Friday, October 17, 2014

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 5: Panthers at Capitals, October 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game home stand on Saturday night when the face the Florida Panthers at Verizon Center. The Caps go into the contest as one of only two teams in the Eastern Conference – the New York Islanders being the other one – without having yet endured a loss in regulation time (2-0-2).

Both the Capitals and the Panthers finished the 2013-2014 regular season on the outside looking in at the playoffs. For the Capitals it was their first time missing the post-season since 2006-2007, ending a string of six straight appearances. For the Panthers, missing the playoffs is a state of being.  Only once over the past 13 seasons have they reached the post-season, only four times in the 20 year history of the franchise.  Florida has not won a playoff series since they won the Eastern Conference final on their way to their only Stanley Cup final appearance, in 1996.

This year’s edition of the Panthers will likely have to deal with another round of meager expectations.  Last season’s squad ranked in the bottom three of almost every meaningful team statistic. That is a team with entirely too many holes to fill in one off season to manage a significant climb up the standings.  And it is not even a case of the Panthers icing a team with a lot of young prospects.  They are the eighth oldest team in the league, and ten of the 19 skaters they have dressed have passed the age of 30.

As one might expect, the Panthers have stumbled out of the gate.  They played the Tampa Bay Lightning close in the season opener, losing a 3-2 overtime decision.  However, they have only one goal scored in their last two games, a 5-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils and a 1-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators.  They have only two goals from forwards (Derek MacKenzie and Jonathan Huberdeau), and only three forwards with points (Scottie Upshall being the third).  As a team they are shooting 3.8 percent on 3-for-80 shooting.  This is a team that appears to have a bleak future in the short term at the very least.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers from last season.

1.  No team in the NHL last season had a leading goal scorer with fewer goals than Brad Boyes had for the Panthers (21).  No team had a leading point scorer with fewer points than the 38 Nick Bjugstad had for the Panthers last season.  How bad was it?  There were 26 defensemen with more points than the Panthers’ leading scorer.

2.  The Panthers were 29th in goal differential in the first period of games last season (minus-39), 30th in goal differential in the second period of games (minus-34).  They won the third period (plus-1). Small victories.

3.  In an 82-game season, the Panthers played in 25 games in which they lost by three or more goals.  See a pattern here?

4.  The Panthers’ road power play was past anemic, it was exsanguinated.  Their 7.0 percent on the power play was the lowest dating back more than 15 years.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout only one other team finished below 10.0 percent (St. Louis – 9.2 percent in 2006-2007).

5.  The strange part of the Panthers’ 2013-2014 season is that they were not irreparably inept in terms of possession.  Their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (50.36) ranked 15th; their Fenwick-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.88) ranked 18th (

1.  Going into Friday’s games the Capitals had the second best overall goal differential per game (+2.00); Minnesota was the only team with a better one (+4.00).

2.  The Caps’ special teams index (121.1; power play plus penalty killing percentage) ranks third, behind  Tampa Bay (123.9) and Arizona (127.3).

3.  The Caps have scored 16 goals through four games.  Last season they did not score their 16th goal of the season until Game 6, the last goal in a 4-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers. 

4.  The Caps lead the league in blocked shots going into Friday’s games (58).   It wouldn’t be possible without the four blocked shots by Alex Ovechkin.  We kid, but last year he had 22 total in 78 games.

5.  Four teams have two wins of three of more goals.  The Caps are one of them along with Minnesota, San Jose, and Los Angeles.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Aaron Ekblad

Aaron Ekblad was taken first overall in the entry draft held last June.  He is not being eased into a role with the Panthers.  The defenseman out of Windsor, Ontario, is averaging almost 22 minutes a game over his first three NHL contests and got almost 24 minutes of ice time in his last outing against Ottawa.  He has been on ice for only two of the nine goals allowed by the Panthers thus far.  He leads all rookie defensemen in average ice time (it’s early; there are only ten rookie defensemen who have dressed so far this season).  There is a bright future there, but even a bright star on a dark night can shine just so much light.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

By now all Caps fans know that Nicklas Backstrom goes into this game with 499 points scored in 499 career regular season games.  Only three other natives of Sweden had careers of playing in 500 or more games, recording 500 or more points, and averaging at least 1.00 points per game: Mats Sundin (1,349 points in 1,346 games), Peter Forsberg (885 points in 708 games), and Kent Nilsson (686 points in 553 games).  In 36 career games against Florida he is 9-32-41, including three goals and three assists last season in three games against the Panthers.

In the end…

Let’s face it, on paper this game isn’t close.  A three-goal win would seem like a nail-biter.  On paper.  As Caps fans know, depressingly so, games are not played on paper, and this team can play down to an opponent’s level with the best of them.  That said, the Caps got through their four-game opening stretch as good or better than one might have expected under a new coaching regime.  And, they look like a team that has done it the right way, improving on their possession numbers, holding shots down, getting balanced scoring while the stars shine.  Florida's situation is complicated by their having to play in Buffalo on Friday night, meaning a late arrival in Washington for the Saturday night game.  What you see on paper you will see on the ice.

Capitals 6 – Panthers 2

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