The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Didn’t we just do this?
Well, yes. For the third time
since December 28th, the Washington Capitals will skate against the
Carolina Hurricanes. It will be the
first time in those three meetings and the first since October 5th
that the Caps played host to Carolina, the Caps losing to the ‘Canes, 3-2, in
overtime. Washington will be looking to
build off their last meeting, a 4-3 win in Carolina, to earn a season split in
what will be the last meeting of the teams this season, unless they should meet
for a second consecutive year in the playoffs.
Then and Now…
This will be the 178th meeting of these two teams
in the all-time series. The Caps will be
looking for their 100th win over the Hurricanes in both their
Hartford Whaler and Carolina Hurricane incarnations, the Caps currently with a
99-55-9 (14 ties) record overall and 53-26-5 (four ties) at home. Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 46-27-8 against
Carolina, 24-12-5 on home ice.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
Carolina has not exactly lit up the scoreboard since the
start of the new year. They have a total
of 14 goals in five games, a total shared by 11 players. Three skaters have two goals so far in
2020. Teuvo Teravainen is not a surprise
as one of them, and Warren Foegele is just a bit more surprising. The third skater with a pair of goals might
not get a lot of attention, though.
Lucas Wallmark has two goals since the calendar turned over, and he
already has equaled his career best of ten goals set last season. He was taken in the same 2014 Entry Draft as
Foegle, although he was selected in the fourth round (97th overall),
while Foegele was taken by the Hurricanes in the third round (67th
overall). It was part of a very productive
2014 draft for Carolina, who also took defenseman Haydn Fleury, seventh
overall, in the first round. Those three
players have dressed for a combined total of 380 games to date, Wallmark
leading them with 145 career games played so far.
Wallmark’s 2020 production so far extends a span of games in
which he has picked up his goal-scoring pace.
In his first 33 games this season he had just four goals, but he has six
in his last 12 games. He has been very
efficient in doing it, too, posting those six goals on just 23 shots, a 26.1
shooting percentage. His goal-scoring
has not be especially influential on results, the Hurricanes just 6-4-0 in the
ten games in which he scored a goal.
Odder still is the lack of team success with his increased offensive
engagement. In 18 games in which he
recorded two or more shots on goal, Carolina is 7-9-2. Wallmark is 1-0-1, minus-6, in nine career
games against Washington.
Three rookies through Saturday’s games had at least ten
goals and at least 25 points. Raise your
hand if you names Martin Necas among them (Buffalo’s Victor Olofsson and
Chicago’s Dominik Kubalik are the others).
Necas was taken with the 12th overall pick by the Hurricanes
in the 2017 Entry Draft and has slightly outperformed his draft slot to date,
ranking eighth in goals scored (11) and ninth in points (27). This year is more of “the third time is the
charm” for Necas, who played in one game for Carolina in 2017-2018 and seven
games last season, but still qualifies as a “rookie” under the league’s
qualification thresholds for games played and age.
Necas has been hot of late, going 4-5-9, plus-3, in his last
ten games, an output that includes a four-point game (2-2-4) in an 8-6 loss to
Toronto on December 23rd. His
has been the value of supplemental scoring for the Hurricanes so far, that two-goal
game against the Maple Leafs being the only time Carolina lost so far when
Necas scored a goal (8-1-0). They are
13-7-1 in the 21 games in which he has a point.
In three career games against the Caps, Necas is 1-1-2, even.
He is not likely to get the start on Monday, but a few words
about goalie James Reimer. On Saturday
he became the fifth goalie in team history to pitch a shutout when facing 40 or
more shots (Cam Ward was the only one of the five to do it more than once –
four times). He stopped all 41 shots he
faced in Carolina’s 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings. He has been effective in an associate role (“backup”
does not seem to completely convey his role), especially of late. In his first seven appearances for the
Hurricanes this season he stopped just 182 of 202 shots (a .901 save percentage)
while posting a 2-4-0 (one no-decision) record.
In his last 11 appearances, though, he stopped 292 of 315 shots (.927
save percentage) and posted a record of 8-2-0 (one no-decision). He has been more or less the designated road
goalie for the club, 14 of his 18 appearances to date coming in road
games. In 12 career games against
Washington, Reimer is 5-4-2 (one no-decision), 2.37, .930, with one shutout.
1. Carolina has the
best net penalty kill (accounting for shorthanded goals scored) on the road
this season: 89.4 percent.
2. Among Eastern
Conference teams, only Toronto has scored more first period goals on the road
this season (30) than Carolina (23, tied with Boston and Tampa Bay).
3. The Hurricanes
have only one road win this season when trailing after the first period (1-6-0). They also have only one win when trailing
after two periods on the road (1-5-0).
4. Carolina’s winning
percentage when scoring first in road games (.900/9-1-0) is second only to
Washington (.917/11-1-0).
5. The Hurricanes have an odd shots fact. In eight road games in which they allowed
fewer than 30 shots on goal, their record is just 2-5-1.
1. It is difficult to
keep the Caps from at least getting shots to the net at home. In 22 home games they have been held under 30
shots only four times. The Caps are
3-1-0 in those games.
2. An indicator this
game could be a success for the Caps?
Goals allowed in the first period.
In nine games in which the Caps blanked an opponent on home ice in the
first period, they are 6-1-2.
3. Only four teams
have allowed fewer third period goals on home ice than the Caps (18): Pittsburgh
(16), Carolina (15), St. Louis (11), and Columbus (11).
4. The Caps have six
goals scored at 6-on-5 on home ice this season but only three goals scored at
5-on-6.
5. Washington takes a
lot of penalties on home ice, their 3.93 penalties taken per 60 minutes ranking
fourth in the league. But they draw a
lot, too, the 3.84 penalties drawn per 60 minutes on home ice leaving them with
a net of minus-0.09 penalties per 60 minutes at home.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Carolina: Justin Williams
Well, he’s back. But
will Justin Williams dress for the first time this season when the Hurricanes
visit Washington? Hard to say.
Williams re-signed with the Hurricanes last week, a one-year deal over the rest
of the season that carries a base salary of $700,000 aand the potential to earn
another $1.3 million in bonuses. But if
it seems Williams has been a Hurricane forever, it just seems that way. One might think he ranks higher on the
franchise all-time lists than he does.
For instance, with 429 games played as a Hurricane, Williams ranks 27th
(that’s five fewer than former Caps player and assistant coach Dean Evason, who
played in 434 games for Carolina). His
120 goals rank 14th on the franchise list, while his 305 points rank
16th. He has 36 career power
play goals for the club, which ranks 16th, while his 19 game-winning
goals is tied for 12th.
Williams, who is returning to the ice after taking a break
to start the season, will be counted on to add some middle-six punch to the
forward lines and some veteran influence on a lineup that includes nine skaters
who have dressed this season of age 25 or younger. As it is, Williams will be the oldest member
of the team by seven years over Jordan Staal, next in line among active
Hurricanes, among skaters. Williams is
15-25-40, plus-9, in 51 career games against Washington.
Washington: Dmitry Orlov
John Carlson started the season on fire in the offensive end
for the Caps, and he has barely cooled.
But since Thanksgiving, Dmitry Orlov has had his contributions as
well. Orlov is tied for second in goals
among Caps defensemen (two, with Radko Gudas) since Thanksgiving, both of them
being game-winners. His 13 points over
that stretch trail only Carlson, and his plus-10 is tops on the team in that
span. He has done it averaging more than
22 minutes per game, second only to Carlson’s 24:16, and no defenseman has
logged as many even strength minutes as Orlov in that period (390).
The Caps have been beneficiaries of Orlov’s production this
season, going 14-5-0 when he recorded at least one point, and they are 14-5-3
in the 22 games in which he logged 22:30 or more in ice time. Only once in his
last 20 games since Thanksgiving has he gone consecutive games without a point,
and only three times did he skate less than 20 minutes. Orlov is 4-7-11, plus-11 (that plus-minus
rating tied for best against any single opponent with Ottawa) in 26 career games
against Carolina.
In the end…
We are past the Caps being able to intimidate the
Hurricanes, who can counter the Caps depth of skill with speed and dedication
to heavy forechecking pressure. The Caps
have not been able to find a consistent way to counter this resistance, and
they might have to find a way to do just that if the Caps are not only to win
this game but find a way past Carolina in the postseason, should they
meet. It means the stars have to step up
and not just generate chances, but convert them when they have the
opportunity. There are no mysteries
here, but the veteran edge still goes to Washington.
Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 3
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