A TWO-Point Afternoon: Washington Capitals -- Game 34: Capitals 5 - Rangers 4

The Washington Capitals hosted the New York Rangers in a noon start at Capital One Arena.  The Caps were trying to extend their most recent winning streak to three games, while the Rangers were looking to get back to winning ways after a 2-1 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday afternoon.  The Caps entered the game atop the East Division by virtue of a tiebreaker over the New York Islanders, while the Rangers started the game in sixth place, three points behind the Boston Bruins for the fourth and final playoff spot in the East Division.  The Caps closed the Washington portion of the season series with a 5-4 win that was far closer a game at the end than it should have been.

First Period

The teams were more or less even in shots and shot attempts over the first half of the period when it appeared the Rangers scored the first goal, a shot from below the goal line that struck T.J. Oshie in the face and ricocheted toward the goal line.  Dmitry Orlov darted in and swept the puck away before it could completely cross the goal line, and fideo review confirmed that it was no goal.

The Caps got the game’s first power play late in the period when Colin Blackwell was sent off on a roughing call at 17:15.  Washington had two shots on goal but did not convert, and the teams went to the first intermission in a scoreless tie.

-- Washington outshot the Rangers, 11-6, and out-attempted them, 18-14.

-- Carl Hagelin led the Caps with three shots on goal.  Yes, that is not a misprint.  John Carlson had five shot attempts.

-- Nicklas Backstrom won five of seven draws, the only Capital over 50 percent for the period.

-- Ten Capitals were credited with hits.  Nine of them had one; T.J. Oshie had three.

Second Period

Washington was awarded their second power play of the afternoon when Brendan Smith was called for hooking at 3:25. The Caps were shutout on shots and failed to convert for the second time in as many power play chances.

The Rangers had their first power play chance of the game at the 7:11 mark when Nic Dowd went to the penalty box on a holding call.  The Caps killed the power play without allowing the Rangers a shot on goal.

The Caps broke through in the 11^th minute. Ryan Lindgren tried to shoot the puck to the net from the left point, but the shot was muffled by Tom Wilson.  The puck escaped to the neutral zone, where Jakub Vrana tacked it down and separated from the defense on a breakaway.  His shot was stopped by goalie Keith Kinkaid, but Tom Wilson followed up and backhanded the rebound past Kinkaid’s left pad to make it 1-0 at the 10:43 mark.

They doubled their lead less than two minutes later when an Alex Ovechkin shot from deep in the left wing corner hit a Ranger in the low slot and clicked off the left pad of Kinkaid and into the far side of the net at the 12:29 mark.

Wilson put the Caps up by three less than three minutes later when he batted a rebound of a Nicklas Backstrom shot out of mid-air on his backhand past the right shoulder of Kinkaid at the 15:07 mark.  Washington weather a couple of good scoring chances by the Rangers in the last five minutes of the period, including a breakaway, and got a late power play on a high-sticking call on Carl Hagelin, but finished the period with their 3-0 lead intact.

-- The Caps outshot new York, 8-5, in the period but were out-attempted, 14-12

-- Washington was credited with 26 hits through 40 minutes to 14 for the Rangers.  Fourteen different Caps had hits on their score sheet lines, Zdeno Chara leading the group with four.

-- Alex Ovechkin, Carl Hagelin, and John Carlson led the Caps with three shots on goal apiece; Carlson and Tom Wilson had five shot attempts.

Third Period

The Hagelin penalty that carried over into the third period was killed off, and the Caps kept their 3-0 lead.  Washington got their third power play chance of the game when Libor Hajek went off for interference at 1:50.  The Caps did not convert the power play, but they did extend their lead in the sixth minute.  Carl Hagelin held the puck behind the Ranger net looking for a passing lane.  Sliding to his left, he found Evgeny Kuznetsov in the middle for a one timer that beat Kinkaid cleanly at the 5:10 mark.

New York ruined the shutout bid by goalie Ilya Samsonov when Colin Blackwell circled with the puck in deep to Samsonov’s right.  Looking as if he might go for a wrap-around attempt, he tried instead to bank the puck off Samsonov before going around the net.  The puck bounced around in the crease, and Blackwell cleaned it up to put the Rangers on the board at the 6:42 mark.

Blackwell got his second of the period on a fine play by defenseman Libor Hajek, who kept the puck in at the offensive blue line to allow the Rangers to keep the Caps hemmed in.  He slid the puck up to Kevin Rooney in the left wing circle, who then fed it to the low slot for a redirect by an uncovered Blackwell, and it was 4-2, 9:41 into the period.

What momentum the Caps might have generated was stalled when Oshie restored the Caps three-goal lead, circling from behind the net with Hajek on his tail, redirecting a Justin Schultz drive out of mid-aid and into the top of the net past Kinkaid to make it 5-2 11:46 into the period.

That Ranger momentum was not snuffed out though.  They cut the Caps’ lead back to two goals when Alexis Lafreniere scored at the 12:18 mark, following up on a rebound of a Kevin Rooney shot, to make it 5-3.

The Rangers got a chance to take another bite out of the Caps’ lead when Wilson was sent off for tripping at 15:57 of the period. It took the Rangers just 11 seconds to convert the chance when Chris Kreider redirected a Ryan Strome pass behind Samsonov at 16:08.

The Rangers pulled Kinkaid late, but it was to no avail.  The Caps skated off with a 5-4 win.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin’s second period goal was his 456^th career even strength goal, tying Brett Hull for sixth-most all time. 

-- Dmitry Orlov had two assists for his first multi-point game of the season and his first since he had a pair of assists against Winnipeg on February 25, 2020.

-- Tom Wilson’s two-goal game was his eighth career multi-goal game, tying him with six other players, among them John Druce, Keith Jones, and Mike Knuble.

-- Washington outshot the Rangers, 22-20, but the Rangers had 48 shot attempts to the Caps’ 39.

-- Four Caps finished with three shots on goal – Alex Ovechkin, Carl Hagelin, John Carlson, and T.J. Oshie.  Carlson led the club with six shot attempts.

-- The Caps out-hit the Rangers, 36-21.  John Carlson, Zdeno Chara, and Garnet Hathaway had four apiece to lead the team.

-- Nicklas Backstrom and Nic Dowd each had double-digit faceoff wins, Backstrom going 14-for-24 (58.3 percent) and Dowd going 10-for-13 (76.9 percent).

-- John Carlson led the Caps with 22:52 in ice time.

-- Odd thing about Alex Ovechkin’s ice time.  He skated 5:37 on power plays but only 11:30 at even strength, less than six other forwards.

-- The five goals scored by the Caps tied a season high allowed by the Rangers, who have allowed five goals five times.

In the end…

For 45 minutes, this was as pretty a game as the Caps have played in a while.  The last 15 minutes?  It was like someone vomited on a Twinkie and passed it off as art.  But a win is a win is a win.  The trick now will be to keep the Rangers from carrying any momentum from this game into the rematch in New York on Tuesday night.

 

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 11

It was a light work week for the Washington Capitals, both in terms of games played and strength of opponent.  The Caps looked a bit rusty at times in their first of two games against the New Jersey Devils, but they hung on for a victory before dominating the Devils in the second of the two games to make it a successful week.

Record: 2-0-0

The Caps came into the week and their two-game set against the New Jersey Devils having won all four previous meetings this season, outscoring the Devs, 17-11.  They ended the week 6-0-0 against New Jersey with a 25-14 edge in scoring.  In doing so, the Caps also ended the week with a 16-3-1 record in 19 games since they suffered a four-game losing streak in early February.  At no time over those 20 games did Washington lose consecutive games, and their .825 points percentage over that span is best in the league.

Offense: 4.00/game (season: 3.39 / 4th)

Two games, four goals in each, bring the total the Caps have against the Devils to five in six contests that the Caps posted four or more goals.  It was the ninth time in that 16-3-1 run that the Caps scored four or more goals in a game.

Five players shared in the eight goals over the two games, led by Alex Ovechkin with three.  Evgeny Kuznetsov added a pair, with Conor Sheary, Dmitry Orlov, and Nicklas Backstrom recording single goals.  Eleven different Capitals had points, led by Ovechkin and Kuznetsov with four apiece.  Four other Caps had two-point weeks – Justin Schultz, Daniel Sprong, Conor Sheary, and Tom Wilson.

There were some dark spots, though.  The Caps did not get a point out of the Carl Hagelin-Nic Dowd-Garnet Hathaway fourth line, and all of them were a minus-1 for the week (Richard Panik was the only other Caps with a minus rating, going minus-1).  Jakub Vrana did not record a point and had only two shots on goal, averaging ony 11:40 in ice time for the two games.

Defense: 1.50/game (season: 2.82 / 16th)

The Caps held the Devils to 48 shots over the two games, the 24.0 average being second-best in the league for the week (St. Louis: 23.2).  They allowed only 86 shot attempts at 5-on-5, tied for second-fewest among the eight teams playing two games in Week 11.  It is part of a pattern of stinginess the Caps have exhibited lately.  Four times in their last nine games they allowed fewer than 25 shots on goal.

In a week in which the Caps allowed only two goals a 5-on-5, one would not expect any individual Capital to be significantly victimized, and that was the case this week.  Ten Caps were on ice for a 5-on-5 goal, each of them for only one goal against.

Goaltending: 1.50 / .938 / 1 shutout (season: 2.59 / .910 / 2 shutouts)

Another split week for the goalies, and it was a case of Ilya Samsonov probably cementing his role as the Caps number one netminder down the stretch run.  Vitek Vanecek stopped 21 of 24 shots in his 59:40 of work for the week, getting the decision in the Caps’ 4-3 win to start the week against New Jersey.  It extended an odd month for Vanecek, who has been either very good or very mediocre stopping pucks in his six March appearances.  Three times he posted a save percentage of .947 or higher, including a shutout against Buffalo.  On the other hand, three times he posted save percentages of .875 or worse, allowing three or more goals in each, including a 14-for-18 effort in just 35:43 of work against Boston in a 5-1 loss on March 5^th.

At the other end of the scale, Samsonov posted his first shutout of the season, a 24-save effort, in the Caps’ 4-0 win over the Devils on Friday.  With that win, Samsonov has a save percentage under .900 in two of seven appearances this month, and he has save percentages of .955 or better in three games, posting an overall March record of 5-`-0 (one no decision), 1.88. .933, with one shutout.  His .933 save percentage for the month is fifth-best of the 40 goalies with 300 or more minutes.

Power Play: 0-for-4 / 0.0 percent (season: 24.4 percent / 8th)

Few chances, no success.  The Caps spread the shots around, but that was good and bad.  Six Caps shared the nine power play shots on goal, with Jakub Vrana, Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov each getting a pair.  On the other hand, they had one shot on goal from Alex Ovechkin and only one from a player in the middle of the 1-3-1 layout (T.J. Oshie).  The Caps had those nine shots in 8:00 of power play time, not a bad shots per minute rate.  But they seemed not to get them from scoring areas or from rebounds.  What made it a little harder to take was that despite being better of late, the Devils are a poor road penalty killing team (66.0 percent at week’s end).

Penalty Killing: 5-for-6 / 83.3 percent (season: 81.2 percent / 10th)

It was not a bad week for the Caps on the PK.  Allowing three power plays in each of the two games is not a bad amount to allow, and the Caps allowed only nine shots in 10:26 of shorthanded ice time.  The result was more or less an average week of penalty killing for the Caps.

Faceoffs: 55-for-118 / 46.6 percent (season:  percent 48.5 / 23rd)

Here was another category that was rather average for the Caps, by their standards this season.  The odd part of it was that the Caps were under 50 percent against a team worse than them in faceoffs (46.3 percent for the season at week’s end).  On the good side, the Caps were a bit better in the ends (a combined 40-for-79/50.6 percent) than they were in the neutral zone against the Devils (15-for-39/38.5 percent).

Nic Dowd was once more an above 50 percent player for the week in this category, and Nicklas Backstrom had a 50-plus percent week as well.  With Lars Eller out, T.J. Oshie took a heavier load in draws than usual, tying Dowd for second-highest number of faceoffs taken.  In a related point, the faceoff duties were parceled out by the ends rather cleanly.  Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov took primarily offensive zone draws (13 and 14, respectively), while Dowd and Backstrom took most of their draws in the defensive end (16 and 14, respectively).

Goals by Period:

Balance was the key.  Three first period goals, two second period goals, three third period goals, and one allowed in each of the three periods makes for a 2-0-0 week.  The Caps still dominate first periods (plus-8 for the season) and second periods (plus-15), but there remains work to do in third periods (minus-4).

Year-over-Year:

The two-win week added to the Caps’ recent run of good fortune, and as a result this year’s team has almost caught up once more to last year’s team in many categories.  The goals for/goals against categories are striking for the similarities through 33 games.  One area that remains a concern, though, is power play chances. This year’s team is still 15 chances behind last years, almost half a power play opportunity per game (this year’s Caps rank 30^th in the league in power play chances).

In the end…

Even with the absences of Tom Wilson (suspension) and Lars Eller (injury), plus a nicked up Alex Ovechkin (who did not miss any games, but has missed practice for “maintenance”), the Caps are rolling.  They have survived the absences by doing things in what some might call the “right way.”  They have been extraordinarily stingy, their 2.20 goals allowed per game over their 16-3-1 run since February 16^th being second-best in the league.  It is the kind of result that can be sustained with effort, and with the East Division now bunched up at the top, with three teams separated by two points, effort is precisely what the Caps need as they prepare for the last third of the regular season.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-1-4, plus-5, eight shots on goal, 15 shot attempts, one game-winning goal, passed Mark Messier for seventh place all time in even strength goals (455))
• Second Star: Ilya Samsonov (1-0-0, 0.00, 1.000; posted his first shutout of the season)
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-2-4, plus-4, one game-winning goal, seven shots on goal, posted first goals on home ice this season)

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 34/35: Capitals vs. Rangers March 28/30

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals face the New York Rangers for the third and fourth times in six games when they play a home-and-home set against the Blueshirts Sunday in Washington and Tuesday in New York.  The Caps are fresh of a sweep of a two-game set on home ice against the New Jersey Devils, while the Rangers carried a three-game winning streak into their Saturday matchup against the fading Philadelphia Flyers.

Recent success by the Rangers have propelled them into the playoff conversation.  A 5-1-1 record over seven games heading into their Saturday contest in Philadelphia have them three points behind the Boston Bruins for the fourth and final playoff spot in the East Division, although the Bruins have three games in hand.  It is the third-best record in the league over that span in points percentage (.786), trailing only the Caps (6-1-0/.857) and the Colorado Avalanche (6-0-1/.929).

Over those seven games, Mika Zibnaejad leads the league in points (17), and his seven goals trail only Alex Ovechkin (eight).  It did not hurt that he faced the Philadelphia Flyers twice in that span and posted scoring lines of 3-3-6 in each game.  He is one of two players with at least one six-point game in the league this season (Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl is the other) and the only one to do it twice.  He is also one of only three players to post two six-point games since 2005-2006 (Daniel Alfredsson and Sidney Crosby were the others) and the only one to do it twice in one season.  He is the first player with two games with six or more points in one season since Eric Lindros had one goal and six assists in an 8-5 Flyers win over the Ottawa Senators on February 26, 1997, and followed that up with two goals and four assists in a 6-3 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 19, 1997.

Those two six-point games and 17 points in his last seven games have resurrected a season that was shaping up to be a disappointment.  He was just 3-6-9, minus-5, over his first 25 games despite getting almost 20 minutes of ice time per game (19:47).  He had one streak of six game without a point in that stretch and another of five.  He has points in five of his last seven contests.  Zibanejad is 12-11-23, plus-7, in 29 career games against Washington.

Will he go, or will he stay?  Ryan Strome has popped up in the trade rumor conversation of late.  But he is not making it easy for the Rangers’ front office to pull the trigger.  He is third on the team in goals scored this season (11) and second in points (30).  He leads the Rangers in assists (19).  And over the Rangers’ 5-1-1 stretch going into Saturday’s game, he is 2-10-12, plus-7 in seven games. 

When Strome is on, the Rangers are happy.  New York is 8-0-0 in games this season when he has a multi-point game and 8-0-1 when he scores a goal.  On a per-game basis, Strome is turning this season into a career year.  His 0.34 goals per game is far and away is best in eight NHL seasons (0.26 per game last season being second-best), his 0.59 assists per game tying his previous best (0.59 last year), and his 0.94 points per game is 0.10 points per game better than last year’s 0.84 mark.  Part of his goal scoring improvement is a more aggressive posture with respect to shooting, his 2.59 shots per game being a career high.  Odd Strome fact… He was taken one spot ahead of teammate Mika Zibanejad in the 2011 Entry Draft, Strome taken fifth and Zibanejad sixth.  Neither was taken by the Rangers.  Strom was selected by the New York Islanders, Zibanejad by the Ottawa Senators.  The Rangers took J.T. Miller with the 15^th overall pick with their first round selection.  Strome is 8-14-22, minus-3 in 28 career games against the Caps.

It might seem odd to use the phrase “the clock is already ticking” with respect to a 25-year old goaltender, especially given that many goalies have a longer developmental arc before reaching their prime than skaters.  But that was the way New York Post columnist Larry Brooks concluded his piece on Ranger goalie Igor Shesterkin on Thursday.  This has not been the easiest sophomore season for the Rangers' goalie.  After wowing Rangers Nation with a 10-2-0, 2.52, .932 record in a brief stint last season, he opened this season with three losses in his first four appearances (0-2-1, one no decision), a 2.98 goals against average, and a .886 save percentage.  He came back with a three-game winning streak (3-0-0, 1.65, .940), but then he suffered another three-game losing streak that was more bad support than bad performance (0-3-0, 2.40, .927).  He performed well over a five-game stretch (3-2-0, 2.20, .928) before suffering a strained groin that kept him out for three weeks.  He returned to the lineup on Thursday in the Rangers’ 8-3 win over Philadelphia and stopped 41 of a season high 44 shots faced.  It has been a season marked by highs and lows, inconsistency, and a bit of injury to round it out.  Shesterkin is 2-0-0, 1.50, .950 in two career appearances against Washington.

1.  Over their 5-1-1 run, the Rangers are the only team in the league with two shorthanded goals scored.

2.  While the Rangers have been successful over those last seven games, their success has not come by playing nice.  Their 0.85 penalties per 60 minutes is most in the East Division over that span and fifth-most in the league.

3.  While the Caps have been impressive in second periods this season, the Rangers have been explosive in the second periods of their 5-1-1 run, posting 17 goals to lead the league.

4.  The Rangers are second in the league in 5-on-5 goals over their seven-game run of success (23), trailing only Colorado (28).

5.  After allowing four or more goals in each of three games before their 5-1-1 stretch, the Rangers have allowed more then three goals only once, in a 5-4 overtime loss to Pittsburgh on March 15^th.

1.  If the Caps score two goals on Sunday, it will make it an even 400 goals scored on home ice against the Rangers in the all-time series.

2.  Washington leads the league in 5-on-5 goals scored this season (83), six more than Edmonton (77).

3.  The Caps lead the league in second period goals scored overall (47), three more than the Rangers and Tampa Bay (44).

4.  Washington is second in the league in wins when leading after two periods (17), one fewer than Tampa Bay.

5.  The Caps have more wins when outshot by opponents (ten) than any team in the East Dvision.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Ryan Lindgren

The Rangers have dressed ten defensemen this season.  Only one has appeared in all 32 games going into Saturday’s action.  Not Adam Fox, not K’Andre Miller, not Brendan Smith.  Ryan Lindgren has answered the bell 32 times for the Rangers this season.  His offensive numbers been decent – he is one of three Ranger defensemen without a goal this season, but he is second in assists (nine) and points (nine) among the ten blueliners.  His plus-8 rating ranks third among Ranger defensemen, he is third in shots on goal (37; he is one of 14 players in the league with at least 35 shots on goal and no goals), and his 19:46 in average ice time ranks fourth.  It paints a picture of a reliable player who does not impress with flash but provides solid minutes each night.

Lindgren came to the Rangers in the 2018 trade that sent Rick Nash to the Boston Bruins.  He was taken by the Bruins in the second round of the 2016 Entry Draft (49^th overall), but he never played for the Bruins before he was sent to New York.  He is in his third season with the Rangers and has a kind of “Nick Jensen” quality about his play (well, before Jensen went on a scoring spree).  Lindgren has only one goal in 97 career NHL games.  He is 0-1-1, plus-5, in six career games against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

The king of goal scorers is back.  After posting just seven goals in his first 19 games this season, Alex Ovechkin has ten in his last ten games.  His eight even strength goals is equal to the total goal production of the second-highest goal scorer over the period (Mika Zibanejad).  His 3.24 goals per 60 minutes over that span is second in the league among players appearing in five or more games (Rocco Grimaldi: 3.34).  No player in the NHL over that span has more total goals, and it isn’t as if his rating has suffered for so much time in the offensive end.  His plus-10 over that span is tied for fifth-best it the league. 

Ovechkin is chasing a record that a few weeks ago seemed out of reach.  Coming into this season Ovechkin recorded 30 or more goals in each of his first 15 seasons, tied with Mike Gartner for the most all-time to start a career.  A 30-goal season this year would allow Ovechkin to hold that record alone, and he would be within one of Gartner for the most 30-goal seasons in NHL history (17).  With 17 goals in 29 games, he is on a pace to finish with exactly 30 goals.  Ovechkin has three goals in four games against New York this season and is 38-20-58, minus-11, in 63 career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

Scoring has been the issue for the Caps against the Rangers this season.  They have managed only six goals in four games, going 1-3-0 in the process.  Perhaps it is the Caps having a bit too much respect for the Rangers’ team speed, their inability to solve the Rangers’ forechecking, or just a matter of the Rangers being “that team,” the kind of team you might find in any sport that seems to have one opponents’ number, at least for a season.  It is past time for the Caps to assert themselves.

Capitals 4 – Rangers 2

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

 

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 32: Capitals 4 - Devils 3

The Washington Capitals opened a two-game set with the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night at Capital One Arena.  The Caps were trying to return to the winning ways that saw them cobble together a seven-game winning streak before it was ended by the New York Rangers last Saturday.  They were also looking to go 5-0-0 against the Devils this season.  New Jersey was looking to build on their own two-game winning streak and capture a fifth win in their last six games.  The Caps seemed out of sorts for stretches during the game, but contributions from a variety of sources allowed them to hang on for a 4-3 win.

First Period

It took the visitors just 83 seconds to put the first marker on the board.  A sliding puck made its way all the way to goalie Vitek Vanecek, but he suffered a brain lock in trying to figure out to whom he wanted to pass the puck.  In the indecision, the puck slid off his stick, and Nick Merkley stuffed it between his pads to give the Devils the early 1-0 lead.

Washington tied the game 1:47 later when Dmitry Orlov took a cross-ice pass from Justin Schultz and from the left point fired a shot through a screen set up by Conor Sheary in front of goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, the shot hitting the far post and caroming in to make it 1-1.

The Caps went to the power play at the 6:13 mark when Yegor Sherangovich was sent off for hooking.  The Caps managed a single shot on goal and were kept off the scoreboard.  The Devils got their first power play 13:39 into the period when Zdeno Chara was hit with a slashing call.  New Jersey had three shots on goal in their man advantage, but they were unsuccessful getting any of them past Vanecek. 

The Devils got another power play at 18:15 but did not score before the period ended.  The teams went to the first intermission tied, 1-1, the Devils carrying over 15 seconds of a power play into the second period.

-- New Jersey outshot the Caps, 11-4, and out-attempted them, 25-11.

-- Washington had a 12-4 edge in credited hits, Garnet Hathaway leading the team with three.

-- John Carlson led the team in shot attempts with three.

-- Nicklas Backstrom was a perfect 4-for-4 on faceoffs.

Second Period

New Jersey did not score on the remaining 15 seconds of their power play to open the period, but they did take the lead back in the seventh minute when Miles Wood, shooting from a severe angle to Vanecek’s left, somehow found space between Vanecek, who was stapled to the left post, and the post to sneak the puck through to make it a 2-1 game at the 6:20 mark.

Washington tied it 55 seconds later when Alex Ovechkin one-timed a pass from Daniel Sprong and beat Blackwood from the left wing faceoff dot, tying the game at 2-2 7:15 into the period.

The Caps took their first lead of the game on a “let’s all meet at the net” play.  Ovechkin started the play with a blistering shot from the right wing circle that Blackwood defended, but could not control.  The puck popped into the air and fell into the slot as Brenden Dillion and Daniel Sprong caused havoc in front of Blackwood.  Evgeny Kuznetsov came in late, collected the loose puck and circled down and to the right of Blackwood.  His shot from just above the goal line snuck behind Blackwood and made it a 3-2 game 11:47 into the period.  That would be the end of the scoring through 40 minutes.

-- Daniel Sprong had a pair of assists and was a plus-3 through two periods.

-- Washington outshot the Devils, 9-6, in the second period and out-attempted them, 18-17.

-- John Carlson was one of five Caps with two shots on goal and led the team with six shot attempts through 40 minutes.

Third Period

The teams went back and forth to no productive end over the first half of the period minutes, but New Jersey was awarded a power play at the 10:38 mark, Nick Jensen going off for cross-checking.  The Devils converted the power play chance to tie the game, Jesper Bratt one-timing a pass from Ty Smith from the right wing circle over the glove of Vanecek on the near side at the 11:04 mark.

Once more, though the Caps responded immediately.  Justin Schultz fired the puck to the net from the right wing wall, a shot that was redirected by Kuznetsov and then off the skate of Devils defenseman Damon Severson past Blackwood to make it 4-3 12:06 into the period.

The Caps had a power play chance 20 seconds later when Sami Vatanen was sent to the penalty box for hooking.  They did not convert and clung to their one-goallead.

New Jersey pulled Blackwood for an extra skater late, but they could not find the equalizer, the Caps skating off with a 4-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps’ first, second, and fourth goals were scored just 1:47, 0:55, and 1:02 after New Jersey goals.

-- Evgeny Kuznetosv’s two goals were his first on home ice this season.  It was his 16^th career multi-goal game, tying Mike Green for 17^th place on the Caps’ all-time list.

-- Alex Ovechkin had a goal and an assist, his 369^th multi-point game of his career. He is the all-time leader in this category for the Capitals.

-- Daniel Sprong had two assists, the seventh multi-point game of his career and first for the Caps.

-- Justin Schultz had a pair of assists, his 40^th career multi-point game and fifth with the Caps, all of them this season.

-- Jakub Vrana skated only three shifts in the third period after getting six shifts in each of the first two periods.

-- New Jersey outshot the Caps, 24-22, and out-attempted them, 55-49.  Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with four shots on goal; John Carlson led in shot attempts with nine.

-- Garnet Hathaway was credited with eight hits, almost as many as the entire Devils’ team posted (nine).

-- Zdeno Chara had six of the Caps’ 16 blocked shots.

-- Nic Dowd finished the game winning 11 of 17 faceoffs (64.7 percent).

In the end…

The Caps started sluggishly in this game and were out of sorts for stretches throughout.  However, they got a lot of contributions from different players, as the “other stuff” above indicates.  They had the good fortune of playing a team without a lot of depth in skill, but it seemed more a matter of four-day rust accumulation since their last game on Saturday than lack of effort.  With a rematch in less than 24 hours, more focus and energy should be sufficient to sweep this two-game set.

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 31/32: Devils at Capitals, March 25/26

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have had uninterrupted success against the New Jersey Devils the season.  After winning the first four meetings between the clubs to date, the Caps get a chance to add a pair of victories on Thursday and Friday when the Devils visit Capital One Arena.  Despite losing to the New York Rangers in their last outing, the Caps go into this two-game set with seven wins in their last eight games and a 14-3-1 record since February 16^th, their .806 points percentage tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning for best in the league over that span.  On the other side, the Devils arrive in Washington with a more modest four wins in five games, but it is a considerable improvement over the previous 14 games, over which they went 2-10-2.

An important ingredient in that recent success for the Devils has been goaltending.  Scott Wedgewood is 1-1-0, 2.56, .930,and his are the inferior numbers between the two New Jersey netminders.  Mackenzie Blackwood is 3-0-0, 1.97, .942 in his three appearances over those five games.  That .942 save percentage is the fifth-best in the league among 24 goalies logging at least 120 minutes over that span, and his .941 even strength save percentage is also fifth-best in the league among 13 goalies appearing in at least three games.  Blackwood’s three straight wins follow a ghastly nine-game stretch over which he went 1-8-0, 3.84, .866, and in all of those games he allowed three or more goals.  He allowed a total of only six goals in his three-game win streak.  Balckwood is 0-2-0, 3.58, .848 in two appearances against the Caps this season, 1-5-0, 3.48, .878 in six career appearances against Washington.

Back to Wedgewood, he has had an odd run of late.  Half of his last six appearances have gone to extra time, all of them losses, Gimmick losses to Buffalo and the New York Islanders and a 5-3 overtime loss to the Caps on March 9^th, his only appearance against the Caps so far this season.  Another odd part of his record to date is that he does not get much in terms of goal support.  In ten appearances this season he is 0-4-2 when allowing three of more goals, 3-0-1 when allowing two or fewer.  In four career games against the Caps, Wedgewood is 1-0-3, 2.63, .903.

It is not as if the Devils have burned out goal lamps over their recent 4-1-0 run.  They have 13 goals over those five games, and no skater has more than two.  However, four of the nine skaters with goals over this stretch have a pair – Travis Zajac, Yegor Sharangovich, Sami Vatanen, and Kyle Palmieri.  Now in his 11^th season but still just 30 years old, Palmieri has emerged as a potential trade asset as the Devils look to be sellers more than buyers as the trading deadline approaches.  Palmieri is in the last year of a five-year/$23.35 million contract with New Jersey.  He has been a very reliable point producer in recent seasons.  Since being traded to the Devils from Anaheim for a pair of draft picks I June 2015, he has posted more than 50 points in three of five seasons preceding this one and has averaged 56 points per 82 games over that period.  His points are down a bit on a per game basis so far this season, but his 15 points in 29 games is still tied for fourth on the team, and his five power play points is tied with P.K. Subban for the team lead.  Palmieri has a pair of assists in four games against the Caps this season and is 6-7-13, minus-2, in 25 career games against Washington.

1.  Miles Wood leads the Devils with nine goals.  No team has a leading goal scorer with fewer goals; Anaheim (Adam Henrique/Max Comtois) and Detroit (Robby Fabbri) also have a leading goal scorer with nine goals.

2.  New Jersey is a far more productive offensive team on the road than at home this season, averaging 3.23 goals per game (fifth in the league) away from Prudential Center and 1.94 goals per game at home (30^th in the league).

3.  The Devils’ penalty kill on the road does not leave much to be desired, it leaves everything to be desired.  Their 62.8 percent road penalty kill is not only last in the league this season, it is the worst road penalty kill since the Los Angeles Kings had a 61.8 road penalty kill in 1982-1983.

4.  New Jersey does itself no favors early in games on the road on offense.  The six first period goals they scored so far this season is second-fewest in the league (Dallas: 5).  On the other hand, only four teams have allowed fewer goals on the road in the first period than the eight allowed by the Devils (Anaheim: 7; Arizona: 7; Vegas: 6; Colorado: 5)

5.  The Devils have eight road wins this season.  Six of them were by one goal, three of those in extra time.

1.  Only Vegas has more one-goal wins on home ice this season (seven) than the Caps (six).  They are one of only three teams in the league without a one-goal loss in regulation at home (Tampa Bay and Carolina are the others).

2.  Washington has almost as many goals scored in the second period of games on home ice (24) as total goals in the first and third periods combined (26).

3.  Only four teams have allowed more third period goals on home ice than the Caps (21).  Arizona (22), Detroit (22), New Jersey (23), and Anaheim (25) have more.

4.  The Caps have fewer power play chances per game on home ice (2.50) than any team in the league except the Islanders (2.31).

5.  It would not surprise any Caps fans that neither Brenden Dillon or Nick Jensen have a goal scored on home ice this season.  It might surprise more people that Evgeny Kuznetsov doesn’t have one, either.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Jesper Bratt

Over the Devils’ recent 4-1-0 run, Jesper Bratt and Travis Zajac lead the team with five points apiece.  For Bratt, who will carry a five-game points streak into the game against Washington on Thursday, it is part of a streaky season to date.  After starting the season without a point in his firat two games, Bratt peeled off a four-game points streak (all assists).  He followed that with just two points in his next seven games, but over his last 11 games he is 1-8-9, even.

What has been missing most from Bratt’s game so far this season is goal scoring.  After posting a career high 16 goals in 60 games last season with a 15.8 shooting percentage (also a career high), Bratt has only two goals on 54 shots (3.7 percent) in 24 games this season.  His point production, whether scoring goals himself or assisting on them, matter, especially to a team that does not have elite scoring elsewhere in the lineup.  The Devils are 8-4-1 in the 13 games in which he has a point, 1-8-2 in 11 games in which he does not.  There is also his offensive engagement generally.  New Jersey is 4-9-1 in 14 games in which he recorded two or fewer shots on goal, 5-3-2 in the ten games in which he had three or more shots on goal.  Bratt is 0-1-1, minus-1, in four games against the Caps this season, 1-2-3, even, in 13 career games against Washington.

Washington: Vitek Vanecek

He has no chance to catch Michal Neuvirth for the team record in wins in a season by a rookie goaltender (27), but Vitek Vanecek could become only the third rookie netminder in Caps history to hit the 20-win mark (Bob Mason had 20 in 1986-1987).  With 13 wins in 22 games, the biggest factor that would prevent him in reaching that goal is Ilya Samsonov appearing to re-establish himself as the number one goalie after Vanecek shouldered the load when Samsonov was laid up with COVID earlier in the season.

If anything, Vanecek’s performance is improving.  He started the season with a seven-game unbeaten streak, but he followed that up with a four-game losing streak.  Over the 11 games overall he was 5-3-2, 3.26, .901.  Since then, he is 8-2-1, 2.06, .923, with one shutout.  The eight wins are tied for seventh in the league over that span.  Of 41 goalies logging at least 400 minutes over that period, his 2.06 goals against average ranks seventh, and his .923 save percentage ranks 12^th.  Among rookies over that same period, he ranks tied for second in wins (Kaapo Kahkonen: 9), fourth in goals against average, and fourth in save percentage.  Vanecek is 2-0-0, 2.97, .891 in his two appearances to date against New Jersey.

In the end…

If history is a guide here, you would think this could get ugly for the Devils, based on special teams.  The Caps are 4-for-6 in two games against an historically bad penalty kill on the road.  Two of the four power play goals scored by the Caps came in the first 30 seconds of a man advantage, one of them just seven seconds in.

Capitals 5 – Devils 2

Capitals 4 – Devils 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 10

If Week 9 was an eventful week for the Washington Capitals in some unfortunate ways -- Tom Wilson’s suspension, Lars Eller’s injury – then Week 10 was eventful in a good way.  A winning week, a goal streak, and even with a loss in the last game of the week, the Caps were once more sitting atop the East Division.

Record: 3-1-0

It was an odd week in terms of wins and losses.  In order, the Caps had their largest margin of victory for the season (a 6-0 win over Buffalo to start the week), perhaps their best overall game of the season in a 3-1 win over the New York Islanders, a come-from-behind win against the New York Rangers, and a loss to the Rangers in which they dominated in most aspects of the game but allowed a late tie-breaking goal and an empty netter to end a seven-game winning streak.  Even with the week ending loss, the Caps finished Week 10 with the best record in the league over their last 18 games since February 16^th (14-3-1).  And, with the win over Buffalo to start the week, the Caps won their tenth road game of the season.  They wrapped up the week as one of four teams in the league with at least ten wins at home and at least ten wins on the road (Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina are the others).

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 3.35 / 5th)

It was a week of declining output on offense, half of the week’s scoring coming in the first game of the week (six goals against Buffalo), followed by games of three, two, and one goals.  The Caps were quite efficient against the Sabres, potting six goals on 30 shots (20.0 percent), not much of a surprise against the 28^th-ranked scoring defense in the league and 30^th-ranked scoring defense on home ice.  The Caps struggled as the week wore on, though, scoring three goals on 22 shots against the Islanders (13.6 percent), two goals on 18 shots in the first game against the Rangers (11.1 percent), and one goal on 29 shots in the rematch against the Rangers (3.5 percent).

Eight Capitals recorded goals for the week, led by Alex Ovechkin, who had four goals in the first three games of the week, including two game-winners, before he was blanked in the last game of the week to end a five-game goal streak.  The four goals allowed him to catch and pass Phil Esposito for sixth-place on the all-time goal scoring list.  Nicklas Backstrom was the other Capital with a multi-goal week (two), and Evgeny Kuznetsov had the other game-winning goal.

Sixteen of 19 skaters dressed in Week 10 posted points, led by Ovechkin (five).  Backstrom and Justin Schultz recorded point-per-game weeks with four point apiece.

Defense: 1.25/game (season: 2.90 / T-16th)

The Caps found defense in Week 10, the 1.25 goals per game allowed being fewest in the league for the week.  Much of that was due to allowing only 25.8 shots on goal per game, tied for third-fewest in the league (with, as it turned out, the Rangers, who the Caps played twice).  It made the shot attempts numbers a bit misleading.  The Caps allowed 174 shot attempts at 5-on-5, eighth most in the league for the week and in the top half of the 19 teams playing four games for the week.  However, of the 206 shot attempts allowed in all situations, opponents totaled 55 missed shots, about a game’s worth of shot attempts for the week.

It was a combination that resulted in only two 5-on-5 goals scored against the Caps for the week, tied with Tampa Bay for fewest in the league.  Three Caps were on ice for two even strength goals against – John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Alex Ovechkin.  At the other end, four Caps playing in all four games were on ice for no even strength goals against – Nicklas Backstrom, Conor Sheary, Richard Panik, and Dmitry Orlov.

Goaltending: 1.01 / .961 / 1 shoutout (season: 2.65 / .908 / 1 shutout)

Week 10 was one of those rare weeks this season in which the goaltending duties were split roughly down the middle.  Ilya Samsonov got two starts, logging 118:18 in ice time, and Vitek Vanecek had two starts, playing 120 minutes.  Both had excellent numbers. Samsonov was 1-1-0, 1.52, .935 for the week, but Vanecek was even better, going 2-0-0, 0.50, .982 and posting his first career shutout in the Caps’ 6-0 win over Buffalo to start the week. 

Vanecek was a perfect 46-for-46 in the last 40 minutes of games and did not allow an even strength goal in his 118 minutes of play.   Samsonov allowed only two even strength goals for the week on 40 even strength shots faced.  The two games Samsonov had this week were his first games on home ice this season after going 5-0-1 I seven road appearances (one no-decision).

Power Play: 2-for-11 / 18.2 percent (season: 25.6 percent / 8th)

For about five minutes, the Caps’ power play was quite good in Week 10.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom scored power play goals just over five minutes apart straddling the second and third periods in the Caps’ 3-1 win over the New York Islanders in the second game of the week.  Other than that, it was a dry well, going without one in nine other chances.

The confounding part of the week was the Caps absence of any success against the New York Rangers.  An 0-for-5 effort over two games left the Caps 0-for-13 in four games against the New Yorkers.  Washington is the only team the Rangers have faced who have yet to record a single power goal against.  An odd parenthetical to that fact, the Rangers are just 29-for 38/76.3 percent in penalty killing against the weakest teams in the division (New Jersey, Buffalo, and Philadelphia).  However, they are 55-for-59/93.2 percent against the four teams in the playoff mix (the Caps, Pittsburgh, Boston, and the Islanders).

Washington managed only 12 power play shots on goal in 20:18 of power play ice time.  Alex Ovechkin had almost half of those shots (five) with T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov recording a pair of shots apiece.  Jakub Vrana had the other shot on goal to complete the record.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-9 / 77.8 percent (season: 81.1 percent / 12th)

The Caps did a reasonable job in holding down power play chances for opponents, allowing only nine such chances in four games (a welcome development after allowing 43 chances over the previous four weeks) and not allowing more than three in any single game.  It was that efficiency, plus allowing only 11 power play shots 16:37 of ice time that allowed the Caps to break even on special teams for the week with two goals scored and two goals allowed.

Faceoffs: 104-for-196 / 53.1 percent (season: 48.6 percent / 21st)

It was a very good week for the Caps in the faceoff circle.  They topped 50 percent in all three zones for the week and were better in the ends (55.0 percent in the offensive end, 52.6 percent in the defensive end) than they were in the neutral zone (51.7 percent).  And while the Rangers finished the week as the worst team in the league in faceoff winning percentage, the Caps did also face the seventh and ninth ranked teams (the Islanders and Sabres, respectively). 

Nic Dowd had an especially productive week.  His 66.7 percent wins ranked second in the league among 111 players taking at least 25 draws (David Krejci was first with 71.0 percent).  T.J. Oshie had a fine week as well, posting a 60.9 win percentage which would have ranked him 12^th in that same group but for the fact he took 23 draws.

Among the other Caps taking at least ten draws for the week, Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov struggled, neither of them reaching 45 percent in wins.

Goals by Period:

The Caps had some trouble getting started in games, posting only one goal in the first periods of games in Week 10.  They came on late, though, with five second period goals and six third period goals (only Edmonton and Colorado scored more third period goals for the week with eight apiece).  Allowing no second period goals (only San Jose and Ottawa allowed no second period goals in addition to the Caps in Week 10) and only two non-empty netters in the third periods of games gave the Caps a commanding 11-2 edge in non-empty net goals over the last two periods of games.

The five second period goals put the Caps at the top of the rankings in second period goals for the season (45).  And, their plus-14 second period goal differential is tied with Montreal for the top spot in the league.

Year-over-Year:

The Caps are making up some ground in the year-over-year numbers, not surprising given the recent seven-game winning streak.  One thing that does stand out is that over the first 31 games of the season, the Caps have recorded 102 fewer shots on goal than at a similar point last season, a 10.5 percent drop.  Shots on goal against are down, too, but the shot differential is deep into minus territory this season (minus-43) whereas last season through 31 games the Caps were at plus-9.  The Caps are slightly better in shooting percentage as a result of fewer shots (perhaps a product of quality versus quantity), recording a 12.0 percent shooting efficiency compared to 11.5 percent at a similar point last season.

The Caps have also been significantly more economical with the puck, recording 101 fewer giveaways than at a similar point last season.  How these are scored is a product of interpretation as much as anything else, but a 31.8 percent drop is significant, nonetheless.

In the end…

The loss to the Rangers to end the week aside, the Caps remain on a lengthy run of good fortune.  Continuing that trend will be important over the next seven games, six of which will be against teams not in the playoff mix (four against New Jersey, two against the Rangers).  The most encouraging signs coming out of Week 10 is the defensive stinginess exhibited by the Caps, perhaps a sign that things are become more instinctive than a product of thinking about assignments.  Maintaining that defensive focus will be one of, if not the most important ingredient to keeping the team at the top of the East Division heap.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (4-1-5, plus-4, passed Phil Esposito for sixth place in all-time NHL goal scoring, 16 shots on goal, two game-winning goals, nine credited hits, 20:52 in ice time per game, passed the 1,300 points mark in his career (35^th player in NHL history to do so))
• Second Star: Vitek Vanecek (2-0-0, .050, .982, first career NHL shutout, finished week tied for fourth in wins (13), leads all rookie goalies in wins and minutes played (1,286:05))
• Third Star: Nicklas Backstrom (2-2-4, plus-3, five shots on goal, 19:29 in average ice time per game, on ice for no even strength goals scored against)

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 30: Capitals 2 - Rangers 1

The Washington Capitals hosted the New York Rangers on Friday night in the first of a back-to-back set of games at Capital One Arena.  The Caps were looking to extend a six-game winning streak and widen their lead in the East Division, while the Rangers were trying to build some momentum after their 9-0 pasting of the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday night. The Caps spotted the Rangers a goal, and it almost held up.  But Alex Ovechkin put an end to that mischief with two late goals, and the Caps escaped with a 2-1 win.

First Period

The Caps had the edge in possession early, but the Rangers caught up, and then some, when they went on a power play 15:21 into the period.  Nicklas Backstrom was sent off for tripping.  The Rangers converted at 16:42 when Artemi Panarin one-timed a cross-ice pass from Ryan Strome that goalie Vitek Vanecek got a piece of  but not enough to prevent it from crawling over the goal line.

Washington got its first power when Filip Chytil was sent off for hooking at 17:32.  The Caps did not convert, and the teams went to the first intermission with the Rangers in front, 1-0.

-- The Caps held the Rangers without a shot on goal for the first 9:21 of the period; the first four shot attempts by New York were misses.  The Rangers had nine missed shots in the period.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 8-5, and out-attempted them, 21-17.

-- Nicklas Backstrom skated a team high ten shifts in the period; Justin Schultz led in ice time with 7:28.

Second Period

There was much back and forth with no result in the first when Brendan Lemieux for the Brenden Dillon for the Caps were sent off for unsportsmanlike conduct at 11:36 of the period to put the teams 4-on-4.  Neither team could take advantage of more open ice, and the Rangers hung on to their 1-0 lead.  They would hang on for the remainder of the period, taking a 1-0 lead to the locker room after 40 minutes.

-- The Rangers outshot the Caps, 11-6, in the period and out-attempted them, 18-13.

-- Conor Sheary and Nick Jensen led the Caps with two shots apiece through two periods; three Caps had four shot attempts (Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Jensen).

-- Neither Brenden Dillon nor Garnet Hathaway had a shot attempt in 40 minutes, but they had five and four credited hits, respectively.

-- Nic Dowd was 9-for-11 on faceoffs through two periods.

Third Period

Things started poorly for the Caps in the final frame, Brenden Dillon going off for hooking just 31 seconds into the period.  Washington killed the penalty to remain within a goal of tying the contest.  They had to kill another mid-way through the period, Richard Panik going off for holding the stick at 10:46 of the period.

The Caps killed the penalty and were rewarded in the 14^th minute when they tied the game.  Dmitry Orlov fed the puck to Justin Schultz in the left wing circle for a one timer that got through to the paint.  Evgeny Kuznetsov nudged the loose puck to the top of the crease, and Alex Ovechkin swatted it into the open net past goalie Alexandar Georgiev at the 13:18 mark.

Ovechkin scored from almost the same spot three minutes later.  A John Carlson attempt got through to Georgiev, but the puck squirted out in front.  Ovechkin hip-checked teammate Garnet Hathaway out of the play, settled the puck, and backhanded it past Georgiev to make it 2-1, Caps, at the 16:27 mark.

The Caps held the Rangers off for the last 3:33 to win in come-from-behind fashion, 2-1.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin’s two goals gave him 147 career multi-goal games, seven behind Mario Lemieux for third place in multi-goal games since 1979-1980.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 33-18, and out-attempted them, 60-49.

-- No Capital had more than two shots on goal. Ovechkin, Nick Jensen, Justin Schultz, and Conor Sheary each had a pair.

-- Ovechkin led the team with seven shot attempts.

-- Brenden Dillon led the team with six credited hits.

-- Nic Dowd finished the game 14-for-17 on faceoffs (82.4 percent).

-- Richard Panik was the only skater to take the ice for the Caps who did not record a shot attempt.  Trevor van Rimesdyk did not, but he did not take a shift in the game.

-- John Carlson led the team in ice time (23:12); Daniel Sprong had the least among players taking the ice (9:11).

-- The Rangers had as many missed shots (18) as the Caps had shots on goal (18).

-- With his 32-for-33 effort in goal, Vitek Vanecek is not 8-2-1, 1.97, .923, with one shutout over his last 11 games.

In the end…

It was a boring game for more than 50 minutes, which played into the visitors’ hands.  But then the Captain took over, leaving his “office” (left wing circle) for his “annex” (top of the crease) to get a pair of greasy goals that one would see in a playoff setting.  As the Caps go forth in the second half of the season, it is a welcome development.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 30/31: Rangers at Capitals, March 19/20

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals continue their six-game home stand on Friday and Saturday when they host the New York Rangers in a back-to-back set of games at Capital One Arena.  These will be the first two of three games the Caps will have against the Rangers on this home stand, and they hope to turn things around this weekend after dropping their first two meetings against the Rangers back in February, a 4-2 loss in New York and a 4-1 loss at Capital One Arena. 

The Rangers might not be a Stanley Cup contender this season, but they are showing signs of returning to competitiveness.  After a 4-7-3 start to the season, the Blueshirts are 8-5-1 over their last 14 games since February 18^th, culminating in a 9-0 pasting of the Philadelphia Flyers at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night.

The welcome, if not entirely unexpected outcome of the recent Rangers’ success is the production of forward Pavel Buchnevich.  Over the 14-game stretch, Buchnevich has been the Rangers’ leading scorer with 17 points in 13 games (6-11-17).  He also has the highest plus-minus rating over that stretch (plus-10).  The recent production has put Buchnevich on almost a point-per-game pace for the season (a team-leading 26 points in 27 games).  It is quite a step forward for a player who already exhibited some promise as a point producer over his first four seasons.  Over those first four years, Buchnevich posted a scoring line of 59-88-147 in 247 games, a 20-29-49 pace per 82 games.  Compare that to the 30-48-78 scoring pace per 82 games he has so far this season.

It is not a bad career start for a player taken in the third round of the 2013 Entry Draft, two spots ahead of Jake Guentzel (by Pittsburgh). He ranks 13^th in his draft class in career goals scored (69) and 15^th in points (173).  If Pavel Buchnevich has been a consistent scorer over the last 14 games, Artemi Panarin has been more productive, albeit in a more limited role.  Panarin dressed for only five of the last 14 games, going 2-7-9, plus-4, and leading the team in points per game (1.80).  He missed more than two weeks in that span, taking a leave of absence from the team following allegations of an assault incident in 2011.  Panarin and the club denied the allegations, suggesting they were an intimidation tactic in response to political comments from Panarin. 

Panarin returned to the lineup last Saturday, posing points in all three games he played (2-4-6), his two goals scored in economic fashion, on a total of four shots on goal.  The three-game streak since his return extended his points streak to five games overall (2-7-9).  He has been consistent in his year-to-date scoring, posting points in 13 of the 17 games in which he played, a total that includes eight multi-point games.  His 1.41 points per game this season ranks third among all NHL players who have appeared in 15 or more games.  It has not been a sudden improvement for Panarin, either.  In 86 games with the Rangers over his season and a half with the club, he is 39-80-119, plus-40.  Those 119 points rank fifth in the league over that span, while his 1.38 points per game ranks third.  Panarin is 8-12-20, plus-7, in 17 career games against the Caps.

Chris Kreider leads the Rangers in goals over their 14-game run of success with ten, a total that leads the league over that span.  Kreider has been a dependable 20-goal scorer for the Rangers over the last six seasons preceding this one (five 20-goal seasons and a 16 goal season in 58 games in 2017-2018), but he has stepped up his production in this one, averaging a career-high 0.50 goals per game in 28 games.  Those ten goals over his last 14 games includes two hat trick, the first in a 4-3 loss in Philadelphia to the Flyers on February 24^th and the other in a 6-1 win over the Devils in New Jersey on March 4^th.  They were the third and fourth hat tricks of his career.  Kreider is on the brink of hitting a couple of offensive milestones. With one goal he would tie Anders Hedberg (172) for 20^th place in Rangers history, and with four points he would tie Ron Duguay for 30^th place in points (330) in team history.  Kreider is 6-6-12, minus-3, in 28 career games against Washington.

1.  New York has had scoring balance lately.  Over their recent 8-5-1 run, 19 skaters have at least one goal, and every one of the 24 skaters to dress for the Rangers have at least one point.  

2.  The Rangers have dressed a lot of defensemen over their 14-game run, but they have been productive as a group.  Of nine defensemen appearing in at least one game, six have goals (Brendan Smtih has two), and all of them have points.

3.  The Rangers’ have had scoring balance by period on the road this season -- 12 first period goals, 13 second period goals, and 12 third period goals.

4.  New York has displayed a physical edge in road games this season, averaging 25.96 hits per 60 minutes, fourth-most in the league.

5. The Rangers have proved adept at pilfering the puck when on the road as well, averaging a league-high 6.58 takeaways per 60 minutes.

1. Washington has the best record in the league since February 16^th (13-2-1/.844 points percentage).  Over that same span, the Caps and the Minnesota Wild are the only teams with top-five scoring offense (Washington: 3.44 goals per game/fifth; Minnesota: 3.50/T-third) and scoring defense (Washington: 2.31/fourth; Minnesota: 2.13/second).

2.  Over that 16-game span, the Caps have 23 second period goals, second-best in the league.  They trail only the Rangers (but that seven-spot against the Flyers on Wednesday didn’t hurt).

3.  The Caps are 9-0-0 when scoring first over that 16-game run, one of four teams with a perfect record and tied with Vegas for most wins with a perfect record in that situation.

4.  The Caps have been good at one-goal games, even if they have had to give up multi-goal leads to get there.  Their 5-0-1 record in one goal games in their 13-2-1 run is best in the league by winning percentage (.833).

5.  The Capitals have beaten the Rangers by three or more goals 28 times on home ice in the all-time regular season series.  Only the New Jersey Devils have suffered more such losses to the Caps in Washington in the regular season (33).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Mika Zibanejad

What a difference a year makes.  Last season, Mika Zibanejad posted a career high in goals with 41 in just 57 games (a 59-goal pace over 82 games) and did it most efficiently, his 19.7 percent shooting being a career best as well.  He also became the 44^th player in NHL history to record five goals in a single game, potting five, including the overtime game-winner, in a 6-5 win over the Caps on March 6, 2020.  This season as another matter…until Wednesday night.

Until Wednesday night, Zibanejad was 3-8-11, minus-5, shooting 3.9 percent this season, and looking like one of the more overpaid forwards in the league ($5.3 million cap hit this year and next).  And then the Philadelphia Flyers came to town, a team against which he was 6-4-10, minus-19, in 29 career games.  The Rangers took a 2-0 lead into the second period when Zibanejad assisted on a Pavel Buchnevich goal to make it 3-0.  Two minutes later he assisted on another Buchnevich goal.  Then he recorded an assist on a Jacob Trouba goal.  That would be prelude to his recording a natural hat trick over a span of 10:10 to give him three goals and three assists, tying an NHL record for points in a single period, leading the Rangers to a 9-0 win.  Bryan Trottier did it for the New York Islanders in a 9-4 win over the Rangers in 1978, also with three goals and three assists.  Zibanejad also became the first player in Rangers’ history to record a natural hat trick with an even strength, a power play, and a shorthanded goal.

Is it a signal that he is breaking out of his year-long slump, or a brief respite from a dismal season.  Given that Zibanejad scored five goals in a game against the Caps last season, it will be one of the primary story lines for this game.  In 27 career games against the Caps, Zibanejad is 11-10-21, minus-5.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

Garnet Hathaway is not expected to be the offensive producer that Mika Zibanejad is for the Rangers, but his offense has upticked lately.  After going 14 games with a single point (a goal), Hathaway has points in three of his last four contests (1-3-4, plus-6).  He is an example of how important getting that next level of scoring (or next-next level) is for success.  Washington is 7-2-0 in the nine games in which he has a point this season, 4-0-0 in games in which he recorded a goal.  And it isn’t just scoring, it is offensive engagement generally.  The Caps are 12-2-3 in the 17 games in which Hathaway had at least one shot on goal. 

And, although physical play is his hallmark, it has not really translated into success, at least using the typical measures.  The Caps are 6-2-4 in 12 games in which he was credited with at least four hits, and they are 6-3-0 in games in which he spent time in the penalty box.  Ice time is a positive indicator, not surprising when bottom six forwards get more work when the Caps are ahead in games.  Washington is 14-3-2 in 19 games in which Hathaway logged at least 12 minutes, 5-3-2 in ten games in which he skated less than 12 minutes.  During the Caps’ six-game winning streak going into Friday’s game, his ice time has ramped up to an average of 12:36 per game (he averages 12:18 for the season overall).  Hathaway is 5-1-6, plus-5, in eight career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

The Caps are entering a part of their schedule where they need to take advantage of teams well below them in the standings.  Starting with Friday’s game against the Rangers, the Caps will face the Blueshirts four times and the New Jersey Devils twice over their next six games.  But don’t sleep on the Rangers.  Yes, a 9-0 win is out of the ordinary, but the Rangers are a team with offensive skill that is starting to come together.  They lack consistency, though, and this is a trait the Caps have displayed in their results over the last month (even if there have been scary moments in games while getting there).  Both teams come into this two-game set having played what are arguably their best games of the season.  But the Caps are deeper, more responsible defensively (lately), more experienced, and more consistent.  That should be a recipe for a sweep against the pesky New Yorkers.

Capitals 4 – Rangers 3

Capitals 4 – Rangers 2