Washington Capitals -- That Was The Week That Was: Week 10

Marking time.  That was what the week that was...was.  And from where the Caps stand, that just won't be enough to make up the points they need to reach the playoffs.  Making it worse was that it could have been a lot better.

Record: 1-1-1 (season: 16-17-2 (34 pts) / rank: 3^rd SE / 11^th East)

The Caps were, in a sense, “upside down” this week.  They lost at home to the New York Islanders, then they took three of four points on the road.  It made for the seventh consecutive non-losing week for the Caps over which they are 13-9-1.  That is a 96-point full season pace, but whether that pace is going to be sufficient to overtake three teams ahead of the Caps or Carolina and Winnipeg to win the Southeast Division.

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 2.86 / rank: 8^th)

The Caps came from behind in all three games this week, three times overcoming two goal deficits, twice in the same game (against Buffalo).  The flip side of that is that the Caps got off to poor starts.  They had one first period goal for the week, shooting 1-for-29 overall (3.4 percent).  Ten different Caps shared in points this week, seven split the nine goals scored, Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green each getting a pair.  The big number for the week (and we do mean “big”) is this” 44.  That is how many shot attempts Alex Ovechkin recorded in four games – 20 shots on goal, 13 shots blocked, and 11 missed shots.

Defense: 3.67/game (season: 2.89 / rank: T-20^th)

The flip side of the Caps’ slow starts on offense was falling behind the eight ball in the first period with goals allowed.  Five of the 11 goals allowed this week came in the first period.  Three opponents shot 5-for-21 in the first period.  The shots allowed were not so much a problem – seven first period shots in each of the three contests – as much as it might have been…

Goaltending: 4.28, .875 (season: 2.85, .909, 4 shutouts)

Braden Hotlby played every minute this week, and one gets the feeling he needs a break.  He has figured in the last eight decisions for the Caps, going 5-2-1, but this week he struggled at times.  That .762 save percentage in the first periods of games put a lot of pressure on this teammates to spend a lot of effort coming back in games, and when that happens, a 1-1-1 record is what results, even against three teams that were behind the Caps in the standings. 

Power Play: 3-14 / 21.4 percent (season: 24.4 percent / rank: 2^nd)

At some point, teams are going to adjust to what the Caps are doing.  But for the time being, the Caps’ power play is formidable – another 20-plus percent week.  One does wonder, though, if that point of adjustment is going to come sooner rather than later.  Of the last seven power play goals scored by the Caps, Alex Ovechkin has five of them.  He had two of the three extra-man tallies this week, scoring goals in the only two games in which he recorded power play shots (1-for-3 against both Buffalo and Philadelphia).  The takeaway on the power play this week might be the difficulty the Caps had with a full two-minute 5-on-3 power play against the Flyers.  They managed three shots on goal, but two of them were long range drives by Ovechkin.  The power play so formidable at 5-on-4 was not with the extra man off the ice for the Flyers. 

Penalty Killing: 6-8 / 75.0 percent (season: 77.0 percent / rank: T-27^th)

The Caps were one power play goal from being pretty good this week.  It was that one puck that squirted through Braden Holtby that was lying still in the crease that Ville Leino poked in for the Sabres that made the results for the week so-so.  But there was still the efficient 16-second power play the Flyers had, scoring just those few seconds after Troy Brouwer took a holding penalty with the Caps up two goals in Philadelphia.  The key remains for this team to stay out of the box, because mechanically they are not a very good penalty killing team.

Paying the Price: 57 hits / 42 blocked shots (season rank: 23^rd / 12^th)

The thing here is that the Caps seem to be slipping through the rankings.  And the hits might be a bit of a concern.  Buffalo and Philadelphia outhit the Caps by a combined 57-35.  If might be hometown scoring effects at play there, but it is a fair question -- are the Caps going to be tough enough down the stretch?

Faceoffs: 89-for-170 / 52.4 percent (season: 50.7 percent / rank: 14^th)

Winning is better than losing anywhere on the ice, but then again, it is hard to get too excited about the 52.4 percent result in the circle for the week.  The Caps were a combined 49.6 percent in the offensive and defensive ends, 57.9 percent on neutral zone draws.

Turnovers: minus-17

One word for this, “ugh.”

In the end…

The wheels were wobbly this week.  A loss in regulation to the New York Islanders – a thoroughly beatable team, a come-from-behind trick shot win over Buffalo, and an overtime loss to Philadelphia when they held a two-goal lead in the third period and a one-goal lead with 11 seconds left in regulation.  With the Caps on the wrong side of the playoff divide, it was not good enough.  And it was the third periods of the games beginning and ending the week that did them in.  Had the Caps at least held their own in those games, they would have forced extra time against the Islanders and won in Philadelphia.  That would have been two extra points, at a minimum, and the Caps would be in eighth place, one point ahead of the Rangers.  If “cautious optimism” were the watch words we spoke of as last week ended, after this week the obvious word that comes to mind is…

“frustration.”

A ONE-point night -- Game 35: Flyers 5 - Capitals 4 (OT)

Live by the last minute goal, die by the last minute goal.

The Washington Capitals experienced both in the space of 24 hours, coming back from a two-goal deficit on Saturday night to tie the Buffalo Sabres in the last minute of regulation before overtaking them, 4-3, in a Gimmick, then failing to hold a two-goal lead against the Philadelphia Flyers, allowing a tying goal with ten second left before dropping a 5-4 overtime decision in Philadelphia.

The game between the Capitals and Flyers was entertaining, but one also could see why both teams are on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  Washington owned the first ten minutes of the game, scoring first on a Nicklas Backstrom goal when he tipped a shot by Jack Hillen out of mid-air and outshooting the Flyers, 7-0, in the first 9:30 of the contest. 

The Flyers then took over, scoring on their second shot of the game at the 10:26 mark, courtesy of Max Talbot, then scoring just over four minutes later on a breakaway by Matt Read.  As dominant as the Caps had been over the first ten minutes, so were the Flyers in the last ten minutes of the period, and it was the Flyers taking a 2-1 lead into the first intermission.

The Caps had the only tally of the second period, Mike Green getting his fifth of the season when he broke out of the penalty box after serving a holding penalty, taking a long lead pass from Brooks Laich, and beating goalie Ilya Bryzgalov to tie the game.

It made for a bizarre, wonderful, tragic, and head-scratching finish in the third period and overtime.  The bizarre came when Steve Oleksy dropped Claude Giroux with what looked to be a clean check in open ice.  Jakub Voracek came to his teammate’s defense, his head in the right place, but unfortunately for him, protected by a helmet and a visor.  Voracek got two for instigating, five for fighting, an extra two for instigating while wearing a visor, and a ten-minute misconduct.  With Oleksy getting only five for fighting, the Caps had a four-minute power play.

To that point the Caps’ power play was pitiful, getting only three shots in four power play opportunities.  But this time the Caps made the Flyers pay, converting both ends of the double minor penalty.  The first came off a turnover by Claude Giroux that ended up on the stick of Marcus Johansson, who wristed a shot past Bryzgalov to give the Caps the lead.  Just 26 seconds later, John Carlson – who appears to have mastered the feed for the one timer – set up Alex Ovechkin for just that, Ovechkin wiring the puck past Bryzgalov’s blocker to give what appeared to be an insurmountable 4-2 Caps lead with 13:12 left in regulation.

However, just as the Caps came back from a two-goal third period deficit on Saturday night against Buffalo, the Flyers would put the Caps on the other side of that ledger.  Giroux made up for his earlier miscue with a one-timer of his own from the left wing circle at the 12:48 mark, leaving the Caps clinging to a 4-3 lead.  The Caps held that lead for 7:02.  Trouble was, they needed to hold it for 7:12.  The Flyers tied the game with ten seconds left in regulation in the cruelest fashion.  Just as Mike Green tied the game on Saturday night by ringing a shot off the post and off the goalie with 39.2 seconds left in regulation, so did Kimmo Timonen fire one off the pipe and in behind goalie Braden Holtby with just those ten ticks left. 

In the overtime, the Flyers made short work of it, Timonen figuring heavily in the game-winner, too, with his feed to an open Ruslan Fedotenko to Holtby’s right.  The pass barely eluded the stick of defenseman John Carlson, but elude the stick it did, and Fedotenko had an open net in which he buried the game-winner.

Other stuff…

-- Needless to say, if the Caps miss the playoffs by one point, this is the standings point they will have nightmares about all summer.  Losing a lead with ten seconds left is not what teams with playoff aspirations do.  And the Timonen goal to tie the game was really more than a minute in the making.  Defensemen Steve Oleksy and Jeff Schultz stepped onto the ice with 1:26 left to play.  You would figure that they might skate a 35-40 second shift and get off for the final shutdown pair.  That would have worked but for a dubious icing call with 49 seconds left, a result of Timonen (who should have been the first star of the game) taking the great circle route to catch up with the puck.  Prohibited from changing out his defensemen, head coach Adam Oates had to stand and watch, depending on a faceoff win and a clear to swap out his defensemen.  Claude Giroux beat Nicklas Backstrom cleanly on the ensuing faceoff, and the Caps could never clear the puck out of the zone.  Thirty-nine seconds after winning that faceoff and pinning the Caps in their own end, Timonen scored with the exhausted Oleksy and Schultz still on the ice.

-- Another game, another power play goal for Alex Ovechkin.  His power play tally in the third period was his 12^th power play goal of the season (tops in the league) and his fifth over his last seven games.  He is on a 8-4-12 scoring run over his last eight games.

-- Ovechkin’s six shots on goal and 16 shot attempts give him 16 shots on goal on 33 shot attempts over his last two games.

-- At the other end, Mike Ribeiro did not record a shot attempt in almost 21 minutes of ice time, the only Cap to do so.

-- Mike Green’s goal gave him markers in consecutive games for the first time since he recorded goals in four consecutive games from October 30-November 7, 2010.

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s goal makes it three in six games after recording three in his first 29 games.  Backstrom is 3-6-9 over his last eight games.

-- Marcus Johansson had his fourth multi-point game in his last eight contests.  Over that span he is 3-6-9.  “3-6-9” must be a Swedish thing.

-- The seven power play chances were the most for the Caps since they had eight back on January 25^th against New Jersey.  They lost that game in overtime, too, 3-2.

-- The Caps allowed a power play goal tonight, the third time in four games that they have allowed one.  They have not won any of those games in regulation (two Gimmick wins, a regulation loss, and tonight’s overtime loss).

-- Getting eight shots on seven power plays is not especially impressive, and it is made worse by allowing four shorthanded shots on goal.

-- Karl Alzner was minus-3, the first time he finished a game there since he was a minus-3 against the New York Rangers in a 5-4 Gimmick loss on February 11, 2009.

-- Steve Oleksy had five blocked shots.  That vaulted him into fourth on the team in blocked shots with 33 in just 15 games.

-- The Caps finished the month 9-6-1, a 97-point pace per 82 games.

In the end, it was a lost opportunity for the Caps.  Had they won this game they would be ninth place, behind the Rangers for eighth place by virtue of the Rangers holding a game in hand.  As it is, the Caps remain in 11^th place, tied with Carolina in points but with the Hurricanes holding two games in hand.  It sets up Tuesday’s game in North Carolina as being just that much more important.  As for the weekend, it was a case of winning a game they should have lost and losing a game they should have won.  Three points out of four on the road would almost always be looked upon as a good thing.  But it is that point that got away that is going to linger, at least until late Tuesday night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 35: Capitals at Flyers, March 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their thrilling 4-3 skills competition win over the Buffalo Sabres in upstate New York, head down to south Philadelphia to visit the rugged Flyers in an early evening…

“Rugged?... good one, cuz.”

What, you think the Flyers lack a certain edge? 

“Cousin, have you been reading the papers?”

I like to think I keep up with current events.

“Well, geez, cuz, even I can see that the Flyers have lost eight of their last 11 games.  And, they have only 23 goals scored in those 11 games.”

Cheerless, I’m impressed.

“They ain’t Flyers, they’re die…ers.”

Well, nice try.

“You have to give him an ‘A’ for effort…”

There is that, Fearless.

The Flyers are in the midst of a late-season swoon, going 3-6-2 over their last 11 games, getting outscored by a 35-23 margin.  They have not been able to string together consecutive wins since they beat Washington and Ottawa more than a month ago.  And what it means is that even with their 3-1 win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday afternoon, the Flyers are in 14^th place in the Eastern Conference.

Offensively over those 11 games, it has not been a case of being bad as much as it has been being just not good enough.  Jakub Voracek is 5-5-10 over those 11 games and can be said to be carrying at least a fair share of the scoring load.  However, Claude Giroux, of whom more might have been expected so far, has three goals in those last 11 games.  Good, but not quite what the Flyers need.  Ditto for Scott Hartnell.  Having played in only 18 games as a result of suffering a broken foot earlier in the season, Hartnell has three goals over the Flyers’ last 11 games.  For a guy who had a career-high 37 goals last year, it is not bad, just not good enough.

Here is what the Flyers are not getting offensively – any offense from their defensemen.  Only one of the 23 goals scored by the Flyers over the last 11 games has come from a blueliner, that coming from Kimmo Timonen back on March 7^th in a 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh.  It also happens to be the last time the Flyers scored more than three goals in a game (the streak with three or fewer now at nine games).  In fact, that goal by Timonen is the only goal by a Flyer defenseman over Philadelphia’s last 15 games.

Ilya Bryzgalov has appeared in goal in each of the 11 games in this 3-6-2 slide.  His record of 3-5-2 over that span (Brian Boucher has the other decision) is consistent with a 3.13 goals against average and a .892 save percentage.  It is not as if this record is all that different from his season marks.  He is another of those “second page” goalies in the NHL.com statistical rankings – 35^th of 48 goalies in goals against average (2.77) and 36^th in save percentage (.902).

These are not your father’s Flyers.  And here is how they compare to the Caps overall this season…

1.  In one sense, the lack of scoring from the Philadelphia defense and the leaky defense generally should be of little surprise.  Of the eight players listed in the tsn.ca injury listings (the source for the table above), six are defensemen, and five of them are on injured reserve.

2. Of the 28 players to dress for the Flyers this season, only three have “plus” totals: Ruslan Fedotenko (plus-6), Max Talbot (plus-1), and Tye McGinn (plus-1); and McGinn has played in only 17 games.  On the other hand, 19 players are in minus territory, and five of them are minus-10 or worse.

3.  Think the “sophomore slump” is a myth?  Well, perhaps sometimes, but in the case of Sean Couturier it would seem to apply.  Last season Couturier was 13-14-27, plus-18 in 77 games.  Through 32 games this season the sophomore is 2-6-8, minus-13 and has the 15^th highest number of goals scored against among forwards while on ice.

4.  No team has scored more power play goals than the Flyers (32), and only one team -- New Jersey -- has scored fewer goals at 5-on-5 than the Flyers (50).

5.  Mike Knuble has a third of the Flyers’ goals over the last two games (two of six).  With four goals in 20 games this season, he is in striking distance of matching his total with the Caps last season (six in 72 games).

1.  Nicklas Backstrom has taken over the team lead in assists for the Capitals (25).  He has six helpers in his last seven games.

2.  Even though the Capitals outshot the Buffalo Sabres, 38-23, in their 4-3 Gimmick win on Saturday, the Caps have out-shot opponents only nine times in 34 games. They are tied with Edmonton for the fewest instances of outshooting opponents.  It is, perhaps, unfortunate since the Caps have the fourth best winning percentage when outshooting opponents (6-3-0, .667).

3. From the “do power plays matter” file… the Caps are 13-9-1 when scoring at least one power play goal and 6-7-1 when they get at least four power play opportunities.  On the other hand, the Caps are 3-9-1 when allowing more than three power play opportunities, 4-14-1 when allowing a power play goal. The answer is, “it depends.”

4.  Jason Chimera recorded two shots on goal (and one expletive) against Buffalo on Saturday. That broke a string of three games in which he did not record a shot on goal, which happened to be his longest run of games without a shot on goal since he went four games without one from March 28-April 3, 2010.

5.  Troy Brouwer’s shorthanded goal on Saturday night was his first as a Capital and his first since November 25, 2009, when he scored for the Chicago Blackhawks in a 7-2 win over the San Jose Sharks.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia:  Claude Giroux.

Claude Giroux has come alive of late, going 2-4-6 in his last five games.  He has been winning faceoffs – 50 percent or better in nine of his last ten games.  He has been logging big minutes, topping 20 minutes of ice time in 17 of his last 21 games without consecutive games under 20 minutes.  And yet, the Flyers are struggling.  With as many injuries as the Flyers have had to contend with, Giroux is going to have to find another gear in his game if the Flyers are going to make a chase for the playoffs. He had a goal and an assist in a 4-1 win over the Caps on February 27^th and is 7-3-10, minus-2, in 15 career games against Washington.

Washington: Mathieu Perreault

No one was more excited on the Washington bench after Saturday night’s win over Buffalo than Mathieu Perreault.  Now, it is time to apply that enthusiasm to the ice.  Actually, that enthusiasm is there, but the results have not been lately.  Since he had a three-goals-in-four-games stretch earlier this month, he is without a goal in his last six games and has only seven shots on goal in those games.  Secondary scoring is important to the Caps as they start their stretch run, and Perreault is going to have to be a part of that.  He is 1-1-2, minus-1 in seven career games against the Flyers.

Keys:

1.  Storm the wall.  It was rather noticeable in the win over the Sabres that the Caps were not winning a lot of battles along the wall.  Philadelphia will be even stiffer competition in that area of the rink.  The Caps cannot play just between the faceoff dots.  They will have to give as good as they get along the boards.

2.  Win the first period.  The Flyers have the worst record in the league when trailing after 20 minutes.  They are a perfect 0-12-0 when behind at the first intermission.  That has been a challenge for the Caps, as noted above, having carried a lead into the first intermission only nine times in 34 games.

3.  Buzz Bryz.  If Ilya Bryzgalov starts this game and has a save percentage below .900, the Flyers have almost no chance of winning.  Bryzgalov has failed to hit the .900 save percentage mark in 13 appearances this season.  The Flyers’ record in those games is 1-12-0.

In the end, one is good, but two is better.  The Caps got off to a good start on this three-game road trip with their come-from-behind win over Buffalo on Saturday.  They will need to take it up a notch against a club that is still formidable in its own building (10-5-2 at Wells Fargo Center).  A win in this one, and the Caps could find themselves in ninth place, tied with the eighth-place New York Rangers in standings points (the Rangers would hold a lead based on fewer games played).  That would set up perhaps the season’s most important game for the Caps on Tuesday against Carolina.  But first things first.  There are Flyers to bring to earth.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 3

A TWO-point night -- Game 34: Capitals 4 - Sabres 3 (OT/Gimmick)

For 22 minutes, the Washington Capitals looked as if they might go meekly into the spring sunset against the Buffalo Sabres at First Niagara Center.  But after falling behind by a pair of goals twice, the Caps roared back in the third period to tie the game, then win it, 4-3, when Matt Hendricks and Alex Ovechkin earned perfect 10’s on the judges’ scorecards in the freestyle competition.

The game started poorly for the Caps.  Christian Ehrhoff snapped a shot off the post and behind Caps goalie Braden Holtby 3:01 into the game to give the Sabres a 1-0 lead.  That is how things stayed for the rest of the first period and a minute into the second frame.  Then, Ville Leino put the Sabres up by a pair when he stuffed in a rebound of a Tyler Ennis shot past Holtby at the 1:19 mark of the period.

At that point, things looked grim, but Alex Ovechkin stopped the bleeding.  And we don’t mean his stitched up chin.  With Ennis off for tripping and the Caps on a power play, the Sabres did the unthinkable.  Defenseman Mike Weber and forward Steve Ott stood in place on the left side of the ice and watched Ovechkin circle around the edge of the left wing circle with the puck.  Neither was in a position to defend when Ovechkin then ripped a wrist shot over goalie Jhonas Enroth’s glove to get the Caps within a goal just 62 seconds after the Leino goal.

Leino restored the Sabres’ two-goal lead midway through the period when he poked a loose puck lying behind Holtby the last 18 inches, and that was how the second period ended, the Sabres on top by a 3-1 margin.  The third period was something else altogether.  With John Carlson off for the Caps for a delay of game penalty, Braden Holtby stopped a dump-in behind his own net.  He reversed the puck, sending it back up the left wing wall where it eluded Andrej Sekera.  It was enough to spring Troy Brouwer free with Nicklas Backstrom on a 2-on-1 break, Jason Pominville back for the Sabres.  Brouwer held the puck as he glided in, and as Pominville slid across, Brouwer snapped a shot to the short side past Enroth’s blocker to get the Caps within a goal once more at 3-2 with 2:43 gone in the third period.

Despite dominating territory over the next 17 minutes, it looked as if Enroth had every answer for the Caps’ efforts.  Then, with Holtby pulled for an extra attacker, Enroth’s luck ran out.  The Caps set up as if it was a power play, deploying in a 2-3-1 formation with the extra attacker, Joel Ward being the extra forward down low and Mike Green at the top of the zone.  It succeeded in keeping the puck in the Sabres’ zone, the Caps feeding Green as the trigger man.  The first time Green was set up, his shot from the high point went wide.  But the rebound off the boards came to Nicklas Backstrom at the right wing wall.  Backstrom fed Green again, and after a hitch in his windup, Green made good.  His slap shot hit the post to Enroth’s right, rebounded back and off Enroth’s right shoulder, then back into the net to tie the game with just 39.2 seconds left in regulation.

That is how the 60-minute portion of the game ended, and after a five-minute overtime in which each team recorded a pair of shots, the contest went to the skills competition.  Buffalo chose to shoot first, and Jason Pominville rang his shot off the left post behind Holtby.  It was the last bit of room the Caps needed.  Matt Hendricks resurrected his “paralyzer” move, beating Enroth to the blocker side.  Then, after Tyler Ennis was stuffed on his shot attempt, Alex Ovechkin skated out as the potential game-winning trick shot.  Ovechkin skated slowly in, and with Enroth looking as if he was expecting one more move, Ovechkin snapped a shot through the five hole of a frozen in place Enroth to give the Caps the extra standings point.

Other stuff…

-- The 38 shots on goal for the Caps was the most they recorded in a game since they peppered Carolina for 40 on February 26^th.  Over their previous 15 games the Caps had reached the 30-shot mark only once (33 in a 4-1 loss to Boston on March 16^th).  Conversely, the 23 shots allowed was only the second time over the Caps’ last 17 games that they allowed fewer than 30 shots.

-- The win in extra time preserved a mark for the Caps.  Only one team in the league has fewer losses in extra time than the Caps, who have but one such loss.  Pittsburgh has not yet lost in extra time.

-- The Caps had 66 shot attempts for the game.  Alex Ovechkin had 17 of them (and we believe the official scorer missed two other missed shots late in the third period).  His ten shots on goal was a season high and was the most he had in a single game since recording ten shots on goal in a 5-2 win over Tampa Bay on February 4, 2011.

-- The two point game for Mike Green (1-1-2) was his second of the season and first since a two-point effort in a 3-2 overtime loss to New Jersey on January 25^th, the Caps only extra time loss this season.

-- It was a four-square night for Mike Ribeiro, or rather “four-cubed".  Four shots on goal, four faceoff wins, four faceoff losses. It seemed as if each of Ribeiro’s shots were excellent chances, including what was the save of the game when Ribeiro pounced on a rebound to the left of Enroth.  With the goalie down, Ribeiro had an almost empty net at which to shoot.  Even though it was a tough angle shot, Ribeiro had the advantage of having the puck on his forehand, but Enroth managed to get his glove up from a prone position and snare Ribeiro’s drive.

-- For the most part, Jack Hillen had a tough game.  But he gritted out a second-highest among Cap defensemen 25:19 of ice time, including 3:01 of ice time in the overtime.

-- Brooks Laich had a bit of difficulty in this one.  In 19:33 of ice time he did not attempt a shot on goal, won only three of ten draws, and looked to take a skate toe in the leg when he threw a hip check.

--  Ovechkin’s power play goal made it a league-leading 11^th for him, and it was the sixth time in the last seven games that the Caps recorded a power play goal.  Ovechkin has four of them.

-- Consider these time on ice numbers:  27:16, 25:19, 24:55, 21:45, 13:44, 11:05.  What two look out of place?  Yeah, those are the ice time numbers for the defense, and the last two are those of Steve Oleksy and Jeff Schultz.

-- Joel Ward…no shots, no shot attempts, no hits, no giveaways, no takeaways, no blocked shots, no faceoffs taken.  But for a plus-1 (the Green game-tying goal), he had a clean score sheet.  Yeah, and Buffalo didn’t score any goals with him on the ice, either.  We'll call that a pretty good game.

In the end…

(image: SB*Nation)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 34: Capitals at Sabres, March 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Ah, Cherry blossom time in Washington.

The trees are about to bloom, the city is abuzz with tourists and sightseers, and the air is fresh and clean.

Meanwhile the Washington Capitals are in Buffalo.  Figures, doesn’t it?  But Buffalo is where the Capitals might be making what will be their last push to play meaningful hockey this spring.  This road trip – starting in Buffalo before heading to Philadelphia and Raleigh – is the last long stretch of games away from Verizon Center this season.  By the time the Caps return they could be over .500 for the first time this season (if they sweep the three games), or they could be 13 points behind Winnipeg for the Southeast Division lead (if the Caps are swept in all three and the Jets win all three of their games over the same period) and ten points behind the New York Islanders for eighth place (if the Isles sweep their three games).

But first, the Caps take wing (get it?...”wing?”…”Buffalo?”) to First Niagara Center for an evening tilt against the Sabres.  And despite their troubles – 13^th place in the Eastern Conference – they are playing somewhat better of late. Since dropping a 5-3 decision to the Caps on St. Patrick’s Day, Buffalo is 3-1-1 over their last five games.  And it is not as if the Sabres played a bunch of stiffs in these last five games.  They beat Montreal twice and Toronto once, both teams that will make the playoffs.  The Sabres' trouble is that then they let up against comparative patsies this week, dropping a 2-1 decision to Tampa Bay and a 5-4 Gimmick loss to Florida.

Buffalo spread 14 goals scored over those last five games rather liberally.  Ten different players recorded goals, four of them – Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott – getting two apiece.  Ennis led the Sabres in overall scoring over these games, going 2-3-5.

The most common feature of these last five games for the Sabres has been the margin of victory.  All five games were settled by one-goal margins, three of them going to extra time, and two of them to the freestyle competition.  Here is how the teams compare overall this season...

1.  Was a two goal performance by Thomas Vanek in a 2-1 win over Montreal last Saturday a signal of a reawakening of his goal-scoring production, or merely a blip on the radar of a weak second half in that regard?  Vanek scored 11 goals in his first 11 games this season, but even with that two-goal performance against Montreal has only five over his last 18 games.  It might not matter, though.  Vanek suffered an “upper body injury” in a 2-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday and is questionable for this game.

2.  For you members of the Washington chapter of the Steve Ott Fan Club… two goals, two assists, 10 penalty minutes over five games since his tour-de-force performance in agitation in Washington on March 17^th.  Looks as if he should be in fine form for an encore performance tonight.  The thing is, though, he has never scored a goal against the Caps.  He is 0-1-1 in six career contests against Washington.

3.  Buffalo has only nine wins in regulation and overtime this season (only Florida has fewer in the NHL).  Defensemen have the game winning goals in four of those games (Christian Ehrhoff, Alexander Sulzer, and twice by Tyler Myers).

4.  Speaking of wins in regulation and overtime, Buffalo has only three such wins at home this season, only one since February 15^th, that coming against the New York Rangers in a 3-1 win on March 12^th.

5.  The Capitals’ power play should be salivating.  Buffalo might not have the worst penalty kill in the league, but they can see bottom from their 27^th place ranking.  The thing is, no team has allowed more power play goals overall than the Sabres (25).

1.  The Caps have stopped the bleeding in terms of wins and losses, going 5-3-0 over their last eight games since suffering a three-game losing streak earlier this month. They have made a bit of a dent in their deficit from a playoff berth in the meantime, cutting their deficit from the Southeast Division lead from ten to seven points, and from eighth place in the conference from seven to four points over those games. 

2.  The Caps are 16^th in the league in first period goals scored, 18^th in goals scored in the second period.  They are tied for sixth in third period goals scored.  Maybe if that was reversed, the record would have been better.  Then again, maybe not.  Pittsburgh and Chicago – two strong teams – are first and second in first period goals scored.  Calgary and Philadelphia – two teams looking forward to the off season – are third and fourth.

3.  Washington has allowed more power play goals when playing 3-on-5 (six) than any team in the league.  The Southeast Division seems to have cornered the market on this statistic.  Three of the worst five teams in 3-on-5 goals allowed are from the division (the Caps, Winnipeg, and Tampa Bay).  But so is Pittsburgh, so there is that.  Oh yeah…and Buffalo.

4.  Only five teams have a worse winning percentage than the Caps when leading at the first intermission.  Even Florida has a better points percentage (.778) than the Caps (.667).

5.  In 14 games so far in March, the Caps have reached the 30-shot mark once.  They have held opponents under the 30-shot mark… once.  They have been outshot by an average margin of 7.8 shots per game in those 14 games.  That is a lot of pressure to put on Caps goaltenders to be sharp.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo:  Ryan Miller

Yeah, who else.  He is the face of the franchise.  A former Vezina Trophy winner.  And he is a goaltender you do not expect to be a “second page” goalie on the NHL.com statistics list – 41^st of 48 goalies in goals against average (2.91).  He does crawl back onto the first page of rankings in save percentage with a .911 mark (tied for 24^th among 48 goalies), but even this is unexpected territory for the ten-year veteran.  Part of the problem – perhaps the problem – is that Miller has been pelted mercilessly with shots on goal.  He has faced more shots than any goalie in the league, almost 100 more shots (952) than Winnipeg’s Ondrej Pavelec (856).  By the same token, Miller has almost 100 more saves (867) than the second place goalie (Pavelec with 775).  Miller is the guy in the bowels of the ship bailing water…and falling behind.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Ryan Miller is going to keep his right eye peeking over at Alex Ovechkin in the left wing circle on the Capitals’ power play.  The Caps have six power play goals in their last eight games, and Ovechkin has four of those goals and assisted on a fifth.  Ovechkin has a healthy 19-12-31 scoring record in 29 career games against Buffalo, and 16 of those 31 points (nine goals, seven assists) have come on the power play.  Couple that with the Sabres’ weak penalty kill, and Ovechkin looms as a large figure in that left wing circle on the Caps’ power play in this game.

Keys:

1.  More power!!!  We’ve sort of covered that, but this really is the fault line on which this game is likely to be settled.  Neither team is strong at 5-on-5, but the Caps power play has performed so much more efficiently on their power play than has Buffalo on their penalty kill that the Caps have to do damage here. 

2.  Play desperately…as a group.  The Caps are, from time to time, a team that when adversity strikes, dissolves into a squad in which each individual plays his own game trying to do to much on his own to make up the deficit.  The Caps have to play as a desperate squad, not as five desperate skaters.

3.  Simple equals success.  It is a road game.  Play it as a road game…simple, solid, strong in the corners and on the wall.  And when opportunity knocks (you would think it would knock often against a team such as Buffalo, which gives up lots of chances), by all means, let it in.

In the end, the month of March has been one of a seemingly never-ending series of “must win” games for the Caps… back-to-back games against Carolina, back-to-back games against Winnipeg, back-to-back games against teams from New York.  Well, here we are coming to the end of the month and perhaps the last “must win” games. Because if they don’t win this road trip, there are not likely to be anymore “must win” games for the Caps this season.  So…win.

Capitals 4 – Sabres 2

Washington Capitals -- The Tortoise or the Hare

“The hare laughed at the tortoise's feet but the tortoise declared, 'I will beat you in a race!' The hare replied, 'Those are just words. Race with me, and you'll see! Who will mark out the track and serve as our umpire?' 'The fox,' replied the tortoise, 'since she is honest and highly intelligent.' When the time for the race had been decided upon, the tortoise did not delay, but immediately took off down the race course. The hare, however, lay down to take a nap, confident in the speed of his feet. Then, when the hare eventually made his way to the finish line, he found that the tortoise had already won.”

The moral of the fable, credited to the ancient story-teller Aesop, is that resolve, determination, and perseverance wins the race over the lazy and indolent.  It would seem to have a perverse relevance to the Washington Capitals these days.  Recently, Ed Frankovic and pucksandbooks at On Frozen Blog authored essays that spoke of the dilemma facing the Capitals these days, that being whether or not to trade center Mike Ribeiro for futures.

Generally, both seem to agree that holding on to Ribeiro does not serve the mid-to-long term interests of the club, that Ribeiro could be moved for some combination of picks and prospects that would improve the club 2-3 years hence.  We agree, primarily because doing so aligns those assets better with what Caps fans hope is the emergence of Filip Forsberg and Evgeni Kunzetsov as the next generation of highly skilled players to complement those who by that time will be comparative grizzled veterans – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, and Brooks Laich.

But the sturm und drang attaching to this matter brings into stark relief a problem with this franchise.  To its credit, it applied a cold, calculating eye to what it had in 2003-2004 – an aging, underperforming, overpaid squad that might, if things fell into place, might squeeze perhaps another playoff appearance out of itself.  But it was not a team that had much promise going forward.  So, the Caps tore it out, root and branch, shipping players hither and yon for draft picks and prospects.  We covered this in some detail over the years that followed. 

It was all part of a “plan” to return the Capitals to competitiveness, to make them compelling to watch, and make them a more complete hockey team, one that could challenge for a Stanley Cup.  One of the elements of the plan, perhaps the most important one, was another “C” word – “commitment.”  The Caps committed to a plan that might not (and in fact did not) bear fruit immediately.  But adopting the mindset of the tortoise – resolve, determination, and perseverance – the club committed to the long term.  The “rebuild” would be slow, steady, and sure (although winning a ping-pong ball drawing for the top overall draft pick in 2004 did not hurt, either).

By 2007-2008, the Caps were competitive, securing a playoff spot with an incredible closing kick.  By 2009-2010 they were the best team in the sport…ok, in the regular season.  Even the most callous and cynical observer would have to agree, the plan was working. The unbroken upward arc of performance signaled that it was not a matter of “if,” but “when” the Caps would finally hoist the Stanley Cup.

But here we are, three seasons removed from the Presidents Trophy season of 2009-2010, and the “plan” looks stale.  The tortoise no longer looks determined as much as he looks slow.  The players who had career years in 2009-2010 (those who remain with the club) struggle now to rise above also-ran status.  The club that lost only 15 games in regulation over the entire 82-game regular season in 2009-2010 has already lost eight times in regulation in 16 home games this season.  The team that might have been called “The Greatest Show on Ice” in 2009-2010 is not even the greatest show in its own city.  Sure, the Caps still sell out Verizon Center and have a long sellout streak, but that statistic seems to have less and less meaning every day as the club’s fortunes on the ice dim from week to week.

It is a good thing to be the tortoise – resolved, determined, purposeful.  But in running the race, you had better be sure that the hare does not possess those qualities.  Since the Caps climbed to within sight of the summit of 2009-2010, they have been passed along the way by the Chicago Blackhawks (Stanley Cup winners in 2010), the Boston Bruins (2011), and the Los Angeles Kings (2012).  Their nemesis of the past two decades, the Pittsburgh Penguins – the team with which the Caps were supposed to be competing for Cups for a decade – won a Cup in 2009 and are heavy favorites to win the Cup this season.  The Carolina Hurricanes and Winnipeg Jets would seem to have caught the Caps, at least for the time being, in their own division.  The Rangers, the Senators, the Devils…the Caps are looking up at all of these teams these days.

The Mike Ribeiro situation is a symptom of something deeper that troubles this franchise.  Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, considered a great military strategist in the 19^th century, said words to the effect that “no plan survives first contact with the enemy.”  To the Capitals’ credit, their plan survived half a decade.  But now, their plan (such as it is) seems to depend heavily, perhaps too heavily, on what Filip Forsberg and Evgeni Kuznetsov – neither of whom has yet to play a minute in anger in North America – can bring to the table down the road.  And if Ribeiro is not moved for assets that align with that notion, then a lot of eggs are being placed in the baskets of Forsberg and Kuznetsov.

We believed five years ago, and do so now, that the draft is the most reliable way of building a roster, both in terms of aligning with a philosophy of hockey and doing so in the most economical way.  That is a philosophy, though, not a plan.  If your plan is to be the tortoise – resolved, determined, purposeful – the hare cannot have those same qualities.  Because if it does – and Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles, and a handful of other teams certainly appear to have those attributes -- you lose.

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

It’s a little known fact…

-- Reason 3,826 why the Southeast Division sucks… no team in the Division ranks in the top eight in the Eastern Conference in home win-loss record.  Tampa Bay is the only division team with a record over .500 (9-7-1).  The Caps are 8-8-0.

-- The good and the bad… Looking at the individual points rankings, there are the Penguins with the first and second ranked point getters, and there is Tampa Bay with the third and fourth ranked scorers.  One is a prohibitive favorite to win the Stanley Cup. The other… uh, no.

-- Caps fans know that Mike Ribeiro is having a fine season.  But there is another statistic of note that Caps fans might not be paying attention to with respect to Ribeiro’s season.  He currently has 41 penalty minutes in 33 games.  He has never finished a season in his career averaging more than 1.0 penalty minutes per game.

-- Since the lockout of 2004-2005, only one qualifying player in the NHL finished the season with a shooting percentage of greater than 25.0 percent – Mike Ribeiro in 2007-2008 with Dallas (25.2 percent).  At the moment, four qualifying players have at least a 25.0 percent shooting percentage: Patrik Berglund, Chris Kunitz, Alex Tanguay… and Ribeiro.

-- That Sidney Crosby leads the NHL in assists is probably not a surprise to anyone.  But Chris Kunitz tied for sixth with 24 in 35 games?  He’s never had more than 35 in a season.  Oh, and Ribeiro is tied with him.  So is Nicklas Backstrom.

-- It’s all very nice that Steven Stamkos has 23 goals and all, but really… 43 goals against while on ice?  41 of them at even strength (no non-Lightning forward in the league is close)?  Hey, Milbury, how ‘bout talking about this guy playing in his own end.

-- More Ribeiro… he’s tied for third in the league power play points with that guy in Pittsburgh.  No, not Iginla.

-- Troy Brouwer has “only” 69 recorded hits in 32 games, tied for 41^st in the league among forwards.  We say “only” because he ranked seventh last season (247) and fifth in 2010-2011 (262).

-- It might not be too much of a stretch to be unsurprised that Jason Chimera leads the Caps in minor penalties taken.  It would probably surprise you more, dear reader, to know that Alex Ovechkin is tied with him (13 apiece).

-- Matt Hendricks has as many fighting majors for the Caps as the rest of the team combined (6).