Dmitry Orlov
Theme: “Live as if
you were living already for the second time and as if you had acted the first
time as wrongly as you are about to act now!”
-- Vince Lombardi
At this time last year Dmitry Orlov was in rookie camp
preparing himself for what was expected to be a season in Hershey in which he
would develop both on and off the ice.
In fact he would be assigned to the AHL Hershey Bears in the first week
of October, one of the last cuts of training camp. His ability to stick around through both
rookie and training camps was a harbinger of things to come.
Orlov, who already had 19 regular season and six playoff
games for Hershey at the end of the 2010-2011 season, would not last that long
at Hershey in his second visit. He was
recalled from Hershey on November 20th after 15 games with the Bears, the Caps needing a spark
in the midst of 3-6-1 stretch. It was a
bit much to think that a rookie call-up could provide enough of a spark by
himself, and the Caps continued their slide, culminating in the firing of Head Coach
Bruce Boudreau a week after Orlov’s promotion.
Orlov stuck, though, playing in 60 of the last 64 games of
the regular season. He would finish the
regular season fourth in total scoring among rookie defensemen, tied for second
in assists, fifth in hits, 16th in blocked shots, sixth in
takeaways, and in the top-25 in average ice time. It was a very productive season for a
youngster who was supposed to spend the year in Hershey.
His underlying numbers were what one might have expected of
a rookie who was not thought of in the preseason as being a lock to make the
parent roster. He got a break in terms
of quality of competition (173rd of 198 defensemen playing in at
least 40 games) and offensive zone starts (82nd among that same
group). Even with those advantages his
Corsi value relative to quality of competition was 170th of those
198 defensemen, and his offensive zone finishes were 156th (all numbers from behindthenet.ca). There were possession issues in his game that
should not have been a surprise.
But with 60 NHL games under his belt he got a jump start on
his development. That is what makes the
lockout unfortunate in terms of Orlov’s progress. Delaying the chance to build on that
experience for a month or two, or worse an entire season, jeopardizes those
fortuitous gains.
Fearless’ Take…
Let us remember that Orlov is still only two months removed
from his 21st birthday. Since
the lockout Orlov is one of only 14 defensemen between the ages of 18 and 20 in
their first season who played in at least 60 games and recorded at least 19
points. And that list is rather
impressive, including as it does: Tyler Myers, Andrej Meszaros, Dion Phaneuf,
Drew Doughty, Michael Del Zotto, Cam Fowler, Victor Hedman, Justin Faulk, and
Erik Karlsson.
Cheerless’ Take…
Guys, here are two words for you…”play offs.” Orlov did not play so much as one second in
the post season. Jeff Schultz, who
dressed for only 29 of the last 55 regular season games, got a sweater for 10
of the Caps’ 14 playoff games. John
Erskine, who dressed for one game – one game – out of the last 33 regular
season games, got the other four playoff games as the sixth defenseman instead
of Orlov. Is he really ready for prime
time?
The Big Question… Does Orlov’s absence in the 2012
post-season portend a sophomore slump in 2012-2013?
Base on the company he keeps in terms of his first-year
production, the temptation is to say “no.”
But of course, this is really a question that has only a speculative
answer in advance. His being withheld
from the post-season did not appear to be a clear product of any late-season
slump. He was 1-8-9, plus-3 in his last
20 games while averaging almost 17 minutes a game. It is certainly harder to shelter a player
when the level of competition ramps up, as in the playoffs. It will be difficult to do so this season if
Orlov gets some of the minutes that Dennis Wideman took to Calgary. But that is going to be part of the pain to
be endured as Orlov develops the defensive side of his game. His offensive game is further developed at
this stage than his game in his own end, and one might expect in that regard
that he will not suffer such a sophomore slump.
In the end…
In the history of the Washington Capitals franchise, do you
know how many defensemen aged 20 or younger played 60 or more games in their
first season with the club?
Three.
Scott Stevens in 1982-1983, Robert Picard in 1977-1978, and
Dmitry Orlov last season. Both Stevens and Picard enjoyed long NHL careers,
Stevens playing for 22 seasons and Picard playing for 13 seasons. This is not to say that Orlov’s upside is the
Hall of Fame career assembled by Scott Stevens, but he has at least a toe-hold
on the ladder to a productive career in the NHL.
Given the state of the Capitals’ roster, Orlov probably gets
slotted as the fifth defenseman. He has
the offensive game to at least spell Mike Green or John Carlson on the power
play squad (he averaged 44 seconds of power play time per game last season). And while it is probably convenient to say he
has to work on his game in the defensive zone, he was on ice for only 36 goals
against in 60 games last season. His
goals against on-ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was second best on the club. That is a value that has to be taken in the
context of his advantageous minutes and situations (especially when you
consider that John Erskine had the best such mark), but he did not necessarily
fail to suggest there is something to work with there.
For Dmitry Orlov the trick is going to be playing this
season in a way in which he corrects the shortcomings of his first season. That is how he can quickly become a fixture
in the Capitals’ lineup for years to come.
Projection: 67 games, 5-17-22, plus-4
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