The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Winter Classic has arrived. After spending six New Year’s Days in
Buffalo, Chicago, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Ann Arbor, the crown
jewel of the NHL regular season schedule is finally in the most powerful city
in the world.
The Washington Capitals will host the Chicago Blackhawks
sometime on New Year’s Day at Nationals Park (the state of sun glare perhaps delaying the start) in what will
be the second appearance for each team in the Classic. The Blackhawks, who hosted the 2009 game at
Wrigley Field, dropped a 6-4 decision to the Detroit Red Wings, while the
Capitals, winners of a 3-1 decision in Pittsburgh in 2011, will be looking to
become the first team to win two Classics.
It will not be an easy task for the home team. Chicago currently holds the second best record
in the league (25-10-2). And, the
Blackhawks might be on the most sustained run of success in the league. Since they dropped a second consecutive game –
a 1-0 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on November 2nd to fall to 6-5-1 –
Chicago is 19-5-1 and has not lost consecutive games in that span.
Not that there aren’t cracks starting to show in the
Blackhawk armor, though. They are 5-2-1
in their last eight games after rolling off an eight-game winning streak. Part of the unsteadiness has been a product
of goaltender Corey Crawford’s unsteadiness.
He suffered a foot injury when he took a misstep as he was leaving a
concert. He missed eight games as a result, and his four appearances since
returning to the lineup have not been sharp.
In those four appearances he is 2-1-1, 3.22, .887, and he was pulled
after allowing three goals on 13 shots in 15:30 of a 5-1 loss to Winnipeg on
December 23rd.
Another factor that might have influenced the Blackhawks’
comparatively inconsistent record of late was the tragic passing of 34-year old
assistant equipment manager Clint Reif on December 21st, a loss that was keenly felt by the Blackhawk community.
Since the Christmas break the Hawks have won both games
played, a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche and a 5-4 Gimmick win over the
Nashville Predators. It suggests a
return to the sort of high-powered offense that has Chicago third in the league
in scoring per game (3.03). In each of
their last four wins they have scored at least four goals, while in their two
losses over that span they scored two (against Columbus) and one goal (against
Winnipeg). At the moment, this is a team
that does it (or doesn’t) with offense.
The Capitals finished a solid December with an 8-2-3
record. It was a solid month in some
ways, but they were fortunate in others.
The Caps outscored opponents by a 40-28 margin (3.08-2.15). It was even better at even strength, where the
Caps doubled up on opponents, 34-17.
That’s the good part, especially the even-strength production. Underneath, though, it is not quite as solid.
As far as the production numbers go, the special teams haven’t
had a great month. The PDO number
overall (103.38; shooting plus save percentages) was very good, but as for the
sustainability of it, it was fueled by an overall opponent shooting percentage
of 7.1 percent. That speaks to the fine
month that Braden Holtby had (8-2-3, 2.13, .929, 2 shutouts). The power play was just 6-for-43 (14.0
percent), and the penalty killers were no better: 36-for-46 (78.3 percent). The special teams index of 92.2 (power play
plus penalty killing percentages) was disappointing.
Drilling down even further, the Caps had a rather mediocre
month in terms of their possession numbers.
At 5-on-5 they had a cumulative Corsi-for percentage of 50.41 and a
Fenwick-for percentage of 48.44. They
were slightly better in 5-on-5 tied situations (Corsi-for: 51.83; Fenwick-for:
50.35), but not what one might call dominating.
Which brings us to the players. Ten skaters who participated in the 2011
Winter Classic in Pittsburgh are likely to be in the lineup on New Year’s Day
at Nationals Park (with their performances):
- Alex Ovechkin (0-0-0, minus-1; six shots on goal)
- Eric Fehr (2-0-2, plus-2; 3 SOG)
- Nicklas Backstrom (0-1-1, minus-1; 3 SOG; 10-for-16 on faceoffs)
- Brooks Laich (0-0-0, even, 2 PIMs; 2 SOG)
- Jason Chimera (0-2-2, plus-2, 2 SOG)
- Karl Alzner (0-0-0, even; 24:25 in ice time)
- Mike Green (0-1-1, even, 2 PIMs; five hits)
- John Carlson (0-0-0, even; 26:28 in ice time (led club))
- Jay Beagle (0-0-0, even; four hits)
- Marcus Johansson (0-1-1, plus-2; 6-for-12 on draws)
You look at that lineup and the performances from the 2011
Classic, and you start to think that while the marquee players – Ovechkin,
Backstrom, Green – will get the attention, it could be a game for the
supporting cast. The ice will not likely
be as bad at Nats Park as it was in Pittsburgh, where it might have been more
the consistency of a sno-cone in a persistent rain, giving an edge to the
grinders, but still, sometimes it is the player you do not suspect who will
shine, as Eric Fehr did in scoring two goals in the Caps’ 3-1 in Pittsburgh in
2011.
Who might that be coming into this game? Jay Beagle comes to mind. Beagle had a fine December (3-3-6, plus-5, in
13 games while getting as many as 15 minutes of ice time only once). He was quiet in the only meeting with the
Blackhawks this season (no points, one blocked shot attempt in 13 minutes), but
that was the eighth straight game he had without a point to start the
season. Since then he is 5-5-10, plus-2,
in 23 games. Not bad for a fourth liner.
What you do not expect is for rookies to make a big impression
in this game, at least based on the Caps’ experience. Not that the Caps had a lot of rookies on
that 2011 club – Carlson, Johansson, and Beagle. Those three players combined for
one assist, and the forwards (Johansson and Beagle) each skated only 13
minutes. It argues against players such
as Evgeny Kuznetsov or Andre Burakovsky standing out.
What you might look for is a veteran stepping up. Think of Mike Knuble scoring that greasy
power play goal to tie the 2011 contest.
Not only was Knuble a player with a fair amount of mileage, he was one
quite familiar to the Penguins after several seasons skating for the
Philadelphia Flyers. Perhaps Troy Brouwer,
a player who skated for the Blackhawks for parts of five seasons and 238 games,
plus an additional 43 post-season games with Chicago, will step up. Brouwer has had an uneven December, starting
the month without a point in three games, then going 4-0-4 over a five-game
stretch, before ending the month with just one assist in his last five games.
1. Only six
Blackhawks who played in the 2009 Winter Classic at Wrigley Field are likely to
dress for the 2015 game: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Patrick Sharp, Jonathan
Toews, Kris Versteeg, and Patrick Kane.
As a group they accounted for two of the four goals scored in their 6-4
loss to the Detroit Red Wings (Keith, Versteeg) and combined for four assists
(Seabrook, Sharp, Toews, and Versteeg).
2. Patrick Kane comes
into this game hot enough to melt the ice.
He is 6-8-14, plus-4, over his last nine games, with two game-winning
goals and two three point games.
3. Jonathan Toews is
not quite as hot as Kane, but he is not far off, either. Over his last seven games he is 2-6-8,
plus-4, with three multi-point games. He
has not gone more than two consecutive games without a point this season.
4. The Blackhawks
have already dressed ten defensemen this season. Nine of them have points. Only Tim Erixon has failed to get his name on
the score sheet in five games played.
5. If shots matter in
a game like this, the Blackhawks are sitting in a good position. They lead the league in shot differential per
game (+6.6).
1. Troy Brouwer
played in that 2009 Winter Classic for the Blackhawks, recording one hit and
going minus-1 in just under 12 minutes of ice time.
2. The Caps have lost
13 one-goal games this season, six in regulation and seven in extra time. Only four teams have lost more: Colorado
(14), Ottawa (15), Edmonton (14), and Carolina (15).
3. Only Montreal has
a better winning percentage (1.000/15-0-0) than the Caps when scoring first
(.850/17-1-2). Then again, no team has a
worse winning percentage (.063/1-10-5) when scored upon first. If you’re not keen on standing in the stands
on a cold day for the duration, this might be a fact to remember.
4. The Caps have allowed
seven power play chances in two of their last three games. They haven’t allowed seven or more chances
over a three-game span since they allowed seven and eight chances (to Tampa Bay
and Toronto, respectively) in a three-game span over Games 45-47 of the
2009-2010 season.
5. The Caps have 11
players with power play goals this season.
All of last season they had 11 players record power play goals.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Chicago: Corey Crawford
None of the goalies who will dress for this game were even
in the NHL when the Blackhawks hosted the Red Wings in the 2009 Winter
Classic. That includes Corey Crawford,
who played a total of seven games over the 2005-2006 and 2007-2008 seasons, but
who spent the entire 2008-2009 season with the Rockford Ice Hogs in the AHL. As we noted, he has not been especially sharp
in his return from the injury suffered in his concert adventure, and he has a
rather grisly career record against the Caps (2-2-1, 3.62, .875 in five career
appearances). Something to watch early –
the volume of shots the Caps throw at Crawford.
He has faced more than 30 shots only four times in 22 appearances this
season. He has done well against high
shot volumes (.924 save percwntage), but he has faced more than 30 shots only
once since November 14th, and in that one he allowed four goals on
40 shots to Nashville in a 5-4 Gimmick win this past Monday.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
If the Caps are going to rain shots down on Corey Crawford,
chances are that the largest number of them will come from Alex Ovechkin. He has been like a Gatling gun lately, although he has comparatively little to show for it. Since he started a ten-game run of five or
more shots per game with two goals on seven shots in a 5-3 win over the Tampa
Bay Lightning on December 9th, he has only three goals on 60 shots
(5.0 percent shooting). Even with that
two-goal game against Tampa Bay, Ovechkin has only five goals on 79 shots in
his last 14 games (6.3 percent). If
there is something to the notion of big players playing big on the big stage,
perhaps Ovechkin breaks out of his accuracy slump to start the new year. He is 6-3-9, minus-2, in nine career games
against Chicago.
In the end…
Here is a disturbing number hanging over this game: 5. The visiting team has won five of six Winter
Classics. The Philadelphia Flyers were the
only home team to win, a 2-1 overtime win over the Boston Bruins in 2010. And, four of the six games have ended in one-goal
decisions, three of them in extra time, another set of circumstances that does
not seem to favor the Caps, given their record this season in one-goal games.
Yeah, well…I got your numbers right here.
Capitals 5 – Blackhawks 3
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