The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take the ice on Saturday afternoon
against the New York Islanders looking to do something they have not done this
season. Seven times this season the Caps
have put together three-game winning streaks, and six times so far they have
failed to make it four in a row. On
Saturday they get to try once more to get that fourth straight win, this time
against the Metropolitan Division leaders in their last meeting of the regular
season.
The six times the Caps went into a contest with a chance to
win a fourth game in a row ended like this:
- vs. New Jersey: 0-1
- vs. Columbus: 2-3 (OT)
- at NY Rangers: 2-4
- at Philadelphia: 2-3 (OT)
- at Nashvllle: 3-4
- vs. Philadelphia: 1-3
This time, the Caps look for that fourth straight win having
won seven of their last nine games (7-2-0).
In doing so, they outscored opponents by a 28-18 margin. Much of that has been the product of special
teams, where the Caps have put together a power play successful nine times in
31 chances (29.0 percent). On the penalty
kill they are 19-for 22 (86.4 percent) in those nine games and have empty net
shorthanded goals in each of their last two contests.
For all their success in their last nine games, however, the
Caps have not gained any ground on the Islanders, who are also 7-2-0 in their
last nine games. That nine-game run for
the Isles started as if they were the kings of the 3-2 decision. In the first five of those nine games New
York played to a 3-2 decision four times, winning all of them. Lately, however, they have been winning in a
more convincing style. In winning three
of their last four games, all three wins have been of the three-or-more goal
variety.
Special teams for the Islanders have been a bit uneven over
those last nine games. The power play
was 2-for-7 in the first three of those games before going four games without a
goal. It came to life in the last two
games, though, with a goal in each to make the power play 4-for-25 in the 7-2-0
run (16.0 percent).
The penalty kill has been another story. After going 7-for-10 in the first four of
those nine games, the penalty kill is perfect over the last five games
(13-for-13 over the last five contests for an overall 20-for-23 record (87.0
percent)).
Individually for the Islanders it has been a case of the old
and the new doing the damage. As for the
“old,” John Tavares is 6-5-11, plus-4, in the nine-game run up to this game and
has a four-game goal streak. He has been
a big-time player in the 2015 portion of the season, going 14-14-28 in 22 games with 10
multi-point games to his credit. His
recent production has lifted him into the top-five in both goals (29, tied for
fifth) and points (60, fifth in the league).
Tavares is 10-8-18, plus-1, I 20 career games against the Caps.
The new is rookie Anders Lee, who is 4-6-10, plus-3, in this
nine-game stretch for the Islanders, including a four-assist game against the
Columbus Blue Jackets on Valentines’ Day.
Lee, a former sixth-round draft pick who has played parts of two seasons
with the Islanders before this season, ranks sixth among rookies in total
scoring (30 points) and is third in goals (19).
He has appeared against the Caps four times in his brief career and has
three goals, one in each of the three games played against Washington so far
this season.
On the back end, defenseman Travis Hamonic has been something of an
assist machine for the Islanders, recording seven helpers in the 7-2-0
run. It is out of the ordinary for
Hamonic, who has not been an especially prolific point producer in his
five-year career. The seven assists in
his last nine games is part of a longer one in which he has 10 in his last 13
games, bringing his season total to 18 assists overall. Goal-scoring is another matter. Hamonic does not have one in his last 31
games, dating back to November 26 when he scored one against, who else, the
Caps. He is 3-5-8, minus-1, in 16 career
games against Washington.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. When the Islanders
lost to the New York Rangers, 6-5, on February 16th it was their
first loss in the Metropolitan Division since they lost to the Caps on November
28th and their first loss at home to a divisional opponent this
season. They are 19-3-0 against teams in
the division.
2. New York is the
only team in the league to have scored 60 or more goals in both the first and
second periods of games this season.
They would be the only team to score that many or more in all regulation
periods, but they have only 59 in the third periods of games so far this
season.
3. Only Tampa Bay (142)
has scored more goals at 5-on-5 than the Islanders (132). That would be more impressive but for the
fact that New York has allowed the ninth-most goals at 5-on-5 (114, tied with
Minnesota).
4. The Islanders do
not put themselves in disadvantageous positions, at least with respect to man
advantages. Only five teams have been
shorthanded fewer times this season than the Islanders (162), and only four
teams have done so on the road (86).
5. New York is a very good possession team, carrying into this game a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5
of 53.4 percent, fifth in the league.
They are better in close-score situations at 54.4 percent, second best
in the league.
1. The 13 goals
scored by the Caps in their last three games is the most they compiled over a
three-game stretch since Games 2-4 this season, when they combined for 15 goals
over three games against Boston (a 4-0 win), San Jose (a 6-5 Gimmick loss), and
New Jersey (a 6-2 win).
2. Alex Ovechkin is
22-11-33 over his last 24 games, scoring 30.1 percent of the 73 goals scored by
the Caps in that span on his own and having a hand in 45.2 percent of the total
when his assists are added in. Over that
same span, Nicklas Backstrom is 7-20-27, his name appearing in 37.0 percent of
the Caps’ scoring plays. Backstrom (63
points) and Ovechkin (60) make the Caps the only team in the league with two
60-point scorers.
3. Washington and
Nashville are the only teams in the league with two defensemen with 36 or more
points. For Nashville it is Shea Weber
and Roman Josi with 42 points apiece; for the Caps it is John Carlson (40) and
Mike Green (36).
4. When the Caps
score first, they win. No team has more
wins than Washington when scoring first (28).
No team has fewer losses in regulation in those situations (one, tied
with Nashville).
5. One might like to
see the Caps improve their possession numbers late in games. In third period, close score situations the
Caps have a Corsi-for percentage of 51.9, 12th in the league. Their Fenwick-for percentage is somewhat
better in those situations (52.9; ninth in the league).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Jaroslav Halak
Jaroslav Halak is not assembling an especially impressive
season, numbers-wise, in goal for the Islanders. He is 22nd in goals against
average (2.47) and 30th in
save percentage (.911). What he does is
do just enough to win; he is tied with Montreal’s Carey Price for second among
goaltenders with 32 victories. However, he
has not improved with time this season.
Over his first 18 appearances, Halak was 14-4-0. 2.05, .926, with three
shutouts. Then he ran into a buzz saw
called the St. Louis Blues, who lit him up for 11 goals on 72 shots in
consecutive appearances. Including those
two games, Halak is 18-8-0 over his last 26 appearances, but his performance
numbers have deteriorated, a 2.76 goals against average and .901 save
percentage in those 26 games. He is
6-4-0, 2.67, .896 in 10 career appearances against the Caps, including a pair
of wins this season.
Washington: Evgeny
Kuznetsov
For what seems like forever, the Capitals have been
searching for a consistent, reliable center to man the second line behind
Nicklas Backstrom. They have had
one-year fixes and trading deadline fixes, but no one to take hold of the
position from within the organization. Evgeny Kuznetsov might finally be that
player. Although he has been quiet of
late (one point in his last five games), he is still 2-7-9, plus-5, over his
last 13 games. He is tied for ninth among
rookies in overall scoring (24 points), tied for third in power play scoring (8
points), and sixth in plus-minus (plus-10), despite ranking 65th in
average ice time (12:44/game). Kuznetsov
is 2-1-3, plus-1, in four career games against the Islanders.
In the end…
On the one hand, the Caps have not lost to the Islanders in
regulation time this season. On the
other, they have only one win in three games.
That is what a pair of overtime power play goals against will do. That makes this less a “statement” game than
a “demonstration” game, the Caps demonstrating that they are a team superior to
one that has built much of its record in the extra time portion of
contests. The Islanders have a 12-1
record in extra time this season (best record in the league), 7-1 in trick shot
competitions. These two clubs have been
playing to similar records recently and have similar records in regulation time
this season (Islanders: 27-19; Capitals: 26-17). It should make for an entertaining contest,
one that by game’s end should see the Metropolitan Division get just a little
tighter.
Capitals 3 – Islanders 2
No comments:
Post a Comment