“No one is an artist unless he carries his picture in his head before painting it, and is sure of his method and composition.”
-- Claude Monet
Nicklas Backstrom came into the National Hockey League in
the 2007-2008 season. Since then, 478
players have appeared in at least 300 games.
Of that group, only four players have averaged more assists per game
than Backstrom: Sidney Crosby, Henrik Sedin, Evgeni Malkin, and Joe Thornton. In fact only 18 players in the modern era
(post-1967 expansion) having played in at least 300 games have averaged more
assists per game than Backstrom.
By any reasonable measure, Nicklas Backstrom is an elite
playmaker and arguably one of the best playmakers in the modern era of hockey. He is also among its most consistent scorers
overall. In his eight seasons in the NHL
Backstrom has 572 points in 577 games.
His 0.99 points per game ranks tenth overall among players with at least300 games played since he came into the league.
Last season, Backstrom led the league in assists (60) and
managed 78 points in 82 games. The 82
games played was the sixth time in eight seasons that he appeared in every
regular season game. What made last
season’s total impressive was that he did it despite a hip injury that started
giving him trouble in the middle of the season. It was one that would require surgery to correct.
In retrospect, there were some telltale signs that something was not quite right with Backstrom. In his first 60 games he was 18-46-64 and only went as many as three straight games without a point once. However, in his last 22 games he was 0-14-14 and had two three-game streaks without a point. His shooting frequency dropped, accounting in part for that lack of goal scoring, averaging only 1.27 shots per game in his last 22 contests after averaging 2.08 shots per game in his first 60 contests.
In retrospect, there were some telltale signs that something was not quite right with Backstrom. In his first 60 games he was 18-46-64 and only went as many as three straight games without a point once. However, in his last 22 games he was 0-14-14 and had two three-game streaks without a point. His shooting frequency dropped, accounting in part for that lack of goal scoring, averaging only 1.27 shots per game in his last 22 contests after averaging 2.08 shots per game in his first 60 contests.
Fearless’ Take…
The hip injury is a concern, of course, and this team has
enough depth so that rushing Backstrom back into the lineup should not be
something to worry about...too much. One might be
more concerned about after effects of Backstrom’s game was predicated on speed
or slipperiness. It is not. Backstrom is one of the most adept players in
the league at bending the pace of a game in the offensive end to his speed. His is a style that emphasizes vision,
anticipation, and soft hands more than stickhandling and fast-breaking up
ice. If there is any aspect of his game
in which there might be an accommodation, at least at first as he returns to
the lineup, it might be in penalty killing,
He averaged about a minute per game in those situations last season.
The part of Backstrom’s game that gets comparatively little
attention is where he absence might be felt most – defense. It was something that got then new head coach
Barry Trotz’ attention early last season.
It might be here where any mobility issues with respect to Backstrom’s hip
injury and recuperation might be seen most clearly. Backstrom has also made himself into an
accomplished faceoff performer. While he
was once a weak in this are, Backstrom finished last season with a 53.6 percent
winning percentage, the best of his career, and a 55.3 percent winning
percentage at 5-on-5, also a career best.
Cheerless’ Take…
In his first three postseasons with the Caps, Backstrom was
12-18-30, plus-13, in 28 games. In his last
four postseasons, he is 6-15-21, minus-3, in 43 games. Part of that is perhaps injury (hand in 2011,
concussion in 2012, hip last season), but the lack of production has been a
factor in the Capitals’ winning only three of their seven series over their
last four appearances in the playoffs and not advancing past the second round. It is not too much to say that it is not how
Backstrom starts the season that will be important as much as it is how he
finishes it. He has to produce at a
level more closely associated with his consistent scoring over the regular
seasons of his career if the Caps are going to go deep in the postseason.
The Big Question… How long can the Caps afford to have
Backstrom on the shelf?
Neither he, nor apparently the team, wants to rush his
return to the lineup. He is skating, but he said that “I’m not in a rush. I’m
going to be back to 100 percent before I start playing. I’m not going to play
on 90 percent." The Caps do not have a lot of experience in going without Backstrom; he has missed just 45 games over his eight-year
career, 40 of those coming when he suffered a concussion in the 2011-2012
season. The Caps are 22-17-6 in the 45
career games Backstrom missed, but that includes a 18-16-6 record in the
extended absence in the 2011-2012 season.
His absence will test the Caps’ depth early.
He will bear watching when he comes back. In eight seasons, Backstrom’s “20-game”
scoring line is a combined 34-116-150, a little behind his near point-a-game
pace for his career (a 17-59-76 scoring pace per 82 games), but he has more
than 20 points in his first 20 games of the year in four of his last six
seasons. His history, particularly his
recent history, has been to hit the ground running when he takes the ice. The Caps have ten games in October. One hopes that is the outer limit of time missed as he completes his recuperation.
In the end…
Last year at this time, we said…
“As much as Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom is the indispensable Capital. There is no substitute for him anywhere in the Capitals system.”
This year, the Caps might have a player to assume the first
line center responsibilities in Evgeny Kuznetsov, but one has to think that he lacks
enough experience to perform those duties on a par with Backstrom. It could make for a bumpy start for the Caps
as Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky each move up a rung on the Caps ladder at
center.
Given the nature of Backstrom’s game and his ability to put
others (most notably Alex Ovechkin) in a better position to finish plays, the
effects of the absence could be significant.
At 5-on-5 last season, Ovechkin’s Corsi-for with Backstrom was 54.3
percent, 50.0 percent without him. With
Evgeny Kuznetsov it was 47.1 percent when together, 54.2 when apart from
Kuznetsov. With Burakovsky those numbers
are 54.4 percent when together, 53.4 percent when apart (numbers from
stats.hockeyanalysis.com).
Backstrom’s absence will place a burden on the young centers
Kuznetsov and Burakovsky to take a large step forward in their respective
games, to put more colors in their respective palettes. Backstrom, on the other hand, is an
accomplished artist whose gifts might be better appreciated in his absence and
for which the Caps and their fans will be more grateful upon his return.
Projection: 66 games, 14-46-60, plus-6
Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America
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