The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return home from their two-game road
trip to Detroit and Philadelphia to take on the Calgary Flames at Verizon
Center on Friday night. In an odd twist
of the schedule, the Flames are the first team that the Caps will be facing for
a second time this season. Washington
won the first meeting in Calgary by a 6-2 margin on October 20th.
For the Capitals, not a lot has changed since that first
meeting. They were 3-1-0 before taking
on the Flames the first time, and since that win they are 6-3-0 going into
their game against Philadelphia on Thursday night. The goal scorers in that game – Nicklas
Backsrom (2), Alex Ovechkin, Jason Chimera, Andre Burakovsky, and T.J. Oshie –
represent the top-end and secondary scoring of a sort the Caps need to be
successful.
What the Caps have not had, though, is just that, at least
on a consistent basis. Since his
two-goal game against Calgary, Backstrom has two goals in his last nine
games. Chimera has one in his last night
games, none in his last eight since scoring against the Flames. Burakovsky has one goal in nine games since
recording one in Calgary. T.J. Oshie
also has one goal in his last nine contests since getting one against the
Flames. Of that group, Alex Ovechkin is
the only player who has maintained a somewhat consistent goal scoring pace
since Calgary, getting four in his last nine games (all results are before the
Caps’ game in Philadelphia on Thursday night).
Meanwhile, the Flames are showing some signs of coming out
of a slow start. After dropping nine of
their first 11 decisions to open the season (2-8-1), the Flames are 3-2-0 in
their last five contests going into their game against the Tampa Bay Lightning
on Thursday night.
In those five games, the Flames outscored their opponents by
a 18-17 margin, three of the decisions coming by one goal (a win, a loss, and a
win in overtime). The Flames are led in
scoring over this five-game stretch by Michael Frolik (3-3-6), who had a hat
trick in the Flames’ 5-4 win over the Edmonton Oilers that kicked off this
five-game run. That hat trick was a
quite odd occurrence for Frolik. It was
the only game in which he has scored a goal this season. It was his first multi-goal game since
Opening Night of the 2013-2014 season (also against Edmonton), and it was the
first hat trick of his eight-year career.
He has had some success against the Caps, going 6-7-13, minus-5, in 22
career games against Washington.
Johnny Gaudreau also has three goals in this 3-2-0 stretch
for Calgary. Two of them came in a 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on
November 7th. With four goals in 16
games, Gaudreau is a bit behind his goal scoring pace of last year (24 in 80
games), but with a 4-13-17 scoring line in 16 games he is well ahead of his
rookie season points pace (24-40-64 in 80 games). It might not come as much surprise that
Gaudreau is officially the lightest of 685 players to have dressed for an NHL
team this season at 157 pounds. This
will be his fourth game facing the Caps, and he is 0-2-2, even in his first
three career games against them.
Mark Giordano leads the Calgary defense in goals (4) and is
tied with Dennis Wideman in points (6), but he has just one point (a goal) in
the last five games. In fact, since
recording two goals (including the game-winner) and an assist in a 3-2 overtime
win against the Detroit Red Wings on October 23rd, Giordano has only two points
in his last nine contests. He is 2-3-5,
plus-1, in seven career games against Washington.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. It’s not that Calgary gives up a ton of shots per game in
allowing so many goals; they are 18th overall in shots allowed (30.1). It is that their save percentage is so poor
-- .873. That would be poor by 1980’s
standards.
2. Calgary is not
especially good at the little things, either, at least as far as taking
faceoffs is concerned. Their 48.2
percent winning percentage is 28th in the league.
3. If the Flames
score first, they would seem to have a fighting chance. They are 4-4-1 when getting the first
goal. If they don’t, well… They are
1-7-0 when allowing the first goal of a game.
4. As one might
expect, when the Flames lose, they don’t make it suspenseful. Their seven losses by three or more goals is
worst in the league.
5. Calgary’s 5-on-5 possession numbers are not bad overall –
48.7 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5. And it
does not get appreciably worse in close score situations – 48.0, 23rd in the
league. It seems to come back to their
goaltending (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. For those who aren’t
concerned about 15 games being too early to draw historical comparisons, the
Caps are on a pace to finish with 120 standings points. Compare that to the 2009-2010 franchise
record-setting team that finished with 121 poiints.
2. That 2009-2010
team was just 8-3-4 after 15 games.
3. The 2009-2010 team
allowed 3.06 goals per game through 15 games; this team is allowing just 2.27
goals per game.
4. By this time in
2009-2010 the Caps already had two losing streaks of at least three games. This team has yet to lose consecutive games.
5. The 2009-2010 team
had a penalty kill of just 78.6 percent through 15 games and allowed 70 power
play chances. This team is at 84.1
percent and has allowed only 44 chances, fifth-fewest in the league.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Calgary: Karri Ramo
Goaltender Karri Ramo has had an interesting season thus
far. He was pulled in the second period
of the 6-2 loss to the Caps last month, was waived the following day, cleared
waivers and was sent to Stockton in the AHL the next day, then was recalled by
the Flames on October 29th. Since then
he has appeared in five games – all five games of this 3-2-0 run for the Flames
– and has not really been the reason the Flames have a winning record in their
last five contests. Over those games he
has a 3.21 goals against average and a .891 save percentage. Ramo got the start last night against Tampa Bay; we'll see if he gets the nod tonight. He is 1-5-2, 3.40, .897 in nine career
appearances against the Caps.
Washington: Nate Schmidt
You are a 24-year old defenseman trying to climb your way
into a regular spot in the lineup after two seasons of part-time play split
with the AHL club. You appeared in nine
games so far this season, going into last night's game, and in all but one you have a Corsi-for percentage at
5-on-5 of 50 percent or better. Seven
times you were over 55 percent; five times you were at 60 percent or
better. There isn’t a single defenseman
in the league with more than 100 5-on-5 minutes played with a better Corsi-for
at fives. Going into Thursday’s games you
are the only one over 60 percent for the season (60.1). Sure, you are getting third pair minutes with
all that entails, but your team is 6-3-0 when you are in the lineup. You are hardly a liability. You are Nate Schmidt, and you are having a
quiet coming out party in the early going this season. In three career games against Calgary,
Schmidt is 0-1-1, minus-2.
In the end…
So, Calgary is 3-2-0 after a ghastly start to the season,
but their wins are against Edmonton, Philadelphia, and at home against
Pittsburgh on a night when the Penguins were playing the back half of a
back-to-back set of games. Their losses
were at Colorado and at Florida. It
hasn’t exactly been a Murderer’s Row the Flames faced. They are moving up a couple of weight classes
against a club that wants to re-establish momentum.” And, the Caps are much deeper and skilled,
well, everywhere. A 6-2 decision might
not be in the offing, but the Caps will be able to see it from the result of
this game.
Capitals 5 – Flames 2
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