his last 13 appearances in which Braden Holtby faced 30 or more shots.  One of the instances in which he did not was when he was pulled after allowing three goals on 14 shots in 12:48 of work against Calgary on October 26^th.

-- Looking at the time on ice for the defense with Mike Green out yields the expected and the strange.  Yes, John Carlson was going to get Mike Green’s power play time (6:43), and he was going to get big penalty killing minutes with Karl Alzner (5:51 apiece) on his was to more than 32 minutes of ice time.  But Tyson Strachan getting almost 22 minutes in his call-up from Hershey?  His 19:16 at even strength being more than Alzner got (18:21)? 

-- Then there was Steve Oleksy.  He finished the night with barely 10 minutes of ice time and had only three shifts in the third period.  That writing was put on the wall when Johan Franzen scored two goals from Oleksy’s side of the ice in the first period, once when he was on the other side of the crease entirely, tied up with Darren Helm.

In the end, it was a night that did not go perfectly, but it was still one in which a Caps fan can take some satisfaction.  It was a game in which the other team blew a third period lead.  It was a night in which the other team had to watch a guy get his first NHL goal.  It was a night in which the other team looked slow and disengaged over long stretches, struggling with confidence in the midst of a losing streak.  It was a night in which the other team’s fans had to file out silently, muttering under their breath about the one that got away.

Now the Caps come home for a big week of three games against three teams of wildly different styles – the suffocating system of St. Louis, the persistent pressure of Pittsburgh, and the mélange of… well, something that starts with an “M” of Montreal. But this is a team that is now 6-1-1 in November.  They’ll be rested, ready, and rarin’ to go.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 20: Capitals at Red Wings, November 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are LIVE from Motown, where the Washington Capitals will descend on Joe Louis Arena hoping to make their abbreviated one-game road tr-…

…who are you?

“I’m the Spirit of Detroit."

The what?

“The Spirit of Detroit.”

Is that like the Spirit of Christmas Past?

“Yeah, in a manner of speaking.”

I’d have thought these days “The Spirit of Detroit” would be hard to find.

“I’m right there, every day, sitting in front of the Municipal Center.”

I mean, with the Tigers losing in the playoffs last month, the Pistons missing the playoffs the last four years, the Lions not having won a playoff game in more than 20 years, and the Red Wings not being what they were…

“Hey, watch what you say about the Red Wings…”

Sorry, didn’t know that was a sensitive subject.

“That’s OK, I just get tired holding up this Sputnik in my left hand here.”

I thought that was meant to symbolize God.

“Yeah, that’s what it says on the Web site…don’t believe it.”

And who is that supposed to be in your right hand?

“I dunno…they’re supposed to symbolize the spirit of family, but if you ask me, they’re Lions fans throwing up their hands at blowing another lead to Green Bay.”

So what are you doing down here at the Joe instead of at the Municipal Center?

“Hey, you think I’m going to miss a chance to see Ovechkin?”

What the Capitals are going to see is a team that might not be what they once were, after all.  Don’t get us wrong, this is a team that has a string of 22 straight appearances in the post-season, a string that includes four Stanley Cup championships and two other trips to the Cup finals.

But there are cracks in the edifice.  Until last season the Red Wings put together 12 straight seasons in which they garnered at least 60 percent of the available standings points.  Until two seasons ago they finished first or second in their division 19 straight years.  However, two years ago the Red Wings finished third in the Central Division (albeit with 102 points), and last year they finished third in the division with a .583 points percentage.

There are teams – a lot of teams – that would give up their concession revenue to have had the record the Red Wings have had over the last couple of decades, even the ever-so-slight slip the last two seasons.  But one can see what might be the end of an era in the Motor City. 

It is a team that is getting older.  Of 26 skaters dressing for the Red Wings so far this season, ten are past the age of 30, and the core of the club over much of the last decade – Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsuyk, Johan Franzon, Niklas Kronwall, and Daniel Cleary is 32 or older.  And to that, the Red Wings added Daniel Alfredsson, a lock for the Hockey Hall of Fame from his 17 years in Ottawa, but who is the oldest player on this roster at age 40.

This is a team that built a reputation as being a team that controlled the puck, but through 19 games this season is a middle-of-the-road club in possession statistics (tied for 12^th in Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 close situations, 12^th in Fenwick For percentage in those situations; source: extraskater.com).

More ominous is the fact that the Red Wings come into this game having lost four games in a row (1-0-3).  By itself, that is not necessarily a big deal.  But it is their second four-game losing streak in the space of 11 games, the other (0-2-2) over the October 19-26 period.  They had two losing streaks of four or more games two seasons ago, but they didn’t experience their second one until game 72 of the season.

Here is how the numbers stack up against one another for the two clubs…

1.  What makes the current four-game losing streak unsettling for Red Wings fans might be the level of competition.  Three of the four losses came to Winnipeg (twice) and Dallas, teams that sit in fifth and sixth place in the Central Division, respectively.  Then there is the matter of Detroit having scored only nine goals in those four games, allowing 13.

2.  Last season, if goaltender Jimmy Howard was not the Wings’ most valuable player, he was on a short list.  He had 21 wins (tied for seventh in the league) in 42 games with a 2.13 goals against average (ninth) and a .923 save percentage (tied for ninth).  This season, after winning his first two decisions, he is 3-5-5, 2.87, .908, although he does have a shutout against San Jose in there for good measure.  Howard has not won a game at home since October 12^th, a 5-2 win against Philadelphia.  He is 1-1-0, 3.02, .878 in two career appearances against the Capitals.

3.  Detroit has had a hard time closing teams out. The 19 third period goals allowed is the fourth highest total in the league.  Only three teams have a lower winning percentage after leading at the second intermission, although they have held leads nine times and are 6-1-2.  Still, they are leaving points on the table with third period play.

4.  And here is something of a bizarre statistic.  In 11 one-goal decisions, the Red Wings have yet to lose one in regulation time.  They are 6-0-5.

5.  Detroit does not beat themselves by straying outside the rule book.  Only Chicago and New Jersey have fewer penalty minutes per game than the Red Wings.  That goes hand in glove with the fact that the Blackhawks and the Devils are the only two teams in the league with fewer fighting majors (two apiece) than the Red Wings (three).  And of the three fights recorded by the Wings so far, one of the pugilists – Brendan Smith – injured his shoulder against Edmonton on November 2^nd and is on injured reserve.  Another – Jordin Tootoo – has been assigned to Grand Rapids in the AHL after clearing waivers.

1.  The “glass half full” description of November, so far, is that the Caps have standings points in six of seven games and are 5-1-1.  The “glass half empty” version is that the Caps have one road win in their last five tries (1-3-1), the win being the 7-0 romp in Philadelphia on November 1^st.

2.  Washington is a plus team only in the second period (31 goals scored, tops in the league, and 16 allowed).  In the first they are 10-17, for and against, and in the third they are 15-21. Those 21 goals allowed in the third period is the second most in the league to Edmonton (28).

3.  Joel Ward is on a three-game goal scoring streak.  It is the longest such streak for Ward since he had a three-game streak March 8-12, 2011 (two of the goals were game-winners) with Nashville.

4.  Nicklas Backstrom has been streaky in the early going.  October 19-24 he had a three-game points streak, followed by consecutive games without a point.  Then he had a four game points streak, followed by a three-game streak without one that he will take to the ice on Friday night.  Backstrom has not had a four-game streak without a point since November 12-19, 2011.

5.  It’s a good thing plus-minus has fallen out of favor as a benchmark statistic.  Otherwise, we might be worried that only Edmonton has more players at minus-10 or worse than the two the Caps have (Alex Ovechkin and Brooks Laich, both minus-10).  By the way, Edmonton has six of the league’s 12 players at minus-10 or worse.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Johan Franzen

For six straight seasons through 2012-2013, Johan Franzen was a reliable high-20’s/low-30’s goals per 82 games scorer.  So far this season he has two in 14 games.  He scored both in a 4-2 win at Colorado on October 17^th; he has not had a goal at home this season, and he does not have an even strength goal.  He has one point in his last six games.  He has been battling an upper body injury, although it is not clear whether he is suffering from injury or illness.  In five career games against the Caps he is 1-0-1, minus-6.

Washington: Steve Oleksy

Chesterfield is about 40 miles from Joe Louis Arena, but for Steve Oleksy the journey from one to the other has been much longer.  On Friday he makes his first appearance in Detroit in his NHL career.  He will do so as the third leading point getter among Capitals defensemen, second in assists, second in plus-minus, first in hits, and second lowest in on ice goals against (10 games played minimum), all while getting a shade less than 16 minutes of ice time a night.  He does not yet have a goal this season, and he does not have a point in his last four games.  That is not what he is there for, though.  He is there to cause a ruckus and keep the other guys from getting too comfortable in the offensive end.  The trick for him will be not trying to do too much in his first visit back home.

Keys:

1.  60 minutes.  Detroit has allowed five third period goals over their four-game winless streak.  It is part of a continuing problem for the Red Wings.  While the Caps have allowed 21 goals in the third period (second highest in the league), Detroit is right there with 19 allowed in 19 games (fourth).

2.  Dat’s Right.  Pavel Datsyuk is on quite a run.  In his last 15 games he is  8-10-18, plus-8, and has points in five of his last six games.  On a team that stubbed its toe over the last four games, he has been a source of consistent offense.  He is – or should be – the focus of the Caps for this game. In 12 career games against the Caps he is 4-12-16, plus-4

3.  Respect, not awe..  The Red Wings have the winged wheel on the front of the jersey, the arched nameplates on the back, and an octopus handing somewhere from the rafters.  But they have not been playing all that well of late, and it is a team that should not be paid too much respect.  If they worry about who they are, the Caps will find themselves victims of self-inflicted wound.

In the end…

The Caps have had uneven success in their infrequent visits to Detroit.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout they are 1-2-0 against the Wings at The Joe.  But the Caps have put together a quiet stretch of success with their 5-1-1 record in November.  The aim now is to improve on their road record, which has not been marked by recent success.  This is one of only two road games they will play before Thanksgiving, so the travel burdens should not be difficult to bear.  They catch the Wings in a slump, making this a game they can – and probably should – win.

Capitals 3 – Red Wings 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 19: Capitals 4 - Blue Jackets 3 (OT)

It could have ended a lot worse.  The Washington Capitals fell behind the Columbus Blue Jackets twice, the second time with less than six minutes in regulation.  However, Mikhail Grabovski tied the game late, and Alex Ovechkin won it in overtime to give the Caps a gritty 4-3 win over the Blue Jackets to pull within one point of the idle Pittsburgh Penguins for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

Columbus opened the scoring after a scoreless first period.  Brandon Dubinsky scored shorthanded in the eighth minute of the second period when he stripped the puck from Troy Brouwer behind the Capitals' net, circled out, showed the puck to goalie Braden Holtby, then pulled it to his backhand and swept it into the back of the net.

Six minutes later, John Carlson finished a gang-rush to the front of the Blue Jackets’ net, pounding a feed from Martin Erat past goalie Sergei Bobrovsky before the pile could shove the net off its moorings.

Then it was Joel Ward netting a shorthanded goal nine minutes into the third period, taking advantage of a bit of sloppy play behind the Columbus net by Bobrovsky.  With the puck sent in deep, Bobrovsky misjudged its angle and position coming off the end boards, misplaying the puck to the front of his net where Ward jumped on it and rifled it into the netting before Bobrovsky could recover.

Jared Boll tied the game less than three minutes later with some excellent stick work. He didn’t use it.  James Wisniewski wristed a shot from the right point that flew to the far side of the crease in front of Holtby, hit Boll in the rib cage, and bounced behind Holtby for the score.

Not quite three minutes after that, Cam Atkinson took advantage of Mike Green’s inability to control a bouncing puck in the neutral zone.  Atkinson stepped around Green to corral the puck, then sped in alone on Holtby.  Green tried to interrupt Atkinson’s progress with a hook that might have ended up in a penalty shot.  Atkinson rendered that possibility moot when he curled in, held the puck until Holtby started to slide across the crease, they slipped the puck five-hole to give the Blue Jackets the lead with 5:41 to play.

It looked as if the Caps would be disappointed after the late Columbus surge, but with 1:45 to play Mikhail Grabovski converted a rebound of a Jason Chimera shot from the left of Bobrovsky, stepping around James Wisniewski and roofing a wrist shot over the goalie’s glove to tie the game.

That was how regulation ended, and given the Caps’ history this season it suggested we would see a trick shot competition.  That nonsense was avoided when Marcus Johansson did some heavy lifting early in the overtime, carrying the puck down the left wing into the Columbus zone, fighting through a check along the wall by James Wisniewski, circling to the net and getting a shot on goal.  Bobrovsky made the initial save, but Alex Ovechkin was johnny on the spot, lifting a forehand over Bobrovsky’s right pad and in to give the Caps the 4-3 overtime win.

Other stuff…

-- For Grabovski it was his 100^th goal in the NHL in his 385^th game.

-- How is that top line experiment going?  Ovechkin – six shots (five with his top line mates, one with Johansson for the game-winning goal), Nicklas Backstrom – none, Martin Erat – none.  Erat’s assist on the Carlson goal came skating with Grabovski and Tom Wilson.

-- John Carlson’s goal was his fourth in his last six games (4-1-5).  Pending results of Tuesday’s games, he is now tied for third among defensemen in goals.

-- Ward’s goal was the Caps’ first shorthanded goal of the season. It was Ward’s ninth goal overall, meaning he surpassed his total for all of last season in 39 games (8).  It is his highest total since he had 10 in 80 games with Nashville in the 2010-2011 season.

-- Technically, Ovechkin’s goal was an even-strength goal, although it was scored at 4-on-4.  It broke a streak of 112:48 of even strength ice time without an even strength point.

-- The goal avoided what might have been a mini-disaster for Ovechkin, who was on ice for all three Columbus goals.  Mike Green also was on ice for those three Blue Jacket goals.

-- It was one of the rare nights when a defenseman for the Caps had more minutes than Mike Green.  Tonight it was John Carlson, who had more minutes (24:32 to 23:03), more shots (four to one), more shot attempts (eight to five), more goals (one to none), more points (two to one), more blocked shots (three to two), and was a plus-2 to Green’s minus-2.

-- Michael Latta did not figure in the scoring, and he only played 5:41 in total ice time.  However, he logged a very effective 1:26 in penalty killing time and was three-for-three on faceoffs.

-- Speaking of faceoffs, the Caps were abused in the dot, winning only 22 of 58 draws (37.9 percent).  It was especially gruesome in the offensive zone, where the Caps were 6-for-28 (21.4 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom was 0-for-10 in the offensive zone (3-for-15 overall), and Mikhail Grabovski was 0-for-6 in the offensive end (5-for-15 overall).

-- It was the rare night when the Caps had more even strength shots than their opponent.  They were 31-25 to the good for the game and 24-13 after the first period.

-- Troy Brouwer was credited with eight hits.  Put another way, he had as many hits as the next three Caps combined – Brooks Laich (3), Jason Chimera (3), and Aaron Volpatti (2).  He also won five of eight draws, joining Latta as the only Caps taking more than one draw to win a majority of their faceoffs.

-- The power play had an off night.  Two shots in 4:56 of power play time (Ovechkin, Green) and a shorthanded goal allowed.  It was the third allowed by the Caps this season, putting them in a tie with four other teams for the most allowed in the league.

In the end… the Caps sleepwalked through the first period, played to their opponent’s level in the second (actually an improvement on the first period), showed signs of life and grit in the third, and were opportunistic in the overtime. If you are going to have a game like that, that is the order of events you want, if you are a Caps fan.

The outcome was important in several respects.  First, it allowed the Caps to avoid their second three-game losing streak of the season.  Second, it gets them back on the right footing as they head off to a difficult stretch of their schedule.  Third, and this might be most important in the long run, they won without having to go to the freestyle competition. 

It is only the Caps’ sixth win in regulation or overtime among their ten wins to date, and that will be the first tie-breaker at the end of the season.  As it is they are tied with two other teams for fourth in ROW in the Metropolitan Division and only one win ahead of both the New York Islanders and the Columbus Blue Jackets.

As it is, the win puts some pressure on the Pittsburgh Penguins, who hold a one-point advantage over the Caps (although with two games in hand).  That has some relevance in that the Caps and Penguins will be meeting a week from Wednesday for the first time this season and for the first time as Metropolitan Division rivals.  In the meantime, the Caps have work to do with hard games against Detroit and St. Louis coming up.  Better to head into those games with a win, even if it was not elegant.  Two points are two points.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 19: Blue Jackets at Capitals, November 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, aren’t we glad THAT’S over with?  The Washington Capitals wrapped up their last trip out of the Eastern time zone until the new year in disappointing fashion, managing a single standings point in trips to Phoenix and Colorado.

Now, they get to come home for one of the fabled Metropolitan Matchups that have been a staple of National Hockey League history for, oh, about six weeks.  On Tuesday the Columbus Blue Jackets make their second visit to Verizon Center to take on the Caps, who beat the Jackets, 4-1, on October 19^th.

Since then Columbus has been struggling to tread water even in what is a mediocre division.  The Blue Jackets are 4-5-0 since their visit to Verizon in October, and it is a record that reflects two very different teams. There was the team that won three in a row after leaving Washington, two of those wins coming in impressive fashion against Vancouver (3-1) and Toronto (5-2).  Then there is the other team that followed up that streak with a five-game losing streak in which they scored only eight goals.  The Blue Jackets broke that streak last Saturday with a 5-2 win over the New York Islanders.

Columbus will be facing an unusual situation in preparing for this game – hotel rooms.  Since they left Washington last month the Blue Jackets have had just one game away from Nationwide Arena.  That was a 4-2 loss in Pittsburgh, which doesn’t even qualify as a day trip, seeing as how the cities are less than 200 miles apart.  In these parts, that’s almost a commute.

What it means is that Columbus (four) ranks only ahead of the woeful Florida Panthers (three) in road points earned to date in the NHL.  This is not a team that can be called road warriors.  Including their progress to date this season the Blue Jackets have not ranked higher than 20^th in road points earned in any of the last five seasons.

Here are how the teams compare, numbers-wise:

1.  James Wisniewski, Scoring Machine.  With 13 points in 16 games, Wisniewski is on a pace (13-56-69) to obliterate his career best points effort (10-41-51 in 2010-2011).  He got here by going 2-8-10 in nine games since he and his Columbus teammates last cast their shadows across Verizon Center ice.  He is 0-2-2, plus-2, in six career games against Washington.

2.  Another player looking to jump well past his career high in scoring is Ryan Johansen.  He does not have the length of resume Wisniewski has, but he is off to an impressive start nonetheless.  With a 5-6-11 scoring line to date, he is on a pace to go 26-31-57.  That would smash his career best, set in his rookie year two years ago when he was 9-12-21 in 67 games.  Much of that pace is fueled by a 4-4-8 scoring line in nine games since he faced Washington.

3.  For what it’s worth, no team has allowed more empty net goals than the Blue Jackets (5).  The Caps are one of six teams not yet scoring one.  Will something crack?

4.  No team has fewer one-goal wins than Columbus (1).  That goes with no team having played fewer one-goal games than Columbus (4).

5.  Only Florida has taken fewer leads (1) into the third period of games than Columbus (2).  The Blue Jackets did, however, win both games.

1.  Going into Monday’s games, 54 players had more shots on goal than Mike Green.  All 54 players had at least one goal to show for it.  Alas, Green is still looking for his.  He is tied with Winnipeg’s Zach Bogosian for early season futility, both being 0-for-49 in shooting.

2.  Washington has spent more than a minute more of 5-on-3 power play time (5:46) than the next highest participant at 5-on-3 (Anaheim – 4:28).  At least Anaheim has a goal to show for it.  The Caps are one of two teams with more than four minutes of 5-on-3 power play time without a goal.  The other is Buffalo.  This is not company you want to keep.

3.  Of the Caps’ 53 goals scored this season, 20 were scored on the power play.  The percentage of total goals claimed by the power play (37.7 percent) is by far the largest in the league.  Montreal is next with 33.3 percent of their goals scored on power plays.

4.  Braden Holtby did not face 40 shots against Colorado on Saturday.  Pity. Five times in his career he has faced 40 or more shots with a record of 4-1-0, 2.55, .939.

5.  In today’s Fenwickiness, consider “5-on-5 close.”  As defined at extraskater.com, score “close” refers to “game situations where the score is either tied, or within one goal in the first or second periods.”  For the Caps, here is how that translates into results.  Six times this season the Caps finished a game with a share of Fenwick events with the score close of more than 50 percent.  In those games they are 4-1-1.  One loss was a one-goal decision in regulation, the other a Gimmick loss.  Twelve times they finished 50 percent or worse and are 5-7-0 in those games.  Four of the losses were by three or more goals.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Brandon Dubinsky

A more familiar face to Caps fans seems to have found his game in the confluence of the Scioto and Olentangy Rivers.  Brandon Dubinsky is 3-7-10 in his last nine games, a point total that by itself is half as many as he posted in 29 games all of last season for Columbus.  He is tied for the team lead in scoring (13 points) and is one of only 14 players in the league at the moment who has an even-strength goal, a power play goal, and a shorthanded goal.  He remains his feisty self, leading the Blue Jackets in both penalty minutes and hits.  Dubinsky also has won more than 54 percent of his faceoffs and has only three giveaways charged to him in more than 300 minutes of ice time.  In 19 career games against the Caps (all of them as a New York Ranger), he is 3-8-11, plus-3.

Washington:  Alex Ovechkin

At 1:24 of the third period of the Caps’ 4-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers on October 24^th, Nicklas Backstrom scored on assists from Marcus Johansson and Alex Ovechkin.  In the rest of that game and six games played since – 96:36 of even strength ice time – Ovechkin has not added to his even strength point total.  He has three goals and two assists, all of it on the power play.  It speaks to a certain amount of depth, not to mention power play production, that the Caps are 4-3-1 in games since the Edmonton game (including those missed by Ovechkin to injury), but Ovechkin – who is staring up at 109 skaters with more even strength points – is going to have to be more than a power play trigger man for the Caps to sustain any level of success over the long term.

Keys:

1.  30.  Sergei Bobrovsky has been easy to predict in goal for Columbus this season.  Fail to get more than 30 shots on goal on him, and you lose.  Get more than 30, you win.  Bobrovsky is 5-2-0 in games in which he faced 30 or fewer shots on goal (in one of the losses he was pulled after facing 13 shots in 23 minutes), 0-5-0 in games in which he faced more than 30.  He faced a season high 39 shots on goal in Washington’s 4-1 win over Columbus on October 19^th.

2.  As Nicky Goes…  The Caps are 9-2-0 in games in which Nicklas Backstrom records a point, 0-6-1 in games in which he does not.

3.  Zone starts. Columbus is second in the Eastern Conference in faceoff winning percentage.  The odd part is that only Tampa Bay has taken fewer draws than the Blue Jackets in the East.  Keep things moving., and perhaps the Caps will not have to put up with doing something that Columbus actually does well.

In the end… Here is a game the Caps could, should, and need to win.  As it is, even if the Caps win it will be the latest into the season that they won their 10^th game (in a full NHL season) since the 2007-2008 season when it took them until Game 29 to get to ten wins.  After this game the quality of competition in the six games on the schedule before Thanksgiving ramps up.  Only Ottawa, who the Caps play on the day before Thanksgiving, currently has a worse record than the Caps, and that is by a single standings point (the Senators have a game in hand at the moment).  This is as important a should-win game as you might find in November.

Capitals 4 – Blue Jackets 2

Washington Capitals: Metro versus Metro...Know the Differences

Washington Capitals fans, living where they do, might still be confused about the naming of the new "Metropolitan Division" in which the Caps play.  After so many years of patronizing "Metro" to get to games, a new "Metro" might be a bit much, even for the sophisticates that live and work in the region.  So, we bring you this handy table of comparisons that will help you differentiate between "Metro" -- a finely tuned instrument that brings its patrons hours of comfort and pleasure -- and that contraption you ride to hockey games...

Washington Capitals: A NO point night -- Game 18: Avalanche 4 - Capitals 1

You have heard us say from time to time that in an 82-game season there are 20 games you are going to lose, no matter what, that there are 20 games you will win, no matter what, and it is in the rest that your season’s success or failure resides.

Well, this was one of those games you can chalk up as being a game you would lose, no matter what.  At least it makes what happened at Pepsi Center in Denver a little more palatable.  The Washington Capitals did just that – lose – to the Colorado Avalanche, 4-1.  It was a game that was daunting enough, given the record the Avalanche assembled to date.  It was downright disheartening when heaped on top of that was the anvil chorus of Capital shots hitting pipes and some iffy officiating of both the omission and commission sort.

The Caps started slowly, and they paid for it, helped along by some of that iffy officiating.  It started when the Avalanche tried to execute a long cross-ice clearing pass out of their own zone.  The puck skittered through Mike Green and Cody MacLeod, who were tangled up at the Capitals’ blue line.  Goalie Braden Holtby played the puck off the boards behind his own net, but Nate Schmidt could not get his stick on the ricocheting puck.  It slid out to the high slot where MacLeod backhanded a shot toward the Capitals’ net.  Patrick Bordeleau… the six-foot-six-inch before you consider the skates Patrick Bordeleau… deflected the puck down and past Holtby for an apparent goal.  The goal was allowed by the on-ice official and confirmed by video review, but it did not seem to pass either the smell or the sight test…

The Caps regrouped and competed harder, holding the Avs off the scoreboard for the rest of the period despite the ice titled steeply toward the Caps’ end.  Colorado outshot the Caps, 12-4, in the first period.  The second period was a much more evenly played affair, and the Caps evened things up when Joel Ward took advantage of the same springy end boards that victimized Braden Holtby on the Avalanche goal.  Off a faceoff to goalie Semyon Varlamov’s left the puck came back hard off the end wall and angled back toward the low slot where no Colorado player was occupied.  Ward slid in and with time and space deposited a backhand shot past Varlamov’s right pad to tie the game.

Then the Caps went all…Caps.  On the ensuing shift Colorado regained the lead when Gabriel Landeskog mesmerized the Caps into looking his way as he was handling the puck behind the Caps net.  It gave Nick Holden a chance to step into a seem where Landeskog found him.  One snap shot later, from the left wing faceoff circle, and Holden had his first NHL goal that gave the Avs the lead they would not relinquish.

The third period turned into a home town affair, the Avs getting an insurance goal in the ninth minute when PA Parenteau snuck one through Holtby’s pads after the Avs controlled the puck in the Caps’ end for a long shift.  Gabriel Landeskog added some cosmetic touches late when he collected a loose puck in his own end, sped up the right wing boards, stepped around Alex Ovechkin at the Capitals’ blue line and ripped a shot past Holby for the final indignity.  Avalanche 4 – Caps 1.

Other stuff…

-- Ovechkin gets high-sticked…no call.  Martin Erat was boarded…no call.  Ovechkin was helped into the end boards head and shoulders first…no call.  Jason Chimera offends the delicate sensibilities of an official…two minutes.  It might not have made any difference in the end, given the Caps’ struggles on their own power play this evening, but it still had a foul smell to it.

-- Speaking of the power play… 56 seconds of 5-on-3 time, one shot on goal, and that one was a long range try by Mike Green.  The Caps had only three shot attempts, two of them by Green.  It was the 11^th consecutive dry well for the Caps at 5-on-3.

-- Not that the conventional power plays were any more effective.  In 6:03 at 5-on-4 the Caps had seven shots, only one of them by Alex Ovechkin.  You might remember that when these two teams met last month, Ovechkin was held without a power play shot in 3:48 of power play ice time. 

-- The Caps are 7-2-1 in games in which they score at least one power play goal.  They are 2-6-0 in games in which they do not.  Tonight, they did not.

-- Coming into this evening’s play, only Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith had more shots on goal than Mike Green without having lit the lamp.  Both Keith and Byfuglien scored tonight.  Green has the top spot to himself.

-- One of the things getting a bit lost in the noise…the new top line of Ovechkin, Backstrom and Erat is making no noise of their own at even strength.  Ovechkin has not had an even strength point in more than six games, dating back to the third period of the Caps’ 4-1 win over Edmonton on October 24^th.  Backstrom doesn’t have an even strength point in his last four games.  Erat doesn’t have a point of any flavor in his last five contests.

-- There was no fun in Fenwick tonight.  The Caps’ Fenwick-For percentage at 5-on-5 close was 44 percent.  In 11 games this year when they were on the wrong side of that statistic in that situation the Caps have only two wins in regulation (source: extraskater.com).

-- At least they seemed to get the zone starts down.  Of 27 offensive zone faceoffs for the Caps, Nicklas Backstrom took 15 of them, winning nine. 

--  In fact, if you looked at faceoffs only, you would think the Caps dominated possession.  There were those 27 faceoffs in the Caps’ offensive zone.  There were only 14 draws taken in the Caps’ end of the ice.  But here is what that tells us.  Given the shot volumes, the Avs were able to put together combinations or otherwise keep the puck moving without play stopping on a Holtby save.  At the other end, Varlamov was either stopping pucks or they were going out of play.  The Caps were not able to put together combinations or flurries.

-- Colorado has been an equal opportunity abuser of Capitals goaltending.  Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth each have lost to the Avalanche and have a combined line of 0-2-0, 4.50, .862 against them.  Against everyone else they are 9-6-1, 2.52, .926, with one shutout.  The Caps are done with the Avs this season, unless…

In the end… Maybe the Avs will rediscover their 2012-2013 spirit in which they had the second worst record in the league.  But at the moment they look like another club that has passed the Caps by in the development of a contending team.  Pittsburgh, Chicago, Los Angeles.  They were once young and awful, or more precisely, awful, then young, then champions.  Colorado looks like the most recent incarnation of such a club.  

Yes, this was the back half of a back-to-back, played at altitude.  And, there is a lot of time left in the season.  However, if the two games against the Avs serve as any sort of benchmark to compare where these teams stand, Caps fans are not going to like the view unless they like craning their necks to look up at the Avalanche.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 6

It could have been perfect.  It ended up being just short.  Let us just hope that last sentence is not one we will have to write come April for the Washington Capitals because of a point left behind in November.  In a week that had a lot going on, that might be the lasting image of it.

Record: 2-0-1

For the fourth consecutive week the Capitals put together a winning week.  They are 8-3-1 over that span. The week began in dominating fashion with the Caps pounding the upstart New York Islanders, 6-2.  That would be the high point of the week.  The Caps had to come back late to tie the Minnesota Wild before escaping with a win via the Gimmick.  Washington slipped a little further when they went out west, letting a two-goal lead evaporate in the last four minutes against Phoenix to force overtime before losing the extra standings point in another trick shot competition.  In a season of ebbs and flows, of ups and downs, the week was good, but the trend was not as comforting.

Offense: 3.67/game (season: 3.06 / rank: 9^th)

Averaging 3.67 goals a game duplicates the result of the previous week, and once more it was swelled as the product of a big night.  Last week it was a seven-goal eruption against Philadelphia.  This week it was a six-goal barrage against another Metropolitan Division opponent, the New York Islanders. 

On an individual basis the Caps spread things around.  Eleven goals were spread among seven different players, Alex Ovechkin leading the club with three.  What might be the surprising part there is that John Carlson and Marcus Johansson were next with two apiece.  Those two came into the week with only one goal between them (Carlson).

The points were spread around as well.  There were 15 players – 14 skaters and goalie Michal Neuvirth – sharing in the fun.  Ovechkin led the club with a five-point week (3-2-5) that lifted him into a tie for fifth in the league in points (20).  He was joined there by Nicklas Backstrom, whose four assists for the week led the club.  Again, though, the surprise here is who finished tied for first in points – Marcus Johansson (2-3-5).  In case you have not noticed, he is now tied with the likes of Evgeni Malkin, David Krejci, and Zach Parise in points for the season (15), and he is tied for seventh overall in assists (13) with folks like Anze Kopitar and P.K. Subban.

Defense: 2.33/game (season: 2.76 / rank: 19^th)

On one level, the consistency was good – two goals, two goals, and three goals allowed.  But that two goals allowed in the last four minutes of the Caps’ 4-3 Gimmick loss to Phoenix sticks out like a sore upper body injury.  It was the natural product of the context of the third period.  In the last ten minutes of regulation time the Coyotes outshot the Caps 11-1.  The shots continue to be an issue.  Opponents averaged 35.3 shots a game this week and made it 12 games in a row in which opponents recorded 30 or more shots in a game.

If you are looking at individual players, it was not a good week for the shutdown defensive pair of Karl Alzner and John Carlson.  They were on ice for six of the seven goals scored against the Caps and all three power play goals against.  It was not an especially good week for the third line, comparatively speaking.  Jason Chimera and Mikhail Grabovski were on ice for three of the four even strength goals against, Joel Ward for two.

Goaltending: 2.22 GAA / .934 save percentage (season: 2.66 / .921 / 1 shutout)

It is hard to fault the goaltending this week.  Save more than 93 percent of the shots you face, and you will win a lot of games.  With the week that both Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth had, both have climbed onto the first page of the goals-against leaders at NHL.com.  And, Holtby is now tied for 12^th in save percentage (at .925, with Philadelphia’s Steve Mason), while Neuvirth is now tied for 23^rd (.913, with Jaroslav Halak and Antti Niemi).

In fact, the last four weeks have been pretty impressive.  All four finished with save percentages over .910 and twice the save percentage was over .950.  Over the 12 games covering those four weeks, Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth are a combined 8-3-1, 2.20, .936, with one shutout.  Only once did either of them (Holtby) allow more than three goals in a game, although they combined to allow five to Calgary on October 26^th.  This week was solidly in that recent performance range.  There is a persistent narrative that goaltending on this team is a weak, or at least an unproven, commodity.  How long do we go until we move from the persistent “small sample” argument to “this is what they are?”

Power Play: 7-16 / 43.8 percent (season: 28.2 percent / rank: 1^st)

The Caps came into the week in a bit of a slump with the man advantage.  In the five games preceding this week they were 2-for-20 (10.0 percent), both of those power play goals coming in the Caps’ 7-0 rout of Philadelphia on November 1^st.  That slump came to an end in a big way in the first game of the week when the Caps abused the New York Islanders for four goals on eight shots over six power play opportunities.  In that game the Caps averaged only 55 seconds spent per power play and scored their four goals in a total of 93 seconds on those four power plays.

It would be hard for the rest of the week to measure up to that performance, but it came close.  Washington had three power play goals on ten chances in the other two games and finished the week with their first three-game streak of power play goals since the first three games of the season.  Individually, the usual suspects had big weeks.  Alex Ovechkin was 2-3-5, and Nicklas Backstrom was 0-4-0 (to the careful reader, these numbers should mean something, but we’ll get to that).  Marcus Johansson had four points (1-3-4).  Six other players recorded power play points, including Tom Wilson, who notched his first NHL goal on a power play against the Islanders.

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Penalty Killing: 11-14 / 78.6 percent (season: 88.2 percent / rank: 2^nd)

It was going to catch up to them sooner or later.  Coming into the week the Caps were on quite a run.  They killed 35 straight penalties over nine-plus games, dating back to their last shorthanded situation face against Colorado on October 12^th.  In their last shorthanded situation faced against Florida on November 2^nd, the streak was broken.  Still, 35 of 36 is hardly bad (97.2 percent).

However, in their three games leading up to this week the Caps faced a total of 17 shorthanded situations.  That should have raised a flag.  This week the volume was again high (14 shorthanded situations) and the law of averages caught up with the Caps.  They were perfect against the Islanders to start the week but allowed one against Minnesota, then gave up a pair (including the game-tying goal late in regulation) to Phoenix to close the week.  Part of the problem, as it were, was allowing 28 shots on goal in 21:05 of penalty killing time.  A .893 save percentage in a penalty killing situation is respectable, but there were too many opportunities for misfortune.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 4-4 (season: 30-35; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.94 / rank: 16^th)

The Caps fought the opposition to a draw in aggregate even strength goals this week.  Shots on goal were roughly equal (73 for the Caps, 76 for opponents), and shooting percentages were similar (5.5 for the Caps, 5.3 for opponents).  And, if you are looking at underlying numbers, it was a “Fenwicky” kind of week for the Caps.  In two of the three games the Caps had impressive 5-on-5 Fenwick/For Close numbers (61.8 percent against the Islanders, 55.6 against Phoenix; source: extraskater.com).

But here is the thing.  Recall above we hinted at foreboding to the careful reader.  The top line had one even strength point for the week, a goal by Marcus Johansson when he was skating with Tom Wilson and Brooks Laich.  If you think of the top line as being Alex Ovechkin, Marcus Johansson, and Martin Erat, then the top line had no even strength points for the week.

Faceoffs: 100-214 / 46.7 percent (season: 48.7 percent / rank: T-22^nd)

It was an uneven week for the Caps, but a consistent one in the circle, if that makes sense.  The consistency was in losing the faceoff battle overall in all three games.  The uneven part came in the zone results.  It was a brutal week in the offensive zone, Washington winning only 31 of 78 draws (39.7 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom (7-20) and Marcus Johansson (5-12) combined to win only 37.5 percent of the offensive zone draws they took.  Only Mikhail Grabovski enjoyed any success (12-20/60.0 percent).

The defensive zone draws looked a lot better.  Overall the Caps finished 40-for-73 (54.8 percent).  The odd part of this result was that of Backstrom, who won 11 of 15 defensive zone draws (73.3 percent).  Grabovski did his part here, too, winning eight of 15 faceoffs (53.3 percent).

Goals For/Against by Period:

The Caps continue to dominate second periods.  A five-goal second period against the Islanders will do that, but even without that the club was most productive in the second period.  It left them leading the league in second period goals (29).  It would be nice, though, if the Caps could put teams behind the eight-ball early more often.  It was not a lack of opportunities; they had 29 shots on goal in the first period over the three games.  However, they had just one goal to show for it, that coming in the middle game of the week against Minnesota.  A 3.5 percent shooting effort is, one hopes, due for a correction.

In the end…

One can like the result, yet not be too enthralled with how it was achieved.  A big win followed by a pair of trick shot competitions, one win and one loss.  It was a week that finished right where it counts – wins and losses – but one in which the underlying performance was uneven and perhaps trending downward.  Over the last two weeks the Caps are 4-1-1, but in there are two blowouts.  It is a good thing that both of them were Capitals wins, but each of the other four games were one-goal decisions, three of them decided in the freestyle competition, and the Caps split those four games into two wins and two losses.  It is a thin margin, certainly thinner than making a big deal out of a 4-1-1 (2-0-1 this week) record would indicate.

That said, the “glass half full” perspective is that the Caps banked two wins in each of the last two weeks despite a couple of chancy performances.  And, the Caps did earn a standings point in one of the losses.  None of that is bad.  Just don’t think of it as a formula for consistent success. 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 18: Capitals at Avalanche, November 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON the zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…

We are high above the dark plain below us, flying somewhere near The Four Corners on our way to Denver, Colorado, where the Washington Capitals will face the Colorado Avalanche in the back half of their back-to-back western road trip.

We might already be in Denver, asleep in our beds, but we made one fatal mistake.  We left the flight arrangements to Cheerless.  It seems he knows a guy, who knows a guy, who heard of a guy who did flight charters, and he thought (if “thinking” can be considered a part of his repertoire) “why not?”

We should have known “why not” as we were getting to the airport, such as it was…

I don’t think this was the main runway at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.  The whole “why not” thing was pretty much driven home as soon as the plane was brought out to the tarmac…

The flight crew did not inspire the highest of confidence, either…

The tower seemed concerned about an approaching weather front…

…but we did manage to get airborne just as the weather was about to take a turn, giving us at least the illusion of safety…

…until they brought the in-flight meal…

We passed on that bad boy, and it’s a good thing.  Not 15 minutes later, there was a lot of moaning, and we don’t mean new members joining the Mile-High Club, if you know what we mean.  Fortunately, there was a doctor on board…

…a rather serious fellow named “Dr. Shirley,” I believe.  Things seem to have settled down, but we have a way to go in this rustbucket, so let’s get down to tonight’s game…assuming we get there.

Colorado has spent most of the season sitting atop the league standings.  Although they trail the Anaheim Ducks by three points for the most standings points, they remain tops in standings points earned per game (1.73 to 1.61 for Anaheim). 

They do not come across their ranking lightly.  Through games of Friday, the Avs were a top-five team in scoring offense (5^th), scoring defense (1^st), 5-on-5 play (3^rd), penalty killing (3^rd), margin of victory (2^nd), record when scoring first (the only team with an unblemished record, 11-0-0), one of only two teams (the Rangers being the other) with perfect records when leading at the first intermission and at the second intermission, and power play goals allowed (tied for fewest with the Caps).

Colorado is one of only four teams not to have endured a loss by three or more goals this season (3-0-0); they are unbeaten in one-goal decisions (5-0-0).  Only two teams have allowed fewer 5-on-5 goals than the Avs (Minnesota and Boston).  Only Tampa Bay (5) has allowed fewer first period goals (6).  Only Minnesota (8) has allowed fewer second period goals than Colorado (10).  They have the best team save percentage (.944), the fourth best shooting percentage (11.1 percent), and the best team PDO overall (1055).  Through 15 games, at least, this is a formidable team.

Here are the overall numbers for both clubs…

1.  One thing that has contributed to Colorado’s early season run – health.  Twelve skaters have appeared in all 15 games (13 if you include the Steve Downie/Maxime Talbot duo, since one was traded for the other), 18 of them have appeared in more than 10 contests.  The Avs have only 16 man-games played by replacements.

2.  Another thing – depth.  Twenty of the 22 skaters appearing for Colorado have recorded points, and one who has not – Maxime Talbot, obtained in the trade with Philadelphia for Steve Downie – has been with the club for only four games so far.

3.  Colorado won six in a row to start the season before losing a game, then won another six games in a row before losing a game.  Here is the thing about the losses.  Those two games are the only ones this season in which the Avalanche allowed more than two goals.

4.  The Avs have achieved an almost perfect 2:1 workload ratio between their goaltenders.  Semyon Varlamov has appeared in 10 games, Jean-Sebastien Giguere in five.  Varlamov has 599:09 in ice time so far, Giguere has 299:53 (a 1.998:1 ratio, if you are keeping score).

5.  It is hard to find a soft underbelly of this team on defense.  There does not appear to be that one or two players who are frequently on the ice when the opponent scores goals.  Defenseman Andre Benoit has been on ice for 13 goals against, most on the club.  However, through Friday’s games there were 145 players on ice for more goals against (of 719 players having dressed this season).  Of the 239 defensemen having dressed, 87 of them have been on ice for more goals than Benoit.

1.  The Caps do not visit Denver often, but it is not the horror show they face in some other western cities.  They are 4-2-1 in their last seven visits to Pepsi Center dating back to 2001.

2.  The Caps’ 4-for-6 effort on the penalty kill last night was their first game allowing two or more power play goals this season.  It dropped them to second in the league in penalty killing (88.2 percent), behind Vancouver (89.1 percent).

3.  Only four teams allow more shots on goal per game than the Caps (34.3).  Only Buffalo, Toronto, and Ottawa have larger negative shot differentials per game.

4.  That penalty kill is efficient, but the Caps are showing signs of slowing effectiveness in preventing power play goals.  Why?  Only five teams have faced more shorthanded situations than the Caps.  The Caps still have the fourth fewest power play goals allowed, but there are cracks in the framework.

5.  With three third period goals last night, the Caps now have the most goals scored in the second period this season (29).  It makes up (sort of) for the fact that only four teams have fewer first period goals scored.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Maxime Talbot

When Colorado traded Steve Downie to Philadelphia for Max Talbot on Hallowe’en, the story line was that Colorado didn’t appreciate Downie mixing it up with team captain and franchise player Gabriel Landeskog in a scrimmage and then being unapologetic for it.  On the surface it was a trade of a volatile sort (he had 32 fights and 696 penalty minutes in 285 career regular season games before the trade) for what might be perceived as a more workmanlike “grinder” sort of player in the traditional sense of the word (he had only 18 bouts and 408 penalty minutes in 515 career regular season games up to the trade).  That might be a fair description of the exchange. 

There is another, perhaps more consequential difference, though.  Talbot has played in 77 post-season games, including appearances in two Stanley Cup finals (scoring the Cup-clinching goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2009 finals).  He has 18 goals and 39 points, along with a plus-17 in those 77 games.  Downie has 23 playoff games on his resume and only two goals to show for it (he does have 13 assists).  The word “journeyman” might apply to Talbot in the traditional meaning of the term, one who is experienced in his craft, if not a master.  He is a solid, dependable player, one who has had a measure of success against the Caps, 8-3-11, plus-2, in 26 career games.

Washington: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby has built an impressive early-career resume – 44-21-4, 2.43, .923, and eight shutouts.  The part of that resume that applies to Western Conference teams is not quite as impressive.  Holtby has appeared in 12 games versus the West and has a career line of 7-4-0, 2.74, .910, and two shutouts (for our purposes, we do not include his games against Winnipeg, a former divisional rival, or his appearance against Columbus this season, since they are a divisional rival, but we do include his only appearance against Detroit, who played in the West when Holtby faced them).

This will be Holtby’s first appearance against the Avalanche, assuming the rotation of Michal Neuvirth against Phoenix and Holtby against the Avs holds.  And if his history in Western Conference arenas is an indicator, Holtby will be swimming upstream against his record to date.  It is a small population of games, but in five games in Western Conference rinks Holtby is 2-3-0, 3.35, .895.

Keys:

1.  First in war, first in peace, first in the first period.  In both of Colorado’s losses (both of which came at home, by the way), they allowed two goals in the first period.  

2.  Don’t lose contact.  Colorado has scored first in 11 of 15 games so far this season.  In six of their seven wins at home they scored first.  In four of those games, not only did they score first, they jumped out to multiple-goal leads.  If they score, it is important to get the next one.  If they do instead, you’ll spend the rest of the game watching them whizzing by and around you. 

3.  It’s a 200-foot rink…make ‘em play all of it.  Colorado cannot use their speed if they are fighting for pucks deep in their end.  The Caps have to do a much better job of making the Avs dig for pucks below their own goal line than they did when the teams faced one another last month in a 5-1 Avalanche win.

In the end…

Whether the Caps are a different team than the one that was strafed by the Avalanche last month will become apparent early in this game.  In 12 games since they lost at home to Colorado, Washington has allowed a first period goal only six times and a total of only eight.  If the Caps can make this more of a grinding game than their first meeting, it negates much of what advantages Colorado has.  That argues for the standard “keep it simple” sort of road game.  And so it will be…

Capitals 3 – Avalanche 2