The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 48: Capitals at Blue Jackets, January 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take the ice on Friday night for the middle game in their three-game road trip, a visit to Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, to take on the Blue Jackets.  And folks, if you think Columbus is merely a hockey backwater, a place where hockey fills the time between an Ohio State football season and an Ohio State spring practice, are YOU wrong.

First, it is Columbus, not Cleveland and not Cincinnati, that is the largest city in Ohio by population.  It also happens to be the home to the Chemical Abstracts Service that, as anyone with a passing familiarity with chemistry knows, is the repository for “Chemical Abstracts,” a periodical index of recently published scientific documents.  

Going hand in glove with that is the fact that Columbus is home to the Batelle Memorial Institute, an applied science and technology development non-profit company that is an important player in the administration our nation’s national laboratories.

But perhaps most important of all, Wendy’s was founded in Columbus.  The next time you take a bite of the mouth-watering Baconator, you can think of the city at the confluence of the Scioto and Olentangy Rivers.

As for hockey, the Blue Jackets are the new kid on the Metropolitan Division block, their first season in the Eastern Conference after spending 12 seasons in the Central Division in the Western Conference.  The Capitals have faced the Blue Jackets twice this season, defeating Columbus in each instance – a 4-1 win in October and a 4-3 overtime win in November, both games played at Verizon Center.

This will be Washington’s first visit to Columbus this season.  The Caps have done rather well in central Ohio.  After losing their first-ever game against the Blue Jackets in Ohio, the Caps have won six of the past seven meetings on Blue Jacket ice, the last one coming on New Year’s Eve, 2011, a 4-2 win, a game in which the Jackets went out to a 2-0 lead after two periods but watched the Caps score four times in the third period – two of them goals by Alex Ovechkin – to win, 4-2.

Columbus has been nothing if not streaky lately.  Beginning at the start of December the streaks have been: a two-game winning streak, a loss, another two-game winning streak, a three-game losing streak, a three-game winning streak, a two-game losing streak, a win and a loss, then a four-game winning streak coming into this game.

The four-game winning streak on which Columbus finds itself is its longest of the season and the Blue Jackets’ longest since a five-game winning streak last April.  Columbus has found an offensive rhythm in this streak, scoring 15 goals over the four games while allowing eight.  The Blue Jackets have had balance in scoring across the four games with Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner, and Mark Letestu recording three goals apiece.  Meanwhile, James Wismiewski leads the club in total points over the four-game winning streak (1-4-5). 

It has made up for a lack of goal scoring from their leading goal-scorer, Ryan Johansen.  Before recording a goal in Columbus’ 3-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday – his 17^th of the season -- Johansen had gone five games without a goal and had one over his past eight games. He has not had much success in his few appearances against the Caps, no points in three career games.

The Columbus net belongs to Sergei Bobrovsky once more.  After missing 12 games to a groin injury, Bobrovsky appeared in three of the four games in the recent Blue Jacket winning streak.  It is part of a longer five-game personal winning streak in which he stopped 145 of 152 shots (a .954 save percentage) and had a 1.45 goals against average.  He has not been nearly as successful against the Caps, carrying a 1-1-2, 3.63, .890 record against Washington into this game.

Here is how the teams compare, numbers-wise…

1.   Teams generally find it hard to get started against the Blue Jackets. Columbus has allowed only 29 first period goals this season.  Only six teams have allowed fewer.  But get started, they do.  Only three teams have allowed more third period goals than the 52 allowed by the Blue Jackets.  Third periods, in fact, are generally quite active in Blue Jacket games.  No team has had more total goals scored, for and against, in the third period this season than the 101 scored in Columbus’ games.

2.  Only Edmonton (17) has played in fewer one-goal games than has Columbus (18).

3.  The Blue Jackets see the power play infrequently at home.  With 73 power play opportunities at home this season, only five teams have seen the man advantage less frequently.

4.  If Columbus is going to win, chances are they will do it with goaltending and defense.  Of their 22 wins, 16 of them came in games in which they allowed two or fewer goals, five of them by shutout.

5.  As befits a sixth place team, Columbus is not an especially effective possession team.  The Blue Jackets are 16^th in Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations, 19^th in Fenwick-for percentage.

1.  The Capitals have a 5-6-2 record in one-goal games not decided in the shootout this season.  They are 24th in points earned in such games and 24th in winning percentage (wins/games played). They are in a really bad neighborhood there. The teams below them in winning percentage are Columbus, Winnipeg, Edmonton, the Islanders, Florida and Buffalo. Two of their five wins came against those teams (CBJ, NYI), both in overtime.

2.  The Caps have gone four games without a power play goal, their longest streak of games without one this season.  That the Caps are 1-1-2 in those four games, all of them decided by one goal and two of them in the Gimmick, shows just how dependent the team is on that facet of the game.

3.  If history in this series is a guide, how the Caps do on offense will be where this game is settled.  In 11 wins in the series between these clubs the Caps averaged 4.2 goals per game, both wins this year accompanied by four-goal efforts.  In the five instances in which the Caps did not win (three losses, an overtime loss, and a tie), the Caps averaged 1.4 goals and were shut out twice (both times by current Philadelphia Flyer Steve Mason).

4.  If you’re looking for the canary in a coal mine in this game, keep an eye on Marcus Johansson.  He is 5-17-22 in 22 Caps wins this season, 2-8-10 in 25 losses.

5.  The Caps have a nine-game streak worth noting for the fancystat file.  Nine straight games with a Corsi-for percentage over 50 percent in 5-on-5 close score situations.  Until this streak their longest such streak for the season was four games, November 30 – December 8. The Caps were 3-1-0 in those games; they are 2-3-4 on this nine-game streak.  Go figure.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: R.J. Umberger

The left-winger from Pittsburgh comes into this game without a point in five straight games, his longest points drought of the season.  His scoring is usually a factor in Columbus wins; he is 8-8-16 in 22 Blue Jacket wins, just 2-4-7 in 24 losses.  It should be no surprise, then, that his being held without a point in two games against the Caps (along with a minus-3) has accompanied two Blue Jacket losses to the Caps.  That was a bit unusual, since in 18 previous career games against the Caps he was 6-7-13.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich, trying to come back from a series of injuries this season, has been all over the lineup.  Center, left wing, fourth line, third line… now he is the left wing on the top line with Mikahil Grabovski and Alex Ovechkin.  Or at least he has been for the past couple of games.  His goal against Pittsburgh (shorthanded) was his first goal in eight games.  What he is not getting, or what he is not availing himself of, is shooting opportunities.  In a four season stretch (2008-2009 through 2011-2012) in which he averaged 20 goals per season, he also averaged 2.48 shots on goal per game.  This season he is averaging 1.54 shots on goal per game.  Over his last eight games he has 11 shots on goal.  He has a goal and an assist in two games against Columbus this season.

Keys:

1.  Shoot, shoot again, shoot some more.  Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-7-2 in games in which he faces more than 30 shots this season.  Eight times in those games he allowed three or more goals, and he has an overall save percentage in those games of .909.  Beware if the Caps are held under 20 shots.  In both games in which he played the entire game and faced fewer than 20 shots this season, Bobrovsky has shutouts.

2.  Seconds, please.  Really…please.  Please get some scoring out of the second line.  People are starting to talk.

3.  Line of sight.  The Caps goalie situation is, to be kind, in flux.  Let’s get down to basics here.  Let whoever it is that takes the net tonight get some confidence.  Let him see those shots, keep the Blue Jackets to the outside.

In the end…

Who would think this would have been a “big game.”  The Caps?  Against Columbus?  In January?  But there it is.  Columbus is only four points behind the Caps with a game in hand.  And, they are coming in hot with that four-game winning streak.  Columbus is the sort of team that is playing in a fashion that should get the Caps’ attention (their 7-3-0 ten-game record is only one point less than Pittsburgh’s 7-2-1 record, for example).  The question is, will the Caps be paying attention?

Capital 5 – Blue Jackets 3

Washington Capitals: A NO point night -- Game 47: Penguins 4 - Capitals 3

The Washington Capitals started a three-game road trip last night by visiting the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The trip did not get off to a good start, the Caps dropping a 4-3 decision to the Penguins at Consol Energy Center.  It was Washington’s third consecutive loss and ninth in their last dozen games.

It was another case of the Caps being unable to hold a lead.  They had three opportunities to do so.  The first one came after Brooks Laich opened the scoring in the first period with a shorthanded goal.  In the 14^th minute, with Joel Ward off for tripping, Laich picked up a loose puck at the Penguins’ blue line, and seeing room on the left side, he stepped up. Defenseman Kris Letang tried to poke the puck away, but Laich held on, stepped around Letang and snapped a shot over goalie Marc-Andre Fleury’s blocker to start the scoring.

After Letang got the goal back with one of his own midway through the second period, finishing what was a 4-on-2 rush, Jason Chimera gave the Caps a 2-1 lead.  It started with Joel Ward skating the puck behind the Penguins’ net and sending a pass out to Dmitry Orlov at the left point.  Orlov stepped to the middle and sent a pass deep to Marcus Johansson at the bottom of the right wing circle.  Johansson wasted no time moving the puck to the middle where Chimera was waiting in the slot.  Chimera, who was left alone by the Penguin defense, had an almost empty net at which to shoot, and he buried the shot.

Pittsburgh tied the game less than two minutes later, Taylor Pyatt snapping a pass from Olii Maatta past goalie Michal Neuvirth before defenseman John Erskine could tie him up.  That did it for the scoring in the second period, the teams tied at 2-2.  That score held into the ninth minute, but then the Caps took their third lead of the night.  After having his stick slashed out of his hands in the left wing faceoff circle by Brooks Orpik, Alex Ovechkin retrieved his stick and one-timed a pass from Johansson past Fleury at 8:35 of the period

It was another lead that would not last long.  Precisely three minutes, in fact.  Jussi Jokinen tied the game for the third time at 11:35 when he redirected a centering feed past Neuvirth.  It was actually a case of defenseman Dmitry Orlov getting his stick on the puck first, but in his shooting motion Jokinen hit Orlov’s stick, the action thus batting the puck into the net past Neuvirth’s blocker.

To that point the teams alternated goals, but the Caps would not keep the chain going.  Pittsburgh scored next and last, Olli Maatta shooting through a screen from the top of the left wing circle with just 1:54 left to end the scoring for the evening, the Pens skating off with a 4-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- The loss dropped the Capitals to third in the Metropolitan Division behind the Philadelphia Flyers by virtue of the Flyers having more wins in the same 47 games played.

-- Holding the Penguins’ top scorers – Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby – to as many points (two) as penalties taken (two, both by Malkin) would be considered an achievement and would normally have been a recipe for a better ending.  The Caps did not count on rookie Olli Maatta tying a career high of two points.

-- Karl Alzner’s assist on Brooks Laich’s shorthanded goal was his tenth helper of the season.  He jumped into second place among Caps defensemen in assists, one ahead of John Carlson.  Mike Green leads the defensemen with 20 assists.

-- The Caps outshot the Penguins by a 4-1 margin in the first eight minutes.  In the last 12 minutes of the first period the Penguins shelled the Caps by a 16-6 margin, yet the Caps took the 1-0 lead into the first intermission.  Michal Neuvirth was sharp, keeping the Caps in the game.

-- The second period was a bit different and a matter of competing trends.  The Penguins went into the game having scored 54 second period goals for the season, the Caps scoring 57.  It was the Penguins winning the period, 2-1, this despite the Caps outshooting the Penguins, 13-8.

-- Giving up four goals on 37 shots meant that Neuvirth had the longest active streak among Caps goaltenders of .900-plus save percentage games ended at five.

-- Marcus Johansson’s two points made it seven points in his last seven games (2-5-7).

-- The one-goal decision is becoming a habit.  It was the fifth straight one-goal game for the Caps and their tenth in their last 12 contests.  The Capitals are 3-2-5 in those ten one-goal decisions.

-- The loss dropped the Capitals to 14-17-2 in games not decided in the Gimmick.  Only the New York Islanders (14-23-4 in such games) are further under .500 than the Caps in non-Gimmick games.

-- The Capitals finished with a flurry on Fleury after the Maatta go-ahead goal: shot, missed shot, missed shot, shot.  It reflected good pressure, but the Caps, as they have so often against this team, were just a bit short.

In the end…

We are 47 games into the season, and the Caps are still trying to figure things out.  A reworked first line, a reworked second line, ditto for the third line, a relatively new second defense pair, God-knows-what is going on with the third defensive pair, and then there are the goalies.  What it has meant in the recent portion of the schedule is that the Caps are a day late and a dollar – or more precisely, a goal – short. 

What is particularly unnerving about it is that when they get good defense, such as allowing only a couple of goals, they can’t score.  Four times in their last nine games they allowed only two goals, and they lost three of those contests, all of them in the Gimmick.  Then, when they do score, they get leaky on defense.  In that same nine-game stretch the Caps scored three or more goals five times and lost in three of them, twice by one goal, one of those in overtime.

On the one hand, the optimist might say that the Caps are this close to turning it around.  The pessimist might say, this team has no stability, no structure, how are they going to magically turn it around? 

The Caps have the unenviable task of having to figure this out with seven of their next eight games on the road and only 11 games left before the freeze on trades for the Olympic break.

Get to work, boys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- A ONE Point Night and Another Night for Hockey: Games 46 and 47

The Washington Capitals dropped a 2-1 trick shot decision to the San Jose Sharks last night.  It was the Caps’ second consecutive loss, their second consecutive trick shot loss, their second consecutive trick shot loss at home, their second consecutive trick shot loss at home by a 2-1 score, their second consecutive trick shot loss at home by a 2-1 score in which their shooters in the freestyle competition were shut out in three tries.

In the hockey portion of the game the teams exchanged single goals.  Tyler Kennedy, who once tormented the Caps in the colors of the Pittsburgh Penguins, scored in the game’s 14^th minute when he deflected a Jason Demers slap pass from the slot past goalie Philipp Grubauer.  The Caps scored their own in the 13^th minute of the second period when Alex Ovechkin took a Karl Alzner feed and whipped it in one motion from a severe angle over the right shoulder of goalie Antti Niemi.  And that was that…except for the freestyle hijinks.

Other stuff…

-- One.  It is, as Three Dog Night sang, the loneliest number, but for the Caps it is becoming all too common.  For the fourth time in their last eight games, the Caps were held to a single goal.

-- Three.  Three times in those four games in which the Caps were held to one goal, the Caps lost in the Gimmick.

-- 2.00.  That is the goal support Philipp Grubauer has received from his teammates in his last eight appearances.

-- 2.06.  That is Grubauer’s goals against average in those same eight games.  It happens to be his same goals against average for the season in 14 appearances.

-- .933.  Grubauer’s save percentage in those eight games.

-- Two.  The number of wins Grubauer has in those eight games (2-2-4).

-- 14.  The number of games played by the Caps decided by the Gimmick, most in the league.  San Jose is second with 13.  The teams are tied (with Toronto) for the most wins in that phase with eight apiece.

-- One.  Points from the second line in four games since Nicklas Backstrom was matched with Brooks Laich and Troy Brouwer.  By the end of this game, that line was broken up.  Eric Fehr replaced Laich, and Laich was moved to the top line with Mikhail Grabovski and Alex Ovechkin.

-- One.  …is turning out to be a not-so-lonely number.  The number of shorthanded situations faced by San Jose in this game.  It was the third time in five games that the Sharks faced one or fewer shorthanded situations.  It was the sixth time in eight games that the Caps had two or fewer power plays.

-- Two.  The number of Capitals without a shot on goal last night (Karl Alzner and Jay Beagle). 

-- Three.  Last night was only the third time in 12 instances this season in which San Jose’s Joe Thornton did not register a point and the Sharks still won.

-- One (again with the one’s?).  Number of Capitals wins against the Sharks in the 21^st Century (1-15-2).

In the end…

The Caps are wasting a lot of good goaltending these days.  It their offense had the faintest signs of life in games in which Philipp Grubauer tends goal, Grubauer might be getting some Calder Trophy buzz for rookie of the year.  He is second in goals against average and save percentage among rookie goalies having appeared in at least ten games.

The Caps are now 3-3-5 in their last 11 games and have scored just 26 goals in doing so.  Seven of those goals came in consecutive wins (their only consecutive wins in this stretch) against Tampa Bay and Toronto.  Four times they have been held to a single goal.  The Caps have 15 goals in the new calendar year, and Alex Ovechkin has had a hand in almost half of them (3-3-6).  Nicklas Backstrom has done his part, to a point (1-3-4 in those six games) but has been handicapped by unproductive linemates.  Then, after Mikhail Grabovski is accounted for (1-2-3), the club has been largely silent on offense.

As for tonight…

That will not do against the Penguins when the Capitals visit Pittsburgh this evening.  The Pens are 18-3-2 in their last 23 games since dropping consecutive games Thanksgiving week in November.  It has pushed the Penguins to a 16-point lead over the Caps in the Metropolitan Division standings.

Pittsburgh is doing this despite a rash of injuries that has carved large chunks of games out of critical players’ resumes this season:  Brooks Orpik, eight games missed.  Evgeni Malkin, 11 games.  Kris Letang, 19 games.  James Neal, 20 games. Rob Scuderi, 29 games.  Tomas Vokoun, the Penguins’ intended backup goalie, has yet to dress this season due to a blood clotting condition.  Pascal Dupuis, the Pens’ top line right wing, is likely out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.

What the Penguins are getting is night-in and night-out performances from Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz, the remainders on the top line.  “Night-in, night-out” has a special meaning for Crosby, who has yet to miss a game this season after missing 113 games over the past three seasons.  His 25-42-67 scoring line translates into a pace to finish 44-73-117.  No player has finished a season with that many points since Crosby did it (120 points) in 2006-2007.

On the other hand, Kunitz is a virtual lock to break his career high in goals.  He could do it in this game.  His 24 goals to date is on the doorstep of his 26-goal season with the Pens in 2011-2012, and he is on a pace to finish with 42 goals.

Much is made of the Penguins’ high powered offense and high-octane offensive stars, but this is also the eighth-best team in the league in scoring defense (tied with San Jose).  They have, however, been a bit leakier lately, allowing 14 goals in four games before shutting down Calgary on Saturday, 2-1.

The Pens and Caps are one-two in power play efficiency this season, but Pittsburgh is a much more efficient penalty killing team (87.5 percent, second in the league) than Washington (80.5 percent, tied for 17^th).  Pittsburgh is also a more efficient 5-on-5 team (1.10 ratio of goals scored to goals allowed) than Washington (0.94). And, while the Penguins are not an extraordinary team in terms of their possession numbers (tied for 14^th in Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations, 10^th in Fenwick-for), they are ranked higher than the Caps (21^st and 22^nd in those statistics, respectively).

It is a steep hill for the Caps to climb, but they have had success in Consol Energy Center.  And, despite the recent results, the Caps are playing a tighter game than they had been earlier in the season.  Pittsburgh might have some rust after sitting around since Saturday.  If the Caps can take advantage of that with a good start, it might very well be a good night.

Capitals 3 – Penguins 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 46: Sharks at Capitals, January 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take a step up in weight class in their schedule this week, starting with Tuesday’s tilt against the San Jose Sharks. 

The Capitals’ history against the Sharks is, to be kind, unpleasant.  Once upon a time, when the Sharks were merely pups, the Capitals owned the series.  Washington won the first five meetings in this series, but then things took a turn in 1993.  After scoring a total of 23 goals in the first five games between the clubs, the Caps managed just one goal in 18 shots against Sharks goalie Arturs Irbe in a 2-1 loss at USAir Arena in Landover, MD.

With that win, the momentum headed west.  Including that win, San Jose went 5-3-1 against the Caps over the next nine meetings.  Those ended what would be the “good old days" for the Caps in this series.  Since Washington beat the Sharks, 3-1, on February 20, 1999, the Caps are 1-15-1 against San Jose, a 4-1 win in October 2009 being the only win for the Caps in that span. 

What is more, the games generally have not been close.  Nine of the 15 San Jose wins have been of the two-or-more goal variety, five of them by three or more goals.  Only four times in those 17 games have the Caps solved the Sharks for more than two goals, only twice in their last 12 games against San Jose.

The current edition of the Sharks is a bit hard to figure out.  Looking at their record (28-12-6) and their position in the standings (second in the Pacific Division), they look once more like a solid playoff club and a possible Stanley Cup contender, their profile over the last decade.   However, the Sharks have hit a few potholes recently.  Since defeating the Anaheim Ducks in the front half of a back-to-back set on December 29^th, San Jose has alternated wins and losses (4-4-0).

Over those eight games the Sharks have a total of 22 goals, five of them from Joe Pavelski.  Not the biggest of centers (5’11”, 190), Pavelski finds a way to get things done.  With 21 goals so far this season he has already surpassed last year’s total (16), and his 37-goal pace would be a career best in eight seasons.  It is part of a longer hot streak for Pavelski, who has 12 goals in his last 16 games.  He has been a particular thorn in the side of the Capitals, going 5-4-9 in seven career games against Washington.

Only one active player has more career assists than does Joe Thornton.  If Jaromir Jagr, with his 1,030 assists at the moment, ever retires, Thornton will inherit the mantle of assist leader among active players, but the 832 assists he has in 1,171 games will have to do for second place for the time being.  In the 4-4-0 run over their last eight games, Thornton has eight assists, giving him a league-leading total of 45.  He is 12-24-36 in 35 career games against Washington.

If there is a surprise among the San Jose scorers of late, it might be defenseman Jason Demers.  Not generally known as an offensive defenseman (his career best is 21 points in 75 games in the 2010-2011 season), he is 1-5-6 in his last eight games and 3-6-9 in his last 11 contests.

Here is how the teams break down so far this season:

1.  San Jose does a lot of things fairly well, but they do not stand out from the pack in any individual area.  They are top ten in scoring offense, just outside the top ten in scoring defense.  They are top-ten in 5-on-5 goals scored/goals allowed ratio.  They are 11^th in power play, 11^th in penalty killing.  They lead the league in shots on goal per game, yet are also top-ten in fewest shots on goal allowed.  This is a team that can, at least in theory, find a lot of different ways to win when one part of their game or another is not working.

2.  What San Jose seems not to do especially well is win one-goal games.  They are tied for 14^th in winning percentage in one-goal contests, losing as many games as they win (11-5-6). 

3.  The Sharks are a very disciplined team.  They have the fourth fewest penalty minutes per game and the fewest minor penalties taken, and by a rather healthy margin (134 to 146 for Colorado).  No team has found itself shorthanded less often than the Sharks (2.6 times per game).

4.  San Jose puts teams away early.  They have outscored opponents by a 51-22 margin in the first period of games.  They have earned points in 21 of 22 games in which they took a lead into the first intermission (17-1-4).

5.  As one might expect with a club that does a lot of things well, the Sharks are an accomplished possession team.  In 5-on-5 close score situations San Jose is third in the league in Fenwick-for percentage,fourth in Corsi-for percentage.  If there is a crack, though, here is where it is.  The Sharks wobbled in their possession over their last four games, going over 50 percent in Fenwick-for and Corsi-for shares twice and falling short of 50 percent in both twice.  They also have shot in bad luck in those situations, twice with a shooting percentage of 0.0 in those four games (on 31 total shots).  They lost both games, 3-2 to Nashville and 1-0 to Boston.

1.  The Caps are 3-3-4 in their last 10 games.  They are 5-for-26 on the power play over those ten games (19.2 percent).  They are 1-1-4 in games in which they did not score a power play goal.  Coincidence?  We’re going to guess, “no.”  Too dependent on scoring power play goals for success.

2.  January has not yet been kind to the penalty killers, either.  The Caps are 12-for-18 for the month so far (66.7 percent) and 30-for-42 in their last 12 games (71.4 percent).

3.  Let’s say Braden Holtby gets a start.  Let’s just say.  He seems to have had focus issues so far.  Look at his save percentages by period -- .916 in the first period, .903 in the second, and .908 in the third.  And, if you take out the three times he was relieved in or after the first period, his first period save percentage is .939.  Something has been happening as games go on.

4.  The Caps have a curious statistic when allowing the first goal.  They do a better job than most of squeezing a point out of it.  No team has more overtime losses than the Caps when trailing first (six).  At least there is a point at the end of the day.

5.  The Caps are slowly, but surely climbing the possession charts.  They are up to 22^nd in Corsi-for percentage (48.6) and 24^th in Fenwick-for percentage, but within rounding error of 22^nd place (47.9 percent) in 5-on-5 close situations.  A lot of that is due to the Mike Green-Dmitry Orlov pair, who lead the team in those values, well to the good side of 50 percent.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Antti Niemi

Antti Niemi does not often appear on short lists of the best goaltenders in the game.  Part of that might be playing on the west coast, where players sometimes suffer a lack of attention that their east coast counterparts get.  But there is also the matter that he has not had an extraordinary record stopping pucks.  His save percentage this season -- .913 – is consistent with his career mark (.916).  But he does one thing consistently.  He wins; tied for second in the league at the moment (although he has done so in the league’s most appearances). 

However, his is a stat line this year of a strange character.  Only 12 times in 40 appearances so far has Niemi faced more than 30 shots on goal.  He is 7-2-3 in those games.  That’s not the strange part.  Only twice in those 12 instances did he face more than 30 shots against an Eastern Conference team – 36 in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to Buffalo and 37 in a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay.  Niemi is 3-0-1, 1.98, .927 in four career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Trooks Blaicher

It is one thing for the Caps to wait on whether Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin record a point in a game.  When paired on the top line they did it often, and the Caps were reasonably successful (although secondary scoring was an issue).  Over the last three games the Caps experimented with breaking up Ovechkin and Backstrom, giving Backstrom the assignment of spinning straw into gold.  That is, making Troy Brouwer and Brooks Laich productive on the second forward line.  To date, things have not gone well.  The trio has one point in three games at even strength, that one coming against the Toronto Maple Leafs when Nicklas Backstrom pilfered a puck and scored unassisted.  If this experiment continues, this line has to produce…something.

Keys:

1.  Shots.  This is going to be really simple.  If the Caps are getting eight or fewer shots per period in this game, it is the Sharks setting the tone. 

2.  Jumbo Package.  Joe Thornton has two or more assists in 11 games this season.  San Jose is 11-0-0 in those games.  In games where he does not record a helper, the Sharks are 2-7-3. No Joe, no-go.

3.  Balance.  This is going to be a continuing theme going forward.  The Caps are 20-9-5 when either or both of Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin record a point (20-5-2 when Backstrom gets a point).  They are 2-7-2 when neither posts a mark on the score sheet.  The Caps need to be more than just these two.

In the end…

You cannot like the Caps chances in this game.  San Jose has owned this team as no other has – not even the Pittsburgh Penguins – over the last, oh, 20 years.  There is also the little matter of the Sharks just being a better team on paper.  Ah, but the Sharks have struggled against the Metro so far this season (2-2-1), and the Sharks are 1-3-0 in the eastern time zone of the U.S. This will be the Sharks’ first trip into the eastern time zone since they dropped consecutive games in back-to-back fashion at Pittsburgh and at Carolina back on December 5-6 (yes, we’re reaching, it’s what we do sometimes). 

But there is this, perhaps more concrete notion.  San Jose is neither an especially productive road team (12-10-3), nor are they especially effective killing penalties (78.2 percent on the road).  Both play into the Capitals’ strengths.  And, San Jose comes into this game in less than fine fettle.  Five players are on injured reserve, including three significant offensive cogs – Tomas Hertl, Martin Havlat, and Logan Couture. 

This game has a familiar look to it.  If you look at it in a certain way, the Caps have the Sharks right where they want them.  Last season the Boston Bruins visited Verizon Center with a 14-3-2 record, sitting on top of the world.  The Caps were 8-11-1 and tied for last in the Southeast Division, 3-3-0 in their previous six games.  The Caps fell behind, 3-0, in the first period of that one, and then made it all up in what would be a 4-3 overtime win.  History repeats, and changes in the process…

Capitals 4 – Sharks 3

Washington Capitals: A ONE point night -- Game 45: Sabres 2 - Capitals 1 (OT/Gimmick)

There are good one-point games, and there are bad one-point games.  The Washington Capitals experienced the latter in losing a 2-1 decision to the Buffalo Sabres in the freestyle competition for the second time in two weeks.

The Capitals could not even take solace in the fact that the goal that they scored was even a goal that they scored.  Washington opened the scoring, as it were, 11 minutes into the first period on a play that started when Jason Chimera took a pass from Joel Ward at the Buffalo blue line.  Chimera skated down the left wing boards with Sabre defenseman Mark Pysyk keeping himself between Chimera and the Sabre net.  What Pysyk could not do, however, was close a passing lane that Chimera exploited to get the puck to the front of the Buffalo net where Marcus Johansson was headed.  The pass never reached Johansson, though.  Center Brian Flynn, trying to do the right thing by backchecking Johansson, managed only to get his stick on the pass, redirecting it past goalie Ryan Miller and into his own net.

That goal might have stood up for the rest of the period – the rest of the game, in fact.  However, Tom Wilson was whistled for a charging penalty at the 17:28 mark.  With Wilson in the box, Buffalo converted the power play opportunity with just 1:51 left in the period when Tyler Ennis pulled the puck loose from a group of bodies in front of goalie Philipp Grubauer, then lifted it over a sprawling Grubauer to tie the game.

That was it.  For the second time this season the Caps and the Sabres played 65 minutes to a 1-1 draw.  And, for the second time this season the Sabres would ride Ryan Miller’s perfect slate in the Gimmick, stopping all three attempts he faced, until they could get a goal of their own, this time courtesy of Cody Hodgson, who ended matters in the third round when he snapped the puck over Grubauer’s left pad and into the back of the net.

Other stuff…

-- Buffalo has defeated just two teams on two occasions this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs and now the Capitals.

-- Hey, how’s that second line experiment working?  Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich, and Troy Brouwer combined for four shots (Laich had a shorthanded shot on goal), three penalties, and no points. In three games that makes 13 shots at even strength among them, four penalties, and one point, that one recorded on an unassisted goal by Nicklas Backstrom off a turnover against Toronto.

-- Ryan Miller has played 130 minutes against the Caps this season and has stopped 77 of 79 shots.  That is a 0.92 goals against average and a .975 save percentage.  Oh, and he stopped all nine trick shot attempts in the two games for good measure.

-- Philipp Grubauer has not been quite as conspicuous as Miller in these games, but he has been almost as effective.  In his two games facing Miller he stopped 46 of 48 shots in 130 minutes, a 0.92 goals against average and a .958 save percentage.

-- You could say the Caps skated in bad luck.  With the clock ticking down to two minutes left in regulation Miller made a stupendous stick save of a point blank attempt by Mikhail Grabovski, getting the bottom edge of his blade on the puck as it was about to cross the goal line, deflecting it out of the air and past the post.  Then, with 53 seconds left in the game it appeared that the Caps finally solved Miller, courtesy of Karl Alzner, of all people.  However, just before Alzner found the back of the net, the referee signaled a penalty against Nicklas Backstrom for tripping (nudging, bumping, jostling) Cody Hodgson.  Finally, in the Gimmick, Alex Ovechkin had a chance, maneuvering Miller down to the ice, but he could not lift a forehand over Miller’s left pad, and the lanky goaltender padded the puck away.  But hey, c’mon… they needed luck?  Against Buffalo??

-- The Caps did not get much in the way of power play opportunities, two of them in fact.  Not that they did anything with what they had.  One shot on goal, that one coming from John Carlson.  The Caps finished with more shorthanded shots on goal (two).

-- Connor Carrick recorded his first NHL career assist on the Chimera goal.  More impressive, perhaps, was that he finished the game with three more minutes of ice time at even strength (16:44) than either Carlson (13:45) or Alzner (13:44).

-- Carlson and Alzner, it should be noted, was the pair with the least amount of even strength ice time in this game.  Mike Green and Dmitry Orlov each had more than 20 minutes of even strength ice time alone.

-- Aaron Volpatti had a high-energy evening, six hits credited in just 7:37 of ice time.  What is more surprising is that Nicklas Backstrom was credited with the next highest number of hits for the Caps (five).

-- Failing to get an extra standings point in regulation or overtime, the Caps are once more tied with the New York Islanders for last in the Metropolitan Division in regulation and overtime wins (14).

One can imagine at the end of this season regretting the two standings points the Caps left on the table with the pair of trick shot losses to the worst team in the league.  Yes, Ryan Miller is certainly a world class goalie, but the Caps had their chances, too, especially in this game, and did not bury them.  The way things stand on this Sunday evening is that there are now five points separating the second-place Capitals and the seventh-place Columbus Blue Jackets in the Metro Division.

That tight bunching of teams puts pressure on the Caps to lift their game to a level not displayed against the Sabres.  San Jose and Pittsburgh are next up on the schedule, back-to-back games at that.  Then the Caps get a couple of road tests in the division, at Columbus and at the New York Rangers.  How daunting is this part of the schedule?  The Caps are 1-15-1 in their last 17 meetings against San Jose.  Pittsburgh is 18-3-1 since they lost consecutive games before Thanksgiving.  Columbus has won three in a row and four of their last five contests, including two shutouts.  The Rangers have the same recent record – three straight wins and four in their last five games, and they still have Henrik Lundqvist, as if Ryan Miller was not enough.

This is a week coming up that, when the ice chips settle, could be very ugly or a turning point of the season for the Caps.  It might have been made more important for those two standings points the Caps left on the table to the Buffalo Sabres in the last two weeks.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 15

When wounded, stop the bleeding.  The Washington Capitals did just that in Week 15.  It was not the prettiest, nor was it the most dominating of weeks, but wins are wins.  All of them are worth two points.  And the Caps took all the points available to them in Week 15.

Record: 2-0-0

The Caps were wounded in Week 14 with an 0-2-2 record that dropped them to third in the Metropolitan Division.  By the time they took the ice for the first time in Week 15 they were in fourth place in the Division and out of the playoff-eligible mix.  A 4-3 win on Thursday against the Tampa Bay Lightning elevated them into third place in the Metro, and a 3-2 win the following night against the Toronto Maple Leafs pushed the Caps back into striking distance for second place in The Metro.  When the Philadelphia Flyers lost to the Lightning on Saturday to overtake the Capitals in games played, Washington was back in second place in the division to end the week.

Offense:  3.50/game (season: 2.89 / rank: T-7th)

The shooting this week was a tight grouping. Seven goals were shared by six different players, but only ten skaters shared the points overall.  Eric Fehr was the only Capital with two goals, both of them against Tampa Bay, the second one a last-minute game winner.  It was part of an interesting week, not only for Fehr, but for his new linemates.  Head Coach Adam Oates juggled the lines, splitting up Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, putting Ovechkin on a line with Fehr and Mikhail Grabovski.  That line accounted for three goals for the week (Ovechkin getting the other), and Graboovski and Ovechkin were on ice together for a power play goal.

The flip side of that move – matching Nicklas Backstrom with Brooks Laich and Troy Brouwer on the wings – did not go as swimmingly.  Backstrom had two points for the week, an assist on a power play goal and an unassisted goal of his own.  Neither Brouwer nor Laich recorded a point.

A note about Mike Green’s week.  Green recorded three assists in the two games to extend his points streak to three games.  His two assists against Tampa Bay on Thursday was his second two-helper game of the year and first since Opening Night in Chicago.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.93 / rank: 21st)

It was an interesting week at the other end of the rink.  Two games, twice the Caps took leads, twice they gave them up before closing Tampa Bay and Toronto out.  For the four even strength goals scored against the Caps for the week, it was the top two forward lines being on ice for all of them.  The Backstrom-Laich-Brouwer line was on for two goals against, the Grabovski-Fehr-Ovechkin was on for one. The other was a mix, Backstrom-Fehr-Ovechkin on for that goal.

The Caps continue to let shots accumulate, 70 in the two games this week and it was against two teams whose combined shots on goal averages add up to 57 shots.  The Tampa Bay game had the most disturbing elements in this regard for the week.  After the Caps took a 3-1 lead to the locker room after one period, they were outshot 6-1 by the Lightning before the Bolts scored to make the score 3-2.  Then, the Lightning outshot the Caps by a 13-7 margin over the next 27:45 before tying the game at the 14:30 mark of the third period.

It was, though, a good possession week for the Caps, lightening the load on the defense.  In two games the Caps were just two Corsi events below 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.5 percent) and six events under 50 percent for Fenwick –for percentage (47.9 percent).  In 5-on-5 close score situations, the percentages were much better for the Caps – 53.3 percent Corsi-for and 51.0 percent Fenwick-for. 

Goaltending: 2.50 GAA / .929 save percentage (season: 2.81 / .916 / 1 shutout)

Three goalies, two games.  Someone had to sit.  Given the way Philipp Grubauer has played lately, it was reasonable to think he would get one of the back-to-back games.  He did, getting the call in Tampa against the Lightning on Thursday.  He was solid, allowing his first goal on a breakaway and his last one on a tip-in.  The one in the middle, a shot on the rush by B.J. Crombeen, was one he might have wanted back, but facing 36 shots for the game, he had a decent night.

That left the back-half of the back-to-back.  Braden Holtby, right?  Nope.  Michal Neuvirth got the call, seven weeks to the day since he last appeared in a game (a 3-2 Gimmick loss to Montreal).  He had not recorded a win more than two months.  He was, by his own admission, nervous.    He more than held his own, allowing a goal on a redirect and another when a shot clicked off the stick of a defenseman to change its path. 

Meanwhile, the missing man – Braden Holtby – has had one appearance since December 21^st, a span of eight games in all.  There is another back-to-back coming up this week.  The question is whether that means Holtby gets another crack at the net.

Power Play: 2-7 / 28.6 percent (season: 25.5 percent / rank: 1st)

It was an uneven week for what is now the league’s best power play.  And, it was against form, to boot.  The Caps knocked down two of three chances against the Tampa Bay Lightning, a very much improved defensive team.  A tip-in by Mikhail Grabovski and a wrap-around stuff by Marcus Johansson were the successes among five shots taken in 4:46 of power play time.  Against Toronto, however, a team that gives up shots like a bartender at happy hour, the Caps managed only seven shots in eight full minutes of four unsuccessful power plays.  It was the first time that the Caps drew a blank on four or more power plays in a game since going 0-for-4 against Montreal on November 29^th.

Penalty Killing: 3-4 / 75.0 percent (season: 80.4 percent /rank: 19th)

On a percentage basis, it was not the best of weeks.  But there is only that one power play goal against on the Caps’ ledger.  That one was one of those things.  Phil Kessel had the puck along the boards for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and as he inched down the wall, James van Riemsdyk was jostling with John Carlson in front of Michal Neuvirth.  Carlson took a peek to get a bead on where van Riemsdyk was, but then he wandered ever so slightly away, perhaps thinking Kessel was going to try a cross ice pass through the slot.  Kessel shot the puck instead, and with Carlson unable provide resistance, van Riemsdyk deflected the Kessel shot past Neuvirth’s left arm and inside the left post.

The key was opportunities.  Four shorthanded situations faced for the week is a season low for the Caps for a week’s worth of action.  Even though there will be those times when there is a “good penalty” to take, to prevent what looks like a sure score, the most effective penalty kill is the one you don’t have to face.  You will always be 100 percent on those situations.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 5-4 (season 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.93 / rank: T-17th)

It was a good week at even strength for the Caps, on balance.  Of the five goals scored at even strength in Week 15, two of them tied games, three others gave the Caps a lead, including both game-winning goals.  On the other hand, three of the four even strength goals allowed by the Caps gave opponents a lead.  It was a close week.

It might have been a better week in this regard had the Caps recorded more shots on goal and allowed fewer.  Washington was 5-for-42 shooting at even strength for the week (11.9 percent shooting percentage), while opponents were 4-for-58 (6.9 percent).  That’s almost three shots per period more for opponents at even strength.  That puts goaltending under considerable pressure to perform.

Faceoffs: 62-127 / 48.8 percent (season: 49.7 percent / rank: 16th)

It was more or less an even week in the circle for the Caps.  There was one noteworthy aspect to it, that being Nicklas Backstrom’s performance against Tampa Bay on Thursday.  He was 1-for-9 in the defensive zone and was particularly taken advantage of by Valteri Filppula, who won all five draws against Backstrom in the Caps’ end (must be a Sweden/Finland thing).

Apart from Backstrom’s frustrations against Tampa Bay it was a pretty good week for the Caps in the defensive end of the ice, where they went 28-for-53 (52.8 percent), 27-for-44 apart from Backstrom’s bobble (61.4 percent).  That was thanks, in large part, to Mikhail Grabovski, who was 10-for-12 in the defensive end for the week.

Goals For/Against by Period:

Three goals in the first period against Tampa Bay put the Lightning in a hole out of which they could not quite climb all the way.  It was a rare week in which the Caps outscored teams in the first period, all of the goals in the opening frame coming against the Lightning.  Other than that, the fact that the Caps allowed two goals in the third period might not be considered too bad, but for one thing.  One goal was of the game-tying variety against Tampa Bay, the other gave Toronto a lead against the Caps.  No “score effect” there.

In the end…

The Caps stopped the bleeding.  They did not do it in an especially dominating sort of way; they had to score last in both of the week’s games to scratch out a pair of one-goal wins.  Scratching them out might be an apt description.  They went into the Tampa Times Forum and beat a team that had a 14-4-2 home record before the Caps arrived in town.  The, against the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Caps took a punch in the nose, punched back and punched back some more with abandon, and used the energy to squeeze out another win.  All in all, it was not a pretty week, but it was a winning week, and that is the whole object of the exercise.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 45: Sabres at Capitals, January 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

When you are looking for perspective in sports and a quote to capture the times, do not go to football, where clichés are the currency of the locker room.  Do not go to basketball, where the slam dunk is evidence of nuance.  Do not even go to hockey, where earnestness and youth suggest a certain callowness, a lack of depth.

Go to baseball.  And who other than the immortal Lou Brown, former manager of the Toledo Mud Hens and the Cleveland Indians, could capture what the current state of the Washington Capitals is…

“OK, we won a game on Thursday. We won on Friday.  It's called "two in a row".  And if we win again on Sunday, it's called a ‘winning streak’... It has happened before.”

That about covers it.  The Capitals, winners of games on Thursday and Friday against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs, step back onto the ice on Sunday afternoon against the Buffalo Sabres at Verizon Center.

The Sabres come into this game with the league’s worst record, 12-26-5.  Only once all season have the Sabres won consecutive games in regulation; only twice have they pieced together two consecutive wins at all.  No Sabre who has been with the team all season…

• Ranks in the top 150 scorers (Cody Hodgson, tied for 194^th)
• Ranks in the top 150 in goal scorers (Hodgson and Tyler Ennis, tied for 155^th)
• Ranks in the top 150 in assists (Christian Ehrhoff, tied for 164^th)

It gets worse.  No Sabre who has been with the club for half its games played has a plus-minus better than minus-4 (Bryan Flynn in 41 games).  The Sabres do have five of the top 69 players in the league in penalty minutes.  The Sabres have not won a road game in regulation time in more than two months (October 25^th, a 3-1 win at Florida), and they have lost 11 road games in a row (0-9-2).

The only thing keeping this woeful band from challenging the Capitals for all-time futility is Ryan Miller in goal.  Miller, who is facing an astonishing 37.2 shots per 60 minutes of play, has a save percentage of .927, sixth best in the league.  Only five times in 30 appearances to date has Miller faced fewer than 30 shots on goal, games in which he has a record of 3-2-0.  Of particular note in this game, Miller has yet to face fewer than 30 shots in a road game this season.  Not that it has affected his save percentage, which is only three ticks lower (.925) than it is at home (.928).  He is getting next to no help in front of him.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  It is hard to know whether it is injuries, ineffectiveness, wanting to look at a lot of players in a long season, or a combination of such factors, but the Sabres have had a lot of churn in their lineup.  Only 12 skaters have appeared in more than 30 of the team’s 43 games to date.  A total of 32 skaters have pulled on a Sabres sweater so far this season, a number surely to go higher as the team starts unloading players as a seller in this lost season.

2.  No Sabre, regardless of whether they are currently with the team or not, has a “plus” rating on the road this season.  Marcus Foligno is “even” in the most games played.

3.  If there is one thing Buffalo has done reasonably well lately, it is kill penalties.  Over their last 14 games the Sabres killed off 39 of 42 power plays (92.9 percent).  In nine of those contests they faced three or fewer shorthanded situations.  Only once did they face as many as five.

4.  Pity their power play is not as effective, at least from the perspective of a Sabres fan.  Buffalo is 6-for-61 (9.8 percent) over their last 19 games.  Five times in that stretch the Sabres had five or more power plays and were only 4-for-26 in those games (15.4 percent).

5.  When a team spends little time in “5-on-5 close score” situations, that might signal that they are a good team, that they get leads, add to them, and hold them.  If you go to the extraskater.com Web site,  you will find that this is, in fact, true.  St. Louis and San Jose, both of them teams on the far side of 60 standings points earned so far, have spent the least amount of time in 5-on-5 close score situations.  On the other hand, Buffalo has spent a fair amount of time in those situations, the 12^th highest minute total in fact.  But they do so little with it.  They have the worst Corsi-for percentage and the worst Fenwick-for percentage.  They have the fourth worst PDO (sum of shooting and save percentages), despite having the 11^th best save percentage.  The trouble is that they can’t get that goal to put them over.  They have the worst shooting percentage (4.8 percent) and, as a result, the worst goals for/goals against ratio in the league in that situation, giving up 56 goals while scoring only 26 themselves. 

1.  With the two one-goal wins coming into this game the Capitals now rank third in the league in one-goal wins.  Of their 44 games played to date, 24 of them have been decided by one goal.  Only six teams have played in more.  Maybe you think this is a good thing.  Maybe it’s not; five of the six teams with more one-goal games played are below the Caps in the standings (Montreal is the exception).

2.  Even with outshooting Toronto Friday night, only the Maple Leafs and Buffalo have been outshot in games more often (37 and 42 times, respectively) than the Caps (30).

3.  The Caps do not take leads into the locker room at the first intermission often, and when they do things to not end as they should.  Only 11 times in 44 games have the Caps led after 20 minutes.  Only five times have teams carried leads into the second period fewer times, and the Caps have the seventh worst winning percentage in the league in those instances.  On the other hand, they are still one of ten teams yet to lose a game in regulation when taking a lead into the third period.

4.  Alex Ovechkin has assists in three straight games.  It is the first time he has done that in-season since getting helper in three straight games March 2-7 last season.  Maybe this assist thing should happen more often.  The Caps are 9-4-1 this season when Ovechkin records an assist, 11-12-5 games played when he does not (does not include two games missed to injury).

5.  Possession is a fickle mistress.  In their last six games the Caps have been on the good side of 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations.  They are just 2-2-2 in those games, but they do have those two consecutive wins coming into this contest.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo:  Matt Moulson

Since the 2009-2010 season only 16 players in the NHL have recorded a total of 125 goals or more.  You would recognize the names of Alex Ovechkin or Steven Stamkos, perhaps even James Neal and Patrick Marleau.  But Matt Moulson?  Yes, he is one of those 16.  In fact, only 11 players have more goals in that span of time than Moulson.  He also happens to be one of the most durable players in the league.  He has not missed a game to injury over those four-plus seasons (he missed one game last year to the flu).  He is the very embodiment of the term “underrated.” 

His scoring with the Sabres has come in fits and starts, though.  He has two goals in his first start with the Sabres after being traded to Buffalo with two draft picks by the New York Islanders for Thomas Vanek in late November.  He had consecutive games with goals twice, once at the end of November and again in mid-December.  However, since those goals in consecutive games back on December 14-17, Moulson has two goals in his last nine games.  He is 4-4-8 in 16 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Braden Holtby

So, is Braden Holtby now number three on the goaltending depth chart?  On the not-so-merry-go-round of Capitals goaltending these days, Michal Neuvirth had a solid outing in his first game in seven weeks in Friday’s 3-2 win over Toronto.  That makes Holtby low man on the totem pole in terms of ice time lately.  He has one appearance since December 21^st, a span of eight games without an appearance.  And that one did not go nearly as well as hoped. A lot of goaltenders go through slumps, through crises of confidence, through dark nights of the soul early in their careers.  Remember, Holtby has not yet appeared in 100 regular season games.  Here is one thing arguing against Holtby starting against the Sabres.  This is a 3:00 start; Holtby is 3-2-0, 2.83, with just a .902 save percentage in career day games.  Still, he has to get back on the horse some time.

Keys:

1.  Spike Ryan Miller’s morning coffee.  Fifty shots, one goal.  That was what the Caps managed against Miller in the Sabres’ 2-1 Gimmick win over Washington on December 29^th.  If he’s that sharp, it might not matter what the Caps do otherwise.  Maybe he’s been bored, though.  He faced a total of only 53 shots in two appearances since that game.

2.  Nyah-nyah.  One of the things that worked against the Caps in the previous meeting of these clubs was that the Caps had but two power plays (the Sabres had none…watch to see who the refs are for this one; Rob Martell and Wes McCauley officiated the last one).  Buffalo’s penalty kill has been very good of late, but the Caps are second in the league on the power play and are three for their last nine chances.  If they can get the Sabres to take penalties, all the better.

3. Spike Ryan Miller’s morning coffee again.

In the end…

It has been a month since the Caps had a three-game winning streak.  On paper, that should be remedied in this game.  And, as a practical matter, it had better be.  After what looks (repeat, “looks”) like a walk-over game, the schedule gets a lot tougher with San Jose and Pittsburgh looming later in the week.  That is where the danger in this game lies, looking ahead.  That is the kind of thing, coupled with Ryan Miller (if he should be nearly as sharp as the last time these teams met), that could make for a maddeningly frustrating sort of game.  It will not be without its moments, but in the end…

Capitals 3 – Sabres 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 44: Capitals 3 - Maple Leafs 2

When the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs took the ice last night at Verizon Center, the theme might have been “Fire Away Friday.”  The Caps and Leafs ranked 29^th and 30^th, respectively, in shots allowed per game.  Washington, despite some fine play by goalie Philipp Grubauer, had allowed three or more goals in four consecutive games before last night, while goals were being poured into the Leafs’ net – 18 in their previous three games – as if no one was playing in goal.

It might have been a surprise, then, that only five goals would be scored in this game, the Caps getting three of them in a 3-2 win to vault them into a tie with the Philadelphia Flyers for second place in standings points in the Metropolitan Division.

It was the first appearance for Caps goalie Michal Neuvirth in seven weeks, since dropping a 3-2 decision to the Montreal Canadiens on November 22^nd.  It also happened to be the first time Neuvirth started a game against Leafs goalie Jonathan Bernier since the two squared off in Game 6 of the Calder Cup semifinals in 2010.  Neuvirth won that one, 3-2 in overtime, to send the Hershey Bears past the Manchester Monarchs to the Cup final.

In this one, Neuvirth the Nervous and Bernier the Bombshelled (having faced an average of 37 shots in his previous six appearances) stopped all of the shots they faced in the first period, 25 in all (13 by Neuvirth, 12 by Bernier).

At 6:39 of the second period, though, the seal was broken on this fine bottle of wine of a game.  It started with Mike Green being a pest along the right wing boards.  Having pinched down the boards, Green occupied three Leafs, first James van Riemsdyk to poke the puck down the wall, then Tim Gleason and Tyler Bozak as Green kept digging and poking at the puck to keep it alive.  Green freed the puck off the wall to where Mikhail Grabovski could secure it.  Grabovski curled toward the middle and found Alex Ovechkin open on the weak side where no Leaf could be found (thanks, Mike Green).  Ovechkin wasted no time burying the puck past Bernier for his 32^nd goal, matching his total of last year.

The Capitals being who they are, though, the lead would not last.  Van Riemsdyk tied the game less than three minutes after the Ovechkin goal when he redirected a Phil Kessel shot from the right wing wall over Neuvirth’s left arm and inside the near post.  The Leafs took the lead in the first minute of the third period when van Riemsdyk and Kessel traded places on the score sheet.  Kessel dug out a loose puck at the Leafs goal line and fed it up to van Riemsdyk on the left wing.  Van Riemsdyk skated the puck into the neutral zone and returned the puck to Kessel as he was approaching the Caps’ blue line (yes, Caps fans, Kessel was onside).  As Kessel flipped the puck at the net, defenseman Karl Alzner got the blade of his stick on the shot.  He didn’t get enough of it.  The puck changed its line just enough to dart past Neuvirth’s left shoulder and inside the left post to give Toronto a 2-1 lead.

Less than four minutes later it was Nicklas Backstrom to the rescue with an assist from… Jay McClement?  That’s right.  The whole thing started when Troy Brouwer broke his stick on a shot attempt.  Brouwer and defenseman Tim Gleason followed the puck to the corner where Brouwer kicked it down the wall.  McClement, with Brooks Laich bearing down on him, backhanded the puck along the back wall to Cody Franson behind the net. The puck was too long for Franson, though, and it was gobbled up by Backstrom.  From behind the net Backstrom circled out, spun, and threw the puck at the net. It looked to be headed wide on the long side, but then the Leafs went all weird.  Gleason, who was guarding the front of the net, had the presence of mind to lift his right skate to let the puck go through.  However, McClement, who was stepping out from behind the net, was neither so prescient nor so fortunate.  As he appeared from behind the cage, the puck struck his left skate and deflected into the net.

The Caps got their game-winner on the power play that wasn’t.  David Clarkson was sent off on a tripping penalty at the 9:44 mark.  The Leafs managed to burn off the two minutes, but could not clear the puck out of their zone.  The Caps spread the formation.  Green kept an attempted Carl Gunnarsson clear at the right point.  Green sent it across to Alex Ovechkin at the left point.  Ovechkin threaded the needle in the middle, sending a pass to Marcus Johansson at the far edge of the right wing circle.  Johansson slid the puck into the middle to Joel Ward.  Ward one-timed the puck past Bernier just seven seconds after the penalty to Clarkson expired.  Game, 3-2.

Other stuff...

-- For Ovechkin the game had several noteworthy accomplishments.  With his goal, Ovechkin has 62 goals in his last 82 games. His two-point game was his first in nine games.  However, it was his fourth straight game with at least one point.  He was also a plus-1.  Whatever one attaches to the plus-minus statistic, it has not been kind to Ovechkin this season (he is a minus-15 on the year).  It was his second straight “plus” game, the first time he has done that since ending on the plus side of the ledger against Detroit and St. Louis on November 15-17.

-- For Neuvirth it marked his highest save total (32) in a win this season.  OK, so it was only his third win.  Here is an odd Neuvirth stat.  He has a save percentage of better than .900 in five straight appearances.  At the moment that is the longest active streak for a Caps goalie.

-- More Neuvirth… in eight appearances this season, only once has he allowed more than three goals.

-- Here is an odd power play statistic for the Caps.  They drew a blank on four power play opportunities in this game.  It is the first time that the Caps had four or more man advantages without a goal since going 0-for-4 against Montreal on November 29^th.  They had been 7-for-7 in getting at least one goal when getting four or more opportunities.

-- Another odd stat, this one involving John Erskine.  Six of the 16 shifts Erskine skated last night ended not with a shift change, but with a penalty.  Twice, those penalties were his.  His fight against Colton Orr was his first bout of the season.  He certainly didn’t pick a cream puff, but he reduced Orr to one.  Orr got the first punch off, but after that it was pretty much all Erskine until he flattened Orr with a straight right to his left eye.  It was the third time those two squared off in their respective NHL careers, the first time either did so for their respective current teams.

-- Meanwhile, Tom Wilson… five minutes of ice time, five minutes in penalty time, one shot, one hit, one fight (he is tied for third in the league in fighting majors).  It is a hard apprenticeship the young man is being asked to serve.  One hopes it hardens him, not breaks him.

-- All in all it was an oddly disciplined game for the Caps.  Of the 18 penalty minutes with which they were charged, nine of them were charged to Erskine (who also received a double minor, cancelled in part by a coincidental roughing minor to Dion Phaneuf), five to Wilson, two to Aaron Volpatti.  That’s 16 of the 18 minutes to fourth liners who don’t kill penalties and a defenseman who might have given the Caps a lift with his bout and who himself does not kill penalties.  Ah, but the odd penalty in that mix, the one to Mikhail Grabovski for tripping?  That’s the one the Leafs converted.

-- More “Backstrom to the Rescue.”  Nicklas Backstrom was 8-for-14 in offensive zone faceoffs.  The rest of the team was 2-for-10.

-- Joel Ward, who had his 13^th goal of the season in this game, has now tied his second highest goal total for a season (13 in 71 games in 2009-2010 with Nashville) and is within sight of his career best (17 in 2008-1009 with the Predators).

In the end, it was a game that started slowly, took on a rock ‘em-sock ‘em theme in the second period, then was a closely fought game in the third.  Michal Neuvirth, if he did nothing else, improved his trade value.  He might have done more, though.  He was solid after a seven-week hiatus.  Both goals he allowed were redirects, one off the stick of a teammate.  He was otherwise sound and sturdy.  This was his night.