The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 16: Flames at Capitals, November 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home from their two-game road trip to Detroit and Philadelphia to take on the Calgary Flames at Verizon Center on Friday night.  In an odd twist of the schedule, the Flames are the first team that the Caps will be facing for a second time this season.  Washington won the first meeting in Calgary by a 6-2 margin on October 20th.

For the Capitals, not a lot has changed since that first meeting.  They were 3-1-0 before taking on the Flames the first time, and since that win they are 6-3-0 going into their game against Philadelphia on Thursday night.  The goal scorers in that game – Nicklas Backsrom (2), Alex Ovechkin, Jason Chimera, Andre Burakovsky, and T.J. Oshie – represent the top-end and secondary scoring of a sort the Caps need to be successful.

What the Caps have not had, though, is just that, at least on a consistent basis.  Since his two-goal game against Calgary, Backstrom has two goals in his last nine games.  Chimera has one in his last night games, none in his last eight since scoring against the Flames.  Burakovsky has one goal in nine games since recording one in Calgary.  T.J. Oshie also has one goal in his last nine contests since getting one against the Flames.  Of that group, Alex Ovechkin is the only player who has maintained a somewhat consistent goal scoring pace since Calgary, getting four in his last nine games (all results are before the Caps’ game in Philadelphia on Thursday night).

Meanwhile, the Flames are showing some signs of coming out of a slow start.  After dropping nine of their first 11 decisions to open the season (2-8-1), the Flames are 3-2-0 in their last five contests going into their game against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night.

In those five games, the Flames outscored their opponents by a 18-17 margin, three of the decisions coming by one goal (a win, a loss, and a win in overtime).  The Flames are led in scoring over this five-game stretch by Michael Frolik (3-3-6), who had a hat trick in the Flames’ 5-4 win over the Edmonton Oilers that kicked off this five-game run.  That hat trick was a quite odd occurrence for Frolik.  It was the only game in which he has scored a goal this season.  It was his first multi-goal game since Opening Night of the 2013-2014 season (also against Edmonton), and it was the first hat trick of his eight-year career.  He has had some success against the Caps, going 6-7-13, minus-5, in 22 career games against Washington.

Johnny Gaudreau also has three goals in this 3-2-0 stretch for Calgary. Two of them came in a 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on November 7th.  With four goals in 16 games, Gaudreau is a bit behind his goal scoring pace of last year (24 in 80 games), but with a 4-13-17 scoring line in 16 games he is well ahead of his rookie season points pace (24-40-64 in 80 games).  It might not come as much surprise that Gaudreau is officially the lightest of 685 players to have dressed for an NHL team this season at 157 pounds.  This will be his fourth game facing the Caps, and he is 0-2-2, even in his first three career games against them.

Mark Giordano leads the Calgary defense in goals (4) and is tied with Dennis Wideman in points (6), but he has just one point (a goal) in the last five games.  In fact, since recording two goals (including the game-winner) and an assist in a 3-2 overtime win against the Detroit Red Wings on October 23rd, Giordano has only two points in his last nine contests.  He is 2-3-5, plus-1, in seven career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1. It’s not that Calgary gives up a ton of shots per game in allowing so many goals; they are 18th overall in shots allowed (30.1).  It is that their save percentage is so poor -- .873.  That would be poor by 1980’s standards.

2.  Calgary is not especially good at the little things, either, at least as far as taking faceoffs is concerned.  Their 48.2 percent winning percentage is 28th in the league.

3.  If the Flames score first, they would seem to have a fighting chance.  They are 4-4-1 when getting the first goal.  If they don’t, well… They are 1-7-0 when allowing the first goal of a game.

4.  As one might expect, when the Flames lose, they don’t make it suspenseful.  Their seven losses by three or more goals is worst in the league.

5. Calgary’s 5-on-5 possession numbers are not bad overall – 48.7 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5.  And it does not get appreciably worse in close score situations – 48.0, 23rd in the league.  It seems to come back to their goaltending (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  For those who aren’t concerned about 15 games being too early to draw historical comparisons, the Caps are on a pace to finish with 120 standings points.  Compare that to the 2009-2010 franchise record-setting team that finished with 121 poiints.

2.  That 2009-2010 team was just 8-3-4 after 15 games.

3.  The 2009-2010 team allowed 3.06 goals per game through 15 games; this team is allowing just 2.27 goals per game.

4.  By this time in 2009-2010 the Caps already had two losing streaks of at least three games.  This team has yet to lose consecutive games.

5.  The 2009-2010 team had a penalty kill of just 78.6 percent through 15 games and allowed 70 power play chances.  This team is at 84.1 percent and has allowed only 44 chances, fifth-fewest in the league.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Karri Ramo

Goaltender Karri Ramo has had an interesting season thus far.  He was pulled in the second period of the 6-2 loss to the Caps last month, was waived the following day, cleared waivers and was sent to Stockton in the AHL the next day, then was recalled by the Flames on October 29th.  Since then he has appeared in five games – all five games of this 3-2-0 run for the Flames – and has not really been the reason the Flames have a winning record in their last five contests.  Over those games he has a 3.21 goals against average and a .891 save percentage.  Ramo got the start last night against Tampa Bay; we'll see if he gets the nod tonight.  He is 1-5-2, 3.40, .897 in nine career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Nate Schmidt

You are a 24-year old defenseman trying to climb your way into a regular spot in the lineup after two seasons of part-time play split with the AHL club.  You appeared in nine games so far this season, going into last night's game, and in all but one you have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 50 percent or better.  Seven times you were over 55 percent; five times you were at 60 percent or better.  There isn’t a single defenseman in the league with more than 100 5-on-5 minutes played with a better Corsi-for at fives.  Going into Thursday’s games you are the only one over 60 percent for the season (60.1).  Sure, you are getting third pair minutes with all that entails, but your team is 6-3-0 when you are in the lineup.  You are hardly a liability.  You are Nate Schmidt, and you are having a quiet coming out party in the early going this season.  In three career games against Calgary, Schmidt is 0-1-1, minus-2.

In the end…

So, Calgary is 3-2-0 after a ghastly start to the season, but their wins are against Edmonton, Philadelphia, and at home against Pittsburgh on a night when the Penguins were playing the back half of a back-to-back set of games.  Their losses were at Colorado and at Florida.  It hasn’t exactly been a Murderer’s Row the Flames faced.  They are moving up a couple of weight classes against a club that wants to re-establish momentum.”  And, the Caps are much deeper and skilled, well, everywhere.  A 6-2 decision might not be in the offing, but the Caps will be able to see it from the result of this game.

Capitals 5 – Flames 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 15: Capitals at Flyers, November 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After three contests against Atlantic Division clubs, the Washington Capitals return to intradivisional battle on Thursday night with a contest against a fellow Metropolitan Division foe.  The Caps are set to visit the Philadelphia Flyers at Core States First Union Wachovia Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

Both teams are coming off shutouts in their last outings, and not the good kind.  Washington was shutout by the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday night, 1-0, the second time they have been blanked this season.  The first was back on October 13^th in Game 2 of the season, a 5-0 loss to the San Jose Sharks.  It might be worth noting that after that result, the Caps peeled off a five-game winning streak, their longest of the season to date.

Meanwhile, the Flyers are coming off consecutive decisions in which a shutout was recorded, a 3-0 win at Winnipeg against the Jets last Saturday and a 4-0 loss to the Colorado Avalanche at home on Tuesday.  That win against the Jets is the lone win for the Flyers in their last eight contests (1-5-2).

The Flyers’ offense has been all but non-existent in their eight-game slide.  The have 12 goals in those eight contests, a drought that has dropped them to 29^th in scoring offense in the league (1.80 goals per game).  Of those 12 goals, Claude Giroux has a hand in five of them (1-4-5).  Giroux is the team leader in points so far this season with nine (4-5-9).  That makes the Flyers one of two teams in the league whose team leader in points has not yet cracked the double-digit level (Anaheim is the other).  Giroux has been one of the few consistent weapons in the Philadelphia arsenal this season.  Only once has he gone consecutive games without a point (October 29-30), and he has four points in his last five contests.  Giroux is 14-13-27, plus-2, in 25 career games against the Capitals.

Brayden Schenn is the club’s leading goal scorer (5) and the leading goal scorer over the Flyers’ recent eight-game downturn (3-1-4).  Perhaps no one on the club reflects the difficulties the club has had in recent games.  During a 2-1 overtime loss to the Calgary Flames a week ago, Schenn took one in the teeth – literally – for the team…

Schenn is 5-2-7, minus-4, in 14 career games against Washington.

One of the problems the Flyers have had scoring goals is getting little contribution from the defense.  The seven defensemen for the club to have dressed this season have a total of four goals, three of them by Mark Streit.  The ten-year veteran has built a reputation of being something of a special teams specialist.  More than half of his career goals (45 of 87) have been scored on the power play, and almost half of his career points have been recorded on the man advantage (189 of 392).  He has been a bit streaky, recording only one point in his first five games of the season and only one point in his last five games.  In between he was 2-4-6 in five games.  In 34 career games against Washington, Streit is 8-17-25, minus-1.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  The Flyer defense might not score a lot, but they do pile up the penalty minutes.  Through 15 games, Flyer blueliners have a total of 57 minutes in penalties (compare that to 34 in 14 games for Capital defensemen).

2.  Michal Neuvirth has gotten the call in four straight games in goal, filling in for number one netminder Steve Mason, who has missed time with a family matter and illness.  Neuvirth has had an odd go of it this season.  He has three wins, all shutouts.  In six other appearances he is 0-3-1, 3.28, .910.  It has been quite an all-or-nothing proposition with Neuvirth so far this season.

3. As one might expect from a team with as weak an offense as the Flyers, their shooting effectiveness is anything but effective.  They rank 29^th in shooting percentage (5.9 percent).  Only Anaheim is worse (5.6 percent).

4.  The Flyers have the worst first period goal differential in the league (minus-9).  Only five teams have a worse third period goal differential than Philadelphia (minus-4).

5.  Not that they have been good in their possession numbers, but the Flyers have not been as awful as their offensive performance numbers would suggest.  They rank 20^th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6) and 21^st in close score situations (48.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Here is your odd Alex Ovechkin stat for the game.  He had 15 shots on goal in the 1-0 loss to the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday.  It was the eighth time in 13 games this season he recorded five or more shots.  The Caps are 5-3-0 in those games.  In the five games in which he recorded fewer than five shots, the Caps are 5-0-0.

2.  Washington has the second best shot differential, for and against, in the league (plus-5.4 per game).  Only Carolina is better (plus-5.5).

3.  The Caps had a modest two-game power play goal streak stopped by the Red Wings on Tuesday.  Oddly enough for a power play as strong as the Caps, the two-game streak tied their longest streak of games with a power play goal this season (Games 3 and 4 against Chicago and Carolina).  Washington is just 2-for-16 on the power play in road games this season (12.5 percent).

4.  Only two teams have more wins by three or more goals than the Capitals (5).  The New York Rangers and Montreal Canadiens each have seven such wins.

5.  Odd team possession stat.  The Caps have had offensive zone starts at 5-on-5 of 50 percent or better in 10 of their 14 games so far.  In the four in which they did not, they won three times (against Boston, Edmonton, and Chicago), their only loss being the 1-0 loss to Detroit on Tuesday (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Steve Mason

Steve Mason has not won a game in regulation time this season in goal for the Flyers.  In eight appearances so far he has two wins, one coming in overtime against Boston on October 21^st, the other coming in a Gimmick on October 24^th.  Of 45 goalies having appeared in five or more games through Tuesday’s games, Mason is 42^nd in goals against average (3.34) and 35^th in save percentage (.902).  He has not appeared in a game since dropping a 4-1 decision to the Vancouver Canucks on November 2^nd.  With Michal Neuvirth having sustained an injury in the third period of the Flyers’ 4-0 loss to Colorado on Tuesday, Mason is expected to get the start against the Caps.  In 13 career appearances against Washington, he is 7-3-2, 2.65, .910, with two shutouts.

Washington:  T.J. Oshie

Since recording the game-winning goal in the third period of a 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on October 20^th, T.J. Oshie is without a point in his last five games.  It is his longest streak without a point since he opened the 2014-2015 season with a six-game streak.  His performance on the road could use some punching up.  He is 1-2-3 in six road contests, but he is without a point in his last three road games.  He does not have a point against the Flyers since recording a goal in a 4-2 St. Louis Blues win over Philadelphia on October 22, 2011 (four games).  Over his career against the Flyers, Oshie is 2-2-4, minus-1, in eight games.

In the end…

Philadelphia is a struggling team.  They are 1-5-2 in their last eight games, and they have not won a home game in regulation in almost a month (3-0 over Chicago on October 14^th).  They cannot score with any regularity, and unless their goalie pitches shutouts, their chances of winning drop precipitously (2-7-3 in games in which they allow a goal).  The trouble for the Caps is that they have lost four in a row in Philadelphia (0-3-1) since beating the Flyers, 7-0, back on November 1, 2013.  The thing to watch is the play of Braden Holtby.  He is 4-4-4, 2.95, .900, with two shutouts in 13 career appearances against the Flyers.  On the other hand, in three games following losses this season, Holtby is 3-0-0, 1.00, .965, allowing a single goal in each game.  Getting a split on a two-game road trip would not be the worst thing for the Caps.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 14: Capitals at Red Wings, November 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals embark on what amounts to “Reunion Week,” kicking off a two game road trip that will take them to Detroit to face the Red Wings and former Caps defenseman Mike Green on Tuesday and then to Philadelphia on Thursday where they could face former Caps netminder Michal Neuvirth.

First up is Washington’s first visit to Motown of the season.  It will be the 108^th meeting of the clubs, all-time, and the Caps are 44-44-16-3 against the Red Wings in their first 107 meetings.  Washington is 17-22-11-3 when visiting Detroit, but they have had recent success at Joe Louis Arena.  In their last four visits to The Joe, Washington is 3-0-1.  The Caps have been successful on the road so far this season overall as well, going to Detroit with a 4-1-0 record away from Verizon Center.

The Caps started their road season in dominating fashion, winning their first three games and outscoring their opponents – Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver – by a 16-8 margin in the process.  Their last two road contests have not featured much in the way of fireworks, the Caps scoring two goals in each game and splitting the decisions, a 2-1 overtime win over the Florida Panthers and a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers.

The 20 goals scored on the road by the Caps are shared by nine players.  Evgeny Kuznetsov leads the club with four scores, three of them coming on a hat trick in a 7-4 win over Edmonton on October 23^rd.  Kuznetsov also leads the club in points on the road with ten.

On the other side, the Red Wings are having their struggles at home.  Their 4-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on Sunday dropped their home record to 3-4-0 this season.  They have been outscored on home ice by a 17-15 margin, but this is a bit misleading.  Detroit won their first two home contests by a combined 7-1 margin.  They are 1-4-0 since and have been outscored, 16-8.

Overall, Henrik Zetterberg has had a hand in almost half of the goals scored by the Red Wings at home.  He is 2-5-7 for the Wings on home ice.  He is 4-11-15 overall, and he has not been held without a point in consecutive games so far this season.  Given that he was held without a point in the Red Wings’ loss to Dallas on Sunday, the Caps will have an opportunity to end that streak for Zetterberg.  In 14 career games against the Caps, he is 5-6-11, minus-1.

Justin Abdelkader and Gustav Nyquist are the goal scoring leaders for the Wings on home ice with three apiece.  Unfortunately for Detroit fans, that production came early in the Wings’ home season.  Abdelkader recorded all three of his goals in authoring a hat trick on Opening Night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, going 3-for-3 shooting that night.  In six home games since he is 0-for-12 shooting and did not record a shot on goal against Dallas on Sunday.  Abdelkader is 3-2-5, minus-3, in 11 career games against Washington.

Nyquist leads the team in goals overall (6), but his production at home has fallen off.  He had goals in two of his first three home games, but he has just one in his last one in his last four.  That one was the only goal in the Wings’ 4-1 loss to Dallas on Sunday.  Unfortunately, that goal was accompanied by a minus-3 (his goal was on a power play).  It was only the second time in 193 NHL games that he was a minus-3 in a game and the first time at home.  In six career games against Washington, Nyquist is 5-3-8, plus-2.

Goaltending has not been the problem for Detroit, either at home or in general.  Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek have split the minutes rather evenly so far, 432 for Mrazek and 405 for Howard.  Combined, they are tending goal to a 2.22 goals against average and a .930 save percentage.  It is even better at home where the goals against average is 1.89 for the two combined while sustaining a .930 save percentage.  If past is prolougue, Jimmy Howard could get the nod in this game.  Six of his seven appearances have come at home, where he is 3-3-0, 1.93, .922, with one shutout.  He did leave Sunday’s game in the third period with a head injury, but he was reported to have not been subjected to concussion protocol.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Clearly, the Red Wings miss Pavel Datsyuk.  The 13-year veteran has yet to dress this season after undergoing off-season ankle surgery.  He is said to be “close” to areturn, but it will not likely be for this game.  Datsyuk is the leader among active Red Wings in career games played with the club (887), assists (571), points (869), plus-minus (plus-242), shooting percentage (14.4 percent, minimum: 200 games).  He is second only to Henrik Zetterberg in goals (298 to 300).

2.  Detroit does not get eye-popping offense out of their blue line, but it certainly is balanced.  Five defensemen have goals this season (led by Jakub Kindl with two), and seven have points (led by Niklas Kronwall with 5).  What they do not get is power play goal scoring from the blue line.  Brendan Smith is the only defenseman with a power play goal for the Wings this season.

3.  One thing to watch in this games is shots on goal.  Caps fans probably realize that the Caps lead the league in fewest shots on goal allowed (25.2 per game).  On the other side of the ledger, the Red Wings are last in the league in shots on goal per game (25.1).  Only once in seven home games have they recorded as many as 30 shots in a game, and four times they finished with fewer than 25 shots on goal.

4.  Scoring in the first period has been a challenge overall for Detroit.  Only four teams have fewer first period goals than the Red Wings (7).   The silver lining there is that they have only allowed seven first period goals; only three teams have allowed fewer.

5.  Once upon a time, the Red Wings were possession monsters. From the 2005-2006 season through last season the Red Wings finished over 50 percent every year in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5.  Four times in those ten seasons they finished above 55 percent.  This year, they are struggling.  Detroit ranks 29^th of 30 teams in Corsi-for at fives (46.1).  Their score adjusted (46.8/29^th) and close score (45.3/26^th) are similarly disappointing.  They are better at home (50.5 overall/18^th), but they do not remind fans of the editions of Red Wings teams past in this regard (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Let’s go with a Russian theme for the first random fact in hopes of a record-setting night.  So far this season, 30 Russian born players have dressed for NHL games.  No team has had more goals scored from Russian born players so far than the Caps.  Alex Ovechkin (8) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (5) have combined for 13 goals.  The Chicago Blackhawks have ten goals from Russian born players – Artem Anisimov (6) and Artemi Pararin (4).  If Ovechkin makes it nine goals, he will stand alone among Russian born players in career NHL goals scored (he and Sergei Fedorov, who will be in the arena for this game, share the top spot with 483 goals).

2.  Alex Ovechkin has seven assist through his first 12 games of the season.  On the one hand, that is a pace for 47 assists for the season.  He has not had more than that many since the 2010-2011 season (53).  On the other hand, he had seven assists after 12 games last year, too, then finished the year with just 21 assists in his last 69 games (a 25-assist pace over 82 games). 

3.  The Caps have a three-man rotation on faceoffs – Nicklas Backstrom, Jay Beagle, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.  How many of you had Chandler Stephenson with the fourth-highest number of draws taken (without looking)?  Stephenson has taken 49 draws, winning 27 for a 55.1 percent winning percentage.

4.  John Carlson is one of 13 defensemen averaging at least 3:30 of ice time per game on the power play.  He and Kris Letang are the only ones in that group also averaging at least 2:30 of ice time per game killing penalties.

5.  The Caps are currently plus-6 in goal differential at 5-on-5 through 13 games.  That might not sound like a lot, but it is a plus-38 pace per 82 games.  If the Caps finish the season at plus-15 or better it would be their second best goal differential at 5-on-5 since the 2004-2005 lockout.  Only in their knockout offensive season of 2009-2010 were they better (plus-72; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Mike Green

Mike Green’s first season with the Detroit Red Wings has started the way too many of his seasons with the Washington Capitals ended – nursing an injury.  Green started the season appearing in the Wings’ first seven games, recording a pair of assists.  However, after recording the second of his assists for the season in the first period of a game in his home town of Calgary against the Flames, he sustained an upper body injury when he was hit by the Flames’ Josh Jooris.  Green missed the next six games, returning to the lineup in Detroit’s 4-1 loss to Dallas on Sunday.  He recorded an assist, but was a minus-2.  In his eight games he has been on ice for five of the 11 goals scored against Detroit at 5-on-5.  He is still a minutes eater, though.  In each of his last four full games, Green has logged at least 22:47 in ice time, and he leads the team in average ice time at even strength (17:19 per game).  This is, of course, his first game against his old team.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

Since Dmitry Orlov recorded a pair of goals in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on March 2, 2014, it will be 618 days, and counting, without a goal in the NHL when he takes the ice against the Red Wings on Tuesday.  That represents just 31 games of actual NHL activity in all that time, and Orlov does have four assists in the 13 games he has played to date.  Still, on a team where defensive defensemen Karl Alzner and Brooks Orpik already have goals, it would be good to get Orlov into crooked numbers.  Getting there will require some more aggressiveness in the offensive end.  In five road games he has only three shots on goal.  He has two career appearances against the Red Wings without a point.

In the end…

The Caps are playing the Detroit Red Wings, but they are not exactly the “Detroit Red Wings.”  This is not the possession dominating, deeply skilled, supremely confident squad that over a 22-year period through last season played at a 48-23-6-6 pace per 82 games (108 points), won 13 division titles, went to six Stanley Cup finals and won four Cups.  It is a team in transition, having parted ways with recently minted hall of fame defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom via retirement after the 2011-2012 season, and with the last sturdy links to their Stanley Cup champions – Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, and Niklas Kronwall – all north of 34 years of age.  This is a team working youth into the lineup.  For example, there is 19-year old Dylan Larkin – a 15^th overall pick in the 2014 entry draft – with 10 points in 14 games, tied for second on the team.  There is less heralded Teemu Pulkkinen (4^th rounder in 2010) with seven points in 14 games. 

Then there is the new head coach, Jeff Blashill, taking over for Mike Babcock.  Think about that for a moment.  In the 21 seasons preceding this one, 19 of them were coached, in whole or in part, by Babcock and hall of famer Scotty Bowman.  There is a lot of history weighing on this transition period for the Wings.  Add to that the fact that the Red Wings are somewhat beat up (Pavel Datsyuk Johan Franzen, Brad Richards, and Kyle Quincey on injured reserve), the Caps having had had some recent success in this building, and that they are playing solid hockey so far, the road trip should get off to a good start for the Caps.

Capitals 3 – Red Wings 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 13: Maple Leafs at Capitals, November 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice on Saturday night when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs at Verizon Center.  The Caps will be looking to move into double digits in wins and four in their last five games when they take on the Leafs.  Meanwhile, Toronto will be looking to break a four game winless streak on the road.

At home, the Caps have done it with a stifling defense.  In their five wins on Verizon Center ice so far, they held opponents to a single goal four times.  In fact, those four games holding opponents to one goal have come in their last four games at home. 

Meanwhile, the Leafs cannot seem to find the back of the net on the road.  In compiling a 1-4-1 record on the road so far, Toronto is averaging only 2.00 goals per game.  And if not for Leo Komaraov, who has four of their dozen goals, the Leafs would be in a deeper hole.  Komarov has been something of a road warrior for the Leafs.  Four of his five goals for the season have come away from Air Canada Centre.  It establishes something of a career trend for the three-year veteran.  Of his 17 career goals, 11 have come on the road.  None of those goals – home or road – have come at the Capitals’ expense.  He has two assists in six career games against Washington.

There are five players in the NHL with eight assists but without a goal so far this season.  Defenseman Dion Phaneuf is one of them going into Friday night’s schedule of games.   In fact, Phaneuf will come into this game without a goal in his last 33 games dating back to last season.  He has not scored a goal on the road in almost 11 months, last recording one at Carolina in a 4-1 loss to the Hurricanes on December 18, 2014.  Phaneuf, who was once an up-and-coming two-way defender with a physical edge, has seen his offensive production go into decline in recent years.  After scoring 10 goals in 48 games in 2011-2012 (0.19 per game), he was down to nine goals in 70 games last season (0.04 per game), and he is looking for his first tally this season.  In 18 career games against Washington, Phaneuf is 1-6-7, minus-8.

In goal for the Leafs, it’s pick your poison.  They have not settled on a number one netminder, largely because neither Jonathan Bernier nor James Reimer have played like one.  Bernier has more appearances (seven) than Reimer (six), but Reimer has a better goals against average (2.82 to 3.02) and a better save percentage (.908 to .899).  He also has both Toronto wins.  Reimer’s performance to date has not varied much from his career numbers to date (2.90 GAA, .913 save percentage).  He is 2-4-1, 2.87, .920 in seven career appearances against the Caps. 

Of Bernier, more was expected.  A former 11^th overall draft pick by the Los Angeles Kings, he put up fine numbers in his first season in Toronto after being traded to the Leafs in June 2013.  He was 26-19-7 in that first year with Toronto with a 2.68 goals against average and a .923 save percentage, tied for fifth in the league among goalies appearing in at least 40 games.  Last season, though, his numbers sank to 2.87/.912, and they have only gone further south to start this season.  After stopping 34 of 35 shots in dropping a 2-1 Gimmick decision to the Buffalo Sabres on October 21^st, arguably his best effort of the season, he is 0-3-3, 3.76, .869 in his last three appearance.  Bernier is 3-2-0, 2.62, .909 in five career appearances against Washington, but he will not be dressing for this game.  Bernier is on injured reserve with a lower body injury.

Here is how the two teams compare overall:

1.  Five teams have a negative goal differential of 1.00 goals per game or more going into Friday’s games.  Toronto is one of them (-1.00).  The others are Philadelphia (-1.15), Anaheim (-1.17), Columbus (-1.21), and Calgary (-1.71).

2.  No team has had fewer occurrences of scoring first in a game than the Maple Leafs.  They have scored the first goal of a game only twice, one in a 4-1 win over the Dallas Stars last Monday.  It might be worth noting that the buzz didn’t last long.  They allowed the game-tying goal less than a minute later.  The other came in a 2-1 trick shot loss to the Buffalo Sabres on October 21^st.  Toronto also has the fewest instances of leads taken into the first intermission (one, tied with Philadelphia).  That was also in the 2-1 freestyle loss to the Sabres.

3.  The Maple Leafs are one of two teams to have two defensemen with eight or more points.  Dion Phaneuf and Morgan Rielly are the point-getters for the Leafs.  The other club is Montreal, with P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov.

4.  If there is one thing this game is likely not to feature, it is a lot of power plays.  Pending the results of
Toronto’s game against Detroit on Friday night, they are tied for 27^th in the league in power play opportunities.  They team they are tied with – Washington.

5.  Mike Babcock teams in Detroit were possession monsters.  Never in ten seasons with the Red Wings did they finish a season below 51.4 percent in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5.  Never did they finish a season below 51.9 percent in score-adjusted Corsi-for percentage.  Babcock has made inroads in communicating that perspective to his new team.  Toronto ranks tenth overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (51.3) and eighth in close-score situations (52.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Only the New York Rangers (7) have fewer first period power plays this season than the Caps (8, tied with Toronto).  And, for a team with a power play north of 22 percent (22.9 to be exact), they don’t have many power play goals.  Only 12 teams have fewer man advantage goals than the Caps (8).  No team in the league has as high a percentage of conversion and so few goals to show for it.

2.  More on special teams.  The first period differential in special teams ice time (10:21 on the power play and 31:24 killing penalties for a differential of -21:03) is not only the worst in the league, it is more than twice as bad as the 29^th place team – Toronto (10:20).  Maybe it is a product of power play efficiency, of dispatching power plays with a goal early in the man advantage, or maybe it is a product of an efficient penalty kill, milking it for the full two minutes at a time.  Still, that is a substantial difference from the rest of the league.

3.  The Caps are second in the league in third period goals scored (17).  They are tied with Montreal and Columbus for the most non-empty net goals scored in the third period (15).

4.  Thinking of beating Braden Holtby at home?  Bring a lunch and a tool box; it will be long hard work.  Holtby has allowed a single goal on Verizon Center ice in four of his last five games, two goals in the other, and he has an overall record of 5-2-0, 1.74, .934 at home this season.

5.  The Caps have five players with Corsi-for percentages at 5-on-5 at 60.0 percent or better for the season: Nicklas Backstrom (61.8), Brooks Laich (61.2), Nate Schmidt (61.0), Justin Williams (60.8), and Dmitry Orlov (60.0; numbers from war-on-ice.com)).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto: Morgan Rielly

In his first two seasons in the NHL, Morgan Rielly was consistent in his points per game from the blue line.  In his rookie season he averaged 0.37 points per game, and last year he averaged 0.36 points per game.  This season he is off to a fast start with eight points in 12 games (0.67 points per game), although that is fueled by a three-point game (1-2-3) against Dallas last Monday.  As it is, Rielly is 3-3-6 in his last six games.  However, Toronto being Toronto, those points also come with a minus-1 mark over those games overall.  With an overall scoring line of 3-5-8, minus-3, he has the misfortune of being one of two defensemen in the league with at least eight points and a minus-3 or worse (Minnesota’s Ryan Suter – 2-9-11, minus-3 – is the other).  Rielly is 1-1-2, even, in six career games against the Caps.

Washington: Justin Williams

Justin Williams is the picture of quiet efficiency these days.  He has points in his last four games (1-3-4), becoming the fourth Capital to reach double digits in points with his assist in the 4-1 win over the Boston Bruins on Thursday.  He is 2-6-8 over his last eight games.  Only three times in 12 games this season has he been on the minus-side of the plus-minus ledger.  Not coincidentally, those were in the Caps’ three losses this season.  His Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 is a superb 60.5 (although he ranks just fourth on the club).  And, his presence seems to rub off on others.  Wilson has skated more than 15 5-on-5 minutes with ten teammates so far this season.  In every single instance, the teammate has an equal or better Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 with Williams than apart from him (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  He is 8-10-18, plus-8, in 32 career games against Toronto.

In the end…

Mike Babcock is a fine coach, and he might turn the Maple Leafs into a fine team.  But at the moment, “fine team” would not be an apt description of the Maple Leafs.  Going into Friday’s game against Detroit, they lost seven of eight games, and four of their last five losses were by multi-goal margins.  They have yet to defeat a team on the road this season that has won a game (they beat the Blue Jackets in Columbus when the Jackets were 0-4-0).

The only way the Caps can lose this game is if the Caps “lose” this game.  Toronto does not have the depth or the skill at either end of the ice, and they do not have enough goaltending to keep the Caps from settling this game early, competition-wise.  If there is a danger for the Caps here, it is in the time they spend early in games killing penalties.  Toronto was 3-for-8 on the power play in two games heading into their Friday game against the Red Wings.  For the Caps, they will get either a goalie coming off a game the previous night (Reimer) or perhaps one who has yet to appear in an NHL game.  Antoine Bibeau was called up from the Toronto Marlies because Jonathan Bernier was placed on injured reserve with a lower-body injury.  Bibeau was 5-1-0, 2.17, .908 with the AHL club.  It makes for a difficult situation for the Maple Leafs that the Caps would do well to take advantage of from the drop of the puck.  Pound on them early, and it will be a quick night.

Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 12: Bruins at Capitals, November 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals look to rebound from Tuesday’s 5-2 smacking at the hands of the New York Rangers when they return home to host the Boston Bruins on Thursday night.  The Caps will be looking to extend an interesting streak.  They have gone 24 straight regular season games without losing in consecutive contests, posting a record of 17-6-1 over that span.

On the other hand, the Bruins are certainly hot in the here and now.  After dropping their first three games to open the 2015-2016 season (and being outscored 16-7 in the process), Boston is 6-1-1 in their last eight games, outscoring opponents by a 35-20 margin.  And have they spread the scoring around.  The Bruins have goals from 16 skaters and points from 19 skaters in the 6-1-1 run.

The leading goal scorers over this eight-game stretch are David Krejci and Brad Marchand with five apiece.  Marchand is on quite a tear to open the season.  His five goals in nine games is not unheard of (he had six in nine games to open the abbreviated 2012-2013 season), but only once has he recorded more than two goals in his first nine games of the season in his six-year career entering this season.  Part of his success is shot volumes that are almost Ovechkinian in their dimension.  Averaging just 2.04 shots per game over his career entering this season, Marchand has 33 shots on goal in nine games (3.67/game).  Only once in nine games has he been held under three shots on goal.  And, as if you think he might have sanded the rough edges of his reputation as a pot-stirrer, he is one of only two players in the league with at least five goals and at least 20 penalty minutes (Montreal’s Torrey Mitchell is the other).  In 19 career games against Washington, Marchand is 5-4-9, minus-3.

Krejci opened his season with a nine-game points streak, extending his points streak to 11 straight regular season games dating back to last season.  He already has four multi-point games this season, tied for the eighth-most in the league so far this season (through Tuesday’s games).  He has been a very productive power play performer, tied for the league lead in power play points (seven, with three other players, including teammate Patrice Bergeron).  Compare that to last season when Krejci had only eight power play points in 47 games played.  In 27 career games against the Caps, he is 5-13-17, minus-3.

If the Bruins have a problem, it is an unexpected one.  Tuukka Rask has spent the past six seasons establishing himself as one of the best puck-stoppers in the game.  Since assuming a regular spot in the Bruins’ goaltending rotation in 2009-2010, Rask was 133-80-34, 2.16, .926, with 25 shutouts in 261 appearances.  This season, things are a bit different, at least so far.  Rask has appeared in eight games to date, but he has a record of 3-4-1, 3.51, .876.  He has allowed five or more goals in four of his appearances.  He ranks 35^th in goals against average out of 39 goalies appearing in five or more games.  His save percentage is 37^th in that group.  His remedy?  “I have to make more saves.”  That seems clear.

Here is how the two clubs compare in their numbers to date:

1.  The Bruins have had substantial contributions from the defense in their recent good fortune.  Over their last eight games, the Bruins defense is 4-20-24.  For the season, through 11 games, the Caps’ defense is 5-20-25.

2.  Boston has the fourth-worst team save percentage in the league (.893).  The three teams beneath them in the rankings – Edmonton, Columbus, and Calgary – have a combined win-loss record of 11-27-1.

3.  It might be worse for the Bruins but for the fact that they are allowing the fourth fewest shots on goal per game (27.1). The three teams ahead of them in the rankings – St. Louis, Carolina, and the Caps – have a combined record of 21-13-1.  It seems it is easier to save a shot you do not have to face.

4.  Only one team has more players in double digit point totals than the five the Bruins have (Krejci, Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug, and Jimmy Hayes).  The Montreal Canadiens have a mind-boggling eight players with double digit point totals.

5.  Boston has a middle-of-the-road possession ranking – 12^th in corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (50.9 percent).  They do struggle late in games, though.  Their 48.0 Corsi-for percentage in the third periods of games ranks 22^nd (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps lost Game 11 of the season to the New York Rangers on Tuesday night.  Yes, it’s the Rangers.  Yes, it is a team that has given the Caps fits over the past few years.  But, here’s the thing.  It’s Game 11.  In 41 seasons, including this one, the Caps have a franchise record of 13-20-5 in Game 11 of the season.  And if you think it is better lately, now that the Caps are a competitive team, think again.  Since the 2007-2008 season, when the Caps reached the postseason for the first time since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Caps are 4-4-1 in Game 11 of the season. 

2.  Washington is averaging just 6:43 in penalty time per game.  Only Minnesota (6:27) and Carolina (5:30) average less.

3.  The Caps are averaging only 2.82 power plays per game.  Only three teams average fewer – Calgary (2.77), the New York Rangers (2.42), and the New York Islanders (2.23).

4.  The lack of power play opportunities put the Caps in the bottom half of special teams opportunity differential.  At minus-0.27 (power plays per game less penalty kills per game), the Caps rank 19^th overall.

5.  The Caps are the only team in the league that ranks in the top-five in Corsi-for percentage overall in each of the three periods of games: fifth in the first period (53.4), third in the second period (58.2), and fifth in the third period (54.3; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Jimmy Hayes

The journey of Boston native Jimmy Hayes to the Bruins was a circuitous one.  He was drafted in the second round of the 2008 entry draft by the Toronto Maple Leafs, but never suited up for the Leafs.  He was traded by Toronto to the Chicago Blackhawks for a second round draft pick in 2010, then was traded to the Florida Panthers as part of a multi-player deal in 2013.  Finally, the Panthers traded Hayes to Boston for Reilly Smith and Marc Savard last July.  In his first season with the hometown Bruins, Hayes is one of five players with at least ten points so far (3-7-10 in 11 games).  He has points in four of his last five games going into Thursday’s game against the Caps, including a three-point night against the Arizona Coyotes on October 27^th.  In five career games, Hayes has yet to record a point against the Capitals.

Washington: John Carlson

After John Carlson posted a three-assist game against the Edmonton Oilers on October 23^rd, it looked as if John Carlson had taken his place among the top offensive defensemen in the NHL.  Through seven games he was 2-8-11, plus-3.  Unfortunately, Carlson has not recorded a point since, going without one over his last four games and finishing a minus-3 in his last game, a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers.  His production on the power play – or lack of it – coincides with that of the Caps.  He does not have a power play point in his last four games, and the Caps have been blanked on the man-advantage over those same four games, going 0-for-9.  He does have a power play goal and a pair of assists on the man-advantage in 18 career games against Boston, posting an overall scoring line of 3-5-8, plus-3.

In the end…

The Caps are catching teams at the top of their performance cycle at the moment.  Columbus won two in a row before their game with the Caps last Saturday after losing their first eight games.  The New York Rangers went into their game against the Caps with a 4-1-0 record in their previous five games.  The Bruins will go into their contest against the Caps winners in six of their last eight games.  However, you can tell when a team might be coming to the end of their performance cycle.  After scoring 26 goals in five games (a 4-0-1 record), the Bruins scored a total of six goals in two wins before losing to the Dallas Stars, 5-3, in their last outing.

On the other hand, the Caps do have that string of games without sustaining consecutive losses.  They have shown an ability to manage the schedule fairly well.  They will be facing a team that has had surprisingly uneven performances in goal, depending largely on a deep and balanced offensive led by the league's best power play to put wins together.  The Caps will be looking to shore up what was a leaky defense in their loss to the Rangers on Tuesday and take advantage of the league's worst penalty kill.  That will be incentive enough to carry the Caps into the weekend on a high note.

Capitals 4 – Bruins 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 11: Capitals at Rangers, November 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice on Tuesday night, visiting an old and familiar enemy.  The Caps invade Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Rangers, a team that has ended the Caps’ playoff journey in each of the last three times the Caps reached the postseason.  It has not exactly been a cake walk for the Caps in the regular season, either.  Washington has lost four of their last five regular season contests to the Rangers and have a 6-11-1 record in their last 18 regular season meetings with the Blueshirts.

The Caps and Rangers will head into their contest in a standings points tie for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division, the Caps holding the edge by virtue of holding a game in hand and one more win.  Both clubs will bring two-game winning streaks into the contest.

The Rangers have had a bit longer string of good play, going 4-0-1 in their last five games after starting the season alternating three-game winning and losing streaks. The streak featured one of the stranger games in terms of scoring that you will find.  In the Rangers’ last outing, a 3-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, all three goals featured the same players in the same scoring roles.  Mat Zuccarello recorded a hat trick, Derick Brassard had all three primary assists, and Rick Nash had all three secondary assists.

Overall, the Rangers on this recent 4-0-1 run are led in overall scoring by Zuccarello (4-2-6) and Brassard (2-4-6), who also happen to be the team leaders overall in points.  Zuccarello, an undrafted free agent, has been on the brink of being a reliable goal scoring contributor for the past two seasons, posting 34 goals in 155 games overall.  This season he is off to a fast start in that regard with seven goals in 11 games.  He is doing it with an efficient that seems unlikely to stand up over time, shooting at 28 percent (7-for-25).  That is the effect of a hat trick in a small population of games.  In 10 career games against the Caps he has yet to record a goal, going 0-4-4, plus-4.

Brassard comes into this contest on a three-game points streak and points in four of five games.  Once a sixth-verall draft pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Brassard has yet to reach the level of performance one might have expected from such a high draft pick.  In nine seasons entering this one, Brassard has come close to the 20-goal mark for a season, but has not quite reached it.  He set a career best of 19 goals last season.  What he has been is more productive in the post season, recording 17 goals in only 54 career playoff games.  He is 2-6-8, plus-3, in 14 career games against Washington.

The Rangers have points from six of the seven defensemen to dress for the club so far this season, led by the six points posted by Keith Yandle.  Yandle has always been a top-notch offensive defenseman.  Since he became a full-time player in the NHL in 2008-2009, only Duncan Keith (333) and Shea Weber (328) have recorded more points among defensemen than Yandle (314, tied with Erik Karlsson).  He is one of only two defensemen – Karlsson and P.K. Subban being the others – to record at least 50 points in each of the last two seasons.  In 11 career games against the Caps, Yandle is 0-7-7, plus-1.

Henrik Lundqvist just keeps on going in goal for the Rangers.  In the early going this season he is in the top ten among goalies in wins (5/tied for 10^th), goals against average (1.87/4^th among goalies appearing in five or more games), save percentage (.944/1^st), and total minutes played (546/ninth).  Only once in nine appearances this season has he allowed more than two goals, and only twice has he finished a game with a save percentage lower than .935.  If there is a weakness, it is in that he ranks 12^th among goaltenders appearing in at least five games in save percentage in shorthanded situations (.895).  In 29 career regular season games against Washington, Lundqvist is 18-8-3, 2.52, .910, with four shutouts.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers:

1.  The Rangers are a top-ten offense (going into Monday’s games), but they are a bit unbalanced.  Of their 31 goals, 12 of them come from Mats Zuccarello (7) and Oscar Lindberg (5).  No other Ranger has more than three, and Rick Nash, who led the club with 42 goals last season, has only one in 11 games so far.

2.  If you look at the Rangers’ scoring as a glass half full, they start and end games well.  With 12 goals in the first periods of games, they rank fourth; their 13 third period goals is tied for sixth.

3.  In the glass half-empty version of this, the Rangers do not handle the long change well.  Only the Columbus Blue Jackets and Anaheim Ducks (three goals each) have fewer second period goals than the Rangers (six).

4.  Allowing goals by period has not been a problem.  The Rangers and the Pittsburgh Penguins are the only teams in the league to have allowed eight or fewer goals in each of the three periods to date.

5.  The Rangers have an uneven record with possession so far.  They rank 24^th overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.0).  However, in close score situations they rank 12^th (50.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  They dominate scoring in close score situations, outscoring opponents at 5-on-5, 15-8.

1.  T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams have not been resting on their contracts or past performance.  Both have eight points in 10 games.  Oshie is tied for third in goals overall (4) second on the team with four power play points.  Williams is fourth in assists (6) and third in plus-minus (plus-5).

2.  John Carlson leads the club in power play points (5).  Then there is Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov…. You will find Alex Ovechkin tied for fifth on the club with one power play point in nine games, and that one is an assist.

3.  Oshie is showing up at the other end, too.  His three blocked shots on the penalty kill leads Caps forwards, as does his nine blocked shots overall.

4.  Brooks Laich has gon 15 consecutive regular season games without a point, his longest streak since opening the 2006-2007 with a 16-game streak without a point.

5.  The Caps are fourth in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (54.2) and fourth in close score situations (55.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com). 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider seems to be the Ranger every Caps fan loves to hate.  Maybe it is a penchant for crowding goalies...

Or maybe it’s scoring big goals against the Caps (he had four in last spring’s seven game series).  Whatever, he is a player to whom Caps fans pay attention in this rivalry.  He comes into this game empty of points in two straight after putting together a three-game points streak.  What he is off to this season, though, is a slow start, goal-scoring wise.  Where he finished last season with a career-high 21 goals in 80 games, Kreider has only one goal in 11 games this season.  He does seem to be a bit more mindful of where he is on the ice though; he has only four penalty minutes this season after finishing last season with 88 penalty minutes in 80 games.  In eight regular season games against the Caps in his career, Kreider has one point – an assist. – and is plus-1.

Washington: Tom Wilson

It is early, but through ten games Tom Wilson is averaging about as many shots per game (1.20) as he did last season in 67 games (1.18).  On one level this is a bit troubling, since he is averaging almost three minutes more in ice time per game (13:39 versus 10:56 last season).  On the other hand, he is expanding his role.  Last season he finished the year with a total of 46 seconds of shorthanded ice time.  Thus far this season he is averaging 1:00 per game, seventh among forwards.  What he is getting as welol is more even strength ice time.  His 12:38 a game is almost equal to that for Justin Williams, for example (12:48).  With 159 games of regular season experience on his resume, it would be a good thing if the offensive production numbers started catching up with other parts of his game.  Wilson does not have a point in six career regular season games against the Rangers.

In the end…

In the 1980’s, the defining rivalry with the Caps was that against the New York Islanders.  In the 1990’s into the early 2000’s, it was the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Now, a case can be made that it is the Rangers that are the Capitals’ archrival.  All three rivalries were the product of postseason confrontations more than regular season battles, but from one carries over the other.  The Rangers have had their way with the Caps in recent years, in games that really mattered and a few that did not.  The common element in those frustrations has been the play of goalie Henrik Lundqvist.  All paths to victory in this game go through the veteran netminder…literally.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 10: Capitals at Panthers, October 31

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, jet out of town for a Saturday night meeting in South Florida where the Florida Panthers will be waiting.  The Panthers will be coming off their own game the night before, having lost by a 3-1 margin to the Boston Bruins.  Florida will have the advantage of playing both sides of their back-to-back games at home.

Before heading into their weekend set of back-to-back games, the Panthers put together a fairly impressive trio of games against Western Conference opponents.  They dropped a 3-2 decision in Chicago to the Blackhawks, then the roared back (get it?) with a pair of wins – a 6-2 thumping of the Stars in Dallas and a 4-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche last Tuesday.

Over those three games in which the Panthers recorded a dozen goals, the points burden was borne primarily by Vincent Trocheck, who recorded two goals and three assists to have a hand in almost half the Panther goals.  Trocheck, now in his third – and first full – season with the Panthers after being drafted in the third round in 2011, was tied for second on the team in goals (4) and points (9) going into the weekend. He leads the team in power play points (2-3-5).  He has a goal in his only previous appearance against the Caps, and he should be considered dangerous.  His hometown is Pittsburgh.

Reilly Smith chipped in a goal in each of the Panthers’ wins heading into the weekend. Smith, another third round draft pick (by Dallas in 2009), is already on his third franchise (Boston between stops in Dallas and Florida), despite the fact that he will not turn 25 years of age until next April.  The right winger has one assist in six career games against Washington.

So, you are a goalie with a 2.01 goals against average and a .939 save percentage.  You also have a win-loss record of 3-3-1. You are Roberto Luongo, Florida Panther goaltender.  This is Luongo’s seventh season with the Panthers, split into two tours of duty.  In 399 career games with the club he has a .921 save percentage, but his goals against average is 2.61, and his record is 145-183-55.  He has faced an average of 33 shots per game as a Panther.  The phrase “lack of support” comes to mind.  He has yet to allow more than three goals in any game so far this season, but allowing three seems to be a problem.  He has losses in all three games when allowing three scores (one in overtime).  And for good measure, he also has a 1-0 loss on his ledger this season. He does give the Caps fits, though.  In 36 career games against Washington, he is 20-10-0, 2.29, .926, with two shutouts.  He is also a real hoot on Twitter.

Here is how the two teams compare in their numbers heading into Friday’s games:

1.  Florida is one of only four teams with a positive goal differential per game of 1.0 or more (3.10 goals for per game, 2.10 goals against per game).

2. The Panthers are a very efficient shooting team.  They rank seventh in team shooting percentage (10.9 percent), and there are five players currently shooting at 20.0 percent or better (Connor Brickley, Vincent Trocheck, Jaromir Jagr, Reilly Smith, and Quinton Howden).

3.  Getting off to good starts against the Panthers is difficult.  They are tied for third in fewest first period goals allowed (5).

4.  Conversely, Florida will make teams pay in the third periods of games.  They are tied for fourth in most goals scored in the third period of games (14).

5.  When they are good, they are very good.  Four of Florida’s five wins to date have been by three or more goals.

  

1.  Last season, the Caps were 9-17-6 in games in which they scored two or fewer goals.  With last night’s 2-1 win over Columbus, the Caps are 1-2-0 in such games this season.

2.  The power play, one of the presumed strengths of the team, is 2-for-14 (14.3 percent) over their last five games.

3.  Washington is the only team remaining in the league for which every penalty assessed so far has been a minor penalty.  They have been whistled for 33 infractions, all minor penalties.

4.  This year’s version of the Capitals is less “heavy” than last year’s, at least to the extent they are credited with hits.  They have been credited with the fourth fewest number of hits in the league (193).  Only San Jose, Minnesota, and Carolina have fewer.

5.  Philipp Grubauer is likely to get the start in goal tonight for Washington.  In his brief career to date, he is 4-5-2, 2.80, .915 in 12 road appearances.

The Peerless' Players to Ponder

Florida: Jaromir Jagr

In hockey terms, Jaromir Jagr is old.  How old?  He is probably a Hall of Famer based on his record in Pittsburgh alone: 806 games, 439 goals, 1,079 points.  But since then he has played in another 753 games in the NHL.  There are only 93 other active players in the league with that many career games played.  There are 244 players having dressed for games this season who were not born when Jagr took the ice for the first time in the NHL on October 5, 1990.  Oh, and about that October 5, 1990 debut.  It was against, who else, the Capitals.  Who else made their NHL debut in that game?  Peter Bondra.  He retired in 2007.  If Jagr appears in 74 games this season, he will rise to fourth all-time in games played after the age of 40 (Gordie Howe, Tim Horton, and Chris Chelios would still rank ahead of him).  Another full season, and there would be only Chelios ahead of him.

What is even more confounding is his production.  He leads the Panthers in goals (six, before Friday’s game), points (10), and shooting percentage.  If there is one concession to his age, it is that he averages only 15:16 in ice time per game.  And it is not a case of a big burst in one game; Jagr has points in six of the nine games in which he played going into Friday’s game with Boston.  He is still dangerous.  While Caps fans might think that he has been particularly hard on the Caps, that is more a product of his Pittsburgh years.  With 90 career points in 78 games (30-60-90), his career 1.15 points per game against Washington is just 16th among the 30 franchises in points per game.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson was born on October 6, 1990, the day after Jaromir Jagr made his debut in the NHL.  With all the attention paid to Alex Ovechkin’s five-game goal streak to start the season, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s hat trick/five-point game, the additions of T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams, and the emergence of John Carlson among the elite performers among NHL defensemen, it is easy to overlook a player line Johansson.

He is one of nine Caps at the moment who has recorded five or more points (2-3-5).  His plus-3 is third on the team (going into Friday’s game), and he is playing with his usual discipline with respect to the rule book (no penalty minutes).  Since he came into the league in 2010-2011, Johansson is one of four players who has appeared in more than 300 games, recorded more than 50 goals, and has been charged with fewer than 50 total penalty minutes (Loui Eriksson, Ryan O’Reilly, and Michael Grabner are the others).  He has been neither flashy nor extraordinarily prolific.  He has been solid, a fine complementary player on a team with a full complement of top-six forwards.  In 18 career games against Florida, Johansson is 3-8-11, plus-2.

In the end…

The Caps played a tough 60-minute game last night, now head on the road.  Even for elite athletes, this can be a difficult situation, especially against a team with a surprisingly effective offense such as Florida's (even if Jaromir Jagr is held out another game with a lower body injury).  Add in the fact that the Caps will be giving number one goalie Braden Holtby a breather, and this is a game that can be dangerous.  It will put a premium on playing smart, on playing efficiently.  The Caps have become just such a team from the early evidence this season. 

Capitals 3 - Panthers 2