The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
After hosting the New Jersey Devils in Washington last Thursday and Friday, the Caps head to Newark to face the Devils at Prudential Center on Friday and Sunday in a two-game set that will end the season series between the teams. Washington has won all six games to date against the Devils.
Goals have been hard to come by for the Devils in this series. They average 2.33 goals per game in the six games played to date, and in the last one they were blanked by Ilya Samsonov, 4-0. Twelve Devils have goals in the series to date, but only Yegor Sharangovich and Miles Wood have two. The 22-year old Sharangovich is having a good rookie season for New Jersey, tied for sixth in goals among rookies (seven) and tied for 13th in points in that group (12). On the other side, though, he is tied for a team-worst minus-5 rating in his five games against the Caps and has been on ice for eight even strength goals against, tied for most on the team. Nevertheless, his season might be put in the win column for the Devils, who took him in the fifth round of the 2018 Entry Draft (141st overall). He is one of only three players taken in the fifth round or later in that draft to have appeared in at least one NHL game (Veini Vehvilainen and John Leonard being the others). Sherangovich is 2-0-2, minus-5, in five games played against the Caps this season and for his career.
Miles Wood is another later round draft pick who has worked out for the Devils. Taken in the fourth round of the 2013 Entry Draft (100th overall), Wood is in his sixth season with New Jersey. While he has become a reliable double-digit goa scorer, posting at least ten goals in each of the last four seasons (including 11 this season to date), the number than jumps off the page on his resume is penalty minutes. In those six seasons, Wood has 339 penalty minutes in 302 games. Over those six seasons, Wood ranks tied for eighth among 546 players appearing in at least 200 games in penalties taken per 60 minutes (1.83). He has whittled that penalty minute total down this season, though. After starting the season with nine minutes in his first two games, Wood has only 12 penalty minutes in 32 games since. Within the rules, he is having a career best season in goals per game (0.32) and points per game (0.44). Wood is 2-1-3, even, in six games against the Caps this season and 6-2-8, minus-6, in 19 career games against Washington.
Only one Devils defenseman has a goal against the Caps this season. Not P.K. Subban, not Calder contender Ty Smith. It is Damon Severson. That goal tied the game late in the third period, enabling the Devils to earn a standings point in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Caps on March 9th (the only standings point the Devils have earned against the Caps this season). Severson has been with the Devils for only seven seasons, but with 464 games played for New Jersey he is within ten games of Mike Kitchen for tenth place in games played by a defenseman for the Devils. He is not generally considered an offensive defenseman, but he is eighth among defensemen in goals scored for the club over his career (39), and five of those were game-winners (tied for seventh among Devils’ defensemen all-time). His 175 points as a Devil also rank him eighth on the all-time franchise list among defensemen. Severson is 1-2-3, minus-1, in six games against the Caps this season, 4-7-11, minus-14, in 27 career games against Washington.
2. The Devils’ 2.26 goals per game over those 23 games is the fourth-worst scoring offense over that span.
3. New Jersey’s 13.4 percent power play over those same 23 games is third worst in the league (Anaheim/13.0 percent; Minnesota/12.7 percent).
4. The Devils are one of only five teams since February 20th with a losing record by winning percentage when scoring first (5-6-1/.417)). Dallas (5-4-2/.455), St. Louis (2-0-3/.400), Anaheim (3-3-3/.333), and Buffalo (3-4-2/.333) are the others.
5. New Jersey is the only team over that span without a win by three or more goals.
2. Over those 20 games, the Caps are averaging only 27.0 shots per game, tied with Buffalo for third fewest in the league (New York Rangers/26.8; Arizona/25.1).
3. By the same token, only three teams have allowed fewer shots on goal than the Caps (26.8) – Dallas (26.5), Philadelphia (26.3), and Colorado (24.4) are the others.
4. Over those 20 games, the Caps allowed as many third period goals (25) as they allowed in the first and second periods combined (25; 12 in the first periods, 13 in the second periods).
5. Scoring first mattered to the Caps over that recent 20-game stretch. Their 9-1-0 record when doing so is the third-best winning percentage over that span (.900). Only Vegas (11-1-0/.917) and Edmonton (7-0-0/1.000) were better.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New Jersey: Jack Hughes
Washington has Alex Ovechkin, Pittsburgh has Sidney Crosby, Edmonton has Connor McDavid. A signature player does not guarantee team success (see: “Connor McDavid”), but a lot of successful teams have them. For the time being that player for the New Jersey Devils is Jack Hughes. He was the prize of the 2019 Entry Draft, taken first overall by the Devils, and his is the early leader in his draft class in games played (95), assists (23), and points (37). His 14 career goals to date are one behind the New York Rangers Kaapo Kakko (15) in that draft cohort.
Hughes is already establishing himself as a player who matters, whose contributions are part of new Jersey’s success. Over his two seasons in the NHHL so far, the Devils are 15-10-4 when Hughes registers at least one point, 24-30-12 when he does not, although that points-wins relationship is a bit depressed this season with New Jersey’s 5-5-2 record when he is on the score sheet. He does seem to have hit a rut lately, though. While he was 4-8-12, plus-2, in his first 16 games this season, he is 3-1-4, minus-1, in his last 18 games, over which the Devils are 6-9-3. Hughes is 1-1-2, minus-4, in six games against the Caps this season, 1-1-2, minus-4, in nine career games against Washington.
Washington: John Carlson
He was born in Natick, Massachusetts, but a good portion of his formative years in hockey were spent in New Jersey, where his family moved when he was five years old. His performance against the Devils over his career looks more like punishment than appreciation of the years spent there. He has more career points against the Devils (35) than he has against any other NHL team, and his plus-33 rating is also higher than he has posted against any other team (and it’s not close, next highest is plus-17 against Tampa Bay). No active defenseman in the NHL has more career points against the Devils than Carlson (Zdeno Chara is second with 25), and his plus-33 career rating against New Jersey is best by 13 points among active defensemen (Ryan McDonagh is plus-20). No active defenseman had most game-winning goals against New Jersey than Carlson (three; tied with Dmitry Kulikov).
Not that Carlson hasn’t been wreaking havoc on opponents’ defenses in general. Since 2014-2015, Carlson ranks ninth in goals (79), third in assists (294) and points (373), fourth in points per game (0.78), fifth in even strength goals (58), fourth in even strength points (223), tied for fourth in power play points (147, with Victor Hedman), and tied for first in game-winning goals (22, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brent Burns).
Carlson has been consistent in his scoring so far this season, going with out a point in three consecutive games only twice. If one breaks his production down by his tens, he was 4-7-11, minus-3, in his first ten games; 1-7-8, minus-4, in Games 11-20; 1-6-7, plus-4, in his next ten games; and he is 1-2-3, minus-2, in his last five games. Only once this season did he log less than 20 minutes in ice time, that being in a 6-0 win over Buffalo on March 15th in which he skated 19:51. Carlson is 1-5-6, plus-6, in six games against the Devils this season and 6-29-35, plus-33, in 45 career games against New Jersey.
In the end…
Yes, the Caps have six wins in six tries against the Devils this season. But on the other hand, four of those wins were by one goal, one of them in overtime. The odd thing about the series, considering the venue in which it will be played, is that New Jersey scored fewer goals in the two games on home ice (two in each) than in all but one game in Washington. Except for the shutout in their last visit to Capital One Arena, the Devils scored at least three goals in the other three games. If the Caps can hold the Devils to two goals and not fall prey to their recent trend of coughing up multi-goal leads, they should sweep this two-game set and the season series.
Capitals 4 – Devils 2
Capitals 5 – Devils 2
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