Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera

Theme: “I have one speed, I have one gear: go!”
-- Charlie Sheen

Jason Chimera has scored three goals in the post season in his career. Each of them was a game-winning goal. If only he could do that more often…score goals, that is. Chimera is gifted as one of the fastest skaters in the league, capable of beating defensemen wide with speed or jumping into a rush to pressure defenses.

But he has developed a problem finishing. In his last five seasons spanning 371 games, Chimera has 62 goals on 786 shots, a 7.9 percent shooting percentage. Last season he had 10 goals on 162 shots, a 6.2 percent shooting percentage. Thirty one defensemen who played in at least 70 games – including teammate John Erskine – had a higher a shooting percentage last season (the nature of the position does not make for high shooting percentages). In his last 28 games Chimera had two goals on 46 shots, a 4.3 percent shooting percentage.

And it is not as if Chimera does not get his chances. Last season his 162 shots on goal ranked sixth on the team. Among forwards it was more than the combined shot totals of Matt Bradley and Boyd Gordon (135), was 60 more than Marcus Johansson, almost 50 more than Matt Hendricks. It was the same number as Chris Stewart of the St. Louis Blues, who happened to score 28 goals (ok, 17.3 percent shooting might be unusual; it was tied for sixth among league forwards).

His recent history is at odds with his early career, during which he had a shooting percentage of 12.0 percent on 299 shots in his first 210 NHL games. So what is the problem? Maybe a lack of reliable linemates? Last season Chimera played more than 100 minutes at 5-on-5 with eight different forward teammates. Mike Knuble played in more than 150 more even strength minutes than did Chimera and played more than 100 minutes at 5-on-5 with only four forward teammates (source: stats.hockeyanalysis.com). It might be the nature of a third or fourth line forward to see more mixing and matching of linemates, but Chimera had more 5-on-5 minutes with Nicklas Backstrom (a top line center) than he had with Matt Bradley (a fourth line forward). Chimera was all over the place as far as line assignments go. Might it affect chemistry and his shooting results? We’re just tossing that out there.

Fearless’ Take: Chimera got off to a pretty good start in 2010-2011. He was 4-6-10 in his first 21 games with a 9.5 percent shooting percentage. That was a 16-23-39 scoring pace over 82-games. The 16 goals would have been more in line with his production when he was at Columbus (a 15 goals-per-82 game pace). In fact, counting those first 21 games of last season, Chimera was 11-16-27 in his first 60 games as a Cap, a respectable 15-22-37 scoring pace. He has it in him; the matter is whether he has 82 games worth of it in him.

Cheerless’ Take: If Chimera isn’t chipping in the occasional goal or getting involved in scoring, does he bring other things? He was fifth among the team’s forwards in hits last season (98), but that number was good for a tie for 135th in the league. He was ninth on the club in blocked shots among forwards (tied for 316th among league forwards). But the bigger problem might be defense. He had the worst number last season among Caps forwards playing in as least 50 games for goals scored against while on ice at 5-on-5 (2.61; source: behindthenet.ca). That number was the same as that for Steven Stamkos, for comparison’s sake. Stamkos scores a bit more, though.

The Big Question… Does Chimera have bad hands, or did he just have a bad stretch last season?

In 16 playoff games with the Caps over two seasons Chimera has three goals. That is not bad production from a player getting most of his time on the bottom half of the forward lines. It is roughly a scoring pace that is consistent with his pre-Washington career. He had a rough – and long – stretch of games to close last season in which he had just those two goals in the last 28 regular season games. Was that merely a bad stretch, or has Chimera become a player whose ability to finish, even for a third or fourth liner, has diminished?

In the end…

Jason Chimera hasn’t averaged less than 12 minutes a game since he was playing in Edmonton in the early 2000’s. In four years in Columbus he saw his ice time increase each year until he averaged 17:30 a game in 2007-2008. But adding Troy Brouwer and Joel Ward would seem to encumber the wings on the third line (unless Brouwer gets second line work if Brooks Laich plays in the middle on the third line). If that is the case, Chimera would seem to be ticketed to playing on the fourth line. In one-plus seasons in Washington he has been a 13 minute or so per game player. That could get shaved some if he pulls fourth line duty.

Projection:  80 games, 10-14-24, -4

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