The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return home from their brief, if
fruitless road spin up to Toronto on Saturday to host the Vancouver Canucks on
Tuesday night at Verizon Center. The
Caps start December trying to get out of the rut in which they spun their
wheels in November. Looking at the
schedule gone by, it was three losses followed by three wins. Then it was two losses followed by two
wins. A couple of one-goal losses
followed, then the month wrapped up with a couple of blowouts, one win and one
loss. It made for a 6-6-2 month of
November. The Caps were 4-4-2 in
one-goal games overall, 2-2 in extra time games (all settled in overtime). They were outscored 42-38. On special teams they had a 33.3 percent
conversion rate on power plays (11-33) and a 75.7 percent kill rate when
shorthanded (28-37). It was pretty much
a "meh" month for the Capitals.
On the other hand, Vancouver seems to have awakened from an
early-season slumber. The Canucks were
4-3-0 when they hosted Washington on October 26th. Starting with their 4-2 win over the Caps,
Vancouver is 12-4-1 since that start.
Over those 17 games they have outscored opponents by a 51-39
margin. Their special teams are not
particularly special – an 18.8 percent power play (9-for-48) and an 84.3
percent penalty kill (43-for-51). What
they have done very well is win the close ones.
In their last 17 games, Vancouver has been involved in seven one-goal
decisions. They are 6-0-1 in those
games.
Another thing they have done, which you might have figured out,
is avoid lengthy stumbles. The Canucks
have not lost consecutive games in this 17-game stretch, a fact worth pointing
out because they did lose to the Red Wings in Detroit, 5-3, in their last
contest this past Sunday.
At an individual level, fans would certainly know the
Brothers Sedin, Daniel and Henrik. Nick
Bonino is another matter. A former
sixth-round draft pick of the San Jose Sharks, Bonino is on what for him is a
tear. He is third on the team in points
(19), behind the Sedins, and is tied for the team lead with a plus-10. Bonino gave some hints at such production
capability when he finished last season in Anaheim with 22 goals and 49 points
in 77 games with the Ducks. While he has
maintained a decent points pace lately, Bonino has slipped in the goal-scoring
category. He comes into this game with a
ten-game streak without a goal. In five
career games against the Caps he is 1-1-2, minus-1.
As for the Sedin brothers, there they sit, one-two in the
Canucks’ scoring rankings (22 for Henrik, 21 for Daniel). Each has a power play
goal this season, each has eight power play points. Daniel averages 19:14 in ice time per night,
while Henrik averages 19:13. Thirteen
times in 24 games, both recorded points.
Only six times this season (all in November) has the pair been held off
the score sheet entirely. Vancouver is 4-2-0 in those games.
Here is how the teams compare, numbers-wise:
1. Vancouver will
test the Caps' attention to possession.
The Canucks rank fifth in shots on goal per game (31.3), and they have
been at 30 or more in eight of their last nine contests, going 6-2-1. They are 13-4-0 overall when hitting or
surpassing the 30 shot mark, including their 4-2 win over Washington in October
when they outshot the Caps, 34-22.
2. Vancouver is one
of only two teams remaining not to have lost a one-goal decision in regulation
time (Anaheim is the other). Their .875
winning percentage in one-goal games is second best in the league (New York
Islanders: .909).
3. Vancouver will
test the Capitals’ defense at full strength.
Only Dallas (53) and Tampa Bay (57) have scored more goals at 5-on-5
than the Canucks (50). On the other
hand, their defense can be tested as well.
Their 50 goals allowed are surpassed by only four other teams (Colorado,
Dallas, Columbus, and Edmonton).
4. Falling behind the
Canucks makes for a difficult night.
Vancouver has the third best winning percentage (.833) when scoring
first, a 10-2-0 record. They are hardly
slouches when allowing the first goal.
The Canucks are one of seven teams with a .500 or better winning percentage
when allowing the first goal (6-5-1).
5. Since the Sedins
broke into the league in 2000-2001, 20 players have appeared in 800 or more
games and averaged 0.80 points per game or more. The Sedins rank 13th and 16th on that list,
Henrik with 0.84 points per game, Daniel with 0.82 points per game. You’d think they were twins or something.
1. Now 23 games in to
the 2014-2015 season, Washington is still without a winning streak of longer
than three games. It is the deepest they
have gone into an 82-game season without a longer winning streak since
2007-2008, when they posted their first four-game streak in Games 45-48.
2. Alex Ovechkin has
recorded 13 hat tricks since he came into the league in 2005-2006. Only three
players currently with the club have as many as one with the team: Brooks Laich
(February 10, 2010, against Montreal), Troy Brouwer (January 13, 2012, against
Tampa Bay), and Joel Ward (November 1, 2013, against Philadelphia). In all, Capitals not named “Ovechkin” have 14
hat tricks with the club since 2005-2006.
3. For what it’s worth, only five clubs have more blocked
shots at home than the Caps (205): Buffalo (208), Philadelphia (213), Dallas
(238), Toronto (238), and Montreal (249).
4. Denying opponents
shot opportunities is not a rock-solid indicator of success. The Caps have limited opponents to 27.1 shots
per game, fourth fewest in the league.
And, they have outshot opponents 15 times in 23 games, yet they have
just a 5-7-3 record in those games to show for it. When holding opponents to 25 or fewer shots
and outshooting them, the Caps are just 2-2-3 with one win coming in regulation
(3-1 at Calgary on October 25th when they outshot the Flames, 30-21).
5. The Caps have
parceled out ice time rather evenly among defensemen. Of the top five defensemen in even strength
time on ice per game, the range is from a low of 16:43 (Karl Alzner) to a high
of 18:57 (Brooks Orpik). Only Nate
Schmidt among defensemen playing in at least five games is under 16 minutes
(14:38).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Vancouver: Alexander Edler
No Vancouver defenseman has as many as ten points yet this
season. Alexander Edler leads the club with eight points (3-5-8). It is part of a five-year slide in points per
game for Edler, who finished the 2010-2011 season with 33 points in 51 games
(0.65 points per game), only to see it slide to 0.33 points per game so far
this season. He has just one point (an
assist) in his last ten games and is without a goal since potting one in a 3-2
win over San Jose on November 6th. He
does seem to have reversed one poor number, though. After finishing minus-39 last season, dead
last among 303 defensemen (by ten points behind Buffalo’s Mike Weber at minus-29),
he is plus-5 so far this season. He has
not finished a season in plus territory since a plus-13 in 2010-2011. In seven career games against the Caps he is
4-1-5, plus-2.
Washington: Nicklas Backstrom/Alex Ovechkin
The pair of Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin is relied
upon for a lot in the offensive end.
Yet, Backstrom is tied for 37th in even-strength scoring (13 points),
while Ovechkin is tied for 53rd (12 points).
The Caps are tied for 18th in 5-on-5 goals scored; they are
tied for 20th with a ratio of goals scored to goals allowed at
5-on-5 of 0.89. These are not
coincidences. These are things that have
to change, or the Caps are going to find themselves slushing around in 10th
place or so in the East all season, on the outside looking in at the playoffs. The Backstrom/Ovechkin pair has to be more
productive at even strength. Period and
point blank.
In the end…
Vancouver is hot, the Caps are not. Add in the fact that the Caps are not an
especially successful team against Western Conference opponents (4-4-2 against
the Western Conference, 2-3-2 against the Pacific Division, including a 4-2
loss at Vancouver on October 26th), the fact that old nemesis Ryan
Miller is likely to be in goal (career vs. Caps: 16-12-3, 2.49, .917, 3
shutouts), and this looks like a grim task for the Caps. The Caps have won two of their last three
meetings against the Canucks at Verizon Center, though. The fact that the Caps, entering Tuesday
night’s games, are “only” two points behind the New York Rangers for the last
playoff spot in the East is something of a mirage. They have yet to find any traction, any truly
sustained stretch of good play that translates in to a winning streak or
consistently winning play. It can get
late right quick unless the Caps find a way to start stringing wins
together. Starting to do so against a
hot opponent is as good a place as any to start.
Capitals 3 – Canucks 2
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