The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The suddenly streaking Washington Capitals head back to the ice on Tuesday night to close their two-game road trip with a meeting at United Center against the Chicago Blackhawks. Washington will be facing the Blackhawks looking to extend their season-high four game winning streak to a fifth game, while the Blackhawks will be trying to squirm out from under a three-game losing streak that has left them with the second-worst record in the league.
The three-game losing streak for Chicago does not do justice to the depth of the rut in which they find themselves. The Blackhawks started the season in promising fashion, going 4-2-0 in their first six games. But that start was followed by a four-game losing streak (0-2-2). They split their next four games (2-1-1), but then they suffered an eight-game losing streak (0-7-1). A win to end that streak was then followed by the three-game losing streak on which they find themselves, a record of 3-13-4 following that 4-2-0 start.
Over that 3-13-4 slide, Chicago is last in the league in scoring offense (2.10 goals per game). Eighteen of 23 skaters to dress over that period have at least one goal, but none have more than six. That would be the number that co-leaders Max Domi and Taylor Raddysh recorded over that 20-game span. An eight-year veteran playing for his fifth NHL team, Domi signed a one-year/$3.0 million contract with the Blackhawks as an unrestricted free agent last July. Given the team’s circumstances, it seems to be a lock that before the end of the season, Domi will be playing for his sixth NHL team in the event the Blackhawks trade him for futures.
In the meantime, Domi is scoring goals at a paced (a team-leading nine in 26 games) that would have him challenge his career high of 28 goals in 82 games with Montreal in 2018-2019. Six of those nine goals to date have come on power plays, also a team high. The Blackhawks are not a very good team when he scores (3-4-0 when he recorded at least one goal, 5-7-1 when he posted at least one point), but they are awful when he does not (4-11-4 when he failed to score a goal, 2-9-3 when he did not post a point). One wonders if he can sustain the goal-scoring pace he has had through the first third of the season. He is shooting 17.0 percent, a career high by a considerable amount (he shot 13.8 percent in 2018-2019 when he had 28 goals) and much higher than the 10.1 career shooting percentage he had coming into this season. Then there is his orneriness. Domi is tied for the team lead in penalty minutes and since he came into the league in 2015-2016, he is one of only five forwards with at least 300 points and at least 450 penalty minutes (333/463). The others are Evander Kane (336/679), Brad Marchand (588/567), Nazem Kadri (381/469), and Matthew Tkachuk (419/466), pretty much a who’s who of nasty players with skill. Domi is 1-11-12, plus-3, in 16 career games against Washington.
Taylor Raddysh played his 100th NHL game in Chicago’s last contest, scoring the Blackhawks’ only goal in a 3-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets last Friday. A second-round draft pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2016, Raddysh played in 53 games with the Lightning last season as a rookie before he was traded to Chicago with a first-round draft pick in 2023, a first-round draft pick in 2024, and Boris Katchouk to the Chicago Blackhawks for a fourth-round draft pick in 2022, a fourth-round draft pick in 2024, and Brandon Hagel. In 21 games with Chicago to wrap up the season he was 6-4-10, minus-4, while averaging 15:34 in ice time per game. In 26 games so far this season he already has six goals and 11 points, with his ice time up a few ticks (15:53 per game). That 21.6 shooting percentage sticks out as something he might not be able to sustain as the season wears, on, though.
Raddysh started this season on an up note, going 3-3-6, plus-2, over his first eight games, but since then he is 5-0-5, minus-10, in 18 games. Raddysh’s performance to date is another instance of production having a weak link with success. Chicago is 3-2-3 in the eight games in which he scored a goal, and the Blackhawks are 4-3-3 in the ten games in which he had points. But as with Domi, when he has not produced, the team results have been awful – 4-13-1 in the 18 games in which he did not score a goal and 3-12-1 in the 16 games in which he did not record a point. Heavy ice time loads – even middling ice time loads – have not been kind to him or the Blackhawks. In 21 games in which Haddysh skated 14:51 or more, Chicago is 2-15-4, while the Blackhawks are undefeated when he skated less than 14:51 (5-0-0). Haddysh is 0-1-1, even, in his only appearance to date against the Caps.
In 26 games to date, the Blackhawks have used four goaltenders – Arvid Soderblom (11 starts, 2-8-2, 3.18, .906), Petr Mrazek (nine starts, 2-5-1, 4.05, .884), Alex Staylock (six starts, 3-2-1, 2.93, .914), and Dylan Wells (no starts/one appearance, 0-0-0, 3.00, .923). A fifth goalie – Jaxson Stauber – was called up when Mrazek was placed on the injured list with a groin injury (he was reactivated on Monday, and Stauber was returned to the Rockford IceHogs in the AHL). If he is fully recovered from his injury, Mrazek facing the Caps would make sense, given his experience against them (14 career appearances; Soderblom, Stalock, and Wells have combined for two career appearances against Washington).
Mrazek is in his first year with Chicago after he was traded last July by the Toronto Maple Leafs with a first-round draft pick in 2022 for a second-round draft pick in 2022. It is his fifth team in 11 NHL seasons, and it has not gone very well. His 4.05 goals against average to date is the worst of his career, and his .884 save percentage also ranks as his worst. Mrazek has sagged under the weight of high shot volumes, facing 35 or more shots on goal five times in nine appearances and only once facing fewer than 30 in which he played a full game. In four of those games in which he faced 35 or more shots, he allowed five or more goals. Of significance for this game, he has three appearances on home ice so far this season and has yet to post a win (0-2-0, one no-decision, 4.90, .862). His even strength save percentage on home ice is terrible (.859), ranking 63rd among 65 goalies to appear in at least three games on home ice. In 14 career appearances against the Caps, Mrazek is 5-7-2, 2.74, .910, with one shutout.
2. The Blackhawks are averaging 2.71 goals per game on home ice so far, 29th in the league in scoring offense on home ice.
3. Chicago does lead the league in faceoff winning percentage on home ice (56.9 percent).
4. The Blackhawks scored first in three of 14 home games so far; no team has scored first fewer times (they are tied with Arizona, Montreal, and Philadelphia). The Blackhawks are 2-0-1 in those three games.
5. Chicago struggles with good starts on home ice; their first period goal differential is minus-8 (seven goals scored, 15 allowed).
1. When Marcus Johansson scored on a penalty shot in the 5-2 win over Winnipeg on Sunday night, it was the sixth penalty shot goal scored in the league this season but only the third scored on the road. Mark Stone and Brad Marchand have the other goals.
2. John Carlson is second in the league in blocked shots in road games (42); Vegas’ Alec Martinez has 55.
3. Alex Ovechkin and Jake Guentzel are tied for the league lead with four empty net goals on the road.
4. No player in the league has hit more iron on shot attempts in road games the Ovechkin (four misses hitting posts or crossbars).
5. Dylan Strome is tied for third in the league in primary assists on power play goals on the road (four).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Chicago: Patrick Kane
Will the second-leading point getter in Chicago Blackhawks’ history be a Blackhawk when the curtain comes down on the regular season? Kane, who has 1,200 career points as a Blackhawk (Stan Mikita had 1,467), seems to be at least open to the idea of moving on from the shores of Lake Michigan, although asking for a trade appears, at least for the moment, a step too far. Colorado and the New York Rangers are mentioned as landing places for the 16-year veteran. Kane is in the walk year of an eight-year/$84.0 million contract, which narrows the potential population of teams to which he might go, even if the Blackhawks retain salary. Kane also has a no-movement clause in his contract, which gives the player considerable leverage in going to a club to his liking.
On the other hand, what makes Kane an attractive target is that at age 34, he does not seem to be slowing down. Last season he posted 92 points in 78 games, the fourth consecutive season in which he averaged more than a point per game. While he is off that pace so far this season, he does have 20 points in 26 games with a lot of time to pursue a fifth consecutive season. If there has been an area of concern, it is his goal scoring. He has only four in 26 games, and his 4.5 shooting percentage is the worst of his career to date by a large margin (he shot 7.9 percent in 56 games in 2020-2021). Kane has a solid run to end November and start December, going 2-8-10 in ten games, but he goes into the game against the Caps with a three-game streak without a point, his longest such streak since a three-game streak in early November. Kane is 7-11-18, minus-9, in 19 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Anthony Mantha
One gets the feeling that Anthony Mantha is at the start of a lengthy scoring run, having gone 1-3-4 in his last three games, tying his longest points streak of the season. It matters, for the Caps and Mantha’s general well-being. Washington is 7-5-0 in the 12 games in which Mantha has points this season, and Mantha has plus ratings nine of the 12 games, even in one other.
But have we seen this “coming attractions” before with Mantha, only to see his production dry up? Here might be a key fact to watch. Those two three-game points streaks are the only two instances this season in which he recorded points in consecutive games. And getting more ice time has not been a good thing for Mantha or the Caps, either. In seven games in which he skated at least 16 minutes, the Caps are 1-5-1, and he has just two points in those games (a goal and an assist) along with a minus-5 rating.
Offensive engagement does not seem to help much, either. In 16 games in which he recorded two or more shots on goal, the Caps are 8-7-1, even though he is 5-6-11, minus-2. His role seems to be changing somewhat. Over his first 22 games he averaged 15:06 in ice time per game, a reflection of getting at least some scoring line responsibility. But over his last eight games he is averaging only 13:09 per game, getting more third line minutes. And this arrangement seems a bit more conducive to Caps success, the team going 5-2-1 over those eight games. For this game, the thing to watch might be his shooting. Mantha is shooting 21.7 percent at Capital One Arena in 13 games, but he is shooting just 6.5 percent in 17 road games so far. He is 2-5-7, minus-7, in 12 career games against Chicago.
In the end…
There is no way that the Caps should lose this game – on paper. On the other hand, the Caps are 4-6-1 in their last 11 games in Chicago dating back to March 2008, and they have lost in three of their last four visits to Chicago (1-2-1), allowing 23 goals in the process. The Caps had better be on the toes and must be sharp early at both ends of the rink, because the Hawks on ice have played much better against the Caps than the “paper” would suggest.
Capitals 4 – Blackhawks 2
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