The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 19: Blues at Capitals, November 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take the ice on Wednesday night in their annual Thanksgiving Eve game, this year hosting the St. Louis Blues at Verizon Center.  The Caps come into this game on a bumpy road, going 3-3-1 in their last seven games.  On the other hand, the Blues might be righting themselves after a rocky start.  After going 7-6-3 in their first 16 games, the Blues arrive at Verizon Center winners in three straight.

The wake-up call for the Blues might have been an 8-4 pasting they took at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets in Columbus on November 12^th.  It was after that game that the Blues started their three-game winning streak. And, they have done it with defense and goaltending.   Jake Allen authored all three of the wins in goal for St. Louis, allowing just four goals on 86 shots overall (.953 save percentage).  His effort has allowed him to jump up to 17^th among 39 goaltenders with at least 400 minutes played in goals against average (2.31) and 21^st in save percentage (.910) after going 2.63/.896 in his first 12 appearances this season.  Allen assumed a larger work load in each of his first three seasons in the NHL, going from 15 appearances in 2012-2013 to 37 in 2014-2015 to 44 appearances last season.  It inspired enough confidence for the team to trade Brian Elliott – last season’s save percentage leader – to Calgary this past June.  Allen has one career appearance against the Caps, a 32-save shutout in a 4-0 win at Verizon Center last March 26^th.

Vladimir Tarasenko has been a model of consistency in his offensive production for St. Louis in the first quarter of the season.  In 19 games, he has 19 points and has been held off the score sheet only six times in those 19 games.  He has points in seven of his last eight games, over which he is 3-7-10, plus-2.  If there is an odd fact about his season so far, it is that he had a hand in all four goals (goal, three assists) in the 8-4 loss to Columbus that shocked the Blues into their current three-game winning streak.  And, all four points came on power plays.  He is tied for fourth in the league in power play points (2-7-9).  Tarasenko is one of the most prolific goal scorers in the league.  Since becoming a full-time player in 2012-2013, he is tenth in the league in total goals scored (105).  In five career games against Washington, he is 3-1-4, plus-5.

In a league where the attention on defensemen focus on players such as Shea Weber, P.K. Subban, Erik Karlsson, and Drew Doughty, there is Kevin Shattenkirk, the “Energizer Bunny” of defensemen.  Take away the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season and his point totals are borderline bizarre – 43 in 2010-2012, flowed by seasons of 43, 45 (after the lockout season), 44, and 44 last season.  With 14 points in 19 games so far this season (4-10-14), he is on a pace (60 points) to shatter his career best.  He is something of a power play specialist, too.  Since arriving in the NHL in 2010-2011, Shattenkirk is tied for sixth with San Jose’s Brent Burns in total power play goals scored (30).  In nine career games against the Caps, he is 1-4-5, plus-5.

1.  Three is the key number for the Blues.  When they score three of more goals, they win.  This can be said generally for most NHL teams (NHL teams are 238-30-22 in such games though Monday’s contests), but the Blues are 8-1-0 in such games, the only loss being the 8-4 misfortune against Columbus.  They are 2-5-2 in games in which they score two or fewer goals.

2.  Only five teams have scored fewer 5-on-5 goals through Monday’s games than the Blues (27) – New Jersey Devils, Vancouver Canucks, Ottawa Senators, Colorado Avalanche, and Buffalo Sabres.  Only the Devils hold a playoff eligible spot among those teams, the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.

3.  On the other hand, the Blues are one of just three teams with two 5-on-3 power play goals this season (Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins being the others).  They also have the fifth-most 5-on-6 goals (3).

4.  If you are going to get the Blues (or give the Blues the blues, or…never mind), it  will be in the second period.  With 23 goals allowed, only two teams have allowed more scores in the middle frame – Winnipeg Jets (28) and Dallas Stars (24).

5.  St. Louis is the top possession team in the league as measured by 5-on-5 Corsi-for (54.13 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  They do it, as many Ken Hitchcock-coached teams do, by denying shot opportunities.  St. Louis’ shots attempts allowed per 60 minutes is the lowest in the league, the only team to allow fewer than 50 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes (48.48).

1.  On that three-goal thing, the Caps are 9-0-0 when scoring three or more goals.  But here is an odd thing about scoring two goals. Only four teams have scored two or more goals less often than the Caps (13 times, 10-2-1) – Buffalo (10), Ottawa (10), Colorado (11), and the Blues (11).

2.  For whatever reason, and there might be some bigger issues going on,  Alex Ovechkin’s shots are down significantly.  His 4.17 shots per game is his lowest since the 2011-2012 season, one in which he recorded “only” 38 goals in 78 games on 303 shots (he averages 5.02 shots per game over his career).  This is despite his efficiency (12.0 shooting percentage) is not far off his career mark (12.4 percent).

3.  No team has allowed fewer 5-on-5 goals so far this season than the Caps (22).

4.  Fifteen times in 18 games, the Caps have scored first (10-3-2).  Only Montreal has done it as often (13-1-1) in 19 games.

5.  The Caps are seventh overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.97 percent) but tenth overall on home ice (52.48 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Jay Bouwmeester

Defenseman Jay Bouwmeester played in his 1,000^th NHL game against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on November 1^st, one of 17 active players hitting that milestone and one of 102 defensemen to reach the 1,000 game mark in NHL history.  He is among the most durable and consistent defensemen of this era.   In 12 full 82-game seasons prior to this one, Bouwmeester appeared in all of his team’s games nine times and hasn’t appeared in fewer than 72 games in a full season since his sophomore season in 2003-2004, when he appeared in 61 games.  While he has never quite lived up to the offensive promise his third-overall selection in the 2002 entry draft might have suggested, he has become a foundation player in his own end, and his consistency and durability have allowed clubs a certain comfort that he would be there on a night-t0-night basis, freeing them up to concentrate on other areas.  If there is a concern at this point in his career, it is in his offense, which has dropped significantly since his first full year in St. Louis (2013-2014: 4-33-37, plus-26). In his last three seasons, including this one, spanning 163 games through Monday, he is 6-29-35, minus-1.  Bouwmeester is 6-15-21, minus-4, in 46 career games against the Capitals.

Washington:  Zach Sanford

After 18 games, Zach Sanford is the only forward appearing in more than one game this season not to record a goal.  When he does, it will be his first in the NHL.  Part of the situation is opportunity.  Skating just 10:24 per game in 16 games, he does not get a lot of minutes, and what he does get are generally fourth line minutes, almost all of them (all but 5:26 of 166:26 in total ice time) at even strength.  Those situations do not afford him much in the way of shooting opportunities, reflected in his recording 13 shots in 16 games.  He has shown a versatility so far, getting most of his minutes as a winger but filling in at center when Lars Eller went down to injury.  When he has had better linemates, he has not been a liability, at least in terms of possession.  For example, in 40-plus minutes skating with Eller and Justin Williams at 5-on-5, the line has a 56.34 Corsi-for at fives (numbers from Corsica. Hockey).  He shows signs of being the product of a fine program in college (Boston College), with the need to develop a stronger foundation of experience before Caps fans see what his potential really is.  This will be his first appearance against St. Louis.

In the end…

The Caps are in a rut, treading water over their last seven games.  Except for their seven-goal explosion against Pittsburgh, they are having trouble scoring, three times in seven games scoring a single goal, twice scoring only two goals in regulation, and getting shut out once.  That they recorded standings points in three of those six games (a regulation win, an overtime win, and an overtime loss) is a reflection of just how well their goaltenders are playing and how well the Caps are tending to business in their own end.  But that kind of play places a strain on goalies and defenders, and provides a slim margin for success.   St. Louis, even if they are coming to Washington to play the back half of a back-to-back set of games (they will be in Boston to face the Bruins on Tuesday night), will provide quite a challenge to reversing that trend.

Capitals 3 – Blues 2

A NO-Point Afternoon -- Game 18: Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - Washington Capitals 2

In the first period of yesterday’s contest between the Washington Capitals and the Columbus Blue Jackets, It all looked as if it would be a blowout.  In the first ten minutes, the Caps had scored on their first shot on goal, out-shot the Blue Jackets, 7-5, and out-attempted them 16-10.  The Caps were tilting the ice toward the Columbus end on a pace to record nearly 100 shot attempts.  But the Caps could not extend their advantage, and as often happens in such games when early pressure does not turn into early goals, the Blue Jackets righted themselves and eventually scored goals in the first and last minutes of the third period to escape Washington with a 3-2 win to piggy-back on last Tuesday’s 2-1 win over the Caps in overtime.

Nicklas Backstrom scored on Washington’s first shot of the game when he flagged down Jack Johnson’s attempt to clear the puck up the left wing wall out of the Columbus zone.  Controlling the puck inside the Blue Jacket blue line, Backstrom glided down the wall and sent a harmless looking shot at the Columbus net.  The puck his Johnson’s stick and took enough pace off the puck to handcuff goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, the puck going between his pads to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 3:11 into the game.

The Caps could not increase that lead, despite applying considerable pressure on the Blue Jackets following the Backstrom goal, and the teams went to the first intermission with the Caps holding the one-goal lead.  Columbus tied it six minutes into the second period when, on a power play, NickFoligno’s attempted pas through the blue paint hit John Carlson’s skate and ricocheted into the net past goalie Braden Holtby to tie the game.

Washington regained the lead four minutes later on their own power play.  Backstrom was orchestrating things from the right wing wall and tried to find a passing lane to Alex Ovechkin on the opposite side.  After inching up and down the right wing wall, he sent a pass across that was muffled by Matt Calvert’s stick, but not enough to keep the puck from reaching Ovechkin.  He still managed to one-time the puck past Bobrovsky to put the Caps back in front, 2-1, at the 10:31 mark.

The third period was owned by the Blue Jackets, early and late.  Brandon Dubinsky scored just 14 seconds into the period, taking advantage of another puck off a skate.  A centering pass from Brandon Saad from the Olympia corner wound up in the skated of Cam Atkinson and bounced to Brandon Dubinsky, who curled around Holtby and tucked the puck past his left pad to tie the game.

It remained that way until the last minute of regulation.  With Backstrom in the penalty box for (allegedly) high-sticking Foligno, Columbus broke down the Caps defense smartly, after Tom Wilson could not get the puck up and out of the zone along the wall.  Zach Werenski kept the puck in at the left point and fed Sam Gagner in the middle.  Gagner dished the puck to Foligno who spooned it across the low slot to Alexander Wennberg all alone on the right side.  Wennberg had nothing but net to shoot out, and he did not fail, scoring the game-winner with 53.6 seconds left to give the Blue Jackets the win.

Other stuff…

-- Nicklas Backstrom insisted he did not touch Nick Foligno to draw the penalty that led to the game-winning goal.  “I didn’t touch him.  It was really weird I got a penalty there.”  Barry Trotz remarked that Foligno’s Academy Award-worthy effort to draw the penalty was “a little bit disrespectful to the game.”  Even Dale Hunter might be shaking his head at that one.

-- This game broke a five-game streak in which Braden Holtby allowed fewer than three goals.  As it is, he has allowed more than three goals only once in 14 appearances.

-- The two power play goals scored by Columbus was the first time this season the Caps allowed more than one power play goal in a game.  There are now just three teams in the league that have not yet allowed two or more power play goals in a game (Carolina, San Jose, and the New York Rangers).

-- The power play goal by Washington was just the fifth 5-on-4 goal scored by the Caps this season, pulling them into a tie for 29^th (last) in the league with Ottawa.

-- The Caps had 21 shots on goal, tying a season low.  The concern about that is that the Caps set that season low just eight days previously, in a 5-1 loss to Carolina.

--  Of those 21 shots on goal, Alex Ovechkin had five of them.  As a group, the remade Capitals forward group had 19 shots on goal (Lars Eller and T.J. Oshie out with injuries).  The defense had only two shots on goal (Matt Niskanen and John Carlson).

-- Backstrom had his fourth multi-point game of the season, tying him for 13^th in the league in that number.  Three of the four games have come on home ice.

-- Andre Burakovsky had a strange line in the score sheet.  And by “strange,” we don’t mean “good.”  In just less than 15 minutes of ice time, he had one shot attempt (blocked) and lost his only faceoff taken.  That was it.

-- Brett Connolly’s line was even stranger.  In just less than 11 minutes, he had two minor penalties and…well, that’s it.

-- Despite the early pressure by the Caps, Columbus finished with 51 shot attempts overall to 43 for the Caps.

In the end…

Not nearly enough guys stepped up to fill the void left by injuries.  Backstrom, Ovechkin, and even Paul Carey (in a fill-in role) played pretty well.  Justin Williams did have three shots on goal.  After that, the forwards seemed to struggle.  Burakovsky, Marcus Johansson, and Evgeny Kuznetsov were conspicuous by their absence on the score sheet.  That is not going to do going forward, although the Caps were a phantom penalty call away from getting at least a point out of this game.  If one game matters, we know that Lars Eller and T.J. Oshie matter to the success of this team.  Now, we need to know about the depth the Caps have to weather injuries to those players.  This game doesn’t get a good grade on that aspect.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 6

The Washington Capitals bounced back in Week 6 to gain points in all three games and posted a 2-0-1 record.  The week had something for everyone – a pasting of a bitter rival, a nail-biter against one of the league’s elite franchises, and for those who like to complain about something, a blown third period lead that led to the only blemish on the week, an overtime loss.

Record: 2-0-1

For the third time in six weeks the Caps avoided a loss in regulation time and left the Caps one point behind last year’s points pace after 17 games (11-4-2 versus 12-4-1).  The win and an overtime loss against Metropolitan Division opponents left the Caps with a 2-2-2 record against divisional opponents.  The two consecutive wins to close the week were the first consecutive wins for the Caps since they put together a five-game winning streak in Games 7-11, ending on November 5^th. 

Offense:  3.00/game (season: 2.71 /game; rank: 13th)

The Caps had a measure of balance in Week 6.  Seven skaters shared in the nine goals scored for the week, and 14 different skaters recorded points.  Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie shared the lead in goals for the week with two apiece; Backstrom and Jay Beagle had the game-winning goals for the Caps.  For Beagle, his game-winning goal against the Red Wings to close the week was his second of the season, tying a career high in game winners (two).  Both of those game-winners have come late in the third periods of games, the first with just 30 seconds left in a 3-2 win over Winnipeg on November 18^th, and again this week with 5:11 left in the 1-0 win over Detroit.

Nicklas Backstrom also had a pair of goals for the Caps in Week 6 and led the team in points (3-3-5), five of them of them coming in the Caps’ 7-1 win over Pittsburgh in the middle game of the week.  It was Backstrom’s fifth career five-point game against his fifth different team (Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, New Jersey, and the New York Rangers being the others).  It was the first time he had two goals in a five-point effort. 

T.J. Oshie was the other Capital with two goals for the week, both of them also scored in the win over Pittsburgh. It was Oshie’s second four-point game as a Capital (the other coming in a 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning last December 18^th) and fourth four-point game of his career.  The week did not come without a price for Oshie, who left the game against the Red Wings with an upper-body injury that is described as “week-to-week.”

Defense: 1.00/game (season:  2.12/game; rank: 2nd)

After allowing opponents more than 30 shots on goal in consecutive games for the first time this season in Week 5, the Caps returned to their stingy ways in Week 6.  Opponents averaged just 26 shots on goal per game in the three games, and all of them failed to reach the 30 shot threshold.  By the end of the week , the Caps allowed the sixth-fewest shots on goal per game in the league (27.5 per game).

There weren’t many goals scored on those shots, but Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson saw them all.  Both were on ice for all three goals scored against the Caps in Week 6.  Otherwise, it was a pretty good week for the Caps in terms of suppressing opponents’ pressure.  The Caps were 53.0 percent in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 for the week (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Goaltending:  1.00 / .962 / 1 shutout (season: 1.93 / .929 / 2 SO)

It was a fine week for the goaltenders. It was the first time that Caps goalies allowed one or fewer goals in regulation time in three consecutive games since Games 33-35 last season when they Beat Carolina, 2-1, defeated Montreal, 3-1; and shutout Buffalo, 2-0.  And, as in that instance, the wins were split into two for Braden Holtby (the second one, as in Week 6, a shutout) and one for Philipp Grubauer.

Holtby was especially impressive in the final two games of the week.  In beating Pittsburgh and Detroit, he stopped 50 of 51 shots (.980 save percentage).  It is the last fine performance in a recent run of them for Holtby.  Since allowing four goals on 29 shots in a 4-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers on October 26^th,  he is 7-1-0, 1.70, .942, with one shutout.  The shutout, a 1-0 win over the Detroit Red Wings to close the week, was Holtby’s 24^th in team history, second only to Olaf Kolzig (35).  Since coming into the league in the 2010-2011 season, those 24 shutouts are tenth-most in the league. 

Philipp Grubauer opened the week against Collumbus, a challenge by head coach Barry Trotz to the skaters to play better in front of him than they did in a 5-1 loss to Carolina to close Week 5.  They responded, as did Grubauer, who stopped 24 of 25 shots in regulation before allowing a Cam Atkinson goal in the first minute of overtime to come up short on getting the second standings point.

Overall, Holtby and Grubauer stopped every shot they faced in the first and second periods, 47 shots turned aside in all.  Even their 27-for-29 performance in the third periods of games (.931 save percentage) – one of those goals a shutout-spoiling goal by Phil Kessel when the Caps already had a 6-0 lead over the Penguins – was very good.

Fun goaltending fact: The Caps were the only team in the league after Week 6 with both primary goaltenders with a goals against average of 2.00 or lower for the season.

Power Play: 2-for-11 / 18.2 percent (season: 13.7 percent; rank: 23rd)

The best one could say for the week was that it amounted to “baby steps.”  The worst one could say was, “inconsistent.”  The Caps went 2-for-7 against Pittsburgh in the 7-1 win, the first time since Game 3 ( a 3-0 win over Colorado) that the Caps recorded more than one power play goal in a game.  The Caps went 0-for-2 in each of the games bracketing that win over Pittsburgh.

It was not an especially efficient power play in terms of shooting.  The Caps had 19:33 in power play ice time for the week and managed only 12 shots on goal.  If there was an encouraging sign there, it was in Justin Williams getting three of those shots (one goal) and T.J. Oshie getting another (one goal), players who had not had many opportunities in the middle of the 1-3-1 power play scheme.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-11 / 100.0 percent (season: 84.6 percent; rank: 12th)

It is hard to do better than 11-for-11.  It was part of an impressive run for the Caps that has seen their penalty killers skate off 31 of 34 shorthanded situations over their last 11 games (91.2 percent penalty killing).  The penalty killing was especially impressive against Pittsburgh, holding the Penguins to a single shot on goal in 6:47 of shorthanded ice time.  Overall, the Caps held opponents to 12 shots on goal in 19:48 in shorthanded ice time.

That shorthanded ice time is the one area of concern for the week.  The 11 penalty killing situations the Caps faced in Week 6 is the most they faced in any week this season, both in total and in average per game (3.67).  Even for a team whose penalty killing is improving by the game, that is getting into territory the Caps would prefer to avoid.

Faceoffs: 95-for-190 / 50.0 percent (season: 51.0% / rank: 9th)

The 50.0 percent for Week 6 is a bit misleading.  The Caps dominated the Penguins in the middle game of the week, going 45-for-80 (56.3 percent).  The other two games of the week were not as successful, going 27-for-56 against Columbus (48.2 percent) and 23-for-54 (42.6 percent) against Detroit.  It was also a case of neutral zone dominance (53.6 percent for the week) while less impressive in the offensive zone (50.7 percent) and defensive zone (46.0 percent.

At an individual level three of the four Caps taking at least ten draws were over 50 percent for the week – Nicklas Backstrom (35-for-65/53.8 percent), Lars Eller (14-for-24/58.3 percent), and Jay Beagle (26-for-39/66.7 percent).  But there is an issue here, and that is Evgeny Kuznetsov.  He was 16-for-46 for the week (34.8 percent), under 50 percent in all three zones.  If possession matter, it matters from the drop of the puck, and Kuznetsov ranks 115^th of 119 players having taken 100 or more draws this season (40.9 percent).  That’s a tough place for a top-line center to be.

Goals by Period:

What stands out this week is that the Caps did not allow a goal in either the first or second periods of games.  With none allowed in the first period of three games, the Caps ended the week tied for second (with San Jose) in fewest first period goals allowed this season (eight), and their plus-11 first period goal differential was tops in the league.  And, for a team that struggled with allowing second period goals early in the season, the Caps finished the week tied for the fourth-fewest second period goals allowed (13).

Conversely, if there was a concern, it was allowing a pair of third-period goals and an overtime goal.  It left the Caps in the middle of the pack in third period goals allowed (tied for 11th-fewest). 

On the other side, the three goals the Caps scored in the first period were all in the game against Pittsburgh.  It did put them in fourth place (with Florida) for fourth-most goals scored in the first period this season.  What was more impressive was the four third period goals the Caps scored (three against Pittsburgh) that was more than a third of the total they had in the season coming into the week (11).

In the end…

It was a good week in that the Caps overwhelmed the Penguins, but that might overstate the quality of play for the week.  Not that it was bad, but an overtime loss and a 1-0 win on a late goal does not scream “dominating,” either.  What this week was about was banking standings points when, in a larger sense, the Caps were not quite hitting on all cylinders.  And that is a good thing, given that the Caps lost three forwards in the Detroit game, two of them – Lars Eller and T.J. Oshie – who will be out for a bit.  Those players represent the first man-games lost to the club to injury this season, but that won’t be on the record until Week 7.  That is what the 82-game grind of a season is about, though.  Injuries are a part of it, and it gives the Caps an opportunity to see what others can do with some more responsibility.  Think of it as training for next spring.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-0, 0.50, .980, 1 shutout)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (3-3-6, plus-3, 53.8 percent faceoff wins, six hits)
• Third Star: T.J. Oshie (2-2-4, plus-5, 11 shot attempts in two-plus games, four hits)

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 17: Washington Capitals 1 - Detroit Red Wings 0

Sometimes, one is all it takes.  The Washington Capitals got one goal in their game against the Detroit Red Wings on Friday night, and goalie Braden Holtby made it stand up as the Caps made it two wins in a row, beating the Red Wings, 1-0, at Verizon Center.

For more than 50 minutes the teams battled back and forth without a goal to show for it.  As the clock ticked down toward the five-minute mark in regulation, the teams were fighting for the puck in the corner to the right of Detroit goaltender Jimmy Howard.  Tom Wilson tried to send tht puck out from below the goal line, but it ended up on the stick of Tomas Tatar, who tried to backhand it off the side wall and out of the zone.  The puck made only so far as Dmitry Orlov.  From the left point, Orlov sent a drive to the net that Howard stopped, but the rebound came out to the low slot where Jay Beagle was waiting.  From one knee, Beagle snapped a shot under the glove of the diving Howard, and the Caps had the only goal they would need.

Other stuff…

-- Braden Holtby secured his first shutout of the season by stopping all 25 shots he saw.  In his last eight appearances, Holtby is 7-1-0, 1.53, .942, and now one shutout.

-- After a brief hiccup in which they allowed 34 and 38 shots on goal in consecutive games, the Caps allowing the Red Wings just 25 shots on goal was the third straight game holding an opponent to fewer than 30 shots.

-- Last season, the Caps beat the Red Wings, 2-1, in overtime in Game 17 of the season to go 12-4-1.  With last night’s 1-0 win over the Red Wings in Game 17, the Caps are 11-4-2, just one point off last year’s pace.

--  Lars Eller lasted one shift.  T.J. Oshie lasted three.  Andre Burakovsky skated seven shifts.  All sustained upper body injuries that took them out of the game, leaving the Caps having to use just nine forwards for more than two periods.

-- Even with the three forwards out, Alex Ovechkin skated just 19 minutes.  That didn’t keep him from posting nine shot attempts (four shots on goal) and dishing out four hits.

-- There was a subtle change on the blue line in ice time.  Matt Niskanen got 3:45 in power play ice time; John Carlson got 1:35.

-- Speaking of hits, anyone have “Nicklas Backstrom” leading the team?  Well, he did, with five.

-- Brett Connolly, not thought of as an especially physical forward, had four credited hits in 15 minutes of ice time with no shots on goal.  The 15 minutes and changed was more than three minutes more than his previous high in ice time this season.

-- With the game-winning goal in this game and an assist in the previous game against Pittsburgh, Jay Beagle is almost half way (4-4-8) to his career highs in goals, assists, and points in a season (10-10-20 in 62 games 2014-2015) after just 17 games. 

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov wins the buffet coupon after last night’s game.  No points, but he had two shots on goal, six shot attempts (two other blocked, two misses), two hits, three giveaways, two takeaways, a blocked shot, and he took 14 faceoffs (3-for-14).

In the end…

This could have been a letdown game after the big win against the Penguins on Wednesday.  The Caps caught something of a break facing a team struggling to score goals, but they still managed to grind out a win when their own scorers were having problems.  And then there were the injuries to Eller, Oshie, and Burakovsky that took out much of the scoring punch that the Caps have on hand.  A timely goal and some stout goaltending gave the Caps what they needed when the other pieces were missing.  That’s what makes for a good win on a tough night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 17: Red Wings at Capitals, November 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their 7-1 thumping of the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday night, take the ice on Friday for the second of their season-long five-game home stand. The seven goal explosion was the high-water mark for goal in a game this season for the Caps and it comfortably surpassed the total number of goals they scored in their previous four games (five goals).

Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings are not making their last year in Joe Louis Arena a memorable one. It started out as if it might be such as season, the Wings 6-2-0 in their first eight games. However, in their last nine games they are 2-6-1, causing them to slip to seventh place in the Atlantic Division.

It is not as if the Wings have been blown out in their losses. Of their seven losses in their last nine games, four of them were by one goal and another (a 5-3 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on November 4th) featured an empty net goal by the Jets with less than ten seconds left in that game.

Detroit’s problem has been getting anything resembling consistent scoring. In their 2-6-1 slide they have just 16 goals (1.78/game), and they have been shut out twice. Dylan Larkin and Henrik Zetterberg split six goals over those nine games. Larkin is a bit of a curious case so far. With five goals on the season, he is roughly on a pace (24 goals) to match last year’s total as a rookie (23, tied for third among all 2015-2016 rookies). However, through 17 games he has just one assist, that coming on Opening Night in Tampa Bay against the Lightning. And, he has not been much of a road warrior, going 1-1-2, minus-6, in seven road games (he does not have a “plus” game on the road this year). In three career games against the Caps, Larkin is 1-1-2, plus-2.

Then there is Henrik Zetterberg. At 36 years of age, he is the oldest member of the Red Wings. And the way his season started, one might have thought the years were starting to show on his frame. In his first ten games, Zetterberg did not record a goal (although he did have four assists) and was a minus-1. In his last seven games he is 3-4-7, plus-1. His road performances have been uneven so far, going 1-2-3, minus-2, in seven road games but failing to record a single shot on goal in two of them. He was once one of the best two-way forwards in the league, going five straight seasons with at least 20 goals, at least 65 points, and five straight top-ten finishes in the Selke Trophy voting for best defensive forward (although he has never won it). However, he does not have a 20-goal season in his last four seasons coming into this one and cleared the 65-point threshold once (66 points in 2014-2015). His progress this season bears watching. In 17 career games against the Caps, Zetterberg is 6-6-12, minus-1.

Goaltending has been a Jekyll and Hyde experience for the Red Wings so far. On the one hand there is Jimmy Howard with a 1.80 goals against average and .943 save percentage in eight appearances. On the other is Petr Mrazek with a 3.16 goals against average and a .901 save percentage in 11 games. The odd thing, though, is how similar their records look. Howard is 4-3-0, while Mrazek is 4-5-1. Mrazek is the more interesting, and arguably more disappointing story. He is on a pace to finish with the worst goals against average and save percentage numbers of his brief career to date. Those numbers are especially disappointing compared to last year, when he was 2.33 and .921 in 54 games. This season, Mrazek has been streaky. He lost his first two decisions, stopping just 64 of 72 shots in the process (.889 save percentage), then he won four straight decisions with a .945 save percentage. However, he is winless in his last five appearances (0-3-1, one no-decision) with a .860 save percentage. In four career games against Washington, Mrazek is 1-2-1, 1.54, .944, with one shutout.

1.  The Detroit Red Wings have won 2,866 games in their history. Only the Montreal Canadiens (3,311) and the Boston Bruins (3,031) have won more. Only the Canadiens have appeared in more Stanley Cup finals (34 to 24), and only the Canadiens (24) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (13) have more Stanley Cup championships than the Red Wings (11). However, with seven years (and counting) having passed since they last appeared in a Stanley Cup finals, it is their longest finals drought since they appeared in the Cup final in 1995 for the first time in 29 years.

2.  Detroit has scored more than three goals on the road just once in seven road games this season, losing 6-4 to the Tampa Bay Lighting on Opening Night. Odd thing about that game. Detroit had 34 penalty minutes in the contest, a total surpassed just twice in a single game since the 2004-2005 lockout and not at all since February 18, 2008 in a 4-0 win over the Colorado Avalanche.

3.  Only three teams – the Toronto Maple Leafs (18), the Edmonton Oilers (18), and the Caps (19) – have more first period goals this season than Detroit (17). Trouble with that is that there are only six teams allowing more third period goals than the Red Wings (17).

4.  On the blue line, Mike Green has three goals. The other seven defensemen to dress for Detroit this season have a total of four. Green has 11 points. No other defenseman has more than four. Green is the third-oldest defenseman on the squad, and he is older than 15 other skaters on the team. The “Young Guns” days seem long ago.

5.  The Red Wings were once the gold standard of possession hockey. Back in their last Stanley Cup winning year in 2007-2008 they led the league by a wide margin in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (58.77 percent to 55.57 percent for the Caps; numbers from Corsica.hockey). Not so these days. The Red Wings rank 29th in CF% at 5-on-5 (45.82, ahead of only the Arizona Coyotes with 45.76).

1.  The seven-goal performance by the Caps against Pittsburgh on Wednesday night was the 13th time since the 2004-2005 lockout that the Caps scored seven or more goals in a single game on home ice. It was the third time they did so and scored both a power play and a shorthanded goal in the process. Oddly enough, in none of those 13 games did the Caps record as many as 40 shots, not even in their 10-2 win over the Boston Bruins on March 3, 2008 (10 goals on 34 shots).

2.  Only the Los Angeles Kings (13 times) have out-shot opponents more often than the Caps (12).

3.  The Capitals’ plus-11 first period goal differential is far and away the best in the league (Columbus is plus-8).

4.  Nicklas Backstrom had three assists in his five-point effort against the Penguins. Since he came into the league, no player has more games with three or more assists than Backstrom (32). Sidney Crosby is second with 30.

5.  The Caps do a good job stifling opponents’ offense on an overall level. They rank fifth in Corsi-against per 60 minutes (51.67; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Gustav Nyquist

Gustav Nyquist was a fourth-round draft pick of the Red Wings in the 2008 entry draft. He was a good, if not great goal scorer for a couple of years with the Wings’ AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids. Then, in the 2013-2014 season, he exploded for 28 goals in just 57 games. Since then, though, his goal scoring totals have been like air slowly leaking out of a balloon – 27 goals in 82 games and then 17 goals in 82 games last season. So far this season he has three goals in 17 games (a 14-goal pace), and he brings an 11-game streak without a goal into this contest. He has only three points on the road this season (all assists), and he has only eight shots on goal in seven road games. It is starting to show up in his ice time, which over the last four games has dropped from 22:53 to 18:37 to 15:25 and finally to 14:34 last Tuesday night in a 4-3 loss to the Lightning. Nyquist is 5-3-8, plus-2, in nine career games against the Caps.

Washington: The Washington Defense

If you had “Karl Alzner” as the Washington Capitals defenseman leading the team’s blueliners in goals almost one-fifth through the season, buy a lottery ticket. Until Wednesday night against the Penguins, he was the only Capital defenseman to score a goal this season (Dmitry Orlov got his first). Five other defensemen – John Carlson, Nate Schmidt, Matt Niskanen, Brooks Orpik, and Taylor Chorney are a combined 0-for-114 shooting. Some of that is expected; Orpik and Chorney would be hard pressed to get two goals combined this season (okay…Orpik had three last season, including his first regular season game-winner). However, Niskanen, Schmidt, and especially Carlson going this long without even an accidental, ricochet-off-two-sticks-and-the-pipe goal, is bordering on the bizarre. Last season, the Caps had seven defensemen record at least one goal, all of them represented on this year’s team, so you would think it is just a matter of time and continuing to pound shots on net. But it does look odd.

In the end…

Perhaps the days of the Detroit Red Wings being the dominating team are over. Clearly, they are not the club that over a 12-season span won 50 or more regular season games five times, went to the Stanley Cup final five times, and won the chalice on four occasions. The last three seasons the Wings bowed out in the first round of the playoffs, and at the moment they look like a club that will struggle to make the postseason for the 26th straight year. It is a team that is having a devil of a time finding the back of the net, especially on the road (1.86 goals per game).  And their defense has shown cracks.   They have allowed four or more goals in five of their last eight games.  On top of that, the Red Wings have a rather lengthy injury list.

The Caps are hardly a team that can afford to be complacent about this game or this team, though.  One blow out win does not a winning streak make, and the 7-1 win on Wednesday means only that the Caps are 2-2-1 in their last five games.  But if the Caps come out as hungry as they were on Wednesday, they can get a good start on the weekend.

Capitals 4 – Red Wings 1

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 16: Washington Capitals 7 - Pittsburgh Penguins 1

It might be a just a mid-week, mid-season game for some, but for the Washington Capitals on Wednesday night, it was about making a point against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Having lost last spring’s Eastern Conference semi-final playoff series to the Penguins, and losing to them on Opening Night this season as the Penguins raised their Stanley Cup Champion banner to the rafters, showing themselves to be competitive in this rivalry was something that needed to be established.

The Capitals certainly did that, pasting the Penguins at Verizon Center, 7-1, behind big nights from Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie. It was Oshie getting things started for the Caps in the first period. With Pittsburgh on a power play, Evgeni Malkin was a little too lackadaisical with the puck inside the Caps blue line. Trying to nudge the puck to teammate Kris Letang, it didn’t have enough juice, and Oshie got his stick on it. Oshie then chipped the puck out into open ice in the neutral zone where Jay Beagle gave chase. In alone on goalie Matt Murray, Beagle tried to deke Murray to the ice and tuck in a backhand. Murray got his right pad on the puck, but Oshie followed up to chip the puck over that right pad, and it was 1-0, 7:32 into the game.

Backstrom got on the board ten minutes later. Skating down the right side in front of the player benches, Oshie fed Backstrom in the middle cruising toward the Penguins blue line. Backstrom backed off defenseman Brian Dumoulin and snapped a shot that handcuffed Murray, sneaking under his left arm, to make it 2-0 at the 17:30 mark.

It was Oshie once more just before the first intermission. On a power play, the Caps moved the puck up ice smartly, starting with a pass from goalie Braden Holtby to John Carlson. It was Carlson up ice to Alex Ovechkin, who slid the puck to Oshie entering the zone, then back to Carlson for a shot from outside. Marc-Andre Fleury, in relief of the injured Murray, made the initial save, but Oshie swooped in and almost took the puck off the blade of Backstrom’s stick to chip the puck into the empty net with just 7.9 seconds left in the first period.

Dmitry Orlov got on the board early in the second period. It started when the Penguins fumbled the puck inside the Caps blue line, and Backstrom was there to move it out of harm’s way into the neutral zone. From there, Marcus Johansson scooped it up and headed down the right side. Gaining the offensive zone, he slid it across to Orlov trailing the play. Orlov stepped up and wrong-footed a wrist shot that beat Fleury past his right pad to make it 4-0 just over five minutes into the second period.

Five minutes into the third period, the Caps had their second power play goal of the evening. With Washington on a 5-on-3 advantage, Backstrom sent the puck through the blue paint to Oshie on the far side to Fleury’s right. Oshie collected the puck and threaded a pass into the middle through a maze of sticks where Justin Williams was waiting. Williams was patient enough to settle the puck and flip it under Fleury’s right arm to make it 5-0.

Five minutes later the Caps capitalized on another Penguin turnover. Duimoulin blew a tire just inside the Caps blue line, and Andre Burakovsky pulled the puck free. He fed Ovechkin overtaking him on the right wing, and Ovechkin had a clear lane down ice. With Letang trying to close the distance, Ovechkin warded him off, pulled the puck to his forehand, and tucked it around Fleury’s left pad to give the Caps a 6-0 lead 10:26 into the third period.

After Phil Kessel spoiled Holtby’s shutout bid on a rebound from in close at the 16:28 mark, Backstrom closed the scoring by taking a long feed from Nate Schmidt just outside the Pittsburgh blue line, skating down the middle, and rifling a shot over Fleury’s left shoulder at the 16:58 mark to seal the win.

Other stuff…

-- Before last night, there were 16 instances of a Washington Capital player scoring both a power play and a shorthanded goal in the same game dating back to 1987.  Last night, T.J. Oshie became the 14^th Capital to do it (Peter Bondra did it four times, the only Capital to do it more than once).  Mike Green had been the last one to do it, turning the special teams daily double in a 3-1 win over the Florida Panthers back on February 7, 2009.  It was part of Green’s record-setting eight-game goals streak by a defenseman.

-- Nicklas Backstrom took over second place in total games with five or more points since the 1987-1988 season.   His two-goal, three-assist night gave him his fifth such game in his career, breaking his tie with Alex Ovechkin and put him one behind Peter Bondra.

-- Last night was the first time two Capitals recorded four or more points in a single game since Oshie and Alex Ovechkin did it in a 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 18, 2015.

-- When the Caps foiled the Penguins on four power play opportunities, it was the first time the Caps shut out an opponent on four or more power plays since the stopped four Winnipeg Jet power plays in a 3-2 win on November 1^st.  Curious thing about that is that in the seven games since that win, last night was just the third time the Caps allowed a team more than two power play chances.

-- Kris Letang…minus-5.  First time that’s happened to a Penguin since March 2016 (cough – Sidney Crosby – cough).

-- Every Capital had a shot on goal except Andre Burakovsky and Zach Sanford.  Eight Capitals had three or more shots, none had more than four.  Marcus Johansson and Nicklas Backstrom were two of the four Caps with four shots on goal.  Who said Swedes don’t shoot the puck.

-- The Caps had seven power play opportunities, their high for the season and the most since they had eight (no goals) in a 5-2 loss to the Florida Panthers last February 2^nd.  Their two power play goals marked the first time since Game 3 (a 3-0 win over the Colorado Avalanche) that the Caps had a multi-power play goal game.

-- Five of the six Capitals defensemen had points.  Only Karl Alzner did not have a mark on his score sheet.

-- This was the worst beating the Caps gave the Penguins in a regular season, game, by goal differential, since the Caps beat the Pens, 8-0, on October 29, 1991, in Pittsburgh.  The last time the Caps beat the Pens by more goals on home ice was in an 8-0 win on January 2, 1989.

-- Lost in the Fleury…uh, flurry of goals is the consistency of Braden Holtby in net.  Since he allowed four goals on 29 shots in a 4-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers on October 26^th, he is 6-1-0, 2.14, .935.

In the end…

Put aside that it is November, and just enjoy the highlights.  Games like this don’t happen often.  In 11 seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Caps have scored seven or more goals 24 times, a little more than twice a season.  And to do it against the team that has caused so much pain and despair over the years?  Well, that just makes it better, November or not.  Hope y’all recorded it to get through the next couple of months until the teams meet again.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 16: Penguins at Capitals, November 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals complete their third set of back-to-back games this season on Wednesday night when they return home to face the Pittsburgh Penguins at Verizon Center.  The Caps won both ends of their first back-to-back this season, a 5-2 win over the Vancouver Canucks and a 3-1 win over the Calgary Flames on October 29^th and 30^th.  They split their next back-to-back, beating the Chicago Blackhawks on Veterans Day in overtime, 3-2, then losing the next evening in Carolina to the Hurricanes, 5-1.  They will be looking for a split of this back-to-back set after a 2-1 overtime loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets last night.

The Penguins will be waiting for the Caps in Washington having won seven of their last nine games. The latest being a 4-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs last Saturday night. Scoring has not been a problem for the Penguins, who rank sixth in league scoring offense (3.07 goals per game).  Four players have at least 13 points for the Pens.  No team has more, and only the Chicago Blackhawks and Winnipeg Jets have as many.

Evgeni Malkin leads that group with 15 points overall (8-7-15) and is in the midst of a four-game points streak (2-2-4).  Holding him off the score sheet has become an increasingly rare occurrence. After recording points in three of his first six contests this season (2-3-5), including a goal and an assist in the Pens’ 3-2 Gimmick win on Opening Night, Malkin has points in eight of his last nine contests (6-4-10).  The odd part of Malkin’s scoring is that his total might be higher if he didn’t lead the club in penalty minutes (22).  His total puts him in the top-25 in the league in PIMs.  In 33 career games against the Caps, Malkin is 12-35-47, plus-2.

Finding Sidney Crosby among the league’s points leaders would hardly be surprising. But so far, his 13 points ranks just a tie for 29^th place in the league.  Part of that is his having played in just nine games so far, the consequence of missing six games to a concussion to start the season.  But in a somewhat surprising turn, Crosby is tied for second in the league in goals scored (10), trailing only Winnipeg’s precocious rookie Patrik Laine (11).  What has been every bit as remarkable is his consistency, which has been (dare we say it) “Ovechkinian.”  Crosby has goals in seven of the nine games in which he played so far and has three two-goal games, tied with Laine for the most multi-goal games this season.  Crosby is 19-36-55, plus-4 in 38 career games against Washington.

Phil Kessel is among that quartet with at least 13 points so far (Patric Hornqvist is the fourth member of the group).  Kessel’s contribution has been primarily on the power play, where he is 3-6-9, those nine power play points ranked in a tie for second in the league, one behind Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux.  The odd part about Kessel’s power play scoring is that all of his power play goals and all but one of his power play points have come at home.  That’s part of the silver lining for the Caps.  If there is another, it is that Kessel is without a power play goal in his last seven games, in fact without a goal of any kind in seven games.  He is 7-15-22, minus-4 in 36 career games against the Caps.

1.  Shots on goal are aplenty in Penguin games.  They rank fourth in shots on goal per game (32.3 percent) and second in shots on goal allowed per game (33.7).  Only the Toronto Maple Leafs feature more total shots on goal, for and against, on a per game basis (67.1) than the Pens (66.0).

2.  No team has fewer power play goals on the road than the Penguins (2).

3.  With an average age of 28.4 years to start the season, the Penguins were the second-oldest club in the league. They also happened to be the fourth smallest club by average weight, giving away more than seven pounds per man to the Capitals.  

4.  The Penguins clamp down on opponents late in games.  No team has allowed fewer third period goals (8) than the Penguins.

5.  Pittsburgh is, at the moment, a middle-of-the-road possession team, ranking just 16^th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (49.82 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  They are worse on the road, ranked 19^th (48.92 percent).

1.  The Caps, at 9-5-1, are two wins and three standings points behind their 15-game pace to open last season (11-4-0/22 points).

2.  Through 15 games last season, the Caps were 11-for-47 on the power play (23.4 percent).  So far, through 15 games, they are 5-for-42 (11.9 percent, ranked 25^th).

3.  On the odd side of the season-to-season comparison, last year at this time, Alex Ovechkin had one power play goal through his first 15 games.  He has two man advantage goals through 15 games so far this season.

4.  The Caps, who spent the first few games of this season almost impossible so score upon in the third period, aren’t clamping down so well in the final 20 minutes overall.  They have allowed 13 third period goals, ranked tied for seventh with four other teams.  On the brighter side, only two teams have allowed fewer first period goals than the Caps (8) – the San Jose Sharks and New Jersey Devils with six apiece.

5.  Washington returns home with the tenth-best Corsi-for at 5-on-5 on home ice (52.67 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Kris Letang

The line on Kris Letang at tsn.ca describes him as “Excellent, mobile big-minute defenseman, when healthy.”  It is that last part that always seems to be an issue.  Since appearing in all 82 games of the 2010-2011 season, Letang has appeared in 273 of a possible 391 games, missing time to a variety of ailments – upper body injury, wrist, groin, heart ailment.  Despite missing so much time, since the 2011-2012 season, Letang is one of just eight defensemen in the league with at least 50 goals and at least 200 points (he is with 54 and 232).  In doing so, he played 18 fewer games over that span than Brent Burns and a full season’s worth – 82 games – fewer than the player with the next fewest games played, Kevin Shattenkirk.  And, despite appearing in just 10 of 15 games so far this season, he is tied for fourth in most multi-point games by a defenseman (3), one fewer than Duncan Keith, Damon Severson, and Shattenkirk.  Letang is 4-9-13, minus-10 in 28 career games against the Caps.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Before T.J. Oshie came to Washington, he was a competent, if not elite set-up man.  In seven seasons with the St. Louis Blues, he never averaged fewer than 0.39 assists per game.  Last season, he recorded a career low in average assists per game (0.31).  That looks almost Gretzkian compared to his totals so far this season.  Through 15 games, Oshie has two assists – 0.13 per game.  Neither of those assists came on home ice, although both did come in road wins (at Chicago and at Vancouver).  It is an odd counterpoint to his being on a pace to finish with his first 30-goal season (he is on a pace to finish with 33 goals), and five of his six goals have been scored at Verizon Center.  In 15 career games against Pittsburgh, Oshie is 4-3-7, plus-2.

In the end…

The Caps had to grit their teeth and watch the Penguins hoist their Stanley Cup Champion banner to the rafters on Opening Night.  Then they had to endure a 3-2 trick shot loss that lasted eight rounds before it was decided.  This on top of falling in overtime in a Game 6 in the playoffs last spring.  Makes one wonder what it takes to build up a healthy anger toward this team and, more specifically, how to channel that anger constructively into a win.  The Caps are not playing well at the moment, but there should be no problem in getting up for this game.  It is November, but this game means something.  Will, skill…just win the damn game.

Capitals 3 – Penguins 2

A ONE-Point Night -- Game 15: Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - Washington Capitals 1 (OT)

The Washington Capitals had a third period lead against the Columbus Blue Jackets, but they could not hold it as the Blue Jackets tied things late in the third period and won the contest in overtime, 2-1.

The teams fought to a scoreless draw in the first period and almost escaped the second period without a goal recorded.  However, late in the middle frame, Nicklas Backstrom took a Brooks Orpik pass in stride, skated through the neutral zone, eased in down the middle, and snapped a shot past the glove of Sergei Bobrovsky.  The goal at the 15:43 mark would be the only scoring through 40 minutes.

It might have been enough, but Zach Werenski, who seemed to be all over the ice in this game, tied it 13 minutes into the third period with a laser that beat goalie Philipp Grubauer on the glove side off the post to make it 1-1.

That would be all the scoring in regulation, a goal by Nicklas Backstrom having been disallowed on video appeal due to an offside.  In overtime, the Blue Jackets ended things in the first minute when Brandon Dubinsky won a draw, Cam Atkinson picked up the loose puck, and Atkinson snapped the puck past Grubauer’s blocker for the 2-1 Columbus win.

Other stuff…

-- Washington and Columbus combined for a total of just 28 shot attempts and 11 shots on goal in the first period.

-- At one point, Justin Williams, Dmitry Orlov, and Lars Eller had nine of the Caps’ 16 shot attempts and half of the team’s six shots on goal.  That is not a good mix for the offensive load early in games. 

-- Weird stat.  In six games coming into this one in which Columbus had two or fewer power play opportunities, they recorded at least one power play goal in five of those games and were 6-for-11 overall (55.6 percent).  In games in which they had three or more power play opportunities, they had power play goals in three of them and were 6-for-25 (24.0 percent) in those games.  Columbus was 0-for-3 in this game.

-- The Caps had three shots in the third period, none in overtime.

-- The Caps had two power play shots (no goals) in 3:31 of power play ice time.  Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson were the shot makers.  Again, nothing low or in the middle.  There just seems to be a general lack of aggression on the man advantage.

-- Only three forwards had less even strength ice time than Ovechkin (11:20) – Zach Sanford (10:12), Daniel Winnik (10:21), and Jay Beagle (10:17).

-- Backstrom’s goal was his first in five games and just his second of the season.  Backstrom has had some slow starts in his career, but last year he has his second goal in Game 2 of the season.

-- We noted in the prognosto that Cam Atkinson has been something of a one-trick pony so far, being mostly a power play phenomenon.  He did have three of Columbus’ five power play shots, and Nick Foligno and Sam Gagner contributed a shot.  It suggested that Philipp Grubauer was the Caps’ best penalty killer.

-- Brooks Orpik had an assist on the night, his fourth assist and point of the season.  All of them have come on the road.

-- T.J. Oshie led the Caps in shot attempts for the evening, getting a total of seven (3 shots on goal, 2 missed shots, two shots blocked).

In the end…

The Caps are a team in a fog at the moment.  Their offense has no continuity, their power play has no cohesion, and they can’t seem to hold a lead when they get one (late leads lost to Chicago in a win and in this game).  Last season, the Caps had a unique ability to keep one loss from becoming two, even if they were not playing particularly well.  So far this season, the club looks as if it is still sleepwalking a bit after their loss to the Penguins in the second round of the postseason.  Well, they get to do something about that on Wednesday night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 15: Capitals at Blue Jackets, November 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game road swing with a visit to Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, to face the Metropolitan Division rival Blue Jackets.  The Capitals will be looking to salvage a winning road trip after splitting their first two games, an overtime win against the Chicago Blackhawks last Friday and a loss in Raleigh to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday.

Columbus comes into this contest having alternated wins and losses over last five contests (3-1-1), with all three wins at home, against the Montreal Canadiens, the Anaheim Ducks and the St. Louis Blues, and losing both games on the road, to the Blues and to the Boston Bruins.  Scoring has been something of an all or none proposition for the Blue Jackets in this five-game run, managing only six goals in the middle three games of it, but bookending those three games with a 10-0 win over Montreal to start the run and an 8-4 win over St. Louis in their most recent contest, last Saturday.

Overall, Columbus has 24 goals in their last four games, propelling them into second place in the league in scoring offense (3.46 goals per game; the New York Rangers are first at 4.06 goals per game).   It is a team with a certain balance among its goal scorers.  No Blue Jacket ranks in the top-20 in goal scoring, but there are seven players with four or more goals among 21 players to dress for Columbus so far this season.

That group is led by Nick Foligno and Sam Gagner.  Foligno, now in his fifth season with the Blue Jackets after spending his first five NHL seasons with the Ottawa Senators, is on a pace to rebound smartly from what was something of a disappointing 2015-2016 campaign.  After recording his first career 30-goal season in 2014-2015 (31), he recorded only 12 goals in 72 games last season.  Four of his six goals this season have been posted in his last five games (4-3-7, plus-3), and he has been a remarkably efficient shooter overall so far.  His six goals have been recorded on a total of 18 shots.  In 26 career games against the Caps, Foligno is 6-12-18, plus-3.

Sam Gagner is in his first seasons in Columbus after signing a one-year/$650,000 contract with the Blue Jackets last summer.  Gagner, a former sixth-overall draft pick (2007), is with his fourth NHL organization in his tenth season.   Over his first eight season he had the double-whammy of being something of an underachiever and being consistent at it in terms of production.  From 2007-2008 through 2014-2015, he never scored fewer than ten goals in a season or more than 18.  Last season he managed just eight goals in 53 games with the Philadelphia Flyers, none of them in his last 11 games.  He is 6-1-7, plus-1, over his last seven games.  Gagner is 1-1-2, minus-6, in 11 career games against Washington.

Zach Werenski is the only defenseman among the seven Blue Jackets with four or more goals.  He has had a fine start to his NHL rookie season, leading all league rookie defensemen in goals (four) and points (12).  Three of those four goals recorded so far have been recorded on the power play.  Werenski’s 21:46 in ice time per game is second among rookie defensemen.  He will be coming into his first career game against Washington with points in nine of his 13 games so far.

1.  Columbus has the lowest shots per game in the league (26.9), but they have the second best shooting percentage (12.9 percent), trailing only the New York Rangers (13.9 percent).

2.  Doing the little things not so well… Columbus is 29^th in faceoff winning percentage (46.5 percent), ahead of only the Winnipeg Jets (45.0 percent). 

3.  The second period might matter in this game.  Columbus has the same goal differential as the Caps in the first periods of games so far (both teams are 16-8/plus-8), and they have similar third period goal differentials (Columbus is 10-13/minus-3, the Caps are 12-12/even).  But the Blue Jackets are plus-8 in the second period (17-9), while the Caps are minus-6 (7-13).

4.  No team has allowed opponents to score first fewer times than the Blue Jackets.  Only twice has Columbus allowed the first goal of a game.  Oddly enough, those instances came against the same opponent, the San Jose Sharks.  Columbus lost both games, 3-2 at home on October 15^th and 3-1 in San Jose on October 27^th.

5.  Possession doesn’t seem to be Columbus’ forte.  The Blue Jackets rank 29^th in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (46.17 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  They are 25^th on home ice (46.73 percent).

1.  If you are thinking Alex Ovechkin is off his goal scoring game, remember that he has seven goals in 14 games so far.  Through 14 games last season he had eight goals, and in 2014-2015 he had six goals through 14 games.  In both seasons he finished with at least 50 goals.

2.  The Caps have had the second fewest instances in the league of teams scoring first so far (three) and are 1-2-0 in those games.

3.  Marcus Johansson and Alex Ovechkin each have three game-winning goals.  The rest of the team has a combined three game-winning goals (T.J. Oshie, Jay Beagle, Daniel Winnik).

4.  The Caps have had balanced ice time among their skaters.  Only Brett Connolly, having played in just seven games, is averaging less than ten minutes of ice time per game (8:57). 

5.  The Caps continue to rank among the better teams in possession, sitting in eighth place in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (52.14 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  They also rank eighth in Corsi-for away from Verizon Center (51.77 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Cam Atkinson

While Cam Atkinson has had a productive start to the 2016-2017 season (4-8-12), he has been something of a one-trick pony so far.  Consider his last game, that against the St. Louis Blues.  The Blue Jackets won, 8-4, and Atkinson had four assists, three of them at even strength.  That brought his season total of even strength points to four (all assists).  Atkinson is 4-4-8 on the power play so far.  His four power play goals is tied for fifth in the league, and his eight power play points is tied for fourth.  He appears to be vulnerable as an even-strength player.  His personal Corsi-for at 5-on-5 is just 43.64 percent, and his minus-5 is tied for worst on the club.  Atkinson is 7-4-11, plus-4, in 13 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov is averaging more than three more minutes per game (19:24) than he did last season (16:02) and is less than a shift’s worth of time behind his career best average time on ice (19:36 in 2013-2014).  The increased ice time has not come with bigger offensive numbers; his 0-4-4 scoring line lagging behind last year’s pace (8-21-29 in 82 games).  However, he has been addressing the matter of responsibility in his own end.  Eight straight games now, Orlov has been an even or better skater (plus-7 overall).  He has had a bit of a penalty bug hit him, though, with four minor penalties in those eight games.  His scoring might be picking up, though.  He comes into this game with assists in two straight games after going seven games without a point.  Orlov is 0-2-2, minus-3, in seven career games against the Blue Jackets.

In the end…

This is a trap game of sorts for the Caps.  It is the last game of a road trip, and a bitter rival will be on tap in their return to Verizon Center on Wednesday night in a nationally televised game, the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Columbus is a team that certainly has the capacity to make the Caps pay if their attention wavers.  The game might hinge on a very productive and very efficient Columbus power play and an improving Capitals penalty kill, which is not a sentence we thought we would be typing a few weeks ago.  But if the Caps can take advantage of Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has allowed eight goals on 46 shots over his last two games (.826 save percentage), it could make for a successful end to the road trip.

Capitals 5 – Blue Jackets 3