The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Capitals at Stars, October 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“The Stars on ice – will play like mice

Deep in the heart of Texas.

The neutral zone – won’t be their own

Deep in the heart of Texas.

“The Caps shoot pucks – ‘cuz Kari sucks

Deep in the heart of Texas.

The light will shine – from goals divine

Deep in the heart of Texas.”

Hey, Cheerless…you write that one yourself?

“You bet I did…been workin’ on it ever since Jagr signed with them.”

Uh, Cheerless, Jagr is in New Jersey.

“Huh?”

Yeah…you must have missed those few games in Boston, too.

“OK, well, what about Loui Eriksson?”

He’s in Boston.

“Michael Ryder?”

New Jersey, with Jagr.

“Brenden Morrow?...surely he’s still there.”

Nope…they sent him to Pittsburgh, and now he’s in St. Louis.

“Well, then… who ARE these guys?”

Good question. 

The Dallas Stars are a different group than the one that skated for Big D last season and a lot different than the team the Caps last faced.  Only six Stars from the team that gave the Caps their first home loss of the 2011-2012 season (a 5-2 decision) are still with the Stars:  Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski, Vernon Fiddler, and Kari Lehtonen.

This is a club that has remade itself in the last seven months since the 2013 trading deadline.  Gone are a lot of old guys.  Jagr (41), Eriksson, Ryder (33), and Morrow (34) have found new teams. What they have in place are the young (23 year old Alex Chiasson), the younger (21 year old Tyler Seguin), and the younger still (18 year old Valeri Nichushkin, picked 10^th overall in last summer’s draft).

One place where the Stars are both new and old is behind the bench.  Lindy Ruff takes over for Glen Gulutzan, who went 64-57-9 in two seasons with the Stars.  Ruff, who spent 25 years in the Buffalo Sabres organization as a player and coach, is currently third in career coaching wins (571) among active coaches, behind only Ken Hitchcock (606) and Joel Quenneville (661).  If the Stars were to have a big season – 47 wins – Ruff would jump into the top ten in career NHL coaching victories.

A 47-win season would be a tall order for this team.  It is a young group, at least among the forwards.  Three of their nominal centers – Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Cody Eakin – are all younger than 25.  But where the Stars are older, they might be getting to the point where they are simply “old.” Stephane Robidas and Sergei Gonchar are on the far side of 35.  Ditto for forwards Shawn Horcoff, Erik Cole, and the timeless Ray Whitney, who will turn 42 in May.  Even Kari Lehtonen, who Caps fans will remember as a rosy-cheeked prospect goalie with the Atlanta Thrashers from years gone by has reached 30 years of age.  This is a team with a lot of new moving parts, and even a coach with the long resume of Lindy Ruff is going to have some sorting out to do to figure out just what he’s got. 

Here is how the teams compared last season in the tale o’ the tape…

1.  Five of the 18 skaters getting ice time in the Stars’ opener against Florida on Thursday are new to the club: Gonchar, Seguin, Horcoff, Nichushkin, and Chris Mueller.  All except Mueller skated at least 18 minutes.  The new pieces are not just fill-in role players.  At the other end, the defense has an experience issue – not enough of it.  Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn have a combined 80 games of NHL experience going into Saturday’s game.

2.  Every year is a new year, but last year home ice meant nothing to the Stars, good or bad.  They were 11-11-2 at home, 11-11-2 on the road.

3.  Last season the Stars had four players with ten or more goals.  Only two remain (Jamie Benn, Ray Whitney).  Seven had 20 or more points.  Four are still with the team (Benn, Whitney, Cody Eakin, and Alex Goligoski). 

4.  Think that doesn’t put some pressure on Tyler Seguin?  After spending three seasons, 200-plus games, and a Stanley Cup season in Boston, Sequin is now, if not “the man” (that might be Jamie Benn on this team), then certainly a guy who is expected to produce.  He certainly did that in the preseason, going 1-6-7, plus 2 in five games.  He was especially effective on the power play, going 1-4-5.  Dallas need that kind of production if they are to improve on their 18^th-place finish on the power play last season (17.0 percent).

5.  Valeri Nichushkin is going to be a fine player in time.  Drafted 10^th overall in the 2013 entry draft.  He had a respectable three goals in six preseason games in just over 11 minutes of ice time per game.  His ice time was ramped up considerably in Dallas’ opener – 19:50.  He managed only one shot on goal, however, against a weak Florida team.  Like we said… in time.

1.  It’s early.  Keep saying that.  It makes the fact that the Caps have been outscored 6-3 at 5-on-5 and 7-3 overall at even strength a little more palatable. Oh yeah, and they have more power play goals (five) than even strength goals (three).

2.  Alex Ovechkin has two goals, Mikhail Grabovski has two goals.  Ovechkin has three assists, Grabovski has three assists.  (a-HEM!... that should read three goals and two assists for each...thanks, crowesnest)  Ovechkin…two power play goals, Grabovski…yup, two power play goals.  Ovechkin is minus-1, Grabovski is minus-1.  Where they have differed is in how they did it.  Ovechkin has 20 shots on goals, Grabovski has four.  Ovechkin is on a pace for 820 shots on goal.  That would be a record.

3.  If someone told you that even just two games into the season only 28 of 313 forwards averaged less ice time per game than Martin Erat, would you believe it?  Well, you would be wrong…it’s only 27 of 313 forwards who have less ice time per game.  And, it’s less ice time than Patrick Kaleta, Shawn Thornton, and someone named Lucas Lessio.

4.  From the “Let’s Start a Goalie Controversy” file…in his last four appearances dating back to last season, Michal Neuvirth is 3-0-1, 1.83, .945.

5.  John Carlson has skated 40:07 at even strength and has not yet been on ice for an even strength goal scored against. No NHL defenseman thus far has skated more even strength time and has no even strength goals scored against while on ice.  That might be because the two defensemen who have skated more even strength ice time are teammates – Mike Green (five ES goals against) and Karl Alzner (3).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Kari Lehtonen

When Kari Lehtonen was drafted by the Atlanta Thrashers second overall in the 2002 NHL entry draft, he was the top-ranked European goaltender in the Central Scouting rankings.  Turns out it was not a big class for goalies, at least highly ranked ones.  The top three European goalies going into that draft  (according to those Central Scouting rankings) were: Lehtonen, Tobias Stephan, and Hannu Toivonen.  The top three North American goalies were: Jeff Deslauriers, Todd Ford, and Maxime Daigneault.  Any of that group ring a bell?  In fact, only Lehtonen, Cam Ward, and Josh Harding of the 33 goalies taken in that draft have played in more than 100 games.  Of the top three North American goalies, Ford and Daigneault never appeared in an NHL game.

Lehtonen has settled into being a good, if not great goalie.  Since being traded to Dallas in February 2009, he is 87-65-18, 2.52, .917, with eight shutouts in 177 appearances.  He was in that ball park of goals against (2.66) and save percentage last season (.916), but after a good start in which he went 9-3-1, 2.25, .930 in his first 15 games; he finished 6-11-2, 3.09, .906 in his last 21 appearances.  In 19 career appearances against the Caps he is 11-6-2, 2.76, .920. 

Washington: Karl Alzner

It is a bit odd that after two games we should be talking about a slump, especially when talking about a defensive defenseman.  However, Karl Alzner has been on ice for three of the seven even-strength goals scored against the Caps thus far.  Add to that the fact that the Calgary Flames scored on a power play goal stemming from a penalty taken by Alzner, and he had a hand (skate, stick, whatever) in four of the ten goals scored against the Caps so far this season.  We have every confidence that this trend will be corrected, but it would help if the corrections came sooner than later.

Keys:

1.  Take Advantage of Evens.  Kari Lehtonen was 16^th in even strength save percentage among goalies playing in at least half their team’s games last season.  Decent, not noteworthy.  The Caps have to start making a dent at 5-on-5.  Doing so means that the Caps might…

2.  Serve Youth…On a Platter.  There is the matter that Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn have only those 80 combined games of NHL experience on the blueline for Dallas.  If they get the start, coach Lindy Ruff can protect them with the home-ice last change, even if he really didn’t in the Stars game against Florida (Dillon had more than 20 minutes of ice time, Benn almost 17 minutes).  Against the Caps, who have a deeper offense than the Panthers, this is a weak spot that might be exploited.

3.  Settle Down.  Braden Holtby has looked jittery in his first two appearances.  We do not think this is nerves, but rather the goalie equivalent of a power pitcher in baseball who is “too strong” in the early innings of a game and falls into the trap of overthrowing his fast ball.  In Holtby’s case, he has not settled into a game-to-game rhythm in the early going yet, and he is perhaps “too fresh,” causing him to overplay his position and take himself off his angles and out of position.  He was similarly poor in his first two games last season and worked himself out of it.  But he should be getting to the point, experience-wise, where he should not have to play himself out of that problem, if it in fact exists.  If he settles down, he is the better goaltender in this game.  If he doesn’t, he’s not.

In the end…

“The fans will cry - ki-yip-pie-yi

Deep in the heart of Texas.

Ki-yip-pie-yi, means “I’d like to die”

Deep in the heart of Texas.

"The Caps will score – four goals or more

Deep in the heart of Texas.

To leave the Stars – in search of bars

Deep in the heart of Texas."

Thanks, Cheerless…

Capitals 4 – Stars 2