The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 14: Hurricanes at Capitals, November 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

For the second time in a week, the Washington Capitals head back to D.C. after skating on the road to face the second half of a back-to-back set of games at Verizon Center.  Last week it was a game in Tampa against the Lightning on Saturday followed up by a contest with the Arizona Coyotes the following night downtown on F Street.  This week it is a Friday tilt in Chicago against the Blackhawks followed by a quick trip back to Washington to face the Carolina Hurricanes at The Phone Booth.

The ‘Canes are coming into the second half of their own set of back-to-back games, having beaten the Columbus Blue Jackets in Raleigh on Friday night.  Oddly enough, that contest against Columbus was the back-half of a home-and-home set of games against the Blue Jackets.

Carolina started the 2014-2015 season as if they were determined to win the top spot (or bottom, if you will) in the Connor McDavid Sweepstakes.  The Hurricanes did not win a game in October, losing their first eight games (0-6-2), the first time in team history that they club went without a win in its first eight contests.  It was not as if the Hurricanes were unlucky.  They were outscored 32-15 (4.0 – 1.9 per game).  Their power play was 5-for-26, a respectable 19.2 percent, made less so by the fact that it was 1-for-17 in the last six games of the month (5.9 percent) after going 4-for-9 in their first two games.  The penalty kill was 23-for-29, not bad (79.3 percent), but they could see “bad” from there.

Things have changed, though.  The Hurricanes have won four in a row to start November.  They have done it with defense and goaltending.  While Carolina has scored a respectable 13 goals in those four games (3.25 per game), they allowed only six goals 1.50 per game.  Cam Ward was the goalie of record in each of the four wins.  It has been a tale of two four-game segments for Ward.  In his first four segments he was 0-3-1, 3.95, .840.  In his last four, Ward is 4-0-0, 1.48, .944, with one shutout.  Ward has spent a lot of his career facing the Caps, 33 of his 469 games in the NHL.  In those appearances he is 16-12-4, 2.56, .921, with four shuouts. 

It will not be Ward facing the Caps, though.  Coach Bill Peters said last night it would be Anton Khudobin getting the call for Saturday night’s game.  Khudobin has not had the spark after a slow start the Ward has had, with a record of 0-3-1, 3.24, .891 in his four appearances so far.  He has not appeared in a game since October 24^th, when he allowed five goals on 28 shots in a 6-3 loss to the Edmonton Oilers.  Khudobin is 3-1-0, 2.74, .913 in four career appearances against Washington.

If there is a Hurricane to watch in this game, it will be Elias Lindholm.  The fifth overall draft pick in 2013 is 4-2-6 in the Hurricane’s four-game winning streak, including the game winning goal in three of the wins, one of them the overtime winner last night against Columbus.  In three appearances against the Caps in his young career, Lindholm has one goal on one shot.

Here is how the Caps and 'Canes compare so far this season:
 

1.  Whatever Carolina’s recent good fortune, they have lost each period so far this season, outscored by 10-8 in the first period of games, 14-9 in the second, and 13-10 in the third period.  In that four-game winning streak, however, the profile is different, outscoring teams 5-1 in the first, 5-3 in the second, and holding them even in the third, 2-2.  Carolina has the only overtime goal, that coming last night against the Blue Jackets.

2. Only three teams in the league have scored fewer 5-on-5 goals than the Hurricanes (18).  Winnipeg, Buffalo, and Florida are those teams behind Carolina. At the other end, only seven teams have allowed more 5-on-5 goals than the Hurricanes (27).

3.  Carolina has been an equal opportunity loser so far.  They have a sub-.500 winning percentage in one-goal games (2-1-2), two-goal games (1-2), and decisions of three or more games (1-3).

4.  If the Caps out-shoot the Hurricanes, it is a good indicator that the Hurricanes are in trouble.  Carolina is 0-4-2 when teams out-shoot them.

5. Just don’t give up the first goal against the Hurricanes.  Carolina is 4-0-1 when scoring first, 0-6-1 when allowing the first goal.  They are the only team without a regulation loss when scoring first and without a win when allowing the first goal.  Carolina and Buffalo are the only teams without a win when trailing first in games.

1.  Last night was the Caps’ first win of the season when allowing the game’s first goal (1-4-3). 

2.  Only four teams have more 5-on-5 goals than the 28 scored by the Caps.  Last season the Caps were tied for 21^st in 5-on-5 goals scored.

3.  Last night was the Caps’ second win of the season when not scoring a power play goal, their first in regulation time.  They are 2-1-1 in such games.

4.  The Caps improved to 2-3-3 in one-goal decisions, but that just means they are still 29^th in the league in winning percentage in such games, with only Colorado behind them.

5.  Last night was the first time that the Caps allowed 40 shots in a game this season.  Last season they allowed 40 or more shots 13 times with a 7-4-2 record in those games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Alexander Semin

No goals, three assists, three points, three more seasons at $7 million per after this one.  Not exactly a “value” player, eh?  Alexander Semin has been all but invisible in ten games so far this season.  He has been a healthy scratch twice in his last four games.  He did manage an assist against Columbus last night, he first point since he recorded two assists against the New York Islanders in Game 2 on October 11^th.  It is part of what looks to be a slow air leak in his production ever since he arrived in Carolina.  After he closed the 2012-2013 season fast with three goals in his last four games, he has 22 in 75 games over the last two seasons, not exactly what Carolina fans might have had in mind when he was signed away from the Capitals.  In nine career games against the Caps, Semin is 2-5-7, minus-2.

Washington: Nate Schmidt

The Caps sign two big-name free agent defensemen.  Mike Green enjoys a resurgence from the blue line.  John Carlson and Karl Alzner have their faithful fan followings.  Dmitry Orlov is recuperating from a broken arm.  Meanwhile, there is Nate Schmidt, plugging along.  He is not getting a lot of ice time (14:30 a game, sixth among the regular six defensemen), but he is managing it well.  He does not have a point (the only one of the regular six without one), but he is a plus-7, best on the team, and he has been on ice for only five goals against, again best on the team.  Not every defenseman is an Erik Karlsson (or a Mike Green) in the offensive end, and not every defenseman is Shea Weber in the defensive end.  Some guys are effective without anyone knowing about it.  Consider yourself informed. 

In the end…

Carolina is playing well, doing it with an improved defense.  That will be tested tonight when Anton Khudobin steps between the pipes in place of Cam Ward.  At the other end, the Caps had a good win against the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday night, but it was hardly a win in the manner the coaches would have drawn up – a three-goal offensive burst in the last five minutes of the third period while being otherwise dominated by the home team to the tune of 40 shots and a 2-to-1 disadvantage in shot attempts.  This is an opportunity for the Caps to get back on track with their game plan in the first of a three-game home stand.  Sounds like an idea…

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 13: Capitals 3 - Blackhawks 2

The Washington Capitals thumbed their nose at Corsi.  They gave the middle finger to Fenwick.  Then they used a three-goal burst in a span of 4:52 late in the second period to catch and pass the Chicago Blackhawks to give them the winning margin in a 3-2 win at United Center on Friday night. 

It did not have the look of a winning evening for the Caps as the game began.  The teams went scoreless for the first 17 minutes of the first period, but the Blackhawks had the better of the play, outshooting the Caps to that point, 14-8.  On their 15^th shot of the period, Brandon Saad finished a 2-on-1 rush with Marian Hossa to give Chicago a 1-0 lead at the first intermission. 

Less than a minute into the second period, Duncan Keith celebrated his 700^th NHL game by slamming a rebound of a Brad Richards shot past goalie Braden Holtby on a power play to make it 2-0, Chicago.  At that point it looked as if the Caps were going to go quietly to their sixth straight loss.  Through 15 minutes of the period the Blackhawks enjoyed that two goal lead and a 24-14 edge in shots on goal.  Then, things took a turn.

As the clock ticked down to the five-minute mark of the second period, Marcus Johansson stole a pass in the Capitals’ zone and fed Andre Burakovsky at the Caps’ blue line.  With Chicago defenseman Brent Seabrook having pinched in on the play, Burakovsky took off with Troy Brouwer on what became a 2-1on-1 break with oply Keith back for the Blackhawks.  As Burakovsky and Brouwer broke into the Chicago zone, Keith laid out to deny Burakovsky a passing lane to Brouwer.  Burakovsky then called his own number and wristed a shot over goalie Corey Crawford’s glove and under the crossbar on the far side to halve the Blackhawks’ lead.

Four minutes later the game was tied.  The Caps worked the puck in deep, Marcus Johansson spinning it around the end boards from the left wing wall.  Brouwer was there to accept the puck, then send it in front to Burakovsky, whose shot was muffled in front.  The puck slid out to Matt Niskanen at the top of the right wing faceoff circle.  His shot attempt rolled off his stick but right onto that of Johansson who turned and fired the puck past Crawfoed’s right pad to tie the game with just 47 seconds left in the second period.

That might have been how the teams went to the locker room for the second intermission.  The Caps kept up the offensive zone pressure, though, and it was rewarded just before the horn at the end of the period.  It began with Joel Ward behind the Chicago net sliding the puck to Jason Chimera in the corner to Crawford’s right.  Chimera sent the puck out to Karl Alzner at the left point, and Alzner relayed it to Matt Niskanen at the right point.  Niskanen had nothing but open ice to wind and fire, and his shot was tipped by Ward over Crawford’s glove to give the Caps a 3-2 lead with just 4.4 seconds left in the period.

The Caps then put the game in Holtby’s hands, and the goalie, who had been struggling in the face of low shot volumes, stopped all 13 shots he faced in the third period to preserve the 3-2 win and end the Caps’ losing streak at five games.

Other stuff…

-- The 40 shots on goal for Chicago is a high for shots allowed this season by the Caps, only the second time that they allowed more than 30 shots in a game, and the first time they allowed a team more than ten shot in each period.

-- Andre Burakovsky broke a personal three-game streak without a point with his goal and assist.  His performance lifted him into second place in scoring among NHL rookies (3-7-10).

-- Marcus Johansson’s two points (1-1-2) made it four straight games with points (3-3-6).  His goal was his sixth, leaving him tied for second on the club with Alex Ovechkin.

-- Joel Ward took over the team lead in goals with his game-winner, his seventh overall and his second game-winning goal of the season, which also leads the team.

-- Matt Niskanen’s two assists broke a five-game streak without a point.

-- What does Barry Trotz think of Nicklas Backstrom’s game apart from his offense?  With the Caps nursing a one-goal lead, Backstrom played 5:38 of the last 11 minutes of the contest and 2:33 of the last 3:19.

-- Corsi was not kind to the Caps.  Chicago out-attempted the Caps, 66-32.  That’s right, 66-32.  It was 53-27 at 5-on-5. 

-- This was the tenth time in his career that Braden Holtby faced 40 or more shots in a game.  In those contests he is 6-4-0, 2.63, .936.

-- Brooks Laich returned to the lineup for this game and skated a modest 12:54 in ice time.  The odd part of that was a stretch in the second period in which on three consecutive shifts he skated six seconds, eight seconds, and seven seconds.  By the third period, though, he was skating a more normal load, finishing the last 20 minutes with 5:16 in ice time.

-- The Caps held the Blackhawks without a goal in the third period.  It was the first time the Caps shut out an opponent in the final period since they did so in a 3-1 win over Calgary back on October 25^th.  In the five games following that win, all losses, the Caps allowed a total of nine goals in the last period.  The Caps are 4-1-0 when holding a team scoreless in the third period, 1-4-3 when they do not.

In the end…

The Caps are Team Contrary when it comes to possession numbers in their first 13 games.  They were “playing” the right way in their five-game losing streak but getting no reward.  Against the Blackhawks the home team carried play for most of the game, but the Caps had that one burst at the end of the second period to carry the day.  In that respect it was Braden Holtby’s night to shine.  Having played inconsistently in recent starts, Holtby shook off goals on consecutive shots at the end of the first and the start of the second period and slammed the door on any further Chicago hijinks.  It might not have been the way the coaching staff drew it up, but it is a just reward for a team that was frustrated in recent games while winning the fancystat wars.  There is balance in the realm of hockey.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 13: Capitals at Blackhawks, November 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off a home stand that seemed more like road kill, the Washington Capitals take their act to the road in hopes of not being road kill at the hands of the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center on Friday night.

Washington is having a tough time of it.  Losers of five straight, at least they managed to get the fifth and latest of those games into overtime before falling to the Calgary Flames, 4-3.  What that fourth goal meant, though, is that the Caps have allowed four or more goals in five straight games for the first time since November 11-24, 2008.  

In the Chicago Blackhawks, the Caps will be facing a team that has struggled scoring goals in the early part of the season. In 13 games the Blackhawks have scored more than two goals only five times, and they have been shut out twice in their last five contests.  They are averaging only 2.46 goals per game, 21st in the league, after finishing second in scoring offense in each of the last two seasons.

It is hard to pinpoint a reason for the low offensive output to date.  The Blackhawks are reasonably balanced (nine players with two or more goals, 11 with five or more points); they just seem to have received not enough from up and down the lineup.  For example, Jonathan Toews leads the team in scoring (5-5-10), but he is only tied for 42nd in league scoring.  The same applies to Patrick Kane, whose nine points (4-5-9) is tied for second on the club but only tied for 56th in the league.

The Blackhawks came out of an extended offensive funk with a 5-0 win over the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, but before that they scored a total of 12 goals over a span of seven games, only once scoring more than two goals.  Jonathan Toews had three of those 12 goals, and Brent Seabrook had a pair during that slump.  Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, and Brad Richards each had three assists.  After that, the secondary scoring was almost non-existent, at least until the 5-0 win over Montreal when five different players recorded goals.

The scoring problems have put a heavier burden on Chicago’s goaltending, but it has been up to the task.  Corey Crawford was second in the league in goals against average going into Thursday night's games (1.53) and sixth in save percentage (.938).  He was tied for tenth in save percentage at even strength among qualifying goaltenders.  Only once in seven appearances has he allowed more than two goals.  Like Caps goaltenders, Crawford has benefitted from low shot volumes.  Since facing 34 shots in a 3-2 trick shot win in his first appearance of the season, Crawford has not faced more than 28 shots in any game, and he is facing an average of 24.7 shots per 60 minutes.   In four career appearances against the Caps he is 2-1-1, 3.77, .875.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers to date:

 

1. No team in the league has had more one-goal decisions than Chicago.  They are not doing well with them.  In ten one-goal decisions the Blackhawks are 4-5-1, tied for 19^th in winning percentage.  At the other end of the spectrum, Chicago is one of five teams yet to lose a decision by three or more goals (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Ottawa, and the Caps are the others).

2.  Chicago is 25^th in 5-on-5 goals scored per game (1.46).  Carolina, Anaheim, Winnipeg, Florida, and Buffalo are the others.

3.  Where Chicago has shined so far is on the penalty kill.  No team has allowed fewer power play goals so far this season (3). Over their last nine games the Blackhawks are 25-for-26 (96.2 percent) on the penalty kill.

4.  The long change of the second period does not seem to agree with Chicago, at least on offense.  While the Blackhawks have scored 13 goals in the first period (tied for fourth) and 14 goals in the third period (tied for eighth), they have only four goals in the second period of games, last in the league.

5.  Hits are a somewhat arbitrary metric, but there were the Blackhawks sitting 27^th in the league in hits going into Thursday's games.  They and the Red Wings are the only teams left yet to take a major penalty of any kind.

1.  The Caps are pretty conventional when it comes to record when scoring or trailing first.  They are 4-1-1 when scoring the first goal, 0-4-2 when scored upon first.  They, along with Carolina and Buffalo, are the only teams in the league without a win when allowing the first goal.

2. No team has spent less time skating with the man advantage than the Caps (54:19), almost five fewer minutes than the New York Rangers (58:59).

3.  Scoring third period goals is not the Caps’ thing, at least this early in the season.  Only four teams – Columbus, Buffalo, Florida, and Winnipeg – have scored fewer than the nine third period goals scored by the Caps.

4. The Caps are a middle-of-the-road team when it comes to taking faceoffs (49.6 percent; 16^th in the league).  What they don’t do is take many draws.  Only Minnesota, Florida, and Carolina have taken fewer faceoffs than the 723 taken by the Caps.

5.  Alex Ovechkin’s next assist will be his 400^th in the NHL.  Since he came into the league, only ten players have more:

• Joe Thornton
• Henrik Sedin
• Sidney Crosby
• Martin St. Louis
• Ryan Getzlaf
• Pavel Datsyuk
• Daniel Sedin
• Evgeni Malkin
• Brad Richards
• Henrik Zetterberg

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Marian Hossa

When Marian Hossa scored a goal late in the third period of Chicago’s 5-4 trick shot win over Ottawa on October 30th, it was his 1,000th point in the NHL.  It is the high point of a season in which he stumbled out of the gate.  Over his first 16 seasons in the league, Hossa averaged 0.91 points per game.  However, through 13 games this season he has just five points (0.38 per game) and has not recorded one since that goal against Ottawa, a pointless streak of three games.  Part of it is that he might be shooting in bad luck.  He has just two goals on 41 shots so far (4.9 percent), by far the lowest shooting percentage of his career if sustained over a full season (11.0 in 2007-2008 being his lowest).

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Caps fans might not have envisioned Evgeny Kuznetsov skating on the fourth line with the occasional power play assignment, but that is where he has been spending most of his time since the season began.  In spite of that, however, Kuznetsov was tied for eighth in scoring among rookies (1-5-6) going into Thursday night's games while skating 12:36 a game in ice time, 37^th among rookies.  When he was shut out on the score card against Calgary on Tuesday, it broke a three-game points streak that tied his longest of the season and longest of his just-begun career.  Kuznetsov will be making his second career appearance against Chicago.  He had an assist in a 4-0 Caps win over the Blackhawks last April 11^th.

In the end…

This preview of the 2015 Winter Classic features two teams that are struggling.  Chicago can’t score, and the Caps can‘t hold a lead.  This game, however, might turn on something else, strength on strength, the Caps’ second-ranked power play against the Blackhawks’ second-ranked penalty kill (before last night's games).  Washington has power play goals in 9 of their last 11 games (33.3 percent), so they will present a challenge for that Blackhawk penalty killing group.  The Caps have won four of their last six meeting against Chicago, so what’s one more?

Capitals 3 – Blackhawks 2

A ONE-point night -- Game 12: Flames 4 - Capitals 3 (OT)

Another lead, another loss. The Washington Capitals lost their fifth straight game last night, this time to the Calgary Flames, 4-3, in overtime. It also represented the fifth straight game in which the Caps could not hold a lead in dropping the decision. It spoiled a night on which Alex Ovechkin became the franchise’s all-time points leader, surpassing Peter Bondra when he assisted on Nicklas Backstrom’s game-tying goal in the first period.

That goal was a game-tying one because Calgary's Lance Bouma opened the scoring at the 9:09 mark when he put back a rebound of a Kris Russell shot. The Caps tied it just 1:09 later when Ovechkin took a pass from Tom Wilson at the left point. He wristed a shot from long range that Backstrom redirected through goalie Jonas Hiller’s pads for the score. For Ovechkin it was his 826th point, passing Peter Bondra for the top spot in franchise history.

Calgary took back the lead mid-way through the second period on Mark Giordano’s fourth goal of the season. The Caps struck back quickly once more, this time just 43 seconds later. It was an odd play. Troy Brouwer fed Marcus Johansson the puck in the neutral zone, and Johansson circled into the Flames’ zone. From the top of the right wing circle Johansson wrong-footed a snap shot that went wide to Hiller’s left. The puck caromed hard of the end boards and rebounded off Hiller into the net for the goal to tie the game for the second time.

Joel Ward gave the Caps the lead three minutes later on a power play. With Calgary skating down two men, Nicklas Backstrom waited patiently for an opening from Hiller’s left. He found it when defenseman Mark Giordano, defending the top of the crease, moved his skate just enough to create an opening for a pass. Backstrom threaded the puck through the opening to Ward on the other side, and Ward fired the puck into Hiller’s pads. Hiller’s left skate kicked the puck behind him and over the goal line to give Washington a 3-2 lead.

For the fifth game in a row, it was a lead they could not hold. Markus Granlund tied the game on the sort of goal a team in a skid like the Caps gives up. From behind the Capitals’ net, Granlund centered the puck in front. Marcus Johansson was there to direct the puck into the corner, but in doing so he shot the puck off the skate of Troy Brouwer and past goalie Braden Holtby into his own net with just 4:10 left in regulation.

In overtime, Sean Monahan ended it in the last minute when he carried the puck into the Caps’ zone, left the puck for Josh Jooris, then took a nice return pass from Jorris, finishing the play and the game by snapping the puck over Holtby’s right pad. It was another quiet exit for Caps fans as the Caps dropped the second half of their two-game home stand, 4-3.

Other stuff…

-- Right off the opening draw there was a change.  Mike Green and Brooks Orpik started as a defensive pair.  It did not go well.  Green was on ice for all four Calgary goals and was paired with Orpik for two of them.  Nate Schmidt was Green’s pair for a third, and Matt Niskanen was alongside Green on the overtime winner.

-- That left John Carlson and Schmidt as the next pair of defensemen to take the ice.  That one worked better, if only by the default that Green and Orpik (or Green and whoever else) worked so poorly.  Carlson recorded an assist on Johansson’s goal, making it four straight games in which he recorded a point.

-- Ovechkin had two assists in taking over the top spot in career points with the Caps.  Nevertheless, he still inspires in a different way…

-- Calgary leaned heavily on four defensemen.  Kris Russell, Mark Giordano, Dennis Wideman, and T.J. Brodie all topped 25 minutes in ice time.  Ladislav Smid had barely 13 minutes, and Deryk Engelland didn’t make it to 12 minutes.  He did have a fight, though (his 38th career bout, Liam O’Brien’s third), so there was that.

-- Jason Chimera skated a team low 12:22 in ice time.  That’s four straight games under 13 minutes for Chimera.  He has just one point in his last seven games (none last night) and he has gone seven games since scoring his only goal of the season. 

-- Tom Wilson got another point.  That makes points in consecutive games, the first time since he  accomplished the feat since last Janaury against New Jersey and Montreal.

-- Marcus Johansson recorded a goal on two shots last night.  That’s three straight games in which Johansson recorded multiple shots on goal, and it was his ninth multiple shot game of the season.  If that doesn’t sound impressive, compare his getting his ninth multiple shot game in Game 12 of the season to his getting it in Game 25 last season.

-- You hold a team to 11 shots, total, over the last 20 minutes of regulation, you really should win.  The third goal was a fluke, but that awkward looking backhand by Giordano… that’s the kind of goal that is nullifying all the good work the Caps are doing in holding shot attempts and shot totals down.

-- Speaking of which, that is ten games in 12 that the Caps out-shot their opponent, and the Caps are 3-4-3 in those games.  Only Minnesota has allowed fewer shots per game (22.8) than the Caps (25.2). 

-- That was the third game this season that the Caps lost when taking a lead into the third period.  No team has lost more games (San Jose and Colorado also have three losses).

In the end…

Barry Trotz said the other day that if you get to three (meaning goals scored), it should be enough to win in this league.  The Caps are just 3-2-2 when getting to three, and they got to three in each of their last three losses.  In football, quarterbacks take an out-sized share of credit for wins and blame for losses.  The same with goalies in hockey.  However, Braden Holtby is under .900 in save percentage in four of his past five games, despite facing fewer than 25 shots in four of them (23 last night).  He has yet to face 30 shots in a game in nine appearances, yet his overall save percentage is .891.  Of 37 goalies appearing in at least five games, Holtby’s even strength save percentage of .887 ranks 36th.  There is the odd fluke goal in there, but a lot of good work is going to waste because not enough pucks are being stopped.  With Chicago next up, the task in doing so is not going to get easier.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 12: Flames at Capitals, November 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their mini-two-game home stand on Tuesday night when the Calgary Flames come to town in the second and last game of the season series between the clubs.  The Caps are trying to right themselves after heading into a ditch since their 3-1 win in Calgary on October 25th.  In four games since then the Caps have not scored consistently enough (12 goals, but five of them coming in a 6-5 loss to Arizona on Sunday), have given up far too many goals (18 in those four games), have had a poor time of it killing penalties (12-for-17; 70.6 percent), and have not been able to make up for that shortcoming despite a pretty good power play (4-for-13; 30.8 percent).

On the other hand, the Flames come into this game with points in three contests since dropping their game in Calgary to the Caps (2-0-1).  After losing in a Gimmick to Montreal at home on October 28th, 2-1, the Flames knocked off Nashville, 4-3, then beat the Canadiens in a rematch, 6-2, at Bell Centre.

One of the keys for Calgary has been minimizing shorthanded situations faced.  After facing 32 such situations in their first ten games, the Flames have found themselves shorthanded only five times over their last three contests, only once in each of the last two games.  That they are 4-for-5 on the penalty kill over those games is something that has contributed to their good fortune of late.

Calgary is not a team that does it, at least so far this season, with forward-dominated scoring.  Three of the top four point-getters are defensemen, only Jiri Hudler (3-7-10) representing forwards in that top-four group.  Hudler is ranked 36^th among league forwards in points.  What is worse for the Flames, at least for this game, is that their leading goal-scorer among forwards is Mason Raymond (5).  He is tied for 21^st among NHL forwards in goals.  The unfortunate part for the Flames is that Raymond is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers through Sunday’s games:

1.  Calgary is giving up 0.75 fewer goals per game through 13 games (2.15; 9th in the league) than they did last season (2.90; 24th).  It certainly doesn’t hurt that the big change is in goal.  Last season Karri Ramo took the lion’s share of appearances and did a credible job behind a poor team (.911 save percentage on a team whose other three goalies had a combined save percentage of .895).  This season Ramo is continuing that level of work, if less frequently (.914 save percentage in five appearances).  Meanwhile, Jonas Hiller, signed to a two-year/$9.0 million contract as a free agent last July, has a .938 save percentage  in eight appearances and a miniscule 1.84 goals against average.

2.  Calgary has also amped up its 5-on-5 play.  Last year the Flames 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio was 0.80 28th in the league).  After 13 games this season it is 1.41 (6th).  Only three of 16 Flames players appearing in at least ten games so far is a “minus” player (Ladislave Smid, Brandon Bollig, and Lance Bouma).

3.  Calgary is not doing it with shot differential.  Their 27.1 shots per game ranks 28th in the league, while their 29.4 shots allowed per game ranks 15th.  Their shot differential of minus-2.3 shots per game ranks 21st in the league.

4.  As of Sunday’s games the league has four defensemen with ten or more points.  The Flames have two of them – T.J. Brodie (4-8-12) and Mark Giordano (3-8-11).  The Flames have five power play goals and 13 points from defensemen on the power play (by way of comparison, the numbers are two goals and seven points for Caps defensemen).

5. Calgary is doing it with mirrors.  Their possession numbers are awful – Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 43.33 (28^th in the league), Fen-Close for at 5-on-5 of 46.17 (26^th; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  In the last six games, over which the Caps are 1-5-0, the Caps goaltenders have a combined cumulative save percentage of .864).  It has been an equal opportunity effort.  Justin Peters has a .857 save percentage in two appearances, while Braden Holtby has a .868 save percentage in four appearances.  Holtby has had a disturbing tendency to drift as games go on.  He has a .887 first period save percentage, but included in that was an awful three goals on seven shots effort against San Jose.  Take that out, and he has a .938 first period save percentage.  After that it is .912 in the second period, .900 in the third.  More evidence that low shot volumes (24.9 per 60 minutes) are a problem for him?

2.  When Nicklas Backstrom recorded three assists in the 6-5 loss to Arizona on Sunday, it was the 27th time he recorded three or more assists in a game.  That is the most in the league since he arrived (Sidney Crosby: 26).

3.  Alex Ovechkin’s four-point effort against the Coyotes on Sunday was the 18th time he recorded four or more points in a game.  Only Crosby (25), Joe Thornton (20), and Evgeni Malkin (19) have done it more (Backstrom, by the way, is tied for seventh on that list with 14 instances).

4.  The Caps have outshot opponents nine times in 11 games so far.  No team in the Eastern Conference has outshot their opponent as many times (Minnesota and Chicago have done it ten time in the West).  The Caps also have the sixth worst winning percentage in the league when doing so (.333; 3-4-2).

5.  The Caps, despite that train wreck against Arizona, are still sixth in the league in Corsi-for percentage overall (53.20) and seventh in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (53.45).   Their Fen-Close for percentage is fourth (54.55; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Really?  And 4-5-2?  Didn’t we ask this question last game, too?

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Johnny Gaudreau

“Johnny Hockey” took a little while to get used to the NHL game, but he seems to be settling in just fine.  A fourth-round draft pick in 2011 out of Boston College, Gaudreau went without a point in his first five games, then was a healthy scratch against the Columbus Blue Jackets.  In seven games since that slow start, he is 2-6-8 with three multi-point games.  Both of his goals were game-winners, one against Winnipeg in a 4-1 win on October 19th, and one against Nashville in a 4-3 win on Hallowe’en.  Gaudreau, who is listed (perhaps generously) at 5’9”, 150 pounds, has seen his ice time jump from the low double digits in his first six games to 15 or more minutes in each of his last six contests.  As of Sunday he was still waiting on being told by the club to find a permanent residence instead of the hotel in which he is living in Calgary. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=737022 He’s making it hard to the team to do anything but tell him to check the apartment listings.  He was held without a point in 17 minutes of ice time in the Caps’ 3-1 win in Calgary on October 25th.

Washington: Matt Niskanen

Last Season in Pittsburgh, defenseman Matt Niskanen recorded 162 shots in 81 games (2.0 per game) and finished the season with a career high 10 goals and 46 points.  It earned him a big pay check in free agency, courtesy of the Washington Capitals.  So far, Niskanen has 11 shots in 11 games (1.0) and is looking for his first goal for the Caps.  His role is not as diverse as that which he played in Pittsburgh, especially when Kris Letang was sidelined with a stroke.  However, his offensive play has gone into a spin lately – no shots on goal in three of his last four games, no points, and minus-5.  He has been on ice for 11 even strength goals, tied for most on the team with partner Karl Alzner.  Maybe we’re still in the eHarmony phase of the relationship, but the Caps are going to have to get better play from Niskanen in all three zones to shake the funk in which they find themselves.  He is 3-4-7, plus-3, in 19 career games against Calgary.

In the end…

The Caps’ win at Calgary ten days ago is their only win in their last six contests.  It was not an especially dominating one as the Caps won, 3-1, although they did dominate the shot meter, 30-21, and held the Flames without an even strength goal.  Since that game the Flames have dug themselves out of a hole, going 2-0-1 to lift themselves into a tie for second in standings points in the Pacific Division with Vancouver and San Jose.

At the moment, there are teams going in different directions.  Calgary is winning with offense (3.67 goals per game in their last three games since losing to the Caps) and defense (2.00 goals per game), while the Caps try to find both (outscored 18-12 in their last four games, all losses, since beating Calgary).  So of course, we think the curse will be reversed.

Capitals 4 – Flames 2

A NO-point night -- Game 11: Coyotes 6 - Capitals 5

For 16 minutes last night, the Washington Capitals looked like a team to be reckoned with.  For the last 44 minutes, they looked like a wreck as the Arizona Coyotes pasted the Caps for five straight goals after the Caps took a 3-1 lead in those first 16 minutes.  The Caps scored a couple of window dressing goals late to make the 6-5 final more respectable, if not easier to swallow.

For a detailed look at the game, take a look at the quick-recap and more lengthy recap we penned over at Japers’ Rink.

Other stuff…

-- Arizona came into this game not having won a game on the road and suffering the ignominy of being shut out by the Carolina Hurricanes for the Hurricanes first win of the season the previous night.  Well, now the Coyotes have one road win.

-- The Caps had been outscored, 8-0, in the third period over their last four games before they scored those two goals in the last 1:53 of the game.

-- Alex Ovechkin, with four points on the evening, tied Peter Bondra for the franchise record in points (825).  Bondra set his record with a goal in a 4-0 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on February 15, 2004, in what was Bondra’s penultimate game with the Caps.  Oddly enough, Bondra’s last game with the Caps was against the Ottawa Senators, to which he would be traded the following day.

-- Caps fans can take small solace (yeah, very small) in Martin Erat going minus-2, pointless, and with a penalty for his evening. 

-- Ovechkin gets the coupon for the all-you-can-eat buffet… a goal, three assists, four points, seven shots on goal, 14 shot attempts, five hits, a takeaway.  Oh, yeah, two minor penalties, one of which led to the goal Shane Doan goal that tied the game and sucked what was left of the momentum out of the Caps’ end of the ice.  Sure, it was an iffy penalty, but like the sign says, “players are responsible for their sticks.”

-- In case you haven’t noticed, for all the needles at Brooks Orpik since the season started, the other big-money free agent defenseman doesn’t yet have a goal (he is averaging precisely half the shots on goal he averaged per game last season) and doesn’t have a point in his last four games.

-- Speaking of Matt Niskanen, he was one of only three Caps without a shot on goal (Karl Alzner and Andre Burakovsky were the others).

-- It was the type as well as the frequency of penalties that was annoying (ok, the refs were annoying, too)… holding, interference, hooking, hi-sticking, hi-sticking.  Stick and impedance fouls strike us as signs of laziness. 

-- Mike Green had his first “minus” game of the season.  He was a minus-1 after going a cumulative plus-8 in his first nine games, five of them in plus terrirtory.

-- Tom Wilson had a goal, an assist, and two roughing minors…sort of a “Gordie Howe Hat-Trick Lite.”  Be strong and get well, Mr. Hockey.

In the end...

It was a grisly effort by the Caps against a team that, frankly, stinks.  Four straight losses, five in six games, post-game closed-door players meeting, somber barely-able-to-contain-his-anger-coach at the press conference, players rolling out all the “contrite” and “thoughtful” quotes after the game.  Hey Caps fans, look familiar?

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 4

The Washington Capitals took an oh-fer in Week 4.  Losers of all three games for the week, the Caps are now in 12^th place in the Eastern Conference, 14^th in regulation and overtime wins.  It left the Caps right where they were after ten games last season – 10 points after 10 games.

Record: 0-3-0

This was the first three-loss week for the Caps since Week 17 last season when they went 1-3-0.  It is their first winless week in one with more than two games since Week 16 last season.  It was the first time the Caps lost three straight games in regulation time since they lost five straight in Games 47-51 last season.  After a 3-0-2 start in their first five games, after which they found themselves in second place in the Metropolitan Division and third in the Eastern Conference, they have slipped three spots in the division and nine places in the conference.

Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.90/game; rank: 11^th)

Not a good week for the offense.  Not only did the Caps shoot poorly (seven goals on 87 shots; 8.0 percent), they did not get much from the players who have to give them much.  Alex Ovechkin had one assist, breaking a personal worst five game streak without a point.  He was 0-for-15 shooting.  Nicklas Backstrom had one assist. Mike Green had two assists, but he did not have a goal.  Ditto John Carlson.  If anything, the Caps got their secondary scoring.  Marcus Johansson had two goals and an assist to lead the Caps in scoring for the week.  Troy Brouwer had a pair of goals. Evgeny Kuznetsov got his first of the year.  Eric Fehr had a pretty goal against Tampa Bay following up his own shot.  Even Liam O’Brien had his first NHL goal.

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 2.50/game; rank: T-13^th)

The Caps finally allowed a team to reach the 30-shot mark in a game, giving up 34 shots to the Vancouver Canucks in the Caps’ 4-2 loss last Sunday.  They followed that up by getting right back with the program, allowing a total of 50 shots in the last two games of the week in losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay.  The 5-on-5 play was, to be charitable, interesting.  Oddly enough, the Caps won the possession wars for the week with a 53.02 Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5, a 53.67 percent Fenwick-for (winning handily in both against Detroit and Tampa Bay, losing closely against Vancouver).  Unfortunately, they out-performed the shots-for (50.37 percent) and goals for (35.7 percent).  If there is an emerging bright spot here, it is the play of the Mike Green-Nate Schmidt pair on defense.  As a pair, they have been on ice for just one of the last 17 goals scored against the Caps, that coming against Detroit last Wednesday (Green was on for the empty netter scored by Vancouver in the 4-2 loss to the Canucks last Sunday).

Goaltending: 3.74 GAA / .867 SV (season: 2.36 GAA / .904 SV / 1 SO)

Justin Peters allowed three goals on 33 shots in almost 59 minutes against the Vancouver Canucks in the 4-2 loss last Sunday.  That was the high point of the week as far as goaltending was concerned.  Braden Holtby was in net for the last two games of the week, and it did not go well. Holtby allowed eight goals on 50 shots (.840 save percentage) in taking the loss in both games.  What was worse was his even strength save percentage-- .811.  He faced only 15 even strength shots against Detroit (12 saves) and 22 even strength shots against Tampa Bay (18 saves).  Even if not all the goals are attributable to poor play on his part (especially against Tampa Bay), Holtby, who in the past thrived on high workload volumes, is going to have to find a way to find and maintain his focus as the Caps transition themselves into a team that denies shot attempts.

Power Play: 2-10/20.0 percent (season: 25.7 percent; rank: 3^rd)

There was a glass half-full/half-empty aspect to the power play in Week 4.  On the plus side, the Caps had a fairly efficient week – two goals on 17 shots (11.8 percent shooting) in 13:08 of power play ice time. On the other hand, getting an 0-for-6 in shooting (and only one shot on goal in each of the last two games of the week) was probably not in the plan for Alex Ovechkin.  Last year’s power play goal-scoring leader has not had a power play goal since Game 3 against San Jose on October 14^th.  He has 16 power play shots on goal for the season, not much different on a per game basis than last season (1.60 per game compared to 1.69 last season); it is just his shooting is off (6.25 percent compared to 9.84 percent last season).

Penalty Killing: 3-11/72.7 percent (season: 80.6 percent; rank: 17^th)

When the Caps denied the Tampa Bay Lightning a goal on two power play opportunities on Saturday, it broke a five game streak in which the Caps allowed at least one power play goal.  It was not an especially efficient week.  The Caps allowed 15 shots on goal in 12:39 of power play ice time.  It was not all that effective, either.  Washington allowed three goals on nine shots in the first two games of the week before shackling the Lightning in the last game of the week.  This was a place where Holtby stood out in a good way in goal.  He stopped 10 of 11 power play shots, lifting him into 13^th place in shorthanded save percentage among 41 goalies playing in at least four games.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 5-9 / minus-4 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio:1.11; rank: T-13^th)

It was not a good week for the Caps in this regard.  They were lit up in shots on goal by Vancouver to start the week (outshot at even strength, 30-19), but they came on at the end of the week (49-37 to the good).  Opponents just feasted on the Caps in terms of efficiency, though, shooting to a 13.4 percent mark at even strength for the week, while the Caps were only at 7.4 percent.  How odd was it?  Marcus Johansson scored as many even strength goals in Week 4 as he did in all of last season (2).

Faceoffs:  77-for-155 / 49.6 percent (season: 49.3 percent; rank: 19^th)

The Caps were one draw under 50 percent for the week, but they did manage a good week in the defensive end (57.5 percent).  What set the week apart was the incidences more than the percentages by zone.  The Caps took 57 draws in the offensive zone (47.4 percent), only 40 percent (57.5 percent).  It was the defensive zone draw that got away that proved critical in the Caps’ loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday.  Steven Stamkos won a draw cleanly from Nicklas Backstrom, and Jason Garrison coverted into the game-winning goal in the Caps’ 4-3 loss to the Lightning.  That draw put Backstrom one under for the week in the defensive end, while he was above 50 percent in other two zones in taking 53 draws (winning 28), more than twice as many as any other Capital.  The second highest number of draws (24) was taken by Andre Burakovsky, who had a good week (58.3 percent).

Goals by Period:

No secret what the problem was here.  After holding opponents even over the first two periods, the Caps had their lunch eaten in front of them to the tune of a 5-0 margin.  They allowed the game winning goals in the losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay in the third period, and with having allowed a third period empty net goal against Vancouver, the Caps allowed third period goals in each of the three games for the week.

In the end…

Playing well in terms of possession only goes so far.  When the team gets no standings points for the week when winning the possession wars (a theme spilling over from Week 3), it is frustrating.  The best that can be said is that if the Caps continue to “play” as they have, the wins will come.  They have to get better than a .750 save percentage from Braden Holtby in the third period of games, though.  And, they have to get their primary scoring to rise to the level of their secondary scoring.  You know, the usual things a team needs in its performance numbers to win.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Marcus Johansson (2-1-3, minus-3, four shots on goal, Corsi minus-3)
• Second Star: Andre Burakovsky (0-2-2, minus-1, 58.3 percent on draws)
• Third Star: Justin Peters (0-1-0, 30 saves on 33 shots, 28-for-30 at even strength)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 11: Coyotes at Capitals, November 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals get right back on the horse, so to speak, after their 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night when they return to Verizon Center to host the Arizona Coyotes on Sunday night.

The Capitals are reeling after losing their third straight game last night, their fourth loss in their last five contests.  The skid wipes out their 3-0-2 start, leaving them with a .500 record entering this contest (4-4-2).  The Caps have struggled scoring goals of late, and this has been a problem in two unexpected places.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have one goal between them over their last six games.  Then there is the defense.  Mike Green has three goals and is among the league leaders in scoring among defensemen.  The rest of the defense has a total of one goal (John Carlson).

If the Caps are to snap out of their scoring funk, the Coyotes would be the team against which they could do it.  Now representing the entire state of Arizona instead of just the city of Phoenix, the Coyotes have struggled at both ends of the ice.  They have not scored more than three goals in a game in their last seven contests, since beating Edmonton, 7-4, in Game 3 of the season back on October 15^th.  Their scoring defense has been wildly inconsistent, allowing two or fewer goals four times but allowing six of more goals three times in ten games.

Arizona is a team that has struggled to put together any consistent offense.  The exception is Mikkel Boedker, who has five of the Coyotes’ 22 total goals.  But even here, there are problems.  Boedker recorded goals in each of his first three games this season, topping off his hot start with a hat trick in the 7-4 win over Edmonton on October 15^th.  He does not have a point since then.  He has only four shots on goal in his last three contests.  In five career games against Washington, Boedker is 1-0-1, minus-1.

On defense, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is in something of a slump, at least insofar as it applies to defensemen.  He has been on ice for 21 of the 36 goals allowed by the Coyotes so far this season.  Only Columbus’ Jack Johnson has been on ice for more goals among defensemen (24 in 11 games).  His minus-11 is worst among 661 skaters in the league.  In only three games this season has OEL not been on ice for a goal scored against the Coyotes.  Twice he has been on ice for at least four goals against, including being torched for six goals against in the Coyotes’ 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay last Tuesday.

Then there is the goaltending.  Arizona isn’t getting it, at least enough to make the Coyotes competitive.  Both Mike Smith (.873) and Devan Dubnyk (.889) are under .900 for a save percentage.  Smith has been nothing short of ghastly at even strength.  In eight games his even strength save percentage is .877.  That ranks 40^th of 41 goaltenders having appeared in four or more games.  Smith took the loss in the Coyotes’ 3-0 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night (the Hurricanes’ first win of the season), so it would seem likely that the Caps will see Dubnyk in goal.  He has one career appearance against the Caps, a loss in which he allowed four goals on 22 shots in a 4-1 decision on October 24, 2013 when he was tending goal for the Edmonton Oilers.

Here is how the numbers compare for the two clubs through last night’s games:

1.  Arizona has scored only 12 5-on-5 goals so far this season, 28^th in the league.  They have gone six straight periods without an even strength goal.

2.  The Coyotes started the season very well on the penalty kill, going a perfect 10-for-10 in their first three games.  However, starting with an 0-for-4 performance on the penalty kill in their 6-1 loss to St. Louis on October 18^th, Arizona is 15-for-22 (68.2 percent).  If there is a silver lining, it is that the Coyotes have faced the third fewest number of shorthanded situations this season (32).

3.  If Arizona is going to win, it would seem likely that power play scoring will be involved.  The Coyotes are 5-for-16 with the man advantage in their three wins (31.3 percent) with at least one power play goal in each win, 4-for-21 otherwise (19.0 percent).  

4.  We made a point that Oliver Ekman-Larsson was having his struggles with plus-minus.  Well, there is also Connor Murphy.  He is only 21 and in his first full season with the club, but the 2011 20^th overall draft pick is minus-8 in roughly half the ice time OEL has had (13:38 a game versus 25:32 for Ekman-Larsson).

5.  Like the Caps, the Coyotes are playing better than their record.  Not a lot, but some.  Arizona ranks 19^th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.47 percent) and 15^th in Fenwick-for percentage (50.45 percent).  

1.  Last season the Caps were kings of the long change, finishing fourth in goals scored in the second period of games.  They are picking up where they left off, tied for fifth in second period scores so far.

2.  The Caps are one of eight teams that have not yet allowed ten goals (cumulative) in any period – eight in the first, nine in the second, and eight in the third periods of games.

3.  The Caps are one of six teams that have yet to sustain a loss by three or more goals.  They have won two games by those margins.

4.  The Caps had better score first.  They are one of only three teams that are winless when allowing the first goal (0-3-1).  Carolina and Buffalo are the others.

5.  The Caps have been over 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in seven of the ten games they have played thus far.  Five times they have been over 55 percent and twice over 60 percent.  They also happen to be 2-1-0 in the three games they were below 50 percent and had a cumulative 9-4 margin in goals at 5-on-5.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Arizona: Martin Erat

You remember Marty, right?  He of the two goals in 66 regular season and playoff games with the Caps.  He has five in 26 games with the Coyotes since being traded west last March.  He is second on the club in goals (3), but after a 2-2-4 start in his first four games, he is 1-0-1 in his last five.  He is one of five Coyotes forwards who have been on ice for at least ten goals against, in his case all of them at even strength, most among Coyote forwards.  In 11 career games against the Caps he is 1-7-8, even.

Washington: John Carlson

After setting a career high with 10 goals last season and taking over some of the duties held by Mike Green, John Carlson seemed poised to take the next step up this season.  He has one goal in his first ten games.  He has not lacked for shooting, four times recording at least four shots in a game (he leads Caps defensemen with 26 shots on goal).  His shooting percentage (3.8) is about a third lower than his career shooting average going into this season (5.3).  It suggests that a correction might be in order, especially since his is one of the lower lights in this statistic on a club that ranks sixth overall in shooting percentage (9.76).  Carlson is 2-1-3, plus-3 in four career games against the Coyotes.

In the end…

OK, enough of the playing well and losing nonsense.  The Coyotes are a team the Caps should beat soundly.  They stink at 5-on-5, they are struggling on the penalty kill of late, they can’t seem to score against air.  These are things that should play right into the Caps’ hands, especially since the Coyotes are coming into DC late after a loss in Carolina on Saturday night.  The Caps have fallen victim to the scoring in bunches problem lately – three goals in 12:28 in the loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday, three goals in 15 minutes of the third period against Detroit on Wednesday, three goals in 1:47 against Vancouver last Sunday.  Avoid that, and this one should not be close.

Capitals 5 – Coyotes 2

A NO-point night -- Game 10: Lightning 4 - Capitals 3

The Washington Capitals out-shot the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night, 38-28 (32-22 at 5-on-5).  They out-attempted them, 57-46 (46-39 at 5-on-5).  They out-Fenwicked them, 48-38 (40-30 at 5-on-5). 

They lost, 4-3.

This whole winning the possession wars and losing the games can get old really quick.  For the eighth time in ten games the Caps outshot their opponent, and they are just 3-3-2 in those games as the Caps fell to 4-4-2 for the season.

The Caps fell behind the eight-ball early in this one as Ryan Callahan redirected a Brian Boyle shot to give Tampa Bay the game’s first goal at the 6:06 mark.  Marcus Johansson tied it just before the 13-minute mark of the period on a play that started when Alex Ovechkin chipped a loose puck past defenseman Jason Garrison at the Capitals’ blue line.  Ovechkin raced past Garrison, picked up the puck, and sped in on goalie Ben Bishop.  Eric Brewer stuck his stick out and tripped Ovechkin to the ice from behind, but did not do enough to prevent Ovechkin from getting a shot on goal as he was sliding on the ice.  Bishop made the save, but the puck came out to Bishop’s right and onto the stick of Johansson following the play.  Johansson snapped the puck in before Bishop could recover and before the net came off its pegs as Garrison and Ovechkin slid into it.

The Caps took their only lead of the night early in the second on a one-man effort by Eric Fehr.  The play started when Jason Chimera skated the puck over the Lightning blue line along the right wing wall, then sent the puck deep around the boards.  The puck came out the other side where Fehr stopped it along the left wing boards.  He backhanded it down the wall to Chimera, who fed the puck back to Fehr as he cut to the net.  Fehr’s first shot went wide to Bishop’s right, but the puck caromed off the end wall and back out in front to Fehr on the other side of Bishop.  From a severe angle, made more so by Fehr being a right-handed shot, Fehr snapped the puck behind Bishop, off the far post, and in to make it 2-1.

The Caps could not hold the lead, though, as the Lightning put together a pair of goals less than three minutes apart to take a 3-2 lead mid-way through the period.  The Caps tied it back up in the last minute on a power play.  The Caps tried to work the puck to Troy Brouwer in the middle, Nicklas Backstrom threading a pass from the right wing wall.  That attempt was foiled, but the Lightning managed only to clear the puck to the blue line where Mike Green kept it in.  Green slid the puck down to Backstrom, who relayed it to Marcus Johansson at the goal line extended to Ben Bishop’s left.  Johansson saucered a pass to Brouwer in the slot, and he made good on this attempt, firing the puck under Bishop’s blocker to tie the game at three apiece with 59 seconds left in the second period.

Tampa Bay broke the tie one last time on their first shot of the third period, a goal by Jason Garrison off a clean faceoff win by Steven Stamkos 2:27 into the period.  The red lights were dark after that as Bishop turned away all 12 shots he faced from the Caps to secure the 4-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- The long national nightmare is over.  Alex Ovechkin scored a point, assisting on Marcus Johansson’s goal.  It was not the sort of assist that makes highlight films, a pass onto a teammate’s tape, but rather Ovechkin bulling his way through a trip, falling to the ice, getting off a shot while sliding on the ice, and watching his teammate pound the rebound into the back of the net just before he found himself there as well.

-- Eric Fehr sat out last Wednesday against Detroit, and it had an effect, at least for one game.  Six shots on goal, two other attempts, a goal, a hit, and a blocked shot.  The six shots on goal were the most he had in a game in almost four years, putting seven on net in a 3-2 Caps win over the Ottawa Senators on December 19, 2010.  You might remember that game as the one that broke an eight-game losing streak by the Caps so lovingly captured on video by the HBO folks in their series on the run-up to the 2011 Winter Classic.

-- The Caps flirted with disaster on one play and had it come out good enough.  Washington was caught by the Lightning on a 2-on-1 break with only Mike Green back.  Green, whose technique on defending such situations is, shall we say, unique at times, went to his knees, slid backward on his stomach, turned over, and tried to sweep the puck off Tyler Johnson’s stick.  He missed, which left an open passing lane to the other side of the slot to Nikita Kucherov.  The pass came and… what’s that?  Alex Ovechkin… backchecking?  His technique seemed to be taken from the Mike Green Manual, starting with a dive from the top of the faceoff circle.  His momentum carried him toward the goal line, and with his stick outstretched as far as possible, he deflected the pass out of harm’s way and to the end wall.

-- Not that the play was over.  The puck ended up on the stick of Ondrej Palat in front of Holtby.  Palat had two whacks at the puck, Holtby blocking the first with his left pad, then grabbing the puck out of the air on Palat’s second attempt. 

-- Speaking of Holtby, he seems to be having issues with the new-look, low shots-allowed Caps.  In seven appearances in which he played all 60 minutes (or more), he has yet to face 30 shots.  In fact, he is facing just 24.9 shots per 60 minutes.  Unfortunately, his save percentage is only .899 after this game, and it is .868 in his last four games over which he faced only 91 shots (23.3 per 60 minutes).

-- Mike Green and Nate Schmidt, stoppers.  Neither were on ice for a goal against the Lightning.  As a pair, they have been on ice for just one of the last 17 goals scored against the Caps, that coming against Detroit last Wednesday (Green was on for the empty netter scored by Vancouver in the 4-2 loss to the Canucks last Sunday).

-- Karl Alzner took it in the teeth as far as his underlying numbers are concerned.  He was a minus-8 Corsi at 5-on-5.  And before we get too caught up in Burra-fever, Andre Burakovsky was a team-worst minus-5 on the Fenwick meter.

-- Troy Brouwer gets the coupon for the all-you-can-eat buffet.  A goal, four shots, a shot blocked, a missed shot, three hits, two takeaways, and he won two of three faceoffs in 17:25 of ice time.

-- The Caps ended their streak of games in which they allowed power play goals at five games.  They faced only two shorthanded situations, which helped.  Odd stat – the Caps are 2-2-1 when facing three or fewer shorthanded situations, 2-2-1 when facing four or more.

-- At the other end, the Caps scored a power play goal in their second straight game and in their seventh game out of ten played so far.  They are 3-3-1 in games win which they scored a power play goal.

-- The Caps held Steven Stankos without a goal, the sixth straight game against the Caps he has failed to light the lamp.  The last goal he scored against the Caps was February 18, 2012 in a 2-1 Lightning win.

In the end…

All of a sudden the Caps can’t score.  Washington has gone six straight games without scoring more than three goals, since beating New Jersey, 6-2, in Game 4 back on October 16^th.  Since then they are 2-4-0 with a total of 13 goals scored, four of those on the power play.  It probably has not escaped anyone’s notice that the six-game streak coincides with Alex Ovechkin’s streak without a goal.  He is doing a lot of the little things right, but he isn’t being rewarded for it.  The same might be said of a number of Capitals.  Jason Chimera is without a goal in his last five games.  Andre Burakovsky is six games without a goal.  Nicklas Backstrrom has one goal in his last six contests.  The Caps have only one goal from a defenseman not named “Mike Green” (John Carlson has that one). 

One would like to say that this will pass, and the guys will get back into a groove.  Well, it would be nice if it happened sooner rather than later.  Playing the right way and having little to show for it has the look of a game in which the team applies early pressure but doesn’t score.  Often that comes back to haunt that team late.  Let’s hope we’re not invoking that analogy come March or April.