The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 31: Lightning at Capitals, December 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

For the third time in ten games the Washington Capitals will do battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning in a contest that will end the regular season series between the two teams.  The Caps won the first two games of the series and will try to complete the season sweep at Verizon Center on Friday night.

Not much has changed since we prognostified the contest of last Saturday, so let’s go with that.    One thing to note is that except for the Caps being able to subdue the Bolts, the teams are still heading along similar paths.  Both teams won both games they played since they met last weekend, the Caps beating Pittsburgh and Ottawa (allowing a total of two goals in the process), the Lightning beating Columbus on Toronto on their respective rinks.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Tampa Bay is a resourceful road team.  Of the 16 teams in the Eastern Conference, only Boston (22) and Washington (21) have more standings points earned in their opponents’ rinks than the Lightning (20) through Wednesday’s games.

2.  Special teams have been an issue for the Lightning away from Amelie Arena.  In 18 road games, their power play has connected just seven times in 56 opportunities, good for 27^th the league in road power play efficiency.  Their penalty kill is hardly better at 78.6 percent on 44 kills in 56 shorthanded situations (22^nd in the league).  Tampa Bay’s special teams index on the road (power play plus penalty kill efficiency) is 91.1, 25^th in the league.

3.  Steven Stamkos is in the midst of a ten-game goal scoring drought, his longest since an 11-game drought in December 2008, his rookie season.  He is within three games of his career worst streak of games without a goal – 13, set earlier in that 2008-2009 rookie season.  Stamkos has not scored a goal on the road since November 5^th at Buffalo.  He has gone eight road contests without a goal on 16 shots.  He has only four shots on goal over his last five road games, no more than one shot on goal in any of them.

4.  Tampa Bay’ strength on the road so far this season is keeping opponents off the scoreboard.  Their 2.28 goals against per game ranks fourth-best in the league.  It is what allows the Lightning to have the ninth best goal differential on the road this season (plus-0.17).

5.  Possession on the road has not been so much bad for the Lightning as it has just been mediocre to just above average.  Tampa Bay ranks 14^th in Corsi-for overall at 5-on-5 on the road (48.6), 13^th in score-adjusted Corsi-for (50.1), and ninth in close score (50.0; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Looking at the Caps at home, only the New York Rangers have more standings points earned at home this season (27) than Washington (25).  Only the Dallas Stars have earned more points per home game (1.60) than the Caps (1.56).

2.  Washington has had very efficient special teams at home, but there is an odd bias to them.   The power play is 13-for-50 (26.0 percent), ranked fourth in efficiency.   However, those 50 opportunities ranks 19^th in the league.  The opportunity element is even more pronounced on the other side of special teams.  The Caps are 33-for-40 in penalty killing on home ice (82.5 percent), ranked 14^th in the league.  It is not an especially impressive number or ranking, but the 40 shorthanded situations faced are the sixth-fewest faced in the league. 

3.  Alex Ovechkin likes home cooking.  Ten of his 14 goals have been scored in the friendly confines of Verizon Center.  He is tied for sixth in home goals scored this season.  What is more, he comes to this game on a hot streak on home ice.  He has seven goals in his last 10 games on F Street. And, he has been active, recording 54 shots on goal in those ten games, finishing with six or more shots in four of the ten games.

4.  The Caps have been a good, but not overwhelming offensive team on home ice so far.  Their 2.94 goals per game ranks tied for tenth in scoring offense on home ice.  It is on the defensive side where they have been impressive.  Their 2.13 goals per game at Verizon Center is tied for fifth in the league (odd fact, the Caps are tied in both home scoring offense and defense with Nashville, both scoring 47 goals in 16 home games and allowing 34 goals).  The Caps’ plus-0.81 goal differential on home ice is tied for fifth best in the league.

5.  The Caps are struggling with their possession numbers at home.  Washington ranks 12^th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall on home ice (51.9), 11^th in score adjusted Corsi-for (51.9) and 14^th in close score (51.2).  They finished below 50 percent overall in eight of their last 11 home games (numbers from war-on-ice.com). 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Jonathan Marchessault

Jonathan Marchessault has the longest name on the club and is its smallest player at 174 pounds.  He also has goals in his last two games, the only Lightning player who can make that claim.  An undrafted free agent out of Cap-Rouge, Quebec (shouldn’t he be a Capital with that home town?), he was signed by the Columbus Blue Jackets in July 2012, he played in only two games with the Jackets before he was signed last summer by the Lightning to a one-year deal.  He has shown a knack for scoring goals, having lit the lamp five times in 19 career games to date, four of those goals coming in 15 games this season.  He is without a point in two career games against the Caps.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera has become a fixture in Washington since arriving in trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets in December 2009.  And now, he is poised to join an interesting, if obscure club.  His next goal will be his 70^th with the team, and it will make him the sixth player since the 2005-2006 lockout to post at least 70 goals and at least 100 assists with the Caps.  The others are a who’s who of the modern era of Capitals – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, Brooks Laich, and Alexander Semin.  He has been in a bit of a slump lately, going without a goal in his last seven games.  The last goal he scored on home ice was against the Lightning in a 4-2 win on November 27^th.  Chimera is 7-8-15, plus-3, in 31 career games against the Lightning.

In the end…

The Caps have two wins in two tries against the Lightning this season, and the formula has been simple.  Score first (Alex Ovechkin in the first meeting, Jay Beagle in the second), make the Lightning pay when the Caps are on the power play (3-for-4 in the first meeting, 1-for-4 in the second), spread the scoring around (nine players had points in the first game, four shared in the points in the second), and get good goaltending (Braden Holtby is 2-0-0, 1.50, .957 in the two meetings).  It has been a formula over the past four weeks, so let’s go with that.

Capitals 3 – Lightning 1

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Senators 1

The Washington Capitals won their third straight game on Wednesday night and tenth in their last 12 contests when they held on to defeat the Ottawa Senators, 2-1, at Verizon Center.

It was game that for almost 55 minutes threatened to cure insomnia among those in attendance and those watching on television or their mobile devices.  But we will get to that.

The Caps were the only team to score in those first 54 minutes and change, scoring in the first period on a goal by Michael Latta.  It was an odd play all around, not just in who was the finisher.  The Caps were going for a line change in the 15^th minute of the first period, and there was some indecision about it.  While the Caps were sorting out who was going on and who was coming off, Dmitry Orlov found himself being fed the puck at the players’ bench by Taylor Chorney.  Orlov turned and just lobbed the puck into the Senators’ end.  The Senators were having issues of their own in coverage, and Latta took advantage to dart down the middle through open ice to collect the puck.  He skated in and flipped a forehand over goalie Andrew Hammond’s glove to make it 1-0 at the 14:06 mark.

John Carlson doubled the Caps’ lead in the second period on what was a great play by Justin Williams.  He broke out of a pack of players in the neutral zone and chased down a loose puck sliding toward the Ottawa blue line.  Once in control of the puck, he skated in with Curtis Lazar on his hip and hooking him.  Having drawn the delayed penalty, Williams curled off in the right wing faceoff circle and looked as if he was reading progressions for a pass the way a quarterback would in the NFL. 

Williams looked for Latta in the middle, but he was covered.   He did not have a shooting lane, nor a passing lane to Brooks Laich setting up in front.  He spied John Carlson entering the zone and hit him in stride with a pass that Carlson one-timed past Hammond to make it 2-0, a lead that would hold up for the rest of the period and much of the third period.

The Caps were nursing that 2-0 lead when this happened…

Let’s look at the tale of the tape on this, okay?  Tom Wilson is officially 6’4”/215.  Curtis Lazar is 6’0”/209.  Giving away four inches and looking in the opposite direction while skating hunched over, if you skate into the path of the larger opponent, your head might be at the level of the bigger player’s shoulder.  But even that was not the case.  Wilson’s shoulder hit Lazar’s shoulder, and the whiplash of the unsuspecting player flipped his helmet almost off, which made the play look worse.  Wilson received a match penalty (intent to injure). 

Chris Neil getting up in Wilson’s face got him a roughing minor that reduced the ensuing power play to three minutes, but it was sufficient for the Senators to halve the lead on a goal by Bobby Ryan, who had a deflected shot from Kyle Turris bounce off his leg and past goalie Braden Holtby with 4:14 left in regulation.

That would be all the scoring, though.  Holtby turned away the last five shots on goal from Ottawa, and the Caps extended their lead in the Eastern Conference to three points over the idle Montreal Canadiens.

Other stuff…

-- Players around the league talk to one another informally, and one suspects that there is an officials’ “grapevine,” too.  Maybe they asked one another if they read this from Elliotte Friedman:

“The NHL’s Player Safety Department met with several repeat offenders in an attempt to reign them in. One was Zac Rinaldo, who escaped suspension a week earlier for hitting Sean Couturier, much to the department’s chagrin. While in Arizona during camp, Chris Pronger spoke with Steve Downie and John Scott. New Jersey’s Jordin Tootoo was offered the opportunity after being fined for a dangerous trip. Now on the radar? Washington’s Tom Wilson. Several teams have complained about his hits. As of yet, no meeting. But it’s been requested.”

And if this is true, it is bad news for Tom Wilson, who seems to be getting special attention from the striped shirts.  It is hard, looking at a replay of his hit on Curtis Lazar, to understand how it qualified as a penalty, let alone a major, and certainly not a match penalty with intent to injure.  If I’m walking down the hall, looking to my left, and walk into a wall on my right, chances are it is going to stun me.  Ramp that up to hockey speed, and it was hardly surprising that Lazar would have found himself stunned by skating into the larger player who had momentum of his own.

--  That is the third straight game in which Braden Holtby allowed just one goal, that following five straight games allowing two goals.  Over those eight games he is 7-0-1, 1.59, .952.

-- The Caps out-attempted the Senators, 22-15, at 5-on-5 in the first period.  That sort of dominance did not carry into the second period (13-9, Ottawa) or the third period (9-8, Caps).   At least they were not dominated as they had been in some recent games.

-- Alex Ovechkin had a nice poker hand in this game…four threes.  Three shots on goal, three missed shots, three shots blocked, and three hits.  No points, though.  That makes three straight games without a point, his longest such streak since a season-high four-game streak back in mid-November.

-- T.J. Oshie and Dmitry Orlov were the only Caps not to record a shot on goal.

-- Michael Latta added an assist on the John Carlson goal, giving him a two-point game, the second multi-goal game of his career.  His last one was in a 5-4 Caps win over Columbus on December 18, 2014.

-- John Carlson’s goal gave him six on the season and 24 points, good enough for fourth place by himself in total scoring among defensemen.

-- The Caps had only nine shots on goal in the last 34:17 of the game.

-- John Carlson leading the Caps defensemen in shot attempts is not surprising (he did, with seven), but Taylor Chorney was next with four (two shots on goal, two attempts blocked).

-- Matt Niskanen had the sampler meal in this one – one shot, one missed shot, one hit, one giveaway, one takeaway, one blocked shot, one penalty.

In the end…

The Caps continue to bank points without the benefit of 60 minutes of their “A” game.  That is a good thing, standings-wise, but it is a situation that still could use some improvement, even if the Caps did finish north of 50 percent in Corsi at 5-on-5 (52.6 percent). They get contributions from a variety of sources, tonight’s being Michael Latta with a pair of points.  That is another good thing.  But the best thing of all continues to be Braden Holtby, who is putting together what could be one of the most special seasons in franchise history.

Getting sturdier contributions from other places will be of some importance as the Caps move into their “rematch” phase of the schedule.  They face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday in what will be their second meeting in eight days and third in less than a month.  Then it will be the New York Rangers, who laid a 5-2 thumping on the Caps in the first game of November in the last meeting of the clubs.  It’s all part of the adventure.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 30: Senators at Capitals, December 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals come roaring back home on Wednesday night to face the Ottawa Senators at Verizon Center.  The Capitals, who wrapped up a 2-1-0 road trip with a 4-1 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night, will meet the Senators with a 9-1-1 record in their last 11 games.  It is good enough to lift the Caps into the top spot in the Eastern Conference, pending the result of the Montreal Canadiens contest with the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night.

The Senators come to Verizon Center in somewhat different straits.  After posting a four-game winning streak leading up to Thanksgiving, Ottawa is 4-5-0 in their last nine games, and two of their wins were earned in overtime.   They have been outscored by a 26-24 margin in those nine games, and their special teams have left something to be desired.  Their special teams index of 97.9 reflects mediocrity on both sides of special teams – a 17.9 percent power play (5-for-28) and an 80.0 percent penalty kill (20-for-25).

If there is a hotter player in the league than Mike Hoffman, the Caps do not want to face him.  Hoffman has nine goals in this last nine game run since Thanksgiving and 13 goals in his last 14 games overall.  He has climbed into fourth overall in goals scored.  It hardly seems to be a fluke.  Hoffman has 36 goals in his last 82 regular season games played, and only ten players in the league have more goals since the start of the 2014-2015 season.  He accomplished this as a remarkably efficient shooter.  Over the past season and a third, Hoffman is shooting to a 15.4 percentage and is shooting 19.8 percent this season.  That latter mark is fifth in the league among players to have recorded at least 50 shots on goal this season.  In three career games against Washington, Hoffman is 0-1-1, even.

The flip side of the scoring in the 4-5-0 run – assists – has been largely led by Erik Karlsson, who is 2-8-10 over that span of games, the assist total tied for the team lead.  Karlsson, as any Caps fan knows, is “Mike Green 2.0,” a defenseman who can, and does put up gaudy offensive numbers.  He currently leads all NHL defensemen in points (34) and assists (27).  He is tied for fifth in goals (7).  Since he joined the Senators to stay in the 2010-2011 season, Karlsson leads all other NHL defensemen in total points, and by a wide margin, 311 to 255 for Dustin Byfuglien (a part time forward) and 252 over Keith Yandle.  At his current points pace, Karlsson would become the first defenseman to finish an 82-game season at better than 1.00 points per game since Green did it in 2009-2010 (76 points in 75 games; minimum: 60 games; Kris Letang had 38 points in 35 games in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season).  Karlsson is 2-14-16, plus-1, in 18 career games against the Caps.

In what might be an unexpected turn, goaltending has been an issue for the Senators.  Perhaps it should not be considered unexpected, though.  Over his last five seasons, including this one, Craig Anderson has alternated very good and not so good save percentages:

• 2011-2012: .914 (63 games)
• 2012-2013: .941 (24 games)
• 2013-2014: .911 (53 games)
• 2014-2015: .923 (35 games)
• 2015-2016: .915 (26 games to date)

Part of his issue might be workload.  He has been the goaltender of record for the last 15 games played by the Senators, over which he has a record of 8-5-2, 2.62, .922, with two shutouts.  That save percentage is actually an improvement over his season start, but it is that 33.5 shots per 60 minutes that is a problem.  It looks as if he will be getting a break soon, though.  Andrew Hammond was recalled form a conditioning assignment in Binghamton in the AHL after being out since November 15^th upon taking a puck to the face mask in practice.  Anderson is 11-6-1, 2.27, .928, with two shutouts in 18 career appearances against Washington.  Hammond, who is expected to get the start in Washington, is 2-0-2 overall this season with a 2.42 goals against average and a .930 save percentage.  He has a win in his only career appearance against Washington, a 4-3 overtime win last April 4th.  Oh, and there is this.  Hammond's NHL record to date is 22-1-4.  That is not a typo.  What is it with goalies whose last names begin with "H?"

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Back to the shots issue.  No team has allowed more shots per game than the Senators (34.0).  Their shot differential is, by far, the worst in the league.  Their minus-6.1 is a full two shots worse than the 29^th-ranked team, the Arizona Coyotes (minus-4.1) and more than three shots worse than the 28^th-ranked teams, the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers (both at minus-2.8).

2.  Only the Winnipeg Jets have allowed the first goal of games as often as the Senators (20).  They do have a 6-9-5 record in such games, but the six wins is as many as the Caps have in almost twice as many games as the Caps faced that predicament (13).

3.  There have been 277 skaters to dress for the Senators in club history, but only two have appeared in more than 1,000 games.  Chris Phillips is one of them, the franchise record holder in games played (1,179).  However, back surgery this past summer has kept him out of the lineup, and it is unlikely that he will play this season.  Among current Ottawa defensemen, only Erik Karlsson has more than 250 games of experience with the club (428), and only Marc Methot has experience comparable to Karlsson (470 games).

4.  If there is a danger zone for the Caps in this game, it is the second period.  Ottawa leads the league in goal differential in the second periods of games (plus-13).  Then again, the Caps are fourth at plus-7.

5.  Senator fans might want to turn away looking at their club’s possession numbers – 29^th in Corsi-for percentage overall (46.1), 29^th in score-adjusted Corsi-for (45.8), and 27^th in close score (46.2; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps are among the more efficient shooting teams in the league with an overall 9.8 shooting percentage, eighth in the league.  Trouble is, they will be facing the top shooting team in the league in Ottawa (10.9 percent).

2.  The Caps have scored power play goals in 15 games this season.  Their record in those games is 14-0-1.  No other team has avoided a loss in regulation time when scoring a power play goal (Montreal is 12-1-3).

3.  On the other hand, the Caps have the second best record (10-2-1) in games when they allow a power play goal.  Only one team has more wins in those situations – Ottawa (11). 

4.  To complete the tour of random special teams facts, Washington is the only team in the league with a perfect record when scoring a power play goal and shutting the opponent out on the power play (6-0-0).  Three other teams have extra-time losses when scoring a power play goal and denying opponents a power play goal – Montreal (8-0-3), Calgary (0-0-2), and the New York Rangers (5-0-2).

5.  Here is an obscure random fact.  The Caps have allowed more than 50 Corsi events (shot attempts) at 5-on-5 in seven games this season.  Three of them came in the Caps’ last six games.  This is not a trend one wants to pursue (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Bobby Ryan

Once upon a time, Bobby Ryan was thought to have the potential to be among the top goal scorers in the NHL.  The second overall pick in the “Sidney Crosby Draft (2005),” Ryan scored 133 goals in 249 games of Canadian juniors, then followed that up with 33 goals in 70 games in the AHL.  He began his NHL career as if he would fulfill that promise, posting more than 30 goals in each of his first four full seasons in the league.  Then came the abbreviated 2012-2013 season.  Ryan, who was in the midst of a five-year/$25.5 million contract with the Anaheim Ducks, finished with just 11 goals in 46 games.  He was traded to Ottawa the following summer for Jakob Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen and Ottawa's 1st round choice in 2014 Entry Draft.  And, it set in motion a slippage in Ryan’s goal scoring overall.  Since those four 30-plus goal seasons, he has 61 goals in 225 games, a 22-goal pace per 82 games.  It hardly seems to merit the seven-year/$50.75 million deal he signed in October 2014 to extend his stay with the Senators.  With nine goals in 31 games so far this season, he is on a pace to finish 24 goals.  Ryan is 5-4-9, minus-5, in 11 career games against Washington.

Washington:  Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen has quietly put together an interesting year on the power play for Washington.  Not generally thought of as a power play force, he does have 69 career power play points, which ranks in a tie for 33^rd among defensemen since his rookie season in 2007-2008.  This season he has five power play points in 53:19 of power play ice time.  On a points-per-minute basis, his efficiency is roughly the same as the number one quarterback on the power play, John Carlson (11 points in 105:12).  Niskanen has never finished with fewer than six power play points in a season; he has five so far this season (1-4-5).  He is 2-1-3 (one of those goals being a power play goal), minus-1, in 15 career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

This game poses an interesting challenge for the Caps.  Ottawa might be an elite team, or at least a much better one, but for their ghastly possession numbers (and other than the disturbance in your seats, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln?).  They do not lack for scoring in a league that does; they do not have a superior penalty kill, but they seem to find ways to overcome that problem.  They do, however, put entirely too much pressure on their goaltenders with shot attempts and shots on goal allowed, both ranked worst in the league. 

If the Caps are to come out of their own possession funk (49.3 in score adjusted Corst-for over their last 18 games; 46.2 over their last six contests), this might be the team to serve as the cure.  If they lose the possession battle to this team, even if they win the game, it will signal a problem that needs to be addressed expeditiously before a slump in the standings plays out.

Capitals 4 – Senators 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Penguins 1

The Washington Capitals gave new Pittsburgh Penguin head coach Mike Sullivan a rude welcome to the NHL on Monday night as the Caps defeated the Penguins, 4-1, at Consol Energy Arena in Pittsburgh.

The Caps scored early, and they scored late, and goalie Braden Holtby did the rest to wrap up the Capitals’ three-game road trip in successful fashion.  With the win, the Caps went to 9-1-1 in their last 11 games.

Nicklas Backstrom got the Caps going just before the four-minute mark on a simple case of a smooth offensive zone entry.  With the Penguins having numbers on defense at their own blue line, T.J. Oshie still managed to carry the puck on the right side over the line and curl off.  Backstrom filled in the middle, and Oshie hit him with a pass in stride.  With the Penguins still backing off, Backstrom stepped up and snapped a shot over goalie Marc-Andre Fleury’s glove and under the crossbar to make it 1-0.

Just over three minutes later the Caps struck again.  Working the puck below the Penguins’ goal line, Jason Chimera and Jay Beagle exchanged passes, Chimera eventually working the puck out and around the corner to Fleury’s left.  He sent the puck across on what looked like a pass to Tom Wilson in the slot.  The puck slid through, though, to John Carlson pinching in on the weak side.  His initial shot was stopped by Fleury, but the puck came back to Carlson.  Without having a defender close on him, Carlson was free to put the rebound back and past Fleury to make it 2-0 just over seven minutes into the game.

Pittsburgh got one back just before the 14-minute mark when they caught the Caps on a sluggish line change.  Phil Kessel carried the puck down an open right wing and as he gained the offensive zone dropped it off for Ben Lovejoy at the point.  Lovejoy fired a slap-pass into the middle where Evgeni Malkin redirected it past Holtby and off the pipe to give the Penguins some life.

It would not be much, though.  The 2-1 score held up for the rest of the first period and through the second.  In the third period, T.J. Oshie took over.  With the clock ticking toward the nine-minute mark, Oshie tried to flip the puck into the Penguin zone, but the attempt was blocked.  Backstrom collected the loose puck just outside the blue line and carried it in, where he slid a pass to Oshie on his right.  Oshie took the puck off the wall and skated down the right wing with defenseman Ian Cole on his hip.  Oshie carried him all the way around the back of the net, and with Fleury unable to get from the left post to the right, Oshie completed the wrap-around to give the Caps a 3-1 lead.

Oshie capped the scoring in the final minute when, with Malkin off on a tripping call joining Olli Maatta, who was in the penalty box on a hooking penalty, he one-timed a pass from Backstrom through the slot past Fleury’s blocker.  Fleury could only whack his stick on the end boards in frustration as the Caps skated off with a 4-1 win.

Other stuff…

--  Nice view…

-- Oshie had his second two-goal game in his last six contests.  He became the third Capital to reach the ten-goal mark this season.  Nicklas Backstrom also joined the ten-goal club earlier in the game, joining Alex Ovechkin (14) as Caps with ten or more.

-- John Carlson had a two-point game (1-1-2), extending a nice little run for him.  He has points in eight of his last 11 games (2-9-11) and is now tied for fourth in scoring among defensemen (5-18-23) with Rasmus Ristolainen of Buffalo and San Jose’s Brent Burns.

-- The 79 combined shots recorded by the teams – 45 for Pittsburgh and 34 for the Caps – are the most in any game played thus far by the Caps this season.  The 45 shots allowed was the first time this season Washington allowed more than 40 shots on goal.

-- At an individual level, the shooting was odd for both teams.  John Carlson led the Caps with eight shots on goal, a personal high this season, tying a career high he set twice before.  On the other side, Matt Cullen was the only Penguin not to record a shot on goal.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov skated just 13:41 in this game.  That is a season low in ice time for the center.  He also lost 12 of 16 faceoffs, including eight of ten in the defensive zone.

-- Nate Schmidt continues to do well even when not getting on the scoreboard himself.  In just over 20 minutes of ice time he had six shot attempts (three on goal) and seven blocked shots to lead both teams.

-- The win was the Caps’ tenth on the road this season.  They joined the Boston Bruins as the only clubs in the Eastern Conference with ten road wins.

-- Braden Holtby just keeps rolling along.  This was his seventh straight game allowing two or fewer goals.  In his last 15 appearances he is 13-1-1, 1.64, .945.

-- The rivals were held off the scoreboard in this one.  Neither Alex Ovechkin nor Sidney Crosby recorded a point and fired blanks on nine combined shots on goal, but Ovechkin was a plus-1 (plus-13 for the season), while Crosby finished minus-1 (now a minus-7, although it was his first “minus” game in his last seven games).

In the end…

It is never bad beating Pittsburgh.  But really, 45 shots on goal?  A total of 79 shot attempts allowed?   This was the second straight game in which Washington’s Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall was below 40 percent, and it was their worst of the season (36.6).  They barely escaped their worst score-adjusted Corsi-for of the season.  It was another case of lots of Holtby and taking advantage of opportunities (and in this case, a weak and depleted defense).  The Caps sit atop the Eastern Conference, but not in a way that suggests a long term stay there.  Still…

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 29: Capitals at Penguins, December 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their three-game road trip on Monday night with their second meeting of the season against the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Caps, who lost the first meeting of the clubs by a 3-1 margin at Verizon Center on October 28^th, visit Consol Energy Arena in the Steel City for the first time this season.

The Capitals come into this contest with the best ten-game record in the league at 8-1-1 over their last ten contests.  And to the point of this contest, the Caps will visit Pittsburgh tied with the Montreal Canadiens for the second most standings points earned on the road so far this season (19 points).

On the other side of the contest, the Penguins will debut Mike Sullivan as their new head coach.  Mike Johnston was relieved of his head coaching duties on Saturday along with assistant Gary Agnew.   Sullivan has 170 games of regular season coaching experience at the NHL level with the Boston Bruins (70-56-23 with 15 ties) and the Vancouver Canucks (2-4-0).  He was 18-5-0 with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL before his promotion.

Sullivan inherits a challenge and an enigma.  The Penguins came into this season with the highest of expectations following a summer in which they obtained Phil Kessel from the Toronto Maple Leafs in one of the more complicated deals in recent NHL history.  The thinking was that Kessel, as natural a goal scorer as there is in the NHL (not named “Ovechkin” or “Stamkos”), paired with Sidney Crosby, the premier playmaker of his generation, would create an offensive juggernaut that nothing outside of the 101^st Airborne Division of the U.S. Army would be able to neutralize.

It has not happened.  Crosby, Kessel, and Evgeni Malkin, who among them averaged 0.43 goals per game over the course of their careers before this season, averaged ust 0.33 goals per game among them through 28 games before the firing of Johnston.  Crosby had been especially mysterious in his performance.  In ten seasons before this one he never averaged less than 1.09 points per game (last season, which was still good enough to lead the league).  Through 28 games this season he has just 19 points in 28 games (0.68 points per game), his point total tied for 79^th in the league (through Saturday’s games).  It is not a bad group with which he finds himself tied, a group that includes Corey Perry, Filip Forsberg, and Thomas Vanek, among others, but it is not a neighborhood with which he is too familiar over the course of his career.  Crosby is 18-33-51, plus-2, in 34 career games against Washington.

Kessel simply has not been the difference maker he was expected to be when he was obtained last summer.  His nine goals have come in eight games, and the Penguins have a record of 5-3-0 in those contests.  Of note with regard to this contest, Kessel is 2-6-8, minus-1, in 14 home games this season and his long goal in a win came back on October 20^th against the Florida Panthers.  He has only two points (both goals, both coming in a 5-1 win over the San Jose Sharks on December 1^st) in his last seven games.  Kessel is 7-14-21, minus-2, in 31 career games against the Capitals.

Malkin is the only one of the trio within a time zone of his expected level of play to date.  He is on a pace to finish the season with 38 goals, which if achieved would be his third-highest goal total in ten seasons.  He is also on a pace to finish with 76 points , which would be his highest point total since winning the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top scorer with 109 points in 2011-2012.  With Malkin, the issue is his ability to stay in the lineup.  He has not yet missed a game this season, but he has not played an 82-game season since 2008-2009, and he missed 52 games over the last three seasons entering this one.  He can score points in bunches – he had a stretch of seven games  at the end of November and starting December in which he had four multi-point games and went 8-5-13 – but he can go absent for stretches, too.  He has one point and is a minus-5 over his last four games.  Malkin is 9-34-43, plus-2, in 30 career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Kris Letang and Olli Maatta are the two defensemen expected to carry the mail in the offensive end for the Penguins.  They are one-two, respectively, in points from the blue line this season.  They have also missed nine games between them this season.  Over the last season-plus Maatta has missed 68 of 110 games.  Letang has missed 139 of 319 games over the last four-plus seasons.  Maatta is expected to play in this contest, while Letang is expected to miss up to two weeks with an upper-body injury.

2.  Special teams success could be an important factor in this game for the Caps. Pittsburgh is 9-2-2 in games in which they recorded one or more power play goals, 6-8-1 in games in which they were shut out with the man advantage.  On the other side, the Penguins are 10-3-2 in games in which their penalty killers were perfect, 5-7-1 when they were not.   The Penguins have not won a game in regulation this season when they were blanked on the power play and gave up at least one to the opposition (1-6-0, the win coming in a Gimmick).

3.  Total shots allowed do not seem to be much of a factor in Penguin wins and losses.  When allowing 30 or more shots they are 8-5-3, and they are 7-5-0 when allowing fewer than 30 shots.   Shots taken is another matter.  Pittsburgh is 9-4-2 when recording 30 or more shots, 6-6-1 when they do not.

4.  The Penguins have not won consecutive games in almost a month (November 17^th against Minnesota and November 19^th against Colorado).  Since then they are 3-3-3.  Over those nine games, Malkin (6-3-0) and Crosby (3-6-9) lead the team in points, so they might be emerging from their slumber.  The surprise there is that it is Chris Kunitz who leads the club in assists over those nine games (seven).

5.  For their considerable offensive talent, Pittsburgh has struggled with possession this season.  They rank 22^nd in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (48.4).  They are not much better in other variations of the metric – 20^th in score-adjusted Corsi (48.3) and 19^th in close score situations (48.3; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Five of the last seven  Capitals wins in this series have come via shutout:

• February 6, 2011: 3-0, Michal Neuvirth (22 saves at Washington)
• February 21, 2011: 1-0, Michal Neuvirth (39 saves at Pittsburgh)
• January 11, 2012: 1-0, Tomas Vokoun (30 saves at Washington)
• December 27, 2014: 3-0, Braden Holtby (31 saves at Pittsburgh)
• January 28, 2015: 4-0, Braden Holtby (27 saves at Washington)

2.  Washington leads the league in winning percentage when scoring first in games (.933/14-1-0).  They are fourth in winning percentage when opponents score first (.462/6-5-2).

3.  Only two teams have allowed fewer power play goals on the road than the Capitals (7).  Pittsburgh and the Anaheim Ducks have allowed six power play goals apiece on the road.

4.  The multi-goal game watch continues for Alex Ovechkin.  He has one goal in 14 games this season, over which the Caps have an 11-3-0 record.  What might be more surprising is the 9-3-2 record the Caps have in games in which he does not score a goal (including a loss in the only game he missed this season).

5.  The Caps might have the best ten-game record in the league at the moment (8-1-1), but they are not doing it the “right” way.  Their possession numbers continue to lag – 47.0 percent Corsi-for overall, 48.9 in score-adjusted Corsi-for, and 46.9 in close score situations (war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh:  Marc-Andre Fleury

Marc-Andre Fleury has had two different seasons in goal for the Penguins thus far.  In the first, covering his first 11 appearances, he went 7-4-0, 1.74, .939, with two shutouts.  Then, beginning with a four-goals-allowed performance against Calgary on November 7^th, he has gone 6-5-2, 2.61, .919 over his last 13 appearances.  In those first 11 appearances he allowed more than two goals just three times.  He has done so seven times in his last 13 appearances.  He does, however, seem to be coming out of that funk.  Fleury allowed two goals in each of his last three appearances (with just a 1-1-1 record), stopping 85 of 91 shots (.934 save percentage).  Fleury is 18-10-2, 2.45, .917, with three shutouts in 31 career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Nate Schmidt

Nate Schmidt logged his first fight in the NHL in the Caps’ 2-1 win over Tampa Bay on Saturday.   More important, he has been logging heavy minutes since Brooks Orpik went down to an injury November 10^th.  In 14 games since then, Schmidt averaged a shade over 20 minutes a game.  Compare that to last season when Schmidt averaged 13:53 over 39 games.  This game could be a special challenge for Schmidt give the depth of skill the Penguins have at forward.   In those 14 games since Orpik went down, Schmidt has maintained a ability to log good possession numbers (50.6 percent Corsi-for overall, 51.9 percent in score-adjusted Corsi-for).  He has grown into his expanded responsibilities.  He has appeared only once against the Penguins without recording a point.

In the end…

This game provides a trifecta of challenges for the Caps.  First, Washington is likely to get the Penguins’ undivided attention in a way perhaps the Arizona Coyotes, for example, might not.  The effort should be there for the home team.   Then there is the fact that this is the last road game of the three-game road trip, coming as it does after the dads and mentors have gone their separate ways.  The Caps will have to maintain their focus.  Then there is the wild-card of the new coach taking over in his first game with the new club.  That might inspire his players to impress. 

Whatever the challenges, though, the Caps have played with what appears as a less emotional, more clinical consistency of play.  They have not allowed distractions to be distractions.  There is little reason to think that will change in this game.

Capitals 3 – Penguins 1

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 9

For the Washington Capitals, Week 9 looked good from the perspective of wins and losses, but it had an odd flavor about it, like milk that is about to turn bad.  It’s still palatable, but it really needs to be replaced by something fresher, something better.

Record: 2-1-0

Nine weeks are in the books, and the Caps have eight winning weeks, two four-week winning streaks sandwiched around a .500 week.  And finally, after relentless pursuit of the Montreal Canadiens, the Caps are poised to overtake the Montreal Canadiens for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.   At the end of Week 4 the Caps found themselves seven points behind the Canadiens, who have occupied the top spot in the East all season to date.  The Caps whittled that to five points in Week 5 and maintained that distance in Week 6.  It was down to four points after Week 7, then three points after Week 8.  Now, it is down to one point, and the Capitals have three games in hand on Montreal.  As it is, only the Dallas Stars have earned more standings points per game to date (1.53) than the Caps (1.50) among the league’s 30 teams.

Offense:  1.67/game (season: 2.96 /game; rank: 5th)

It was a weak week in the offensive end of the ice.  While the Caps won both games in which they scored more than one goal, they barely did it, scoring two against Detroit in a 3-2 Gimmick win and two in a 2-1 win over Tampa Bay to close the week.  It is part of what matches the Caps worst goal-scoring drought of the season – six goals in their last four games (six goals over Games 8-11 in late October and early November). 

Part of the problem was getting shots on goal.  The Caps managed 81 shots on goal for the week, but almost half – 40 of them – came in the 3-2 Gimmick win over Detroit to open the week.  Breaking it down another way does not make it look any better.  The Caps scored two goals on their first 36 shots (5.6 percent) in the win over the Red Wings, but then went 3-for-45 (6.7 percent) over the rest of that win and the two games that followed.

Alex Ovechkin was the only Capital to record more than one goal in Week 9 (two).  He did it on 14 shots, but was held to one shot against Tampa Bay, just the second time this season he was held to one shot (in a 3-2 win At Montreal on November 3^rd).  Justin Williams had a goal eight shots, Jay Beagle had one on two shots, and Evgeny Kuznetsov had a goal on eight shots.  That’s five goals on 32 shots (15.6 percent), but the rest of the club went 0-for-49.

Defense: 2.33/game (season: 2.21 /game; rank:3rd)

The Caps came into Week 9 in the unusual position (for this season) of having allowed more than 30 shots on goal in four consecutive games and six of eight after having done it only once in their first 17 games.  The team returned to a sense of normalcy in the first two games of the week, giving up just 23 shots to the Red Wings to open the week and just 26 in the 4-1 loss to Florida in the middle game of the week.

It was a mixed week, though.  The Caps gave up 36 shots on goal to Tampa Bay to end the week, and there were broader issues with regard to shot attempts.  The 47 shot attempts at 5-on-5 recorded by Detroit in the first game of the week and the 62 (yes…62) shot attempts at 5-on-5 against Tampa Bay are the eighth-highest and top number of shot attempts allowed, respectively, so far this season at 5-on-5.  It made for a brutal week in the Caps’ underlying numbers.  They managed a Corsi-for percentage of just 39.2 overall.  The score-adjusted (44.9) and close score (44.0) numbers were somewhat better, but it did not salvage the week in that area (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 1.99 /.929 (season: 2.06 / .924 / 1 shutout)

It was a good week overall, but more specifically, Braden Holtby continued putting up very good, bordering on spectacular numbers.  Holtby appeared in two games in Week 9, stopping 56 of 59 shots (.949 save percentage) and posting a 1.44 goals against average.  He finished the week at or near the top in a number of categories: wins (18/1^st), goals against average (1.91/1^st), save percentage (.930/4^th), even strength save percentage (.940/5^th among goalies appearing in at least 15 games).  And, he was remarkable consistent, period to period.  He was 18-for-19 in the first periods of his two games (.947 save percentage), 16-for-17 in the second periods (.941), and 20-for-21 in the third periods (.952).

Philipp Grubauer got the call for the middle game of the week in the 4-1 loss to Florida.  He played in a bit of bad luck in that game, giving up a goal that was deflected out of mid-air, another on a 2-on-1 break, and another on a power-play one-timer.  On the other hand, it was the fourth time in five appearances he has allowed three or more goals and the third time in five games he finished with a save percentage under .900.

Power Play: 1-for-12 / 8.3 percent (season: 23.3 percent; rank: 3rd)

Week 9 was the worst week of the season of any win which the Caps had 10 or more power play opportunities.  In fact it was the worst such week for the Caps since Week 21 last season, when they also went 1-for-12.  It was not for lack of efficiency in one respect.  The Caps recorded 22 shots in 18:51 of power play ice time (1.17 shots per minute).  It was the 1-for-22 shooting (4.5 percent) that was the problem, much as shooting was for the week as a whole.

It was not even the “who” getting the shots that was the problem.  Alex Ovechkin had almost a third of the shots (seven), connecting once for the only man advantage goal of the week.  There was balance among the other seven skaters to record power play shots on goal, only two of them finishing with as many as three (Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov).  Perhaps it was the lack of defensemen getting pucks to the net; John Carlson (2) and Matt Niskanen (1) accounted for only three of the shots on goal.  Whatever it was, it was another dimension to what was a barren shooting week for the Capitals.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-11 / 81.8 percent (season: 83.5 percent; rank: 8th)

On the other side of special teams, the penalty killers were good, not great in Week 9.  First, the good.  The Caps held opponents to 11 shots in 17:32 of shorthanded ice time (0.63 shots per minute), including a full two-minute 4-on-3 power play in the 3-2 trick shot win over Detroit in the opening game of the week (the only shorthanded situation they faced in that game).

On the other hand, there were the 11 shorthanded situations the Caps faced.  It was the first time since Week 2 that they faced more than ten such situations in a week.  It was a bit uncharacteristic for a club that still managed to finish the week tied for the fourth-fewest number of shorthanded situations faced this season (79, with Calgary).

There was also the “who” as far as the goals scored is concerned.  Florida and Tampa Bay finished the week with the 12^th and 22^nd ranked power plays, respectively.  Even given the fact that the goals allowed were on the road, the Caps did not allow power play goals to elite power plays.

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 4-5 / minus-1 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.33 ; rank: T-2nd)

The 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning saved the week for the Caps as far as even strength goal scoring is concerned.  Going into that game the Caps had been outscored, 5-2, at evens.  But even though the Caps outscored the Lighting, 2-0, at even strength to get to a minus-1 for the week, they were steamrolled on shots, Tampa Bay recording 31 shots on goal at even strength to 16 for the Caps.  And no, that was not – or certainly not entirely – a case of score effects.  The Caps were outshot 11-6 at evens in the first period, held to nine apiece in the second, before being outshot 11-1 at even strength in the third period.

Faceoffs: 92-for-189 / 48.7 percent (season: 50.3% / rank: 11th)

It was not a good week for the Capitals in the faceoff circle.  They were under 50 percent for the week, under 50 percent in two of the three games, and under 50 percent in two of the three zones overall for the week.  It was another case of two different ends and two different outcomes in Week 9.  In the offensive end of the ice the Caps struggled with an overall winning percentage of 41.3 percent (26-for-63).  It was just the opposite in the defensive zone where Washington finished with a 55.7 percent mark (39-for-70).

The Caps managed their best against the 20^th-ranked Detroit Red Wings, winning 55.2 percent of their draws in the first game of the week.  It does not explain how the Caps could finish with a 45.9 percent winning percentage against the 21^st-ranked Florida Panthers.

Individually, those who took more than ten draws by and large struggled, too.  Nicklas Backstrom (49.3 percent), Evgeny Kuznetsov (35.4), and Michael Latta (46.2) finished under 50 percent.  Only Jay Beagle (66.7 percent) had his head above water for the week.  And here is a weird stat.  Only one team in the league has won fewer even strength faceoffs than the Caps (New Jersey).  And, only two teams have lost fewer (San Jose and Carolina).

Goals by Period:

The best to be said as far as the distribution of goals by period was that they were balanced among the three period.  The other side of it is that the Caps were outscored in the second and third periods, by one goal in each.  The third period was a bit disturbing on the goals allowed side.  Three goals scored in the three games (two by Florida – one an empty netter – and one against Tampa Bay) represented 15 percent of the total the club allowed over their first 25 games of the season (20).  It was a case of not quite locking down the last 20 minutes in a way the team had done in those first 25 games.  As it is, the Caps are still eighth in the league in third period goals allowed.  And, the Caps are the only club in the league ranking in the top ten in goals allowed in each of the three regulation periods.

In the end…

The Caps passed the one-third mark of the season in Week 9.  With 20 wins in 28 games they matched their fastest-to-20 club record, set in 1991-1992 (20-8-0).  It has not been pretty lately, though.  The Caps’ possession numbers are poor compared to their season start, they have been slipping in the little things like faceoffs, and their scoring offense has dried up.  They are depending entirely too much on goalie Braden Holtby, and while he certainly shows no signs of slipping on his part, it would be nice if starting in Week 10 for others to pick up their game and shoulder more of the burden.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-0, 1.44, .949)
• Second Star: John Carlson (0-2-2, even, 54.0 score-adjusted Corsi-for percentage).
• Third Star: Jay Beagle (1-0-1, even, 24-for-36 on faceoffs, one bloody nose)

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Lightning 1

The Washington Capitals escaped Florida with a split on their fathers and mentors trip as they defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning, 2-1, at Amalie Arena in Tampa on Saturday night.  “Escaped” might be too kind a term.

The Capitals got off on the right foot in the first period.  Just over two minutes into the contest, Stanislav Galiev intercepted a pass up the wall by Alex Killorn in the Tampa Bay zone and circled from out of the corner to the right of Lightning goalie Ben Bishop.  Galiev saw an opening from the edge of the faceoff circle and fired the puck at the net.  The puck looked headed wide on the short side, but it rode up on Jay Beagle at the side of the net and hit him in the face.  The puck dropped to Beagle’s feet and from below the goal line he batted the puck off of Bishop’s backside and into the net to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 2:09 into the game.

That goal was the only scoring for the next 31 minutes.  Just after the 11-minute mark of the second period, Evgeny Kuznetsov worked some magic.  There was a lot that went on as the play unfolded.  It started with John Carlson from between the hash marks firing a puck that went wide to Bishop’s right and skittered around the corner.  Andrej Sustr tried to move the puck off the wall to the middle, but the pass was picked off by Carlson, who turned and directed another attempt at the Lightning net.  And then something very odd happened. 

Ryan Callahan blocked Carlson’s shot, and the puck bounced to Kuznetsov, who grabbed it and started circling toward the net.  For some odd reason, Callahan laid out, perhaps trying to deny a cross-ice pass (or maybe he just fell), and then Anton Stralman spun from his knees (what he was doing there was a bit of a mystery) and tried to swipe the puck off Kuznetsov’s stick as he was going by.  It looked as if Callahan and Stralman, laid out on the ice end-to-end, were trying to create some sort of human chain gang.

While this was going on, Kuznetsov curled to the net as if he was going to try to loop around and come out the other side for a shot.  Bishop might have been thinking the same thing, because he looked to cheat just a touch off the near post.  It was enough for Kuznetsov to pull the puck to his forehand just as he was crossing below the goal line, bring the puck back across the ling, and tuck it just inside the post and gently over the goal line to give the Caps a 2-0 lead that they would carry into the third period.

The 2-0 lead proved to be, if not the most dangerous lead in hockey, then the most treacherous.  Tampa Bay made things interesting in the third period when, on their third power play of the game, Nikita Kucherov one-timed a puck past goalie Braden Holtby to cut the Caps’ lead in half.

That would be all the scoring for either team, though, as Holtby stood tall and ensured the back of his net would be left undisturbed for the remainder of the contest, the Caps skating off with a 2-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- 31-0-4.  That is the Caps’ record in the last 35 games in which Jay Beagle recorded a point.  Beegsy is happy…

-- Reasonable people will take winning and playing poorly over playing well and losing 100 times out of 100.  But the Caps were demolished in possession numbers in this game.  For the game, Tampa Bay out-attempted the Caps by a 62-37 margin at 5-on-5.  That’s a 37.4 Corsi-for percentage.  For the uninitiated in Corsi, that’s not good.  Even slathering on some score-adjusted sauce doesn’t make it much more palatable (41.4).  And while the third period was really bad (23-7 shot attempt advantage for the Lightning), it was not as if it was a case of good numbers in the first period (20-13, Lightning) or the second period (19-17, Lightning) being replaced by prevent defense (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

-  Tampa Bay came into this game among the leaders in games in which they allowed opponents two or fewer goals (fifth in the league).  They also happened to be among the leaders in games in which they scored two or fewer goals (fourth).  They added to their totals on both sides of the ledger.  It was the tenth game this season for the Lighting in which both they and their opponents scored two or fewer goals.

-- Speaking of two or fewer goals, the two goals scored by the Caps makes it nine times in their last 15 games that they have been held to two or fewer in the hockey portion of the contest.

-- The Capitals are now 8-0-0 following losses, outscoring opponents by a 28-12 margin. 

-- This comeback from a loss in the previous game went against type in one respect.  Before tonight, the Caps faced four shorthanded situations in a game following a loss just once in seven occurrences (the killed three of four in a 5-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers on November 12^th).  They faced four such situations in this game, also killing three of four.

-- Of the four minor penalties leading to Tampa Bay power plays, three were the result of tripping calls.  Matt Niskanen was caught twice cashing in frequent flyer miles for a trip.

-- How many games do the Caps win when Alex Ovechkin records just one shot on goal.  Well, this would make it two this year.  The other was in a 3-2 win in Montreal against the Canadiens on December 3^rd.  And how many times has Alex Ovechkin been held to one shot on goal this season?  …two.

-- Braden Holtby is a lousy guest.  He comes into your place, drinks all your beer, eats all your snacks, leaves crumbs in the seat cushions.  And wins games, too.  With this performance, Holtby’s road record is now 7-2-1, 1.99, .929.  Only once in ten road games has he allowed more than two goals, a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers on November 3^rd.

-- Andre Burakovsky had a difficult night.  He banged a shot off the crossbar and a pipe in the first period, then he got just two shifts in the third period (none in the last 8:43).  More hard lessons to be learned.

In the end…

The Capitals are relying a bit too much on their goaltender to bail them out of games.  Philipp Grubauer is not yet polished enough at this level to do it regularly, and he was unable to steal a win against the Florida Panthers when the Caps’ offense (and defense for that matter) wasn’t working well.  Braden Holtby is sufficiently accomplished to steal games, but it is not something on which the Caps will want to depend so much over the course of a long season with 54 games yet to play in the regular season.  The skaters have to do more in the other end – not just scoring, which certainly would be welcome, but in tilting the ice to the offensive end with better possession numbers.

Still, this is a team that plays with a consistency of performance (scoring, wins and losses) that is rather remarkable as deep into the season as they are.  By this time last season, through 28 games, the Caps had already recorded four instances of two or more consecutive losses, including a five-game losing streak.  This is a team that is now 52-22-8 over its last 82 games.  The Capitals will be tested, though, as they head to Pittsburgh for the last contest of the three-game road trip and the Penguins under their new head coach.  If this season’s history is a guide, they will hardly be fazed.