The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Well, guys. Here we are. Things are not looking too good for the Washington
Capitals these days. They can’t seem to
get on a good little run without stumbling right back to where they started,
5-5-0 over their last ten games.
“It is progress, cousin, considering their awful start. They are 9-7-0 over their last 16 games after
that 2-8-1 start.”
True, Fearless, but if they put up standings points at that rate, they
still do not get to 50 points.
“Cuz, it ain’t even that good. That
9-7-0 record? 7-1-0 against the
Southeast Division, 2-6-0 against everyone else.”
Yeah, it is a shame they don’t play all their games against the
Southeast, eh, Cheerless?
“Makes you wonder about that whole realignment thing next year, doesn’t
it?”
That it does, Fearless.
“I just got one question, cuz…”
What’s that, Cheerless?
“Who’s the top-rated draft pick in 2014?”
Well, we are getting waaaaay ahead of ourselves. There is a game to be played Sunday evening
as the Buffalo Sabres come to town. And
if there is a team as disappointing as the Capitals, it might be the Sabres.
Buffalo has not managed to string more than three wins together only
once this season, while they have three four-game losing streaks to their
credit (or discredit). Only Florida has
fewer wins in the league in regulation and overtime than do the Sabres. They have gone 13 straight games not having
scored more than three goals in a game.
The Sabres will come into this game losers of five of their last six
games. In putting up a 1-2-3 record over
those six games, the Sabres and their opponents have split 30 goals evenly, but
they have dropped a pair of games in the Gimmick, those game-losing goals not
showing up on their goals for and against ledger.
Special teams have truly been an adventure for Buffalo in their last
six games. Their power play is 2-for-22
(9.1 percent), while their penalty kill is 13-for-20 (65.0 percent) and has
allowed power play goals in each of their five losses in this block of games
(they were 1-for-1 in their 3-1 win over the New York Rangers).
Buffalo has spread their scoring around, despite the 1-2-3 record in
their last six games. Eighteen different
Sabres have points, nine different Sabres have goals. But when you score only
15 goals over six games with that kind of distribution, no one stands out. Drew Stafford does have three goals over
those six games, but he does not have an assist. Steve Ott and Andrej Sekera each have four
assists in the six games, but neither has a goal.
Here is how the teams match up in their overall numbers…
1. Ryan Miller has not won in
goal since stopping 28 of 31 shots in the hockey portion of the contest and
both shots he faced in the Gimmick in a 4-3 trick shot win over the New Jersey
Devils. Since then he is 0-2-3, 3.08,
.893.
2. No team in the league has
fewer power play goals than the 11 the Sabres have. Of that total, Thomas Vanek has six, good for
ninth in the league. But of those six
power play goals for Vanek, he had three of them in the Sabres’ first six
games, then three in his next 19 games.
3. Only three teams in the
league have faced more shorthanded situations than Buffalo (112 in 28 games),
which goes a long way toward explaining why no team has allowed more power play
goals than the 24 allowed by the Sabres.
4. From the “does not play well
with others” file, only Toronto (six) has more misconduct penalties than the
Sabres (five).
5. Only two teams (Ottawa and
Columbus) have played in more one-goal games to date than Buffalo. The Sabres are 6-7-4 in such games, the third
worst winning percentage, ahead of only Florida and Tampa Bay. One of those losses was a 3-2 defeat at the
hands of the Caps on January 27th.
1. The Caps are 7-1-1 in their
last nine games against Buffalo at home, outscoring the Sabres by a 30-23
margin.
2. The Caps allowed Boston only
one power play on Saturday and still managed to allow a power play goal. That makes the Caps 1-13-1 in games in which
they allowed at least one power play goal.
3. Caps games are either
nail-biters or blow-outs. Of the 27
games played by the Caps to date, 12 of them were decided by one-goal (a record
of 6-5-1), and 14 were decided by three or more goals (5-9).
4. Only three teams have more
power play goals at home than the Caps.
Overall, despite the fact that the Caps rank second in power play
efficiency (24.4 percent), they are a minus-5 on special teams (22 power play
plus a shorthanded goal versus 24 power play and four shorthanded goals
allowed).
5. No team has won fewer games
when leading at the first intermission than have the Caps this season. Only three times did they win after leading after
20 minutes.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Buffalo: Brian Flynn
Who? Brian Flynn has taken the
express elevator to the NHL for a player who went undrafted. In 2012 he completed his four-year
eligibility as a member of the University of Maine Black Bears hockey
team. He was signed by Buffalo in late
March, then played five games with the Rochester Americans in the AHL. This year he was 16-16-32 in 45 games at
Rochester, good for tenth among AHL rookies in both goals and points. Since his call-up to the Sabres on March 1st,
he is 2-1-3, plus-1, in seven games, both goals coming on the road.
Washington: Troy Brouwer
Troy Brouwer is in the midst of his longest goal-scoring drought of the
season – six games and counting. He does
not have a point in eight career games against Buffalo. He has only a lone assist in four Sunday
games so far this season. One would
think, “he’s due.” If Brouwer is to
reverse the curse here, it could come on the power play. He has four power play goals this season,
three in Washington wins. Ten of his 17
points this season have come with the man advantage.
Keys:
1. Rev up the power tools. The Caps have a 27.1 percent power play at
home. They need to unleash it,
especially since the Sabres are only 13-for-20 (65.0 percent) on the penalty
kill in their last five road games.
2. This game brought to you by
the letter “J.” Odd numbers… John
Carlson, no goals in his last five games.
Joel Ward, no goals in his last eight games. Jay Beagle, no goals in his last 13
games. Jason Chimera, Jeff Schultz, and
Jack Hillen – oh-for-the-season. Someone
whose first name that starts with the letter “J” needs to score. Joey Crabb can’t do this by himself (a goal
on Thursday).
3. Less tending makes for better
tending. The Caps have allowed 30 or
more shots in their last ten games (an average of 35.0 per game) and in 14 of
their last 15. Goaltenders are facing
too many shots.
In the end…
Here we have two teams that combined have the win total of the
Pittsburgh Penguins. Both are shells of
what they were not too long ago. Buffalo
was a 100-point team as recently as 2009-2010, and the Caps were a 100-point
team as recently as 2010-2011. It is not
likely that the two teams will combine for 100 points in this abbreviated
season. Neither gets timely scoring on a
consistent basis, neither can kill penalties with consistency, and both have
had goaltending issues from time to time.
Both have earned their diminished position in the standings. That in itself might make this game
entertaining, if not especially meaningful in the standings.
Capitals 5 – Sabres 4
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