The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return to Verizon Center on
Wednesday night to host the Detroit Red Wings in a matchup of a pair of 4-2-2
teams. Both teams have lost two of their past three games. Both teams have
beaten the Boston Bruins. Both teams have lost to the Montreal Canadiens in
extra time. They’re pretty much the same team.
OK, except for the 11 Stanley Cups.
This edition of the Detroit Red Wings is a team in
transition. Oh, sure, they are still Wayne County’s Geriatric Athletic Club,
the fifth-oldest team in the league, and only one rookie has dressed for the team so far this season (center Andrej
Nestrasil, for the record). However, it is a team that has iced nine skaters age
25 or younger, right wing Gustav Nyquist (28 goals last season), defenseman
Danny DeKeyser (eighth in scoring among rookie defensemen last season), and
Tomas Tatar (second to Nyquist in goals for the club last season with 19). That
is where the future lies for the Red Wings.
For now, though, Detroit’s personality remains embodied in
their “Old Guns:” Pavel Datsyuk (36 years old), Johan Franzen (34), Henrik
Zetterberg (34), and Niklas Kronwall (33). All but Datsyuk (signed as a free
agent out of Russia) were drafted by the club. All of them have their names on
the Stanley Cup.
However, they are “old” guns, and with it bring the
occasional physical issues. Franzen is on injured reserve with a lower body
injury. Datsyuk missed the first five games of the season with a separated
shoulder. Zetterberg has been healthy so far, appearing in all eight games for
the Red Wings, but last year he missed 37 games to a herniated disc that
required surgery.
Kronwall is the only one of the four who has not had some
recent issue with injuries. In fact, he has missed only five games over the
past four-plus seasons and is coming off a near career year in points (49,
surpassed only by the 51-point season he had in 2008-2009). So far this season
Kronwall has a respectable six points in eight games, good enough to be among
the top dozen point-getters among defensemen (going into Tuesday night’s
games). He had three of those points (two goals, assist), including the
game-tying goal with nine seconds left in regulation, in a 4-3 win over the
Pittsburgh Penguins last Thursday. He also leads the Red Wings in average ice
time (23:55), almost three full minutes per game more than DeKeyser (21:02). In
ten career games against the Caps, Kronwall is 1-4-5, minus-5.
If there is a surprise for the Red Wings so far, it might be
Justin Abdelkader, who is tied for third in overall scoring for the club in
eight games. Abdelkader, who has never recorded more than 28 points in a
season, is already in his eighth season with Detroit, despite being only 27
years old. After recording points in three of his first four games of the
season, he cooled off a bit, but he did have the game-winning overtime goal in
the win over the Penguins. Six of his 41 career goals are game-winners
(including four of his last 12 goals dating back to last season), which might
not be especially impressive except he is used primarily as a checking forward.
Here is how the teams compare, numbers-wise:
1. Before there were “fancystats,” Detroit was regarded by
many as the premier possession team in the league. While they might not be what
they once were in that regard, they still are allowing the sixth fewest shots
on goal in the league (26.9). They are also fifth in Corsi-for percentage at
5-on-5 (53.9) and tenth in Fenwick-for percentage (52.4).
2. Detroit has played games close. No team has more one-goal
decisions than the six put together by the Red Wings (Chicago, Ottawa, and
Florida also have six). The Red Wings are 3-1-2 in those games.
3. Scoring first or trailing first, it does not seem to
matter to Detroit. They are 2-1-1 in each situation.
4. If there was a Lady Byng Trophy, team edition, the Red
Wings might be a finalist. Only Chicago (7.2), Philadelphia (7.8…say WHAT?),
and Nashville (8.1) have fewer penalty minutes per game than Detroit (8.5). A
lot of that is attributable to the fact that only the Blackhawks and Red Wings
are without a major penalty charged to them so far this season.
5. The Red Wings have allowed one power play goal in eight
games so far this season. Not one per game…one. They are 25-for-26 when
shorthanded. If there is consolation to be had in this, the Flyers broke a
25-for-25 streak to open the season when they scored a power play goal in the
third period of a 4-2 win over the Red Wings last Saturday in Detroit’s most
recent contest. On the flip side, the Red Wing power play stinks on toast. The are 0-for-19 over their last five games and are 2-for-30 for the season. Detroit has yet to score a power play goal on the road.
1. Even having had their fewer-than-30-shots-allowed streak
ended at seven games in the loss to Vancouver on Sunday, the Caps still rank
third in the league in shots allowed per game (25.0). That is 8.5 shots per
game fewer than what they allowed last season (33.5). It is by far the fewest
they have allowed, on average, since the 2004-2005 lockout (2007-2008: 27.5).
2. From the odd-stat department… Nate Schmidt is plus-6 on
the season. He is the highest ranked defenseman in that statistic who has yet
to record a point this season (Jay Bouwmeester is plus-5 with St. Louis).
3. Troy Brouwer is 1-3-4, plus-2 in four games at Verizon
Center; he is without a point on the road and is a minus-2 in four games.
4. This game will be Matt Niskanen’s 500th game in the NHL.
With the Caps he is averaging 23:14 a game, almost two full minutes more than
his career season in average ice time (21:18 with Pittsburgh last season).
5. Niskanen’s even strength ice time per game (19:35) leads
the team by almost two minutes. However, the next four defensemen are tightly
bunched in even strength ice time per game, ranging from 16:48 (John Carlson)
to 17:55 (Mike Green), the difference being a little more than one shift per
game.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder:
Detroit: Jimmy Howard
Consider three goaltenders and their records since
2009-2010:
- Goaltender A: 269 games, 138-83-34, 2.38, .919
- Goaltender B: 265 games, 145-82-31, 2.39, .919
- Goaltender C: 282 games, 154-82-39, 2.40, .917
Not much difference there. Goaltender A is Nashville’s Pekka
Rinne, and Goaltender B is Florida’s Roberto Luongo, two goalies generally
thought of as being among the best in the NHL. Goaltender C is Detroit’s Jimmy
Howard, who does not get much thought at all, at least as it pertains to the
best goalies in the league. Part of the problem is Howard’s own consistency, or lack of it on a year to year basis.
Since that 2009-2010 season his save percentage has yo-yo’ed: .924, .908, .920,
.923, .910, and .929 in six appearances so far this season. In those six
appearances he has yet to allow more than three goals in any of them, and he
has yet to allow a power play goal this season (28-for-28 in saves). In five
career appearances against the Caps, Howard is 2-1-2, 3.47, .871.
Washington: Brooks Orpik
Through eight games with the Capitals, Brook Orpik has been
pretty much as advertised. He has been a punishing hitter, credited with the
second highest number of hits among NHL defensemen (31; Toronto’s Roman Polak
has 37). He logs significant minutes – 20:52 per game – and much of that on the
penalty kill (2:57, second to John Carlson on the club). The flip side of that
is that he can be solved; the nine goals against while on ice is the highest on
the team, although that number does not rank among the top-30 in the league.
Here is your odd Brooks Orpik number for this game: “0.” In 711 regular season
NHL games, Brooks Orpik has never scored a game-winning goal. Maybe this game
is the one. In ten career regular season games against the Red Wings, Orpik is
0-2-2, minus-1.
In the end…
Here are two teams with very similar profiles at this young
stage of the 2014-2015 season. Caps fans will look at the 4-2-2 record and
think, “hey, an improvement.” Red Wing fans might look at their club’s 4-2-2
record and think, “meh.” Even with the comparative lack of success in recent
years (the Red Wings have not advanced to a conference final since losing the
Stanley Cup final in 2009), expectations are high in the Motor City.
In Washington, the pedigree is not as renowned; they haven’t
reached a conference final since former Caps coach Dale Hunter was still
playing for the club (1998, in case you forgot). In that sense, the teams are
alike only in their numbers. For despite having gone 4-0-1 in their last five
meetings against Detroit and 6-2-1 in their last nine meetings (all three
losses by one goal), there is probably the lingering feeling in these parts
that the Wings are – and should be – the favorite. Yeah, well, we aren’t buying
it.
Capitals 3 – Red Wings 2
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