The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 7: Rangers at Capitals, October 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

One in a row!  The Washington Capitals became the 27^th team in the NHL this season to win a hockey game without the benefit of trick shots when they defeated the Edmonton Oilers, 4-2, on Monday night.  Now, they get a chance to face another team with only one win in the hockey portion of hockey games when the New York Rangers come to town to face the Caps in the third game of Washington’s five-game home stand on Wednesday. 

As the legendary former manager of the Toledo Mud Hens and the Cleveland Indians might have put it, “OK, you won a game yesterday. If you win today, it's called "two in a row". And if you win again on Saturday, it's called a "winning streak"... It has happened before!”

Well, before you win three for that “winning streak,” you have to win two, and that means besting the Rangers, who have found the adjustment from John Tortorella to Alain Vigneault behind the Ranger bench difficult, to say the least.

The adjustment has been most difficult, it seems, in a place most unexpected – in goal.  Then again, that might not be a function of the coach.  Maybe it is just coincidence, but the changes in goaltender equipment (shaving length off their leg pads, for example) and the reduction in the footprint of the goal has coincided with some fluffy numbers for Henrik Lundqvist. 

He has been pulled from one game, gave up four or more goals in two others, and that’s just in four starts (he has five appearances).  Overall he is 1-3-0, but worse is his goals against average (4.21, 44^th among 46 qualifying goaltenders) and save percentage (.887, 36^th among those same goalies).  He has been worse early in games, sporting a .875 save percentage in the first period of games, .851 in the second period.  In 12 periods of play Lundqvist has allowed goals in nine of them.

What it means is that the Rangers are, uncharacteristically, dead last in the NHL in scoring defense (5.00 goals/game).  Not that their offense has been much, if any, better.  Only two teams – Philadelphia and Buffalo – have a worse scoring offense than the Rangers (1.80/game).

Making it worse is that the Rangers have had to do this living out of suitcases, so to speak.  New York will be visiting Washington for the sixth game of a nine-game road trip to start the season.  New York to Phoenix to Los Angeles to San Jose to Anaheim (what, they couldn’t at least schedule Los Angeles and Anaheim next to one another?) to St. Louis to Washington.  That is a shade over 5,400 miles.  They ARE their own spin off of “Airport 24/7: Miami” on Travel Channel.  

Here is how the teams compare in their respective numbers to date:

1.  You think the Caps have even-strength issues?  The Rangers have four even-strength goals in five games, and Brad Richards has three of them.  You would probably go through a lot of names until you guessed that Derek Dorsett has the other one.

2.  Another point, so to speak, about the Rangers at even strength.  Their defensemen have combined for one even strength point – an assist for Anton Stralman.  Marc Staal has a power play goal, Ryan McDonagh has a shorthanded goal.

3.  The Rangers have yet to play a one-goal game.  All four of their losses have been by at least two goals, and no team has more losses by three or more goals (three).

4.  If the Rangers are trailing, they are losing.  Three times they trailed at the end of 20 minutes, three times they lost.  Four times they trailed at the second intermission, four times they lost.

5.  The Rangers tend to lose discipline late.  Only two teams – Los Angeles and Philadelphia – have spent more times shorthanded in the third period than the ten times the Rangers have found themselves short in five games.

1.  Mike Green does not have a goal through six games.  This might not sound like much, he being a defenseman and all, but it is the first time he has gone this long without a goal to start the season since the 2010-2011 season, a seven-game streak that is the longest of his career.

2.  In the “you do what you have to do” file, you might expect that Troy Brouwer, Alex Ovechkin, and Tom Wilson would lead the Caps’ forwards in hits.  Would you have expected Martin Erat to be fourth?

3.  The Caps have been awarded as many power play opportunities in the third period of games (11) as they have in the first and second periods combined.  They are 2-for-5 in the first period, 3-for-6 in the second, and 3-for-11 in the third.  On the other side, the Caps are 7-for-8 killing penalties in the first period of games, 6-for-9 in the second period, and 5-for-5 in the third.

4.  It is one thing to lead your team in shots, but Alex Ovechkin has almost as many shots on goal (42) as the next four Capitals combined (47, divided among Brooks Laich, Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mikhail Grabovski).

5.  Braden Holtby has a post-season history against the Rangers well known to Caps fans: 6-8, 2.05, .925, and one shutout in two seven-game series.  His career regular season record against New York looks a lot the same: 2-2-1, 1.93, .942.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York:  Jesper Fast

Elias Lindholm, Nathan MacKinnon, Will Acton.  Three games, three players getting their first NHL goal against the Capitals.  Tell us who is up next, Peerless?  Well, it’s Jesper Fast.  With Rick Nash on the shelf with a concussion suffered last week against San Jose, the 2010 sixth round pick has had an opportunity to make an impression with the big club.  It has been something of a whirlwind tour for the 21-year old.  A year ago at this time he was skating for HV71-Jönköping in the Swedish Elite League (now the Swedish Hockey League) where he led the club in goals with 18.  It was the culmination of progressively higher goal totals over his four years at the elite league level, a feat he also achieved when he played for HV71-Jönköping/Junior, finishing with 23 goals in 37 games in 2009-2010.  That Fast might score a goal in this game would not necessarily be surprising, just annoying.

Washington: Nate Schmidt

The Capitals are not especially deep on the left side of their defense.  After Karl Alzner, it’s something of a crap shoot.  Jack Hillen…injured.  John Erskine..hurt.  Alexander Urbom…new.  Dmitry Orlov…pink eye.  Of such things opportunities are born, and one has presented itself for Nate Schmidt. At this time last season Schmidt was starting his last season as a defenseman with the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers, one in which he would be named a second-team All-American after going 9-23-32 in 40 games.  Schmidt then skated five games for the Hershey Bears in the AHL playoffs and skated in the opener of the 2013-2014 season for the Bears (notching a goal in a 4-3 loss) before being called up to the Caps.  In two games he has averaged a little more than 17 minutes a game and leads the team in shots per game from the blue line. He has not looked out of place.  Yes, small sample size, but one has to start somewhere.

Keys:

1.  Early savers pay late dividends.  Through six games, Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth have a combined save percentage of .848 in the first period.  That number speaks for itself.  The Caps are spending too much time behind the eight-ball.  Against a team that has a total of three first period goals (only Buffalo has fewer), here is the chance for one of them to lift that number.

2.  Rhythm. Neither the first nor second line have established any rhythm at even strength.  Alex Ovechkin (42) has three times as many shots on goal as Nicklas Backstrom (11) and Marcus Johanson (3), suggesting that too much of the offense is being funneled through Ovechkin.  The second line, well, they just have not established anything.  Only Florida has allowed more goals at 5-on-5 than the Rangers.  Here is a chance for these scoring line guys to establish more rhythm.

3.  The early bird catches the WORM in goal.  If by “WORM” you mean “wobbly, oddly rickety man” in goal.  Yes, that would be Henrik Lundqvist, the five-time Vezina Trophy finalist (winner in 2012) and bane of the Caps’ existence in the last two playoffs years.  As noted above, in five appearances he has a save percentage of .875 in the first period of games and a .851 save percentage in the second period of games.  One can wait until the third period to capitalize on his iffy play at one’s peril; he has a .974 save percentage in the last three third periods in which he appeared.

In the end…

Elliotte Friedman said this in his “30 Thoughts” for this week…

“From 2005-06 through 2011-12, just three of 32 teams who were four points out of a playoff position on November 1 recovered to make it.”  

That is a rather stark way of saying, “you can’t win the Stanley Cup in October, but you can lose it.”  The Caps stopped the bleeding when they beat Edmonton on Monday.  Now, they have to bloody some other folks.  The Rangers are swimming in quicksand at the moment. They can’t score, they can’t stop anyone from scoring, and that road trip is looking mighty long at this point.

Capitals 5 – Rangers 3

Washington Capitals: A TWO-point night -- Game 6: Capitals 4 - Oilers 2

For almost 30 minutes the Washington Capitals might have considered themselves to be lucky to be tied with the Edmonton Oilers, 1-1.  To that point Edmonton outshot the Caps, 14-6.  It could have been worse, given that the Oilers seemed to be gaining the Capitals’ zone almost at will.

Then, Ladislav Smid took a tripping penalty.  That was the crack the Capitals needed.  In a span of 3:55, starting with a Joel Ward goal on the power play following Smid’s penalty, the Caps put the competitive portion of the evening to bed with a three-goal burst.  Edmonton added a goal late to provide the final margin, 4-2, giving the Caps their first win in regulation time this season.

The gaining the zone almost without challenge burned the Caps in the tenth minute of the first period when Justin Schultz collected a loose puck at his own blue line, then circled out and down the right wing boards.  As he was crossing into the Caps’ end, David Perron headed for the net and backed off Mike Green.  Boyd Gordon jumped into the void, took a pass from Schultz, and buried a wrist shot past goalie Braden Holtby’s blocker to give the Oilers the first lead.

Brooks Laich tied the game four minutes later when the Oilers got caught jumping the zone en masse while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was failing to complete a clearing pass to Ales Hemsky.  Steve Oleksy settled the puck at the blue line and found Laich behind the entire Oiler defense.  Laich slipped the puck through goalie Jason LaBarbera, and the game was tied, the result the teams would take to the first intermission.

Then came the three goal burst in the second period.  The first goal came in a somewhat odd fashion, not for who started it, but for who finished it and how.  The Caps were skating four-on-three with Nicklas Backstrom along the goal line extended to LaBarbera’s left.  Looking for a cross-ice opening, he eschewed a pass to Alex Ovechkin at the point and instead slipped the puck under the stick of defenseman Nick Schultz and onto the tape of Joel Ward low in the left wing circle.  Ward buried the one timer behind LaBarbera to give the Caps a 2-1 lead.

Barely three minutes later it was Alex Ovechkin finding a hole in, of all places, the inside edge of the right wing circle.  Marcus Johansson found him, and another one-timer later, it was Caps in front, 3-1. 

Troy Brouwer ended the Caps scoring 43 seconds after the Ovechkin goal when the Caps worked the strong-side triangle of their power play to perfection.  Backstrom held the puck along the right wing wall until Mikhail Grabovski gave him a passing lane.  Backstrom slid it down to Grabovski along the goal line extended, Grabovski sent a touch pass to Troy Brouwer in the slot, and Brouwer one-timed the puck past LaBarbera for the pizza goal.

Edmonton got a window-dressing score late when Will Acton netted his first NHL goal (of course he did) with just over 100 seconds left in the game.

Other stuff…

-- The Laich goal was the first point by the second line as a group this season.  That is nice…really, it is.  But then again, the trio combined for only two even strength shots on goal.

-- The best defensive pair on the ice was the Steve Oleksy/Nate Schmidt pair.  It was like watching a couple of Jack Russell terriers out there, Oleksy being frisky with his stepping up in the play and hitting people, and Schmidt by keeping things simple and keeping the play in front of him.  They had a lot of energy and were not bashful about directing pucks to the net (four shot attempts apiece).

-- It is hard to believe that Martin Erat is going to be spending the rest of his year getting ten minutes a night on the fourth line (he had a season high 11:50 tonight).  He was solid in all three zones; he just looked like a guy who knows how to play the game.  Still, he is now averaging 7:30 in even strength ice time per game.  That is between Ryan White and Joe Colborne in your NHL rankings (573^rd of 623 players).

-- That was the seventh time since the 2004-2005 lockout that the Caps scored four or more goals on 20 or fewer shots.  The last time they did it was April 2, 2013, in a 5-3 win over Carolina.

-- Last season Alex Ovechkin scored his sixth goal of the season in his 17^th game (part of a hat trick night against New Jersey).  He now has six goals in six games this season, his fastest to six goals of his career,  and he has 29 goals in his last 29 games.

-- With three assists, Nickas Backstrom had his third multi-point game this season.  His seven assists in six games is not his best six-game start for helpers (eight in three games to start the 2009-2010 season), but in his last 29 games, he has…yes, 29 assists.  Synergy.

-- Tom Wilson is going to get a goal someday.  It will probably be the ugliest thing you ever saw.  How do we know this?  Because he keeps getting robbed on doorstep opportunities.  It happened against Colorado on Saturday, and it happened again tonight when he had two bang-bang chances 9:50 into the third period.  He did finish second on the team in even-strength shots on goal (three; Alex Ovechkin had four)

-- Mike Green…if you’re going to try hip checks, go watch some Dmitry Orlov video.

-- How bad is Edmonton’s defense?  They tied a season best for fewest goals allowed in a game (four).

-- Just wondering, can you get a five-minute major for interference (answer: yes, Rule 56.4)?  That love tap Alex Ovechkin planted between the numbers on the back of Mike Brown flirted with it.

-- The Caps didn’t win the even strength game in this one, either.  Caps 2 – Oilers 2.  The Caps were outshot, 26-17, at even strength.

-- Where did Boyd “Muffins” Gordon find that wrist shot.  If you squinted, you might have thought it was Joe Sakic coming out of retirement (well, yeah…certainly not Sakic in his prime).

-- Marcus Johansson recorded his 100^th NHL point, credited with the primary assist on the Ovechkin goal. 

-- Baby steps.  In his last three games Braden Holtby has recorded save percentages of .905, .917, and .933.  Overall, it’s .920.  He’s getting there.

In the end…

Yeah, Edmonton’s defense stinks on toast, and Jason LaBarbera is a diligent journeyman goaltender.  But when you have such a team in front of you, then you take advantage of it.  The Caps did just that.  The scorers scored (all of the top line getting points), the second line showed signs of life (or at least opportunism), the third defense pair looked solid, and Braden Holtby made the saves he needed to make when he needed to make them.  It is something on which they can build with the New York Rangers coming to town on Wednesday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 6: Oilers at Capitals, October 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cooooold out there today.”

It's coooold out there every day. What is this, Miami Beach?

“Not hardly. And you know, you can expect hazardous travel later today with that, you know, that, uh, that blizzard thing.”

That blizzard - thing. That blizzard - thing. Oh, well, here's the report! The National Weather Service is calling for a “big blizzard thing!”

“Yessss, they are. But you know, there's another reason why today is especially exciting.”

Especially cold!

“Especially cold, okay, but the big question on everybody's lips...”

On their chapped lips...

“On their chapped lips, right: Do ya think Phil is gonna come out and see his shadow?”

Punxsutawney Phil!

“That's right, woodchuck-chuckers - it's...”

[in unison] “GROUNDHOG DAY!”

Yeah, yeah, yeah…every funny guys.  Seems Fearless and Cheerless are channeling their inner “Groundhog Day” when it comes to the Washington Capitals at the moment.  And well they should be.  The Capitals come into Monday night’s game against the Edmonton Oilers with a 1-4-0 record and looking a lot like last season’s club that went 1-3-1 in their first five games.

Are there parallels?  Well, yes…

• Goals scored/game: 2012-2013: 2.20 / 2013-2014: 2.40
• Goals allowed/game: 2012-2013: 3.80 / 2013-2014: 4.00

However, there are differences…

• Power play: 2012-2013: 17.4 percent / 2013-2014: 31.6 percent
• Penalty kill: 2012-2013: 69.2 percent / 2013-2014: 79.0 percent
• Even strength goals for/goals against: 2012-2013: 7-11 / 2013-2014: 6-15

However you slice it, the Caps are right back where they were at this time last season, stuck in a hole looking up at a lot of teams.

They are looking at their early-season doppelganger in Monday’s opponent, the Edmonton Oilers.  Through five games, both teams…

-- have a goals scored/goals allowed average worse than minus-1.00 goals per game

-- are under…way under an even strength goals scored to goals allowed ratio of 1.00:1

-- have power plays of 25.0 percent or better

-- have penalty kills lower than 80 percent

-- have identical goals allowed/goals scored at home (Washington) and on the road (Edmonton)

-- have a single win, that coming in a shootout at home after falling behind, 3-0

The big difference between these teams is that the Caps reached the post-season in each of the six seasons, while the Oilers have not played a playoff game since losing Game 7 to the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2006 Stanley Cup finals.  In their seven seasons since, coming into this year, the Oilers have a record of 214-268-59, which they have parlayed into five straight top-ten draft positions, three of them becoming number one overall picks.

Those five picks were, in order: Magnus Paajarvi, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, and Darnell Nurse.  Paajarvi was since traded to the St. Louis Blues with a second round pick for left winger David Perron.  Nurse, the seventh overall pick in last summer’s entry draft, was returned in the Oilers’ last week of training camp to the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds in the Ontario Hockey League.  The other three – Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Yakupov – are with the club and make up what might be considered the Oilers’ forward core.

It has been an uneven start for this trio.  Hall has been right there, at least on offense so far, going 1-4-5 in five games.  But he also has been on ice for nine goals against.  That is not quite as bad as Nugent-Hopkins, who has been on ice for ten goals against in only three games.  At least he has a bit of an excuse.  He came back more quickly than expected from offseason shoulder surgery that was expected to keep him out the first month.  He has three points in his three games to date.  Then there is Yakupov.  He has yet to record a point in four games and was a healthy scratch in Edmonton’s last game, against Toronto, after getting only 13 minutes in his previous game, against Montreal.  Not quite the start that might have been envisioned for a player who led all rookies in goals scored last season (17), including six in his last three regular season games.

Here is how the two teams compare in their numbers to date…

1.  Talk about your hockey lifers.  Dallas Eakins, in his first year as head coach of the Oilers, spent ten seasons in the NHL, playing in 120 games with eight different teams.  That does not include more than 600 games spent in the AHL with nine different teams.  And then he started working his way up through the coaching ranks.  A year with the Toronto Marlies in the AHL as an assistant, then two years with the Toronto Maple Leafs as an assistant, and then four years with the Marlies as head coach where he posted a record of 157-114-41 and a trip to the Calder Cup finals in 2012.  Now, he gets his chance at an NHL gig with the Oilers.  Just don’t expect him to spring for the donuts.  

2.  Edmonton ranks last in the league in goals against.  They do not come by this ranking accidentally.  The Oilers have yet to hold an opponent to fewer than four goals in a game.  Of the 15 periods of regulation hockey they have played so far, the Oilers allowed at least one goal in 14 of them. They have allowed six goals in both of their road games so far.

3.  Edmonton does a lousy job holding leads.  They have scored first in four of their five games thus far and have a record of 0-3-1 when doing so.  Despite scoring first in four games, they have not held a lead at the first intermission in any of their five games, and they have held a lead after 40 minutes only once.  The one game they allowed the first goal, they won.

4.  Five games in, and the Oilers have already allowed three shorthanded goals.  They allowed only one shorthanded goal all of last season.

5.  Two straight games the Caps have allowed an opponent to score their first NHL goal – Elias Lindholm for Carolina and Nathan MacKinnon for Colorado.  Next up…Will Acton.  The undrafted rookie from Edina, MN, is only getting eight minutes and change a night in ice time and has an assist.  But hey, it’s the Caps.

1.  The Caps are averaging 34.0 shots per game, fifth in the league.  They are averaging 2.40 goals per game, 21^st in the league.  Either they are due for a change in luck, or their shot selection stinks.

2.  Only seven of 13 Capital forwards appearing to date have recorded a point through five games, and only five have scored a goal.  In three home games, Alex Ovechkin has as many goals (three) as the rest of the forwards combined (Nicklas Backstrom, Jason Chimera, Eric Fehr).

3.  No defenseman taking the ice Monday night has scored a goal this season (Connor Carrick is in Hershey).  Only three of them have even strength points, and Mike Green is not one of them (John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Steve Oleksy).

4.  The Caps have been consistent.  When outshooting their opponents, they are 0-2-0.  When outshot, they are 0-2-0.  Bank on the Caps if they have the same number of shots on goal as Edmonton (1-0-0).

5.  These are teams that play one another infrequently, to say the least.  In the last ten seasons the Caps and Oilers met only eight times.  Washington is 4-4-0 over those eight games, 3-1-0 at home.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Edmonton: Boyd Gordon

In seven seasons with the Washington Capitals, Boyd Gordon spent a total of 59 minutes on the power play, averaging about ten seconds per contest on the man advantage.  In five games with the Edmonton Oilers he is averaging almost two minutes a game on the power play.  It is not among the leaders among forwards for the Oilers (eighth), but it is a lot more than he had in Washington.  It has allowed him to do something he never accomplished with the Caps – score a power play goal.  That came in the Oilers’ season opener in Winnipeg.  Not that Gordon has forsaken what got him here.  He leads all Oiler forwards in shorthanded ice time and has been on ice for only seven goals against (on this team, that’s “Selke” worthy).  His three goals is tied for the team lead (he had four in 48 games with Phoenix last season).  Only once in his career has he reached the three-goal mark in fewer than 20 games into the season.  He is 0-1-1 in one career appearance against the Caps.

Washington:  Troy Brouwer

“It’s looking at yourself and wanting to win. It’s about wanting to work hard, wanting to help your teammates out, wanting to win.  That’s all it comes down to. Our talent level’s there, our effort’s not.  It’s concentration, it’s work ethic, it’s focus, it’s a lot of things.  It starts in practice and it continues over into warmups, we shoot high on our goalie sometimes when we shouldn’t be and then we’re sloppy during the game and then we wonder why we are sloppy and can’t make the breakout passes. We’ve got to be better, all around.”

So said Troy Brouwer after Saturday's game against Colorado. Five games, seven shots on goal, no points, minus-2.  That is Troy Brouwer’s line so far this season.  Hey, we all have bad days, bad weeks, bad months (hey, Congress!).  But the problem having been identified, it is now a matter of finding a solution.

Keys:

1.  Out of the blocks.  Edmonton has allowed nine goals in the first period over five games this season. No team has allowed more.  The Caps have only three goals scored in the first period through five games.  Only Boston and Buffalo have scored fewer.  The Caps spend too much time playing catch-up, and we saw how that worked against a speedy team like Colorado on Saturday.  Edmonton is cut from the same cloth.

2.  Second City.  At some point, the second line will score.  Really.  They will.  But until they do, the Caps are a one-line, power play only kind of team that is easier to defend.  When they do – and they will, really – the Caps will be harder to defend.  If there is a team the second line can get well against, this is the one…really…honest.

3.  Opportunity knocks.  The Caps had six power play opportunities in their opener against the Chicago Blackhawks.  They have had 13 in four games since.  Having the league’s third-best power play isn’t much use when it isn’t in use. 

In the end…

“…some of our play last night was excellent and the score was not indicative of that… obviously we’re doing a lot of good things. Our D is doing a lot of good things.”

-- Adam Oates, after Saturday's loss to Colorado

Yeah, well, that’s all well and good, but the road to hell – and early rounds of golf in the spring – are paved with good intentions. The Caps have displayed a disturbing tendency to start slow, both in games and – in the last two seasons – to open the year.  This is not like last season, when a 2-8-1 start meant the Caps needed a furious finish (25-10-2) to make the playoffs.  There are 77 games left.  But that is not reason for delay, either.  Only Pittsburgh is over .500 in the Metro Division, and the Caps need to start taking advantage of other teams’ misfortune.  There is no better time than the present.

Capitals 5 – Oilers 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 2

Week 2 for the Washington Capitals looked a lot like Week 1, just worse.  At least in Week 1 they were in games.  Not so, not really, in Week 2.

Record: 0-2-0

By the time the week was over, the Caps were 1-4-0, the first time they went their first five games of the season without a win in regulation time since the 2000-2001 season.  The silver lining there is that the Caps went on to finish with 96 points that season.  For the moment there is no silver lining here, other than to say that the Caps, with their 1-3-0 record against Western Conference teams, are hardly alone in their frustration against the other conference.  Through Saturday’s games the West holds a 23-6-3 edge against the East (3-0-1 against the Caps), and no Western team has a sub-.500 record against the East.

Offense: 1.50/game (season: 2.40 / rank: T-21^st)

The third line of Jason Chimera, Eric Fehr,and Joel Ward had two of the Caps’ three goals this week.  Alex Ovechkin had the other, but he had his four-game goal scoring streak to open the season stopped in the Caps’ 5-1 loss to Colorado on Saturday.  The second line of Brooks Laich, Mikhail Grabovski, and Troy Brouwer did not record a point.  They have not yet recorded a point as a line this season.

The team continues to struggle as a group, not with getting shots on goal (they are averaging 34.0 per game), but with getting them into the goal.  Twelve goals on 170 shots – a 7.1 percent shooting percentage – ranks 25^th in the league.  The even strength offense continues to be a problem.  The Caps recorded three goals on 66 even strength shots (4.6 percent) in their two games this week.

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 4.00 / rank: T-26^th)

It was not a good week to be John Carlson.  He was on ice for four of the five even strength goals scored against the Caps, splitting them evenly -- two while paired with John Erskine against Carolina and two more while paired with Alexander Urbom against Colorado.  Twice pucks clicked off his stick and past his own goaltender.  Fifteen different skaters were on ice for even strength goals, which might not seem unusual, but over two games?

If you are going to look for a bright spot here, it would be in the Mike Green/Karl Alzner duo.  Green skated a total of 36:58 at even strength this week, Alzner a total of 33:47.  They were on ice together for one even strength goal against, that being Matt Duchene’s goal in the Colorado game on Saturday (although it was Alzner who was victimized on the play).

Goaltending: 4.04 GAA  / .875 save percentage (season: 3.78 / .880)

It would have been hard to think that the goaltending would be worse than in Week 1 (3.61/.883), but it was.  Braden Holtby was not bad in his start against Carolina, but he was just leaky enough with a high volume of shots faced (36) to come up just short in a 3-2 loss.  Luck…and bad eyesight… had a little bit to do with as well, though.  Not his eyesight, but that of the linesman on what would be Elias Lindholm’s first NHL goal.  The puck is circled in red in this screen shot, near Tom Wilson’s skates…

Jeff Skinner is clearly offside on this play, but play went on.  Lindholm would pick up the puck and pinball it off Wilson and the stick of John Carlson for a goal that would tie the game midway through the second period.  It should not have mattered, given that Alex Ovechkin would restore the lead less than a minute later, but it was indicative of the sort of “just short” week – one game, actually – that Holtby had.

Michal Neuvirth, on the other hand, had a difficult time with the Colorado Avalanche.  He gave up five goals on the first 22 shots he faced. He suffered some bad luck early – another Carlson stick deflecting another opponent’s shot past his own goaltender, but he could have/should have had Matt Duchene’s shot less than eight minutes later that gave the Avs a 2-0 lead, and the shorthanded goal he allowed to Alex Tanguay to end the competitive portion of the evening once and for all.  The score – one that Tanguay converted on a shot from just outside the goal line extended – was the kind that deflates a team.

In a week where almost nothing went right for the Caps, much of it their own doing, goaltending was just another part of it.

Power Play: 0-7 / 0.0 percent (season: 31.6 percent / rank: T-3^rd)

Live by the power play, die by the power play.  The Caps took the o-fer for the week, misfiring on seven shots in 10:01 of total power play time.  There was an ominous note in there.  Alex Ovechkin, who is still tied for the league lead in power play goals, had just one power play shot on goal in the two games.  Further, Colorado seemed very intent on shutting him off, deploying a “triangle and one” defense, where the weak side defenseman played him man-to-man.  The Caps tried the occasional back-door play with Ovechkin ducking behind that defenseman and darting to the net, but none were successful.  Going forward it will bear watching if other teams play him this way.  John Carlson was the only Cap to record more than one power play shot over the two games (three).  And, there was that shorthanded goal that was allowed as the Avalanche were changing out their defensemen.  Ugh.

Penalty Killing: 6-8 / 75.0 percent (season: 79.0 percent / rank:13^th)

It says something that 18 teams have penalty killing numbers below 80 percent, but we are not sure what.  For the Caps, who are one of those teams, this was another of those areas where they took a step backward.  The Caps were burned once with a taste of their own medicine, Alexander Semin converting a one timer from the left wing circle (very “Ovechkinesque”) while trying to kill a 5-on-3 power play.  On the other, they just lost Nathan MacKinnon circling from low to Michal Neuvirth’s right up into the slot behind Martin Erat.  Steve Oleksy could not close the gap soon enough, and all MacKinnon had to do was get the pass from Paul Stastny and shoot the puck on net.  He did, and he did, and the Avs had a 3-0 lead in what was a 5-1 win.

It was not a bad week from an opportunity standpoint, the Caps allowing eight power plays.  But teams got their shots, putting 12 on net in 12:46 of total power play time.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against (3-5 / season: 6-15; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio rank: 27^th)

Boy, this has to get better, and the sooner the better still.  The Caps improved their defense (2.5 goals against per game), yet it cannot be called “good” in this respect.  Still, it was a lot better than the offense.  The second line is still without a point as a line at even strength, and the top line, frankly, has not been a lot better.  This week the line was on ice for one goal, that scored by Alex Ovechkin (Nicklas Backstrom getting an assist for another top line point), but as a group this season they have two goals, both by Ovechkin, and four assists, split between Backstrom and Marcus Johansson.  The scoring lines are not scoring at even strength.

Faceoffs: 74-for-141 / 52.5 percent (season: 53.7 percent / rank: 8^th)

The Caps won the week and once more were good in the ends, going 31-for-52 in the offensive end (59.6 percent) and 24-for-47 in the defensive end (51.1 percent).  There was that lost faceoff in the defensive end on the 5-on-3 power play goal for Carolina, suggesting that the when is often as important as the how many when it comes to faceoff wins.  Eric Fehr came back to earth some this week, going 11-for-25 (44.0 percent), but he still remains in the top-30 in the league (56.1 percent).  Mikhail Grabovski had a fine week in the circle, going 16-for-24 overall (66.7 percent), including 8-for-11 in the offensive end.

Goals by period:

Small wonder that the Caps lost each period for the week.  Those first period results are still a problem with but one goal scored in the first period in the two games.  After two weeks the Caps are tied for 22^nd in goals scored in the first period (only three teams have scored fewer), tied for 27^th in goals allowed in the first period (only Edmonton has allowed more).  Not a recipe for success.

In the end…

Five games should be enough to at least get an idea of how the lines are shaking out.  The fact that the second line has no points in five games has to have a great big spotlight shined upon it.  The obvious consideration here is whether Martin Erat needs to be given a shot in that spot.  But that could present problems as well.  Would moving Erat to the second line mean dropping Brooks Laich to the third line?  If so, that would mean breaking up the only line that seems to have any spark?  Does it mean dropping him to the fourth line in a one-for-one swap?  Well, that’s a possibility, too, one supposes.

Then there is the defense.  John Erskine, Alexander Urbom, Connor Carrick, Steve Oleksy, Nate Schmidt, Jack Hillen.  That is the roster of defensemen three through six having dressed so far.  As a group they have not been awful (well, there is John Erskine being on ice for more goals against than anyone in that group and tied for worst among defensemen despite having missed a game), but they – meaning Urbom, Oleksy, and Schmidt as the current contestants – have the look of a problem waiting to unfold.

Five games in, this is a team that is having trouble playing good periods, let alone good games.  It looks entirely too much like last year’s start, and that is not fire to be played with. 

Washington Capitals: A NO-point night -- Game 5: Avalanche 5 - Capitals 1

The last time the Washington Capitals failed to win a game in regulation over their first five games took place 13 years ago at the start of their 2000-2001 season when they started 0-3-2-0.  The Caps are in that position tonight after their 5-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche that leaves them 1-4-0.  The lone win this season thus far came in a shootout against Calgary.

More relevant is the fact that the Caps have lost their first two games on their five-game home stand and find themselves tied with the even more woeful New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers for last place in the Metropolitan Division. 

The game can be summed up by returning to our keys from the pre-game prognosto… 

1.  Pace.  Colorado is a speedy team.  If the Caps allow them to gather speed through the neutral zone, they are going to be in for a world of hurt.  And here is how that plays out.  Six teams have a ratio of goals scored to goals against at 5-on-5 of 2.00:1 or better.  Those teams have a combined record of 18-2-2.  Colorado is one of those teams.  Seven teams have a ratio of 0.50:1 or worse.  Those teams, Washington among them, have a combined record of 8-22-1.  It is hard to think of this as coincidence (all numbers and records through Thursday games).

Colorado outscored the Caps, 3-1, at even strength.  It was 2-0 during what was the competitive portion of the evening.  This despite the Caps outshooting the Avs by an almost 2-to-1 margin at even strength (39-20).  It was one of those nights when the Caps did not lack for loose pucks in front of goalie Semyon Varlamov – he left a fair number of rebounds – but the Caps seemed always to be just a bit more than a stick-length away from the puck or just skating past it.

It was not as if the Avs did anything especially nifty to get their ES goals.  Alex Tanguay threw a puck at the net in the seventh minute, and Caps defenseman John Carlson deflected it between goalie Michal Neuvirth’s pads. 

Matt Duchene skated down the right wing as a Colorado power play was expiring.  And all he realy did was keep skating, catching defenseman Karl Alzner flat footed.  It allowed Duchene to get position and snap a shot over Neuvirth’s left shoulder on the short side.  That was an example of the Avs’ speed and the Caps getting burned by it.

The last one was another case of Colorado using their speed after collecting a loose puck just outside their blue line, generating speed through the neutral zone to end up with a three-on-two and a half.  That last half would be important, as Alex Ovechkin would be a blade-length of his stick away from denying a cross-ice pass from PA Parenteau to Jamie McGinn for the goal that would end the scoring.  Pace…Colorado dictated it.

2.  Patience.  The Caps are the mature team, now.  Colorado are the young whippersnappers.  With that maturity, one hopes that the Caps understand that the game is 60 minutes, and it is their depth and experience that could suit them well while the Avs might be running around like puppies in search of snausages early.  That requires discipline and playing the game to their tempo for longer stretches than the Avalanche play to theirs.

Patience is one thing, being almost somnambulant is another.  The 41 shots on goal aside, the Caps did a poor job of following up, of crowding the Colorado net consistently.  And there were just too many mistakes that allowed Colorado to get and establish position in the Caps end on the Avs’ terms. 

3.  Pressure.  One looks at the defensemen dressing for the Avalanche through four games, and it does not look like an impressive group.  Andre Benoit, who leads the club in average ice time with more than 22 minutes a game, had just 41 games of NHL experience coming into this season at age 29.  Jan Hejda, a 35-year old in his eighth season, is a serviceable type, but he is getting almost 22 minutes a night.  Cory Sarich, also 35 years old, missed 79 games in the six seasons leading up to this one, including 20 games in each of the past two seasons.  Nate Guenin had 32 games of experience over parts of six seasons with four teams before landing in Colorado this season. Tyson Barrie is another Avs defenseman with little to show for experience – 42 games in parts of two seasons with Colorado before this season.  Only Erik Johnson appears to have a solid pedigree, but even he – a first overall draft pick in 2006 – is not the defensemen folks might have envisioned when he was drafted.  This is the soft underbelly of the club that the Caps need to probe and pressure to keep those speedy forwards from working their magic.

The Caps did a decent job here.  But it was uneven.  They did a pretty good job along the boards and behind the Colorado net to force the defense into decisions, but they did not do such a great job making the Colorado defense defend their net.  That is where the failure to take advantage of rebounds did the Caps in.

Other stuff…

--  The Caps are now without a goal on their last nine power plays.  Colorado played what amounted to a “triangle and one,” defending the strong side of the ice (with Nicklas Backstrom and Mikail Grabovski on the same side) with three defenders and putting a defenseman man-on-man with Alex Ovechkin.  This allowed the Caps to run the occasional back-door timing play with Ovechkin darting behind the defenseman to the net, but none were converted.  Ovechkin did not have a power play shot on goal.

--  For the second game in a row, the Caps allowed an opponent to score his first NHL goal.  Tonight it was Nathan MacKinnon, who slipped into a seam in the Caps defense in close and converted a feed from Paul Stastny.  For those of you wondering, Will Acton of the Edmonton Oilers (the Caps’ next opponent) does not yet have an NHL goal.

--  Only one Capital finished the evening without a shot on goal – Martin Erat.  For the first time this season Erat skated ten minutes…exactly ten minutes.  Erat has now gone three games without a shot on goal and has only two in five games for the season.

-- Erat probably does not make it to ten minutes of ice time had he not led all Caps forwards in shorthanded ice time (2:06).

-- And speaking of ice time, who was it that led the Caps overall in shorthanded ice time?  The new kid.  No, not that one, the other one.  Alexander Urbom skated 3:22 on the penalty kill, tied with John Carlson.

-- As for the other new kid…no, the first one… Nate Schmidt skated almost 15 minutes (Martin Erat might be seething at that fact), had three shots on goal (five attempts), two hits, and a takeaway.  He was on ice only for Colorado’s last goal.  A solid debut, all things considered, but if Nate Schmidt -- less than a year removed from college hockey and with nine regular season games of AHL experience -- is the answer as a left-handed defenseman on the third pair, this team has problems.  But you knew that already.

--  Nicklas Backstrom finished a minus-3.  That is the first time he finished that poorly since November 26, 2011, when he finished minus-4 in, yes, a 5-1 loss, that one to the Buffalo Sabres.

--  The Mikhail Grabovski-Brooks Laich-Troy Brouwer line had nine even strength shots on goal tonight, but they still do not have a point as a line.  Grabovski’s only even strength goal came in the 6-4 loss to Chicago on opening night with Joel Ward and Jason Chimera on the ice as Caps forwards.

--  It’s probably just as well Tom Wilson was robbed twice by Varlamov at point blank range.  We would just as soon see Wilson get his first goal in a win…Monday night, we hope.

--  There might be those who will make something out the “Hunteresque” ice time Ovechkin got tonight—17:19 in all.  It was his lightest load of the season (the first time under 20 minutes).  However, it is not as if this hasn’t happened under head coach Adam Oates.  Ovechkin skated less time than what he had tonight twice last season.  Once was in a 6-5 win over the Florida Panthers in which he had a goal and an assist (16:53), the other in a 5-1 win over New Jersey in which he was 3-1-4 (16:40).  On five other occasions last season he skated less than 18 minutes.

--  There might be a reason for Ovechkin’s light ice time load.  The Caps had only two power plays.  Two more power plays, and he might have had 20-plus minutes.  And, he skated only six shifts in the third period, only two in the last ten minutes.  That’s what being behind by four goals will do.

--  Marcus Johansson had an excellent opportunity to bury a puck from the edge of the right wing circle early on and passed up the chance for one more pass.  That has to stop.  A winger on the top line with three shots on goal for the season (he had one tonight) is not a passenger.  He is baggage. 

--  Michal Neuvirth was beaten twice on the short side on shots where the shooter had only the short side to shoot at.  The Tanguay shorthanded goal from the goal line extended wasn’t a game breaker (it was sprinkles on top of the whipped cream on top of the Avalanche sundae), but it was disturbing for what seemed a lack of focus.

Last year, when the Caps reached the nadir of their season at 2-8-1, we had this to say…

In the end, the Caps are what they are.  They are not so much an opponent for teams as an annoyance.  They can’t score, can’t defend, and can’t stop pucks.  They score on the power play, but only when it doesn’t matter anymore.  Their only thing their penalty killing kills is any chance to win.  Their average goal margin in games is a staggering -1.46…

Through five games that goal differential is -1.60/game.  Not the worst (27^th), but the Caps can see it from where they sit.  They have been outscored, 15-6, at even strength.  At the moment this team does not look “experienced” as much as it looks “old,” especially in contrast to Colorado tonight.  And it will not get easier.  Monday’s opponent – Edmonton – has a speedy cadre of forwards that could make things as difficult on the Caps as the Avalanche did tonight.

Washington Capitals: Colleagues Moving On

When you reach a certain age in life, you start taking notice of retirements of friends and colleagues.  It might be true for an athlete as he inches into his mid or late 30’s; it might be true for an office worker who has passed into his 60’s.  Strangely, it might be just as true for a blogger who has been around for something pushing ten years. 

We say this having noted (a bit late, we know) the semi-retirement of “On Frozen Blog,” one of the first-generation of Washington Capitals’ blogs and one of its most reliably stimulating.  Since “OFB” went live in October 2006,  it provided Caps fans with a unique stream of analysis and commentary, while channeling what was important to Caps fans as the club climbed back to competitiveness to provide thrills and disappointments along the way.  Their coverage of the 2007 IIHF World Championships in Russia is one of the best examples of fan-based… well, any-based reportage you’ll find in the Caps news archives.

We take note of their moving on because at some point it is going to happen to all of us who labor in this corner of the blogosphere.  The first generation of Caps bloggers – OFB, Japers’ Rink, Off Wing Opinion  -- have (and continue to) set a high bar for those who follow to clear.  Those who have joined the game since should take note.

We’ll miss the clinking beer glasses after wins, the occasional rant after a loss, and everything in-between.  Best of luck, guys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 5: Avalanche at Capitals, October 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The last time that the Colorado Avalanche paid a visit to Washington D.C., the Federal government was open, HBO was in town, and the Caps were in the midst of what would be an eight-game losing streak.  It was December 11, 2010, when the Avs came to town, and the visitors skated away with a 3-2 win that sent the Caps to their fifth straight loss in that streak. 

But if you want to know where this series is a bit strange, here is a tidbit.  The last time a Capital currently with the club scored a goal against the Avalanche was way back on December 15, 2009 (yes, these teams play infrequently).  It was a 6-1 win for the Capitals in Denver, and Nicklas Backstrom scored the sixth goal for the Caps on a power play late in the contest.  Including that game, the Caps scored nine goals over three games with the Avs (the 2009 game being the only win).  Tomas Fleischmann and Mike Knuble had two goals apiece; while David Steckel, Matt Bradley, Alexander Semin, and Matt Hendricks each had a goal, in addition to Backstrom’s.

Oh, how things change.

The biggest change for the Avalanche this season might be behind their bench.  Patrick Roy takes over for Joe Sacco, who posted a 130-134-30 record over four seasons.  Roy brings no previous NHL coaching experience to his new job, either as a head coach or an assistant, but he did spend eight seasons as head coach and general manager of the Quebec Remparts of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.  In those eight seasons he posted a 349-159-37 regular record and took the Remparts to the playoffs in each of those eight seasons.

Perhaps it is fitting that the former Canadian junior coach leads this team, and not just because he won two Stanley Cups in seven-plus seasons with the Avalanche.  If you look at what is arguably the “core” for this team, it is very young.  Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Nathan MacKinnon, and captain Gabriel Landeskog are all 22 or younger.  Semyon Varlamov, the former Capital manning the number one goalie spot for Colorado, is still only 25 years old.

Here is how the numbers shake out from last season for the two teams…

1.  Four wins is four wins, but are the Avalanche doing it with mirrors?  They have allowed only three goals through four games, shutting out mighty Boston on Thursday, but they are allowing 32.5 shots per game.  Only seven teams are allowing more, and those teams have 12 combined wins in 29 combined games, through Thursday’s contests.  And, speaking of that core of players, Landeskog and MacKinnon have brutal Corsi/on-ice numbers at 5-on-5 (numbers: behindthenet.ca).  So, too, do PA Parenteau and Alex Tanguay, two primarily offensive players.

2.  Semyon Varlamov has won three games with a goals against average of 1.00 (tied for fourth among goalies) and a save percentage of .967 (fourth).  He’s been here before, though, in his first-three game segments:

• 2008-2009: 2-0-0 (one no decision), 1.63, .943
• 2011-2012: 2-1-0, 1.30, .960, one shutout
• 2012-2013: 2-1-0, 1.68, .948, one shutout 

His “game four” record over his career is a bit more pedestrian.  He has a 4-1-0 record in those games, but he also has an unremarkable 2.69 goals against average and a .906 save percentage.  Much discussion in the early going centers on his being watched over by new goalie coach François Allaire, who mentored Roy and Varlamov’s teammate, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, but the question remains, has he turned a corner, or will he return to form?

3.  Here is one way Colorado achieved their 4-0-0 record, reflected in a number: 2:37.  That is the total amount of time the Avalanche have spent trailing in games so far this season, all of it in their 2-1 win over Toronto last Tuesday.  They are one of two teams yet to allow a first period goal (Pittsburgh is the other).  They play very well from in front.

4.  Colorado has spread things around on offense.  Eight players share the 13 goals scored to date (Parenteau leads with three), and 16 skaters have points (four players with four points).  Not a single skater is in “minus” territory (Landeskog is “even”).

5.  The 2009 draft class was good to Colorado.  Two of the top four point scorers from that class are Avs – Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly.

1.  Marcus Johansson’s next point will be his 100^th.  He is fifth among players in that 2009 draft class in career points (Duchene, O’Reilly, John Tavares, and Evander Kane).

2.  Speaking of points, a two-point night would get John Carlson to 100.  Of defensemen breaking into the league in the 2009-2010 season, Carlson would become the sixth defenseman of that class to reach 100 points (P.K. Subban, Tyler Myers, Erik Karlsson, Michael Del Zotto, and Cody Franson being the others).

3.  Let’s say Jason Chimera has a three-point game.  Let’s just say… if he does, he will reach 100 points as a Capital.  He’s already way ahead of last year on one respect.  He scored his first goal of the season against Carolina on Thursday.  Last season he did not record his first goal of the year until his 28^th game.

4.  The Caps are third on the power play, sixth in faceoff winning percentage, ninth in shots on goal per game.  They are tied for 23^rd in ratio of goals for to goals against at 5-on-5, tied for 21^st in shots allowed per game, only three teams have allowed more first period goals, and only Edmonton (0-3-0) has a worse record than the Caps when scoring first (0-2-0).

5.  The Caps have held leads on four separate occasions in four games.  On average they have held it nine minutes.  Three times they held it for less than four minutes.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Nathan MacKinnon

The first overall pick in the 2013 entry draft has not disappointed.  He is third among rookies in points despite his being only 11^th among rookie forwards in average ice time.  What might be his strangest statistic in the early going is that he has been on ice for each of the three goals allowed by the Avalanche, the only Colorado player of whom that could be said.  The thing to watch for, in addition to MacKinnon’s early tendency to be in the vicinity when goals are scored on the Avs, is that he has not yet recorded his first NHL goal.  After the Caps allowed Elias Lindholm to get his in Carolina’s win on Thursday, this could be a good week for 2013 draft picks at the Caps’ expense.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich is the second line left wing.  He has not been on the ice for any of the 11 goals scored by the Caps.  Not the stuff of a scoring line winger.  He has been on for three even strength goals against.  That is not “third line” bad (Jason Chimera, Joel Ward, and Eric Fehr have been on ice for at least six even strength goals against), but it is a bit disturbing.  The odd point about his offense is that Laich is usually a fast starter.  This is the longest he has gone without a point to start the season since 2006-2007 when he went his first 16 games without a point.  Since then, over his past six seasons coming into this one he was 8-10-18 in his first four game segments.

Keys:

1.  Pace.  Colorado is a speedy team.  If the Caps allow them to gather speed through the neutral zone, they are going to be in for a world of hurt.  And here is how that plays out.  Six teams have a ratio of goals scored to goals against at 5-on-5 of 2.00:1 or better.  Those teams have a combined record of 18-2-2.  Colorado is one of those teams.  Seven teams have a ratio of 0.50:1 or worse.  Those teams, Washington among them, have a combined record of 8-22-1.  It is hard to think of this as coincidence (all numbers and records through Thursday games).

2.  Patience.  The Caps are the mature team, now.  Colorado are the young whippersnappers.  With that maturity, one hopes that the Caps understand that the game is 60 minutes, and it is their depth and experience that could suit them well while the Avs might be running around like puppies in search of snausages early.  That requires discipline and playing the game to their tempo for longer stretches than the Avalanche play to theirs.

3.  Pressure.  One looks at the defensemen dressing for the Avalanche through four games, and it does not look like an impressive group.  Andre Benoit, who leads the club in average ice time with more than 22 minutes a game, had just 41 games of NHL experience coming into this season at age 29.  Jan Hejda, a 35-year old in his eighth season, is a serviceable type, but he is getting almost 22 minutes a night.  Cory Sarich, also 35 years old, missed 79 games in the six seasons leading up to this one, including 20 games in each of the past two seasons.  Nate Guenin had 32 games of experience over parts of six seasons with four teams before landing in Colorado this season. Tyson Barrie is another Avs defenseman with little to show for experience – 42 games in parts of two seasons with Colorado before this season.  Only Erik Johnson appears to have a solid pedigree, but even he – a first overall draft pick in 2006 – is not the defensemen folks might have envisioned when he was drafted.  This is the soft underbelly of the club that the Caps need to probe and pressure to keep those speedy forwards from working their magic.

In the end…

This is going to be a game of contrasting styles – old versus young, deliberate versus sprightly, technical versus mercurial.  The decision might not hinge on Colorado trying to impose its will on the Caps, especially early, but how the Caps deal with that.  And that is where pace, patience, and pressure will matter for the Caps as they try to get out of their early-season funk, especially at even strength.  If anything, it will be entertaining, perhaps even behind the bench…

Capitals 4 – Avalanche 3

Washington Capitals: A NO-point night -- Game 4: Hurricanes 3 - Capitals 2

It certainly was not pretty.  It really was not ugly, either.  It was more of a big fat “meh” at Verizon Center as the Washington Capitals dropped a 3-2 decision to the Carolina Hurricanes this evening.

Having four days off showed for the Caps, who looked good at times, especially early, but who looked stale and discombobulated over long stretches of the contest.  It was enough for the Hurricanes to hang around, not letting the Caps get out of reach after the Caps twice took one-goal leads.  The first came in the game’s sixth minute when Jason Chimera chased down a puck near the left wing wall in the Carolina zone and in one motion turned and whipped a shot past defenseman Ryan Murphy and through the pads of goalie Anton Khudobin.

That was how the first period would end, but Elias Lindholm tied the game mid-way through the second period with his first NHL goal, a rocket…well, that’s how it will be described years from now… OK, a wrist shot from near the blue line that appeared to nick Tom Wilson, then John Carlson before tumbling over goalie Braden Holtby’s left pad on the far side.

Just less than a minute later it was Washington’s turn to have a puck change direction and find its way to the back of the net, Alex Ovechkin tipping a Steve Oleksy drive down and bouncing it past Khudobin’s right pad to restore the Caps’ one-goal lead.  Carolina completed what passed for a flurry of goals in the contest two and a half minutes later when Alexander Semin pulled one out of the Capitals’ play book on a 5-on-3 power play.  Lindholm tied up Nicklas Backstrom enough on a faceoff to Holtby’s left, allowing Jeff Skinner to jump in and slide the puck back to Eric Staal at the right point.  Staal sent the puck across to Semin at the top of the left wing faceoff circle where he let fly with a one-timer that beat Holtby to the short side.

Carolina took the lead for good in the seventh minute of the third period when the Caps were caught running around in their own end unable to move the puck out of trouble.  Holtby turned away a drive by Radek Dvorak and held off a bouncing puck on the rebound, but Nathan Gerbe snuck in on the left side and slipped the puck past Holtby for what would be the game-winning goal, sending the Caps to 1-3-0 on the young season.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps are now 0-for-4 in terms of winning games in regulation.  Last year they did the same (0-3-1).  It is a disturbing trend since the Caps had not gone their first four games without a win in regulation before that since the 2000-2001 season (0-3-2-1 through six games).

-- Don’t look now, but John Erskine has been on ice for the last five even-strength goals allowed by the Caps, dating back to the last even-strength goal scored by Calgary a week ago in a 5-4 Capitals shootout win.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s streak of games with a power play goal ended at three, denied a career best four straight games with a power play goal.

-- The Caps are now 0-2-0 in games in which they score first.

-- Mike Green did not record a shot on goal in 23-plus minutes.  It is only the second time in his last 82 games that he recorded no shots on goal in a game where he finished with at least 20 minutes of ice time.

-- The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson recorded 10 of the Capitals’ 32 shots on goal.  That’s the good part. The not so good is that Ovechkin had eight of them. 

-- The second line of Brooks Laich, Mikhail Grabovski, and Troy Brouwer had four shots on goal for the night, only two after the first period (both by Laich).

-- The fourth line of Martin Erat, Michael Latta, and Tom Wilson had no shots on goal.  Not only that, they did not have a single shot attempt.

-- If Tom Wilson gets two shifts and 1:23 of ice time in a tied/one-goal game in the third period (none in the last 13 minutes after he was on ice for the game-winning goal), what is he doing here?

-- From the “not what it seemed” file… the Caps were unsuccessful on five power plays.  That is the first time the Caps went oh-fer on five or more power plays since they went 0-for-5 against Philadelphia last February 1^st.  They had a streak of seven straight instances broken in which they scored at least one power play goal on five or more chances.  But here’s the thing… those five power plays consumed a total of 6:01, not the ten minutes five unsuccessful power plays would have consumed had they been full power plays.

-- Alexander Semin still got it.  Oh, yeah, the power play shot, sure.  But it was pure Semin to see him go into full flail and open-mouthed silent scream a moment before he was actually hit by Alex Ovechkin on a coincidental penalty late in the contest.

-- That was the first time the Caps lost a one-goal decision to Carolina at home since February 2008.

In the end, the best thing that can be said about this game is that it’s over.  The Caps were not terrible, although they did have terrible moments (the game-winning goal, for instance).  They had decent moments, but hardly put together stretches of play that rose to the level of decent, especially after the first period.  Some of that was Carolina playing a safe, chip the puck along, take the local bus kind of game (they had only 52 shot attempts in 60 minutes). But the Caps didn’t help themselves and now have three goals in their last two games and only five even strength goals in four games.  They have yet to win at all in the “hockey” portion of games (their lone win coming in the Gimmick).  That won’t get it done.  It wouldn’t even get it done in the old Southeast Division, and it should not escape notice that Carolina used to be a Southeast Division team, too.

Washington Capitals: When I dream

I came upon this picture on Twitter and thought to myself, this is what a Capitals Stanley Cup parade should look like...

...if they ever have one, that is.