The Stanley Cup Playoffs get underway tonight, and it is a
good time to do a little comparison between the NHL and NBA in terms of their
finals formats.
In 1985 the National Basketball Association changed its
finals format to a 2-3-2 arrangement of the seven games -- Games 1 and 2, and
Games 6 and 7 played on the higher-seeded team’s home court. The National Hockey League had a similar
format in 1985 but moved to a 2-2-1-1-1 format the following year and each year
thereafter.
In those 27 years since 1986 that the leagues have been
employing different formats in their respective finals (26 seasons in the case
of the NHL owing to The Great Lockout of 2004-2005), they have paved somewhat
different roads in crowning champions.
At first blush, there seems to be no difference between the
leagues in terms of the season’s ultimate game.
In the NBA the Larry O’Brien Trophy was awarded to the league champion
in the vanquished team’s arena 12 times in 27 seasons. In the NHL the Stanley Cup was presented to
the captain of the league champion 13 times in the opponent’s rink. Away teams have done quite well in clinching
titles.
Look deeper, though.
In the case of the NBA 11 series in 27 years went only four or five
games, those in which the higher-seeded team was the “away” team. In eight of those 11 instances the
higher-seeded team won. Meanwhile, in
the NHL there were also 11 series in 26 seasons that went four or five
games. But there is a difference
here. In the NHL, Game 4 is played on
the lower-seeded team’s ice, Game 5 on the higher-seeded team’s ice.
Did it make a difference?
In six four-game sweeps over the past 26 seasons – that fourth game
played on the lower-seeded team’s ice – the home teams and the away teams split
those six decisions, three apiece. In
five-game series – games played on the higher-seeded team’s ice – the home
teams won three times, the away teams twice.
In short series, at least in these 11 instances, it hardly seems to have
mattered much what seed or on whose ice the Cup-clinching games were played.
In long series seeding starts to matter more. Over
the last 27 seasons the NBA has played 16 series that have gone to at least a
Game 6, meaning that those series always end on the higher-seeded team’s
floor. In those 16 instances, 12 times
the higher-seeded team (the home team) won.
And here is where the format seems to come into play, if only a bit. The championship was won in the NBA finals 12
times in Game 6 – again, the home team’s floor – and in eight of those
instances it was won by the home team.
But then go to the Game 7 results. Only four times in 27 seasons has an NBA
final gone to seven games. In each of
those instances covering a span of 23 seasons (from 1988 to 2010) the home team
won Game 7. Finals series do not
generally reach a Game 7 because home teams clinch in Game 6.
On the other hand, the NHL has had 15 long series (lasting
six or seven games) over the past 26 seasons.
Seven of them were clinched in Game 6 – on the opponent’s ice. This is where seeding takes over. The higher-seeded team won six times in seven
on the opponent’s ice.
The difference carries over into Game 7 as well. Eight times in the last 26 seasons (six times in the last 11) the
Stanley Cup finals have gone to a Game 7.
Six times the home team – the higher seeded team – won the Cup, although
it is worth noting that the two instances in which the visiting lower-seeded
team won the Cup came in the last two Games 7, in 2009 (Pittsburgh, in Detroit)
and in 2011 (Boston, in Vancouver).
The differences between the NBA and NHL in format seem to be
that the 2-3-2 format that grants NBA teams the extra late home game in a long
series acts as an accelerant to the effects of being a higher (and presumably
better in most years) seed. Higher-seeded
teams are more likely to end their series in Game 6, if not sooner. In the NHL, seeding matters, but format seems
to serve to extend series in the form of more Games 7.
In historical context, here is what you might look for in
the Boston-Chicago series. First, no
team has been swept since Detroit swept Washington in four games in 1998. In the 13 Stanley Cup finals since, the Cup
has been won by the higher-seeded team ten times. And it did not matter where that Cup-clinching
game is played. Twice the higher-seeded
team clinched at home Game 5 (2002 by Detroit, 2007 by Anaheim), four times on
the road in Game 6, and four times on home ice in Game 7.
This trend is mitigated somewhat by the history since the
league’s lost 2005 playoffs. In seven
tournaments since then, the lower-seeded team has won the Cup three times, all
of them coming in the last four playoffs, twice in Game 7. But is that the start of a new trend, or an
anomaly? We just hope the NHL doesn’t
follow in the NBA’s footsteps with the 2-3-2 format.
We’ll take Chicago in six.
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