Saturday, May 02, 2009

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 1: Caps 3 - Penguins 2


Can you say his name NOW?!

That’s “Var-LA-mov”…”V,” as in “Victory”…as in “Vandalism”… as in “Very sweet stick save.”

OK, so Crosby got a goal. He does that. Ovechkin got one, too. But if you had “Semyon Varlamov” before the game as the guy who would save the Caps’ bacon in Game 1, then buy a lottery ticket. The rookie goalie, who was supposed to face an offense that was to the New York Rangers what an F-16 fighter is to a paper airplane, faced that offense and faced them down, for one game at least.

But the whole game comes down to what happened at 17:59 of the second period and the score tied, 2-2. Sidney Crosby skated through the neutral zone with Chris Kunitz -- Mike Green and Tom Poti back for the Caps. At the Caps’ line, Crosby left the puck for Kunitz cutting behind him. Kunitz curled in as Crosby darted for the net. Kunitz laid a pass right onto Crosby’s tape for what looked like a tap-in for what would have been the tying goal. But Semyon Varlamov planted his left skate, pushed off and dove at the shot Crosby took, getting the paddle of his stick on the puck just as it reached the goal line. The puck never crossed, though, as Varlamov swept it out so that Mike Green could move it out of danger.

If the Penguins scored there, the outcome – given the record of teams holding a lead at the second intermission so far in the playoffs – is probably very different. It was hardly Varlamov’s only ten-bell save, though. In stopping 34 of 36 shots on the afternoon, there was the puck that hit a skate on a Penguin power play and ended up right on the blade of Mark Eaton’s stick. Varlamov came out and took away any space Eaton had to shoot at, swallowing the shot in his midsection with 11:26 left in the second. There was the two-on-one for Pittsburgh – Ruslan Fedotenko and Petr Sykora – on which Varlamov darted across to foil Sykora’s attempt of a pass from Fedotenko with 3:55 left in the second. There was Evgeni Malkin winding his way through the neutral zone and down the right wing boards, finding Fedotenko cutting to the net for a back door play, but Varlamov was there one more time to dart across the crease and foil Fedotenko as the clock was ticking toward four minutes to play in the third.

There wasn’t any doubt, Varlamov was the game’s first star.

Other stuff…

- Even the “save of the playoffs, as it was described on the NBC broadcast, is not always just the goalie. Look at the replay. Even though Tom Poti was beaten to the net by Sidney Crosby, Poti got enough of Crosby with his stick to perhaps throw off Crosby’s shot. If Poti is not there, Crosby might have just buried that shot.

- It’s only one game, but it was not an auspicious start for Evgeni Malkin. He had an assist (on the Mark Eaton goal that, as Pierre McGuire put it, “had a lot of odor on it” for the way Varlamov whiffed on the attempted glove save) but was otherwise unheard from. Three shot attempts (two on goal), and not much fire in his game. He even lost both draws he took against Alex Ovechkin.

- Alright…that shot resulting in the Eaton goal might have been tipped by Boyd Gordon before it eluded Varlamov's glove.

- OK, it worked…but if that slap pass from Alexander Semin to Alex Ovechkin for the 5-on-3 power play goal didn’t work, folks would be saying a lot of the same things this evening that they were saying last spring when Ovechkin passed up a shot to try to feed Sergei Fedorov late in Game 7 against the Flyers.

- The Caps, who were abused in the faceoff circle to the tune of 28-14 in the first two periods, were 14 of 18 in the third period, including winning the last four draws taken in the last 2:06 of the game.

- What is it with Matt Bradley and that corner down by Section 103? He skates down there, throws a puck at Henrik Lundqvist…it goes in. This afternoon, he takes a feed from Brooks Laich, glides into the same corner, throws the puck in front, and David Steckel bangs it home. It’ll be renamed, “The Bradley Corner,” if this keeps up.

- 22 giveaways…not good. They had ten in the first period and six in the first six-plus minutes.

- We thought Nicklas Backstrom would be a key in terms of his playmaking. He started the play on the Ovechkin power play, and it was his pass to Tomas Fleischmann for the game-winner. And there are folks who probably weren’t even aware that he was out there.

- Even though the Caps were hammered on faceoffs in the first two periods and lost that battle for the game, 32-28, they were 11 of 18 in the defensive zone. David Steckel – this afternoon’s winner of the hard hat – won six of eight, mostly at the expense of Sidney Crosby, against whom he was five for six.

- John Erskine…eight hits, a third of the Caps’ total.

- But it was Erskine who was caught at the red line, unable to keep Bill Guerin from feeding Crosby speeding toward the Caps’ end for what would become the game’s first goal.

- The Penguins had five power plays…they had six power play shots. Five of them came from defensemen Sergei Gonchar and Kris Letang. Tom Poti and Mike Green had as many shots on the Penguin power play (one apiece) as did Evgeni Malkin (one). If the Penguins keep that up, they’ll find it difficult to get a power play goal in this series.

- Marc-Andre Fleury stops a lot of pucks…he also gives up a lot of rebounds. If the Caps could convert a third of what were presented to them this afternoon, this game would have been over at the second intermission.

- The education of a defenseman… last year, Mike Green averaged 0:20 in shorthanded ice time a game. This year, in the regular season, he averaged 2:28. He’s averaging 2:30 in the playoffs. Today, he had 4:22.

Once again, we serve to remind that it’s “first to four,” not “first to one.” And this makes seven of eight times in Caps-Pens history that the Caps have won Game 1. There will be bumps along the way, but the Caps got the games they needed out of the players who needed to have them – a goal by Ovechkin, a pair of assists by Backstrom, more energetic play from Mike Green, and a great performance from Varlamov.

Now, they have to be better, because Pittsburgh will be. This one, though…. Great job, boys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals, Caps vs. Penguins...Game 1


The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are live from Peerless Central on this, the morning of Game 1 of the greatest playoff series in the history of earth.

Romans versus Carthaginians in the Punic Wars? Pfft…amateurs

The Hundred Years War? Yeah…right.

The Civil War?... intramural pansy crap.

This is serious! Ovechkin versus Crosby, Malkin versus Semin, Fleury versus Varlamov, Boudreau versus Bylsma, Primanti’s versus Ben’s Chili Bowl. It doesn’t get any bigger.

“Calm down, cuz…it’s just a game.”

Just… a… game? What are you, a Communist? Or worse, a basketball fan?

“No, I’m just sayin’… “

What?...WHAT?!

“Feerless, I’m sceered…he’s talkin’ stoopid.”

“Don’t worry, that’s just the caffeine talking after he was up writing that preview last night. You OK, cousin?”

Sure, it’s just these early games. Pronosticatin’ is hard, ya know? So what are you boys looking for today?

“Women…”

The game, Cheerless…the game…”

“Oh, shoot, I don’t know…I just look at the scoreboard to figure out who’s doing what.”

You’re nothing if not simple. Feerless?

“It’s like you said in the first round – ‘first to four.’ If the Caps win, it’s only one game on the way to four. If they lose, it’s not the end of the world.”

You guys aren’t much for analysis, are you?

“It’s like you said, cuz, it’s early…

OK, well, about this game… the early comparisons here are, of course, the Ovechkin versus Crosby angle. It’s today’s version of “Bird versus Magic,” the legendary rivalry that started when Larry Bird and Earvin Johnson met in a college championship final and carried their rivalry into the NBA, where they met 17 times in the regular season over their respective careers and in the playoffs three times in the finals.

If you’re looking to that short-pants rivalry for clues about the Ovechkin-Crosby duel, we’ll give you some things to think about.

If you’re looking for similarities in persona, you’ll find them here. Earvin “Magic” Johnson, he of the electric smile and outgoing personality, the player who could bring fans out of their seats with rushes up the court, the personality that was made for the marketing folks in the NBA in the 1980’s could be said to have his stylistic descendant in the person of Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin, with his gap-toothed grin, fractured English, devil-may-care attitude, a player who can bring fans out of their seats every time he takes the puck out of his zone on a rush up the ice, is a player made for the marketing folks in the NHL in the post-lockout era of hockey.

Larry Bird, the reticent, reserved player of elite skill in all aspects of the game, a player who can beat you with sheer technical excellence or the perfectly timed display of flash, a player who could take his team on his back and carry them as far as they need to go, was the perfect foil for a player such as Earvin Johnson.

Sidney Crosby, who gives the appearance of measuring his behavior and calculating the effect of his quotes with each appearance he makes in the media or in interviews, who is perhaps the most technically complete player to step onto an NHL ice sheet, certainly since Wayne Gretzky, who can by sheer force of will and skill dominate an opponent and carry his team on his shoulders, is the perfect foil for the outsized personality and talent of a player such as Alex Ovechkin.

If you’re looking at the head-to-head, Caps fans will be hoping the analogy of Ovechkin-Crosby carries over to Johnson-Bird. To date, Sidney Crosby has had the upper hand in the regular season meetings between the teams…


This year, however, Ovechkin evened up the statistical profile. His Caps went 3-0-1 against the Penguins, and he went 4-2-6, +3, compared to Crosby’s 1-6-7, -5 in four games.

It isn’t unlike the Johnson-Bird regular season history in which Bird enjoyed a considerable statistical advantage over their respective careers. Bird averaged 23.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 6.5 assists a game in 17 regular season games played between the Celtics and Lakers in their careers. Johnson averaged 20.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 12.2 assists in those 17 head-to-head matchups. The Lakers won 10 of 17 of those head-to-head games.

And things didn’t change – statistically – in the playoffs between Johnson and Bird. Bird averaged 25.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 19 career playoff games against Johnson. Magic averaged 20.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 13.5 assists in those games. But in the end, Johnson’s team won 11 of 19 playoff games and two of three series. Caps fans will be anxious to have that scenario play out here.

But carrying that analogy even further, the “magic” of Ovechkin isn’t enough, any more than Johnson’s “magic” was enough for the Lakers. Ovechkin doesn’t have a Kareem Abdul-Jabbar sort on his team, but there are other players who are faint echoes of the sort of player who provided the kind of support the Lakers had to have to beat Bird and his Celtics.

In Sergei Fedorov, a wily veteran who can do it on offense or defense, a smart player of no small amount of skill, a player who can succeed with grit or style, there is a faint resemblance to a player such as James Worthy.

In Brooks Laich, a player who gets his nose dirty, who bangs in the timely goal, who hustles all over the ice, there is the distant echo of a Kurt Rambis.

In Alexander Semin, a player who is as pure an offensive talent as there is on the Caps, a player who can have fans asking, “how did he do that?” there is a resemblance to a Byron Scott.

The “X” factor here, though, might be Nicklas Backstrom, who might very well be the key to this series for the Caps. His ability to find teammates for scores (he has 13 assists in eight career games against Pittsburgh) will be important in taking some pressure off the defense – and rookie goalie Semyon Varlamov – at the other end of the ice.

The Caps are 6-1, all-time, in Game 1 against the Penguins. We see no reason why the trend should be any different. It’s a long road ahead, but the first step on it is a good one.

Caps 4 – Penguins 3

Friday, May 01, 2009

Your Peerless Prognosto for Round Two -- Caps (2) vs. Penguins (3)


Round two.

Only twice in the history of the Capitals franchise has the club cleared this hurdle – in 1990, when they met the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference finals (losing in a four-game sweep) and in 1998, when the Caps reached the Stanley Cup finals (losing to the Detroit Red Wings in, yes, a four-game sweep).

And now, the Caps seek to improve upon this sparse record in the rarefied air of the Stanley Cup playoffs by facing their long-time nemesis, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins, as any Caps fan has imprinted in their DNA, have faced the Caps seven times, winning six times. This will be only the second time, however, that the teams have met later than the opening round. Which brings us to…

The History In Numbers

The Penguins have dominated the Caps in the playoffs to the tune of a 26-16 record in games and have outscored the Caps, 137-121 (3.26-2.88) in doing so. But what is so galling to Caps fans who have endured this history is the inability on the part of the Caps to win close games:

16 games have been decided by one goal in this series, and 12 times the Penguins have come out on the long end of the score. That includes a 5-1 Penguins advantage in overtime games.

The Caps’ frustration is only multiplied when you consider the records of the teams in the individual games of the series:

That the Caps have won only once in 14 tries in games five, six, and seven in this series is as plain as it gets in terms of illustrating the inability of the Caps to close out the Penguins. It doesn’t take a degree in physics from MIT to figure out that the Caps have to have much more of a killer instinct about the Penguins than have any of their predecessors (save for 1994).

The History – This Year

After falling behind, 3-0, in the first meeting of the year in Pittsburgh, the Caps came back to win that game and two others before falling in a Gimmick in the last meeting of the year…

The special teams for the two were productive overall, but the comparison is deceptive. After scoring on three of their first four power plays in that first game, the Penguins went 3-for-20 afterward. The Caps, unsuccessful in four attempts in that first game and their first four opportunities in the second game of the year between the teams, finished up with five goals in their last nine power play opportunities...

And now…

If ever there were two teams that were mirror images of themselves in a playoff series, these two teams fill the bill. Young, highly skilled at the forward position, with underrated defenses that still have question marks, coaches who came through the AHL route to the NHL and replaced coaches in mid-stream – these teams are running on parallel tracks. How do they match up when we break it down, though?

Five on five…

On April 5th, we noted a disturbing trend in the Caps’ five-on-five play…
“On February 19th, the Caps ratio of goals scored to goals allowed was 1.29 (numbers greater than one being good, and the higher the better) and ranked 5th in the NHL. As the Caps take the ice today, that ratio had dropped to 1.10, and their ranking has dropped to ninth.”

The Caps remained at that 1.10 ratio of goals scored at five-on-five to goals allowed, and their ranking climbed to eighth. But the Penguins are the superior team in this statistic, finishing sixth at 1.18. In fact, the Penguins tied for third in the league in goals scored at five-on-five (167) and scored 65 percent of their goal total in such situations. On the other hand, the Caps have scored 58 percent of their 268 total goals this year at five-on-five (155 goals). On this basis, the Penguins appear to have a slight advantage, making better use of their even and full strength situations.

Capitals Power Play versus Penguin Penalty Kill…

The Caps finished second in the NHL in power play efficiency (25.2 percent). However, they finished 19th in the league in power play opportunities (337 – 4.11/game). Confoundingly enough, the Caps finished the season with a more efficient power play than their season average, scoring on 20 of their last 72 opportunities (27.8 percent) from March 1st on. But they enjoyed even fewer opportunities on a per-game basis (3.79/game). As formidable as the Caps power play is, the question here is whether they draw enough penalties to make full use of that aspect of their arsenal.

On the other hand, the Penguins had a more than respectable power play, finishing the year eighth in efficiency (82.7 percent), although they got more practice at it than they might otherwise like, finishing with the 12th most shorthanded situations faced (347 – 4.23/game). Perhaps surprisingly, the coaching change from Michel Therrien to Dan Bylsma had the result of Pittsburgh killing off a larger percentage of shorthanded situations (87.4 percent) than their season average, yet faced more shorthanded situations per game than their season average (4.44/game).

The key number here might be “five.” If the Caps can force the Penguins to skate shorthanded five or more times a game, their efficiency on the power play could offset the advantage the Penguins enjoy at five-on-five.

Penguin Power Play versus Capitals Penalty Kill...

There is perhaps no greater mystery this year than the lack of efficiency – given their talent – of the Penguins power play. Pittsburgh finished 20th in the league in power play efficiency (17.2 percent), worse than any playoff team in the East except the Rangers. After the coaching change, the Penguins didn’t force significantly more chances (4.48 per game), although they did improve on their season efficiency (19.6 percent).

On the other hand, the Capitals’ penalty kill finished 17th in the league and sixth among eight playoff teams in the East (80.6 percent). As much as the percentage of shorthanded situations killed off (which could use improvement), there was the matter of the sheer volume of such situations faced. The Caps finished the year with the third highest number of shorthanded situations faced in the league and the second most among all 16 playoff teams. Killing only one-in -five penalties, plus facing almost five shorthanded situations a game (4.72, actually)…the math isn’t difficult – a power play goal allowed per game, which places much more pressure on the Caps’ defense and their goaltending at even strength.

The Caps, however, improved on these numbers down the stretch, killing off 85.5 percent of the 76 shorthanded situations they faced (4.00/game). They will need to put up numbers at least that good to give themselves the best chance to advance. If the Penguins find their stride on their power play and the Caps continue to put themselves shorthanded at rates approaching that of the regular season, this series won’t last long.

Goaltending…

There is no bigger wild card in this series than this. There is no bigger problem in predicting an outcome than trying to figure out if Semyon Varlamov’s performance against the Rangers in the first round was, as the comparison of preference goes, ‘Cam Ward-like,” or if it was the product of the ineptitude of the Rangers’ offense. Varlamov will face a deep, talented, experienced challenge in the Penguins.

More to the point, what Varlamov will face is shots. In the first round, he faced a total of 145 shots in six games (24.2/game). Pittsburgh launched their 145th shot at Flyers’ goalie Martin Biron in the first round at 12:25 of the first period of game 5. The Rangers managed to exceed 25 shots only twice in six games against Varlamov. The Penguins exceeded that total in all six games against the Flyers. And this is without even considering that the Penguins have arguably half at least three players (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Bill Guerin) who are better finishers than any player on the Rangers’ roster.

On the other hand, there is a more subtle variability that lurks in the history of Varlamov’s opposite number, Marc-Andre Fleury. The young Penguin netminder has backstopped a team in a Stanley Cup final. The thing is, though, Fleury had (to be charitable about it) an awful record in playoff series settings before last year…13-24, 3.62, .886, dating back to his days at Cape Breton. He’d won only two series in his playoff career — none as a professional. And going into last year, Fleury could be said to be only going along for the ride with skaters who were much more talented and accomplished at their positions than he was at his. But he came up big, to his credit. But, is that a change due to experience, or an aberration? Based on his first round performance (2.39, .922 in six games against a formidable offense), you’d have to think that it is experience making him a better post season performer. But then again, he was 1-3-0, 4.73, .862 against the Caps this year.

On its face, one would have to conclude that the Penguins’ biggest advantage in this series is in goal, a product of Varlamov’s lack of experience. But in that is also the biggest upside potential for the Caps. Varlamov has been a successful performer in post season and tournament play, albeit playing in and for Russia, not in the NHL (or the AHL, for that matter). He hasn’t cracked yet, though.

The Coaches…

While Bruce Boudreau for the Caps and Dan Bylsma for the Penguins look to have come from different worlds – Boudreau the old school coach who spent a lot of time riding buses in the minors honing his craft, Bylsma with the look of a college professor who hadn’t completed so much as his first season in the AHL before assuming the head coaching job in Pittsburgh – both coaches were plucked out of the AHL to take over underperforming teams, and both oversee teams given to aggressive forechecking and offensive pressure. One might have thought that Boudreau, by virtue of his superior experience in a head coaching role, would clearly have the upper hand in this matchup, but Bylsma has pushed all the right buttons (or perhaps more accurately, pushed fewer of them than his predecessor, Michel Therrien) in guiding the Penguins to a 22-5-4 mark since taking over the reins. If a mistake is going to be made behind the bench, we’re thinking Bylsma is still more likely to make it, but he hasn’t made many so far.

The Players – Sidgeni Malksby vs. Alex Ovechkin...

Do two Penguins beat an indomitable Russian? Naturally, if you sum the goals, assists, and points for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, they will far exceed those of Ovechkin (91-132-223 to 56-54-110). But Ovechkin has almost as many power play goals (19) as “Malksby” (21), more game-winning goals (10) than Malksby (7), almost as many overtime goals (two versus three for the pair of Penguins), had fewer penalty minutes (72) than either of them (80 for Malkin, 76 for Crosby), and has far more hits (243) than the pair (160). Malkin, on the other hand, has far more takeaways (94) than does Ovechkin (60), even without adding Crosby (56). The danger for the Caps here is that they are so “Ovechkin-centric.” It’s easier to shut down one superstar than it is to shut down two. Ovechkin has to have a better series than he had against the Rangers, even if his totals (3-4-7, +5) were hardly those of a slug.

The Players – The Supporting Cast...

If Crosby and Malkin outnumber Ovechkin at the top of the talent pyramid, the Capitals might have the advantage at the next level. The Penguins don’t really have a “next wave” set of players to match Alexander Semin or Nicklas Backstrom. Semin has become something of a playoff warrior. He is 8-8-16, +7 in 14 career playoff games, with two game-winning goals among the seven wins the Caps have last year and this. Backstrom might be the key here, though, for the Caps. In eight career games, he has 13 assists. If he’s putting up similar numbers in this series, the Penguins will be in a world of trouble.

As you descend through the lines, the Penguins appear to have more scoring depth (11 players with at least 30 points, while the Caps have eight, if you don’t count Michael Nylander). But it might be a player who has far fewer than 30 points for the Caps who could be a key here. Chris Clark has only six points in 32 games this year and has played only one game since January 27th (game 7 against the Rangers). But he plays with the sort of energy that could raise the level of play of bring some underachievers – most notably Eric Fehr (two goals since March 1st) and Tomas Fleischmann (3-4-7 in 26 games since March 1st).

The Defense...

These two teams don’t get enough respect for the defensemen they employ. They are very similar in many respects. For a Mike Green, a gifted offensive defenseman with occasional problems in his own end, there is a Sergei Gonchar, whose profile was much the same as a Cap, even if he perhaps makes fewer mistakes at this point in his career than when he patrolled the Washington blue line. For a Hal Gill, a defense-first defenseman with considerable size and whose mobility might be a bit underrated, there is a John Erskine for the Caps, who had something of a coming out party against the Rangers in the first round – a solid defensive effort. For a Rob Scuderi – a very underrated, underappreciated defenseman – for the Penguins, there is a Shaone Morrisonn, who battled back from an indifferent first half of the season to close strong and lead all Caps defensemen in the first round with a plus-5 mark. The thing to watch here is perhaps which of the teams’ defensemen crack under forechecking pressure. Both clubs are vulnerable to such abuse. We’d rate them even, though.

The Intangibles…

The history of this series is just that, history. It means more to fans for purposes of Penguin smack talk and Capital anxiety than it will to any player on the ice. The only player on either team who has experience in a Caps-Penguins playoff series is Sergei Gonchar, and he’s playing for the team he faced in those battles.

After that, there is the real matter of experience, which the Penguins have in this setting and the Caps do not. There is no substitute for experience, and going to a Stanley Cup final qualifies. The Penguins will have the advantage, especially if they fall behind – they can call upon their acquired knowledge that a seven game series can be a long journey and that falling behind a game or two does not spell doom.

For the Caps, they have the experience of having twice fought back from 3-1 deficits in playoff series, losing their first and winning the next. They will always have the “puncher’s” chance that comes with an offense that might be one of the few in the league more explosive than the Penguins’.

In the end…


The Capitals cannot fall behind 2-0 at home the way they did in the opening round. Pittsburgh knows how to close a team out. On the other hand, if the Caps go up 2-0, they have the comfort of knowing that they can win in Mellon Arena, having won in their last three visits to Pittsburgh. Washington has not yet lost in regulation to Dan Bylsma (1-0-1). That should be a source of confidence. If they can get at least a solid performance out of Semyon Varlamov, they have the depth – past the superstar comparison – to advance.

Washington in 6

Your Peerless Prognostos for Round Two -- Boston (1) vs. Carolina (4)


Time to look at the third pairing in round two – Boston and Carolina…

Why Boston can’t lose…

Statistically, the Bruins hold an overwhelming edge over Carolina. In fact, statistically the Bruins are the most dominating team in the league… second in total standings points, second in scoring, first in defense, first in five-on-five play, fourth on the power play, seventh in winning percentage when scoring first, first in winning percentage when trailing first. They swallowed the Montreal Canadiens whole in the first round, not so much as playing a single one-goal game in their four game sweep. They can beat you with incredible offensive balance (10 players with at least ten goals, 21 players with at least ten points in the regular seasons) or with stifling defense (Norris Trophy finalist Zdeno Chara and his underrated sidekick Dennis Wideman on the blue line, Tim Thomas and his 2.10 GAA and .933 save percentage – both league bests – in goal).

Why Boston can’t win…

Because they didn’t, at least not with the regularity down the stretch that they displayed early in the year. Their record, by month, was as follows: 5-3-3, 11-1-1, 12-1-0, 8-3-2, 6-4-3, 7-5-1, 4-2-0. Part of that might have been a bit of coasting – they finished 23 points ahead of Montreal in the Northeast Division – but that still isn’t a happy trend.

The Peerless’ Player to Ponder

Zdeno Chara

Of all the teams remaining in this tournament, Carolina might have the most team speed, top to bottom. It is going to test the defensive skills of the Bruins, none more so than the big guy on the blue line. He acquitted himself quite well in the regular season against the Hurricanes. His plus-7 against Carolina was his best such mark against any team in the league he faced this season.


Why Carolina can’t lose…

On February 17th, the Hurricanes lost a 5-1 decision to Boston in an especially ugly fashion. Playing at home, they scored first, then watched as the Bruins stormed back for five unanswered goals, three of them in the third period, all of them in the last four minutes of play. Since then, the Hurricanes went 17-5-2 to close the regular season, then they vanquished the New Jersey Devils in the opening round with a pair of lightning bolts in the last 90 seconds of Game 7 against Martin Brodeur in Newark. They have played like and have had the look of a team of destiny the last two months.

Why Carolina can’t win…

Few teams will match Boston’s work ethic, and the Bruins will not give up on plays, even as the Hurricanes are trying to use their speed advantage over Boston. If that scenario plays out, Boston wins just about every match-up, by position, in this series.

The Peerless’ Player to Ponder

Cam Ward

After backup goaltender Michael Leighton lost a 6-5 shootout against Philadelphia on December 11th, in Carolina’s 29th game of the year, Ward was the goalie of record in 50 of the Hurricanes’ last 53 games. That’s a lot of work. After a grueling seven-game series against the Devils, one might reasonably wonder how much gas is left in Ward’s tank, especially against a team as deep, balanced, and talented as Boston.

In the end…

Since that February 17th lost to Boston, the Hurricanes have won 21 games. And they haven’t just been beating opponents, they have been running wild over them. Ten times, they won games by at least three goals. On seven occasions, they scored at least five goals, and twice they scored nine. In winning three of the last four games in the first round series over New Jersey, they scored four goals in each game against a hall of fame goaltender in waiting. Boston has the numbers, Carolina has the momentum. We like Big Mo’.


Carolina in 6

Your Peerless Prognostos for Round Two -- Detroit (1) vs. Anaheim (4)


Next up in this look at round two – Detroit and Anaheim…

Why Detroit can’t lose…

They’re better. They scored more (3.52 goals-per-game to 2.90), had a higher goal-per-game differential (+0.59 to +0.03), were better 5-on-5 (1.20 to 1.09), had a better power play (25.5 percent to 23.6), had a better record when scoring first, when trailing first, when leading after one period, when outshooting opponents, when being outshot by opponents. They have the better top-end players (Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom). They have the best home record of any team left in the West, no small consideration, given they have home ice advantage.

Why Detroit can’t win…

They can’t kill penalties. They had the worst penalty killing record of any team in the playoffs (78.3 percent). Even against as offensively challenged a team as the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, they killed only 10 of 13 shorthanded situations (76.9 percent – 13th of 16 playoff teams in the first round and worst of any surviving team). You have to think this goes hand-in-glove with the question mark they have in goal. Even though Chris Osgood had a fine first round (4-0, 1.75, .936), there is that 3.09 GAA and .887 save percentage he’s carrying out of the regular season to have in the back of one’s mind.

The Peerless’ Player to Ponder

Johan Franzen

Franzen was the Wings’ leading scorer in the Columbus series (2-4-6, +4 in the four-game sweep). “The Mule” is going to find the going somewhat harder in this series, given Anaheim’s penchant for physical play. He had three goals in three games against Anaheim this season and four in the last four games he’s played against the Ducks.


Why Anaheim can’t lose…

Since enduring a three game losing streak to open the month of March, Anaheim is 15-5-1, including a 4-2 series win over President’s Trophy winner San Jose. This is a battle-tested group for whom the players who need to perform did just that in the first round against the Sharks. Of the top eight scorers in the opening round series, six were members of the Cup-winning team in 2007, another (Ryan Whitney) played on a Cup finalist, and there is the precocious youngster Bobby Ryan, who had four goals in the opening round series.

Why Anaheim can’t win…

Their penalty killing was almost as bad in the regular season as was Detroit’s (79.7 percent, 23rd in the league and 15th among 16 playoff teams). While they picked it up in the first round (83.3 percent), they still ranked in the lower half of the 16 teams in the first round and have the second worst (to Detroit) mark of eight teams heading into the second round.

The Peerless’ Player to Ponder

Jonas Hiller

Here is a goalie who one might say has exploded onto the scene, but that would be less a reflection of Hiller’s performance dating back to the regular season than perhaps a case of “East Coast bias.” He doesn’t get the attention he might if he played in markets that aren’t in bed by the time he steps onto the ice. You can’t say he accumulated his numbers (1.64, .957, two shutouts) against a patsy in the first round, San Jose’s long history of premature playoff exits notwithstanding. One might be inclined to say that Detroit poses a different sort of challenge – they have the puck all the time. But San Jose actually led all playoff teams in the first round in total shots-per-game (38.3). Detroit was second (35.0). It means Hiller has to be just as sharp in this round as in Round 1 for the Ducks to advance.

In the end…

No lack of experience here. We have the last two Cup winners going at it, so it shouldn’t necessarily be a mistake fest. But therein lies the key, perhaps. The mistakes on the part of each team might be so infrequent that their occurrence takes on even greater importance. And if those mistakes are made, which team has the wherewithal to make amends before a goal is scored or has the resiliency to rebound from having given up a cheap tally? The teams might be just about even in that respect, too, so this series might come down to a simple war of style. While Detroit does have some players who can fight and scrap for position, they are going to be viewed as the “prettier” team. While Anaheim has a reputation as a roughhousing bunch, they have considerable talent. This time of year, we go with the team with the ability to get that extra inch both are clawing to get, a point that might be especially important, give that one of Detroit's scrappers -- Kris Draper -- will miss game one and two.

Anaheim in 7

Thursday, April 30, 2009

ACK!

Imagine clicking on the ESPN (Extra Special Penguin Network) site, and finding this on the NHL page....


It has begun...

Your Peerless Prognostos for Round Two -- Vancouver (2) vs. Chicago (3)


It’s round two in this marathon of four sprints, and it all starts tonight with the Vancouver Canucks hosting the Chicago Blackhawks. So, we start there…

Why Vancouver can’t lose…

Roberto Luongo. How’s that for insight? He leads all playoff goaltenders in goals against average (1.15), save percentage (.962), and has a shutout. It’s not a case of just having found a patsy of an opponent (if such a thing could ever be said…ok, so there was that Montreal thing for Boston) in St. Louis in the first round. In his last seven games dating back to the last three of the regular season, Luongo is 7-0-0, 0.82, .973, and three shutouts. He’s in a zone.

Why Vancouver can’t win…

Since losing to the New York Rangers in the 1994 Stanley Cup finals, the Canucks haven’t escaped the second round in three tries (in seven total playoff appearances). In fact, in 21 playoff appearances in franchise history, Vancouver has advanced from the second round only twice, both times reaching (and losing in) the finals. That’s a lot of history packed in their baggage. As a practical matter, one has to wonder if the Canucks will score enough to advance, despite Luongo’s passable impression of an earthen dam the last couple of weeks. The Sedins – Daniel and Henrik – produced at roughly their regular season pace (a point a game) in the sweep of the Blues in the first round, but the Canucks got little out of Pavol Demitra (a pair of assists) and less out of Mats Sundin (a goal in two games before missing the last two games of the sweep with a “lower body injury”).

The Peerless’ Player to Ponder:

Mats Sundin

Last Friday, he was said to be “flying around the ice” in a Canucks practice. Whether his problem has been a hip, groin, or knee, though, he’s got to add some offense, even if Luongo plays well. It’s what he’s here for.


Why Chicago can’t lose…

Balance. In their six game win over Calgary, six players had at least six points, including two defensemen (Cam Barker and Brent Seabrook). The power play has been lethal (29.2 percent – second in the playoffs thus far), which is quite a reversal of fortune from how the Blackhawks finished the regular season in that regard (five of 60 – 8.3 percent – in their last 14 games).

Why Chicago can’t win…

They’re not supposed to be here. Well, they’re not supposed to advance, anyway… they’re too young, they’re not ready, blah-blah-blah. And Nikolai Khaibulin, who finished the regular season strong (8-1-1, 1.85, .921, and a shutout in his last ten regular season games), was much more ordinary in the series against Calgary (2.52, .914). If he’s not the guy, there’s always Cristobal Huet, but then again, he’s lost both of the playoff series he’s been in, too.

The Peerless’ Player to Ponder

Patrick Kane

Some players have a natural swagger about them, and Kane has that in spades. But we’re at that point in the show where it’s got to be done on the ice, too. He was streaky to finish the regular season – a six-game pointless streak followed by a seven-game closing rush in which he was 1-5-6, +6. Against the Flames, he was 2-2-4 in five games, including a 1-1-2 effort in the series clincher. He was 2-2-4 in four games against the Canucks this season. Chicago will need that sort of an effort to topple Vancouver.

In the end…

Frankly, there seem to be more reasons to pick against either of these teams than there are reasons to pick for either of them…Vancouver doesn’t have enough scoring. Chicago is too young. The Canucks have shown an unsettling tendency to take penalties – 24 shorthanded situations in four games (worst on a per-game basis of any surviving team). Chicago hasn’t been especially dominating at even strength (the worst of the eight teams remaining). Vancouver has a poor track record in the playoffs after round one. Chicago has been this far once in the last 13 seasons, and the last time was, well, 13 seasons ago.

At this time of year, it’s really hard to pick against the hot goalie, and that argues for Vancouver. Khabibulin was ordinary in the first round, but he’s the only goalie in this series with a Stanley Cup on his resume. Chicago has more and deeper skating talent, even if Sundin raises his game for Vancouver. Someone has to win this series…it’ll be the one with the home ice advantage.

Vancouver in 7

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

OK...now what?


Much will be made over the next few days about how the Penguins have abused the Caps in playoff settings over the years. Since the first time the teams met in the playoffs in 1991, the Penguins have compiled a a 6-1 series edge as the teams head into the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

But these two teams have met only once in the second round, that being the first meeting, in 1991. Washington won the first game of the series, 4-2. However, Pittsburgh stormed back to win the next four games.

They then went on to win their first Stanley Cup.

Time for a change.


"You know, there's a rule in sports...


...don't do anything great if you can't handle the congratulations."

Photo by Len Redkoles/Getty Images

My God!...He's Talking About Us!!

Bloggers, that is.

David Brooks is an opinion columnist with the New York Times. He was honored at The Week's "Sixth Annual Opinion Awards." But it was this quote from Brooks that stopped us cold...

“I used to have all sorts of human drives, the need for food, for water for sex. Now I have one drive: the need for column ideas."

We reckon he could have been talking about any hockey blogger you can think of.

In Praise of Blue


When we were younger, we’d have been inclined to say, “ah, f*** ‘em…we win, you lose. Go back to New York.”

But after seeing a lot of playoff hockey over the years, we stood there at the end during watching the handshakes, silently appreciating the effort on the part of the New York Rangers. The Rangers are an offense-challenged team that doesn’t have a finisher worthy of the name. They don’t have a real stopper on defense, although Marc Staal could grow into that role one day. They have some underachievers and guys who don’t look like they fit.

But they have some guys on that team – and behind the bench, for that matter – who are nothing short of warriors.

Chris Drury, who couldn’t even shake hands with his Capital opponents afterward because of a broken hand suffered in a playoff-clinching win against the Flyers almost three weeks ago, was the epitome of a “leave it on the ice” approach to Game 7. He still managed to win five of eight draws and register a couple of hits, despite playing more or less one handed.

Sean Avery was booed every time he touched the puck. He deserved it for some of the antics he perpetrated in this series. But apart from the “Side Show Sean” persona, he was the best Ranger on the ice last night not wearing goalie pads. Avery played with a singular energy – within the rules, if at times right up to the edge of them – and was for long stretches the only Ranger who was asserting himself on offense.

Brandon Dubinsky could have been a “Plumber.” We mean that as a compliment to the young forward. He would have fit right in with that lunch pail bunch for the Caps in the 1980's. A player of somewhat limited offensive skills, he makes the most of what talents he has – on display last night – to rattle, harass, hound, and otherwise make a nuisance of himself to the other team. If he was a Cap, fans would adore this guy.

Ryan Callahan, another player of somewhat limited offensive skill, was just about the hardest working guy on the ice for the Rangers in most of the games of this series. It was his sheer hustle to get into a play that afforded him the opportunity to score the game’s only goal in Game 2, and last night he was one of the Rangers who were checking the Caps all over their own zone, threatening to skate the Caps right out of the rink in the first 40 minutes.

Henrik Lundqvist had the unimaginable pressure of being the one Ranger who could not have a bad minute, let alone game, in this series. On a team that would struggle to score more than two goals a game in this series (the Rangers only did it twice), Lundqvist had to be as close to perfect as a goaltender gets. That he wasn’t, in the end, is not a reflection of his skill or cool determination in this series as much as it shines a light of some other Ranger deficiencies.

When we looked at this series before it began, we thought it would turn on the fact that Lundqvist would not have enough sub-three goal games against the high-octane Caps offense to win the series. The irony is that Lundqvist would lose the ultimate game while providing the Rangers that sub-three-goals-against effort. No goalie is without holes, and the Caps managed to find one often enough to win the series, but absent the play of Lundqvist, this series is probably over before last weekend arrives.

John Tortorella is an abrasive, sour, prickly cuss who no one in the media probably ever wants to ask a question of after a loss. He also has lousy aim with a water bottle. But he was a fantastic bench coach in this series, getting the absolute maximum out of a flawed array of talent. And while he was trying to find the right buttons to push as the Caps were crawling out of a 3-1 deficit in games, Tortorella was, if not pleasant in post game interviews, graceful in a gruff way, if such a thing can be said. His comments about his team last night in the aftermath of the Ranger loss hit all the appropriate grace notes, and none of them seemed forced or false. He really does seem to have an affection for a lot of those players, many of whom are a reflection of a “junkyard dog” approach to the game that he prefers to coach. When he commented that “we checked our ass off,” you could almost hear his voice cracking in disappointment that his boys didn’t quite have that last measure to pull the game out of the fire, but in true appreciation of the effort they gave.

It’s hard to muster a real hate for the Rangers. The first 40 minutes of the game they played last night were a sight to behold, something any fan of the sport who has watched any measure of playoff hockey can appreciate for its “old school” values of hard work and relentlessness. It says something about the Capitals that they were able to dig down in the last 20 minutes and find what it took to win. And in that respect, the Capitals earned their victory.

The Rangers made them earn it.

CAPS WIN! CAPS WIN!! CAPS WIN!!! Game 7: Caps 2 - Rangers 1


The old man had one left in him, after all.

With the clock ticking down to midnight on the Caps’ season, Sergei Fedorov snapped a shot over the left shoulder of New York Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist and into the net, propelling the Capitals to a 2-1 win in the deciding Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal. The digits 2 and 1 figured heavily in this oddly entertaining game…

21 – the number of years since a team – any pro sports team – has won a Game 7 in Washington (yes, including Landover, MD).

21 – the age of the winning goaltender, Semyon Varlamov, who turned that number just yesterday.

2 – the second shot of the game, by Nik Antropov, on a breakaway that Varlamov stuffed. If that shot goes in – 42 seconds into the game – the result might have been very different.

2 – the number of shots the Caps registered in the first period, when they were almost run out of their own building.

1 – the number of shots on goal registered by the Rangers in the third period, when the Caps almost ran them out of the building.

1 – minor penalty taken by the Caps (Mike Green)

2 – minor penalties taken by the Rangers (Nik Antropov, Dan Girardi)

Some other stuff…

- We noted above that the clock was ticking down to midnight on the Caps’ season when Fedorov scored the game winner. Why? In the last three instances in which the Caps were eliminated from the playoffs, it happened in overtime: 2008 to Philadelphia, 2003 to Tampa Bay, and 2001 to Pittsburgh. We weren’t terribly enthusiastic about this one heading to extra time.

- This game completed the symmetry started in Game 4 – a 2-1 win by the Rangers that featured an odd, multi-deflection goal to get the Rangers on the board. This time, it was Nicklas Backstrom leaving the puck for Alexander Semin, who tried to curl the puck around defenseman Dan Girardi, but the Ranger maintained good position. Semin managed to get a shot off, but it appear to deflect off the stick of Ryan Callahan, which served to deaden the puck as it popped into the air. It floated past Girardi and goalie Henrik Lundqvist, who looked to have difficulty picking up the biscuit as it floated in the air.

- John Tortorella said of his team in the post-game, “we checked our ass off.” Did they ever. Credit is due the Rangers, who could have just packed it in after the dominating performances the Caps laid on them in games five and six. But to a man, they hounded the Caps in their end of the ice, especially in the second period, when the frustration at their inability to get the puck past their own blue line threatened to turn the crowd against them. It was one of the most dominating checking performances under the Verizon Center roof this season.

- Before the game, Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau said of Chris Clark, “"There's a difference between being fresh and being rusty -- if [Clark] plays. Anybody who is put into a Game 7, they're not feeling any rust. They're feeling energy. They're feeling excitement like the rest of us." Well, Clark’s hands were rusty. He had a couple of glorious chances to pot a goal, including one where he had a virtually empty net staring at him, and he couldn’t get the hands to work quite quickly enough.

- If the absence of Blair Betts for the Rangers was to be felt most keenly on the power play, then that was a non factor. The Caps had two power plays and a total of 3:28 in ice time. In a sense, it was old-tyme hockey – the refs weren’t calling much of anything.

- That Fedorov game-winner?...”high glove.” In fairness to Lundqvist, though, he had to be aware of who it was barreling toward the net while Fedorov was settling into the right wing faceoff circle to take the game-winner… Alex Ovechkin.

- Ranger fans kept waiting for it, but Scott Gomez never really showed up in this series. Tonight… no points, one shot on goal, and he lost nine of 15 draws.

- On the other hand, say what you want, but when Sean Avery is not a flaming a**hole, he is a helluva hockey player. He was just about the only Ranger who consistently and assertively took the puck to the net. He had no support for his efforts. An assist, six shot attempts, four hits, and he even won both the draws he took, pretty much by just bull rushing Boyd Gordon and David Steckel, neither of whom is a slouch in the circle.

- John Erskine might not give Caps fans a warm and comfy feeling on the blue line on some nights, but it is hard to argue with the guy’s compete level.

- Caps fans might never say it out loud, but we’ll bet they were thinking it in the first two periods – the Caps were playing scared. Guys were getting rid of the puck as soon as it hit their sticks, and they spent 40 minutes chasing the Rangers all around the Caps’ zone to no good end.

- In the post-game radio show, Brooks Laich said that Chris Clark said something to the effect of, “win 20 minutes, win a series.” That was the last 20 minutes in a nutshell. The Caps outshot the Rangers, 13-1. They out-hit the Rangers, 13-6. They won nine of 17 draws. They had seven blocked shots to four for the Rangers.

- Henrik Lunqvist had a two-headed game. One could look at his saving 22 of 24 shots and conclude that he found his game after a couple of relatively poor ones. On the other hand, the Caps did not pound him on the glove side the way they did in games five and six. It’s worth repeating that the Fedorov game-winner was over his glove hand. As things turned out, 13 of the Caps’ 19 goals were scored to that side.

- The Rangers had the look of a team that had expended so much effort in the first 40 minutes that their tanks ran dry in the third. They had no shots on goal in the last 10:31 and could not get out of their own end in the last 90 seconds in an effort to pull Lundqvist for an extra attacker.

- Seven goals in six games. If you’re looking for a frame of reference for that performance by young Mr. Varlamov in goal, the 1998 playoff run is an interesting comparison. In the four series that spring, Olaf Kolzig’s best was in allowing seven goals in five games against Ottawa, in an era when goals were much harder to come by. A 1.17, .952 set of numbers is quite an inaugural for Varlamov. Consider that in that spring 11 years ago, Kolzig’s numbers were 1.95, .941.

- Of 18 skaters for the Caps, 16 registered hits (Alexander Semin and Tom Poti held off that column of the score sheet).

- Now, here’s an odd one. Number of hits registered by Paul Mara in the series for the Rangers… four. The number for the Caps’ Tomas Fleischmann… four.

- Alex Ovechkin missed 21 shots in the series. No Ranger had that many shots on goal (Ryan Callahan had 19).

Well, now it’s Pittsburgh for the second round, thanks to some late game heroics by Carolina in defeating New Jersey in their Game 7. Pittsburgh presents an entirely different set of challenges – an opportunities – than did the Rangers, but that’s a conversation for another day. Tonight was a case of a lesson learned from last year, and the lesson appears to have been titled, "Resiliency."


Well done, guys!



photos: Len Redkoles/Getty Images

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Confidence...


Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.

-- Sun Tzu

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 7: Caps vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Game 7 for all the marbles, the whole enchildada, the whole shootin’ match, there is no tomorrow, it’s do or die, fish or cut bait, live or die, and for these teams, it might be all about pressure and who can handle it best. If you’re New York Rangers coach John Tortorella, you’re planting the seed today that all of the pressure is now on the Capitals, they being the favorite in this series to begin with. According to Torto—

“Ah, vutt duss he know about pressure?”

Professor?

“Dat guy, hiss name zounds like zum kind of zalad I get mitt my dinner – weinerschnitzel mitt die Tortorella on ze side.”

Still, about the pressure on these teams.

“Ja, ja…pressure. Let me tell you about pressure. Ze scientific pr-r-r-roperties of pressure are qvite zimple, really. Let me zhow you…"

“Zee? Pressure ee-qvalls vutt ve call ze ‘normal force’ divided by ze area. Now, here iss vere tings get a little more complicated for ze Rangers. Ze normal force does not apply here. Vy?”

I don’t know, Professor.

“Ach! Und you call yourzelf a pr-r-r-rognosticator! It is ze AB-normal force zat izz important here.”

And zat…I mean, that would be?

“You tell me, schmarty pents.”

Ovechkin?

“Zee? You do heff a brain!”

Well, we try.

“Don’t get carried avay…Now, you zee, ze ab-normal force applied to ze area of ze hockey rink can heff ver-r-r-r-ry interestink effects of ze outcome of the egg-shperiment.”

You mean the hockey game.

“Ja, vutt-ever…anyvay, ze ab-normal force in ziss instance is apr-r-r-roaching a constant.”

You mean the fact that he has a goal in each of his last three games.

“Ja! Ver-r-r-r-ry goot! You sure you aren’t a vizziks schtudent?”

Not since college, Prof.

“OK, now…vee contr-r-r-ol for ze Ovechkin factor, but vee heff not accounted for all ze variables on pressure. Vutt are vee missink?”

Tell us, Professor…

“Ah, you remember zat for every action, zere iss a reaction, ja?”

I seem to remember that…

“Vell, here, for vun Alex, vee heff a corresponding Alex egg-zerting force on ze hockey rink.”

You mean Semin.

“Egg-sackly!”

And he has more goals than Ovechkin in this series.

“Ja, but mit Semin, ze force is a bit more variable. He had vunn goal in Game Vun, no goals in Game Two, two goals in Game Three, did not heff vun in Game Four, had vun in Game Five, and vuss mitout vun in Game Six.”

So…

“Ze mass-a-matical function predicts he vill heff at least vun goal tonight.”

Can’t argue with that. But what about the other side of the rink? The Rangers haven’t ever lost a series in which they led three games to one. Is there any pressure on that side of the rink?

“Ah, you betcha!”

And there is, I suppose, some mathematical formula to show that?

“Nein…zey play in New York. Iff zey lose, zey vill never hear ze end of it until next Zeptember.”

What about Henrik Lundqvist? He was dominating early in the series, but he has been somewhat less than that in Games Five and Six. What sort of pressure is on him?

“More pressure zenn Don Koharski leaning up against a donut case.”

Good one, Prof.

“I’ve been zaving zat vun.”

But seriously, we hear that Lundqvist won’t have three bad games in a row. Anything to that?

“Vell, it’s not eggscakly unheard of. Earlier ziss year, he had three conzeckutiff games in which he allowed four or more goals.”

That would be December 23rd to December 29th, against the Caps, Devils, and Islanders, in which he allowed four, four, and five goals.

“Ja, and zeen zere iss zat real schinker of a run he had in early Dezember…”

Six, three, and eight goals allowed in consecutive games to Montreal, Calgary, and the Devils. He’s never done it in a playoff series, though.

“Ja, und until he allowed nine goals in two games against the Caps in 80 minutes, he hedd not allowed more than three goals in conzeckutiff games in ze playoffs, either.”

And, he’s allowed 14 goals in his last four games, covering 199:52 of play…that’s a 4.20 GAA.

“You’re pr-r-r-retty goot mit de mass-a-matiks your zelf.”

Thanks, Prof. I take it then, that there is more pressure on Lundqvist in this game?

“Oh, ab-zo-lutely. Zere iss a mooltiplier effect here. Iff you take ze lack of offense on ze part of ze Rangers…”

You mean six goals in their last five games…

“Ja, zat compunds ze problem for Lundqvist. Not only has he allowed zo many goals, but now, the Rangers heff to be sinking zat Lundqvist hess to…how do you say it?”

Pitch a shutout?

“Eggsackly! Pitch a shutout to vinn.”

And with the opposing forces of the constant of Ovechkin and the variable of Semin that would argue for some production in this game.

“It schpells ‘doom’ for ze Rangers.”

Nothing is guaranteed. All the Capitals have done in forcing a Game 7 is give themselves a chance to win a series they should, in fact, win. But the whole notion of pressure is, to our way of thinking, a product of sportwriters, fans, and Tony Kornheiser.

Players have dreamt about such moments since they were kids – Canadian boys on a pond dreaming it was Game 7 of a playoff game, and the puck is on their stick. European kids dreaming of perhaps making the big save to win an Olympic gold medal or World Championship. A youngster in New England with thoughts of stuffing home a rebound in the last second of a championship game.

Frankly, we’re thinking that fans are feeling more pressure than the players are.

For the players, it’s just a matter of going out to, as the late Herb Brooks put it, “play your game.” If both teams do that, the talent and the momentum are tilted steeply to the Capitals’ end of the ice. In a one-game playoff, a goalie – either goalie – could be an outsized factor. But the Capitals are deeper, more talented, on a roll. And the other goalie has had his struggles lately.

Tonight is the Capitals’ “final exam” of sorts, the product of lessons learned in last year’s Game 7 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. They’ve spent a year studying. Think they’ll pass, Professor?

“Oh, ja…based on ziss zimple arizzmetic, mit flying colors…”


Caps 4 – Rangers 1

Monday, April 27, 2009

Investigation Into Alleged Morrisonn Biting Takes a Turn

There is considerable anticipation this morning among Capitals and Rangers fans over the alleged incident involving Shaone Morrisonn and Brandon Dubinsky during yesterday’s 5-3 Caps win over the Rangers, one in which Morrisonn stands accused of having bitten Dubinsky. When the Ranger sought out a referee to show him the alleged damage inflicted by Morrisonn, Dubinsky was sent to the penalty box to serve a 10-minute misconduct penalty in addition to the roughing minor he earned in his scrap with Morrisonn.

Well, The Peerless has learned that a detailed examination of the Ranger was, in fact, performed after yesterday’s game, and we were able to obtain a partial transcript of the proceding, led by the renowned marine biologist and elasmobranchologist, Matt Hooper of the Oceanogaphic Institute…


Hooper: The height and weight of the victim can only be estimated from the partial remains. The torso has been severed in mid-thorax; there are no major organs remaining... well, at least his heart is missing…

Right arm has been severed above the elbow with massive tissue loss in the upper musculature... partially denuded bone remaining... This was no whirlpool accident! Did you notify the NHL league offices about this?

Ranger Official: No. Glen Sather just wrote a letter about the foul language Caps fans were using in Washington.

Hooper: The left arm, head, shoulders, sternum and portions of the rib cage are intact... Do not smoke in here, thank you very much!

This is what happens. It indicates the non-frenzied feeding of a large defenseman - possibly Erskimanus or Shaonus Morrisonnus. Now... the enormous amount of tissue loss prevents any detailed analysis; however the attacking defenseman must be considerably larger than any normal defenseman found on this Madison Square Garden ice. Didn't you watch these guys in the pre-game skate?

Ranger Official: No… we were proof reading Glen’s letter to make sure he spelled “egregious” right.

Hooper: Well, this is not a whirlpool accident! And it wasn't any locker room door; and it wasn't any hockey stick; and it wasn't Don Cherry! It was a defenseman.


This is not good news for Caps fans.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Sun Stops in Sky, Cats and Dogs Live Together, Rangers Offended by Words

A lot of outlets have reported on the letter sent by Rangers General Manager Glen Sather to NHL Commissioner on the "egregious" conduct on the part of Capitals fans in Game Five at Verizon Center last Friday. The alleged behavior led, ultimately, to the suspension of Ranger Coach John Tortorella for this afternoon's game at Madison Square Garden after he tossed a water bottle into the stands, hitting a Caps fan.

Having read the language of the letter, we were struck by this...

"Throughout the game, several people seated immediately behind the visitors' bench took advantage of the looseness of the glass panels and the unusually wide gaps between the panels to assault the Rangers with some of the most obscene language imaginable. Because of the way the glass is installed, the patron sitting behind Coach Tortorella (the gray-haired, bearded man in the white T-Shirt) could literally scream into the coach's ear. According to Rangers trainer Jim Ramsay, one patron was screaming at the team, in graphic language, about whether Dan Girardi and Marc Staal have a sexual relationship. This was within earshot of several children seated nearby. Several other fans also made repeated homophobic remarks. Moreover, Mr. Ramsay reported that he and other bench personnel were spit on by one or more "fans" as they yelled through the gaps in the glass."

It reminded us of a line offered by the comedian Lewis Black, who knows something of New York linguistic traditions...
“In New York City, f*ck isn’t a word—it’s a comma.”
Maybe Glen is looking to have the league spot the Rangers two goals for Game 7 on Tuesday.

We've heard it all.

Morrisonn Bites Dubinsky -- The Visual Evidence Is In


There you have it...Shaone Morrisonn done bit Brandon Dubinsky's arm clean off at the elbow, but trooper he is, Dubinsky soldiered on (as depicted here with Brooks Laich about to lose his pre game meal at the sight of the wound).

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 6: Caps 5 - Rangers 3


.735

If you’re a hitter in major league baseball, that’s a helluva slugging percentage. If you’re an NBA basketball player, it’s a passable free throw shooting percentage. If you’re an NFL quarterback, it’s a fantastic completion percentage.

If you’re an NHL goalie, and that’s your save percentage, you suck.

And yet, that is Henrik Lundqvist’s save percentage (nine goals allowed on 34 shots) in the last two games, the latter being a 5-3 win by the Caps to force a Game 7 on Tuesday night at Verizon Center. He was pulled in both contests, the first time in his career he was pulled in consecutive games.

One could say that the Caps have found that hole they’ve been looking for on Lundqvist – high glove (gee, as if there isn’t a goaltender who can’t be beaten there), but that would be simplistic. What the Caps have done is create space for shooters to get shots off before Lundqvist can get square to the shot. And, the Caps have crowded Lundqvist’s crease to manage getting opportunities from in tight.

Of the former, nothing illustrated that more than the first two Capitals goals of the game. Milan Jurcina scored the first of them when he collected a pass and without a Ranger impeding the path launched a shot past Lundqvist on the glove side. But that was merely the end of a process. It started with Brooks Laich harassing Nikolai Zherdev along the far wall, enough that Zherdev coughed up the puck, whereupon Matt Bradley took control of it, sidestepping Zherdev and nudging the biscuit down the wall to David Steckel. With his back to the play, Steckel flicked the puck to Laich, who had circled back into the play. Laich slid it across to Jurcina, and before defenseman Paul Mara could recover to get into the shooting lane, Jurcina let fly for the goal. It started with pressure in the Ranger zone and kept the defense from establishing their shot blocking stance that has been so important to the Rangers in nullifying the Caps offense for much of the series.

The second goal – off the stick of Mike Green – involved the sort of random chance that occurs on power plays. Tom Poti backpedalled with the puck from the left wing point to the top of the Ranger zone, then fed Alexander Semin in the left win g faceoff circle. Semin hitched, then fired, the puck deflecting out to Green on the other side of the play. No Ranger was in a position to challenge Green, and without that sort of challenge, Green launched a shot that beat Lundqvist…on the glove side.

After that, it was the Capitals’ transition game that was on display. First, Marc Staal was pinned along the left wing boards with nowhere to go and no puck in his possession. It left Dan Girardi alone to defend a 3-on-1 breaking the other way, Tom Poti leading David Steckel and Boyd Gordon the other way. Poti fed Gordon in the middle, who pushed the puck off to Steckel, who threaded a pass to Poti at the near post, and it was all over before Lundqvist could step back across to keep the puck out of the net.

The second instance was much more basic. Tom Poti collected the puck in the far corner of the defensive zone and pushed it ahead to Viktor Kozlov at the Capitals’ line. Kozlov skated out of the zone, pushing Marc Staal off as he sped (or at least as much as Kozlov “speeds”) toward the Ranger end. At the Ranger line, Kozlov pulled the puck inside, and Staal got his feet scrambled, allowing Kozlov to cut for the net. Just before crashing into Lundqvist, Kozlov lifted the puck over the sprawled goalie, and the rout was on.

All that was left was a pretty deflection by Alex Ovechkin of a Tom Poti drive, and some window dressing stat padding for the Rangers. And all of a sudden, from a 3-1 hole, the Caps have a chance – a chance, mind you – to win a game 7 for only the second time in franchise history after being down 3-1.

Other stuff…

- Nikolai Zherdev was, to be charitable, awful. Between his shying away from a Brooks Laich hit that led directly to the Jurcina goal to missing an open net on a backhand when the score was still only 3-1 nine minutes into the second period, Zherdev had a difficult time. For the series he has no points and is a minus-3.

- Scott Gomez had a nice deflection off a Wade Redden shot from the point for a Ranger goal and assisted on a goal by Ryan Callahan, but he continued his own difficulties, finishing the afternoon having been on the ice for two goals – going minus-2 – and losing 11 of 19 draws.

- Much was made at the start of this series about Marc Staal and Dan Girardi getting the assignment of defending the Caps’ big guns. That defensive pair was on the ice for goals three, four, and five for the Caps.

- Let’s face it though…eight power plays allowed (including two 5-on-3 situations) is a recipe for disaster against most teams, even the Rangers in a Game 7. The Caps took a whopping 11 minor penalties and spent a total of 12:29 shorthanded.

- OK, so… a Shaone Morrisonn hat trick is what… a hit, a penalty, and a chomp?

- Simeon Varlamov has been very good. He hasn’t been called upon to be great, at least not very often, and today was another case in point. In the five games in which Varlamov has played, he has faced only 130 shots. Today he faced 32, but only allowed one goal on the first 24 shots he faced, when the game was still in doubt, and only 23 shots came at even strength. The Caps have been playing pretty well in front of him. But his stop on Brandon Dubinsky on a 2-on-1 after Dubinsky screwed John Erskine into the ice at the blue line with a move was huge. The Caps scored the first goal of the game immediately after the ensuing TV time out.

- The Rangers have a total of six goals on those 130 shots, half of them coming in this game, and two of those long after the competitive portion of the afternoon had been completed.

- In the past two games Alex Ovechkin has played “only” 20:21 and 20:50 of ice time. As if he needs more energy.

- At the other end, John Erskine passed the 20 minute ice time mark for the first time in the series. It was the most ice time he’s had since getting 21:21 against Pittsburgh on January 14th and is the second highest ice time mark he’s had this year.

- The Rangers were 5-for-18 on defensive zone draws. Wrong way to stop a team that has found its offensive stroke.

- This was the first four-point game for Tom Poti since February 19, 2004, when he registered four assists as his Rangers beat the Islanders, 6-2. Surprisingly, Poti was not one of the three stars of that game (Jaromir Jagr, Matthew Barnaby, Mike Dunham).

- Picking up on a theme we noted in the pregame, Henrik Lundqvist is now 1-5, 3.99, .870 in playoff games past Game Four of a series for his career.

- We’ll be very surprised if Donald Brashear dresses for Game 7. The hit on Blair Betts was suspension-worthy. There just isn’t any way to sugar coat it or explain it away. Betts was vulnerable in open ice, did not have the puck, and got blindsided by Brashear. It was an ugly footnote to an otherwise excellent Capitals performance on the road.

- It’s worth noting that Brashear’s day ended, not on the Betts hit, but upon his taking a hooking penalty 3:53 into the second period. He served his time, skated back across to the Caps bench upon its expiration, and did not see the ice again.

Before the series started, Rangers coach John Tortorella said that “home ice only comes into effect in Game 7." Well, here we are. One game – in Washington’s arena – for the right to play in May. But this is, as we harped on early, first to four, not first to three. And that fourth one – as the Caps so painfully learned last year – is the hardest of all to win. We’re going to find out if that was a lesson learned well, because if the Caps play as well and with as much focus as they have shown in Games Five and Six, the ending should be much more to the liking of the boys and their fans than was the case last year.

Flyers Lose, At Least One Person Drowns Sorrows

You want to read that caption of the picture below (click on it for a larger view) and tell The Peerless it wasn't written by a bitter fan who had a long night?

The Caps are playing the Hickory Huskers this afternoon


We get it!

What a coaching genius John Tortorella is. The whole thing – the water bottle, the stick, the confrontation, even the dealing with the unruly player the game before…we get it!

Oh, how could we have missed this? Torts knows his team is an offense-challenged group of rag-tags up against the goal-scoring behemoth from South Bend Centr…uh, Washington.

It’s “Hoosiers,” all over again.

Torts is Coach Norman Dale, banished to the hinterland from his last coaching job, brought in to light a fire under a team in what might be his last chance as a headmaster. He had already brought in Jim Schoenfeld as an “interim” assistant coach before this series, Schoenfeld himself being a former coach who hadn’t been behind an NHL bench in ten years.

So now Tortorella goes off during a game, gets suspended, and has to turn the whole thing over to Shooter...uh, Schoeny, for this afternoon’s game.

The only thing that’s left for Schoeny is to bring the kids over in the last minute and tell them to “run the picket fence at ‘em.”

Just don't get caught watchin' the paint dry!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 6 -- Caps vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Game Six in this first round series between the New York Rangers and the Capitals, and with all the twists and turns it has taken, it seems as if this series began in November.

But today, we are thinking…”paper.”


That’s right, paper. In our never ending search for the horse that escaped the barn before the door was closed, we came across this site, and their award-winning design for a paper water bottle.

That’s right, a paper water bottle. If the Rangers had stumbled upon this idea, John Tortorella would have had a better chance of being behind the Ranger bench this afternoon. As it is, he will be sitting this one out, the victim, if you will, of a suspension from the league for heaving a water bottle into the stands at a fan who was suggesting that perhaps the Rangers needed to actually score a goal to win a hockey game. Tortorella, like just about everyone else on the Ranger bench, missed his target and conked a female season ticket holder in the noggin.

And here we thought “Propel” was a brand of water, not a how-to-use direction for the consumer.

“A quick temper will make a fool of you soon enough."

Cheerless?

"Hey cuz…"

Is that something you made up?

"Nope…Bruce Lee...'Men are like steel. When they lose their temper, they lose their worth.'”

Ben Franklin?

"Nope...Chuck Norris...'The one who cannot restrain their anger will wish undone, what their temper and irritation prompted them to do.'”

And who said that?

“Horace.”

Horace?

“Yeah, he didn’t give me his last name.”

OK, we’ll forgive our cousin for not knowing of the Roman poet Quintus Horatius Flaccus (even the Romans knew the value of teamwork – all their names seem to end in “us”). But there is a game to play here, and for all the side show pyrotechnics – Avery, Tortorella, yada yada, yada – it all comes down to one thing, and at this point one thing only.

Henrik Lundqvist.

If Lundqvist is not on this afternoon, the Rangers will not win. And now we’re getting into some pretty interesting territory for Lundqvist. And that territory is out in the deep blue, as it were, water of playoff series that go beyond four games. Including Friday’s meltdown against the Caps, Lundqvist has played in five such games in his career, and in them, he has been less “King Henrik,” and more “Hank”…

1-4, 3.51, .886.

And here is the ominous part for the Rangers. In a combined eight man games going past the Game Four mark, the Alexes – Ovechkin and Semin – have combined for six goals. In none of the games were both held without a goal. A small universe of games, to be sure, and Martin Biron -- against whom much of that record was compiled -- isn’t Henrik Lundqvist (although Lundqvist’s efforts in Games Five and Six look somewhat Bironesque), but the matchups will be in clear focus in this game.

For the Rangers at the other end of the ice, you have to hope – if you’re a Caps fan – that Scott Gomez does not revert to form for Game Six. In each of his four playoff years preceding this, Gomez was at least a point-per-game performer. He was on track for that after Game One, in which he went 1-2-3, but he hasn’t had a point since.

Chris Drury is a different problem. He came into this series with the reputation of being a clutch performer. But that is a reputation earned more for what he did before becoming a Ranger. In 114 playoff games before signing with New York, Drury scored 43 goals, 15 of them game-winners. In 14 games with the Rangers, he has four goals, two of them of the game-winning variety (including one in this series). If the Alexes are on at all, then Gomez and Drury have to answer if the Rangers are to stay in it.

Perhaps the wild card in all of this isn’t even a player. Jim Schoenfeld, who will assume the coaching duties for the Rangers on Sunday afternoon, has coached in nine playoff series in his own coaching career with three different teams, including the Capitals. Another ominous note for the Rangers – Schoenfeld has lost his last five series in the playoffs behind an NHL bench.

What comes to mind at this point is wrestling – a sport of strength and endurance, but also one of leverage. And the Caps have put themselves in position to exert and to take advantage of a certain amount of psychic leverage here. A franchise that has been victim, in the eyes of its fans, of misfortune over three decades, has seen the stars align to perhaps give them the advantage heading into Game Six. A player succumbs to the stupidity of selfish play… his coach chides him, sits him, then the coach goes off on his own adventure in temper… the impenetrable goaltender is found – and made – to be human after all…

If the Caps can get a lead in New York, it could be the last bit of leverage they need to wrestle control of the series away from the Rangers. It says here that they will…

Caps 4 – Rangers 2