“If we will be quiet and ready enough, we shall find
compensation in every disappointment.“
-- Henry David Thoreau
It has taken a while, but Evgeny Kuznetsov has taken his
place among the leaders in his 2010 draft class in a number of offensive
categories. Although he ranks just 23rd
in that class in NHL regular season games, he ranks tied for 17th in
goals (with Cam Fowler), ninth in assists, 13th in points, sixth in
plus-minus, and fifth in points per game among those of the 2010 draft class
with at least 150 games played.
And that is with Kuznetsov having completed just his second
full season with the Washington Capitals.
In 2015-2016 he finished ninth in the league in points (77) and fourth
in assists (57). His plus-27 tied
Nashville’s James Neal and Pittsburgh’s Olli Maatta for sixth in the league. Only three players (Patrick Kane, Artemi
Parnarin, and John Gaudreau) had more games with three or more points than the
eight recorded by Kuznetsov.
Things happened with Kuznetsov on the ice, although the
results might not have been proportionate to the play at times. In half of his ten-game splits, Kuznetsov
finished with ten or more points. Only twice
did his on-ice Corsi-for (shot attempts) differential at 5-on-5 dip below
plus-10, and that came early in the season (his second and third ten-game
splits).
However, if there was something ominous, something to
portend difficulties in the playoffs, it came late in the season when his
5-on-5 goal differential went into negative territory in each of his last two
ten-game splits (12 games in his last split).
There was also his plus-minus.
Only in the last ten-game split did Kuznetsov finish as a “minus” player
after being at or near the top of the league rankings for much of the
season. And it was in that last ten-game
split (12 games) that he recorded his only split without a goal. In fact, Kuznetsov went his last 20 games of
the regular season without a goal.
His scoring mattered.
The Caps were 14-2-1 in games in which he scored a goal, 37-5-5 in games
in which he recorded a point. And it was
not just lighting the red light, it was activity, at least in terms of higher
shot volumes. In 19 games in which he
recorded four or more shots, the Caps were 14-2-3.
Fearless’ Take… Even with the late-season problems,
Kuznetsov managed to grind out points.
Until he had a five-game streak without a point late in the season
(Games 71-75), he never went more than three games without a point. And those 77 points are nothing to sneeze
at. He became the 11th player
in Capitals history 24 years of age or younger to record a season of more than 75
points and the fifth since the 2004-2005 lockout (the others are the “Young
Guns” – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Alexander Semin).
Cheerless’ Take… Among
14 Caps forwards with at least 200 even-strength minutes in the regular season,
Kuznetsov had the third-best Corsi-for among Caps forwards at 5-on-5 (52.53
percent) and the third-best Corsi-for/Relative (plus-2.14). Sounds good, but maybe those were inflated
numbers. His score-adjusted numbers were not bad – 53.51
percent Corsi-for (third) and plus-2.20 Corsi-for/Relative (third), but among
13 forwards with at least 100 even strength minutes when the score was tied, he
had the second-worst Corsi-for (48.91 percent) and second-worst
Corsi-for/Relative (minus-2.49 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
Odd Kuznetsov Fact… Being an offensive player means having
the puck with which to set up plays or score goals. And having the puck is made easier by
starting plays with it instead of having to chase it down, and the brings us to
faceoffs. In 31 games in which Kuznetsov
had a faceoff winning percentage of better than 50 percent, the Caps were
25-4-2; they were 9-0-1 in games in which he had ten or more faceoff wins.
Game to Remember… October 23rd versus Edmonton
In late October the Caps were wrapping up their trip to
western Canada with a visit to Edmonton to face the Oilers after winning in
Calgary over the Flames and in Vancouver over the Canucks. Evgeny Kuznetsov had four points in the two
games, all on assists. It was mere
prelude to what would unfold in Edmonton.
It started when Kuznetsov finished a smart tic-tac-toe passing play with
Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie from the top of the Oiler crease past goalie
Anders Nilsson. The teams then engaged
in a back and forth that left the teams tied 3-3 approaching the mid-way point
of the second period. John Carlson
lifted the puck out of the defensive end into neutral ice where Kuznetsov settled
it, broke in on the Edmonton goal, and slid the puck through the pads of
Nilsson. Three minutes later he recorded
the primary assist on a goal by Andre Burakovsky, then recorded an assist two
minutes after that, skating with the puck for ten full seconds around the Oiler
net before setting up a play that Justin Williams finished. Kuznetsov capped his evening when he ripped a
shot over the left shoulder of relief goalie Cam Talbot on a Caps power play,
finishing the night with a hat trick and five points in the Caps’ 7-4 win. It was Kuznetsov’s first career hat trick and
his first five-point game (one of eight five-point games in the league this
season).
Game to Forget… March 20th versus Pittsburgh
The Caps’ last visit to Pittsburgh in the regular season did
not start poorly, but it ended poorly for them and for Evgeny Kuznetsov. The Penguins scored the game’s first goal
8:33 into the game and doubled their lead less than two minutes later. The Caps tied the game in the second period,
but the Pens grabbed the lead back less than a minutes after the Caps tied
it. Early in the third period Matt
Cullen broke behind Kuznetsov and in on goalie Braden Holtby. His snap shot was blocked, but not stopped by
Holtby, the puck crawling up and over his shoulder before dropping into the
net. Chris Kunitz scored less than four
minutes later, then Justin Schultz scored on a power play six minutes after
that. By the time the horn sounded, the
Penguins had a 6-2 win, and Kuznetsov had his game to forget – on ice for four
of the first five Penguin goals, one shot attempt, and a minus-4 in less than
14 minutes of ice time, his fourth lowest of the season.
Postseason: 12 games, 1-1-2, minus-4, 55.1 percent Corsi-for
at 5-on-5, plus-4.7 CF%/Relative
What a difference a year made. In 14 games in the 2015 postseason Kuznetsov
had two goals (including the series-clinching goal in Game 7 of the first round
against the New York Islanders) and seven points in 14 games, with a plus-4 to
go along with it. Not bad for his first
NHL postseason. One might have been
forgiven if that, plus being one of the top ten scorers in the league, would be
a springboard to a fine 2016 postseason.
However, there was that late-seaosn swoon to consider, and that was a
stronger indicator of postseason performance for Kuznetsov than his previous
postseason or his regular season overall might have suggested. He scored a goal in Game 3 against the
Philadelphia Flyers, and he had an assist in Game 2 of the second round series
against Pittsburgh, both points coming on power plays. That was it.
No even strength points, one goal on 39 shots overall. And the odd part of its was, the outcomes
(points) diverged so much from the outputs (Corsi, Corsi/Relative), which
looked so much better (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
In the end…
Evgeny Kuznetsov was – is, in fact – that productive second
line center the Caps have been looking for since long before the Caps went back
to red jerseys. He is one of only ten
centers in Caps history to record more than 75 points in a season and the only
one other than Nicklas Backstrom in the post 2004-2005 lockout era. He has a bright future ahead of him. But that second line center problem – one that
has haunted Caps’ postseason dreams for almost a decade – reared its ugly head
once more.
Playing well, at least insofar as the underlying numbers were concerned, just was not enough. Maybe there wasn’t enough “battle” in Kuznetsov’s game when goals became harder to come by, maybe it was part of a longer slump, or maybe it was just bad luck. But the fact is, Kuznetsov scored one goal in his last 32 games this season, regular season and playoffs. It was like earning an “A” grade for the first half of the semester, then squandering the fine grade with poor performance on the final. It is the kind of disappointment that can be a learning moment, that the postseason really is different, and that for a player with responsibilities as important as Kuznetsov’s it isn’t necessarily how you start, but how you finish.
Playing well, at least insofar as the underlying numbers were concerned, just was not enough. Maybe there wasn’t enough “battle” in Kuznetsov’s game when goals became harder to come by, maybe it was part of a longer slump, or maybe it was just bad luck. But the fact is, Kuznetsov scored one goal in his last 32 games this season, regular season and playoffs. It was like earning an “A” grade for the first half of the semester, then squandering the fine grade with poor performance on the final. It is the kind of disappointment that can be a learning moment, that the postseason really is different, and that for a player with responsibilities as important as Kuznetsov’s it isn’t necessarily how you start, but how you finish.
Grade: B-
Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America
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