The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 4: Stars at Capitals, October 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their two-game home stand on Tuesday night when they host the Dallas Stars at Capital One Arena.  The Caps will be hoping to earn a split and three of a possible four points on the home stand after dropping a 3-2 overtime decision to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night.

The Stars will be finishing a three-game road trip after dropping their season opener at home to the Boston Bruins, 2-1.  Dallas had stops in St. Louis and Detroit before coming to Washington, losing to the Blues, 3-2, and falling to the Red Wings, 4-3, to close a disappointing back-to-back set of games to start the season 0-3-0.

Dallas was, at best, an intermittent participant in the postseason in the decade leading up to last year, reaching the playoffs twice (2013-2014 and 2015-2016) and winning one postseason series (2015-2016).  Last season, the Stars wandered across the prairie through their first 48 games, going 23-21-4.  They closed much better, though, going 20-11-3 over their last 34 games to reach the postseason, where they upset the Nashville Predators in six games and took the eventual Cup champion St. Louis Blues to the brink of elimination before falling to the Blues in seven games in the second round.

The Stars had little in the area of elite goal scoring last season.  Only three skaters recorded more than 15 goals – Tyler Seguin (33), Alexander Radulov (29), and Jamie Benn (27).  For Seguin, it was his fifth 30-plus goal season in six seasons with the Stars, and it pushed him over the 200 goal mark with the Stars (206), the 11^th player in franchise history to reach the 200-goal mark with the club.  With 80 points last season, he became the 15^th player in team history to pass the 400-point mark with the club (464).  Among 117 skaters in team history to dress for at least 200 games with the club, Seguin is third in points per game (0.99), trailing only Dino Ciccarelli (1.08) and Brad Richards (1.03); and he is third in team history in goals per game (0.44), behind Ciccarelli (0.55) and Brian Bellows (0.45).  What was odd about last season for Seguin was how ineffective he was outside the friendly confines of the Central Division.  In 26 games against divisional opponents last season, Seguin was 19-16-35.  Outside the Central Division, though, he was just 14-31-45 in 56 games.  In 23 career games against the Caps, Seguin is 11-5-16, plus-5.

Victor Hedman has not done it.  P.K. Subban has not done it.  Neither Kris Letang nor John Carlson have done it.  But John Klingberg is one of six defensemen to have posted at least 40 points in each of the last five seasons before this one.  Not that he gets a lot of attention for his effort.  In those five seasons he received votes for the Norris Trophy as top defenseman, but he did not finish higher than sixth in the voting.  Only two defensemen in team history have recorded more 40-point seasons than Klingberg – Sergei Zubov (ten) and Craig Hartsburg (six).  He is one of only three defensemen in team history to have multiple 50-point seasons (two), trailing Hartsburg (four) and Zubov (six).  That Klingberg should be this productive is a bit of a surprise, he being a fifth round (131^st overall) pick in the 2010 Entry Draft and the 40^th defenseman taken in that draft.  Of the 39 defensemen taken ahead of him, 18 have not appeared in an NHL game, and only four have appeared in more games than Klingberg (370) – Radko Gudas (419), Erik Gudbranson (469), Justin Faulk (561), and Cam Fowler (622).  Klingberg has yet to record a point in three games, which is a bit odd, given that he had 11 points in 11 October games last season and has been a very productive early season player, going 10-26-36 in 45 career games played in October.  He is 0-8-8, plus-1, in nine career games against the Caps.

One question that the Stars might like an answer to sooner than later is whether Ben Bishop is truly an elite goalie or merely an intermittent star.  Three times in his career, Bishop was a Vezina Trophy finalist as the league’s best goalie (he finished second twice, including last season, and third once).  In the first two instances in which he was named a finalist, he followed up that season with somewhat of a drop-off.  After finishing third in Vezina voting in 2013-2014 with Tampa Bay (37-14-7, 2.23, .924, five shutouts), he went 40-13-5 for a loaded Lightning team in 2014-2015, but his goals against rose to 2.32, and his save percentage dropped to .916, and he did not receive any votes for the Vezina.  He finished second in the Vezina voting the following year after going 35-21-4, 2.06 (best in the league), .926, with six shutouts.  However, in his nex season, Bishop went 18-15-5, 2.54, .910, with one shutout split between Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Kings.  After going 27-15-2, 1.98, .934 (best in the league), with seven shutouts on his way to a second-place finish in the Vezina voting last season, the question will be if he can, at age 33 (he will turn 33 in November) put together consecutive top-notch seasons.  Bishop is 3-6-2, 3.41, .890 in 12 career appearances against the Capitals.

1.  The three losses in regulation to open the season is the first time since the team moved to Dallas that the Stars lost their first three games of the season in regulation.  The last time they opened the season with three straight losses was in 1988-1989, when the Minnesota North Stars dropped decisions to the St. Louis Blues, Montreal Canadiens, and Quebec Nordiques to start the season.

2.  Moving to Dallas sat well with the franchise since they made the move in 1993-1994.  Since then, the Stars have the third-best overall record in the league (562-296-70, with 65 ties), trailing only the Detroit Red Wings (604-247-92, with 50 ties) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (581-304-54, with 55 ties).

3.  Last season, the Stars dressed 14 defensemen over the course of the season, the most defensemen to dress for the club since the Stars dressed 14 defensemen for the 1999-2000 season.  The last time the club dressed more was when the Minnesota North Stars dressed 16 defensemen for the 1988-1989 season.

4.  Only the Calgary Flames were looser with the puck in the Western Conference than the Stars.  Dallas was credited with 1,029 giveaways last season to Calgary’s 1,189.

5.  The Stars had the worst shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 of any Western Conference playoff qualifier last season (48.32 percent).

1.  Jakub Vrana’s overtime goal is one of only three scored in the NHL through Sunday’s games and was the only one scored by a forward.  Carolina defensemen have the other two (Jake Gardiner and Jaccob Slavin).

2.  Through Sunday’s games, the Caps were one of five teams in the league whose power play was under 20 percent (18.2) and whose penalty kill was under 75 percent (71.4).  Columbus (16.7/66.7), Winnipeg (11.1/60.0), Ottawa (0.0/62.5), and New Jersey (0.0/50.0) were the others.

3.  Washington was second in the league in fewest shots allowed per game (25.3) through last weekend.  Only Buffalo was better (24.5).

4.  It is early, but the Caps are sixth in the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 through the first week of the season (56.72). The concern might be that they are 21^st in that category when trailing (42.31).

5.  Of the 18 skaters to dress so far for the Caps, only Carl Hagelin has been on the ice without a goal scored or a goal scored against through three games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Roope Hintz

The buzz with Roope Hintz started as far back as 2016.  It continued into last spring.   After posting five goals in 13 playoff games last spring, he is looked at in some quarters as a star in the making.  Not bad for a second round (49^th overall) pick in the 2015 Entry Draft, the ninth left winger taken in that draft. 

Hintz, who was 9-13-22, minus-11, in 58 regular season games last season as a rookie with the Stars, is living up to his part of the bargain in the early going, posting three goals in his first three games this season on only five shots.  It follows on a productive finish that Hintz had last season when he went 4-7-11 over his last 14 games. 

Hintz has size (6’3”/215) and has a scouting report that states, “[he] can play the role of scorer or playmaker; has killer instincts and a keen eye for scoring opportunities. Very high hockey-IQ and has incredible awareness on the ice; is able to play the puck creatively, all the while creating space for his adjoining teammates. Creates separation, not through physical play, but through outskating the opposition. His proactivity, recognizing and taking advantage of scoring chances, makes him a valuable teammate and offensive catalyst for whoever he plays with. A very good skater that is able to create chances through his speed. Possesses a hard, accurate release on his shot, as well as good hands and overall puckhandling ability. All-in-all, a prolific scoring threat that continuously plays with jump and provides energy for teammates.”   On a team that lacked offensive punch at times last season, his rapid development will be counted on to improve that level of production for the Stars this season.  In one career games against the Caps, Hintz is 0-1-1, minus-1.

Washington: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby has faced each of the other 30 teams in the NHL over his career, but against only one of them does he have a career goals against average over 4.00.  That would be against the Dallas Stars, against which he is 2-4-1, 4.02, .870 in eight career appearances.  Only twice in eight appearances has he allowed as few as two goals, and in one of those he entered the game in relief, playing the last 30 minutes in place of Jaroslav Halak and allowing two goals on 13 shots in a 5-0 loss to the Stars on April 1, 2014.  In two other appearances he was pulled early, in March 2015 after allowing four goals on 22 shots in 34 minutes in a 4-2 loss, and again in March 2017 after allowing three goals on 11 shots in another 4-2 loss.  Six times in eight appearances, Holtby’s save percentage was under .900.  If there is a silver lining here, it is in Holtby’s having earned wins in two of his last three appearances against Dallas, a 33-save effort in 4-3 overtime win in Dallas in December 2017, and a 24-save effort in a 4-3 win at Capital One Arena in March 2018.

Holtby is also fighting a career tendency to slow starts.  His .911 career save percentage in October is the second worst, by month, over his career (in February games he is .909).  That includes his .900 save percentage so far through two games to start this season (45 saves on 50 shots).  He also has allowed more shorthanded goals in October over his career (six) than he has in any other month.

In the end…

In its Dallas incarnation, the Stars have tended to employ head coaches with a defensive orientation – Ken Hitchcock, Dave Tippett, Lindy Ruff.  Those styles have not been easy for the Caps to solve.  Jim Montgomery, now in his second season in Dallas, seems more of a two way sort who, in alignment with how the league seems to be going, emphasizes quickness, speed, and pressure. 

 For the Caps, the chore will be to keep Dallas from dictating pace and to bend the pace to their own liking.  In this respect, the play of centers Nicklas Backstrom and the returning Evgeny Kuznetsov could be key, along with the ability of the defense to withstand a heavy forecheck.  But, it’s not as if the Caps have not seen this before.  It seems to describe how most teams try to play these days.

Capitals 3 – Stars 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 1

The Washington Capitals opened their regular season last week on an up note, earning points in all three games against the defending Stanley Cup champs, the team that employs their former coach, and the team that ended their season last spring.

Record: 2-0-1

The Capitals entered the week down a top line forward (Evgeny Kuznetsov on suspension), down a top pair defensemen (Michal Kempny to injury), and breaking in a brand new goaltender who had not yet dressed for an NHL game (Ilya Samsonov).  Even with the missing players, though, the Caps matched their first three game record of last season (2-0-1) and did so with a pair of wins on the road.  In fact, that 2-0-1 record matches their three-game start for each of the previous three seasons.  The blemish on the week’s record, the 3-2 overtime loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, was the first loss for the Caps in a home opener since they dropped a 2-1 Gimmick decision to the Montreal Canadiens to open the home portion of the 2014-2015 season.

Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.33/22nd)

One might say that seven goals in three games is a meager level of output.  Consider that the Caps opened the season against the top-ranked (New York Islanders), fifth-ranked (St. Louis Blues), and eighth-ranked (Carolina Hurricanes) scoring defenses from last season.  The Islanders swapped out their goaltender from that club (Robin Lehner), but Semyon Varlamov is a fine goaltender in his own right. 

As it was, the Caps filled the absence of center Evgeny Kuznetsov with effective winger production.  Six of the seven goals for the week were scored by wingers, T.J. Oshie and Jakub Vrana leading with two apiece (Alex Ovechkin and Garnet Hathaway had the others).  The Caps spread the point production around with four players recording three points (Oshie, Vrana, Lars Eller, and John Carlson).

As one might expect, Ovechkin led the club in shots on goal (14), and Jakub Vrana was quite assertive in that role as well (nine).  The surprise might have been Carl Hagelin tying with Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom with eight shots on goal.  Nic Dowd was the only Capital to finish the week without recording a shot on net.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.00/T-6th)

While the Caps faced three of the best scoring defenses in the league from last season, the three opponents were not among the top scoring offenses.  St. Louis finished 15^th in scoring offense last season, Carolina finished 16^th, and the New York Islanders finished 22^nd.  These are clubs the Caps should have had some success in defending, and by and large they did.  They held all three opponents under 30 shots on goal, a bit more noteworthy for having gone to overtime in two of the week’s games.  And, Carolina (28 shots against the Caps) led the league in shots on goal per game last season (34.4).

The Caps also dominated in an area in which they struggled last season.  Their shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 percentage was well over 50 percent in each of the three games – 57.38 percent to open the week in St. Louis, 59.21 percent against the Islanders, and 53.13 percent against Carolina.  Last season, Carolina (54.81 percent/2^nd) and St. Louis (51.50 percent/10^th) were top-ten teams in that statistical category.

If there was an odd part about the Caps’ defense for the week, it was that four of the six goals scored by opponents came from defensemen.  Jaccob Slavin and Jake Gardiner did it for Carolina, Devon Toews did it for the Islanders, and Alex Pietrangelo scored one for St. Louis.  The Caps did a better job of keeping big guns silent.  Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz were held without a point for St. Louis, Mathew Barzal and Anders Lee went without a point for the Islanders, and Sebastian Aho and Nino Niederreiter failed to record a point for Carolina.

Goaltending: 1.93 / .921 (season:  1.93/ .921)

Two goalies played, and the Caps got great play from one and solid play from the other.  The twist on this is that the great and solid came from different goalies than one might have expected.  Braden Holtby was solid in two starts for the Caps, stopping 20 of 22 shots in the 3-2 Opening Night win in St. Louis and turning aside 25 of 28 shots against Carolina in the 3-2 overtime loss on Saturday night.

For Holtby the start was encouraging.  Last season he opened with a 25-save shutout of Boston in the season opener, but then he allowed seven goals on 41 shots in a 7-6 overtime loss to Pittsburgh in his second outing.  The previous year, it was in his first game that Holtby was shaky, allowing four goals on 32 shots in an extra time win over the Ottawa Sentaors.  Holtby has not been a particularly effective October goaltender in the past.  Before this season he had a good win-loss record (25-16-3), but his goals against average (2.62) and save percentage (.911) were not particularly impressive.

Ilya Samsonov was a different story.  Before Friday night in New York, Samsonov had a grand total of 37 regular season and five postseason games played in North America as a professional, all with the Hershey Bears last season.  Against the Islanders in his NHL debut, he stopped eight of nine first period shots, and then he slammed the door, stopping all 17 shots he faced over the final two periods.  He was the first Capitals goalie to win in his NHL debut start on the road since Michal Neuvirth stopped 31 of 32 shots in a 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Valentine’s Day 2009, a game perhaps better known as the one in which defenseman Mike Green set an NHL record for consecutive games with a goal by a defenseman.

Power Play: 2-for-11/18.2 percent (season: 18.2 percent/17th)

Not a good week for the Capitals’ man advantage.  Carolina and St. Louis both were top-ten penalty killing teams last season (eighth and ninth, respectively), but going 1-for nine against them (0-for-6 against Carolina) was a tough one – or two – take.  Part of the problem could be attributed to the absence of Evgeny Kuznetsov, who had 23 power play points for the team last season (fourth).

The Caps just did not get shots to the net, particularly against Carolina.  For the week, the Caps shot 2-for-14 with the man advantage (14.3 percent), but they did so over 20:14 of power play ice time, a poor shots-to-minutes result (0.69).  Against Carolina, the Caps had seven shots on six power plays in 11:26 of man advantage ice time.

The unflattering way to put the power play for the week was “messed up.”  IN the two games in which the Caps did record a power play goal, against St. Louis and the Islanders, Alex Ovechkin did not record a power play shot on goal.  In being shut out by the Hurricanes on the power play, he did have two shots, and they also got shots from John Carlson (two) and Nicklas Backstrom (one), players one would want getting those opportunities.  The killer, though, might have been in the overtime session against Carolina in which the Caps did get two power play shots (Carlson and T.J. Oshie) but could not convert.  As often seems to happen, that just made a loss in the extra session seem inevitable.

Penalty Killing: 5-for-7/71.4 percent (season: 71.4 percent/T-19th)

The Caps were not an specially efficient penalty killing team last season (78.9 percent/24^th) and they started the new season in the same rut.  Thank heavens for small population sizes (in this instance, seven shorthanded situations).  And it was not as if they faced stout power plays overall.  True, St. Louis did finish 10 in power play efficiency last season (21.1 percent), and they did get a goal.  But Carolina was a bottom half team (17.8 percent/20th), and the Islanders were a bottom three team (14.5 percent/29^th).

The Caps did not have a bad week in terms of limiting shots, allowing 10 shots in 11:38 of shorthanded ice time.  The silver lining for the penalty kill was in the opportunities.  Last season, the Caps allowed the fifth-highest power play chances per game (3.18). To hold three opponents to 2.33 chances per game, even with the four allowed to Carolina, is something on which they might build.

Faceoffs: 92-for-176 / 52.3 percent (season: 52.3 percent/7th)

Washington had a good week in the circle, going over 50 percent in two of the three games and doing the same for the week in the offensive and defensive ends.  But frankly, they should have, and in some respect it was an odd week.  Last season, the Hurricanes and Islanders were bottom third teams in faceoff efficiency (24^th and 29^th, respectively).  However, while the Caps were a quite respectable 36-for 65 against Carolina (55.4 percent), they were just 26-for-50 (52.0 percent) against the Islanders.  Against last year’s sixth-ranked team in faceoffs, the Blues, the Caps were 30-for-61 (49.2 percent), not a bad result against a strong opponent on their ice.

The Caps were good in the ends, going 38-for-71 in the offensive end (53.5 percent) and 32-for-57 in the defensive end (56.1 percent).  Individually, four Caps took at least ten draws for the week, and three of them finished over 50 percent – Nicklas Backstrom (27-for-51/52.9 percent), Chandler Stephenson (24-for-43/55.8 percent), and Lars Eller (24-for-40/60.0 percent).

Goals by Period:

Strong starts, weak finishes, with one exception.  The Caps split six goals scored in regulation equally between the first and second periods.  The saved their week early with an overtime goal in the opener.  That was offset by three first period goals scored by opponents (two by St. Louis, one by the Islanders), but it was the third period/overtime that kept the Caps from a perfect week, Carolina scoring a pair of third period goals and the goal in overtime that left the Caps with their only blemish on the week.

Year-over-Year:

The record is the same over the first three games (2-0-1), but other than that the opening to this season looks almost nothing like the opening to last season.  The Caps opened last season lighting up the scoreboard like the National Christmas Tree, while this year they opened in their first three games scoring barely a third of the total (six) with which they opened last year (18). The power play stormed out to a 50 percent rating last year, far better than 18.2 percent the Caps started this season with.  Grittership numbers opened better last season – more hits, more blocked shots, more takeaways, fewer giveaways.  So far, shots allowed, faceoff efficiency, and penalties look better in this year’s start.

In the end…

This was not the easiest of weeks with which to open the schedule.  The Stanley Cup champions on banner-raising night, facing their former coach in their season/home opener, and skating against the team that ended their season last year.  Coming out of it with five points isn’t a bad outcome, although failing to close things out against Carolina will leave a bad after taste for the week.

It will not get easier for the Caps in Week 2, with a different set of forces acting on them.  In this case, it will be playing two teams (the Dallas Stars home and away, wrapped around a game in Nashville against the Predators) that have given them fits over the years.  But the Caps will be welcoming back Evgeny Kuznetsov, and that could settle the team in the offensive end a bit.  They’ll need to be firing on all cylinders, though, if they are to end Week 2 as successfully as they did Week 1.

Three Stars:

1. First Star: Ilya Samsonov (1-0-0, 1.00, .962 in NHL debut)
2. Second Star: Jakub Vrana (2-1-3, plus-2, 9 shots on goal, overtime goal, game-winning goal)
3. Third Star: T.J. Oshie (2-1-3, plus-2, 8 shots on goal, power play goal, 7 hits)

Captain rates the week...

Three puppers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Home Opener: Hurricanes at Capitals, October 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals raise the curtain on the home portion of their 2019-2020 season on Saturday night when they host the Carolina Hurricanes at Capital One Arena.  The game will not have the hoopla that surrounded last year’s home opener, when the Caps raised their Stanley Cup championship banner to the rafters, but there is no small amount of drama attached to this game.  The Capitals saw their season end last spring on this ice sheet against this opponent when the Hurricanes scored in double-overtime of Game 7 to end the Caps’ reign as Stanley Cup champs.

Carolina has had a hard time of it since they won the Stanley Cup in 2005-2006.  Before last season, the Hurricanes qualified for the playoffs once in 12 seasons after their Cup run (2008-2009, losing in the conference final).  Their 46 wins last season were more than they had in any season since that Stanley Cup winning year (52).  Even with last year’s improvement, their 2005-2006 season remains the last time they won a division title (Southeast).

Things are looking up for the ‘Canes, though.  Five of the top-ten point getters from last season are age 25 or younger, a group led by 22-year old Sebastian Aho, who went 30-53-83 last year.  Aho’s production curve has been impressive, to say the least.  He was 24-25-49 in 82 games as a rookie in 2016-2017 and 29-36-65 in 78 games in 2017-2018 before taking another big leap last season.  Only five players in franchise history have more points over their first three NHL seasons than Aho (197), and only one of them (Eric Staal with 201 points over his first three seasons) posted better numbers since the mid-1980’s.

If there was a blemish in Aho’s 2018-2019 numbers, it was the disparity between home and road production.  He was 19-30-49, plus-21, in 41 home games; but he was a less productive 11-23-34, plus-4, in 41 road contests.  Part of the problem was that his road scoring dried up down the stretch.  After putting together a solid run of 5-12-17, plus-7, over a 13-game stretch on the road, Aho went without a point in his last six road contests and had a minus-3 rating.  A sign of how productive he has been in his early career, though, Aho almost certainly will finish this season among the top-20 point getters in team history (he needs 44 points to pass Dave Babych for 20^th place), and with a big goal scoring year he could find himself in the top-15 in team history in goals (he needs 37 to pass Ray Whitney for 15^th place, unless Jordan Staal gets there first with 23 goals).  Aho is 8-9-17, even, in 12 career games against the Caps.

Jaccob Slavin is another of the 25-and-under brigade, and he returns as the ice time leader among defensemen, averaging 23:02 while dressing for all 82 games last season.  He has come a long way from being a fourth round (120^th overall) pick in the 2012 Entry Draft, the 41^st of 77 defensemen taken in that draft.  As it is, he is tenth in his draft class in games played among defensemen (309), 12^th in goals scored (23), eighth in assists (92), ninth in points (115), and ninth in plus-minus rating (plus-25). 

He had a solid year last season, finishing third in goals scored among Hurricane defensemen (eight), second in assists (23) and third in points (31).  He was also fourth in hits (70), and first in both blocked shots (133) and takeaways (86) among defensemen.  And when he put up points, Carolina was successful.  The Hurricanes were 21-4-2 in the 27 games in which he recorded at least one point.  What was a negative indicator of success was when he was more physically engaged.  In the 19 games in which he was credited with two or more hits, Carolina was just 9-10-0.  In 15 career games against the Caps, Slavin is 0-2-2, minus-2.

For better or worse, Petr Mrazek is Carolina’ answer in goal.  After signing a one-year/$1.5 million deal in July 2018 with the Hurricanes, Mrazek gave the Hurricanes solid minutes in goal, when he was in goal.  His 2.39 goals against average was sixth in the league among 37 goalies with at least 2,000 minutes, and his save percentage of .914 was 14^th.  To these he added four shutouts.  They were his best numbers since he was 2.33, .921, with four shutouts for the Detroit Red Wings in 2015-2016 in 49 games. 

Those games are perhaps an issue.  Last season he started 40 games for Carolina, while Curtis McIlhinney started 33.  Mrazek has never started more the 49 games in a season in his seven years in the league.  Nevertheless, Carolina saw fit to re-sign him to a two-year/$6.25 million deal last July.  He will be backstopped by James Reimer, himself a veteran with considerable experience (338 games for three teams), but another goalie who has never carried a heavy workload (44 starts being his high in 2017-2018 with Florida). It would not be surprising to see the Hurricanes split time between these goalies in a similar fashion to last year’s split in games.  Mrazek is 3-5-2, 2.52, .917, with one shutout in ten career appearances against Washington.

1.  The Carolina Hurricanes are quite different from their previous incarnation, the Hartford Whalers, in one respect.  There have been 39 franchises to skate in the NHL since Hartford came into the league in the 1979-1980 season, since then, the Whalers stand third among them in penalty minutes per game (20:52).  Since moving to Carolina, though, the Hurricanes rank 36^th of those 29 teams with 10:54 in penalty minutes per game.

2.  Carolina had a talent for drawing penalties for man advantages last season.  They were tied for fifth in the league in power play opportunities on the road (128, with Florida).

3.  Only two teams last season were credited with fewer blocked shots than the Hurricanes (1,044) – Calgary (1,033) and Buffalo (1,003).  They just took the puck away; their 889 takeaways were second in the league (Vegas: 903).

4.  The Hurricanes had the worst shooting percentage in the Metropolitan Division last season (8.6) and sixth-worst in the league.

5.  Carolina had the best shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in the East last season (54.81) and second-best in the league (San Jose: 54.87).

1.  The Caps are playing their home opener in Game 3 of the season, the latest they have had their home opener since they opened at home in Game 3 of the regular season schedule in 1999-2000. They tied the Los Angeles Kings, 2-2, in that one.  The last time the Caps started their home season later on the schedule was in Game 4 in 1994-1995 (under an abbreviated schedule due to a lockout), a 5-2 in over the New York Islanders.   The Caps have never started their home schedule later than Game 3 in a full-season’s regular season schedule.

2.  Alex Ovechkin is tied with Martin St. Louis for most career points against Carolina (91).  The odd part of it is that he has 40 goals in 77 career games against the franchise (most all-time against Carolina), but he also has 51 assists (third, trailing St. Louis (53) and Jaromir Jagr (54)).

3.  Washington was very efficient at both ends of the ice at home last season.  Their shooting-plus-save percentage (1028) was second-best in the league (Tampa Bay: 1036) – fourth in shooting percentage (9.5) and second in save percentage (.933), the only team to finish in the top five in both categories at home last season.

4.  The Caps are only of only two teams in the league to have failed to record a penalty shot goal on home ice over the last eight seasons.  The New York Rangers are the other.  Among teams playing over all eight years (Vegas not included), only Anaheim had fewer penalty shot attempts on home ice (three) than the Caps (four).

5.  Since the league went to a five minute overtime in 2005-2006, no team in the league has more overtime goals on home ice than the Caps (44).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Brock McGinn

Left-winger Brock McGinn was not among the top-ten point getters for Carolina last season, but he is yet another in the 25-and-under crowd sprinkled through the Hurricanes’ roster (he is 25).  His starring moment last season, however, came in the postseason.  He became only the second player in team history to score a game-winning goal in overtime of Game 7 of a playoff series.  That’s right, for Caps fans who don’t remember, he was the player redirecting a centering feed behind Braden Holtby to send the Caps home last spring and Carolina to the second round (Scott Walker was the other Hurricane to do it, in Game 7 of the 2009 Eastern Conference semi-finals against Boston).  The odd part of McGinn’s game-winning, series-clinching goal was that he was without a game-winning goal in 82 games of the regular season.

More generally, McGinn has established himself as a player who can provide reliable minutes in a support role.  He had something of an outlier in his first full season, scoring 16 goals in 80 games (0.20 per game), but otherwise averaged about 0.12 goals per game over his other three seasons, about nine goals per 82 games played.  He was more highly ranked among Carolina forwards last season in the “grittership” categories, finishing third among forwards in credited hits (137), third in blocked shots (38), fourth in takeaways (54), and doing it while averaging only 14 seconds of penalty time per game over 82 games.  McGinn is 1-0-1, minus-5, in 13 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: John Carlson

It should not be all that big a surprise that defenseman John Carlson led the Caps in points against Carolina last season (2-5-7).  He has more career goals against the Hurricanes (seven, tied with Pittsburgh) than he has against any other team in the league.  Ditto for total points against the Hurricanes (28).  Those seven points he had against Carolina last season were matched only by the seven he had against the New York Rangers.

Carlson was among the top scoring defensemen in the league last season (fourth with 70 points), and he was not particular about where he did his scoring.  He a Morgan Rielly were the only defensemen in the league last season to finish top-five in points at home (Carlson was tied for fifth at 34 points) and on the road (Carlson was tied for second with Rielly at 36 points).  He recorded points against 26 of the other 30 teams in the league, drawing a blank only against Arizona (two games), Buffalo (three games), Dallas  (two games), and Minnesota (two games).

When Carlson took the ice in the season opener in St. Louis, he broke a tie with Rod Langway for second place in seasons played for the Capitals (now with 12). He trails only Calle Johansson (15 seasons with the Caps) on the all-time franchise list, and he is only the tenth skater in team history to skate 12 seasons for the Caps.  He will soon become the third defenseman in Caps history to play in 700 games for the club (Langway had 726; Johansson had 983).  What he will do on Saturday night in taking the ice is add to his career high in games played against an opponent when he faces Carolina for the 43^rd time in his career.  Carlson is 7-21-28, plus-7 in 42 career games against the Hurricanes.

In the end…

The Caps have dominated the Hurricanes in Washington recently, going 8-2-0 against them over the last five seasons at Capital One Arena, outscoring them, 34-17, and recording seven power play goals to two for Carolina.  But the last game is what sticks in one’s mind, a season-ending loss on this ice sheet.  There is enough history between these teams, having been division rivals going back to the Southeast Division days, to make this a hard-fought matchup.  That last game might be expected to give the Caps just a little more incentive to make Carolina’s night difficult in the home opener.

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: Capitals at Islanders, October 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their brief road trip to start the 2019-2020 season with a visit to Nassau Coliseum on Friday night, where they will face the New York Islanders in their season and home opener.  The Isles are coming off a remarkably successful, as well as unexpected season under first-year coach Barry Trotz.  The Isles, once among the elite franchises in the league, had descended into a mediocrity over the years bordering on irrelevance.  In 25 seasons before Trotz took over, the Islanders were 100 regulation losses under .500 (777-877-142, with 106 ties).  They reached the postseason eight times in those 25 seasons and reached the second round of the playoffs only once (2016).  They vacated a dilapidated structure in Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale in search of bigger crowds in Barclays Center in Brooklyn, and when that didn’t turn out as hoped, they made plans to return to their roots, if only temporarily.

Last season, the Islanders pushed the Capitals to the last weekend of the season before finishing second in the Metropolitan Division.  They did not do it with offense.  Anders Lee led the team in goal scoring (28), one of only three players with 20 or more goals for the Isles last season (Brock Nelson (25) and Casey Cizikas (20) the others).  Lee has had a bit of an up-and-down record as a goal scorer in his five full seasons with the club, going 25-15-34-40-28.  Nevertheless, Lee is among the top-15 goal scorers in Islander history (152/15^th) and with a big season this year could jump into the top dozen (he needs 33 goals to pass Billy Harris for 12^th place). 

Last season, Lee was a streaky goal scorer.  Three goal scoring streaks of at least three games accounted for 11 of his 28 goals, and in addition he had a three-goals-in-four-games run to bring the total to half his goal output.  Conversely, he had four streaks of five or more games without a goal, including an 11-game drought from January 18^th through February 14^th.  To that add the four-game streak without a goal to end the regular season, and there were some dark spots on his resume.  It was a cold streak in the postseason that hurt the Islanders last spring; Lee had one goal on 20 shots in eight games.  Lee is 7-3-10, minus-6, in 22 career games against Washington.

Mathew Barzal led the team in points last season (62), but that total ranked only in a tie for 67^th place league-wide (with Florida defenseman Keith Yandle).  And, 23 teams had point leaders with more points than Barzal.  Had Mark Stone not been traded from Ottawa to Las Vegas, that number would be 24 (Stone had 62 points with Ottawa). 

As for Barzal’s season, it would be hard to say a 62-point season for a 20-year old second year player was a “sophomore slump,” but it was a significant drop from the 85 points he posted as a rookie, a total good enough for him to win the Calder Trophy as top rookie in 2017-2018. It was a case of a weak finish for Barzal last season.  He was 17-33-50 over his first 58 games, a dropoff from his rookie pace, but not alarmingly so.  However, in his last 24 games he was just 1-11-12 with an anemic 2.7 percent shooting percentage, and half of his points came in three two-point games in that stretch run.  In nine career games against the Capitals, Barzal is 1-4-5, minus-4.

The Islanders did not get elite level scoring from their defense last season, but they did get balanced contributions on offense.  Six defensemen finished the season with at least 18 points, a group led by Ryan Pulock (9-28-37, plus-21).  Pulock was part of a 2013 draft class that was deep in defensemen with the likes of Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Josh Morrisey taken ahead of him, and even Nikita Zadorov, Shea Theodore taken behind him in the first round.  The 15^th overall pick of that draft completed his second full season in the NHL last year, and in addition to leading the blueliners in goals (nine), assists (28), and points (37); he led the defense in ice time (22:22 per game), shots on goal (180), game-winning goals (three, equal to the combined total of the rest of the defense), power play goals (three), and was one of two Islander defensemen to appear in every game (Nick Leddy was the other). 

Pulock is another of those Islander players who can make a surprising leap up the franchise record ladder.  With 35 points this season, he would pass Dave Langevin (107 points) and into the top-20 all-time in career points for Islander defensemen.  In nine career games against Washington, Pulock is 1-4-5, even.

 

 1.  The 48 games that the Islanders won last season was their highest win total since the 1983-1984 season, when they won 50 games and reached the Stanley Cup final for the fifth straight season.  Their run of four straight Cups was ended by the Edmonton Oilers in five games.

2.  Only two of the top 17 goal scorers in Islander history played after the 2004-2005 lockout.  As noted, Anders Lee is 15^th with 152 goals from 2012-2019.  John Tavares is the other one, recording 272 goals from 2009-2018.

3.  No playoff team last season had a worse shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 than the Islanders (47.85 percent/26^th). 

4.  Their poor shot attempt numbers aside, New York still managed to come out on top in close games.  They tied for the fourth-best record in the league in one-goal decisions (.594, with the Caps).

5.  Another manifestation of shooting not having much of an effect on Islander results, no team had more wins last season when out-shot by opponents than the Isles (31).

1.  With one point against the Islanders, Alex Ovechkin will have third place to himself in career points by a Capital against the Islanders.  He is currently tied with Calle Johansson and Bengt-Ake Gustafsson (54 points) and trails Peter Bondra and Michal Pivonka (62 points apiece).

2.  Ovechkin is the only active Capital with at least one overtime goal against the Islanders.  He has five.

3.  Of 389 skaters to dress for the Caps against the Islanders all-time, only two – Michael Nylander and Hartland Monahan – were awarded penalty shots against the Islanders.  Neither were successful on their only attempts.

4.  The Caps were among the most penalized teams in the league last year in one respect.  They had 31 games in which they were hit with ten or more penalty minutes, tied for seventh with the New Jersey Devils.  Four Metro teams (Rangers: 33; Flyers: 33; Devils: 31; and Capitals: 31) were in the top-eight (none of the Caps’ instances were against the Islanders).  If you are wondering, Tampa Bay led the league (35).

5.  The Islanders are the only Metropolitan Division team against which Braden Holtby has not recorded a shutout in his career.  In fact, the Caps have shut out the Islanders since February 7, 2003 (a 3-0 win in Washington) and have not shut out the Islanders in New York since April 13, 1998 (2-0 win).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Semyon Varlamov

It has been more than 13 years since goaltender Semyon Varlamov was taken by the Capitals with the 23^rd overall pick in the 2006 Entry Draft.  It would end up being a draft that for goaltenders might be described as “enigmatic” There was Jonathan Bernier, the first goalie taken in that draft (11^th overall by Los Angeles), who has 324 career appearances in the league, but who has compiled them with five different teams, four in the last four seasons (Toronto, Anaheim, Colorado, and Detroit).  There is Steve Mason (3^rd round/69^th overall), who won the Calder Trophy in 2008-2009 as the league’s top rookie, in part on a league leading ten shutouts (one of only nine goalies in league history to record ten or more shutouts as a rookie and the first to do it in almost 40 years).  There was Michal Neuvirth, also selected by the Caps and with whom Varlamov battled for the number one spot, who ended up playing with four teams and would endure an injury-riddled career.

Varlamov played parts of three seasons in Washington, never appearing in more than 27 games in any of those seasons, before being traded to Colorado in July 2011 for a first and second round draft pick in 2012.  That first rounder would be used to draft Filip Forsberg.  We’ll just set that matter aside.  Varlamov played eight seasons in Colorado, and at the end of last season he was second in career games played in goal for the franchise (389, trailing only Patrick Roy with 478), second in wins (183, to Roy’s 262), second in save percentage (.915, to Roy’s .918; minimum: 50 games played), third in goals against average (2.72; minimum: 50 games), and second in shutouts (21, to Roy’s 37).  Then, last July, he signed a four-year/$20.0 million contract with the Islanders as an unrestricted free agent.

Varlamov takes over for Robin Lehner, now of the Chicago Blackhawks, who won the Jennings Trophy last season (with Thomas Greiss) for fewest goals scored against and who finished third in Vezina Trophy voting.  Varlamov is not unfamiliar with postseason recognition; he finished second in Vezina Trophy voting in 2013-2014 after leading the league in wins (41) and fourth in Hart Trophy voting.  What he has not done is appear in the postseason since that 2013-2014 season, and he bears a considerable burden in ensuring that the Islanders make a return trip.  Varlamov is 3-4-1, 2.50, .933, in eight career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Among players active with the Caps, Alex Ovechkin is a career point-a-game player against the Islanders (54 points in 54 games).  So is Nicklas Backstrom (43 points in 43 games).  Although he has played in fewer games, T.J. Oshie is not far behind (11 points in 13 games).  Among active Caps, only Backstrom has a better plus-minus rating (plus-13) against the Islanders than Oshie (plus-9).

That point-per-game theme is something Oshie is also carrying over from last season.  In the 42 games he played in the 2019 portion of last season, he was 14-24-38, which was enough to propel him to 54 points, the fifth season in his last six that he topped 50 points and the fourth time in that span he passed the 20-goal mark (25). 

How Oshie starts the season will be something that Caps fans will be watching closely, given how his season ended, with a broken clavicle suffered in Game 4 of the opening round playoff series against Carolina last spring.  The Caps lost that Game 4 and two of the next three games to head for the exits earlier than planned.

Oshie is not always thought of as part of the “core” that includes homegrown types such as Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson, and Braden Holtby.  But in his four years in Washington, Oshie is second to Ovechkin in goals scored (102 to 183), fifth in assists (106), fifth in points (208), second among returning Caps in plus-minus rating (plus-51, second to Kuznetsov’s plus-55), fourth in game-winning goals (16), and tops among returning Caps in shooting percentage (17.1).  This despite missing 37 games over those four seasons (seventh in games played: 291).  In 22 career games against the Islanders, Oshie is 10-13-23, plus-10.

In the end…

The Capitals are a known quantity as the season starts with a winning pedigree in recent years, although the variable is now the backup goaltending situation and whether the new backup – Ilya Samsonov – gets the call in the front end of a back-to-back set of games.

Meanwhile, the Islanders are more of an “on the one hand, on the other” sort of team.  On the one hand, they lost a Vezina Trophy finalist in goal, but on the other they replaced him with a former Vezina finalist.  On the one hand, the Islanders return their top six goal scorers, but on the other that group totaled only 128 goals (by comparison, the top six Caps goal scorers last season had 166 goals).  On the one hand, this was an awful possession team by playoff standards, but on the other they won often.  That leaves us with this… on the one hand, this will be a competitive game, but on the other, well, you know who will win.

Capitals 3 – Islanders 1

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Opening Night: Capitals 3 - Blues 2 (OT)

The Washington Capitals opened their 2019-2020 season on Wednesday night, visiting the St. Louis Blues in a matchup of the last two Stanley Cup champions.  After a fast start for the home team, the Caps clawed their way back to tie the game in the second period before putting it away mid-way through overtime to start the season on a high note.

First Period

Two problems the Caps had last season – early goals and penalty killing – rose up and bit them in the behind in the first period.  St. Louis scored on their first shot of the new season, Sammy Blais tapping in a centering feed from David Perron past goalie Braden Holtby’s blocker 53 seconds into the game.  Barely seven minutes later, on their first power play shot of the season, Alex Pietrangelo made it 2-0, one timing a feed from Justin Faulk from the left wing circle past Holtby’s glove on the far side.

Late in the first frame, Alex Ovechkin halved the lead on his first shot on goal of the season, taking a pass from John Carlson, pulling the puck past defenseman Jay Bouwmeester, and after faking a drive off his forehand, snapped the puck past goalie Jordan Binnington’s right pad at the 15:37 mark.

-- St. Louis held a 7-5 edge in shots on goal and a 14-10 edge in shot attempts.

-- Lars Eller was the only Capital with two shots on goal; Ovechkin had three shot attempts (shot, missed shot, blocked shot).

-- Nicklas Backstrom won his first five faceoffs but finished the period 5-for-7; the Caps were 10-for-14 overall

-- It seemed to be a bigger hitting game than the 12-9 edge in hits the Caps had.

-- John Carlson had a team high ten shifts and 8:43 in ice time.

Second Period

The Caps killed off an early penalty, and then they had a chance to tie the game, but Nicklas Backstrom ringed the post just over four minutes into the period.  Less than two minutes later, Lars Eller and Jakub Vrana both had chances on the same 2-on-1 rush, to no avail, both players missing the net.

The Caps did get the equalizer in the 13^th minute of the period when, on a power play, Dmitry Orlov one-timed a feed from Nick Jensen from the right point that seemed to knuckle on Binnington and eluded him on the near side.  That would be the only scoring of the period.

-- The Caps out-shot the Blues, 15-8, in the period and out-attempted them, 23-12.

-- Alex Ovechkin had four shot attempts in the period (one on goal, three blocked).

-- Eleven of 18 skaters were credited with at least one hit through two periods.

-- Chandler Stephenson was 5-for-6 on draws through two periods.

-- John Carlson finished the period with 18 shifts for the night, one more than Dmitry Orlov.

Third Period

Many chances, many saves, no scoring.

Overtime

Jakub Vrana put a fork in this one in the third minute of the extra session.  He started the game-ending play by circling out of the right wing corner with the puck and feeding John Carlson between the tops of the circles.  Carlson curled to the left point and fed the puck back to Vrana at the top of the right wing circle.  Vrana crossed in front of T.J. Oshie, moving right to left, and a lane opened up on the left side.  From the edge of the left wing circle he snapped a shot that Binnington got a piece of, but not enough to keep it from sneaking under the crossbar on the far side to send the Caps off as winners.

Other Stuff...

-- The win gave the Caps points in six straight season openers, going 4-0-2, two of the wins coming in extra time.  The other one was a Gimmick win against Ottawa to open the 2017-2018 season.  That season ended well.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s first period goal gave him goals in 500 career NHL games.  He is the 13th player since 1979-1980 to reach 500 games with at least one goal scored. 

-- Lars Eller had a pair of assists.  It was his 19^th multi-point game as a Capital, tying Justin Williams and Joel Ward for 67^th place on the all-time franchise list.  It was Eller’s third straight season recording at least one point in a season opener.

-- Ovechkin had 16 shot attempts, five on goal (seven blocked, four misses).

-- Washington finished with 58 shot attempts overall to 36 for St. Louis and out-shot them, 34-22.

-- John Carlson skated a team-high 29 shifts and 26:30 in ice time.

-- The new guys up front – Richard Panik, Brendan Leipsic, Garnet Hathaway – no shots on goal among them.

-- Dmitry Orlov scored a goal in a season opener for the first time in his career.  Last year, he went his first 16 games without a goal.

-- Braden Holtby allowed goals on two of the first three shots he faced, but then he slammed the door, stopping the last 19 shots he faced.

-- The Caps allowed 22 shots on goal, their lowest in a season opener on the road since allowing 20 against in Boston against the Bruins in a 4-1 win on October 1, 2009.

In the end…

The Caps were missing a top line forward (Evgeny Kuznetsov) and a top pair defenseman (Michal Kempny) and still went into the arena of the Stanley Cup champs on their banner-raising night and scratched out a win.  If you have a problem with that, maybe set your bar a little lower.  This could have ended ugly with the start the Caps had, but this is a veteran team, and this is what veteran teams can do when they shut out the noise and just play their game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Opening Night: Capitals at Blues, October 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take the ice on Wednesday night in their 45^th season opener, visiting the Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues.  It is the third season in the last four in which the Caps will play after a banner raising in a season opener – 2016-2017 in Pittsburgh, 2018-2019 for their own banner raising, and Wednesday in St. Louis for the Blues’ celebration.

The team that the Caps will face on Opening Night was a very different team ending the season than it was starting it last year.  The Blues started the season slowly, going 2-4-3 in their first nine games, and when the record reached 7-9-3 in mid-November, the team relieved head coach Mike Yeo of his duties and turned control over to Craig Berube.  The ex-Capital did have some head coaching experience, taking over an 0-3-0 Philadelphia Flyers team in 2013-2014 and coaching the club for the remainder of that season and the following one, posting a 75-58-28 record over 161 games, plus a first round seven-game playoff exit in 2013-2014. 

Berube did not start particularly well with a record of 10-11-1 over his first 22 games. However, starting with a 4-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens that started the team’s first three-game winning streak of the season, the Blues closed with a 28-8-5 record over the last half of their regular season schedule, the best record in the league over that stretch. 

One player who took off over the second half of the season for the Blues was winger Vladimir Tarasenko.  After a somewhat lackluster first half in which he went 12-12-24, minus-14, in 40 games, he was 21-23-44, plus-22 in 36 games played in the second half.  He had points in 26 of those last 36 games, 14 of them multi-point games.  Six of those multi-point games came in his last dozen contests, including his last three to close the regular season.  Tarasenko has been a thorn in the Caps’ sides, going 8-2-10, plus-8, in ten career games against Washington.

If Tarasenko dominated the scoring for the Blues in the second half from a forward position, St. Louis got balance from their defensemen.  Three blueliners played the last half of the schedule posting more than 15 points apiece.  Alex Pietrangelo led the group with an 8-18-26, plus-8 scoring line in 41 games in the second half.  Pietrangelo is one of those players who always seems to lurk a level below those considered “elite” at his position, always putting up solid, if not “Norris-worthy” numbers.  In nine full seasons with the Blues (he saw limited action in his first two seasons), Pietrangelo has never averaged less than a half-point per game.  He, Dustin Byfuglien, and Keith Yandle are the only defensemen to have done so in each of the last nine seasons (minimum: 40 games per season).  Over those nine seasons, he is in the top-ten among all NHL defensemen in goals (ninth: 92), assists (tenth: 303), points (ninth: 395), and game-winning goals (fifth: 22).  While he has received votes for the Norris Trophy in seven of the last nine years, he has never been a finalist, his highest finish being fourth in 2011-2012.  In 14 career games against the Caps, Pietrangelo is 2-6-8, plus-2.

1.  The Blues reached the Stanley Cup final in each of their first three seasons in the league: 1967-68 through 1969-1970.  Those were years in which the newly expanded NHL had two divisions, one comprised of Original Six clubs and the other made up the six expansion teams.  After those first three seasons, the Blues did not reach the Stanley Cup final until doing so, and winning, last season.

2.  Over the ten seasons over which the NHL has data on shot attempts, St. Louis has the fifth-best shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 on home ice (53.12 percent).  In those ten seasons, the Blues have never finished a season overall under 50 percent.

3.  With two points in this game Alex Pietrangelo would become the 12^th player in Blues history to record 400 points with the club.

4.  St. Louis was one of eight teams to win three games in the Gimmick on home ice last season.

5.  Only four teams in the league last season allowed fewer power play opportunities on home ice than the Blues (107): New York Islanders (103), Buffalo Sabres (102), Columbus Blue Jackets (93), and the Toronto Maple Leafs (92).

 

1.  When the Caps lost to the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round of the playoffs last spring, it was their earliest exit from a postseason for which they qualified since bowing out in the first round in 2012-2013 to the New York Rangers. In five of the last six instances in which the Caps were eliminated from the playoffs, they suffered defeat in seven games.

2.  Last season was the fourth in 14 seasons since 2005-2006 that the team finished under 80 percent in penalty killing (78.9 percent) and the first time over a full 82-game schedule since 2009-2010 (78.8 percent).  They were at 77.9 percent in the 48-game 2012-2013 season.

3.  Last year’s Caps were not the offensive juggernaut of the 2019-2010 season that averaged 3.82 goals per game, most in the post 2004-2005 lockout era until Tampa Bay finished with a 3.89 goals per game average last year.  But the 3.34 goals per game the Caps averaged last season was second to that 2009-2010 team.

4.  The 3.02 goals allowed per game last season by the Caps were the most allowed per game since they allowed 3.35 goals per game in 2006-2007.

5.  Last season the Caps had 236 power play chances.  The is the fewest they had for a full 82-game schedule since the league went to an 82-game schedule in 1995-1996.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Ryan O’Reilly

Center Ryan O’Reilly did not come into the NHL with a lot of hoopla.  He was a second round pick (33^rd overall) of the Colorado Avalanche in 2009, taken between Landon Ferraro by the Detroit Red Wings and Carl Klingberg by the Atlanta Thrashers.  Combined, those two appeared in 89 career NHL games.  Meanwhile, O’Reilly jumped right into the Colorado lineup and progressed smartly, becoming a reliable two way player in his six years in Colorado (three seasons over 50 points; five times earning votes for the Selke Trophy as top defensive forward).  His stay in Denver was not without its moments, a contract impasse upon his becoming a restricted free agent after the 2011-2012 season perhaps the most important off ice matter. 

O’Reilly re-upped with the Avs, but after the 2014-2015 season he was traded to the Buffalo Sabres with Jamie McGinn for Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko, J.T. Compher and a second-round pick in the 2015 Entry Draft.  He spent three seasons with the Sabres before he was on the move again, despite having signed a seven-year deal with the club in July 2015, traded to the Blues in July 2018 for Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, a first-round pick in 2019 Entry Draft and a second- round pick in the 2021 Entry Draft.

He seems to have found a home for the time being in St. Louis.  In his first year with the Blues last season, O’Reilly was second on the club in goals scored (28) and led the team in points (77).  He also led the team in plus-minus rating (plus-22) power play points (22), shorthanded points (three), game-winning goals (five, tied with VVladimir Tarasenko and Brayden Schenn), and ice time among forwards (20:46 per game, the only forward to average more than 20 minutes per game).  O’Reilly is 0-9-9, even, in 18 career games against Washington.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

So, who will it be?  Radko Gudas, Nick Jensen, a defenseman to be named at game time?  The question of who will be Dmitry Orlov’s defensive partner is one of those unsettled matters for which coaches get paid big bucks to settle.  Orlov spent most of the last few seasons on Matt Niskanen’s left, but Niskanen skates now with the Philadelphia Flyers, traded for Gudas this past summer.  What complicates Orlov’s situation is an almost bizarre inability to put pucks in the net.  He finished last season with three goals, his lowest for a full season for his career.  He did offset that with 26 assists, one off his career high of 27 in 2016-2017, but other parts of his game slipped a bit, too.  He finished with a plus-3 rating, his worst since he was minus-1 in 54 games in 2013-2014.  He had one power play assist, and while he does not generally get much power play time, that lone power play point was the fewest he had since posting a single power play point (an assist) in the 2013-2014 season.  And, his shooting was down almost 20 percent from 125 shots on goal in 2017-2018 to 101 shots on goal last season.  His ice time dropped a minute and a half per game, from 23:08 in 2017-2018 to 21:38 last year. 

It seems obvious, but the key for Orlov might be in avoiding the sort of slow start he had last season, going 0-2-2, minus-8, in his first 16 games.  And the year before, where he was 0-2-2,minus-3, in his first 17 games.  And the year before that, where he had one goal in his first 36 games.  In ten career games against the Blues, Orlov is 0-5-5, minus-1.

In the end…

Other teams get more attention from the national media that the Capitals and the Blues, but these two teams demonstrated their resilience in the face of adversity the past two seasons, the Caps fighting off a slow postseason start to win 16 of their last 22 playoff games to with the Stanley Cup, while the Blues climbed out of the league cellar mid-way through the regular season to storm into the playoffs and ground out four series wins on the way to their own championship.  A matchup of the last two Stanley Cup champions is a fine way to kick off the new season.

Capitals 4 – Blues 2