Record: 2-2-0
It has been said that it is not how you start, but how you
finish. The Caps started the week well
enough with a pair of wins, but they did it against teams that finished the
week in the bottom third in the league in standings points, San Jose with 46
points (24th) and Ottawa with 39 (29th). The two losses to end the week, to
Philadelphia and New Jersey, extended a poor record of late against
Metropolitan Division opponents.
Those losses brought the Caps’ record to 3-7-0 against
division rivals over their last ten contests, 1-3-0 on home ice, the lone win
coming in overtime on December 27th against Columbus. The Caps have not beaten a Metropolitan
Division rival on home ice in regulation since they beat the New York Rangers,
5-2, on October 18th. The
Caps closed the week out of the top spot in the league standings for the first
time since December 3rd, when they were second to the Boston Bruins
by tiebreakers (even in standings points with Boston, but with the Bruins
having a better points percentage). The
Caps ended the week with the same number of points (65) and same points
percentage (.707) as Boston and St. Louis, but both the Bruins and the Blues
have more wins in regulation, the next tiebreaker.
Offense: 3.50/game (season: 3.50/5th)
In some respects, the Caps were the Caps that fans have seen
all season on offense, while in other respects there were gaps in Week 15. There were Jakub Vrana and T.J. Oshie, two
vital elements of the Caps’ attack, posting four and three goals, respectively
for the week, accounting for half of the Caps’ total. Lars Eller, who has been quite productive of
late in a variety of ways, scoring a pair of goals, and Alex Ovechkin getting a
pair of goals of his own to tie Teemu Selanne for 11th place on the
all-time NHL goal scoring list (684 goals apiece). Nicklas Backstrom, Radko Gudas, and Nic Dowd
rounded out the goal scorers.
Missing, however, were Tom Wilson and Evgeny Kuznetsov among
the forwards. Wilson has been in a dry
spell of late, his current streak of games without a goal up to five. He has one goal in his last 11 games and two
in his last 15. Kuznetsov has been more
streaky. He is without a goal in four
games after posting four in three games.
Before that he had one goal in 12 games.
There was balance in the points, though. Of the 18 skaters to dress in Week 15, 16 of
them had points, and the distribution was what was noticeable. Vrana led the team with five points, but
three players had four (Oshie, Backstrom, and John Carlson), while another four
players had three points (Eller, Wilson, Kuznetsov, and Michal Kempny). Garnet Hathaway and Nick Jensen were the only
players to be blanked on the score sheet for the week. For Jensen, the drought is severe. He is now up to 38 consecutive games without
a point. Hathaway’s dry spell is not as
severe, but he is up to six games without a point.
Defense: 3.25/game (season: 2.96/12th)
The Caps held all four opponents in Week 15 to fewer than 30
shots, extending an impressive amount of stinginess when it comes to allowing
shots. Washington has allowed fewer than
30 shots in 12 of their last 13 games through Week 15, the only club to top
that threshold being the Carolina Hurricanes, who logged 41 shots on goal in a
4-3 loss to the Caps on January 3rd. Since Thanksgiving, no team in
the league has been stingier than the Caps in allowing shots, their 27.4 shots
allowed per game being fewest in the league over that span.
Washington was not quite as impressive on the defensive side
of 5-on-5 shot attempts, but were decent nonetheless. They allowed 176 shot attempts at fives,
fifth fewest among the ten teams to play in four games this week. It is part of an extended good run in this
area for the Caps, whose 815 shot attempts at fives overall are the
third-fewest in the league since Thanksgiving.
It has helped contribute to a plus-110 shot attempt differential over
that period, the sixth-best differential in the league.
Goaltending: 2.75 / .893 (season: 2.76 / .906)
There is a fair amount to unpack in this category in Week
15. First, there is the continued fine
play on the part of Ilya Samsonov, who stopped 26 of 27 shots in his lone
appearance for the week, beating Ottawa, 6-1.
It brought his record over his last eight appearances to 7-0-0 (one
no-decision), 1.83, .932. He finished
the week second in the league among rookie goaltenders in wins with 12 (New
Jersey’s MacKenzie Blackwood has (14), second in goals against average with
2.24 (Florida’s Chris Driedger has a 2.16 GAA), and fifth in save percentage
(.921).
Then there was Braden Holtby, who had a real “donut” of a
week. He stopped 31 of 34 first period
shots in three games for a respectable .912 save percentage. He was perfect in his three third periods,
stopping all 17 shots he faced. But oh,
those second periods. He allowed at
least one goal in each of the three second periods he played and stopped only
16 of 23 shots (.696 save percentage).
Not every goal is the goalie’s fault, but, like pitchers in baseball
with earned run average, it is his goals against average and save percentage
that gets the record, and he is the one who records the wins and the
losses. Whether it is his play, the play
of the team in front of him, or a combination of the two, Holtby is in a dark
place at the moment. In his last ten
appearances, he is 3-7-0, 3.59, .870, and he has allowed a shorthanded goal in
two straight games and three of his last five contests. Since Thanksgiving, 40 goalies have logged at
least 500 minutes. Of that group, Holtby
ranks 34th in goals against average (3.27) and dead last in save
percentage (.882).
Power Play: 1-for-12/8.3 percent (season: 21.0 percent/12th)
Week 15 was another in a continuing series of struggling
weeks for the Caps, ending the week 8-for-56 in their last six weeks covering
18 games. Worse, in Week 15 the Caps had
a net power play of -8.3 percent, their one power play goal offset by two
shorthanded goals allowed. They were the
only team in the league to allow two shorthanded goals this week and the only
team to finish in negative territory in net power play. The Caps changed things up a bit by spreading
the power play time out as the week wore on.
When the week ended, seven forwards averaged more than two minutes per
game in power play ice time, Jakub Vrana (2:19 per game) and Lars Eller (2:16)
being somewhat new to this level of participation.
It was a lackluster power play at the next level as
well. The Caps managed only 14 shots on
goal in 21:28 of power play ice time, Alex Ovechkin accounting for five of them,
Jakub Vrana for another three (and the only goal). Put it all together, and that 8-for-56 power
play (14.3 percent) is the second-worst power play in the league (Columbus:
12.5 percent).
Penalty Killing: 6-for-8/75.0 percent (season: 83.8 percent/4th)
The Caps matched their penalty killing performance in Week
14 with a 6-for-8 week. In the
glass-half-full category, the Caps had only those eight shorthanded situations
to face in four games. On the other
hand, the four teams they faced in Week 15 were among the worst power play
teams in the league, ranking 19th (Philadelphia), 25th
(San Jose), 30th (New Jersey), and 31st (Ottawa) at week’s
end.
But back to the first hand, the good part. The Caps did allow San Jose two power play
goals on their first two chances in the first game of the week, but here is the
really good part. The Caps not only
shutout opponents on the power play the rest of the week (6-for-6), but they shut
them out on shots. San Jose did not
record one on either of their last two power play chances in the opening game
of the week, and the Caps ran the table in the other three games, denying any
of the three opponents so much as a single shot on goal in eight shorthanded
minutes of play. If there was one thing
in this week to build on, the penalty kill to finish the week might have been
it.
Faceoffs: 99-for-228/43.4 percent (season: 48.9 percent/22nd)
The Caps just are not a very good faceoff team. They are inconsistent at best. In four games this week they were over 50
percent only against San Jose (31-for-58/53.4 percent) and under 45 percent in
the other three games. They lost all
three zones for the week, topping 45 percent only in the offensive end
(40-for-88/45.5 percent). Since
Thanksgiving, the Caps have the fifth-worst faceoff performance in the league
(47.2 percent) and second-worst in the new year (42.3 percent). Faceoff woes might be contributing to poor
power play performance. Their 34.8
percent wins on power plays in the first five games of the new year is worst in
the league, and that’s too much time chasing down pucks when they could be
setting up their attack.
Individually, Nicklas Backstrom (32-for-60/53.3 percent) and
Lars Eller (22-for-41/53.7 percent) were the only Caps taking at least ten
draws to finish over 50 percent for the week.
No Capital, regardless of the number of draws taken, finished at 50
percent or better in the defensive zone.
Goals by Period:
Week 15 was a week in which the Caps suffered from poor
starts, posting a negative goal differential in both the first and second
periods of games. Their third periods
look better for the furious last-minute comeback against San Jose in which they
scored a pair of goals, a comeback that qualifies as historic.
The two first period goals the Caps scored for the week are
the first two goals they have recorded in the opening periods of the new year
to date, tied with Columbus for fewest in the league. And even that paltry production has not
helped. The Caps have yet to take a lead
into the first intermission through five games in January. The Caps have not held a lead at the first
intermission since they took a 2-1 lead after 20 minutes in their 6-3 win over New
Jersey on December 20th. They
have not taken a lead into the first intermission on home ice since
Thanksgiving, a streak that is now at ten home games.
Year-over-Year:
The Caps continue to be better in most respects than last
year’s team at a similar point in the schedule, but the differences are
narrowing. The best thing that might be
said is that this club is not merely better than last year’s in terms of wins,
but it is only the third team in franchise history to post 30 or more wins in
their first 46 games. The 206-2017 club
had 31 wins in 46 games, while the 2015-2016 team had 35 wins it its first 46
games.
The flip side of that is that even with the recent mediocre
record, this year’s Caps team has the third-fewest losses in regulation through
46 games (11) in team history, the 2016-2017 team having nine and the 2015-2016
team having eight. The differential
statistics – goals for and against, shots for and against, and 5-on-5 shot
attempts for and against – continue to favor this year’s team
significantly. One would think, or at
least hope, that a club as skilled as this will shake off the doldrums if the
underlying numbers such as these continue to point in a positive direction.
In the end…
Overall, it was quite a disappointing week. The Caps were fortunate, if not outright
lucky, to get out of it with a .500 record.
Coming back from two goals down in the last minute of a game is not a
formula one can count on, and while the win over Ottawa and the loss to
Philadelphia (a superb home team) could be in the category of “expected,” the
loss to the Devils to end the week was arguably the Caps worst game – effort-wise
and performance-wise – of the season.
The Caps have much work to do…get the power play untracked, have better
starts to games, improve their performance on home ice, get Braden Holtby back
on his game. With three division rivals
on the schedule in Week 16, their last action before their bye/All-Star Game
break, sooner rather than later for those improvements is the prescription.
Three Stars:
- First Star: Jakub Vrana (4-1-5, plus-1, 14 shots on goal, 18 shot attempts, first power play goal of the season, reached 20 goals for second consecutive season)
- Second Star: Radko Gudas (1-1-2, plus-3 (tied for team lead), one game-winning goal, 12 shots on goal (led all defensemen), 12 hits (led all defensemen))
- Third Star: Ilya Samsonov (1-0-0, 1.00, .963)
Captain rates the week…
One pupper
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