Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Forwards: Richard Panik

Richard Panik

“If I could I would always work in silence and obscurity, and let my efforts be known by their results.”

-- Charlotte Bronte

When the unrestricted free agent signing period begins, everybody signing a contract gets their 15 minutes of fame, stars and journeymen alike.  The lights continue to shine on the stars who sign the big deals, while those of more modest skills signing lesser deals (even if rich by fans’ standards) retreat into obscurity.

When the Caps signed forward Richard Panik on the first day of the free agent signing period in July 2019, one might have concluded that he fell into the latter category, that group of players who get their due in the press and then return to toil in obscurity.  Panik came to the Caps as a seven-year veteran who played for four teams (Chicago, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Toronto) and who posted 75 goals and 159 points in 410 career regular season games.  In discussing his assets, flaws, and potential, the TSN.ca scouting report said:

“Has loads of skill and a good frame for the National Hockey League game.  Displays excellent scoring instincts and pretty good hockey sense.  Can also play a two-way game.  Where is the consistency?  He must become a bigger factor game in and game out in the NHL.  Also needs to use his solid frame more to his advantage at the highest level.  Solid, inconsistent two-way winger with a little upside.”

His was a profile of a bottom-six winger who could provide some occasional offensive punch.  Or so one might have thought.  Panik started the Caps phase of his career going without a point in his first 12 games.  He snapped that drought with a goal against Anaheim on November 18^th, but it hardly set off a scoring binge.  Panik had a pair of goals – his only points – over a 11 game stretch starting with that game against the Ducks.  The lack of production over those first 23 games might have influenced his ice time, given he averaged barely nine minutes over his next five games, giving him a scoring line of 3-1-4 in his first 28 games with the Caps.

But then, things took off.  Panik posted points in consecutive games for the first time as a Cap in late December, and it set him off on a 31-game finishing run in which he went 6-12-18, plus-10.  Those 18 points starting December 27^th through the end of the regular season tied him with Tom Wilson and Carl Hagelin for eighth-most on the club, and his plus-10 was topped only by Michal Kempny (plus-11).  His 18.8 percent shooting percentage over that span was third-best on the team, trailing only T.J. Oshie (20.3) and Alex Ovechkin (19.4).

Fearless’ Take…

Were the Caps successful when Panik turned on the red light? They were 6-2-0 when he scored a goal, so, yes.  When he recorded a point?  They were 12-5-2.  So, yes again.  When he got more minutes?  They were 10-4-1 when he skated at least 13 minutes.  Check the “yes” box.  When he was engaged on offense? The Caps were 11-6-1 when he posted two or more shots on goal.  Did Panik check the boxes for “secondary contributions matter?”  Yes.

Cheerless’ Take…

Did it really matter, cuz?  In those 31 games to close his season in which Panik scored those 18 points, the Caps went 15-13-3.  And he had a strange stat in those 31 games.  He was the only forward with a shot attempts-for percentage a 5-on-5 when behind under 50 percent (48.4), and only defenseman Martin Fehervary (who played in only three games) was lower (44.0).

Odd Panik Fact… Richard Panik was a second-round/52^nd overall pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2009.  Of the 44 players taken higher in the draft in Lightning history dating back to 1992, only nine have played in more NHL games than Panik (469).

Odd Panik Fact II… When Panik scored a goal in the first round robin game this postseason, it was his first postseason goal of any kind in his career, in his 13^th postseason game.  It came against the team that drafted him, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Game to Remember… March 7, 2020.  In recent years, there is little doubt that the Pittsburgh Penguins are the Capitals’ chief rival.  And sooner or later, whether a player is home grown or obtained by trade or free agency, they are integrated into that rivalry.  Richard Panik’s “Penguin Moment” might have come in a game in Pittsburgh in early March, what would prove to be the penultimate game of the regular season.  The Caps got out of the gate quickly, Nic Dowd giving them a lead less than two minutes into the game, Panik getting the secondary assist on the goal.  Late in the period, Nicklas Backstrom put the Caps up, 2-0, but they were not finished.

Garnet Hathaway won just enough of a puck battle just inside his own blue line to force the puck into the neutral zone where Dowd collected it.  He sped down the left side, and with Conor Sheary backchecking for the Pens to try to foil a 2-on-1, Dowd slid the puck into the middle to Nick Jensen filling in as the late third man on the rush.  Jensen found Panik below the right wing circle, but the pass was put on Panik’s backhand.  Deftly moving the puck to his forehand, Panik batted it past goalie Matt Murray, and the Caps went to the first intermission up, 3-0.  The goal would prove to be the game-winner in the Caps’ 5-2 win, and he would finish with his second two-point game of the season.

 

Game to Forget… January 11, 2020. It’s one thing to lose.  It is another to lose at home.  And to lose big.  And to take a stick to the face in the midst of the unpleasantness.  Richard Panik would experience all four when the Caps hosted the New Jersey Devils in early January.  Things did not start out especially bad for the Caps, although it would be the Devils drawing first blood with the only goal of the first period, Panik on ice for that tally.  The Devils scored again early in the second, and then the evening would come to an abrupt end for Panik.  Skating his first shift of the second period, he took a high stick in the face from Miles Wood, ending his evening with five shifts and four minutes in ice time (lowest in both categories for his season).  For his part, Wood received a double minor for high-sticking, and the Caps scored a power play goal.  It would be their only goal in a thoroughly forgettable 5-1 loss to the Devils.

Postseason…

Panik had that goal against the Lightning in the first game of the round robin, and then… It was his only point in eight games, over which he recorded only eight shots on goal, 12 hits (half of them in the Caps’ Game 1 loss to the Islanders in the first round),two blocked shots, and six penalty minutes.  It was for Panik, like others among the bottom-six forwards, a very quiet, very unproductive postseason.

Looking Ahead…

Richard Panik is one year into his four-year/$11 million contract with the Caps.  Whether that contract is a bargain or a burden depends largely on which Panik shows up going forward, the one who posted weak numbers in the first 28 games of his season, or the one who closed with a rush.  He will not turn 30 until next February, so it is reasonable to hold out hope that the finish he had was more indicative of his potential contributions, having endured the “acquaintance” trials of his first few months in the organization.

In the end…

Taken as a whole, Panik’s season was not bad, but neither was it good.  His per-game production numbers were slightly off from those he posted in his previous stops, a season and a half in Arizona and parts of three seasons in Chicago.  The Caps were hopeful he would settle into a third line/right wing role, and at season’s end, the matter of whether he could fill that role adequately and productively was not settled.

Grade: B-

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images

Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“We will chase perfection, and we will chase it relentlessly, knowing all the while we can never attain it. But along the way, we shall catch excellence.”

-- Vince Lombardi

Wayne Greztky holds the all-time goal scoring record in the NHL, but Alex Ovechkin arguably the unparalleled leader in goal scoring over the span of a career.  Ovechkin finished his 15^th NHL season with 48 goals, tied with David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins for the league lead and a share of the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy awarded to the league’s top goal scorer.  It was his ninth Richard Trophy (the first he has shared), but as amazing as that is, the 48 goals in 68 games left him after 15 seasons with an average of  50.25 goals per 82 games played over his career.  Only three of the 45 players in the 500-goal club averaged 50 or more goals per 82 games over their career, and no, Wayne Gretzky is not one of them (he averaged 49.30 goals per 82 games in his career).  The others are Mike Bossy (62.48) and Mario Lemieux (61.84), players who played most of their respective careers in a far more offense-oriented NHL.

What made this season remarkable was not so much Ovechkin winning another Richard Trophy, but in how he got there.  His 48 goals in 68 games was the most goals-per-game he had over a season (0.7059) since he posted 56 goals in 79 games (0.7089) in 2008-2009 at the age of 23.  And, in the season with a season context, Ovechkin recorded six or seven goals in five of his seven ten-game segments (he also had a four-goal segment and an 11-goal segment to round out his season), more evidence of his consistency.

There was, however, an odd character about his goal scoring this season, that being that it did not seem to matter much unless he scored in bunches.  When he did, that is when he had two or more goals in a game, the Caps were quite successful, going 10-1-2 in the 13 multi-goal games he had.  No surprise there.  But in games in which he had a single goal, 18 in all, the Caps were 9-7-2, bringing their record when Ovechkin scored any volume of goals to 19-8-4.  In games in which he did not score a goal, the Caps were 21-12-4.  The standings points per game when he scored (1.35) and when he did not (1.24) were not all that different, although over an 82-game season it would mean nine standings points.

 

Fearless’ Take…

The sustained excellence of Ovechkin continued in 2019-2020.  He became the second player in league history to post 30-goal seasons in each of his first 15 years in the league, tying Mike Gartner.  There is now only Gartner ahead of him in total career 30-plus goal seasons (17).  His 48 goals this season were his 11^th 40-plus goal season, breaking a tie for second place all-time with Marcel Dionne and Mario Lemieux.  Only Wayne Gretzky (12) has more.  He had 13 multi-goal games to take over fourth place on the all-time list of multi-goal games (145) and is within striking distance of Mario Lemieux for third place (154).  He had four hat tricks, breaking a tie for fifth place with Jari Kurri when the season started and giving him 27 for his career.  He had goals in 31 of the 68 games in which he played, giving him goals in 530 career games, one short of Luc Robitaille for eighth place all-time.  His ability to climb as many statistical lists as quickly as he has been, at age 34, is amazing.

Cheerless’ Take… Goals are goals, and few do it better than Alex Ovechkin but it isn’t all there is, even for a goal scorer.  Ovechkin did something no one in the history of the NHL did before this season.  His 48 goals and 19 assists are the first time in NHL history a player posted more than 45 goals and fewer than 20 assists in a season.  Those 19 assists were a career low for Ovechkin.  There was also the minus-12 rating, the third-worst of his career and worst since the infamous minus-35 he posted in 2013-2014.  In doing so, he became the first player in NHL history since 1959-1960, when the NHL began capturing plus-minus statistics, to post more than 45 goals and record a plus-minus worse than minus-10 for a third time (the third instance was in 2006-2007, when he had 46 goals and was a minus-19).

Odd Ovechkin Fact… Alex Ovechkin is the league’s all-time leading goal scorer in one respect.  No first overall draft pick in the history of the league has more career goals than Ovechkin (706), the first overall pick of the 2004 Entry Draft.  Mario Lemieux, taken first overall in 1984, is second (690).  He is almost 250 goals ahead of the next player on that list who remains active, Sidney Crosby (462), taken with the first overall pick in 205.

Odd Ovechkin Fact II… When Ovechkin finished this season with 48 goals, it marked the 11^th time he finished an NHL season with at least 45 goals.  That would be one more than the total number of 45-plus goal seasons recorded by Hull…that would be Bobby (five) and Brett (five), combined.

Game to Remember… February 22, 2020.  History isn’t a fairy tale, and making it sometimes comes with blemishes.  It does not make reaching an historical milestone less significant; it is just a fact.  And that is the set up for what transpired when the Caps visited the New Jersey Devils in late February.  The Caps were in a rut, losers of five of their previous six contests (1-4-1) when they faced the Devils.  Ovechkin, who was chasing his 700^th career goal, went five games without a goal in that run before snapping that drought with a goal against Montreal before skating against New Jersey. 

With his career goal meter now on “699,” Ovechkin and the Caps fell behind by a pair of goals to their hosts before making a comeback.  Tom Wilson got the Caps on the board with a goal in the 15^th minute of the second period to draw the Caps within a goal.  The 2-1 Devils lead would hold up into the third period, but early on in the final frame, history would be made:

The milestone goal tied the game 4:50 into the third period, but that would be the last highlight for the Caps on this afternoon.  The Devils broke the tie on a power play with 1:59 left in regulation to win, 3-2.  Nevertheless, Ovechkin secured his place in NHL history as the eighth player (naturally) to reach the 700 goal mark for a career. 

Game to Forget… February 10, 2020.  Relationships forged in battle toward a common goal are lasting, but it is also satisfying to take advantage of a former teammate when they depart for another team.  Same goes for coaches.  It might be a special incentive among Capitals to perform well when facing former coach Barry Trotz, who guided them to a Stanley Cup, but who now leads the New York Islanders.  For Alex Ovechkin and the Caps, satisfaction was not to be had when the Isles visited Capital One Arena in February. 

Things started poorly for the hosts – Anthony Beauvillier scored twice in less than three minutes to give New York a 2-0 lead less than seven minutes into the game – and things got worse from there. The Caps never really made much of a game of it, falling behind 3-1 after two periods and allowing two more goals before the third period was 11 minutes old.  Two late goals were largely cosmetic in the 5-3 loss.  Ovechkin, who in addition to facing his old coach was still in pursuit of his 700^th goal (he was at 698 in this game), had what might have been his worst game of the season.  In almost 22 minutes of ice time, he was blanked on six shots (12 shot attempts) and was on ice for all five Islander goals.  He was on ice for a John Carlson goal to bring his game rating to a minus-4, the second of two minus-4 ratings he had this season.

Postseason…

Ovechkin was conspicuously absent in the round robin, failing to record a point in three games while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game.  He was far more productive in the first round series against the Islanders, recording half of the Caps’ eight goals scored in the five-game series loss.  But what stuck out in the end was that after scoring two goals, including the game-winner, in Game 4 and with the chance to make a series of it, Ovechkin went without a point and was minus-3 in Game 5 that ended the Caps’ season.  Oddly enough, it was only the second time in his career he was minus-3 in a playoff game, the other also at the hands of the Islanders in Game 6 of the 2015 Eastern Conference quarterfinal, a 3-1 loss.

Looking Ahead…

Just about everyone in Capitals Nation knows that Alex Ovechkin is entering the last year of the 13-year/$124 million contract he signed back in January 2008.  And, negotiations on an extension are on hold for the time being, at least until the next training camp.  Few entertain a serious feeling of dread that Ovechkin and the Caps will part ways, but this is a point in time when Caps fans realize that the end of the Ovechkin’s career road is now in the windshield, and most of the best days are in the rear-view mirror.  It makes for a certain urgency in pursuing another Stanley Cup, but also a certain poignancy in realizing one of the great careers in the NHL is entering its autumn years.

In the end…

Early in his career, Alex Ovechkin chased records.  Then, he chased the validation that comes with winning a Stanley Cup.  Now, he is chasing history.  Having missed more than half an NHL season (47 games) to labor and pandemic issues over his career, he is somewhat handicapped in his pursuit of the all-time goal scoring record held by Wayne Gretzky.  Nevertheless, even with that burden, he is one of the greatest goal scorers (if not the greatest) in the history of the league and amazes with his high level of production well into his 30’s.  He continues to set a high standard of personal performance, and it is that high standard that makes those items Cheerless pointed out stand out a little more.  Still, if hockey signaled goals with yellow lights, perhaps Alex Ovechkin would have slowed down by now.  It does not, and as long as it doesn’t, Ovechkin gives little hint of slowing down. 

Grade: B+

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2019-2020 By the Tens -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“Enthusiasm is the mother of effort, and without it nothing great was ever achieved.”

-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Fearless” is a difficult adjective to apply to someone inside the rink by someone outside of it who merely writes about hockey, but it does seem an appropriate term to describe the style of play employed by Washington Capitals forward T.J. Oshie.  He is a skill player with a grinder’s ethic, a physical player who seems, at least figuratively, to punch above his weight constantly.

The 2019-2020 season was no exception.  Oshie would have undoubtedly finished the season with the seventh 50-point season of his career and fourth in five years as a Capital (he finished with 49 points in 69 games).  He finished with 26 goals, the fourth time in five seasons in Washington he posted 25 or more goals.  He finished with ten power play goals, one short of his career high (11, set with the Caps in 2015-2016).  Oshie had four game-winning goals, one short of his career high (five, set once with the Caps and once with the St. Louis Blues).  His 19.5 shooting percentage was the second-best of his career (23.1 with the Caps in 2016-2017).  And, he did it playing in all 69 games.  Even though it was a shortened season, it was the first time in his career he dressed for every regular season game.

Even within the confines of the 2019-2020 season there was a consistency in his effort and production.  He never dipped below five points in any ten-game segment, and in four of the seven segments he posted eight or nine points.  Where he produced in bunches was in power play scoring.  Seven of Oshie’s ten power play goals this season were recorded in the first (four PPG) and sixth (three PPG) ten-game segments.

Fearless’ Take…

Think of T.J. Oshie as a “primary secondary” scorer, or a “secondary primary” scorer, the sort who, as a top-six forward, is expected to contribute but whose contributions matter nonetheless.  Washington was 15-5-2 in the 22 games in which he recorded a goal, 28-6-2 in the 36 games in which he recorded a point.  But his orneriness was not a liability.  The Caps were 16-7-4 in the 27 games in which he was credited with at least two hits.  He even posted his second-best career season on faceoffs, splitting 238 draws down the middle (119 wins, 119 losses/50.0 percent).

Cheerless’ Take…

In some respects T.J. Oshie had his best year as a Capital, but you wonder how much longer he is going to be able to produce at this level.  There were 43 players in the NHL with 25 or more goals this season, and only four of them were older than Oshie (Alex Ovechkin, Zach Parise, Patrice Bergeron, and Evgeni Malkin).  One could argue that Oshie plays a grittier game than all of them (even Ovechkin), and despite his playing in every game this season, he missed 37 regular season games over the previous four seasons with the Caps.

Odd Oshie Fact… An example of T.J. Oshie’s combination of skill and grit.  In his five years with Capitals, Oshie is one of four players in the league to have scored at least 125 goals (128), posted at least 250 points (257), been charged with at least 150 penalty minutes (163), and been credited with at least 500 hits (576).  The others are: Jamie Benn, Alex Ovechkin, and Joe Pavelski.

Odd Oshie Fact II… For all his willingness to engage physically, Oshie plays well within the limits of the rule book.  He had only 26 minutes in penalties this season, and more than half of those (14) came in a 13-game stretch from October 22^nd though November 18^th.  And within that stretch, almost half (six minutes) came in a 5-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks on November 18^th.

Odd Oshie Fact III… The Caps did not lose a game in regulation in which Oshie skated less than 16 minutes (8-0-1).

Game to Remember… December 11, 2019.  When the Washington Capitals hosted the Boston Bruins in early December, it was a meeting ogf the top two teams in the league, the Caps sporting a league-best 22-5-5 record, and the Bruins three points behind them in the standings with a 20-5-6 record.  Boston took a 1-0 lead to the first intermission on a David Pastrnak goal, but the Caps came back on the strength of a pair of Oshie goals less than four minutes apart early in the second period.  The first came on a Caps power play, the scoring sequence starting when Bruin defenseman Zdeno Chara tried to flick the puck out of the defensive zone with a one-handed swipe, but John Carlson kept it in at the blue line.  Carlson spied Oshie, who the Bruins’ defense completely lost floating to the top of the crease.  Oshie collected the pass, spun, and chipped a shot over goalie Jaroslav Halak’s left shoulder.  The shot hit the crossbar and dropped to the ice, the referee waving his arms to signal no goal, but as he was doing so, Oshie jumped on the loose puck behind Halak and batted it home, tying the game 3:35 into the period.

Oshie’s second goal was worthy of the personal highlight reel.  From along the wall in the defensive zone, Jakub Vrana fed Evgeny Kuznetsov with a pass that Kuznetsov settled at his own blue line.  He then fed the puck ahead to Oshie in stride at the center red line.  Pushing two Bruin defenders back with his advance, Oshie stickhandled the puck through and around defenseman Connor Clifton, broke in on Halak, and backhanded the puck over Halak’s blocker as he was being hooked with a delayed penalty being signaled.  Boston tied the game in the third period, but the Caps won in the end, 3-2, on a John Carlson goal. Oshie finished with two goals on two shots (one of four two-goal games for the season), a takeaway, a blocked shot, and 2-for-4 on faceoffs.

Game to Forget… December 28, 2019.  The last road game of the 2019 portion of the schedule might not be the worst game the Caps played this season, but they could see it from PNC Arena in Raleigh.  Almost without exception, it was a bad night for the visitors.  For T.J. Oshie it was especially unpleasant.  He was on ice for four of the six goals the Hurricanes scored and came up empty on four shots of his own.   He posted his only minus-4 rating of the regular season.  It was the exclamation point on a woeful stretch in which he went 1-0-1, minus-7, over a six-game span, perhaps his worst span of games of all the regular season.

Postseason…

But for a brief flurry over consecutive games in which he recorded three goals – one in the final round robin game against Boston and two in Game 1 of the first round series against the New York Islanders – Oshie had a quiet postseason.  In the other six games, he did not record a point and was minus-7 (he posted another minus-4 in Game 2 against the Isles).  While he managed nine shots on goal in three round robin games, he had only nine in five games against the New Yorkers.

Looking Ahead…

T.J. Oshie just completed year three of an eight-year/$46 million contract that extends through the 2024-2025 season.  While the last years of that contract look to be a bit uncomfortable (Oshie would be 38 years old when it expires), the complicating feature is whether he will be an unprotected player when the expansion draft is held to fill out the roster of the expansion Seattle Kraken next June.  It is possible, if not probable, that the upcoming season will be Oshie’s last as a Capital.

In the end…

If Alex Ovechkin’s game is the expression of joy, T.J. Oshie’s is the expression of determination.  Rare is the player who seems to bring the singularity of purpose to make a difference with each shift that Oshie brings.  In his own way, he is not slowing down any more than is Ovechkin. He fought through a season last year in which he missed 13 games to injury to play every game this season and continue the high level of production he has posted since coming to Washington.  There are, however, issues with Oshie – two, to be specific.  Can he sustain his health and production next season, and will that season mark the end of one of the more interesting and successful careers in Caps history?

Grade: A-

Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America