Theme: “There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have
clicked into place, and the universe opens itself for a few seconds, to show
you what is possible….”
-- Terence Mann (in “Field of Dreams”)
Going into the 2012-2013 season, Troy Brouwer was building a reputation for being a hard-nosed forward who could chip in the occasional or timely goal from the second or third line. It might have been the “hard-nosed” part that had particular appeal to the Caps when Washington traded the 26th overall pick in the 2011 entry draft for Brouwer in June 2011. In his first year with the Caps, Brouwer finished seventh in the league among forwards in hits. It was the third straight season in which he finished in the top 15 in that statistic, following a rookie season in which he finished fourth among rookies in hits.
Then came the 2012-2013 season. New season, new coach, new Brouwer. The Caps finished only 18th in the
league in hits (they finished 10th in 2011-2012). Part of the drop in the league rankings was
Brouwer’s drop from seventh in 2011-2012 to a tie for 29th in
2012-2013. On the other side – the
occasional and timely goal side – Brouwer had what amounted to a career year,
given the abbreviated nature of the schedule.
In 47 games played in the 48-game season, Brouwer finished with 19
goals, surpassed only by his 22 goals in 78 games in the 2009-2010 season. Of those 19 goals last season, seven came on
the power play, and five were game-winners (only one of the five game-winners
came on a power play).
His goal-scoring, coming as it did from the second line and
the first unit on the power play, provided some of the depth of scoring that
the Caps have lacked from time to time and took some of the man-advantage
scoring burden off of Alex Ovechkin.
Fearless’ Take…
I used that quote above in the 2012-2013 preview for
Brouwer. It was used in another context. This time around it fits for
those “few seconds.”
The “few seconds” in cosmological time might correspond to
an NHL season. An abbreviated one, mind
you, but one in which Troy Brouwer would score goals (33) at almost twice his
career per-82 game rate going into the season (17). And, although Brouwer was very efficient as a
shooter (17.1 percent shooting percentage), it was not a career year for him in
that regard. He shot to a 19.0 percent
rate in 2009-2010, when he had 22 goals in 78 games in the Chicago Blackhawks’
run to the Stanley Cup.
What contributed to Brouwer’s unexpectedly prolific year was
his performance on the power play. His
seven power play goals tied a career high, but it worked out to a per-82 game
rate of 12 power play goals. Not that
his even-strength production was weak.
His 12 even-strength goals was not a career high (he had 15 for the Caps
in 2011-2012), but with 11 in 47 games he was on a 19 goal pace per 82 games.
Cheerless’ Take…
Let’s go back to that power play performance. Brouwer was a whole lot more efficient in
2012-2013 than he was in 2011-2012. In
2011-2012 he had three goals on 25 5-on-4 power play shots (12.0 percent) in
170:37 of ice time. Last season he had
seven power play goals on 28 shots (25.0 percent) in 147:09 of ice time. Was this an “Adam Oates” effect by inserting
him in the middle of the Caps’ 1-3-1 power play structure, or merely a case of
“a few seconds” showing what was possible?
At even strength Brouwer is likely to have to suit up next
to yet another center. Think back to his
first shift with the Caps in 2011. Who
was his center? Mathieu Perreault. He’s been lined up alongside Marcus
Johansson, Matt Hendricks, and Brooks Laich.
He’s been lined up alongside Keith Aucoin. He’s been lined up alongside Mike Ribeiro. Now, it looks as if he will be lined up with
Mikhail Grabovski. Is this going to
work?
The Big Question… Was last season a sustainable new normal
or merely a blip in the career statistics for Troy Brouwer?
On the one hand, Caps fans might like to look at Troy
Brouwer and his 19 goals 47 games of the 2013 season (a 33-goal pace over 82
games) and see a “Mike Knuble,” who did not reach 20 goals for a full season
until he was 30 years old, then ran off eight straight 20-plus goal seasons
(averaging 27 a year). Brouwer just
turned 28 years old. In this scenario he
might be about to embark on the prime scoring years of his career, which would
be great news for Caps fans who would like to see a bigger threat coming out of
that second line.
On the other hand, if you head over to hockey-reference.com you will see that his primary comparables in production over the first seven
years of his career are Shawn Burr and Paul Ranheim. If they really are comparables, Caps fans
might not be as happy. Burr had his
career season (24-32-56) at age 23 with the Detroit Red Wings (that was in
1989-1990, before the Red Wings got good).
Ranheim had his best years, goal-scoring wise, at 26 and 27 years old
when he recorded a total of 44 goals over the 1991-1992 and 1992-1993 seasons
with the Calgary Flames. He never had
more than ten goals in any season after that.
In the end…
Troy Brouwer’s effectiveness as a power play scorer had
consequences last season. The Caps were
6-1-0 in games in which Brouwer scored a power play goal, but only 14-8-2 in
games in which the Caps scored a power play goal without Brouwer getting one. And, when you consider that the Caps were
7-9-1 in games in which they failed to score a power play goal, the matter of
Brouwer’s ability to produce on the power play takes on importance for the
2013-2014 season.
Of greater import, though, is how he will mesh with another
new center. Mikhail Grabovski is not the
playmaker Mike Ribeiro was, and this could have consequences for Brouwer’s even
strength production. If Grabovski scores
more on his own than Ribeiro, this is not likely to be a problem. Still, the nature of Brouwer’s production in
the 2013 season makes him one of the bigger question marks of the coming
season, leaving Caps fans to ponder if it was his career year or the harbinger
of a step up on his career path.
Projection: 80 games, 22-19-41, plus-3
Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America
1 comment:
I must say, if Grabovsky is indeed a much better puck possession player than Ribiero was, it's possible Brouwer may have even more quality 5v5 chances with Grabs centering him than with Ribs. Brouwer had the season he had despite being centered by a puck possession black hole last year.
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