A NO...that's right, a NO point night...Lightning 5 -- Caps 2

3-10-1

Since the three-game winning streak to open the season, that’s the Caps’ record. Worse, that record includes a 1-5-0 record at home, that lone win being the 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on October 24^th that was avenged by the Lightning last night, 5-2.

It was the same old story for the Caps in this slide…a solid first period that was unrewarded on the scoreboard, followed by a sonambulistic second period, capped with equal parts poor judgment and a desperate – if futile – rush late in the third.

By the numbers…

-- Alexander Ovechkin is going to be dragging his tongue along the ice out of fatigue by Christmas. Last night, he not only logged almost 25 minutes in ice time (second to Tom Poti), 11 of his shifts ran past 60 seconds. For the high-octane style that Ovechkin plays, perhaps that wears on a guy. He’s 12^th in the league among forwards in ice time, but of those ahead of him, only Brad Richards has a longer average ice time-per-shift. Of course, with all that ice time, Ovechkin was all over the scoresheet – one goal, six shots, eight misfires (three blocked, five misses), two hits, two giveaways, a takeaway, and a couple of blocked shots. He did coast much in his time out there.

-- Speaking of Ovechkin, Caps games are starting to look a bit like “Win a Shift With Alex” contests…The Peerless tried to cobble together a shift chart out of those worthless “TOI Shift Reports” the NHL thinks is an improvement, and the outcome was pretty startling. Much as The Peerless likes the grit of Brooks Laich, that he’d be skating a regular shift on the right side of Ovechkin and Michael Nylander – as he did for much of the contest – had that “pick numbers out of a hat” quality to it. While there is a certain physical resemblance between Laich and Chris Clark, the resemblance doesn’t (or certainly didn’t last night) extend to production.

-- And why, pray tell, when the Caps were getting one (count it, one) man advantage opportunity in the third period, down two goals, was Donald Brashear getting a shift on the power play? On a team that could put Ovechkin, Viktor Kozlov, Michael Nylander, Tom Poti, Mike Green, Tomas Fleischmann, Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Pettinger, Brian Pothier, and maybe even David Steckel as a big guy who has scored some goals (at least in his AHL life), why is Brashear getting time as the nominal “guy in front creating traffic?” Look, Caps fans love Brashear – we do too – with good reason. But if that is the “man in front” option on this club with Chris Clark on the sidelines, then that isn’t Brashear’s problem (for being put in a position in which it would be difficult to succeed). That’s a problem that can be laid at the feet of guys who wear suits.

-- Back to that one (count it, one) man advantage in the third period. We get it…the Caps, even with Chris Clark, don’t have the sort of lineup that is going to make a living getting their noses dirty and batting in rebounds when they’re up a man. But this is a club with some high end talent and excellent puck handlers (passing?...club-wide, that’s another thing). But to draw only two penalties? Two?? OK, Tampa might be a disciplined team (fifth lowest in the league in power play chances yielded), but that’s not discipline, that’s putting whistles away. For long stretches, that game looked as if it could have been played in 2002, not 2007.

-- But let no one think for a moment that this game turned on what guys in striped shirts were doing. The Caps earned this loss. 29 turnovers (their giveaway’s and Tampa’s takeaways) to 14 by Tampa suggests a certain laziness with the puck. And familiarity might have played a role in one other respect, too. Tampa played eight games against the Caps last year and probably figured out that the defense wasn’t going to pose much of a threat on offense. Well, guess what…the Caps’ defensemen recorded two shots on goal (Brian Pothier, Milan Jurcina). As a result, the forwards had little room against the compacted Lightning defense, and only Ovechkin among them had more than three shots that found their way to the net. Even among attempted shots, Ovechkin – surprise, surprise – led the club with 14. Who was second?...Nicklas Backstrom, with five.

-- What perhaps has been most disappointing, numbers-wise, has been the gaping hole on the third line. The line that began the year – Matt Pettinger, Boyd Gordon, and Chris Clark – is 4-5-9 through 17 games. This is a trio that one hack thought could combine for 50 goals. They’re on a pace for 20 – combined. They, even with David Steckel sliding into Clark’s spot in many situations in the captain’s absence, have been very good in their own end (last night, though, was not one of those games). But they have to contribute something at the offensive end, too. It doesn’t have to be a lot, but with the parity that is emerging as a defining characteristic of this league, it might make the difference in five games – ten standings points – this year.

-- Between blogs and news reports on the Caps, one of the disconcerting trends mentioned so far this year has been to start well, then suffer a poor second period, leaving the boys in the difficult situation of having to press in the third. It is not an illusion. The Caps have held opponents even in the first period of games (0.82 goals for/0.82 goals against). But in the second period, that tilts to the opponent – 1.00 goals against versus 0.71 goals for. It gets better in the third, but the differential still favors the opposition, 0.94/0.82. Here is what that suggests to us…the Caps are very poor at making in-game adjustments. Last night, the Caps controlled play in the first period and outshot Tampa Bay 8-5. But in the second period, Tampa Bay made a line adjustment and started stretching the ice with passes. They ended up taking a lead (later tied by Ovechkin) and outshot the Capitals 18-6. If not for excellent play by Olaf Kolzig, that game would have been over at the 40-minute mark (lost in the result was that Kolzig stopped 23 of the first 24 shots he face, many of them in that second period of the high-quality variety)..

As you start to plan your menus and guest lists for Thanksgiving, here is a fact to chew on…since returning from the lockout, there have been 16 slots filled in the Eastern Conference for the playoffs. Of the teams occupying those 16 slots, 15 had records of .500 or better at Thanksgiving (Ottawa, at 10-11-1 last year, being the exception...the Caps, as if it needs explanation, are not Ottawa, last week's win notwithstanding). The Caps are 6-10-1 and have four games running up to the holiday. You can do the math.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, November 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps, proud holders of a one-in-a-row winning streak, take on the Tampa Bay Lighting in what promises to be a hard-fought contest played before a crowd of dozens at Verizon Center this evening. After disposing in shocking fashion the Ottawa Senators, 4-1, last Thursday, the Caps are set on making it two in a row. As the esteemed baseball manager, Lou Brown, once put it…”it has happened before.”

But today, we’re going to lift the tent flap on the prognosticator’s craft and let you, dear reader, get a peek at what goes into these gamely – if not gamey – prognostications…

First, we consult the ancient oracle, the fortune cookie…let’s see what we have…

-- crack --

“Please someone at work by remaining calm and impartial”

Hmm…sounds to me like something a referee might benefit from. And it’s a good thing, too. Tampa Bay is eighth in the league in power play success, converting 20.9 percent of their opportunities. Fortunately for the Caps, though, they don’t seem to get many opportunities…they are tied for 22^nd in total power play chances, and their road power play is sputtering along at 13.3 percent (also 22^nd).

OK…so what does our fortune teller have to say…let’s ask the wise oracle about what the Caps might do tonight…

Will the Caps score at least one goal?

"…yes"

Will the caps score at least two goals?

"…without a doubt"

Will the Caps score at least three goals?

"…it is best to wait and see"

Hmm…Will the Caps score at least four goals?

"…the outlook is good"

OK…will the Caps score at least five goals?

"…be careful, signs are ominous."

Let’s leave it at that…next on our journey of the occult prognosticatorial arts is a tarot reading…hmm, what question shall we ask…

Can the Caps reverse their recent fortunes by putting together a winning streak?

The middle card of the three fates says…”Reversal of a difficult situation. Gradual improvement. Encouraging news.”

Hey, this is what’s coming up…honest! Let’s try one for one of the players…from the I Ching…

Will Alex Ovechkin score a hat trick?

“Like the notes that come down from a bird on the wing, to descend is better than to ascend. There will, in this way, be great good fortune.”

So, if he comes flying down the wing, descending on the hapless Lightning goalie…well, you can take it from there, folks.

The fact is, even with the Caps winning on Thursday, they are in 15^th place in the Eastern Conference. There isn’t a 16^th place available. That being the case, tonight’s opponent might be just the tonic to put together a “streak.” Both teams have struggled recently (both are 3-6-1 in their last ten games), but for very different reasons. Tampa Bay has scored 28 goals in those ten games, which isn’t awful. They’ve given up 36, which pretty much is. Meanwhile, the Caps have allowed 26 goals, which isn’t awful. But they’ve scored 25, which…well, you get the point.

For the Lighting there are, of course, the big three of Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards. $19.9 million of cap space had better be producing, but for these three, it’s something of a mixed bag. In the last ten games, they are a combined 11-24-35, which isn’t awful…in fact, it’s pretty good. But they are also a combined -20, which…yeah, is awful.

But to this “big three” might be added Vaclav Prospal. He leads the Lightning in goals, with ten (and is 3-6-9 in his last ten games), and unlike his vastly higher-paid counterparts (Prospal is earning $1.9 million this year), he’s on the plus side of the ledger in his last ten at +1.

If there has been a surprise, if not a change in pattern, it is Shane O’Brien. He has four goals in the last ten games (a pair of two-goal efforts) to tie for second highest on the team in this stretch. But the defenseman is also a -7 over those same ten games.

Tampa Bay is a team that has struggled mightily at even strength lately. While outscoring opponents 8-7 on the power play over the last ten games, they have been outscored 29-19 at even strength (they also have a short-handed goal thrown in).

Goaltending, which has been and is likely to remain an issue with the Lightning this year, has improved in the last two games as Johan Holmqvist has given up only a single marker after three rather ghastly games in which he allowed 14 goals on 78 shots (.821 save percentage). One wonders which Holmqvist will show up tonight, assuming (as we do) that he will get the nod.

The Caps aren’t even in sight of the edge of the woods, let alone out of them. But a 4-1 win in Ottawa was swell to see. Even though Tampa Bay has two straight wins (including their first road win of the year – in Carolina) after going 0-5-1 in their previous six, this is as good a club as any for the Caps to cobble together a winning streak against. Like the Caps, they won their first three games of the season, then struggled before righting themselves earlier in the week. They have defense and goaltending concerns (top defenseman Dan Boyle has had some additional work done on his injured left wrist), and the Caps could use another breakout offensive game to build confidence.

So, we’ll return to our prognosti-tools one last time and consult the magic 8-ball…

Caps 4 – Lightning 2

The fashion choices are set...

...for the "AMP Energy NHL Winter Classic" (that's the outdoor game on New Year's Day).


Blue for the Penguins...blue on white for the Sabres. Excellent choice...it will match the skin color.

One of a kind...

Let me start by saying this…Sidney Crosby is a sublime hockey player, perhaps the best of this generation and with a plaque already waiting for him in the Hockey Hall of Fame.

But hey…you guys in NHL marketing…you folks over at Versus…we know you’re trying really hard, but maybe you’ve put too many eggs in one basket to sell this league.

Caps Chick notes in A View from the Cheap Seats a couple of snippets from the life that is Alexander Ovechkin’s, taken from a report in the Ottawa Sun…

“…[Ovechkin] took the time to go into the hallway - in his underwear - and read a couple of lines of 'Twas the Night Before Christmas for a feature TSN does each year. Alexander Ovechkin read the lines at least a half-dozen times, laughed while doing it and when he was thanked by Brent Wallace of TSN, replied ‘No problem.’ And you wonder what makes a guy a pro."

“[F]ormer NHLer Bob Probert was outside the Caps dressing room after the game. He introduced himself to Ovechkin. The star walked away and asked somebody, "Grobert? Who's Grobert?’”

If you go to the blog, Alexander Ovechkin, you’ll see that he is a quote machine, sure, but also that he is precisely the sort of infectious personality wrapped around world-class talent that this league desperately needs to sell its product.

As we suggested, Sidney Crosby sits at the top of the heap – talent-wise – in this league. As a hockey fan, I love watching the kid play. But he has the personality, at least for public consumption, of oatmeal that’s been sitting on the kitchen table for a while. I can’t fault Crosby for that. By any measure, he is a community-oriented, earnest, humble, personable sort…at least from any report of him I read. He is a fine young man, certainly mature beyond his years in dealing with the pressure and the spotlight. And perhaps the combination of his youth and the spotlight always being on him lends to a preference for care in the manner in which he presents himself to the public. But for whatever reason, there seems to be this wall around him, which leaves him like a talent in a glass case – there for the watching, but not much else.

On the other hand, there is Ovechkin, whose improving English, natural effervescence, and timing make him not only quotable, but magnetic. His quotes aren’t the edgy sort that made Brett Hull a favorite of journalists, and he doesn’t seem to be the more “look at me” sort that too often seemed to characterize Jeremy Roenick’s public image. His are more of the entertaining "did he really say that?" variety that leaves folks alternately smiling and scratching their head.

Ovechkin is one of a kind. There is the “twinkle in his eye” image that surrounds his game and off-ice antics that stands in stark relief to the cold “eye of the shark” image in Crosby’s game and persona.

While there are a lot of fine youngsters in the league -- the brothers Staal (Eric and Jordan, with perhaps more to come), Paul Stastny, Ryan Getzlaf, Evgeni Malkin, Anze Kopitar, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, to name but a few -- who will be competing for trophies and press accolades, Ovechkin and Crosby are at the front of the line and very well could be for years to come.

If these guys were TV shows, Ovechkin would be the classic comedy -- well done, with good humor and a message (that being, I’m a pretty good hockey player). Crosby would be an episode from Masterpiece Theater – artfully done but often just a bit cold and distant. One might be technically “better” than the other, but this isn’t a technical issue. Which would you rather watch with a bunch of friends?

Just a thought...

Was it the speech?


And The Peerless has to doff the prognosticatorial cap to the folks at Off Wing Opinion, who have been kind enough to recognize our work quite a bit these days in their blogging roundups. Thanks, guys...

A TWO point night: Caps 4 - Senators 1

You might want to stake out your places on the parade route, now, Caps fans.

OK, that’s The Peerless’ snarky moment, but doesn’t winning beat the ever livin’ crap out of losing? Of course it does, and a 4-1 win over the heretofore 8-0 in their last eight games Ottawa Senators – on their ice, no less – is even better (OK, we know, doing it to the Penguins would top this).

So, how’d they do it?

Pretty simple, they scored more goals.

Actually, there is a story in that, too. This might have been a coming-out party for a couple of kids. We must guard against getting carried away, but after the common sight of an Alexander Ovechkin goal – one that cemented the win with less than four minutes left in the contest – having both Tomas Fleischmann and Nicklas Backstrom score goals in the same game is a breath of fresh air.

The game certainly had its moments, though, when Caps fans might have slumped in their chairs and muttered, “here we go again”…like right off the opening faceoff when the Senators broke behind the Caps’ defense, Patrick Eaves setting up Chris Kelly in alone on Kolzig. Eight seconds in, Kolzig might have saved not just Kelly’s backhand but the game as well. If Ottawa scores there, then it might have been the Caps slumping, not just their fans.

Kelly was there at Kolzig’s doorstep again six minutes later, splitting Shaone Morrisonn and Milan Jurcina off a stretch pass…Kolzig made that save, too…

But Kolzig made those saves, and the Caps did to the Senators what a lot of teams have done to the Caps this year…they hung around. Playing the home team even past the halfway point of the game, Viktor Kozlov won a battle for the puck along the boards, spun between Wade Redden and Randy Robitaille, and stepped to the net to slip the puck past goalie Ray Emery.

Then the kids took over…Nicklas Backstrom got what would be the game-winning goal barely two minutes later when Kozlov walked the goal line to Emery’s left on a power play. Faking a move to come out on Emery’s glove side, he dipped around the net and fed the puck to Backstrom, camped at the top of the crease. One swat later – and getting knocked over in the process -- Backstrom was celebrating his first NHL goal from the seat of his pants.

Then it was Fleischmann barely three minutes after that, taking a nice blue line-to-blue line feed in stride from Kozlov, skating in on the right side, and firing the puck far side over Emery’s leg pad. Three goals in 5:45…it was positively Senatorial, so to speak. A minute later, the Senators reminded everyone why they had that eight-game winning streak with a snappy “give-and-get-go” from Daniel Alfredsson to Dany Heatley to Mike Fisher and back to Alfredsson for the easy lay-up. That could have been the start of a dam-break, but Kolzig and the Caps skated out the third period without further damage and added the Ovechkin clincher for their first two point night in ten days.

In every respect, this was the photo-negative of the games the Caps played on their four game losing streak…

-- They had 35 shots on goal, but only 13 of them blocked. That is the latest in a downward trend in that statistic since having 30 shots blocked against the Rangers (30-25-20-13-13). Getting shots off isn’t quite the same as getting shots to the net. Parenthetically, Ottawa’s Anton “Hakeem Olajuwon” Volchenkov had…one. Of course, he only played four minutes, leaving early-on with a bruised hip, but still…

-- Their 20 misfires (13 shots blocked and seven misses) was barely half of those put up by Ottawa (35: 14 shots blocked, 21 misses)

-- Ottawa got off fast with the breakaways in the first seven minutes, but failed to capitalize…it was the Caps who would weather than storm and post the first goal.

-- The Capitals took frequent penalties (three in the space of 3:22 in the second period) and didn’t allow a power play goal, including killing off 1:04 of a 5-on-3.

-- The Caps had 13 power play shots (on six man-advantages) from eight different players. Although the Caps scored only the Backstrom power play goal, that kind of production will be rewarded in more games than not.

-- Conversely, they held the Senators to seven shots on five power plays, four of them coming from Alfredsson.

-- Although Ovechkin dominated the shot chart, at least he had help…Fleischmann had six shots, himself, and Kozlov had four. Combined, they had 20 shots and only seven misfires (three blocked, four misses). Not coincidentally, perhaps, each had a goal. Motto – shoot the puck…intelligently (that is, get it to the net)

It’s worthy of mention that the Caps came into this game on a losing streak, skated in a difficult arena where they haven’t had a lot of success, did it against a club that was steamrolling the rest of the league (outscoring their opponents 30-13 on their eight-game winning streak), still missing their captain and second-leading goal scorer from a year ago (a combined 68 goals from 2006-2007), and…won.

The first star might have gone to Viktor Kozlov, the big saves might have been made by Olaf Kolzig, and Alex Ovechkin might have had another multi-point night, but in a way, this one belonged to a couple of kids who needed a breakthrough kind of game. For Nicklas Backstrom and Tomas Fleischmann, it might be just a nice game in a long season, but then again, it might be the signal that they’re arriving.

The Peerless knows it’s against Caps fans’ nature to think otherwise, but at least until Saturday night, let’s think of it as the latter.

Nice game, boys.

Who knew?...

"The last time we had eight defensemen who could play, we went to the finals."

-- George McPhee, making a point in this morning's Washington Times upon the return of Steve Eminger and stating that the defenseman wouldn't be traded.

So that's all the Caps needed?

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Senators, November 8th

Sometimes, a prognostication doesn't do it...from time to time, we feel the need to invoke the General to inspire the troops...





Had the General marched into the Capitals' locker room, he might have amended his words along the following lines...

Now, I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a hockey game by taking a penalty for his team. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard take a penalty for his team. Men, all this stuff you’ve heard about the Caps not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the contest, is a lot of horse dung. Caps traditionally love to fight. All real Caps love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer. Caps fans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Caps play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost...and laughed. That’s why Caps have never lost and will never lose a game. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Capitals.

Now... hockey club is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, checks as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The bilious bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for ESPN don’t know anything more about real hockey games than they do about fornicating.

We have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. You know, by God I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to check the bastards, we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to tape the blades of our sticks. We’re going to hit those lousy Senator bastards by the bushel.

Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Senators are the enemy. Wade into them. Spill their blood. Check them into the boards. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do.

Now there’s another thing I want you to remember. I don’t want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let Ottawa do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks you what did you do in the great National Hockey League, you won’t have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in DC."

Alright now, you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel. Oh...and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle – anytime, anywhere.

That’s all.

Caps 5 - Senators 4.

It went to...overtime?

Was it really that close? Absent a television feed, it was hard to know...

It is either a measure of just how bad Atlanta is, or how tenacious the Caps were to stay in it (after their all-too-patterned “hot start, followed by nap time” style), but the numbers in the 2-1 overtime loss to the Thrashers don’t tell a pretty story for the Caps…

Blocked shots. Once more, the Caps registered double digits in attempts blocked – 13 (Atlanta had only four attempts blocked). That’s actually an improvement; since registering 30 of that specie against the Rangers, they have gone 25-20-13. Hey, it’s progress, but here is the comparison to watch as the Caps travel to Ottawa on Thursday. Anton Volchenkov (surprise, surprise) leads the NHL in blocked shots with 66. Alexander Ovechkin has had 57 shots blocked thus far. Tomorrow night, Volchenkov might get 20 himself.

Turnovers. The Caps lost this battle, 23-16. Atlanta had 16 takeaways to eight for the Caps. Guess they just wanted the puck more.

Faceoffs. The Caps – seventh in the league, even after last night’s game – lost that battle 28-21 to a club that this morning still finds itself 22nd in the league. Guess Atlanta just wanted the puck more…well, Bobby Holik, anyway. He accounted for the entire difference, going 15-7 in draws.

Hits. OK, we’ve been here before – it’s a subjective measure. But the Caps had nine to the Thrashers’ 13. Who led the Caps?...the new kid, Chris Bourque…he had two. That’s not his problem, that’s everyone else’s.

How did this game go to overtime? Well, if Ilya Kovalchuk plays more than 9:02 (having departed with back spasms), chances are, it wouldn’t, despite what seemed to be a fine effort on the part of Caps goalie Brent Johnson. But looking at the numbers (and as JP suggests over at Japers’ Rink, Alex Ovechkin’s were among the worst you’re likely to see from him), it seemed to be the tale of a bad team against a frustrated one.

Just so we're clear, the bad team won.

One point is better than none, and about the best that can be said for it is that it slows the bleeding. But to the folks at the NHL and Versus…thank you for that exclusivity deal on telecasts. The Peerless might have removed his eyes with a grapefruit spoon had he watched this one.

What's that? Uh -- Playoffs?...

...don't talk about -- playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!"

So goes the famous quote, delivered in a high-pitched, whiny voice by Jim Mora, then coach of the NFL's Indianapolis Colts, after a loss to the San Francisco 49ers in 2001.

So, we'll talk about playoffs.

After the Hurricanes game, we noted that no Caps team had ever lost ten of their first 15 games and made the playoffs. Last night, the Caps avoided by the blade of their skatey-skate-skates having tumbled into that ditch, losing 2-1 to the Atlanta Thrashers in overtime to finish their first 15 games 5-9-1.

Truth be told, the Caps have made the playoffs with as bad a record or worse in their first 15 games. In 1994-1995, they made the playoffs with a 3-9-3 record (nine points) in their first 15, and in 2000-2001 they did it with a record of 3-7-4-1 (11 points). In fact, of the 18 times the Caps have made the playoffs, they did so having endured a sub-.500 record in their first 15 games nine times.

But here is the hole they’ve dug for themselves – if 92 points is the threshold for the playoffs this year (it was in the East last year), then the Caps would have to play ten games above .500 for the season. Right now, they are four games under. So, over the last 67 games, they have to play 14 games over .500 to make the dance. If they were to match the eighth-place record of the Islanders of last year (40-30-12), that would mean going 35-21-11.

Do the Caps have it in them?

Elmer?

Be vewwy vewwy quiet....


...we're hunting Capitals.....huhuhuhuhuhuh.

Hey, when things are not going well, it helps to have a sense of humor about it. But it does beg the question...

Chris Clark...check
Matt Pettinger...check

Who, pray tell, is going to be next?!

Give that man a sweater!!!

Some facts about Steve Eminger this season

-- Steve Eminger has not been on the ice for a goal scored aganst this season.

-- The Caps have not lost a game in which Eminger has appeared.

-- He is "even" for the season, which places him tied for third among Caps defensemen.

-- He has as many power play goals as Alexander Semin.

-- He has as many power play assists as Matt Pettinger.

-- He has as many game-winning goals as Michael Nylander.

-- His shooting percentage is equal to that of Nicklas Backstrom.

-- He has as many blocked shots as Tomas Fleischmann.

-- He is tied (with Brian Sutherby) for fewest giveaways on the team.

-- Only Joe Motzko has as few missed shots.

The solution is as plain as an Alex Ovechkin slap shot to the side of the head...

Give that man a sweater!!!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs.Thrashers, November 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Folks, desperate times call for desperate measures, and The Peerless is calling on his kin to lend a hand in finding a silver lining in this big honkin’ cloud that has settled over the Capitals. So with that, we’ve invited my two cousins, Fearless Prognosticator and Cheerless Prognosticator to sit in and lend their able skills to the proceedings…




(not a family portrait...but close)






Fearless, Cheerless…glad you could make it.

Fearless Prognosticator: “Glad to come to a cousin in need…”

Cheerless Prognosticator: “Oh, what for…I could be sleeping, and besides, it’s raining out.”

Well, I see Uncle Beerless (he’s a teetotaler) named you guys right. So, the Caps are sitting at 5-9-0 and head into Atlanta tonight to play the Thrashers. What do you guys know about them?

CP: “I know they’ve got a better record than the Caps…”

FP: “Now, Cheerless, you know they don’t…they have the same record.”

CP: “Well, it just seems like they’re better…at least they’re .500 in their last ten games (5-5-0).”

Guys, could we?...what accounts for this “mini-resurgence” on the part of the Thrashers?

FP: “Ilya Kovalchuk…he’s 11-7-18 in those ten games, and he was ‘first star of the week’ in the NHL last week.”

CP: “Yeah, but he’s only ‘even’ in those games.”

Well, he’s not out there to be a shutdown forward. He’s also got that 17-20-37 in 31 career games against the Caps…and +14.

CP: “…yeah, and he’s -75 against the rest of the league combined for his career.”

Boy, you’re just a font of negative statistics for everyone this morning, aren’t you?

CP: “Hey, that’s why Daddy named me, ‘Cheerless,’ big shot.”

So, who else do we watch for tonight?

FP: “Well, Eric Perrin is 3-5-8 over his last eight games after being held scoreless in his first six this year, and Marian Hossa is 21-23-44 in 39 career games against the Caps.”

CP: “Yeah, well, with the way the Caps are going, that AHL-wonder they’ve got will probably get a hat trick.”

You mean, Darren Haydar, Cheerless?...Yeah, he’s had quite a time in the minors – an even 100 goals over his last three seasons down there. He’s got exactly one NHL goal in his career.

CP: “Yeah, maybe he should be named, ‘Darren Fleischmann.’”

Hey!...OK, so Kari Lehtonen has the dreaded “groin injury”…who gets the nod if he can’t go?

CP: “Moosehead…”

FP: “Yeah, Johan Hedberg would seem to be the pick. He doesn’t have outstanding numbers against the Caps in his career – 2.84 GAA and a .904 save percentage – but he wins…5-2-2 lifetime.”

What about the team as a whole…the Thrashers are on a bit of a run, aren’t they?

FP: “You bet…since that 0-6-0 start, they’re 5-3, including a couple of shootout wins. And, after scoring only nine goals in those six games to start the year, they have 26 in their last eight.”

CP: “That’d be a month’s worth for the Caps right now.”

Geez, Cheerless, you are in fine form this morning…

FP: “Daddy says there’s nothing wrong with him that a good dose of fiber won’t cure.”

Uh…let’s wait ‘til later on that one, OK? What about their defense?

FP: “If the Caps can’t score on this bunch, they might as well mail in the rest of the season…4.07 goals-against per game. That’s dead last in the league, and they’ve given up five or more goals five times. They’ve only held opponents under three goals twice.”

Has that improved with the change in coaches?

FP: “A little…they’ve given up 30 goals in their last eight games. But they still struggle in their own end of the ice.”

That bad, eh?

FP: "And it’s not like it matters if they’re at even strength or killing penalties…27th in 5-on5 efficiency, 30th in penalty killing. It’s no surprise that they’re 29th in shots allowed…it’s a shooting gallery against the Thrasher goaltenders…like I said, if the Caps can’t score against this bunch…”

I think I see your point…so, who wins tonight?

FP: "Well, the Caps are desperate…it’s about time they started playing like it. And this is the team to do it against. It’ll be close, since the Thrashers have found their legs in the offensive end, too. The key might be Brent Johnson…he’s 7-2-0-1, 2.36, .916 in ten career games against Atlanta. If he can keep the Caps in it early and let the boys get some confidence, it’ll be a successful night."

Well, I’d have to agree…tonight the Caps avoid becoming the second team to ten losses this season, letting the Thrashers claim that dubious honor…

Caps 4 – Thrashers 3

CP: “…yeah, but they’ll need overtime.”

A NO point night -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 5th

Carolina 5 - Washington 0...

There is nothing to take away from this game, and that being the case, The Peerless really doesn’t have much to say about it, other than from the drop of the puck, the Caps looked as clueless about what was going on around them as any Caps team we’ve seen, well, maybe ever.

And you know what?...I don’t think that one’s on the players.

There really isn’t anything in the numbers worth pondering, the competitive portion of the game being so short (8:32 – the time it took for Cory Stillman to score a hat trick, on the only three shots of the game that he took). Everything that followed was window dressing.

Here is your stat to take to bed with you in anticipation of tomorrow’s game in Atlanta…the Caps have made the playoffs 18 times. In none of those years did they have ten losses in their first 15 games…

…none.

Sweet dreams, Caps fans.

Anatomy of a Mugging

Any wonder how the Hurricanes got out to a 3-0 start against the Caps tonight?...

Check the shot graph* (that's the Caps on the left). The Caps bombed away from outside with 19 shots, accomplishing no more than to bruise Cam Ward's sternum...the 'Canes had ten shots....with three layups among them.

* shot graph at sportsline.com

While We're At It...Attendance

While we're looking at the first 13 games, as in the last entry, let's look at something else...attendance. The Peerless will wager that pretty soon, we're going to see someone mention that attendance is up over last year, and in fact, it is. As you will see from the table below, attendance through six home games is up 1,543/game over the six-game average last year. That's a 12 percent increase for those of you scoring at home...a good thing.


But if you look a little closer, there is the suggestion of a problem that hasn't gone away (we must caution that there aren't very many events to analyze here, so beware of drawing too firm a conclusion). There are two very clean comparisons in which one might have interest with respect to these numbers, and they speak to rivalries. There is the "new rivalry" group that is comprised of the Southeast Division opponents. Then there is the "old rivalry" group comprised of the old Patrick Division opponents. If you look at the three years since the lockout, they breakdown as follows:

2005-2006:

Southeast: 12,132
Patrick: 10,577

In this set, all three SE games were played on weekends (including a Friday night game), and both Patrick games were played on weekdays, including a Columbus Day game

2006-2007:

Southeast: 12,891
Patrick: no events

The Caps opened the season with five straight games against SE opponents, four of them weekend night games.

2007-2008:

Southeast: 13,469
Patrick: 15,123

What is notable here is that two of the three Patrick games were held on weekends and included a sellout (Pittsburgh) and the third highest attended game in the six held so far (the opener against Carolina was the second-highest).


We do not cite these numbers to state one way or another if Caps attendance is trending upward, downward, or hovering around a constant figure. There isn't enough information to reach any such conclusions. What we do wish to do, though, is get the reader to thinking...can the Caps make a go of it -- rivalry-wise -- against Southeast Division opponents? Or, do the longer distances between cities and the lack of playoff history among the clubs argue for continued struggles at the gate against these teams? Given that the Caps play 16 of 41 home games against these opponents, which question gets answered in the affirmative will go a long way to determining whether the early attendance gains can be sustained or built upon.

Lucky 13...

No, it’s not a plug for a Don Cherry video, it’s a look at the Caps after 13 games…that’s more than 15 percent of the season, and this year the Caps have five wins in those 13 games.

Not too lucky, if you ask The Peerless.

They had five wins in the first 13 games last year, too. But in doing so, they were 5-4-4 for 14 points. This year, all the losses are in regulation, leaving the Caps with ten points and gasping for air.

In what other respects has the Caps’ performance changed over a year ago? Well, the Peerless has a look…

Goals For/Goals Against (real goals, not that shootout crap):

2006-2007: 43/42
2007-2008: 33/35

That’s a 16.7 percent improvement in goals allowed. Given the consensus among observers of the Caps coming into the season – that they would struggle in that regard, the defense still being quite green – that is a major plus. But a 23.3 percent drop-off in goals scored...that was not part of the plan, not with Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin being joined by Viktor Kozlov, Michael Nylander, and Tom Poti. Of course, sustaining 14 man-games lost to injuries hitting Semin and Poti wasn’t in the plan, either.

Shots-per-Game/Shots Against-per-Game:

2006-2007: 27.8/36.5
2007-2008: 28.2/29.5

That seven shot-per-game improvement in shots allowed is important. Consider that in the context of Olaf Kolzig’s performance so far. His save percentage is .920. If he was to save that percentage of the extra shots he would face if the Caps were giving up 36.5 shots per game, it would mean an extra half-goal per game added to his goals against average, and the Caps would be far worse off than they are at the moment. You get the feeling that defense, generally speaking, is not the Caps’ problem.

Power Play:

2006-2007: 15.9 percent (11-for-69)
2007-2008: 16.1 percent (10-for-62)

Penalty Killing:

2006-2007: 83.1 percent (64-for-77)
2007-2008: 80.6 percent (54-for-67)

Taken together, the special teams are a mixed bag. The Caps’ have sustained fewer man-short situations so far this year – a good thing – but that’s a function of how they play outside the penalty killing situation itself. As we noted in the game-day post, the magic number there is five. If they give up fewer than five power play chances, they’re successful…4-1-0 this year when doing so, 1-7-0 when they don’t. The power play is marginally better, but they have been particularly successful in drawing penalties. One might think that if they had the puck more often, and infractions are more commonly called in the defensive end of the ice, then the Caps would do better in this regard. Thus far, it’s been a disappointment, both in the frequency of power plays and their success rate. Missing Alexander Semin is a consideration regarding the latter, but as to the former, that will bear watching.

Shots Attempted For-per-Game/Shots Attempted Against-per-Game:

2006-2007: 55.2/65.5
2007-2008: 57.2/50.1

That the Caps are “out-attempting” opponents this year is a good thing. But a problem lies buried in those “for” numbers. Shots missed and shots blocked are both up. That the Caps would have 43 percent of the shots they took in the last two games blocked in unsettling. Perhaps more indicative of the difference between this year and last in terms of style is the difference in the number of shots the Caps have blocked. Last year through 13 games, the Caps blocked an average of 16.2 shots a game…this year, 10.9. Last year by this time, the Caps had eight games in which they’d blocked at least 15 shots…this year, once. It is only one indicator, but perhaps one worth noting of either paying the price in the defensive end, or just not having the skill to succeed at this facet of the game. Not everyone can be Anton Volchenkov.

Hits For-per-Game/Hits Against-per-Game:

2006-2007: 18.2/16.3
2007-2008: 21.2/20.2

“Hits” is a rather subjective measure, but at the moment, Milan Jurcina is more than a third of the way to his total of last year (35/103), and John Erskine is almost half-way to his total (25/52). Here’s the thing…the Caps are 3-5 this year when “outhitting” their opponent, 2-3 when they don’t. Draw your own conclusions.

Turnover Ratio:

2006-2007: 0.86
2007-2008: 0.92

The ratio is computed as:

(Caps takeaways + Opponents giveaways) / (Caps giveaways + Opponents takeaways)

That the ratio is better this year is an improvement, but given that this club is banking much of its success on the ability to maintain possession of the puck, turning it over more than your getting it turned over indicates that there is some work yet to be done in this area. Most troubling, the top four Caps in terms of giveaways so far this year are defensemen – Jurcina, Brian Pothier, Mike Green, and Shaone Morrisonn. Green and Morrisonn appear to be on approximately last year’s pace in that regard (although Green is getting more ice time than last year). Jurcina’s pace is substantially higher than last year, and when accounting for Pothier’s fewer minutes (five a game at this point), his pace is higher, too.

Faceoffs won:

2006-2007: 49.7 percent
2007-2008: 52.8 percent

This is a substantial improvement over the same point a year ago and is an important ingredient to the puck-possession game the Caps want to play. But it is not the be-all and end-all ingredient. The Caps have been 50-percent-or-better in 10 of 13 games this year. They are 4-6-0 in those games.

So, there it is, a thumbnail sketch comparing this year to last by the numbers. By most measures, the Caps are better, and that is an encouraging sign. The problem – predictable at this stage of the season from The Peerless’ chair, has been the offense – the Caps just haven’t yet been able to score goals consistently on a game-to-game basis. The thought here has been that a slow start offensively would give way as new players become accustomed with their new teammates. That might take, oh, 15 games or so. We’re getting to the end of that, and the situation is one of growing concern. The Caps are 14^th in the Eastern Conference this morning -- tied with Atlanta but with a game in hand. That is a lot of teams to hurdle, and some of them – the Lightning, Devils, and Sabres among them – would be expected to be climbing out of their own doldrums, too. Like we said in another entry, “start’s over.”

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And the Capitals are set to take on Carolina in the front end of a three-game road trip. Hurricane season might be over, but the Hurricanes are blowin’ pretty strong down here. And who better to get the latest on the Hurricanes from than hurricane expert and hockey fan, Remy Day.

Rainy…we’re glad you could join us…

“Remy…it’s Remy…Ray-Mee…why does everyone call me ‘Rainy?’”

Just a weather joke to break the ice…

“So, you’re a comedian AND a prognosticator?...what, you don’t have a day job??”

That’s a pretty stormy attitude…

“Can we PLEASE knock off the weather jokes?”

OK, so…the Hurricanes. You’ve been tracking them all season…

“…ugh…”

Why are they off to such a scorching start?

“Well, leading the league in scoring with 3.79 goals a game doesn’t hurt, and they’re even a little better at home with 3.83 a game. And, they’re really dominating at even strength. They lead the league in 5-on-5 efficiency. They’ve scored more than twice as many goals at 5-on-5 than they’ve allowed – the only team in the league that can say that.”

How are their special teams?

“Hot and cold….geez, now you have me doing it.”

Give in to it…you know you want to…

“The power play is hotter than Phoenix in July….24.7 percent success is second in the league.”

What do you attribute that to?

“Global warming…no, seriously, they really spread things around…nine guys have power play goals so far…”

Geez, the Caps only have five with goals, and only two with more than one.

“That’s right…the Hurricanes have 19 power play goals to ten for your guys…if the Caps are short handed…scoring warnings will be posted up and down the Eastern Seaboard.”

You said they were hot and cold on special teams…

“Yeah, well…the penalty kill is colder than International Falls in January…73.2 percent success is 28^th in the league…worse than the Caps, if you can believe that. If you compare the two special team squads, it’s almost a wash…”

What do you mean?

“The Hurricanes have scored those 19 power play goals, but they’ve given up…yup…19 power play goals, and they’ve given up a shorty, too.”

Who should we be watching for the Hurricanes, tonight?

“Well, Rod Brind’Amour, of course. Not only is he a Cap-killer – he’s 36-38-74 in 87 career games against the Caps – he’s 5-4-9, +5 in his last five games…and there’s Justin Williams…he always seems to find a way to get onto the scoresheet against the Caps, 13-16-29 in 32 games against Washington.”

The Hurricanes have scored 27 goals in those last five games…who else is coming in hot?

“Matt Cullen is 1-7-8, and Eric Staal is 3-4-7. But one of the most underrated guys in the league – Ray Whitney – is coming in 5-3-8, +4 in his last five games. The big guys are all on a hot streak right now.”

Well, Rainy…

“Remy…RAY-mee…it that so hard?”

Remy…it’s always a surge of excitement when you stop by…

“yeah…it’s been a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale for me, too.”

As for the Caps, this probably isn’t the sort of game they’d have picked to start a road trip…or maybe it is. They shut out the Hurricanes in their only meeting so far this year, they generally play Carolina even in Raleigh (3-4-1 in their last eight games there), Olaf Kolzig has had a large measure of success against the Hurricanes over his career – 25-11-8-1, 2.16, .926.

If you’re looking for hot Caps, Alex Ovechkin is always the place to start the search. He’s been hot, and he has had success against this club. He’s 11-8-19 in 17 career games against Carolina, and he comes in to tonight’s contest 4-3-7 in his last five games. You’d also think Michael Nylander would be a guy to watch…9-14-23 in 25 games against Carolina, and he’s 2-5-7 in his last five. The problem for the Caps will be the players likely to be out for this one…Chris Clark is 8-6-14 in 19 career games against the Hurricanes, and Alexander Semin is 8-7-16 in 14 career games against Carolina. If you’re looking for perhaps an odd player to crack the scoresheet for the Caps tonight, watch for Donald Brashear…he’s 2-7-9 in 40 career games against Carolina.

Tonight, though, the magic number for the Caps is this…five.

The Caps are 4-1-0 when allowing the opponent fewer than five power play opportunities (killing 94.4 percent of their shorthanded situations in such games). They are 1-7-0 when giving up five or more (killing 75.5 percent). The Caps would still have to contend with Carolina’s formidable even-strength record of success so far this year, but they can’t make it easier for the Hurricanes by chasing them around killing penalties all night, either.

So…can the Caps play a disciplined game and escape with a win? Well, the Caps have been shorthanded five or more times in 15 of the last 17 games played against Carolina. But, they were only on the short end three times the last time these two teams met, and the result was a 2-0 shutout (the only time the Hurricanes have been shut out this year). It’s certainly in them to do it.

And do it they will…a combination of that and Kolzig’s history of success here will (as you’ve probably guessed) result in a close win for the Caps…

Caps 3 – Hurricanes 2.

It ain't working...

The Peerless isn't much on the concept of "lines," as they are commonly known. But he does pay attention to pairs, and there is something troubling afoot with the Caps. We are led to believe -- and we agree -- that "chemistry" is an important ingredient in the recipe for success. Further, the notion since training camp has been that "chemistry" between Alex Ovechkin and Viktor Kozlov, and between Michael Nylander and Nicklas Backstrom would permit the Caps to get off quickly.

Well, that was the hope...

Alex Ovechkin has nine goals on the season. And of these, how many primary assists have gone to Kozlov?...two. You know who also has two?...Michael Nylander, and he does not play on Ovechkin's line at even strength, for the most part. Both Kozlov and Nylander have had a total of three assists on Ovechkin goals. In the last ten games, only one of these two have had the primary assist on the other's goal -- Kozlov, on Ovechkin's first goal in the 7-1 win against Toronto.

Now, as to the matter of Nylander and Backstrom...Nylander has four goals this year. On how many has Backstrom provided the primary assist?...two, but none since game 5 (we completed game 13 last night, and the Caps are 2-6 in that stretch since the last Nylander/Backstrom success). Backstrom is yet without a goal.

Loathe as we are to don a coaching cap -- it just doesn't fit -- something isn't working here. We're wondering...when Alexander Semin comes back (assuming it isn't delayed until after Thanksgiving), the grand experiment of Ovechkin-Kozlov and Nylander-Backstrom might be better set aside in favor of moving Nylander to the top line to center Ovechkin and Clark, and moving Kozlov back to the second line to center (or play on the wing) with Backstrom and Semin.

The Caps are tied for 20th in the league in scoring at 2.54 goals-per-game. If the Toronto game really was the aberration folks are coming around to think, they're averaging 2.17 goals a game. The Caps' defense is improved (they've given up more than three goals only three times in 13 games), but not so much as to make anyone think that scoring two-goals a game is going to make for a winning season.

There is a fine line between patience and stubbornness...we might be there with respect to who plays with whom.

A NO point night...again - Caps vs. Flyers, November 2nd

OK Caps fans, you can be concerned, now.

Not worried, not panicked…concerned. With the 3-2 loss to the Flyers last night, reality came a’calling. First, last year’s 4-0-0 record against the Flyers won’t be repeated. That’s not a good sign. It’s not that the Flyers are that good – frankly, they didn’t play very well last night – but they are tenacious, certainly more than what the Caps showed last night. It's another team with which the Caps must legitimately contend in that fight for a playoff spot.

Truth be told, the Caps played about 17 minutes of hockey last night. They outshot the Flyers 14-3 in the first 17 minutes, controlled the puck for long stretches, made the Flyers chase them around the rink, and had a 1-0 lead…then…pfft.

Over the last 43 minutes, the Caps were outshot 26-12, outhit, outworked, and outscored 3-1. But for the usual late goal to make a game closer than it looked (the Caps have had several of those so far this year to pile up one-goal losses), the Caps looked for all the world as if the game was more a skate-around.

Visually, the Flyers looked to get to every loose puck, win every battle along the boards, and do all the little things a club needs to do to win. From the numbers, the Caps once more had a ton of shots blocked – 25 – and it’s getting to be a worn out theme…either the Caps aren’t doing all they need to do to create shooting lanes, or they are showing poor judgment in launching shots with defenders right on top of them.

Even the faceoffs…while the scoresheet will show that the teams split 58 draws evenly, it just seemed as if the puck always ended up on a Flyer stick after a draw, especially after that first 17 minutes.

The Caps were credited with 26 shots on goal, but we’d wager that none of them was a follow up on a rebound. Despite mishandling shots all night and leaving more rubber in the crease than Goodyear stocks in its tire stores, Antero Niitymaki was allowed an oasis of calm around him to collect the loose change. No Cap was within a stick’s distance of loose pucks in close all night. Not every goal can be of the highlight reel variety. Sometimes, you have to score ugly. Right now, the Caps are just playing ugly.

But at the moment, with Chris Clark and his grit on the bench and Alexander Semin with his effective shot on the bench, where are those ugly goals coming from? Flukes don’t count (ok, they do), and Tomas Fleischmann’s goal last night had to qualify as such. Granted, Fleischmann made for himself an opportunity by getting to the net (it is permitted in the rules), but a centering feed by Michael Nylander that was deflected into the air by Nicklas Backstrom that appeared to be going wide, which was then bunted home by Fleischmann is something we gather wasn’t drawn up on any white board.

The rest of the night, the Caps were pushed to the outside and pushed around by the Flyers. That said, Brooks Laich and Brian Sutherby get full marks for having taken enough of the Flyers’ crap and doing something about it, Laich winning a close decision in his bout with Mike Richards, and Sutherby holding Ben Eager to a draw. Matt Pettinger looked more than willing to go, too, with Joffrey Lupul (did you know his name is an anagram for “puff your jell?”…we’ll let you ponder that). Those might have been the sparks that would have increased the urgency with which the Caps played, but urgency hasn’t been a part of the Caps’ repertoire for most games in the last few weeks, and they have been all "smooth, rounded corners"...there is no edge to their game. Worse, the Caps managed to take four minor penalties (including a double minor to Brian Pothier) in a span of 8:32 spanning the end of the second period and the beginning of the third. The Flyers used the product of that dubious judgment to register a power play insurance goal that they needed late, when Alex Ovechkin scored his required goal against the Flyers (that’s eight games in a row).

There isn’t any easy way to put this. The Caps should have won this game. One can speak of frustration and pucks not finding their way to the back of the net, but it wasn’t as if the Caps made life difficult for Niitymaki last night, either. There were enough rebounds and dribbling pucks lying around the crease that were there for the taking. The Caps didn’t take advantage of any of them.

There is another very disturbing trend, too. The Caps are 2-4-0 at home. And, except for a five-goal “explosion” against the goaltending-challenged Lightning, the Caps have scored nine goals in the other five games, four of them losses. If that is the pattern that is unfolding, then we can dispel any further talk of playoffs. It ain’t gonna happen.

OK…now that we’ve vented our spleen (does anyone even vent a spleen anymore?), the fact is that the situation isn’t yet of the “dire” variety. Last year in their 13^th game (coincidentally, against the Flyers), the Caps won in Philadelphia, 5-3, to reach a record of 5-4-4. They did so on their way to a 15-10-7 start. After that, the season collapsed into injury, illness, and a lot of losses. The Caps have those five wins again, but this team is more skilled and has some more (if not an optimal amount, certainly) of depth. Things got worse for the boys after a good start last year. The ingredients are here to get much better for them after a sputtering start.

But guys?...start’s over. There are a lot of teams struggling so far that one would not expect it from -- the Rangers, Buffalo, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta...all playoff teams from a year ago, currently on the outside looking in. However, the season is now more than 15 percent completed (time flies, doesn’t it?), and the Caps are in 14th place, two points out of last in the Eastern Conference. Wake-up call is here.

A contract worth noting...Jason Spezza

TSN.ca reports that Jason Spezza has inked a seven-year extension for $49 million, with the deal front weighted in signing bonuses ($40 million total obligation for years 1-5).

For those of you lighting candles that Alex Ovechkin's deal gets done soon, it's a deal worth noting. So, for those of you keeping score, that's two big, front-loaded contracts bestowed upon Senators, Dany Heatley having signed one (six years/$45 million -- $26 million of it in years 1-3) a month ago.

The cap hits for the big contracts look like this:

Jason Spezza: $7.0 million
Dany Heatley: $7.5 millon
Sidney Crosby: $8.7 million (coincidence, right?)

All are front loaded (Crosby gets $36 million in years 1-4 of his five year deal).

That $7.5 million cap figure seems as good a place as any to settle for Ovechkin, given what his cohorts have signed for. The trick is going to be the years. That Alexander Semin has signed a two-year/$9.2 million deal that is back-loaded ($5.0 million in the second year) also might suggest that the stream of payments could be an issue.

Nothing ever comes easy, much as it might look that way just looking at the numbers.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flyers, November 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Didn’t we just do this yesterday?...Well, we’re doing it again today, because…THE FLYERS ARE COMING TO TOWN!

And you know what that means…uncouth Flyer fans…

“Yo!...Peerless, who you callin’ uncouth?”

Rocky?...Well, here is one of Philly’s favorite sons come to pay us a visit. Rocco, what’s going on?

“Hey, I just wanted to come to see how youse guys were gonna hold up against our Flyers.”

Well, what about them…what do you think of them so far?

“They’re great!...you should see dese guys hit. It’s like me’n Creed way back, remember that?”

Sure do, Rocky…what about Martin Biron?...he’s been a “rock” himself in goal.

“Hey, Peerless…you’re a funny guy, ya know? But this Biron – I think he’s really Marty Barone…you know, an Italian guy – he’s great! Flashin’ those pads…catchin’ those pucks…he’s got a better glove hand than that Clubber Lang guy. Geez…top-ten in wins, goals-against, save percentage…youse can’t do no better’n that.”

Speaking of Clubber, these Flyers still don’t seem to have the look of the old “Broad Street Bullies” teams…

“Hey…dese guys can hold their own, if ya know what I mean…seven fights in 11 games…and that Riley Cote has three already!”

You think he and Donald Brashear might have a go tonight?

“Hey, I’m lookin’ forward to it. Brash has the big left hand, but Cote is a real fireplug…kinda like I was…he just keeps punchin’”

How about Daniel Briere…he’s been the “good” free agent signing so far, it seems.

“Hey…I don’t know nuthin’ ‘bout ‘free agents’…nuthin’s free where I come from, ya know?...but this Briere, he’s a tough kid, even though he’s got that baby face.”

If you were to tell Caps fans who to look out for, who would you pick?

“Hey, Peerless…you don’t telegraph your punches when you’re in the ring, ya know what I’m sayin’?...but I’m thinkin’ the Caps oughtta be lookin’ out for Jeff Carter. He’s got six goals in 11 games so far, and he’s had three in five career games against the Caps.”

Well, Rock, what’s up with Simon Gagne?...he took that shoulder from Jay Bouwmeester a few games back and hasn’t been seen since.

“Yo, did you see that hit?...It was like that Russian guy I fought…Drago. Gagne’s been dizzy ever since. He’s been takin’ dese tests up in Philly…memorizin’ names and stuff like that…and he’s showin’ up about as punch-drunk as I was after I pounded Tommy Gunn into the front of a bus. He's dumber'n Paulie, ya know what I'm sayin'?”

Is he going to play tonight?

“I dunno, ya know?...he’s seein’ kinda slow, like when a guy throws a punch, and you’re still seein’ it, but he’s already hit ya, ya know?”

I think I do…so Rock, you seen this Ovechkin kid?

“He’s great!...I saw that hit he had last year…when he put that guy through the glass in Colorado?...geez, he hits harder than I do!”

That’s sayin’ somethin’, Rock…

“And he’s fast too…like Creed. Ya blink, and he’s either already hit ya eight times, or he’s around ya makin’ ya look foolish, ya know?”

So what do you think, Rock?...I’d guess you’re picking Philly to win tonight, eh?

“Hey, I dunno, ya know?...they lost three o’ their last four, and got beat pretty good in a couple, know what I’m sayin’?...and they’re not a great road team, either…they’re in the middle of a long road trip.”

Eight games, isn’t it?

“Yeah…Flyer fans are gonna forget how ta boo, ya know?”

Sure Rock…what’s been going on?...you guys have a horse show or something up there?

“Nah…worse…they had friggin’ Disney on Ice…I wanna stuff a left hook in Nemo’s face, already, ya know?”

I know, Rock…I get that feeling whenever I see another picture of Sidney Crosby…

“Yeah…me too…”

For the Caps, the object is to stop the bleeding. They’ve already endured a four-game losing streak in the early part of the season. Starting in on another streak just isn’t part of the plan. The Flyers present the kind of opponent the Caps should match up well against. They are good – so they will get the Caps’ attention – but not so good as to render the Caps uncompetitive. And, the Flyers are 3-4-0 on the road. Although Brent Johnson would seem to be the pick in goal tonight, given the pattern so far this year, his record against the Flyers is not pleasant to consider: 2-5-0, 4.78, .852.

Olaf Kolzig’s won-lost record isn’t really any better (12-18-3), but his GAA is respectable (2.63), and his save percentage is very good (.912). However, he did have that incident involving his knee last night, and while he finished the game soundly, one doesn’t know what might have transpired overnight. Nevertheless, the Caps have shown an ability to skate with just about anybody, and this is one of those “olde tyme” rivalry games that will get the blood up.

Caps 4 – Flyers 3.

A NO point night -- Caps vs. Rangers, November 1st

"He play unbelievable tonight. He win the game for the Rangers."

That’s it, in a nutshell. It is Alex Ovechkin’s succinct summary of last night’s 2-0 win by the New York Rangers over the Caps. “He” refers to Henrik Lundqvist, who stopped all 31 shots he faced en route to his third shutout of the year. There have been some outstanding performances this year in goal so far – Pascal Leclaire’s four shutouts, Martin Biron’s leading the Flyers back to dominance, Martin Gerber filling in more than admirably for Ray Emery in Ottawa – but no one has played better on a bigger stage with less of a margin for error than Lundqvist. And given that he is a two-time Vezina Trophy finalist already in his young career, he is no fluke. At the moment, he stands at the top of the goaltending heap.

The Capitals did not suffer for opportunities – they “outattempted” the Rangers 70-45 (the Caps had 30 attempts blocked and nine missed shots in addition to the 31 shots they got through to Lundqvist). Ovechkin had 14 attempts on his own, and Viktor Kozlov was credited with eight shots on goal. Even Nicklas Backstrom got in on the attack with a season-high three shots on goal.

But in the beginning (when the Caps were the better of the two teams), in the middle (when Michael Nylander was stuffed on the best chance of the night for the Caps), and at the end (when the Rangers were hanging onto a lead), it was Lundqvist that was the story of the game.

Except for that, it’s hard to find fault with the Caps’ effort, or even their “production.” Despite missing Alexander Semin, Chris Clark, and Tom Poti, the Caps threw everything but the skate sharpener at Lundqvist. Not even four power play chances – and eight shots on goal – could serve as a vehicle to solve the Rangers’ goalie.

In a game this close, it came down to a mistake. It wasn’t of the defensive breakdown variety that leaves a man open or a net untended – it was the simultaneous minor penalties taken by John Erskine and Brian Sutherby that gave the Rangers a full two-minute 5-on-3 midway in the third period. The Rangers used that advantage to net the insurance goal that Lundqvist made stand up, even when the Caps would have a four-minute power play later in the third period.

If you look at the numbers alone, they reflect a tight, hard-fought game. The Caps won the shots battle (31-28), the Rangers won on hits (42-29)…the Caps had fewer giveaways (eight versus 13), the Rangers had more takeaways (11-10). But there is one number that screams off the score sheet that reflects what a different team the Rangers have become – “30.” Sure, it’s Lundqvist’s jersey number, but it is also the number of blocked shots the Rangers were credited with – fourteen skaters were credited with at least one. The Rangers have turned into the defensive team that Jaromir Jagr seemed to despise when it was the style in Washington during his days here…quite an irony. We’ll see how long this lasts.

The Caps are at the stage of the game where they are “competitive” in just about every game they play (they’ve suffered two blowouts this year, which is the difference in a 5-7-0 record). Now, they have to find a way to win these games on a consistent basis. Lundqvist was the difference this night – he can fairly lay claim to being the best goaltender in the league at the moment – but teams with great aspirations find ways to beat those guys, too. Last night, the Caps could not. Come the spring?...we’ll see.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, November 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, Caps fans, we are in the midst of having won one in a row. And what a one it was. A 7-1 win in Toronto against the Maple Leafs is always a treat, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Caps are still only 5-6-0, but that is better than the stumbling 4-6-1 start that tonight’s opponent – the New York Rangers – have compiled.

A trip to Manhattan always brings with it the thrill of the sights and sounds of the big city. And the visitor might be advised to partake of some of the delectable delights of the Big Apple when taking in the city. Perhaps no place says, “New York” more than The Stage Deli in Manhattan, where their famous sandwiches bear the names of those who created them. From the “Marv Albert” (corned beef and swiss cheese) to the “Alex Rodriguez” (turkey, chopped liver, lettuce, tomato, and onion), you’ll find something famous when you're famished.

But what about the Rangers? The Peerless perused the menu and didn’t see anything dedicated to the Blueshirts. Well, if there were any Rangers on the menu, perhaps Caps fans might be able to order such as…

The Jaromir Jagr…over-boiled chicken, limburger, and chopped liver…it has no heart, and stinks, too! Call your friends to order one…on your cell phone!

The Scott Gomez…sliced Alaska salmon, caviar, waygu beef, moose milk cheese (really!), and a nice slice of heirloom tomato…oh, so nice, and overpriced at half the price!

The Brendan Shanahan…blue cheese (extra mold), aged corn-fed beef, and hard-boiled egg…we’ll even throw in a bottle of Ensure!

The Sean Avery…sliced tongue, hot peppers, extra sharp cheddar cheese, and bologna…it puts the “smack” in “lip-smackin’ good”

The Larry Brooks…bologna…lots and lots of bologna…we don’t even bother with the bread!

The Chris Drury…ground buffalo, boneless chicken wings, and white American cheese…you’ll wish you were in Buffalo…he does.

The Fedor Tyutin…pastrami, sauerkraut, chopped liver, and onions…you’ll be “tyutin” all night long!

The Stephen Valiquette…two slices of white bread…hey, when he plays a game, we’ll fill it in!

The Marc Staal…chicken, turkey, duck, and goose…hey, they’re all brothers under their poultry skin…


Now that you’ve had you fill, what can we expect tonight? Well, we can expect the fans at Madison Square Garden to have a low “boo” threshold. A club featuring a payroll that includes the likes of Jaromir Jagr ($8.36 million), Scott Gomez ($10.0 million paid to him this year), Chris Drury ($7.1 million), and Henrik Lundqvist ($4.1 million) sitting dead last in the NHL in scoring (1.73 goals/game) and 12th in the Eastern Conference in points will have that effect.

Only Lundqvist can be said to have earned his money so far. His 1.82 goals-against average (5th in the league) and .930 save percentage (6th) have kept the Rangers in every game, despite the goal scoring drought. King Henrik is only 4-3-1 when giving up two goals or fewer – a sign of the consistent goal scoring trouble the Rangers have had. The Rangers are third best in the league in goals-allowed-per-game.

Offensively, it’s hard to know where to start. The Rangers are second in the league in shots per game (33.8). They’re certainly not shy about launching the puck. But here is a glimpse at the trouble…Brendan Shanahan takes almost six of those shots a game, and he has two goals to show for it. His 3.2 percent shooting percentage is worse than Fedor Tyutin, Petr Prucha, Ryan Callahan, and Dan Girardi, who – combined – earn less than three-quarters what Shanahan is earning.

Shanahan is hardly the only problem. Someone forgot to tell Scott Gomez that the season started. Being 2-1-3, -2, through 11 games is not what the Rangers had in mind when bringing him across the river. But, three points ties him for fifth in team scoring.

See the problem?

However, in the end, all roads (and pucks) go through Jaromir Jagr. That he would be leading the team in scoring is not a surprise. That he would be doing it with 11 points is. If he was to continue that pace over the entire season, it would be only time he would have failed to average more than a point a game (save for his split season with the Caps and Rangers in 2003-2004), since 1991-1992. This is an important consideration for Jagr, given the nature of the criteria to trigger an option for next year on his contract (and the Caps’ obligation therein). At the moment, at the pace he is on, he would meet none of the criteria, not even the trophies (unless you think an 82-point season will win the Ross or be deserving of the Hart, and the Rangers are not now in the top-eight, so there goes the Smythe).

For the Caps, their seven-goal effort against Toronto catapulted them to 15th in the league in scoring at 2.82 goals-per-game. They’re actually better on the other side, giving up 2.73 goals-per-game, good for 13th in the league. Again, it’s not five-on-five play that is hurting the club – they are ninth overall in five-on-five efficiency. Their special teams remain mired in the bottom half of the rankings – 20th on the power play (16.1 percent) and 19th on the penalty kill (80.7 percent). Their “special teams index” (power play ranking-plus-penalty killing ranking) ranks 22nd in the league. The Rangers, by way of comparison, are 13th.

If there is anything in the numbers that suggests a strategy for the Caps it is this…”shoot early, and shoot often.”

The Rangers are winless when trailing first (0-5-1), and they are winless when trailing after one period (0-3-0). Conversely, they unbeaten when leading after one period (4-0-0). You can pretty much plan your evening on the basis of the first 20 minutes…unless they’re tied.

This is a really good sign for the Caps (it’s what we do here). The Caps are tied for fourth in first period goals scored (13) and have outscored their opposition 13-6 in the first frame. The Rangers, on the other hand, are six for and six against in the first period this year.

The Caps will get that first goal tonight, and it will be a lead they will not relinquish…

Caps 2 – Rangers 1.


Edit...we almost forgot, there is a post-game treat for fans after the Flyers game on Friday...the Chuggers of the NVAHL (Northern VA Adult Hockey League) will be playing the Justice from the HNA (Hockey North America) after the Caps game. If you choose to hang around after the Caps victory, you can all move down to the players bench area and watch some spirited hockey, amateur style. As English put it over on The Official, "the Washington Post...says, 'A must see game'". He wrote it on his copy of the Post with a Sharpie, but no doubt the WaPo was thinking it. Give it a look...The Peerless prognosticates a hard-fought affair won by the sons of the Old Dominion.