The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 29: Capitals at Penguins, December 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their three-game road trip on Monday night with their second meeting of the season against the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Caps, who lost the first meeting of the clubs by a 3-1 margin at Verizon Center on October 28^th, visit Consol Energy Arena in the Steel City for the first time this season.

The Capitals come into this contest with the best ten-game record in the league at 8-1-1 over their last ten contests.  And to the point of this contest, the Caps will visit Pittsburgh tied with the Montreal Canadiens for the second most standings points earned on the road so far this season (19 points).

On the other side of the contest, the Penguins will debut Mike Sullivan as their new head coach.  Mike Johnston was relieved of his head coaching duties on Saturday along with assistant Gary Agnew.   Sullivan has 170 games of regular season coaching experience at the NHL level with the Boston Bruins (70-56-23 with 15 ties) and the Vancouver Canucks (2-4-0).  He was 18-5-0 with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL before his promotion.

Sullivan inherits a challenge and an enigma.  The Penguins came into this season with the highest of expectations following a summer in which they obtained Phil Kessel from the Toronto Maple Leafs in one of the more complicated deals in recent NHL history.  The thinking was that Kessel, as natural a goal scorer as there is in the NHL (not named “Ovechkin” or “Stamkos”), paired with Sidney Crosby, the premier playmaker of his generation, would create an offensive juggernaut that nothing outside of the 101^st Airborne Division of the U.S. Army would be able to neutralize.

It has not happened.  Crosby, Kessel, and Evgeni Malkin, who among them averaged 0.43 goals per game over the course of their careers before this season, averaged ust 0.33 goals per game among them through 28 games before the firing of Johnston.  Crosby had been especially mysterious in his performance.  In ten seasons before this one he never averaged less than 1.09 points per game (last season, which was still good enough to lead the league).  Through 28 games this season he has just 19 points in 28 games (0.68 points per game), his point total tied for 79^th in the league (through Saturday’s games).  It is not a bad group with which he finds himself tied, a group that includes Corey Perry, Filip Forsberg, and Thomas Vanek, among others, but it is not a neighborhood with which he is too familiar over the course of his career.  Crosby is 18-33-51, plus-2, in 34 career games against Washington.

Kessel simply has not been the difference maker he was expected to be when he was obtained last summer.  His nine goals have come in eight games, and the Penguins have a record of 5-3-0 in those contests.  Of note with regard to this contest, Kessel is 2-6-8, minus-1, in 14 home games this season and his long goal in a win came back on October 20^th against the Florida Panthers.  He has only two points (both goals, both coming in a 5-1 win over the San Jose Sharks on December 1^st) in his last seven games.  Kessel is 7-14-21, minus-2, in 31 career games against the Capitals.

Malkin is the only one of the trio within a time zone of his expected level of play to date.  He is on a pace to finish the season with 38 goals, which if achieved would be his third-highest goal total in ten seasons.  He is also on a pace to finish with 76 points , which would be his highest point total since winning the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top scorer with 109 points in 2011-2012.  With Malkin, the issue is his ability to stay in the lineup.  He has not yet missed a game this season, but he has not played an 82-game season since 2008-2009, and he missed 52 games over the last three seasons entering this one.  He can score points in bunches – he had a stretch of seven games  at the end of November and starting December in which he had four multi-point games and went 8-5-13 – but he can go absent for stretches, too.  He has one point and is a minus-5 over his last four games.  Malkin is 9-34-43, plus-2, in 30 career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Kris Letang and Olli Maatta are the two defensemen expected to carry the mail in the offensive end for the Penguins.  They are one-two, respectively, in points from the blue line this season.  They have also missed nine games between them this season.  Over the last season-plus Maatta has missed 68 of 110 games.  Letang has missed 139 of 319 games over the last four-plus seasons.  Maatta is expected to play in this contest, while Letang is expected to miss up to two weeks with an upper-body injury.

2.  Special teams success could be an important factor in this game for the Caps. Pittsburgh is 9-2-2 in games in which they recorded one or more power play goals, 6-8-1 in games in which they were shut out with the man advantage.  On the other side, the Penguins are 10-3-2 in games in which their penalty killers were perfect, 5-7-1 when they were not.   The Penguins have not won a game in regulation this season when they were blanked on the power play and gave up at least one to the opposition (1-6-0, the win coming in a Gimmick).

3.  Total shots allowed do not seem to be much of a factor in Penguin wins and losses.  When allowing 30 or more shots they are 8-5-3, and they are 7-5-0 when allowing fewer than 30 shots.   Shots taken is another matter.  Pittsburgh is 9-4-2 when recording 30 or more shots, 6-6-1 when they do not.

4.  The Penguins have not won consecutive games in almost a month (November 17^th against Minnesota and November 19^th against Colorado).  Since then they are 3-3-3.  Over those nine games, Malkin (6-3-0) and Crosby (3-6-9) lead the team in points, so they might be emerging from their slumber.  The surprise there is that it is Chris Kunitz who leads the club in assists over those nine games (seven).

5.  For their considerable offensive talent, Pittsburgh has struggled with possession this season.  They rank 22^nd in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (48.4).  They are not much better in other variations of the metric – 20^th in score-adjusted Corsi (48.3) and 19^th in close score situations (48.3; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Five of the last seven  Capitals wins in this series have come via shutout:

• February 6, 2011: 3-0, Michal Neuvirth (22 saves at Washington)
• February 21, 2011: 1-0, Michal Neuvirth (39 saves at Pittsburgh)
• January 11, 2012: 1-0, Tomas Vokoun (30 saves at Washington)
• December 27, 2014: 3-0, Braden Holtby (31 saves at Pittsburgh)
• January 28, 2015: 4-0, Braden Holtby (27 saves at Washington)

2.  Washington leads the league in winning percentage when scoring first in games (.933/14-1-0).  They are fourth in winning percentage when opponents score first (.462/6-5-2).

3.  Only two teams have allowed fewer power play goals on the road than the Capitals (7).  Pittsburgh and the Anaheim Ducks have allowed six power play goals apiece on the road.

4.  The multi-goal game watch continues for Alex Ovechkin.  He has one goal in 14 games this season, over which the Caps have an 11-3-0 record.  What might be more surprising is the 9-3-2 record the Caps have in games in which he does not score a goal (including a loss in the only game he missed this season).

5.  The Caps might have the best ten-game record in the league at the moment (8-1-1), but they are not doing it the “right” way.  Their possession numbers continue to lag – 47.0 percent Corsi-for overall, 48.9 in score-adjusted Corsi-for, and 46.9 in close score situations (war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh:  Marc-Andre Fleury

Marc-Andre Fleury has had two different seasons in goal for the Penguins thus far.  In the first, covering his first 11 appearances, he went 7-4-0, 1.74, .939, with two shutouts.  Then, beginning with a four-goals-allowed performance against Calgary on November 7^th, he has gone 6-5-2, 2.61, .919 over his last 13 appearances.  In those first 11 appearances he allowed more than two goals just three times.  He has done so seven times in his last 13 appearances.  He does, however, seem to be coming out of that funk.  Fleury allowed two goals in each of his last three appearances (with just a 1-1-1 record), stopping 85 of 91 shots (.934 save percentage).  Fleury is 18-10-2, 2.45, .917, with three shutouts in 31 career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Nate Schmidt

Nate Schmidt logged his first fight in the NHL in the Caps’ 2-1 win over Tampa Bay on Saturday.   More important, he has been logging heavy minutes since Brooks Orpik went down to an injury November 10^th.  In 14 games since then, Schmidt averaged a shade over 20 minutes a game.  Compare that to last season when Schmidt averaged 13:53 over 39 games.  This game could be a special challenge for Schmidt give the depth of skill the Penguins have at forward.   In those 14 games since Orpik went down, Schmidt has maintained a ability to log good possession numbers (50.6 percent Corsi-for overall, 51.9 percent in score-adjusted Corsi-for).  He has grown into his expanded responsibilities.  He has appeared only once against the Penguins without recording a point.

In the end…

This game provides a trifecta of challenges for the Caps.  First, Washington is likely to get the Penguins’ undivided attention in a way perhaps the Arizona Coyotes, for example, might not.  The effort should be there for the home team.   Then there is the fact that this is the last road game of the three-game road trip, coming as it does after the dads and mentors have gone their separate ways.  The Caps will have to maintain their focus.  Then there is the wild-card of the new coach taking over in his first game with the new club.  That might inspire his players to impress. 

Whatever the challenges, though, the Caps have played with what appears as a less emotional, more clinical consistency of play.  They have not allowed distractions to be distractions.  There is little reason to think that will change in this game.

Capitals 3 – Penguins 1

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 9

For the Washington Capitals, Week 9 looked good from the perspective of wins and losses, but it had an odd flavor about it, like milk that is about to turn bad.  It’s still palatable, but it really needs to be replaced by something fresher, something better.

Record: 2-1-0

Nine weeks are in the books, and the Caps have eight winning weeks, two four-week winning streaks sandwiched around a .500 week.  And finally, after relentless pursuit of the Montreal Canadiens, the Caps are poised to overtake the Montreal Canadiens for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.   At the end of Week 4 the Caps found themselves seven points behind the Canadiens, who have occupied the top spot in the East all season to date.  The Caps whittled that to five points in Week 5 and maintained that distance in Week 6.  It was down to four points after Week 7, then three points after Week 8.  Now, it is down to one point, and the Capitals have three games in hand on Montreal.  As it is, only the Dallas Stars have earned more standings points per game to date (1.53) than the Caps (1.50) among the league’s 30 teams.

Offense:  1.67/game (season: 2.96 /game; rank: 5th)

It was a weak week in the offensive end of the ice.  While the Caps won both games in which they scored more than one goal, they barely did it, scoring two against Detroit in a 3-2 Gimmick win and two in a 2-1 win over Tampa Bay to close the week.  It is part of what matches the Caps worst goal-scoring drought of the season – six goals in their last four games (six goals over Games 8-11 in late October and early November). 

Part of the problem was getting shots on goal.  The Caps managed 81 shots on goal for the week, but almost half – 40 of them – came in the 3-2 Gimmick win over Detroit to open the week.  Breaking it down another way does not make it look any better.  The Caps scored two goals on their first 36 shots (5.6 percent) in the win over the Red Wings, but then went 3-for-45 (6.7 percent) over the rest of that win and the two games that followed.

Alex Ovechkin was the only Capital to record more than one goal in Week 9 (two).  He did it on 14 shots, but was held to one shot against Tampa Bay, just the second time this season he was held to one shot (in a 3-2 win At Montreal on November 3^rd).  Justin Williams had a goal eight shots, Jay Beagle had one on two shots, and Evgeny Kuznetsov had a goal on eight shots.  That’s five goals on 32 shots (15.6 percent), but the rest of the club went 0-for-49.

Defense: 2.33/game (season: 2.21 /game; rank:3rd)

The Caps came into Week 9 in the unusual position (for this season) of having allowed more than 30 shots on goal in four consecutive games and six of eight after having done it only once in their first 17 games.  The team returned to a sense of normalcy in the first two games of the week, giving up just 23 shots to the Red Wings to open the week and just 26 in the 4-1 loss to Florida in the middle game of the week.

It was a mixed week, though.  The Caps gave up 36 shots on goal to Tampa Bay to end the week, and there were broader issues with regard to shot attempts.  The 47 shot attempts at 5-on-5 recorded by Detroit in the first game of the week and the 62 (yes…62) shot attempts at 5-on-5 against Tampa Bay are the eighth-highest and top number of shot attempts allowed, respectively, so far this season at 5-on-5.  It made for a brutal week in the Caps’ underlying numbers.  They managed a Corsi-for percentage of just 39.2 overall.  The score-adjusted (44.9) and close score (44.0) numbers were somewhat better, but it did not salvage the week in that area (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 1.99 /.929 (season: 2.06 / .924 / 1 shutout)

It was a good week overall, but more specifically, Braden Holtby continued putting up very good, bordering on spectacular numbers.  Holtby appeared in two games in Week 9, stopping 56 of 59 shots (.949 save percentage) and posting a 1.44 goals against average.  He finished the week at or near the top in a number of categories: wins (18/1^st), goals against average (1.91/1^st), save percentage (.930/4^th), even strength save percentage (.940/5^th among goalies appearing in at least 15 games).  And, he was remarkable consistent, period to period.  He was 18-for-19 in the first periods of his two games (.947 save percentage), 16-for-17 in the second periods (.941), and 20-for-21 in the third periods (.952).

Philipp Grubauer got the call for the middle game of the week in the 4-1 loss to Florida.  He played in a bit of bad luck in that game, giving up a goal that was deflected out of mid-air, another on a 2-on-1 break, and another on a power-play one-timer.  On the other hand, it was the fourth time in five appearances he has allowed three or more goals and the third time in five games he finished with a save percentage under .900.

Power Play: 1-for-12 / 8.3 percent (season: 23.3 percent; rank: 3rd)

Week 9 was the worst week of the season of any win which the Caps had 10 or more power play opportunities.  In fact it was the worst such week for the Caps since Week 21 last season, when they also went 1-for-12.  It was not for lack of efficiency in one respect.  The Caps recorded 22 shots in 18:51 of power play ice time (1.17 shots per minute).  It was the 1-for-22 shooting (4.5 percent) that was the problem, much as shooting was for the week as a whole.

It was not even the “who” getting the shots that was the problem.  Alex Ovechkin had almost a third of the shots (seven), connecting once for the only man advantage goal of the week.  There was balance among the other seven skaters to record power play shots on goal, only two of them finishing with as many as three (Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov).  Perhaps it was the lack of defensemen getting pucks to the net; John Carlson (2) and Matt Niskanen (1) accounted for only three of the shots on goal.  Whatever it was, it was another dimension to what was a barren shooting week for the Capitals.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-11 / 81.8 percent (season: 83.5 percent; rank: 8th)

On the other side of special teams, the penalty killers were good, not great in Week 9.  First, the good.  The Caps held opponents to 11 shots in 17:32 of shorthanded ice time (0.63 shots per minute), including a full two-minute 4-on-3 power play in the 3-2 trick shot win over Detroit in the opening game of the week (the only shorthanded situation they faced in that game).

On the other hand, there were the 11 shorthanded situations the Caps faced.  It was the first time since Week 2 that they faced more than ten such situations in a week.  It was a bit uncharacteristic for a club that still managed to finish the week tied for the fourth-fewest number of shorthanded situations faced this season (79, with Calgary).

There was also the “who” as far as the goals scored is concerned.  Florida and Tampa Bay finished the week with the 12^th and 22^nd ranked power plays, respectively.  Even given the fact that the goals allowed were on the road, the Caps did not allow power play goals to elite power plays.

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 4-5 / minus-1 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.33 ; rank: T-2nd)

The 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning saved the week for the Caps as far as even strength goal scoring is concerned.  Going into that game the Caps had been outscored, 5-2, at evens.  But even though the Caps outscored the Lighting, 2-0, at even strength to get to a minus-1 for the week, they were steamrolled on shots, Tampa Bay recording 31 shots on goal at even strength to 16 for the Caps.  And no, that was not – or certainly not entirely – a case of score effects.  The Caps were outshot 11-6 at evens in the first period, held to nine apiece in the second, before being outshot 11-1 at even strength in the third period.

Faceoffs: 92-for-189 / 48.7 percent (season: 50.3% / rank: 11th)

It was not a good week for the Capitals in the faceoff circle.  They were under 50 percent for the week, under 50 percent in two of the three games, and under 50 percent in two of the three zones overall for the week.  It was another case of two different ends and two different outcomes in Week 9.  In the offensive end of the ice the Caps struggled with an overall winning percentage of 41.3 percent (26-for-63).  It was just the opposite in the defensive zone where Washington finished with a 55.7 percent mark (39-for-70).

The Caps managed their best against the 20^th-ranked Detroit Red Wings, winning 55.2 percent of their draws in the first game of the week.  It does not explain how the Caps could finish with a 45.9 percent winning percentage against the 21^st-ranked Florida Panthers.

Individually, those who took more than ten draws by and large struggled, too.  Nicklas Backstrom (49.3 percent), Evgeny Kuznetsov (35.4), and Michael Latta (46.2) finished under 50 percent.  Only Jay Beagle (66.7 percent) had his head above water for the week.  And here is a weird stat.  Only one team in the league has won fewer even strength faceoffs than the Caps (New Jersey).  And, only two teams have lost fewer (San Jose and Carolina).

Goals by Period:

The best to be said as far as the distribution of goals by period was that they were balanced among the three period.  The other side of it is that the Caps were outscored in the second and third periods, by one goal in each.  The third period was a bit disturbing on the goals allowed side.  Three goals scored in the three games (two by Florida – one an empty netter – and one against Tampa Bay) represented 15 percent of the total the club allowed over their first 25 games of the season (20).  It was a case of not quite locking down the last 20 minutes in a way the team had done in those first 25 games.  As it is, the Caps are still eighth in the league in third period goals allowed.  And, the Caps are the only club in the league ranking in the top ten in goals allowed in each of the three regulation periods.

In the end…

The Caps passed the one-third mark of the season in Week 9.  With 20 wins in 28 games they matched their fastest-to-20 club record, set in 1991-1992 (20-8-0).  It has not been pretty lately, though.  The Caps’ possession numbers are poor compared to their season start, they have been slipping in the little things like faceoffs, and their scoring offense has dried up.  They are depending entirely too much on goalie Braden Holtby, and while he certainly shows no signs of slipping on his part, it would be nice if starting in Week 10 for others to pick up their game and shoulder more of the burden.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-0, 1.44, .949)
• Second Star: John Carlson (0-2-2, even, 54.0 score-adjusted Corsi-for percentage).
• Third Star: Jay Beagle (1-0-1, even, 24-for-36 on faceoffs, one bloody nose)

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Lightning 1

The Washington Capitals escaped Florida with a split on their fathers and mentors trip as they defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning, 2-1, at Amalie Arena in Tampa on Saturday night.  “Escaped” might be too kind a term.

The Capitals got off on the right foot in the first period.  Just over two minutes into the contest, Stanislav Galiev intercepted a pass up the wall by Alex Killorn in the Tampa Bay zone and circled from out of the corner to the right of Lightning goalie Ben Bishop.  Galiev saw an opening from the edge of the faceoff circle and fired the puck at the net.  The puck looked headed wide on the short side, but it rode up on Jay Beagle at the side of the net and hit him in the face.  The puck dropped to Beagle’s feet and from below the goal line he batted the puck off of Bishop’s backside and into the net to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 2:09 into the game.

That goal was the only scoring for the next 31 minutes.  Just after the 11-minute mark of the second period, Evgeny Kuznetsov worked some magic.  There was a lot that went on as the play unfolded.  It started with John Carlson from between the hash marks firing a puck that went wide to Bishop’s right and skittered around the corner.  Andrej Sustr tried to move the puck off the wall to the middle, but the pass was picked off by Carlson, who turned and directed another attempt at the Lightning net.  And then something very odd happened. 

Ryan Callahan blocked Carlson’s shot, and the puck bounced to Kuznetsov, who grabbed it and started circling toward the net.  For some odd reason, Callahan laid out, perhaps trying to deny a cross-ice pass (or maybe he just fell), and then Anton Stralman spun from his knees (what he was doing there was a bit of a mystery) and tried to swipe the puck off Kuznetsov’s stick as he was going by.  It looked as if Callahan and Stralman, laid out on the ice end-to-end, were trying to create some sort of human chain gang.

While this was going on, Kuznetsov curled to the net as if he was going to try to loop around and come out the other side for a shot.  Bishop might have been thinking the same thing, because he looked to cheat just a touch off the near post.  It was enough for Kuznetsov to pull the puck to his forehand just as he was crossing below the goal line, bring the puck back across the ling, and tuck it just inside the post and gently over the goal line to give the Caps a 2-0 lead that they would carry into the third period.

The 2-0 lead proved to be, if not the most dangerous lead in hockey, then the most treacherous.  Tampa Bay made things interesting in the third period when, on their third power play of the game, Nikita Kucherov one-timed a puck past goalie Braden Holtby to cut the Caps’ lead in half.

That would be all the scoring for either team, though, as Holtby stood tall and ensured the back of his net would be left undisturbed for the remainder of the contest, the Caps skating off with a 2-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- 31-0-4.  That is the Caps’ record in the last 35 games in which Jay Beagle recorded a point.  Beegsy is happy…

-- Reasonable people will take winning and playing poorly over playing well and losing 100 times out of 100.  But the Caps were demolished in possession numbers in this game.  For the game, Tampa Bay out-attempted the Caps by a 62-37 margin at 5-on-5.  That’s a 37.4 Corsi-for percentage.  For the uninitiated in Corsi, that’s not good.  Even slathering on some score-adjusted sauce doesn’t make it much more palatable (41.4).  And while the third period was really bad (23-7 shot attempt advantage for the Lightning), it was not as if it was a case of good numbers in the first period (20-13, Lightning) or the second period (19-17, Lightning) being replaced by prevent defense (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

-  Tampa Bay came into this game among the leaders in games in which they allowed opponents two or fewer goals (fifth in the league).  They also happened to be among the leaders in games in which they scored two or fewer goals (fourth).  They added to their totals on both sides of the ledger.  It was the tenth game this season for the Lighting in which both they and their opponents scored two or fewer goals.

-- Speaking of two or fewer goals, the two goals scored by the Caps makes it nine times in their last 15 games that they have been held to two or fewer in the hockey portion of the contest.

-- The Capitals are now 8-0-0 following losses, outscoring opponents by a 28-12 margin. 

-- This comeback from a loss in the previous game went against type in one respect.  Before tonight, the Caps faced four shorthanded situations in a game following a loss just once in seven occurrences (the killed three of four in a 5-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers on November 12^th).  They faced four such situations in this game, also killing three of four.

-- Of the four minor penalties leading to Tampa Bay power plays, three were the result of tripping calls.  Matt Niskanen was caught twice cashing in frequent flyer miles for a trip.

-- How many games do the Caps win when Alex Ovechkin records just one shot on goal.  Well, this would make it two this year.  The other was in a 3-2 win in Montreal against the Canadiens on December 3^rd.  And how many times has Alex Ovechkin been held to one shot on goal this season?  …two.

-- Braden Holtby is a lousy guest.  He comes into your place, drinks all your beer, eats all your snacks, leaves crumbs in the seat cushions.  And wins games, too.  With this performance, Holtby’s road record is now 7-2-1, 1.99, .929.  Only once in ten road games has he allowed more than two goals, a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers on November 3^rd.

-- Andre Burakovsky had a difficult night.  He banged a shot off the crossbar and a pipe in the first period, then he got just two shifts in the third period (none in the last 8:43).  More hard lessons to be learned.

In the end…

The Capitals are relying a bit too much on their goaltender to bail them out of games.  Philipp Grubauer is not yet polished enough at this level to do it regularly, and he was unable to steal a win against the Florida Panthers when the Caps’ offense (and defense for that matter) wasn’t working well.  Braden Holtby is sufficiently accomplished to steal games, but it is not something on which the Caps will want to depend so much over the course of a long season with 54 games yet to play in the regular season.  The skaters have to do more in the other end – not just scoring, which certainly would be welcome, but in tilting the ice to the offensive end with better possession numbers.

Still, this is a team that plays with a consistency of performance (scoring, wins and losses) that is rather remarkable as deep into the season as they are.  By this time last season, through 28 games, the Caps had already recorded four instances of two or more consecutive losses, including a five-game losing streak.  This is a team that is now 52-22-8 over its last 82 games.  The Capitals will be tested, though, as they head to Pittsburgh for the last contest of the three-game road trip and the Penguins under their new head coach.  If this season’s history is a guide, they will hardly be fazed.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 28: Capitals at Lightning, December 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals played what was arguably their worst game in five weeks when they dropped a 4-1 decision to the Florida Panthers in the first leg of their three-game road trip.  Not since the Caps lost in New York to the Rangers, 5-2, on November 3rd did the Caps look as disorganized as they did against the Panthers on Thursday night.  Worse, they did it with many fathers and mentors of players in attendance.

The Caps get a chance to redeem themselves and put a smile on their elders’ faces on Saturday night when the Caps complete the Florida portion of their road trip with a game in Tampa against the Lightning at Amalie Arena.

This will be the second meeting of the clubs this season and first in Florida.  Washington defeated the Lightning, 4-2, on November 27th at Verizon Center.  Since that meeting, the teams have traveled similar paths…

If anything, the recent record of the Caps is a bit of a slowdown from their 16-5-1 start, but it is still among the fastest starts in club history. On the other hand, the 3-2-0 record for the Lightning is just more of what they had been doing to start the season.  The Lightning does have two three-game winning streaks this season, but they have been hard pressed to generate any sense of momentum.  It does not even seem to matter whether they have done it at home or on the road, the lurching, stumbling progress has been the same – 7-5-1 at home (19th-ranked home ice record) and 7-7-0 on the road (12th).

The Lightning have not been especially productive in the offensive end of the ice in the five games since they faced the Caps.  With all due respects to the players involved, if J.T. Brown is tied for the points lead (1-3-4), Brian Boyle (2) and Nikita Kucherov (4) are the only players with more than one goal, and the guy you expect to be the leader in scoring goals has none in his last seven games and two in his last 11, this is not a mix conducive to long term success.

Which brings us to “the triplets.”  Last year, Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat made quite a trio, accounting for 74 goals as a group.  Their possession numbers as a group was just about as good (53 percent).  Kucherov has certainly contributed from the right side  recently and has ten goals for the season (second to Stamkos’ 11).  Johnson and Palat, however, are not having quite the same impact as Kucherov or even as they had last season.  Johnson has four goals in 23 games, although all of them have come in his last 11 games.  He has missed a number of games this season to an upper body injury.  Palat has two goals in 17 games and just returned to the lineup on December 10^th after missing three weeks with a lower body injury.  As a group, these three players have eight career goals against the Caps in 19 games.

There might be a fair amount of talk as the season unfold whether Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price, Marc-Andre Fleury, or even Braden Holtby should be given consideration for the Vezina Trophy.  Here is another name – Ben Bishop.  While the four goalies mentioned have certainly had fine starts to the season (or at least while healthy in the case of Price), Bishop is second in the league in goals against average (1.95; minimum: 750 minutes) and fourth in save percentage (.931).  He has gone 15 straight appearances without having allowed more than two goals in consecutive games (7-6-1, 1.59, .944, one shutout).  What is amazing is that in that run he lost five games in regulation when allowing two or fewer goals.  Bishop is 1-4-1, 3.96, .884 in seven career appearances against the Caps. 

1.  Part of Tampa Bay’s problem is weak special teams.  Their special teams index (power play plus penalty killing percentages) ranks 27th in the league (94.5).

2.  So far this season, three teams have failed to earn a standings point when trailing after two periods.  Tampa Bay is one of them with a 0-8-0 record when trailing after 40 minutes (the Rangers and Avalanche are the other teams).

3.  Only four teams have scored two or fewer goals in more games than the Lightning (16): Vancouver (17), Columbus (17), Anaheim (17), and Florida (18).  Conversely, only three teams have allowed two or fewer goals in more games than the Lightning (16): Washington (17), Montreal (17), and the Rangers (19).

4.  The Lightning might beat teams, but they don’t beat them up.  Only Toronto has fewer fighting majors this season (1) than Tampa Bay (2).

5.  The Lightning might be skating in a bit of bad luck, or perhaps they are deep in talented finishers.   Their possession numbers are not bad: 11th in Corsi-for overall at 5-on-5 (51.3), 11^th in score adjusted Corsi (51.6), and 11^th in close score Corsi (50.6; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  If Tampa Bay’s special teams are weak, the opposite is true for the Caps.  Their special teams index ranks second in the league (107.9) to the Boston Bruins (108.5).

2.  One thing you can probably count on is that the winner of this game will be the team going to the locker room at the second intermission with a lead.  There are seven teams with perfect records when leading after 40 minutes, and the Caps and Lightning represent two of them.  Only the New York Rangers have more wins in those situations (13-0-0) than the Caps (12-0-0).

3.  Alex Ovechkin is on a pace to finish the season with 427 shots on goal.  If he hits that mark it would be his highest shots on goal total since 2008-2009 when he finished with 528 shots on goal.

4.  No Capitals defenseman appears in the top-50 of goals allowed/on-ice.  Matt Niskanen is tied for 56^th with being on ice for only 26 goals against.

5.  Washington has not experienced consecutive games with overall Corsi at 5-on-5 of over 50 percent since they did it in back-to-back games on November 12^th against Philadelphia (51.7) and on November 13^th against Calgary (60.7).  In 11 games since they have been over 50 percent just three times and are a cumulative 48.5 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos

The Internet forgets nothing.  And when one of the most prolific goal scorers of his era “likes” a "tweet" about the possibility of his leaving his current employer for another (who happens to reside in his hometown), people will take notice.  Steven Stamkos is not having a banner year so far (11 goals in 29 games), and this cannot help.  He is on an oh-fer over his last seven games on just 13 shots.  While he is one of the most efficient shooters in the league (17.1 percent for his career), he is on a pace to finish with his lowest shot total (204) of any full season in which he played since his rookie year in 2008-2009 (181 in 79 games).  Stamkos is 14-13-27, minus-14, in 33 career games against Washington.

Washington:  Braden Holtby

It would seem likely that it will be largely up to Braden Holtby to keep the Caps’ record intact of not having lost consecutive games this season.  And frankly, this will be a challenge.  In four games following relief from Philipp Grubauer this season, Holtby is 2-2-0, 2.75, .889.  Almost half of the 11 goals he allowed in those four games came in the 5-2 loss to the Rangers on November 3^rd, and he does have a good save percentage in the other three games (.922), but it might be something that bears watching in this game.  Holtby is 6-2-1, 3.10, .904, with one shutout in 10 career appearances against the Lightning, including a 32-save effort in a 4-2 win against Tampa Bay on November 27^th.

In the end…

This is really pretty simple.  That Florida game? 

Don't do dat...

If they don’t, they will be just fine.

Capitals 3 – Lightning 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A NO-Point Night: Panthers 4 - Capitals 1

The Peerless is a bit under the weather, so Cheerless is going to weigh in with a few observations from the Washington Capitals’ 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers last night...

-- That Jagr is somethin’, isn’t he?  Just 21 seconds in, and he went all “Penguins” on the Caps, knocking a puck out of mid-air past Philipp Grubauer.  He’s got 31 career goals against the Caps now.  That’s second among active players.  Vincent Lecavalier has 35 against Washington.

-- And maybe I’m just all wrong about this, but wasn’t Grubauer supposed to be an upgrade from Justin Peters as the backup goalie?  That’s three games in four that he’s allowed three or more goals, and he’s got a goals against average of 2.79 and a save percentage is .896.  Okay, he is an upgrade (Peters was 2.98/.882 after five games last season), and not all goals are goalies’ fault (like that Jagr one or the 2-on-1 that Aaron Ekblad scored on), but is he all that much of one right now?

-- Six power plays against?  That’s five or more in two of their last three games.  Maybe not a coincidence, but they also allowed power plays in those two games.  Frankly, the PK leaves something to be desired these days.  It’s 20-for-25 in the last nine games.  Not bad (80.0 percent), but not the top-five group it was a little while ago, either.

-- Tom Wilson had no penalty minutes in his first six games this season and only eight in his first 12 games.  With 15 minutes last night (and is there a call from the league coming?), he has 50 PIMs in his last 15 games.  He is now fourth in the league in penalty minutes.  Not sure this is the chart he should be climbing.

-- And speaking of penalties…Alex Ovechkin – two penalties, one hit.  Odd result.  At least he didn’t get hit for ticky-tack calls.  A high-sticking and a cross-checking.

-- Ovechkin did have a goal, so there is that.  And he’s been doing it in “two turtle doves” style.  He had goals in consectuve games on November 19th and 21st, goals in consecutive games on November 25th and 27th, and now goals in consecutive games on Tuesday and Thursday of this week.  He’s up to seventh in the league in goals, now (14).

-- It’s not as if they made Al Montoya work for his win in goal for the Panthers.  The Caps had just 21 shots on goal, only four in the last 20:57 of the game.  More than half of them came from Ovechkin (5), Evgeny Kuznetsov (4) and T.J. Oshie (3). Five of the forwards (Jason Chimera, Tom Wilson, Michael Latta, Jay Beagle, and Marcus Johansson) had none.  Geez, guys…even the new guy, Chris Brown, had a shot on goal, and he played less than eight minutes.

-- Chimera and Taylor Chorney were the only Caps not credited with a hit.  Angry hockey is apparently not successful hockey.

-- That was the first time in more than a month that the Caps allowed four or more goals.  They had gone 15 straight games not doing so since they lost a 5-2 decision to the New York Rangers back on November 3rd.

-- The power play was 0-for-5.  That is the first time this season that the Caps had five or more power plays and failed to convert any of them.

As Peerless might say, in the end… they stunk.  The dads deserved better.  But hey, not every game is moonshine and moonbeams.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 27: Capitals at Panthers, December 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off their 3-2 freestyle competition win over the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, the Washington Capitals head south to start a three-game road trip with a contest against the Florida Panthers at BB&T Center in Sunrise, Florida.

For the Capitals it will be their second and final visit with the Panthers this season (the teams face one another on February 2^nd in Washington).  The Capitals won the first meeting in south Florida this season, a 2-1 overtime win on Hallowe’en on what was described by Caps play-by-play announcer Joe Beninati as a “magical” play…

The win capped off a fine opening month for the Caps, who finished October with an 8-2-0 record.  They have hardly slowed down since, going 11-3-2 since that meeting and 7-0-1 in their last eight games.

Meanwhile the Panthers have climbed to within a point of a top-eight spot in the Eastern Conference on the strength of a 5-2-0 record over their last seven games.  That record would look a lot better if the losses were not a pair of 4-2 defeats in their last two games, losing at New Jersey to the Devils and dropping the next game – the Panthers’ most recent – to the Ottawa Senators on home ice last Tuesday.

Still, the 5-2-0 record is a big improvement over the Panthers’ 8-9-4 start to the season.  In these most recent seven games the Panthers did not build a winning record with offense.  Only once in those seven contests did they score more than two goals (a 3-1 win over St. Louis on December 1^st), and they scored 14 in all.  They did do it with defense and goaltending.  The Panthers limited their seven opponents to an average of 25.9 shots per game, and the goalies did the rest.  In allowing just 14 goals overall, Roberto Luongo was 4-2-0, 1.99, .924, and Al Montoya stopped 22 of 23 shots in his lone appearance in this stretch, a 2-1 Gimmick win over the Columbus Blue Jackets last Friday.  Given Luongo’s considerable body of work against the Caps (36 games, 20-10-2 record, 2.29 GAA, .926 save percentage, two shutouts), he would seem likely to get the call for the Panthers in this game.

Florida is another of those teams that has a glass half full/glass half empty character to their offense in recent games.  They have few goals (14 in their last seven games), but they do have balance.  Ten different Panthers share in the goal total, four of them – Jonathan Huberdeau, Reilly Smith, Derek MacKenzie, and Brandon Pirri each with a pair.

Jonathan Huberdeau finally gave some glimpses last season at what his potential might be as a former third-overall draft pick (2011).  He posted 15 goals and 54 points in 79 games, the 54 points leading the club.  This season the goals have been harder to come by; he has only three in 28 games.  But he is still averaging more than half a point a game (15 in 28 games).  In this 5-2-0 stretch for the Panthers, Huberdeau is recording points every other game.  Extending the pattern would put him in line to record a point against the Caps, but patterns do not last in perpetuity.  Huberdeau is 2-3-5, minus-3, in 11 career games against Washington.

Derek MacKenzie is at the other end of the development path from Huberdeau.  A former fifth-round pick of the Atlanta Thrashers, the 34-year old forward is with his third club, spending the last two seasons in Florida after seven years with the Columbus Blue Jackets after four seasons with the Thrashers.  Offense has not been a feature of his game.  In 417 career games, MacKenzie has just 39 goals.  He is one of 13 active forwards with more than 400 career regular season games played and fewer than 40 goals.  He is a decent faceoff competitor (55.1 percent, tops on the club) and will get tough defensive assignments (he has been on ice for only nine goals against in 28 games).   He is 2-1-3, minus-3, in 11 career games against the Capitals.

Here is how the teams stack up against one another overall:

1.  Winning and power play success have not gone together in the Panthers’ 5-2-0 run.  The power play is 1-for-16 (6.3 percent) over its last seven games.  The penalty kill has been a different story.  Florida was perfect in the first six games of this stretch (16-for-16) before giving up two in five chances last Tuesday in the 4-2 loss to Ottawa.

2.  Florida has shown a certain adeptness for scoring first in games that might be surprising for a club on the outside looking in at the playoff eight.  The Panthers scored first in 16 of 28 games to date.  Their problem has been sustaining the momentum.  They rank 16^th in winning percentage in game in which they score first (.688 with a record of 11-3-2).

3.  It gets a lot worse for the Panthers when they allow the first goal.  While difficulty in scoring first is a decent predictor of a lack of success in the NHL overall,  Florida pushes those limits.  The Panthers are 2-8-2 when the opponent scores first, a winning percentage (.167) that ranks 29^th of 30 teams.

4.  No team has more players on its roster older than 35 to have appeared in ten or more games than the Panthers, who have four – Jaromir Jagr, Shawn Thornton, Willie Mitchell, and Brian Campbell.  Three of them (Jagr, Mitchell, and Campbell) average more than 15 minutes a game, and Campbell leads the team in average ice time (20:59).

5.  Florida is not an especially effective possession team.  Their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (46.8/ranked 26^th), score adjusted (46.9/28^th), and in close score situations (46.4/T-25^th) are all bottom-five in the league (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  For a while, Alex Ovechkin could not find the back of the net on the power play with a map and a flashlight.  He had just one power play goal in his first 19 games this season.  However, his last three goals scored have come on the man advantage.  He has five goals in his last nine games, inching slightly closer to a 50-goal pace overall (currently a 42-goal pace).

2.  Nicklas Backstrom went consecutive games without a point on Hallowe’en and in his next contest on November 3^rd.  It is the last time he has gone consecutive games without a point.  Backstrom is 5-10-15 in his last 15 games and comes into this game on a personal  six-game points streak (2-5-7).

3.  Six teams have two defensemen with more than ten assists, and the Capitals are one of them.  John Carlson (15) and Matt Niskanen (11) are the Capitals’ entries.

4.  The Caps are the only team in the league to have allowed 20 or fewer goals in each of the first (18), second (17), and third periods (20) of games.

5.  Washington still has not done much to improve their possession numbers on their eight-game points streak.  Their Corsi-for numbers are teetering on the 50-percent line: 48.2 percent overall, 50.1 percent in score adjusted, and 48.0 in close score situations (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Jaromir Jagr

When Jaromir Jagr was in the midst of a five-game points streak late last month he was a fine story of achievement well into his 40’s.  He has just two points in his last six games and does not have a goal in his last eight contests.   What is more, the shots are drying up.  He has two or fewer shots on goal in his last eight games, and only once in his last 18 games (24 shots on goal overall).  At the age of 43 it would be reasonable to wonder if the run is starting to come to an end.  His possession numbers have been uneven, too.  Overall, his score adjusted Corsi-for percent at 5-on-5 is 50.8.  On an individual game basis his Corsi-for/Relative has been all over the place with seven of nine games in negative territory followed up by seven of eight in positive territory.  Part of it is that Florida is still a developing team, but those numbers will bear watching in the weeks and months ahead, too.  Jagr has played almost a full season’s worth of career regular season games against the Caps (78 in fact) and is 30-60-90, plus-14.

Washington:  Karl Alzner

It is a good thing Karl Alzner has been given the green light to play on Thursday night after sitting out a practice on Wednesday.  Alzner, who has appeared in 402 consecutive games for the Caps, has two career goals against Florida.  It might not sound like a lot, but he does not have more against any other NHL team (he also has two against the Boston Bruins and the New Jersey Devils).  But seriously, with Brooks Orpik having missed 12 games with a lower body injury and who is expected to be out for the foreseeable future, having Alzner on the blue line taking his usual ice time workload and defensive responsibilities is important for the Caps to maintain the success they have had, even in Orpik’s absence.  Alzner is 2-4-6 (the point total also a high among NHL teams he has faced), plus8, in 27 career games against the Panthers.

In the end…

The Panthers are no push over, especially in Florida, where the Caps and Panthers have played in seven straight one-goal games dating back to February 2012, four of them settled in extra time.  The positive spin on that is that the Caps have a 5-0-2 record in those games.  If Roberto Luongo starts in goal it will be his first appearance against the Caps this season.  The last time the Caps faced him in Florida, this happened…

Let’s not have a repeat performance.

Capitals 3 – Panthers 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 3 - Red Wings 2 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals did it again. They avoided losing consecutive games for the first time this season, posting a 3-2 Gimmick win over the Detroit Red Wings at Verizon Center on Tuesday night. The Caps leap-frogged the New York Rangers into first place in the Metropolitan Division with the win.

Things started well for the Caps, who got a goal from Justin Williams to open the scoring just 43 seconds into the game. The Red Wings were unable to clear the puck out of the defensive zone. Marcus Johansson got his stick on a sliding loose puck at the top of the zone and nudged it to Evgeny Kuznetsov. From there, Kuznetsov circled to the net where Johansson and Williams were also headed. As Kuznetsov closed on the net and tried to get a shot off, he was worked off the puck by Niklas Kronwall. However, Johansson was occupying two Red Wings, and it created an opening for Williams to lean in, stretch out his stick, and slide the puck past goalie Jimmy Howard for a 1-0 lead.

The Caps could not carry that lead into the first intermission, though. Henrik Zetterberg tied the game with 4:20 left in the period when the Red Wings won a battle for the puck off a faceoff in the Caps’ end, and Dylan Larkin found Zetterberg for a tap-in from the top of the crease.

The Caps’ streak of games avoiding consecutive losses was put in jeopardy early in the second period when Tomas Jurco was left all alone at the top of the crease to take a pass from Joakim Andersson and beat goalie Braden Holtby past the left pad.

The game remained 2-1, in favor of the visitors, until midway through the third period. Then, on a power play, the Caps worked the puck down to the front of the Detroit net. Johansson tried to stuff it through Howard’s pads, but the puck squirted out to Howard’s right. Alex Ovechkin darted down from the faceoff circle to snap the puck into the back of the net before Howard could stretch his leg across to defend the shot, and the game was tied, 2-2, at the 10:51 mark.

That would be it for the hockey portion of the contest. In the freestyle competition, T.J. Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov beat Howard, and Holtby stopped Gustav Nyquist and Pavel Datsyuk, giving the Caps a 3-2 win.

Other stuff…

-- For Alex Ovechkin, his goal was his fourth power play goal of the season, which seems light by his standards. However, through 25 games played last season he had six power play goals. He is one good game off that pace.

-- Marcus Johansson added two assists, and he is on a nice little run of late.  Johansson is 2-5-7 in his last seven games.

-- They were doing oh, so good, too.  That is, until the 2:35 mark of overtime.  The Caps, who are tied for the third-fewest number of minor penalties this morning, took one – courtesy of Alex Ovechkin – in overtime, putting the Red Wings on a 4-on-3 power play.  The Red Wings managed two shots on goal, then took a minor penalty of their own shortly after their power play expired.  Ovechkin got the Caps lone shot on the ensuing power play, but he could not get that second power play goal.

-- Uh, NHL?...T.J. Oshie did NOT score a shootout goal from 161 feet out.  He’s good in that phase of the game, but not THAT good…

-- The “Chorlov” defensive pair had a rough game.  Both Detroit goals were scored from point-blank range (a combined 19 feet, officially), and both Taylor Chorney and Dmitry Orlov were the defensemen on the ice and not in position to help prevent those scores.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov gets the all-you-can-eat buffet coupon… an assist, plus-1, three shots on goal, four shot attempts, a hit, a giveaway, two takeaways, two blocked shots, 13 draws taken (okay, he lost nine of them) in 20:46 of ice time.  His assist on Williams’ goal broke a season-long three-game streak without a point.

-- Don’t look now, but with his assist last night, Nicklas Backstrom has points in his last six games (2-5-7) and in 12 of his last 15 contests (5-10-15).  Does anyone put together streaks more quietly than Backstrom?

-- Brooks Laich skated just two shifts in the third period and one in overtime.  His 9:00 in ice time was not his lowest of the season, but he could see it from there (7:16 against the Pittsburgh Penguins on October 28th).

-- The Caps returned to their stingy ways, shots allowed-wise.  The Red Wings finished with 23 shots on goal, breaking a four-game streak in which the Caps allowed more than 30 shots to opponents.  The consistency was nice, too.  Detroit had declining shot totals by period, and in no period did they reach double digits.

-- It made for an easier night for Braden Holtby, who earned the game’s second star, and for the 11th time in his last 13 games allowed two or fewer goals (11-1-1, 1.74, .949, one shutout).

In the end…

The Caps won the season series against the Red Wings with two wins in three games.  All were hard-fought and played close.  All of them were one-goal decisions, and the Caps taking two of them is a nice achievement, given that the Red Wings came into this game with the most wins in one-goal decisions in the league (11). 

It was also good to see Alex Ovechkin score a power play marker, even if it came more from being opportunistic than from a standard set-play one-timer (watching Ovechkin jumping on a loose puck in front of the net brings to mind the adjective “rabid”). 

There is no rest and no time to ponder the win, though, for the Caps head out on the road for a three-game trip – two games in Florida against the Panthers and the Lightning, and one in Pittsburgh.  It will be a test of a trip.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 26: Red Wings at Capitals, December 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return from their three-game road swing on Tuesday night to host the Detroit Red Wings in the Caps’ first home game of December and the last meeting of these two teams for the regular season.

The Capitals finished their road trip with a successful 2-0-1 record, lifting their Metropolitan Division-best road record to 8-2-1.  The Caps are already one of three Metro teams with ten or more home wins this season, and one of four in the East with a record of 10-3-1.

Meanwhile, Detroit has yet to lose a game in December (3-0-0), and the Red Wings have points in their last ten contests (7-0-3).  The recent run has lifted the Wings into second place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Montreal Canadiens, and has them sitting fifth in the Eastern Conference standings.

The Caps are one of the points victims in the Red Wings’ recent run of success, Washington defeating Detroit in overtime on November 18th by a 2-1 score.  The Caps will be looking to win the season series outright with a win on Tuesday night.

Since these teams last met, Detroit has outscored opponents by a 28-22 margin, posting a 6-0-2 record along the way.  Their special teams have not been particularly special over that span, the power play going 5-for-27 (18.5 percent) and the penalty killers going 20-for-26 (76.9 percent).

Individually, it has been Tomas Tatar leading the way over the last eight games with five goals (tied with Dylan Larkin) and nine points.  Tatar, who had a breakthrough year last season with 29 goals in playing all 82 games, is on a pace to finish in the same neighborhood this season (30 goal pace).  He has been consistent with last year’s performance in other areas as well.  His six power play points through 27 games (4-2-6) is on a similar pace with that he set last season – 19 points in 82 games (9-10-19).  He has been hot since Hallowe’en.  In 17 games since then he is 8-8-16, plus-4, and is shooting at a better than 17 percent rate (8-for-46).  Tatar is 1-3-4, plus-3, in eight career games against the Capitals.

Dylan Larkin is tied with Tatar for the team lead in goals (five) in the Wings’ 6-0-2 run since last facing the Caps and is on his way to a big rookie season.  He ranks third among all rookies in points (21, behind Arizona’s Max Domi and Chicago’s Artemi Panarin), and he leads all rookies in goals (11).  His plus-minus has almost lapped the rookie field (plus-19, far ahead of St. Louis’ Colton Parayko at plus-11), and he is tied for the league rookie lead in game winning goals with three.  Larkin has a goal and is a plus-1 in the two games played against the Caps this season.

The Red Wings seemed to have settled into a goalie rotation.  Neither Jimmy Howard nore Petr Mrazek have recorded decisions in more than two consecutive games this season.  Mrazek has played more minutes (922 to 709 for Howard), and while Mrazek also has the better save percentage (.924 to .918), Howard has the better goals against average (2.28 to 2.41).  Each has a shutout.  Mrazek has both decisions against the Caps this season (1-0-1, 0.99, .969, 1 shutout) and has far superior career numbers than Howard against the Caps – GAA (1.54 to 3.37), save percentage (.944 to .876), and shutouts (one to none).

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Detroit is generally thought of as a “mature” team (ok, “old”), but of the 25 skaters to dress for the club this season, seven have yet to reach their 25th birthday, and Tomas Tatar just celebrated his on December 1st.  Two of them – Tatar and Dylan Larkin – are tied for the team lead in points (21).  Larkin leads the team in goals (11), while Tatar is tied for second (10, with Gustav Nyquist).

2.  Despite the fact that Detroit has five defensemen with five or more points and seven with goals on their resume this season, they do not have a top-end shooter.  Only one defenseman – Mike Green – ranks in the top 75 defensemen in shots on goal (tied for 75th with 35).

3.  Detroit scores first, often.  In 27 games they have recorded the first goal 19 times, tops in the league.  Their 14 wins when scoring first is tied for the league lead with Montreal and the New York Rangers.

4.  Conversely, and owning to the infrequency of occurrence, no team has fewer wins when allowing the first goal than Detroit (once in eight games).

5.  The Red Wings are largely a middle of the road team, or slightly higher, in possession. They rank 12th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (50.7), 11th in score-adjusted Corsi-for (51.6), and 11th in close score situations (50.6).  It is worth noting, though, that in eight games since they last faced Washington, their score-adjusted Corsi-for is 56.5 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps have spread power play scoring around rather well.  Nine Caps have recorded at least one power play goal through 25 games, and 12 have points.  The shooting is another matter.  While Alex Ovechkin has been held largely in check in terms of points, his 45 shots on goal with the man advantage exceeds the total of the next three Caps in line (42 from John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov).

2.  As a team, the Caps have a faceoff winning percentage of 50.5, ranked 11th in the league.  However, on the power play they have a faceoff winning percentage of 56.2.

3.  Intermissions continue to be kind to the Caps if they are leading.  Washington is 7-0-0 when leading at the first intermission and 12-0-0 when leading at the second intermission.  They are the only team with perfect records in first and second intermissions combined.

4.  If you subscribe to the notion that “blocked shots” is a negative indicator (one that reflects the other team having the puck), you would be happy to know that the Caps have the sixth fewest blocked shots in the league (334).

5.  While the Red Wings have been scaling up their possession numbers since the last played the Caps, Washington has had issues.  Their score-adjusted Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 over their last eight games is just 50.3, well below their season number of 53.0 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Mike Green

It has taken Mike Green quite a while to get started with his new club after spending ten seasons with the Capitals.  It was not until his 11th game that he had more shots on goal than blocked shots (14 to 12) and until his 13th game that he had more shots on goal (19) than hits (18).  It was not until his 14th game that he recorded his first goal as a Red Wing, that coming in a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings on November 20th.  He has however, been building a more robust scoring resume for six weeks or so.  In his last 15 games he is 1-9-10 (he tied for the team lead among defensemen in points with 11), but only two teammates have been on ice for more goals against overall than Green (21), and he has missed six games to injury.  Green did not record a point against his old team in two games this season.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov does not have a point in his last three games.  That might sound like a lot, but over his first 22 games he did not go consecutive games without a point.  He was much more into the flow of things in the Caps’ 2-1 overtime loss to Winnipeg on Saturday afternoon, posting six shots on goal after posting a total of six in his previous four games combined.  Maybe it was a Canadian thing.  Since he went 3-2-5 in a 7-4 win over Edmonton last October 23rd, Kuznetsov went without a point in five of seven games against Canadian teams and was 1-3-4 overall.  In his last five games against American teams he is 2-6-8 with a game-winning goal, that one coming overtime against the Red Wings on November 18th in a 2-1 win.  Kuznetsov is 3-0-3, plus-1, in five career games against Detroit.

In the end…

It seems odd in Game 26 to say that the season series between these clubs is coming to an end with this game, but the NHL schedule-maker acts in mysterious ways.  The Caps have been a good home club since the first of November, going 6-1-1 and winning their last four in a row, three of them by multi-goal margins.

On the other hand, what jumps off the page on the Detroit side is the number of extra time games.  Eight of their last ten games have been settled in overtime or the Gimmick, the Red Wings winning five of them, two of them on the road.

The Caps had their fill of Joe Louis Arena, splitting a pair of one-goal decisions (one, of course, in extra time).  On home ice, the results are going to be a bit different.

Capitals 4 – Red Wings 2