The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys is one of the
most renowned rivalries in the National Football League. The Washington Capitals and the Dallas
Stars? Uh…no. Since the teams first met in October 1974,
when the Stars were in Minnesota and were the “North Stars,” they have done
battle 90 times. Washington trails in
the series with a 29-44-16-1 record, which includes a 5-4 loss in Dallas on
January 17th, a game in which the Caps fought back from a 0-3
deficit to tie the game, only to allow goals 16 seconds apart in the third
period to stifle the comeback.
More recently, the Stars have been trying to claw out from
under the wreckage of a six-game losing streak (0-4-2) that dropped them from
four points behind the San Jose Sharks for the last playoff spot to six points
out of that spot (trailing the Calgary Flames) and all but ruining their
playoff hopes. Since that losing streak
the Stars are 3-1-0, but the damage might have been done.
The real damage was done just before that losing streak,
though. Late in the third period of a
game against the Florida Panthers, with the Stars nursing a 2-0 lead, Panther
defenseman Dmitry Kulikov hit Tyler
Seguin low and sent the Stars forward sprawling across the ice. Seguin suffered a knee injury, Kulikov was
suspended for four games for clipping Seguin, and the Stars started falling
further out of the discussion of playoff contenders.
Seguin returned to the lineup last Saturday against Tampa
Bay and scored a pair of goals after missing ten games. It did not matter; the Stars lost to the Lightning,
5-4. As it is, even with Seguin having
missed those ten games he is second on the team in total scoring (61 points),
and leads the team in goals (31) by a substantial margin over Jamie Benn
(23). Seguin is 4-3-7 in 14 career games
against the Caps, including a goal and an assist in the Stars’ 5-4 win on January
17th.
Of players playing in the first six seasons of their careers
over the 2009-2010 to the 2014-2015 seasons, only John Tavares has scored more
goals (169) than Jamie Benn (139). He
has scored 20 or more goals in each of his five full seasons to date (including
this one), and was on a pace to do so in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season (12
in 41 games). Lately, though, Benn seems
to have lost his touch. Since recording
a hat trick against the St. Louis Blues in a 4-1 win on February 17th,
Benn has one goal in his last ten games, none in his last eight. He is 2-4-6 in six career games against
Washington.
Kari Lehtonen wins games in goal for the Stars, but he isn’t
especially effective in doing so. Only
three goalies in the NHL have allowed four or more goals more times than
Lehtonen (15) – Edmonton’s Ben Scrivens (17), Arizona’s Mike Smith (18), and Jhonas
Enroth (15 times with Buffalo, three times with Dallas). His 2.94 goals against average ranks 36th
of 43 qualifying goaltenders; his .906 save percentage ranks 33rd in
that group. Lehtonen’s save percentage
at even strength (.911) ranks 36th among goalies appearing in at
least 25 games. Put another way, he is
not stealing games. Lehtonen is 12-24-5
when the Stars score three or fewer goals.
What he does have, though, is wins against the Caps. Lehtonen has not beaten any team in his
career as often as he has beaten the Caps (14-6-2, 2.61, .924, two shutouts in
22 appearances).
1. Only St. Louis has
scored five or more goals in more games (15) than the Stars (14; 11-1-2). The Stars are one of only four teams to have
scored five goals in a game and lost in regulation this season (the New York
Islanders, Calgary, and the Caps being the others). They lost, 7-5, to the Islanders on October 25th. By the way, the Caps’ loss in this category
was a 6-5 decision against the Arizona Coyotes on November 2nd.
2. Dallas scores
goals every which way. They rank fourth
in goals scored at 5-on-5 (144), seventh in 5-on-4 goals (39), tied for fifth
in 5-on-3 goals (3), tied for tenth in 4-on-4 goals (6), and tied for fourth in
4-on-5 goals.
3. Dallas allows
goals every which way, too. Their 153
goals allowed at 5-on-5 is second-most in the league. They are tied for fifth in most goals allowed
at 4-on-4 (6). The Stars are second
worst in allowing 4-on-4 goals (8). They
are tied for second worst in allowing goals at 3-on-4 (2; the Caps are worst
with four goals allowed). Dallas is tied
for eighth in most goals allowed at 4-on-5 (39).
4. Holding leads is
an issue for the Stars. They have the
sixth worst winning percentage in the league when scoring first
(.583/21-9-6). They have the tenth-worst
winning percentage when taking a lead into the first intermission
(.727/16-5-1), and they have lost eight games when leading at the second
intermission (three losses in regulation, five in extra time). No team has lost more games when leading
after 40 minutes.
5. Shot attempts are
hardly scarce in Stars games. Dallas
leads the league in total Corsi events (shot attempts), both teams, per 60
minutes at 5-on-5 (118.1) and total Fenwick attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5
(87.2).
1. Last season the
Caps had 16 players who finished the season in double-digits in points out of
35 skaters dressing for the club. This
season they have 17 players with ten or more points out of 27 skaters dressing
for the team. If there is an 18th,
it would seem new Capital Curtis Glencross would be the best candidate. He has four points in four games and has 14
more games to get six points.
2. Health has been an
issue for the Caps over the past few days, but it remains that the Caps have
had a comparatively fortunate season thus far.
Through 68 games, the Caps have had 13 players appear in 60 or more
games. In 2013-2014, the Caps had only
12 players all season who appeared in 60 or more games.
3. The Caps still
have the league’s best record in games decided by three or more goals
(12-3). Three of the Caps’ last six
games have ended in such decisions, and the Caps are 2-1 in those games.
4. Washington has the
league’s second-best special teams index at home (112.5, the sum of power play
and penalty kill percentages). Detroit
has the best (115.0).
5. One would like the
Caps to get off to better starts, possession-wise. Washington is 19th in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in the first period (50.0). They are much better in the second period
(52.9/6th), but they slip back again in the third period (50.5/18th).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Dallas: Antoine Roussel
Among the Stars’ top goal scorers, Tyler Seguin has missed
time to injury (as noted above), as has Trevor Daley (out the last week after a
knee-on-knee hit from the Islanders’ Matt Martin). Erik Cole was traded to Detroit, and Cody
Eakin was suspended by the team for disciplinary reasons earlier this week (he
was reinstated for Thursday’s game against Carolina). Where is the secondary scoring coming
from? Perhaps Antoine Roussel. The third year forward is seventh on the team
in goals (12), and he is the only player in the league with 12 or more goals
and 125 or more penalty minutes. He is
also a team-worst minus-14, so perhaps there are limits to his
contributions. He has not done much
scoring of late, though. He has one goal
in his last 21 games, over which he is a minus-12. In three career games against the Caps he is
1-0-1.
Washington: Troy Brouwer
When Troy Brouwer scored 25 goals and recorded 43 points
last season – both career highs – the thinking coming into this season was that
a regression was in order. Well, if
there is to be one, it might not be much.
Brouwer is on a pace to finish 22-19-41.
The 19 assists would tie a career high, and the 22 goals would tie his
second best season, 2009-2010 with Chicago.
He has found the goals a little harder to come by lately; he has three
goals in his last 17 games. Part of the
problem might be a bit more frequency in his trips to the penalty box. Brouwer recorded 22 of his 45 penalty minutes
this season in his last 14 games. He is
5-5-10 in 16 career games against the Stars.
In the end…
The Caps have shown a skill lately of dispatching struggling
teams effectively. They beat Buffalo
(6-1), Columbus (5-3), and Toronto (4-0), teams looking past this season. Dallas is on the brink of falling out of the
Western Conference race if they have not already. Their strength – scoring goals – has suffered
some slippage in March with 13 goals in five games (their season average is
3.08 goals per game). The Caps can use
this game as a springboard to get through a softer stretch of their schedule
(they get the Stars, Sabres, and Devils over their next six games before facing
Nashville and the Rangers in back-to-back games).
The Caps, who looked to be firmly installed as the first
wild card team and challenging for the Metropolitan Division lead a week ago,
are now just four points ahead of Boston with the Bruins holding two games in
hand and trailing the Caps by only one win in regulation and overtime. This game against the Stars is one that the Caps need to win, more than one might
think looking at the records of the two teams.
Capitals 5 – Stars 3
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