The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take to the ice on Thursday night
to face the Columbus Blue Jackets in the middle game of their three-game road
trip. The teams played just a week ago, but the intervening seven days
have been, shall we say, eventful for both teams.
The Caps played two game since losing to the Blue Jackets
in overtime last Thursday, taking three of four points from Florida teams – a
4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning (completing the sweep of a two-game set
played over a four day period) and a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Florida Panthers
that featured a record-setting 20-round trick shot competition.
Over on the other side, the Blue Jackets have played twice
since facing the Caps, and both of their games went to extra time, both to the
freestyle competition, beating Pittsburgh (4-3) and Detroit (1-0). The
two Gimmick wins extended to four the number of consecutive games played by
Columbus that went to extra time, and five of their last six games. One
odd part about the run is that the Blue Jackets won all five games settled in
extra time, three of them in the Gimmick. Another is that the five games
in six settled in extra time follow 24 games to start the season in which
Columbus was involved in only two extra time games.
It would appear likely that Sergei Bobrovsky will get the
call in goal for Columbus in what would be his eighth straight
appearance. Why not? He’s on quite a roll. In seven
appearances since the start of December, Bobrovsky is 7-0-0, 1.63, .950.
That 7-0-0 run coincides with a month of December in which Columbus has risen
from dead last in the Eastern Conference when the month began to fifth place in
the Metropolitan Division, six point behind the fourth-place Capitals, and 12th
of 16 teams in the conference.
Not that the Columbus record in December is pure, unalloyed
gold. Consider their opponents. In addition to playing games on the
margin (six one-goal wins in seven victories), their colectio of opponents has
ranged from “meh” to depleted. Columbus has beaten Florida twice (ok, the
Panthers beat the Caps), a team that, it should be remember, has lost 16 of 29
games. They have beaten Philadelphia, a team that has lost 19 of 30
games. They beat Pittsburgh when the Penguins had seven players out of
the lineup, including Sidney Crosby.
What the Blue Jackets have done in the seven-game streak is
display a certain consistency on offense. Embedded in the streak is
another one in which they scored three goals in regulation or overtime in five
straight games. Drilling down, though, the offense is anything but
balanced. Boone Jenner (5) and Nick Foligno (4) have combined for nine of
the 17 goals scored in the seven-game winning streak.
Here is how the number compare overall between the teams…
1. Columbus is 5-for-22 on the power play (22.7
percent) on their seven-game winning streak, and they have a 21-for-25 penalty
kill (84.0 percent). Bobrovsky has been good, but the team has enjoyed a
rather favorable special teams effort as well (106.7 on the special teams index).
2. That PDO number has been pretty good, too.
At 105.2 overall in the seven-game winning streak (10.2 shooting percentage,
95.0 save percentage), the question becomes one of whether the Blue Jackets are
in for a correction.
3. Jack Johnson had a four-game points streak stopped
in Columbus’ 1-0 Gimmick win over Detroit on Tuesday. It was his longest
points streak since he put together a six-game streak, December 21-30, 2010
(2-5-7).
4. Only Arizona has scored fewer third period goals
(18) than the Blue Jackets (19). Of course, it was a third period goal
against the Caps that forced overtime in which Columbus won.
5. In the seven-game winning streak, Columbus has
been outshot by a whopping 242-166 (34.6-23.7 per game). Almost half of
that 76 shot deficit came in a 4-3 Gimmick win over Florida in which Columbus
was outshot, 55-20.
1. Once upon a time, the Caps were denying teams
shots. December did not start that way, the Caps allowing 30 or more
shots on goal in three straight games, the first time this season they allowed
30 or more in three straight contests. In their last three games,
however, they are back to allowing less than 30. Unfortunately, the Caps
lost two of those games, both in extra time.
2. When the Caps lost to the Blue Jackets in overtime
last Thursday, it was the first Washington loss to Columbus on home ice since
they dropped a 5-4 decision in overtime on November 1, 2009. When
visiting Columbus, the Caps have not fared as well. They lost their two
most recently played games in Columbus by a combined score of 10-3.
3. Yup, the Caps are still last in the league in road
power play opportunities. Washington has had only 31 power play opportunities
in 15 road games, but they are tied for 16th in road power play goals scored,
courtesy of a league-leading 35.5 percent road power play.
4. The Caps are 13-1-2 when leading after two
periods. Only three teams have more wins when leading at the second
intermission. The other side of that is that the Caps are 1-9-4 when tied
or trailing at the second break.
5. Alex Ovechkin has an odd scoring split in games so
far this season. He has 13 points in 14 wins, he has 13 points in 16
losses. Nicklas Backstrom’s is similarly odd – 15 points in 14 wins, 16 points
in 16 losses. Either the Caps need to get secondary scoring to win games,
given the consistency of the two big guns, or the big guns need to produce more
to push the Caps into the win column more often.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Columbus: Ryan Johansen
For a while there, Ryan Johansen was scoring points in
bunches – two against Tampa Bay on November 8th, four points against
Philadelphia on November 14th, three against Boston on November 21st.
That three-point effort against the Bruins on November 21st was Johansen’s last
multi-point game. Since then he is 2-2-4 in 11 games, and he is without a
goal in his last seven contests. He is still tied for the team lead in
points, but one has the feeling his production is going to have to improve if
the Blue Jackets are going to continue climbing back up in the standings.
He is 3-2-5, plus-1 in seven career games against Washington.
Washington: Mike Green
Mike Green has once more had to deal with the injury bug,
most recently missing seven games to an upper-body injury. Still, Green
is without a point in his last six games, and he is without a goal in 17
straight contests, his last one coming on October 22nd in a 3-2 loss to
Edmonton. The subject of, if not loud, then persistent trade chatter,
Green has assumed what amounts to third-pair minutes for the Caps. He is
fifth among defensemen in even strength ice time per game (16:44), with only
partner Nate Schmidt logging fewer minutes per night at evens (14:06) among
defensemen appearing in at least 20 games. With the emergence of John
Carlson, the arrival of Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik, and his missing more
time to injury, Green does not cast a large shadow on the blue line these
days. Although Green has been a dominant player in a subtle way, it would be nice to see some of the old Green come out to play from
time to time. He is 1-4-5, minus-3 in 10 career games against Columbus.
In the end…
Last Saturday, the Caps had to deal with a Tampa Bay team
bent on revenge for a loss pinned on them by the Caps. Now, it is
Washington playing the role of the team looking to settle a score after
dropping the 3-2 overtime decision to Columbus last week. The Caps have
the incentive of trying to extend a nice streak of games with standings points
earned (4-0-2) and have a chance to stop the Columbus advance up the standings
in its tracks.
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