The Tough Decisions Are Arriving . . . Sooner Than We Expected?

In his fine roundup to last night’s game at Japer’s Rink, JP makes an important point:

“ . . . the difference between [the Caps and the Lightning] - $14 million. Without question, the $14m difference in payroll between the squads was the difference tonight. A defenseman (or two), a second-line center or winger - it wouldn't have taken much for this to have been a Caps win rather than a loss. Now that's two straight one-goal losses to Tampa. Three one-goal losses to Atlanta. Eleven one-goal losses on the year. These points get harder and harder to give up knowing that the Caps are simultaneously so close and yet so far away.”

Juxtapose this with what Tarik El-Bashir posted on December 28th in his “Capital Insider” blog in the aftermath of losses to Buffalo and Montreal:

“The Capitals will tell you that they didn't come ready to play against Buffalo. That a couple of defensive zone breakdowns led to Montreal's first two goals.

“And they are right.

“But take a step back and look at the bigger picture. What I saw was two $43 million dollar teams show the Capitals exactly how much an extra $13 million in salaries buys these days.”

In between, there was this from The Man, himself, in his January 9th “Owner’s Corner” column . . .

“Mention of the playoffs leads people to ask if we’re going to “make a move” – as if it were as simple as crossing something off a shopping list. That’s not to dismiss the importance of improving your team when you have the opportunity, and we will do that – if it’s the right opportunity. I know you’ve heard me say this before, but we won’t do it just for the sake of ‘making a move,’ or if it will unduly cost the franchise down the road.

“Could we make a trade? Of course. One of the reasons we stockpiled draft picks and focused on our farm system was to create value. And we’ve been strategic in our approach to the salary cap so that we are not handicapped in that regard, as some other teams are. Simply having room under the cap, however, is not reason to spend it.

“It was written recently, after we lost back-to-back games, that ‘You Get What You Pay For.’ In the NHL nothing could be further from the truth. I don’t want to pick on individual teams, but a quick glance at the standings will prove the fallacy of that headline. Some of the highest payroll teams occupy the bottom of the standings. Trust me, if anyone knows that you don’t always get what you pay for in this business, it’s me.

“There are strategic reasons why we need to manage our payroll now too. In 2003-04 I promised you that we would build a team that you could watch grow. But we aren’t going to be hockey’s Montreal Expos, developing stars to make their marks with other teams. To keep the Ovechkins, Semins, Backstroms and Greens into the prime of their careers, we will need to have flexibility under the salary cap. It’s an important fact of life in the ‘new NHL,’ especially with players eligible for free agency at younger ages.”

The discussion suggests that the Caps are arriving at a critical juncture in their rebuild. Given the dire predictions at the start of the year, one would have to conclude that the Caps are ahead of schedule in their return to competitiveness. You would not have thought when the season started that the Caps would be buyers in any trading market this year.

But now? That’s a hard question to answer. The arguments . . .

As JP points out, the Caps have 11 one-goal losses this year, five of them to Atlanta and Tampa Bay, combined. If the Caps managed to steal an additional point in five of those contests – less than half – they’d be seventh in the conference with 50 points. If they’d managed to steal two of those points from their conference foes (say, one each from Atlanta and Carolina, and denying them a point in the process), the Caps would be just a point behind Carolina and within striking distance of Atlanta (six points down with a game in hand). Could a mid-range salaried center have contributed to such a result? A similarly compensated defenseman? We’re not talking Daniel Briere money or Zdeno Chara money . . . a mid-salary range center, particularly, would likely be an improvement over the revolving door on the second line. The problem, as always, is what do you give up?

There is, though, the longer view as expressed by Ted Leonsis. And this gets into the strategic management of the cap. Right now, Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green (three of the players specifically identified by Leonsis and currently under contract) account for a combined cap hit of $5.967 million. Ovechkin alone would command more than that (and will, when eligible) as a free agent. One could argue that Semin could command, say, Simon Gagne money -- $5.25 million – as a free agent. Green, even if he develops into no more than a 3-4 defender, could command the same $3,000,000 a year Filip Kuba is pulling down with the Lightning. So, for these three players, we could be looking at an outlay of $17.05 million (in 2007 cap dollars) to keep them in the fold. The difference is $11.8 million of the $13 million Tarik El-Bashir spoke of in his commentary. And we’re not even up to Nicklas Backstrom yet.

I’m not advocating a quick-fix/trade during this season any more than I’m advocating keeping the powder dry to see how the kids develop or to test the free agent market next summer. This is why George McPhee has a harder job than fans normally give general managers credit for. What I am saying is that a decision point that was inevitable is arriving sooner than many might have thought – a product of the Caps being ahead of schedule in their development. Does the club start using some of those picks/prospects stockpiled in the sell off as trading assets?

Sports being what they are – difficult to predict in terms of future performance – there are no clear criteria on which to base a decision. That the Caps would have sacrificed points that could cost them a playoff spot this year could end up being equal parts frustrating and heartbreaking for fans. The associated effect of that could be sufficient frustration that some full/partial season ticket holders will not renew, thinking that the club is more serious about not losing money than about winning hockey games.

On the other hand, if the gamble on youth pays off next year or the year after, and a solid foundation is established to compete year after year – a core of players like those Leonsis mentioned with role players being swapped in and out as opportunities arise – then the gamble will likely payoff with more fans in the stands, more money to invest in players, scouting, and infrastructure, and a winning team.

But it is a gamble, and not an insignificant one. It could be no less than a gamble on hockey as we know it in Washington. The Caps invested in high-priced free agents in an effort to establish a “brand” and saw that strategy explode in their faces as losses -- on the ice and on the balance sheet -- and disgruntlement piled up. Then, the Caps tore out the walls right down to the studs to go with a youth movement. If that doesn’t work, what’s Plan C?

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Lightning

No points tonight, Caps fans . . .

And that, dear reader, qualifies as a wasted opportunity. The Caps did precisely what they needed to do against the Tampa Bay Lightning last night…

They needed to keep the Lightning out of man advantage situations, where they scored more than a third of their goals in the previous ten games. They did (Tampa was held scoreless in two opportunities).

They needed to take advantage of the few opportunities they were likely to be presented, given that Tampa had been shorthanded only 33 times in the previous ten games and faced shorthanded situations less often than any team in the league except New Jersey. They did (1-for-2 in their own power play opportunities).

They needed to keep this an even strength game and muster a measure of aggression in the offensive zone to try to keep the “three amigos” – Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards -- off their backs. Well, that’s where the wheels sort of came off . . .

. . . and that was a product of goaltending. It wasn’t one for the scrapbook of one Olaf Kolzig, who permitted five goals on 25 shots. More’s the pity, because he wasn’t necessarily the lesser of the goaltenders playing on this evening (Johan Holmqvist let four pucks elude him on the 22 shots he faced). But he really didn’t give his teammates the chance to win he does on most nights.

The silver lining here is that this was an abnormal night for the veteran netminder. If the Caps play games like this in terms of the performance of their skaters – and this was not an abnormal performance for this year – they will win more than they lose. Alexander Semin had two goals as he quietly marches up the goal-scoring rankings (he is now tied for seventh after potting his 23rd and 24th last night, giving him seven in his last four games). Alexander Ovechkin closed to within four points of Sidney Crosby for the overall scoring lead after getting two assists. Lawrence Nycholat continued his surprising play; he now is 2-5-7, +5 in ten games.

But all that was at the offensive end. At the other end, Kolzig had his troubles, but Brian Pothier had a difficult night (-3), as did Shaone Morrisonn, those being a product of the Lecavalier and St. Louis being a combined 3-2-5, +4 for the night. And that is precisely what the Caps could not allow to happen if they were to win this game.

Washington is now 11th in the conference, but at this point –- with five points separating 7th place from 13th -- it is hardly worth the heartburn of worrying that yesterday they were in the playoff mix and today they’re not. A nice eight or ten game points-earned streak would be nice, but what is likely to happen for the foreseeable future is more of the same tightly bunched jockeying and scratching for every available point.

They could have used one last night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, January 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

Tonight, the Caps return to divisional play with a visit to sunny Florida and dank, dark St. “Pete” Times Forum. Honest . . . “St. Pete” . . . as in the town of “St. Pete.” One had no idea that the Prince of the Apostles was so informal. But hey, things are laid back down there, I guess.

As for tonight’s opponent, the Lightning handed the Caps a 5-4 loss in Washington on December 19th. Since then, the Bolts are 6-4-0 and stand one thin point behind the Caps in the standings, the difference between eighth and ninth place, between being on the inside and on the outside of the potential playoff mix. The Caps also have a game in hand.

Over those ten games Tampa Bay has given as good as they got, scoring 27 goals and allowing the same. One can look at that as a glass half-full or half-empty. The key for Tampa has been winning the special teams battle. Over these ten games the Lightning have outscored their opponents 12-6 (the 12 coming on ten power play and two shorthanded goals). And that is a product of opportunity. Tampa Bay has had 44 man-advantage situations over these ten games to their opponents’ 33. The latter number is somewhat amazing in the modern version of the NHL – 3.3 shorthanded situations per game. It speaks either to discipline or a lot of benefit of the doubt accorded to a recent Stanley Cup champion by the men with whistles. Whether the Caps can draw penalties in this game will be something to watch, as the Lightning’s have a rather pedestrian 81.8 percent penalty kill rate in those 33 shorthanded situations.

Individually, the Lightning have had contributions from the usual suspects – Martin St. Louis has five goals (5-7-12), as does Vincent Lecavalier (5-7-12). But here is the odd part about these two . . . St. Louis, despite 12 points in these ten games is -5, Lecavalier is -4. St. Louis’ numbers are especially odd. Of his five goals, two are power play tallies and two are shorthanded.

The third amigo – Brad Richards – is 1-7-8, -2 in the last ten Lightning contests. While his numbers might seem to lag a bit behind St. Louis and Lecavalier, he’s made contributions as the trigger man on the power play with 1-3-4 with the man advantage over the last ten games.

The man who has really jumped up over these last ten games is defenseman Dan Boyle. He’s 4-7-11, +5 in that stretch, and even accounting for his hat trick against the Rangers on December 23rd, he’s been noteworthy.

Goaltending has been good enough, if not especially outstanding for the Lightning. Johan Holmqvist is 4-3-0, 2.35, .908 since the last time these two teams met. He does, however, show up as the Corey Hirsch character in this year’s highlight goal, scored by some guy from Nova Scotia last week. Marc Denis is 2-1-0 in four appearances since the last game against Washington, 3.02, .887. At the moment, he appears relegated to baseball cap duty.

This isn’t hard to figure out. Tampa has lived and died on its power play over the last ten games – 5-2 when they score at least one goal with the man advantage, 1-2 when they don’t. And the flip side of this is that Tampa has minimized their man disadvantage situations.

If the Caps can mount some consistent level of aggression on offense and force Tampa to draw penalties, the low kill rate Tampa’s had lately could spell trouble for the home team. And, it could enable the Caps to minimize power play advantages for the Lightning.

The Caps can win this game, but they have to play better, with more urgency than they mustered against the Flyers last Tuesday. As you might expect, it says here that they will.

Caps 4 – Lightning 2.

The Peerless Improvement Index

Are the Caps getting better? Well, sports being what they are, there is an easy way to answer that question -- wins and losses. Hockey being the quirky sport that it is, that's really a matter of points.

Which brings me to what you see over there in the right-hand margin -- "The Peerless Improvement Index," or "PI Index." It's quite simple, really. The Caps decided in the 2003-2004 season that all this spending on the likes of Jaromir Jagr, Robert Lang, and the dear departed Kip Miller wasn't working. Further, keeping old hands around like Peter Bondra or Sergei Gonchar wasn't really part of a plan to tear down and rebuild the team. So, the team had what amounted to a sell-off for picks and prospects. The result was perhaps the lowest point in franchise history for Caps fans since that dreadful inaugural season. The Caps finished the 2003-2004 season with a 23-46-10-3 record for a total of 59 points.

Well, we are now a couple of years (with a lockout in-between) removed from that debacle, and it is time to take a look at the progress being made, hence the "index." All it is, is a comparison of this point in time to a comparable point in time from that 2003-2004 season. In today's case, the Caps record over 43 games this season (19-17-7, 45 points) compared to that in the 2003-2004 season (12-26-4-1, 29 points). Expressed as an index, we have a value of 155.17...today's "improvement index." Think of it as your Caps version of the Dow Jones.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Flyers

It was a two-point night, Caps fans.




There is an old saying about baseball . . . there are 40 games you’ll win, no matter what, and there are 40 games you’ll lose, no matter what. It’s what you do with the rest of them that matters.

Well, we’ll leave the matter of the games you lose, no matter what, and the rest of them for another time. This morning, the matter at hand is games you win, no matter what.

The Caps last night faced a beaten team in the Philadelphia Flyers – beaten long before the final 6-2 result was displayed on the scoreboard, one that their own coach implied gave up in their last game against Ottawa. The Flyers also were beat up, missing Peter Forsberg and Joni Pitkanen, not to mention the lingering absences of Mike Rathje, Denis Gauthier, Mike Richards, and Geoff Sanderson. Add to that the fact that both goalies have suffered a variety of ailments this year, and a bad team becomes a sorrowful one. The Caps should have beaten this team, and should have been able to do it sleepwalking.

Lucky for the Caps, that’s pretty much what happened.

Robert Esche played the first shot of the game – one that one normally sees in a skate around – into a goal 15 seconds into the game. Alexander Ovechkin netted a goal six minutes later on the Caps’ third shot after the Flyers coughed up the puck in their own end and failed to pursue the matter with any intensity. When Ovechkin scored, you could see the Flyers collective shoulders visibly slump . . . here we go again. To their credit, they gamely pressed on, but unlike the case in, oh, the last decade or so, it was the Caps who badly outmanned the Flyers in terms of skill and quickness.

But the Caps, who could have applied a knockout in that first period, allowed the Flyers to dominate large stretches of play. Perhaps it was an effort to put on a show of skill for the home folks, perhaps it was just a lack of focus to the duties at hand, but there just didn’t seem to be a sense of urgency in the Caps’ play. Here’s an example of what went on . . . in the 23:21 between the Caps’ second and third goals, spanning parts of the first and second period . . .

Philly outshot the Caps, 19-13
They held the Caps even in face-offs, 15-15
They matched them in hits, 6-6
They protected the puck better, yielding only two giveaways to the Caps’ eight.

But let’s be fair here, too. In an 82-game season, there will be nights like this, and it is as much a testament to the development of the Caps as it is the woefulness of the Flyers that a comparatively pedestrian effort could result in such a lopsided result. Caps fans might be too timid and unsure to admit this, but the fact is, the Caps are better than the Flyers, and they are developing into a pretty good team right now, despite the holiday blues they experienced.

Looking at the numbers coming out of the game, you might not say that the Caps played badly or that any one player did . . . just that the team probably put forth their “B” game. One nice thing to see was Ben Clymer get that 15-seconds-in goal and get a plus-2. He might finally be righting his ship. In his last 11 games, he’s 2-3-5, -1, which isn’t bad for a guy getting about 14 minutes a night over that stretch of games.

And what can one say about Donald Brashear. If there was one Cap who seemed to bring a sense of giddyap last night, it was Brashear, and that’s not just because of his scoring his first goal as a Cap. Five shots on goal? They’ll be calling him “Alex” or “Bravechkin” at practice. Add in two hits and a blocked shot, and it wasn’t a bad night’s work for 12 minutes.

One down note was the absence of Mike Green in the third period. He’d had something of a quiet game through the first 40 minutes, but didn’t play in such a manner than obviously suggested a benching. One fears that he suffered an injury that is sure not to be disclosed as being anything but some sort of “(fill in the blank)-body injury.”

This being the NHL and not the Beauty Contest Sweepstakes of college football, two points is two points. You don’t get extra style points, and with the two they earned last night the Caps find themselves in eighth place in the East with a game in hand on each of their closest pursuers – Tampa Bay and Toronto.

And for those of you following the hijinks of Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, ponder this . . . since December 1st:

Sidney Crosby: 18 games, 11-22-33, +5
Alex Ovechkin: 18 games, 12-20-32, +3

They are now one-two in the scoring race, and both of their clubs are fighting for a spot in the top-eight. It will be a fun 40 game sprint to watch.

Well, well

I had no idea why I blogged until I read Ted Leonsis' latest edition of "Owner's Corner." That's when I read this . . .

"We might not always like what a blogger posts – but we won’t always agree with what the Post writes, either. Just because this is a new type of journalism, however, we aren’t going to shut them off from the access other writers receive. By inviting bloggers to interact with our staff and players, I believe they will gain a perspective that they otherwise could never have.

"Does that mean you can register on blogger.com, or blog on your AIM Page, and get free tickets to Caps games, as well as access to the locker room after the game? Not exactly. As you can see, the criteria that Eric and our staff developed isn’t easy to meet – there has to be a demonstrated audience for your blog, and as I noted before, to gain that you have to be providing something different."

--smack-- Here I thought I did this because I have a long-standing love and respect for the sport, and I try to be a little bit funny (with admittedly mixed results). When all along, I find out I must be doing it to "interact" with the staff and players, score passes to a game, or visit the locker room!

Wow.

Now, I've been in my share of sports locker rooms -- most of it way, way back in high school when I was on the football and wrestling teams. But, I still remember them as crude, smelly places filled with people who take great effort to try to be even more crude and smelly.

I like doing this and while I hope you find otherwise from time to time, I don't hold any delusions that what you'll read here is especially insightful or entertaining. What I have no interest in is a visit to a locker room, a couple of free ducats, or the "Ted Leonsis Good Blogging Seal of Approval."

The criteria you've developed isn't (sic) easy to meet? As far as I'm concerned, you can take your criteria and that full-of-yourself nonsense and pound them where the sun don't shine.

And if I haven't made it clear . . . NO!...I don't want any damned tickets or a pass to the locker room.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flyers, January 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

Tonight, we are brought to you by Quickie, the best in all-purpose brooms.

The Caps face a challenge and an opportunity tonight in their contest with the visiting Philadelphia Flyers. First, they can sweep the season series against their long-time rivals for the first time since . . . well, ever. Second, this is the “getaway” game of the home stand, the last one before the boys embark on a four game road trip. If the boys could get two points to give them six of eight on this home stand, they could find themselves right back in the thick of the mix as they start on their pre-All Star Game push.

Since the last time the Flyers visited Verizon Center on December 16th, they’ve played something like SOS hockey . . . L-L-L-L . . . W-W-W . . . L-L-L. The trouble is, that 3-7-0 record in their those ten games is just about the points pace they’ve put up all year. It is an historically bad year for the Flyers, a pace that would leave them with the worst record in their history (their 51-point pace would eclipse, if that’s the right word, their 58 point effort in 1969-1970 under the steady hand of the legendary Vic Stasiuk).

It’s not as if the Flyers have played well and been unlucky. Look at the numbers over these last ten games . . .

Outscored: 35-25
Power play: 6-47 (12.8 percent)
Penalty kill: 47-56 (83.9 percent . . . ok, that’s decent, but they sure get enough practice)
Outshot: 381-268 . . . good heavens, they’re being outshot by more than 11 shots a game, almost four shots a period! They could wall off the goal with bricks and mortar and still not win games with that kind of performance.

And, for the season . . .

Goals/game for: 29th
Goals/game against: 30th
Power play: 28th
Penalty kill: 7th
Shots/game for: 22nd
Shots/game against: 26th
Winning % when scoring first: T-26th
Winning % when scored upon first: 30th

-- Their top scorer – Simon Gagne – is tied for 72nd
-- They have no . . . NO players who are “plus” for the year with the club (Alexei Zhitnik, who is +5 for the year, is -8 in 11 games since being traded to Philadelphia) . . . no player who has played at least 30 games is better than -5.
-- They’ve been outscored at even strength, 112-66.

They’ve been beaten – often – and beat up (Peter Forsberg has had a plethora of injuries, and their goalies have fought of a variety of ailments).

The Flyers, in a word . . . suck.

And even with all that, the Caps could lose this game . . . why? Several reasons:

Herb Brooks . . . yeah, that one. The one who once said of his team, “you don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone.” And, the Caps don’t. They can beat the best the East has to offer if they bring their “A” game (as they did against Buffalo earlier this year). They can lose to the worst – or close to it – if they don’t (as they did to the Islanders). If the Caps don’t bring their “A” game and the Flyers get a spark early, they could make things needlessly rough on themselves.

Focus . . . this is the getaway game before a road trip. Sometimes, there is just that little hint of looking ahead.

Luck . . . one got the impression last Saturday that Alex Ovechkin and/or Alexander Semin could have had more goals than the three with which they finished the game. Pucks hopped over and past their sticks all night (might have been a result of the effects on the ice of a basketball game played earlier that day). It happens, it’s hockey.

But, there is no reason the Caps should – on paper – lose this game. And, to put it bluntly, any team with any designs on competing for a playoff spot has to jump on a team like this early and stand on their throats, especially a team playing the last game of an eight-game road trip. The Caps are on a bit of a mini-roll after a slump. Alexander Semin has four goals in the last two games, Dainius Zubrus chipped in a pair himself, and Alexander Ovechkin broke a five-game goal scoring slump the last time out. The stars are aligned for a big night for this club.

But nothing is a given.

Caps 6 – Flyers 1.

This is "a" goal...this is a "nice" goal. It is not, "The Goal."

Much as the assembled hockey media is gushing over this fine effort by Sidney Crosby to: a) find the pass from Mark Recchi, and b) redirect the pass into the net past a bewildered Johan Holmqvist, it is not destined to have the label, "the goal" attached to it.

First, it helps if the team for which the player scoring the goal actually wins the game. Second, it just doesn't have the contortive (if that's a word) charm that a guy twisting on his back, not looking at the net, scoring-with-a-flick-of-the-wrist has. Good heavens, the last word in goals didn't even get the player the first, or even the second star of the game in his own arena.

So just stop it. Stop it now, ok?

So, there I was watching a shootout . . .

Did I say that shootouts suck? That they are an abomination against all that is holy about hockey? Well, they are, but that's not the point . . .

I was watching the Penguins gag on their shootout chances this evening against Tampa Bay (the Lighting won on Martin St. Louis' trick shot crap), and it brought to mind the hapless Caps. Among the 29 teams that have participated in shootouts this year (San Jose hasn't so much as been in an overtime yet), the Caps are . . .

- tied for 28th in goals: 1
- 29th in conversion: 7.7 percent
- tied for 22nd in goals allowed (8)
- 29th in save percentage (33.3 percent)
- tied for 25th in wins (0)

That's 0-5 in shootouts this year. As awful as the mere thought of such garbage is, those are five points left on the table. Even getting two of them could spell the difference between an April date on the ice and a choice of tee times at their favorite golf clubs.

Did I mention that I hate the shootout?

b-b-b-b-but . . . I missed the Caps win last night

there, there, lil buddy...

(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

A Tale of Two Russians . . .

Player 1: 38 games, 21-19-40, +3, 10 PPG, 4 GWG, 16.3% shooting percentage, 17:41 avg. TOI
Player 2: 35 games, 19-20-39, -2, 9 PPG, 4 GWG, 15.2% shooting percentage, 20:09 avg. TOI

Player 1 is a 22-year old Russian and gets as much media attention as the prime rib at the buffet at a vegetarian conference
Player 2 is a 20-year old Russian and gets almost as much hockey ink as Paris Hilton gets entertainment ink

Player 1 is Alexander Semin
Player 2 is Evgeni Malkin


. . . Player 1 is one of the best kept secrets in the league

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Thrashers

As if it was a playoff game.

This is really the only rivalry that qualifies for the Caps in the Southeast Division. As goaltender Olaf Kolzig characterizes it, the Thrashers are "a team we hate." While still a pale imitation of what were the rivalries of the old Patrick Division, last night conjured up images of those old days. That the Caps are starting to feel a bit of the urgency of trying to secure a playoff position only added to the drama of what would turn out to be a 3-2 overtime win over the Atlanta Thrashers.

One had the feeling that Atlanta brought more talent into this game than the Caps, but at no point did the Thrashers truly dominate the action. The Capitals might have played their most complete defensive game of the year, holding the Thrashers to single digits in shots in each of the periods (including only one – but what a scary one it was – in the overtime).

There were heroes aplenty, and not just the ones who scored or set up scores . . .

Let’s start with Lawrence Nycholat. Is this guy an emerging story, or what? He led the club in ice time last night (more than 27 minutes), +1, three shots, a couple of hits, three blocked shots, and his was but one of several fine efforts from the blue line.

Or Donald Brashear . . . one doesn’t always need a fight to establish some momentum. He only had 7:45 of ice time, but made the most of his opportunities with a couple of hits and a lot of jump. The Peerless doesn’t remember him skating this well when he was in Philadelphia.

Or Olaf Kolzig . . . it would have been understandable if on this, his King Clancy Trophy tribute night, he wasn’t entirely in focus. But when you’re 36 and have been in 679 regular season and playoff games, you’ve seen most of it, if not all of it. Nothing reflected the kind of effort he had and the kind of player he is than taking J.P. Vigier’s skate to the back of the head, felling him for a couple of minutes as he shook the cobwebs out. Then, while still a bit woozy, he got just enough of the Vigier penalty shot with the inside of his right pad to deflect the puck to the far post and snuff the play. The guy is a linebacker on skates.

Chris Clark . . . was on the ice for each of the Caps’ goals. And he’s not just a bystander when the Alexes do what they do. He was right in the thick of things on the game-winner, drawing a defender to the outside to open up the ice and allow Steve Eminger to come through the middle and take the pass that would then become the behind-the-back feed on highlight clips this morning.

Add in the kind of performance that doesn't show up on the scoresheet (at least directly, but the Thrashers had only 22 shots in more than 64 minutes) by Shaone Morrisonn, Boyd Gordon, Brian Sutherby, Dainius Zubrus, Matt Pettinger, and others, and it was a fine all-around night.

There are very few numbers from last night that jump off the scoresheet, at least among individuals. The Alexes had 13 of the Caps’ 37 shots, but that’s not entirely unexpected. That Brooks Laich was next with four is. That ties his season high.

The real deal in the numbers is the balance . . . of the 18 skaters:

- 14 recorded shots on goal (of 37 total)
- 15 were credited with hits (of 28 total)
- Six had blocked shots
- Nine had takeaways
- Five had points (which does not include Olaf Kolzig, who had an assist on the first Alexander Semin goal)
- 16 had power play time (ok, Brashear had two seconds, sue me)

Both teams came in nicked – Atlanta was missing such as Andy Sutton and Slava Kozlov, the Caps John Erskine, Bryan Muir, and Matt Bradley. It had the feel of a playoff game, especially as the contest was winding down in regulation when the crowd of 15,642 seemed to get into the spirit of things. As the horn sounded to signal overtime and the game tied 2-2, one could only think of Joe Gould, the manager of “Gentleman Jim” Braddock . . .





. . . and at the 4:42 mark, Alexander Semin – with the help of Chris Clark and Steve Eminger – did just that.

It calls to mind a quote from the real Jim Braddock, who before his championship fight with Max Baer was called "a bum" by the Baer camp. "I may not be a great fighter, but I ain't a bum," replied the challenger.

And this morning, neither are the Caps.

Your OMMAA for December

Well, it’s that time again, time for The Peerless’ “Old Man’s Major Award Award.” This month’s OMMAA goes to a Cap who really outdid himself, a Cap who distinguished himself in ways heretofore unheard of this season, a Cap whose 0-1-1, -3 line means little in the larger scheme of things.

No, the winner for December had barely 100 minutes of ice time for the month but took 57 minutes in penalties, had seven fights (including bouts in three straight games), and was suspended for one game (his second suspension of the year).

The winner of the coveted OMMAA for December is none other than . . .

Donald Brashear

Display it proudly, Donald . . . just don't punch it.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, January 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Southeast Shootout time, once more, as the Caps return to divisional play to take on the Atlanta Thrashers, who this morning are not likely in a good mood. The Thrashers took a three-goal lead against the suddenly surprising Phoenix Coyotes early in the third period. The 4-1 lead should have ended the competitive portion of the contest. Well, it didn’t.

Phoenix scored a goal of its own a little over a minute later, then added goals by Shane Doan and Owen Nolan to tie things up before Yanic Perreault won it in overtime, 5-4.

After a five-game winning streak in late-December, Atlanta has gone on to stub their figurative toe in the last four, going 1-2-1. And the problem, as it usually is in such cases, is defense. The Thrashers have given up 16 goals in this short stretch; in their only win they gave up but two. Special teams have been a particular problem. Their inability to kill penalties effectively (72.7 percent of 22 chances) has been a problem matched by a power play that has converted on two of 16 chances (12.5 percent).

Atlanta had been among the more formidable road-scoring teams in the league but have dropped to tenth in per-game road scoring (2.87 goals/game). If there is one place the Thrashers struggle on the road – a point amplified in their last four games – it is on special teams. They are in the middle of the pack in goals scored (12th in goals with 17, 16th in conversions at 15.6 percent) but are dead last in the league in goals allowed (30) and 26th in penalty killing conversions (75.8 percent).

As usual, the Thrasher to look for is Jonathan Sim, Capital Killer (note: his contract -- $610,000 –- is up after this year . . . signing him might be the best thing the Caps can do for their defense, given that they see this guy eight times a year – short of trading a seventh round pick for Scott Niedermayer). Sim is 3-2-5, +1 in five games against the Caps this year, 11-6-17, +6 in 19 games for his career.

Oh yeah, the Thrashers have Marian Hossa, Vyacheslav Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk, too . . . they happen to be the numbers 2, 17, and 21 scorers in the league.

Kari Lehtonen should be returning to the nets tonight (Johan Hedberg played and took the loss last night), and that is not good news for the home team. His overall stats are not especially noteworthy – 2.79 GAA (21st), .912 (16th) – but he’s never lost to the Caps in regulation. He is 2-0-1 this year, 5-0-1 for his career.

Washington finished the first half 17-17-4, 41 points, which is better than where they were last year after 41 games (13-23-5, 31 points) and a lot better than two years ago (11-25-4-1, 27 points), but that 1-7-0 stretch to end the year (including New Year’s Day) left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

The Caps won in their last time out, though – a 5-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens. And in doing so, they danced with what brung ‘em to a 15-10-7 record on December 16th – timely scoring (pairs of goals by Dainius Zubrus and Alexander Semin), solid goaltending, low-risk defenseman play, responsible play from the forwards, and a bit of luck (Saku Koivu taking a penalty to wash out the tying goal when the game was sill in doubt, for example).

That’s what it will take tonight. Atlanta has the firepower – and that Sim guy – to make things ugly for a club that doesn’t bring its “A” game, especially on defense. It will start in goal, where Olaf Kolzig should get the nod. The thing is, though, Kolzig’s record against this club is not as good as one might expect for having faced what has been a bad club for most of its existence. Kolzig is 0-2-1 against the Thrashers this year, 12-10-4-2 for his career. It’s not as if his statistics against the Thrashers (2.72, .906) are much different than his overall career stats (2.68, .907). The Caps have often played just good enough to lose in front of him.

If you’re looking for one Cap to have a good night tonight, it would be a guy who could use one, goal-scoring wise. Alexander Ovechkin is 4-4-8 in five games against the Thrashers this year, 9-13-22 in 13 games in his career. Ovechkin, who has slipped to third in the goal scoring race, hasn’t had a goal in his last five games, one game off his career high (twice last year).

Other Caps to watch would include Dainius Zubrus, who on the heels of his two-goal effort against Montreal comes into this game 4-4-8 in five games against Atlanta this year, Alexander Semin, who has four goals in eight career games against the Thrashers, and Chris Clark, who has five points in five games this year.

In this morning’s Washington Post article, Dainius Zubrus made the point that "If our point shot [on the power play] is a threat, that forces the other teams to come out to challenge it, and that opens things up down low. The other thing is we need to shoot when we have a chance. Sometimes our mentality is to make the perfect play and score into an empty net. Power-play goals are about rebounds or bounces." While that is true in light of the Caps power play problems recently (9-for-58, 15.5 percent in their last ten games),it hints at a related point. The Caps haven’t been much of a threat in terms of scoring from defensemen. This was especially true during the 1-7-0 stretch, when the Caps had a total of three goals from defensemen, one in the last seven games of that streak. However, the addition of Lawrence Nycholat has opened up things a bit. He has two goals in his last four games, and Brian Pothier chipped in with his first of the year in the one-goal loss to Phoenix on New Year’s Day.

The Caps broke the schneid against the Thrashers in their last contest, thanks to some late-game heroics from Alexander Ovechkin, who scored a hat trick and the game-winning overtime goal. The Caps appear to be emerging from their holiday nap, but this will be a test of whether they are ready to make a January push to be a contender, or if they are still marking time.

Caps 4 – Thrashers 3.

Home is where the heart is...

Three teams in the East have losing records at home . . .

The Flyers -- who suck on toast -- are 3-11-4, and Tampa Bay is 10-11-0.

The other is the Caps, 9-10-3.

Not an easy way to make the playoffs.

Whither, Jakub Klepis?

Over 33 games, the young forward has been seeing his ice time diminish to the point of being discernible only with the use of sophisticated optics. In his last 13 games, he’s been on the ice at least 10 minutes three times. Last night, against Montreal, he saw what might have been his low point as an NHL player. He was on the ice for two shifts and was apparently benched for the night after taking a hooking penalty at the 7:50 mark of the first period. Only a single takeaway otherwise contributed to his scoresheet line for the evening.

It isn’t as if he’s played especially badly in the last month – one in which his ice time has decreased precipitously – but he hasn’t really asserted himself in a manner commensurate with his skill. From the stands, it’s hard to tell if he’s coasting or becoming timid. But, he is largely a transparent figure on the ice. A player of his offensive upside should be making more than an impact than having more than one shot on goal only three times since Thanksgiving. And, he seems to have a propensity for taking the lazy penalty. If you look at his PIMs, they are not of a high volume on their own (24 minutes overall), but of the 12 minors he’s taken this year in his 33 games, seven are for hooking (as was last night’s apparent “here’s your wake up call, kid” penalty). Three have been for holding and the other two for interference.

Enough time has passed in the new scheme of things in the league where persistently drawing these kinds infractions should have come to an end. That they haven’t is unfortunate, because the young man’s whole game right now just looks like a mess, and he’s a better player than that.

Is there a trip to Hershey in his near future? Well, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for him, similar to sending a young hitting prospect down to the minors so he can find his swing and get his head screwed back on.

But something has to give. Klepis has too much to contribute in the long term to this club for this to continue much longer.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Canadiens

1-0

It was the 41st game of the season, the end of the first half of the season, but the second half really started last night. And the Caps applied some payback to a Montreal Canadiens team that spanked them in their first visit to Verizon Center last month. The 5-1 win was welcome in several respects:

- It was the first time in five games that the first line of Alexander Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark (which began and ended the game as a line, perhaps signaling the end of the experiment of Alexander Semin spending time on that line) scored a goal. Zubrus netted two goals on his only two credited shots of the game – he almost had a hat trick in the third but found the side of the post on a shot.

- Alexander Ovechkin had three assists to give the top line five points for the night. Ovechkin’s three-pointer vaulted him to third in the scoring race (25-29-54) behind Marian Hossa and someone else.

- Mike Green had four credited hits to lead the club. Green has been something of an anonymous player the last few weeks, but last night was the ninth straight game he’s been either even of a plus player. In the midst of the Caps troubles, that’s something of an achievement.

- If your looking for differences (other than the score) in the numbers between this game and the December 27th game between these clubs, well, good luck . . . the Caps outshot the Habs 35-28 last night (31-28 in December) . . . were even in hits, 20-20 (were out-hit in a less-than-physical game in December, 15-10) . . . even in takeaways, 17-17 (losing that battle in the last game, 8-4) . . . yielded fewer giveaways, 16-20 (versus giving up more, 8-4, in December) . . .

- But there was this – the Caps lost the face off battle by only 31-30 (they lost, 30-23 in December). That might seem significant, except if you deconstruct some of the Caps’ scoring. They scored their first after Zubrus won an offensive zone faceoff, Ovechkin sent a backhander to the net, and Zubrus pounced on the rebound for the score. Washington scored its third goal in slightly different fashion, winning a neutral zone faceoff after a penalty call on Saku Koivu (more on that to come), but netting a goal (Lawrence Nycholat) about half a minute later. Face offs are not the be-all or end-all of success, but doing the little things are important.

- None of this should diminish the face that the turning point came on a Montreal goal that wasn’t. With 7:18 gone in the second Alexei Kovalev appeared to tie the game, 2-2, but the goal was immediately and emphatically washed out by the referee who whistled Saku Koivu for goaltender interference, where as he was skating through the top of the crease nudged goaltender Olaf Kolzig and caused Kolzig to lose his grip on his stick. Habs fans didn’t much like it, but it appeared to be the correct call. And, it put the Canadiens on their heels, especially when Nycholat scored less than a minute later and Alexander Semin less than a minute after that, giving the Caps a 4-1 lead and chasing goalie Cristobal Huet. Montreal, which is not nearly as fearsome an offensive team as they are a defensive one, had dug themselves too deep a hole.

Now, for some odd numbers . . .

Zero – the Caps had 13 skaters register hits last night. Alexander Ovechkin was not among them.

Even, -7 – That’s the combined plus-minus of Chris Higgins, Saku Koivu, Michael Ryder in the first game, and what they were last night . . . tough night.

11-3 – that’s the faceoffs won and lost by Dainius Zubrus. No other Cap had a .500 percentage. Well, Brooks Laich did, but he only took one draw (1-0).

12 – Winning games often involves the performance of tasks that really take some effort. The Caps had 20 blocked shots, but 12 of the 18 skaters were involved.

6 – Matt Pettinger had six shots last night, all in the first two periods, to lead the club among players whose name does not end in “vechkin.” But it was his taking one for the team – absorbing a hit from Francois Bouillion while moving the puck up ice – that ultimately sprung Semin for his second goal of the night.

It was a fine night for a club that needed one, a gutsy performance against a quality team. Even the new Speaker of the House was impressed by the strength the Caps showed in this one. It was the right way to begin the real second half of the season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Canadiens, January 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

Tonight, we get right back on the horse, put all those losses behind us, start from scratch, it’s 0-0, and . . .

“Hey, you don’t need macadamia nuts to fondle a donkey.”*

Well, isn’t this fortuitous . . . it’s TV’s favorite shrink, Dr. Phil himself – just in time to tackle the woes that have befallen our beloved Capitals. Doc, how are you doin’?

“It’s time to get real!”

o-o-o-o-o-kay, then. Doc, the Caps have been in the doldrums lately. What advice would you give to the boys?

“You don’t need sideburns to eat a bug.”

Ok, Ok, I can understand that . . . sort of. But they’ve really been listless in their own end. They can’t seem to keep the puck out of their own net. Can you shine a light on the problem?

“You don't need a 50-watt light bulb to dance like an idiot 'til yer toes fall off.”

I never thought of it that way . . . but the guys seem to have lacked the fire that characterized their early play. Even Donald Brashear getting into a few scrapes doesn’t seem to have lifted the team . . .

“You don't need bad manners to get all up in somebody's grill, yo.”

I see, I see. But they just don’t seem to want to do the dirty work they need to do to win games lately . . .

“You don't need stain-resistant pants to put some pep in your step.”

That sounds like pretty good advice. Maybe they’re too tight, gripping those sticks a little too hard, do you think they should lighten up a bit?

“You don't need Shemp to dare to be stupid.”

I see . . . and maybe a bit grittier on the ice?

“You don't need a bag of wolverines to shave a weasel.”

No, but it might help . . . So, Dr. Phil . . . any advice for this columnist?

“You don't need an open mind to find your inner moron.”

Uh-huh…OK, so let’s get to the game. Since the last time these clubs met eight days ago, their combined records are 1-5-0, Montreal securing the only win in their last game, against Tampa Bay this past Tuesday. The Canadiens had trouble finding the back of the net for a couple of games, netting only single goals against Florida and Tampa Bay before breaking out with a five-spot against the Lightning in the second half of a home-and-home.

Montreal is not an especially fearsome scoring club on the road. Their 2.63 goals per game average puts them in the bottom third in the league in that statistic and is more than three-quarters of a goal per game worse than their home scoring average. However, their road defense is formidable. They are among the top clubs in fewest goals allowed-per-game (2.47), and no club has given up fewer goals overall on the road. What’s more, they are a very effective penalty killing team on the road – they are fourth in fewest power play goals allowed (14) and lead the NHL in shorthanded goals scored on the road (6). Their power play is a two-edged sword. They are fourth in the NHL in power play conversion on the road (19.5 percent), but stand 26th in total road power play opportunities.

That they would have so many shorthanded goals on the road and covert a high percentage of their own road power plays, few that those opportunities might be, suggests a very opportunistic club against which the Caps almost need to play with their own “road game” mentality. Trying to be too cute or too showy for the benefit of the home crowd could spell trouble. And, they need to take advantage of their own opportunities, something they failed to do in the last meeting, when the Caps converted only one of eight power play chances, and that lone goal (their only one in a 4-1 loss) coming when the game was largely settled.

Montreal doesn’t give up much, and when they do, Cristobal Huet has been up to the task of cleaning up the mess. He’s fifth in the league in GAA among goalies having the majority of their club’s appearances, first in save percentage.

The Caps, on the other hand, have a lot of problems to sort out, but they can be lumped into two broad categories – they give up too many goals, and they don’t score enough. Well…duh. In this 1-7 slide, the Caps have 18 goals scored, 32 allowed. Not only are they losing, they’re falling out of games early. They’re getting outscored by almost two goals a game in this stretch, and in the seven losses they’ve been outscored in the first period, 17-4. In only one of those games did the Caps score first. Even if one takes away the six-goal onslaught by Buffalo in the first period of the December 26th contest, the Caps were outscored 11-3 in six losses. It’s a lot to expect any club to come back from the early holes they consistently dig themselves into, but the Caps have had the added problem of lacking any scoring rhythm. When they were getting production from the top line, no one else seemed to be contributing, and now that there is some sign of life from some of the more unusual scoring suspects, the top line (Alexander Ovechkin-Dainius Zubrus-Chris Clark) hasn’t had a goal in four games.

As for what the Caps might need, let’s leave that one to the good Doctor . . . Doc?

“Sometimes you just got to give yourself what you wish someone else would give you.”

A good swift kick in the ass?

“You got it.”

Caps 2 – Canadiens 1.


* Quotes courtesy of the good folks at Mangy Dog Productions
And, just like those folks, this is not associated with Dr. Phil.

So...how do you create a video?

Watch, and be amazed.

And, in other news . . .

Scoring leaders in the World Under-20 Tournament.

and, goalkeeping leaders.

For those of you scoring at home, Caps picks Oskar Osala and Nicklas Backstrom are tied for fourth and tied for 17th, respectively. Meanwhile, goaltending prospect Semen Varlamov leads all goaltenders in both save percentage and goals against average.

Snack Food Choices

This is why Doritos Nacho Cheese corn chips are far superior to Lays potato chips.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Coyotes

You know what?...I'd rather watch a panda sneeze than write about that gawdawful game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Coyotes, January 1st

It was January 16, 2006, the blush not even off the new year just yet. The Capitals were winding up a three-game road trip in Phoenix. Mid way through the third period of a 5-1 game, most folks were pondering what might be on another channel. They’d have done well to put the remote down. Brendan Witt dumped the puck out of the Capitals’ defensive zone and off the boards past one of the Coyotes. Alexander Ovechkin picked up the puck in front of the Caps’ bench in full stride just short of the red line. Skating down the right wing side, he was marked by defenseman Paul Mara, who stepped into Ovechkin as the winger was crossing the middle at the top of the circles in the Phoenix zone. Ovechkin lost control of the puck as he tangled with Mara, then tumbled on his side to the ice. As he was sliding toward the left wing corner, he rolled to his back and in one motion brought his stick over his head, snapping it with a flick of his wrist and redirecting the puck into the net past a stunned Brian Boucher in goal. Boucher could only curl up and bury his face in the ice while Steve Gainey could only spin on a skate in disbelief. Lost in this is the presence of mind of linemate Boyd Gordon, trailing the play on the right side, not to tap the puck into the net from the other side, thus washing out the most spectacular goal of the 2005-2006 season. So, where in the world does Alex score from today . . . let us consider a possibility. First period . . . Dainius Zubrus wins the opening draw . . . Steve Eminger corrals the puck in the Capitals’ zone . . . Ovechkin circles into the Caps’ zone, where Eminger feeds him the puck . . . Ovechkin skates out and up the ice, shadowed by Keith Ballard . . . Shane Doan slides over to provide support . . . then Mike Zigomanis . . . then Derek Morris and Oleg Saprykin . . . then Jeremy Roenick (sensing a video moment on which he could be captured) . . . Mike Comrie . . . Georges Laracque . . . Wayne Gretzky, for heaven’s sake (not this time, sonny) . . . the equipment manager throws extra goalie sticks on the ice . . . Ovechkin is still steaming toward the Coyote net . . . more Coyotes come streaming off the bench, piling on top of the rushing winger . . . Ovechkin plants the end of his stick in the ice between the circles and spins about it, kicking Coyotes aside by the dozen . . . more Coyotes flood the ice (hey, Peerless, isn’t this a penalty?), jumping on the winger – Ovechkin lowers a shoulder and springs into the air, flinging Coyotes off his back . . . he flips the puck into the air and with a mighty swat that defies laws of time and motion sends the puck into the back of the Phoenix net. Wayne Gretzky can only turn and whisper, “you are the One . . . “ Too much? Well, anyway, it’s the New Year and a chance to brush the dust of a 1-6-0 finish to the old year off. Phoenix visits Verizon Center with a record of 15-20-2, which is a bit deceiving. The Coyotes are 4-12-1 away from home, although they did manage a win in their last away contest, a 3-2 win against the sturdy San Jose Sharks last Thursday. As befits their dismal road record the Coyotes are dead last in the league in road scoring at 1.88 goals per game. They don’t make up for it with rock-ribbed defense – they are 29th in road goals allowed at 4.18 per game. Their specialty team ranks of 26th in road power play (only one team has scored fewer power play goals) and 27th in road penalty kill (no team has given up more power play goals) round out a poor team statistical profile. Among the skaters, the offense-challenged nature of Phoenix reveals itself. One Coyote has a double-digit goal total – Yanic Perreault (11), who has played only 25 games for the club. No Coyote has 30 points. Aging heartthrob Jeremy Roenick netted a hat trick in his last outing (an 8-0 win over San Jose), which lifted his totals to a still-anemic 4-5-9, -8, in 32 games. Ladislav Nagy – a persistent subject of trade rumors (mostly started by Caps fans, The Peerless believes) – leads the scoring parade . . . well, pub crawl . . . with a 6-22-28 line. The Coyotes are not a club entirely bereft of ability, though. Ed Jovanovski is 7-12-19, -1, and is a strong blue line presence (unfortunately for the Coyotes, he’s missed several games with a groin injury). Yanic Perreault is up to his usual specialty tricks, winning more than 62 percent of his draws. Expect him to take every important draw, including facing off against Ted Leonsis in the owners’ box for the last shrimp on the buffet. Keith Ballard is a promising young defenseman, one of only two (Travis Roche being the other) on the “plus” side of the ledger for the Coyotes. Shane Doan is still a presence worthy of attention. In goal, Curtis Joseph registered the shutout against San Jose last Thursday, so this could mean Mikael Tellqvist gets the nod this afternoon. Both have played decently, particularly lately. Joseph is 2-2-0, 2.32, .932 in his last five appearances. Tellqvist has struggled a bit more with a 2-2-1, 3.32, .885 record in his last five appearances. Frankly, this is an opponent served up as a remedy to the Caps’ woes, just as the Caps were for the Rangers Saturday night. Despite injuries, illnesses, and call-ups, this is a game the Caps should and needs to win. Getting off to a good start on the first day of the new year is largely symbolic (how many folks remember last year’s 5-2 pounding of the Caps by Atlanta on New Year’s Day?). But it sure can’t hurt after all this recent losing . . . Caps 6 – Phoenix 3.

It was a pretty good year . . .

2006 . . . What a year . . .

In the space of four days in January, Alexander Ovechkin registered his first hat trick in the NHL and then managed to score a goal while sliding on his back away from the net at which he was . . . uh, shooting. It was a memorable January – the Caps finished 5-8-2.

In February, the Caps played an abbreviated schedule due to the Olympics. But, Mike Green scored his first goal as a Capital, in a 4-1 win against Toronto. Alexander Ovechkin scored a goal by somersaulting into the rafters and banking a wrist shot off of Don Cherry’s tie knot. The Caps finished 2-4-0

March . . . the Caps saw a return to a full slate of games, although what a metamorphic rock derived out of sedimentary materials has to do with schedules for a professional sports team is a mystery. The Caps secured their only win of the season against the Pittsburgh Penguins, highlighted by a goofy goal from the stick of Ivan Majesky, who fired (“blooped” would be a more apt description) the puck from the boards near the Caps’ bench in an effort to clear the zone while killing a penalty. The puck landed near the Penguins' blue line – in full sight of Penguin goaltender Sebastien Caron – upon which Alexander Ovechkin gave the puck the evil eye, willing it to bounce out of the reach of Caron and into the net, leaving Caron embarrassed and Penguin fans wailing about how this will cost them a new arena. Brendan Witt was traded to the Nashville Predators for a boxed set of Loretta Lynn classics. Kris Beech was added as a throw-in. The Caps finished 4-6-5.

April . . . the Caps played 328 games against Carolina. Well, not that many, but it seemed like it. Alexander Ovechkin scored a goal by levitating above the ice and casting the puck into the net on a lightning bolt emitted from his eyes. Olaf Kolzig and Brent Johnson split ten decisions – Johnson won three, Kolzig won two. Caps fans immediately called for Johnson to be installed as the next season’s starter and Kolzig banished to collecting parking passes at FedEx Field. The Caps played the role of spoiler, ending Atlanta’s bid for a playoff spot in the next-to-last game of the year. Thirty eight people saw it at MCI Center. The Caps finished 5-3-2.

May . . . Caps fans huddled around their TV screens and computers to follow the latest progress. Redskins rookie camp was said to have gone well. No one killed Gregg Williams.

June . . . Alexander Ovechkin announced the Capitals’ first pick in the NHL entry draft – Nicklas Backstrom of Brynas in the Swedish Elite League. He did such a great job, he was given the responsibility of announcing the meal choice of the guys at the Caps’ draft table – Kung Pao Chicken and Polish sausage sandwiches.

July . . . The free agent signing period began, and the Caps were active – unfortunately, no one thought to charge their cell phones, and Zdeno Chara ended up in Boston. The Caps made up for lost time by signing Richard Zednik. Trevor Linden could not be reached for comment.

August . . . the club, acknowledging that the new skating facility in Ballston would not be ready for training camp, announced that camp would open in the frozen food section of the Wegman’s on Route 28 in Loudoun County. Fans attending on the first day of camp would receive coupons for Mrs. Paul’s fish sticks.

September . . . The Redskins opened camp, the Nationals’ season was winding down, the Terps were opening their ACC football season, DC United was trying to hang onto the top spot in the East in the MLS. That constituted sports news on the local front for . . . oh, yeah . . . the Caps opened camp (Wegman’s did not run out of fish sticks).

October . . . The National Hockey League season opened with a thud as the Caps served as useful props for the Rangers’ opening night win. Dozens of Caps fans attended the home opener a couple of nights later. Alexander had a hat trick. No, not that one, the other one. The Caps finished 4-3-4. Fans were planning parade routes for the Stanley Cup celebration.

November . . . was a month of firsts . . . the Caps did something in Philadelphia they hadn’t done since January 1998 – they took a team wizz on the Rocky statue. It must have worked, since the Caps also won their first game in Philly in all that time. Then, Olaf Kolzig did something he hadn’t done in his entire career. He beat the Dallas Stars . . . then he celebrated by almost losing his lunch when Jamie Heward had a new set of nostrils carved into his face by a Mike Modano skate blade. The Caps finished 6-6-2.

December . . . Alexander Ovechkin started off the month scoring a goal by stuffing the puck in Daniel Briere’s mouth and shooting him into the Buffalo Sabre net. Briere spent the next month complaining of neck pain and . . . cramps with bloating. Then, the Caps did two things they hadn’t done in more than a decade – they swept Philadelphia, and they horked up a four goal lead to the Penguins. The next night, Ovechkin scored the tying goal in the last minute of regulation against Atlanta, then won it six seconds into overtime. Then they beat the Flyers again and celebrated by driving to Philly and wizzing on the Rocky statue. Then they gave up six goals in 37 seconds (ok, it only seemed that way) to Buffalo. It was a helluva month for a club that finished 6-7-1.

And it was a helluva year for a club that is making small, but sure steps back to respectability. Alexander Ovechkin is everything he was said to be and more. Olaf Kolzig remains the cornerstone of the franchise, in and out of the locker room. Alexander Semin dazzles with his stick work, and if you blink, you’ll miss that wrister heading to the back of the net. Mike Green plays with a veteran’s sense of patience. Shaone Morrisonn is growing into the stopper that the Caps need. Matt Pettinger has given indications that his breakout year last year wasn’t a fluke. John Erskine has been a pleasant surprise. The boys in Hershey are taking up right where they left off in June with their Calder Cup win.

The future looks a lot brighter in these parts than it has in some time. 2006 was a year of progress. Here’s to 2007 being one of achievement. And pretty soon, all of us can celebrate by heading to Philly and wizzing on the Rocky statue.

Happy New Year, hockey fans.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Rangers

It’s one thing to fall to a club that is experienced in the ways of winning, as the Caps did on Friday night to the Devils. It is quite another to go toes up against a club that has played horrible hockey for the better part of the last month. But that’s what happened last night when the Caps went quietly – in the hockey way of things – to the New York Rangers, 4-1 (at least The Peerless got the score right).

It was brutal.

Petr Prucha, who last year was a darling in Manhattan, but who now seems to be more the topic of trade rumors, netted two goals. Well, gee…until last night, he’d had one goal since Veterans Day.

Darius Kasparaitis, who was given up for dead a month ago, coming off groin and shoulder injuries, and crowded out of a defensive lineup that wouldn’t scare small children, gets a goal and was a plus-three. Kasparaitis hadn’t had a plus-three game since October 13, 2005.

Karel Rachunek, who isn’t on anyone’s Norris short list, had a pair of assists and was a plus-two.

It wasn’t as if the Caps succumbed to an all-star lineup. It wasn’t as if the Rangers played particularly well. This was a game the Caps should have won.

Moral victories should be getting to be a thing of the past. The club has to find a way to steal a couple of points here and there when they aren’t fielding their best lineup. Instead, the Caps find themselves at the end of the year marching in place, a .500 team. Don’t get me wrong, that’s an improvement over where they were on December 31, 2005 (13-20-3, for those of you scoring at home), but closing 2006 on a 1-6-0 run wasn’t in the game plan. Here is what “stealing” two points here and there could have meant. If they’d stolen two games (a 3-4-0 record instead of 1-6-0), they would be 18-14-7 and tied for sixth with Ottawa. This morning, they are 11^th.

What’s the problem? Well, giving up 29 goals in seven games – only one in which fewer than four goals were allowed (not coincidentally, the only win in this stretch) – points to a problem. In spite of injuries, that just suggests a team-wide loss of focus. That seemed always to be the danger here with a young team. Between the holidays and the start of the long march through the winter, focus was something that could wander. Add to that the spate of injuries and illness, and it was a recipe for trouble. An explanation, maybe, but that should be used by no one as an excuse. If this team has designs on the playoffs, it has to find a way to weather such storms.

2006 ends with a record of 32-37-16. In 2007, fans – not to mention the club -- will be expecting better.

The Remarkable Consistency of Alexander Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin has now played 337 games in the NHL. Looking at his ten-game segments, what is striking is his remarkable scoring consistency. The breakdown, from his first ten-game segment to his most recent:


337 games (through October 31, 2009) games -- 233 goals, 210 assists, 443 points . . . Through 130 games, he was a metronome -- 13 points every ten games, like clockwork. There was a 40-game spell during which he "slumped" a bit (20-12-32). But in his next seven full ten-game segments, he was never been below 10 points. He is currently on a nine-segment streak in which he scored at least ten points.

Oh, and Alex was named a first-team all-star for the fourth time on the heels of his 2008-2009 season. He is the only player in NHL history to be named a first team all star in each of his first four seasons in the league.

updated: November 1, 2009

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, December 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

This is a special medical edition of The Prognosto, featuring a panel of esteemed medicos – Dr. Marcus Welby, Dr. James Kildare, Dr. Victor Ehrlich, and Dr. Ben Casey.

(They’re all dead, Peerless)

Uh, no their not, Kildare is still around somewhere, and Ehrlich it tooling around in his hybrid car.

(ok…whatever you say)

So, doctors…we have a number of Caps on the shelf with illness and injury. What do you prescribe to get them back on the ice?

Dr. Welby: “Leech”

Dr. Casey: “Welby, you always say ‘leech’”

Welby: “No, you idiot, ‘Leetch.’ The defenseman? Don’t you follow hockey, Casey?”

Dr. Kildare: “Or?”

Welby: “Or what, sonny?”

Kildare: “No, Doctor…’Orr.’ He was great when I was an intern.”

Dr. Ehrlich: “They have medicine when you were an intern?”

Kildare: “That’s not very professional…”

Casey: “Could they use a ‘pronger?’”

Welby: “you surgeons, always wanting to use fancy instruments…”

Casey: --rolls eyes—

Kildare: “maybe the problem is no Klemm”

Welby: “phlegm?”

Kildare: “No, you ossified fart, ‘Klemm’ . . . plays for the Stars”

Ehrlich: “Phaneuf”

Everyone: “gesundheit”

Well, so much for the masters of medicine, how about the game? . . . The Washington Bearitals come into the back half of yet another back-to-back on a 1-5-0 run and slipping through the standings. They dropped to tenth in the conference last evening, but could – with a win against the Rangers tonight and losses by Ottawa, the Islanders, and the Bruins – climb all the way into a tie for sixth in points in the East. Such is the crowded situation these days.

The Bearitals come into this game with the possibility of having to fill multiple slots with call-ups from Hershey. Matt Pettinger, Brian Sutherby, and Steve Eminger missed last night’s game with the Devils due to stomach flu. Chris Clark, Mike Green, and Brian Pothier played under the influence of that bug. John Erskine remains out, as do Bryan Muir and Matt Bradley with injuries. Begs the question, who does Hershey ice in a first-place showdown against Norfolk tonight?

However, the story here is the Rangers. If you haven’t been paying attention, they’ve lost seven in a row. That isn’t the half of it. In that streak, the Rangers were shutout in their last two games (2-0 to the Islanders, 1-0 last night to Ottawa), Michael Nylander was benched for the entire third period of the game against the Islanders, Jaromir Jagr has only two goals and is a -4 in the losing streak, they are 4-for-37 (10.8 percent) on the power play in their last seven, 22-for 33 (66.7 percent) in penalty killing, Brendan Shanahan has only one goal in his last ten games. If there is a light at the end of the Rangers’ tunnel, it is that goalie Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent in the two shutout losses, stopping 63 of 66 shots (95.5 percent). But even that has a down side. Since Lundqvist has played in the last three Ranger games, the second half of their own back-to-back might call for Kevin Weekes to get a start. Weekes has had some problems in this stretch of Ranger futility – 0-3-0, 4.24, .857 in four appearances.

These are two teams fumbling for a way out of recent misery. They have different problems, though. The Rangers haven’t been able to score much – 11 goals in seven games. The Bearitals haven’t been able to stop anyone – 25 goals allowed in their last six contests. So, it’s the resistible force against the moveable object tonight. Who blinks first? Well, the difference could be the level of effort and the crowd. The Caps haven’t lacked for effort in this slide, and the Ranger crowd could be in the mood for red meat – wearing blue jerseys. A fast start would do wonders for the Bearitals’ chances here, and Alexander Ovechkin likes a big stage. It could be ugly for the blueshirts, especially given that wounded Washington is served up as a remedy for their own recent woes. 2006 ends on a good note for the good guys . . .

Caps 4 – Rangers 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Devils

Well, The Peerless called that one, didn’t he . . . whoever scores first wins? It’s a sign of where the Caps are at the moment that scoring first would have no meaning; that a club having difficulty coming back in such situations should not only do so, but carry a two-goal lead into the final minute.

And as for the guys who were going to be the bricks and mortar of a win? They were laid up in a hotel room battling a stomach virus, according to Tarik El-Bashir’s column in this morning’s Post. Matt Pettinger, Brian Sutherby, and Steve Eminger – all of whom have been struggling lately – ended up on the shelf. Three more players -- Chris Clark, Mike Green, and Brian Pothier – were ill, but dressed. Pothier’s minutes were reduced by eight from his average for the season; Clark and Green played slightly less than normal.

All in all, it would be hard to find much fault with the Caps last night, especially with the lineup they iced:

Forwards:

Alexander Ovechkin
Dainius Zubrus
Chris Clark
Alexander Semin
Boyd Gordon
Brooks Laich
Kris Beech
Ben Clymer
Jakub Klepis
Donald Brashear
Brian Sutherby Dave Steckel
Matt Pettinger

Defense:

Brian Pothier
John Erskine Lawrence Nycholat
Bryan Muir Jamie Hunt
Steve Eminger Timo Helbling
Jamie Heward
Shaone Morrisonn
Mike Green

Goalie:

Olaf Kolzig

If there was one line that reflected the evening and had The Peerless scratching his head, it was this one . . . Brook Laich, from Lawrence Nycholat and Kris Beech. That could have been a scoring line from last spring’s Calder playoffs. And here’s one for you . . . Lawrence Nycholat registered the first two point game (1-1-2) by a defenseman in almost a month (John Erskine . . . John Erskine?? . . . December 2, vs. Buffalo). The last one before Erskine’s was October 30^th (Shaone Morrisonn vs. Calgary). Whodathunkit, eh?

But here is the nub of the matter . . . New Jersey really hasn’t played like that much a better team than the Caps this year (they came in with 43 points, the Caps 39). But they know how to win games, and they know how to take advantage of an opponent’s weaknesses, especially when that opponent has holes in its lineup. For the Caps, the effort was there – Herculean in fact -- but not the ability to finish. That comes with experience – another lesson on the road to competitiveness.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils, December 29th

First to score wins…

If there is one statistic that matters in the game this evening between the Caps and the New Jersey Devils, that’s the one. Why? Because both teams suck at coming from behind. Washington is 28th in the league in winning percentage when scored upon first, New Jersey 24th. If you’re worried about missing the next exciting episode of “Shark” this evening at 8:00 on CBS, don’t be. This game could be settled in the first ten minutes, thus leaving you free for an evening of exciting prime time viewing entertainment, brought to you by the same folks who made “CSI” a four-letter word.

Here’s another nugget to chew on . . . The Caps have six shorthanded goals this year (tied for 8th in the league); the Devils have given up eight shorties (tied for second most). Paging Chris Clark . . . Paging Brooks Laich . . .

And one thing you’re not likely to see . . . a Caps power play goal. First, the Devils have the fewest shorthanded situations in the league this year by a wide margin (more than 12 percent fewer than second place Tampa Bay). Second, they’re killing off 88.2 percent of those situations . . . 16 power play goals allowed this year.

The Caps are in a plum-pudding addled funk at the moment, following up a 7-1-1 run with a 1-4-0 skid. Part of the five game slide is health (Richard Zednik, Shaone Morrisonn, John Erskine, Matt Bradley, Bryan Muir), part of it is just a lack of results (Matt Pettinger: 0-0-0, -3; Brian Sutherby: 0-1-1, -2, 30.3 percent on faceoffs; Jakub Klepis: 0-0-0, -4; Brian Pothier: 0-0-0, -4; and even with a 3-3-6 line, Alex Ovechkin is -3).

More odd numbers . . .

In this five game slide, the Caps – heretofore thought of as a decent even strength team – have only five even strength goals (six power play and a shorthanded goal make up the rest of the total of 12 goals). They’ve given up 14 goals at even strength.

They’ve give up at least four goals in four of the five games.

Of the 12 goals they’ve scored, eight have come off the sticks of the top line of Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Clark; two others from Alexander Semin – the usual suspects. But the Caps have gotten scoring from virtually no one else (four goals – two from Kris Beech, one each from Bryan Muir and Jamie Heward . . . please note the utter lack of contributions from the third or fourth lines there).

Chalk things up to injuries if you like, but what the injuries have done is expose the Caps lack of depth. And, they’re just not playing well . . . for example, Matt Pettinger hasn’t scored a point in his last eight games and is -5 over that span; Jakub Klepis has no points in his last nine and is -4; Brian Sutherby hasn’t scored a goal in more than two months.

The Caps get fairly consistent production from the top line; Alexander Semin has the scorer’s streakiness but has good numbers as well. However, the Caps live and die by the contributions the other guys make at both ends of the ice. No one is expecting Brian Sutherby to become Jason Spezza, or Matt Pettinger to become Jarome Iginla, but to the extent the Caps aren’t getting consistent production from players such as these (and they’re not the only examples), they’re not getting consistent results. For the Caps to win tonight, it is as likely going to be a product of what these guys do as it is what Alexander Ovechkin or Alexander Semin – guys with bulls eyes on their backs – do.

Those are the guys to watch and the guys who will come through tonight . . .

Caps 3 – Devils 2.

A Tale of Two Decembers...

Player 1:

0-2-2, even
12:50 average ice time
3 of 12 games with >50 percent faceoff wins
15 total shots on goal in 12 games

Player 2:

0-3-3, +6 (no "minus" games)
15:30 average ice time
6 of 12 games with 50 percent or better faceoff percentage
25 total shots on goal in 12 games

Player 1...Brian Sutherby
Player 2...Boyd Gordon

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Montreal

Bad habits . . .

They kind of creep up on you, and if you don’t notice them, they can be so much harder to change. In this case, eight goals against in the first period in the past two games . . . one goal for. Last night it was two for the visiting Montreal Canadiens and none for the home team. Having to claw out of a hole – a deep hole – starting early in games is not a consistent formula for success, and this is especially so with the Caps nursing a variety of illnesses and injuries.

The first period was good, bad, and unlucky. The good was the fact that the Caps got 14 shots on goal. The bad was that only three of them came from the reconstituted first line of Alexander Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Alexander Semin (more on that to come). The unlucky was the path of the puck on the first goal for the Habs, which managed not to hit any feet or skates from the left wing boards and the stick of Guillaume Latendresse to the far side of the crease and the stick of Mathieu Dandenault for a tap-in.

The Caps experimented with a super-line of Ovechkin and Semin, centered by Zubrus last night. That is the all-eggs-in-one-basket school of offense. Trouble is, it puts so much pressure on that line to score that there is a temptation to press even harder in the offensive end at the expense of defense. The line did get a late power play goal, but they were on the ice for two goals (one being the shorthanded empty netter by Sheldon Souray in the last minute). Was the experiment a failure? No, not necessarily . . . but no other line registered a point – that’s the other side of the experiment.

There is another number here that bears noting . . . 43.7. That is the Caps’ faceoff winning percentage over the last four games (1-3-0). They’ve been on the short end of the faceoff ledger in each of those games. The Caps have been outscored 16-8 in those four games. Coincidence? Perhaps, but puck possession is a critical element in the way the game is played these days. Lose a lot of faceoffs, and you spend a lot of time chasing the puck around. And, given the Caps health problems on defense these days, that’s not a good thing.

The Caps are half-way through their eight game holiday stretch outside the Southeast Division and have two points to show for the four games they’ve played. While they are ninth in the conference (tied with Boston in points for eighth, but with fewer wins) and two points out of sixth, they also are only four points ahead of 14th place Florida. This is a critical part of the schedule, coming as it does against fellow travelers in the Eastern Conference. A back-to-back road set against the Devils and Rangers, and back home to face Phoenix and Montreal could go a long way toward determining whether the Caps are contenders in the last half of the season, or pretenders.

And answering that question might start with the matter of those first period bad habits.